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program, also known as Daca. That program covers about eight. One thousand undocumented immigrants who are brought into the country as minors. These people are sometimes referred to as dreamers, and it the factor protection allows for them to apply for two year. Renewable work permits and the Trump Administration has announced that they are going to wind down and some way, so we're going to jump right into it and use this as a chance to talk about this story, but also kind of what else. Now that we're Post labor Day heading into September. What else is on the plate for a bit, September in Washington. Clare Malone is traveling today, no Clare Malone, but here at the table, editor in Chief Nate, silver, hello, Nate, hello, Jody good. I went to Mexico City for Labor Day weekend, yeah, which I'd recommend, although with the currency, in cheaper. There were more like bros there than I'm used to This is an amazing place that, like more Americans and non Americans, all those present not talking that they saw you and they're like man. There are a lot of press there Jody. I don't think I've

Then you die definition that Wiz kid Harry entered is here as well: hello Harry! I had a wonderful weekend. I went up to the Terry. An area and played some wiffle ball Our guest today is joining us from California. Anna berry jester, who covers immigration among other things, say Anna welcome back to the show, in any any mildly, interesting facts about your weekend that you'd like to share. No, I think it was just kind of watching what was going to happen with Daca. If I'm honest, yes exactly so as well as were many of us and we're just going to jump right in Then we're going to do a good use of pulling that is playing at the end of the show, but this feels like a kind of big pressing story so and we watched attorney General sessions kind of layout. What the plan is here, so you want to walk that through what comes next just for starters. I think having sessions make the announcement was a pretty big statement in and of itself. You know he's been a staunch opponent of immigration reform efforts, he's spoken out against stock. He he's definitely spoken out against Obama's.

Coach towards immigration, which is that you know, was to do several things through executive action when Congress wasn't able to do an immigration reform so his statement was essentially that he thinks Dhaka. The deferred action for childhood arrivals program is an over reach of the executive branch and that it's up to Congress to make a legislative solution. So he basically just said that the pro mister ascended but didn't provide a lot of details and he didn't take questions. There have been a few details that reported outside the state So so, essentially you know the program has approved eight hundred thousand people into it, but you have to renew it every two years and so they've said, is that people who status is set to expire on March, fifth, two thousand and eighteen or before, have one month to renew and then anything that expires after that is going to be set to expire and there

not taking any new application, starting today correct yeah, that's the other important point: they're, not taking any new applications, and those have gone down in recent years for several reasons, but you know they taking any new applications Nate you're watching this is well. How would you characterize the case that sessions was making? Was it a legal case? Was it a line anti immigration case? I think it's kind of a hardline anti immigration case dressed up as a legal case. I mean you know look you can say that the executive branch should not be creating carve outs to legislate, and passed by the Congress that Congress wants to carve out. Then it should therefore pass new legislation so that's kind of the auspices of the policy in the offices of their debate. The fact is, though, that this Something done by Trump to appeal, to slash? Appease his base. The base on this is smaller than it is for a lot of issues.

Talk a lot about the kind of narrower Trump base, which is maybe twenty or twenty five percent of the country is really into Trump. And the broader one, which is a forty five percent of the country that voted for him, on the polling we've seen so far. This narrow are base. That's going to be more, you know more two thousand and twenty I have thirty percent- is going to be on board with this I think in some polls depends a lot on question wording, but in some polls even majority of Republicans oppose sending dreamers home right. It would come to SARA Lee they could be in a state of greater ambiguity for a longer period of time, but this you know, so all these kind of comma sessions is making are meant to appeal to the part of the base and make this a little bit less politically toxic, let's start on that actual twenty five percent that Nate mentioned there, Is this really a direct appeal, an will it

five that that hardcore twenty five percent base well, as Nate pointed out, there's been a number of polls that have shown that at least the principle behind Dhaka

is popular survey. Monkey was out earlier. I believe this month that sixty four percent, at least in that poll, said that they support the pencil behind Dhaka. Last year with the American National Election studies over seventy five percent of US residents, voters said that children illegally brought here and lived in the. U S for at least ten years and graduated high school should be allowed to live and work in the US. But again it depends on question wording now, specifically to Trump's base. It should be pointed out that immigration was one of the things that define Trump during the primary and separated him out from the other republican candidates. Indeed, if you look at the numbers, if you look at the percentage of Trump voters who said that immigration was the top, was the most important issue that a much higher percentage of trunk voters said that than any of the other republican candidates. In fact, Trump got nearly sixty percent of the primary vote. Among those that said, immigration was like the top issue. First is only about thirty percent among all of the other people, so

This is a key issue for his base, whether or not this exact you know recipe that he's cooked up. You know suspending doc and forcing the Congress to pass a bill or something L. People is based. That's another question, but then, if we saw sessions today come out and try to make a legal case, as you said, Nate, even if it's a guys as you as you put it, does that still satisfy the hardcore trump voters which immigration, is my number one issue. If the sort of auspices of this move are procedural about congresses role about I don't think he's having a lot of trouble, keeping hardcore trump is happy halo. That kind of half halfassed nature of the c means that, if he's trying to have it both ways, a little bit On the one hand, he's trying to satisfy his bay and also this is a time when the president has arguably not accomplished. Very much is trying to look for things you can do with executive power. At the same time, it is a somewhat tentative moved to, and some of the reporting suggests that he actually would like Congress to reach

type of compromise or some type of deal. So you know if you're, trying to both please your base and kind of placate moderates. I guess both in within the Republican Party in independence, there's always the chance get the worst of both worlds and often with Trump, because the handling is so clumsily politically healthcare being kind of the canonical example where, you kind of neither satisfy the base Normac. Ertz happy, you know there are, side scenarios for Trump? Where that occurs? Here too, a lot of scenarios, where Congress doesn't do anything- and you put a lot of modern public members- congressman awfully awkward position intentionally because it's probably support to make Daca a permanent or semi permanent in Congress, but like that, would come mostly from demac you know. Could you have a coalition of forty eight Democrats and thirteen Republicans to overcome a potential? Broken filibuster, sure, but Republicans run the Congress, and it's unusual for major piece of logic

an art, must pass legislation to have a. Majority of the Majority Party vote against the legislation so we'll do a little of that vote, counting a second by Anna. Do you wanna get back in here on this sort of tricky framing and the sort of positioning here is Nate? Put it that's how it was put immigration is such a big issue for Trump. As he was getting a lectin, I mean how does it? How does it fit into the promises he was making as sick? As a campaigner, I think it's helpful to talk a little bit of who qualifies for Dhaka to understand why I sort of you know, maybe that with Trump's base, Daca is extremely unpopular, but you know it pulls fairly popular across the board. You know these are people who were brought the? U S, children, but a lot of them are now in their 20s and 30s, sorted by nature of how the program was designed. So these are people who are earlier careers. You know going through school, they had to have graduated from high school or gotten their gd to be able to qualify for the program. So these are people in their careers and not Can you not work without this authorization? You know there's a lot of

fields that you can't get into without sort of licensing that kind of stuff which are prohibited from if you're undocumented. So you know these are people who've, the US invested in they've gone to here, they've done that thing and then now there at the stage where they're, working and I you're asking them to sort of be in the shadows if they don't have this work authorization. So I think it's a group that people have a lot of sympathy for even people who have sort of concerns about it, creation overall, even Paul Ryan, has said in his platform, he's kind of said. You know these. These are people who didn't commit a crime. They were brought here because they were children by nature of the program. So I think those are kind of important things that get lost but are also part of why this program is popular. The other thing to understand is that you know, because it was the program that phased in overtime. This means that people it's up to maybe two twenty. I still have to look at the numbers a little bit, but if it

these out? It's going to mean that people sort of drop out of the program over a period of time like three years and that it's it's very confusing for people. What what that exactly me? for their lives. So why now, then, why an why this particular program that, as you said, has sort of all these occasions, and this sympathy on all different sides- that's, an important point so represent in ten states, several attorney generals and others have gotten weather and said that they were going to sue the Trump Administration over the program today that, if they didn't do something about the program that it by today that they would start a lawsuit and Jeff sessions has said he doesn't think the program is constitutional and so he's not really willing to defend it through the parts Department of Justice, and so that was why you know, that's the deadline that created the action today right and the optic now the Trump Administration being sued, because they're not taking hard enough stance on immigration would have not been great right, that's for complicated for him in the base yeah. So, let's talk about the

Congress here and how you can jump in on this as well, but there's a six month, basically period where they're kicking it to Congress to say figure this out. You like it, you should do it yourselves that yet well, that's according to what we've heard so far, and you know excuse me. If I don't have that much faith in Congress to pass a bill, especially a bill that would need democratic support, almost certainly and a bill that would put a lot of republican representatives in some very clear danger. You know we did some work back during the twenty fourteen cycle during that primary season. Whenever enter of course went down to defeat. You might remember that he was the majority leader in the House of Representatives and what we found was that there was in fact a pretty strong correlation between how Republican Reserve Representatives voted on different pieces of immigration legislation, how they were scored by interest groups and their eventual fate in the primaries, and it shouldn't surprise anyone in this audience to learn that in fact

more pro immigration. You were the more likely you are to be defeated in the republican primary. Now whether or not there is a direct connection or whether it's just a correlation, because immigration stands in for other issues, I can't say, but when you see that- and you see the combined with Trump Immigration's have very dangerous issue. For Republicans be voted on. Immigration is been a non issue in that. If you look at the text- The distillation and you ask people about Here- is some? Why policy? How do you feel then, like public opinion, is like shockingly liberal right? Like shockingly, like you know, they don't want it, anyone in their sympathy toward amnesty for illegal immigrants, etc, etc, but Symbolic part of immigration is quite concerned there's something about how like the kind of text of the legislation, doesn't people's feelings, and maybe it is a way to activate anxieties are different kinds, because

Integration is an issue that crosses over both economic and racial anxiety. To use those to somewhat over overuse raises and kind of symbolizes like because the establishment is pro immigration that hand kind of get to the establishment and showing them who's boss. So So what options then does Congress have right I'm one of their next steps, and I guess what do you see as the most likely path? You know they've been looking at immigrate form for, I think something like seriously, for I think something like sixteen years. So this is obviously a very complicated issue and, like carried Nate said, I don't think people feel like it's very possible for them to pass something. Right now. There are several bills in Congress right now that they could pick up I think people, immigrants, rights activists are calling for them to pass sort of just to clean dream act which would again just apply specifically to people who the so called dreamers right. People brought here as children and

trying to find a pathway for them. But these broader questions around immigration reform. I mean it's hard to see that that's something that this Congress could take up right now It does seem like if we, if, in terms of which which direction the winds are blowing, it does seem like there's a lot of talk about Congress. Actually, even though it's Republican controlled house Senate writing legislation in passing legislation that actually would look a lot like Daca and then sending it back to the Trump White House. Is that surprising yeah. No, I don't think it's surprising that legislation has been around for a bit and in fact, dock was sort of loosely built on the dream, ACT which, which was again was trying to apply to your group of individuals that there's fairly strong agreement upon that something should be done, it's very possible that could get taken up Congress, but it seems seems somewhat Eccles, specifically in the house that they're going to be able to kind of garner the support for that, particularly given there's so much else going on. So

that's, not to say things can change they could. I think that people really do feel there's a lot of the, but also you know we're talking about employees of fortune five hundred companies. Local students law school students. You know there's going to be pressure from a lot of organizations, including big companies, universities systems that kind of thing, so it's not impossible, but it is complicated. They've tried to pass these very legislation before that's not gone through, I mean you could see attempts at a compromise. One thing I've heard floated is that you? Try have partial fund for the border wall tied into Dhaka as part of a kind of immigration reform, control pack, I guess this is, though, is an issue where Trump's lack of popularity could make it harder for him to get any type of compromise bill passed because Democrats might say well you're going to bear the consequences, if you, if you so all these people, home, of course to the frame, it will actually go home or not. So the question does affect quite a

people, I think, they'll, be willing to draw a relatively our line and say it's either going to be clean, Daca So you're not going to have our votes. We have no reason being that, with a few exceptions, maybe Claire Mccaskill or Joe Manchin, or something right. But I see that being kind of where a compromise falls. Art. Is Democrats not having a lot of tolerance to compromise. The present has thirty, seven or thirty, eight send approval rating necessarily in the getting ready to run against that president as being awful awful awful. Here, and I also endorse Anna's point about the house where going to see if the Senate or the only branch of government in town You could kind of see this Senate there, enough kind of immigration moderates in the Senate, even little the docks to pass bill, as I said without the majority support the Majority Party, you could send putting something together. It's even more unusual in the house. The freedom caucus has a lot of power, as we've seen in the house Paul Ryan

at least some ability and by the way this is all going on. On the background in that were in the background, you have like a very busy and chaotic calendar anyway, and so it's it's messy- is the kind of euphemism. Harry any thoughts on the political path that this thing is going to walk. I guess I'll, just echo. What's on our website right now, Congress he has the votes to make Daca law will it I don't know, I don't know. I think that if anything, the health care debate has taught us that trying to predict what will happen to pieces of legislation within the Congress where you have not just Republicans versus Democrats, but Republicans fighting amongst themselves quite difficult, there's. Clearly, a lot of yearning for a piece of legislation. It seems are at least it would be popular among the american public, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to be passed by a republican Congress that piece by the way, which has more words of substance in the ones that Harry just off

at least by Perry, Bacon Junior, it's up on the site right now, you should go, read it. Let's talk a little, Trump's in here because Anna you started talking about how it was curious that he sent Jeff session to make this this morning, Trump tweeted and said: hey Congress, now it's time for you to do your job. Is there any element here of trump? How may even of distance distances is the right word but kind of trying to play it a little differently than how Healthcare was play. And say you know what we're going to take this to Congress. Congress, is going to own this. They have to figure this out and then we're going to sit back and see how this plays out Trump kept pushing to bring health care back up and really wanted that vote to happen. It's hard to see him pushing Congress in the same way for something you know again. He's lately expressed described as sympathy for this group and said that he wants to be generous to them during

campaign. He said he was going to end dock on day one. So it's hard to see him as a president sort of getting behind pushing Congress to pass legislation. It's going to be really complicated and messy and time consuming for them. I mean his tweet Congress Karma, get ready or job Daca exclamation point good kind of is a summary of I think Trump's what was what is their job? As you see it, we as reading that that that's the point break, it could be a lot of that. He has no idea what he wants out of the sound like any is no idea kind of what their job, but we really is- and I don't know he kind of- has a tendency to like you know- it's not like he needs to like pick the fight right now or add kind of complication to his calendar, so sure the kind of motivation, but is there any part of it? Is there any part of this? It's setting himself up for a wind and way will win win where he gets to say you know what no matter what decision, because this makes as if it's the right one, the field expedient. I can play even if it's the wrong one that I could just say that Congress. My view is that seventy percent

people describe as a win, win or lose lose. I mean look at point looking at immigration being actually seven being a tricky issue to handle. There are more ways this could go like badly for Trump, it's like health. Could, after healthcare immigration, is the next trickiest is showing it's trickier than tax reform, which is also true thrill of America like, but you know, is he going to get like. Let's say they do pass a clean version of Daca going to get a lot of credit. For that. You know with this kind of half fast approach I mean. Maybe a little bit but like he's, also going to alienate some people in his base and probably will be not clear kind of what he wanted. It might be kind of jumping on trying to take credit after the fact, and it's confusing when he rescinds we're going by the way you know for better This is an issue where, by all indications, liberals Democrats, to go hard after Trump. This issue, which can make people turn out. It also means that you may have some Republicans.

Initially say. Actually I don't want to all these people out of the country. Well, once it begins, becomes debated and becomes partisan eyes it kind of gets back to that usual. We have we going to have Trump's thirty seven approval rating against kind of everyone else. If I were advising him I don't think I'd, advise him to to do this Harry any thoughts and then we're going to expand a little bit with Anna. I would just say it's very interesting to hear some of the parts of Trump space be against this,

I mean by that- is not that necessarily that smaller part of it, but a lot of evangelical preachers who perhaps were not fast to get on board of Trump during the primary but then came aboard provided critical notes. An evangelical, specially white evangelicals are very supportive of Trump right now. There are still a lot of evangelical preachers out there who have gone and try to argue with Trump or try to make an impassioned plea. For instance, Pastor Franklin looked at Trump. This is a Washington post. Article looked at present jump across his desk in the oval office. Last week I made an impassioned plea for empathy and in the this to me would be one of the more interesting facets whereby there is some parts of Trump space where he hasn't bled that much yet one of those among evangelical voters and they tend to be more favorable towards immigrants than you might expect. Other parts of Trump space to be so that to me, is going to be something. That's going to be interesting to watch to see how the religious community react.

What's going on with Trump right now and we gonna start to wrap up here. But I was wonder if you can just kind of take a bigger scope view and tell us What this moment, this particular act, which is kind of this moment, tells us about the g. His relationship with immigration. We haven't talked about Democrats positioning on immigration, but just kind of its role as an issue for Republicans in our politics in general, one thing: important that we haven't gotten to in this conversation that may determine whether or not we have legislation is that this is an issue. That's going to go away. So we talked about this eight hundred thousand people in Dhaka right now, there's the majority of people are currently eligible, but there's more people. Hundreds of thousands were going to become eligible in the next years, because there are a lot of young adults who were brought here as children. And they are in this same situation, even if they're not currently eligible for the program, so this isn't an issue that just goes away. It's just also hard to quite imagine how Congress is going to deal with it right now.

I mean the other thing here is that, since you know sort of the mid it east I mean There'S- always been a very complicated relationship with immigration and the? U S, let's be clear about that, but the Republican Democrat Divide has grown pretty intensely over the last several decades, where Democrats have increasingly embraced immigrant group have. You know talked about relying on latino voters, whereas republicans have taken a kind of increasingly hardline stance on immigration. Latinos made up the largest share of immigrants who came in the sort of 80s nineties 2000s, but that's shifting right now I if I just think there's a lot of complexity between the politics right like these. Are these future voters, for your party are. How are we going to deal with this issue? and then also the sort of kind of humanitarian issue around the eleven million undocumented people who are in the US right now. You know, I think it's really complicated,

right, and I can't believe I'm ending with that. But it's really well that's a good place to end it, but it is also a reminder that I mean Republicans did kind of grapple with all of this four years ago and came out with a sort of platform, that was much more progressive on immigration and then Trump sort of took another, took another path and was able to become the nominees so right. At any given moment. It's unclear whether how much that projects into kind of what a viable future is for a given party that's an important point in two thousand and twelve, there was this whole moment when the GOP was sort of grappling with what they're going to do about latino voters, an obviously there's been a complete swing over the last four years in terms of the approach here, but that doesn't mean that there aren't many people within the party still who would like to see immigration reform? You know, of course you have the Florida GOP who's been pretty strongly speaking out this week around not ending Daca before Congress can do,

I'm thing I mean you know: you've been a bit of a cat and mouse game going on here, but I think there are lots of people within the GOP who who really do sort of believe in reform, but definitely believe in that and the dream act. The one thing that I would just want to point out why the republican Party- and this has sort of straw with this issue and goes back to just that. The polling may not always be what it seems is Fox NEWS conducted a poll this past June, in which the US, which political party, Democrats and Republicans do you think, would do a better job on the following issues: immigration, despite all of those polls that we previously sided with you know with Dhaka there. Other polls that show that the wall isn't very popular. Despite all those polls, Democrats only hold a two point lead over Republicans on which party do you think would do better on the following issues. So this could.

An issue with individual issues, pull quote unquote better for the Democrats, then the issue is a whole and the issue is a whole may actually give us a better idea of how voters might treat this particular issue Okay, well ended on that side, and we will thank you Anna Berry Jester for joining us thanks as always, and we will have you back on the show very soon. Thanks for having me heard Nate mentioned that this is a very busy September for Congress and the Trump administration it is so we're going to run through a little bit of what we can expect in September that in a minute, but first, a quick word from this week's sponsor this week's podcast is brought to you by boll and branch. You don't need to spend a fortune to the rest you need and great sleep starts with the right sheets and now they're more affordable than you think, with bowl and branch. What makes and unique- is that each sheet is crafted from one hundred percent organic cotton, which means that they don't just feel incredible, but they look amazing,

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show down to avoid default. There's talk of passing a spending bill or stopgap to avoid a government shutdown. There is now Hurricane Harvey relief to allocate and Republicans are continuing to talk about an effort to overhaul the tax code. So Nate one who mentioned the very busy plate that Congress has in September How are they going to fit all of these morsels onto the plate or not let's go join us folks, it's been a fun now I look, I think please the things that are more time sensitive, it's just like when we are busy editorial calendar, guys if you busy editorial calendar or busy personal calendar, things that are not as time dependent, inevitably get pushed back, and so for me, I think that means that tax Warm slash, cuts is going, take a long time to get into motion and how

worried. Should we Americans be about a legit that ceiling showdown, I mean the globalists in the White House seem to be alert to the fact that, like like, I don't think there's anyone right now who has a conscious strategy of using the debt ceiling is brinksmanship, for example. The question is: could you kind of jungle? Your way there, where you know I mean it's possible, I don't know you know five percent or ten percent chance or whatever else. I think it's kind of roughly what the conventional wisdom is as far as markets are but like the dynamic that you had under Obama? Is that Republicans had some leverage? Because if you have this big economic cry, this or even a small, medium size, economic, fiscal crisis, financial crisis that could potentially her economy. Obviously, in that could hurt the president with them controlling all branches of government. It would be purely

active to have a recession or financial crash triggered by congressional ineptitude the scenarios were talking like not just like Democrats, winning the house, but like the scenarios were like they win like sixty or Let me see I mean it would be catastrophic to add, for them a republican triggered recession the other problem- and so you know, if you believe in like kind of halfway, rational, they're, going to try really hard to avoid it, but I see it more as like concern. In Congress being asked being the cave on a lot of issues and that kind of building resentment, Paul Ryan toward establishment, Republicans not navigating it all, Well, an that resulting problems on eg

tax reform or now to Dhaka too. I I think the real question I think trouble sign. Almost anything. That's put in front of him to be honest with you and, in terms of you know, passing a spending bill in order to avoid a government shutdown. Why? I think the question is: when is the point that Speaker Ryan goes to Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats and says I don't think I have the votes with him I carcass in order to pass this bill. That, I think, is that the question we've seen the freedom caucus over and over and over again be a thorn in Speaker Ryan side. Their big thing is spending and and to me. If you want to be able to continue the government you're, probably going to need some democratic votes and that's not guaranteed, perhaps Republicans will be able to pass something on their own. But if past is any prologue in this situation, it's going to require democratic votes within the house, then perhaps some democratic votes within the Senate. In order to

this whatever it needs to be passed, but is what's interesting about that moment? The fact that Republicans are reaching out in that way or that Democrats then, for the first time, have a chance to really concert there. I think it's both. I think it's both- and I guess what's inches most interesting to me- is that you know Trump really doesn't seem. I mean look, spending starts the congressman goes to present, but the fact that Trump just doesn't seem to me to be much of a player, and that is quite interesting, given that he is the president of the United States. There's been some talk of what a fact Hurricane Harvey will have on all of this I mean specifically in on all the money. That's been allocated, the billions and billions dollars are being allocated for recovery. Thank you getting tied into some of these right and shut up right, and it's not particularly clear if it will or whether it will be a supplemental package or weather, will be or will be tide directly. An again what's interesting to me is the regions that were most affected by Harvey. Mainly text.

In the south. These are where a lot of these freedom caucus members reside, and they were people who did not want to some would argue, played footsie when it came to Hurricane Sandy Fund. And try that was funding. That was also tide into a lot of other daisy chained like every right exactly exactly, but in this situation we have the added layer of complication whereby it's their region and so uh, I entirely clear what might happen I don't think anyone is entirely clear. What might happen my guess is there will be some sort of supplemental package. I especially given that you know the votes in the north will be there for it. You know, even if you're Peter King, a republican representative from Long Island whos, still very upset over what had occurred with the funding with hurricanes any he said that I'm going to vote for the package. So my guess, as as a supplemental package, but I don't know. Do these moments where you know we have these big disasters. We Congress has to allocate money, do they have a kind of larger effect about getting people to think about and and elected officials

think about the role of government. You know how we spend our money all these things, or is it just like take care of this thing and then move on? I mean Have some regional XI know in regions that were affected by Hurricane Sandy. For example, they voted more for President Obama in twenty twelve and they had earlier in the did a little bit worse than he had this earlier? So there could be some effects in Texas, and in Florida, saying hey government helping out and helping to How old is not a bad thing? Necessarily, you know I'm convinced that it will have a big feels, philosophical effect on how other Americans feel, although if we do have a Show where the? U S is hit by two or three or four major hurricanes this year. Frankly, it might affect public opinion on climate change,

be careful here because there's all types of debates about number one. What, if any attribution, can you make of any particular weather event to climate change and number two, their questions on kind of what effect on change actually has on hurricane formation roughly speaking, the consensus when I studied this issue more a few years ago, was that it will cause bigger storm. Not necessarily more storms, but that could affect things quite a bit potentially to one other thing I just point out with in terms of Harvey and any effects from any after hurricane to so far. In fact, despite Trump not being approved on many of the things he's done in office, a lot of the preliminary polls to suggest that Americans at least more approve and disapprove of the job performance that he has had. So I don't know how that necessarily impacts the spending debate. I too much, but it is an interesting side note which may give try

a little bit more leverage when it comes to how Hurricane Harvey or any future hurricanes spending is sat down and on the spending bills in general. Do you expect a bigger fight there than a showdown over the debt ceiling? I mean? Is the chance of a government shutdown over spending bill, bigger than government default over at that ceiling? Showdown sure I mean it, I that that would be my guess, but I I mean look. Congress just gets back in session today, so I think this is one of the things I have to watch develop a little catch, one email at Lee, yeah for yeah the tests that we start to ask these questions made any for thoughts on what's what's going on so then we've got this whole conversation. That's in the wall, which is also kind of harder which is out there and it's part of this conversation and has been tied to the spending bill? I mean you know we haven't heard as much from But my lawyer in the Russia Investigation recent remember, you know a month, such as August when Congress was in, access- and there wasn't like a lot of news trump- can make

a lot of news both intentionally by provoking things an because sometimes things are on the brink of being crises, come seemed like more chaotic and not less chaotic under this White House, but we're going to be, adding all the other things come up at random. In addition, to all the things that are scheduled. So that's part of the crunch to okay. Well, we will be here to talk about all those as they come up, so let's start to wrap up, but actually, as I mentioned at the beginning, we're going to do good pulling bodies pulling now at the end of the show. So what's my line Let's say, let's start with a question like that from time to time. Let's end with a question we'd like to start with from time to time, good use of polling or bad use of pulling a lot of people flag. This for Us Harry, I think you got it did a bunch- if you ever check dimensions, you probably would have seen it as well, but I would I ever check my mentions here. Is the

All of the lot of people flags for us, both in our obviously polling center corner of the world, but also the internet in general. I think paid attention to this The top line. Number of the pole is this. Forty percent of people pulled in a Fox news poll say that the media poses a greater threat to the United States than white This is do forty percent of people polled say the media poses a greater threat to white to the United States and white supremacist. Do will that number in a second harry. Actually, first off he just tells this comes from Fox NEWS polling. Can you clarify Fox NEWS polling is pretty reputable yeah? No, I I I Dana Blanton, who helps run that division great person, very smart, it's a good Paul! They you know back in the past. It has. Although our poster ratings are low

Our data has a good score and that news division over there just by perhaps what some of our audience might think about the opinion side there, the news division there, and certainly the polling division there is- is more than happy to okay so eyes, because I saw a lot of people reacting to this by seeing Fox news and kind of you know putting in a bucket or whatever. So it's worth that disclaimer every time. Every time we talk on the phone, This is full, but Nate, the actual number here. What do you? What do you make of that result? It's bad if in what sense is it that it's bad that that big, think of the country thinks that let me look critical of the media here too, to me white, supremacists, first the media, even with the very very nickel view toward the it to me that you shouldn't really be all that close It is a little bit of a troll

question, I guess I'm not sure people are quite taking that literally you mean the respondents, maybe aren't taking it literally or I would argue perhaps they are taking it almost too literally I mean you could argue that whites the surf you is what you're going to yeah. This is a white supremacists are few number, thank God right, and so, therefore you know they're less threatening who are greater in number? I wish list, listen I reminded him able, as he's trying to sort of parts to this very close reading of this poll. No, I'm I'm saying moral. You know PPP does, which is not. In my view, is solid polling organization is Fox NEWS right. You know a lot of little kind of fairly sketch yeah that is kinda sketchy like questions and take them like way too literally, and I kind of feel in polling. If you ask someone a stupid question, you should not be,

rise and you get a stupid answer necessarily, but you know this question seems designed to provoke. A little bit, but like kind of, even even with it said it's a it's a pretty since us tracking number, but but here I think, you're, I'm we're talking at this last week. I think we both have the same reaction that you know even that that that this feels like a viable question, to ask in this my meant it's not as much joy as much as the result is the fact that this question is being asked and is being and it comes from a place. The kind of people understand the context in which one would ask this question right. Right then, and there were a number of questions. This wasn't the only one in this Fox news poll that you know we went down that path whereby I wasn't so far. It's so much surprised by the results of the. Perhaps this was a little bit more know unfavorable towards the media that I might have expected. But in terms of the questions that were asked, there was also a question whether or not Trump would complete his term. Which is a crazy question to ask when you know you're

It's been a year into a presidency. I think you know my new polling We have on the website. There were only two other presidents were they, where questions were asked during their first term. You thought they would resign or be impeached. An one was Carter during and after the speech and seventy nine. He started in seventy seven, so it wasn't his first year and the other one was after Eisenhower, had a heart attack in fifty five and besides that, you know, draw the design questions or whether you get to the end of the term, were instance of the second term. So the fact that we're asking these questions about Trump at this point less than a year and gives you an idea of how unusual this presidency has been so far and going back to this poll about lights, versus the media I mean. Is it a sign Nate that the ground has? really shifted because of Trump's doing. I guess in the way that- think of the press in this country.

I mean it was on a downward trajectory public views of the press anyway, but yeah I mean there's no doubt that that's kind of what Trump has used to egg people on right and in some ways like the issue that unifies the broader republican base is dislike of the press, and I see lots of problems in my twitter feed. People you know you know casually who like May. Actually, be on board, with that much of what Trump is doing but does feel like he gets a hard. And from the media and so and so yeah I mean you know I mean this is like you could argue that Trump's single most prominent message most consist yes, that he's been the most bandwidth on is that the media is corrupt in the media. Staying and you shouldn't trust the media. Gray court to his appeal. What you were just saying, I mean that's really interesting, so what you're kind of saying is, I think, a lot of people view him taking up this stance of fake news. Back in the media as a sort of like narrow

it, just a check up, you're saying is more now, everything is very, is narrow, but, like you're saying he's embracing a sort of broader idea and a sense to in doing that, the more popular look, I think that the media bash Bing, for Trump is more tactically, savvy than than a lot of stuff that he does right high times it's a river, if you wanna say oh there's, some thirteen dimensional chess and like now, sometimes just being a dumb ask Trump, is right, and sometimes it things that feel good impulsively he's doing things. It gets bad advice from Jerrod Kushner, who we must say, was opposed to rescinding Daca or whatever else, but the media stuff number one. It tie together a actually larger segment of the republican base and number two. There might be something fact that if you kind of plant the seed in people heads that it's fake news, even though people actually say they trust news are going nations include the ones in the more than Trump it does create doubt it does create uncertainty, that kind of classic authoritarian

play, I don't think Trump's been a very effective authoritarian, but he is borrowing. Muratorian Playbook, on the media, where, if you can't trust information that doesn't make a lie any truer, but it does not like you're confused right. So I think all that is part of a you know, I'm not sure again if it's a deliberate strategy, it's kind of just like that's the kind of key that Trump happens to hold, and it opens up a lot of locks right now. I suppose, including ones that make him more successful with the republican base. Final question Harry on this on this poll, whether it's pretty simple- and that is the point- is there any element of it being inappropriate or it's just not a good move for fox or any to even ask a question that is framed this way. Should there be any sort of fault put on the

so for even asking the question, or is it just like? If it's a legit question, then you can pull. I tend to be a first amendment guy on the white. If it's a legit question you ask it am wall. Perhaps I'm not sure I would have asked that. I think it's perfectly a legitimate question given what's going on in the news right now, but I should point out just because something is popular on popular doesn't make it right correct. You know Martin Luther king with somebody who is not seen to favorably in this country from the MID 60s onward and obviously now we view him very, very differently. The march is that he put on or help you know, organized were not viewed particularly popularly in the MID 60s, but now are so. I have no problem with the pollsters asking the questions it's up to us in the media to help correctly interpret the questions in the responses that are given. Ok, we're going to leave it there, Wiz kid Harry and thanks to you, as always my play

Thank you, Nate Silver. Thank you for joining us. My pleasure. Thank you. Just stole Harris answer. Clare Malone will be back next week, we're going to leave it there. My name is Jody Avirgan. Gay Landruk is our producer or politics. Editor is Michael Cohen. Toni Chau Alice Wilder are in the control room. This is our intern Alice's final week with us, so thank you. Alice for everything you've been fantastic, you can get in touch with by emailing us at podcast at five hundred and thirty eight com. You can also, of course, tweet it us with any questions or comments about the show and by us I mean everyone but Nate, because Nate doesn't read his if and this show him you read- your mentions twitter is great, but not the mentions. Are you kidding me your phantom Jody specifically range leave us a rating review in Apple podcast when you leave it rating. It helps our rankings and, let me tell you, make those regions mentions, but you read every single Itunes review that comes with not really want it. If you want to get a message to Nate, leave it in an Itunes review, it's terrible advice for any journalist out there, don't dimensions.

Jody is a good role model here. That is ultimate listen to this podcast thanks again for listening and will see you soon,