Did you ever have to do mavis beacon, teaches typing as a kid think I did I business I'm in seven years, I've ever paid attention to how you type, and you got some work. There is a name. You only use two things on your right hand, what's important not like if you want now, because I'm an even worse tipper, ok, but ok. Wait show me your real deal typing. Well, let's get rid of the microphone. Ok, ok, er! Here we go okay, words per minute type of my god found some really difficult foot after we she plays state. Can her rule there One is just going and wait when he second level,

hello and welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Gail and Rukh, it's over, This I even was a is kind of like using branding. It is a model song, and it is a model. Zadig we're gonna talk about the model, but you are correct that we don't usually publish model talks on mondays and for transparency sake. We recorded this planet cast last week on wednesday, if everything is going according to plan at the moment, I am on vacation. Nay, I don't know where you are many you're in new, where you Galen, I'm in a fire island, surprise not to play the stereotype. hopefully I'm on the beach somewhere right now, not in front of a microphone talking about politics,

So I should say that I know there's a lot going on in the news, particularly for a mid july, there's another generally sixth hearing on thursday, this movement in congress on respect for marriage act and then there, the euro turmoil within and between the two parties. You do I can predict, but There is anything newsworthy or crazy happening in the news right now. I apologize in advance that we are not talking about it. we are there to talk about the model and answers and lessen our questions about politics in general. Neat we in person in studio again feels great feels good the last time we were in studio together. You were just getting ready to go to las Vegas too, compete in the world series of poker yeah? How did go? good thing is that the world series actually consists of lots of different tournament, so you you win, when some, so I won some me not winning in the sense of making a final table. A guy

But winning the sense of decent cash For you, when I was lost more got. You walk away in the red overlying. This is true I'm sorry, but if you I actually most players walk away in the red. Yeah right. That's like how gambling works, No, not that I mean okay, so even even a skilled player will usually have a losing world series because, like all the profit is concentrated in, you know making the top cup percent of a field where you might win hundred thousand dollars than when we happen like every so often right so yeah how much she did the big winner when the big winner of the main event of the world series. When ten million dollars this year neat, could have been me a party that it was a norwegian guy, damn I wanted to let you know that between the last time we recorded a model talk, and now I made my first ever sports bet. Oh my gosh.

who'd. You bet on I'm not really sure. I was watching a strategy, a baseball game. I could, I tell you who was playing, but I realized that a bunch of my friends were on their phones like making that's crazy like real time based on individual pitches, all the stuff- and I was like what are you doing to explain it to me? I was totally unfamiliar with this world, and so I made a bet that the picture was going to strike out. The next batter and he did wow, you wonder how much money I made fifty bucks eight dollars a. I mean eight dollars, ten million dollars, I'm like making my way there you can buy. I think a slice of pizza in new york now free thanks Biden, yeah thanks bye, I'm kidding actually, you can still buy pizza in new york for a dollar. Fifty some things don't change. I wonder about the economics of those places are you saying their friends,

Instead, I wonder about the economics of those places that does a difference. I don't think I said just implied allegedly okay, so we should get to where we're actually here for which has to talk about the model. Nate has a model doing in miami's, it's pretty boring a model come on it. The motto had moved to miami. This is a reference to last model talk for people who are extremely confused right now, it just to hot to do anything, my miami right now, in miami in July. He just sit there and cause I'm not a lunatic okay yeah. So the model is in miami's churn out. I waking up at. One thousand one hundred and thirty right will hanover I think I might have some respect for somerset for the model kind of you know. The model reads: a lot of twitter interpol's eventually goes to the beach at like five for an hour. Something right, oh here all right, then the matter

France, as you want, go to the club miles like now, I'm kind of tired and then it goes to bed pretty early. So it's not very exciting I'm sure it's I mean it's like all the heat. In miami is kind of war? That works works as a metaphor because actually not much has changed in the model since last time. That's what I'm saying is it even on? Is the model even on put into child, why? Why did you back in ok so for the record republicans have an eighty, seven percent chance of winning the house in the delights version of the model and a fifty three percent chance of winning the at it. That's where the model is, but I actually wanted to start off by asking you about a conversation we had on the pot cast last monday. There was another name on the pakistani cone and he was to talk about the new york times Siena college polling now I know the whole point of the model, and bowling average is that we don't focus too much on any one poll. But of course this is a high quality poll and they asked a lot of questions.

As you know, so we talked about it, and so I'm curious from your perspective did that set of pulling from the times back up your understanding of the midterms so far and how the model basically views the mid term so far or were there any things that shook that up No I mean they had numbers we're pretty in line with with the model expects. we're about its last week, are yes now to accept you listening this. I think that people are paying too much attention to Joe Biden, approval number, which is terrible, People are smart enough, believe it or not political pundits, believe it or not voters are smart enough to say, I am unhappy with the direction of Joe Biden's presidency. But that doesn't mean I'm going to miss vote for republicans in congress right. believe it or not. I pressed voters when, quite

you of them say that and poles was that also the case in twenty eight ten or was it a different environment? In twenty team, because eighteen because we did focus a lot on trump's approval rating in twenty eighteen as some sort of indication of where that midterm cycle- was heading yeah, but are we done? I've done the heavy lifting on this right now. I believe I'm just wondering if this is different from past cycles. It's not accept that there's a lot of well. It is in some ways right. One is that you have more intraparty disapproval, democrats and out of psych. A personality thing It is frankly, democrats complain a lot and they are more likely to complain about- their own party than republicans are and so that will manifest themselves and saying I'm unhappy with Joe Biden, because He hasn't been liberal enough. I'm ahead, because of inflation, I'm happy because Joe Biden, because he's too old, those three things which are common complaints

are really warrants to vote for the republican candidate right You wouldn't maybe inflamed, may be more inclined to draw colonel. Has supplier solve inflation? The maybe maybe maybe that is a reason right, The age thing or the creek about Biden has been ineffective or being doing too little in terms of partisan accomplishments right now passing a kind of over promised stuff. I mean it, wouldn't mean that you all the sudden want, like mitch, Mcconnell in charge of the senate. It's interesting to me that you say dumber That's complain more than republicans, and I think in part where you're talking about is the difference in approval rating for Biden and tromp right in that new york times pull seventy percent of democrats approved of the job that Biden was doing, where's threw out there.

in presidency and we saw his approval rating amongst republicans, no matter of sort of when it was Paul was in the high eighties. However, at the same time we see that the sort of quote unquote establishment of the republican party has had a much harder time sort of keeping control of the party than on the democratic I think you know the longtime democratic establishment is still sort of in control, and you also saw in that pulling from the new york times that, while democrats had sort of soured more on Biden than republicans ever did on trump. When asked. Who would you vote for in a potential matchup between Biden and trump trump lost? More republicans, too. Third party or not voting or Biden, then Biden lost to trump so the weird dynamic. We're like yes, Democrats might coordinate, complain more or be more inclined to disapprove of their politicians, but when it comes to vote they seem to get in line

yes, I mean and to be clear, binds also doing really poorly among independence. But this is not a complicated, a story right, you have two parties that are quite unpopular in the united states. If you ask about any one party then people will say I don't like what they're doing or I don't like what the president was party is doing. but if given a choice, then it winds up being pretty close, as most elections have been and I just don't really see I mean this is pretty consistent. Seen, binds approval numbers get worse and worse or the course last few months, and we see the generic you're still ballot and poles of initial house and senate races be pretty steady right, there's not like a clear, trend toward one party or another, and so like The borders are telling us and at some point, if you have some like theoretical section. Oh, you know, the fundamentals determine can say: I've done the actual legwork on this, and that's not really right and be like. It's already been kind of contradicted by by the data

or not we should say. Democrats are in pretty bad shape right, they're going to lose the house. Eighty seven and eight according to our forecast, being bailed out in the senate, because you have three or four republican can It's who, I think, have the potential to underperform and that's that's a big deal. Let's, let's you know that that could cost them a couple of seats at the ought to win quote unquote. I have a question for you, since you said that we shouldn't over emphasize the fundamentals, which is five: thirty. Eight dot com defaults, here, the deluxe model and the delights model shows a significantly better picture for republicans. Yet then, the light model which is based basically solely on pulling in the classic model, brings in some fundamentals. Yet with prototype worked, so the directive not always like cause the intellect, adds? Is these expert forecasts so cook the goal in inside elections and sabena.

crystal ball right hand. They do very good work, but the subjective bert consensus is more down on Democrats than the purely objective indicators. Empirically the subjective, estimates, add value right gone back and looked, and over time the deluxe model performs better in terms of costs sort of more national but hey? You know why not take but like, but if you're looking just at, poles or the poles and the fundamentals then than relatives got themselves in enough trouble in the senate, races that that you know, according to the early objective models there. Actually slight underdogs citys like favorites, okay, we then need. Would you argue that people should pay more attention to the classic model than the docks model? I mean I think we've gone back and forth. I think I'm kind of phase out, I'm just like hey, look

We just want to give you the best forecast and we don't need to be kind of pure about it, but we should probably be talking more about that distinction right cause, that's persisted now for, for you know, for a month now, since the model lingerie- and we did- we got a good number of questions on vest. Have more things to ask you before we dive right into all the listener questions. But let me at least read this one from Brian Brian asks: do you think the expert our overeating, the political climate which is making them more bullish on republicans than they should be. Why default to the deluxe? Is that an indication that you think the deluxe version is likely to be most predictive of november's results? Sir? To that point, do we think that deluxe is likely to be most predictive of november's results. yes, I mean that's otherwise. You wouldn't publish it right because in general you would rather ease purely objective. Indicators until the armies- and you wouldn't do, that is if you gain something accuracy you see the end of the day. We probably have incentives to just be as accurate.

we can and so but yeah. I know I mean the question about like what could they be misreading about? The environment is interesting, but I don't think they realize in some sense, like in some ways. This isn't necessarily business as normal right. You have a president, who is far older than any president However, at least a time of inauguration right, that's a factor that could affect his performance and amuse of him. We you're, saying in that people, don't necessarily see Biden and the democratic party as synonymous in the way they might have with past presidents, because he's so old No, I'm saying that explains, I think. Part of his disapproval is that he seems old and feeble and people

therefore, when officials, he is right to me like abortion policy or some, oh god. I do you expect that over time the forecasts will converge. That's a question from Connor, meaning light classic and deluxe will converge rather time. We got Here a watch and I or might the experts and the monitoring of the area the experts. If their consists, we reading array several in the polls and in theory they might amend that right and might kind of throw up their hands and say: okay. Actually, I concede now that you know pennsylvania is lean democratic or something, for instance. So on the topic of the conventional wisdom and the fundamentals and what history might say versus the polls, one thing that Nate Cohn did bring up on last monday's podcast was his skepticism

about pulls, for example, in the was content senate, raise showing a Democrat leading ron Johnson. I think a recent market law poll showed Mandela barnes, one of the democratic contenders leading run johnson by two points, and he seemed to suggest that you know if that was the result, that the times sienna college pulling outfit got that he would feel uncomfortable just publishing, as that is uncritically, given the history of pulling. Mrs instead Wisconsin, of course, there's also been significant in pennsylvania and so on, and he was basically worried that people were taking polling too much at face value at this point and not being a little more critical after two thousand and sixteen and two thousand and twenty that would maybe argue in favor. More of experts on the deluxe model, then looking just at the at the white version, Do you agree with that? Or is that sort of like anathema to how we approach this kind of stuff?

Think other nate is basically directional aid wrong. about the notion that we know ahead of time in which direction to be fair. He said exactly about. He said you know, we don't know. We could have appalling error that underestimated democrats this time around like he set, so that very clearly, but still has concerns that, like especially in a place like was content where the poles were so in two thousand and twenty right like they were showing Biden winning by seven points or something right. But do you think the market university law school pollsters are, Where have that right, I mean that that's an important question. I mean if a golfer misses his tee shot to left handed gulf. the forties must be some governments. They took out the left right that governments try to correct and not missed the left the next time, but didn't posters do that after twenty sixteen, it still a sample.

two. I know I know I mean these are all important points and Oh by the way, the poles were not biased, at least ass systematically and twenty. Eighty and we have is unbiased in special action, another one off elections for the most part right and so you know I mean pollsters do have excuses The excuse should be that in twenty sixteen, the electorate fractured on educational grounds with trump, and that we weren't prepared for that- and this is kind of a flaw. It was who is going to manifest itself the first time it happened and so that success winced. When a sixteen and I'm saying use with a little bit. And I will write a minute you know. Is that a good excuse for that in debate that right and then in twenty twenty all, Democrats were being little grudges. Tissues. But Democrats were like were much more rigorous about staying at home their cobain and were therefore much more likely to respond to polls, and it is pretty clear evidence of that yeah that the poles pre covered.

in, like march of two thousand and twenty actually did a pretty good job right yeah. You know in november polls were were less active, because, like republicans were out at the applebee's in ordering doordash and they had more to respond to bolster is phone calls I don't know if it's all the story, but like it's, it's not crazy to think so. I covered we've talked about on this podcast. How covert could have affected responses? Is there also an aspect where, as we get close to election day and partisan affiliations, are more activated and should have scepticism of the media and the establishment or part of how partisanship gets activated. Then republicans who support trump are less inclined to risk two pollsters like, I think I think of it isn't one of them, but there might just be an underlying response. Deferential lira separate issue that people with lower social trust, a tender respond

with less, and you can try to find proxies to correct for that, but it isn't always easy people with low social trust him also not to vote in big numbers. So in some sectors it's kind of like two wrongs make a right: you miss. You miss some people on the phone, but there are people who wouldn't vote in some ways the active answering pulsars phone call and the active voting are, what civic minded things that take a little bit of time out of your day and they're, not necessarily that different? Now the question is can some random republican gubernatorial? any or sent a in wisconsin or pennsylvania or tennessee. Wherever else right, count on having the support that trump did among propensity voters- and I don't know if that's true again in elections were trump has not been on the ballot. The poles had been pretty biased and pretty fine in the trump era, twenty sixteen dashed until now, yeah, I think part of what happened with some of the poles, like also they were missing low

prompted he his back I can maybe other non white voters who are much more concerned. Have been high propensity voters of color right voters of color who vote in every election it'd be strongly democratic right, but the ones who might just turn up now and then turn out in the in south texas? Where you have this major major shift. both Emily often swing here. I mean maybe more inclined to vote for a republican, but also swinging in general, that nato is their nets. Amateurs when it's a matter, because the turn on numbers were so much higher than they had been before. That is a matter of voters who had been inactive. deciding the kind of liked. What trump had to say. I don't Those voters are going to turn out in the sand election. There is also an election in texas, but if there were right right, that's a good question. I mean that also seems based on the times pulling to be a group in the electorate that most activated by inflation,

and so is less ideological and so less inclined to just vote for democrats based on guns, abortion and democracy issues and more inclined to vote for a party based on the issue of the day, and so like Democrats being in power and there being high inflation. Bad for Democrats yeah. I- and it is instrumental to that. You see a declining racial because a lot of poland should democrats are doing quite well with college katy white voters and quite poorly with non confiscated. Hispanic asian and some extending them like voters yum. So it s true. That could explain a state like with constant which news flash is a pretty white state, true, it's like not super college educated but like if polarization is actually decreasing. then was constant, might not be as heavy left for democrats. I don't I don't know

Interesting yeah, we talked a little bit about this with nate. I want to get to a topic that has been a little bit controversial on the internet over the past week or so, and something we also got questions about from listeners. Okay, let's dig into it Alex listener Alex asks. How is the best guess quote? Unquote for twenty two, me too primary candidates determined and how is that different from a mini primary model? Also,

there are reason that the general election model goes with best gas candidates and not generic a democrat or a republican with a list of contenders. Let me tease that out for folks, for whom that was a little bit out of context and gibberish, so in the forecast model in states where the primary has not yet happened. So we don't yet know who the contenders are going to be from the republican side on the democratic side and independent, whatever we essentially approximate, who we think it might be, and then we input that person into the model now over the past week, or so some candidates who had not yet won their primary use, that to say that five hundred and thirty eight thinks that they are going to win their primary and you go on to win the general as well or what have you so you know we can talk about it This can be lost by the way, though, and that amendment about twitter. So you know

you come at five hundred and thirty eight decimus. Without all of lace that our best guess demarcation was wrong. If you asked so that the question stands from Alex, which is why have a basque ass candidate in these states were primaries? Haven't happened yet, instead of just saying a republican or a demo Let me explain why listeners are listening and you got me. I mean with that. Our model intensity of expression you got me is based on actual empirical data right. And in the real world there is no such thing as a generic candidate. There are actual publican who won their nomination and actual democrats and our data, base and how those actual public natural democrats did so need to assume the presence of an actual candidate because there's no data on which to calibrate a generic democratic generic republican. Ok, I addressed

and that from a this is how the model works. This is what empiricism about elections says we should do from a public sort of comprehension standpoint. I think people have gotten quite confused about this practice and too this is question: do we have some kind of primary model? In the background of that's s known and we were going to win deliberately put pretty low effort into it? Go on if we do because like it's for, There are how many primaries rate there are four hundred thirty five house races, plus thirty, five senate races, plus thirty, seven or so governor's races right. We do Don't have the resources to manually go in and put a lot effort into forecasting. Five hundred primary outcomes That would be a terrible use of our time. In most these, it's obvious, you have incumbent, will almost always win right and each time

one kind of dominant candidate, but now we do not want to put a lot of effort, to forecast in the outcome of primaries, is there any chance that we switch the model to just say a Democrat or, Zero chance, zero, zero chance, you've here, folks, zero, the man himself, yeah, okay, so that Canada I think it was in the maryland gubernatorial primary yeah. He did not win yeah, but also our best guess. Canada on the republican side did not win yeah. That was Kelly. Scholtz Kelly Schultz lost to Dan Cox, whose trump endorsed this isn't about the model specifically, but I think this race by the time you're listening. As this will not be at the top of your headlines. But it is today when we're recording thus on Wednesday eight like maryland with the gary hogan model of republican governorship. Is it surprising that they went with this kind of Dan

trump endorsed an election denier much further to the right type of candidate than you would expect from maryland. No, It's never surprising when republicans dominate far right candidate in any state at this point they never you know hogan had his support from any maryland has more modern pelicans in a lot of places right and if a chevy chase public funds, the bethesda I mean- maybe that's. Why they're all Democrats, thus that literally the issue right along at a market or no longer republicans so hoping actually command something of a bipartisan majority without support, Clinton and democrats and some republicans right, but pretty every gop primary elect It is at least consort enough to sometimes dominate a far right candidate. So how did hogan win in the first place? His report primary, so he Larry Hogan was first elected in twenty fourteen.

Two thousand and fourteen versus two thousand and twenty two. It's that's eight years. It's kind of a lot right will two thousand and fourteen all those chevy chase now Democrats are still didn't like a bomb in twenty twelve you and all these far right republican at its lose to mitt, romney, ultimately right and some something between twelve twenty sixteen something changed I mean, I think some others. If that is trump himself and may have activated certain strain. It was always presently gnp but cross in type of a tipping point. As you know, and there are again some moderates who were elected but at the same, like its ember surprise, if you sometimes went up with with the far right candy pressure Ok, so I want to move on to listener questions and I have bought it at them into two groups. One is specific questions about the model, the forecast and more general questions about american politics

do you want to go with one first and then the other audiences were kind of makes them. I don't know, let's just stick with a model with model the general okay, alright we're going to go! That's how I had them in the script. So I you know what is what's the expression great my yeah great minds yet, like you know, two or by segal same level. Okay, here's our first question. I won't push you too hard on that one, for my own ego sake, from Brandon Does the model handle a situation like the you toss senate raised this year? You dont have a traditional geo, p verses democrat race, since the Democrats chose not to run a candidate instead supporting the independent, but still conserve, if Evan mcmullin utah, would probably never have a blue seat, meaning a Democrat win the Senate

but I have to imagine, there's a better than two per cent chance as of this morning for Evan mcmullin, so ave fallen is running as an independent. Our forecast shows him having a two per cent chance of winning the Senate race. I think this color this listener Brandon is questioning. Is that be How does the model just thinks he's a democrat ethnic merlin is a de facto democratic. Democrats did not nominate a candidate because they wanted to increase the chances of Evan mcmullin, winning, now. He has not said who he would caucus with in the senate so in the simulations where he wins, we kind of compromise right. I think it's almost certainly he caucus with the Democrats it made a difference. He is saying I've got with nobody So we're assumes a semi five percent, chancellor cox, for democrats. If he wins, I think, that's very generous. I think it should be ninety five percent right.

So how does a model process thus thou? The model says that there no democratic candidate in the race and treats mcgowan, is de facto democrat. Ok, citizens and eighty is basically yes to this person's instinct. That may well, true to treat in the same way as it does. We actually have a parameter in the motto called key switch, which sounds like it's really cool he does uncle. What kings, which is, as is designed for His king and burning sand who's who are independence, but are de facto Democrats right. True de facto Democrats, they cox the Democrats sometimes I m kind of in the race, but the democratic canada, morally infant with what that does it treats angus, king and Bernie sanders as democrats and switches and your credit candidate to independent instead so but where are you forgetting, can switch how you caucus and how you run maybe two different things

like Evan mcmullin might be campaigning in a way that a Democrat never would in utah. Can you break I figured I'd, bring it like. I mean Mullen is someone who, in the bush era would have kind of one of he's: chevy chase, republicans, he's someone woman, though, that others inverts hybrid cherries, all. The mormons. Did you all members of utah's house delegation voted was it yesterday. to cardiff. I same sex marriage. You toss tinge and grow. We I'm just saying that, for Israel mormons in this era are certainly more moderate, then other types of christianity within the republican party. There is no question in this environment that that's the case. I mean the thinking that, like historically oppressed religious minorities right, they turned to affiliate with conservative parties. I think there's a pretty good,

and that you too will it may become a purple state. So I actually don't know what happened, but mons religious affiliation is trying to look it up on Wikipedia right now. I don't want to get this wrong and I apologise already if we ve gone on this hundred because I was incorrect according to her at Stockholm merlin. a mormon who embraces gays and immigrants and is popular with millennials. Just join the race that could swing the election is between sixteen okay, so I guess that at least that description supports yarra, democratic labeling or whatever the models. Democratic labeling of avenue and but aren't you making a case then for why haven't macmillan might do better than your average democrat in utah, He probably will you could

much better than Europe's democratic new to us to lose in the development of a new resent chance of winning? That's pretty high? Ok, let's run thank you for the question brendan. That was a good shot. Parker asks. How does the model calculate ranked choice, voting probabilities in alaska and mean for long term listeners? We have definitely talked about this before, but because alaska, so interesting and because alaska processes also new retorted. This remain before Can we go over it again? We doesn't so yea just relax, not I mean no. It treats alaska like louisiana. Sought me package I'm in Louisiana. You actually have open primary the day of election. we have election day and then you have run offs after that in race, where no one gets to enter the boat in Alaska. You haven't instant run off, so the same ballot is used to you know actually determined that day. It's time, voter second choices and third choices and so forth, but we just tweeting

as though it were a real run off, which introduces more uncertainty, which is which is kind of what you mean, You know we have some code to handle when I if the primary model that we built, maybe we'll eventually try to plug it in, but I don't think we'd make a ton of difference in in maine. We don't do anything and I mean so. The difference by the way should explain the reason why Alaska's complicated is because you can have multiple candidates. From the same party on the ballot right makes it like Louisiana. You can have republicans say: one independent and one mc rat and its support because when you go to second round, it's very possible the democrat. well when the plurality of votes in the first round, because the public and split their votes between two or even three candidates right most gnp. Voters will the other public and ahead of the Democrat and so therefore apply. for the voting rounds, and usually the republicans will consolidate and pull ahead next question from JANET. The model seems too

date even on days when there are no poles around five p m. Is this to take the day forward and lessen uncertainty? Is there more invisible info that gets added? I love. An idea. If so, what gets added? How does incorporating new info work on what intervals I mean in principle, there are like dozens of inputs that the model uses right so fundraising is one where you fundraising numbers of other rules about, if one can it submits their filing of the other one, how the muddle handles that if there are primaries and differ had a win. Then a placeholder can then the model update that we do. weather forecast this as a default, everyday and by the way, even if there's no of individual house or senate races by the approval rating usually one pull everyday right: the generic ballot, there's often poles everyday day, approval ratings, its pre, where that we'd have literally a day with his no new information of any kind, would,

So I think we have the model set as default, just to run a forecast at five p m if it hasn't yet. It shouldn't change anything I mean the way and perfect house design exactly I don't know what the motto counts as a day. I think, maybe a day with no pulling a model doesn't reduce uncertainty. There's no point in the day happen requesting deal in man the day without pools, If, if a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? If I mean if a day passes and no one cares, americans what they think yeah come, the data and happened. They didn't have men, but the model in theory, if there's any information, nothing should change, but Does this old handed out uncertainty will know because, like if all the sun, if there was no new information that was released between now and election day, but then all tomorrow is election day and we received literally no new information from July twentieth onward. Right there would be decreased uncertainty right

no o because it is in all of them, holds you got where from yes? Oh far before now, I've confused myself, the amount of uncertainty in the model is based on the number of days between the last pole and the election? Not the number of days. But we have you. Like the french rule, there were some black out period, where you can't words poles an extra days for the election, then Then you have more uncertainty right, so that's at least supposed to be designed. I think that's not quite sure, I mean we have so many models like that's, that's, I think that's how it's done. As you said the model is its own teenagers, lash younger. Now, with living in miami. How could you even expect to know what is up to now? I mean seriously like just. Furthermore, they get out of bed right takes a lot. It takes a lot of work in the summer in miami. Is this the like no left to give nate. We re really you ok! I have been so many election cycles with you

like everyone on the internet, defending the model being very specific about absolutely everything in it. This is new for the model is is, is is like I mean it's just chill at this point alright, that confirms my question. This is the new no fault to give me yeah, it's a good. It's a good model cause. It doesn't really have to prove anything a man they go Who else has no right to give need changed other than that the model lived his or her own life uninterrupted in miami. I mean again, I I know jack. The model was often right. I don't I I just can't be like no, I mean like beyond work. They actually splaine. Oh god, let's not talk about that. Let me see Nothing too, is that, like typically, pass? We released the congressional model in like august or september. By that point, you do get a fair amount, There's not a lot of news about national horse race for congress in june

apart from these primaries, of course, right yeah, and so it's like not like, and even if there were, then you have the one get twenty more between now and election day, so like there's not like, how can usually see dramatic shifts in the middle of July and the way the EU would actually in a presidential election, because there have like the conventions and stuff like that right and much more action packed. you're not joining in see major swings in the model in July. Okay, next question from fred: has there ever been an election that fight? thirty eight predicted had a ninety nine percent chance of winning and lost, after all, if there's a ninety nine percent chance, that means roughly one out of one hundred times it goes the other way. Thank you from. I know the new model says over. Ninety nine percent, but still what's the biggest upset ever according to five thirty, eight

we have an interactive on our site about how are forecasted, let me see if I can drop the ural. That's a good question for, like the biggest upset ever oh, how good are fighter dates, worker, so Google, how good or five through its forecasts- and you can actually find the answers to this. I think I saw U s: Senate elections, for example. Biggest surprise on October 18th, two thousand and sixteen we gave ron Johnson a five percent chance of winning wisconsin and he won so the senate. Ninety five slash five. I guess that was russ feingold, I think, is the biggest upset speaking wisconsin pulling up yeah. I gonna don't so I don't think. Let me look at us house, oh on august, The twenty timid gave Lucy mc bath a three percent chance of winning the georgia. Sixth, she

hmm, so at a ninety, seven percent upset their governor and his boring Kim reynolds had a fourteen percent chance and she won. Begin upset so yeah, but eventually and like sports forecasts were like sports, it's easier to find speak up that's because you often have like the ins. A tournament where there are sixty eight teams right and by definition Wish I win. Pretty often tad races than amidst a matter of time before we get like one Ninety nine percent events happening, but it's important. At ninety five? Ninety seven has been historically, the biggest surprises alright. Well, you know we appreciate transparency here at five, thirty, eight, so there you have it fried. Those are our biggest upset ever. Let's move on and talk a little bit about some of the broader questions.

Politics that we received from listeners are it here is a non model, specific question, although it asks about problem billowy, I dont know that we're going to actually be able to apply quantitative measures to this question, but David ass. If democrats experience a worst case scenario in the mid terms, does that increase the chances that Biden doesn't run or faces a serious contender in twenty twenty four? What about the best case scenario yeah, this is subjective. Obviously I think that yeah, I think by this, probably is pretty tied to the outcome of the midterms. I mean if democrats lose control of the senate, then Couple of things happens and if they listen to the senate, there's almost no case where democrats win the senate and keep the house right. The Senate is a much more likely hold for democrats, so yeah I mean I think it's much easier to kind of portraying Biden as a failure. I think democrats will also be more.

Worried if he loses kenneth. What, if you have a g president win in before, then, you could have copd with control of all branches of government, including the it's right, and so they would think a lot about. Electability in, like you know, a lot of items, excess in twenty twenty. Four twin, We rather came because he was perceived as being more electable if thirty seven percent. Whenever approval rating Democrats get shall act, I mentioned even though it is true. It is true that a typical outcome, typically a party is going to if they have barely have control over congress again lose control and in its mid term, but like I think, things are already pretty bad for by right, the fact that you have like gap, newsome, it was a governor of california, basically kind of already running for the two. Twenty four nomination is a typical typically have a sitting president. They might some fringe opposition from like the extreme. We

the party or maybe extreme center, but you wouldn't have like a mainstream. Prominent Democrat like avenue some kind of so explicitly kind of testing the waters fur for a presidential bid. By the way, the vice president is from California, Gavin newsom, endorsed kamala harris and twenty twenty and Lee. That's not sobbing him from thinking of a world in which he become somehow that impregnate nominee instead in twenty twenty four hours? It's a little hard to imagine that world. I don't even think when we did our first twenty twenty four democratic presidential primary draft. He made it onto the board yeah Lampert, the one thing you can say these ambitious right well, he has this appeal where it's like there's. This thing Democrats are doing like Dan pfeiffer, the communication strategist had this thing about, like a, we should call the Democrats doing the freedom agenda mix of incense right. It's like oh freedom,

me too? I like. Let me look at this okay. Well, it's like the frank, Luntz theory of politics, which is that if you, name things, the right name. You can affect their popularity yeah. It's kind of thing we're like I want to call it called good heart law, which is that once they become adviser upholsterer by yet once like a measure, and you try to cater to that. Then it ceases to become reliable measure right. Maybe reading poles. Well, I could see blood fairly well defined, feeling of what It means right, if you start saying: oh our climate change is actually a freedom bill right people are like you know what. that's meaningless gobbledygook that is bold and so, and so it no longer will kind of get that advantage from like from the roth ethically, I get that so left will argue like this is freedom because its freedom to live in a knot, climate change world, it's a freedom to live. What you know I saw this post from pfeiffer and all the different thing.

That include freedom, which is like raising right. Let me really explain freedom in terms of also in terms of like not giving up when you I have a two party system, the party agendas are completely? Incoherent, land grabs of different types of constituencies, sit together without any philosophical cohesion or any attempt to avoid receive your inconsistency right. We have often highlighted here like that. If you are someone who systematically believes that, like everything you democratic, gender, the european and it makes sense to you, then a saying that you're not very thoughtful the politics which is kind of like a partisan right, and you like you, don't want to try to put like a cute label, because there is no theme but there's a difference if you like, finding it annoying inauthentic and hypocritical, and whether or not it works in politics to some extent. So like yes, it's extremely onboard people who watch like fox or MSNBC oftentimes college educated people who are ideologues

top to bottom and we'll just like believe. Whatever their party tells them we better thier ideologues right at least ideologues sometimes are intellectually can distance, lorry or high some hardest ones. I got that's different right. That's important! I guess what you can be a partisan ideologues, catering and yet so here's my question. So the franklin's theory of politics is more like. Ok, let's not call it the estate tax, let's call it the deaf tax and by calling it the deaf tax. You changed the way that people can see with that. Like hey, it's not really fair tax americans just because they have died. Do you think things like that, actually make a difference. I think that you can manipulate publication can within certain guidelines, but like When you go too far, then it sounds like some authoritarian country euphemism you know it like you or it is that actual case in politics

because, like I understand where your frustration is coming from, but my question is more like work now, so I feel good Democrats have an issue with I think Democrats are delusional about what the average and thinks and they think, if it weren't for miss information and if it weren't for fox news and if we just had better messaging, which is communicated by the way. If you bring a message and right, The american public is, I don't think what country it's nice country, either it's a pretty moderate country on average right and I think Democrats, like have delusions about. Oh, we can. such our way in our agenda, is unpopular. Telling people realise what it really said right and I think that's not true. I mean people. Are there lots of people who were really conservative in the country and demo it's a move to left and like so, I think the whole kind of Gavin newsom theory of the case we just need to like like it is not be afraid right. I think that's. I think that, like caterers,

on twitter, who kind of are in the bubble a little bit and kind of aren't we're looking at public opinion, yeah, I mean it seems like Gavin newsom is doing quite well. The scottish, the scottish is which is shorthand on the podcast for the betting markets for twenty twenty four, I dont totally To think of it was so here's the thing right. I think there is a first mover advantage right where now, if you kind of, if you ask the average reporter, kate who is going to be the? If not the president vice president, right now, the name at the top of mine. I began you some men that might take off For it might not right, but he is at the very least kind of has offer. Mover advantage, but because of that I think Partly why binds in trouble is that you can have like gum pritzker illinois will say I am a new some I would be, or candidate, and so now I'm gonna throw a massive role: invention, nibbler IRAN aptly Biden also still runs than violence. Fine

I think Biden would run. Will you think of? a new some pritzker and gretchen women are getting the rays binding, which ass I came over mind. I think Biden is enough of a party guy and read situations, reads the room. I hate that phrase well enough that like, if there were multiple credible people in his own party who are not you know left wing, whatever right who work chow seeing him from the centre of the party. I think he would say I'm going to take that hint and withdraw the other thing. Is that, like it becomes a little bit self fulfilling once you have an active democratic, shadow primary, then you have democrats could of course, citing Biden that will drive his approval numbers down further reduces leverage even further right. That makes it more attractive to. Therefore step in the ring by the way. I think a the story is lost by more than a harris.

It was a very moment at Biden declared for the race in twenty twenty There was speculation, maybe he'll be a one term president. He is very old, so it's always been. question. Whether Biden would run for a second term. Why? a couple. Harris is not seen as the heir apparent and we're talking up who talked about that right. But to me that's the the beggar snoring. The thing I mean they're both interesting they're, both consequential but like as an interesting part of the story, and we are going to talk about that more future. For now, I do want to get to maybe a couple more questions from listeners before we wrap here, and this question from neil actually pertains specifically to your comment about the two parties and perhaps their positions and coalitions summing up to some form of policy? So this is an expression of a college student who lives in the bronx in new york a place that has a very democratic when I went to high school

neil still referring to being in the bronx. I saw a lot more homophobia and less acceptance of algae bt q, americans than one would expect in such a democratic area, not to mention some democrats who were elected in the bronx or socially conservative, the overall vibe of the bronx isn't as pro as one would expect from a democratic area. What explanation would you have for this? For but on an area voting heavily for one political party yet lacking support for some of their key proposals I think you know there are different types, was so for a long time. You'd have democratic black voters democratic. hispanic voters say on serbia's only moderate or conservative and kind of what's the oh they're, not really, they always were democratic but like no. They still do to a large. I mean things are: changing coalitions are shifting a little bit but in large part, a good portion of the moderate they're, not conservative, voters, necessarily we're a good portion of the moderate voters in the democratic party or voters color. Yes,

whereas the white Democrat to them too often so one of the most liberal democratic electorate, for example, is democratic electorate in you talk it's very white rain but, like I, I think there are a lot of black. I says the white person myself right who say that this is kind of non negotiable because they think the gop as a history of racism of anti black race, and right, and so, if that's ok it's then, when not a lot negotiate in terms of of your vote. but they can be socially conservative on a fair number of issues are historically, you know, Some populations that are often first generation immigrants might be pro entrepreneurial isms. They have kind of a fiscal. hispanic voters are less socially conservative, at least younger ones. Right, the generational divides in these communities, but yeah I mean there is a lot of loyalty from the black community particular toward the democratic party

There are very understandable reasons for that, but that doesn't mean in necessarily going to be, the liberal and on every issue, one I think neo years, also probably talking in large part about hispanic voters as well, because he's talking about the bronx, I think we are seeing some of the cleavage as within that electric break out more in recent elections. Obviously I mean right, I don't. When I was hoping to finally yeah, I mean the fact that, like in on the americas within it damon kind of game. It's a huge! Thank you, caroline, I think like their only there always there's. So much will be our record, but this project came out as gay want once upon a time. Ok, on a model tat remind you, is the model gay we we had a question from high psychotherapist: ask it and eyes it will finally be coming out as gave this year. I do not want to secure about five years, can I tell you some of the weirdest,

it happened to me on the internet, surround fiery sexuality. Ok, I think we should not interpret if united nations by MR konrad ideas, a curtain here. The first community has one hundred percent accepted fighting within their ranks and are some weird stuff on the internet as a result. Ok, I I I do not want and courage any of this leave poor five alone, ok, he's crunching. The numbers it's a lot of it, like a model of five actually works, hard, ok up, went you. Gotta get to go to my home. I thy no, but I caught you while foxes, don't like warm weather. I not nuts. I cut you off. It was for the sake of a gut aside, but things changed on a dime yeah. It comes everyone, suddenly went from being homophobic to like liberated, I mean internally to change. Is she right with the thinner people but like it's like it? When became like super, like

progressive overnight. It just became more socially unacceptable to those views and there's a mule. Over the flip side too, there might be people who were under pressure to act in homer, phobic ways especially in groups of other heterosexual men write anything more particularly homophobic themselves, right and so like yeah. I mean obviously like. People are social beings right subject. peer pressure, and so- and so you know something flips on a dime, then it's unlikely that underlying new changes quite as much right. So there's always

we switch back and it can always switch work. I have often looked at the history of gay people as a good example of how society can be more accepting and less accepting over time. You can look centuries back and see societies where it was acceptable and then fast forward, a century or two when it becomes unacceptable again. So, like these things, public opinion and acceptability of certain things in society fluctuate a lot. This idea that, like everything, just goes in one direction- ah I think, as most people understand is a is- is not accurate. Ok, we still have a lot more questions, but we're going to try to wrap it up. Here's one of the final questions. Honestly: we get this question a lot, I hate this question because I generally don't think it comes from a good place, but chris the question asker is from ireland, so maybe has less of a partisan interest in all this chris asks

I ve been wondering what, if any impact you think the patterns of death arising from covert nineteen might have on the results of the mid term and I'll be honest, like we ve gotten this question so many times over the past two plus years. I haven't really put it on the package because I think it oftentimes you can tell it comes from people who are like rooting for peace in advantages or whatever based on death. Do you have do? Do you have a different answer than I have, which is just kind of like being grossed out by this question? Not like? I don't think people should be afraid to ask questions. As on pc, but I mean the answer is like it: it would not have a material impact, I mean There are, I mean, cover, it's been awful, but if you kind of. If you actually try them all out, you find it's, it's not. Have you dry significant, not really cause, I know intuitively like it would make a difference I found out. I mean there are a lot of

country right. There are three hundred and thirty million right. So having like a. slight partisan gap in one cause of death among many causes of death right, but in the toad holiday of covert nineteen. Even is there I believe that will in the first year of come, you actually had like, so in the north east as the first wave that, like it stewed towards democratic states, post exe, and I'm pretty sure if you have had more death in in red counties these people? Were the vaccines are pretty darn effective against against death, and so, if you have lower decks nation right, then attempt to dominate other factors but not enough to really move as far as elections oh, I mean everything thing about his like what about migration patterns seems like new york and california. That lost.

if you voters and so kind of where people move to and from I think, is interesting, potentially but yeah. Ok! Well, that was a serious now, but to maybe pick up on a lighter note before we wrap up here what we got some, we got some weird questions in addition to our models: pacific and broader american politics, questions phil asked. Where was finally on january, section five eu believes in democracy, families Whole job depends on having election results that are counted- and yes, I mean, I think, was very disturbed by the events of january sixth. Are you sure cause I've? I saw him riding on one of the guinean capital protesters, insurrectionist heads or whatever. Wasn't there someone wearing like fox hat five. You wants you to know that he was not in washington

on the day of january. Six does not support. Any of the motives of the january six protesters and believe that democracy is under threat and needs to be protected. Ok well, the vessels were five, he was Elizabeth from Vermont writes I Joseph ivy, taking an early morning, swim in lake champlain trick five. He was in lake champlain on January. Sixth, yes, I was frozen over, though wasn't it the foxes can kind of like burrow under and stuff. I think okay, yeah wendy asks fyvie when I dont know, and we actually very topic. I heard yes this this whole and of his pipe cast, with death in furries. I don't really think that you know this is where I'm going on vacation tomorrow. So I guess that's just what happens to my brain when I'm getting ready to check out and not think about politics, I apologize to anyone. We have offended on this podcast

last question. We're going to take this question from bradley bradley asks what are the best non food anniversary activities in new york city? My first anniversary is coming up next month, We might go there for for more broadly, congratulations on our first anniversary was lovely to hear, but it's Stop it. You said non food, well known free really, change the course of this conversation, casino, nay. What else is there to talk Let us do in new york city and, like everything I would recommend is just kind of cliche there, but if you're coming here next month, it's going to be hot, so I go to the mat. Tell here next month. Yeah, you can go to them. It although actually august is a wonderful time to go to restaurants,

oh yeah, because it's the easiest month to get a reservation. It's always the reservation. I guess yeah. What else is there to do? The mets game, mets and yankees are competitive this year, very good competitors, understanding it The: u s open, if you're here for the? U s open, that's, I think, maybe the best sporting event in the work and minimal sport. in the food guy right. So what am I going to do if you're saying no food, then it becomes sports? Can we get sponsored by the new york tourism board? I would love to become a booster for new york city. I feel, like you know, we've made strides, but we're still not back so come to new york come enjoy, this city, a member that yet like the thing, the best thing about new york. Apart from like the restaurant, friday's like just kind of walking around, but that's it walking around, is kind of not so fun in. There's the storm line, the circle line, the boat that goes all the way around manhattan. Oh yeah, he could. He could just kind of fun lick for an anniversary, that's q. You can see all of the city. You go to comedy clubs yeah

That's always a fun thing to see. People out of town have never been unhappy with going to a comedy show, I would say: yeah: okay, yeah, let's leave it there! Thank you! Thank you. My name is galen, now in concert and michael tab in the control room. Chadwick Matlin is our editorial director and Emily, even as key is, are in turn. You get in touch my email, us ipod, constant, five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of a shout, leave us a rating, reviewing the apple pie, cost or tells him about us. And of course, if you are watching this on you to be sure to subscribe to five thirty, eight things from us. endless user