Here's the Golan Cross, emanation, yeah, ok, tear the person down to hear that from my right. It's going to be hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. My name is Jody Avirgan this week. It's time for another five hundred and thirty eight debate. We did this once before will each be assigned a position to argue, and we will do our best to make the case just a quick recap, I think, pretty obvious. I won the last one, but we'll see what happens this week jokes this time. The question is: how should Democrats approach the issue of impeachment we have all been assigned a position and we will debate that the people here Debate, o Rama, hey guys, She find a welcome back. I know it's been a couple weeks available on Comcast 'cause. That's what happens when you take one week off. Then it's been a couple weeks since I've been on the broadcast. To get the house model ready and then up in Maine second congressional district not see a sink

call sign of support for Trump wow yeah. Literal sign or a sign. No literally like I saw it one sign for what's his name, Eric Brakey like the slightly eccentric republican candidates then it jumps. I went there balance for trump yeah, but, like you think you see a bumper sticker or something right. There was no sign of ok, Peggy Noonan. Take it easy right here as well: Clare, Malone, singing politics, writer, hello, hey Jody, managing editor, Michael Cohen, hello, Micah. Let's start in the start, like the ring of that managing editor, yeah yeah maybe it'll distract people from the fact that your name sounds almost exactly like Michael Cohen, Michalko. And then did you guys see. There was a Michael Cohen arrested in Chicago man arrested for threatening conference where Jeff session said lock her up his name MIKE Michael Cohen, you found this week.

Google yourself several times a day, you have a google alert for your own. My friend, my friend, has a Google alert for my name and sent it to me. Only only true friends do that exactly her mothers so, in addition to the debate on today, show we're also going to preview Tuesday's primaries in Arizona and Florida, which are two key states for control of the Senate and before we get any of that. Maybe I thought we could take a few minutes to talk about the death of John Mccain, Claire he wrote his obituary for the site that went up over the weekend. He had a reputation bucking, his party for being independent. Kind of the main way to look his legacy and does that make him stand out within the current republican Party yeah? I think John Mccain has a complicated legacy in some ways. You know we certainly took a look at his political life kind of post two thousand. And she'll run, which is sort of when you know he owned. The map label it a little bit more. He was pretty critical.

Bush years of the administration's use of torture, while also being very supportive of the initial invasion of Iraq, and I later on in his career after the two thousand and eight election, you saw John Mccain, very much kind of hewing to the republican line he became pretty. I don't know if I should say hawkish on immigration during his relax. He certainly was into the city S sort of nativism of the Republican Party, and you're. Certainly seeing that being recognized by, I think I mean in general, has gotten a little bit of a geographic treatment by the political universe, but then you also say see people who are saying listen. He introduced us too.

Sort of racialized politics of Sarah Palin and then sort of rolling into the immigration stuff. So I think it's you know it's interesting, it's hard to it's hard to place a sainthood on a politician, because politicians are politicians and they take positions to win. So it's so. He did have like a Mav Ricky reputation that was during the Trump years, burnished once again kind of a little bit of a flashback because obviously can very much bumped heads with Trump. The pale and episode to Maine encapsulates Mckay man that he puts Palin on the ticket because he's someone convinces him, that's the best way, to win, and then he left craziness go on for awhile, you know and there's she's saying all types of sort of race, baiting things and he doesn't say anything and then at the end he says something and he pushes back- and he kind of had this moment of principle and and that to me is is Mccain. I mean look like, let's not mince words here, Mccain started, bucking the GOP

in the run up to two thousand when he wanted to make a splash right. When he was going to be running against George W Bush, he knew George W Bush would have the establishment republican behind him he needed another lane to go, and then before two thousand and eight he's going to be add establishment lane. He starts towing the party line, I'm not saying to criticize him, I'm just saying it's like he's a politician. So how much is it worth and so now within that he was a freaking or hero and within being a politician he was a fairly principled politicians as far as politicians go and the key was more or less a conservative Republican, not yeah Party line Republican Place, Barry Goldwater with Goldwater's like blessing yeah, in any. He would, but the party in somewhat unpredictable ways, not always on kind of plastic, left right issues, but often issues like campaign, finance and stuff. Like that I mean I don't know, I'm between a few different things, one of just kind of like look. If

One dies, then you're allowed to like put a greater weight positive aspects. You know it's not like I'm trying to, but you know obvious shipping lines for many reasons, including his heroism, but also the fact that he is such a contrast to Trump. Notion of decency and people. Forget that, like in some ways the seminal event that I don't want to say that kind of launch Trump's campaign, but like when trashed Mccain's heroism and he actually remain steady or even increased in pole it's kind of like that original sin. I suppose right well. That was an event that people thought all this is going to tank him there's no way he can survive this right and then, like thirteen different other, right, but that was like the first real event. Like. Ok, something is different. With this GOP electric people like us were slow to recognize it, but something is different with Trump. He kind and shoot someone on Fifth Ave proverbially and get away with it. You know, so this is different than New York

Times Obit, which was one of these just massive, really impressive, sweeping obits spent a long time on Trump and Mccain Claire. How much do you think the trump a narrow this final chapter of Mccain's career is going to color the way we look at him. Long term Well, I mean, I think, in a lot of ways, the most defining periods of life is early experiences as a prisoner of war and his later experiences as this sort of You know thirty year, veteran fighting for a party that doesn't exist. Anymore are going to be the lasting impressions that we have with Mccain. I mean his vote on the skinny repeal, basically killing Republicans chances to repeal Obamacare was purpose. Dramatic I mean, I think one thing to remember is Mccain loved being in the spotlight he loved media members, one of the reasons why he became kind of a thing in two thousand was because he let it

reporters on the straight talk express and then talk to them. You know like he, he could shoot the ship and I think people kind of gleams that an debt, because I mean listen. John Mccain was a politician. All politicians bullship right. They say things they manipulate positions, they manipulate words Kane seemed a little bit more willing to kind of say what he actually thought. He was a guy who had a temper people with tempers, often say things will often shoot from the hip, but I think the You know the Trump criticism kind of tide, the essence of Mccain up and where the essence of the Republican Party was like Trump was attacking. That version of the part that version of the party I mean in my right up. I called became sort of an honorary member of the greatest generation because he came back from an incredibly unpopular war had spent five years and pretty prison conditions and Trump Spence, as people pointed out Trump once called like avoiding Stds

Manhattan like his version of Vietnam. For so those are credit card line so so bring that to you know to to eighteen, and to watch those people with two people with incredibly different lives, one of whom lost the presidency, one of whom won the presidency for this Republican Party man can you get a starker contrast, and I think we should note that Mccain asked that Obama and George W Bush speak at his funeral and he asked the Trump not attend. I saw slate headline. I thought put it well, which is that Mccain was a partisan but like an honorable, partisan and trump is just kind of a nihilist. As far as politics go, it's uh, big difference. Well, yeah I mean Mccain is like the Republican that Democrats sort of want to deal with approval rating is higher among Democrats than among among Republicans yeah, but the kind of question have ok. I think Democrats have operate on the working assumption, which is obviously maybe not in a sexual strategy that, like

party is acting in good faith and Mccain. I think embody at all. Again, you know he voted with. Trump was off the most you still with Trump with it in our rating system. Eighty five six percent of the time or something, but you know, but making took positions to against torture, that kind of endeared him to the democratic side and obviously his an obvious trump patriot right and there is something to be said for the way you comport yourself. Yours, there's your positions and then there's just the kind of comedy of how you how you go about things, my make a very quickly. What comes next sort of nuts and bolts how's. He get replaced with his replacement, it kind change the agenda on the center. I mean what are the sort of practical politics in twenty eighteen fallout from this? I don't actually think his so the governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, will appoint People can use, keep that in place the,

five Arizona on appoint a replacement. I saw reports that they will wait till after Mccain's funeral to do so. I don't think it changes the Senate math that much in the sense that you know Mccain had had not been in the Senate for a while now, so you will makes it better for Republicans if you get like a part yeah, yeah yeah. No, that's yeah, that's true! So it all indications are that you know they will appoint a sort of reliable Republican and Mccain Stad, and so in that sense you, you know you're, probably replace saying someone who who did buck the party occasionally with someone who's who's less likely to competitive seat. I mean first of all, if I can a lot. It is kind of silly that you have to wait. Two one slash two here's to have an election you know in the house, any vacancy is replaced with immediately, don't have an interim appointment, arguably the reverse in the house, one

It doesn't matter that much so just wait until the next election. Where is in the Senate, you should hold the seat open until you actually able to have an election, but that I was standing it's a little bit because it's going to be another competitive seat in twenty twenty general being appointed incumbents in our model. We treat comments is not the incumbents really right that if you haven't actually been elected by the voters, you don't necessarily benefit all much, but there is some strategy there. Where do you want some his reliably ride? Do you want someone who can win a tough race in two thousand and twenty Do you want someone who is a relative of John Mccain, perhaps one advantage of waiting until later. This is that you have had the primary in Arizona So, for some reason, the establishment candidate mcsally loses that primary, which is not likely but possible. Then you can appoint mcsally to that seat. We have like various ways that that could be played, but most of them actually frankly benefit the Republican Party in the short term or trump at least

is an excellent segue Nate. Thank you for doing that, because we are going to talk about the primary in Arizona and the primary in Florida which are coming up tomorrow, Tuesday. But first let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by we. Whether you're a team of two or two hundred at we work space matters from single, solutions, an innovative amenities to flexible private offices designed to grow along with your head count. We work, gives your business space. You need to connect, focus, build and succeed. We now has over two hundred and eighty locations across more than seventy cities in twenty four countries around the world, making it the perfect partner Next satellite office, regional head, is our remote employees. Your team or send over one slash three of their lives in your office space. So why not make it exceptional everything from it in maintenance, the security Cleaning Wellness programming, an cold brew on tap, is handled by. We work, let's be honest, that's the most important part, great coffee. Right there on hand, we work

it's the intentional design, infectious energy and outstanding service. Your team needs in order to just show up and do what they do best visit. We work dot com right now to find a location near you today. All Vachanas you heard Nate mentioned there is an election in Arizona tomorrow, also an election in Florida, both states having primaries for their Senate race, let's There with Arizona someone want to take, take us on a tour of what to expect tomorrow. Arizona has been an interesting political state in in past couple of years this republican primary features Martha Mcsally, who is a member of Congress. It features Kelli Ward, who is a who ran against John Mccain and two thousand, and sixteen Ann is seen as fringe e Trumpy an then, of course, feature sheriff Joe, who is also seen as a little fringy trumpy, but

there's also a portion of the Arizona Electric. That's kind of in there for a long time because Joe are Pio has been elected by the people of Arizona for quite some time, having pretty screwed up. In conditions and sort of running on again these like race, baiting, national sort of sort of five campaigns makes alley is leading, and that is who is expected to win. I think our pile kind of got in our pile and it's sort of the the spoilers Kelli Ward, who again is leaving Perma candidate and then you know mcsally will Klay when and face Ackerson Cinema, who is kind of a conservative ash Democrats, and that will be an interesting race and cursed and by the way, great spelling on that k, a Y r s t e n. I like that. I, like her last cinema and the GOP primary, though, if Mcsally wins and she's, the favorite she's done a pretty good job of not letting ward claim. All the

Venus, so you have really three GOP candidates who are like flavors of trumping a so you kind of have to embrace that now in Arizona, yeah. Frankly that ours is that kind of state you make. Did you paint before the break that mcsally might not win, because the last few holes have are up twenty eight thousand nine hundred and thirteen. Well Jody. Yes, you know and you can't you know whether you can trust man, you can't trust pools of uh uh primary I mean not all of us had spent the week in Maine Knee deep in Senate I can switch. You are so tell us what you found. No like polls primaries aren't that reliable, and so you know I mean it wouldn't be like it would be a big surprise if she lost it would not be the world's biggest surprise, though, because you have like you know how much money I think, pollsters kind of kind of gave up on the receptor it it like. It wasn't six because they were hoping for, but you know, turn out, is really low and like only the kind of Trump loyalists come out right, but you know- It is a little bit listless where both are Pio and Ward. Don't really soon,

meant I'm, so it will be a big shock if she lost but like, but you can't look at sporadic bowling and say I'm going to go to my grave certain that she's going to win you're going to have to read the fivethirtyeight dot com live blog to confirm but yeah and by the way, if Mcsally lost, then you're either Warder are Pio is a republican candidate, which is amazing news for Kirsten Cinema who wants to run against one of those two I mean it would be as close to throwing away a Senate seat as you can get from her or said they would really be hurting their chances Florida mega. What's on the docket tomorrow in the great state of the headline rates. There is also the Senate race between and the gubernatorial primary know, sure sure so I'll be sending. You do gubernatorial

the gives the incumbent senator there bill. Nelson Democrat is I'm in trouble. It's in in surprising trouble. I'd actually be curious to to hear people's thoughts on why but he's likely to face Rick Scott, who is far just current governor and he has a lot of money and a lot of rain name recognition and all locations. Are that it's a close race? Why that race is so close like. Why does Nelson seem to be in more trouble than like mansion? You know with a couple of swing. Voters who happen to be my and uncle, I think is that it's a combination of Scott having performed, I kind of traditional gubernatorial duties so after after the pulse, shooting yeah after shootings and hurricanes and stuff like that right kind of the bread and butter.

Governing an it's- a sense that, like Nelson is past his parameters last lost his fastball. I mean, I think you know in a state, that's purplish with the Florida outside of residential race little bit more red than people realize right, but you have like a purple. A state in play blue environment and you have an incumbent, you kind of have to have I think Nelson be a week caddy and Scott be a strong candidate to make that race competitive with that said. I would guess that when we launch percent model, the kind of fundamentals part of it is going to be like hey, you got an incumbent. Blue year. You know really, you know, is it going to be. I mean you could imagine now only winning by two points, but you know I know there are a lot of Senate races that, like the other ones, to New Jersey, we Democrats shouldn't Like sweat it, but maybe maybe do potentially yeah, I mean, I think

a lot of the Senate races also come down to like with mansion, for instance, in West Virginia. I think the mansion name has recognition beyond just Joe Manchin. You know like your family, your family plays into this like, and I think that's a little bit with the Rick Scott thing. It's this. It's the state level reputation that goes beyond like the math. That do, which is what's the perception Claire throwing shade at our math commands? Are we could map in general to the girls listening to this podcast do well in Calculus just to be clear, too Is the prime time ran out talking about the general and and yeah we're talking about the general, because Nelson and Scott are virtually sure winning the primaries, the interesting primary as governor when a toilet, democratic side of things, so you've got Glenn, Graham and Philip Levine, as kind of the top two people. So Phillip Levine is the mayor of Miami Beach and then this guy

your gillum, who is a Bernie backed type, is the mayor of Tallahassee, Gwen Graham is kind of a more centrist Democrat. She is a woman, as people named Gwen Typic. And I think, such a weird thing to say this is the kind of Trojan analysis we come for your paper towels and her family sex, gender breakdown of Maine. I think that with Martha. Mcsally, by the way, if she were a man with the less mcsally that would be confusing, or the first name Martha.

Anyway, Glen that, Graham, I think, is seen as sort of you know. She is, she could baby wins. Perhaps some of these let's say eight disillusioned, conservative women who have who are may be leaving trample little bit. Would she be a person that they would vote for in the John, well, that's kind of her thing, also she's, a woman in the year that we have deemed the the woman, that's kind of the Florida thing, there's, but there's also a couple other candidates. So it's a little bit of a crowded, it's like a filly in there. Yeah you've got some it's Florida, so there's like property billionaires, blah blah blah Green is the billionaire like a key, was a basketball player. Now is a basketball player, not not Jeff Green, that I know think. I still think that thunder. I get it I have some previews coming up on the site. Is that right and then we will be live blogging. This is that correct yeah. Review going up tomorrow morning, Tuesday morning. I'm so read that Nathaniel Ray Catch will have lots of information for you to look at and then

live blog night will launch at like seven and will go to. We have winners. This is probably also time to mention that there is a model talk episode coming on Thursday, with Gail Emma and Nate, sort of mentioned briefly he's working. Next models, but if you have any questions I'll, just throw this out there. Now, if you have any questions about the house model now that we've been living with it for ten days or so a couple weeks, you can email pod. Fivethirtyeight dot com and they will they will take them on on Thursday. But let's leave it there. Let's stop talking elections and, let's. Debating. It is time for our second. Ever five hundred and thirty, eight debater Rahma at least second officially sanctioned the bitter am, I feel like we often just fall into five hundred and thirty debates hey remember that about a month ago, we debated President Trump's relationship with Russia. Today's question is: how should Democrats approach the issue of impeachment

we had a guilty plea from Michael Cohen Anna guilty verdict for Paul Manafort Democrats are getting the question plenty from the press, so we're going to debate from a strategic perspective. What Democrats should do basically, what's going to happen, is we've been each assigned a position to argue we're going to each go around and make an opening statement. Then there will be examination after that opening statement and then at the end, we'll All discuss in each person will be able to make one closing argument. Uh when I'm bored with that so format it vaguely resembles the format of high school debate. Let's I get into this debate and go around and say which position we will be arguing, and then we will start. This was not randomly assigned an. I am going to go first as I did last time and I will be arguing that Democrats should be talking impeachment now and campaign impeachment in this mid term cycle, and you have a minute I have a minimum, so Claire going to be after main great my debate topic

is stay quiet and plan on impeaching after the midterms stay quiet during the midterms and peach after third will be mates with. Saying, let Miller be your north star, wait for the molar report to be filed and then make a determination as to what to do Michael will be going last, arguing that they should not impeach Trump period before two thousand and twenty right so wait and let two thousand and twenty design basically well. That might be part of my argument, or maybe not, but my position is not impeach Trump before two thousand and twenty ok, alright, I'm up first. First, let me just point out the last time this that was part of your ninety second, what's not I'm just pointing out, Last time I was tasked with arguing that there is no collusion whatsoever and now tasked with arguing that they should start impeachment right now. Let's range that is range, I'm display ok, snap, on your mark you get set. Oh, I believe that

that should openly and aggressively discussed the impeachment of Donald Trump on two fronts? First, it is the moral thing to do, and second, it is in fact good political strategy right now, the more ok, for impeaching Trump is self evident. Just this past week placed several odds on the already broken camels back. Manafort is probably going to end jail Cohen is opening his rolodex, and we all know that, no matter what string Robert Muller decides to tug on the whole thing, sweater is going to come. Undone. The president is His behavior in office is reprehensible, and I turn here to the words of Lindsey, Graham in nineteen. Ninety nine talking about Bill Clinton. You don't have to be convicted. Prime to lose your job in this constitutional republic. Impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office now. Why is this good political strategy? Now, because this there's already about impeachment, let's face it. The fate of the Trump presidency is the central issue in this election. So why not talk about it? others don't need to be shielded from the consequences of the selection. Any voter,

we turned off by so called extreme talk of impeaching trump. Either. Has and paying attention to politics at all or wasn't really going to vote for a Democrat anyway. The goal Mid term is to energize your base. What energizes the democratic base? More than forceful opposition to the Trump Presidency times up now, I'm going to take ten more seconds liberties, inflexibility flexibility, Democrats don't get too cute always do and try and play it safe stand for something embrace impeachment talk. It now talk impeachment forever. I've right, you sold that I feel like you really, you believe that I don't really believe that I sold it sold it. This is where we get to cross Jody or no. Yes, so now you get some time for cross examination Jody You really risk coming off just

Hooters as an incredibly fringe party and ultimately damage yourself. You might win virtue signalling points in certain parts of the country, but you lose the parts of the country that you need to win back the Congress and ultimately you shoot yourself in the foot for the virtue signaling. So I just think, as I said, that the backlash to talking impeachment is an over story line. I anyone who would feel that way is probably either not gonna vote in this mid terms. It's a mid term. It's all about the bases or is probably going to vote. We're look in any way and there is actually polling to back this up. So there hasn't been a ton of polls about impeachment, but in a recent morning console pole. Thirty five percent of respond so that they would be much more or somewhat more likely to vote for a candidate who talked about impeachment and thirty. Two percent said that they would be are much less likely, so that's those kind of even each other out and then, if you think about the rest of the

who said that it either wouldn't matter or they're on the fence which direction you think that's going to break in the next couple months, away from Trump is corrupt, then we should not hold him accountable or towards that. So I just think that you know Every sign we have is pointing towards. You should be more forceful and get out ahead of this. I wonder how you reconcile image Quinnipiac Poll, for example a majority of voters would not like to see Democrats impeach Trump if they win. The house so the polling numbers? How do you reconcile that with the polling numbers? You just cited sure you know the hardcore Democrats want impeachment hardcore. Republicans, don't everyone else is in the middle right, but those people in the middle. I think the poll show lean towards not impeaching

so you just don't feel strongly about it. So I would argue those people who are in the middle, maybe don't feel so strongly, aren't the people we should be focusing on during the mid term. Well, you might turn out your base during the mid terms, and that might be an election. That's based on the base You then have two years until two thousand and twenty, and you have fully identified to voters with the demo party is everything that of the road voter fears it is embracing. Socialism is a party that extremism. It wants to throw the the country back into the most partisan devils of the Clinton era and they've they're doing it. You know hard core right from the start and your alienating people who were in the middle of the road. You know if this were a presidential. Question. I think this will argument would be easier, but you know there are a ton of districts where the democratic base is not enough. Right a lot of districts where, where Democrat

owning will need middle of the road voters end to end. Some Republicans. Take like I mean take mansion. Take you know, take Claire Mccaskill, Mazar it right and in that the house to the you know, our our forecast shows a kind of really diverse set of to Rex are are are on the board. I I think, maybe maybe, let's suppose, you're right- that going full on impeachment energizes. The Democrats probably helps you in you know whatever thirty percent of the district's, you want to win, but it, but my her here in the rest, alright. So let's move on to the next argument and then we'll get a chance to do closing arguments as we go so That's what you will be arguing and then you are on the clock. I'm arguing that the Democrats should stay quiet on impeachment through the mid terms and then, after that plan on impeaching in the house, clear sky will be advocate for I I'm in politics

since omission Micah. I will also be timing, myself, Nate, so no funny business. The Democrats, need to win a wide map in the midterms there, playing in a lot of states and they've nominated people that fit the districts that you know places like in Alexandria Cortez is district support. People who lean far to the left, but in many other parts of the country, those kind of politics are abort an they frighten people. A little bit Democrats need to win the house. It is absolute must in twenty eighteen and they have to do everything politically feasible to do that. That means catering, candidate quality and candidate tenor to certain districts, but once the house is one which, as we all know, is probably where the numbers are leaning. Democrats need to position themselves for two thousand and twenty. Currently talk of impeachment falls to the democratic from Unfortunately, you know people

Maxine waters have been calling for impeachment since Trump first stepped into office, having some ways lessen the impact of calls for impeachment. But once The Democrats are in power in the house. Whomever is speaker. Perhaps it's Nancy Polo see. Perhaps it isn't created, knew Youngblood. They can then lend A note of seriousness to the impeachment argument by calling on the different developments in the Muller investigation. Calculate the ones that have to do with Michael Cohen, and this, I think, helps them charge up their base two thousand and twenty, but also to those voters who are disillusioned with Trump such as, for instance, conservative women, who might be leaning more, it's voting Democrat. They can on in a serious way, Trump's real failures in the country and that's, I think, the smart strategy to do clean, or advocating for lying to the american people. As your body, what's the lie, it's not lying like a not at all,

You are advocating that Democrats, I'm saying that there are serious developments in the molar investigation that will continue to roll into the news. It's like that and the politicians would be. It would be dereliction of duty for the ignore them. Any longer after November, it's like when we say: hey, Micah, everyone else in the office is getting drinks after work. Do you want to come? and you say Maybe- and I thought about you sitting there, knowing full well that maybe means no it's that kind of like ok it's not a proof of the natives natives butchering? My argument is not alive, it is simply a responsible decision by public decision's been made it is simply a responsible decision by public servants too. Follow a line of argumentation. Would you want your attorney to go out? blazing in a fit of passion. During a go shooting session with you. You know in a in a media now in session. That's not what this is for. The mid terms are for mediation for meeting the person

halfway through and presidential elections are guns blazing, but serious minded guns blazing you, would that you would miss lead. The american people that you would advocate such an extreme path of really obstruction of obstruction of. Justice. Almost you know if it's unprecedented times, Post November impeach, you Claire for this argument, Claire. Let let let me ask you this. If you sort of arguing that impeachment. Is maybe not super you are right now and it's not a path towards actively winning this election. Why does it all of a sudden become tragically bastard after the election bastardization of my argument Jody, I am not at all arguing that impeachment isn't a real option that take seriously right now, but I am arguing that we should play smart politics. Democrats are terrible politics, and I am

arguing that they should be smart once and for all, but don't focus know that it's it's possibility there. It's just not talking about it, makes it disappear. No there elements that will occur in the investigation that have already occurred. Michael Cohen verdict, and that will continue who to come down convictions whatever it might be. You know cooperation and I think that voters know What's the difference between a lie, which is not at all what we're saying what we're saying is we're focusing right now in winning the midterms Voters know listen. This is it's gone beyond the pale. We real to rein things in, and that will happen as the investigation and inevitably unfolds. But first, I really think we need to focus on doing but a justice, an winning these districts, winning the house baby steps, and then we take the next turn. But it's not it's not lying at all. Well, that's! If they don't win the house, do you want? Do they still talk impeachment? That's not part a debate arguments I see. Okay, all right, we are how

way through our arguments? Nate is up next we're going to hear his opening statement in a minute, but first let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by upstart debt Some have a lot of some have a little, and the vast majority of us have some. But the path to financial freedom can look awfully bleak when you have high interest debt and if your phico score isn't that It can make breaking out of the revolving debt cycle harder than it needs to be. Thankfully, upset is revolutionizing the process of personal lending. Upstart offers personal loans, but they're not like the ones your bank or credit union, provides that's because uh goes beyond the traditional faycal scores when assessing your creditworthiness yep. They actually or do you based on your education and your job history in the form of a smarter interest rates? Two minutes is all it takes to go online, find your upstart rate checking your ups. It is always free and it will not affect your credit. The best part is once your loan is approved, the funds will be transferred to you, the very next day, the next day, for one hundred thousand people have used up start to pay off credit card bills, funds

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they use their other concurrent like. Actually it's a good sign that metaphor anyway, you are on the timer. I will be giving you a just a little nonverbal heads up Can I time myself, you know it tells what you will be arguing and then start the timer and start your laundry. So I'm going to argue that Democrats should wait. For the results of the Muller investigation as well as wait for the mid term, is edit within that, because they're not going to have, I don't think a verdict, our investigation before the mid term. Okay, so I feel like this: inherently is kind of a common sensical case. To make impeachment is a political process right now polling suggests that impeachment is not a terribly popular idea where, if you look at approval rate Donald Trump there, roughly roughly ten ten ten points more to disk ruling approval. If you look at polls about impeachment, it almost flips that we're about you know forty percent want to impeach fifty do not, and so all of a sudden all

swing, voters, people who might win you the election in two thousand and twenty who are essential to twenty eighteen flip from being for you too, against you, and already, I would argue, that's for good reason. Impeachment is a gigantic step. It's branch of government intervening and saying we're going to overturn the popular will. The public has not yet had a chance to win. Actually, the mid term has an opportunity to do that. You know twenty is also an opportunity to do that. So it's kind of like both in terms of like what sets address and I think, being conservative with the powers of impeachment is good, but, more importantly, politically right now, I think it may Trump potentially sympathetic, and there are two things that could That number one is as mother comes bound with actual findings or and or as Trump starts to pardon people that he shouldn't pardon, tries to, There are people that he shouldn't fire and you have like real meat on those bones shouldn't use impeachment in the marginal cases. Also, politically, I'm not sure helps.

In the short term in the long term, by the fact that if you impeach Trump, if you impeach Trump, you get another conservative Republican named MIKE Pence instead, they might actually rather run against. I'm saying follow my time zone terms and follow buck pole too bad. It didn't count cuz. It was over time implicit in your argument is that Democrats. There is no case on the merits for impeachment right now. There is a case, but political process in the party is allowed to wield it to their advantage and also the case I presume, would get stronger. I mean it's kind of like a catch. Twenty two anybody ups of a catch, twenty two is right in the case, gets stronger or there's not that much of their throw twenty two release eleven at least eleven and eleven, some terrible blink one hundred and eighty. So on this two but if it being a political process, why do you

think that mullers, the results of mullers investigation are going to bolster the political argument for, teaching trump when all of us when we have manafort, we have cone every week the moral and frankly political case against Trump get stronger and stronger. It feels like that. That's just going to be one. You know sort of drop in Well, that hasn't necessarily been true. I mean you've had a lot of until fairly recently when things began to reverse again. You actually saw the various investigations of Trump becoming less popular, an view splitting more along partisan lines, but again in this universe, where everything Trump is like forty percent favor. Fifty percent oppose this is the flip side of that and the public says impeachment is a big, drastic step. It's call Carneval that all the news networks will like, but which is uh. You know to overturn the will of electorate when you're having another election again in two thousand and twenty eight? Isn't it isn't it sort of folly to use of Muller a professed non political figure

lead the way in an inherently political discussion. Perhaps the reason why forty percent of the country is for impeachment and fifty percent is against. It is because the Democrats haven't actually taken a strong line on it and that maybe ten or fifteen percent of those who currently don't want to teach our persuade Rible, but we're just hanging around for this non political figure. Just somewhere. That made ever happen. I'm just saying this: is guy that a majority actually not a majority of the country, but like a minority, country and a majority electoral college elected. Say you know what I know I'm going to essentially nullify the results of that election and put my and instead I mean that's uh a high hurdle to clear, especially in the president's first term- We could argue in a second term that, like ok, now there is no recourse. He is a lie and therefore the only recourse would be to impeach but, like you know, the most likely way that Donald Trump fails to become president. Is not him being impeached or him resigning

him losing to some Democrat in two and one slash two years. Your argument is pretty persuasive. Persuasiveness to big hole in, I think, is, if you think there is a clear case impeachment now. Waiting for molar is a big risk, because if mother comes back with with nothing, thing that really hurts your chances for impeachment. I think it's also not going to work, though right now need to have at least some republican support for impeachment right if have any of that. Then it is going to seem inherently partisan right. You need things to be bad enough where maybe not even enough, where you're guaranteed to have him removed from office. But enough where, like people are like ok, this is where the center of pain is actually should be impeached. Maybe republicans are being partisan by hang on to him right, but it also like honestly until they recently think we would argue, and you can go back and listen to podcasts. That those kind of very random trajectory to all these investigations right where you would have done something flare up and then it would die down. It does

sing to me kind of sense stinky. You have had Trump get him in deeper and deeper trouble, and it kind of finally feels like you actually have some momentum and strangers term to use in the various investigations against him and by the way I would not say that you have to wait for mileage, but you have to wait for some investigation to turn up very soon finding something the president himself did and or for the trump to pardon people who are very central to those investigations and or for him to fire Muller or someone else is centralized investigation. So there a lot of triggers, but, like I think we haven't hit and this triggers yet wait for more evidence- wait for more data right now, the pony to stronger Kcp Micah. You are fourth here, you're going to make your argument we're going to cross examine- and I think we can all kind of like step back and Gus in general. What we heard but go ahead, tell us what you're told the argument you're making an then we will put you on the clock. Arguing that Democrats should not impeach Trump before two thousand and twenty go. Ok, one just to be clear: I'm making a police-

Call argument not a moral one, not a precedent, one I'm talking about politics. Why shouldn't they impeach Trump one, there's a good chance. It won't work. No president has ever been removed from office via impeachment. I think eight Let's have been impeached. Three were like it was actually serious, Johnson, Nixon and Clinton none of them were voted out of office by the Senate. So there's a good chance. It just won't work. The politics of impeachment, as neighbors getting at, are like really hard just to give you an example Trump's seemed so Billy Gurd. Now, an unpopular when Nick resigned? Nixon's approval rating was in the low 20s Trump's is in the low 40s say: there's still a long way to go before Trump is unpopular enough where oval from office, I think, would be politically palatable. Second, impeachment would take a long time months, maybe even years, one

the political nature of it means you're going to have to bring the country of all right, so you have to show them. The evidence explain the fact that all takes time again going back to Nixon Democrats were calling for Nixon's impeachment in, like the summer of nineteen, seventy two articles of impeachment were brought against him out of the Judiciary Committee, not until two years later August, one thousand nine hundred and seventy four so combined those two things, and basically you get your not going to be able to next, in until I get done until right before the twenty twenty election. Winning the twenty twenty election is an easier political left than impeachment. If you can't win the twenty twenty election, you're not going to be able to impeach, and by that point you got him out of office anyway, oh Mika. I appreciate your large sweep of history just to say that this is not a truly unprecedented moment every kind of indication we have is that this thing is worse and worse and every

so. Why should we look? history and say: oh well, you know we haven't impeached people haven't removed office, it's not unreasonable to Trump would be removed from office and impeached, I don't think my argument rests on the fact that it's impossible for Trump to be impeached. My argument rests on the fact that impeached my argument rests on the fact that, even if that were to happen timing would not be that much different from him being voted out of office being voted out of office, has all types of side benefits like no risk of a political backlash right, so I don't think it's necessary that even if Trump is the black swan and it would you could best, fully remove him, be impeachment. There's a for route to go from Democrats, which is just the election. This sort of argument about the a for route. You just want democrats lie there like flat,

little noodles for the next two years, not excite air base, not do anything that the base really wants and therefore deflate turn out and they actually need to win a twenty twenty election. I mean. How can you possibly argue that the this smart strategy for winning twenty. I mean I'm really flabbergasted by this. So you know I hotter heads people prone to rash actions you now I th I get why those people are really tempted by the impeachment argument But you know some of us have to govern so to speak. Then across aren't empower. They can't govern right now they need to win back power and simply lying down. It doesn't really get them anywhere. It doesn't ok. So this is a fair argument that, if you're not pushing impeachment, maybe there's a there's a section of the democratic base it feels like you are. You know a limp, noodle and uh as Claire put it

I think there are ways to hit Trump short of impeachment. That would excite those voters is what I would say like well send Michael Michael. Let me ask you one other question which is: is it going to have the Democratic Party apart. I mean this rift between never trump versus we need to find our own agenda as the animating force in Democrat Party is just going to grow and grow and grow. Aren't the next two years just going to see this, this party just go nuts in the twenty. Twenty primary is going to go even nuts here, if they don't, address it now. If they don't address impeachment now yeah I mean it can't you see and argue over whether to impeach Trump? If you delay delay delay tearing the Democratic Party apart now, now look if mother comes back with compelling evidence of collusion and

That's control the house and don't impeach, then I think there will be an uproar a sliding into Nate's argument in, but doesn't let me finish, but by that time I think Democrats will have you know a few kind of front runner candidates for twenty twenty. And it's very hard for people to get mad at you for saying we're going to put it in, the voters and that's what they could. I guess let's do quick, closing arguments and then a very brief just take a step back and discuss what we heard conversation and then will start to wrap up. So I will start with the argument here. This is going to be very. These are going to be pretty short, so my closing argument again making the case that Democrats should talk in now in closing, I would just say, because I know my audience I will rely on yet another poll. According to CNN forty, two percent of Americans today think Trump should be impeached. Compare that to the forty three percent who backed Nixon's in in

peachment in March of nineteen. Seventy four! Listen to that date March, one thousand nine hundred and seventy four three. Before he resigned office. We are at least each Nixon already it's time for Democrats to realize that and start talking impeachment are. This is my closing argument for why the Democrats should stay quiet during the midterms but plan on impeaching Trump after they win the in my argument is simple: I'm arguing for a democratic party, with teeth and with strategy, which is what democratic voters deserve a lot of my colleagues here of sort of in bad faith said that I am arguing for lying, not at all, I'm saying that people didn't elect saints to office. They like people to get things done and they like to or to strategize, I don't want my did,

this lawyer to be an idiot goober an I don't think you want your senator or congressman to be be that either. So I'm arguing that Democrats deserve politicians and the best things that politicians can I really strawmanning goober. My argument is that there is a genuine decision to make an that. You are going to get lots of information, that decision, including number one, how big, if at all, is blue wave in the midterms number two. What does Muller a number three does Trump kind of wind up causing him alarm by firing. People are parting people that he shouldn't right now. Impeachment is not a popular move. There's a reasonable chance that it will become? What I think is Micah says are will say that all of these things, fairly long. I mean Nixon one, landslide reelection in one thousand nine hundred and seventy two. You know kind of

It's of how Watergate was unfurling and, lastly, like, if you're being extremely political about it The pressure point is when the GOP is arguing amongst itself about what should happen with Trump. If you have a big within the Democratic Party and that causes pain right. But look at the pressure point is that, like within the it's gotten so bad that they're kind of stuck between supporting a patient which, by the way, would tear their public and party apart right. An not impeaching when it looks really bad for them too, and they might have a really bad outcome. If they don't lose the house, I might lose the house in twenty twenty anyway wait for the data, wait for inflation data and wait for the day to my closing argument and beat him in twenty twenty. If you can't do that, It wouldn't be able to impeach him it's much safer, there's no risk of political. Flash? The timing works out the same way anyway, and if you really Trump is such a threat to the country. Then you want to take the safest route to removing him. That's beating him in twenty

okay. We are going to spend the last few minutes of this bypass, having removed our each are giving our own case, who wants and talk about who won or who we think made a compelling case or how our minds may be changed. But as you remove those caps, let me point out that I'm actually pulled on Twitter about this over the weekend, and I asked folks you know if you were are Jeff strategy for the Democratic Party. How would you approach this question and I want to take a guess which arguments. One among the people, I think are twitter. Followers are pretty like knee jerk liberal, so I would guess Claire's argument the line. Ten, no actually Nate's argument, one about fifty percent of people said wait until after Muller, then Claire twenty three percent said that then seventeen percent said talk impeachment now and then eleven percent said MIKE's argument go until twenty. I had that uh argument. But if you remember, we

we're going to let Tony in the control room decide said Tony, who won, who won or Galen? Who won Michael one? He says what what I made the best argument: that's and that's: We did not wait a second. I think you are going to be there. I think your argument, I think, funnily enough found the most number on number four, and I was arguing number one, but like remember you know I think there's something convincing, but just in research, but you are beautiful young, talented argument about timetables, really interesting, then we're going to be in the twenty twenty election on November. Seventh,

I'm so kind of trying to do something in the interim when you're not you're, sort of putting all your eggs in the election? I think it is such an an an unavoidable thing, though, that the democratic base at some point in the next two years is going to call for that. I think I think that's what's Tony was signaling that the timing, I think, is what commands let my tiny, the best argument against my argument that I made, which is why I constrained that to a political argument at the beginning, is about norms and precedent and and if mother comes back and says Trump colluded you have to teach him it's just like you'd have to do it. You know I mean it does feel. I think this gets the part of Clare's argument as well as mine a little bit, but that This is one of those issues where, once again, we could look back and see a man Democrats really weren't reading the writing on the wall and weren't embracing the thing that kind of was right there and growing and building well, but this

where I think you're at the argument you had to make falls down is like I don't think people are there. Yet you know if you, if you're gone by Trump's approval or the or the numbers on impeachment and self peep meme People are not ready to remove someone at the present from all like MH that takes inside searching. I really do think, though, that, like once the politicians on the democratic side towards taken more seriously by people and frankly by the media, we argue for impeachment, then I think you see people changing their mind more. I think right now, it's seen as a purely for interesting and that people have been like beating the drums, since you know January twenty first, whenever he was inaugurated and that like, if you put more of the democratic leadership behind it more weight behind it than I do, six think you change some people's minds like. I do think people

to be led down the garden path a little bit yeah, they actually want this to happen. No there, I think, that's the best argument against kind of MIKE in my position right is that if you have kind of thought leaders in the party saying no impeachment say french externa solution and they'll be reflected alternately and what the voters think as schedules. What might be about kind of elite opinion? You know what's true for a lot. Things right, it's a little circular where people like, oh nothing, can ever really affect Trump's approval rating. I don't know, maybe the fact that people keep saying as part of the reason why why you don't see an effect necessarily? Can I just ask, I think it's his question, but like how do you Wendy Debates in a row. These midterms are hugely consequential for this question. Right. If Democrats take back one or both of the chambers, then they have to make these nights where this optionality and if they don't they kind of don't. But I mean that feels like what's really at stake in this election for the fall

the fate of the Trump presidency, or at least the various paths to the Trump presidency. Yes, there's a set of outcomes in terms of Muller's findings in which a GOP controlled Congress would not impeach, but a democratic, controlled Congress. Would I don't actually think that set of outcomes? Is that wide or big, because look Democrat so far have played impeachment conservatively they've done? What Claire has will Claire was arguing? For you know we, if you look, who's talking about impeachment? Mostly republicans, it's, like Republicans saying I mean we write this on the site. You know it's like Republican saying all Democrats are, can talk about his impeachment. Gop is trying to rile up its base, but if it comes to so so, Democrats are playing this conservatively, which I think they have to and till I don't think they're going to try to remove a president unless they feel like there's a decent chance.

Get two slash three in the Senate and they're not going to get third in the Senate. Unless they have a that number of Republicans on board. I think you need a big revelation from Miller to turn exactly right. So it is true that that Democrats, winning the house, increases the chances of impeachment both in the in that it lets them, give them tools to investigate the administration, but also the house impeaches right, but I still think they even a democratic, controlled house would be constrained somewhat by the Senate and by the need to bring Republicans Nate made this point to bring publicans, along with you to some extent, if it just viewed as part of ST it's not gonna work, I mean it's kind of the poker players here that you want to like put your opponents, the toughest possible decisions right, and so you know, look right now. If Democrats tried to impeach trump it yeah really easy decision for Republicans, they would say. No. This is pretty mature. We haven't even had a mother findings come down yet by the way the public is against it and they're, probably

it's galvanizing their base for two thousand and eighteen twenty twenty right, until there's enough pressure where the GOP faces a really hard choice, and they genuinely have to do some thinking Cory Gardner? Who will be up for reelection in twenty twenty? What would Do RON Johnson is our stand there for the GOP, and remember it by the way. Another argument to is that, look at the Senate two thousand and eighteen is uh a bad map for Democrats, two thousand and twenty- is it pretty bad now for Republicans, it's the echo of two thousand and fourteen the fact that you have state Demi. Expanders are under pressure right now postponed teen, frankly, they either have lost or they'll have and half years to wait until their next election and so in the Senate, which is the key branch here to actually removing him from office. The politics will shift in Democrats favor between now and post election we're going to leave it there. So what's our question to listeners now tell us what you thought who won alright it's over. Thank you as always. Thank you. Thank you, Claire Malone. Thanks thanks

you, make a cone tell us who won at at five hundred and thirty eight politics on twitter at five hundred and thirty. Eight politics cancel I know I'm trying to build up that they could feed. You can also email us podcasts at five hundred and thirty eight com or you can tweet any of us. If you have questions or comments, remember, there's a model coming on Thursday. So if you haven't wonky questions for Nightingale and send those in. My name is Jody Avirgan, Galen Droukas, our producer, Tony Chow, is in the control room. Thanks for listening and will see you soon