There's your hot take slot machine right. There told the lever my hot take is at the democratic primary has been pretty boring so far, hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen Druke, and this Thursday is the first debate when the buying for the presidential nomination will share a single stage, all ten of the ones who made that debate stage. We spent some time last week discussing the strategies for the top three candidates, but this debate is also an important opportunity for the lower tier candidates. Try to gain some traction, so we're going to discuss what the strategies might be an here with me to do that. Our editor in chief Nate Silver how's. It going going well also here with US senior politics, writer Clare Malone. How are you I'm good Galen? How are you good good at managing editor, Michael Cohen? How are you I'm good? You always deflate wait when get to man and I feel bad about it

and managing editor, Michael I'm just coming to the end of like a tree lined up it's like a crescendo, Inadi Christian in here, the decrease Nate Clare Micah. We save the best for last around here on the five hundred and thirty politics. Podcast, ok, never mind we're going to sing. No. I think I would like to start Monday Monday with you it's too early and the problem is like now it's after Labor Day, like a lot of it going stuff going on, and you can't wear white. Underweight big were all wearing blue but, like I had to, we do a lot of work this weekend we are all wearing blue, which, if you are watching this on the ABC News, live feed. You already know you're listening to this as a podcast, you didn't know, which is a shout out to the fact that we are on the ABC News, live feed on Tuesdays. So anybody listen to this podcast who won

you go check that out these disembodied voices become real people for better or for worse. Anyway, let's begin with the democratic primary debate. It's on Thursday, at eight hundred o'clock eastern hosted, of course, by our friends at ABC, and, as I mentioned, we spent time last week talking about how Biden, Warren and Sanders might position themselves in relation to each other. So, today we're going to focus first on the other seven candidates, although we will get to Biden, Sanders and Warren at the end and the way we're going to do this, I'm going to have a little bit of fun going around the table and I will give Nate, Claire or Micah a candidate and the to assign them a strategy based on how they're doing in the race went up sides. They have etc and will

want to hear what the candidates main opponent is their main ally and what their biggest risk factor could be in the debate. Right have some fun. I like out of this is our definition of fun in all right neat. You are first yet spend the we all. I don't know that. That's not the sign! Now it's an ex I've already actually, and it is Crypto Bichar Club, a char, char char. You get Senator AB closure from Minnesota. What is her strategy going into Thursday's debate to be a bit blunt? It's to not suck. I think, let's get a little deeper than that analysis tag. Analysis: journalists, I think she's one of the candidates who has not had a strong debate yet which in a sense,

good news because she hasn't dated in the poll, so at least we haven't tested the proposition and what happens to global chart. If she has a strong debate um her campaign, I wrote the club a chart introductory piece when she entered the race. This spring thought the debate to be a big strength for her. She um. Why? Because? Well, it's probably thinks in pain, say, but you know their fear. The case was that there care is that number one she is funny and that can translate well in debate and number two she's sit Oriel. You know who else people said was funny in private Hillary Clinton, but Hillary pretty good in the debates right. If Amy Klobuchar had put in the debating skill, then so I think just having more of a presence. I think it may be more assertively. I mean her path is like relatively straightforward right. Her path probably involves by imploding and voters, who want a more moderate, more electable alternative, deciding that she needs to be drafted to be that person,

and it probably also heavily involves Iowa, which is the uh for campaign, should have cheese from a neighboring state. Maybe she's the one should adopt the past the torch slogan. She should go after bite in explicitly on age. I think that's the strategy, so let her main opponent is, does she have a main ally on the stage? Well, one of the issues for club Achaar that she's one of the more plausible vice presidential nominees and it does like. Maybe she is someone who is playing that angle a little bit. I think all the women are perspective. Vice presidential sure, I think- and I think a lot of people want a woman on the ticket. So that's probably right. I don't actually think closure has a lot of allies. I think she has competition Biden, but she doesn't have the strength with black voters. That Biden has so she has to sort of make a more into like general election argument right to the to the White Moderates base and that's what she has going so maybe she'll end up being like the Delaney of the debate. Maybe

you could draft in a sense of like moderate focal matter, but maybe she could draft booty judge in terms of allies into a generational change argument and in that sense kind of, although she's not young, I mean, like you, know it's not as youngest booty judge, but she has more of an air of youth about her than Biden, but what she she's going to say: PETE boot engine I or the young faces nonetheless she's, she's gonna, say hello. Really, this is a really difficult gala. I well I'm just imagining it maybe unbeknownst to p, but it's just like if clovers are we're on stage to be like people to judge, and I and all of a sudden it like a hammer he's like wait, what they know, she would say she would say: listen. I have a lot of respect for the

is president and I happen to agree with them that some of the plans offered by my colleagues here are far fetched an unrealistic and blah blah blah blah blah. But I think that, as repeat, has said something something: generational change, something something you want her to draft off of PETE. I want her to go after Bidin on electability grounds using age. I think that's the best play for her and I think in terms of like who could be an ally in that mission, I think she could draft PETE Aurora the younger candidates and all of a sudden, if there's a pass, the torch conversation. I think that plays to her advantage in hurting Piden. Even if she's not like the face of generation z, you know all right. Thank you know, glam alone, you are next and

scaling joke. Who do I have you have Houliang Castro Lian Castro? What should he do? Question Mark Space space ice double spaces. I think Castro should keep doing what he's been doing in the debates, which is, namely to continue to be a almost like substantive pillar of the debates, someone who is a little bit attack dog in surprising ways. I mean the last debate. I think he was a really notable, somewhat surprising player for kind of go after the Obama administration, in the sense of like coming from the sort of principled, progressive, left position and saying listen. I was a member of this administration, but I don't agree with everything that they did and I'm here to show you that I'm smart and more competent than say better work and maybe kind of pick off. Some of these other people who are also low in the polls, maybe try to get to the level of like Cory Booker in the

level of conversation that the american public in the media are having. You mentioned that farmers are may be gunning for v p, because people would like to see a woman on the ticket, but, of course, there's opportunities for a woman to be at the top of the ticket right. So is Castro also in a similar position of club which are in into being VP? I think that Warren and Castro have sort of been talked about as people who have like there personally, who see to be on the same policy wavelength people made sort of a hilarious big deal about like who's texting, whom do like good job who's, getting like the hug or the handshake on stage, and people have sort of been noticing that Warren Astro seem to have a friendly relationship. So I think you could possibly say that, like if Warren becomes that money, she might really like Castro and, if not, you know, VP, then certainly somewhere in her administration.

Astra feels like Warren Single, most likely VP pick right, well it just like inside your gut or for the or for the reporting, just based on the reasons just based on the Texas in play. Right, I mean okay, so let's say right: I am a wealthy. He tony in donor, I said it all you have to do is move to Houston and stuff. My journalist and we've got something going here. My family made money from oil or something but I'm doing philanthropic work right, funding, ballet funding ballet, and I call you and your colon's campaign manager and I'm like okay. Well, look. I thought he was greeted Bates. Why would you keep doing the same thing? You're doing you're still stuck at one percent in the polls. Why didn't bump up in the polls after the his favorability rating building, but not the horse race number, so you're, making argument against Claire's position that he should stick with the I mean in some sense. I have very similar advice for all

minor candidates. Minor is a derogatory term, but all the candidates who are not thinking in the more robust range in the polls right now, which is like there is more competition on the LE then in the moderate lane, sing that moderate verse left is just of several vectors, that's relevant in the primary, not the most important one necessarily, but I do wonder if, like Castro, should also be trying to position himself. A little bit more like not so trying to in the less crowded moderately, not trying to out everyone but being like I'm business friendly, I'm very electable, of course, I'm very progressive. I get what you're saying his issue has been immigration, and I feel like it's hard right now to do like moderate steak on immigration. Right now in the Democratic Party ends up being this wonky abstruse thing

people are like, but don't you have a problem with the morality of the Trump Administration's policies and it's sort of like you would get messy to me. I not necessarily seeing the place where Helene caster naturally goes into the moderate lane. Yeah I mean he came out swinging in favor of de criminalized crossing the border. It feels weird to go for and like got in an argument with a work in the first debate over his more moderate stance feels weird to then go. It would be like okay, I'm kind of a moderate now but well hard in on, because there a lot of Democrats. Democratic impact are like, but if you go hard in on to the left on immigration and race, but you're more moderate on, like like he supports Medicare for all castor, does endorse Medicare for all, so he'd have to do like the Harris, pivot, basically, basically hasn't, which has worked so far, but also Castro. He just doesn't have like an obvious constituency when you look at him. Hispanic look at the one. Can Spanish, ok, but if we're talking about polish, yes, correct Hispanics, but we're looking at it like the

coalition building model, whose other natural constituency I mean, if we were to Castro, becomes a nominee and we're kind of playing back how it happened, I mean I think you would first get your foothold with Hispanics, which is like fifteen percent of the electorate and then all the sudden, maybe you're at six percent in holes. And then you know with the third the hispanic grow and then you get kind of game from there and you look more viable and moderates peel off and say: hey I want to in Texas, and some liberals are like hey. I really think immigration salient issues and here's battle think he's electable say like I agree with you that that's the natural constituency Hispanics in that that's how he builds his foothold. But maybe this says something about the current state of like democratic politics. Hispanics are getting more powerful as a block within the party, but they're still not the like for lack of a better word like king make of the party right. There's not this whole concerted effort to oh in two hispanic. All the candidates go through this one,

Tino Community place like a church or whatever the same way that, like the black vote, quote unquote like in certain states. It's really there are certain stops that all the candidates go to their power brokers that are recognized, think that that doesn't really exist in the highly like refined way that it does in the black community. Let's say in Like South Carolina and that's probably a thing works against Castro Challenge, which gets us to the next person on the list. Is that currently latino Democrats in Texas at least favorite or work over Castro? So, like you are up next with a work, what is his strategy for the third debate on Thursday? I think if you're them you're, probably thinking okay, we just had this campaign reset where there really focused on Trump and really focused on issues of racial justice, immigration gun.

This debate is really our chance to kind of roll that out in a big way, and so I would expect him to appear in Houston and just hammer. Those issues do, I think, that'll work, not especially why not, because it hasn't worked so far right so one. I think the reset is like more in name that in practice, which is to say or work, was talking about these issues before the shooting in El Paso. Moreover, the tragedy- Al Paso, it's like kind of crass to say, but it presented an opportunity for a work in that the spotlight was on him. Yeah I mean I would go one slash two step more crass and be like this. Is the sort of opportunity didn't get that often that there is a terrible thing in your hometown? That thematically ties to issues that you tend to emphasize and he got a fairly big boost to me

attention. Maybe it was late summer, people more paying attention, I mean agree. His best bet is to see if I can consolidate that into something. A lot of these candidates are running everyone, who's not biting her Bernie has been really trying to appeal to college, educated, liberals or college educated white liberals, especially, and it's a very crowded market in part, because there a lot of strong candidates in that domain, most notably Warren, but also that's Harrison and to church, and whatever else you know, Beto two. I fell into that. Try again, like you know, I think, Warren Kind of one derby, at least for now, at least for the summer. Maybe the follow be different. So let's move on and talk about some of the other larger candidates, but first today's podcast is brought to you by bespoke post when you're constantly on the grinding away at the office or hang out with friends, there's not much time to think about upgrading your style or apartment. That's why there's the Box of awesome from bespoke post every

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sleep temper is an entire month dedicated to rest and relaxation from outrageously comfortable award bring mattress is to pillows sheets and duvets. Casper is transforming the way we sleep. Casper mattress gives the perfect balance of comfort and support. While you sleep, there are four layers of premium foam that are designed to provide pressure, relief for all night comfort with betting bed frames and even dog beds. Casper has everything you need to build the bed of your dreams, sleep, cool and comfortable. Every night, Casper try yours for one hundred nights with free shipping and returns, go to Casper DOT, com, slash politics and use code politics for one hundred dollars towards the purchase of select mattress is that's casper, dot, com, slash politics and use code politics for one hundred dollars towards the purchase, select, mattresses terms and conditions, apply, see Casper DOT, com, slash terms, alright, we're back, and we are moving on to the next candidate in line more or less in the polls, and that is Cory. Booker and neat you've got marker. I

preview this before, but I think Booker has to think of cannot safe alternative Biden implodes. I think he might also have to think about. Is there a way that I can camel Harris and become the first or second choice? That's not Biden for black voters. You know I don't know quite how he does that it's a difficult needle, threading again and he's someone who might be frustrated that he has been like from start to finish one of the stronger performers in the debates. So far, if Harris is a bad debate, she's pretty good debater, so she probably won't. But if Harris is a bad debate there already a lot of stories, I think justifiably being like what you dropped from eighteen percent to seven percent in the polls in her fundraising numbers seems to be not very good, but you can imagine like a narrative or people like well, price is kind of toast, but it it really makes sense to have three old white people for the nomination and Booker

is kind of the next most viable. So let's elevate him to the next tier, like that's, not crazy, yeah. I don't know, I think what makes Booker viable is doing well in Iowa or New Hampshire, because he can prove he's yet they already have in roads and saying like I us senator on the former mayor of a struggling city. That is largely black. I am a black man, so I can connect on that level with the turning innately. But if I win in White States like Iowa and New Hampshire, then I proven electability argument, which is: I can build a coalition of white establishment people in those states plus a black vote that the coalition yeah ones aren't real keen on biting his problems there, and so any and Booker is supposed to be decent on the stump and so yeah. It would be kind of going toe Iowa, I think and being like hey look. Aren't you a little scared of of Warren and Bernie not to not to everyone a lot of islands, love born in Bernie, but to those that don't to kind of say

you know it's the same thing that club Achaar is doing basically for a lot of people of the open lane. That is least crowded. Is the Middle Lane and Biden taking up all space, but he sort of an interesting like not Woon did frontrunner, but potentially Woon did front row. No. I think that I think I think the dividing line in the primary is like people who have a chance and people who have a chance only Lee if Biden collapses, and I think bookers in the second half only having a chance of this. I yes, I think so yeah, even though I agree with everything I said about, like I think he's had good debate, I think he's going on the stump. He has a. He has a good resume, but, like yeah I mean, I think, he's hope in September September. Ninth, I think a lot of people in there who want the next three months to be really problematic for Joe Biden but they're they're kind of like a lot of people will say like well you're running out of time. Right, like you, have to have a stab lish, endorsements and field organizations on the ground. In addition to hoping that Joe,

it has a really bad three months. So there was that article I think was today or yes about this idea- that a lot of campaigns think Biden is a paper tiger and their there usually essentially amounts to Biden collapses, and then we do- and you were pushing back on that, but were you pushing back because Think Biden is a strong front? Runner mean? I think it shouldn't be that hard to come by not doing that. Well he's at twenty five percent in Iowa. If your campaign can't get a quart electorate, maybe your candidates, the problem with non biden- I mean- maybe it's like, I guess, almost like a Hillary versus Trump straight in the base which is trying to antagonize them. Maybe just wanna like forced Biden, to work hard during the it's, and you want to force him to have a risk, stumble or a gaffe right and just challenge him 'cause, it's kind of a even reverse Goliath strategy. A lot of candles would benefit. I mean almost everyone would benefit. If Biden were to obviously stumble debate, that's not inviting!

Well! You know to some extent, like just yeah. I just kind of take. Take your ni. Might look kind of bad and there are scenarios where that word owns to Biden's benefit because he'll look like he's taking incoming fire and handling it. Well I mean: do you think, that's just the dynamic we will see on Thursday. Like everyone attack Biden? Yes, it should be yeah. Could everyone better? Well, everyone benefits from it. Almost everyone yeah like if you're benefit, Bernie, Bernie Bernie Warren, is may be happy enough to have of oil. Warren doesn't need to and like other people, the pressure that doesn't mean to, but we just said that there are very these candidates who should be vying for the moderate vote or the moderate lane. So wouldn't it make sense for those people to attack Sanders Warren in order to establish who they aren't. I mean you attack, Aiden, on being old and out of touch

when you attack Warren and Bernie for being too far left right because that's like, if you do listen to democratic voters, I don't want to bring in into many in real life conversations. We talked like older, democratic friends of yours. Do here that sort of rationale, then I'm not thrilled with Biden but like I'm, not sure if warranted they can win, and I wish there were some alternative and I, like me, repeat button here, people like that who is this, for I don't know it's not anyone in particular composite here I mean it's something that Perry has talked about repeatedly when he's on the side like we want dude who's, not a socialist. So exactly the way you can be Trump ABC News, Slash Washington, Post poll they asked kind of which great you think would have the best chance of beating Trump Buyten's. Here's weren't dent at all. It was still considered the most electable by like forty or something percent orders. That would worry me a lot if I were the candidate is part of. I do wonder if everyone gangs up on Biden, then to some extent, makes you

like a front runner makes you look like you're a threat if they're kind of yeah Biden just to moderate okay, unlike endorsement his electability in some ways, you have to be kind of it. Yes, we kind of careful here to like make it personal as I well. I think that I think that up I mean age is a lot of it right, I don't know just call names. I heard from lot of voters that people didn't like it when other candidates ganged up on Biden so like is also the argument of come on guys, keep it civil. I mean, don't be so cruel, it's a primary. I think it's two fold: it's people don't want to see a lot of in fighting in their primary because they want to be Trump and also. I just think a lot of people know Joe Biden Like had a and have a relationship with Joe Biden and they don't like it when people that they perceive as newbies come after him. I think you're right in general that a lot of the people watching the bay and voting in these primaries or party people almost by definition, they don't like to see the party fight they want to put

party till you beat unified. At the same time, I think, if you're a lot of these kind of to have to take the risk again, that the can a tooth have a path to victory with Biden at the thirty five percent or somewhere in there or Warren Sanders. Don't you know Harrison Harrison Furious. She has a high upside in her cold Paris, but not really everybody else it yet go on. The hair is, I think, is competing because of the black vote. She is competing more kind of directly, for I mean she seems have the biggest like one on one trade. We saw that in the polling. We did last time. It was that the first there's a big flow of voters from Biden to Harris then gradually reversed itself, but clearly I can. This is their of certain groups of voters who were kind of think of those two is interesting. Alright, so let's really sort of fly through these final minor candidates, and then we will get to our top three and we can

whether or not there is a top three but Claire. You are up next with Buddha Judge. Well, as previously stated, I think Michael was right that Amy, Kobach are and PETE Boo Digit should paint themselves as the voice of Generation Z what if they announce their ticket the teeny bopper ticket, the cruise fear in a play. No, I think, that's like that is did you just probably the he wins is having a really good performance and I new Hampshire. I think that those are places where he's most likely to be able to make a dent in those very white states. The place where he needs improvement is with black voters. He was on, like the breakfast club a couple days ago, which is a New York like Hip Hop radio show that has become kind of a stopping off point for candidates. He talked about his.

He calls it the Douglas Planets, like his version of reparations or his idea of, like fixing wealth inequality in America for African Americans. So he's obviously trying to make inroads with that, and I would guess that he will try to talk about that plan as much as possible on the late stage on Thursday, because that is his weak point. Obviously, some of that is just do the fact that he's a guy from Indiana, but it's compounded by the fact that his police department has has had some problems with racialized policing or allegations up. What, if I were to play devil's advocate for change and say that I don't think people to touch should worry very much about the black vote yet because his path to the nominee involves winning, or at least coming a very close second in Iowa they're, not many black Iowa. Yes, yes, you know as a as a what yeah it's a sequential yeah, maybe just

after like, like maybe the national media. Doesn't it come off as disingenuous? If you haven't mentioned your plan for Black America until the S like the debate right before the South Carolina primary speaking from the lake of the law of continuity, isn't it best to sort of get that it that you're not just performing for the next primary contest? February's whites primary I'm just saying that he's not a terra likely nominee, although maybe the fifth most likely, I guess but like I have to go all in on Iowa 'cause. That's a scenario where I mean it's plausable like if you told me, booty touch one Iowa like that's not that crazy. I feel there is also like a little Ella in the room which is like there are a decent minority of democratic voters who are not comfortable, currently voting for a gay man or a lesbian that we don't talk about that. The Democrats are so progressive right, but like look at polls and people, don't always aren't always honest stuff in Paul's, even in polls like a minority that might limit

number of voters in his universe, especially among groups that are more or less college educated, whatever else right, and so I think his issues with black vote, who historically are more conservative on gay, it's might have a much do with that is like with is with the police situation in South Bend well, and also how what is how much is sexual. His sexuality I am in Iowa in particular, is a super interesting question, because on the one hand, I would be a place where you would expect the kind like, but a judge to do really well right. Progressive progress, save young that kind of optimistic message in the way Obama Did- and you know- and it's a super white electorate to write to to your. But on the other hand it's also like had has this more kind of like working class progressive, populist, vibe there. I also was one of the first states through its course I believed to legalize gay marriage. I mean look, I think when

he had this moment and what was it was a live podcast where they were like. Oh my God, PETE Buddha when Murphy at this moment, where he like kind of rose, all the sudden from like two percent to ten percent in the falls down to five percent or whatever right. My impression of that was partly based on Democrats. I think, is kind of this underdog story right with a small town, game error and the Gate Park is part of it. You know all the sudden is like on the big national stage going to outflank all these big famous names right. I think he has to kind of somehow like capture a little so that you know I think he may be, because a the underdog factor probably helps him and be. He has plenty of money. So he's not worried about like running out of oxygen. He is the one candidate who I think, probably actually be a little bit conservative and as a need to like win anything yeah. The the the optimist case for bill judges, he kind of came out of no, where had this surge in the polls

has had a huge fund raising boost and has just started to kind of make big investments on the found in Iowa New Hampshire right. We got to move on and apart from the leader in the polls, the only remaining person left is Yang, and that goes to you Micah. What is his strategy? Gangs? Incentives in the debates are sort of weird, where in a lot of ways he's running as just an issue can in it universal basic income, but in the debate he hasn't like behaved really as a single issue can in it I don't know he hasn't, he hasn't really stood out in the debate. I think Yang should just kind of answer every question that comes to make it about universe, sort of income and Yang sort of around the internet. Then he is in the in the real world. I think lasts debate. I think it was. He had a really I think, resident line where he talked about the people who benefit the most from universal basic income are low.

The women who you know state with children or who are the primary caretakers of sick member, their family or the elderly, and I actually think it's a very compelling argument for him to make, and he should make it better and more often, because I think it cuts against the grain of his mail internet persona, Anet, CHI universalize. Is it and it takes it out of this? Oh here, just like weird, rich guy, who has a plan about giving us all money, and he should he should sort of make it well. This is what actually looks like day to day, and this is who we're trying to reward for their non salaried work that that help society move, and I think it's actually a quite compelling argument and he should pay it up and help, and his idea for the debate should be to make it a mainstream part of the the dialogue. So in some ways I would kind of maybe make the same arguments made with PETE, which is maybe he should play into his eccentricities a little bit more.

He along with Bernie toe. Can I ask to what end to win the presidency or to get his due because or Castro to play in the hispanic vote you have to like look if all the sudden you're at seven or eight percent in the polls, then people start taking a longer look at you right and he, along with Bernie. There actually is like gang supporters most entirely among people that voted for Bernie in two thousand and sixteen. He has the potential to turn out people, not in Braintech numbers in all probability right, but to turn out people who are engage and disillusioned with politics. You have a little bit of an issue. Where are women who stay at home? Not part of it are part of that. There's things. However, there is a lot of like Non College educated like women, white women right or that I remember talking to in two thousand and sixteen who really liked Sanders for that kind of. So I don't like. I don't necessarily were arguing different things like. Why would they not go for Warren right? I mean, I think, she's, two of the establishment, Bernie

Harris Or- and I mean like I would maybe this is the thing Trump did well. Is it like? He started with a smaller base and built from that. I just think all the candidates, if you're pulling under five percent and there's a five or ten percent, place the electrical potential to take half of or something then like it's easier than moving from being someone's fifth choice to their third choice. You're basically saying like lean into your internet persona and lean into those voters- and I'm saying there are other people to for him- your your message- probably resonates. You just wish you do after you get up to eighty percent, so the for percent in the polls, because, if you're, an eight percent that all of a sudden the media will take and then you're like. Actually I have a lot to say for everybody: there is power in draw people to the polls who don't typically vote and often younger white people who don't vote all that often necessarily, and so there is some

well there. I don't know also he is the only asian American. Oh I'm sorry. What come on Harris is also of south asian and Asian. Only the station on the stage- that's not insignificant. I do you think it can be easy. Take for granted that, like the fact that Andrew Yang is on stage is a big deal to some the asian community. Just it's a big deal for people in the gay community people to touches on stage right. I don't know, I think this: can it play into their identities a little bit more, all right, so we've gotten through some of the minor candidates. We haven't had an opportunity to talk about much recently to the leaders in the polls, but first today's podcast is brought to you by honey nine times out of ten it shopping online. It beats going to the store, but nine I have ten you're overpaying when you shop online, unless you use honey, honey is a free browser extent

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and of the ten candidates that are going to be on stage on Thursday. There are four remaining: those are Harris, Warren Sanders and Biden. We spent a lot of time last week talking about Biden, Sanders and Warren and how they will debate against each other. So first, let's talk about area, then we'll get to the other three NEAT Kamala Harris. What does she need to do on the stage on Thursday? The strength and weakness of Kamala Harris in General is that she is sort of in the midpoint of different parts, the democratic coalition you could he, on the one hand, her decide. I have to win back college educated Liberal is from Warren. On the other hand, you could say I have to win back black voters and some electability voters from I vitamin iron. I mean this maybe seems over simple, but like do more of in the first debate and less of a second debate, the first that you were more assertive and aggressive and kind of after no nonsense. The second debate, she was very subdued so because,

well, here's a question. She lost almost all of her advantage from the first debate by the time, the staff- that's true right, so why? What was that like? Why couldn't she maintain the you know? Eight percent? I don't mean in the polls. I think a lot of voters didn't like that. She did that. I think a lot of voters still find residence of Joe Biden. I think that Harris should play up her prosecutorial record. I think for her. She's got a lot of doors, friends from black power by curse and that's important, like she definitely has more than Booker and she's, basically competing with Biden for those things. I think she's another candidate, like Booker, who needs to prove that in win an Iowa or New Hampshire or in order to like broaden out the idea that she is the electable candidate in the kind of candidate who can beat Trump to me. That means she needs to be a little a little bit more. I'm the pragmatic person here. Yes, I was a prosecutor good.

You know she. She gave an interview to the times where she's basically saying it's good that I'm a process. You know, I know how to root it all out. She is leaning into it and I don't think that's a bad strategy for her ' 'cause. There are some voters who, like the idea of having that and it's more of an old school political idea, but- and you can you can talk about- need to clean up the White House after Trump. She could also make a saw. Her cell on Biden is again the kind of pass the torch men and I don't know she wants to like the three leading candidates by nation- are all old white people that seems kind of weird 'cause. You kind of start that with buying a little bit and then you know she's, like you know, I really respect with Joe was done by the block and then kind of digs a knife in right. You know: is there a way for her to appear tough, on the one hand, not related to Biden and currently find ways to softly go after spine voters? On the other hand, she also has a third problem, which is that she has a reputation

for being weathervane vane kind of flip flopping, and so it's, if you get their reputation it's hard to shed and it makes it harder for you to be flexible later on right. So if you look back at the scene in the first debate in the second debate, then a variety of things happened, one of which was that Elizabeth Warren was having a good period there and gained a few points I think, some of which came from Harris. I also think Harris came under pressure to be more substantive on, like policy and stuff bash, put out a health care plan that was kind of widely derided. She you gotta own, her policy positions. Why? Wouldn't she just say? I had a really bad second debate in the first debate. I went hard after Biden and it worked, but it didn't because she had to because right after the debate, she also had to kind of say like while my official stance is basically the same as Biden's on well, so that so that

goes to how do you explain why she lost that support, so that what one explanation, which is the kind of substance of what Harris did in the first debate, doesn't really matter what mattered was

she had. The headline moment of the debate got all the media attention and so, therefore, her support increased by fifty percent, just because people know who she was all of a sudden. So, if that's your explanation, then it's like okay, going hard after someone in the date isn't on its own and not off, because what you need is really that kinda headline moment right this you, unless you get something where the substance is better for you, then that's a fleeting high right right, like it'll go away, or she had this great moment of going after bite and voters liked what they saw. I were somebody's dead. That's why her support basically doubled and she kind of fumbled that moment and having to walk back in and having that kind of an another couple, awkward moments and if that's the case, in other words,

if you believe that she actually just kind of screwed up the aftermath of the debate, then I think her strategy should be to try again to have another big moment and this time handle it better. I also kind of wonder how the dynamic will be different with both Harris and Warren on stage, because I think they present two different vibes on. I think Warren is and of snappy happy on stage right, she'll she'll, Perry back, but it's kind of wolf. Shucks, I want to talk about the policy, whereas Harris does have a bit more of like a combative edge where she hasn't in at least the first debate, and I think you see that in like her Senate hearing stuff, so I'm kind of curious to see how that comes across on the same debate stage those two different options of like establishment, women on a debate stage, both poking at Biden.

We haven't the cases where we've had like two top tier women women on the same debate stage. It's going to be a super, interesting, five and that's times I've I bring up again because voters keep on bring it up, which is certain people didn't like it when Harris when after Biden, I do read that a little bit as gendered well, possibly yeah, it's. I think it's uh this option, but what I'm saying is like it could be like the age thing it can be. It can be a race thing. It can be a he's, my familiar face, who is this lady, but Warren? Very much disliked Biden historically and so like it'll, be interesting to see how she handles that and, if she's, if she's, trying to prove that she is like the electable person how she goes, you're buying Paris, no warning or are we just she's sort of assumed like a front runner thing where she kind of chides off Biden, sort of a good natured way, or did she go aft? I'm not sure I buy the premise that going

after buying triggered a backlash for Harris. She did go from like seven to sixteen and then some act like eleven. No, no! No. I don't think it's a triggered backlash. I think some people didn't like it, but those people didn't jump on board. Some well did like it. I mean I'm just saying: if we're looking at the history of polling, she could she did not fall all the way back to where she is now before the second debate. She lost a big chunk of it, but she was still like eleven and then she had this kind of bad second debate and then she's gone from eleven to seven. Harris needs to go for electability. Honestly, that's why I think she needs to do polls show most democratic voters. Care about beating Trump Harris is a coalitional candidate, so you can stand up, I didn't say, listen, I love Joe, and I love Elizabeth and I have a ton of respect for them, but this one too hot this ones to call

when the Goldilocks, because, if we're talking about like the refinement of the terms the debates were at debate, three people have already kind of like staked out their personalities. Little bit and staked out there like Medicare for all it and all that stuff, and so this debate does become Biden is still the frontrunner, but a frank kind of front runner. Crowded field warned slowly edging up. I think a lot of people need to make a left ability arguments and- and some of it does come down to you- here's the proof of like this policy, things that make me like to bowl, but also- and this where this is where I think the Warren Harris versus buying dynamic is interesting. It's the personality, it's the vibe. The only way to think it like big balls like leader, like what's that, what's that, what's the five digit putting out in CD? No, if if, if there, I t, B, D, o e

big over internet other women, and that's why I took that one- I think whether these stories of like bite him being a paper tiger, whether you think they're, true or not, a good debate performance by who a b b performance would go a long way towards common, is becoming just as Big Biden, big bite at big bite in performance, yeah yeah it like affable, exactly if you would just kind of like a calm affable, he did well in the second debate. I think there was this better. I I think there was like a weird I was watching CNN and the moment CNN came on afterwards and they were all like what a terrible performance by Biden. I wasn't lit weirded out by that. Yes, he's not the most, it wasn't that, but it wasn't- and I just found that striking, because everyone knows him- he just kind needs to be like affable and stop substantive and not confused text messages with websites and like

so maybe he doesn't even need to do that. 'cause people don't really seem to care. How long is how long is this debate long right, three hours, three hours on the schedule along time? The one argument I would make bring your red bull folks, the one argument I would make against the tough line Biden Crowd, which I think made it, makes like a tough on biting guy yeah. I mean it. I'm surprised that the conventional wisdom isn't more Teflon Bidwell you keep predicting, has become trump like now. I don't think that's true. I actually do think that's. There is like good thing going on what do mean by the CNN. There have been a lot of what I would rate as like love, one more level to biting gaffes or scandals. There has not been a level three level four level. Five, I don't know how many levels there are but like. No, I mean like isn't like the Lucy Flores Hands, allocate that's like a three and a half on a five point scale, but I think what happened was a lot of prominent Democrats came out and defended him on that,

and then there was nothing that went beyond what I think a lot of people were kind of like it seems like pretty normal social behavior to me for a person, certain generation- and I think it just didn't stick in the minds of voters- is known as a follow mechanism for for keeping adding in the news that look. That was certainly Nate, that big a scandal by as had. But my point is simply that I actually don't think the questions about Biden's age have really congealed into a problem for him yet, which is to say that if those do congeal or if something more cute Ben's, that's like level four level. Five, I don't think we've like really tested the tough line by Dan Hypothesis, yet think about the the the scandals that Trump pad and compare those like the bottom ones, they're, not even in the same ballpark. I wouldn't go and declare bite in sort of like beyond reproach, yet

so we've said segued into bite and the only two remaining here are Warren and Sanders. We talked plenty about them last week. We're going to do a lightning round here, so Warren is up next and Claire Warren is yours. What is her strategy going into the debate? Well, I think it's kind of what I was just saying before mega, which is she needs to make an electability argument and I think a lot of that comes down to the air she has about her on stage which I know sounds like stupid. Your criticism, blah blah bop, but the idea of how you what posture you take versus the numerical front, runner Ie Joe Biden, I would say warren- would need to act on stage as Biden Equal, which, frankly, I think she's done for decades. I mean it's really go back and look at the Senate hearing clips. I think they view the system differently and I think that they're sort of

it's an interesting thing to watch that they are sort of decades, long or a couple decades. Long Democrats, who think about the party very differently and in Warren's case B, L L a leader to identify as a as a Democrat, first and foremost, and I think that that's going to be really in to watch and I think Warren probably will heart of hearts want to eviscerate Biden, but I think you kind of have to walk this interesting line, particularly as a woman yeah of being too eviscerating too emasculating there's a lying too, because I think expectations are very high for Warren. This debate in general, she's gotten very press coverage of the past few months, she's gradually moved up in the polls open or she's at a quite formidable number. She is seen I think, based on our first two debates. Barely is like a good debater. She does have this like fairly difficult balancing act, especially the women were, on the one hand like she is

not someone who needs to win the nomination today. She is under any cat in the field. The most reason to just mister time tends to help her on the other. If she's too meek, then you can matching like a media narrative being that, oh, she was disappointing. This is your big moment following stage with Biden and she didn't over and I feel like. I know where is well enough. You could see it square like Warren Months Federal press coverage of a sudden there's a plot twist, and he makes a gaffe from the debate or she's very flat tribute by somebody. I'm just saying, there's like upside down, so I I with that. Like yeah the risk, is you don't have a good debate? I have trouble seeing Warren being meek not because of personality, but because, like her positions within the party in the spectrum of issue, stances of candidates almost forces her to always be scrapping, and so even

she were, like I don't know, didn't, have coffee before the debate or whatever like didn't recharge your batteries. She could still be thrown into the position of being the defender of the left spectrum of the party, along with Bernie Sanders and, to contrast with Harris Harris has itself in the she's in the GT kind of the temperatures, a little tepid but a little hot, and so therefore she may be more like more I'm kind of in the middle here. I'm kind of a good compromise and she's not taking the sort of like steak out of place all right and we have reached the end with Senator Bernie Sanders. He has been kind of remained steady in the polls for a few months now, some ups and downs. What does he do? How does he regain his forty percent plus forty four percent? Something like that support from the two thousand and sixteen democratic primary.

I feel like my answer to all these questions. Reflect back attack attack everybody, but, like the media, will not cover you unless you do something pretty aggressive, and I think it's very tactically- he's kind of been flying on radar as as much lately as much as a very famous politician in America can can no that's right and like it used to be the case that his policy statements were considered aggressive by the media because were by by the by the kind of standards of the day. That's not the case anymore. Just calling for like structural change, isn't enough Thio differentiate yourself or to get the media to like put you at the top of their next day.

The maturation of ochlik, essentially like a one issue. Candidate decades ago, Bernie Sanders was the Andrew Yang of the Democratic Party right he was. The guy was who was constantly talked constantly king about income inequality. This is one thing he has his big out moment in two thousand and sixteen he shifts the paradigm, but then is the paradigm or do after the paradigm has shifted. All of these other people who are like detail, oriented, walk politicians at come in and kind of over we're all. We all support Sanders Medicare for all and then wrote we're all spinning off like Harris. Does a pragmatic thing and worn? Does the walkie take on it, the educated, like white establishment? So where does that leave? I think he has like a little bit of a to go back to this. His real talent and strength and like it has moved the party is, is his ability to be polemical? I think the problem with that is campaign faces now is a big part of them. Their outward messages everyone's against us, which isn't

really the kind of fun message that private come come, join us and you'll get attacked by everybody right, yeah, I've, one minor critics, the first all burning has the steady yesterday performances. Never bad. Never terrific right is very steady debater, but I have one Deacon one, one league of of his strategy. The critique is, I'm getting a little bit. What Claire was talking which is like, I think sometimes he focuses too much the debates on abstract ideas and not the impact, some people, and so the thing that I think usually politicians do too much. We tell a story about a voter and Iowa blah blah blah. I write like I think he could and to do more of that folksy stuff explicitly say like hey look, if you're like a working class Democrat, I am looking out for you. There's a lot of character, pleasantly competing for college media frames on the debate, because all the media folks Foster College Democrats who have college educated friends right.

We can gain ground among Non College Democrats and that's kind of where you see overlap with his support and Biden's the bigger critique it's more complicated is like also echoing what early comments, but like it's hard to win the nomination, which inherently is a consensus building process it's built into the room. In fact that you need to win forty delegates, not plurality. Take all it's hard to do. Then everyone is against us line right. It's a great way to retain your fifteen percent. It's not a good way to get to thirty percent and so being like. I was the original g gangster behind a lot of these ideas that other Democrats Democrats are now taking from it kind of makes sense that we want to nominate me is kind of the heir apparent in the party how without seeming again, I think it's a little bit. This goes to the softer softer Bernie things after burning yeah show some humor right, I mean, but it's kind of like a little bit with Trump or like people, know that I'm going to get back

like his base right, so Trump can afford to soften that and wouldn't lose as much. I don't know yeah, I think. Actually, so the softer Bernie thing is, I agree, the right, stratia pivot and it again it goes to politicians. People with idiosyncrasy and Bernie Sanders is supremely uncomfortable with talking about his personal life, his life story in general. You just look at it and there's there's a lot of soft focus. What her life like about the women but there's a lot of narrative bill leaving around Warren and Harrison how their their lifes you know, came to politics with Bernie Sanders. It has always been kind of a black box around his private life and I think one of the ways that that the campaign could have are still could like soften up. The persona is like to have Bernie Sanders talk a bit more from like the first person at his life story, because he is much as Warren kind of have like ideological transformation. Like you know, you decide

move to the woods to to go to this. This different place from where he grew up, and I think that that stuff is interesting and compelling and like what happened during that transformation, but they don't. He doesn't really talk about that because he's obviously personally uncomfortable with that. I also a good debate for him to experiment. I mean, I think, actually. Is the lowest stakes for him of any of the major candidates right, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he in because the debate, it's also hard to imagine a scenario where all the sudden jumps seven points right. A lot of the focus is on Warren versus Biden and, to some extent, Harris verse. Warren they've been the same seats together, so just kind of experiment and, like literally, is very on brand to say, but like collect data on how voters like it, because you're probably going to need another gear at some point in order to get to twenty four percent and when Iowa and like this debate, where there are ten candidates on stage focal point, is somewhere else, you can kind of like run little randomize control trial and like not be a big disk,

but just kind of see how people react to it all right. Well, of course, we will see how this all plays out on Thursday night eight hundred o'clock on ABC Summer going Houston, so we'll have a post debate reaction, podcast in which will be able to judge all of our strategies, whether not they can it took them, whether not they worked that'll be fun, but that's it for now. Thank you, Nate. Thank you, Galen. Thank you, Claire thanks, Gail Ann. Thank you MIKE. Thank you and check out our live block. Yes, we have I've logged on Thursday night, starting at what time the law at like seven hundred and thirty, but really get home in the debate, starts. Gotta. Have that second screen all right, my name is Galen drip. Toni Chau is in the control. Room are in turn, is Jay, Carlo. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts, at five hundred and thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store or tell what about us thanks for listening and we'll see.