Surprised birthdays are kind of a dangerous idea I like who says, Fraid ago. Do something with a bunch of people when I had other plans oh, and welcome to the five per day politics podcast, I'm dealing group last week, vice pray, Joe Biden flipped his position on the Height amendment, a law that bans federal funding of abortions. In most cases, the initially send it his support for the amendment, but then, on Thursday said he had changed his mind so Scots why he changed his position and what it tells us about. The democratic primary and the party overall Let us talk about Elizabeth Warrant. If you ve been reading the news or watching cable tv over the past week, or so, you may have heard that she is gaining traction based on the breadth of her policy proposals. So is that showing up in the pool and our voters really reacting to her policies here. Dig into all of that are editor in chief and solar has grown eight, it's going well. Thank you gave it and also with us, is singer politic,

Claire Malone, Heckler her you was up and Michael out today, but he will be back with us next week. So to start, why did Biden change his position on the height amendment? week, be hers, he was getting criticized by people. To be in his coalition yeah I've loops like narrow as it nearer Biden has, I think, to some extent Some past issues demonstrated an actual. He is kind of in touch with the media, inner mainstream democratic voter in a way that may be some people that many didn't understand the kind of overestimated. How far left the Democratic Party had gone, the ever, maybe even some candidates apart whereas in Canada too, however, abortion is not one of those issues. Abortion is not something we're like only o the fringe kind of one court left most part of party feel certainly about abortion. I mean there's a mix of opinions, but this is a big kind of issue. He was out of step with.

Universal, but probably mainstream democratic opinion and he's kind of saying, I'm a very high, National is the right word but, like you know, I'm here like going represent the Democratic Party be kind of a frankly like a generic Democrat, long. Hidden literally said, I think he's probably trying to make it seem like he's not being transactional by yeah. That's are you reading it by the way nothing wrong with transactional politics. I mean, I think one of stupid notions and political analysis is the notion that, like any representative democracy, that it bad. If a politician flip flops to adapt to their constituents preferences right you know it's so weird to mean that are seen as oh, my gosh ripe. What gets those question of authenticity Yeah? We're gonna talk a lot today. I think about media narratives. Why they take hold whether or not they should mean any do mean anything. I mean a thing for Biden. Abortion. It hasn't isn't run for president in a while. I also think that on this particular liquor funny things

my noble here for an for president in awhile for president lies in paints and twenty twelve frame manner on the presidential ticket, and I also think forbidden. Abortion is probably a particular. I guess blind spot right for lack of a better phrase in part, because I do actually think he it has some complicated personal feelings about abortion, and you know his red Hence the sort of say you want Fourth, the hide amendment anymore, probably does actually have a lot to do with. I would guess, maybe, personal got real. To not wanting to see as many This happened in the United States. I think what s interesting about the new democratic position on abortion, it has a lot to do with you know. We see we saw a lot of coverage in the past few weeks about this I law in particular, and the idea that Democrats feel

as if abortion is so much more threatened in some states, and it is right there- there are lots of exertion and Xxix states. Now the single clinic left that performs abortions, and I think when, when you're reading some of the coverage of the arguments that people say convinced Biden to make a switch, it was people arguing, listen you and Brok Obama pushed to healthcare law that aim to give people greater access to health care. The hide amendment disproportionately affects people who rely on government assistance for health care. I e you're putting the screws to the people that you're healthcare lawless poster help. So I think, that's you know that's kind of sort of trickling out probably from his. Pain about like the reason for this which, but but I would say that that Biden probably does have a lot of persons history means a man of a certain age in a certain generation of Catholicism and economics. Be difference, This is an issue on which the average

democratic, fuller, but the average election motor probably supports the high government to two. Sixteen Harvard public health Slash politico pole, oh, that fifty percent of Americans opposed changing the current policy in order to allow medikit funds to be used paper abortions. Among democratic electoral voters between sixteen election. Fifty five percent favour the change, but thirty, seven I suppose so. This is an issue where Democrats are as three years ago and if anything although the parties should limit the left on abortion Democrats are, in fact rub it by a solid but overwhelming margin of rum I've amendment, whereas the general population independence, probably preferred keeping the hide amendment, and so you know, Biden was, I think, trying to kind of fairly carefully calibrate. Like ok, Kennedys slightly unpopular among Democrats to avoid something which is fairly and popular with the general election, and the answer from kind of interest groups and activists was knows, is a big deal. You have to kind of get on the bus

Sweden is not acceptable for you to have this position and he- and he listened to I'm right- and they were kind of reports about how like younger staffers- were firstly pressing the urgency of Essen, saying hey, look, we understand the democratic primary electorate pretty well, and this is something where you have to like actually change your position. Is this one is a big deal, is not just kind of left wing the chatter or whatever else. This is a kind of very core issue: that's important to people who reliably and implementation carcasses. So what is the Democratic party position on abortion? Is there on clear position on it. Is there still a range of possibilities that Democrats can take when the running for office? Why think obviously we're seeing that it it's this? It's that you have to be pretty liberal on abortion, and I think the more interesting question is kind of what had then, a general election with abortion? Obviously, I didn t need said maybe a bit of an eye towards the general election. With this view, if you're republican

strategists, I'm sure, you're, watching this particular dust up and saying oh well, The general election mean a weakness basically right for, but I do think that that, because of of as before, because of the rapidity at which allowed these clinics are posing. There is a sense of urgency and groups like near all and plain parenthood- do have quite a bit of political clout, fundraising clout in the narrow, party I'm so their voices that are listened to and, I think you're you're, seeing that, in fact, I think all the candidates pretty much all the democratic candidates pretty much have same position on abortion now give or take show under Red Biden, characterisation of his position on abortion. As of two thousand and seven, according to his book from that year, title promises to keep, and I'm curious, if you think, apart from just the height amendment, if this is a tenable position for democratic partition today, here

quote my position is that I am personally opposed to abortion, but I dont think I have the right to impose my view on the rest of society. I thought a lot about it my position. Probably doesn't please anyone who goes on to say I've stuck middle of the road position on abortion. For more than thirty years, I still vote against partial birth abortion and federal funding, and I to make it easier for scared, young mothers to choosing to have an abortion, but I will also vote against a constitutional amendment that strips a woman of her right to make her own choice, I know TIM Cane in two thousand. Sixteen said you know, as a Catholic, I personally pro life but also kind of globally pro is that still a position that a democratic and taken the party tonight. Well, I think, by the way you know, I think I said before that will they all have about the same positions mean if, if Biden still opposes, third trimester abortions. Then I think that that there are some democratic and to have a different stance on him in that

tell me. That seems like a very kind of mainstream argument that you might hear all the time right that personally, I think abortion is not so great, but that's a woman to decide and clearly you know women get to make the choice. It seems like that's why the pro choice, movement, brands itself as pro choice right in saying that you can person opposed a lot of things are not wanted outlawed em, but has a is been a politically convenient argument that you can stop appeal, to social conservatives by saying what I like personally opposed to it, but I dont want to like a legislate, my whereas in many other forms of issues, I do wonder why. Just like my boy, I think yeah I mean, I think that there are some logical dissonance there. I think what is poor plead the view of a lot of regular Americans now politician to hold that view of. Like I'm kind of uncomfortable with it, but ok with it being legal, I am assuming its probably that people have some sense of

this in the first trimester is very different from a foetus in the third trimester. So it's almost a spectrum of win. Do the rights of this baby equal or supersede the mother right, that's an eye, and I think That's an uncomfortable, though more logical viewpoint to express in the political arena we ve talked about this in the past on the package as well, and that that shows up in the polar you can literally see. As you ask people about. First, second and third, trimester of people's opinions changed significant. Before I went online, but I think it's I mean it politics right, there's a lot of and in particular on abortion and the way that you can even look there ROE V Wade was argued right, alot of people. You know liberal side of things are unhappy with the arguments that the initial road decision was decided on. So I think there's of interesting like around abortion stuff. It has become pretty shrouded by. There are these pat political phrases, that of kind of Look, I'm sure they ve been pull tested right, that that's how we recognise a moderate stance. What was then the Clinton era,

safe resign and rare right, which I believe Hillary Clinton voiced at various points, although with a sort of modern, I have seen the biggest change in the way that damage the Democratic Party talks about abortion is its move from the sort of Eighty nine is almost like religious conversation to framing it as a health care issue framing and as a minority streaming. Discrimination issue and I think that, that's probably maybe something to do with the slight edging up of the numbers of people who who want to be legal and that reform of the democratic primary electorates I'd get Armenia difficult to tell from at the pulling, but are Democrats actually changing their mind on this issue or are activists just becoming more motor It had been activated by the issue, come in almost every two things become more polarized and you're obviously see Republicans and in certain states passing airstrip

abortion bills that will probably struck down by the courts may be lead to a court challenge of ruddy in the long run so yeah, obviously I mean- I guess, like partisan, chip gonna dominates everything else in politics and the most Morton Trend american politics, the past thirty years on a habit, far back you up to date. It is increasing partisanship and polarization, so even a case like abortion, where the influence of the religious right is, maybe maybe less than it was before, that still overwhelmed by partisanship. The debate about the height in particular those, as you guys have been saying, it does gain taken the black people who are poor, who actually beyond Medicaid, who would not necessarily have another way to pay for an abortion through private insurance or whatever else, and so it does actually affect people who were again member maidens voters he's over performing with black voters relative to my voters over performing with working class voters relative to college gated, voters see how kind of a conference, on the one hand, of like elite,

opinion is against the Height amendment, but also his constituents. People who might be in his constituency, I should say, would also be affected by it, and so it's a pretty material issue, although interesting way, if you look at the upshot of we can dug up a bunch of pulling on this amongst african american Democrats. There split fifty fifty on whether or not abortion should be legal in all cases, yeah. That was actually the most conservative group amongst Democrats on the issue, so that kind of a lines with the coalition. That Biden seems to be putting together. What does your also tend to be more religious rights so that I think that that's also playing in here right that that people who are in regular churchgoers, tend to be more split on abortion issue? So are part of the narrative of vitamins? Success in the pulls up till now has been all of the activists. You hear from on twitter they're, not the party and bite in and those at least what his advisers will tell them,

but you know, Biden has really more in touch with your median democratic voter than Twitter thinks he is, and you know that's being proven through the poles. Does this change that equation that Maybe as we go through this primary, there are going to be What places where he is out of step, or is this a one off that? coming, there might be other things. You'd have to sell one. I think that might be a candidate is potentially marijuana. Legalization. Where Biden has stated more conservative stances, then, where the Democratic Party is frankly, maybe in the country as a whole, she's, not rocket science. You just have to look at the pole, who's say: ok, what do Democrats actually think about some of these things? on the question of like out an appropriate about the term socialism, Russia's capitalism, you know it still light, that's what differently given the media chatter, but on this issue again about eighteen, twenty point margin as a twin. Sixteen Democrats were in favour removing I'd amendment, and so you don't want something that varies. Power in the question was this: could this be like a kind of low salience issue that bind cooking,

pass on and then it helps them. However, Fortunately, the general electorate. You know the answers oh, that abortion is too important. So I mean to me this seems like kind of normal and it's a little bit. We are the people from years like. Oh here's, a here's, a guy, fr I mean, I think people on the left should be happy that Canada is that not their town, that Canada is responsive to them. Saying hey like But this is one where you gonna get her back at you think, there's If a weird there's been some you're coverage of like the Biden campaign in the past week. Besides the hide stuff, I mean, so. There was, I think, vocs first wrote about this, that they said that the The Biden campaign website had what they were. Calling plagiarize sections basically see plain stuff that appeared on advocacy groups, websites and the Euro. Fine was was Biden play DR famously plagiarize in his first presidential campaign, the story of a british politician. But to me it's it's more.

Biden, didn't Biden didn't write his campaign website and while it might be sort of potentially like sloppy policy, advocacy groups do want presidential camp, to adopt their policies, but the for the way it was Did this narrative in the media was very fastened into me, no Biden plus plagiarism equals click. But just to go back to you, no other issues where that might come up through the throughout the course. The campaign that people will say Biden is out of step with the democratic base. I think it's gonna be sing to watch how he might handle those things. As neat says, maybe marijuana will come up as a cultural touchstone. I think one thing that we ve we ve talked about over and over again is how much the democratic primary electric want some one to beat Donald Trump right and so perhaps Biden Campaign an unjust pipling, says, listen, We understand that there is a spectrum of belief on this in the Democratic Party, Ree, marijuana, legalization or anything else, but we think all a lot of merit, in many of whose up and many of whom were trying to win their vote. We need to meet

more there out right now and convince right, we need to wage persuasion campaign and were does not they are right now, like I'm kind of curious about how Biden Frames, those issues that are more conservative on than the democratic primary electorate, but he's in step with the general American ACT at more specifically, to be frank, the election. Certain states that the Democrats need to win in order to end the presidency, because that's the way it works in electoral, so we mentioned marijuana in the New York. He's telling of the store? They also brought up the environment as an area where Biden had kind of evolved from an adviser saying that he would find a middle path on climate change or something like that activist within the party really well, that's not acceptable, and then he put out a climate proposal either the other things that we can kind of. Imagine looking ahead to the rest of this primary law. Someone, you know Amy closures respond.

When she was ass during. I think I see Town Hall do you believe in free college right and she said You know I don't wanna give people false hopes are no, so I think certain certain things there are there are other candidates in the field who are cutting this pragmatic track, which is like listen course, I would love to to do this. I, like the ideas put forth, but now that's not a tenable plan where we are right. So. I think you could also I mean you know. Closure is obviously taking a certain kind of like bomb the pregnant. Woman in the race right, I'm not there, pie in the sky. I'm telling you what we can accomplish right now: gonna come the Democratic Straight talk Express sort of thing and I mean if you wasn't her, what Biden staffers are saying you know they told the press that we don't want this to be an apology tour. You know their plan is for him to be somewhat bold. In

stream in some spaces, where he may not perfectly aligned with the left of the party. Today, I'm curious about how this all plays out. In the general election. Potentially, I'm sure everyone remembers from two thousand twelve Romney had play If similar experiences where he was judged at points as not conservative enough and then went pretty to the right on several issues, one of his some deportation. Yes, one of advisers ended up, saying your view. You know, will shake him up like an outer sketch for the general election, and then that was widely pants. So what kind of vote our abilities are their involved in Flint flopping. I guess on positions like this, doesn't vulnerability. I guess Mitt Romney, wasn't I don't think is well known, as Joe Biden is right when he ran for present and twenty twelve. He was a bit of like that. He was kind of this the abbot, the consensus candidate Biden icing

as that there certainly risks. I'm not saying that like people, certainly, I think you know per the success of Bernie Sanders and twenty sixteen and as we're going to talk about, perhaps the successive Elizabeth Warren or burgeoning success did their people take stances in, and you just know what they're stances think Joe Biden is just super well known associated with this kind of now. Golden haze, Halcyon Obama era for Democrats and that kind of his that's what for the people, will remember the good vibrations of All these somewhat good vibrations golden Hazel sound like strains of marijuana, ironically, ok, so neat. What's your take on the risks involved in changing your position and to meet the activists where they are, as you go through a primary in comparison to the kind of campaign you want to run on your chances on a general election luck, I mean there, people who disagree, I think the

but it's mostly says that if Europe closer to the centre, whenever there is, then that probably is helpful for Eu Electoral early, so you're kind of shifting the left wing on this issue, in particular the majority Americans as a couple years ago so, behind amendment. So he is, you know at the margin it probably heard some in the general election, I tend to think it's gonna, be a little hard for Biden, to be branded as like this crazy liberal part, because he is like a old white man right and to some extent men are exceptions like abortion and marijuana, but for them party has pretty mainstream policies at a kind of very similar to the policies that present a bomb ahead and that every Clinton habit she was running four years ago and he's kind of keenly described in media accounts as being good a man and I wonder if that's really accurate, you know if you can his voting record as a member of the Senate. He is always exactly in the middle of the democratic caucus and

as Democrats, move left gradually, not as much in that period is problems moved right, may kind of ships along with them and tat like he's kind of scene, always kind of moderate but I don't know how it described. The Democrats, like eight, a liberal party, a party the laugh, but a liberal party certainly and It is kind of the average the craft and therefore he should probably thought of as eight as a and you want to call a moderate it's. Maybe in relative terms, but I can t- I think, that's probably the right way to frame it, but then, This is where the media narrative comes in real right, because the same things could have been said perhaps about Mitt Romney is that he was conservative Republican, he just wasn't conservative and now for the tea party in that era and as he started to- a line, his positions more and more, with the tea party he developed a media developed a narrative. He helped the media. All the narrative about him not being authentic right

and so is that you Know- is that a risk for biden- I guess, there's the question in this case. Yes, I I don't know, I think you have to. I think it's naive for us to sit here and say let them that a media narrative won't have some effect. I've I a catalyst likely toxic or read like little articles or tweets where people are, I think kind of suddenly sort of anti by air or not anti by the sense of like you know, this is a guy for something like this. I think some of that is driven by the fact that he does not do as many public events as other and so maybe, as rapporteur, there's a bit of like come on. We have lots of access. We have lots of dino footage of these other p o Connor like interacting doing town halls whatever and they ve had it since January, or whenever the first person Evelyn and winning, would be a boring story. By the end of the race April, twenty fifth, and so we ve had six weeks now, seven weeks of kind of

big, pulling led notes, proliferating about. We can talk about that and they must form part of this. But it's been a pretty time, and so I think the media. It wants a shift in narrative. I do think by the way. The first debate is therefore a moment of honor for him, because sometimes like those are way, should the narrative in it to some extent, if binds ahead of everyone by fifteen points, are not that much else to talk that's right, it's a closer rays and all of a sudden he was in second and third and fourth matters, a lot more or have you ever coming autumn at the debate and where we comes out, debate overcome a desperate to in the first debate in two thousand and fifteen. I guess it was helped bolster at least early Hillary Clinton sleet over Bernie Sanders, but, like I do, wonder at the time if, like half the time kind of here, the media narrative abiden, is kind of to moderate Credit party. I wonder if there are some voters who actually think about sums pretty good to me. Including people, that, like our participating in poles of general election and went away Obviously the arguments at his kind of elect.

This evil trade off right that like, if you are taking a stance that is, but Chile unpopular with general action voters, not just that it might actually hurt you and the general elections us that he'd been everytime seeming comes out. The pole, showing Biden, speedy, from by eight are not. The people should spend a little time looking at those poles, but they do not wish to miss podcast enough. Tell your friends but there is a perception that binding is more electable. It is bolstered by these general election, also a weird way: that's the problem nurse to him more than a candidate the war and who is campaigning on being the ideas person I well Let me move on to talk about always with war and whether she's getting traction on the strength of her policy proposals, but first today's pocket, is brought, you buy, we work, we worked designs, flexible workspace for businesses of all sizes and industries, you work, spaces are designed to maximize workplace efficiency, employ effectiveness, team collaboration and creativity is the perfect

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says: Quote Elizabeth Warren gains ground in the twenty twenty field. One plan at a time Bloomberg says: with Warren rises in the twenty twenty race, as policy focused catches fire the Washington Post says, warns nonsense. Ideas reshape the democratic presidential race and give her new momentum. So, first of all, are these accurate, is always with Warren breaking through. Maybe so help me more. Let's start with the national picture, which is at the heart of the case with the national poles, I suppose so regular politics. We will at some the summer have five thirty eight average, but these guys do fine work so she's, currently at eight percent and our city average, which is actually down from a few weeks ago. It was ten percent by when called sniffed move its up from, like six percent before by denounces candidacy, and so she's gained a little bit she's. The one can't eight apart from Biden to have moved up in this kind of Post Biden. Environment,

but again going from six to ten. Back to nine or whatever. If you look at the same, Mr some morning, consult, I think they actually dont habit movie but downright whichever, like gonna, moving up gradually but like select. This is now A her Cain Sea ICE, rise year, popularity or even a boot Aegean rise rise right but she's dead. It'll be warranted. It's warm up warranted in Ireland Oh, you can start to make an argument that, like you, seem more tangible signs of us most notably the CNN Damone Register, seltzer and company flash that last point, which is a very good pole cells or the can had worn at fifteen percent, basically in a three way tie- with Bernie Sanders and people to judge for second place with Biden at a a less formidable twenty four percent.

Go through and look at favorability ratings in the polls. Actually, quite a few poles, she gets higher she was a favourable to unfair ratios and Bernie Sanders does or than me, or the many other candidates, Joe Biden, so pretty good, camel hair. So pretty good, but she's moved up in that department right If you look at poles of the groups, you would need to win so their lot of poles. Now that show her beating Sanders among liberals, beating Sanders among voters, your being more to the campaign. So What to say, I think, like look, I think, for some of them, We're talking about a moment ago, with Biden Right the media would love for there to be some dynamic. Campaign, that's not just kind of the same thing every day, and so I feel there's been a lot of desire alike the narrative of current surge and assorted. Like fifty percent. True at fifty percent fall. What does that mean? What is fifty percent roomy? I think it means that If I should like, if I can not interpret, I mean it

Neither was interpreter Clare Malone. What made percent roomy Amy but there is, there is evidence on the ground via like pulling numbers that she is. You know she, he had, as we are probably know, a rocky start with the need for men in controversy, I think she's putting a lot of effort into early states. She campaigns a lot. I think that sort of disputable thing. She is out there a lot she's, very visible presence, she has little moments ago, like semi viral, but I also that we have to know that media stories critically at big outlets. Can confer status, are confer Mama TIM outside to the other, pulling number the search. Selwyn someone read the headline. Its has warned surging, they don't oh, that its as meat has laid out a fuck Sheena

situations of of of percentage points. You no small small movements and in the scale, do you kind of sea. It is like. Oh, you see, I think people tend to think of. You know why so like a wide sweep owe us surging narrative like that, how people think about these races right, but wouldn't we if trumps approval when you know up a few points and then a couple of points we participation. So do I? it's pretty much right, ailing stay by think cannot say the same about Osborne. I think your search is the long term the score So, if you pay me down and say issues Turkey or not, I would say no, however She is in a stronger position in the polls and she was a couple of months ago in a way pretty meaningful incremental gain incremental gains, and there may be more lasting anyway, right so ten alike. Now it felt like a war and motor is. Urging. No, but you nothing to worry about yet because she does making important incremental gains and like- and she said

to win the voters that she would need to win. Look. You can make an argument that that, after Biden, she is second strongest candy position to win the primary. You can make argument for other people too Bernie. Can make an argument Harris, maybe bitter judge, but she is now conversation in that tier? We call it dear one beer when seer, whenever right, if by using dna or want to be heard one unless everyone causing s death, and if you are the polls in Iowa made, which we have more. I were poles or problem resources. National poles right but, like you know, that Poland Iowa showing Biden at twenty four percent Recommit, one of whom is worn at fifteen percent and camel hair. Ok. Maybe I was not her best state by seven percent with good favourable. Then it's kind of a tier of like five candidates and, like I don't know, maybe the race for gonna get in any of those. Five could probably win, but compare that when she launch, and also all the other committees that group of five have gone their search at some point right. I think both Bert,

In especially Biden who talked about had a bigger surge in the polls than than people expected me, they should have expected still, they got very positive coverage. A period of time. Buddha church, of course, had his search, came after he had announced, but still he became the dumb. Sorry line for a couple of fleeting weeks does Aesop's feeble play in here. Slow and steady wins the rate there is a slow and setting or yes in the hare. Well, there's also like a comeback story. Right, I mean part of what you are saying is that when I was with worn first announced there was like a flood of negative coverage about her dna test and native american ancestry, and now the media. Gets to town, perhaps a little bit of a comeback story based on like the force of her ideas. It also would say that I'd remember our colleague here at five hundred and whose a database journalist looks at cable news coverage from week to week in the Democrats the primary ways and always with Warren was the second most discussed candidate two weeks ago, and it was also the second most discuss candidate last week and that second to Biden, of course,

both were so. She has moved up significantly in cable news coverage gathers weird kind of mean that all the media's ignoring Lisbeth warrant or getting really negative comfort. I think he gets really friendly coverage play in part, because, because all these people were her own forum, horse, races, overrated, it should be about policy and so and so often it terrible people who ve been parades should be about policy so how unfavourable Farley's options winning out in the primary, so others skull the journalists level. You can't who is very substantive for sure and is very detailed? I think there is by the way to be so in terms of not necessarily having a fifty point, fifty page proposal for everything right, like the Buddha church. Kind of ok, philosophically, were very deep. We make fun of that. Do right, but week. Hooker. What are you gonna set her? He could not. I mean I think

like I don't need. You should finish your thought, but but what the fact that worn and Buddha judge are grouped together so interesting to me always cause people kind of their like the smart candidates right through the Smarty pants, but they are actually quite different in what they present. I mean where Warren does have put a plan in an Buddha judge after does not, or has more of a vague sense of things which you know I mean the other reason. If you look at that group of for me, her contenders Biden, sorry, tobacco and Amy and Corey, but you guys are off the lead, laugh now lego as one more and make an have. Their comeback story is told at some point over the net and they probably to end the inhabitants. I mean that's the this is kind of like their its June twenty nineteen, we have many twists and turns you can again find examples of can, like John carrying John Mccain, have come my right away, Amber Obama who had momentarily people saying what does not going very well and even their nomination

No! It's really early, but like all those four I think she in some ways formulates the cleanest contrast to Joe Biden. And so maybe not a coincidence, that she has moved up, one of the candidates have struggled so you know if friction. You would have like a Bernie versus Biden, race while there are, some Democrats were not can be happy with having to suffer something white men to pick from. That's one problem right. I think there is actually probably enough space where Bernie is too far left for some democratic Biden is too much of a moderate. There is kind of a lot of space there, so I think she had become a Harris, also forms it contrasts abiden, but the fact that by an as we talk about the first segment is seen as so transactional and that warrant is seen as some kind of purely motivated by her intellectual belief in in this kind of regulated of capitalism. She believes, and whatever else right so that formulates a nice, an ice contrast that I think she can play off of worse, actually kind of

She probably has overlap with some mere PETE voters. I think you definitely has overlap with. Somebody voters and some Harris voters, but yes, establishment. So let me ask the kind of second part of this narrative. One is that she's surging are breaking through. The other is that it's based on her policy ideas? Have we seen me? Is there a way, tell why she is making these incremental improvements, like is their reporting that we ve seen that's like yeah. Voters really into her policy ideas? That's why she's moving up incrementally is just an assumption, because yet she does come out with a lot of policy proposals, so that must just be. Why is your media narrative. What need missing before that that paying attention to too early state poles in some ways a good tell so the fact that you pretty well and I work maybe can be interpreted as list people there are seeing her alot their liking, her, I guess, digital imprint with the plan. That she is, maybe

we're coming initial stereotypes that is Hillary Clinton Reductions in ITALY, in the sense that she is the bill- marginalization, generation, white woman, but that she actually has perhaps people guy, just knowing her better right or and maybe for saying, like ok, legate, attuned, democratic primary early stage, voters are short of saying, like ok, maybe maybe she's. I liked Bernie in Iowa in twenty. Sixteen he seems to have a lot of the same, said he does, but with like a little less strife with the Democratic Party and then maybe feeling like stirring up less strife within the Democratic Party, because its twenty, Tina I dont want Donald Trump to win. Think that Iowa polls generally a prey reliable, tell fur how well you doing in retail campaign among high information voters. Also again, if you look at poles of, if they literally say Are you paying attention? The campaign canopy occurs began to ask that question

Warren tends to over perform with high information high interest, I should say voter That means can we tell from that that it's really like you know the always with Warren? Has all of these plans that's kind of giving her, modest boost. So I don't I think, like I said, the policy substance as a way, often to signal to party activists and the media that hey I'm serious and substantive and I've thought about all these problems and then that we party activists and the media to portray her in a more favourable light. I mean certainly look. A lot of voters are kind of getting like one or two pieces. Formation attached to each tat. I write and so for warn that one thing These two here was our dna test Pocahontas. Another hearing, all she's substance on policy. She also. I feel that this has been overlooked, because the recent like, I guess, media narrative, has been odor policy ideas. She was the first democratic candidate to say we should peach trump.

Storm the Mulder report. You she's had these moments where she has kind of grabbed the new cycle by the horns, balls whatever, and and sort of been like? This is the position and she was, I mean frankly, the pace horse for the rest of the candidates. You saw after she may that initial statement about mother important impeachment, you saw people Some three or four days later come on, say yea at that, and I do think that that give it given the the democratic electorates particular attention to the mother of port and impeachment, and talking for that question she asked and benefit is That particular issue and just being really out in front, and so it's not just the policy issues. The unity for mental rise of the policy issues that she did have a bit of a splash e mullah report, search, I mean urge incremental. Let me give a cup a piece of interest robust debate a couple of pieces of things that are not going as well for work yet in the data. One is that she is.

Do not pull that will in New Hampshire, which you would think would be a good state for her other. We ve been riveted. Recent calls. You don't authorities and also both Iowa New Hampshire, are why liberal, early stare, premier, electorates and Cox, like liberal. So therefore for can like centres. Moron you'll be pretty to do well in those states, so they haven't been a lot of poles in New Hampshire recently, but she's only broken ten percent. In one recent Paul, there she also second Germany endorsements. Yet so she is fifth and endorsement points behind Biden Booker Harris Enclosure, although no one sort of Biden really has all that many, but one thing that could happen. If you start to see progressive groups say, say, hey its Warren and not Bernie like that, might be interesting. It might help or by a few points potential. But you haven't kind of seem big, organised efforts by influential groups. Yet to do things like that, the other thing is funding

right. I mean at least in the last quarter. She was be in fundraising numbers, as before Biden announced by a work, but a judge, Warren and said and I think there are no. She she had. She had a campaign financed director quit in part because he said you need to take some money from large donors that you cannot. That person disagreed with her theory that you can rely on purely small donor donations, which I think I don't know yet right. I dont know you're gonna find out going to find out in twenty nineteen, if you can probably a pretty tight budget campaign, but but still rely just on our minds. Meet me out- maybe that's true and may be. Keeping the purity factor helps her, but the Indeed, that shift in fundraising that just the shifting the mechanics of the american presidential campaign, the glaring indifferent moment and

the interesting this election, particularly with the number of candidates in the race, some of whom are tried to do, which is doing to see what happened. We should note that, like you know people like Harris, obviously Biden like a lot of these other Buddha judge a lot of these candidates that are doing pretty well in the polls. They they're taking big donor money. You know their bundling justice. Juno democratic candidates have done for the election cycles. For most of the modern era net you are saying previously that one place where I was with warrant does do well, is amongst high information voters and in looking at pass primaries. Is that, like a leading indicator of where the primary is headed, what does that signify. I mean that question has been asked that often I think release we don't have it in their archives. I would think almost by definition, though it's it's a leading indicator, and people forget how few voters are actually really paying attention the campaign and how few voters have We decided upon a candidate

So again, you know also looking at those favourable ratings improving on her behalf, I think as another kind of positive sign yeah, but I think it's like kind definition of like a leading indicator in some ways and its both because, like they're, the ones pensions, are they gonna reflect how borders will we'll see her later on and there is like a comeback software, because you kind of have that poor first impression that she made that by the way you have the especially large gap between them, you think of Elizabeth Warren as oh. She is the most substantive Canada plan for that restating our lives, but weren't is Pocahontas until works at both ends, little bit where, where you know, and also who, like obviously you know, cod it had motors- I mean this- is kind of one of the issues a little bit with like our media urges that kind of media preferences tend to reflect what college educated, But our thank because people in the media are overwhelmingly college educated. Now sets a bias that you may have to correct for a little bit, but again the fact that it I just called educative, motorboat motives, but also high

formation motors to me kind of paints that a bit differently, and the fact that you seen her now doing well in this kind of one I oppose and with the fund raising like. I would be surprised if she doesn't see members improve a lot in the second quarter that were now she's, always fun. Is really well for her. Like Senate campaigns, we didn't really need to frankly had like excess money. So I was a bit surprised when she did kind of poorly before if that doesn't go well, then, frankly, I do think but each of my prior back to say. Ok, maybe this is like a little bit of a thing where kind of the media getting this wrong there's only but you shouldn't have pretty good fun rising numbers at it. Probably will let me those kind of come out kind of after the first debate days after will be under the quarter and the camp it will undermine how excited they are about those numbers kind of time. The release of those numbers. You can imagine a scenario where, where should as well the debate- and she had very positive coverage- can also imagining tat. Where have you not enough by the way, I just know cause you're talking about

significance of early state poles and campaigning worn, hired Bernie Sanders Caucus Director for Iowa. And I believe she also has on her staff Hillary Clinton, one of Heller, Clinton's tapioca people? So perhaps that's, That's an indication of their group they going after that state. They have people who really know the rules of that state who know the peculiarities of that state, even though we know democratic Dnc, it is trying to make non guenaud white dates, also sing in the primary but like ilo- remains a very important place and that key hires and people who know how the particular politics in that state work are barred Portland and once he tablets people here and she has a fairly robust pensive team, you, I think, she's, what my own money of anybody on staff, in which I think is smart. I think, like I, mean chemistry, about their their burn rate. Right but like look, if you did a point, we can support it.

Anthony you probably are not going to win the nomination anyway, and so it's kind of like why not going out and see Oh yeah, that's, what's got Walker did and then he was the first person to drop out, but I guess he found out what we know. He found out. If we leave, it was gonna work so as we rap We're talking about things that was with Warren is spending money on like staff in Iowa. One thing that she's kind of let it be known through the press- I guess I rather than the you can post. She has not hired a traditional pollster God so that your reaction, I guess Does this just what he had an introductory, I actually consider what does that mean so what Sal Data and insights team right like so, she doesn't have like a top poster. That's like the figure here. I guess you know. I can't tell you exactly what that means bite is. Do that just get this desire to be viewed as a kind of authentic and driven by preventive, Hard Jones said that a lot to do in sixteen Donald Trump. Yes, it probably pulse.

Well do not higher bolster I'm Incas. The funny thing is where we should pull that. Would you prefer candidate who has a tradition, also are who does it would probably have like coming, and she has like an analytical team and I was gonna, get slow squarely kind of what she is not doing right, but, like look. I dont think warrant is taking very many positions that are like unpopular or at least unpopular the democratic she needed to live with a democratic it's to win over the rights of a car like that, the left most half two thirds direct, maybe she's not going over the Democratic Republic of Congo I would ever something right, but she's, taking in a case like impeachment. Her stance the popular stance, the democratic, primary and conservation. That more can it's weren't were eager to do something like that. Sooner. And so it's like I'm not quite sure, like what Sacrificing in order to, like you know, be more so for whatever may be the one one weird flop,

is it. She doesn't have our own healthcare plan in Lhasa, mistaken and she's, basically just kind of endorsed, Bernie Sand. This plan as several Its have I mean to me, it's like a big one for Bernie and a little bit surprising that, like that, like she try to come up with their own plan or maybe they might like? You know that the bland of somewhere between public option Medicare for all. Maybe can't really do that. I don't know but like, but that's kind of surprising, but maybe that's like add yeah I mean, I think, all the senators in the race right now have endorsed the Sanders plan. So maybe that sort of, like an internal consensus, that should this ever become a viable option. We don't want to waste time. Hobbling with each other. We want to work from the same template arrow or it will just to finally clear

Now we are still worldly. Halfway through the year, there hasn't been a ton of movement in the polls, although we ve seen kind of like bumps fur people here and there and incremental rises as we have discussed. What looking forward are going to be the sat pieces that we should be looking to see if Elizabeth more it takes off or if budget really takes off or bite, you know become letter. This pseudo events, one of the pseudo events debates. It's also a big new cycle. That's right like what like, if it, there's a major move by the Trump administration. Like I say, if the tropical meet, let me bring up topical bingo here. If but actually impose tariffs on Mexico and, like a grew like international economic incident started. Maybe that, what's would become then event in the campaign right, but think for, I think from now on. What's weird about present Your campaigns is its stops along the way like the debates like,

oh everyone's denial of this weekend to eat butter. But then also, how the handle the curve balls that it in world events, and them right like how do they respond to? rarely to drown in aid of a huge part of it. Absolutely ear. What guidelines talking about is that the financial crash basically happened in the last month and a half of the cap, Like Russia also going into Georgia, I feel ex there actually so many little crises that happen will enjoy Kirk's asking Sarah Palin about like the President of Georgia. While the big thing into has neat was that John Mccain said he was going to stop campaigning back to Washington to concentrate on the financial crisis Brok. Obama was like I can do both of this. Time which It was, as it turned out, a savvy flax, although that was, I think,

is not a laughing matter. It was high costs a terrible time in the world economy in for a lot of people, but that, obviously I think Obama had been ahead in the polls for awhile and yeah You know why that got kind of spun into a big negative for Mccain, is interesting in and has to do with media secondary, I also look- maybe everything I'm looking for is the thing I mention briefly earlier. Are you gonna start to see big democratic groups. Such as labour unions as well as all these people attract track. As a Torture, senators centres and governors are what are they started way in in a more robust way. They have so far Did you see a lot of people saying? Well, we were, can almost rated do this and then someone else will searching and we were quite sure we're gonna keep our powder fairly dry. You know, by the way, I think the other candidates not talked about very much is commonly Harris and try to figure out like a she coming.

Going or- or you know I don't know I, while we are going to leave it there. Thank you need, thank you. Thank you Clare hey scale in my name is given drew tony chow is in the control room, and I want to welcome our new interned Jake. Our low shall be with us for the summer and we ve got some exciting stuff planned that shall be helping us went so look out for that. You can also get in touch my emailing us at par concept. Five thirty eight dot com or you can of course treated us with any questions more com. If you're afraid of the show, leave us a reading or review in the apple pie, cast store or tell someone about us thanks a lesson in and we will her