These sport coats, you guys, I look like you're going to home coming back, declared air hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm dealing group. I hope everyone enjoyed the break, we're going to dive right back into the two political stories of the fall, the impeachment and Cory in the house and the somewhat fluid race for the democratic presidential nomination we're going to de on where public opinion stands on impeachment and what to expect from the inquiry in the coming days and then we're gonna back in on the race for endorsements and the democratic primary were Joe Biden has, Deb some steam recently. Lastly, what happened? PAMELA Harris's campaign we mentioned before the holiday that Harris doesn't have a lot to be thankful for, and the media has covered this plenty so

he will elaborate on what we meant and what the media is keen on. As far as our campaign goes here at me to tackle. All of that are editor in chief needs over has gone down. Well, thanks, Galen good to hear also with us senior politics writer clamour hurry up and get ill fabulous and managing editor microphone? How are you very good that is weird to see everybody dressed up you're wrong dressed? I can't Conaway normal close Clare.

I said you guys all too acute in the suits if your hardware, sport, cardiac, if you're watching in your confuse this will not be the new norm on the pod, casts some other obligations today that require, and if you are curious, what we do. Look like. Here's, a shoutout to five thirty, eight on Youtube, go check us out the lovely tony child whose, with us in studio, keep that up and running yet Tony well done turn it next. Next pike s I'm in Iraq today, actually as the final day to get the five thirty eight swag at the store- and I got some cool hoodies ordered from the store which are real, have begun, represent at five thirty, eight dot com slash store. There is also, I believe, for the next day through Tuesday that code, five, three eight podcast is also start up and running. We want ten percent,

makes a great stockings duffer people? One of my nephews asked me, for I got request all the time. Five. Thirty eight dot com slash. I don't think he knows who we are like that either way whether people know what we are now a great great stockbroker. That's what I'm gonna get youth clear, Don Quixote, five, thirty, eight, so sweet! Alright, let's begin with, PETE ran and we're gonna keep the somewhat brief because will be covering the hearing later this week, and we are also going to get the results from our panel pole with Ipsos later this week as well. But before the break, we noted that there is a dip in support for it. Trend, but that we were waiting for new high quality poles to come out, and that was a dip in our tracker. Now our tracks shows support for impeachment removal back up near its all time, high of forty eight percent with forty four percent opposed so now do we have a better sense now of what caused that debt? Was it a change in public opinion or something specific to the polls that were in the field,

that time. No, we don't really know because we cannot have this these gaps where like for some reason there are like no super equality. Telephone poles conducted for appeared about two weeks, yeah sort of thing we're pulses for switching from asking. Do you like the impeachment process it focusing almost in, early on, should frumpy impeached, so nominative stories can tell both of which are plausible, one of which is that you see Adam in Congress to meeting all the staff that that momentarily causes support for impeachment to go down, and then silently. Comes out, and that shifts it back up. Your story is that hey it's fairly high the whole time, but hasn't really moved all that much and I tend to favour the latter story a bit more. That's kind of the outcomes razor story that you know people kind of flipped out over a few poles of mixed quality, and now that you have more pulling last week than a kind of his right back, where we hearted court does seem like were in an equilibrium now, as they were entering a new phase of the impeachment inquiry.

Seem like the next stage will be any different from what we have already seen in terms of how the grasp, why don't know I mean because I think last weekend I was on the side of the economic sense to me that that this, this drop in support, makes see now, maybe the republican arguments persuasive and now we have no information. It seems like it wasn't as persuade Bisbee thought. I think, though, we ve seen the kind of, television prime time case. What happens this week will be a lot more dry. The Democrats have said that this Wednesdays judiciary hearing will be more legally stick you no kind of this solemn process sort of thing, and I think we ve already had the kind of company My narrative, storytelling and so barring something really big, which is completely possible. You know, I think that people probably have maybe locked in a little bit to an opinion, but I mean I don't know why. I just say that, based on the fact that the narrow

storytelling part of the impeachment has we sort of was done on tv, dear unjust, elaborate on what comes next as you mentioned Wednesday, the hearing moves to the Judiciary Committee, where they investigate whether or not this was a violation of the constitution, also the intention committee is going to release a report and then we ve heard that there could be a vote on articles impeachment by MID December. Oh, my god I mean, does any of those kind of three events seem like move the needle on this much I'm up two minds about. Is actually. On the one hand, you note the fact that Nearly half the country's supports. Impeaching Trump is stunning. Impeachment is a is a drastic step, one that the public for a long time was against. So you can look at it and think: ok, well, Demo

pretty successfully prosecuted their Kate is right. On the other hand, support for impeachment still lags by a few points, trumps disapproval rating. Well, let me let me clarify that. Actually support for the impeachment process matches trumps are proliferating almost exactly courting tar tracker. Fifty two point: four percent supported the impeachment process. Fifth three point five percent. According to our approval, tracker disapprove of the president, but if you look at only pose asking of trumped should be impeached or impeached M removed. Support is, at forty seven point, seven percent, so nonsense, you could argue well, there is still potential people that could be convinced that are not happy with the job that the President is doing that some more optimistic spin for democratic more pessimistic. Spain would be that there are a few people who are alike. I don't like the president right, but dont focus unemployed

when voting in a year anyway. It's not like a huge number of people, but like it may be a group of swing voters that field Way. Out of the presence of operating has not really changed, may have gone down by a pointer too, since the kind of star of the Ukraine scandal. Looked at that way than its Ike. Well, Democrats basically manage to convince everybody who disapproved of tromp that he should be impeached. Look at that way, then it's like well, how much did they really accomplish there? I mean this point wrapping up, How many people are undecided clearly mentioned that opinions are pretty baked in. Obviously, looking at the nuts we cited there are some undecided people, rightly yeah, mean it's about forty seven, forty four, which means that there are onto a math into nine percent people are undecided. Is that the price is that a small segment of the country after everything that has

in air out in the media over the past nine on think it's crazy to think that some people would feel ambivalent. Lee I mean impeachment is a serious step right. It's only been done times of war and a history, and so you know so, people might have ambivalence about that, and I don't think it's a may not think we give too much blame to Americans who are undecided, Dewey blame them make clearly does he know, but actually there. On that note, I do think you know gone back to will any of the next. The next couple events in the impeachment process. Will they change public opinion again. My first guesses maybe not, but we do know from the polling. We ve done with Ipsos that the most persuadable voters unemployed, and are also the voters ping, the least attention to it. So that's ends, maybe when the house actually holds that vote to impeach Trump, maybe that does move them need or has it that a big of that like that reaches those covered,

more tuned out people are well. As I mentioned, we are going to check back in the hearings and are penalised with Ipsos later this week. So will have more for you, then let them onto the race for endorsements, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy hymns. Four hymns dot com is a one stop shop for hair, Laskin, skin care and other wellness supplements format. You'll find licence fees, and an FDA prove products that help treat her was there's no snow Well, pelles or gas station counter supplements just prescription solutions backed by science, no more awkward in person, doctors, visits or long pharmacy lines for hymns connects you with real doctors online which could save you hours, and it's completely confidential indiscreet answer a few quick questions, a doctor will review and if they determine its right for you can

scribe you medication to treat her lost that ship directly to your door? Try hymns today by starting out with a free online visit gotta for hymns dot com, slash five, three: eight, that's F o r, each I am as dotcom slashed five three eight prescription plant are subject to doktor approval and require an online consultation with the physician who will determine if a prescription is appropriate, see website for full details and safety information. This could cost you hundreds if you went in person to the doctors office or pharmacy. Remember that for hymns dot, com, slash, five, three: it it's been a while, since we checked and on our democratic primary endorsement tracker and that's in part, because many democratic leaders have been holding out on endorsing candidates recently, though Joe Biden, lead and endorsements has picked up a bit, a key part of the reason that we tracked endorsements is because candidates with a clear we'd have a good track record of winning the nomination. Endorsements. Both worked to signify who the party apparatus wants to normal

and then may also have some effect on public opinion and that's part of what we call the party decides theory, so that we want to ask here is: is the party deciding on Joe Biden? Is there enough evidence, given that he's been taking up that the party prefers him? you gonna win? What do you think is the party deciding on Joe Biden Thanks for your desk reductive, they only doesn't let us tackle all the nuances and this problem it all down. Gimme the New Galen job is basically for you to see mean things back to after I was up to four I'm working on a model which went the listeners know that there are already a little bit lower today in nature families. I think you do and great you're punchy cutting good shipping. Whereas the motto Europe pray out, it's like a muddled record model talks totally exhausted and like an extremely sarcastic, what did you say your personal brand as a hissing noise that was called open, true

weeks, if not experienced technically Claire's. So I think there are a few different camps of people live is it one day. One be too. I think there are three camps right and there is an absence of a fourth camp which talk about rate. Cap number one like opera who who actually think that Biden is pretty fine. He is a hundred and fifty two endorsement point. That's an arbitrary number right. It's not actually that largest the total number of available endorsements. They d get by far the most endorsing of any candidate in November, one two, three four: five six seven I'm gonna counting today so seven endorsements as well. So we don't count like Tom, Veal SEC and I former governor. There doesn't fit into a category, but is a nice inertia took up in Iowa, so Biden has led indoors, threw up and there was actually his best month for endorsement since his campaign launch this spring. I think camp number two is people who archive

hoping maybe against hope that one of the other traditional nominees catches on so come out here. Scored, Booker Amy Club, which are even clean Castro, got a couple endorsements this month. These are people who would kind of fit the treaty. No credentials for a nominee in the sense of we talked about it before I kind of the Goldilocks thing, not too young, not too old, not too moderate too liberal and they are all pretty well qualified. All those Canada over performing endorsements relative to their often frankly fairly feeble, share in the polls and at their captain, You don't know what they are doing or sit on the sidelines. It's probably the largest camp. Still, you see little bit of uptake inactivity activity. You know Warren rolled out an endorsement in Illinois. For her valuable this. We can, for example, obviously Bernie with freedom of forms of so called squad endorsing hand. Those were important technical endorsements

but there are a lot of people who, I think, maybe that's the same as tendencies kind of anonymous donors reported a lot, but their definition, people are like We ain't like getting when the field organ abide our time or we don't think that its helpful anyway to endorse so to add some context are clear: what do party elites? Think of Biden, I mean probably not him. I think opinion, but basically you ve done a lot of reporting on how the parties viewing Biden yeah, I think Biden is seen as being well that's problem. They feel yet. No, I I think a lot of people see Joe Biden as a smart guy a man of a different generation, a person who perhaps doesn't have much of a connection at all with younger voters, but then again younger voters. Don't thought that much These are seen as being a super great candidate, but he is seen as being the most of fat. Generalization of party leads.

Probably seen as one of the most effective general election candidates in the sense of winning back Obama, Trump voters, You also know that there are some interesting reporting that came at last week from GO magazine and Ryan Lizzie? That was they skip? like Obama's post presidency, and you know that Obama's reported opinion on Joe Biden campaign is somewhat measured, which I have sort of gleamed as well from from that that world below that, which is to say, Obama, has a very good personal relationship with Biden, but is quite circumspect about his abilities as a campaigner, I think, but the one thing I will say is Binds campaign has bitten. Why people talk about this a little bit more or less segment about Como Harrison. What what went wrong with our campaign Biden has had a gently resilience campaign for all of the weaknesses that he

as as a candidate and as an individual, and I think that that something that is the party, oh, let's see, and whether that be as he has tons and tons of relationships in the party, whether it's because he has you know, he's well liked by black vote. There's an older voters and borders without a college education generally, I don't know he's just he's sort of of the field he aims to people to be the safest choice and I thought there is a let's go back to it, a small fee conservatives among politicians about rocking the boat about how to win elections, and I think you're kind of seeing that coalesce right now. What's your sons in terms of whether the party is deciding on vital, I think the answer is pretty clearly No one, I think they're evidence of that is how big the field was in twenty. Sixteen,

example where the party very clearly decide on Hillary Clinton parted, the evidence for that was the field was clear. Right show me got really one hour to depending on how you count serious challengers yet evidence is endorsement, have picked up a little bit Biden has gone a few them, but the vast vast vast majority of potential endorses the people were tracking, which is a pretty big universe of people, haven't endorsed anybody yet now. I think the optimistic interpretation of of all that provide in is that it's not really a poor reflection on his status as the front runner. It's just that it's a product of the fact that binding

strongest support is with groups as clear mentioned, black Loaders Non College, educated voters who aren't as well represented and democratic elite circles. I think that's optimum optimistic case for binding the less optimistic, optimistic cases. What we see in all these reports on liked elite donors and stuff, which is that they don't think he's a very strong candidate when we look at this, is that Biden has a hundred and fifty two endorsement points, and these are weighted based on if you're enough Obama endorses worth a lot of points, if some random Dnc member knows with less right. Can we take a step back just very briefly and say who exactly we're tracking here when we mentioned these points and how many people that everyone Galen Governance, that is represented as they represent? No we're tracking were actually not and we get emails from campaigns at it.

The governor centres, representatives marries a big cities. State Senate house majority and minority leaders Dnc embers statement officeholders office holders like attorneys general. I like that use of a turn, not attorney general, you really know your way around the warmer its former presidents. More candidates- us here you're. So Andrew Yang. If he were to eventually drop out, he would actually be worth five endorsement points. Party leaders meeting, like you, know, Nancy Policy, people Gunnar Berthelot. So can it you know we do people like I want more members of mayors of small towns in New Hampshire. We can track anyone, but there a lot of people that we track. Almost a thousand answer. You said one hundred and fifty two endorsement point is how many Biden House, out of how many total that you could get at two thousand three hundred and eighty two. So that's about six

and a half per cent of the possible number of endorsement summit. I cannot tell you how our model, but look at this right harshly. It's that six point. Five percent number that it thinks is relevant right: it's not the fact that Biden has whatever a much higher share. Let me look this up in fact bite. My have thirty percent of endorse that have been made so far right, but it's the percent of all possible sources that will make the model say: ok, actually you better have six percent. Then one percent. We really mean it total only see, so he has only six percent of all total possible endorse. When there are a lot of endorse or sitting on the sidelines, then there is more chaos right right. It's more the absolute number of endorsements. That seems a matter and not the relative amount as well. Fairly clear lesson of the Donald Trump Primary right on the and you could say: okay, well, marker Ruby. It has more endorsements. Anyone else reject Bush on either hand

There were many many endorses did not endorse at all, and so, when you have few endorsements, it predicts more chaos. Work for context around this point to the best of your recollection. What about what percentage of endorsements did Clinton half in the primary right now into Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton, you know I mean she probably had half of all possible. Adored writer says that it is only right and Clinton is actually data, I mean in weird ways the Clinton Bernie Race is in some ways more problematic from like a party decide standpoint. Let me explain why I mean couldn't one that margin that primary by a fairly wide margin and twenty sixteen in the end burning when a lotta stays Clinton, when the big states for more votes, more delicate, cetera, right. Not put the contest away in a way that you might have thought early on when she had this giant lead in national law Instead, you had a prolonged contest. We're Bernie prefer Mary kind of vigorously ripe and so like a model standpoint- the motto it say: ok, that's a case where the party

he did unite around one candidate and they did not improve from point a to point B. Therefore, as is evidence against endorsements mattering, whereas in the trunk case, would say. Ok here is evidence for my kind of somewhat revised this that like, when you don't see a consensus of endorsements, then it, doesn't seem very much except that actually anything, there's more uncertainty and more chaos, Dingley in chalk that chaos or that with hope, king of endorsements this time around to the fact that there was a lot even if she won the twenty sixteen primary kind of on a walk away, that there was bad blood for lack of a better word and that in that a lot of people are a little bit afraid of saying whoops. I endorse, Biden, because I thought ok is the best chance of winning but people to judge Elizabeth WAR in one, the first two states, and then they had momentum like our Belgrade of I'll, give you what they think is not proven, but this kind of ironic, if it is true which is there

Thank the AIR Sea and Omar endorsements kind of touched off awry because it's the pace picked up since then what we were like! Ok, hey we're doing the endorsement thing after all, right that was kind of very classic go innocence. Use saying, hey? Look? We are trying to draw signal that, like Bernie is a candy who you want to get behind right and may be younger latino urban constituents, which is someone anyone Kennicott Sandy better with right, but I feel like since that endorsement happen Can you like? Ok? Actually, in Burma is using endorsements as a way to win new cycles, which he clearly was. Then the cats but back a little bit and no one's gonna say ok onwards. If I'm one kind or another, and so I think, you're sing, actually kind of more honest preferences, although I mean to cars, point relative to past per

Mary is still many of the party players are on the sidelines and the democratic endorsement primary looks more like the GNP side in two thousand sixteen than it does the democratic side. So what is like the rationale? What's the theory for why party players have not waited to a larger extent so far, I think it's a couple things. First of all, I do It's a reflection on how strong is the front runner how strong the front runner is even before they enter the race officially in house wrong, they're perceived to be research shows that has an effect on how big the field is right, and so, once you have a big field like republican tat in twenty sixteen and like this time around, then you have this issue where I know lanes can be over over done up at point, but to use the lane theory of the Moreover, a second, you have multiple viable candidates in each lane right. So, if you re super progressive member of

Whereas who really cares about economic inequality- and you also care that you're consent? and see you supporting torchbearers of that cause. Do you support Bernie or worn, which one do you endorse? Well, it's not really clear right or if you're, you know from more moderate district but say, and you want to support, someone who's! More luck, the ball, someone who again your constituents are gonna, be happy or supporting well, you could go with Biden, you could go with Buddha judge at they are points in a race. You could have even gone with Booker, whoever right Harris. So like there's this kind of a paradox, choice going on. I thing where you can, Knowing that I Zack incorrectly time to China signalling still listening? Thank you.

Those go. My mental barbecue note I mean like gets. I you know, I mean I think it's not like. There's one type of catch up on one type of mustard a month type a relish, and if your catch up, you like? Ok, that's my catch up, I feel like relish gets underrated, relaunch the good condiment. If relish were. Democratic candidate in twenty twenty who would it be Booker, interesting, unhurt Then. You know the unheralded Canada there, when everyone secretly likes its established and yet Is it on your dog or so to get the key a little bit on violence position. We imagine that he's leading in the door endorsement points he has a hundred. Fifty two closest behind him is Harris with ninety five than warrant with sixty five Booker, with fifty nine centres, with forty eight closer with forty seven, and we go down the line. What are either roadblocks or an optimistic case for guidance position,

now given both endorsements and where he stands in ports. Clare, I mean if he doesn't do well in Iowa. It's not the death now by any means of his campaign. But a lot of senators thing staying on the sidelines, there aren't gonna be a lot of people for any of these candidates who are sticking their necks out. I mean it, like a yo see another on Omar are sort of the exceptions on in many ways to the elected official rule because people are playing at safe. So I think guessing, will see more endorsement. Is that as the first primaries get closer and closer for sure, but I think Biden has two. I think, he's to nudge up his pole. Numbers of it in an iron Iowa. Yeah he's not is not a great, so I think that's kind of that problem if I were, if I were in one of these people, that we're tracking that's kind of what I'd be keeping an eye on right is, like, I guess, he's just launched a bus tour across Iowa called

The no malarkey toil Malarkey so Biden as they would say, Barnstorming Iowa. Currently, the optimists occurs for Biden. I think is that there is thing that kind of stands in his way is one way to put it right. It significant that are enduring her prolong search in the polls, because there was talk about it may be born, is more accessible than Bernie to the party establishment or she can build bridges. You know she I came to remedy endorsements during that period. The come along Harris's what her later right. She with someone who almost Clyde Biden in endorsements at one point and she has had her own problem- is right. So I mean what I kind of interpret this to mean is that, if any of Warren Sanders or Buddha perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire that the parties gonna be quite interested, pretend lay in can someone who is not one of these three, probably Biden

come back and Nevada South Carolina Super Tuesday and hold that door open. I think right I mean because the other three I mean bidest, very old, that's the problem for him, because if we are not exactly traditional com, it's been clearly put it is not traditionally well credential. Sorry, peat lands for dynamic, she's right doesn't mean you can't having picked Trump wasn't a prudential brighter Jimmy Carter was kind of a governor, but, like an outsider right can happen, Bernie would clearly be a factional cat, eight kind of runs against part establishment, you shall Germany's warrants a bit closer and some he's like kind of the most important the primary so far, I think, is that period from MID September. Now we're MID October to now we're like where war, Ghana, destruction, the poles and then began to have issues but, like you know I think there and I await laws would be devastating. Biden, given the other three front runners right now, as it might be indifferent circles

and endorsing are part of that we are the way I do think. If, if Biden were to perform well in Iowa, you might see a bunch of people bandwagon then I think it gets tricky. But can we look? Here's a question, though, how much does who wins Iowa indicate to the party establishment is viable and who they should get on board with I mean, for example, in two thousand: a Hillary Clinton had a clear lead and endorsement going into Iowa but then she lost Iowa and then tables turn significantly to Obama, eventually leading and poles, and an endorsement so does Iowa have the ability to not make people kind of coalesce around Biden per SE, but just pick a different front runner up I think if you had Harris when I was somehow or club, HR, Booker Lillian Castro, their hands as the like, I am not. Sure I mean I'm pretty sure that you will never any point. Have a consensus of party elites behind Bernie. That's you

the safest and well, I'm somewhat sure that you're gonna see a lot of resistance to boot. A church I am slightly less sure that you'd see a lot of resistance to warrant a mean. Still, if I were, if our Biden Warren urge to point out is still after, like a club, Sir Jurek Paris, comeback are the things that are Booker bounce would be the things that would but that's actually. So I would actually reverse. What are the chances Let's say Buddha Judge wins Ire, Iowa that the party coalescence behind them not totally, but in some meaningful way. I think that action, maybe more of an open question than if Warren went Iowa like in some ways the fact that or indeed have this prolonged, climbing, a pause, and ever really received a meaningful increase. Endorsement is telling, and I think maybe should make us reevaluate hat, like I think all of us went into this campaign. Thinking

Worn is me firstly, more acceptable to the party establishment then say errors, but maybe it's not maybe she's not meaningfully more acceptable. The fact that Harris had a much more momentary blip in the polls and yet got way, endorsements at a bad than Warren, says something yes, Three. I think in some ways, Warren as warrants popularity has grown worry from party establishing people about her has grown with it because of the healthcare plan, but I shall put also point out: Ok, there's a ton. There have been and remain a ton of candidates in this race, as there in the twenty sixteen republican primary. How many endorsement points to Trump get like forty think we're like none until after Iowa right, we weren't reckoning as wide a universe of adore, sir. So like I just say that we should bring that up. I have like, like yellow

or you can. You can win without right? Somebody could win without the party ever coalescing behind them great. We should. I think we all know that that, like just just for listeners, we're not saying that you need, but we're not saying that the party besides necessarily holds army monasteries beating, I think again, Figo correction performing scarcely deleted. Edward on programming. The model can, as we speak I think I'm. I would actually say that the endorsement is largely good for Canada outside of the top four, because it means that alive or is being kept dry. It mean if you were to have potential for a late surge that there could be excitement about that. So it's not like it's good news for Buddha gesture, something that does leading endorsements. Doesn't that many right? It's like kind of bad news for although front runners and suggest that, like we some ways still relatively early stage. The press a lot and I could argue it's good NEWS for Sanderson Warren cause. If, if there are unacceptable to the party establishment in some ways,

then the more there they establishment keeps there her dry is disorganized, doesn't coalesce beyond somebody that leaves the door I'm in the same way that for Trump right now we're going to move on? But I just one quick question: when exactly can listeners expect that we will publish be five hundred and thirty eight democratic primary, On average, I think I'll be I think it will be next week or the week after somewhere and arrange our is after that the average is committed for a model yeah. That's what you asked for right, yeah, yeah! Well, they gillis NEWS a little insight into editorial process,

are for our final segment today, we're gonna talk about the state of calmly Harris's campaign, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy quip. What actually makes a better toothbrush industrial strength, power claims of miraculous trendy ingredients multiple modes. Well, if you ask your dentist, they'll tell you it's less about the brush and more about how you use it. That's why quip was created by dentists and product designers to focus on what actually matters for your oral health, healthier habits, quipped, sensitive vibrations, with a built in timer guide, gentle brushing for the dentist recommended two minutes with thirty second pulses: ensuring and even clean quip automatically delivers brush heads too you every three months for clean new bristles right on schedule, good habits matter to live a healthier life so help

I'm fresh oral habits with quip crib starts had just twenty five dollars and you'll get your first refill free at get quip dot com, slash five, three eight! This is a simple way to support our show and start brushing better, but you have to go to get quip dot com, slash five, three: eight that get quip q, you ip dot com, slash five three eight. Today's package is also brought to you by eighty t: commercial for business: it's not politics as usual these days, and it's not business as usual at eighty eighty, two commercial source, businesses ranging from its eyes, organizations to large scale, enterprises, think of them as national security advisers for your company. They provide comprehensive security, fire life safety and risk management, solutions, professional great systems for commercial, great businesses, the

What can one thousand trust? Eighty t commercial for highly complex scalable, integrated solutions and, if you're looking for a great partner to a great or take over the monitoring and service of your current system, eighty commercial can help to install and maintain large scale and multi site business. Dependable businesses choose eighty commercial for their complex security solutions, visit, HTTP, dot com, slash five, three, eight to learn more again: that's eighty t, dot com five three eight tor and, more recently, the state of Cobbler Harrison's campaign has been the subject of plenty of media scrutiny. He seeming promising campaign that reached a high after the first democratic primary debate is now calling in the low single digits alongside Andrew Yang. So we want to take. The title you pick your own yang, but because there are the closest she's, a three point, something and he's a three point: something

Paul needs on full Yang. Why you be our guide pudding boys made Yang Gang, aren't so We want to discuss what some of the high policies may be for why Harris has created in the polls after high of fifteen, that put her in the range of centres and Warren, and I dont think that we can certainly come to one conclusive answer here, because campaigns are complex but clerk us off your water, some ideas for me, why Harris's campaign has gone south. Yet you know twenty, I'm thinking back to a peace that I read about, Comma Harris back in May and it is largely in. I went to him triceratops and people who had known her in her early politics and largely a piece about the notion of Elect ability and identity and how Harris sort of reacts to the question of whether black woman can can win the nomination and the one

but did strike me among you know, talking to people who had worked really really closely with her was people said: she's, very private. She's there? You know she sort of she's all in on the work she speed about, but she's she's, quite up she's a person is hard to get to know personally, and I keep I keep thinking back to that. As I read all these reports about the problems with her, Pain, because a lot of the problems seem to boil down to. There was lack of a cohesive narrative from the top about what kind of campaigner was right. So Harris has has taken a lot of criticism, for her campaign. You know using a lot of pull tested lines and various ones throughout the primary Where was she gonna lean into her record as a prosecutor? Was she going to apologize, for? It was a central thesis campaign gonna be was gonna, be I'm a truth. Teller or was it gonna, be aiming to prosecute trump and there there's a lot of talk in the reporting around her campaign that

her sister Maya, whose her campaign chair and her campaign manager, who is not her sister there's been a lot of time gin and ideas between what the two of those those two people think Harris's campaign should be. What destroys she strategy should be initially. I think Harris's team frankly thought she would be doing better with back voters. Go into the reasons why perhaps there's a baby hesitation among black voters to support Harris, but there is virtually a South Carolina focus strategy? Now it's a little more, I will focus, we gotta prove to people. We can win so her camp in has suffered, protect, perhaps strategically, but I think its undeniable them that Harris has been in the national public. I sense too. Sixteen me now she's a black. Woman senator she has drawn from now on a decade, comparisons to Barack Obama

and she is she- you know she is a force for public speaker. She has you know she certainly has a charisma on television, so I think there's lots of reasons to fit for people to have fought You know that she was gonna be a star. She was gonna, remain adopt your candidate, but also Interestingly, it will, I think, some some personal, strategic reasons why her campaign as having trouble so a question about the strategy of South Carolina specifically and part of the reason for focusing on this topic as because of reporting from the New York Times and political and here's a quote from I'm sorry to call over the weekend quote a strong showing in South Carolina which votes forthwith vault. Her interracial, diverse, super Tuesday states like California, that would propel her candidacy. So for much of the year she focused on competing against Joe Biden in South Carolina and beyond. What her campaign did not anticipate was that Mr Batten would remain strong with black voters and the Senator Elizabeth Warrant and Mayor PETE Buddha Judge would rise as threats

in Iowa, New Hampshire, so was focusing on South Carolina. The fourth state to vote always about idea, or is this just something you have to try and then find out whether or not I was working? What do we make of that strategy specifically, We have worked hard day, seen through ok, so one hypothesis for one well, what went wrong with our campaign of it is that it was like mismanage right and the New York Times and political have reporting to that effect. Basically- and this, I think is evidence of that, might my question would be if you're strategy is to focus on South Carolina. Why would you them beast pies that other candidates would rise as a threat in Iowa and New Hampshire did you think they would just gonna not campaign? There are selling it's like they like, if not for the five or six major driven to the campaign. We'd have gotten everything rights exactly has only so, but but maybe maybe, if they hadn't then see that an and change

where's the focus on Iowa, maybe if they had been like screw, that it's kind of what the final campaign is doing right screw, that we're focused here and we're and we're going to keep work, Maybe it would have worked, but look there like a bunch of plausible explanation, for why Harris has struggled. Ok, one binding a strong right back. Voters really like Biden nobody has been able to really eat into his led among black loaders, that that explains a lot of this too. Flexibility has been an overriding concern in this campaign. Harris is a black woman running in a country that just elected So, although running for the nomination of a party that just nominated a woman and before that a black candidate, yes- but I think it's different this ten year running for a party that just nominated the

Female major party nominee who just lost a trunk, and so a party that is in in many ways, kind of like Shell, shocked and worried about Nominating candidate, who is not white male, maybe more worried than they need to be. I think our voters, are we talk a lot this year about our democratic voters are super strategic, all the stuff. I think black voters have been very strategic up like let's go back to two thousand eight that our example right back. Voters did not initially support Obama in South Carolina. You know a lot of people I talked to in South Carolina first or I didn't Joe Biden brought up Obama and Harris, Harrison's and they said, Obama wasn't doing well in South Carolina until he proved to black voters that he could win white people in Iowa right and you know

Jim Kleiber and said to me kind of essentially means that should become a Harris's strategy right, which is to say, prove to black people that you can win white people prove that you are double right and that's, and that is something that may be that she's. Obviously I think her Spain has bought into because she's kind of guy whole hog on our planet intended, but whenever a consequence of the weird primary system that we have that totally elevates ways, and I wonder- and I do think I mean to go back to their- is tons and tons of talk among the Democratic Party of like I wouldn't Hampshire or not at all representative of the Democratic Party or of the demographics of the country. So, let's focus on Carolina Nevada, California, wherever Paris is obviously front from and where there are tons of delegates. Now. Harris is kind of like people go after her California, delegates right, like a boost, has his eyes on California, their original strategy of

worse, gonna win. You know the big post, I wouldn't Hampshire States, that's where we're really gonna pick up a lot of votes, and I got competition for that stuff to potentially right how much do campaigns matter? Why do we have a general sense historically in a primary of how much is the person's ability to win up to their own personal talents, their profile, the state of national politics versus the actual campaign structure? That's why Well, let's let separators to and take them one at a time. So one though bomber comparison, I do think throws into sharp relief the question how much this candidate performance matter here Harris is an immensely talented politician. Obama was a once. A generation, talented politician and so Harris has a really great first debate, climbed in the pause and then kind of gets hit for a number of reasons, kind of waffling on health care, her. Now

couple debate performance, as I think weren't as well were viewed. How much does that explain? I don't really know, but I think does point to the fact that it took a bomb are being you know, crazily talented, as opposed to just super town, did so that one point a different. How much that matters verses, Ike the report, Ed messy ness and disorganization, an inability to like set on a strategy of the campaign at. I think that suffered, as I also think just it just pushed back a little bit like on the Obama. Stuff I'm, not translated Brok about Miss hunters of extremely talented politician happy, but also, There are also a couple key differences between Obama and Harris. The first thing that comes to Fine with me is Obama was a relative, moderate right, and that was that was kind of on purpose right. He has always been extremely up front about his political pragmatism. The you know he's been really really.

During the primary winded. Did he choose to speak out more vocally not to endorse candidate or towards sort of true publicly push back and trump around impeachment. He talked about so did the outrage culture on the left and how he thought that that was damaging. So interesting actually write like he is a person who was always put his I'm a moderate, compromising guy First Harris many others in the Democratic Party, not a single her out, but she certainly has painted herself as more liberal, more progressive. Now you can make the argument that she's waffles back and forth on that throughout the campaign, but there you have it two Obama's a man and Harris is a woman. Just a third in there that that that also exists right. The idea of a of a woman verse, a black woman, Russia's a black man, that's a place in, but I do think that the moderate thing for us is. The progressive thing is also a very key difference in in winning a party primary. Like this, so There are two excuses campaigns sometimes have that we might kind of latch onto if we are trying to be so

for a campaign that is failing or perceived a feller after fail ripe, one of which, the campaign never really kind of got tracking to begin with it a little bit hard to do that. It definitely can be in a twenty six: it race hard to like actually monopolize attention. Harris treated including by art, this news outlets by thirty eight as a front runner got plenty of media coverage, maybe wasn't always positive but like she was taken quite seriously. Secondly, how much second, guessing as there are the critiques that you're making me there are criticised in real time or in a post, facto rationalizations. With errors, I think actually other stuff- was criticized in real time. Her kind of pull back in a second debate, very strange for issuing a healthcare plan in between the two today She wasn't really kind of prepared to defend, was very strange right, pushing too far to the left when you, add Bernie and more in the field with something at least as outlet was, though, but that might have been the best strategy,

right kind of saying I'm willing to Iowa is a very weird strategy. I don't know so I it is like you now. There has been a lack of commitment to it had no strategy- and, like I don't know, I think, is actually one of the case where in decisiveness, mismanagement act. It may be used the right story. Other also like look. If you go back and look at the list, I look get up a list of kind of that. Priscilla and Harriet and put together in December, who, former five thirty eight league and still friend here shall not be named Harry. Who is with the snow right now and in the Middle EAST like in general on that list. The white male candidates with better work, except the accepted, have tended to perform Well relative expectations and anyone who's a minority or woman has now reform that Y all relative to expectations saw you know it's worth pointing out? Also we had this.

Historically diverse field, and now that we're really down to adopt here for three of whom are white men. Yes of that of course, Sanders. If United Democratic Party is data, TAT language Kashmir clears referring to an article that she wrote. Wait. Wait! That's why seventy but sure footed they are called a civil discretion momentarily I mean, I think, Clare. You mentioned this in last week's podcast that at the beginning of this primary raised, a lot of people took warrants campaign for dead. Basically, yeah is hers. Steady rise in the pool a result of a well run campaign, which kind of if we ve got question around a little, but I think the difference between worn and Harris's campaign is in one's been around a decade in national politics and she's always had a very specific brand and her campaign has built on that brand man. I do think that that's a strength. You know the date they did come back from the native him.

Can a controversy rate of she once the nomination that'll certainly become that'll, certainly Hunter in the general against Trump, but I think the other. So I think I think war and has a very well run campaign. Actually, yes, I think you know this. EL feline thing, whatever you think about a waste of time, a stick its certainly reach viral retail politics right and that's and it's a thing that people know her campaign by Harris, I think, suffers in some ways because she certainly not due to politics but she is only three years into her national political reputation, her national, her perforations. National politics and her natural brand being a prosecutor is something that has gone out of evoke you know among some circles and last couple: Just now, but she seems to be getting back into it and prosecuting the case against Trump, I think there's an argument you could make that like moderate white democratic voters, maybe would be into the prosecutor thing, but

it's a little understandable why she was backing away from the way that she built her career, because there's a lot of trouble a criminal justice- and you know looking back on the past couple of deck decades, of how a man Can you think democratic Party and included prosecuted drug crimes and sentencing was done and who the people were at the front lines that was inevitably prosecutors. So it's, I think it's tougher she's us she's a very, I think difficult situation as well Monica campaign considering how much a message on healthcare- that's it I mean, that certainly like a big misstep, but I think over all building a brand she's built our brand among democratic vote over internet stuff like running and waving and totally lines, as you mentioned eight months to a year ago. If you told me that Elizabeth worn would be the top three one of the top three candidates in the democratic primary. I would have been like that. That, though, I think Romano, because a year and a half ago cause we did you stupid drafts in whenever right,

this consistently someone who wears Regard as as a front runner, a very formidable cat, eight and then had a period in December. Exactly a year ago, you're right exactly a year ago, was Pocahontas and was a kind of very kind of false start for Warren but like, but you know I mean she's had I think you know it Thea Sports analogy, bring it it's like a fear of how humiliating the tenure of SAM Press studio calamity thunders general manager, it's kind of like the James Odin Trade right. Healthcare is like training James harden I mean you can or come it. They almost want too chip without it right, but why do you like a reality tv analogy to kind of combat let alone clearly date, teams harden season. We're coming together. Like like. That's me, we were debating Paris campaign about words like this healthcare thing. She did. Ok, there you go now. I can relate to what you just said. This up.

Thing is a colossal problem for war, and that may cause the nominees I will say that will save that for another podcast another day. But can we wrap up on heritage to be overcome? why would I want to say is actually, I think, the warrant, factory is actually- and they made this point on the on the last on our Thanksgiving podcast, which I thought was a good point. Barn trajectory should caution us all in writing the Harris campaign off permanently, as Nay pointed out without a dominant front runner emerging so far. You could still agent scenarios where we're Harris gets herself back into this thing, if I were advising her idea like Iowa talk about how my people, their army, blew them, are settled in this right but like that, doesn't work for who Lancaster, but here, Castro. It doesnt have a pulse napoleon. She sort of kind of does like being like four percent to five percent, not a lot better living at one percent. But here's

and here's another case where I think you have to talk about the candidates, race and gender, where Harris is limited and how How liberal she can seem because we oh from research that voters ready are more likely to view women and non white candidates as me. Liberal than they actually are right so how's has always been kind of in this tricky place where Does she play up the prosecutor record and risk alienating black voters or for liberals borders, or does she to the left, and then you no kind of exacerbate perceptions that might might already exist. He also so oftentimes these candidates, who are kind of running not in the centre Guess moderates, but like to bridge the party together right, gossamer, like a pragmatic, general election case.

She has some of the worst numbers against President Trump actually had had poles. I think apart, because if you're like a woman, or a person of color than kind of inefficient restocking metals like than Europe. It is being more swaying, then you might be best year, prosecutions, vitally important, with worn as well right, I think war, thought hey, look, I'm kind of cleverly signalling, two different sides here: right, yeah, we're gonna, have a wealth tax, I'm a capitalist, so called right yeah. I have America for all bill, but but what else can have a plan for look option right. I think it's like harder when you're a woman people, Furthermore, left wing policy positions there to wrap up NATO about Harris being a coalition all candidate and kind of bill herself, as I think, fairly as

hey I'm someone who can keep all the different camps in a democratic party happy, including the democratic establishment, dont reason to think that these stories about The kind of mess in her campaign would hurt her more than a candidate like Bernie Sanders or someone like that, because the people who do pay attention to those stories are democratic party. It leads, and if your billing yourself as a as a coalition of candidate, you need those elite right. I have no closing. I win market while I think we're gonna leave things there. Thank you. Mate thank. You gave a beggar gradual, they sealant bedroom. I thank you again. You ve got about a day laughed too, however, to be five: thirty dot com, flash store to get ten percent off using the code; five, three eight podcast again, five, thirty eight dot com, slash store. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow isn't

to our room are in turn, is Jake Marilla? You can get in touch my emailing us podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If you're a fan, show leave us a rating or review the apple pie cast or court, someone about us, actually tells him about us. Things were listening and what her