What kind of an energetic you can turn your own volume down? What ha ha? hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. My name is Jody Africa. There are two weeks left until election day in this marks, the kickoff of our daily or near daily podcast countdown to the big day. So listen we're going to have a bunch more podcast in your ear holes over the next two dear Rosie, like that that that was that wasn't even in the script I just sat yeah I like that. Look We are two weeks away. There are a few things that we want to dive into one in particular, with the races are starting to heat up or getting more and more data, and one of the most intriguing pieces is in regards to fund raising. Last week, campaigns released

latest fund raising numbers, showing Democrats outraised Republicans in individual donations, about two to one so here to discuss what that says, whether it says anything about democratic enthusiasm, how we should work it into the model itself and the models in our heads and in our hearts, editor in Chief Nate, silver, hello, Nate, hello, Jodie. Okay, that's pretty good good hello on a neat grade that was a b plus Clare, Malone, politics, readers here, hey, Jerry and managing editor make a cone hello, Mika hello. Can you hear the chapstick that my kids just put on? I was introducing the others. Was an inch and yeah his chopsticks season? Did anybody had buy lottery tickets know what's happening, Tony, that it's passive. That's all it's like two massive mega millions is like billion. I don't know yeah two billion dollars or something I don't want to win- that lottery really

well your chances of winning are very slim, but the I don't want to win this new I've never heard anyone say that you don't want to billion dollars, and I have to think about it actually is not that this is a lot of money. That's like you have to feel guilty about your both money and you can give it away. You can do it yeah, but you just think about how to give it away properly the guilt you can hire someone for that. That's true my face kind of journalism around these moments of the articles, with a like two billion dollar thing. But after the government takes its part, it's only like a hundred million dollars. It's still a lot of money. What's funny, though, is a lot of offices? You know have like they buy office whatever, but I think because five hundred and thirty eight is, let's say an unusual type of office. Nobody in the office, so rational yeah have a wealth. The lottery is a total scam but who's the most. I I didn't know about it, but who's. The most likely person to buy a

ticket tamacha clearly is in the care of holding up waving his tickets in the air already already serving his two week. Notice date, you don't buy any tickets Robbie did there, we go. It says the rationality that says the line so like we talk about fundraising and we're also then later in the show going to talk about the newly released governor's forecast and look at the dynamics playing out in governor's races around the country. But let's begin by check in on the forecast cats overall, which will kind of basically do every time we got there in chat for between now and election, so may want to give us the top line numbers on where the we're taught governors later. So where the House and Senate Forecast stand in the Senate. The story is not really very much changed. For a few weeks now, it's been in the range of four and five chance of the GOP and that's roughly where it is some It takes up to seventy nine. That is four and five, but it's been around an eighty percent chance. You've seen a couple of states where there have been somewhat better polls for Democrats, but it's a heavy lift

we're still not seeing polls in North Dakota and Montana, and a lot of states that are pretty interesting and polls of Indiana, which is a little off the radar but other contradicting one another we've had victory poles in Arizona the sense of heavy lift for Democrats and has hasn't improved much very play on that question. We haven't gotten polls in states that we feel are pretty important or signal is it just simply because the law Polling is hard to do in and it's expensive and whoever is planning to do. It is just going to wait until the last possible moment and what's going on well Beto, or gives the third branch of government. So you can understand why there are one hundred different Texas polls now look. I think some states are thought better to pull Indiana, for example, you're not supposed to do Robo polls, they have a barrel playing basketball all out playing hoops this time of year, North Dakota, there's no party registration or no voter registration at all is my understanding, and that makes it more challenging their all out. Playing hoops. Now there

where are they playing their fracking and playing hockey? I think curly curling up North Dakota fracking, going to the strip we are like. We are like caricatures of coastal E. No North Dakota I've been in North Dakota. Look if we hadn't already alien every listener from North Dakota. They would be very young, my longstanding rivalry with North Dakota are we, getting to see some polls in all these things, there's a chance. We go all the way to election day and we just don't have a. I don't know. I mean Fox Fox. Been polling North Dakota periodically is one of the states they're hitting an Indiana so good for them. You know, like I work decodable since October. Second, look, some really since hide camps, vote on Kavanaugh she's at other controversies to that probably going to play well for her frankly, but like pull North Dakota. Somebody it should also be said in two thousand and twelve, you also not very many public pools in North Dakota, but the Heitkamp campaign in democratic groups would put out polls showing them ahead.

Or at least in a tight race, and so you know, I'm not a huge fan of polls are, does use them. However, and like you know, you would think that They had a reason to want it optimism that you get a poll like that at some point and- and you haven't had one so it's a little bit. You know state also hasn't been pulled in a long time, Montana September, twenty eighth, some twenty eighth another fracking state. Maybe it's not a bit- have to do with the fact. I don't think antenna has a lot of fracking, but I I will say I think it's in I thought I would be interested to see another Montana Paul Post cabin on the You know at eight at night always says rather an internal than no polling. That's a long time. Nate so greeting cards greeting a at noon, eight cents and eight two saying look. I think Montana in Indiana are two states where republicans have been very bullish and they will periodically put out poll show

I'm tired up to or down to that, our campaign or affiliated polls or party affiliated polls, the public polling in those states. As fairly consistently shown Democrats with the lead, and so we don't really We don't really know whether Tana and Indiana kind of up in this likely democratic category where they lose them, but probably that means things are going pretty badly overall or if they're more in a toss. Slash lean democratic category, in which case there are more central to the story on November sixth, make a real quick and then we should. We should move on to the fund raising question, which obviously plays into a lot of this as well, but we've talked a number of times about how eighty percent is the kind of spot. That makes us a little nerve, that people kind of round all the way up to a hundred when to when hundred forecast is at eighty percent. It's ticked up a little bit. Eighty six in the classic for the house and then at some just under eighty in light and the locks is running, but is there a point at which it pushes pay?

asked the nervous making zone and is like high enough that we feel like oh we're, back Tord people should assume this is it's funny, because it's it's half what our forecasts is showing and a half what the media narrative is In twenty twelve, for example, we had Obama as like an eight thousand nine hundred and ninety percent favorite. Ninety yeah. I think anyone something on election day, which is a strong favorite, but the media narrative was that it was like a toss up. Then anybody who tried to say You know one Canada or another. Had an advantage was like greeting entry. Sales rather than like accurately describing the data you know this year. I actually like. I was asking people about this the other day, but like I'm, not quite sure what the consent, says on the house, I'm not sure he's married either. I think data wise narrative

Data wise? It's clear Democrats are strong favorite, but not not a prohibitive one, but what's what's what's the meaning of service there is that chance is in the house. There is this weird consensus that, like oh, the house is shifting back to the GOP the posts, for example an article on that I think that's not a credible case. You have to cherry pick your way through generic bal polls that have gotten worse for Republicans, threw awful third quarter fund raising numbers for Republicans threw a lot of pretty bad district by district polls. For Republicans, I don't think that's an accurate depiction avoid land. We can debate our democratic chances, seventy per center, eighty percent or ninety five percent, and I we have given our numbers. I guess I should do that now. The Democrats are at an all time high and in our house forecast yeah. They are eighty six percent favorites in the classic version, which is

This is the time of year when we recommend looking at three different versions, so the deluxe version accounts for expert forecast like political there, a little bit more hedge. So that's eighty three, the light. Version just pulls only if you don't buy these fundraising numbers which have a big influence on the other two forecast, the Democrats, seventy nine. So if you just remember. If you want to round things off it's about eighty percent, on average printer various forecasts in the two chambers, eighty percent for Democrats in the house, eighty percent for Republicans send it. Let's start to transition a little bit and talk about some of these fundraising numbers so clear. Do you want to just kick a software thoughts about this kind of remarkable fund, raising advantage that Democrats are showing I think it speaks to obviously a great deal of enthusiasm on the democratic side. I think some of it is from politics becoming more pop culture. I mean, I think we pointed out in our couple of election.

Dates that these fund raising numbers are historic. Is that a fair word to put on to the fund raising numbers and- I think you're, seeing a lot of small donor dollar donations, which we've talked about before on this podcast. Is you know something that's becoming for Democrats, this really important litmus test. How are you doing with small dollar donors? And so I think it's interesting number to pull out and I think post twenty. Sixteen. You have seen this sort of extraordinary ground swell of yes, it is yes, I'm on the democratic side, but just politics becoming pop cultural lingo, for and I think that that filters into donations it's interesting- I buy that that Democrats not only would have a fund raising the advantage because into his house. Democratic enthusiasm seems up this year, but that, like the pod

save America. Portion of the Democratic Party is new, an super active and and donating. I don't have any data to support that, but, like anybody else buying that I don't because it's like it's extremely widespread, I mean I think this is about. Like targeted digital deals about people having more awareness of their local congressional candidates, as politics becomes more about more of a spectator sport so to speak, but we actually showed a big jump in the number of candidates who raised who, a certain threshold, so we had an article about like how many trees are one million dollars in the house raise two million. We saw big jumps between two thousand and fourteen and two thousand and sixteen actually two thousand and fourteen was a year. Put participation was low, two thousand and sixteen, obviously politics got kind of more crazy Democrats. Have We need to build on that. Where look inside really retreated. You know that gap comes from and again in swing. Districts as well as all districts Democrats have outraised Republicans based on public funds,

two to one so far, and there's nothing like that going back as far as we can see in the data, but that has two causes, which is both democratic fund. Raising is, and republican fund raising is bad, or at least bad relative to these higher thresholds that both parties had been setting in recent years. So I want to get to the second part of our public information being bad, but just just to this notion that do not buy that there's an element of kind of a nationalized interest in this midterm and some machinery, whether it's podcasts or Democrats, being smart by getting gas move. Suppose. Well, you know now that you are here, for you know, is it Iraq cm the idea that it's the idea, the positive America's new fire side chat right, the establishment? What do you not think that there are liberals around the country who are kind of finding it

th Arctic or, however, you want to characterize it to donate in small amounts to a bunch of different races? That they're being kind of this is the podcast election, and no I mean how would I get a phenomenon? Forget podcasting, let's just say, like people in you know main sending money is better or cat to some other place as a sort of way to show actually looked so much like the uh state versus out of state spreads, I think sometimes there's mythology around that might not hold like. I think actually Beto has raised a high portion of his money in state than TED Cruz, as if I remember that right, you know, I mean certainly there's some tactical spending. More Democrats are more aware now what the competitive races are, but like the fundamental characteristic of this house playing field, is that it's extremely large we show, I think the class version. R model shows one hundred and fifteen seats that are competitive. The deluxe version, hedges on the upside there. So it's more like a

but still if we had run a model at this point in twenty sixteen, it would have been like forty or forty five seats, and so there are like, two or two and a half times as many seats in play, and a lot of that is because Democrats nominated credible candidate to have a the money, and so they have a lot of lottery tickets district where they have it ten or fifteen, or twenty points it's a winning in the mostly not, though the one a few of those likely Nate you. Earlier that people like didn't quite appreciate how huge the democratic advantage seems to be like on the generic ballot or the national pop you which it's like up to eight or nine percentage points are the fund raising. Numbers in line with that, or do they speak to an even bigger democratic advantage? Now they're probably are probably pinched better I don't know if you actually calculate like what, if you only used fundraiser to make production, I tried to quick version of that and like soda, Let's have about it, a two to one edge if you look historically at house races that, like that What party is a two to one edge. It wins on.

Average by ten or eleven points, and so that would suggest points better even than than the generic ballot. So let's get to this connection. There is a connection between fund raising numbers and Enthusiasm Claire. Do you want to start? Do you still feel like fund raising? Is the Singa just wait to measure enthusiasm at this point? Do you trust that this is a a measurement of it hi into CS? No, I mean, I think it's I think. One thing we haven't talked about is it's also easier to make. Missions. It's getting easier and easier for people in whatever state to transfer money to the through the candidate that they like. So I think political donations, just by virtue, You know the van no era. People are just thinking of easier ways for people to get, and so people who are more engaged voters are more likely to get those things, but I still think it's most useful to to look at, or it is incredibly useful to look at pull surveys of likely voters and and to say, like what percentage of people are act,

but you know they are almost positive- that they will go out and vote on election day, because I don't know I would be interested actually to compare percentages of people who donate to percentages of likely voters. I'm sure donations are much lower like the number of people who donate is lower than likely voters, but I would be interested see whether or not that's like. I don't think we their numbers on this, but whether or not numbers of mirrored each other. It's interesting 'cause I, as I said earlier, I have this sort of same initial skepticism of fund raising numbers, not that there are meaningful. I think they are meaningful with democratic enthusiasm, but just because they're so they're so out of whack with history and out of whack with other indicators that you know you're a little skeptical of them, but but I don't you're right that it has gotten easier to donate money, but has it gotten easier in a way that would exacerbate differences and enthusiasm

you get what I mean it's gotten easier across the board. So it's not like we're like, oh well. We know Democrats overperformed in small donor fundraising. This had happened until this year and it's a big difference. I almost feel the fund raising numbers are a little bit underrated counter. Take the counter counter. I don't even think I had to take say that you're skeptical, the poles and you're not allowed to use polls and election forecast. Then what would you use? Fundraiser Michael, would read lcds fundraising to be one of the first things you use yeah I would like to like you know nothing. You might look at. We don't use this term. I really think we don't need to use. It doesn't help when you have polls but like you could look at special election results right. Those two things are good tangible, real indicators of real behavior and they're. Both really good Democrats better than the polls are, and so, if you're, like you say, topes, never would sapol now have to construct the forecast that a pole would

better for Democrats. Then then the forecast out there. I was actually thinking about this over the weekend that, if not for two thousand and sixteen when a lot of leaning model got burned, I feel like we would have this year. Some like models that were like Joe Fund Raising and and special elections and they'd, be saying. Oh five hundred and thirty is way too skeptical of Democrats showing only what do you see gain on average they should actually be showing at ADC K well you're playing earlier. I'm not I'm not quite sure what the conventional wisdom is this right now it's maybe maybe it's actually not that misplaced. What story is that you have a clear? But overwhelming favorite in both chambers and they happen to be the opposite parties from another. You know, if that's your basic take on the House and the Senate, then we're not really going to argue with you that much know that that generally agrees

forecast, but one thing, the media. It isn't great at doing what, which generally this is like a little bit, not picky, but you know, is, is talking about. He like upside and downside cases, so if the fundraising numbers have gotten less coverage than they should, I think it's because it's hard for it's hard as a as a reporter to describe uncertainty and to say hey. You know this is our reader, the race, but these funds. If these fund raising numbers are right, then maybe it's a tsunami. I do also think that the fund raising story has largely been about O'Rourke's campaign in Texas, and I just think it's sucked up a lot of air to be on like where like. Where are you reading? Besides us all that much about across the board spikes in fund raising? I don't, I don't think it's a prevailing narative. I think the prevailing narrative is O'Rourke raced into money but that was the sort of I thought most fascinating thing about. The analysis we did last week was that there was this

many narrative for like a week or two ago that, like all Democrats, are over donating to our work and it's under in on its and they're, not spending their money around and are now so, so that no they actually are. As Nate said, you know it's in these very competitive districts where they do have a genuine fund raising advance yeah. That's that's a lazy narrative. You know. I actually one thing. I do think the conventional wisdom is a bit wrong. You're hinting at this is like. I think people underestimate the chance that Democrats could win fifty seats in the house. I think people underestimate the chance that Republicans could actually gain like two or three or four seats in the Senate. Those are both outcomes that are in the like meaty part of the probability distribution and those are not things that are like just so. If something crazy, that's right, those are both like entirely plausible outcomes, and I think I think people would treat them as shocking and they shouldn't and they can go back and play this podcast. If Democrats win

fifty house seats of crowds win, win three Senate seats not like those are pretty typical kind of outcomes that we could fairly easily see. I mean our our eighty percent confidence interval, which is as Nate says. That's like the meaty part of the Bell curve runs from Democrats gaining sixteen seats, so falling just short of that. I've taken a house to sixty seats, yeah, so the to be clear that eighty per confidence interval the curve extends well beyond that. It's. So let me ask one other question about fund raising the. Maybe we can talk about Republicans very briefly, but this is mostly speculate it may be worth just asking. Is there any chance that all this fun using enthusiasm. All these individual donations happening mostly online would have any sort of undermining effect for Democrats? In that it's cathartic? It feels like you've done your

art, and so then maybe people don't go to the polls because they've mashed that donate button a bunch of times is this. I mean I don't. I don't actually believe this, but I just figured that doesn't that's like saying: if someone paid one hundred dollars for like a big MAC, would they not eat a big MAC for free if it was awful, the majority satiated? What does that mean? No, I don't know what that means, but I'm pretty sure it's not a good metaphor. If you paid one hundred voting or big matting is free yeah, but voting harder when it cost my computer and hitting the button. That's my point like how much confidence do we feel like it will connect between doing the easy thing, as Claire said, to doing is proving to be a pretty hard Bing, which is go to the app, maybe maybe you're different, most people Jody would say rather spend some time then spend money right. So free people don't think about the third time. I you have there yeah I've I've alley. My time way more. I value as in like you, don't want to entertain

fashion anymore and we should know in a stylish, so here's here's here's. What about this as inequality has increased and ask the parties have sorted more bite proxies for income like edge Haitian? Could there be something there that fucks up the how indicative fund raising is? You when something like that happens, you see it happen gradually and then we could say: oh can we build in some? Listen to our model for this. For that 'cause we know, but like it, just happened. All of a sudden, I mean look. The Occam's razor explanation we haven't appraisal is that My cats are really enthusiastic and charged up and Republicans are not an that very dangerous. For Republicans I mean it's not necessarily that complicated, not that convincing razor

they're kind of falls in the uncanny valley. For me, the other part basically shares can be used very briefly. Any thoughts on we talked about there's a big democratic advantage, but there's also suppressed or, however, you want to call it republican fund raising levels. Is that manifesting itself in any particular way that that is like races that are being hurt by it or what's going on? There so in twenty sixteen sixty four congressional campaigns on the GOP side had raised at least two million dollars twenty days before the election this year, instead of sixty four, it is seventeen, that's significant and that small donations are they making up for that in any other way with packs or any other kind of money yeah, there was a report out today or yesterday, or something that actually that showed that, like

Republicans actually have more cash on hand at this moment, which accounts for the kind of big dollar fundraising where the GOP has some advantages, but like Claire's right that I would pay more attention to the small dollar donors, because one it's just more, it feels like it could be more indicative of voter enthusiasm. But to like look these campaigns combined, but Claire just said about you- know fewer GOP campaigns being well lost with what Nate said earlier about the playing field being particularly for all of this year does have the same calls to some extent, but they also make it really uh for Republicans, and I think that's why you see these reports of them sort of like triage, NG races and cutting off funds yeah. I wonder if republicans aren't make, a little bit of it. Mistake there, because, like one in NY in triage, triaging races are not true, edging enough too many

so that's not spreading out the wealth a little bit more. I guess the republican thing to do but like where, where are model? If you know we are like, we have a big confidence in you mentioned if you look at the earth games were more optimistic because we expect this very large menu of likely republican District are Democrats to pick a few of those off and a lot of them are because, like you have a district, that's fifteen, points, republican leaning, but the Democrat has outrage the GOP incumbent, four to one and maybe the different little bit quirky and tends to be more of a purple at the congressional level than for president or something else right I mean I would be really area of the GOP that, like some places where I'm not paying much attention to 'cause, remember like only four thousand and forty five percent of the country turns out for the midterms. Maybe it's going to be up to fifty percent in some districts, this here I mean it will be in some. You know, if turn out is that low, then, if

sides voters turnout in years, don't you can be in a pretty darn republic district and lose, and the fact that you have these key It's have not faced a competitive race. In years. All the sudden are raising three hundred thousand 'cause, their opponent has a million and a half I mean I'm not sure what to make of those races but like it, wouldn't likely me to sleep easily at night. If I were republican, ok we're going to leave it there and we're going to talk about the governor's races next, but first, let me tell you that today's podcast is brought to you by we work, whether you a team of two or two hundred at we work space matters from single desk solutions and innovative amenities to flexible private offices designed to grow along your head count. We work gives your business the space you need to connect, focus, build and succeed. We work now has over two hundred and eighty locations across more than seventy cities in twenty four countries around the world, making it the perfect partner for your next satellite office, regional head, or remote employees. This kind of thing can be one

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days later with results like that. It's no wonder that you, because is the highest rated hiring say in America right now. You can try it for free at Ziprecruiter, DOT, com, slash, five, three, eight! That's recruiter dot com use the numbers, slash five three eight zip recruiter the smartest way to hire. Back and let's talk about our newly published covers forecast. Thirty six states are electing governors, this fall and we are going to look at the most competitive, inconsequential, races and I'll say there was a great model talk last week with Nathan Gala on this lots of questions, both wonky and top line were answered. Their I didn't get a chance, go back and listen, but talk here as well, clear in general sense, how important are gubernatorial races for parties and for policies on the ground? We tend, on the congressional race in the Senate race, but you know what's at stake while dearly departed Harry and I read a story last year together about the historic Eben power of Democrats. ' nationwide- and it had a lot to do not just with their lives

the White House, but the fact that over the course of the uh administration. They had lost control of state houses and quite a few governor's mansions you that story out, I don't remember the name of it but Yes, I did I had like Obama won. The White House. Democrats lost the country, something like that, but it's not about him yeah. I probably rather it MIKE ok, most Ernest man, I'm just a being pulled's like, is pulling the strings but governor's obviously we'll a lot of power in the sense of they can veto bills at it, come before them and state legislatures and it has been. I am not the first person at all to point this out, but there are quite a few voting rights laws that that people talk a lot about right now, as you know, as far as the election being in a couple of weeks and then twenty twenty coming down the line, so I think people are paying a lot of tension to governor's mansions and

part because of the big losses that Democrats had during the Obama administration, and now they seem to be paying attention to state level offices in a way that Republicans to their great credit kind of did for a long time and Democrats are now sort of catching up to that. The other thing is, but because Republicans one have been focused on this, but just because they made up so much ground during the Obama years there now incredibly over exposed at the state level, it's kind of like the inverse of the Senate. Let's dive into some specific races and, let's start our tour of the nation in the se, with Florida away. So we've talked about a number of times, but MIKE of what what's what's what's going on there? I I was this: was there the forecast? I think that most surprised me. Where we show Andrew Gillum the Democrat as a pretty healthy favorite, seven and nine favorite RON, Desantis who's, a former representative from there

is a two and nine underdog. You know it's got a lot of attention. I think I would have expected Gillum to be a head, but I don't seven and nine is a pretty healthy, healthy favorite. Isn't it that's? Fourteen in seen her seventy in ninety. Seventy eight percent chance. What is it is? It? Is this an indicator of the national environment This is an indicator. Something is happening in Florida. Is this say something about? No. This is a weird state. It's like God, a lot of interesting political trends contained within it. It contains multitudes, it does make its Whitman. There are a ton of polls in Florida of other words, a brief pause with the hurricane affecting the Panhandle, and they all the same thing in some ways is one of the most straightforward races anywhere in the country at any governor's House or Senate race. To forecast is like almost all the

so give him a heads up and have him wait had some that have nearly I had, but they all have a head. But the question is why why we we think he has such a healthy and consistent lead, because it's a purple state in a blue and you have to. Can I tour effectively pretty based been pretty liberal and pre concert? Yeah right, I mean you know, I might say, I think one of them is performed the debates or whatever right but like this is what you'd expect kind of right. You would expect in a purple state in a year where the generic ballot favors Democrats by eight or nine points, generic ballot translates well the governor's race you'd expect the Democrat to be ahead. If the candidates are equal equal by six points in an environment like that right, the polls show and so like. I don't think this requires that much explanation. People bring a lot of assumptions the table whose gillam is black in and you know, but the sentence is a right way: whiten very conservative, very white, but like very conservative

Gillum himself, there was a debate last night. As of us taping, this, the lefty per of the internet, seem to be very taken with Gillum. Is there any there were always taken yeah with yeah, but anyway he's a good Canada, but any like this isn't really about the government. The legacy as a stock rising? Is he someone who wishes who will show up in future? Our conversations about presidential campaigns or anything sure but the but the bar to get into a conversation Presidential campaigns is, is pretty low, but not There are few governor's races this year, where, depending on the result. You will see these people up pop up in conversations about two thousand and twenty or two thousand and twenty four and give it's one of those people, so maybe another one on that list is in Georgia. There are some similar dynamics and play some similar candidates. So there's and I won one lap dogs- and I will talk about- why does not stand where they are with Abrams in Camp Camp is a

five and nine favorite Brian Camp Secretary of State of Georgia, Stacey Abrams, a Democrat. There is a four nine underdog and there's an end. There's a libertarian party candidate, who makes our model with less than a one in one hundred chance of winning holler TED. Matt says I learned in model talk is included because he's included in all of the polling and stuff here and get in the polling. Then you get to be in our model, so clear tells about TED Maths. Let's go from the bottom up. Tell us about ten minutes. Well, he has the last name. Last name is a New York sports team. That is also her any under dot, should spell it with a Z. Well, only only required for their brand could give a good answer to that question so clear what he watching in this race. Are you surprised that that I'm not watching TED Mets? Yes, I think we talk about this and other podcasts, but I think Stacy Abrams candidacy is a very interesting one because of her proposition that

she could help herself to victory by yes, when over Republicans or republican leaning independence are kind of like. I don't feel great about the Republicans or Trump right now, perhaps, but also she, you know, she's counting a lot on turning out african american voters, making sure that that that community actually votes in the selection- and I think your you know- That'S- It- says it's a similar interesting case with in Florida, where we're sort of changing like what kind of candidates can win a race like that, where you really need to try your base. But you also need to win the most moderate voters. And yes, Stacey Abrams is a is a black woman and it it's America, and so it may for interesting, dynamic, she's, also running against an extremely conservative guy in camp, who is the Secretary of State and

If people I'm sure listeners of this podcast of heard quite a bit about the voter roll controversy happening in Georgia, where you know thousands of people account services funded from the roles, many of them african American. So if TED Metz spelled his name on the voter rolls with an s instead of a z, he would have to vote for yeah. Can I get? Can I also just I mean this is this is something we haven't talked about in a while, but the other thing I think about with races, like, like George there's, already a lot of down disillusionment with the system of voter registration? I do start to think about we've talked in a while, but election meddling, and I did some reporting on the spring, but but one tactic that election security experts talk about is a very effective one: potentially for sowing doubt in our elections, if of with a foreign entity, just to insert themselves would be to screw with voter

so that when people showed up at the polling place, they wouldn't be, they would be turned away, and you know you're already seeing this huge pre election Khan. Season in Georgia just exactly to that the, and so it does make you think about election day itself in two weeks you know Good things. Look like in in Georgia or in certain counties in Florida. You know whatever it might be. That is a thing I think election security experts think a lot about and worry a lot about. Good news is Florida's. Just has such a sterling track when it comes to, but this whole matter. This is a matter. Here's a hot take for you, guys. Okay, I think the governor's races I'd last time. I said this is not thank you all give me because he said it was a conventional wisdom. So maybe that's the case here, but what get out currently cooling off his

take right before he even says I think the while the governor's races have gotten far less attention than the races for the House and the Senate. I think they're going to have an outsized role in the interpretation, two thousand and eighteen, where very likely not very likely likely Democrats win the house we can win the Senate, keep the Senate very likely. Democrats will make gubernatorial gain. So I think that will help give the post election narrative a blue hue right, but also like going into twenty. Hey if Gillam wins, if Abrams wins and in particular They win by turning out non white voters by turning out young voters. Then that offers one interpretation. If they lose, but Richard Cordray

in Ohio, wins, big and Scott Walker gets blown and walk Wisconsin. Then that's like sort of a different interpretation. I'm not saying it should be different, but I but that's my hot type. Let's Sir Forecast goes more or less to plan. Democrats win the seven. Let's call it house seats, Republicans gain a net of one seat in the and maybe there's one race still on call, but not enough Democrats to win Democrats win most of these big governor's races. Maybe they win Florida. Georgia is going to run off which can happen in Georgia. They win all the Midwest. Go loses by seven points. Where

I think the narrative is what's the headline in the New York Times the next morning. See here is what makes it difficult is weirdly and it shouldn't, but I think it will. I think, it'll come down, it'll be very marginal. In other words, let's say Democrats don't lose the Senate seat; they just the Senate stays the same. Then I think the headline will be Democrats. Make big gains in house governorships hold steady in sent it. If Democrats lose two seats in the Senate, then I think it's more. The the headline is more equivocal. That's true! I I tend to think that the media will be bullish on Democrats, democratic outcomes, no matter what in part, because it's where the interesting stories are, I see a lot of pushing of like the year of the woman on the democratic side. There's there's also the idea that Democrats are in some ways a more sting narratives, because you're interpreting into the twenty

twenty primary, I mean people are going to start announcing their candidacies post haste after the midterm results. So I think they're, good, there's gonna be a tendency to be like well, this person lost Beto O'Rourke. Perhaps yeah, but they did extremely well in that. It's sort of you know like losing your way to winning a spot in the primary. That kind of thing like. I just think that there's going to be a little bit more of like a the default, they will default towards big night for Democrats, yes in rebuke to Trump comma TI eighty k and the sub light headed out headline is you know, but Republicans expect to hold Senate or something? I think great. Now that seems right, although if they, if they just go to the finish line at Democrats, win the house by the way we said parts of an eighty or eighty five percent chance, one of my house, doesn't always mean that eighty or eighty percent, and they do it without a sweat right that, who's, the scenarios where they win it by one or two or three seats and where we have to wait for accounts in mail ballots to come in from California, and it's really a sweat and by the

Also, when republicans win the house that fifty percent of the time, that's often a sweat too. In fact, those tend to be very close outcome but let's bring it back to the governors model just very quickly in the ones that travel. But may let me just ask you, I don't say that you do you and and get on to that, a fair amount on the Wisconsin Ray specifically during model talk. So let ask you a larger question about the Midwest Minnesota, Iowa Illinois. Michigan are all looking poised to elect democratic governors. Wiscconsin leans, slight blue Ohio. We have is a toss up this part of the country that went for trump. So, what's going on, here Jody. Are you familiar with this disco precept known as reversion, to the mean only because I listened to the hit podcast from five hundred and thirty? So happens is that when one party does really well in one election that it tends to regress to the mean in subsequent elections, the very places Jody where do well. This is how you're going to talk on ABC, where Donald Trump to the best in twenty sixteen might be the play

Where you have the biggest fall off. Voters aren't necessarily bought in Publican brand. They might not turn out, so the Midwest is often where they occur. Swings are strongest. I like we need some sound effects. I find that voice more pleasing tire and there not more bored what why the Midwest specifically but but but but but actually, I will push you a little bit on what you just said in that amazing voice. The very place there was is the is the most likely place to swing back 'cause he's these are places where Trump overperformed in twenty sixteen and therefore you can have under performance as a result of voters who are either tentative, but remember all those undecided voters who, after Clinton campaign Johnson Michigan you're, call me they all kind of went to trump those states. Those are like the ruling party. Sometimes last in first out, if you're a swing voter and you swung to trump- you might not

the strong atrium yeah, there's troopers, someone in Georgia or Tennessee prigs. There also states that were traditionally associated with the Democratic Party if you're talking about like the Old School union model of things, like, I think, Conor Lamb's election in Pennsylvania was sort of really interesting. Crystallization of this, where you know Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin the dust Real Midwest states with maybe more culturally conservative voters, voters were very used to you know: family ties to the Democratic Party, and you know pro. Maybe pro union ties in their paths and I think that that those kinds of voters in the Midwest tend to flow a bit more. Let's remember to that undecided voters for Congress, people who were agnostic between Clinton and Trump all devoted very strongly republican for Congress by like a two to one margin or something because they thought that Clinton would be proud. Therefore, you want a republican to balance that balance. I think strong too, to people are like. Oh, how can trump will be up, but generic ballot is getting worse. The GOP well you'd actually usually expect that

ballot to lag Trump approval because, like voters who are indifferent toward trump- and there aren't many- but there are a few might say- hey look. Republicans are in charge of anything on the fence about travel, to put some Democrats in Congress to check power a little bit and then One of the fundamental reasons why there's almost always a swing against the president's party at the midterms wait? A second has the midwest are reverted to the Mean or Democrats outperforming their well. Nothing's happened yet people people have the only fault that matters saying in our forecast. You know what I mean like yeah. It seem not only has it kind of reverted a bit, in other words, Republicans are not outperforming there. It seems, like Democrats are out like it's a democratic stronghold for actually now in, like it swung from strongholds stronghold yeah, maybe not quite so. Well, but yeah like I mean, certainly all these Senate races that Republicans had some hope of making competitive so Michigan,

Seven Wisconsin Ohio Minute Pennsylvania, which I consider part of the political questions, Kay yeah, I'm gonna sort of that special action Minnesota the polls are are good places, so that race is at least on the radar there two elections in Minnesota for center this year, even Donnelly in Indiana, is like a pretty strong favorite, not all about it. If you trust this american view, point poll guys any thoughts on this. I have thoughts on Ohio, which is that I think it would have been a closer race if Josh Mandel hadn't had to drop out and took over as republican nominee like halfway through the cycle also Sherrod Brown's particular brand of. Nis is extremely adapt to the to the Trump age to Ohio in the Trump age, because he has long been talking bins. You know anti free trade poppy

Yeah he's doing really well will Claire well, the the post election narrative be Democrats, come back in the Midwest or the Midwest has on wildly democratic, if Scott Walker loses in Wisconsin, I think that has an outsize effect. Ok, we gotta start rap here. Let me see if I can offer power rankings of the remaining government. This in terms of interesting ness, so Kansas Alaska, Nevada. Those are like the three anyone got any thoughts on that anyone other in Alaska. You had you had the end of incumbent drop out of the rays, which gives mark baggage, former senator Mark Baggage, a much better chance 'cause. You basically had a leaning, independent and they were splitting what there is of center in the left, vote in Alaska, and so now that races more competitive, I think Kansas is really interesting cans interest. Why is Crisco back doing so? Poorly there I mean he's the favorite, but like

the meek, favorite well, okay and red state. First of all, Mica part chip is only about one slash. Three is powerful in governorships as it is as it is in races for Congress to good factoid. So, therefore, Kansas in the governor's race is the equivalent of like Ohio or something or not. Even that may be awesome North Carolina and a Senate race, yeah yeah. That's the point of that story. Similarly, awesome. The point: where is that Ohio is awesome, but it's also genuine. You reject true Ohio pride. It's also a race where I mean Ohio. We give this exercise if you listener either had to spend the rest of your life in Ohio or you were randomly assigned to one of the other. Forty nine states equally weighted, and again you should be with your entire life. I would take the field in Asec

there are a lot of states. I would obviously live in Ohio, like obviously it is currently. Like my number to like, if I had to out of New York. I've moved to Ohio, just like I mean above like pretty much most other places, just look at a list of states MIKE and there are a lot of state. Forty, nine one is our forty nine. I don't want to sell it to the penny states but like there are a lot of state, I'm one if needs be regained his answers. California read this. Obviously I'm a beach person, though So I would your short person, that's not the same. Okay, I'm really trying to cultivate her. So now, as I'm as I'm being, I'm like very against the heartland. So, okay, let's start travel any any bad things to say about either of the Dakotas Michael, real, quick before we wrap the manager. How much time do you all right, we're gonna and that there before we

I just wanted to give a quick shout out to our friends at ABC News and their daily morning. Podcast start here. We have all been on the show: a bunch talk about random stuff and tape in the same studio, so it's nice to be in the same room as them. The show is that each morning it covers the big stories today, but also goes into some of the original reporting, that's happening across ABC in five hundred and thirty minutes, or so I know people's appetites for choose, is ramping up, especially as we get to the last couple weeks for the mid term so check it out? You can just say: start here in your favorite podcast app on Google, keep popping up there from time to time so go find it at her Nate Silver. Thank you as always. Thank you, Claire Malone, thanks to you thank you and again, if the new Mets would like to change their name and spell it with AZ all if there's just credit Claire Bellona five hundred and thirty eight. For that idea, Michael Cohen, thanks to you, my name is Jody African. I want to give a quick shout out to the New York men's ultimate team pride of new which I play for many years and they won a national championship. Yesterday, it's a big thing in my world Galindo,

The producer Tony Chow is in the control room, remember to turn back in tomorrow. 'cause we're going into daily politics. Podcast mode will be talking about topics like voting laws in campaign ads. You can get. Emailing us podcast at five hundred and thirty, that you can also course tweeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave a rating or review in the Apple podcast store. The rating it helps our rankings, which helps others discover the show or just tell someone about the show, thanks again for listening and will see you soon