French laundry. It's gotta be like now. The most famous restaurant in California, while I do know, is that true had already was right in and out. I guess if you count in and out I would say either in an hour, and so do you see in an hour. probably as the most famous restaurant in California pick one ago, so it in an hour, then french law hello and welcome to this. With late night election night Edition of the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm dealing group, it's about half past midnight on the EAST coast and the effort to recall California, Governor Gavin Newsom, has failed. We're still way for the final tally. But it's enough of a blow out that the networks were able to call the race less than an hour after the poles closed at the time are recording. It looks like the no vote on the recall is on track to

the yes vote by somewhere in the range of twenty points, but of course I want to secure the panel's way and on where they think this raises headed. So we don't know exactly where it's gonna land, because there are still many more votes to count. But we're going to talk about that right now. The race touched on usually in large part covered restrictions, but also got into debate surrounding the environment, housing, abortion and election integrity. So let's talk about all of that in here with me to do it, our politics, editors, our process and he Sarah Hake Ellen. I don't think we ve done like a late night pack has like this since November. Twenty twenty that that fitful week that we in our apartment, recording videos and not sleeping so I don't know how to memories. This brings back for you, but

We all know that this is an area that right guns. Far far far also with us, is seen in elections, analysed, Nathaniel break a chain of annual again, and also here with us is editor and California native Mayas Wheeler. Thank you for joining us again and links we haven't me, and this is this- is your five three politics pot cast debuted servants particularly special to have you? Thank you. So I mentioned the twenty point number that the kind of on. We call, which means keep Gavin knew some that might be railways. This race is headed. Does anyone have any more like a fine tuned sense of where this could end up

I don't know it's hard to say so right now, with the results as they are now, where we ve counted on a good night s. Basically all the male votes at this point, but very few election day votes are looking attitude, one margin for not recalling Newsome, so sixty seven percent, no thirty, three percent. Yes, that's a thirty four percent margin. I kind of feel like that margin isn't condemn that much like maybe it'll come down five to ten points so wake. I feel this could actually and being quite significant, like twenty five point when but then again them in the polls, did indicate more in the neighbourhood of the fifteen. To twenty point: when so, maybe it'll be maybe the election day rule we redder than we think it will be at a no, I don't want to make any strong per proclamations, but these are. These are strong. Number is obviously to get a call

early rate strong numbers images echo that only sixty percent of the vote has been reported at this point. So it is possible that the annual a saying that will see more of a shift but as an then it was getting at. It is hard to imagine that you know it's a ten point shift at this point right, because if I think to see

desks like ABC News, had thought that that would happen? You know we wouldn't have had a call so early in the evening now. I could see a ten point shift, but what would it be like twenty point shift in order to get down to even where the pulling average had? It seems like a lot, so I feel like the poles, if anything underestimated how unloosen would do and when we try to break this down in terms of who ultimately turned out. What did turn out look like because this is an oddly timed election in a race that many people may not have been aware of until recently did a lot of Californians and voting, and was there some kind of disparity amongst who was most likely to turn out so right now there eight point three ash million votes reported, which is pretty high. Considering that just approximately sixteen sixty percent of the estimated vote on turnout seems pretty high in the big urban areas, L County has almost two million votes in.

Just pretty big for an off your election to the fact that now we're mailed out to everyone, the fact that Newsome just blanketed the states and adds in August in particular, probably helped yeah. I mean I was a little bit surprised by how high turnout was, particularly in the coastal areas. Now we kind of have this conventional wisdom that you know it's an off your election, the eternal it's going to be a lower, but at least four gubernatorial recall actions in granted. The sample size here is three that has improved be the case, though it ain't no oftentimes, it's either. The turn out is higher than it was in the previous selection or in one instance, from North Dakota wasn't higher, but it was like maybe a twenty thousand point drop off to not a huge shift in the amount of people who turned out So it is that something may be. We lose sight of. Two is its its inner regularly timed election. Yes, but at the but the day in our enthusiasm is often pretty high for these kind of elections.

just to put some numbers on at this election has already had more voters than the twenty fourteen regular gubernatorial election had in California. That was about seven million and it wouldn't be shocking to see it approached the the twelve or thirteen million who voted in the twenty eight ten contorta election, so which, of course was very high in and of itself so had turnout was impressive, because so many Californians vote by male. We were able to track in the weeks leading up to election day who was turning and our ballots and as we talk about on this package, as it was skewing pretty heavily towards older voters, white voters, educated voters, things like that. You know, as we got down to election day for Israel was their big Turner months, Republicans on a watch and eye and then also as far as Democrats are concerned, did younger people and voters.

Colored particularly hispanic voters, who argued, are the largest group of voters, but a state in California, you know I was there a boost in turn out their based political intelligence, which has about returned tracker. It does look like the youth turnout ended up being significantly lower, then, other age, demographic, only twenty, six percent of California voters between the ages of eighteen and thirty, four return there ballots compared to thirty seven percent between the ages of thirty five and forty nine and sixty five percent of those sixty five plus. So, even though calibre is a relatively young state and has a pretty solid chunk of its electorate under the age of fifty. Those folks are just not quite as engaged as the older voters and the state, at least in this election yeah and then going off the preliminary exit polls we have from this evening, and I think this in particular kind of captures. Why Republicans had such a challenging road here and they recall- was it

Fifty two percent of voters in recall raided the Republican Party unfavourably compared with a fifty one percent favourable rating- or the Democratic Party and in more you know, fundamentally, Democrats just seem to have out numbered republicans in the preliminary exit pull data by seventeen percentage points of forty three percent to twenty six percent and as we said earlier in the pot cast it, this will narrow as we get more results, but I think that discrepancy they're kind of speech. To the larger margin than even anticipated from final poles from new some one thing we ve been tracking in particular, Alex animals have been writing about. This on, live blog is suspended, in the state. You know following the twenty twenty election, it seemed as if Republicans really thought that you know what swing. Hispanic voters towards tromp that may be Republicans would continue to make inroads there and what we I've seen so far again with the preliminary exit data is that they Meda

You know a lot your share of the electorate here in the recall than they have in previous mid term elections, but fifty eight percent voted to retain knew some, including sixty two percent of the Tina women and fifty three percent of latina. And there was a drop drop off their among men. but still the overwhelming majority of hispanic voters in California did not want her called Newsome, and you mentioned here that some of these margins will change our regard for results when should weeks back to those for results, so I would say in about a week, ballots had to have been postmarked by today September fourteen. I guess I was yesterday now and they have to arrive by September twenty first so shortly after that, we should have all the balanced counter, this

Ba twenty scenario where valets had weeks to rise, and we were waiting until December. Basically, further full results are so there you have it there's like the data that are top of mind right now. What are the tailor ways for each of you in terms of where this race ended up just a month ago it looked actually competitive. We ve talked about the survey USA, pull on the spot costs before that made the race but more competitive than it actually was, but also at even if you take that pull out of our point average, it was still a race of as in the single digits, according to the polls in early August. Obviously, what alternate ended up happening is very different, so for people trying to like a rapid bow around tonight's results. What can you give me what we were talking about? The live bargaining and curious for man. Daniels thoughts on this was kind of what role

did Covin nineteen play in this rate, like we know that the pandemic played a major role in terms of Republicans having enough time to get enough signatures on the ballot and make the recall action a possibility right, but then, ultimately, even though Newsome had a lot of high profile snafu, where there was the french laundry whether was sending his children to private schools during the pandemic, California, voters. overwhelmingly in these preliminary exit polls seem to have supported what California has done more nuisance been governor there, additionally, in looking at the latest, CDC Data, California good and well when it comes to cases in the state, mortality is in we were talking earlier? You know like how much can you extract from this one election about kind of cuban nineteen in general? You know to what It would even be the same kind of issue and twenty twenty two and you know

I was kind of hesitant to really read too much into this, ultimately seem to kind of boil downward partisanship like California is really blew it still going to be a Democrat. There then curious Meyer Nathaniel? What did you guys think in terms of like covert effect in the election, I mean fortunes by and large do approve of nuisance handling of the pandemic. The latest p p. I see people of the state founded about six and ten Californians the way he was handling, and particularly early on when he was making these big aggressive moves like instituting. the earlier shut down orders in the states by letting kind of counties region Did you shut on orders as the second and third waves hit people didn't really seem to take as much issue with it. As we have seen, their states so if it was just kind of partisanship, manifesting in a different way. I don't think he's actions on coal, wherever such that they were going to turn people who supported him off. They were kind within

the realm of reason for a lot of these voters and work gonna be the reason they wanted to remove him. One thing that stood out to me from the recall action. As you know, this is kind of affirmation right that California is solidly democratic, but it does I mean it's super progressive. Those actually a point you made on the life Blog Nathaniel on. You know something we ve seen for ballot initiatives in the state and a kind of wonder even with this kind of resounding victory and maybe resoundingly two grand of away. Put new sims current standing, but where We think this leaves kind of Democrats in the state moving for like we know it, this kind of a mandate for new sum for the rest of his term or how California kind of threat some of the tensions between being very democratic cleaning, but also, maybe not actually, that progressive in the state. I would hesitant of reading support for new some as enthusiasm for new. Some like people want

see governor, that doesn't mean that their super thrilled that he is governor, there's not a tonne to show for his task. Years in the governors mention a lot of that is because of the pandemic, and things have just started to move on housing and and homelessness in the state legislature. But for the most part, a lot of these very progressive policies that he had pro to enact when he, when he assumed the governorship in January. Twenty nineteen haven't really come to be it's a referendum on him put forth by Republicans. It's just like it's a hard thing to kind of like grab my head around in terms of what it means for his broader standing among the left so now I bring it out because one thing that stood out to me was that, even though voter seem to overwhelmingly have named Tino Covert, nineteen is whether top issues that they were concerned about. We definitely samples leading up to the election like that. Wasn't the only that voters had been dissatisfied around new synonym curious how those fault,

whether it's you know wildfires or housing, inequality continued like bubble up in the state you I mean. I think it is worth noting that his recall performance is likely to outstrip his approval rating. Ah, here we ve seen consistently. The disapproval rating is like in the fifties, maybe like fifty near fifty fifty five percent and it looks like he's. Gonna win. Sixteen sixty five percent of the of the boat, and so I think clearly there are people who are wild about him, but near saw this race as a Democrat, Verses republican, raising

clear in the county by county results of books, basically identical to the TWAIN. Twenty presidential map right now ends, and yes, so, while Newsome, I'm sure we'll try to claim a mandate and say that everything is great cause new, that's what any more politician, but do they try to spend this in their favour? Ah, I think this is a little more than a referendum on the Democratic Party in cash for India and amusing himself shrewdly in the end made it into that kind of framework. As a republican recall, he very much ram against slavery elder who was out there doing musement bunch of favours by saying he would reporting appoint a Republican to the Senate if given the chance and that he would kind of roll back all these popular coded restrictions, Newsome had put into place, and so so yes, by associating himself with a brain

a strong in the state. The democratic party Newsome has kind of created a nice little arm or offer himself, but it may be a a mirage, at least extent, I want to continue this conversation in just a minute. But first today's podcast is brought to you by podium. Your customers have grown to x like a simpler way of doing business, no matter your product, that's why more than ninety thousand local businesses of all sizes have time to podium. Podium makes doing business as easy as sending a text, because when text get opened, business gets done. All your employees can text from a single inbox offering a smoother experience for your customers. Answering questions. Send a text collecting reviews send a text. Some examples from podium, car dealerships are selling,

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when it comes to covert. I think it's also complicated, because the trajectory of how covered was affecting Californians on the country changed throughout the election, and we saw the dynamics of the race changes are resolved to towards the beginning of the summer. It seemed like Newsome was moderating a little but a little bit more reluctant to put in new restrictions at the very beginning of kind of the delta very spreading across the country, but then, as it were, a lot of cases in Texas in Florida across the sun Bout, it seem like him be able to draw a comparison between California and those states worked a lot better for him politically that it was a set when it was essentially him just trying to defend some of the most restrictive policies in the country which California origin.

had so when it comes to you. No coward. Democrats gonna run on covert policy over the next year or so I think it's hard to say. I think it really depends on obviously how the pandemic is doing where in the country of their running, you know what concerns people in that part of the country have at that point. Time, but I think a lot of people have been saying will, after best Biden, it's gonna feel a lot stronger about vaccine. and AIDS, and whatever covered restrictions. He might, you might have maybe run more on the offensive. You know I don't I think it matters a lot. What actually happens on the ground over the coming year game- and I think that's right. California- is not the United States, its more liberal. So I'm not sure that to widen should be looking to this necessarily. But that said him vaccine mandates unpopular and I'm just not sure that this really changes anything for Britain's policy or Democrats Paul

see anything. I agree we after waiting. I will note- and it's not too much of a spoiler, because that will be on the site tomorrow, but we are also you know, doing a piece right now. That's looking at the races, the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey and even Virginia, is clearly not as blue State as California to Nathaniel's point. You know over all policies, whether its mass mandates for mandating that no children once their eligible, be vaccinated and schools. That is also broadly popular, Virginia, there's more support for the mass mandates. Then I'm support for children getting back stated this point. That might be because there's of accessing yet available for children, but it is interesting and something to keep an eye on, but I share your ear caution, Galen and not over interpreting what we saw in California. What are we talking about? The future of the ability to recall governors in California is that liable?

change is certainly think. Democrats would want to Lake pushed this in the legislature, re, Nathaniel, Maya and a man. You were looking at what I found, how California's really quirky on this front before the election yeah The language of the recall. That's written into the state constitution essentially has been untouched. for about a hundred and ten years, There is political will to change and to make it a little bit more challenging to either get Rico. On the ballot by raising the signature threshold or what, they allow. You know, candidates who are on the ballot to be recalled to run as a replacement or whether They just appoint lieutenant Governor YU, no gun Should the governor be recalled it link. All of this could be on the table. It just a question of how badly democrats want to get it done. I mean they have Subaru majorities and in both houses,

in both chambers of the state legislature yeah. There is support among the California public for a lot of those reforms. You go to the polls shortly before I'm showing support for for some those reforms that I mentioned and that's important, because I believe right, Maya that, because it is a change to the state constitution, it would have to then go too bad to voters Isabella measure after the legislature past it. Yes, exactly are so we will see if, after you know, to recall elections this century so far and half of all, The report gubernatorial recall elections in american history of California tries to change, not to mention all the local rake recall. Soon. State legislators face recall recollections somewhat regularly in California. My has been tracking local level. We calls are still in the same fiscal School school board, same fiscal in LOS Angeles district attorney's,

It is a fact of life in our for him in one last point, I thought was an interesting on Joshua Spivey, COO Ee, oh tracks recalls for a living, as professor had made the point on the life blood that no part of the reason. Why we're seeing some uptake and the number of recalls, particularly perhaps at the statewide level? So not you know as true of the local ones, Nathaniel mentioned before technology, it's easier to do it, and you know you think too, about like the pandemic and talking about about its role in terms of this recall, coming to fruition. It's hard to imagine you know. Without this online disorient we ve been living in that it has the same. You know uptake among voters who may be felt disillusioned and stayed, and I wonder you know this is a broader point but resistance politics in Europe.

Writ large. You know how to recall elections factor into that as a kind of forbearance breaks down between the two parties and people are increasingly unwilling to accept governance by their opponents. Ah, you I think that that could be a reason for why recalls have have increased in recent years as well. Actually, A shout to my own work wrote a piece two years ago now long time ago about the increasing, because at the time there were five active attempts to recall governors in the in the country, and I was taking a look at why that was an obviously one of them came true. The software to keep tracking somebody else were traveling receiving is to other elections. That also happened tonight. So, as we imagine on Mondays Park Ass, there were mayors

our actions, primarily elections in Boston and Cleveland. What were the result? Yes, so in Cleveland Justin Bieber, a nonprofit executive came in first place with twenty seven percent and City Council President Kevin Kelly came in Sight place with nineteen percent. Those two will go on to face each other in a run off in November. This will be a pretty arm kind of a race contrasts bid is a progressive candidate. He did better than I was expecting. At least an DOM Kelly is is endorsed by the outgoing mare he's Morristown. Flavoured, so that could be an interesting race and Boston and actually have another kind of contrasting race set up on the two candidates who advanced were Michel whoo hoo, his progressive city, counselor, endorsed

I was with Warren and then Anita say be George, who is a more moderate council member? She was she had of his very closely aligned with former Marty. Walsh is now part of binds cabinet and she has ten of famously in Boston, at least resisted reallocating funds away from the police department arms. He could see a pretty strong and perhaps nationalized gonna progressive this modern race there as well, and that run off will also be in November, the aiming inherently rent, their particular was happening in Boston cause. I know Cleveland, it could have been more of an open question heading internet tonight, I'm listening is Jamie, who spend the acting mayor. Didn't do better, considering poles going into the race had shown that she had pretty high approval for the job she was doing and as your time earlier. You know with new some, even though his approval, actually a little bit lower than what it looks like. The recall vote will have been in the end, but benefited

out seem to work for Janey, and I know you know Nathaniel earlier this week, you'd made strong points around both ruined Safie George, in terms of their candidacies. but have not followed the race as closely. I guess, I'm a little surprised by that looks like Bostonians. Just didn't treat Jamie isn't comment because she had a suited to the office, be when Walsh resigned, and so he added, I just didn't, give her know that boost at all right. Well, it looks like we are going to have two more progressive forces. Establishment contest in big american Citys to track in the coming months

so we will see what happens but for now. Thank you, my answer. To get some sleep, you doing you and feeling my name is gallantry. Twenty chow isn't a virtual control room you get in touch right, uniting us upon a concept for the dark com you can also forced. We did us with any questions comments. If your friend of the show leave us a reading or view in the apple pie costs Porthos someone about us thanks for listening and we will see her