Who hello and welcome to the five thirty politics broadcast I'm dealing drink. We are three weeks out from election day and, according to our forecasts, President Trump has a fourteen percent chance of winning the election. Republicans have a thirty two percent chance of holding the Senate and a five percent chance of taking the house took today we're gonna unpack. What that fourteen percent chance really means what does trumps path Second term look like at this point and what is he trying to do to improve his position? also going to zoom in on what the twenty twenty campaign looks like in the sunbelt. After the two thousand sixteen campaign, it seemed like an open question whether democratic, political future would rely more on the rust belt, the Sancho in This election, based on the pulling it looks like the Roswell, is a more reliable path to abiding presidency. But can

all of the sun. It will be determined in large part by races in the Sunday and recently the Biden campaign has been dedicating more resources to Georgia and taxes, so cured me to discuss. All of this are editor in Chief need Silver Hany. He gave it also here with us, is sooner politics, writer, clam alone, Heckler Higgins. Senor politics, writer, Perry, Bacon, Junior Highbury hygiene and are also mention that, as we are recording this podcast, the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney bear it are under way and we owing to be covering those confirmation hearing later leader in the week, so stay tuned will have plenty to talk. But let's begin by unpacking president Troms fourteen percent chance of winning the election need if Trump wins, how would it happen? How does that fourteen percent chance

kind of result in a Trump factory. But, to be honest, I find it a little bit hard to come up with a narrative fer, a Trump win, but it's kind of like one reason too, The models, I guess right and say we take that fourteen percent chance seriously don't want to think through all the crazy possibilities. It probably evolves. Some combination of the poles tightening an there being some polling error on election day like there wasn't one. Sixteen I mean, let's be created, here as a panel like Werner, some things that could go really well for Trump, ok, whether they could go well. That Biden could have a bad second debate. You know, maybe he makes a bunch of gaffes. Maybe he stumbled on the Supreme Court answer right now. Miss one thing may be. A second thing is the Supreme Court nomination hearings rally a few listen or publicans back to Trump side. Maybe a third thing is, he doesn't seem to show the after effects of covered. The rallies go

simply well. Maybe a fourth thing is one of these big Pharma companies announces hey phase three results for vaccine have gone well, it sounds like there's no snow. Are there going to be any type of FDA approval or emergency use, but you could get good news on vaccines and Smith and a better mood before November? Third, you know, if all that happens and there's a bit more appalling error, then I don't think he wins that race, but maybe I could, but I'm in here, sir, The trouble is not a very disciplined person and trump keeps doubling down a messages that have proven to be fairly ineffective in the message this morning, California is going to Hell vote Trump New York has what vote Trump I mean that's, usually not a message that an incoming president would use it. People are concerned about the direction of the country. Usually, if people think the country's gone to Hell, they would go out the incumbent he's still trying this law and order messaging. He is still being very kind of cavalier on.

of it. So our religion centres, MIKE Lee, who is diagnosed with covered his doctor says, is not contagious, but we don't seem to have a negative test. Actually, yet in its Supreme Court hearing in person talking without a mask on which would seem not super smart. So up like this, the fact that trumps current deficit is so self inflicted in some ways makes a comeback less likely. I think you know if you had an MBA team was down three two one of the finals, but they were equally skilled team and I got some bad breaks. Can they might have a ok chance? if he would everyone, because they were completely inept, then you

give him a very high chance of making a statistically unlikely come back. If that makes sense, so I want to throw that two Perry and Clare does. It seem like trumps position in this race? Is self inflicted or the product of larger systemic issues like the fact that we're in the middle of a pandemic and an economic crisis, I think, being a president running for re election in the middle of a pandemic would be difficult for anyone, but obviously trump and trumps government led response has been pretty wanting. So on that level it's certainly self inflicted, and then there has been the past. What ten days since he's had covered, which have been pretty erratic from you know, ex cap and Trump he certainly like, seems to be on a different wavelength. So I would say a lot of these are pretty self inflicted things, but it would be a difficult election environment for anyone soon,

Poles right now are ever is hesitant. Fifty two forty two, I tend to think that's the I arrange as we had this year, so I tend to think they'll just be some Republicans coming back to trompe at a really bad too weak. would be impossible, Covid, nineteen able to and so on. So I think he might get back to five thousand two hundred and forty four. This would have liked and Republicans come back to him. I think Many probing of one more debate in tromp was pretty dreadful in the first debate with debts. debates are always moments that can affect the So maybe he has a good debate performance, not promising that. Obviously I don't know what palm peo or our attorney general bar going to do, but it seems like there Wendy, using their agencies to produce negative information now Joe Biden, I wouldn't rule out some kind of deal J, something about bite and there would be norm violating democratic values vacillating but might affect the poles sort of aid. You know James

only thing round to letting those looking for a of Trump winning those in the path. If he's only down six percent in the national Poles it is always a day, then some kind of small pulling here, maybe some throwing out ballots contesting the results and, like a Pennsylvania, I think that's the path. I'm saying I think, because of what happened in two thousand. Sixteen, where you had situations where Hillary Clinton was pulling ahead of tromp in certain midwestern states throughout the entire contests and then went on to lose those states. People are hesitant about seeing the race as a ten point race or as a proposition that Trump only wins. Fourteen percent of the time, so how distinct is this from the circumstances that we saw,

in two thousand and sixteen and are those differences mostly about Trump and the pandemic, or are they mostly about Hillary Clinton versions? Joe Biden? Yes, so a couple of questions there for me, the ten and a half point led for by international polls is like in some sense harder to believe. Then the fourteen percent. I mean, if you're down ten half points. with three weeks ago, having a fourteen percent chance seems kind of generous. If anything, are you daddy or forecast? Well, I'm just saying like at the polls show by way way way way way way ahead. So it's like

the model is going out on a limb and interpreting the poles of. I would note, though, that there are some regions to be suspicious of that tend to have point lead where its most basic national coal. We have not had it. Many highquality state pulls the high quality poles. We have had our good for binding, but not ten half point led good necessarily, so it might be more like eight or nine and as Perry said, if you get down to like sex than six, is an interesting number right. Six means three, the dipping point states a three point pulling here would be in line between sixteen and be more routine, so confess it fine might have been the race back toward him. Are there be something about mail ballot with a lot of balance spoilage or something like that? It's hard to win races by ten and one slash two points in a climate does polarized, but yeah I mean declares answer brief answer. I mean one thing to look at for Biden in twenty. Sixteen about twenty percent of the electorate didn't like either Clinton or Trump, and the most women for Trump is like forty five percent Trump thirty percent.

Britain and the rest twenty five percent or whatever to third parties. If you just shifted that we're now the voters who didn't like Clinton or Trump, if they, instead with sixty percent to Biden, thirty percent to Trump and ten percent to third parties, then bind would win by ten or eleven points. So having a candidate that voters don't feel negatively about? They may not love. Joe Biden has been brutally rendering gray, but they're. Ok, rather than Hillary Clinton, can really produce a pretty big swing. Yeah. I think there hasn't been a pandemic. Big. If the prevailing narrative of this election would certainly be in sort of Walker. Conversations like this would definitely be about sexism, about voter preference and about Biden being a more palatable preferable, Canada to a greater number of people. So I think that would have been the elements had there not been a pandemic, so it's kind of interesting thing that isn't really talked about that much anymore: the sort of sexist preference for Biden over Clinton Prob,

way by a certain number of voters, which is a kind of interesting and that alternate universe, we would probably be having that conversation a bit more. So I do think the when issuing intervention, when I first answer was Supreme Court issue, I think, is interesting in the Biden has benefited by being perceived as one quarter code- moderator centralism in two to some extent, so many whose like straightforward and tells you like it and an honest answer, so I think, having an issue where you're sort of hiding with your views are not saying is, is not ideal you're doing about Supreme Court Packets Supreme Court? That, yes, the second issue where else you were a Europe. Actual position is perceived to be right now and also the radical and if, if you're forecourt, bagging, which, if you're not saying you're, yes, it does somebody's even before. It is therefore controversial issues, I do think if I was buying navvy worried about So there's a lot of media coverage around this issue. This has become a bit of a media circle or he's getting asked everywhere. His task

asked everywhere and nothing is in a move, ten points, but I do think is the key Did you see where they probably need to figure out? What is their strategy? What is there yes, sir, you are they helping trump. With the current answers, which I think creating a media frenzy there is going to Keep elevating these next few weeks. what do you make of vitamins answer on this, which is essentially to say, we're not gonna, give you an answer in pretty bold terms like it and he doesn't really office gay in any kind of way. That says: well, if Republicans do this will consider or bottle why he just has broken out of us until after the election. Why is he doing that? Because he doesn't want to create a sound bite that percolates its way to like news that people actually want their basically counting on this just being like a thing that remains a thing among

People in the media, which maybe it will or maybe it'll, get elevated with help from the trunk campaign to the level of people like out those Joe Biden feel about court packing in the last and will become like a central take away from the next debate. If there is one, I think it's funny, because it's totally this mine game that that the press, poor and the campaign are currently playing right now with each other. Both of the sides know the game that they're playing and like five and probably wants to keep his court packing options open because he's going to get a lot of pressure from his left flank, and it's so interesting that this is becoming like the issue of twenty They won but doesn't happen all the time, unlike Supreme Court packaging seems like a significant issue for the press to be asking about, like politicians often try to like now give completely silent, enters, isn't that kind of our role and we failed our role if we don't get him on the record, I'm not saying it's not I'm just saying that, like everyone, what's happening here and, like actually are

sure where we are right now in the election. I'm not sure if the Biden campaign is right that they can keep on when giving non answers I mean they're, very risk averse right, someone becomes a bigger is to give these non answers, then, to give an answer, man can be like hey look. If they do thing that violates norms? Then we'll have to look at our options We cannot rule out, but it will depend on a lot of things like I. That's it honest answer anyway, and I don't understand why it would be super damaged and you have to start out with the preamble about like this is a big pile of norms never done before in presidential year. Bob law. This is terrible terrible. We would urge them to. Dorothy election? If they don't follow that, eyes which the vast majority of Americans want. Then we'd have to consider ways to bring some equity back and situation. It's not that hard. In answer to give, I don't think it. Secondly, a super popular answer, but its give a bull

that answers where they're headed by don't think Kamala Harris said anything that clearly, I think when they said as much clearer than what time will Harris it, which is basically the Republicans, appoint white judges and they should have went black ones, is not a position that was going to stay in the next three weeks. she answered, I think that's where they have to go is we're like. Basically, all options are on the table if they put bear out on the court. It is a really interesting moment, if only because Joe Biden is pretty carefully, I would argue, followed basic sort of media voter, theorem ideas. He tends to be for popular things. Against for unpopular things commonly Harris was. Very clear that the job I'm camp, does not support a fraction ban, even though a free ban is more popular right now than ever. Judges this report, it is a hugely important issue. I mean so I've been surprised. Frankly Ipod Bite and Mr Traditional is, would pretty much

I would not do something like that. That's I expected his openness to this idea has been surprising and suggests to me he might be open to it. If there's a six three court do you know, bear any sort of a very directives are represented side. This has actually been issuing development. If only because I have left these last week's biggie, Joe Biden, Mr Centuries norms, Senator guy may be opened a pact the court. I would not have predicted that six months ago, the None is enormously changes that, of course, so yeah. I think twenty twenty one is gonna be a really interesting year in D. If the Democrats,

get the full sweep and there's gonna be a lot of interesting fracturing that might happen between some of these more like centrist type gleamed. On from you know, the old Republican Party there's gonna be like binds instincts about traditional ism. The one place where it tracks that Biden would want to make fundamental changes is the idea that, if you're an institutionalized- and you think that which he is a great he's a long time, senator obviously, if you're in institutionalists than you think that I'm era has like shown: the weakness of american institutions, then you might say: ok, while its now time to take out the toolbox and fix you know. So if you think the Supreme Court can only be fixed by adding justices, what's fix wine in power and I'll, be the long sighted statesmen who stays in office for four years and fixes things and then gets out because you know all have tainted myself with these rights

all policies. There's lots of interesting ways that this plays out. I'm curious because we started this conversation talking about present trumps path to victory, which were giving a fourteen per chance to. We said that the things that he is running on this point don't seem particularly popular like saying that American should be afraid of covert or for example, last week he announced an end to stimulus talks which a large stimulus billows overwhelmingly popular in the pulling. So those are the things He's running on now we're talking about an issue where Democrats may not be taking the popular side of the issue. Do we see a different mean how Donald Trump is running on. I guess is intuition and on relatively unpopular things versus have Senate Republicans are running like they leading into into the Supreme Court a leaning into court packing like if we're saying that Trump is not taking. The popular sides of issues are set at Republicans doing so so confirming a c b now verses waiting for

the election that may be giving someone else? you know waiting is the more popular move by some margin. I think they correctly deduce in this case that, like maybe organism electoral here, but you get a very conservative justice confirmed in a six record, so it's worth it anything kind of. Likewise, Democrats understan getting a sixty five. Court or seventy six court, whatever it might be with the hugely valuable to the fore, where I mean I guess they could just kind of secretly plot to seeds and lie about it. You know what I mean also trying to use some leverage for deterring elegance confirming Amy Coney there. I think that's been totally lost traffic. The notion of, if you do this than we might have to retaliate it's kind of gotten sidetrack bright. But my question is what our sun and Republicans running on Are they running on the popular issues that Trump isn't running on, or do they not have much run on themselves, so the stimulus

He's got an interesting because you saw the less you know, Thursday Friday. It appears that, like these Sinnott Republicans, who were now for reelection are like we don't want. Any more stimulus worries too much money. Like the TED Cruises, the Marshal Blackburn's are against it. The cynic Republicans are up for reelection. I think Gram has been pretty clear. In fact he is for it even try four stimulus stimulus now. I think you're now single the people who are up for reelection reduced poles, you and I do, and they seem to be adjusted to be for the stimulus and the real resistance is among the Republicans who want to show up here. They are adding TED crews. The beans ass is the might leave the Gaza. We run a president and twenty twenty four dont want to vote for a stimulus. Others. There is a slit there on that issue on other issues like Graham, I think, probably knows that pushing the Barrack origin through is not that popular but estimate he thinks is worth doing generally, though you're seeing a lot of Republicans run on sort of the Democrats are socialists. Therefore, the green New deal elegant, tacky Saul of Macao.

ads or about any Mcgrath supports the protests that she supports. Rioters and she's deplores the green new deal. He's out of liberals, I think the overall, but the message which might pins actually gave it pretty well in new deal, socialism too liberal. I think that messages is overall whether publicans are running on. I don't think that's a bad message, I don't think going to work in the midst of covert in a mist of hell. Unpopular trump is but the sort of Democrats are too liberal message has worked out previous elections. I actually want to read a quote from an opt out in political over the weekend that I thought was interesting and kind of compares the situation, the trumpets and in twenty twenty two, the situation he wasn't in twenty. Sixteen curious, if you think it's cracks are rich lowries, a conservative writer being a piece called. Does Donald Trump actually want to win this election says in two thousand sixteen Trump fastened on the issues that voters cared about more than the political elite.

Trade and DE industrialization immigration and political correctness. This time he's devoting inordinate time two matters that obsess him, not the average voter, and essentially he makes the case that Trump is responsible for the position that he's in not the kind of like broader things like the pandemic or stuff. Like that. Do you agree with his assessment of comparing his twenty twenty campaign His twenty sixteen campaign, not at all like law and order, is a pc campaign. Targeted same kinds of issues of race and identity, trumps governs and talks about immigration. All that I guess I don't camping. I'm missing. We're Trump is like move. The women written. What is he talking about? It's like they elect is moved. I think these issues away from transitions with the idea that Trump is not talking about pc issues is seems to me to be we like August and September, and it was full of legs. Law and order was the entire message. Intolerancy was entirely that message I mean, isn't the p

see discourse, often a very online discourse maybe focus on trade de industrialization and immigration, which are mainly the online discourse People are mainly concerned about covered in the economy in healthcare and his mouth and covered the mess health care. I mean, I don't think people by this message ever going to repeal, They saw Bamako or something great right, but I don't really have a plan. I mean there's something: pretty an economic data at least be shaped in summer is, he got out a little bit more but I guess I agree with the notion that, like very much in his own head space remunerated. Just like no attempt to kind of now eight or triangulate and you're real ass. He went too far right. He cannot have this video you today, where he's like hey seniors, I'm a senior you know is actually need any rambled a fair bit. There was one of the more empathetic versions,

first line. At least what the question is: what's different between two thousand and sixteen and two thousand and twenty as far as Trump and his campaign goes, I mean, I guess you can boil it down to Trump- is the incumbent and How has a record he has now been in elected official? He now has things to his name and to his record, including the pandemic. He is no longer a fresh new thing and I mean that both from the reception of audiences and also trump himself, like Trump, I think, has has like fallen into a but of navel gazing, about his coverage in about what people think of him until that feels a little different than in twenty. Sixteen, like I don't want to get tied into like the Rich Lowry argument, but just thinking about what feels different from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, I can kind of boil it down to only spent four years as president and, like you know, reading his own news coverage

and feeling perhaps less fresh. Is it easy and all of this- and he did- I knew the euro, government band discussions of critical race theory three weeks ago, like they like, I think the deal J is banning implicit, biased training. I mean they are very focused on these cooling, cool pc issues, Rich Larry, can't say this of course is illusory is all this suggests deal. American electorate has moved on immigration and racial issues toward the democratic opposition and away from the republican position in the sort of like you know that has more quote: unquote walked. It was four years ago and Rich Lowry can't accept it either, but I think that all evidence suggests, like you said that the electorate has moved Trump has moved.

It is racial views away from his in these last four years. The other thing is that Calvin has also become its own, weird, like pc issue, where how you react, to the pandemic. Whether or not you wear a mask, at least in trumps, interpretation is seen as like this kind of boundary pushing anti pc culture thing so like they ve also expanded it into like weird, indifferent space, is beyond Pepe right exactly so. It's a limitless goes back to my theory that, like the only philosophy, the Republican Party under Trump has is just being control in party whatever the mainstream experts tell you do we're gonna, say well, fuck that you whatever you want to do. This is America. In with it instead, I would add ons was that it looks like the trunk campaign. more online than the blue think the Democrats is being the party on Twitter finding doll the things going on, but it feels like Trump is Declares that in his own here he's real,

acting the some of the stuff going on online? Whatever you think of the sixteen ninety, project, I'm not sure attacking it is reaching the average american voter feels like bite and is talking about covered the economy, education health care. What everybody else is talking about. An been tromp is sort of talking in the Republicans robins hugging at these things that they may annoy a small fraction of people but is still kind of e the New York Times, sixty nineteen prejudices not rid by that many people aren't. While I think that's a good place to leave things, we of course still do not know the result of this election, but trying to get a handle on what the dynamics are before we actually have? The result is what will be doing over the next three weeks, so there you have it. Let me run and talk about the state of the race in the Sun Bell, but first today's podcast is brought you by simply safe with simply safe home security. You can protect your whole home around the clock, its serious last

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with any new system order. There's nothing to lose go today to simply say if dot com, slash politics that simply safe dot com, slash politics in the twenty six. You know, I can't the biggest swings in the country towards Republicans happened in the rust welter of the upper Midwest and some of the biggest wings towards Democrats happened in the sun belt. Of course, this wings in the north, where the deciding factor in terms victory in large part, because the swings in the south worked dramatic enough to put Clinton over the line, but it seemed back then right after the election, like an open question about whether Democrats should embrace that new math if they wanted to win the White House or if they should focus more on winning back their old blue wall and now, after two thousand and thirteen and given all the polling we have this year, it seems clear that the old blue Wall states are more fertile ground for them in this election, but we want

again on how exactly the parties are doing in the sunbelt. It may hold indications of what the future looks like, and it will also play a big role in deciding the Senate in twenty twenty, My first question is essentially, why are democrats doing significantly better in the rush about that in the sun bout? After all of the kind of map reforming paradigm, shifting conversations that we had in two thousand sixteen? Well, we should point that these were states where Clinton underperformed her Poles so Paulo Year in election wine is not predictive. Opponents election to four years later, but still keep that in mind. We're talking about comparing poles to results less so than pollster poles, but if Biden does well with certain had the voter kind of older whites Then that's going to lead to strong performances relative to Clinton in state like a big west. Also states like main and New Hampshire, potentially and the data

that's a pretty consistent pattern based on the pulling it like those are rulers with whom Biden is doing that he was four years ago more bear the Clinton was right, you know again, remember that's tat. I gave earlier that, like twenty percent of voters did Neither can I they mostly went said what the hell's going from those around they pretty swinging voters there. Probably a lot of suburban whites and might working class voters again tilting little bit older. so I M here tells a fairly consistent story here. Remember people want to build even trends, that if a state goes from being five point, republican, leaning too whence Republican leaning than officer notes and keep going that direction now become a democratic leading state empirically not necessarily true, in fact, is a bit of mean reversion where for state goes from artless five to our plus, to actually most like a thing is a kind of bounces back a little bit halfway towards like our plus three or whatever. So the notion that, like buying this kind of getting a blend of the Obama O Slash, well maps and the Clinton sixteen map, I mean that's kind

what you see and it's kind of what you might expect to see so we're in the South Perry, have Democrats improve their lot. The most it looks like an The sixteen that basically Georgia in Texas by the poles, look to be states that they lost in the high single. It is into doesn't succeed that are going to be within five. Maybe within two in the case of Georgia's those boys running, the biggest gains are in the North Carolina I mean, do those like minded win Florida by five points. I don't leave it out. There was a North Carolina. It was pretty close in sixteen me very close in. when he is well with Biden slightly favoured there. So the biggest gains look like they're in Texas in Georgia. Florida has some gay north girl. It's very close, it looks, like ask your line, is gonna be significantly closer than I would have guessed even at this novelist swings through the present level, those of the kind of the main via think about your I'm curious. You mentioned that some of the bigger swings were in tax,

and Georgia, and so were now in this situation. Where Florida, which is a long time battleground state, is still about around state, but its close ways and, at the same time, kind of taxes and Georgia are practically tied in the way. This point so like. Why have Georgia taxes, maybe Arizona to move towards Democrats somewhat more quick, then places like Florida or North Carolina that yes, Yasser Battleground States. This year, but have always been like they haven't, moved further into Democrats column as places like Arizona. Taxes in Georgia have had this dramatic shifting, after I mean to some extent, a little surprising that North Carolina hasn't become more purpose, because it is kind of very similar to these states in the sunbelt right. Other lately by this policy has been fairly, strong in North Carolina and Florida kind of moving out of toss up status towards Lean Biden in his leads there I mean he's ahead in those states by some amount, whereas Joe

and Texas are tied. Roughly speaking in Texas effect is usually like trouble ahead, appointed to an appalling average. So I think in some ways the media just kind of fixed rates on Georgia and Texas, because their new swing states Therefore, their importance might be a little bit overrated alone. It has two centuries which makes it really important, so you think they have moved in tandem. I mean Florida artists to its own drummer. I think is one thing that can be said about Florida. Like allowed us has to do with migration People are generally moving into these sunbelt from the North and so these cities are growing their becoming more purple more blue right, you're, getting kind of more amenities that are associated with coastal, These and their behaving more alike cos suburbs at are increasingly blue. There also quite diverse may we went down to Houston for a podcast right? You drive around Houston and, like you now you see thirty different restaurants with TWAIN different languages just within like a certain they highway or something right I mean these cities are very mixed, so it's

surprising in some ways it s kind of behaving more like other parts of the country with those demographic make ups also behave. So I have a theory that I can true, but I do wonder if the Democrats didn't really campaign that hot try to win that hard in Texas in Georgian twenty sixteen and did have a lot of resources in Florida, North Carolina, so twenty thousand and eighteen We saw like a really high amount of resources and aggressive campaign. in Georgia and in Texas, and we always had those in flooring always has a North Carolina would like the last twelve fifteen years Florida I know I know, but I do think having resources in those days, is also a factor of change. Your where Beethoven, Abrams spin every dollar really tried to find every black poorest latina person out of a certain age to phone. I do think those, but TAT might have been seen. Prison North Carolina had had their Canada effort in two thousand to really get everybody out who is possibly a democratic vote

talk about the presidential level. Then we'll talk about the Senate level. Is it worth it for them? by a campaign to be spending resources and time in Texas and Georgia at this point depends on how many resources and how much time look if the question is maximizing your chance of winning two hundred and seven electoral votes than earlier this week, Georgia has a one point, eight percent chance of being the tipping point state for two hundred and seventy and Texas one point one and they're, both pretty populous states and so therefore kind of an upper voter basis to actually lower down there. Pull in fact, one electoral electoral vote Nebraska. Second congressional district is likely to be the tipping point state as all taxes, with thirty eight electoral votes. So the question here is: do you think the margin victory matters. There is no doubt that if Biden Wines with Texas,

that the media narrative about election will change and it will be. This is an epic historic blow out. The map will look, is Texas, like physically big on the map. It will look much bluer will be taken as a pretty big shock, doesn't actually translate into anything real forbidden in terms of having you know, What's a he wins by nine points. Nationally is nigh points. What are you was a success by one any different, nine points where we win sectors by telling the percentage point think so in the long run, but the clearly our goal, for a bigger Brunner map is also the question of like, but it's a bluff or not. Trapper tally AIDS by competing in these states and maybe a kind of her bluffed. Your opponent interest resources right is lots of weirdest about where the trunk campaign to spending money, but there finding the sunbelt and oddly, like not spending more money in the north, which seems super stupid, but me neither egos our challenge. They don't want to lose georgian taxes, and so anyway, there's also argument that, aside from like

I'd team feeling may be comfortable that there, when and wanting to kind of making a blow out, there's also, idea of future swing, state cultivation and making communities that you wanna, maybe foot, Mortier side feel like you. They ve been paid attention to so I think, like George, you know some of its like turning the black community out, but in places like Texas, in Arizona Texas in particular, were like hispanic. Voters have protection, perhaps leaned more conservative than in other states. Democrats might say: look we ve been out near community. You liked Joe Biden, Joe Biden, centrist Emma. You should feel comparable voting for Joe Biden and unlike Arizona, kind of like keeping up that contact with voters like hispanic voters and making sure that beer pudding in extra fieldwork, because you haven't paid much attention to those spanish speaking communities and other elections, like I think, there's a certain amount. Tending to a garden that will grow over a couple of election cycles and if you feel comfortable with your red,

might as well say like hell. Why not like weaken, then point back and say, like we ve got a record here. We were here in twenty twenty talking to you and that's good and probably in argument being made by state level activists in those maybe swing states to national democratic strategies. Also think your earlier question. You separated the protein senator, but those are really related. Questions in, like the buying campaign, has all this money. So if Conway, gauge the Texas. These northern me there, even bite and loses by two points. Maybe the cynic in it and taxes win. Georgian wines of bacon boost those candidates and there was a big thing in Texas, the Democrats might win the Texas House and nets hugely important redistricting Enzo. Therefore it affects how many? U S house, even get, so I think these things are interrelated. The buying campaign is this huge democratic party in with all this money? In yes, thickets. Every dollar was constant will in some level, if you think you're

doing decently Wisconsin you might be able to get a Senate state legislators, a house there, some suburban, districts in Georgia where more spinning The buying can't be might help even to win a district. They're. Gonna lose that state problem yeah I would say, the Biden campaign has so much money that it doesn't necessarily have to pick and choose in the way that another campaign might, and if you force the Trump card, pain to counter right with less money again why they have where this money is going? We don't know, but that creates problem. Any one thing if, like both, panes were advertising in Georgia. Then it kind of cancels out maybe If there's unilateral advertising, then it can become a bit more of a threat, see gonna play a bit of defence. Some of this this kind of bonanza of money and, like all the map, is open for Democrats, is also a little bit of like. There was a lot of talk when Trump one enduring twenty. Sixteen about how the Democrats had really just sort of let state level stuff go

go to seed, and so I think there is a lot of just like state level rebuilding work. The Democrats have felt pressure to do, and so some of that you're, probably seeing that psychology come to Baron two thousand and twenty, with lots of money sloshing around where people feel that they owe it turn state level, races and candidates. You have a house recent looking at our map here, Texas has like ten comparative house races, which is a lot for him. we do have amid a competitive house, raises some other democratic hell some of those are republican held, but it's one of the few states this year we will have a cluster of house race that could swing made the marching quite a bit in the house. I wanted to remain a little bit more on the Senate in particular, but before that arms, it has become so ash analyzed in and that's how we talk about it. Almost pie cost a lot, but is there a difference in how the Biden campaign or the trunk champion goes about campaigning in the south? Are doo Doo an issues have more salient what does

campaigning in the South look like compared with campaigning in the upper Midwest private talk about your religiosity bore a more openly. I think, by for his part, can just keep playing the centralism thing in that kind of deal. I don't know I mean Trump, I think campaigns the same way everywhere outside of like you know, if he's like West Virginia or Pennsylvania, he might say coal or fraction. But I think a lot of it is the sort of like dial a stick. I'm a cultural conservative. You don't have to worry, all campaigns that do base mobilization and appealing to swing voters. They should all campaigns do both in Iowa you're talking about where the entire electorate is white. Basically, you probably talking about me. or mobilization more so to them. Persuasion instead of less get out the vote operations the North Carolina and these others days a big focus. Your campaign has to be, how do we get people of color

who are going to vote for Democrats if they vote make sure we maximize turn out in a way that I don't think you think he is much about in look is Arthur many minorities to turn out does it has something to do with how elastic these states are. I know we measure elasticity of states at five. Thirty, eight, our southern states, just less elastic it depends which others take your time, about, but in general. Yes, in general, you have a lot of black vote, and you have a lot of conservative white voters and there Where becomes more a question of who you turn out and kind of it numbers game, slash. War of nutrition so classically a campaign that, like a button, is basically a persuasion can write. He is trying to flip over my trunk voters and retain Rhamni Clinton voters. He is ahead of us independence by huge margins, even though actually Democrats don't have as much of an edge in party it ineffective like the electorate, as they usually have ripe, and he is not necessarily done a great job of registered.

me about her just concerned about that among Democrats. So it's not surprising that buying this game seem to be more in the north than in the south. But, of course, when you're, ahead by ten points, nationally than every kind of swing, state looks good with that said, you know, I think there are upscale suburban white centre swing, voters Hispanics are actually often pretty big. Voters, especially in Texas and there's a lot up for there's we might want to distinguish like Texas in Arizona from Like Joe, so, I think, are actually quite different cases. I, let's dig in to the Senate in particular, but first so we we give Democrats a sixty eight percent chance of winning control of the centre and, of course, there are Senate races in Arizona Texas, North Carolina South Carolina there to send it raises in Georgia so the Sunday s future when it comes to control of the Senate. Parry You run us through kind of the state of play in the south for this

what seem to be the most competitive seeds, where our Democrats and Republicans doing well comparatively so Arizona, then the clearest they were, the more Kelly, the Democrat as a pretty substantial advantage interest, Only the other state that I would say the Democrats have an abandoned. This region would be in North Carolina were a cow Cunningham. Has this weird sort of sexting for lack of better term scandal? but it appears right now he's a Democrat. He appears to be had in the polls to so many areas. North Carolina, look pretty good for the demo That's right now here is on a more so as the Canada does. Any kind of scandal attest to him, so move from their network is this last me the other states I was the republicans- have an advantage. According to our model, I think they do John coordinate and taxes and a close raised, but I think he's a pretty clear favorites so South Carolina Jamie Harrison, raise fifty cents

a million dollars in the third quarter. Like he's got all this buzz. Is there not a pole? Show him tied against Lindsey. Graham, I tend to think republic in South Carolina will always be the favourite and our model, shows that without raising looks closed, and I think urban he's watching very closely. Georgia has two synod races. The challenging pauper democrats there is the rule in Georgia's. You have to get fifty percent of the vote in the Senate race to win. So in that sense it looks like both. Those races may end up in cannot run ass post election day so the democratic deficit of windows races twice in a and we those are hard raises, because of their run off really George. I think MRS be my guest b is pulling pretty well he's a Democrat. I still think that this data republicans likely to win so there's a lot of competitive races, but I still think is gonna be hard for Democrats. The breakthrough, because these are states that have a lot of white conservative, religious voters.

Jamie Harrison Racist. So interesting because, like I spoke to him at the very beginning of this campaign- and I can Parrys talk, people much called but like the idea that we are talking about before about like get out the vote as a big thing in the south, like I think in some ways he's modeling his his strategy. Unlike the Stacey Abrams thing of Lake, be a pragmatist, don't scare off swing, white voters, but also like try to turn out you're black base of of support and their combined with, like Lindsey Grand being seen as a kind of like a weird figure or like I'm, not Loved figure anymore in the state makes that such an interesting race, you could do a whole arab segment, Georgia, Senate special action. We have two Republicans running the so called jungle pray. Are you trying to our conservative one another. and now one of the democratic, worn, it is very likely to advance against one of them will have to prove it to the middle

after November. Third, it's a very interesting race, also point out four cow Cunningham and his all school sexting scandal how quaint and barely even registered on the radar screen of coverage. We ve lived out Dog Jones here, who is a democratic and combat Alabama. What's the state of that ways are Democrats planning on losing that raised at this point, in fact doing it into how many Senate seats they need to win. Yes, he's been down and delicate digits in he voted for impeachment. I think, is enough against bear it. My senses, Doug Jones himself at this point- is auditioning Morphine jobs in the bite ministration, then he is taking both to conserve he's see. Alabama gives us like, is really hard like trumps. Can we Alabama they? Probably twenty five points in this is hard for Jones in June, barely be Roy, more probably one of the worst cynic. Candidates of all time

and so this is a big Jones. I've we're, not Jones the Democrats, a sort of assume they have to enforce in seeds, not three in part, because Jones is assumed to be a defeat. If he won there would be a huge upset. You mentioned this earlier Perry that Jamie Harrison raised fifty seven million dollars and the third quarter of this year and worth mentioning that that breaks the all time record for quarter fund raising formerly held by better or work by twenty million dollars, so we have seen massive amounts of fund raising from Jamie Harrison to Amy Mc Grath in Kentucky arrays that she will almost certainly lose. What does all this money me having Does it actually change the dynamics of Senate raises because we have taught previously about how money can make a difference in house races, but does it make a difference and statewide races of course, it makes some difference, I mean there's those cushion whether its money itself that matters or whether what money

a signal of a strong candidate, so matters, but it matters broadly lesson. Instead for couple region, summer is like the amounts cancer raising now, especially in a relatively cheap state, to advertising like South Carolina. so kind of off the charts like there's gonna, be some diminishing returns. For two and a lot of money comes from out of state, it's a less reliable signal. A voter enthusiasm within that state than it might have been and three kind of higher partisanship and general means that, like there's, only her receptive to persuasion through advertising or door knocking, etc, so the Harrison exam. politically guinea. The next point is, is pretty where he raised a lot of money once Poles showed him doing close against ram so authorities that he's already doing well in the money's in allaying indicator. The second also being that he had a really good debate performance and I think a lot of evil nationally saw there. He basically told

to be a man and admit that he flip loved on Supreme Court appointees in the last year of a president's term. So I think Harrison has raised a lot of money in part because he's doing well in the polls looking, how we are forecasting some of these Senate races in the south. It looks like we're expecting a decent amount of tickets wedding so bite is running significantly ahead of, say us off Georgia and Hager and taxes. Then Senate candidates like Mark we in Arizona and Jamie Harrison in South Carolina are running significantly ahead of Biden. Why is that so mix Sally just lost a certain recent twenty eighty in areas- and I think, is pretty clear they make Sally is not liked by the Arizona voters. Molecule is when you hit Joe There is because air,

as voters are lukewarm what's wrong, but I think we have a lot of evidence. They just don't like Mc Sally, and maybe she stopped running things Harrison in ram is interesting because it looks like there's some amount of people in South Carolina. As I wrote about those who are for Trump, but not for gram in Ireland. Some of those who look like their conservatives according to Paul so again it goes back. Maybe gram is usually unpopular Silas Unpopular, then Trump Isn T the approval rating data shows that as well, I mean we're seeing some evidence of like in Georgia and Texas, but I still don't think georgian taxes are kind of like generic democratic as generic Republican, and I expect do not see much tickets in Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, we actually get the result. I think those races arises where Biden and the democratic candidate trumpeter probably gonna, get similar numbers. I don't see a big difference in a suit Canada's. Maybe they will do so.

in writing. Bg sallying grammar clearly a little bit unpopular. I guess maybe taxes the one place, I'm curious, because it seems like also in two thousand eighteen. We saw that I come within two and a half point. Of beating time crews, but Governor Adam was never in doubt. That raise seems like there's. A chunk of Republicans were happy to vote for John Cournand, who just really don't like tromp or really didn't, like TED crews, for example, but don't have a problem with the more classic old school Republicans like John Cournand or Gregg at it does I try when people's analysis of the state I mean, there's kind of classic kind of Reagan, conservatism among their public and party in Texas. It's not particularly trompe in Texas was a bad state for Trump in the twenty six seem primary part because a tag, crews, the trip- was now hugely popular there. Anyway, you not also state,

It has a pretty sophisticated public, an apparatus right, so it would make sense if people are distinguishing were two different flavors of republican candidates there. I also agree with Perry's analysis that, like Mc Sally was a caddy who was kind of rejected by the voters two years ago. She's brought back, maybe not the smartest idea where, Z, grandma, think Assembly, who gets the worst of both worlds. Now, where the never trump people who are moderate are now like. Ok, well, now he's some under a counterweight to Trump, but the consumers might not fully trust him either answer he's got issues on both sides timetable. North Carolina had just been someone who was very kind of underperforming in lack lustre and had been under forming the margin there? Although will see post sexting scandal that holds up it's kind the weaker and comments that you would think. I think actually interesting. One is maybe Joanie Ernst and Iowa who has fallen behind in polls there. Even though the presidential race is a toss up cause, she was It is kind of a arise,

star. That was a bit more surprising. As Europe is up, your eyes are gonna, be on the Supreme Court. Confirmation hearings this week. Do we expect any of that to shake up the race for this? it's hard to know. I mean there's so much of their news going on. I don't you never, since for the Senate hearings or continued Trump covered stuff will be the lead story. For, like the average voter this week season time just said that she is not certain that this time the judge any country where it is the right person to replace Ginsberg. She has doubts she has doubts, Susan Collins has doubts folks, breaking news here on the five thirty eight election, tuckers yeah liquid, the news broke of a second see it didn't seem to help the GNP in Senate racism. In there not very much polling between that and like six another new stories happening, but it seemed like actually, unlike those after a liner and North Carolina. The Poli was not good. Republicans after that, so so I don't know. I mean There are some downside risks for Democrats here. If they attack bear it too much personally or if the court packing becomes an issue.

I also have some Republicans now saying explicitly: hey we think trumps might lose here. So you need to have a GNP Senate for checking balance. You mine I, that you want a little balance here so too interesting dynamic. So I would have said this doesn't matter too much, but I do feel like two things. It happened one here, listen- seems to be raising a lot of money instead of taking advantage of the fact that people don't like grim reasons that are think a think. A ladder involved idea he flipped loved on the sort of Supreme Court issues I think in South Carolina. I thought this approach. Help. Graham, I now not sure about that. The second thing is like I think the news, at least from the hearing today is not going to be about bear it at all for most voters, but the idea that the Republicans, particularly MIKE Have you talked about the idea of this after they headaches Coopers, redder event. Perhaps at the White House now. I've had a sin of hearing that appears to not be a bite

by the best coolly practices, so I think again for the republic. In brief, and overall- and I would say that about all again- it's despair percent of hearing. I think the news might be again. This party still won't take. this virus seriously enough, and I think that's bad for all their can is at an end, day. The media is talking about covert overall is a bad, even the Republicans height wrong. I think we can leave things there. So thank you need. Thank you Gala Day, you click scan and thank you very thick skin My name is Galen droop, Tony chow. Isn't the virtual control room Clare Better Gary Curtis is on audio editing. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at five, thirty, eight thirty, eight com. You can also treated us with any questions. What comments if you're a friend of the show, leaves a rating or review in the apple, cast store or tell someone about us? Thanks were listening, and

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