« FiveThirtyEight Politics

The Three-Day Shutdown

2018-01-22
The Senate voted to end the shutdown less than three days after it began. Did Democrats get what they wanted? The team also discusses the uptick in Trump's approval rating.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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welcome to the five thirty politics. But guess my name is Jody abrogate the government shut down is over, or should we say that as we're we're courting, it appears to be over the centre has passed the house. I guess technically still going to vote, but look we can declare, I think, in the southern really crazy. Qualitative in this that the very quick greedy government shutter over Senate Democrats have agreed to a short. Spending bill in exchange for a promise from Senate Majority leader Mitch, Mcconnell that they will get a vote on deferred immigration. Belike, Hey Dhaka, just had a sticking point for a lot of this so here to discuss it. I hope you have. You takes red, is our usual crew, minus mates over mates, not here and a clear Malone politics supporters here, clear, happy birthday, think steady. They ended the government shut and just for your birthday, it specialists We can Harry entered his ear. Hello, Harry Happy Birthday, Clare, Malone, one of the cruellest that I know hello
re about a welcome to Monday the shut down as over clear. How does it feel to have both of your birthday wishes? thirdly, it over and Harry I'm giving you that owed both come true right off the bat. I guess I'm over them that voice here on the phone graciously laughing at our horrible jokes? Is five thirty senior writer Perry, Bacon Junior, who is in Washington DC and his journey yesterday? Perry welcome. Welcome high ethical, her things! so we're going to talk about. Obviously, the end of shutter island later in the show we're going to talk a little bit about Trump's approval rating, how it's picked up in recent weeks and a little bit about kind of particularly the gender dynamics within that approval rating. But talk about the shutdown right after I just quickly brag about the Eagles go into the super regulations showed at its very exciting mic falls.
Also responsible for ending the shut down, I'm told so what is it about the Sunday three weeks ago? Do it for me to brag and then one day, two weeks from yesterday for me to get very depressed when they lose the patriots again, but for now happy, ok, Perry! Let's go actually right into some of the specifics of how this vote went down, and then we could talk on some of the largest should gain from ship and sort of whom, how its being spun and so forth, there were a number of notable Democrats who did not vote for this short term spending. That kind of held the line so to speak in the Senate and said we want to shut down. To continue You'd have to name all of them, but where that, but what do you make of that group? And what do you make of that decision by that group? You mainly have, beyond the most
Campbell, irises and the earth until around. We are the more liberal members. Here you hand everyone running for President eighty, that I hope that a uniform rather than that Europe had a group of three the centre was absolutely vital. Three way, the Democrats, you had the sort of Red stayed group Jones, Clare, mechanical people like that who were nervous about this. In the beginning, you had a group in the middle, like Chris Coon's Mark Warner, ten Kane people who are democratic and pre salad, blue states, but I feel a little bit diversity, not in favour of the idea of Goma shut down that much and then you had a more liberal group calmly Harris deliberate among them. Who were pushing this thing. We cannot back down on Doc up but Clare to your point, if you look at the list people who said we will not back down Dhaka. We are not going to vote to end this shutdown, Jill Brand her Sanders, Elizabeth WAR in you say: ok, those are the most liberal members
the of the Senate. That could also say these are preparing. These are people who are lining up for twenty twenty. So why does that group? Take this stand at this moment there have been, But you know something like health care where a bunch of these same people got up over many months ago and said we want single payer system were introducing this bill. Basically, we know it's not going anywhere, but it becomes one of these sort of litmus test for twenty twenty, and I think it's kind of the idea of your plan to a liberal, riled up democratic base? And then you know you ve also got four people voting on the resolution condemning the bell. You ve got people with the United States with a lot of dreamer, so Cortez Master in Nevada. Finally, in California, and then you ve got to me your classic old liberals right widened in Oregon in particular he said you know your dear just kind of seeing these people who will likely be in the thick of of primary voters tend to be a little more ideological. You know they're taking their
you stand and by the way you know it's actually Republicans are sort of sympathetic and in many as if you look at polling to the darkest So it's also it certainly pandering to a liberal base, but I actually think it's like a while. It was illegal wilds swing to take? I think there are other issues the Democrats could could have shut the government. Over- and it would have been a lot more inflammatory, MRS, I feel that this is in some ways like an easier one, more sympathetic, one but does it say anything that on a relatively high profile mom like this, the people who are lining up to be the sort of titular head The party deputy president for the Democrats are the ones who are taking this kind of more hard line stands. Does it speak to any sort of disconnect within the party? Harry ones have been on the other two things number one. I want to just add one interesting vote from that role: cornetist, that John Tester, who represents Montana the United States and of the senior sent from that state, the democratic up for real
in two thousand and ten also voted against this, he claims had nothing to do with doc up. But it was an interesting vote. Nonetheless, someone that kind of sticks, animal sea of Republicans trying to play that up in the mid terms that are coming up. Look the polling suggests that the only people who thought it was worth shutting down. The government over Dhaka were Democrats and if you are running in a democratic primary in two thousand and twenty for president, then obviously yes you're going to want to support things that the Democratic based wants, but just because it something that the democratic base wants doesn't necessarily mean something that the general public at large wants. So there may be a disconnect between Democrats and what the base wants, but there isn't necessarily the disconnect between Democrats in the Senate and the Emma cracks in the house want, and what, Actually, voters in the center of the Isle want another people. Remember this, while that without allowing other cases- and this is my soul, harry- are people going around,
no, that's actually a really good Nathaniel reading I mean if we look at the polling from past shutdowns, we saw that most people, in fact pretty much forgot. The effects were short lived and that by the time the elections actually came, the polling had returned to what it was prior to the shut down, whether it be the ninety five. Ninety six shutdowns Gingrich versus Clinton, the two thousand thirteen shut down which were sent in house Republicans again, Barack Obama. So that's where we're talking about this, because it is an issue in shutting down the governments. A big deal, at least for certain people are population, but I think over there long term, unless this issue pops up again, which I suspect it may very well. But if this is the one shot deal with this, I don't think that this ultimately has a larger. So obviously that the takes are flying and spin is the spin spinning Did you talk a little bit about how both sides Democrats Republicans, are trying to frame this end of the shut down and might mean both sides are kind of trying to claim it as a win,
I mean the republicans- are basically saying we didn't give up on Daca. The Democrats are demanding a vote on Daca in the path of the Daca. It didn't happen and the democratic thing will you commit to some kind of vote on Daca, so we got we want it. I actually think in this case the republican position makes more sense to me, because even so, they Mcconnell's committed some kind of vague votes. Four February does not clear what they are voting on. Is inactive it'll, be a democratic idea by Paraphernalia Republic proposal and also the thin. It was always the easiest thing. The real question about Dhaka is always been. What can path with a majority of Republicans in the house and what will I'm a trump sign as to me Democrats in advance. Very far, either one of those questions in this debate in getting a Senate vote
shut down the more progress perry. Correct me. If I'm wrong, but there's some, what that were the Democrats are trying to trot out too, is that Mcconnell his promise, a debate by the end of this week on immigration, that's another sort of trying to to hang out as something as a small victory. It's part of me wonders if they, if you get a little bit of cold feet, if you say while right now this is sort of like a many shut down. The might be a blip on the american brain for awhile, and if we draw this out into, I don't know how long the longest shutdown has been if you basically draw out into event an event that people remember, you risk irritating people of the also might say, or as in the liberal base are saying you might get something actually done, so I feel it gets a weird. It's the cautious politicians that have sort of one out a little bit right. The idea that you know, I think a lot. Politicians are small, see conservative, particularly national
politicians- and I do think that your kind of seeing this in your seeing the democratic base in some quarters be a bit angry about it. What was the hand that Democrats actually had to play here? They do not control the house, they do not control the presidency and while they certainly can disrupt things in the Senate, it's not like they can something in the Senate on their own. So I'm just not sure whether or not there was a quorum quote winning hand for Democrats. Maybe there was less. But losing hand or something along those lines where they can claim that they fought to draw, but I think, ultimately, to cut your last year. I think that Senate minority later humor think recognized that there really, what we will mean a source
Let me only programme a little bit so there's two days against. I guess, since Friday sought on how much of a narrative concern of saddle in over a couple days, but I guess there's a there- was a chance that Democrats hold this line and the public the pole, It shows that the blame is coming down hard on Republicans, because everyone saying Trumpery Republicans have a majority. They own all three chambers, they can't get it together. This shut them is totally on them. As Democrats just get the sort of sit back and wait for Republicans, the cave and- maybe that was the pull the winning hand and maybe that just didn't materialise, a sort of forcefully as they may be. And so here we are you. I mean that that is certainly the the winning hand as drawn up. But again the problem comes down to the numbers, and that is that, no matter how hard you are, as a Democrat to argue that Republicans have major these everywhere the Democrats could shut that when a courtyard a government by not providing votes in the Senate and that
at the end of the day, and if you look at the pulling, the polling did suggest that people did not want the governments down over Dhaka, and that with some I have been arguing for over a month now and not with something that the CNN Paul found this past Friday, and I I don't They lost that. I don't think they want. I don't know of any one lost or one. I would think you can win or lose a two and a half day shut down, right I had happened over the weekend during a during a play off C4 shut down its a tree, the tree falls in a forest, and no one is there d, be no didn't make a sound. It's kind of like if it shut down, happens over a free. They Saturday Sunday. The really even have that. Much of the report just pure talking point of AIDS fodder, for I guess a narrative that may or may not stick Perry in terms of the sort of court uncle deal was struck today. Enough Democrats, to the gave Trump and Republicans a few weeks in return for a few weeks of a sort of extended continue resolution in return, the promise and for a vote on darker, and then they did get six,
years of chip funding, which is not nothing but that was kind of what on the table last Friday as well rights. Those wasn't it just kind of like tread water for two days and then just do the thing. That was that everyone was sort of sitting on Friday anywhere within the Friday. A bill was for weeks and this without a sobering, sixteenth, Manichean, this was the February, so was like slightly shorter Agus so with about through that the only real change from there, and so it is hard to say in a big, become there, but I guess Mcconnell had not fully committed to some kind of Dhaka vote before so I think he is now more committed under one roof. Here is a Mcconnell did not just commit that vote to the Democrats. He also like Jeff Wagon Dan Lindsey Gram are important factors: Europe, if they are they their position, they vote.
Hence the sea, are on Friday. There is that of a middle ground here, where and from a common promising them is gonna, be a having met as mortgage. The republicans- and you know I am putting they wouldn't that with their role is deemed to be effective, they are trying to fit a really crap is compromise and, Graham is tried to build with alliance with trauma. Measure was gonna work or not, and that's the end, and I think that will be imported thirty three exactly that. Ultimately, we have to think of it as a policy outcome that everybody can agree to and Graham and tromp are big factors and that, along with bigger ion yes, let's talk about them. That means- someone's name who we haven't been hearing this much much this afternoon in this resolution, to the shut down his the president, Donald Trump and you know it doesn't feel like anything in this agreement- solved the trump problem which, as forward over the weekend is that he doesn't really have a strong role. He doesn't have a strong policy preference, both Republicans and
that's appear to not be clear what kind of guidelines they're getting from him. So Perry is today an indication that solving the show problem is still tee, DE or is it an indication that maybe stuff can happen without trump at all, and that's the way that it's gonna be over the next few weeks, I deal he doesn't have any proper lightly books about the staff is confused or Kelly and Miller taken over his brain are that's what that's a little bit fills going, but that's a both, but that's it ram and tumor are sort of claiming whether that's true always what you today, but they sort of say that The present hearty doesn't do with your point of view as you want it's easy to blame the out of them the waving the residents, so I thought, with even Miller, hired by Donald Trump, just like the abandoned, was just like John Kelly Worth Cetera. So it seems to me the bill in the house, the trumpet endorsed, if, as the fairly,
Will the conservative bill would like limit legal immigration? It would build the entire united panel lot more border funding. If not in order to build the house. The troubles endorse this by due to our committee chairman Good LAD and that's what's the problem then I will join you. It's a bill that a Lotta republic, evident support is also billow out of Democrats out. If we don't support either seller either Trump vision of immigration, it is quite hawkish. I mean one of the core question here: is I'm not sure Donald Trump who ran for president on the campaign he did is better cited. It up signing a duck, a bill period and so is worth considering. What would have to be it like a little bit like he's, moving the goalposts he said he wanted a wall the Democrat, so we can form part of the wall of any sort of thing we have legal immigration limit is not clear to me where the line is for him. I don't know it. You don't think about it. Barack Obama never really sign any beagle. Amnesty style build into law,
because you never got through the Congress. So the idea Donald Trump, wants to stand there and sign a law that will be a kind of amnesty. I'm kind of skeptical of you could also make the argument that a lot of the people in the legislative branch maybe prefer not having. Trump mucking up negotiations like you, can have conversation in a room without the Trump sort of bomb, throwing elements you know of surprise and say: ok, we'd rather
we'd. Rather just do this, our selves and kind of have him do sort of anodyne. You know tweets on the side, but but sort of leave him out of the process. If he's gonna be too much of an element of surprise, they are men of his. What he has to contribute is basically tweet saying that we should end the filibuster in the United States Senate, which just will not happen, at least a corn. Everything that I understand about the Senate body in how it feels about that particular issue at this time that maybe it is best that at times a separate. Let me just talk about the Perry Point for a second was the idea being trump and immigration. We spoken about this about nine trillion times on this podcast. Now, if there is one issue that help Trump, when the republican primary was immigration, it was very, very important to his voters and it is also an issue, perhaps its signalling issue. We don't know if it's because of immigration verses, what its merely signalling, but that politicians views republican politicians, views on immigration,
has correlated fairly highly with how they perform in primaries. The more caucus. You aren't immigration, the better. You do so This is a tough issue for Republican, so I completely understand from an electoral standpoint, why they're so hesitant to compromise, and especially the president who made such a big deal out of it, lets circle, Back Democrats in, and I think that such a rap on on this but parried you feel like we were, discussing this before the end of the shut down earlier today that I felt like Democrats were drawing taking a hard stance here. Affording out for this shut down that? Maybe this straight inside of the Democratic party heads were pushed Democrats. It a large to sort of like play. Rob our politics in a way that maybe Republicans had been had done more in the past, is that at the window now, because Democrats now sort of cut a deal or do you still feel like this was a moment where that's harder line for Democrats started to assert itself.
With a moment about you know like I wrote a piece of work by uniting Tuesday night into Wednesday. Predicting the Democrats would not do it shut down the dim arena in its, and I was wrong, I'm in civic innocence. I was not uninformed, something in there was more than democratically have been sort of pro government at Inherit Brown said somewhere a few weeks ago. He voted with a shudder with a web here he said in a word Democrats. We don't shut down the government, but I think I'll deal with last week and I think I point to the most is you have heard of on pod America, if we, this liberal, Podcast Dudley well hosted by these echo, Barmouth, Afro, yes and native them, they had a website name of twitter following two and they were doing a correcting of every member of the last few days about where they are they, the members who were for the shut down or called the fight club, the members who work in it
saving, with a waffle collaborated with a livelier believed. It was sort of like the way, the right wing and talk radio kind of pushes members to take more strong positions, more parliamentary with if the person I believe that, like you, thought democratic that offer the group intervene. What was doing the same thing and really tracking and really pushing the members are. I think it was hardly ever TIM Cain and Mark Warner who I dont think really want to be involved the shut down, but there are another blue stay. They think they might want to think about the twenty clean up future running for national office. There in his bedroom placed the other right there they, but There were in his hard petition. Worthing debate pushed him to take this position. I do think it does suggested Jerusalem. The Democrats have ignored their base more Pelicans having, I dont think that, maybe not is true. There would have been five years ago, course can one or both went too awful house today
put it as their loaded. They voted there from Virginia, which has a lot of federal employment, and I think that puts them in particular. Pocket but on this I mean, let's you now. I know I know the tea party parallels are probably not totally there, but just as an exercise to any of you see, this fall one of these senators or when in Congress getting challenged from the left and one of the talking points being this person caved on the shutdown when the, person had a chance when this democratic establishment Democrat had a chance to take a stand, they they voted to to kick the camp. The road map is gonna, be a salient issue. In that way. Erika I mean there will be brief, opposite talking point, no doubt by people who are challenging senators from the left. The question is whether that actually cells that all right and I'm not necessarily shore that it well? I point out. You know, for instance, one democratic. I thing might be vulnerable to a primary
You can worded differently give given its the top to systematic California. Diane finds right, Zack, oh by the way vote. Had you ve already right. So you know, I I think it's it's gonna be a trickle down to where she bought it I shut down both times. That again is a bill today, correct track or so she's, taking elaborate she's, taking a leper stance- and I note not That'S- probably the smart playing a state like telephone without elector. I am hesitant to believe that will be a major player come later in the year, but certainly level challenges might try to make it one. Let's leave it there Stop we're gonna talk about trumps approval and republican prospects in the generic ballot, which have picked up over recent weeks and drank and a sense of why we'll do that after a quick word from last week's romance This means Punkahs is bought you mind one eight hundred flowers at one hundred flower can always find something fun and exciting to surprise the most important people in your life or even the most unimportant,
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politics for ten dollars off your first subscription order. That's bluebottle, coffee, dot, com, slash politics, one more time: blue, bottle, coffee doc I or back or now, over the past five or six weeks presents trumps. Approval. Reading has crept up from a low of thirty six percent to just over forty percent. Its may become back down in the last day or two yet come back out has maybe we're scooping ourselves here in saying it might just be noise, but anyway the dubious also from your Harry shaved, the viewpoints of the democratic led in the generic ballot. So I Askew Harrington? What's going on here, is a significant as this noise. What's goin, on noise, perhaps in the long run, but it's pretty clear when you look across service that down from separating did climb from you know its low in the MID Thirty's
will a little bit about forty percent and now, according to the five hundred and thirty eight tracker, as we speak at this very hour, it's back down to thirty eight point: seven percent and I guess the question was: why did it take up some people you that it was the tax, the elder republicans passing attacks cut that, although became slightly more popular in the surveys was stolen, negative according to the average, pulls the other three which I kind of by but more from being honest, is that down Trump was able to stand news mostly we had the holiday season come about Trump hasn't said anything how ridiculous that really penetrated the media? There was that whole gate thing why, in the stable gene right in the stable genius, but nothing like that's reassuring, rightly says that Bulgaria, so you know, I think that the lack of attention trump here especially you know, we talk about the shut down a trumpet, wasn't receiving that much attention. I think that general thought process
when he stays out of the news. Has numbers tend to go up, but as the Congress has return and as she is opened his a little bit more people are focusing back and on politics instead of their holiday plans. It does seem that his position has deteriorated at least slightly, but what here we are again and another week or two clear: either we gonna jump in on this and curious if you feel like theirs is significant, are you seeing it in manifested in any other way that Trump as may be sort of stabilizing, etc? This is an argument for stabilizing, but I do think it interesting that you can have this approval rating thing take up a little bit, although per Harry's notice. That is going down a little bit, but there's a lot of sense but still coming out about Trump. Like the Stormy Daniels thing, amazing I mean villages are listeners who do not know is a woman who claimed to have had an affair with Trump and then was allegedly paid money to keep quiet about it and that's it
kind of like, been to sort of like background noise to shut down, which, to me is fascinating. That, like a SEC story in american politics, is sort of second tier to a government shut down. But I think that says something about sort of like the general expected, status quo for Trump, so yeah there might mean, like Trump himself, hasn't tweeted about this stuff, which is probably why it has risen the level of aid it you know a tier news which, by the way, might say something about the way we decide. What eighty or news, but whatever I mean. I think that government shutdown deserves to be eighteen news, but now I think some of this is just like nothing crazy, as happened in the past two weeks. I don't know, I don't have much interesting to say if you like it enough, if it is what it is parry
I held out of a different than what Harry was getting on with the weather. He went up. A little bit are a pointer to the post. All that came out of any item back at thirty five, thirty, six and mash about the one thing that I have noticed, though ammo I'm on, are among our trump poultry operating tracker on our side. Right now, if you look it from January, when he started June, twenty seventh tunny seventeen, the third, often about forty five percent approval in any, went down about a point among the where he was an August at about thirty seven and then from August. Until now, he is pretty much hover between thirty seven and thirty. Eight the whole time, though it so that they can join me in an event like he lost, like eight percent,
quickly. Maybe we will do what sort of who bought it primarily aided him, but he doesn't have thirty three percent, but a sort of survived, Charlottesville, end Shithole, gay and the NFL controversy, and so on, so that that thirty with everything is where things like, he is likely to be formally humbler, while in long if he is generally Canada, Republican on policy and that sort of erratic on other matters, the I think that there is something definitely be set about that. I also point out, as I pointed out last week, is that if we look at all president's basically since Truman, the average net change prove a rating from you July August. You know basically, six months in your first term, To now is bout zero points, some go down. Some go up, so it's not that surprising to me that Trump hasn't lost ground. Perhaps we all thought he would lose ground
she had lost ground to beginning, although most presence do that are perhaps she thought he would have lost ground because He says so many different things that are tagged is being and so by. A number of people also make the point that, like shit Holgate, why would that take a nosedive on his approval rate? necessarily, it's it's, maybe a crude expression of why a lot of people how much is mine our lives, which a hard stance on immigration? So I don't know, maybe if you now, if you like, from your like yeah, I say in what he thinks I will support this up. It's also plausible that his approval things would have kept going down. Had it not been for an economy that by most metrics is doing quite well, he does much better on economic Measures when you asked whether or not you approve or disapprove of the present job on the economy is basically natty. On that, basically even approval and disapproval and
It would generally expect you know of a long term. One president is far below fifty percent approval. He turned a have mean reversion. That is, if you're far above it, you tend to come down. If you far below, you tend to come up and Then he really hasn't come up that much and given the straw. Economy? I think perhaps argues that some of this stuff maybe has had an effect. I think there are numerous ways you can kind of look at it Other interesting dynamic. What you wrote about this morning Harry is the sort of gender split. So you want your walkest through kind of that gender gap and introduce approval rating and especially how a comparison bow to where it was safe. A year ago or in two thousand sixteen when he during the election or right after he was elected shore on. I should point out that I correct this article Catherine Castille, and we have a number of Lovely graphics, lovelier from Julia Wolf and our interactive team is top notch here you know, if you look at it, we basically
we will we? U survey monkey data by the way they Paul? You know every day, every week, every month throughout the year when it's over six hundred thousand interviews If that we were you, so you know, I got a lot of data in there we see, essentially, is that not surprisingly a very large gender gap in its basically started on day one and its continued and has been relatively consistent. It's about a fifteen point guy and what I mean by that is say, the President's Providing among men is fifty three percent than among women with tender argued be at thirty, eight percent. So that's a very large gap, especially when you put it into a historical context. When the presidential campaign took place, we saw a record gender gap. Between the support that down from got among men and women and how men and women split their vote between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and that is something that has continued on. This is far larger than the gender gap that we saw for Barack Obama. Soda put it this way right now we have a fifteen percentage point difference in approach
between tramp among men and women for comparison, the difference by gender and former president. Obama's approval rating gouts weekly surveys in December, not and December. Two thousand and nine was never greater than six percentage points, so this is more than two times that gender gap that we were seeing. This is a huge huge split among men and women and sometimes shows itself. You know in a generic congressional ballot as well. So I wouldn't be surprised if get a large gender gap going into this year's mid term elections and the general as the gap.
Is: approval has maybe tick damp. Has the gap stayed the same or is the gender gap widening the gap itself? Among the general population does seem to be staying stable. However, we do see perhaps some patterns among different groups, one that stuck out to me- that I think was the testicles significant was among republic. Can women verses republican men so then, the first month what we saw was about a three point: gender gap and in the last month of two thousand seventeen we saw a seven point: gender gap between republican men and women, and that in itself is a very, very large gap within party. You know if you go back to Barrack Obama and two thousand sixteen the cooperative congressional action survey. We saw that you know what party. The gap was never more than you know, too percentage points you go back for George W Bush back in two thousand, and the American National Action survey was never was pretty much a one percentage point or less. If you look at between Republican
Republican women and democratic men and democratic women, so you get a very, very large gender gap, even within party at the scene, clearly reactionary republican women in particular movement. There. Man, like it's a group we just keep mentioning over and over on this point, the numbers kind of, for instance. On that point, this shouldn't be to me that surprising, right in so far is that you know if their two groups that President trump his kind of gone made comments about that some people might find offensive its women, and it's you know, and in its also minority groups, which is something will get into a little bit later on. So it shouldn't be that spreads out well, say, and I think this a key point- there really wasn't much of a gender gap controlling for party in the two thousand and sixteen results. That is at least among
What can the Republic Command and republican women given bout? An equal share of support for Donald Trump, and so, if this is a new development in this hall should commit terms it could, in fact, although it's a small difference, it couldn't fact make a big hence, especially in swing districts, where there are lots of republican women and say the suburbs of Philadelphia, where you could see a number of swing, states, right, this link, Hillary Clinton is not about anymore and people might not feel the the gut thing to say to hold their noses and say why. I guess I gotta go with tromp or phone the blank. You know, republic, He supports travel, certainly interesting, but of course So the women's marshes round the country this week this weekend, which I think proved that this is a a voting block voting force, that is, that is gaining steam and is gonna, be no them telling proven there's an election. Yes, it will see this, for there was one The charts and parallel to you, but I discuss jumped out at me, which was there was a charter,
peace, that showed the responses to whether people think there should be more women in elected office and it's broken up by part by gender and the sort of number that jumped to me. I every every sort of split said- has increased in the last year more people saying there should be more women elected to office, but for republican women. It jumped by thirty one percent, which was pretty significant jump so Perry. I don't if you have a reaction to that, and just in general the idea I don't know, there's a conversation breaking out there. You can see in d C or elsewhere that more and more women should be in office. Mama. Women are headed for office, a big job, and I noticed this storied? Who is there generally the pulling up to now shown on the idea of women more. You know we have more women and offers a partisan, thereby meeting democratic male and female. Could you be more women, republican, male and female
generally don't care that much about that issue are there tend not to, and within get within showing in this pulling a shilling Isabel republican men nothing more that the thing that morbid republican women if a huge job point, sixteen twenty your pop probably want and that we need more women about expresses twenty seventeen. Fifty nine percent of women are programme is a big majority, a pretty clear majority growth of thirty one percent more for the big number was nineteen percent increase from sixty to eighty seven among democratic men vaguely more women in politics. I think those are too big here that I think that does go to the heading. It goes to again Hilary though the ballot on that issue is left about Hilary now. The question is that of a Hilary question one, but I do think there's something about. You know me too because we're having in the country that I think are a raven the issue that women issues differently, particularly the focus on in the sort of how both parties, I think didn't
much about the sexual assault on Capitol Hill and you can see women are leaving it at issue going forward. So I do think they're that Gabba there's a recognition throughout politics. There should be more women involved, but I think the tickly republican women had this big growth and I think it will end up staying more republican women run for office again, if you're saying already, and I think in the next democratic primary numbers are staying, I think there'll be a girl, but it will be more sensitive to the fact that didn't like Hilary for reasons that were somewhat gender alive. And in all they will view camel hair a jailer bran etc defined than they viewed. Hillary Clinton one. Put on the republican women? then seeing more of a place in the republic inside for women in office. Into Nicky Hayley, who has become so another of a little called hero in a certain part of the right for being Ellie, confrontational and the United Nations, and we know president, you know she is perceived as being part of a highly competent figure.
In administration, that is also viewed as highly incompetent. More DIS organ so. I think there is also some something to be said for a couple of high profile republican models of of public servants and I'd also point to some, unlike Marcia Blackburn, very Trump Republican running for Senate in Tennessee, but also sort of this a polished high profile woman on the right, so I think there's also in a fair way of Sarah Palin. They are not, and I think that that perhaps says something there is one thing that to me does seem to be the case. Looking at this data, we didn't necessarily right too much about the peace, although we did hint at it certainly is that the gender gap among Democrats is smaller than it is among Republicans right now, and I think that which gender gap on this particular question I dont be more will now as well about about both on both most mean as
I'm talking about, if you look on the gap between the percentage, both on this question, which, as you know, percentage of responded to agree that the country would would be better off with more women office. Among Democrats, the gap is two point. Eighty nine percent then say that now in two thousand seventeen eighty seven percent of men Democrats at two point gap there Republicans Can the baseline is lower, but for women Republicans it's now up to fifty nine percent, and for repair block and men its. Although it did grow, is it only forty two percent there's a fifteen point gap there among Republicans agenda gap, prison only a two point gap, a gender gap among Democrats, and that something we ve also seen in approval rating is the gender gap has grown among Republicans and, if anything has perhaps shrunk a little bit among Democrats and that something that I think is rather interesting. Perhaps as per the reason why Nicky Haley's been kind of being pumped up is to try, I think, there's some not a feeling of helplessness, but a feeling of
let's get control the situation. We need more women heroes within the Republican Party, yet exactly sure how to freeze this question. But I'll tell you everything. I know what I mean is the effect of more women running for office. The end more women in office. There is the larger effective that that there are more women elected official. So it will change the kind of policies that get past or more that when there are female candidates on the ballot, it brings out a different kind of electorate, and it's really about the voters mobilise because of the women who really not a question of conceit. I wasn't sure I guess my question is: should we be focusing on asking of women promote softer policies agreed, I'm just I perhaps I'm asking when we talk about this wave of women who are going to run for office? Should we should be looking at women that, though the group of candidates,
There are female and talk about kind of how that's going to change policies, or should we be saying when more women are on the ballot, it's going to drive more women to come out to vote. It's gonna change, sort of electorate in general and others are related, but I did that MRS read. The focus beyond the candidates are on the voters unsay. Like Thank you are seeing in both parties more more women running for office. I think someone like Marcia Blackburn will be promoting classic Republican, since its you know, like. I dont think that the people who are running for office are gonna immediately in the next year for years change their parties per se. I also would say, might refrain about me to movement, which is cultural change. In my personal opinion, and these sorts of things do not come from the government right, you know You don't get a change in the way that the culture treat women or to treat sexual harassment from legislation through Congress. I just don't think that so I mean that's
sort of smashed in answer, but to return with the question was, but now here talk this important question. I was just going to say that I think this is more about the campaigns themselves being run in a more respectful tone towards women. I think that that's what this is mostly, but I don't think that more people are less. People are necessarily than the turn out. Perhaps will change it, but I think that will recognise that the tone and the language that's being used will not perhaps be disrespectful as it was, I think, along our course. It will be sorry, you you'd hate now you'll be jaded. You think that what you think it will be as disrespectful when their tune running as opposed to when it comes to women's issue, when two women are right, that's one charting against each other. Maybe, but let me say something about, I think you know when you talk to particularly rub republican women politicians. I think they have a very fair beef with the way that they are talked about in the press by their opponents, both within their party and from without
and- and I think that something like you know that my example for this is always Kelly Ward and in Arizona who the Mcconnell Super Pack made, in my opinion, quite a sexist visual ad and then nicknamed her control Kelly and guess what stuck, and it's got pictures of her with crazy eyes and she started predicted, as is crazy. Europe depicted, as is crazy. Lady. You ve got the Sarah Palin like There are still a lot of sexism that exists now, let's take through it two women running against each other sure, but also like I'm not gonna, say that every like every time people aren't gonna play dirty. I think I think yes, the more you see women running at each other. My guess is that it might be less dirty, but I don't know women can be add and malignant forces as well horse. I don't love and out I'll stop you out. Little bit, but I don't love, sometimes the implications that women will make politics.
Or civilized, I mean no one of the culture as a whole creates the atmosphere in which candidates exist and decide to put forth line of attack and soda and and and politicians, sort of rise or fall to those expectations at the culture. Habits, and so I think my baseline thing is women or women, that trend, women are humans and human beings can do bad things, particularly politics, an arena that sets people up often for moral degradation and that's all. I have with argue, obviously it's the culture that sets up the fertile ground for someone to be able to run for office enough, there's no fertile ground underneath and you can't possibly run, but I prefer calming nuts. Water, but I truly do believe that politicians can shape the types of campaigns in the types of black are deemed to be acceptable, and if there are more women or taking it to another,
You know if they're more minorities are, if there's more, you know whatever group, it helps to change. Perhaps the tone of the debate there. Obviously the attack adds was still exist of of course, of course, Perry. One jump in news coming close to ninety. Democratic women in the House or Senate and about below thirty republican women in their health and Senate. Though the were reading articles about how there are more women who are running around us, but the part These really much different here and my prediction would be one many. Where the democratic women report, women will win the primary that's one thing and though, go on to win the election and more came to be more democratic. Women are doing better in the electoral process. Well, look at. We cannot but about why anything about it. I would argue, as last year is democratic. Women within the party are listened to more. The republican women are my meaning that will be now
about a predator, and I think there was driven by democratic women in the Senate, birth in column than and then leaving Rakowski. Could I get on the committee on the couldn't get we're not including mutual group on the healthcare building, and they therefore voting view that voting against it, but they're not really listen to you and you are well aware in their ourselves. There also two women are also ideologically too the current outbreak. Well, that's an that's jumped. Oh I mean you know. You could say that they are excluded from the committee because their politics lean left and that's one thing, but you you could also draw supper conclusion that there, but actually left because their women, but maybe they don't angles evident that women are more liberal than men are think, is neither good nor can look it up. Needed in Iraq. Authoritarian look out, but I'm just saying in that particular instance. It doesn't necessarily so, the limit. Let me actually framed this. This way, then will the a wave of women
been mobilize to enter politics hit both parties? Equally, no, no Is anyone think that only a significant force in both politics? Is this really democratic story? I think it's probably a force and both parties, but I mean even as I said earlier, if you just look at this Calling enthusiasm for women in politics is growing percentage of responding to agree that the country will be better off with more women in political office. Yes, the largest jump was among republic women, but that still only up to fifty nine percent in two thousand seventeen, its forty two percent of but remember, says its eighty seven percent of democratic men and eighty nine percent of democratic one. I think more republicanism will still run for office for helping theirs, but I think that there is a mark of a more of a concentration of young women hungry for political office on the left. You I mean. I think that that that's certainly the case. I know I know you know one of the things that definitely true. If
look at the data, among you know, using terms of providing, is perhaps a proxy for this particular thing. What you saw in the data that overwhelmingly the people who had. From the most were twenty nine year old women overwhelmingly his approval rating there in any particular my pretty much never got above twenty five percent may be a few months. It was twenty six to twenty seven but dipped his Lois twenty one percent and far different than it is among the sixty five and older crowd, where even at a low point, as the end of the year, was still forty percent among sixty five and older women. So you know, I think, that the concentration where the energy is within the parties right now, it's really among younger, people that really really don't like Trump and young women in particular- and that's probably gonna drive what goes, and you continue to see a demographic problem for Republicans right where, if you're not attracting, people of a certain gender of a certain age group, then long term you're gonna see you, people who might have been left leaning
begins, decide to be centrist. Cleaning, Democrats whatever it is. You know, like there's a certain hurdle that I think is faced with when Republicans sort of miss them and of wave are may move would certainly point out that trumps pervading, if you go by age group, is and you control for parties worst among the youngest Republican than is among the eldest. Obviously, there's time due to repair that over the long term, in all politics has never stationary things tend to move. Least in short term yeah, let's start drive up here. Ones may be any final thought the women's March in particular, whether fear felt like stained, bigger smaller different from the one that happened a year ago and whether says anything about the sort of wave that we ve been discussing. What Perry? do you you know in the three days at the shutdown talking to lawmakers like where does this sort of large spread outcome of every city in the country. Having some level of protest does that break through.
Is that something that politicians are actually buzzing about? Oh yeah in part because Democrats were all going to give speeches at these events like the minute Women are not only this, but they can get. Their speeches are ten because they were stuck in the Hague. There were those bother, maybe about till I get cable air asking to speak at the one, and I think I lay, for example, if a year, though, whether aware of it a lot of them tweeted, you did about it, I mean for them. I mean I think democratic looking for another field is literally expected Dhaka as well and Democrats. Definitely Beale in Vienna, a grass roots energy, whether that's from invisible or part of Amerika, the people living leading the women's March. They debt, we feel a grassroots energy and they feel both responsible. That I mean they fulfil excited about ebbed off a little bit further beholden to add a third way. They said no being a wash away. They weren't before any final thoughts. I don't like the march was covered as much as the one last year. I mean you know it existed in big cities in
can you see etc? But I dont think it had quite the same sort of media penetration. Give me I have this to say what you about that yeah lucky. With the shutdown shut down going was going, I now they're nine thousand different stories that are basically running a day. I think that the woman's March was won the first demonstrations and situations of the enthusiasm on the left against our trump, and we ve seen that now many other different example so gathered. The turn out was supposedly by the numbers counters. Quite large. You know we're basin. Nor I had trouble getting on the subway on on Saturday. So I can tell you that the people are certainly out enforced but yeah? That's all a story, the continuing enthusiasm of the left and especially among women of the left, but I do not believe that its telling us anything median already now. Ok! Well, let's leave it Thank you too Perry, Bacon, Junior, thank you and I think you're off now to write a piece for the site about. Thank you, Clem alone, thanks as always think, study and harry, and things
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Transcript generated on 2020-06-19.