So who's gonna win room raider. They both have very well designed bookshelves behind Jeff in, you're ready remiss in easy has tower Tubby now what are they if anybody any berries. Ah, this is secured. hello and welcome to the five thirty politics by just I'm dealing. I'm there are, there are six days until election day and as we're sitting down to report it, Seventy three million Americans have already voted that adds up to wrap fifty three percent of all the votes cast in two thousand sixty and today we're gonna take a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago after the two thousand sixteen election, a major theme was the educational device with Non called

educated white voters swing for Trump and those with a college degree moving toward Clinton. We also saw a sizable gender gap. We saw a lower turnout among black Americans and young people compared with the two thousand and eight and two thousand elections. We also saw other trans according to geography, class, etc, and so or those trends that we saw in the two thousand. Sixteen election stick and what are the new trends that are emerging in twenty twenty, that we can tell so far and maybe focus

on in the aftermath of this election. So we're gonna try to did through the data and give you a picture of what the electorate looks like an here with me to do that. Our senior politics redder Perry. They can junior hip very good to see you you two are zero, thus is senior writer, Amelia Thomson Devout Hamley area, haggling and elections analysed Jeffrey scowling had just a galen, so before we begin to draw comparisons with two thousand sixteen or earlier elections, I want to try to paint a picture of what the overall electorate looks like in twenty twenty. So Perry, can you kick us off just in terms of the breakdown by age, race, education, even party affiliation, though kinds of things. So I ll start with about a third of voters, are registered Democrats about a third of what is Republicans a third or independence but, as you know, independence often leaned toward one party of the other. So when you include liners about,

forty, nine percent of voters and then, as Democrats about forty four identify as republic is dead numbers pretty similar to sixteen actually suggesting in sixteen that, Sir, amount of people who leaned democratic generally voted for Trump. We look at the your terms of race. What you see is about sixty nine sin of british voters, are not hispanic White Americans about eleven percent are black about. Eleven percent are spanish in about eight percent others. This, mostly asian you look at age about fifty two percent of voters are aged. Fifty are over enough. Forty, eight percent younger than age. Fifty silly, a slightly leans older, as opposed to a younger and in terms of degrees, about two thirds of voters, either

Windsor High school only or went to some college, but don't have a degree. That's about sixty five percent of voters per pew. Twenty one percent of voters card. If you have a bachelor's degree, and then fifteen percent of voters have a post grad according to you so again, most voters do not have a college degree Finally, according to Pew about sixty four percent of voters are some kind of Christian and about Germany's a protestant Catholic, that's across races and about thirty six percent of voters are not christian and those people are unappealing. That also includes Muslims jewish.

All other religious as well are so that's a pretty comprehensive view of registered voters in the United States and, of course, that is also just registered voters broadly and what the actual electorate looks like can change a little bit according to turn out amongst different groups and ass. We ve mentioned previously on this package. We are expecting record turn out this year in the range of a hundred forty four two hundred sixty five million, and that compares with a hundred thirty seven million in two thousand sixteen so Amelia. Who are we seeing potentially turning out in twenty twenty that we didn't see in two thousand? Sixteen. So one group that I've been watching pray closely. Our young voters and that's a group where traditionally turn out is quite low. Less than half of young voters who were eligible to vote actually did in twenty sixteen, and it looks like so far that we are heading for

I return out among young voters, I mean with the caviar of course, that, just because we are seeing a surge of early voting among young people, you know we don't know how many of those people would voted on election day. We don't know what the trends are. Gonna, look like in the next few days, so take all of this with a grain of salt. It could change, but you know what I would say is we're seeing this in the early vote and also in several surveys, I've seen including the survey that we recently published with Ipsos. That was focusing on why Americans do and don't vote just seeing really high levels of enthusiasm about voting from young people and a sense that this election really matters and that's important, because one of the things that we found in that survey is that it's not totally fair to think about Americans just as voters and non voters, actually most people sort of fallen

between the vote in some like elections, they won't vote in others. Young voters tend to fall more in the category of people who just don't vote very much at all By what our data indicate aid is that people are more likely to go out and cast a vote which, for young people can be quite difficult. We found that they are much more likely to report experiencing barriers to voting like not being able to get off work, having a stand on the wine not having the right idea than older folks. So this is not necessarily a thing. It's easy for young people and I would expect those barriers to be even more complicated in the middle of a pandemic. But you know when people feel lake. Their vote really has a chance to matter and when they feel like the election is really important there more likely to say ok, you know, I'm gonna stand in an argument outline this year, because this really matters, whereas in another year you know they might to say you know I've class. I I can't do this. This isn't worth it anyway. So

the group that I am definitely gonna be keeping an eye on and I think we are seeing some signs that turn out could be higher among young folks. One of the two ways after two thousand and six to the we heard about was that we didn't see blocked for now at the same levels that Obama saw in two thousand and two thousand and twelve. Now that may be obvious that the excitement surrounding the first. Why president would increase black turn out, but we particularly saw democratic strategist, pointing to areas around Philadelphia, Detroit Milwaukee as key to a path to electoral college victory? Is there any indication that we are seeing a higher black turn out this time round in a sailor. Pennsylvania ceiling, Wisconsin the video file, does not have information regarding raised if you're talking about a state like North Carolina Florida because of the Very Rights ACT, those states to act, to keep track of that stuff, bite,

because we just don't know how many election diverse, you're gonna be trying to sort of parts through the elect the early voting. On top of that, I think doesn't really tell us all that much except, I think. Just generally saying we can say that turnout looks like it's going to be decently high, not just because we see all these early votes, which we deaf, I do, but because we have pulling that shows, people are very interested in the election like Amelia mentioned, they think the stakes are extremely high in a pew poll earlier this year, more than eighty percent of respondents said that who wins really matters, whereas back in the two thousand election things were a lot more evenly split on whether or not the result even mattered, that

and you have gallop with a uphold that found. Seventy one percent reddish voters were more enthusiastic about virgin selection than previous ones. The way that the question is asked- and that was the highest figure gallop is ever found since they started asking this in the midnight tonight is so I think we know from those poles plus what we are seeing in terms of the early ring returns that people are highly engaged in that turnouts, bigamy pretty high in the selection, it could be record setting one thing: the note about the black turner was in two thousand and twelve, and particular black turnout was basically the same level as white turn. Our best brayley unusual additionally white voters voted for five percent higher than black borders

in terms of tunnels in so into doesn't well, black turnout was equal to white turn out those sixteen. You had the gap again and two dozen eighteen. We actually had the gap again where you had white turnout. Was it a higher percentage than Blackstone US, unless my expectation is that it may be the case that both black turnout is higher ever that met her youth turn out, maybe higher than twenty sixteen but they get may be the same, because my guess is that older voters and white voters me also Turandot even higher levels than twenty. Sixteen is work, as part of the question is not just turn out, but what sort of differential turn out, like Obama benefit a lot from black turn out, went up a lot, while white turnout really didn't into doesn't eight and twelve to Paris. Point we're we're thinking about turn out. It's sort of how do people vote out of date our group, but, as our group is making up a larger and larger percentage of the potential electorate. Then even turn out doesn't go up as much they're gonna end up.

Forming a larger share of the actual electors? If you're thinking about voters of color, it is very likely vertical will make up a large percentage of the overall electorate in this election and they didn't twenty. Sixteen that has ramifications as those voters tend to lean more democratic than white voters, so that, on its face right, there may thereby multiple analyses that sort of just took what happened at twenty sixteen and then projected for population changes. That Hillary Clinton would have won if she was running under the current conditions. Just because of demographic changes now that's a very simplistic analysis, but nonetheless it gets too might there is say seventy two to thirty four percent of the electorate. Last time was white and this time it seventy two. Seventy two percent, depending on what you're looking at exit polls or other source of estimates that ends up mattering because more non white voters or in the electorate alright show that turn out and, of course we can

bet. You wait a bit about turn out based off of early voting and paused, thus far, but we will come back to that once the ballots are counted and we have more complete data, but we do have a lot of pulling about preferences and how provinces had shifted over the past four years and Jeffrey. You actually took a deep dive into this and looked at a whole bunch of different data from two thousand sixteen and this year and tried to paint a broader picture of how preferences have shifted. So what did you find while we looked at data from the twenty? Sixteen Cooperative congressional election study, which runs every two years basically and gives you a huge data set in a talking then or view about sixty thousand people, and there are you

that data and compared it to about a month of weekly tracking surveys from democracy, fun and usually nation scape? But I think some broad take ways we can say about the data, also reflecting on data from other sources that I've looked at is that non white voters may vote,

what slightly more for Trump than they did for years ago, whereas waivers without a college degree may vote slightly more for buying than they did for Clinton. Four years ago, I think desert two major take away from from what I was looking at by. What you have to remember is that, because white voters are gonna, make up roughly seven and ten of every vote and the electorate that net shift for Biden among white voters is broadly more impact full than the net shift among non white voters for tromp. Just because white voters make up a much larger share of the electorate. So when we look at the shift amongst white voters, that you mentioned, is it across all different types of white voters. Is it just white voters without a college degree, what are some of the further breakdowns amongst white voters? Sure prior one of the more interesting findings that came out of what I wrote was that basically

entire shift among white voters in the nation, Scape data for four twenty twenty compared to twenty, sixteen came from white women, shifting Biden. The margin among men was more or less the same as it had been in twenty sixteen, so that is pretty notable, and I think it touches on some of what a meal is done. Talking about the gender gap in how big it is. Yeah, I mean the gender gap is definitely something that I've been watching and that's a measure that tells you basically how divided men and women are over a particular candidate, and one of the things that I've been watching for was to see if the gender gap widened, which would be a sign as Jeff was saying that people of one gender women in this case were getting more enthusiastic about Biden, less enthusiastic about trump and men were not moving in that direction. Also, because, if men are moving in that direction to then women might be,

mandating trumpet really high levels, but the gender gap might not be enormous and so would have really been seeing as I've been keeping an eye on the pools is that it doesn't look like the gender gap is quite large. I mean it varies by racial group. It varies by other demographics and, of course, varies according to the pulled that you're looking out. But I didn't analysis of white suburban voters with two of our political scientist. Contributors merit of Conroy, an errand Cosette S, and we found a really striking gender gap between white men and women in the suburbs, with fifty seven percent of white, suburban man supporting trump and fifty four percent of white, suburban women supporting Biden, and so that's quite striking

especially because Trump has ever been making these appeals to voters in the suburbs we ve been hearing a lot about voters in the suburbs this time round and bright. Now, you know again with the caviar that will have to see how this all looks when the election is actually over. It does look like Trump is managing to hang on to man in a lot of the places where he's really losing, we focused too much on college Non College, different areas so on? That's all important been looks to me basin of resources, the white women of all. demographics in all areas in all of education levels and so on have moved against Trump in twenty percent two thousand and sixteen the ship. The ship is like white women more than it is white college. For example, I think it. I think this shift is, if buying winds. It'll be like we know, most like a majority vote against drops to really white women shifted against strong is, I think, the story

It's happening in rural areas and among Non college graduates as well and white men have sort of stuff withdraw, but I think the gender gap was already big. That may be the reason. Trump loses, I'm curious about this occasional gap. I know this is something that you ve written about as well Perry. We know that, prior to the two thousand, sixteen election Republicans reliably one a majority of college educated whites. It looks like, according to like the past month of Polling Biden, is winning that group by twenty one points and Hillary Clinton. One then but didn't win them overwhelmingly show is that twenty one point margin coming largely from college educated, white women, or is that something we can look across the board. In maybe suburban areas, urban areas we ve, seen a big shift in education. Well, some of the data from sale, IP research center. I know that white voters

with a college degree have shifted a bit more toward the Democrats in terms of how they identify, whereas white voters without a college degree have shifted in the other direction. More toward report since, and I think the data as a whole would suggest that in particular. White women with a college degree have definitely shifted to the Democrats, and so my educated guess, based on that parties, unification data from He research centre would say that a lot of that shift among white women. I probably college educated white women more anything that would seem to be the likeliest explanation. But of course we can't know with absolute certainty. In other words, I think the education gap is not dead dissimilar to twenty. Sixteen, I'm looking at you data from sixteen so pew suggested Hilary one White College, grads by seventeen points and they had a

recent poll here by my head by twenty once again, but there might purely be slain by women's approach, smog and then pew in six. team here trump winning among White Non college grads by looks like thirty six and he's winning by twenty six this year. So in other words by doing better among white people period by the Democratic Party is now winning White College Reds and losing White Non college reds and dedication gap is not changed that much from sixteen to twenty. Although there

public ten point improvement amongst actually Noncolor jacketed rights right. Yes, I agree with everything is a big improvement is here. I think this is a good moment to just remind listeners viewers that some of these estimates are gonna vary from source the source, but there does seem to be agreement that among voters that are white, but don't have a college degree that Biden has eaten into trumps advantage there to some extent. So there's some. I would see, there's debate about what's happening with white voters with a college degree, whether a sort of staying the same, maybe even shrinking slyly growing comparative twin succeed, but I do think that there is some broad agreement on what's happening with white voters without a college degree that at least to some extent Biden has cut into trumps advantage and that's important, because that is going to be the largest chunk of the electorate. If you break down white voters by education and then have other voting curve, spy

razor at nursery. Why version that a college rear gonna, be the plurality of the electric? So Biden is eating into trumps advantage with the largest part of the electorate about forty percent of voters, in least forty percent, maybe moral, be white voters and our college agrees to throw us another demographic wrinkle, into what is going on with white voters. One thing that I've been following is what's going on with white Christians, which is a really important group for the Republicans, because, basically, when you look at religious group, you see, Christians of color and non christian groups in the on affiliated all sort of strongly in the democratic column and then white, even Jellicoe. Protestants obviously are one of the Republicans most loyal

groups and then other white Christian. So why not even Jellicoe Protestants and White Catholics also have been moving Republican in the past ten years, and so the Republican Party, when you just look at religion, is increasingly reliant on white Christians and Trump did very well among white christian groups in twenty. Sixteen I'll have a story coming out about this later this week. That folks should check out on the site if they're interested, but they looked at what was happening, but some of those sub groups Biden has been going after more conservative, moderate Christians, many of them white Christians, making this case that, like no I'm actually the candidate of faith, I'm the moral candidate trump is not really a religious person that you want to vote for and to try to assess whether that's working and what I found is that it doesn't seem like there's really been any erosion in trumps support among white, even Jellicoe Protestant,

switch is not as the prize if you ve been following their approval of the president and their strong support for the president over the past four years, they're just really really in his collar and no matter what happens the pandemic girl. You know the recession or any of these other things there so basically with him, but he appears to have lost support relative to twenty sixteen among White Catholics and, depending on the pull you look at you see their narrow leading among white Catholics? According to some Pew data, I was looking at. I saw Biden with a very narrow lead in other pole, so I think it's not exactly clear where they are here, but Trump one White Catholics quite decisively and twenty sixteen. So the fact that their looking like a toss up group is not good for him, and that is. It is especially bad news because of where they tend to live. There are over represented in upper Midwestern, Russ belt states think Wisconsin

miss again, Pennsylvania, Ohio and it seems like they're moving away from Trump and from the date I have looked at. It seems a lot of like has to do with his handling of the covert paint him pandemic. They give him really bad marks on that, especially compared to white. Evangelical Protestants maybe you're. It probably doesn't hurt. Also that biting his is all the White catholic resort of this debate like the extent to which these from like a blue collar background, but I think people from that background kind of can connect with him, culturally and religiously, in a way that they might not have been able to with Hillary Clinton, who was also christian but a mainline protestant and whenever the factors that certainly don't think that we can show up this shift among white Catholics solely or even mostly to the fact that Biden is himself a calf.

But he does seem to be doing much better among this group than Clinton did. Four years ago, you started Dimension Amelia, some of the reasons for the shifts that were seeing and we ve talked about many different segments of white voters. We say generally why the shift has happened. Is it the corona virus pandemic? Are there other things that we can attributed to or aversion to the mean of just Trump way over performed in two thousand sixteen and it's hard to keep those margins where they work. I think some of this is drop is unpopular and there was the case before the krona virus to like he visas, approval rating was lower among whites, like even The corona virus he was dead by sixty Joe Biden and most poles and twenty nineteen. He was down Joe Biden, most paused before the krona virus. I think he'd be down against people judge, sort of all democratic, similar views to bite in

my view of the electorate is: did white people have shifted in some ways, because the racial eyes nature of politics in these last four years has made some of the things Hillary Clinton said about Trump seem correct, then I think to de racism. Factor in the race vector about from has created a back lasted kind of hard to get at because people don't tend to say well, I got it wrong, so deplorable thing was maybe not totally wrong. You know, I don't think you're going to stay there, but if you really get down and talk to voters, you find at the concerns about Trump about his There is, and so on, maybe we're right there in sixteen or people look them and now they're. Not. I think you get us just say simply that yeah, but the current a virus has to be some part of the discussion here. If people were concerned about the way the president behaves and other things, he said,

as any new latch onto that. This pandemic. That is affected soon to people's lives and has led to the death of a return thousand Americans that's difficult and I think for people. not shift attitudes or have attitudes they already had about trump if they sort of soured on him after the twin. Sixteen election, maybe have those attitudes more hardened, because if President Rob was behind the poles to begin with earlier this year, it made it more difficult for him to have an obvious, had to come back once he had terrible ratings on the most important issue affecting Moroccans lives. I mean, if pulling a showing. This is the thing that America's care the most about, and basically forty percent of them approve of your handling of this most serious problem does affecting Americans lives, then that's just a kind of a fundamental problem for your electoral chances are. I wanted dig a little deeper into the cross tabs, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy yes, Pierre, you, radio, on serious,

He s been you. Radio on serious accident is where you need to be. If you live and breathe college football, we're talking, live games. The latest rankings conference and team news analysis from experts like Mark Packer, Gregg Mc Alber, I and Ii J Manual, all leading up to championships. Specials and more take serious Exxon with you and always have the latest college football info. You need listen right now on the serious exam app or online at serious exam dot com, slash, listen yes, Pierre, you that, yes paean, you Jeffrey you mentioned when you were doing your overview of some of the ships that you found in comparing data between two thousand sixteen and twenty twenty that we have seen. Tromp improve his lot with blood and hispanic voters, and I think we ve seen perhaps more real

mounting evidence that trumpeters improved his lot with hispanic voters. I know that there is a little bit more of a debate about how much he is improved, his standing with black voters, but I'm curious to what extent we have seen this happen. To what extent the data is conflicting if it having in person there are regions or, amongst our particular subset of voters like younger older voters. What's the breakdown they're going through the process, I think what we can say is that Trump appears to be doing slightly better among younger black voters. And among black men among black women. It's pretty similar twenty. Sixteen among older african Americans, it's pretty similar to twenty, sixteen? So, if you're trying to dissect, where the shift again, not that large but slight shift is coming from, I think it sort of get started. Two groups in, but I do know that some of this may come down to younger blackfooted not being as tied in with,

democratic party, not is committed to the Democratic Party as older black voters in terms of how they identify and black women, of course, basically the most democratic part of the electorate in terms of their partisan leanings and To see them not really move very much compared to twenty. Sixteen is is really not a surprise. Me looks like will end up around ten percent of black borders will vote for tromp, which is sort of where we ve been for a long time. The republican number is generally around In reality, no number I've seen some twenty eight and some Thirty five- and I think there is worth noting that Florence in Texas Latinos in those days tinted more conservative than in the vat. Our Arizona so- and I would say more, in Florida than end like humans are no more Cubans in Florida, Cuba is a more conservatism within these groups, and it is worth its like a hard to having very simplistic discussion

but in terms of the black part, with GSM data, from some pollsters for holding him calling african american research collaborated what they found was black voters over forty five tend to be very positive of the democratic Party. The Democrats in Congress Obama, Joe Biden, really positive about them and black waters under forty five, more sceptical of the government, more sceptical that the government's effective, more sort of disaffected from politics. Disaffected, no democratic party, more open to the idea that, in some of the questions were long lines of peoples who have agreed to trot might be racist, still be open to the idea that they should vote for him. Just try something different amongst them. Younger crowd of black voter, so I would you were talking about numbers here, we're talking about. He may win twelve percent the forty five and six percent over forty five among blackmail, but it

isn't it knows what he no stories interesting. Only because Trump has been a lot of work and his campaign has trying to build support in terms of what he knows in Florida in particular. If you think about his Cuba policy he's been very Anti Castro regime in unison to roll back Obama's policies? There were more positive about you and your software Cuba, so DES ripening, I'm really looking at these Florida, latino numbers and they make a balanced around elaborate. If, if is of losing Florida, that'll be one more issue stories, but I wouldn't be shocked because I being troubles and a good job courting Latinos in Florida. It

what I would say, the Boers having about which he knows too. This is a group where it's not just that from a sort of made active overtures to specific parts of the latino population. That might be more enthusiastic about potentially voting for him. This is also a group where Biden just hasn't done a great job of engaging in even latino Democrats in the democratic primary. I was writing about this months ago. When the primary or moving through western states and Bernie Sanders was the one who had really made an investment in organizing in latino communities out West, and it really made a big difference for him and praising a really important point that Latinos are not a monolith and that when you talk about the team

voters in places like Arizona or Nevada or California. They tend to be more democratic, leaving in general, more likely to be Mexican American and then, of course, Cubans and Puerto Ricans. We might see more of them on the EAST coast of Florida in particular, and they have different ideas a profile, but in general, what I've seen and the Poles, who bounced around a little bit on this somewhere from like Biden under performing Hillary Clinton. A little bit among Latinos overall too may be running around equal with Hillary Clinton and twenty sixteen. But then, of course, Hillary Clinton didn't do as well among Latinos in twenty. Sixteen is Barack Obama. Didn't

twelve and in general. I think this is just a group that his campaign has maybe not invested as much time in reaching. It just seems to be especially specific latino communities out West, like he just kidding connected with them as well. Throughout this campaign, and it does seem to be showing up as a potential weakness for him. On the other hand, one thing that I wrote about in a peace with Nathaniel breakage last month is that the gender gap that we see in women talking about a lot among white women, that gender gap has also been opening up, among which he knows- and I don't think there's meeting like really special, that's happening among Latinos, in particular with the gender gap. There is like their voters, like everyone else, and we're seeing this gender gap everywhere and were also seeing it among Latinos, but what I've seen is

could see that gender gap open up to, and you know many of these latino folks, we're are or border tromp might be more likely to be men and women moving toward Biden. One other complicating factor in trying to get a red on their voting preferences is not with the fact that they are not a monolith is also that many of them speak Spanish as the first language, and so The challenges for pulsars and for survey organisations trying to get a red on their preferences is that if they don't have enough interviews in Spanish or any at all that actually contribute to maybe getting misreading or not a fool. Reading of what the attitudes are among hispanic voters are so that's another thing I think listener should keep in mind. Is that that's just,

a major complication there in that exists, for other groups say like Asian Americans as well, obviously not a monolith at all, not the black waters remodel with either. I think Bide made a mistake, basically saying that early in the campaign, but I think in terms of language, its particular area. I think we're. U can see problems if you dont have interviewers your speaking. The first language for many voters. Group. So Frazier Americans is also the case just a day, don't form nearly as large. A chunk of the electorate is say: hispanics do in a lot of a spanish speak. Spanish is a first language and are probably not going to talk to an English only interviewer yeah. So I think some of the themes that I've taken away from why we ve seen movement amongst voters of color is that the trend that we ve already seen exist in terms of gender and have also even seen in terms of college education. White more like you know, women

graduate from college wore black women graduate from college as well, and so there is even just an educational divide, as well as a gender divide that exist across the electorate. I'm curious if we have an answer as to why this is the case, why Trump kind of exaggerates this educational divide across all segments of american life? Why the gender gap is exaggerated? We can talk

what about the shifts in movements, but I'm sure a lot of people eliciting thinking. Well, ok, why? Likewise, all that is happening- and maybe sometimes it seems obvious, but we might as well try to spell it out so lucky the putative sixteen black men. Fourteen percent workers from an pew has an asterisk for black woman for Trump suggesting the numbers close to zero. So in this sense I am not sure that there has been a shift. Their ivy, maybe Gyp disagrees black women no more for trumped. You like a man, I don't think, there's much of a shift, their I'm hasn't to say black men like Trump, because he does these three things as opposing black men are more conservative and have been for a long time, and I agree with that sentiment in terms of trade figure out. What what exactly is motivating voters? I think we ve known for a long time that men in general are more right, leaning than women and so something about trump

maybe exacerbating that divide, which goes back to a number of different things. I mean, of course, people will think about the issue like abortion. but that actually probably isn't really what's going on there. I think. What's what comes down to is that issues democratic party tends to pull more favourably on such as a health care. Are the Republicans and Republicans are more likely to pull better when it comes to security. Issues are more likely to affect the attitudes of of women with some like health care

that's an issue as important as Emma with Republicans men, maybe morgeson security issues, our spanish traditional one or for the GNP. So it's hard to peg down exactly what's the source of every single aspect of of why you have some of these gaps in education or gender by you can at least see a few of those issues being part of why this exists well anyway. Chaps describing is part of the reason that we have a gender gap at all. This is a trend that we have been seeing unfold in american politics over several decades, where men and women are increasingly voting differently from each other that didn't used to be the case. You can see a really clear turning point in the nineteen eighty election when suddenly, this thing called the gender gap appears, and it's because you know what that, like men and women, were thinking exactly the same way about politics prior to nineteen, eighty, but the parties realigned in ways that drew women toward the Democrats and men toward the Republican

that that there is a lot more going on there. There are certain kind of realignment away from the Democratic Party, especially among white men. Generally. It's a complicated you that one of the things that I've seen in covering the gender gap over the past four or five years is that women in general and their big caviar to this, because partisanship really shapes the way that people think about race and gender issues but serve when you compare republican man to republican women in democratic men to democratic women, women tend to just be more progressive on racial issues or, if you put it the other way, they tend to be less raises. According to the metrics, the political scientists used for this, they score.

lower in racial resentment, and the same goes for sexism. So when you have a candidate like tromp, who is specially, you know with his immigration policy with so many other aspects of his presidency, where he's just kind of activating people's prejudices and then also people's reactions to those prejudices in so many different ways. Obviously I can't say like that is exactly why we are seeing the gender gap opening up even more, but I have to believe that that has something to do with what we're seeing and especially with what we are seeing among democratic women who tend to

of all those groups score the lowest on measures, lake, gender resentment or racial resentment. You know that more women are moving into that space of identifying as Democrats and that they are the ones who were really really strongly rejecting trump. Like it's an explanation that then we can see in the data and it also just makes sense having lived through the passport. Yours, I think been racial outages points. She moved so important will receive cuz, I think, next week we might wake up and buying was like he's, gonna win like us. They like a state which is very heavily white, but is any harm to win Georgia in Texas, North Carolina to be hard floors in close and differences. Those states in the MID West Midwest have very few white evangelicals one, and that sort of organization, the sound of a lot of white in his we're talking about white people with towers

Greece, when there also evangelical that's a very conservative group in this George in Texas, the thing is political sign is how we have always racial attitude scores and does it make Are you call them? But when you ask white people in the south, I would say the polite: what is it this is their their skeptical of society racism in solutions to it? And so, when you get to a place like Georgia, very suburban and has a lot of white College graduate once you get started, Lana itself, when these Lana suburbs are suburbs. There were in some ways founded because of racial tension. Wear white people moved away from the black centre of Lana Proper, so those suburbs of land are going to be a very challenging place for bind to win with the white but there is even the ones who have covers agrees and so on, because the racial attitudes scores those people are going to be much deeper than a white voter outside of like the Philadelphia. Instead,

Canada. What I'm watching to see is like this idea of the Democrats will win Georgia and Texas, particularly North Carolina requires dimmed, run up this or with minorities, and in I think, at the end of the day, they have to have some high number of White College graduates who voted,

look maybe attended even joyful church some numbers. It will have to vote for the Democratic Canada and Umbrella, sceptical that yeah I'd think as borne out when you look at state by state polling. Is that Biden nationally improved somewhat with white voters, but your more likely to see that across the industrial MID West and North East- and you are to see that in the south and even if by does manage when a state like Texas or Georgia, he will have to prove among white voters compared Hillary Clinton to do that. But we're not gonna talk be seeing a massive swings among white voters toward Biden in the south and mean I don't think you're an associate masses swings anywhere, but I think you're more likely to see more substantial shift among white voters in a place. Like was content. Then you are in a place like Georgia. So it's just about just how much too small movements in the margins. Just how big are those small movements, though still be small, but

just how small in Texas that man white voters trump sixty two biden- thirty very similar in Georgia, white voters with college degrees, Trump, fifty four Biden, thirty, eight white voters without college degrees in texas- is Acordes Siena Poll Trump, sixty nine Biden, twenty five, those was a much more narrow in Michigan and was consonants. That's gonna like, in other words like we talk about white voters with degrees, but he proves that are not a monolith: white voters without degrees in Mean Michigan, California, in Georgia might as well be on different. The I think, that's important to keep in mind and so wrapping up here we ve talked a little bit about what we might expect coming out of next Tuesday after two thousand sixteen, we talk so much about

educational divide, do you have any inklings about what sort of trends might be the lessons learned from this election before it happens? So I think we ve talked about the racial part in Trump did not have many Blackwood is to lose but you should have kept those groups, the latino voters he had was about thirty percent he's kept them. So it goes to the point that is worth thinking about. I think so. The assumption has been that. Obviously, if a person says controversial racial things that will turn off manure, voters in particular. I would argue the last four years suggests that there is a certain number of minorities who have more conservative views on racial issues in particular, and what trunk is really done has turned up white people with some of his reign of use. Not people of color are conservative of not change their views on that in parliament. They were there too. It looks like from all data can see like an ice and I as well,

I was right about was the is now clear that come alive again soda copied in story. I think the pick of Camelot Harris was more of a reward to black voters, further loyalty to the Democratic Party in the past. Asked into the helping bite and win? There's not a lot of evidence to Camelot Harris's like improve being Biden performance among black people looping cover this boy I was already very popular when the goes to the point that you can be a white politics, be very popular among black people and businesses that a black policies will always be more popular than they wipe out issues. Also similar views in terms of the college gap.

It looks like it's went down a little bit and let me go to a lot of bankers, but it's still really really large looks like this White college white. None college get will be with us for a while and is by would argue bad for democracy gap. This big, where it's like, if he is not clear,

show me. The education should be this divider and elite in a sort of goes to cultural attitudes. I think, as opposed to the policy thing is a bad thing that looks like that gap is going to continue and the one thing I'm curious about it looks like Georgia and Texas are closer, not because of demographic trends like normal people of color in Georgia and Texas is going up, but this ship were seeing right now is really white. Voters are moving against the Republicans. I think we might wake up in twenty twenty two or two thousand and twenty four and the Republicans are again. The favor is clearly in Georgia, Texas, because it's not a demographic story happening in the sunbelt right now really is a white majority of the electorate is anti Trump, but I don't know if they're anti republican

and yet so it's always hard to kind of predict like what we're gonna be surprised by a week for now. But if someone knows and wants to tell me I'd, love to hear it, but anything that I'm watching to go back to a theme that I think we ve been hitting on for the entire pike. Ass is what that gap between men and women looks like and if Biden does managed, to pick up more support among men, because I think it only talk about the gender gap. There's this tendency to say what's going on with women and its true that white women in particular, and also Atinas their movement away from Trump, has been a big story, but the fact that men are staying with Trump for the most part is all a big part of the story- and I think, there's been some good reporting on how Trump has this you know like hyper masculine. Stick that appeals to some more traditionalist man, and that includes latino men and also includes white men,

so. I think it important to make sure that we're thinking about not just what's happening with women, but actually the gender part of the gender gap, and if Trump does manage to hang on to a significant chunk of white man. You know how he does among latino man, I'm gonna be really curious about. That is also a really telling thing about our politics going forward. Just if this trend that we are seeing is men and women continuing to vote increasingly differently from each other and to think about politics differently from each other and to have different issue priorities and in a want that the parties to be doing different things, that's a big deal and that something that I think we could very well be talking about, not just in the aftermath of next Tuesday, but in twenty twenty two. Twenty twenty four is not clear to me how much that is about Trump and how much of it is

this more general realign men along party lines between men and women and that something I'm just really curious about, and China will have some more and fell on that in a week or two. So, yes, we'll get back to you or as well as familiar mentioned. We will have much much more data a week from now and we will begin to unpack it for everyone and to make sense of this election that essential is ongoing as we speak, but for now thank you. Harry Amelia and just for our talk to me tonight, thanks he'll scallon scale, my name is Galen Tony Chow isn't a virtual controllers. Clare bitter Gary Curtis is on audio editing. You get in touch my e mailing us at pod cast at five thirty eight dot com. You can also course treated us with an questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave us a rating or review and the Apple pie cast store or someone about us. Also remember to subscribe on Youtube Base for listening

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