Hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics pike ass. My name is Galen droop and we are coming to you live from downtown Austin Texas. We ve got a big Texas beam show for you today. Will taxes be a battleground state in twenty twenty We don't already have an answer. Yes will cancel that segment, it's the age old question the media loves to ask and we are going to redress it had on this evening with especial guest from Austin. Also, what's going on with taxes presidential contenders its early days, but both William and better work to young see We promising candidates are having some difficulty lifting off so Are they doing better rules or get up?

Play a of trivia and get ready audience because you are going to play with US However, before I go any further when we introduce this fabulous panel sitting next to me, we have an editor in chief made solar and other governing below Austin and senior politics. Writer, clear, MILAN love her and managing editor make your current. We ve actually been in town for a couple days already is, if you catch any Yawls is what makes this a train casually getting dream still IRA casually drinking on stage, Ruby, We Texans now ask yourself, and I also say that tonight's lie show is part of our food

if thirty on the road Syria's we're sponsored by we work and our next stop is Houston Texas on Wednesday. So if you drive your tickets had to fight the radar dot com slash alive, to get them that's most, for the listeners at home. However, if anybody here in us and also wants the company is in Texas, we have like one or two seats left in the rental, so they're yours, if you want them so we're gonna, spend plenty of time talking about taxes, but we're going to begin with the most important news of the day. Is anybody the royal baby. So they have. We published our baby name forecast. Yet I am not this topic any gases. Any forecasts I want you have one Albert Albert- my how to guess: bats: perennial matic labor it dynamiting Albert Albert Hank, Hank,

was the country now just Hank, so in earnest. Now, let's begin with taxes is presidential contenders there Of course, former secretary of Housing and urban development and former me San Antonio coolly, on Castro and former congressmen from El Paso and darling of the twenty eighteen midterms better or work so Clare said the for us. We're do those to stand in the field right now. I think we have to look we're setting the latest couldn't Blackpool as r r r the gold standard pull right now. I think clean Castro has been pulling steadily

but one percent for most of the time that he's been in the race, but the latest couldn't be a pole, puts better work. The last the last time that connected pulling in late March, he was at about twelve percent in this latest version, he's at five percent, so he's taken a dive they're both doing not so hot. Not, I mean again it's like eighteen months until the presidential elections, a who knows me, I think, maybe part of our work. Steel is like he's looking for that next sort of viral moment or he's hoping that he can be a workforce in Iowa whatever, but they ve they both I've been just sort of coasting along the past few weeks I mean. Is it fair to say that their during poor, we I mean? Is it is too early? Are there the people in the field. To really make that judgment not look. I think I think they should not be grouped together, necessarily think better clearly underperforming expectations and he did

like a little bit of a balance after declared tenant when the Quiney pay pose conducted, but light. You raised a lot of money. It's a lot of money he's at four or five or six percent, which is not good, but it is also good for, like fifth or sixth place and so for him you, you know you can still see some passed back, the most obvious one being that he does have a lot of money. Therefore he has more runway, he does and pain Alot jumps up on alert goals and so forth, but his path that could be gradually you and our voters in Iowa, and you see that shift in Iowa we're Alison's at eight nine ten percent and then that change the conversation about him a little bit. So you know, whereas Castro never really had any type of lift off, also begin with never got there, much media coverage never has gotten much more than one percent only recently actually hit the sixty five thousand person donor threshold, which are working in a day. So I put

better in this kind of middle tier of tat age with like Corey, Booker and Amy but char people who kind of you can see how go right and they're not going right right now. Castro is it a tier behind we're like he would have to have break out to get in like that waiting offset. Each year and then have some further moment recent. Why is why aren't they doing better? I would I would ask the crowd of something's wrong with Texas. Clearly you guys can I can I could candidates. I think Castro's suffers from the fact that he cannot have essentially tooth years off from any national attention, he served the Obama administration, but the past. The Trump era has given a lot, tension to Washington Democrats, so people who are senators who are making news in front of tv cameras because we now

see congressional testimony is important. Viewing so calmly Harris had a really big. Frankly, like I think she probably fully decided to be a presidential cabinet in part, because she thought listen. I got a really great organic response from those hearings. I, run cast your kind of suffers for having been completely out of the cycle? And you know he had his moment of what a rising young star a decade ago. Let's say so: he's he's a little bit. He kind of game uncomfortable middle ground period of the Democratic Party under Obama, where you know he was gonna, be are the future, but now all these people are kind of skipping forward and you only have to serve in the south for a couple years before you run for president will not or work is certainly a two year above Castro,

moment. But if I were works campaign, I think I actually might be a little more worried then cast for this campaign because he came into the rays. Got a lot of attention raised a lot of money and sort of had a chance there to put a flag in the ground, get some support, and now you ve seen his support dip. Castro hasn't really had its chance now, maybe we'll never get it, but, like Catherine, hasn't been rejected by voters. But like wings, your father will sign rejected by voters. I mean I'm pretty that at this point like yes, it's over now in it, the same ability ratings for better there about the same as they were. They ve always been steady right and about forty five, fifty famous we'll ten or fifteen percent unfavourable and then thirty one percent no opinion. Is it the media turned from him as the more interesting story we can debate why that is, I think it's partly because, like I don't know

doesn't have. Maybe is interesting messages. Some other Democrats, you all have a field where you have, but you can leading the poles, are our straight white men and so what kind of wonder I mean? I still wonder at some point: someone's going rain itself. Where color and women. I can imagine a raise You don't have more prominence for some of those candidates and he doesn't is not someone who would benefit from that and so suffers all suffer from villages, virus American Vienna, mention repeat yet, but yeah no, I mean I was not joking, there's like at a bar on a taco crawl. Any starts neither day right and like this guy, like I do not know now. I know who I was right, like pointed better sticker finally off Place. Our needs over can be anonymous and he's like I like people edge. She actually said it like that kind of a very deliberate boot edge way. This kind of said that to the market

what kind of a biker looking dude, which is an interesting constituency, but not- and I guess it's- I guess it's weird but like, but no clearly lie If you already have the white men as a group I'm getting more votes and they will in the long run, and you have another. White Man Day white man who searches and that I think, would affect things as well here I mean, I think, he's been a little bit behind the bar as far as having moments right so their couple things like he hasn't I stand in town hall, yeah right. So, like that's away that, like Buddha Judge, you could see the fundraising bump that he got from that. He hasn't had a moment like war and said: let us abolish the electoral college. Let's impeach Trump work is kind of been like parent somewhere in the same in the kind of way of like I'm on it, The kid a little Betsy which way the wind is blowing and then maybe I'll, take a stand right under the yoke reasonably subsidies for impeachment. Now right did. He hasn't really been kind of forging a path in any

he has been blazing a path which is by the way, kind of how he won. Texas righty was palatable moderate, who went over and was not had crews right and that's how I mean that was a lot of what he had to do, but I think he's kind of in this weird space right now with what twenty one other people, twenty other people where it's like, what's he doing right now, what you done for me lately is kind of like the producer Was the circumstances of the twenty eighteen Senate raise in taxes that made better baddow more than some that is special about him specifically to any too early to tell

Why thank you so I think it has to be a little. I think it's a little too cruel to take all the credit away from home. I think erratic campaign. You know he made me not be to the taste of some people, but clearly he stood a taste of a lot of people. Is he's raked in a ton of money and look like clears point. It is incredibly early if either, if you know, if they work and pain, the Castro Camp and where the Harris campaign. If they're they're saying to themselves, let's play the long game. We don't want to the tunnel news yeah we're still over many months out, that's not a crazy strategy, we're not to the first debate. Yet you know we're gonna make maybe they're waiting for the first debate, this sort of, like maybe that's when the Texas candidates will finally make their mark not look. I really, I think it means how can Texas turning purple segment? I think what you did twenty a team was quite impressive that if you just for it

partisan lean of the state and the fact that crews not the most popular incumbent but still incumbent when is Martin was quite good. Only by three or two point: seven, whatever it was an effect that turn out with so much higher, I think is, is pretty impressive. So it's a priest, the optimistic about him and another reason might be that, like I think he realize, like I don't need till. I have a hopeless of attention right now, I'm kind of missing into the window. Little bed with the mare urgent and the intention around Biden who got as much coverage last week is all Mc Grath combine by take you know. We ve been in this pests awhile while I like that be like five or six more time. Parliament, too candidate surges searches and the question is who staying power when they surge is any rule that says you can only search once made twenty twelve. We saw like New Gingrich search like three times. I think- and you know said it is a kind of us like thing. Where who has the resources to stay and longer, which is good for battle? Who is

luckily have a break out moment. Debate. Again, this might be my taste, I might say, he's not one of the most likely bets more subjective, obviously given to Bates, aren't really debates and their mostly ways fear for Canada to sort of get out portions of there's some siege and, like other and its interrupt them, and I could see better actually, potentially being good at that. No I'm serious, I mean I shouldn't I answer. If I can end up first, I think the thing. That's that's so weird about the way american political candidates, quoting quote debate, is that it's in your debate. It's not actually actually really getting any sort of substantive. Why I mean it up a little street. Yes, I still haven't we like talk really fast, and so I still probably talk but like printed Does a permanent Canada goals in those debates, especially like the though the first one, like the twenty percent it is just a kind of like say something for for a couple of minutes that makes people think like what a nice guy and maybe I mean I'm so the other thing is like a works. Team could be a little bit.

Gun shy about all of this sort of blow back for the very first, Maybe that's why they haven't done a CNN town Hall like they may be Lang low a little bit show don't worry about our work, to wrap up. At this point we talked about castors actual Lee, his theory of the case when he announced What would you have to do right now to gain traction nationally or at least in a couple states that make people take them seriously. I dont think it takes a lot. Actually, I think, like are actually talking at lunch today that it is like in terms of twenty twenty, it's kind of been pouring couple weeks, maybe two three weeks, and so it doesn't take that much that tab you know with brutal judge, it was Town Hall and Castro's really interesting,

one of our writers, Perry Bacon did a piece about Castro's. You know a major latino candidate in a democratic party where the Tina voters are a huge part of of the electorate, and you start to think yourself. Well that should work, but then he looked through it through democratic primaries, passing and The Tina voters have never really coalesced around a candidate in the way that, like black voters, have, for example, behind Clinton and twenty. Sixteen, nor bomb in two thousand and eight and the computer Parry made, which I, which you know, who knows if it'll happen again, but I think it's telling is early in two thousand aid, like two thousand seven black voters were more split between Obama. Clinton and it really took Obama, winning eyewash and and more gender. It just doing? Well, before you saw black voters go wholesale closer, but more more overwhelmingly behind him, so I do wonder with Catherine

can get a moment. We are and being that you have the first prove that your electable, before kind of your maybe natural constituency as far as identity goes jobs on board fully yet look. There is research that shows isles being equal. This is like research and in city level. Races stay by this is that that latina voters will vote for other Tino Canada. Over other, can't again oils being equal, but yet you know if here, if you are a black voter in in two thousand and eight wanted a little evidence that hey this disguise for real did. There has never been a black major party nominee, fear latina butter. Now I think you you're waiting a little bit for evidence that this does for real. Yes, like South Carolina was Obama's proving ground too. Next out with black voters to, maybe Castro has to wait till which is a little bit, I think Perry makes this point is peace, and that is a bit far down the primary calendar. I mean not super far, but enough that people

build media coverage momentum. They wins they when primaries any. If he has to wait for that state. That could be a little bit like too long on the is it your any candidate, not name Biden is that the race second is key, hey pretty wide open where you ve had Bernie faltered, like fifteen or sixteen percent, and I don't think a super strong. Sixteen given his name recognition, and so I don't know so who can form a good contrast with Biden? we Castro, can formulate a better contrast with by men than some people. Can you know and park, Hey, hey, look, I'm! You know I'm from Texas turning her or maybe that conveys somewhat debility advantage. I think Hispanics have been, totally ignored and cover to the campaign for the most part so far, and they are like some, like fifteen percent of the democratic you're it and are important this year, given how forward Nevada text California, are in the voting process, so you know it's kind of like who will have

we're doing it. Make that claim. I dont know if it'll be hand, but if he's, if he gets there, it in any kind of former contrast, spite and whereas, whereas better, I'm not quite sure They both are probably the more moderate half of the field. Although one lesson I bet I was like he does, not a positions that I think reflect the fact that he did represent a minority majority disk where he talks about education more than most kind, it's on issues, Racial justice is often quite low. More than unlike economic issues, and so there is, some coherence. There it's kind of weird I mean I feel like all the planets, including us like focus much more than sixty percent of democratic or white, think I believe, and not as much more than forty percent, who are non white thinking believe and certainly for Castro, but also maybe in some ways for better, because we're going for younger voters number Democrats are more likely to be Minorities like can he can interaction?

hispanic wars or black voters are well. Of course time will tell, but for now let's move on to everybody, save a topic which is well taxes, be a battleground stay in twenty twenty, but before we do that, let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by we work. In fact, we are recording. This pact has lived from. We worked six hundred Congress location in Austin, this was their very first location in the state of Texas. They now have over twenty crossing alone, start state, including in Houston and Dallas. It's part of we growing network of workspaces across the? U S and the world if you exciting, openings and twenty nineteen include SALT Lake City Phoenix and LAS Vegas. We will pay special attention to the energy and history of a neighbourhood threats. Workspace design, the interior of this for example, were inspired by Wes Anderson's Austin routes. It windows pay homage to the use a culture in Austin and we works dedicated these staff like Sophie and her team here at six hundred Congress will make move

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Lopez, these senior politics reporter, I tell you, she often come on up actually around so welcome as generals or when I give big shot out to actually for helping us explore the inside us in bars this week, and she was a very key and our experience. This weakens again. I want to begin by just letting everybody lay out their position we're going to get into a lot of the different details about demographics. The twenty eighteen midterms, but just a start relatively briefly. What's with you Ashley, is Texas, a battleground state. In twenty twenty? Well, it's gonna be the closest

none of that. Maybe twenty twenty. I know it's occasion answer, but every time people act too confident about that they're wrong. Have you seen taxes they have been so I mean because it's a presidential election compared to twenty eighteen, there's going to be more, democratic, meaning voters voting, but it still Texas, I mean battles, margin was the closest. There was, in twenty eighteen out of all those races, but, like Republicans still one all date, wide races like I just don't see it changing that much so I'm gonna give you a cage currency. It's gonna, be the closest thing to about a bronze dated twenty twenty, so there are different ways: my god, you here, look even did you invest in this is a quick listens. Pike S can't seem like a dirty works here. Trying to give you a pre, emptive. Thirty look up, try to shorten the answer, so there are six different ways.

Could be considered a battleground stay there, a b and c for each one. Ok, one. Question is kind of Democrats win Texas for President twenty twenty and the answer is: yes, the Democrat wins. While I can Obama in two thousand, eight margin by seven points nationally or something or ten points been taxes probably very competitive could Texas be tipping points as we call it meaningly decisive state in a close election, I think the answer is probably not two thousand and sixteen pillory lost it by nine points I think, in an election where the tipping point it was Wisconsin where she lost by one point. So it's about eight points more gnp in a tipping point. Obviously rapporteur changing I mean I talk to my. What am I, drivers. Very Tom Friedman, no cheese, anecdote said said: you're supposed to have two million more people in a mature area within twenty years. You have. A lot of people are migrating here. You have, the white population could immoral,

oh, by the way one thing about better ways that he'd naturally have spectacular hispanic turn out the scenario where you have kind of white suburban boat. The hispanic, though, if they both were equipped for Democrats there's a kind of enough democratically, to win. Ok, so what's the answer? probably the There are eleven, most likely state to be the tipping point state borders maybe a little bit more about the circumstances that would make it about a ground stable, but first let what Clare and writer get enormous. No, I don't think taxes is a battleground state and twenty twenty I'll keep it short and sweet. I think that all of this in areas you guys have laid out or are definitely true, but if you're thinking about like you know the last four weeks of the campaign. I dont think its taxes want to be one of the places where you know democratic presidential campaign. Gonna waste, a lot of resources, particularly given twenty sixteen, that twenty sixteen hang over of losing the blue, the

quote blue wall in the upper Midwest Pennsylvania. I think that'll that a limb too large for Texas to actually become a true battleground next year, Michael We have some midwestern biased, showing here they're, just owing to their swing region. I think yes, it will be a battle I'm sorry are you just during after the applause defined I find how I think of the candidates and parties will make serious events investments into the state and battle over. Electoral votes and how seats. So you know

I know I'm sorry that you might have just one that one actual you're already seeing this like the parties are making more of an investment in Texas relative to the other states than they used to. Does that mean it's going to tip the election? Probably question does it depend? Is Texas to Texas is battleground status and twenty twenty depend on who the democratic nominees short: yes, ok, so there were all right. I've got to my mind if I, before, before we get into twenty more of twenty twenty, but what back at twenty? Eighty, four aside, of course. Actually you are covering that raise why better or close the gap to two and a half points when Greg was winning by thirteen points and George people was winning by ten points like what is it about that race? They got that the margin below three points. Better work ran about a race specially compared to loop Valdez who ran as a democratic, govern

a ship candidate she did not have as strong a campaign. That's one thing: I mean if he traveled the whole SAM. He says it all the time, I'm call him because he said it so often we traveled all the counties here. He engaged young voters, which is something candidates, don't usually do like. He did a tour of call which I dont see. Politicians do often because that's like not a good place to put your time and money cause, they tend not to devote in high numbers. Like other constituent, is, and then it was also the moment right like there was blue blue wave. That was a good time for a lotta democrats. Throne for office so and demographics have been changing in Texas. You know we talked about White College, educated voters, the suburbs or getting urbanized in Texas, so helps. So I think it's a lot of different things, but the first the reason why rag Abbot one and one such a big margin compared to TED crews was because better work. I think, just when a better campaign to feel different

like on the ground. Would you like yeah I mean, and it started really early. So I dont know if a lot of people were here for, like the very beginnings of that raise like it started with, like I noticed He was getting traction because I saw stickers on ipods and coffee shops like he will had like this brand of being like an underdog, and you know he started off like you know, not really popular, but he had some flowers points a moment and it started growing now, I'm not saying like that's gonna replicate itself, but it different, I didn't see people as engaged, especially on the democratic side. As early as that raise I've been talking about

difference between, say, look at how the bailout does dead and how better work dead. It kind of becomes obvious that some republican voters, people who at least vote for Republicans for the governors race and perhaps previously voted Republican, decided to vote for better work. So what kind of a democratic candidate in twenty twenty replicates that gets maybe moderate voters. People who voted for Republika, maybe voted for Mitt Romney voted for the bushes, all of a sudden are going to vote for a Democrat Hilary did fairly well in Texas, the two previous democratic presidential candidates? So it's it's problem. A candidate who is who is before the left is certainly not whose appeal is limited. Only voters is that won't be enough by frightening. I know about by more, maybe I mean if you think, binds more electable, whatever right but like but like with by a new kind of we find it so

about like kind of the northern path Where are you going to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and, if Biden Camp, most states then than by cares he's probably going poorly acting as more than again like Biden, I mean this is black voters. Biden has a decent amount of support from black voters, he's hired some very high profile. Black Democrats want Some months Anders was Bernie Sanders campaign spokesperson I'm sorry, you just announced a bunch of Nevada hires. I mean there is a possibility that he could be like listen, I'm going. Take this very seriously. This is my sort of Achilles heel and I'm gonna build this out. Can I drop a good of pulling bad use appalling bomb on this conversation bombers just released a pole last week that did head to head pulling in the state between democratic candidates and trump, and there was one democratic candidate who came out ahead of time in the pouring Biden, then better was tied

and Bernie Sanders with two points behind so maybe you don't like head to head pulling this far out. I understand, but let's maybe like so the conversation if by using, maybe not bite in, but it seems like you would be wearing liberalism had had pulling right now with tax, is yet to be very careful because the universe of like all Texas, alt spercheius text such registered voters versus likely voters are due things and it really is about like. If everyone turns out in Texas, then it looks like it I'll stay right here more traditional voter turnout. Only then it's a ready, and so I don't know, I we think someone like it come Harris would be more I'm kind of it democratic and it turned out more voters, and I mean she competing more in Texas and probably also Arizona, maybe also Florida right, I mean you get there it's two paths where democratic. If they were to win back these midwestern stay tonight, we count pencil as part of the west for political purposes right and that's it This is why we think that, like come alive, herb, lucre or better

I'm here would be more like a southern strategy, so to speak candidate. I get Yes, I do wonder a little bit in terms of Democrats being able to get, where the line as epicures, where you think you know that the Democratic Party is diverse enough, where it fairly hard to appeal to like many different constituencies that one and so one twentieth team, for example, would finally got or work so close was in what everyone thought it would be in Texas forever, which was the spanish it really was that kind of suburban college educated white voter which, in response to tromp or whatever, swung hard towards Democrats support me methinks are probably any candidate, could trump is still going to be on the ballot in twenty twenty? Any kind of could do relatively well, but putting that, together with the hispanic

is probably what it would take, and I don't know if you have a sense of like wood, which candidate has the best chance of doing that in Texas. That feels hard me yeah better under performed. South Texas, where there's a lot of hispanic voters, and so that shows me that may be his first name? Isn't it because this last name yeah, I mean that's a whole other things are that that's a tough one, that the other thing is that Hispanics have been under funded in terms of like how campaign spend their money, they don't get talk to direct we are well, campaigns tend to be very white, so they don't know how to reach how in a really effective way. So I dont think anyone knows how to do this well and also it's a lot of money to grow and electorate or to change an electorate in Texas because registering, but we have very low voter participation, very low voter registration and registering voters here is really expensive. This is not a place,

We have all nine voter registration and automatic registration. You gotta have a stamp some incomes on paper and it takes a lot of time and money, and you know rules about like who can read their voters are really strict here too, it's not easy, so I don't think anyone has properly funded in two jointly funded a vote. I get out the vote campaign among Latinos this day or in most of the countries. So I mean who's, I would add that I don't know I haven't seen evidence of anyone being a really good at that, and I know that sounds kind of a well. You know what Florida had some pretty good examples. I was you like Rick Sky you run a republican one. There had like a dedicated campaign. You know a good example made. But be John Cournand. Twenty fourteen had a dedicated and he won the hispanic, though Republican in Texas

there has been a go and twenty forty and like we're on the ground like what does the outreach look like we ve talked a little bit about well, has been a community's there's lots of different reasons for why their less politically but look. What does that mean like when John Corner was really good at having hispanic outreach? Oh, he had and its language add like I'm, not saying that, like the Marquis like how people should reach out to spend voters, but he tried, but it is more than like a lot of Republican doing now from what I can tell course, Right now I know groups are. There are like several groups that have started beefing up and asking for money and and setting to work on, registering voters. Taxes is so big that it's hard to know what that's a drop in the bucket right now I see this is part of why I think it could be a battleground is like so much of this low hanging. Fruit hasn't been even attempted to yet that if, if and so much excitement has been generating a democratic right by tromp that but couldn't was not Hillary Clinton argument in Arizona.

Can close in Arizona sure, but people thought it would be. People thought Miss Bankes would be the turn out to be so much higher because tramples on the ballot. Now. Maybe four years of Trump makes Hispanics tat much more to turn out, but they that wasn't necessarily like their predictions dinner surly come true. That chump would agitate people. I think Don't I especially given twenty eighteen is definitely like it in its way. Like a swing state and like a core swings day like one of the five or six most important, excess has a lot of electoral boats, somebody is it like thirty, six or something or thirty, eight, it's private, Think a mix right, I mean look. I think the perfect Canada protects Arizona, perfect Democrat would be everything else is Arizona state because of White College educative origin because of the Tina voters. I think a mix right and we look, I think, Can it protects areas? Arizona, perfect Democrat would be like moderate blacker, hispanic Democrat.

There are a lot of those right, but in theory, if you kind of constructing candidate in a lab that can, it could do very well potentially, but there someone electoral boats here, that's kind of lumpy, the math of all of it and at some point in less becomes a purple state Democrats have a lot of problems because like if the vote gets more more rural. So when they have done is like it lets say that everything was purely determined by urban versus rural status and that we have fairly sophisticated ways. It s name. What's rural, what's urban! it's not just the way the sense of euro does it. If you do that, excess comes out as a state that should be purple. Or maybe even though the blue leaning, and so if you have more and more of a situation where Democrats too will in cities- and you're density suburbs. Everyone can see well in rural areas and lower density, ex herbs and suburbs than death It's really need taxes to make up for the fact that they're not gonna, win alive in the upper midway.

Can not gonna win Wisconsin in Minnesota, as often that scenario they're not gonna win main and I'm sure as often under that scenario and Youtube you kind of need Texas for the math Where can you let your college or Democrats? Ok, so that brings us to question to start wrapping up on which, as we heard from the Democratic Party of taxes and the DE triple see that they are focusing on taxes and twenty twenty, they think that six, how seats They can flip. You know they're, putting resources, of course, into the Senate race and they're talking about it battleground state in twenty twenty, the presidential level at least that's what the party is talking about. Now, of course, they're gonna, say we're leading the fight, no matter why we have yet to see how many resources they actually put into the state, etc, etc. But is that a good strategy if Democrats were to go all and on taxes in twenty twenty? Put that be a mistake? What's with you actually

oh because, unlike I guess, a lot of other states we talked about like this- is a very young populate linked what population comparatively so this is always you're, better investment right now. The hispanic population, like a third of it, is under eighteen, but they won't always be I, like, I don't know in terms of long term planning and no politics and like that, it's all about the kind of short term gains by going all in at say, like go pretty hard and fix it like maybe don't put all your eggs in that basket, and also there are a lot of flipper policies are being for. The data see that's a different question there. Our seas are going to be pretty flip of all here and I think here in the ordinary than that of the six three, in this area that their targeting you know that have to defend all Red and Fletcher seats. That's gonna be already kind of hard, but there a lot of opportunities. Yard say why not sure yeah I just to endorse Ashley's comment. I mean, from a house perspective from a deep, triple see perspective Democrats picked off most of the low and medium hanging fruit last year,

and the one place where they kind of might have been scratch on their heads and like oh, could we have one two or three more seats with more investment was here in Texas World, seeds that we're not expected to be compared. Wound being kind of clothes I will hurt see which at one time by fifteen points right well being. Where was it like? A one point raise so in there a race to next year? So you think that people see, would be urging them. Rats allied to kill in here and compete here I mean look. I agree with mica that, like you're, probably gonna, see for various reasons, including during an immediate narrative. You gonna see probably democratic, claiming in June and July and August a they swing. Stay in they'll be some like people, if all that comes out but has a nominee, you know one point behind Trump. We'll get excited and then It will realise that ok asked herbaceous back and forth at the time. When promptly soon simply well, but Texas faded

background, a little bit and then, when he's in trouble, then it becomes more competitive and people realize, like old, gradually trying to pool resources out. That's like the modal scenario, I think, but for lots of reasons, including the Congress and the long term you probably have to start out making summit, spent here, but I think the lesson from twenty sixteen. We all agree with them. Like a fearless from review, which is one of the reasons why we talked about Trump was surprises because he he maiden and made plays in places where people laughed at him for making investments and making plays, but in the end it got him. The presidency and its surprised him everyone else but like I think that I think it is a really interesting lesson of politics which is, like you know, convent

wisdom can kill. You know, and I think that that's so the idea that you would invest in places at our. Naturally, your constituency is smart, so I go. We have plenty of examples for why it is a good investment for Democrats, good strategy to go hard and taxes can actually ask the reverse question to wrap things up here. Watch Republicans due to stem their losses in taxes. What would give republican strategy to counter it worth? I mean it's, it's both easy and hard. It's easy and a sense of its, not a mystery Republicans in Texas used to do much better with non white voters and with college educated voters. Think of the United Nations have your Bush and what did he do he like

out, reach efforts and did speeches in Spanish in English and did like really to actually point like really basic stuff now, even if they did that now, actually didn't the government or didn't abbot abbot did some of that to a little bit in the end twenty eight in and so it so that kind of basic stuff I do think, makes a difference while it's happening under the umbrella of tromp, I don't think it's gonna. Do them much good, but yeah! Look! I nothing in politics is permanent. If I were, you know a republican operative in my mid twenties right now. Thinking about the next several decades, I would be thinking about how to how do we get back allied with non white voters in Texas and college educated voters and taxes

and don't say racists things, nobody that sounded flip. But, like honestly, I didn't really mean implicitly, like you know, just some basic stuff. I think go a long way and then there are the as as I'm an eye. She don't know a ton about habit, but there is. There is some ideological diversity in innovation can parties have maybe just lean into that a little bit. The idea like what you do if you're young Republican, scratches strategists is a really interesting question, and I do actually think that there's a lot of open road for both Democrats and Republicans, but perhaps particular Republicans, to answer the questions of we face a changing economy with automation. Republicans are going to provide some sort of ants, because we are the Party of Business and we want to help american innovation like. I think that there is a lot of roads go down that way. Young p or maybe traditionally republican but are theirs.

Constituency of libertarians who younger people like that. Is that as a streak that I think is growing and american life, and I think if you are a government in strategists like those are interesting roads to pursue, but you would have to say that, like the part, the Republican Party itself would have to change from the party of Tromp, which it is right. Now it's not it's not Mitt Romney republican Party right now, but there are, I think, people who were certainly hiding a little bit in the background, because it is currently the party of Tromp and I don't want to make waves and just a point clear made a few weeks ago. You know it does feel a little bit about a little bit like between college educate voters, swinging laughed and though

You know about people start to make investments there. That's overwhelmingly democratic media has, as you know, engagement among Texas within a starts to increase. It does feel a little bit like this is sort of inevitable and Democrats need this in terms of the electoral college, but, like those are two groups that that don't necessarily this is a point clear made that don't necessarily have all that much in common in terms of where they live in terms of their interests and so Republican in Texas darling. Are you ok right now, but there's like a fair amount of room for manoeuvre and I'll just cause? I saying like Texas Republican like strategies, at least don't even agree on whether they should care about like hispanic voters in the future. Right now there are winning white voters so handedly in like look at the last election like yeah, but over came close, but he still less. So Over there I, where we are going to leave it there, thank you, Sir,

Ashley random about our eye, and now it is time for a little fun. We're gonna play around of trivial, but before we do not, let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by zipper quarter. Used to be hard, multiple job side, stacks of Razumihin, confusing review process, but today and can be easy and you only have to go to one place to get it done: zip, recruiter, dot, com, slash, five, three, eight zip recruiter, send your job to over one hundred of the webs leading job words, but they don't stop there with their powerful matching technology, zipper critter scans. Three: Dozens of residents to find people with the right experience and invites them reply to your job as applications come in. Recruiter analyzes each one and spotlights the talk candidates. So you never miss a great match. Zip recruiter is so effective that four out of five employers What was done, zip recruiter, get equality candidate through the site within the first day and right now. Listen.

Can transmit recruiter for free at this web address its zipper, critter dot com, slash, five: three: eight: that's zip recruiter, dot com, slash five, three, eight, the numbers, not the letters zippered or the smartest way too. Great job jail with those round of applause. Even read that is his great bubble. That's easy! I try to live now it's hard, although I am jobs that I didn't get the same windbreaker you guys got I'll get to maybe with somebody can glass them. Thank you. Can I just make a shadow that someone is wearing a decision desk up in the front row which shut out together. That's great, commissioner, you know it's our crowd when, when you see those teeth sergeant, I want it all right now, autism, trivia,

complex are the twenty twenty primary and Texas it's a mix, so I hope everyone picked up as much Texas political knowledge as possible over the past couple days. And, as I mentioned earlier, the audience is going to play with us. So here's how this will work. I will ask Nate Claire or Micah a trivia question. If they got it right, they got a point. If they don't get it right, the audience has a chance to steal listen closely because the first person to shout out the answer is the person who gives the answer for the entire audience So unless you really know the answer, maybe don't say, this programme was never like a babysitter camp counselor. You gotta together. One answer one answer: so, let's begin with the first question to name just got on the line according to first quarter, Effie reports, which presidential candidate rays,

the largest per cent of their cash from small donors, and that is to hunt Otherwise If we were to make me actually name all the candidates, which I think I could do, but not totally sure, that's a good one, maybe I'll out that actually it was Bernie Sanders right, alright audience. So far, the audience is winning. One two: zero, zero, zero and yes, was Andrew Yang. Eighty one percent of his donations came from small donors for Bernie Sanders. Who was? Second, it was seventy four percent, so congratulations Array Clare when was the last time Texas went for a democratic and a presidential election don't whispered. We can

nineteen, sixteen nineteen, seventy two. That is our aim, our aim and that it was a bad idea. Let them play is audience to nay, closer magazine, let's see if mica can put on them, Lord four out of five thirty, eight Jesus, according to the Nevada Independent, which twenty twenty candidate has made the most trips to Nevada. I'm gonna say. Collusion

if they come off verse them. So I have no idea how both of us before we The audience gets to the opportunity now clear, really was it all the strategy that's right. The audience has three point. I thought it would hesitate to obvious so that is women encounter with seven visit. How many round to this other You know we were like six more questions like tomorrow. So we ve been mathematical, eliminated Maybe maybe they'll have to combine working announcements that guy that's ok, so last minute

and in order to meet this need, how many times in the? U S, history: has a presidential nominee come from Texas. That's not president, that's nominee and how many times people, so we can talk now right, we're a team and twice well just count, dysentery, both bushes. I think they, count count. It was operating on the ballot wiser. Just once you guys all pay money for this year. He wouldn't you wouldn't there is. Nobody here was only on the ballot was ok, that's five. Forgetting someone weird lasers, it since a certain day, ever since the Texas, Ok, when the Texas, after eighteen, some something

a lot of western the audiences colluding with ivy, so we're we're unified five right. Ok, waiting during Ding Ding, Ding Ding, so now it's audience three. Five. Thirty eight one come back Major pardon he's a major party,

lemme back on the path we did? An audio documentary on Ross Browser check it out to a great document will give producers according to five thirty, its official counters? Well, so it's not just me who would be wrong. It would be five. Thirty, eight already major party nominees, all right. Nuclear he got up and down welcome or I guess declare, but also to everybody again. Yet the according five. Thirty eight endorsement tracker, which democratic presidential candidate has the most valuable endorsement so far single. So most valuable endorsement because These are unfamiliar with our endorsement tracker. Different people get different scores based on how prominent they are within the party. I think

Warren with that pass nominee whose personnel many because do Dukakis, yeah. You participatory mandate was passed by its president and endorse club, which are so, which is more, which I came up with this scheme would make it more than you think I would know I'm pretty sure that model worth more than Dukakis so closer, ding Ding Ding Ding Day, Amy globally, is in first read. Walter models in tourism, which is worth ten points, Biden, Bucker and Harris are tied for I, with endorsements from the governors of their states and that's worth eight points the Mondeo doors meant really is a game changer create, I know really even count seem like he's worth as much as Obama former vice president, Aren't you my girls are again everybody team. Like

when was the last time. Travis county, the home of Austin Texas, voted for a Republican for President We think it would have to be heard you think not Bush or for Bush, and that's what I thought. That's a pretty low everybody's, don't tell them the answer. I don't know this month so that I would I mean a sort of the most obvious, I think I do thousand for ok audience. Eighty four years you're wrong. I worked in transparent, come guys, although all it those places like everyone's newcomers are none of these people were the county voted republican and it was only in two thousand to your clock. So George W Bush, one in two thousand and two thousand

for he was the county by fourteen points, gangs. What happened change? I guess the war in Iraq. We could get into that one it is a point. It is still audience three, five, thirty eight to now. Ok, There's another one. Another texts, one back tonight according to taxes, is eaten. Forty five annexation agreement with the United States. It is allowed. Divide itself into up to how many different states five come. What that was. So I didn't. I didn't now needs a freak. Everybody knows that don't know Now it's a tie and getting we only have Lastly, let us make it take it so there's a tricky one. We'll see how well you know your own website so throughout

Primary so far we ve been writing pieces that describe each contenders path to the nomination, the democratic nomination. Inside of it, but which candidates article about air path to the nomination was read by the IMF, two people so far put attached a good man of ever know. It's it's it's the binding Monday, really well or sea, endures, or it's like one. So I've been Harris. I bet it Sanders who was right before Harris Warren. I think it's either. I think it's Warren Sanders or Biden. Now! Just now you given them actually don't know. I think it's like a teach answering a right. If we get a wrong, I think it's sanders.

It's probably Harrison we Harris stories which then be one you I didn't write three aeroplane arrived in Ireland by Ding Ding ding ding. What a comeback we invited you to ourselves that we could be it's a bit like we re going to us in overtime. Wouldn t never actually gets possession of the ball. It's like a little rigged, but little that question could not have been more. You guys would have no chance of well. That is a raft for trivial. Congratulations to you guys, beating the audience, sat at the pearl that really managed to turn this audience against us. Really, that's a rap for today's plot unique! Thank you guys

you Clare, I think you might. I need you to be the same again. You wanna come see as in Houston on Wednesday, had over two five thirty dot com its last live. My name is doing droop especial thanks to Vanessa Diaz, our manager of business operations who organised show and that you too, as well Stephanie Ruth James Pierce and Amber gardener and again and you'd actually Lopez. You can get in touch. My emailing us podcast that five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave us, a rating review in the apple pie can store or just tells them. What about the show? Thanks for this,

and we will see you in Houston.