Who hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics pie cast. I'm dealing droop, the double Senate run off in Georgia are a month away, and this week we launched are pulling averages of the two races. There's been limited pulling, but what we do have shows both raises neck and neck. Now as a backdrop to that President Trump is continuing to? Falsely claim that the georgian November election was rigged and some trumps supporters have even encourage Republicans to boycott the January that election as a result will dig into the state that raised today were also going to ask why Trump did in fact lose the twenty twenty election and can there's some of the challenges facing the Republican Party going forward. Last week we discussed why Biden and die. Ballad Democrats in particular may have underperformed expectations in Dover.

On the other hand, over the past thirty years, Republicans have now lost the presidency, five out of eight elections and lost the popular vote in all, but one of those elections and, of course they are still in the minority in the house. This year, you will need to discuss, is editor in Chief need silver. He ate Egeland Also hear me is senior politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior, hey Perry is Eagle likewise and before go any further and dive in two topics. I want to have things over to need for some news and update. Neat has gone yet, so you should therefore be.

who won the podcast. Today there are three as Claire discussed on her twitter feed. Claire was laid off by ABC News late last week. Sometimes it seems like a podcast. Is you know, friends talking with another, I mean we really are friends, see you really have that vibe going back and forth. She really provides a reality check thing. First, the rest of us and she does died with her wonderful journalism. Two number two: if you're an editor or publisher out there, please hire Clara, should a great job for five hundred and thirty eight. I'm sure she's going to do amazing things at whichever outlet is lucky enough to have her next number. Three. I don't want to get too inside baseball, but I was pretty sad and upset when I heard the news

it's not it's something that I was given a choice over. It's not a choice I would have made before is like a bit of a silver lining. We are looking to find ways to keep Clare on the pie cast in some form. I don't know exactly what form that would take. That's gonna, be up, to her and up to the people that we worked out or not. But yet at all the complicated in mostly bad news that I have for people yeah well, thank you for sharing all that and I'll say. I hope things work out have enjoyed working with clear for the past five years and the reality is that this point I don't know what's going to happen next, but either way I'll be working. My tail off, as I'm sure you guys well as well to be giving our listeners the best podcast. We can- and I hope that includes Clare and will see what happens spent five years. It has been five whole years she's as having the first

we give January is are official fifth anniversary. You know you guys had those live ones did did you did and twenty sixteen, I think maybe you want to work here than part of like before you out with those Harry and you do- you live ones around the country- and it goes one in Dc. Members want to Chicago or New York, really within one in these data, a huge crowd was followed. I saw a lot of friends who unseen all of whom in Georgia, as has been a great pot gas unclear as in a big part of us. I hope she continues enthusiastic about you know where we're going home. will submitter podcast? Better pack has with you to how many really added alot of Meda conversations better and I hope will be able to have some live Those may be late next year, Post vaccines in that's something I miss. I missed the live audiences yeah for sure and we never audience again. I know that this will be blow when you hear it or if you have already heard it know that we feel similar way and nonetheless I want you really to know that were dedicated to

giving you evidence, base data driven analysis journalism in this podcast feed we're we're working heart. So I hope that regardless of any bad feelings at this point in time, people stick around and give us a chance. You know, but anyway, with all of that, I want to dive into today's podcast, as I mentioned at the top, are we talking about the Georgia run off elections and also some of the challenges facing the GEO P Electoral early in combat into the conversation we had last week about the challenges facing the Democratic Party. So Georgia when it comes to the run off elections there, according to our averages, John US off and David produce are essentially tight. I think there's separated by a third of a point. Raphael Warnock is leading Kelly Leffler by two points, but again, especially at this point, with limited pull people, should certainly view that, as a tie, we are reading this off talking about pulling averages in the wake of and alive.

In that rightly or wrongly, it perhaps dissuaded people from paying attention to the poles. They of course underestimated. Republicans in November, in some states, more than in other states Do we see any reason to second guess the pulling at this point in time in the Georgia runoff elections? Whether couple things here number one. It's some kind of early in this run off. We have almost a month ago so and sometimes races gravitate toward the fundamentals only late in the race and so its low early. For me, that's examine the pole is inherently hard to believe that these raises are close. Shouldn't be really we had a general election just a month ago, and that was very close in Georgia, both for the presidency, which, by more than any in the Senate, since you would ordinarily expect that, in a like, mid term type environment that there's a backlash against the incumbent power

except Biden, hasn't become president yet and Trump is trying to make. You forget that by won the election and will become president, and so that might be short circuiting some of the normal processes. Writer, you don't have any checks and balances argument that you might you have in Leffler M per due to fairly problematic candidates. Leffler ran very far too right in the first stage of this. She has an appointed, An unelected incumbent, appointed comments, tempted not carry the protections. Regular incumbents Purdue, meanwhile, as well as other, have both been and if a deserter implicated, maybe two strong, but like their questions about a lot of sock trades have made while members of the USA and whether those are above board or not. So it's not the perfect circumstances for the GNP and George as increasingly purple.

I suppose I debated so probably bet on Republicans, especially in that leffler race. It wouldn't completely shocked me giving up listen if you had a one one split, so I till they disappear close raise. I expect most poles be in the margin of error. I expected a beer to three points, but I think I think the beginning this like you, when we do this a few weeks ago, like if you as a hundred political reporters, who's gonna, win, I think eighty them would say the Republicans are going to end both races and maybe for them with say that democratically bought raises. Then you might have a few people who differ one, What would I think the expectation is the Republicans wind both raises, and even at the pole, image and unity has Warnock slowly of leffler would have you. I would expect going into it that you know Leffler winds, that's what I'm as a base.

mild this because Biden, one George of Georgia, most races are one by republican still, according to the appalling that we have seen. What is the expectation about what turn out will look like in January I mean most. Poles are as explicit about saying we expect turn out to be. Experts sent a registered voters. I shall save the Poland was seen as from not the traditional outlets rate, which might reveal more nations kind of a lot of internet, pollsters and stuff and IBM pollsters amid it simply asking to be pretty high, usually that much money is being spent, then that's a sign.

people obviously are. I think, aware of the stakes in selection at us. Internet would be like somewhere between a mid term, their turnover signed a mid term and georgian when eighteen in the presidential election may be halfway between, but that's not from poles. My guess it looked like. According to one survey, USA Paul that came out of the Senate races there, they expected a drop off in Republican turn out more than they expected a drop off in democratic turn out. I guess what is that, based on that, based on simply pole, respondents or how they are modeling, the kinds of voters that make up the two coalitions. At this point I mean, if you have upscale suburban motors voting democratic now me near the people, who tend to turn out more regularly and

Others are relying internet from poorer, more working class rural whites. They may not turn out with truck down the ballot and that's the big fear for them publicly. That thing is, if you don't get that will turn out and their husbands and housewives of Atlanta do turn Then they, maybe you have a problem Someone has always been the turn out. You know in these run, ass means as a huge drop off in black voters, and that means that in a Georgia race in low busy voters are often minorities, and that means in juvenile parleying desk of either the Democrat. I don't think we know that this year in part, because the operant on voters are moving. Little blue is a huge, organizing around black voters as a black handed running in worn out. So I m thinking the weed. We don't really know the turnout. Is we don't know who wields rob? I assume that there will be less than today, but I dont think we know who's going to turn out. Well.

therefore we don't really know anything sawdust, whilst the return of the level yeah and it's worth emphasising here, that there is no precedent for them because we ve never had a dual Senate runoff elections in Georgia that not only will determine who would sit in those two sea, but also who would control the Senate period, and so this is going to become an extremely nationalized and expensive. Ray is that you can make comparisons to two thousand two thousand nine or past run off elections, but you're simply not going to able to find an actual precedents for this kind of dynamic. So, yes, to a certain extent, we can't rely on history or historical data for trying to forecast what this could look like and we have five. Thirty are not forecasting selection. We have the pulling average which people can now see on the site. That, of course, is not a forecast,

when people do look at that, pulling average they'll see when I mentioned earlier on, which is that it looks like war not has a little bit more of an edge over leffler, whereas that us off Purdue race is truly tied and of course varied. You also mention- and now you mentioned as well- that there's some chance, but there's a one one split: what's going on there, why might Warnock have an edge where all soft does? well, I'm not sure to have worn actresses. I saw so much as Leffler versus Purdue, traditionally elected incumbents, outperform non incumbents or appointed incumbents. Again, Leffler running to become one. Did it, people in the run off with against both Warnock, as well as budget Republicans, getting used to Doug Collins really trying to get one of those right and really appeal to them well that we're not the Republicans, busily jiffy primary and

Voters may have in their heads memories of her ads and I'm more conservative than until the hum and stuff like that. I think Leffler is you know, maybe not a fantastic debater watching clips of her debate. Although Purdue did not debate and all so. I supposed an empty podium appointed incumbents the winner is on their own. In fact, I don't think he's ever. Electoral, let me to have worn across the Eu Budget- will have never won an election except for David Produce, but that can be one reason why you would see us, but they also have different demographic

here too, the candidates right if people are sexist, people are racist at their anti semitic. They may have different reactions that these different combinations of candidates takes a decision. Other obvious differences, I ought to say, simply produce an encumbrance. I think that's an evangelist may get it, and I also thank all the calls that I see you have produced doing better than leffler, so I sort of assume that either for doing less, look at the exact same number of votes or produce slightly more the case were left. Leg is more than four. Do would be surprising, if only because of all elements, the data we have do not suggest that so far, that was also the case in the actual November election right. If you added up all the republican votes, verses of the democratic votes produce did better than my flower. One forty nine point, seven or something in the combined total for leffler. The Republicans was less than forty.

Mine is generally think produce been a hit better and report really really came, plus the winning Legend day. So this ten of my assumption is that he's probably better position. There's a hiccup here for Republicans, which we mentioned earlier on attorney and Trump supporter been word, suggested that Republicans boycott the election in response to trumps. False claims that November election was rigged, would set out a rally quote. Would you go back and vote in another rigged elections prompting cheers from the audience, according to reporting from political trump, has told Linwood to knock it off and of course, there's a lot of money being spent trying to turn out Republicans out? Of course, Democrats as well on January fifth, is there a reason to believe that this could have an impact on turn out and in addition to just that, suggestion from Lynn

What the apparent civil war going on right now between Republicans who want Georgia Republicans to do more to try to overturn the election and that state and actual Georgia Republicans who are saying now. I don't think so. This is an interesting story that slow. But due to their publicans, are really trashing the Secretary of State a lot as he's been very emphatic, the Trump laws to these are abolished and do So there is a republican divide in the stable. This is like a hugely important election of your republican voter. Your choices to stay home and potentially give Joe Biden calmly Harris Trifecta, I downloaded it Any luck. These raised her so close that I guess, if maybe fifteen thousand people words words this enough, so I wouldn't dismissing erase the clothes, but I didn't think these things are going to be much less important than what the forecast. It's our joint nine always a factor. I think this is like it is an important race where people's partisanship

so that their leanings idolize room much more to this than these sort of, like Inter Party fights, probably or more reticent in the media, leads then with regular votes yeah, I mean little things can matter. It was in November in its close, an appalling. So if you have a monopoly like ass, if if if you lose. This run us by one point, then, Lynn way will not be very popular man. Among Republicans, I don't think what some other contacts here is that present drug has been saying for five years. The american elections are rigged and there was ragged republican turn out in November, so it seems like, even if that is one of the messages, it doesn't necessarily dissuade people voting again, you mentioned small numbers. Do we know what the small numbers of people may be from the polling who believe that the elections are truly rigged and that their vote actually might not matter versus just

the partisan position of oh yeah. Well, I want to try to win so I'm just going to say like yes, Trump should have one, and the election was right. I mean idle y know how you would see that an appalling causes you people who wouldn't turn and ass you see, I mean there is some polling suggest that turn out will be worse. The gnp in the run off then in the regular election, which could mean a few things that could be this thing about There are worried about their votes being counted. It could be that the demographics set turnout for after more democratic or could be that the poles are wrong? I mean this many you're, though, to write. The electoral college certifies the vote on December fourteenth so that soon that less than we can today, the run off his health is at dinner. some other point. Trump may still be Clem, yet Congress has to overturn the results or something like that raise it won't be over

we're all over, but the environment might be different, saw we'll see right in terms of people coming to terms with the fact that this is actually an election that will decide whether or not Democrats have a try factor. I did see some polling from Pew. That said, you know, while a majority in some poles of Republicans are saying that the election was rigged, that NATO trust the integrity of the election. Seventy two percent of Trump voters said that they were confident that their vote was accurately counted and ninety three percent said voting was easy for them, so there could also be a difference between how voters are viewing their intervene.

experience with voting and a kind of macro message of you know something is fishy here. I don't trust this election because it didn't result in what I wanted and also of the leader of the Republican Party, is encouraging or discouraging people from trusting the integrity of the electric. So I guess some complicated for on voters there and in this election we will find out how much and in what ways the shapes their views at this moment in time. How are Georgia Republicans responding to them? president and his allies were putting pressure on them to essentially try to overturn the result of the November elections there. There's so that rejecting it rank in the government pretty clear that he's not going to get involved in turn overtime, The results, I think the using part of this is a little bit like I'm gonna raising race him a little conspiratorial? But I just worth saying: is this secretary

stayed in. The governor of Georgia have had a use, a lot of political capital to defend the idea that Trump lost in this election happen thought you're, not in Alsace, Vall finisher head. Can you imagine the pressure they're going to be under two, not certify maker. I mean that's. The thing is like I'm questioning now can worn often also actually be declared the winners. This electioneering it's a real question like we'll Brian care, because, while doing their duty after win by a lot Do you know more than one person? Is a real question right now like they have to use a lot of political capital disorder tell the president is shut up. Essentially is this a year or left lurk or do boating irregular disparities? Again, there's gonna be a challenging issue. I recommend that if you do have a dispute,

then the procedures for resolving it are in some ways more straightforward and for a presidential election. There's an electoral college and said the Senate is ultimately the judge of elections to its chamber to the Senate. So the question would kind do may become down to what do like LISA, Rakowski, Mitt, Romney, think and Susan. hours and lesser about what brain kept us? Ok, so election integrity as prevention is certainly an issue in this election itself Trump and has grievances surrounding the result of the November elections, also an issue? What are the other things that this Senate races being waged round were still in the middle of a deadly pandemic? In fact, perhaps the worst months of the pandemic congresses debating more pandemic related economic relief. This is also a red state that is becoming more polish, so others, men election integrity. One of the issues on which this

grace, is being waged. So the new terms at a good story today, Jarvan Martin, instead Herndon sort of emphasising the Republicans, are really focused on Warnock, as opposed to us off and the really attacking worn out on his sermons. He's somebody liberal things about Rachel issues. Do you know he was a pastor for a long time and that's a lot of materials uses? Are there really focus on him more than us off into the castle him? As a radical, I mean? There's a ratio. Part of this obviously is well using him is the turn out, so I think, in a certain way, lay a lot of times in the south, you see the Democrats run, they bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, older white, moderate christian man, Canada. Now, in this ratio Georgiana establishment has not elected US officer, thirty three year old jewish man, whose pretty liberal and We're not as a black pastors pretty liberal, and neither one of them are politically censure. Is that any sort of policy way so I think

same way. The Stacey Abrams turn of an unusual Canada for Georgia. Can these two people win soon reach the end of the day, there are some swing voters in every day. I would argue there are some swing. in Georgia is notable Bite indeed run slightly ahead of us. in war, nor in maybe there's some voters who would prefer a less pleasant and is like can worn out I, like a light convincing swing. Voters always buy The real feature in a way it they're nuts. I think it's almost like the issues are less important. Then is there a certain, We voted at once a certain time do democratic, binding. Bodies and otherwise, although for Republican, the I've got to get my, I know Trump was in Georgia over this past weekend for a rally to expect bite in and if not, which kinds of Democrats will be campaigning in Georgia. On their behalf, I mean Biden, one say so: I don't know it concerns ruin, covert our, but you think he'd be an asset.

right. I mean if you're asking people to vote for two centres, you're going to help Biden get much more of his agenda enacted and Biden isn't showing his face. The state then probably gonna lose those races. Anyway, ripe Obama has been there twice and they won. I think they wanted to kill another time in he didn't So rarely last week I think he's gonna go down there in person, so the issue of the campaigns have decided to do door. Your canvassing there. You know, even though turnout was actually really high. Democrat, still think that they should do more door to door canvassing and then not going to. Georgia rose much because of Covid nineteen of mistake, and the Georgia Democrats think did black voters. We will be more engaged, more turn on higher numbers. If there's more Georgia campuses, I think there is more in person campaigning happening in Georgia them, maybe in other states pre like Sunday and I think you'll have probably have and Obama in I'm guessing a bite and imprison events. I would assume com. Ass, my go and Stacy Abrams is very

involved there she's on the ground of his wishes to an almost a third candidate there as we speak. What about on the reply? inside trump has already been done, as I mentioned, I was talking with. An cells are actually last week about polling and what motivated republican voters, and essentially it was like Trump and when she would ask republican voters about any other Republicans, they are interested in or what issues are you interested in? It was all trumps priorities and they had difficulty naming other Republicans that really motivated that. So how does the Republican Party straddle that here, as you just gotta, be Trump going down there on a regular basis, trying to turn out other Republicans. You can really engage with republican voters in the way that trunk can part of the problem of how to contact as they don't have any equivalent to o bomber

previous road and president before Trump George W Bush number one. I was gonna repudiated by Trump in a jiffy primary into an esteemed, never to other his post election popularity has improved a lot suited office being very unpopular and the reason Bush, I think, has become more problems because he has been very clearly staying out of politics, except for the occasional event with other former presidents, but there are no popular living lookin President's Rubio went there hence is going. I think I vigorously all the twenty twenty four potential republicans go down. so we'll they draw out of turn out. I doubt it We do that or do they matter then much, but I think that in general, for both parties negative points- since you there's almost all the work for turn. I dont think you actually need to hurry maybe next April, but I think the georgian people, because we find because

in Alsace and binding common, whereas will take her the voter turnout for them to that's an important point there as well. Where are you getting into the conversation about the challenges that Republicans face? So, let's dig into it formerly, but first today's podcast is brought you buy Casper Mattress, we ve all heard of Casper. You know the sleep company, that regionally comfortable products at not so outrageous, prices from award winning mattresses to pillows sheets and do vase Casper transforms the way we sleep once news at a time. Every Casper Madras is designed with a system to react and adapt to your body all night long inside precisely one thousand five hundred one perforations create a cooling system so effective. You won't be awake to notice only cast Mattresses are made with eighty six supportive gel pods to align your spine and eliminate aches and pains altogether it's the cooling support of comfort. You need for the most refreshed feeling, come

and now, with zero percent, a pr financing options, it even easier to try a casper, mattress, good casper, dot com and use code. Five. Three, for one hundred dollars off your mattress order that code, five, three eight one hundred dollars off your mattress order terms in Kenya, and supply see casper dot com, slash terms, today's podcast is brought. You buy you travel eighty million men and women in the. U S experience thinning hair, yet it still not really openly talked about which can make going through. It feel scary or stressful, and not just adds to the problem. In a time when self care is more important than ever, every day is an opportunity to skip damaging styling tools and chemicals and focus on better higher growth from within visit, neutral dot com and take their hair wellness quiz for customize product recommendations that the power to grow stickers, stronger, a hare in your hands when you subscribe, you'll receive monthly delivery is so you never miss a dose. Shipping is free and you can pause or cancel any time in clinic

studies, Nutrafol user of sauce, thicker, stronger hair growth with less shedding in three to six months in grow, thicker, healthier hair by going to nutrafol dot com and using promo code of five hundred and thirty eight to get twelve sent off their best offer anywhere. Twenty percent off at neutral dot com spelled an? U T, r, a f, o l, dot com, promo code, five, three eight for hair, a strong is you are last week we talked about some of the electoral challenges facing Democrats partake. Early in the Senate and instead legislatures in an election in which bite in one the national popular vote. By four points, they will at best be able to tie Republicans in the Senate, but Republicans also face notable toil challenges. They ve won the national popular vote only once in thirty years, and President Trump, who has been historically popular with Republicans, suffered a rare of loss as

incumbent. They also faced historic losses in the mid terms and they will remain in the minority in the house, so this can be a broad conversation in it, but I want to start off with the most obvious question, which is now that we ve got a month to sort through all of the data. Why did President Trump lose the election in twenty? Twenty? Not a simple question and there may be many answers, but I'm curious how you think about Republicans lost at the top of the ticket. This cycle troop loss because Democrats had a broader cold I guess it's kind of tautological by if you're winning a lot majority a black voters ACE,

all our majority, smaller and declining majority, but still a majority of hispanic, an asian voters. If you're winning white voters in cities and middle too high income suburbs, then that's basically enough. It's enough to win the popular by four and a half per cent enough to win three hundred and six whatever it was electoral. It's, not that much more than enough, but its if I seem to have a pretty big winning the popular vote in aid, just solid enough margin, electoral college. Ok! So that's what the coalition looks like, but of course the parties are, you know, have their policies and have their strategies and our talking to voters in a certain way and they weren't just like centre earth where these set coalition they get to make choices about what Verde allegations look like so deeper than just describing what the coalitions are. What's responsible for how those coalitions? Look at that

publicans have a minority coalition. I mean for one thing, I think Trump defines his friend republicanism in a very oppositional tional way right. We are opposed to elites. The choir part were opposed to people and kind of inherently grievance. Politics tend to be minority, Terry it's hard to run a campaign. The notion that we're power, and these are we kind of control, everything if you have majority I mean you gonna have to be on it outside. Looking in, to some extent in trumped I said: get off that many thing to. Is that, because Republicans have this advantage in electoral college, a big advantage send it even more the electoral college, a smaller advantage in the house. because of gerrymandering left over from twenty ten. They don't have to have a particularly broad color

and they can we not of elections with forty seven and forty eight percent and pass things and are fairly unpopular and nominates judges that are pretty far to the right and win with forty seven and forty percent allow the time in national elections basically, and if you believe that politics are reasonably efficient, then that's equilibrium, but us what you get to a point where used to winning parties with a minority, but unless the majority of voters, then you gonna get out of the habit of speaking to broader segment of voters, I think you know I mean trump. Isn't it really even exactly try to appeal What side is base I mean now, and then he make some efforts at it, but, like the best believes, if you turn up your bass, you can win which actually turn at your base. You probably can't with me, can come close. I think it's kind of a lesson in some ways of when you twenty and twenty sixteen, I would argue the Democrats. We believe too hard. This idea that were the case

cosmic, you white people. urban areas and people of color- and you can win that way and worthy party of the future, the what is Brown's think at the cost of these worsening ruin so that raised showed the air. that way in its from one white voters that degrees by huge margin. Doesn't it? voters are represented in states like Wisconsin, and this again in this house wants What are you did the last four years from sort of over? Did that to some extent he kept that base pretty much and gain a little bit in terms of those voters, but mainly with Biden did was he really? did well in the suburbs. His name is saying: politically suburbs anymore, income Serbs at a closer they said, Cities are problematic, as was basically trot Well, in the non of the Non Pittsburgh areas of Pennsylvania, but

lost those suburbs close into Pittsburgh and Philadelphia by a lot more than sixteen. And if you look at Atlanta same kind of story, the suburbs you lost by too much- and I think I think it's a waste he sort of appealing to without degrees are forty percent, the elected as a huge block, but you can't win with with only them and because the majority of the borders the Germans either you over did get based strategy too much. It almost word this sort of needed to not bleed so many Republicans and some people who are wait in suburban in and around city over did. It is what I would say in a certain way. So in this election, what did the republican coalition look? Like? You said he won the vast majority of Non college, educated white voters who argued block and get something like thirty percent of the electorate, is college, educated, white voters and then the rest is non white voters, black hispanic Asian, largely a native American. You also mentioned that they didn't proof somewhat way

hispanic an asian voters. What does the coalition look like right now that losing coalition yeah me? It is prudent. currently a working class coalition, workers kind of long term right, but a white voters, and increasingly also it Ass? Many can maybe some asian voters without at college degree, that's mostly what the GNP has become under Trump, and that coalition actually has a fair amount of electoral power. Amy lacking cultural power because it's o represented in swing, stated very represented in the Senate, and so, if you're gonna pick a coalition to have, then that's efficient one to have kind of like totally speaking in twenty sixteen Klett, her gains welt him to a bomb or her more often place where she lost less groundwater to abolish is about abandoning that. Never

we're in very educated places. I haven't looked this year with with education or income. It was a big driver but clearly placed their corn and quote well off, have high. So economic status as those categories overlap, tend to be more democratic owing communities tend to be more democratic right, it used to be. If you went back to the eighteen, ABC no Reagan would say we're. Winning set of, why I must all the fastest growing counties in America right now soon the fast growing places are these myths. I spent two areas: the sunbelt are becoming much bluer in part because you have people Movement approach, the country have quite diverse suburbs and a lot of cases so do not devalued and voters to need twenty that he's looking for twenty sixteen it and Gideon basement we know were promised It must be like sixty percent a Trump voters are

non college. Whites. Twenty five percent are college white, something like fifty percent are people of color and the democratic cause you something like sixty percent white, twenty percent black twelve percent. We see no eight percent asian, something like that and then in the democratic he's, probably more college them College was a close thirty. Thirty. That gives you a sense of one does not be eighty virus in white. One is like sixty sixty five percent. Why and as I was alluding to earlier on the parties, make decisions that lead to those kinds of coalitions, and so are there particularly popular war, unpopular positions or messages that the Republican Party has taken that has given them this minority coalition, while it may be efficient, locked orally that will provide

then from perhaps winning of the national popular vote and make it often hard for them to? Maybe, even when the electoral college line you of this is that the republican parties problem with people of color as it is broadly leslie? He known blockers. Dignity is racially related, but I think more about their economic policy. They give you look like getting rid of Obamacare cutting Medicaid funds, those kinds of things. Most surveys don't suggest you know Blancos nobody's alike, Wanna do Medicare of raw. But they're not particularly libertarian or anti government, is such incident If you look at the Republicans who do well liked among minority but the Larry, Huggins, and so on, I tend to think is necessary Rachel issues, I wonder of like an economics that is more positive, might be helpful. Verbal distributed to poor people might help them with nor those on either hand. I for these White College voters they lost recently trot. I do think that might be about the resolution is where the white collar

voters who maybe dont mine, Mitt Romney economic power, please do mine, shrub, sounding fruit or on racial issues. Words like I'm, not shock bids from may be small games with black latina voters, because I dont think those voters are motivated by racial issues. The way that we would have had been in the media contours, but I do think, he may be lost the election on racial issues because white people don't like how he speaks about them, and is that part of his actual success in two thousand? Sixteen, in the sense that, like he, took actual republican orthodoxy on social security, and medical care and threw it out the window and basically sad, I'm down to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure and gave up really on deficit reduction. Is that

I'm populism issue what has boosted the republican standing with non college? Educated voters, no one. I think people are that one key. The economy was pretty good for the first three. Years under Trump and orders came on credit to terms for the economy, you had a huge hit because of covered. Obviously, but you had a pretty healthy recovery by the third quarter. So I'm sure it was economic populism, so much as the actual it me delivered for voters, and if you ask people poles, how are you doing about four years ago, a lot of people said that, oh I'm, better off I think. I'm a lobby Nelson actually gets it almost a hundred. Greece reverse from what actually happened. What I was going to those in sixteen like he had done when before he could be credited with a good economy.

I mean, I think he was actually viewed by a fair number of voters being fairly moderate in twenty sixteen, something which is not true this time around as much so it's like all here so moderate, pragmatic northeastern, public in. I think there are voters you shouldn't have bought that, but who bought into that idea that you Donald Trump as a reality, tv star, he wasn't a typical Mitt, Romney, Paul Ryan, stuffed suit. Republican and therefore was a different kind of flavour than they were used to,

maybe not as much then there s another two who like the racial populism and the easing of OPEC Populism too, but like I, don't necessarily give economic populism per se that much credit for trumped success, so spinning this forward. To some extent you know after two thousand twelve, the Republican Party had this famous postmortem, where basically, the quote was that voters of color don't think that the party likes them are, wants them in the country

going forward. The Republican Party had to be more open to voters have collar. That was not really the strategy that President Tromp took, although he may have been more successful, at least in twenty twenty, where the voters of color than Mitt Romney ever was he's taken or public party down a different path. It still a path where they have a minority of voters, at least right now and even in two thousand. Sixteen, but again the national popular vote doesn't matter. Why could the Republican Party due to go, itself a better chance of winning a majority to me, it's like you or racist means. Fewer medicate goods is not complicated, but I dont know if this were. The party is right now, and I don't know, I don't know that that tend to voice when win the primary, but I do think

I'm not sure what wrong services economic agenda is, but I think that that not its focus on the sort of medical cuts in that part of this sort of austerity part. There would probably have only just hard to imagine a republic in winning a majority of the voting hard to imagine a Republican who didn't win the majority of votes, winning the primary. The question is becoming even have to run for President Fox NEWS. Conservativism then, yes, you're in trouble, If you can run something else, you can probably make California Tibetan, even as long as you don't run on boxing's republicanism, but I dont know how you change, because I mean there are four: sober said on Fox NEWS. Robin This was know why you would Noise, your base to go for fifty one percent of things that they don't like that much it's kind of funny that, like the out of you, asked the girl about like working the GNP due to win a majority and like both voltairean, I kind of pregnant pause

seems like its Niven, like really up fur. Consider Asian behaviors trade only care to that much yeah? I really need to I suppose, right. If Joe Biden has really tough first term, then parties can win broad anti incumbent majorities. At times I get a card to point to any single. individual Republican has been out here. She is the model of what this would look like. You know me, be Nicky. Hayley here are some body like out potentially but, like, I think, Republicans think kind ever came. What have you have someone who is two thirds of the way to Trump but a little bit more presentable, I kind of wonder if it might need to be the rivers riding habit. His teeth the way to being presentable but is smart about the right. God whistle issues, furred trump vote,

sir? I don't know it's tricky because there is some real underlying tensions there I mean its trump sui generis in his ability to turn out the republican base. So that's a question and carries by looking at the election returns. Is the Vienna is huge turn out so one thing: used about is Mitt. Romney did lose in trouble is one. What's so does tromp driver turn out with his people, but also turn off some people who would otherwise be Republicans so in a twenty twenty four election, it there's a more normal republican. Let's say Mickey Hayley. Is there not drop off from the from people does she loses ground even if she's slightly more popular with the college educated white person, the suburbs they didn't answer the question might be yes. So, therefore, I think it's not easy for me to stay like laws and it wasn't a close did. Mitt Romney lost.

It also wasn't their close and unnecessary trump way is worse than the meat Romney. What it's like, there's a catch. Twenty two in that trunk can drive turn out amongst the base or amongst Non College, educated whiter, rural white to a point that is really important in making Republicans when elections mean, while he's turned off another part of the legacy Republican Party, that now helps Democrats when elections. What are republicans do about this catch? Twenty two one thing you can say that the Trump Coalition is it. It seems too often. G a fairly high floor. There are gonna win all these Red state Senate seeds, almost always that gives them a high floor if you do even half way, ok in competitive centre races and you usually maintain control of the Senate, the Gunnar regain control of the district process and a few more states this year, so that will help give him a few more seats.

when does a new round of different thing and gerrymandering, so they can have half a loaf with Trump and it's hard to throw a half a loaf for uncertainty. Even if you might wind up with a full notification. And also the incentives where, if Trump for the time being, is still very popular with GNP, voters and Trump demon, eyes. I use any Republican who tries to defy tromp than it was kind of like Mitt Romney or someone who has their own very strong base of popularity or your letter

governor, like Larry Huggin, who relies on support from democratic welfare headlines, then it's actually kind of tricky. So what does the future of the Republican Party look like both in terms of who its leaders may be and who its voters are? It is becoming, alas, White Party did in twenty. Twenty does not continue to be the case. Are there things if they could do to encourage that to be the case periods out of like you are suggesting economic populism might be one way. What does that future? Look like? It was a hard question in part, because I sort of like candidates create the coalition more than parties. Do I give you told me in twenty six teeming with it

employers and looks like I guess, the Biden thing is not shocking- that they won suburban whites and that's not shocking. I don't think he was immediately obvious. I would have said the Miller Joe Biden. Our shared brown will be democratic nominee in they'll. win by pursuing in more white working class voters and doing it that way. I didn't think Joe Biden would be the upscale. Why voters persons out in wrong about that. So if Donald Trump means of running again to me, like that it may, case that I mean I don't know, the Republicans plans do like this well my any date, but maybe now they know there's this Part of the majority population, is eel stock by the democratic method excited by them. If they sort of hold down. On that I mean, if you do well in, like Detroit Philadelphia, etc. I can And maybe your trunk, you run with TIM Scott. You do something different tromp was a lot.

focus on immigration and asking Latinos in twenty twenty compared to twenty six what about in the run in the twenty seventeen. I need a lot of that, but in the actual election, less than that, so I almost wonder is the coalition. If it's a Trump or Desantis, do they? Let us go with the ok. There are more minorities and we may be thought who are open to this unless build their lives, Soon woke white people are gone to us, illustrated the try to do a little bit of ratio Leave what I'm saying totally, but it's like if you look at its hers isn they should do. I mean I think if the GNP did some actual economic populism, it would be interesting. I dont think opposition

to abolish care. Are the failure to offer any coherent alternative to about my care? Helps a geo, be one bit electoral law, for example? I'm not sure if cutting corporate tax rates helps that much electoral, they may be an excites their base, a fair bit, so that a be interesting but any kind of an entire position from the Mcconnell Ryan Wing of the GNP alot of the centres are still fiscal consumers first, I think other have some service. Second, so what a true populism would look like? I don't know I mean. I do think that I yes question earlier. My hunch is tromp is somewhat sui generis. The hazy that word as that, like such a man of people, travelling up on a line words the first swede generous and at the first attempts to like detractors without Trump may, not succeed. Very much, and I think Tom Cotton is likely to become press for example, but we'll see I mean obviously one is what Trump himself wants to do if he wants to run

this kind of play, a large role in plain kingmaker versus sitting on the sidelines entirely. I mean we still don't know something like it. It's not likely but like. I think there is some chance that, like once trumpet cylinder president that he gradually declines in relevance in the same sense that, like Sarah Palin for me, a huge figure to being a pretty obscure figure, trampled go from being the singular figure in american politics to a still pretty important figure, but if doesn't have the powers of the presidency and where three years out from the GNP primary really getting under way, I had something people might tune amount to some extent and it somewhere

I feel like old news and when a kind of sinks in that is actually lost the election, then I don't know. One question I forgot to ask, maybe towards the top, is take this baby with a grain of salt, Broad Pasco. His former campaign manager, who was demoted during the campaign, says that it was the corona virus that lost Trump the election. He should have had more empathy for the situation that Americans were experiencing. We can't say, obviously there are no counterfactual. We only have earth one in the world of elections, but in the absence of the corona virus pandemic his tromp a to term president, what are the arguments for and against that outcome? Well, look. There's two things is the colonel Irishman Imogen there how tramp handled it in general around the world plenty of income and perfectly well under corroded Irish set

that even moderately more competently than Trump did? I mean they sent their issues at the polls, love them so that they may even corona virus related that if more democrats we're home abiding by social distancing or not and we're like the answer phone calls, I am not sure that coded necessarily hurt Trump. All that much I'm not sure that there wasn't some kind of a hidden appeal to like hey enough with these locked out. It's time to get back to work, kind of thing, casino Some of the areas were tempted comparatively well or areas that were hit pretty hard by Tobin. Actually, he Did well in Florida relative to four years ago, Wisconsin constant numbing, he he lost Wisconsin but, relatively speaking, was constant, moved a little bit too. The right relative to the other states. New York City, interestingly, became a bit redder than it

as for years ago, even though the rest of your state became blue worse, if you did in a regression ass, we look at Kobe DES circumvent cases per capita and looked on that at results. I don't think he'd seen much of their relationship, you, maybe if I like it get a relationship we had more of it does something on an all right. We should do that now has actually, but I'm not sure that covered hurt Trump, that much in the end, yeah you do it at the polls me wrong, but Biden was a head the whole time, even in like twenty nine, don't February, Byron versus twelve years ahead by some margin so I guess I like to know what would she have to have done to being ahead of Biden for any polling period ever and I you would have been involved being more calm, saying fewer, racists, things etc and its anything it's like Brad's point is that, if trumpet handle covert differently, if like tromp handled covered the waitress

handles. Everything almost like you ve thought were a different person. Would trouble won the election maybe only if this is not a particularly useful way to think about, in my view, a sort of like well it's from its present look like where he was ahead of Biden, who was a pretty good can, at the whole time. And I think the issue that is like some less focus on Obamacare, repeal and less tweeting and, like you know, needs peace from two thousand? Seventy was the best little advice from whatever get is like just after that it actually be any action that is a more important, significant thing than the tweeting. The outline is comments and the perception that he was racist, I think, is like aid, all of which he could have mitigated, in my view, as opposed to cover it up our aid, while in some sense the picture you painted for successful,

our can future doesnt seem all that complicated. On the other hand, given that the filter through which that future would have to make it is a republican primary which is its own beast and we will watch what some of those republican primaries look like in the coming years, the sense of whether it is possible, but I think we're gonna leave affair. So thank you to all of you, Perry and need for helping us figure out some others. The answers to some of those questions they still thank you. My name is deal under tony chow. Isn't the virtual control room Clare, better Gary Curtis, is on audio editing, you'd get in touch my emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also cause treated us with any questions or comments. If your friend of the show leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, TAT story we're tell someone about us thanks for listening embassies,