Who hello and welcome to the five thirty politics pie. Just I'm Galen droop we're back after a week off and you ve got plenty to discuss today. President Biden deadline for withdrawing: U S, troops from Afghanistan, is tomorrow, Tuesday August thirty. First, the run up to that deadline has involved a chaotic effort to try. That you wait Americans and asking allies from the country and the binding, ministration, has whether some pretty heavy criticism for how the withdrawal effort has been conducted from Republicans India and to some extent, Democrats as the? U S officially leaves Afghanistan gonna talk to a historian about how we got to this moment and what might come now where'd. You get a look at how Americans are reacting by began this month with a net approval. Reading about nine points above water signal,

get me more Americans approved of the job he was doing as president than disapproved he's closing out the month, basically even between the number of Americans who approve and disapprove so how much of that decline has to do with the Afghanistan withdrawal. You ready to discuss. All of this is politics. Editors are frozen in whole. Sarah, he came or zero, thus is senior. Elections analysed at any rate, a chain of annual pain and also here with us for our first segment is history, professor at Stanford University, Robert Crews, whose real it focuses on Afghanistan and Central Asia are welcome to the shower Robert. Thank you very much for me. So, let's dive into the historical context, doing tomorrow and where we are right now in Afghanistan. So if everything goes to plan the? U S will officially and nearly twenty year long war in Afghanistan tomorrow, the United States-

longest war like when the: U S invaded in two thousand one, the? U S is leaving with the Taliban in power. I want to get a sense of what happened over the past twenty years to Robert. Can you just give us a sense of what is the Taliban and is at the same thing today that it was twenty years ago, in the. U S invaded Afghanistan, but other Reuben emerged out of what we might call Afghanistan. long civil war, which began arguably in around seventy eight and persist to the present, emerged out of a moment when the service of the drawn in various parties, something we backed against the civilian fought among themselves for control of gonna stand. So they emerged in a geographic area that is crucial for understanding where they come from and what they want. They came out of the south out of largely problems of Kandahar, but importantly, their motion drew upon transporter ties, so they have

strong historic and political rights in Pakistan. So the sums up very briefly, they are a clear lead movement they take on the name of Taliban, which has been students and pushed open and airy. So they themselves must aim for in the province of Kandahar as a force for islamic Justice, for morality, for the realisation of order and morality in a context in which the various parties fighting for control of this territory- so importantly, they ve always claimed represent Islam. They claim to represent a kind of rural vision rooted in the south among a large ethnic group that the Pashtuns, and importantly, they have drawn upon it. You but a context in which the pie sunny Elite that certainly has wanted to for its own part.

This decide who rules cobble together twenty year period was remark. Was it they have adapted their strategy, their rhetoric, their politics in important ways, the familiar think what is most saying for us now. Look at this. From the vantage point of August, twenty one on the on the verge of nine. Eleven is the fundamentally they are ruling in a way that is very much as you left them in two thousand and one that is, they want two hundred and ninety two kind of gender apartheid. They want to primarily police, in reality, they do not yet have a vision for statehood in and are unlikely to develop one they remain relying upon Pakistan. Others has changed now that we have a larger consolation of actors who are prepared to support them. But fundamentally, I think the important thing to hear from after

maybe they're demonstrating this understanding by voting with their feet, not only at the hum, because I national airport, but also, if you call the border crossings in Pakistan, IRAN that tens of thousands hundred thousand Afghans and racing, perhaps to remain Afghans, will attempt to flee the rule surviving. The thumb on have demonstrated important continuity in terms of their ideology. If you look at their opponents to date in terms of ministries govern positions, these are all senior clerics. You read the title of Mullah, they ve spoken about, and it was a government that has not come to pass and, if Holly disregarded all the women who have transformed societal ass twenty years, so it is, for others, watching this route. Somebody decades is it and our session of each other and antimony afghans are asking what happened in the last two decades was aiming at all. What do we say cry so much

it is so many of us die. Why did six thousand afghan soldiers die for this cause? We simply back where it began two decades ago. This is something that we have more moreover, in the national media and in our politics over the past couple weeks, but given your back and in the region. Why more? The Taliban able to take over the country again so quickly the third and final question is over and it will be debating for years to come, as I see it to factors to consider in Tandem one is the position of the afghan state that the? U S was installed in December two thousand and one. I then look at the adaptability, the Taliban itself, so I think we have to look at both in economic, all interaction and kind of a dynamic interdependency. The Taliban grow in strength as irregular,

is killed afghan civilians in the countryside, so the american counterterrorism terrorism in categories. The campaign continue to enable that hold onto reed publish their ranks as budgetary grow in the countryside as we bombed villages as we cannot deny raids. As we said, people to Guantanamo, as we officially tortured people at bottom, Airbus, this fairly, certainly from below the same time. Its leadership always had a safe haven in Pakistan to that factor that kind of Trans national character. This is fundamental The afghan state also play a major role in this because, finally, from beginning they had a major weakness, and that was the appearance that they been put in place by the states and so as well, my brain tissue can it's here, he's from Afghanistan, noted that, in his understanding was twenty years,

There was a single organic afghan leader that emerged out of this conjuncture of interests between the states in Kabul and so initially coming cars. I in a later she's gonna, reviewed by seventy Afghans as being a lion in some sense that spent the numerous years and yet saves they clearly relied upon american city fishes even maintainer, precisely for many many years, and they operate in a world that seem to be alien to and removed from an uninterested in Africa. If so, does by other money, despite international attention, the afghan leader course bears responsibility for the outcome the twenty year story, but resuming just in the last twelve eighteen months the story of the Taliban. Let's creek has country reflex a very sophisticated intelligence apparatus that detailed unemployed they knew who, to assassinate any district. They knew how to shut down much a couple, a key periods. They knew his hat,

the visit to kill and Afghan Airforce pilot closed warriors of Associated Gonna ground game, when my call labored context in a way that pay the ground for their March Cross country at the very same time that the government of actual Johnny thus if one were needed from an afghan public that grew more more critical in the last two years that felt alienated on grounds of class, because if unemployment crisis on grounds of ethnicity, because many key gunny of playing ethic favorites, they found him unable to really stand up to, for example, dont trumps increase air strikes which took a number of civilian lives, so it is, if amendment along tropical the leaders in Kabul being a puppet of foreigners, This is an idea that really robbed the state of lot of legitimacy and actual gunning ever escaped that trap. So I want my partner and I want to open a prior Sarah and an essential to ask any questions they have. Is there any kind?

political majority in Afghanistan today that is backing and the Taliban. Is there an alternative that people want? What is the political landscape? Look like? Does it brand question and really one that hasn't receded attention as aid. If we does one uses has been destroyed by ongoing war. Since that is of great understanding. I yet states brought back into power a collection of desperate Afghans, Massiveness AIDS, but also relied upon local commanders who many causes, as warlords said, the yes helped create a put landscape that was very limited in terms of cutting state in terms of popular legitimacy. In terms of adopting a vision of a modern politics with respect for human rights as on so it was a kind of starting point, but, very importantly, of

today's debate is gonna? Politics has emerged in August in, and I wouldn't credit that safer doing this. It is critical to space for this fairly. This was the work of both the young people of afghan men and women, who sought years education across the world who use new media to force new debates. So television became very important radio railways in key, but television became much more important by satellite. Dozens of nationals emerged. My colleague wash my Osman has written a great book on afghan television as lay the crucial sight of afghan politics. It so inelastic you're, so social media became very much a thing with ease of cheap public funds there and, as I said, it Atkins wanted what people in Say Louis or Washington or Berlin one, but they built a politics. It was very pluralistic so on one and we see people who are Islamists. But I point out that this included some dinner activists who wanted a kind of his

politics that included women. So it's kind of islamist terrorism spectrum. Just imagine Ty range of people who were were left us. People who recyclers people who even atheists, who believed and a radically different kind of social democracy really in last year's, using every kind of took ideology emerged. Afghanistan in the last year to manuscripts began to did find themselves as the republic, and they put it the republic against this old force emirate these honour emirate of the tall on which is how they that further state in waiting. So this vision of the republic is the emirate dominated debates debate last year, so that left the cobbler government got out of the picture, because its basis for trying to track

but about Poland, sport. This is so hard to measure. For someone like me, who is far way, I think we can find important journals accounts that note that if you gotta villages where, for example, local communities suffered from American, drawn strikes or aids, or from special forces raids by the afghan government, you find people. We lost fathers, sons, daughters, vows, one major force that push people into the ranks, hold on does not mean a popular and not always mean that alone is actually heterogenous collection of different actors who have a common interest in defeating the government in Kabul and in expelling the Americans. But that means that most people can get on board reasons and crucially, Dave had support from Pakistan and a more recent years also from IRAN, If one goes to the cities in Afghanistan, there is no appetite for Taliban rule. If asked me what I hear beginning for my colleagues and friends and interlocutors

that their non enormous betrayal is due to the fact that they have a say in the Taliban take over. They blame zombie close. I do U S representative who signed trumps deal with the Taliban in February twenty in Doha cutter they blame Biden and, of course they blame Johnny for playing the country, so the socialists, the top on his part to analyze it quantify danger popularity among break in certain circles. They Your popularity among some at the nationals, pushing activists, types, someplace having some rural areas. There is a kind of accept is that held on because they offer security. They offer justice. They very carefully manufactured reputation for being above party politics about politics of clan orgy nautical descent, so their ranks are often internally diverse in terms of tribal at

variations and eight? They claim to rule in the name of Islam in a way that oversees all the local and national social divisions that have really that the rise of strife last forty years but, of course, of our societies is entirely different. Now and occasionally, watching to see is how can they rule aside is grown far more complex, his politics upon we're a pluralistic where women again, who played a funnel role in shaping political debate. They ve been enormous, important in the media, The numeracy life, probably the most important human rights figures, do you have the mess more sanding artifact women? So what would you do with this change society these men have not been to Kabul in thirty four years, as only our people have never been to cobble any and they never been her up. Our three men not invent Kandahar, so

Sorry he's got an urban rural competition, it's really a clash of different ideologies and worlds, and yet the Taliban are incredibly sophisticated in their own way in terms of remarkably successful guerrilla campaign that defeated the Americans, but I'd stop at that same they did he'd America's, but it wasn't foretold that their defeat. The afghan government and that's where I think the broader more than all, the international alignment of actors was essential in passionate Alan forward and really pulling the rug out from under the afghan government I know Sarah Nathaniel have some questions for you as well, which I want to get into, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy rumble on

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since about whether there are new terrorist groups and what the situation is going to be on the ground going forward. So saying, Nathaniel. Jumping here. One question I had given what you were saying about, the unpopularity of the Taliban was how ISIS K could fit into the region and thinking you know they claimed responsibility for the attack last week that it killed of Afghans in at least thirteen american troops. Is there an opportunity, given the chaos that currently present in Afghanistan, for there to be more fighting between the Taliban and then ISIS Brazil is resuming since twelve fourteen twenty four team we ve, seen actually align themselves with the Taliban. The Taliban and encounters with encounters with islamic state representatives and I'll see their to stop, stop cobble material to paralyse public life. The assets has paint itself into very model position and, of course, they can shut on airport. They can

regarding the havoc, and they can also undermine tab on water extent. They are made up of treaties fighters who are actually ideologically close. That alone and many Afghans will tell us that we have a new point of view. There is no doubt I've heard very smart Afghans variable, for I can say as issues state of them if they are just an alternate face for the Taliban and their actual working in tandem, in that they share the same agenda and that they are all determined to crush Afghans. of society the kind of republic that I've got a moment ago. Other experts tell us that this is the case.

People you are disaffected from top on. All people who were once of the Taliban have now migrated to a group that they found to be more fitting for their ideological positions, more radical in terms of tarring civilians, more sectarian, and they have been responsible for attacks on Afghan she communities in Kabul. You may recall attacks on hospitals and on curl schools and on religious possessions doesn't happen in one neighborhood in Kabul in the West, where there are many has our inhabitants, many residents of the city were his army. There, we also learn from other accounts of ISIS correspond in a concern that they are quite multinational that they draw from a now defunct. Is

women of his back on that they draw on a request on, is, I think, an Malaysian was busily killed. Last week they draw upon a more international profile some day I gnostic about how much you did. Fine is almost eight corsage province, because I think it is so elusive, but I would add that it's a u slacker. Falada did and parties hold on, can say: listen we stand between the world and is almost a course on Moscow has said the Putin Ascetic and again it we can with the Taliban, because they are a break against islamic state course on So there's an amorphous body of fighters who can be,

he's got by some colleagues- they could be a multinational collection of islamic state inspired terrorists who are gonna, play a major role in Afghanistan's future, but it also be a bogeyman who is part of a broader pr effort to make the Taliban look like their new kind of more moderate, more acceptable version of themselves who deserve international recognition and thus deserve all the aid that comes up, that that deserves the United Nations seat, and if someone get that they can be confident dead The game is over that any resistance that might appear in the country of Ali is finished an illegitimate. Any kind of social study actually received. That may come out of the republic that I described that can be cast as being terror islamic state or something so international missions. he too, but on clarifying and consolidating the rule, I think, without going down, the rattle of conspiracy theories is worth asking which interests it serves to see it as the

imminent threat and Afghanistan today, because for Moscow anything maybe for Beijing May for Teheran. muslim about the problem can be cast in a very different light. If we see them as the last bulwark against us One thing that I was struck him. I wrote an article a couple of weeks ago about Americans attitude. toward the war in Afghanistan. Most broadly and one question really stood out of me. It was a yoga question that asked whether the war in Afghanistan had made life better for Afghans, worse for Afghans, or neither and Americans really didn't know what to do with this question. So twenty six percent thought that the war may have made life better. Twenty three percent thought it made life worth. Twenty seven percent neither better nor worse and twenty four percent didn't know when. So, since we haven't expert right here, I won t basically get your opinion, over the last twenty years. Do you think that overall, the net impact of the American Invasion WAR was good for Afghans or bad or minor

that's right out in question: they can if they are not easy to dance or at all events. It depends upon your position, afghan society and how the work I did you directly on your age, your gender, your community background, Others are important factors based on who is against the war, and the other states means was my age, of course, but my first I was it a magazine, rosy and those a kind of teaching. When I first weeks on the job- and I spoke out against the attack on a panacea

after my Levin and over the chair. My department was frowning at me because this is not about their position. So, having laid out that contacts of sea people had the whole families wiped out by american or afghan state attacks on our communities, so the word is Al Qaeda and Taliban orphaned, tens of thousands of children people suffered torture. People suffered all kinds of abuse at the hands of people back by Washington. That support to put it the calculus, but also recognise, like many of us who is the only region were were being bombarded by requests from friends and colleagues and strangers, optimal scape now now, and so I have a small rolodex of a body cards of passports from us. The younger people who see the last twenty years does washed away by decisions that they had no say over. There were made in Washington by Biden by closing the course that was building upon the Trump messrs incisions.

she's gonna, buy a very unaccountable elite, but these are people who went to what do you see they dream to becoming doctors and lawyers and in some just wanted to provide for families and on my friends are pointed out, has our community and they feel genocide. So I know we had a debate this country about about: U s about whether it was good or bad to follow, binds plan known once it forever occupation, no one's forever war. But I know people who realistically face read of genocide. Now it's I'm very torn and I dont want forever orbit After really have a conversation about what we are Afghans by using this train for our international envisions using the kind of weaponry relying on your power in a way that was so imprecise and brutalizing and then look at the planning stage is the daddy it withdraw matches its execution, but the whole absence of diplomacy,

notion rethinking through what this would do to Afghans across the board, even if you're, someone who did not take part in the so called public here that identified even imagine near your she put her in a rural province. You now facing drought, you facing iconoclasts your face encoded in all. This will worsen because of the path chosen by american elites, but that way broadly to make it more by partisan. It's a bipartisan and multinational failure here right. So the outcome of the others would have stunning effects across society. So now we can sound surreal and in perhaps disingenuous talk about afghan women and girls, because of course we all remember that that was one of the justifications offered for the one first place so that the course of a public notion but has also real and contacts, and so I have colleagues

my friend I left. You say they re much anti empire in the economy at war, that's richer, and I am sorry that my classroom, but also look at the photographs of these passports. These women staring at me their homes being search some member journalists, the taller than our honeymoon. Those hours are being hunted and tens of thousands of them were killed. All mass the eight they river that here the societies traumatized, so they roll reeling and really shocked at the top of her back and that they have not changed and so that the more complex but we make as it is one in which he has been found. doesnt Afghans and Sir, I applaud your attention to this, I think is the ethical issues are, are enormous and I fear that one, the cameras withdraw and the airport returns wherever it will be, your becomes something else. I fear the top on will

the space to enact becomes system they want, and that will have to rely on brutal forms of violence and fortunately, just to close this conversation. Of course, the main reason that the United States went to war in Afghanistan invaded Afghanistan. Two thousand one was to basically attack ok to and prevent outside a white terrorist organisations from using Afghanistan as a home base into the future. Has that part been accomplished? No

now that I prefer my cut tourism field. Experts does not merely my expertise footing since our guide. It will tell you know our kindest or present now islamic state was on province is actually present in some form or another right to do about the serious question in some form another. There are even other groups and then broadly, what someone had done with boxed. I support is embolden radical groups in Pakistan, Hamas sent greetings and congratulations to top on upon their arrival in Kabul. So many of us who- in looking at moderate islamic movements with politics across the globe. Fixation on most societies, the wind in the sales of jihadist movements heavily then growing weaker in recent years. To the islamic state phenomenon has become fuss. Popular does inspire young kids in Europe, the USA. The way did

but this is a new chapter now this is a new chapter, and so there are our kind and other groups on afghan soil. Doing Biden tells us it's mission accomplished before she that doesn't square with the evidence will be seen today is an appeal to the biking session. Calls over the horizon kind of terrorism, which means drone strikes, launch the? U n e r somewhere, but no, you listen while another geography denoted that's contingent upon other pakistani or yawning permission rather sadly enough to know now that the Pentagon has not been honest about what train strikes are now we're ready for confirmation even about. The most recent trends try getting yesterday they for in Kabul, which may have killed a family of six or more including number children, so dense exit do not make for effective Terrorism basically shape it. When you call civilian was to prevent a phone number from.

During the struggle against those who murdered their elders, so we risk engaging in simple forms of violence, the gone without end. That's the real danger here: Unfortunately, the combination of trumps policies and bind policies, I really painted the Nashua Curtis Hausmann into a corner. There are no good counters of options in a kind of time. I present the over the horizon. Policing is, I think, a pipedream will be no embassy filipino no intelligence, the omega three or four days on justice and on a more positive note, is it. I think the type of diplomacy is well overdue. Getting agreement about counterterrorism could be a platform on which Mr Abad Teheran, Washington, whoever system

Will the situation? Neighbours, Beijing and Moscow cut all meet an attempt to find some common ground on doubling this'll, be something that can be done via drone or via CIA. Being dropped in Afghanistan is a realistic if this looked geography. Realistically. setting, we have a lot of our mistakes to consider of last twenty years, but hope now people are listen to what Mr Atkins, what presented it to grace frustration for my friends and colleagues, is that this also to take shape without considering what Afghans wanted less complex that we really haven't had yet that horse dealer entangled point: Afghans, different things. So there's no single voice, there's no single demand that that Afghans want, but I think they feel very much sidelined by his great car parks. now by the arrival of the Taliban, who are not Williamson popular opinion, be I think their lesson is that they can achieve their took aims by force and there's nothing in place. It is a mechanism to

for them to rethink that logic that it always do that now, realistically, is via diplomatic intervention, pressure, Dar carrots and sticks. Then I think This has to be brought to bear in regional setting across model platforms at the. U N did the g7, their regional actors and washed, and here again having payments under corner has no option but to pursue that with renewed intensity, because what flaming is of asked, he returned

ass if it were really affect all of us across the planet or what we're gonna do things there for today. Thank you for joining us. Thank you. Robert curse is a history professor at Stanford University has focus is on Afghanistan and Central Asia. Let's move on and talk about how Americans are reacting to this withdrawal from Afghanistan, but first today's podcast is brought you by another five. Thirty, eight podcast hot, take down each Tuesday check out five. Thirty, eight sports podcast hot, take down where the hot takes up the sports world meet the numbers that proved them right or tear them down. The crew digs into fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the analytics behind the issue. They end each week show by diving into a rabbit hole of data. From the strangest fifty point games in the NBA to the ever larger gullies of the end, H out, don't mess hot, take down

Annabelle, every Tuesday, wherever you find your pot, casts when we last talked about the binding administrations approach to withdrawing american troops for Afghanistan, the chaos surrounding evaluations and the speed of the Talibans advance was only just becoming clear. So now we have information, and have had more time to ask Americans what they think about? What's happened over the past two or three weeks? So here's the question: what Americans think about how the Bind administration has handled all of us. They do not feel, like Biden has handled this well so the most recent morning consult political Paul found that only twenty four percent of Americans believe that the withdrawal has gone very or somewhat well. Sixty seven percent. Think it's gone not too well or not well at all. Similarly, in Uganda, the economists latest poor only sixteen percent think that their withdrawal has gone well and sixty eight percent think that it has gone badly and turn

of Biden himself and his personal approval rating of the issue that you gave. Economists Paul gave him only authority. Percent approval reading and a fifty percent disapproval rating on the issue within those Will it be right? The one thing I think is interesting in that is american still think it was the right decision to leave Afghanistan when you also ask that and a question support has ebb and flow since April when it was first announced- and I think also in light of the attack at the airport last week- you're probably see you know, public opinion on that date back down again, but in general, it's kind of like Americans are both able to distinguish that the withdrawal self is going badly, but they still support the decision to be leading Afghanistan yeah. Just to put some numbers on that. So the morning council, political poor, still found. Fifty percent of people support the withdrawal. Only thirty nine percent oppose it, and that is decreased from how it was before one

Strong majorities supported the withdrawal, but even now the majority still supports it and actually that same pole is kind of an interesting aside, but that same poor expense, with few different wording in framing of that question, and one question actually asked You still support the withdrawal, even if it means that Afghanistan becomes basically like a safe haven for terrorists, and even in that scenario, forty five percent of people supported withdrawal and forty percent posed it. So I think that really does show the deaf to which Americans are ready to get out of here

them here that sit with me to me? I think it's important to carry out that that Paul was conducted before the suicide bombing attack last week. So I think when morning cancelled or another pollster asks that question again. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers fell a bit, but I think still to Nathaniel's larger point, like Americans are still supporting the decision to withdraw show. Where does that leave biter you're telling me some pretty bad numbers, given how polarized the country is right. This means that there are lots of independence, and even Democrats were saying. Biden is doing a good job on this to put those under hotdogs two of his broader approval rating, which I mentioned at the top at the beginning of the month, Biden was nine points above water with the publicly out of fifty two percent approval rating. Now forty three percent

disapproval. Reading today does not approve all rating is basically even so. Forty seven percent approve forty seven percent disapprove, that's according to our average, as is our straight line between the declining views of Joe Biden and this Afghanistan withdrawal. It's definitely a part of it, but I think it's really hard to understand how much of it is. Just Afghanistan can consider that before the situation in Afghanistan had come to a head bindings approval rating had already fallen by about two point: five points from the end of July to early August, and that was because the delta variant surging in the U S, Jeffrey Scully, has done a lot of research here on the site, diving into other possible reasons into the delta variant was a big driver,

but it was also we ve seen since early spring, that numbers among independence and support for Biden has steadily been taking down its unclear to what extent some of that is linked to the corona virus or what's happening in Afghanistan, because part of that could be tied to the economy which again is linked to the corona virus. It's all linked in some way, but I think It's really hard with guidance numbers right now is. There is clearly a dip associated with Afghanistan here, but there's other factors at play as well, which makes it hard to understand how that's all working too. There. You are so and if so, Schroeder's Paul surveyed on August thirteenth, which was basically right before couple foul and then Monday, August sixteenth, which was right after and buttons operating dropped. Seven. Points in that period, so I dont think f gases. Accelerated it yeah. But there is that

a wire, yes yeah, that's a particular extreme example. Thank you from a dream I go in, but I still think that if you look at the five thirty eight approval average, you can really see his approve any has been on the decline steadily for months really from his eyes after he took office at the difference between a proven disapproval really just disappears in the last couple of weeks, and I think that the obvious explanation for that is Afghanistan, but, yes, absolutely think they're more things going on it's important not to one right, the history of this error, not to say that oh Afghanistan tanks binds but were aiming to theirs. Clearly more going on here, yeah I'd mentioned that two point: five points which kind of coincided with when the delta variant was really searching in the: U S you like late July to early August and instead August Fifth, there's been another three point decline into Nathaniel's point. A large part of that coincides with what this happened in Afghanistan.

but you know we're also tracking bindings approval rating for how his handling the pandemic and he's always that higher marks on that question, then is overall approval, but that's also slipped from the midst. Sixteen to the mid, fifty so he's losing standing in terms of how is also managing the pain Denmark and that's a factor here. I do want to take a bit of a step back Amy Walter at the cook. Political report had an interesting article about how for presence first there's always kind of something that shatters the honey or the illusion of how well the new president is handling things, and it's not clear to me that, if Afghans to have happened or if Delta has happened, that bind would still be writing high. It does seem like those around this point in the calendar when people starts kind of sea there, pause in the new president's leadership. Russia there's a broader macro trend that lays out a honeymoon period, does add, but still I mean these are some pretty serious.

events right. These specific reasons were still drivers, but there is also this broader idea that I think are a president's approval rating is going to narrow, as their term precedes around the six. montenegro- and I guess on that same no, you know like one point we ve made in both the trap presidency, but then also in a bomb, as is given how polarized our country is an that's, shows our approval poles in terms of Democrats strongly back by it and whereas Republican Stone, his approval rating shouldn't, move that much either. You know it's been about a five point window for both

Tromp, Ando, Burma and presumably rules also see violence, approval rating moving in that narrow range. I realize right now. You know it's towards the bottom of what we would expect, but then reason to believe that some of this temporary yeah I was going to ask it- seem like early on in violence. Presidency partisanship might have been preventing him from having even higher approval. Readings like he was getting as you mention in the sixties. Approval ratings on handling covert, which was in many cases the biggest thing that people were dealing with them or do we live at this point in time? I'm hearing numbers like Thirty, seven percent of Americans view Biden, has handling the situation in Afghanistan. Well, are we now see a situation where, like actually polarization, is helping bite and preventing him from clattering mean yeah? I think that is going to happen in this age by being stuck between two points.

Gives you a high for and a low ceiling. I think I was to attempt to detach flirted with the floor more often and now we're seeing Biden do so. Well, we don't know where this is for us. I guess what we're seeing him come down for the first time in its present is saying it will be interesting to see where that goes going forward, You can have been two camps in this right in the sense that the criticism Biden has received, particularly from Congress husband by partisan and Democrats criticising him. It's Republicans criticising ham, butt. Republicans are now kind of shifting the game where bite and not only did a bad job of managing the withdrawal, but was a political act. They forget the history of you know. Some of this was living out things that Trump had promised during his presidency, whereas I think Democrats or train a threat. This line of he didn't do a good job of managing the withdrawal, but it's still in power.

that we laughed, and there was something we were saying at. The top of this segment has borne out in the polls like Americans are making the distinction and overwhelmingly disapprove of how Biden handle debt, but I still think it was the right decision to withdraw So you know it's a long winded way of saying, even though Democrats, her unhappy, probably with how Biden has handled the withdrawal there so giving him the benefit of the doubt whether not leaving him behind in terms of overall support, whereas, there's, probably more shift among the public and to the extent that there is still room to shift their than independence as well, a trend that

already seen earlier this year, also, perhaps in a way, you know we ve heard some Republicans calling for Biden and other members of the administration to resign or be impeach for something that obviously, that kind of rhetoric can make Democrats rally around their own leaders, perhaps more. I am curious, given that you said the majority of the plurality of the american public wants to leave Afghanistan and that this unlike covered, is, we hope, not something that is going to affect the daily lives, at least of Americans, in the sense that there is not a terrorist attack or something like that. Two to terrorism in Afghanistan. Is this the kind of thing that's fleeting? How long are people going to be dinging Biden on this for months and years to come? But we expect here too, Finally, what we see with high profile events like what's happening in Afghanistan is a large shift and public opinion and the net fades overtime,

think about what we saw in terms of support for the black lives matter: movement after Floyd's murder. Last summer there was a huge spake and support for them men, but then, by a month later, I believe, by MID June support for that had stalled in theory, You should see a similar effect here were Americans are upset, giving bag and low approval ratings, but then a month from now some of that fades. I think, though, Galen you hit on the crucial question of right now, the sick. nation is so and tenuous in Afghanistan that, if it descends into further chaos, if something were to happen on american soil, that, of course we can't price in Tibet, we would expect to happen in terms of the event fading and how that would affect

Biden's approval, so I think we have to have a long time horizon on this. So we're, assuming is absolutely a thing and it wouldn't be shocking to see assuming everything in a week, exact Anniston as planned, and american attention leaves Afghanistan, I'm not going to say the things will calm down in Afghanistan because of the Tremendous had been at. It would definitely possible for binds approval rating to recover your back to the low fifties where it's been, but I Also, I keep thinking about the Obama comparison instead where we don't know what binds mean is that he is reverting to. This could be the reversion to the mean and when you look at Obama, He had this honeymoon period and that kind of deep down- and he a fairly polarizing president with about an even approval rating for much of his presidency, and I could definitely see the same thing kind of happening with Biden where

maybe he settles into an average position where he's about fifty fifty year, forty four forty five and one factoring in undecided, and it turns out the thick fifties numbers that he had been experiencing up to this point. were a honeymoon, or at least Conover many moon and the extent to which our honeymoon can exist in this polarized age you meant, Sarah, that there are clear lines between the kind of criticism that the binding administration is receiving from Republicans and from congressional Democrats in this moment, what are the dividing lines to what extent are Republicans making the argument that we should have left Afghanistan period Brent, so that argument it has been less popular, it's more so doubling down on this idea. That Biden and his administration has really bungled the withdrawal- and I do think, what's really problematic about this and why you ve, seen both Republicans

Democrats, vocal in their criticism of Baden, is he essentially is on the record promising that the kind of chaos that has ensued in the last few weeks would not occur as troops left, and then it happened like that's difficult to have that on the record, and I dont think at the time. Those statements actually got that much play its only here in the aftermath of this kind of expect and so and how's minority leader Kevin Mccarthy he's been really vocal in terms of his criticism of bite and clearly making this into a play for the twenty twenty two mid terms. Trying to paint this. Is it political decision to you. No act in haste days prior to the anniversary of nine eleven and not really thinking about what the implications would be, and then you have democratic. Representative Seth, Morton and former twenty twenty democratic primary Contender evil, also speaking out against violent and even booked an impromptu trip to Kabul to

the situation on the ground saying that he had asked back in April that the administration be doing more to get refugees safe haven here in the U S and then there's larger ethic and broader think pieces kind of diving into what did America even think they were going to accomplish in Afghanistan in the first place, returning back to her or first segment here talking about you, the forever war and the inherent problems in that it, dozens of Democrats or, more so disappointed with how the administration is handled it pushing that refugees be settled here in the EU quickly, but I think that is going to be a a fight as well with some Republicans already pushing do not allow the resettlement of afghan refugees here in the? U S, and you can see some Islamophobia cropping up in those arguments similar to what we ve seen with immigration and the rhetoric there. Democrats writ large. I think trying to make this more about fighting was faced with an impossible decision. It still good that he ended the war there, but I think it's been hard for you

The administration, as I said earlier, like had to pass out talking points to Democrats in Congress, because people were really sure how to spend as positively as it has been such a mess in terms of navigating the response there. Yeah. I agree with all that. I just put a little asterisk. I do think there are some elements of the Republican Party, particularly kind of the older wing, the NEO conservative wing of a party that actually is arguing that we should not have left Afghanistan so much Mcconnell. For instance, he went on. B S news recently me said quote: we shouldn't have me this decision. In the first place, we only had two thousand five hundred troops there. A light touch, no chaos. A single american soldiers killed in year of combat, so he I do think there

a divide here between the Bush neoconservative Wing Party and the Trump younger wing of the party. That has been entirely international intervention final question here, so we ve driver harm arrogance are reacting to us how this is shaping their views of the binding ministration. That role potentially have electoral consequences. Bull find out at some point on the road, rather not that's the case, but in the near future, as we had in two September drainage Democrats plan to be very ambitious in trying to pass an infrastructure bill. A three point: five trillion dollar social spending bill add also raise the debt ceiling and found the government is all of this off.

Month of August forbidden going to shape whether or not Democrats can get other legislation passed. I would say, probably not. I think that a lot of the things you just mentioned are priorities for the legislators themselves and so that they are going to continue to push to get them pass and they almost see Biden as a vehicle. For that, given that, have a Democrat and the White House now, one way in which it could is, maybe it emboldens certain wings of the party to stand up to a kind of the Bible,

session by holding things up. We ve seen us in recent weeks with the so called moderate nine who extracted some concessions from anti policy. As regards the three point, five trillion dollar budget envy infrastructure bill. I think that a weakened president kind of politically approval rating wise is one that's easier to stand up to you. If you had offices as extreme example, but if you had a present with seventy percent approval rating, I think anybody within their party would dare to stand up against him yeah. I agree that I thinking I what's happening in Afghanistan will be very separate from what we see play out in Congress here in the fall, though, to be clear, I think this is going to be another huge fisher point, both in the party but then also leading into two thousand and twenty two in the sense that, right now, all the attention will be on this massive three point: five trillion dollar infrastructure bill focused on really big, ambitious legislative priorities for Democrats that then they'll pass through budget reconciliation, so meaning they won't need republican support, and so I think that talking point in particular for Republicans will be

zoo man you can see a building upon their Afghanistan point may be trying to drum Democrats for those two issues moving into twenty twenty two, but I think than being pretty supper. It is worth noting the three point: five trillion dollar budget- and they have shush Bill- are both very popular with the american public. So that might not be successful The tactic, well, I think we should put- should put on that in the sense we know bill still not written, and we also know too, like there's gonna, be a lot of fighting among moderate Democrats about how to get that through. But I also thinking over publications will try to launch on too piers around the death of said and yes right now, Republicans are more animated by that the Democrats would across the board when you asked about like just prices being up and you can forcing that from inflation, Americans, rent larger but more concerned than they have been, and so I think you know the risks but to your point, Nathaniel a lot of what is in that bill is really popular. I think anytime, there's a lot of conflict, those over a bill and it sweeps

but political science research. You, no voters, often like the party till they pass laws which is really counter intuitive now seems a little unfair referred lawmakers. Bathing just opens up a lot of challenges, potentially for Democrats yeah. I've wanted to actually bring this up as part of a good user point or bodies are points I grant and maybe we'll get rate in the next couple weeks, the polling. Actually, on the three point, five trillion dollar bill-

is really kind of all over the place, because there's so much in it and you can ask the questions in so many different ways and the questions and being so long and whether you include certain tradeoffs or not, is another question like actually pulling something this big that involves so many distinct policies seems like challenge and maybe we'll talk about that out of the trap, certain facts, but let's leave things therefore, now that cliffhanger get excited for that produce, appalling or bodies. Appoint. Thank you and thank you enter these killing things came. My name is dealing droop tony child is in the virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing. M. O Reilly is in turn. You can get in touch my emailing us at podcast that five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, Tweet

as with any questions or comments. If you're, a friend of the sharp leaves a reading or review in the apple pie, can store or tell someone about us thanks for listening, and we will cease.