Do any of you have blunders? Yes, he's not currently run. Is this like a like you're, like who I've got a really spacey question for you guys? Do you have a blunder yeah, so I have never had one before, but I got one of those little ones. You know first movies and I just had my first movie and I'm never eating normal again. like when you you don't have to ever. Does you don't have to shew I've had a smoothly running area. Where that you don't want to chew yeah, I don't wanna two or cut, because the things that you can put in this movie are such a pain in the ass to chew, like caille

hello and welcome to the five forty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop and I hope everyone had a nice thanksgiving. All of us at five. Thirty eight have been off for the past week, so bear with us as we wake up politics brain on this Monday morning? We're gonna have to I've right and because we are just a week away from election day in georgia, where walker and rough on war, not our compete in a Senate early vote is under way and we're gonna check in on how that waste is looking will also take a look at what is on the docket in this up a lame duck session in congress. Republicans will have the majority in the house next year. In fact, I don't think we recorded a package since that was made official. So let me we say republicans will have a majority in the house next year, so there is just a little over a month of unified democratic control left in congress, and then we can spend the rest of the podcast on yes, a twenty twenty four democratic primary draft, but

or we lacked for thanksgiving nation. I discussed the news that former president trump is officially running in twenty twenty four and debated his odds against fort governor rhonda santos. When it comes to Democrats Biden what have to make up his mind about whether whole rotten within just a few months if he does we want challenge him and if he doesn't what's the field of possibilities, look like he would meet to discuss, but it's reporter Alex annual, say Alex Galen. thus is senior writer, Amelia thompson, diverse hammy area take Ellen and senior elections analyse nathaniel raker chain of annual. How to gain women during our our politics. Brains turned on yet they never after our minds. I voted, as I did. I know, might turn out to be significant. That's bad a robot I have two power down sometimes or I dont functional, I'm like

computer that I'm using right now I have to restart at every monday, otherwise it freezes flower recording the pine for nothing not even like mid turkey's stuff, and gravy were you, like I'm gonna, take a minute to give thanks and not think about. Six well, first value in turkey is disgusting. So I was not eating turkey. Those thanksgiving Oh yes, of course, there were, there were momentary lapses of judgments, in which I failed to think about politics for a few seconds, but thankfully we we still have georgia was to have, funniest thirteenth congressional district, which remains unresolved too keep us engaged after georgia. What is the next election That's a great question, so we have, let's see

The chicago mayoral election first round is coming up on February twenty eighth. We have a few special elections before that. I think anything I want to say it's january tenth. There is a special election for the virginia state senate, which could be important. Considering Democrats just have like a to seek majority? There? Ah, we have they're gonna, be a special actions in pennsylvania's state house, which will be important because, as folks may from following our libel. Last week, Democrats one learn two seats and republicans one hundred one, but a one democratic member passed away: two others are going to have to resign to take other jobs, so republicans are going to temporarily have more seats in the pennsylvania state house for the beginning of the session. But then the special elections are going to be. What gives democrats the majority? and therein safe blue seats. But the elections have to happen and we don't exactly when the timing of those are gonna be so you know the elections will never stop. Galen all

dear, I will show you wanted all that data. Be careful. What you ask for you walk in the meantime, we do have one high profile election, but we're store covering, which is that georgia is once again going to a run off at signed an election in the first round warnock one forty, nine and a half per cent of the vote and walker, one of forty eight and a half percent the libertarian candidate one two percent of the vote. So what one. A similar run off last year but historically run have seemed to benefit republicans in georgia, because the electorate has tended to be older and wider, so How do you see those dynamics playing out? This time is twice twenty one or the sort of historical run off that came before that more of a reference point for this election. So that's it. Shit I've been wrestling with as well is getting ready for the december six run off of, and I really think it's you know. This

you go either way I think, what's complicated and making the comparison to twenty twenty one is that a lot of factors were different back then you know Twenty one control the Senate hung in balance, whereas it does not. This year, Democrats have already clinch there fifty seat majority. In when you twenty one. You also had former president donald trump, essentially telling his base to not trust georgia. Voting process in that did damp in turn out among republican voters. This year Where is he now? In trump announces? Twenty twenty four presidential run he's ethically said you know, go out and vote for herschel walker. I think it needs to be determined whether he is actually going to make us stop and the peach state. But you know it's kind of hard like making apples apples comparison between what happened then, and what happened now, but I the results of this raised will obviously show whether twenty twenty one was more of an operation or if its indicative

georgia becoming a purple or be noticed slightly more competitive seat, firm, democratic rights, running statewide, then on Amelia. How are you thinking about this question I agree with Alex here. We do have this track record of run off, favouring publicans in georgia, but the george Today is not the georgia of the ninety nine. These are the two thousand, so I'm just interested to see what it looks like you know. Obviously, you ask any thirty, eight or this question they're gonna, say: let's look at the polling so far as we record this, we ve seen two poles of the georgia run off so far, one that gave warnock a four point lead and one that gave walker a one point: leave so obvious to pause, hopefully will get more. But

right now it looks like maybe warnock- has a small advantage. If you just average those out and we are, we will hopefully be publishing a polling average in this race. If we get five polls from at least three different pollsters. our threshold for publishing pulling averages, but by yeah! I think I everybody you know the one thing we can say for sure is that is going to be competitive. It's not like there's going to be this huge turn off drop. That's automatically going to favor walker or or one off amateur anything or should we expect. Pollsters, we're gonna be out in the field. Should we expect to get five poles from three different posters or have they all turned our politics brains after yeah. That's a good question. We don't have any had a special intel on that, but I think there are two factors that are working against having more or poles than early, so many poles, as we had in twenty one and that, of course, as a control? The senate isn't on the lines of the interest in the race, isn't as high and then be

Also, there is less time to conduct those pause, because in twenty twenty one, which was the twenty twenty cycle, those run offshore held in early january george, changed its run off lotta hold earlier on offs in the future. So now those run off supports are happening in early december. So That gives us some sense of where the polling stands today. We don't have much of it, but Amelia. Do you think we've learned anything about the two candidates coalitions that might give us some sort of hints about where things are headed in the the first one well. I think we did learn something important, which is that water is a weak candidates and we saw that because he ran considerably behind all the other republicans on the ticket in november, so walk is going into this. You know just he's just going to advocates warnock there's nothing else on the ticket and that could be bad for him, because it's also possible

that having a more popular republican lake income and governor brain camp on the ballot may have brought some people out to vote for him. I think it's possible that some people who were more lukewarm on here who voted in November major stay home and the impact of trump endorsement and involvement, is gonna, be interesting to see two. Obviously, as Alex said, he is taking a different tack. This time by saying yes, go vote and vote for the republican candidate democrats seem to think that that will also not be helpful the Republican there's a warnock add that was running. That was just trump endorsing. Walker that was literally the whole. So you know that gives you a sense of how at least some democrats- are seeing the potential impact of terms. Endorsement of walker, of course, though, will have to see whether democrats are as ensue

now that control of the Senate is an on line, and you know it's possible that turnout could be lower there to another flip. side too. That is you know. Walker was We see it wider public in georgia who did not win outright in november, and it could be possible that rob weakens our more energize because they don't want this to be the one loss for them. So I can see a potential argument for that too, and I think in talking to a few republican strategist into our. There seems to be this sense that now that walker has camps in our campaign in structure in a sentence in now camp is very vocal on the campaign trail for walker more so than he was in november. That could also help him. Two in so far you know again. Region Dont know transplants, fur georgia. We know former president Barack Obama will be there for warnock. I believe on December, for and

a trump has announced plans, and if he does, I I know that will help her walker, warnock so badly dressing. Not just well does Biden have plans to go down there by hasn't announced anything to my knowledge. run officer weird and were also in a kind of it seems like a new era of higher turnout elections and a lot of those historical comparisons that alexander annual you ve looked at were in an era when turn out, we might have just expected to be lowered. Generally so I think that also throws a wrench into things. It's possible that you know people just voted, it's only four weeks, next election, there still kind of tuned in they haven't turned off their politics brain and their more likely to go vote on both sides, then they might have been in the past run off yards. interesting. The other argument the there's voting fatigue?

most I don't know if that's a thing that truly exists, but we're not we'll have had to sort of run a state where campaign for times. If and when, maybe people are tired of voting? Is there anything and we just went through a whole cycle addressing these costs, Friends, but of course, early voting has begun, and so folks are looking at those numbers, and I think elections watchers have noticed just like how high democratic turnout seems be amongst early voters and how high black turnout is, in particular, We generally caution people not to focus on the earlier vote, but is this union in any way. How should we think about those Nathaniel? I just waiting honestly I mean don't really like you know, see you. You see a lot of you know I leave votes so far has been very democratic. It's been a young,

credit counties have been the ones that are generally been offering more days of early voting on them, republican counties and that's obviously part of it, and but some people are like oh, you know. The republicans are shooting ourselves in the foot by not allowing early voting, but like the reality as early voting, as is taking voters who would have voted on election day anyway. I'm time redistributing them earlier in the cycle and in those republican counties that aren't allowing early voting on certain days there they're just gonna vote on election day. We know that republicans prefer to vote on election day anyway. So, in the end you know it it. It's really just kind of you it. That's not like you get extra credit for jumping out two and out an early lead in a race. It's about who cross the finish line. First right- Yeah I actually gives rise to be totally honest, didn't turn my powers could brain off entirely either. So I saw some of your tweets over the brake nevada and I saw you say that there's there's no evidence that early voting actually produce higher turnout overall and that it may

actually lead to lower turn out well, I'd. That seems counter intuitive to me. But what does the research show about the overall impact of early voting here, I think it seems counter intuitive to a lot of folks, but the theory behind that is that you know you don't have a sense of urgency that is taking place on election day just one day and every of social and campaign. Message is get out and vote on. stay December six november? Eighth, whatever it is, and if you have a mole kind of a multi we period. There is less urgency for folks to out about, but overall yeah the the the research on on early voting. I would say that consensus as that it doesn't impact turn out. There have been some studies that I found a negative turn out. Impact but generally, I think it's it's as a I know it it it just it just doesn't impact that and again you know the fact that a democratic county might holding early voting it. It isn't because of our research, I don't think you can say that all these, people who would have are now extra

voters in the electorate, they're, probably people who would have just turned out on election day anyway. Saturday voting? The saturday ever thanksgiving, which obviously has passed by now with that early vote period being reinstated? New is mainly Democrats and warnock who were challenging to allow it to go into effect. Democrats are really hammering hard on. voting than like isn't there. An argument, then that they see a document if there aren't early voting days, yeah I think there is a distinction between what a campaign would prefer and kind of looking at it from a new kind of purely data perspective life. campaigns perspective absolutely more The voting is better because once you, if you have somebody you know as a strong supporter and they have turned out to vote you on the saturday before thanksgiving or something you can kind of check them off the list. You don't need to chase them down on election day. You know, I do think it makes republicans jobs harder by not encouraging early in and male voting among their.

voters, but in the end You know, I'm someone who is generally fairly sceptical of campaigns, impacts on on election and sounds like a good campaign, can be worked, a few percentage points but and then new area that can be cancelled out by good campaign on the other side as well and so ultimately, I think that you know people who want to vote obviously people are proven. promoting through things that are not to their own, but is generally not a huge number of voters and new campaigns. Not everybody who votes on election day, obviously is somebody who's had door knocked on my campaign. A lot of people just turn out to vote because they themselves one about a lot of people who are contact by campaigns say, ok, great thanks by and new than they go about their day. The way they were gonna do it, whether that was to vote or not so it from him. In perspective I get it restricts strategically. I think that probably

Lot of Democrats do believe that early voting helps them. I just don't think that's very well supported by the evidence I think that a lot of Democrats just kind of normal, normative lee support early voting, because it does make a voting more convenient Even if it doesnt increase turn out. It made a kind of allows voting to fit in prison schedule better it's not just the binary of. Does a person get to vote or not it's about how easy it is for them to vote and democrats support early voting. For that reason, alright right, we are going to continue watching this final week of the georgian election, but let's move on and talk about the lame duck session that is getting under way in congress. There's still a little over a month left in the current session of congress, which will be the

ass time for a while. That Democrats have full control of all leavers power in washington before we left for the brake. Some of the most high profile items that Democrats hoped to address were the respect for marriage act, the electoral count, reform act and raising the debts. You and because, for this part of things, my politics brain was turned off. I haven't gotten a sense of whether there are other things that have been added to that docket, since what have you are there other things that Democrats are going to try to sort of pass or address in the coming month? I think those talk that Democrats may try to finally pass a marijuana banking reform bill. Basically right now under because of sort of our keynes if in federal law, marijuana business is even in states where marijuana is legal. Can't generally, gatt accounts at that

because a federal regulations and as a business, you can imagine that that might be quite soon this problem. You just have a huge amount of cash on hand, so there has been a push for quite a while on this. Bill has gone through a lot of different revisions to try to deal with that and to try to deal with some other marijuana. Reform measures and there's also an assault weapons ban? That has been getting some discussion, but I'm, even though the Biden administration was sort of making some noises like they thought. Oh, this might happen it. It seems like there aren't votes for that, so even there there might be some talk. I wouldn't put that one at the top of my list of things to watch interest what about the marijuana begging but will have to watch it

the wires in order from maybe likeliest, to pass, to least likely. Let's begin with the respect for marriage act, which were short of codified productions for interracial on same sex, marriage that the supreme court has already sort of role as president, along with some other things regarding religious freedom that, before the thanksgiving break, had made it through the filibuster. Is that a done deal now? Do we accept all the republicans who helped to get through to filibuster? Well, they ultimately vote for the bill and do we expect us to become federal law by the end of the year or by the time congress changes I would think so they were able to get a pre significant group of bipartisan senators on board, particularly republicans, because I think there are some last minute changes to the bill protecting religious liberty. I think that's how they were will they get a pretty overwhelming twelve support from both republicans and democrats on this measure,

ass. Re alex yeah. There were some religious liberty protections that were added. That, basically were. Caviar, adding that religious organisations like churches or non profit, sir faith based universities can lose their attack. exempt status for refusing to performer a recognize same sex marriages and churches can't be required to perform safes ex weddings, and tat was seen as powerful enough that this bill got some support from some pretty unexpected quarters, including the church of Jesus Christ of latter day saints the mormon church admin. national association of evangelicals to be clear, not all,

Conservatives are happy with this. There has been plenty of pushed back from other christian conservative organizations like the heritage foundation, other important groups on the religious right saying that these religious liberty, protection and are not substantial enough and that this could still cause problems for people who and religions. You just don't believe in gay marriage, but the fact that this got support from the elder yes, church and one of the biggest associations of even jolly is Neither can I think it's a sign of how firmly the debate about gay marriage has shifted from gay marriage, be legal to how do we our vowed protections and exemptions for free it's in institutions and religious people who don't believe in gay marriage and that something

supreme court has had a long line of cases, and I expect the supreme court's. You continue to hear those cases and now it's something that was very important in getting so much republican support for this bill yeah. So there were twelve republicans who voted to advance a bill. They didn't alternately vote on the better was to get it through debate so that it could be voted on were roy blunt of missouri, richard bar of north carolina, shelly, more capital of west virginia susan cons of main donors to of cynthia loom. A white foaming, mister MC caskey of alaska, redeployment of ohio, mitt romney of utah, dent sullivan of Alaska Tom, tell us with carolina todd young of indiana. As folks may know, some of those people are retiring, but what are the soup as is in there, and what is the motivation for voting this through tug young, so little pricing near in there? There are certainly some people on that list, Galen who aren't known for being moderates, but I also like yours like any of the super hard

conservatives, you know it's crews sign out us so yeah, I'm not sure, like anything, super jump at me I just I think it's a new kind of as Amelia said it's a reflection of how the debate on gay marriage has moved and how you same sex marriage, as become normalized even for a lot of people who you know opposed it. Ten fifteen years ago I mean, is there an aspect of strategy here which is like? Let's take this debate off the table, so we don't have to talk about it in future elections or you know what have you I mean cause? It's interesting that, like this specific group of twelve, but not more, but also not less like a it, was kind of like jug. You know just enough plus two to past the filibuster incurious just wide those twelve people. Well, I think, generally, the supreme court and specifically justice clarence thomas created kind of a problem for republicans in his concurring opinion in the dogs, ruling over the summer where

he was saying you know we're not taking up there are issues that are potentially implicated by the Supreme court's ruling, overturning the constitutional right to abortion like same sex. Marriage like contraception, which were supported by a similar legal reasoning to the road ruling he was saying we are not dealing with those in dobbs, but I want to deal with those in the future. I think we want to rethink those and that got a lot of clay politically. I think a lot of people heard about it. It was something that I've heard a lot in conversations with voters, and so I do Think there is a sense in which rub republicans had some extra motivation to deal with this, just because the idea that the supreme court might swoop in and take away same sex marriage protections was coat, is kind of in the Zeit guys to now and

specially after an election where the dobbs ruling already seemed like it was a pretty big problem for republicans. I think this kind of nipping that one in the bud may have beast been seen as a good move, and you know you can they can say you know it's by partisan like it's it's just it's also. Not the law is not codified, same sex marriage in the sense that every its tail, states? What to do it's creating federal protections for it, and it's saying that states have to recognize same sex marriages that were performed in other states, so Don't know how much that mattered, but it's sort of it's a little That is an easier case to make. I think, because it's sort of addressing this question of whether states have to kind of recognize what happened in other states, but it's not a man,

two states or the next item on the agenda is the electoral count reform act, which is a bipartisan attempt to address some of the issues court on issues? I issues you want to describe it that, led to January sixth and some of the avenues that trumps campaign advisers, lawyers whatever and he himself pursued to try to overturn the twenty twenty election. What is the likelihood that this passes and to what degree would change how elections are conducted in america, or counted at least in america yeah. I think this one also has a pretty good chance of passing. I believe that ten republican senators have already come out in favour of the kind of compromise bill, that's being championed by the susan collins and others where's. That would not be enough to overcome the filibuster did even mitch. Mcconnell say you support of it

Yes, miss Mcconnell also came out in favour of this a few months back, so it does seem like it'll, be on a flight path to passing. But basically yeah galen you, this is a bill that would patch some of the the loopholes that were exposed on and January, say twenty one so Some of the provisions include. It would clarify that the vice president's role and counting the electoral votes as purely ceremonial, so you know I'll trumps, theory of my pants kindest overturn the election is clearly debunked it would also raise the threshold for objecting to the election results to one fifth of the members are currently if one member from each chamber objects to say, arizona us, like twelve votes than it. I'm kind of kicks at to debate about that and now require fairly substantial minority.

And it also kind of clarifies things for you kind of the singer. I was that people talked about for a twenty four, which is what, if a state said, to a competing slates of I tore about one democratic and one or republican to congress, which one gets counted and basically clarifies that the Can that the the governor certifies, unless the state law says otherwise is gonna? Be the one that congress counts, it also provides for an expedited judicial review of these disputed electoral votes, so a court would immediately be able to step in and kind of cut the constitutional crisis off at its feet. Hopefully, I'm so so I so you. I think it would go about your a pretty good way too. Fixing some of the the pathways there were exposed in the twenty action, of course, its operating everything a lot of what happens.

Of course, elections are administered on the state and local level. This is a federal bill, so there's only so much that it can do. In addition, I think there is an element of you know it patches the holes from the last time, but that doesn't mean there aren't other holes. have yet to be exposed arms. But I think that in general, I've I've heard kind of positive reviews of this reform bill from people who were concerned after the twenty twenty election and, let's wrap on the debt ceiling. From what I understand, the united states will reach it's debt limit sometime in two thousand and twenty three. Of course, that will be when republicans control the house. If past is prologue, there's some suggestion that republicans will try to use days, raising the debt ceiling to extract concessions from Democrats like spending cuts in certain

as some of the like a redux of some of the debates that happened in two thousand and eleven two thousand and twelve, and so there has been some talk about democrats raising the debt ceiling in advance of any of that happening, to try to get out in front of it and prevent that game of chicken from happening. What how? How is this looking are? Democrats to raise the ceiling. This is something that the Democrats could, in theory, do unilaterally through the process known as budget reconciliation. I think this year it doesn't seem like they have. The votes in the senate to do that, I'm senator Joe mansion in particular, has not signalled that he would be on board. So, even though this is clearly something that the Biden, administration and a lot of Democrats in congress would like to get taken care of, so they don't have to deal with a messy and pull it,

we damage being show down in the first few months of next year. I think this one is less likely to happen in the next month, so politically damaging for whom we any sort of consensus about how those showdowns in two thousand and eleven two thousand twelve shaped public opinion about Democrats and republicans in congress like when, when that happens gets blamed. I think a lot of it has to do with the framing and and Basically, there has been discussion of republicans certain saying: we're not gonna vote for adapt ceiling increase unless you Democrats give us cuts spending cuts that we want, and

Now it might depend on what those spending cuts are if its cuts to something like social security or medicare, then that my reflects badly on republicans, because those are pretty popular policies if the Democrats are being perceived as kind of like one we spend a lot of money and not wanting to agree to common sense budget cuts. Then they could reflect poorly on them. So I think, in some ways it's a little bit of a messaging game, and you know that- raising the debt ceiling as something that americans are not creed about in general and people kind of think about raising the debt ceiling in the context of maybe a household budget or something, and not that that is really a good comparison. But people just don't want the country to go into more and more debt general. If you ask them that question so you know,

Well there. There are opportunities for republicans to leverage this and say: if we're going to do this, then we need to make cuts in other places. But if they're suggesting big cuts to popular programs, then I think that could backfire on them as well. So I think a lot of it depends on how things actually play out alright. Well, we will see, but what's get to our twenty two thousand and four democratic primary draft, so Biden has suggested that he intends to run in two thousand twenty four, but he hasn't been super firm on that intention, saying that he would make up mind for sure. After them, it terms and it's a question. Biden gets a lot because of his age. He just turned eighty and he would be eighty six at the conclusion of a second term. So let's talk about what the alternatives might be in our first post, midterms, twenty twenty four democratic.

draft. I have already randomized the order of this draft using random don or thanks folks over there, and it will go Nathaniel Alex Galen Amelia, and this is going to be a snake draft, because we believe in fairness here at five, thirty, eight and and to clarify the question here is: who is likeliest too weak the democratic domination in twenty twenty four, it's not necessarily who is likely to win the presidency or anything else. That's the question we're trying to answer so is everyone ruddy. I just want to say. I object to doing masts in twenty twenty two gale em, I'm not ready. I think that we got a. We should wait till when you twenty three, I think that would be the civilised thing, but now I'm here I'll participate of comic. Face on, I just wanted to register my disconcert Joseph.

there are already candidates running, so we have, we have. No choice doesn't mean we have to do Now we can wait until january this indirect, isn't even our first twenty twenty four primary draft. I think we did one. Maybe in the first half of this year? It was now devices of war. I would not have condemned that either. This is clearly a site like policy debate that we need to have internally about whether this is appropriate letter, and here now I won't blow it up. I promise a big guy nathaniel. We're gonna try to get through, maybe three or so rounds of thus and will try to motor. I know we ve already so in a good amount of time discussing what's to come in georgia and in congress, but nathaniel take it away with your first draft back? Who should I shoot? A first pick, most likely Democrat

yeah galen. I think I'm gonna plant my flag spiral and how I know wreckage list. I think it's going to be President Joe Biden, that is my tech, I do know, is that when a little less you wanna just leave. Yes, you know I I I think there's absolutely a very real possibility that he does not run for a second term, which will be very interesting unprecedented in modern times, but I I think that is clearly more likely than any other single person right. If you were a kind of a somewhat arbitrarily say he has a fifty fifty chance of running for reelection. Again, then and he's virtually assured of of the nomination. You were to run again. I think you would only get, and probably one or two a fringe challenger from your kind of the progressive wing of the party. I don't think significant. a more moderate establishment figures would challenge him.

So so, yes, I think he's got a critical mass right there and then in the fifty percent of scenarios in which he doesn't want again, you know you'd have you know, that's obviously, a very splintered field, Where are you I might have some call heresy may have simply put a judgment. Have some gave a new some so yeah? If you had, pick one person and if it's to kind of start, the draft off with it's gotta, be Joe Biden yacht, never know, I don't think you're going to get too much argumentation from us against that sir Alex go right on ahead. I'll stick with the vital trend and all say vice president Kamel Harris all choose her for number. Two not happy about it, because I am on his team that I think this might be a little early and I do think fight in allowing ryan on that. For the sake of for the sake of this fine fun game, I will say how to linger us: the reason I say her for anybody we too elaborate is. There is

actually I'm wearing consult survey from December twenty twenty wine to september of twenty twenty two and harris led pretty Neither can we in a potential fields in abide unless twenty twenty four primary, so she had twenty eight percent support as of late september, into her was people to judge who had thirteen percent and then every one else? You know a yo see gave a new, sir may be club, which are they all had been under ten percent support. So I just think, the fact that she's in the white house now, obviously that would be a big boost. Here again to see if she decided to run again. I also think that she would perform well with black nurse who, as we know, resurrected Biden once failing presidential campaign, may think if she could get the support of folks like

I burn and other prominent names in the south, and she could make a name for herself if she you know, decides to run for the presidency. If Biden does step down alright, I kind of feel like I got the worst draw in this draft because I don't get two picks, but I also don't get one of the you obvious ones to start off with none the less. I am going to pick people to judge and I will use history as something of my guide here, which is that it frequently happens that folks, who perform well in the last presidential primary or usually oftentimes, the runner up will go on to win the next primary of course. In this case, that would be one bernard centres. I think that if the argued,

is going if Biden, stepping aside because of his age in part or in large part because of his age. I think that that will be a sort of high profile issue in whatever democratic primary ensues and why I do think progressives might be amongst the most motivated to turn out in such a primary. I think that the time has probably past, although it was. This was like a tight for me in some ways between Bernie sanders and people to judge ok. So now why people to judge he performed. very well in the twenty twenty primary, particularly given that he was a mayor, he won I will carcasses. he performed well. In theory, I mean we don't condone how early he claimed victory, but he ought If did win the iowa caucuses as they were, struck haiti kind of Bernie sanders, one unpopular its

it's. It's ambling oils only population. It is too early allegory debating entirely calculation as if it were more ambiguous. There were they were? There were some sloppiness? I think It's better said the buddha judging centres where the co winners of iowa so once again acting up my eyes. Feeling it's sort of a time between the two of them, but I think, there's other pulling to back up that he is in a higher place. Now. The pulling the alex just mentioned puts him behind calmly harris he has the highest approval rating of any member of violence cabinet. I dont know that that means a lot because cabinet members are usually super high profile, but folks general, Like him, he has some cross over appeal between short of the college educated, portions of the democratic electoral and the more sort of working class portions of the democratic electorate that still exist. Clearly has some issues with black voters, but I think improving his

in recognition over the past four years will help him in that arena. Potentially, I think, and here's where I would why I would how I would sort of pit him against kamala harris, is that, first and foremost, we just already know what their campaigns look like. She didn't make it too. I why he was a quorum quote, co winner and if and I think, that of binding doesn't run, it will become competitive. I don't think that it will be a sort of walk for harris, because I think that there is enough hesitancy about her performance in twenty twenty and her performance, as vice president, that folks will challenger. I think but a judge is, has already sort of the reporting behind the scenes shows that he's already preparing to do so. Should the opportunity arises and yet he has he has some of the things that would make him a formidable candidate which is kind of youth and a sort of cross over between some different parts of the party, but generally

It's trending towards moderate. The issue with booty judge for me is: is his continued or up? I guess I should say continued, but he in twenty twenty. He really struggled with voters of color, which of course, are such a big part of the democratic base, and he needs to figure out how to at least get a critical mass of them, and this see when you compare against Kamel Harris, who would likely inherit a lot of Biden's support, of course, being a woman of color herself, and I I think it's going to be challenging for booty judge to do that, while Harris was not still an option, but also, let me just say that Bernie sanders did really poorly rivers of color in two thousand and sixteen and seemed to increase his performance significantly with hispanic voters in two thousand and twenty based on sort of. king the patch more aggressively and increase name recognition, but he did that also through a very aggressive grassroots campaign in places like california and nevada, that you know he invested in that infrastructure.

The early and the Sanders campaign was known for, really knowing how to do that kind of campaign. I don't know, if I would trust buddha judged to be able to pull out, similar improvement Other things to say about Harris is that I totally take your point about the fact that she ran a pretty bad campaign in the twenty twenty primary and buddha judge ran a much better one, but I'm not sure how much we can draw from this based on the fact that she would be going in two twenty twenty four presumably in of binds not running she's. The vice president democrats and I want a really bloody- primary that fractures, the parties, so she may be going in with a lot of establishment, support more resources. May be she learned from the previous campaign what went wrong

so, while I think it is important to remember that she was not an especially strong candidate for years ago, it's possible that circumstances will change for her. I agree with that Amelia. I feel it could be who knows what will happen, but if there already going to be a fractured republican field, I can't imagine. Democrats are going to want that on their side as well, and if Biden does step aside, I feel like Harris is kind of like thorbiorn. Second she's vice president and the vice president and the present stepping down every has not gonna want a bunch of people to come in and go for her juggler. You know, and then she goes in a super weak candidate when she already arguably has a disadvantage. You know not that like Democrats can control who runs or what have we ve seen from past experience that they can't do that at all, but certainly that would be, I think, establishments preference guys. I think we're starting to uncover the reason but by them is going.

Incentivized, not to step down or step aside for twenty twenty four. It has become more clear as we keep going through this, because it would be a mess. We're not we're not going to stop here so Amelia you've got to pick go right ahead. Alright, so my first one coming in hot off of the twenty twenty two midterms and coming in with a fresh face, and my pick is gretchen scratch. You gotta for several reasons, progression. If a collar and michigan yeah, I know I don't know if it's Take me a little while to get that anyway. So she is has been a very like popular and successful governor of Michigan she's had some ups and downs, particularly over handling of closures, of mass mandates during the cove at nineteen pandemic, but she's coming out of the twenty twenty two men terms with you know really solid victory, and also with Democrats just having done really well in michigan michigan was

real success story for democrats coming out of twenty twenty two, and I think Whittemore is particularly well positioned to run in twenty twenty four. Biden. Steps aside because She has kind of made the issue of abortion. Her issue for years. Now it's something that she's talked about it, something that she's campaigned on in the aftermath of the dobbs ruling. Even before the dobbs ruling she was out there saying I'm going to protect the right to abortion in michigan, a state where it was not clear that abortion was going to continue to be legal now, of course, after the outcome of the ballot measure on the matter ballot it will be, but I think she's really established this as being an issue where she has a lot of credibility and it's a really important issue to Democrats right now. So you know, I think, in a different. Fire men would she come in with.

more eu name recognition, more kind of wind and her sails than any other dammit governor who came out of twenty twenty two with solid margin, like you know, jerry whole of colorado, not necessarily, but I think abortion is going to continue to be a big issue going into twenty twenty four and she's a particularly strong candidate plus coming from purple state being the governor of purple state generally is a really good place to be when your launching a presidential campaign. So that's why I think gretchen whittemore is the first first fresh face. I'd pick, aright I'll take her I'll. Take it. It's not Bernice thanks, gale, any closer is worried and then for my number two pick, I am going to pick a very much not a fresh face and that as Bernie sanders and I hear what you were saying Galen about. If

in steps aside because of age. That does make things difficult for Bernie sanders, who is also quite old, but I think Bernie sanders because his this is so young and because it so enthusiastic hugest. I think he has a sort of claim to vitality. That Biden can sometimes be fine harder to muster. and I also don't, I think, maybe Bernie sanders just doesn't care. You know he will why you know if there is a primary and that Biden is not in, he will want there to be a solid progressive candidate and who is that going to be who's? The person who's going to you know sort of have the same name. Recognition as Bernie sanders have the same campaign. Four structure is Bernie sanders. Like he's done this twice now, he

did better among latino voters and twenty twenty? You know I think he might say to himself hey third times the charm and I'm the best hope for my wing of the party, and you know if it's a really fractured fee. Well, you might be able to pull it out yeah. I I think I think that's right, you know it's. It is like hard to imagine sanders running a third time given how old he is, but I think it's like for, for ass. I guess you know, I think, like that. Saving the parties to be accounted for and he's. Probably the single most likely kind of similar to harris right, the single most likely name from that wing of the party, even though you know he kind of has a lot of you know. You can pick apart at the seams very well, I'm really interested to see. I think he problem won't run. But I'm really, to see what happens to the progressive movement in the wake of Bernie Sanders right. Does he tried to point to somebody and saved this? Is my successor?

or is it going to be five different progressives running, which would let me progress as I already kind of behind the eight ball right, because you know the the moderate wing of the party, the party decides and black voters tend to support moderate candidates and things like that and I would really, I think you know obliterate, they change their chances, but a few It point at somebody- and I won't name names this time, but if you point that point is somebody and says this is my arm, my person. I think that person would be inedible for many of the same reasons that Bernie sanders was formidable and twenty sixteen and twenty twenty alright amelia. You have taken both my second and third picks, so I feel I'm a bit flattering: at the moment. I think we're getting into an area here where it's like who How knows it's really like what kind of campaign would they run? There are obviously structural reasons to think that they would do particularly well and junk

I think I should go with a safe pick lake. You know gap newsome summer amy closure or go with more sort of non traditional peck and for the sake of this game, I'm going to choose new york, city mare. ooh spacing in and out world. I would pick Raphael warnock, but I think The Senate is so important for democrats and obviously there is a republican governor of georgia that, All the party players would strongly discouraged run by warnock, because that would mean one less seat. for democrats going into a year where they expect to perform relatively poorly in santa elections, which is twenty twenty four, but I think he has a lot of the makings of a very strong presidential nominee like he crossed issues of others in similar ways he's a personal favor. He can speak as a pastor. He can speak as a black man. He can speak as somebody from purposes

he can because a young person there's all kinds of, and he gets politics. I think if you watch his adds its clear that he understands that politics are about persuasion and not just your base. But I didn't take iran. I wonder why are they going to be a very strong case for I know- and I think you have very dear raphael- we're not, but he is a moderate. He is black and he is the mayor of a city of nine million people which is larger than lots of states. He also, I think, understands politics in a way that a lot of Democrats that think they're playing to the base, don't really get so. He ran on crime in twenty twenty one in an environment where that was not going to be the obviously popular thing to do in a democratic primary and one here, he has like you know in that way,

Andrew Yang had like no, basically no followers on twitter, but should have got intuitively how the sort of machine politics work, what kind of things to argue how to capture the attention of the traditional media, and I think that that helps in a campaign, especially in a campaign where a lot of people might be mighty. hiring a lot of campaigns, diverse europe more tuned into two. Then what the actual democratic basis tuned into, which is not ultimately super progressing pretty diverse concerned about crime and inflation, and things like that nicely say Galen. I know I kind of picture and I was kind of cheating, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry you bet you did have to work for me. I'm gonna go hadn't, take warnock, which I was already planning on doing before Galen set his name just for the record. Galen you'd made very

convincing points as to why you would be a strong candidate. So I second, everything that you sad, I think a lot of other he would be even viable as a candidate depends on what happens on december sixth, but lay you know you said he could speak. You know he already. She has shown that he can crossover support. He convinced a number of georgian civil for himself and republican Brien camp. He could, I think he could do really well in the deep south, particularly as like me and running in the south? I think it would be easy for him to kind of cool us support and states. Like sir caroline I and just like other southern caesar, black voters really have outsize voice in the electoral process, and I if he wins this run off and the twenty twenty one or on off, like that's a pretty strong message:

Sharon on especially running statewide in a state like georgia under showing that he can, you know if he can fend off. Republicans years in a row. I think that really just speaks to his strength as Politicians- and you know everyone knows how good of funds warnock is as well, so I I think is like a pretty decent argument or why he could be a plausible emphasis. Plausible twenty twenty four candidate, I think, as were kind of getting out. I think this, if nothing else, chat shows more than anything why Biden will probably run for a second term. So my question alex is having strongly considered picking him myself how does he get over the hurdle of taking a sea away from democratic in the sun

that would be. The wine knocked against sam, I think, especially with the twenty twenty four map and democrats, having a lot more seats to defend that, I think will be harder, for them is my understanding but So that would be the reason I say he me run, but you know I think, if the options are you know, there are also some of the other people who have been said. They aren't really. Good hyena women. It is, I think, I mean yeah corn I could say you know if we're in a situation where there's a super, chaotic, democratic, primary and there's. No, you know, maybe Harris is perceived as being weak and you know doesn't hasn't managed to consolidate a lot of support, and you know it could we're not could be making the case that, like yeah you're gonna lose a senate see, but I am your best chance of winning the presidency so in this hypothetical. I think crazy, we're

old. We are spinning here. There is an argument he couldn't. Let's also remember the you know what majorian in twenty twenty two I cannot resign from the senate to run for president brain if, if he wins the run off Democrats If you want sonnets thou that won't cost Democrats the Senate and then there was a special action and twenty four and if warnock wins he can, he prove. Presumably he will carry because of this home state and perhaps carry along the democratic candidate special action there as well. So I think it's that a problem for him, okay, the dominoes- have to fall by its possible and we would officially announced our constant renamed georgia, the voting a state as opposed to the state, exactly and then there will be another run off and doesn't arouses what america will make us more elections

I mean it s. The other argument is if you're gonna lose lose the senate majority anyway. Who cares about one extra ecstasy? But I don't? I don't know how persuasive argument is. Are we are going to snake along here and up next is nathaniel, ok and of any major topics. Ok, last time we did this in may I did for my second and third packs. I did one progressive and one kind of moderate. governor. And those were elizabeth, worn and why cooper stay with that tradition, but I'm gonna change up the names cause. I want to get some new blood in here, so I progressive. I am going to choose ayana pressley from the great author massachusetts, I I think

that she saw everything I said before about you know Bernie sanders and the progressive movement. You know, I think they need to coalesce around somebody or else they're going to be totally divided and and will fall I think presley is really intriguing candidate. If she emerges as the winner of the clinical progressive lane, because she is also a person of color and can appeal to black people, and I think that is kind of the missing ingredient for a lot of for progressive nationally, and I think that a lot of the members of the squad have shown us as Alex, and I have written I have been able to combine the kind of progressive voting base, which is predominantly kind of like white college educated, and along with the voters of color, so a night presley's case back voters in boston and analyses case latinos, and so I think that would also be a very powerful kind of common. Station nationally? So if she were to run, which of course is a big question mark and if she were again

neo. The centres endorsement which may be is is asking too much. I think she would be strong for my next for the moderate governor pic. I will go with Jared polis of colorado. he just had a very strong, mid term performance wing by a believe. Almost twenty points, as Amelia mentioned earlier, I think he's at kind of the house. of his powers for some reason, in what manner I would put em ahead of folks like while I won't say Name's wait. Can you haven't? Has me I'm really pick his name rhymes with paths in gluesome but yeah I'd exactly. So yeah, I you know I I just I think you know obvious again and in the scenario bind doesn't run. Electability is gonna, be important to people they're gonna, look around. Oh jared polis, you know cruise to reelection in a

kind of swing, you stayed getting bluer air, but that's how he certainly off over performed a kind of what what people expected. So that's gonna have a lot of appeal. Ok I'm just gonna, throw wild card out there and have some fun with it and say why not Josh appear. Oh, that's a good one. a car, you know that's a good one Yeah new governor of Pennsylvania just propelled a very far right challenger and beat him. pretty handily. You know think he's. Gonna have a higher profile just because of that in the no going forward? I just think he'll be a name to watch out for I'm gonna, just throwing names out there at this point, but I mean I see him dead he is a viable contender. If this is, if that's the rap, he decides to go, and definitely, if you're talking about coming out our twenty twenty two. He certainly belongs on that ray.

Yeah it feels like the triad is Gretchen Whittemore Raphael. Warnock I mean we have to see what happens next week and that's probably speaking too soon. is speaking too soon and Josh appear. Are there any other, clear stars and asking for a fragment man who might use them as back. man, you know about man yeah. I fishermen me master man knows how to make a tick tock the only qualification for winning a presidential refugee erika. Here sat Genji evo- and I don't blame them I am going to take one for the team and choose our friend the path in a job, and do so and the reason is because he wants it and At this point in the process, I think that is not a bad rationale, because

you know like who is going to actually run like a kind of don't think a kind of them think rather warner run, I'm not sure who knows, but I know that you would run in a war, old, where Biden doesn't run, Gavin newsome is definitely running, and so that at least improves his odds of winning. Why? Why do you think he's evidently running? Well, because Harris yeah is, would be the logical person to succeed. and they have won. Terrorists is the other lake, star who came up through the california political infrastructure at the same time- and that would be- I would it got pretty wild betrayal. I think this is why newson came out the other day and said he wasn't going to run. I think he and Harris gotten a room together, hash it out and decided it was going to be harris. I dunno about that. I think that do you think that governs them as ambitious as he is an as

issues, as he was in the run up to the mid terms, basically starting his campaign talking, first and foremost, about national issues, getting on all the shows etc. Do you think that he is going to watch a whole if people challenging calmly harris and just say, yeah, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna run. We have. We have a pact lake That does not seem. Maybe he's going be compost, deep, california, caliph ticket or war, No one else wants that work, so my children have gone. He wanted water, which at this point I think, is enough of a reason to pick him and to the politics better. Is that scottish teens, as we like to call them clearly know something doubt because they have they. I've? Given him a- eighty percent share they dont know if something is one that we need more democratic nomination behind Mr Biden himself, so that's my logic

Amelia you got the final pack and I'm just going to go on the record here saying I thought I had a pair a terrible draw number at the beginning, and I probably have the lineup that people will be least excited about I'm gonna, I'm gonna end with another politician from georgia, stacy abrams she's you need to do whatever she wants. She lost. The governors were his. She does not have the prob. Any of the problem is that these other people who hold put pesky elected offices have now and in all seriousness she did. She does not have a great winning track record, but she has really good name recognition compared to some of these. Are the people were talking about like someone like Jared polis? Who yes has this credits as someone who has done really well in his purpose? Lee blue steed, but most people don't know who he is, and I ve been going into a primary again in this crazy world.

we're imagining where Biden doesn't run and there's kind of a you know, a scrum between Democrats she's, some one where a lot of Democrats already know who she is, and she already has a brand, and I think that will be useful going into a primary and- and you know she could bring together different parts of the party she's tried to do that with, I think, limited success. So far as as Alex has written, but she was dealt a hard hand in twenty twenty two running against camp, and so you know she might just feel like that to keep the momentum going, Pola, beto o'rourke, because better for her unaware of better off

Also, you can also say foresees that iran's what she wanted. She was always pakistan. She said she would have to be president, so she wants it. Ok, we had everyone wants it. The question is not whether people want it, the question is whether they appear to only want that, as opposed to actually all the other things you can haven't. When I left the country, right right. Ok, so nathaniel you have Biden IONA precisely and jarred, poland's alex you have calmly Harris Raphael. Warnock enjoy shapiro. I have people to judge Eric atoms and who was my who was my. I got a few years earlier. You have gretchen whittemore bernard sanders and stacy abrams or eight wasn't your thoughts on others, when you can feel free to show them, but let's leave it there it. Thank you Amelia Nathaniel, Alex. Thank you makes gallon

My name is given droop twenty child is in the control room. Chadwick Matlin is our editorial director and Emily vanessa ii has been our in turn for most of this year. She has moved on to what's next and I just wanted to say thank you Emily, so much for doing such a great job as our past intern in two thousand and twenty two. We really love having you and we're excited to see everything you do next folks, you can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions were, if you're afraid of the show, leave us a rating or reviewed me apple, pothouse, store war. Tell someone about us thanks for listening and rules. The.