Are you ready to solve everyone's anxieties about Poland? Yeah awesome hello and welcome to the five thirty politics podcast, I'm Galen droop. I need silver and is my lot alike need its are first post election model. Talk this may be our last model talk for awhile, maybe we'll talk about Georgia. Maybe we'll have future model talk, episodes to further unpack the poles once we get more data. you know: where are you in the recovery process, you know yes, they started to feel more, like coastal Action Othello Board. Yesterday, after the live there right, oh

whatever other feelings you have during the election. You rarely feel boredom and yourself up little bored. I don't think I've had not yet, but I look forward to the point in time

where I will feel board. Nothing will make you more board their reading discussion of what network Trump will form after and nothing could be more boarding. That topic I, like many people, are talking about media gossip but live literally just like put me to sleep, ok! Well, then, let's get into something perhaps more substantial or at least more relevant to what we came here to do. As of our taping, it looks, like Republicans, have fifty seats in the Senate, while Democrats have forty eight seats, meaning that the two Georgia runoff elections will decide control of the Senate. Of course, Joe Biden has won the election. It looks like his national popular vote margin will be somewhere between foreign five points. That's a bit off from where, of course, the pulling average had him before the election, which was about eight and a half points, and then, when it comes to the house, while poles reporting

the direction of Democrats. Picking up some seeds, it works like they'll, do somewhere between six and nine seats, but retain their majority overall in the chamber. So we had a lot to talk about here. We can talk about Paul, laying we talk about modelling and alive. Different people have shared their takes on a polling. So far in this cycle, sums can ask you broadly nay, how do you think pulls dead in twenty twenty? There? Ok, if you end up with the fear for plant pulling year for the presidency and nationals and in case wings days a mean, the simple fact is that poles miss on average by about three points. So for three and a half before, then that's pretty normal. I mean there's a careful balance, a strike. If the polling industry said okay, well, three or four points no big deal. You know I just keep do we're doing.

They're, not sorry that you have whatever problems they had this year, plus on top of that new problems, then falls might get really really far off right. So if I were a pollster than I'd say we have to look at what happened here. Why weren't? We exactly in the mark. as someone who analyzes poles and models the uncertainty. This was very normal. It's very common, its really like we're right when I even on the edge of the distribution, I would not say. Oh my gosh what'll happen whatsoever. twenty years right noses like very much in the thick part of the distribution, I think part of wet pollsters do. Is they again if you read the story of how thirty right now means very sympathetic to the difficulties of doing hauling? I think it's a communication strategy they sometimes want to make it seem, like their instruments, are a more exact than they really are practised. In fact, there are many things that make pulling difficult, and so you just hope to get close and they usually do get close, including this year. For the most part I mean some central,

in others, but it like a with feathers from it- was seen now we ve fixed it, I think they did fix the problem education waiting. Now you have the correct parent population, that's not how educated, but there are a whole bunch of new problems crop up that you didn't necessarily to speed ahead of time, some of which may be permanent and which may be temporarily They relate to Kuwait or Trumpery male loading or whatever else yeah. I first of all, obviously rather do into her the story right in the grass chemist action the pulling a was not Bad b is like a fifteenth, most important story, and so the fact that, like a big thing about the Poles in intellectual, more or less directly. The outcome right, not great asset but like at some point. we'll just like to beat up on poles of upholstered. I think we're like too willing again I'm animals to forge a like fall their swords. Lego. Woe is me, woe is me we ve now it's like a second you can't let other people define the questions. Racket

the people. I define the term yeah. Ok, that's totally fine, but first of all we're here to cover appalling and there's tons of other things regarding this election that we'll talk about another package that we have already talked about and that other formats will cover. But I think the question here is there was under estimating of Trump support in two thousand sixteen. There is probably an even bigger underestimation of trump support in this election, and so people are curious if there is something that has to do with the way the poles are conducted. The way that trumps support is structured. That means that pulls aren't doing a very good job of capturing his support, and I think that's a question that posters are trying to answer. I went characterize, it is people falling on their swords are just say.

more curious, because if they have a sense that there's something wrong with the methodology that they're using all the instruments that they have to gauge public opinion, they want to get it right, and so I think this can be. It like an honest and open and curious conversation. Do you right now have a sense of why poles might be under estimating trumps support beyond just educational waiting? I think their lives and their is first of all. I think a problem this year is that they actually underestimated

whoever is Congress by more than trunk, which might still you away. So the one thing that I think is least persuasive is one form of shy trump voter theory, where voters are failing to express their preferences because they are afraid of it socially acceptable, said his support. Tromp right, you know when Susan Collins Beats repulsed by a lot more than try by, I dont think is socially unacceptable, say that you support using Collins in very moderate establishment republican ranks of theory that I would say, throw it out, but, like is less credible. Let me look one theory that I think is relatively persuasive. Is that, like it's just hard, we get certain half the people on the phone, but for social trust is use, meaning that people who trust in institutions less trust the media. Last because people s report are kind of freaks like I've, only eight or ten percent of people answer poles are kind of free. Give you take fifty minutes. Please do it. I guess, if you're out there in her ear, but like maybe

people who are less trusting like a stranger calling them are less likely to answer the phone and they're are also more likely to vote for Trump pelicans too. There is a correlation between you know, lower social trust and voting for true, and you are also now entering the phone- is much. Then that can be hard to wait. Don't ya identity! Your way out of I think ripples is. There are counter balance there, where people who are more likely to vote for Democrats are more likely to trust the media were be enthusiastic. Responding to pause and voting more for Democrats? Yes, the flip side of really right. It's maybe nodded shy trump voter. But a gregarious excited Biden voter where This appears to people are at home during the pandemic. We have more time to answer poles they're out as much they'll. Take a phone com are often so like in these states like

South Carolina, where looks like once again to consider would be his poles right at state where, like Democrats, we're way more enthusiastic, but they just start no Democrats to elect a Democratic South Carolina most years as you really lopsided turn out. So maybe it's been a Democrat, your very charged up and they were answering poles at unusually high rate suppose it reiterated usually low rates or could be the two together right, written kind of intent on thirteen? May you that in twenty eight team, the Poles works dreamily good witch? A is kind of a prophecy of his demise of polling, narrative and B. That was a year where you could have had by at most measures equal enthusiasm on both sides. So maybe in a year like that, then our problem in things like enthusiasm, people always like. Well, you know the poles. but the Sizemore enthusiastic, so they might do better. International sets more enthusiastic, often under performed its poles, because people are more like an answer bulls in twenty dwellers.

debate about, like are the Romney voters, more enthusiastic and the amount of voters what I wanna be his balls by a fair amount in twenty twelve. So maybe you wanted hedge against before enthusiastic supporters, who are more lively, answer surveys, so that could be some issues in who is our actually responding to pause and, what's important here we talk about waiting by education right. This is a little bit different in the sense that are the Non College educated white people that your reaching on the phone representative of the broader population of non college, educated white people, and if they aren't, you can wait as much as you want, but you're not going to stick the problem. So that's what we're talking about their in terms of its mattering who responds to poles, I'm not! She can't fix the problem, shifted, probably use fancier. Statistics are not yours.

And saw the bull, oh now, that it's unsolvable, but waiting alone, doesn't necessarily fix the problem bright. If the population of nine college educated white voters that you're reaching in a pool you just more likely to support bite and then the Non College educated voters who were out in the broader public, because waiting just makes that sample that you reach on the phone a large chunk of the ultimate poor result, but do you want to go further in tonight in terms of what kind of statistical methods you think might be able to address? The problem, it's a little hard disk if you like coming mutations are inversely could like wait for different things. If it's still trust- and you can ask questions like it's a little rude to ask him in this neighborhood, like how many friends do you have if you find it, a population that your surveying has morsels connections and the actual America population on the whole there- and you can wait for that- you can ask things-

how many rallies have you gone to how much we participated by donating money right and if it turns out, as most poles find that people are way or participate in these activities? Worse, palestinian Amerika population than you can also wait for that to people who have lost his patient? We then we're heavily. So I think there are ways around it requires and creativity and ask you a few more questions you may have before, but yeah I mean as part of the problem care, also just that if leadership within the Republican Party or Trump in particular trashes Paul's than that candidates, supporters just won't be interested in binding. Two poles period ends there as part of the equation, just I guess trying to get the broader public trust, poles or care about bowls. Maybe I don't do that seems pretty conjectural anyway, we didn't have any problems and twenty eighteen mid term, so they're gonna be interesting. Look if like do polls that the tribute themselves so big NEWS Organization abc the New York Times when they do worse

because it's worth testing, I suppose there and again we mention, has multiple times, but we are still waiting for better exit, pull data and verified voter surveys, and things like that, I had supposed are like the apex of Poland. The innocent people, like dont, really tell us in story about what happens in motion, which can we be problem yeah yeah always people who were like, on the one hand like loopholes or dead like oh well, you never crossed out of college. Get about women in Nebraska from, for example, has all types of issues I mean, but I think what am I special powers? Who is that I can distinguish good faith First is bad faith attacks and I think poles five three out of it, but suddenly the poles from

there are a lot of bad faith actors that come into play when it is never too late to criticise pole were objective political methods. You can tell him the benefit actors were because they were the ones who were very quick on Wednesday morning to give their stories of about the poles have failed when, like actually many states are gonna, turn out to be right. That, based on the blue, shift work going for drivers of Wednesday morning at midnight, but, like eventually, would pensive annual consummate Georgia, those or so, people that were in quickly with their takes that usually cited of bad faith, and so, on the one hand, its support and, in our view, is very curious about this, but there is a degree of like very impossible expectations where people are supposed to be exactly right. Now is even right enough to get the winner right. You have to be like exactly right on the margin now do what

fair enough it like that. There's a lot of bad faith. Criticism over I bit what people are reacting to more is yes, I got the winter quarters quote right on the presidential level, but doesn't seem too has necessarily on the Senate I love you, I didn't do it right in our motherly tulips. It's in the house. We saw congressional district pulling their reciting pretty ANA whack. I alluded to much, but in the Senate there only to us that so far, and those are pretty mile upsets tell Us- is like it too, don't under God, and we barely had Gideon favoured in May. Now. That is balanced and fundamentals with the poles of the poles and cells may have caused a slightly heavier underdog, but we're not talking like necessarily there being major upset, suggests that any close election oftentimes atossa break in one direction and ask what happened in the Senate part of wagons to Galen is that, like one of those years, hopefully after of

hung up my polling, spikes and doing something else, and I'm at some exotic resort playing poker eating sushi there's something right humbly friends I gotta know you're taking a whole five that team with you when you go to your exotic resort, to play on an earnest places. Yet what do you use would have like a second point, pulling heirs of thing right, but we're kind of still winding up in the thick, partly probabilities provision and people like freaking out. It's like I'm like one party when most to toss it was really normal. It's like what normally happens in light of three or four people here is normal If you think this year, there's an unacceptable degree of error in polling, then don't look at a polling because you're going to have this happen all the time. That's happened all the time in the past. In fact, if it's worse and better but like you think, is unacceptable, you got no information out of the polls even told you was going to win the election. Then

the newly people's Amer, because you're not gonna, have like you're, not gonna fix problems where their magically super precise every year they may have a pretty good year at the time and then a core the time they miss way off, wonder ethnic autonomous. We have in the direction of linkage between what is part of this may be false expectations of how accurate the poles are based, on the arts and met arts, essentially like the average pulling error. If you go back to the nineties, I think we ve worked out for the national pulling air is somewhere in the range of two to three points. Whereas if you include more data, then it gets quite a bit bigger and, of course, the pulling era. this election, all the national level, was somewhere in the range of four points, and so that Really. There was a large appalling era this year. If you compare it to just recent data that fair. I guess, although there is a failure at what is exceeded, twenty twelve actually be replanted. People rely

Yeah, I can go back and look all the way back to nineteen thirty six, which is going to what we do then its look. How soon because, like Pherson use, we only have gallop and because you only have one poor attributable here, they have upholding average. We kind of crunchy. All this numbers figured at like an average players like three point two points or something like that is our estimate. In fact, this year we kind of added a prison because of mail boat, and we thought it was going to be higher. So we the average Araby higher than usual. So that's. Why, like four points, basically and so I mean I've ASEAN honest. We should just open the fourth wall here, right, pirating I feel like boy, you five, eight mounted a really good shot of anticipating the pulling area would be in the weird ways in which its kind of corollary, to some degree, is between different stage. So it's like if your job is estimating polio, Then I feel I can be a lot of good decisions right, including one decision being.

we are calibrating off this longer history, the poles and not just off more recent data and its based on my view that pulling is difficult in this epoch My view that one response rates go down, you're going to have more issues. Despite that, you could have a fair amount of confidence that bibles going to win cuz. She have a pretty big screw. Combined with Superman ahead here he had a pretty big threw up. Maybe actually trying to attach below? I mean it's kind of because there are these statements here, we like half a point or a point, but there are several stay: where he went by the new society was pyramid is Wednesday. You'd have to like have lost. Three of these four states was kind of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, but I'm not sure Pennsylvania, walk into being that super cool these provisions are coming and pretty strongly provided that notwithstanding, so it's a little bit weird say like exactly upload selection was there was a necklace and popular vote is that that close electoral college margin is closely tipping. Point stated that there is more than one

state a tipping point, so you mentioned earlier on that the covered pandemic could have some effect on the accuracy of the poles and, if you think about what different in twenty twenty compared with twenty eighteen, when the poles were pretty accurate course, the pandemic is one of those things If you look at one state that is in the midst of a really bad outbreak was constant, that's one of the states were pulling was least accurate off by a somewhere in the range of seven or eight points. Any credence to that and what exactly about covert would make pulling less accurate, so they're a couple of things one could be covered, has Chris differentials and who is physically at home or inefficient, where their able to respond to pull so here's one stereo typewriters Democrats, our knowledge workers who can work from home and Democrats are more careful about what activities do under cove it. Therefore, it's easy reach. Democrat,

the phone, the Republican who may be out and into a restaurant or may have a working class job where they are not allowed to do it from hope that could be a big issue. Another issue connected with male voting, where a some votes get spoiled or lost in the males done a huge amount, if you have like say a one percent oh it's well rate and one percent loss rate and those that are caused by male. Then maybe you have issues they can cause challenges. More likely voter screens, because maybe if you count all these people who voted early, a good at what you should then. Maybe you kind and exclude simple: it's gonna turn out. Day, you'll feel better monitoring it screwed up so their various challenges with respect to go of it yet, and I should say that pollsters did say that once the covert pandemic head, they were having higher response rate, so it did seem like they were. Having more luck, reaching people once people started working from home were spending less time doing whatever

I'd have recreational activities they might do in non covert times. So there is some evidence that actually lens credence to the idea that we did change the polls in some way you mentioned turn out and covered. Maybe one reason that turnout models could have been off bite. Republican Turner was massive in this election, just like democratic turnout was. What can we say at this point about turn out models and how real turn out compares with what kinds of expectations going into the election, so tuna is very in line with you know her. They showing that tuna is going away to being a hundred and fifty eight million, maybe like exactly number that our final forecasts predict exactly fifty cents. There's something I mean one issue actually like poles could be more explicit. I think about kind of what turns out. They expect that might be used for east acting

hundred forty million two hundred sixty million two hundred eighty million her words and a little bit as transparent as it could be, the I wonder, a lot about lower propensity evening, less boat, history, hispanic voters and maybe also blackened asian voters, where we know that Hispanics that have turned out in the past you elections are mostly voting Democrat. You know seventy percent or whatever, but unlike some counties in south taxes, which are ninety five percent, his vanity of huge booms and turn out and almost all those voters seem to go to Trump after this about switching It is not just a matter of turn out. So if you have a pool of hispanic voters, black voters, asian voters and haven't always voted that, aren't nearly Israel the democratic as the ones that have a neutral reaching, never the phone, then you can have problems because you might say: okay, well, Tartu, reach Hispanics but we'll be suspended.

There are few there we're gonna see with what the voters, for example, voted before right and then you can have you using this kind of non, represent a sample of Hispanics and blackened asian voters, troops of the entire population, and I can be a problem in the fact that pulsar so focused on the white Working class and not thinking very much about non white voters. Voters of color. somebody who has been a source of here in the other direction right, where pulls under its me, how well Democrats, doom and voters of color and under its Me Democrats, but like when it there's a somewhat trying to focus on the working class hispanic working class of Asian Amerika Working Class in these districts in LOS Angeles, California right, then you might have problems. Does it seem like the pulling air was correlated in this election I mean we saw like pulling, was pretty accurate in Minnesota, but then not very accurate and was content. There was very accurate. Georgia and then not very accurate in Florida, and so when you're looking from region to region you to find answers in just looking at geography to explore.

pulling air yeah by like reform to his balls and one Georgia, probably whereas underperformed in Florida, unless Florida that's actually pretty normal, though, and maybe there's a discourse when five thirty eight smiling on August, we were like. Oh my gosh, all your master too, weird right, your venture to weary. Why are you? The mat were by no Means Georgia, not Florida. Don't you know that there's a uniform swing now such a kind of normal, that you have several different vectors where maybe, on the one hand, poles are underestimating why class support for Trump baby has benefited recipe for Trump? Maybe there are some Kobe effects at some stage in their defence with respect to male voting in some states he kind of when it would like it

patchwork were a world apples underestimate Trump and there may be some regional factors like in the South West in general. Cholera echoed in other areas of the poles were fine California, into whether the poles were mostly fine except in northern may. We have different backers. That create is messy correlations. It's the way. Our model actually works. Twice you wind up with weird maps. Sometimes it's wire model actually gave georgian and hygiene like a forty, five percent chance of being the tipping point statement. Seem Tanner, intuitive two people so yeah I mean it's all very normal, emulate again parted by impatience. Here, I guess is like the thing at least, can return home. Looking at the late night, with the red Ball early warnings and went not for the model is all in all. I felt very prepared for an outcome like this and also the very prepare for now come like. We saw

Twenty six team and we were card to have miles it, describes the plausible universe of things that can happen, and this is not that we are no can really. One question I have about all of this. Looking back is: does this also mean that throughout the Trump presidency, or at least this year, when we were looking at pulling data about trumps approval rating or how Americans viewed the social unrest in american cities over the summer or how Americans viewed trumps response to covert or his handling of the economy? Does that mean that that Poland was also likely off by some figure and under estimating trump in those metrics, as well? Probably actually

one thing I think is not persuasive you. Sometimes your balls, you say well, Horsefaced probably have to estimate turn out, and so we will get the adult population right by the turn out. Models are off. Let me maybe that's like one of like ten explanations: the polling mythic in general. If the horse was pulling his office, we are accountable raking test. The horse was pulling its actual results so that Poland is off you'll, get some passing the other Poland racing. Please don't make that articles which, if not persuasive, unable criticized for it but the Erika

things keep in mind. One is that traditionally digging up taken is preparing for the end of the race, which is a little weird. I don't know why it has taken a people and not enough take for him in the horse. Races, interesting, leaving airs it placeholder too, is Trump did appear to clothe somewhat strongly with undecided voters. If you look at a people cast their export or the Edison example Trump one late designers by a fairly healthy margin. Now it's not very many people in my belief, option electorate, but that is worthy of you. Do the math half a point, maybe point we're like half a point to trumpet The air is three to have points. We can explain half of it with undecided breaking a trump. Your three more points to explain, but their baby was a bit of a shift in the Senate races. I think you actually did not. Does much Poli in states, like name in South Carolina in Montana, in this fishing the campaign.

so maybe after the Amy Coney bear it confirmation there were some ships from eighty percent? Ok. Well, maybe I think we need flexibility, spines gonna win, so maybe there are some shift that relate in the Senate. That might explain some of the gap there I think potentially, and so I mean, should we put it more pointedly, reconsider our conclusions about the way that covered it shaped Americans, views of trumps presidency or the ways that the racial justice protests and so the unrest in american City, shaped Americans, views of Democrats and Republicans and so on. So whether is appalling air, we have to be kind of open minded about what happened why a Trump Republicans were underestimated. Should we also have that seem open, mindedness? Looking back earlier this year? Thinking about how Americans viewed everything that happened in twenty twenty,

be a major part of the forms of issues that will shared compared to what else right pulling computer like some Red Stevens polymers openly that I would take parliament's five times a sector that is, MRS by fifteen plus one though I just me, and still be off the data, but thinking like oh ok, like maybe Americans, born as eager to take covered precautions over emulating the economy, which is what it originally seemed or maybe Americans are not as supportive of the lives matter movement or as open to bite. In relative hesitancy. To condemn. protesters rioters or whatever. Let's talk about it, If people who are taking more precautions about covered arson at home and therefore more reach for the phone, and I can definitely skew covered poles with its use troubles, are not maybe less so. Maybe some like indefinitely skew codes

poles, as could social desirability by ass. If I had seen his virtue is said which it is right, because, if you're not going out about united protecting yourself, but also making with risk criminal code to others, I mean there's obviously kind of a giant gulf between in people's preferences, about curbing poles, zero kind of pro lockdown and their reveal preferences based on their behaviour. We were kind of like all that only in our bubbles but like getting here is like some gap between the way people are behaving in the way that poles are capturing, but they say it

for outcome, which mean I actually think it would be hypocritical. It could put the fact that you're getting home bodies who hearted backing down and knocking people who were going in doing outdoor dining you're whatever could we say anything similar about support for the black lives matter. Movement. Add Americans reaction to things like Deef on the police etc, which is now becoming a debate within the Democratic Party over whether or not that hurt them in this

I do not quite what that the same bucket anything about combing there's. There is social desire, building questions about their that you're gonna be seen as not being re sister with that and sometimes requests like those. You actually see more of an effect than you do from actual the top of the presidential race is exists for tromp. You can have less reason, support programme by the companies just in a unique category, because it literally, in effect someone's availability to take an interview which you know I mean in theory. If you got protesting, you ve also probably not going to be smaller, founded at a protest, but with call me we're going in profoundly affects people's behaviour, and some people are living like s going to court. Normal people are political locking themselves in, like it's pretty profound, potentially effects on survey. Research are

Well we're gonna get more data, and as we get it well talk more about it and show that with our listeners before we go, I do want to get too some listener questions. But first today's podcast is brought you buy neutral, eighty million men and women in the- U S, experience thinning hair, yet it still not really openly talked about which can make going through. It feel scary or stressful and not just adds to the problem in a time when self CARE, more important than ever every day is an opportunity to skip damaging styling tools and chemicals and focus on better hair growth from within visit, neutral dot com and take their hair wellness quiz for customize product recommendations that put the power to grow. Thicker stronger, a hare in your hands. When you subscribe, you'll receive monthly delivery. Is so you never miss a dose. Shipping is free and you can pause or cancel anytime inclined

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with you by we're gonna answer. Some questions are not necessarily pertaining to the accuracy of pulling per se but more broader question, some about the model etc. So the first question is which they ended up being the tipping point state we don't know yet cause it's close enough. I think it'll, wind of being was constant. Actually, after all, Pennsylvania, probably get up to one point. Five points for by there's an outside chance that whatever us any belts in Georgia are left, could make Georgia the tipping point state, but I think, probably was concerned russian concert Jesse, it's a common aphorism in scientific modeling is quote: all models are wrong, but some are useful. He goes on to say

There has already been some discussion about whether five thirty its election model was right or wrong, and it seems clear that the outcome of the election was within the range of possibilities the model predicted, but is the model useful, considering the range of pulling era seen in recent elections and relatively large range of outcomes, the model showed is plausible? Can the model be precise not to provide meaningful conclusions, questioning our raison d, etc. I think these Those are more necessary than ever. It's always interested. There's polling air people stunted ignored area to cover like lucky years, like in twenty, eight or whatever. It's absolutely necessary to measure and quantify how wrong goals to be robust. Different outcomes, in fact, is a basic story of election. We have said time, and time again is it is a fairly every favorite nodded cinch

But a fairly everyday me, because you can withstand eight when extend south all year or perhaps a bit larger, and he still comes out ahead. This kind of exactly what happens, I think, is very important to quantify pulling air in ways that are rigorous in ways that our empirical and ways are lawful about how the polio can correlate different states or not. I think the worst thing in the world would be like, not least, probabilities. That's what you're knowledge comes in at some value that the models add that poles lack really giving. It would be useful if Paul's, even just listed, arrange a set of an actual number as stupid. No people having to use the fact like I'm tired of all this games been ship around. What are we going to show people of women? We worked very hard to let contractual information and we're rather, people can people in from visualization, so from numbers learn from words to people, learn from stories and narratives and examples like us compare this twin sixteen, but it simply like some point, like a number is phobic of numbers we can't have to like

Stan when there's an impetus inexact, I think people kind of understand that in there, They lies for the most part when you say well get to replace are here how much technical, so few hundred bucks you know no one's going to be like. Oh my gosh, you know you did something exact number I can't handle it anymore. I mean people have to not be so, numbers go back and lie. A lot of hard work is in measuring under which to judge this is poles are relatively more or less uncertain them. We have complicated mathematical things like electoral college. How was the candidates led might be so not, and I would love it is like a couple. Can he pulls anymore? He's gonna go make to my island in play. Poverty sushi, but unfortunately, if that were the user relations, I do our pretty pricking important telephones, understanding a public opinion understanding the uncertainty and the models are. Those are not the only way. Or even the main way, necessarily that we cover the story, governance differently. It is one of the main ways right. It's all part and parcel

The overall coverage plan and like if you starting with those dont, show the problem of the model of the most thing over innovation. The probabilities like, first of all, it just chicken second of all like that's when you actually really do. Could you help us understand it and its hard work to understand how the public understands probabilities its hard work to convey in the right way but fundamentally, like that's the currency that we used to talk about uncertainty. It is with a probability, and if you can talk about that in the discussion, comes completely incoherent and anti intellectual. At some point you- and I will reiterate what you said earlier, which is when people question pullings, usefulness or modeling. Usefulness of what we're trying to really do here is understand what the broader american public thinks and that's a worthwhile gall and so trying to make pulling better is great, saying that we should throw pulling in the trash seems counter to even democratic values

is that what people actually think matters and alternative may be dependent upon the tawny for a week and talk for a bunch of people there, but we're not actually going to get any better of a sense of what Pennsylvanians writ large think if we do that, probably our overall view of what kind of in these things would be much worse than every just conducted a pole and so trying to get it right. Awesome, throw it all in the trash and saying The scientific method and sampling period is dumb seems counter to what a curious open, democratic society. Should want well that some people who were powerful pundits right They don't want to be held accountable. They'll want to be We can go further incorrect opinions, so they were low enough pulling is so I'm because you can never be disprove it I would say to like, although counting Windsor masses is not the best way to very positive one, look at the margin

If you do have pools at call cortical accord. Forty and fifty states right in okay, Alabama Zizi call, but they call you they twelve and fourteen swing states correctly, as clearly quite useful. That clearly, very useful is perfect, no but like to say that, like we're, not useful she was just kind of crazy. I think, and again what's the alternative visitors were cut it. I know trying to build bottles based on fundamental so called if we had not looked pulling in old and I dont know what our model with him sad ripen. it would have been better aid, and probably a fair bit were. Second fundamentals. Are model thought that Trump should.

Tie in the popular vote, which means are fundamentals: Mental probably implicitly, Hydra favoured twenty electoral college. So thank God for appalling to move away from that yeah, and none of this negates the fact that, as journalists writ large, we should be covering policies and Canada, behaviors and ideas, and a lot of other things that have nothing to do with poles, public opinion or modeling, but like as far as possible coverage goes. We think this is the best way to do it. and we still think it's the best way to do it, regardless of criticisms posts, twenty twenty. So if you want to get a little bit more details here, Presidential model is, by the end of the race like a pretty much a pure pulls only model, it really is taking the poles are taken and at face value and nothing. The uncertainty Our congressional models blame pulls more with other indicators, at least the classic intellects versions that we usually but more, and they will all races we're like for the Congress. Those fundamental

helped a lot like our model was never very bullish. Jimmy Harrison Olive groves scare leaving more a bullet in Aragon over fifty percent, so you know I should like model taught stuff. We have this mid term coming at first for the mid term really like the blame that we have a poles and other indicators? One question is hey. Maybe you want to hedge, a bit more presidential forecasts we or blending pulls with other stuff, like you do for Congress that we have. We have for years to think about that issue, but yeah in Restore Congress are poles we're single. Actually, the poles are better for Democrats than other indicators are. Therefore there should be some reason to hedge. So that's interesting. Aren't we got a little side like there because jazzy ass such a big and relevant question to everything we do here, but for a bit of a lighter question from Euro, the question is: why did all the networks call Pennsylvania at the same time, ask

one vote drop. That was only a few thousand fights and of its lighter look. Who was it philosopher who is like a k if you'll have to pick a time and a place to meet in a york? You're, not communication, to meet this person tomorrow? You do it like of the emigrants. Petrol stations, like a focal point actually going out of the only five percent recount margin, kind of became a focal point, at that require margin was half a percent, so basically that one vote drop, DOT, Pennsylvania to half a percent implied in favour, and that's why all the networks called it, but sorry go ahead with the philosophy it look. There is a degree of public perception if you want to call it politics here, cruelly Pennsylvania was cold of all twenty four hours sooner.

I was was called, if not even little before that. Clearly we knew that, like these may, although are going, come in very, very heavily for Biden, and we knew roughly how many mail there were clearly when people ahead in Pennsylvania, the previous night? Then you know it was pretty saved us if you expand his lead. But you know only the nurtures striking. You took balance here, on the one hand, from his making these fantastical an increase, claims on either hand. You don't want to look like you're making. It call is premature based on a system projection. Instead an actual votes being counted. You know it's kind of what they do for others. you don't wanna have even the one in one thousand chance it you're going to being wrong. So it was called. It went in the end. The day was an appropriate time to call it. I would have practical little sooner. If I already a decision. Does he not think there is any doubt about Pennsylvania, other states, Arizona got called too early by Fox and may be done. I think

live to talk about it right but like that was a premature call for sure, because that's what he calls a little bit late, but look like the fourth wall between decision desk and the rest of the media. its status as a once was, and is the reason why these walls exists because of two thousand, when there is kind of a race, the networks to call floor and therefore the election right and they prematurely applauded twice and that's a colossal threw up, and so they re giving the decision. This more independence, I worry about whether are doing but at some point on Saturday morning, problem before that probably midday Friday The main story about the election became. Why has the respect called? Yet if it came about the decision desks, and works and there's no way is there not reading twitter getting messages from, your friends are emails. No way other night understanding. Now that there

and when the call race is itself a story, I don't know if there was coordination between different shots. I assume its role it before it out at some wait. I can't deliberately do not contact my position. Biscuit Amy, so, I would offer me suppose you kind of here things through them Miller, whatnot or through intermediaries, but like I'm, trying to like respect their process but like this, the Pennsylvania was called for a long time. People need an excuse to call it as he's those very slowly in the reconstruction was as good excuses. Any

are at war. I'm just gonna ask a couple more questions here and we did get a lot more listener questions than theirs. So maybe we can not retired model talked quite so soon and continue this as we get more data and keep answering folks his questions, but we did get several questions about incumbency advantage. This one is a little more nuanced, yet ass. A question for the partners is all the talk of how unusual it is. Four incumbent president's to lose reelection justified, considering the rather small or of data points striving after this race ended up being closer than some expected. You remember all. Well, it's really hard to beat incumbent anyway. So yet ass is that good analysis, the great question we in our model. I should go on back to eighteen, eighty to look at how fundamental in coming years,

go at eighteen. Eighty them and can see is maybe not as powerful as it was during part of them twentieth century, the United States, if we assume a point advantage from incumbency or something like that- also like that also increase for Congress Incumbency event, it has been other decline because there you have a lot more data points to measure it. So it is real. The lesson it used to be other industry having come to charge back and one at the end, but you know I'm not sure that incumbency is that powerful, an advantage anymore, which it just means it Joe Biden, can't sleep so easily about getting reelected twenty twenty four if he is to run a twenty four, when everything a note, though, both Obama in twelve intrepid twenty. Lastly terms you hadn't come in on the ballot, be there,

pull! So could there be a pro incumbent pulling error? Maybe because people for the challenger party or more geared up an excited, that's a possibility. The Bosley is there a way to prove or disprove some of the voter fraud. Conspiracy theories that we ve seen using statistical analysis. I haven't seen anything kind of rice, the level of being worse people's time to disprove fitted in origin. Far enough. Just to reiterate, the lot of the litigation is based on nothing which has brought the courts are basically said so far, gonna be believer in light. Be careful that what battles you pack and you can dignify and strikes a difficult when, like like a distressing, did you know if you show more tensions and observation policies by trying to debunk them saudi care. For that I didn't want to.

by the way, though, for the poles and overall it like what the effects of mail voting were, how many ballots were rejected, how many ballots were lost because applications for what the party's tell their voters going forward and it may explain a little bit of holy are actually two. So you know looking at the effects of mail voting, I think is, is worthwhile. I well, we ve been going for a while, so let's leave things there and we can figure I wouldn't want to do this again, maybe before too long, but that's it for now so said: unit figure for entertaining a lot of my questioners, are listeners questions and hopefully they help answer a lot of what's been on people's minds in terms of pulling, and, unfortunately I think you dated twenty six talk. You soon my name is Galen direct Tony charges in the virtual control Room Clare, Gary Curtis, is on audio editing. You can get in touch

I e mailing us at podcast at five: thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, cost store or tells them one about us. Thanks I was using.