Hey there, listeners before we begin I wanted to let you know that, since we're talking about Brexit today, we connected with uh Full international guests and we had a lit, connectivity trouble with one of our guests, so the audio is spotty in places, never the less. It was a really interesting conversation and we hope you can forgive any of the audio difficulties here it is enjoy. The show hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics, podcast Brexit addition, I'm gay landruk and today we're going to take a breather from american politics and head across the pond to the United Kingdom. It doesn't feel like it's all that, often that America's political drama actually gets overshadowed, but ok is doing a pretty good job of it. This week on Monday, Prime Minister, Theresa, May postponed a parliamentary vote on a day.

Believe the European Union by Wednesday May zone conservative Party had triggered a vote of no confidence against her, which she survived. Now, Greece amazing Brussels at an EU summit, to try to keep me in negotiating parts of the brexit deal and if you don't know what, if this means you're not alone, don't worry we're going to try to break it all down for you and maybe discuss some of the bigger questions about what this whole fiasco says about democracy and the political era that we're living in. I'm not an expert enough on british politics to do that on my own, so I've asked to professors from the University of Cambridge to help they have a politics podcast their own in the UK called talking politics. First, we have professor of call economy, Helen Thompson, Hi Helen thanks for joining us today, hi and we- and we also have professor of politics, David Runciman, hi David, just

the gates, I'm curious. I know you also discuss american politics on your podcast, so I have to ask if you had to pick from a political science perspective, which country has more interesting politics right now I don't but a lot of time in the last thirty years, be engaged with american politics. I would find it exciting dramatic that, what's going on but right now, because it's a chinese eight, a story about constitutional it's about economic questions. It's about geopolitical questions is about divisions within the political party, spot, long repressed. His street terms of the union coming back pretty much is about because the cats David, do you agree with the yeah. I mean, I think, if you like, a perfect storm, we've got the perfect storm. I struck, the New York Times put trees in my winning a confidence ahead of the press, slowly going to jail, given the vote didn't change anything. I think I might have the order of those two stories, but I think deep down in more interest in what's happening in your country.

I think at the moment, if you like suspense, you don't want to know, what's going to happen next, where the place to be ok. So, let's begin with what happened odd Wednesday, we don't have confidence, votes in America, I guess other than red rescheduled elections. How common? Are they? How big of a deal I a for party leadership, and why was this and in particular triggered so we need distinguished as former no confidence in the government and then is the vote of no confidence in the party leader, which is what this fight was on behalf of in this the cause of the Mps, the So it's a pretty rad. I mean how long can correct me, but a confidence in party leader when parties in government hasn't happened since John Major more than twenty years ago or right, yeah you're right, you could say that, three, the last four conservative prime ministers, because such a one as well, he was deposed side of

isn't for conservative prime ministers who hasn't faced a party vote of confidence and the big when John Major did it. He called it himself. He could the no confidence himself in the sense that you put in he resigned as leader of the conservative party, put himself up for reelection. Trying to flush out his appointments and it pops exceeded health. Didn't this one was up to be a straightforward and her opponents to unseat was this triggered specifically because of brexit? Yes, yeah. I mean there is context. It goes beyond brexit in the sense that is, is that there's been a set The conservative party that's been deeply unhappy with it ever since the conservative majority at the last general election in two thousand and seventeen, but the immediate trigger one hundred percent factor, but then the uh. To put it is that when John Major did it all those years ago the trigger with Europe. It wasn't brexit that it was Britain's relationship with the European Union, and that is a long running sore in british politics, particularly conservative politics over a generation, and this

Brexit has raised the stakes enormously. This is part of that longer story may survive the vote. She got two thirds of the vote most of the headlines that I describe? That is not a great outcome for her Helen. Is that a fair characterization? Thank How do the politics of the monument in this Is that what it showed is just how difficult it is for her to get this withdrawal like through the House of Commons? because you can kind of tech numbers of conservative Mps. It wouldn't vote for in the leadership, is the bare minimum who are going to vote for the withdraw testing step. I think if you took that issue out of it would have been so bad for her, but it's kind of flushed out the number of, prudence there are within the Party of withdrawal at in any form that it looks like at the moment. Does this, for all intents It does mean that the brexit deal under consideration right now will not pass the House of Commons. It wouldn't pass

less something significant happens within the European Union and some reasonable concession from Theresa May's point of view is made to her by the EU twenty seven. I mean. What could that be? but if you want to weigh in what could change in the conversation between? the UK in the EU. That would need to some kind of agreement being passed through the House of Commons before the end of March. At a lot of these turns on the backstoppers, it's cool, but more broadly, what Brexit means for Island of Ireland and the relations between Northern Ireland and the republic, and the key government here is the irish government. I mean the irish government would need to sign off on any change to this deal, and so the signals from island to being that that that's not going to happen and and part of the complication here- is that the irish government, uniquely among other european governments, its reputation, is at stake here too, it's very hard for the current irish government to back down on this

I mean my feeling about the result of the confidence voters. It was almost perfectly calibrated to resolve nothing if a few more gangsta. She might have been and enough that she was really vulnerable if a few few voted against uh. She might have been strengthened by it. This was almost the number at which we're back where we were. This is a pretty basic question, but Theresa may's job right now seems almost like the worst job in Britain. Why does she even want this job? What's preventing her from saying you don't like what I've done? Take a vote. If you don't want me here anymore, I'm out, like I have other things be doing instead of being yelled at by like everyone on every part of the political spectrum. It is true, the big difference relative to the presidential system like yours is that premises can resign. I mean presidents, don't resign, it's sort of unconstitutional in a way to resign, but Prime Minister Canon do resign when it becomes impossible, but this

her character as well, and it is worth noting that, though she is really hated by some section. Our own parliamentary party, her standing the country with the public, has probably gone up because her key characteristic, the kind of dog of doggedness audience keep going. Some people most see it as a kind of masochism, and this is playing whose strength she, I think, p, I've been surprised, including some of her opponents in the party by the extent to which the public haven't turned on her. I think people know who she is now, and I think at this point people would be quite surprised if she resigned, because not resigning has become her cooling card. She's made up, there's no commitment to herself that she's getting down to the end to try to deliver brexit. She may fail, but uh believe that she's at the point, but she thinks that she's filed there and so so long as there's any remote.

But she's the person who's going to be able to do this? Having given? I think what was a pretty personal commitment and that she was going on in the result of the referendum. Is she will carry on? What is her strategy at this? How does she try to see a deal through the House of Commons I think of what she's trying to do is to persuade the twenty seven that, while they clearly are not going to agree to change the withdraw payment itself that they might agree, some kind of protocol, which would make it clear. That there is no realistic prospect of the backstop lasting for anything more than say a period of six months by MAX from a year, and then he's gonna have to hope that that is enough for some her backbenchers to think that, while said, there's a legal problem with a backstop that there isn't a political prob the backstory, I think the other part of the strategy is, is going to be time that the clock is ticking. There's a deadline to this, the twenty ninth about the thing that there is clearly

A significant fear of among a majority of members of parliament is what is called no deal or a hard brexit. As that gets closer to being a realistic possibility. She has at least the chance to phone mines. The danger for her is there's also significant minority you that outcome and as that hum becomes closer and closer. It gets if she doesn't prepare for it, I'm not preparing for, let's see responsible, so it's it's very it's complicated, but as we get closer to the moment of truth, some of the dynamics of this will change, particularly in the opposition party. The Labor Party, that's a crucial part of that. Not just about what happens inside the conservative party. There are many labor members of parliament who would be very, very uncomfortable with a no deal brexit and they're, going tough decisions to make, as that becomes closer to reality.

You mentioned that perhaps may is standing with the british public had improved after the course of events. What kind of polling do we have about, how they view Mais job, but also just how they've Do this fundamental question of how to leave the European Union whether to leave the European Union yeah we had. I need to tell you put cost. A lot depends on what question you are asking the pole as to what kind of on to get to that the to be on the on the range of polling, a small move on the part of the public, which I fifty two forty eight to leave towards the That was a mistake, so maybe be mailing to correct. Maybe there's a five percent shift among people who voted to leave might well remain, but you can read right along to that as to what in another referendum, because everything would depend then again what the question was on the referendum. Is it remain hardly visit. Theresa Mays Deal still remain lots of different possibilities that

I think the underlying stories that hasn't been that much movement in public opinion on the basic question remain or leave a standing is going up in the sense. I think she has the respect of people at a of personal level, but the one question that gets a clear see also what people say this is. Are you sick of brexit and people want it done? In some sense, it's kind swallowed up all the oxygen in british politics. It is technical, it's fantastically boring to most people

so there's a kind of building frustration there now, whether that frustration would manifest in people just saying that just do it take whatever deals on the table or whether it would manifest in people saying. Let's just scrap it is another question yeah I think there's basically is a three way split between. I want to put percentages on it between those who constitutes of both by leave. Voters on remain voters who want to leave the European Union with this deal. Those who were contested by the voters who wants know deal because they think this ones are betrayal and those who were constituted by removing voters, but not all remain voters who want either a second referendum or now given the opportunity given by the European Court of Justice, simply one article fifty revoked. Now. What that

turn out into if you actually put that to another referendum. Obviously in huge part is going to turn on with you ask between two of those options or all of those options, and then what do you do about you simply going to have a winner takes all, even though under three options, it's obvious that one of them is it going to get to fifty percent. So it didn't even just I think, of two way split any longer. British politics is found three way split and it is at least possible to resumes deal. It has very few people in favor of it nine the could win in a three way vote if people add to list the second preference me as possible. I think I think it's going certain actually that it would be most people second preference might be very few people's first preference, but there's in british history being a referendum which is anything other than a straightforward, binary question. We don't do three way: Stine's, never mind multiple voting systems, so

into a little bit more about what this says about democracy and how our systems of government are holding up, but before we do that, let me tell you that today is podcast is brought to by upstart debt. Some people have a lot. Some people have a little and the vast Geordie of us have some but trying to get on the path to financial freedom can look pretty bleak when you have high interest debt and if your phico score isn't great, it can make breaking out of that revolving debt cycle harder than it needs to be. Thankfully, up star is revolutionizing the process of personal lending. Upstart offers personal loans, but they're not like the ones your bank or credit union provides. That's because upstart goes beyond the traditional phico score when assessing your credit worthiness, for instance, they actually reward you based on your education and your job history, in the form of a smarter interest rate. Two minutes is all it takes to go online and find out your upstart rate. Checking your upstart rate is always free and it won't affect your credit. Hurry to upstart dot com, slash politics, to find out how low your uh

our rate. Is that's up start dot com, slash politics all right, so we were just talking about how the british people would vote if given another opportunity to say how they feel is that anti democratic? How is the even the possibility of another vote on this issue? Viewed in Britain, I think a lot of people who wanted this right from the start, who are committed to put in staying in the opinion of tool top plate length of time the fifteenth, but she has been taken. The kind of practice they created the end of it because of a a deadline was going to be an opportunity to have a have a second referendum on the subject, and they, you know, taken to calling it a people's right. I think the problem with the idea that this can be put back to the

electric, though, is, is that everything that has happened in between it's not like we got it would be taking another snapshot of what it is that people think about the question of whether Britain should be staying in or leaving the European Union. What they liked it a scene is: is a group of people well represented in the in the political class, but also in the professional middle class, have spent a lot of time trying to ensure that the outcome this period of politics that we're living through is that Britain doesn't leave the European Union so that it's very difficult to see how a referendum can take place without perception that it's been rigged in favor of playing in the European Union and say the other complication here. Is that the event that would Intervene between the first and second referendum was a general election, so this Theresa Mays Predict, is the result of our last general election. Which she tried to make a vote on Brexit Tub pitch was essentially give me a big majority in parliament and I'll be strengthened to get you a good deal of brexit to which the voting public said. But we

interested. In that we want to vote on the usual election issues, whether it's welfare or tax, or schooling or health or whatever, and it came a domestic election, the problem is always being to sort of plug this referendum result back into a domestic police, situation where people at a general election voted on other issues. So parliament is blocked and stark, partly because of that election, because it wasn't a brexit elect and so we can at the at the like his would go through another danse, another referendum, but that also then be another election cause would almost certainly have a new government and no one at the because worked out in this period since Brexit, how, when you square the circle of referendum, politics, an bridge parliamentary politics and that that gap is just as wide as ever, not least because the people voted for something for which is not a majority in parliament. Our audience is pretty familiar with us. Talking about the divides that exist in american pie.

Text in american politics, probably more than in british politics there. Very demographic based divides. What are the divides in british politics today I mean: are they becoming more demographic? How would you characterize them comparison to american politics? I think they are similar, but with the caveat that that similarity this brought out by this referendum, so it's much starker, is referendum, then, with the party political system, where some of the old divisions, So one of the things this referendum brought out was a fundamental divide between metro what's an urban areas in rural areas, between generations, old and young. Divide around education, whether or not you went to college was the single biggest determinant of how you are likely to vote in the brexit referendum that tended to be here by our two party system, where the parties were still aren't quite complicated missions around these things, though random made. It looks dark one of the reasons I think in lots of ways, people who run

exit and Trump's election together, a confusing two very different phenomena, but on this those demographic divisions looks strikingly similar to that of The real were revealed by Trump's election- hello- maybe jump in here. Where do the two stripe for people who compare the two as similar? Why why shouldn't we I think the difference is. Is I don't think that a lot of the division they have come out. Interesting, could really can really be fitted into kind of cultural narratives. That has come to at least in part, be used about american politics. I don't think you can see, for instance, in a light religion playing anything like the role that it does and divisive. Why in american politics, and so I I think that there is a divide that to express if you are between the proper. This is in London and that that's in sometimes more important than metropolitan areas and London, and I think that makes it different from american politics is.

Talking about coastal areas versus the middle? I think that love controlling? This is a divisive in some sense, is a divisive center of power of wealth is much more important than the in the brexit case and is sometimes recognized, and I think that there is a sense in which these are old political questions in Britain that, if you like, had to confirm what are very contemporary political dividing create educational divide, but also obviously divisions of opinion about immigration. You can tell a story about the divides of british politics and they have a very long history. They can get back centuries in terms of the brexit question in terms of what does Britain do in terms of its relations with Europe, and particularly

I think it looks like a centralizing european power and he did not struggle to explain that in terms of american politics and american divides. But it's something that's happening pretty. That is taking these longstanding historical questions and then plug them in, if you like, into these contested political it that we can see across western democracies just one other thing? Try. The other big difference is that the brexit divisions in british politics cut across divisions between nations. So there's a there's, a huge issue here about Wes fits in the weather United Kingdom come, together to the certain conditions and the fact that Scotland, in a very different way, England, Wales and the Northern Ireland, which is now the center of the entire look john- has a different political settlement from the rest of the UK. I don't there are of course, system that United States are all sorts of different political tensions at the state level, but this cuts across

nationalism within the United Kingdom and what you could call this. This question, which also has a century long history, has become a key under these conditions. What lessons are there in Britain's experience with brexit about the structural elements of its democracy, like is this the way the british system of government is supposed to be working, but some it doesn't relatively easy one to answer. So where is the dysfunction coming from 'cause? I think Americans also feel like Washington isn't functioning the way that it's supposed to? We generally blame it on partisanship, I would say, but you know money in politics, gerrymandering all kinds of different so the structures of our democracy get blamed for that dysfunction. Where would you point the finger in Britain I think there are lots of things here and Helen may have views that differ from mine.

One feature of this is just the electoral system itself of of first past the post system. That tends to be isn't she designed to produce two parties that all rival parties for government, a party of government and a party of opposition in a very fractured political lance it's hard to run all these divisions through those two parties and so part of the disk Should we have is a two part, system because of the way the our electoral system works, trying to co with a whole range of overlapping divisions that make the parties themselves? Much harder to manage the Labor Party is really struggling with Brexit to the opposition party, isn't well play to present itself as an alternative party of government around this issue. So I think that is deaf only a part of it. I think that has parallels with what's going on in the United States, I mean, I think it is striking that the recent things that people associate with democracy having gone wrong. If that's the way they look at it. The election of Donald Trump Brexit have happened in

two party system. Multi party systems have problems to my god. European politics is not model here. You wouldn't look at ITALY, you wouldn't look at many, doesn't say we should do it like that, but killer dynamic. It comes out of that and just one more thing to finish on, I mean that there are I haven't said these long long aspects to this story that deeply into british history and also into the history of the last three thousand and forty years in Britain's relationship with Europe. But some of the recent stuff is really contingent mean. There are ways could have come out very differently. The referendum might not have happened. The ref it could have been one by the other side. Theresa may could have won a majority in the last election and then we shouldn't over. That this was all somehow pre determined we've reached an impasse that kind of perfect storm impasse, partly because of deep structural, Does it work and partly through a series of accidents or contingencies? I think we sometimes overstate, but it was always going to get to this point and we've got the way that Toy

a couple of things over the last couple of years and british politics does not look the same today right here at five hundred and thirty eight, we often impress upon people that a one point victory is not so different from a one point LAS when it comes to actually analyzing what lies beneath yeah. I think that this kind of contingency, because at the outset that campaign, you might say quite likely that the main component would have worked, and I don't think that would have actually taken the question away. We would have just sort of kicking down, maybe a few years, the question of life, Britain confronting its relationship with

European Union. I think its true dysfunctional structural dynamics at work. The first is is that Britain to the european Community is it then was one thousand nine hundred and seventy three. It never really found a way of reconciling it with its constitutional practices. That whole question was fudget by essentially saying that printer during the european community wasn't the constitutional question. It was only a question of Britain's economic relations and particularly its trading relations with the european community. So in some sense there always had to be Nile that there was anything constitutionally incompatible between membership of the European Union and the way in which the british constitution worked. I think the second thing that is kind of is playing itself out is is changes that were made to the british constitution in regards to the union in the late 90s under the I come in the giving to evolutions is cotton wiles and leaving

governance of England on Todd that left in english question in UK politics, that kind of would be kept at bay. So phone's knew labor were in power and there wasn't any tension between government of Westminster government Cardiff in government, in Edinburgh, but once that wasn't the case and once the conservative party, which is stronger in then came back into government, then this question of what to do about the governance of England was going to come and in some sense it is come out through the vote in England to leave. Opinion. Clearly, the system is facing some challenges Where do you see things going from here? I've got no idea. If you want my little answer to that question, I think that anybody in Britain who tells you that they've got a clear idea. What's what's now going is already confronting the depth of the problem is simply is incest, the school agreement with it all

regional arrangements for any of the three possible paths to be I mean by that staying in new and you did leaving, can you name with critical acclaim or leaving the European Union without one? Not none of that can command a majority in the House of Commons, and I did. I don't think it will be possible if you have general election elect to different house of Commons, that you would actually change that dynamic. So some side that has committed itself extremely strongly to a position is going to have to back down and in some sense, be humiliated in order for us to get past where we are and no bets on who that might be, I think the people who haven't really been put to the test yet at the labour leadership, because they have essentially been able to deal with Brexit as a tactic question about trying to purchase a conservative government in transit engine

circumstances that would be put in the election and the possibility of labor taking power itself and the harder it becomes for them to realize that strategy, the more than that they put into a position where they actually have to make a choice about what their position on leaving or not the European Union is. So I think that I wouldn't want to bet what they will then do. But I think that's the point that hasn't been pushed to breaking point yet well I guess only time will tell it appears that they'll have to make up their minds by the end of March. Unless

Is there anyway that that deadline could be kicked down the road? There is a possibility that the UK could ask for an extension to article fifty that particular that European Union would only agree that with a certain conditions, one of which would be holding another referendum or quite possibly hold a general election, so that still doesn't in itself get this past. The problem there's almost certainly enough to be a vote before the 21st of January in terms of the withdrawal ACT itself, because that's a parliamentary timetable that has been set out, but we get to that point and this withdrawal like can't get through. Then we. Least onto another stage. Alright. Well, perhaps the two of you: it can come back and speak to us again once this is resolved, or once we reached that new stage, where there's a new level of unknown an chaos in Britain. Well, that would be good to do so. Fabulous well Helen. Thank you. So much thanks again, Galen asking us and thank you David pleasure. Thank you.

Helen Thompson is a professor of political economy. At the University of Cambridge and David runs, man is a professor of politics at Cambridge as well. They host the podcast called talking politics, which does a great job of talking about interesting questions surrounding politics around the I'm dealing drugs, Tony Chau is in the control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. Thank and for listening, and we will see you soon.