Some people would eat cicadas, I think other and whether we, while our yander, like delicacies, others like some, we cut them amid the protein. Luck in sexual saw food insecurity worldwide hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics tied cast Iron Galen drink. I hope everyone had a nice memorial day weekend, the twenty twenty two men terms. about a year and a half away, but the primary are already less than a year away in a dozen states. In the field of care that's lining up to compete for their parties. Nomination is growing in key reasons, handfuls of Grants are dying to replace retiring Republican. Senators in Pennsylvania and North Carolina seem those four Republicans bigger to replace centred around Portman in Ohio. those trying to oust is changing in Wyoming. Today, we're gonna take a look at

some of the most competitive primaries are shaping up. We also have to count em too good or add uses of pulling today, one poor suggesting that Q and on is now as popular as some major religions in the U S were also going to return to one of our favorite uses appalling with some new updates should also mentioned there is currently structure and going on in the apartment? Above me? That's one of the consequences of work from home these days. So if you hear it loud noises throughout this pie, cast I apologize, we will try to keep them to a minimum there. We go in any case here. The need to do all of this are politics, adversary, process and hello. Sarah hanging on all of us is politics: reporter Alex Samuels, hey Alex, adding even and elections analysed Jeffrey Skelly Age Ass, a gallon

so before we dive into any of the topics that I just mentioned, Alex things got a little messy and the legislature of your home state of Texas over the weekend. What happened today the sweeping overhaul and taxes elections in voter access. That was boys from the beginning of the legislative session to pass it had. The backing Republicans and it had sport from the governor, but Democrats of course oppose the bill. But Democrats in Texas outnumbered so on Sunday night, there was about an hour left for the legislature to give final approval to the bill and Democrats staged a walk out which prevented a vote on the legislation before midnight deadline, so they're leaving left the house without the quorum, which requires two thirds of the one hundred and fifty members to be present when taking a vote. So they have this walk out. Of course, Republicans we're. Not

be Gregg, Abbot, even threatened to defined the legislature and to take away members pay if they were going to vote on this bill- and it's very likely lawmakers will be called back for a special session to address this builders. Also, a bail reform bill that failed and, of course, there's redistricting. So I would not be surprised if there's a spell we'll session here in the next few weeks or days were lawmakers- are called back and expected to get this pass. So what happens then? Is it clear that this bill, as it currently stands, is just get a passing, but at a different time do Democrats plan on trying to take it? other actions to prevent it from being passed. Democrats haven't said with their plans for the special session. I think one of the big problems with a bill that was for Sunday was that it was negotiated behind closed doors for weeks, because the House and Senate couldn't agreed on their versions of the bill,

and so when the Senate bill was on the house floor on Sunday, it came back with a series of additional booting rule, changes that weren't part of previous debates on the bill like theirs. provision, including new idea requirements, foreboding by mail and restrictions on Sunday, early voting hours, etc. The Democrats didn't get saying- and I think they wanted to say we're time debating and may be seeing the chamber would spend some time ago. In parts of the bill, but because there was this midnight deadline looming over everyone, there really wasn't time to negotiate it to Republican just wanted to push through the bill, as is Democrats I want that, I think, in a special session, the same bill will likely come back. I don't know if the bills and look under percent worse for Democrats, because I doubt publicans now are really going to want to compromise and negotiate there really

hasn't been any plan laid out by Democrats for what they're going to do in their brought back for a very inevitable special session. Should we will keep our eyes on what happens in Texas? going forward? But for now, let's move on and talk about our to good use or bad use of pulling examples that we have for today and you won't get a choice. there's one more serious and one less serious example for today. Would you like the more or less serious use, appalling. First, less serious fiasco, less serious aside. Ok, I like how your things

so for this year's appalling we're gonna return briefly to the topic of human verses, animal fights, which I know Sarah Jeffrey. We talked about previously on this package. We talked about it at another point on this package as well. This is now spanned, multiple episodes and multiple weeks, but you gotta released a new pull since the last time we discussed it showing how british respondents raided their ability to fight of slew of different animals. So now we can compare Previous poets asked Americans to the british Paul Jeff answer. I know that you are familiar with this Paul Alex. Are you familiar with the american version of this pole scenario. The american version. Yes, ok, Joe, I have not shared this poor with you and advance. Usually I do with these good about users pulling soon get a sense of what the poor dog into For this example, I'm gonna ask you to gas if you think that Brits

We're Americans are more confident in their ability to fight wild animals. Aunt Amy arrogance, the power eight billion worth of net you know, that's where my mind goes Alex, but I also kind of wonder just given, like the regiment Kipling, ask british lifestyle colonialism, like maybe there's some food. Sense of bravado there to somebody said british. I bet they had a stronger sense We have one american One, British Jeffrey, I think I'll go with Americans here. I always have a sense that we have in particular a particular confidence whether earned or not. So I'm gonna go with Americans. Okay, so Americans is the correct answer. The Americans are more confident then Brits when it comes to fighting. Every single animal that they asked about so from a rat to a Grizzly bear Americans are just more confident

when it comes to the middle section. Some of the things that we talked about on this package before, like a goose, a media, size, dog or an Eagle Americans are far more confident than wrist. So when it comes to a goose forty, five percent of Brett said they felt confident in a fight against a goose sixty one percent of Americans, and as we talk because they on this package as well. According to a biologist who wrote into the show, Americans are correct on this one. When it comes to human verses, geese fighting humans will win. Medium sized dog. Thirty, eight percent of Brits felt confident forty nine percent of Americans when it comes to an eagle. It was eighteen percent of Brits and thirty percent of Americans. So that's the answer. I have another question for you guys. Do you think that the gender gap persisted among breadths, so the first time we talked about this is in the context of american men being farmer

confident and are fighting ability against animals than american women get I d sooner, such under gap as well, with british men, more confident, maybe not confident as american men, but confident. I pretty sure that there is a gender gap in voting generally in the United Kingdom as well. So my guess is that there is also a gender gap here, but I read I've grasping at straws here, but gotta, guess that there is still something in the gender gap in this as well go the other way. I think, there's probably less, of a gender gap. Isolate the Brits will probably be completely different from what Americans at here. So maybe there s no gender gap, Sir and Jeff. You said that you figure still gender gap. Do you think the gender gap as larger or smaller I'd have to assume like roughly

the same in the sense of lake I feel like this pool is showing us that, in addition to gender and how we think about animals, inviting there's also something about american exceptionalism at play here as well. But I'm guessing that the gender is gonna, be like somewhat consistent or the fact that you're asking this question must be effective, It has to be larger smaller, so I'm gonna go with smaller, ok, so you and Alex are on the same page. a smaller gender gap, but I do think that there is still one ok. It turns out that the gender gap is significantly larger, so wild british men are about equally, as likely as american men, for example, to say that could be a rat or house cat. It's like seventy six percent of british men. Seventy seven percent of american men there about the same british women

our substantially less likely to say so compared to american women. So fifty seven percent of british women so that they could beat a rat, whereas sixty eight percent of american women and then fifty eight percent of british woman said it could be the cat and sixty four percent of american women. So it turns out the gender gap is significantly larger in the UK, which is the opposite of what you guys thought. So does that mean that the overall lower United Kingdom scoring in terms of the percentage thing they can defeat. An animal is largely due to british women being less likely to say they could, and so our british men more closely with where american men are now so that is a great question. Actually, I was gonna houses in the follow up question, but I think you now probably know the answer. when it comes to things like a lion and Grizzly bear american women

are significantly likely to say that they could be a lion or grizzly bear than british men. So am I Can women are more confident and their ability to fight some of the fiercer wild animals than british men? See the noxious Americans aren't just men, its women. You better put trying to make this serious or draw some kind of lesson from this momentarily. What does this teach you about the two different cultures, this kind of comparative pulling. It is this kind of comparative pulling a good or bad use of pulling like? Can you just take a survey and ask those questions kind of across the globe and then compare them all? You have to do certain things to make the survey more meaningful when you transfer it to a different country. One follow up question. Do we knew that time?

was this given to british respondents after the viral American serving yes, it was who, without some points, are up, but you have to think like how many people are truly online. Being my poor, you gotta pull the asked Americans of vacant fright grizzly bear like what is the likelihood that they reached a British responded who would like seeing the pole and, like being in the twitter conversation, That's fair! That's fair! I feel like it was big and journalism. Twitter people were gabions. Some sure people across the pond saw that better, that's fair yeah. I guess Sarah points out that it's possible that British responded early, so handful of them might have been thinking. At this a little more seriously because they had seen some coverage of the previous pole of Americans. So actually like could I actually really defeat a goose in our Citys, maybe being a little bit less serious about their responses. I liked the comparative aspect. I'm curious, Alex Jeffrey for what you got.

think, but it does seem to underscore you know we talk a lot about american exceptionalism individualism in the. U S, and this poor kinder underscores that too. Extent right. I think so. I mean looking over these answers over the weekend of MRS Connally, really so just like the competence of some people, to be able to fight these animals had on space that American exceptional, I think It is a good use. Appalling in the comparative aspect, is good. a sort of an amusing way to investigate differ this across countries in I'd be curious? If they read this and some other countries, you could get server for comparison. Immediacy pollsters, like Pew Research Centre, doing cross national poles of attitudes in different countries about different issues, to make comparisons, so this is sort of an amusing version of that, but nonetheless says say something about a society and how gender gaps where persist.

I thought that was in her. There was my like suspicion going into this and granted one pool but interesting how that is true of different cultures as well or not. ok. We will leave it there for now for human rights as animal pulling. If you got decides to pull any other countries. Maybe we will come back to this. Let's move on and talk about that you and on pull that I mentioned at the top, but first today's package is brought to you by run on dot com do have a motorcycle atv or even a truck that sitting in your garage that you ve been waiting to sell with rumble on dot com, you can easily turn your unused vehicle into cash in merit. Rumble on dot com will give you a cash offer for your vehicle and pick it up for free anytime anywhere they can even finance or next Harley, Polaris Yamaha and even more,

if you're, just looking to upgrade see what rumble on can do for you by visiting rumble on dot com that are you and be out. E o and dot com fast bikes, faster cash, alright, are second good use or I use pulling question comes from a listener named Jordan. So Jordans, a right up of a public religion, research institute, pull in the New York Times title she went on now as popular in: U S as some major religions pull suggests. This pole asked about agreement with three statements to come to the conclusion that fifteen percent of Americans believe in Cuban on so the first a man was the government, media and financial worlds in the. U S are controlled by a group of Satan worshipping Peter files who run a global child sex trafficking operation. That was the first statement that I asked whether or not people agreement

the second statement, there is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders. Then the third statement that they asked about was because things have gotten so far off track. True, american patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country. Now this is Jordan's. Question Jordan says the New York Times was pretty credulous in its coverage. It seems to me that in recent years many pull questions are viewed through a prism of Trump support and answered by respondents. Accordingly, is that what is happening, here or is there more cuban unbelief slash sympathy out there and then I realized it was. Actually. Jordan is really just asking. Is this a good or bad use of polling so asking respondents about these three statements and then coming to the conclusion that about fifteen percent of Americans believe in Cuba?

on? Is that good pulling? I think in terms of actually figured out what share of the american public actually believes in the queue not conspiracy? This isn't a good use of pulling, and I want to be careful here only nuanced who is a bad user pouring? Yes, I think it's a bad support for determining the percentage of actually believe in the corner. Conspiracy theory, because I think it's important to a dinner fight the thing itself and the fact of the matter is that a lot of other poles have shown a much smaller percentage, Saying something like? I have a favourable view of the tuna conspiracy theory and a lot of people dont even are like unaware. I mean I do understand that, and that is why I want to say is that I do think it's a good Paul in terms of trying to get at these threads form an important part of the conspiracy.

theory and understanding what share Americans might believe in the queue- and I conspiracy theory or might be vulnerable to being sucked in by it. I think that's important, but I think, if you're trying to figure out what percentage of people actually believe in the cuban conspiracy theory, This doesn't necessarily tell you that it just tell us what share might believe, because just me, Someone believes in one particular part of this, or even all three parts of the questions they asked doesn't mean that their like I'm, a follower of tuna and some of them clearly are, but that doesn't mean all the more. I also leaned heavily toward bad, because I don't think any survey studying q and I can really replaced the work. That's needed to know how many q and on members supporters there really are like there's, no formal q and on organisation task people for membership numbers. It's basically an online forum where people can come and go as they please. So I think the pull had good intentions. They think it's bad. This

that we cannot rely on one survey, appalled to provide the entire picture, a public sentiment toward the movement so actually thought it was a good use of polling and here's. Why? So? There have been a number of points. on cue- and I sense before the election and after and it's just for saying you know, a number of poles have shown a drop and support for Cuban on, particularly because a number of things that were supposed to happen haven't right, that's what the overall numbers, the fifteen percent to twenty percent. On some of the three questions they asked with similar to what other poles have said and found, for instance, The American Enterprise Institute also had a pole earlier this year that asked about Q and on without mentioning Q, and on specifically it said. Donald Trump has been secretly fighting a group of child sex traffickers that include prominent Democrats in Hollywood elites in fifteen percent set. That was true, which is kind of similar to what Pierre I found. I hear the critics

since that it's really hard to then derive from this pole here is the body of people in America who believe in Q and on but I think what we see in this parliament we ve seen in previous poles morning- consult had also done a pole earlier this year. That again showed since October where less people believed in two and on, but still like this fifteen percent to twenty percent. More Republicans than Democrats, her independence, its pointing towards think a small minority, but a sizeable one, fifteen percent to twenty percent in pull after pull. Saying hey. I, some aspects of cuban on, and I think some of the quest since two had enough, like Q, drops if you that if you were plugged into the conspiracy, you would know that it was about you and I think the last question

little more vague and I perhaps in quibbles there, but I thought this was a good proxy for understanding. Support for killing on. I think, with Sir says, is fair again. I, like the pole in the questions they asked, but I think the top line take away that fifteen percent of Americans, are you not supporters, and especially the way the headline for the New York Times connects it too, like is pocket There's some major religions. I think fact that someone said Nepal that they believe a certain aspects of Cuban on does not Nessus only mean that they are a supporter and a follower of Cuban on, I think actually showing that is more difficult, and I think people have like a religious fervor early enough. They have certain religious belief, sir, in a blonde certain denominations, or what have you that's a little different than having answered Paul and then trying to say that that makes it comparable to like religious affiliation is kind of a nuance here, where the question

survival in the answers that p r r I got are valuable to understanding baby the potential growth in the potential like Rome of support for q and on end and things that few non advocates and avows. But there's like a connection here, this missing, which is that are all these people. Actually followers appear not in this pole, can't tell you that in that's important, I think for a fully understanding how big or not big Cuban on this, I feel like there could be a world in which a respond dinner, several respondents believe- and maybe one or two of these statements, but they're, not avid supporters of Qanon at large, I mean. Is it only people who answered yes to all three things that they said? Okay, these people are procuring on, or is it like? If you said you supported two out of the

things. What does that mean there? So I can see a world in which people believe in an abstract sense. One of these things could be true, but again aren't necessarily devoted June on powers. I think its interest, like you, both are hitting on this idea. Like are these people dedicated Q, Anon Followers rate MIKE? We can't measure intent in Nepal or the steadfastness of this belief frightened some of it be partisan, cheerleading, I'm primed in such a way that I hear you know do I want the elites Washington, a kind of conservative, leaning sure, yes, that set, though I mean the fact that pull after pause keeping in this, like fifteen percent to twenty percent, finding suggests to me that

can't dismiss this that there is a serious section of the population that is at least sympathetic to what the queue and on conspiracy theory stands for. I think those Jeff was saying to you know that the New York Times headline around it was kind of rough math and the sense of lake roughly a quarter of the country as evangelical worth only corridor support Q and we cannot deny that there is a relationship between those two which will talk about a little bit later, but I do think that colleague conflated it and was a little bit more sensational, but you know in the last year there have been a number of story. Just with the pandemic cow, that's affected. Church people are going to church on line Q

an online phenomenon and it has taken root in christian life, particularly Evangel for christian life in this country, and I think poles or just underscoring that it's not going anywhere. So I want to point out here that the way the veneer times framed this is significantly different, at least at the start, from how the public religion resource the two framed it themselves so again that new times title is Q and on now is popular in: U S, as some major religions pull suggests. pure, I take pains, way out what exactly the questions that they were asking. They do break down people who believe all three versus people who believe just one or two. They basically break down risk and into a cuban unbelievers chewing on doubters and chewing on rejects so keen on doubters might be people who have some

and that one of these might be true and to the point that a lot of you brought up the statement that they asked people whether they agreed with there is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders I mean in some ways. You can see that as. wishful populist thinking that doesn't necessarily apply to cure non conspiracy. There is an you see that there's bipartisan really kind of support for that statement: its twenty eight percent of republican respondents, eighteen percent of independence and fourteen percent of Democrats for a total of twenty percent of Americans, believing that demons and again, I think probably some people would say that storm literal and some people might say that that storm is abstract, but you could have some abstract sense that the p will rise up, there will be a storm elites will be swept out of power, begin summaries could I just be seen as a wish for populist thinking and not really q and on now I did that's till a valid point. It gets the difficulty that

and our actual to be clear that I think I was more critical of the framing of house over the medium covering this than us, so the pull itself. I think the pole is trying to do a lot of poles do which is you're trying to ask people about something without directly asking about it, because if you drive, We ask about it that may affect how they respond. That made the United tell you anything so for instance, took scientist have surveys where they they try to gauge like a voters, racial resentment. But then ask you: are you racism, because someone's twitter As he knows, you ask them questions there. surround the issue, but are not smack dabbled that word ass got other things to try to get it. That's I think, in the same way, this is trying to get at a cure knots. Fort threshold. If you well or something like that, so I think it's a surly about who supports tuna, but who might support here who could support you and I do support things that are related to cure and on so I guess I'd say it's like: it is a good you support for that point and I think to Sears Point: there's like value for money

yeah I mean I saw your same gale and in the sense that the question, particularly the second and the third, the thirds phrasing is that, because things have gone so far off track. True american patriots, may have to resort to violence in order to save our country, that need seemed less q. Specific and more If we glean X Y from the first question, is this kind of indicate what thee willingness or desire for violence is among Q supporters, but even that second questions you were getting there is a shortcoming. Is that a literal storms that is in this coup and on the following three? But it also could be somebody who just unhappy with political elites and that something that's true for publicans who aren't keeps supporters but again, I think I just returned to like the top lines of this pole in terms of the support their finding roughly match what other pollsters affair.

Like you know morning, council did specifically ask about Q and on- and it was, I think, eighteen percent in March, he said, despite what they'd heard, they believe Ex Wincey was cute, and so I just think this is really pointing to a real trend in american culture. Maybe this is a dumb question, but it breaks the respondents down here by partisan affiliation. You know that second statement that I mentioned there is a ten point gap which is the smallest gap amongst the questions that they asked. There's a larger gap for whether or not american patriots may have to resort to violence or that's twenty eight percent of Republicans, thirteen percent of independence, seven percent of Democrats and then the government, media and financial worlds in the. U S are controlled by a group of Satan, worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation. I assume that's the one that most

specifically related to Cuban on that's twenty three percent of Republicans. Fourteen percent of independence. Eight percent of Democrats, the potentially dumb question that I had is: why do we see so many more republicans supporting these statements? We ve talked about conspiracy theories on the past on this package. and in general conspiracy theories are not a partisan issue? Different parties have different conspiracy theories that they may subscribe to the conspiracy theories, our human thing, not really a party based thing. So, what's going on here with the republican support, I mean, I think you can kind of connected to a couple things for one is that we know one group of Americans that is more likely to support this are Evangel Christians and even joke on Christians are more likely to be a Republican. Therefore, you see a larger share of Republicans who who support this, because a big chunk of the party is made up of people who are more likely to believe this sort of thing, and then I think-

also along with that. The fact that Cuba is very tight in two former president Trump and the idea of he's gonna bring this storm. Take down a leads all these various conspiracy theories regarding the president action in twenty twenty and then Some other wild conspiracy theories, like Joe Biden, is like not even real, like there's like somebody impersonating here more that tromp was gonna, become president in March because that used to be the inauguration date back in the day like they're. All these various conspiracy theory is that our seas, but he went on and are very tied Trump and, of course, the Balkans. Her time very tied to drop as we see in ample after Paul are very supportive of the president. So I think those are two clear factors: evangelicals and Trump support, and only evangelical support wanting that stood out to me, and that is that poles have shown it was actually another Pierre. I pull from twenty seventeen. There was asking about discrimination and

You asked who Americans thought were discriminated against and two other religious groups. They looked at or Muslim Americans and in Christian Americans and on the whole, most Americans thought that Muslim Americans were more discriminated against Christians. The exception to that was evangelical Christians and so of part of the republican political strategy. Is this politics of greed and you have a section of the base who thinks that they are persecuted for their religious beliefs, Q, Non inserts religious passages from the Bible all the time and terms of like drops to followers. It makes sense, then, that this held special appeal for as part of the republic and base in the sense that the messages for the true believers

as we see things for what they really are and we have to than fight back. As these true believers, I mean, on top of that, I think the rise of these far right new channels, like news MAX one american use networks, has led to just a massive amount of dissent: mission and in his last year or so in office from, would bring regularly call out fox news for their lack of total fealty to him. So the borders when elsewhere, like these other news networks- and you know- maybe that worked for Trump, but I feel like these networks have helped stoats thee conspiracy theories and others of valid fear of possible future violence, I'm too on powers and others who believe in these statements

The aim is to reach an old point Galen. We know the conspiracy theories and belief in then isn't something that unique to Republicans like Democrats believe and conspiracy theories, to the reason why I think you and on holds special appeal for Republicans. Is this idea of a there's, explicit biblical appeals? Republicans tend to have more they religious base than Democrats and then be building on that there is this idea of persecution and bedded in it and like whiteness tied to that, and I think what we are seeing and saw with the insurrection on January section. I was just it's the proud boys, its cue non supporters, its white nationalists all coming together under one big messy umbrella and instead of things being more defined or lanes. It's all merging into this mess see Ingram.

a suspicious distrust of institutions and cure Non Kenneth fits within that yeah. You know, I'm curious one of the ways that the New York Times framed this as we wrap up here. They said overlaying the sheriff pole. Respondents who expressed belief in its core principles over the country's total population. That's more than thirty million people. Their calculating fifteen

and of the american public is that how we should think of this poor lake? There are thirty million people who believe at least some tenants of she went on and believe that even maybe violence might be necessary in order to ensure the country of what courting quote ales it scant their smarmy textbook answer, but like we can't pull every individual in the country right like what the New York Times sit in that metric isn't wrong to me. Would it be better if they had

urged multiple pulls together that asked about Q and on support. Yes, but you know, as I've said today like this, one does fall in line with where other poles have fallen. On this question, too, extrapolating it out, even though that number sounds really large, I dont think is disingenuous on there and I think we need more research for something that Alex's hitting up at the top of this, which is just like. What does this support? Actually look like how ingrained does it it's one thing to say like I want the elites out of Washington, it's another thing to say I support vial since going in to take out political leaders. I disagree with that said, though. This weekend there was a huge q and on conference in Dallas, Texas and farmers, Pretty adviser, Michael Flynn was calling for a coup, and people attended that

it sounds so fantastical and surreal. I think, given the orbits in which we move daily, but I dont think we can discount this growing animosity and distrust and the U S and how its manifesting in this way in wrapping violence. Gaming. I think you saw on January six. There is an assault on the earth capital by many people who clearly worked like units for his were a part of that were they all units force no, but they certainly form part of it and why the thinks that came out of generous Sixth was all this coverage of chiunagon, especially by lot of mainstream knowledge that maybe had not covered it as much before

because there were all these just very clear connections, and so I think, having seen that happen, generous six, that you can see like the potential danger of this, but also to gather enough people to do that at the U S capital and for there to be fear going forward to the point that they had security. Are they raft of security for awhile afterward and kept up lots of barriers and other things, because there is concern about further problems because of things I q and on? I guess with that in mind, it's like the idea that there are a lot of people out there who might support violence in association. Politics is scary, but also having seen what happened generally six than the aftermath of that makes sense, sadly, yeah the pie about violence was probably the least surprising part of the boulder me just because there have been pulls previously saying that Americans, Republicans and Democrats increasingly

violence is justified if the other side wins the refugees searchers, including we drop, whose eight thousand five eight contributor. He was part of a political op ed last year, and some of the top lines they found were among Americans, you identifies Democrat or in one in three now believe that violence could be justified to advance their parties. Political goals, which will as a substantial increase over the last three years, and they are found in September. Forty four percent of Republicans in forty one percent of Democrats said there would be at least a little just, commission violence at the other parties nominee won the election, its bleak man. Well, you guys asked for the floor

more serious good use, are pulling our values and pulling second and that's what we got. But let us move on and talk about something else, and that is the primary contest that are starting to fill out for twenty twenty two, but first today's podcast, is brought you by another five. Thirty, eight podcast hot takedown, each Tuesday check out five. Thirty, eight sports, podcast hot takedown or the hot takes up the sports world meet the numbers that proved them right or tear them down. The crew digs into fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the animal.

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The twenty twenty two midterms are still a year and a half away, but the primaries in at least a dozen states are less than a year away. Sidenote does primaries, might move because of really delete census data and they may not have districts drawn up in time in order for those primarily to take place, we're still waiting to see whether or not that happens, but if the counter folds there are a dozen states up, we'll have already held primaries at this time next year, and we will be next year and twenty twenty two in the middle of primary season at this point in the calendar- and so I ask of you, look into some of the key primary raises most competitive primary races that we're seeing shape up so far, and so each of you. Sarah and Jeff took some time looking into some of the most. negative ones, ones that may have a particularly interesting dynamic within the two parties.

We're gonna, do a little bit of around Robin and you will be educating me as well as our listeners, because I have not tracked all of the people who have jumped into some of these primary races around the country. But just why? Don't you take us off and you can ranked than yours? What you think is the most interesting or notable primary rays of twenty twenty two so far, a boy the one house race, then I think we're going to talk about today, because most districts are to be redrawn right, So there are a handful states that only have one congressional district, so they won't be redrawn, and I think what I can say is that one of the most, if not the most interesting house primaries, will be the Wyoming at large seat, which leads to we currently holds and her attempt to hold onto that seed which, because why is so very, very republican or come down to winning the republican primary in all likelihood, Isoude list

these at least for now says she's gonna, be seeking re election and she's gotten a ton of push back from Republicans interstate she's been censured by the State Party, more than half of the county jail. He committees have censured or criticise her formally and obviously Republicans in Washington just removed her from house leadership, so things have been going to great for her she's, pretty clearly under threat could lose and say so we have this figure and change This sort of an anti trump figures become more of one than she was. I think before the election, which has become very much, this anti trop figure within the Republican Party, which is in a terribly popular position nationally at the mall and so a bunch of people of our declared they gonna run against her turn Wyoming. But what's interesting here is

because there are a lot of candidates who have announced that they're going to take her on and the republican primary there actually creating the possibility she might be able to survive, despite the fact that she's been very critical of trump and that could threaten her at the end of the day if opposition can really consolidate, but data day changes can have. A ton of money should already got a lot of money which will help her to some extent in the campaign, but there's no run off all, why arming you know she doesn't have to get a majority of the primary vote, survive. So let's say she has four or five opponents. If she gets like thirty five percent, that might be enough to one renomination and then go to the general election and probably went air, so I'd centres of her opponents it at the moment there is really no clear stand out figure, and so that's an important part of that opposition, not having consult edit and based on report.

About the Wyoming race? It looks like a lot of people who support trump or people are in trumps. Orbit are looking for that person for the former president to support and for them to consolidate behind and person. Just isn't very, but I would you have sort of a list of candidates have come in none of them were terribly impressive in terms of their potential to to beat Cheney. Maybe they could one on wine, but not with this more crowded feed but at least one is gay notoriety for very wrong reasons. That's a state senator named Anti Bouchard, who was very conservative and recently. I think to get ahead of the story, that this is the kind of story that getting ahead of it prior does it do Much freer. He acknowledged impression a fourteen year old girl when he was eighteen, says a bit the past now and then got married when she was fifteen and he was nineteen, which was legal at the time. This was in Florida. legal and floor at the time. It's no longer legal. That laws been repealed, but anyway

gave birth to a son and then later killed herself at the age of twenty, so very terrible scene. we hear involving this guy who's. One of them are well known challenges at the moment. So I'm getting this. That he may not end up being the individual that Trump and his allies sort of rally behind. If there able to do that at all, so we'll have to see how things develop I think that's like the house, That's really interesting, because we know what the districts gonna look like, and that's rare at this point for most of the house- and it obviously involves- is leading anti truck figure Cheney, so you have maybe one of the most sort of protein crop. Eighty truck vibes within that primary yeah, just to be clear if you like, that is going to be the theme of today Trump. On the ballot and twenty twenty two, but he kind of it's like this whole. The primary system is going to be based on loyalty, feel Tita to you know. Each year we ve been tracking endorsements and that's been looking at indoors.

It's from Justice Democrats or who Bernie Sanders endorses in addition to trump endorsements, and I'm super curious to see what that turns out for the twenty twenty. Two election here yacht job that was a very detailed overview of what's going on. in why oh man, I gotta they don't have any any questions I mean I have questions but like they'll be answered with time. Maybe not They can be answered right now what I started that is the it's almost like the most extreme version of the anti tromp for some sort of pro tromp. I think what you get a lot of in these other races is just how pro trump are you? You know your pro trump, but are you super pro trump? Are you supercharged pro trump? That sort of feel like? I think the dynamic and most of the other races, where is when you have Cheney, is a much more clearly anti trump figure at this point The wireless is almost a caricature that is a convenient for them.

media, but not even necessarily representative of the debate within the party, because, like the party has kind of resolve that debate, some extend its largely pro trump and it'll be gradients of pro trubner. Instead of someone, who's voted to impeach Trump verses people who totally love trump. So yes, that dynamic, Wabi tracking throughout this by Sarah. Why don't you take us? You are next primary race that you'll be watching Sancho said the races I dug in too. I think the one that has the most lakes stage. Setting elements for attacks were gonna see in twenty twenty two may be recycled and twenty twenty four tweaked is the Florida Senate race So in that case, marker Rubio he's up again. He won handily and twenty sixteen eight point margin and despite his rancorous relationship with Trump and the twenty twenty, sixteen primary being little Marco and what not from-

former president trumps already endorsed, and he is sense, rebuilt his reputation and career as less of a moderate and more as I want to take on cancer culture fight for you random. and this is going to be at the top, the ticket as well and so in Florida, the last time in twenty team we really had a serious fight. Their between Democrats and Republicans was when former senator The sun was up heathen, loss to wreck Scott and, of course, then Andrew Gilan face two centres that was a super close race undergone, ran as a progressive am still narrowly loss to Santas, though, and so Thou Jennings she's, not officially entered the race, but if she does on the democratic side, that's kind of been looked at as a super high profile get

She also, as the former police chief officer in our Lando brings law enforcement credentials to the ticket, and I think we saw this play out a little bit in Philadelphia just recently with their election and the progressive there one, but to fund the police in that rhetoric is something bad Republicans are trying to make a big issue here in twenty twenty two. I think Deming Scan speak to her background, as in law enforcement, but then also taking steps to reform police. While she was a police officer and those being successful like violent crime in our Lando decreased under her tenure, she has that, in her background, was willing to try new things also running as a black woman in Florida. Energized out of the base in Orlando and can activate a big network there to try to take on Rubio? That said, we don't have any pools right now of the Senate race. We know that Rubio is generally favoured, are hesitant above of water approval

but it's only around fifty percent. So it does suggest that there is appetite for someone to take him on in Florida. The Quest and, as you know, is for it is those sweet state since two thousand eight it steadily inched back towards the right, but as we saw in twenty eight teen, it was a close race with democratic. I think a lot will depend on how the governor nominee will be for Democrats and floor that provided Jennings rents and she seems to be indicating that she well it poses. I think one of their interesting challenges to a sitting republican incumbent. I think it will still be tough, and the pole suggest that at this point, but it should be an interesting race, but are you busy resigned you're there when it comes to the primary, though like Margo Rubio has moved in a more trompe direction. Preventing himself from God the primary challenger and that Thou Jennings would lose

large enough that she would block any one else from really getting into the democratic primary. That's right suit to be clear. Like I think Democrats, they kind of been behind Racines negotiating who's going to run and where they're going to run particular cuz, they also need to fill the governor's slot flick. Stuff. Marie she's been tossed around a lot as running for the Senate. Here she decided nope, I'm actually going to seek re election in my strict. It seems as if support is kind of coolly sing behind Deming, but you know there could be another candidate, their voters, don't like it when you know, there's not a healthy competition? It does seem, though, is if Democrats are trying to rally behind one candidate here in the Senate race, we're? So I thought, then the group in a tory l and then right, Rubio at this point, doesn't really face a serious challenge. Trumps already endorsed them and, as we know trumped doesn't like to Lucy, often will hold off and making endorsements unless he's really confident that canada- or when you

and as you mentioned, it doesn't seem like there's much coalescing on the Florida democratic gubernatorial. our primary side. There's a lot of people who are running for that raised, including the uniform governor of Florida, Charlie, Crest, so we'll see what happens here. I know Jeff, you been tracking about a little. Does it seem like former forty governor kind of boxes out the rest, or is this going to be a real competitive challenge that give the toil primary the democratic side? Florida is shaving s room, notably more competitive in the Senate primary, and that comes out in part to the fact that you have at least a couple notable candidate states that are running or about to be running, Charlie Crest, as we said former governor, but republican government was elected as republican and then later switch the Democrats and is now a democratic represented in the house, is seeking the governorship and he's expected to oppose at the very least Nicky Freed, who is the Commission of Agriculture in Florida and has been shaping

a run for a while and given some of the way that freed has for trade or self. I think she's gonna be trying to run to Christs left, which might be smart, given that in a primary notes, could be more liberal, Lecter it comparatively speaking, then a general actor it of course, I add Chris, as a former Republican just comes with sort of a moderate bearing no matter what positions he's taken since he switched. The democratic party where is freed can run a bit has left more support, I think the early conventional wisdom is that Crest has an edge there, but freed might be able to overtake him any and and obviously were a long way from Florida primary as scheduled it. What should happen in August, of next year so long a time for things to change? There are Alex? What do you have your eyes on in terms of competitive primaries of note, I can say with Georgia, so obviously the saint itself is becoming more competitive, as evidenced by us off

we're, not winds earlier this year, but the primary themselves there can be fun so on their public inside. You have Brien Camp fighting for his second term in what maybe I should have been an easy feet for him, but he lost the support of some Republicans, particularly those on his right flank after he didn't embrace trumps. Unfounded claims about widespread election. In last year's elections. So now has a couple of primary calendars, including earning Jones he's a former democratic state lawmaker turned republic in, and he is one of trumps, most vocal allies in Georgia and also educate Candice Taylor, so those are some of their opponents that he has yet. I was working in camps were beyond his incumbency is a fact that you did sign a very far ranging auction measure. That includes numerous

actions on voting by mail and greater legislative control over how elections are run. To be clear, I dont think Trump is placated by this, but publicans and estate have rallied round the measure and internal polls show comes up. Google reading with conservatives is ticking back up again. There has been too much. moving on a democratic side, because I think everyone is just waiting to see its easy Abrams enters the race. She ended her twenty in, I believe without conceding defeat. I think folksy her running against camp in twenty twenty two, as for very likely next step right now. I just there are public inside is the more interesting one to watch, because I think if Abrams did enter the race I dont see her getting many if any primary challengers and trumpet

to endorse industries. I dont know if he well, but I assume, if he does, he would not endorse camp just based on the back and forth that the two of them had last year in everything like that. So I'd be interested to see if he endorses someone like Wording Jones former Democrat or if he just stay out of this race completely, do we know the white we heard the stacey rooms gets into this raised. This point: is there any behind scenes reporting on her intentions. There have been a few like Georgia, democratic political operatives who are like a hundred percent sure like this is her next move, I also have seen reports say I think she just came out with a book. She hasn't. Contract were she's going on at the book. Tour she's expected have more novels coming out, and everything like that, so I can say with certainty that she's going to run, I think the general

fences that she will and people close to her seem to think that's her next stuff yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if she did, and I mean I don't think the democratic field right now is there's no really like notable candidates or any one. So far, so I think a lot of people are been actually runs down. Ok, we'll! Let you one more round of durable primaries, and then I know that there are more and more to save them for another day, so Jeff. What else do you Your on, so the sinner race in Missouri is an open sea because to term Republican. Senator Roy Blunt is retiring so because Missouri is prey. Republican, leaning, Trump wanted by about fifteen points in twenty twenty, It's been kind of, I Republicans racing into it, or at least positioning themselves to run earliest about an acid thereabout run because data

when the primary their progeny, elected, senator and so really the most notable name. someone who is definitely try to attach himself to trouble even behaving in a trump ask fashion. Is former governor air. Brightens brightens was gone her name's liked enjoy succeed, but he resigned and twenty eighteen a well before his term was up because of allegations over sexual misconduct. Encampment financed violations are, he was facing very possible impeachment by the Republican controlled state legislature, and some of their sexual misconduct allegations are pretty bad in terms of e mail, physically abused the woman, he was having an affair with he threatened to blackmail her if she said anything about the affair, because he had taken a picture of her and like an compromising sexual position or something is very ugly but gardens is claimed. This was

a a witch hunt he's very much come out since launching a campaign with that sort of language and very much tying himself to Trump, and I think his attitude is probably, if Trump run for president successfully, despite having a laundry list of ugly allegations against him. Maybe I can get back into the political arena as well. Despite what's happened to me and he's actually led the limited pole. We ve seen so far their public and primary race there, but I made got a name recognition that fact to use a former governor in large part, and I think Democrats are hoping that brightens gets denomination because they might see it is about the only way that they can make the race competitive. But again, I think there is a good chance that, regardless of who Republicans and of novelty there, that is to be very difficult for Democrats the when but Republicans also don't we have to spend money on this. Raise the god of the seats to defend that should be

a baseline, more danger, you know states like Pennsylvania, for instance or North Carolina, so I think Republicans would very much prefer Brightens did not get the nomination, because then they drive to waste time or money or have to defend him as a candidate. So maybe not. Their favorite alternative is that other guy who's running named Mart Mcclosky and you may have heard about Mart mcclosky because he and his wife gave a lot of notoriety or infamy, and twenty twenty with a black lives matter protest March. Through their neighbourhood, and they came out and brandished weapons at the marchers in their Saint Louis home. Instead, I got a ton of coverage asking his wife, like appeared at the Republic in National Convention and twenty twenty here now, His candidacy, attacker Carson, show. I mean it's very Marcia, I'm a big secondary. it's a a trump supporter. You should vote for me so Don't really know where that campaigns gonna go but is obviously gained a lot of attention, probably the key, it to has more typical,

Everydays is a candidate, is attorney general Eric Schmidt, attorney, attorney general state of Missouri eyes. Also running. And he was actually one of the seventeen republican attorney general to sign onto a far fetched lawsuit to overturn the twenty twenty election result. I even sleep. His office took the lead on the Supreme Court brief that they filed that the people supporting that file so that sort of his notoriety and then the The name at the moment that I think, there's an expectation is gonna run, is conservative. Representative Vicki hearts were used in the house is also possible that Jason Smith another Vulcan representative in the house from Missouri could run. He was actually up in New York, recently seen tromp about a possible doors which might determine whether or not he gets into the race to be clear, both hearts or and Smith voted to reject the electoral votes are generally sixth indent,

else, so this is sort of this crazy, crowded field potentially and I think democratic over the greatest and the money by truck carried, state- easily Clare mechanical. were democratic, Senator when reelection there, twenty eighteen, despite the blue wave and now with AIDS, credit president and the White House and the mid term environment, probably not being as favourable. For Democrats, it wasn't twenty thousand and eighteen of course. It's really hard to see Republicans losing that seat, but it could be a pretty crazy primary doubt that sounds I gotta be a while rights or will have to check back in on how things progress. There are let's closed our here, Sir, and Alex what are your final primary races at your watching, citing the other big one for me that I looked in two was the Ohio Senate re Swift, Rob Portman retiring, you ve seen half a dozen.

more Republicans either come out and say I am running or other considering a bed. At this point there is the loan Democrat TIM Ryan, who might remember from the twenty twenty primary his bid. It seems as if it will be no try to appeal to blue collar working class voters. Try to do it by it and dead and that, as we saw Biden, didn't do that wealth in Ohio trumps. So one by eight point. So it's very much scene. I think it's kind of which Republican it's gonna, win the nomination and there's a lot of activity there. So in terms of whose run at this point. We have Josh Mandel, whose a former state treasurer he actually ran can't shared Brown previously and lost that race? He has good name recognition and, according to some internal Pauling, that the AP had access to it seemed ass if he was also leading in the field?

Jane Temptin she's, a former state GEO, p chair. She raised money for tramped. She also was in a position where she ousted a party chair, who'd, been loyal to former Governor John case such who has been a very public trunk critic and supporter of Biden in TWAIN, twenty election and then there's U business men too kind around it out with J D Vance author of hillbilly elegy considering arise is not he's not officially throwing his hat So I thought was really interesting with him. Is the media writ large kind of jumped on the speculation that he would be running, he's a device, a figure in the sense that he first wrote a book that was kind of the thirty to rule appellation, an Trump supporters and voters and people wanted to understand that culture he has since taken more. They cancel cold serbs stance on shows, like Tucker Karlsson. He has become more supportive and vocal of Troy

than he had been previously. But one thing I thought was really interesting was from a poster public policy pulling back. In March they looked at head to head match ups and Jake Vance over seventy percent of respondents didn have an opinion of them, whereas Ryan, like forty six percent weren't sure Timpan, was also high, sixty four percent and have an opinion, but Mandela was kind of to the extent that there is a front runner, maybe him only thirty, nine, percent market share, so I thought that was interesting. Like Judy fancies, not in the race yet. But also seems as if not a lot of people have a specific opinion of him. So, given national profile, which I guess is not carrying out in Ohio in poles. There could be a opportunity for him to really make some in roads and in terms of like the geological fights we're going to see a Josh.

and down some ways was kind of like a pro trompe character before Trump really arrived on the scene and twenty twelve political fact called him out for Are you know having a casual relationship with the truth and then back two thousand nine when he ran he painted his opponent, a black Democrat Kevin Voice as a Muslim, and he wasn't in this, isn't a tv ad and then in flyers that went out to voters and he handily one that election and his race for state treasurer so nobody's courting at this point Portman endorsement, nor the according governor de wine he's kind of an interesting by partisan figure, so Ohio, smooth to the red. It seems that the primary fight is gonna, be here over how trompe to be one Canada, passing out of scorecard. That shows how trumpery they are, but, oh itself hasn't been in the red column. All that long, you know, Obama did when it in two thousand eight twelve and is shifted since then, but it's possible, you know

men set this when asked about the race that may be will seem more distance from trumpets we get closer to twenty two. But at this point we're not- and so I think it's a case study again. As many of the case studies will see in twenty two about like how much does being close to the former president help or hurt you. That sounds like wishful thinking from Portman, who I dont think is particularly big fan, and of the former president and no one wants his endorsement. Wishes of telling right. I mean, I think, that's a little wishful thinking and looking at that race, I saw the gene. Tat can be mentioned she what seemingly be like, really protracted And- and I think she is broad- in many ways, but this is gonna gained at his gradients. I saw a story that she had been criticized. when she still Thursday Party chaired January for not condemning

then he can tell us who is a member of the House from Ohio, a Republican for not condemning him quickly enough for his vote to impeach drop, you want to send Republicans evaded impeach trumps. I think this is an example of light. How approach on do you have to be in order to meet expectations within the party base? take us from her Alex. What is the last phrase that you're watching, and I should figure there- lots of other ones, as already mentioned, there's some crazy I've going on in Idaho, there's, maybe a competitor primaries, Inhabitant North Carolina, their governors raises and so on. Arkansas could be interesting with transfer press. I crochet so Sir Oughta be Sanders. So we're going to talk about this again, but for now four times sake. Take us home. Some Pennsylvania Senate is. Why are we talking about very short backstory here patchy me not seeking real action

There is a number of Democrats and Republicans surveying the field to replace him and an open you ascendancy is pretty rare in a pre coveted position, one because senators usually don't retire. I'd like to me is in because a Senate term Lass six years Democrats are fresh off of binds victory over from infants We knew so. I think they see the cedars, probably a very likely you most likely bad or a Senate, see to flip from red to blow. so the primary field on both sides sullen flocks, but on the turkish side, Republicans recently picked up a new candidate army better, Sean. For now. He ran for Congress. Last year came up short in his race against Corner Lamb who, by the way, also run for the sea. I think there are some whispers of that, but even in a state that Four bite in Trump loyalty is

very salient factor in this primary. So Donald Trump Junior has endorse her. Now I think the other big european aimed towards right now is Jeff Vartos, he's a wealthy based This man has already learned his campaign. Hundreds of TAT of dollars and was very quick to invoke Trump in his announcement that you, I think for the sake of this segment, though it may be safe to say that Parnell may occupy a trump. Your lane embargoes democratic feels also very crowded, probably the name folk suffered, the most is which had it Governor John Feder men, he's running for the sea. He is by far the biggest fundraiser. On top of that, you have seen Representative Malcolm. Can you go, I believe was a prominent surrogate for Biden binds. Presidential campaign is also Montgomery, tiny commissioner vow arches, and then on top of that, just a handful of other state and federal elected officials. Looking at this race, I think Republic,

like their audience better men. The best I mean he's pretty progressive and again he's the biggest fundraiser so far, but those candidates warning to replace to me May, keep growing. So I would probably its bats plenty of drama in this re swell before the general election job, because this is one of the reasons why there is a long list of Democrats running what kind of cleavage is. Are we seeing in terms of what is on offer? for Democrats in the primary, so the two I would say leading democrats for remaining can yadda are approaching the early stage of the primary by we think, support for several progressive leading platforms. Both support raising the minimum wage to fifteen dollars. Both support, ending the filibuster for exam but I mean they're running a battleground state were Biden Moderate platform, just barely one. The presidency and last year Democrats fell short in virtual

every other major twenty twenty political area. So I dont know if that strategy will all that seems to be what they're doing primary wise. On their public inside it's the same except running to the right and seeing if you can get trumps endorsement, alright well enclosing thought here, as we wrap up talking about twenty four into primary for now just it there's a long way to go in. I think that the first primaries will be in March, assuming they are delayed because redistricting, as you said Before so, we're still a long way away from from knowing just what cities can it feels it gonna look like

It does seem as though, like the republican sides, a little more clear cut in terms of like what the biggest reanimating question is. Rightly just how close to Trump are you gonna be or it well, we will keep track your man over the coming months, but what we therefore now so thank you, Jeff Alex and Sarah things they scanning my name is due hundred twenty chow is in the virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing and really is our in turn. You can get a touch of bright emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com, also persuaded us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave us a rating or reviewing the apple pie, tat store or tell someone about us thanks for lessening and we will see,

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