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Welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Galen droop Judy's out today it was an interesting weekend. Sports and politics collided when President Trump spent the weekend targeting the NFL saying owners should either fire or suspend players who protest during the national anthem, player, and owners and the players Union responded negatively to the president for his comments and on Sunday, alot of players, locked arms and or kneeled in response to the President show here with me she discuss are editor in chief need. Solar has gone good. It was gonna, get to watch football for my job this weekend. Although what kind of you my job, many one senior politics, writer Clementine Haven has gone. It's good get to see him get to see you too and another sooner politics.

Better hurry, entered how you doin my two among Buffalo bill as I watch football, no matter what, but now I was able to write on it and watch this. We can so good weekend. Fora for the buffet so, we're all going to spend some time today, looking ahead to two thousand eighteen and entertaining some, what, if scenarios critically that clearer looked into in the Senate, but before we get to that, let's begin where the weekend began. Friday night Trump was in Alabama stumping for Luther Strain, in the special send an election there and he went off in various different directions, including the NFL and Here's what you said when you love to see one of these NFL owners when somebody disrespects our flag to say get that son of a blow job right now, he's tire show another players. Almost all african American have been protesting. Police brutality against Afric

Americans, for over a year now by kneeling or raising their fists during the national anthem. Before we get to trumps comment, specifically, let's talk a little bit about those protests are joining. Us is Kyle Wagner, senior five. Thirty eight sportswriter hiccup has gone mister thanks for joining us before they. What were these protests like how many people were involved in what was a message before week, there were a handful of teams, like maybe five or six on week, one a few more we too, and they were kind of, came and went the big you no kind of blow up happened last season with common captain but the season home fans reviewing the teams but like there wasn't a lot of media cover and there was this- would just kind of like the way things were in the NFL now, but week. Obviously a lot more like nearly every team, you had some kind of protest on the sidelines and you got Roderick Adele, who is not new, For being the most you know, player friendly

or the liberal of presences out there just kind of deciding trump the owners who came out- and this is the first time that, like kind of lead management has been Minos. Speaking up on this side of the issue, this, had very, very anodyne comments about, like how oh yeah, we support a players. You know right to free speech, but Trump gods management out against him as well, and you would say like before. This, in fact, were many players who were critical of calling capper Nick and many players, such as La Mccoy, is to start running back the Buffalo bills. Who said that essentially Capron? It would be a distraction and other eighty seven. Those were not exactly those words, but would be a distraction, and now he's coming on. You know in calling Trump some not very nice words on twitter, so I just thought it was very interesting how you gonna unify everything right, absolutely ends. I mean as trump you no kind of tends to do like he made it about Trump. Also so well. A lot of they're still argue, obviously protesting the things that, like the protest, began about

it did take on this air of like everyone- was kind about their brawling with Trump instead of talking about, you know what they came, their talk about, it helped the shots were fired, staff, curry and the Brown wait and I have to say, you gotTa Buffalo affair, you gonna Cleveland vans. Nobody I like in what I believe this is like be one of those seminal moment in the trunk presidency. Truly because its though it's the confluence of sports, which Americans love celebrity, which trump is but then you ve also, every one sort of Wang and unless he tried to bring NASCAR into it this morning, saying you don't ask. Invited, but then retail Earnhardt Junior, you know treated back with something about. If you prevent peaceful protest, you ensure violent one. You know, so people are really slap snapping back a trump over this, and I think it's gonna be one of those moments in policy in culture where everyone's gonna tuning in and so it's I think in some ways, cap ex cause the whole taken me cause, has really been helped:

let us begin, because I think a lot more people who work really thinking about it or who are against it might have gained a great understanding of it, because there are some pretty powerful pictures of inner teammates liking hand, with people who were kneeling, even if that they were standing. There was just like a very it was kind of wall to Wall coverage of the stuff. In the past twenty four hours, I think, overcomes the criticism of what common carbonic has done is player should stick to sports. That's what they're there to do. Why are they bringing politics onto the field? I mean how does trump weighing into this whole thing effect? dynamic of that going forward. Obviously gale in the present in the United States. As you know, personally criticising major league athletes than then it's pretty direct me like, I think you stick to. Sport is an interesting thing for a bunch of people employed by european to talk about specially five, thirty, eight, where the two things were best known for recovering sports and in politics and somewhere to some extent

say that sports are a political. You know reflects a certain amount of ice privilege. I guess right where it's kind of war a political if your light, if your wife, you ignore the fact that hey, you know again particularly and fell and the NBA you have the talent, the people who are bringing people drive people to the stadiums and arenas. Are predominantly in those two leagues african american athletes and the people profit out of place are actually very welcome, said in the NBA less so in the NFL, because career expectancies are so short right, but people making. Running. A leagues are overwhelmingly white. Though, inherently that's emblematic of like broader threads in american society that are again especially for football. We have a very closely conservative ownership base. We have big cultural divide within teams between the thirty percent or what is the players who are white often so

and often quite religiousness, sixty five percent of players who are I can not necessarily not religious or not from the south, but like having a very different lived exe. France or whatever else so to say that, like you can totally separate, these things is is wrong it at the same time. You know, I do think that you know sports entertainment and I do think there kind of people aren't used necessarily having all these things being inflicted into their sport, and I guess I feel differently about sport, because the NFL in particular is a sport where you know, there's a lot of branding around patriotism and they're all these rituals at our tied up with the nf on so that sport in particular by but usually it's kind of, left implicit. It is true, the NFL as compared to other sports

is pretty widely view. I don't think it's implicit anymore and sports after nine eleven they started Pino stadiums would start playing. God bless America right before you would sing. Take me out to the ball game in the seventh adding stretch, that's very different than we know, pre nine, eleven stuff this is. This is stuff that I think is in the past. Fifteen years really been layered onto this down to sports, pretty explicitly, dare I say a few things number one: the: U S, Defence Department paid fourteen and fell teams, five billion dollars to honour soldiers in the past few years that this is occurring, and it's not just that. There's a history of the NFL, not just major league baseball and its role in civil rights, one thousand nine hundred and forty six, the LOS Angeles Rams, won the first major professional sports franchises to integrate their team because they were forced to in order to play in the La Coliseum. In nineteen, sixty five, the AFL all STAR game was going to

place in New Orleans, but because of the racial laws in that town, the players boycott at that and forced the game to be moved into Houston. So the idea that sports and politics are not intertwine, at least historically speaking, is a fantasy. It's a pure fantasy like and also stick to sports is based its also its own kind of politics, status quo. Politics of we like the way things are and like you're coming in here, trying to wreck things, and so like tongue players to stick to sports is not saying like we reject, like politics being out here, we're saying what we like politics as they exist, and you know you get the rest of us out of here yeah. What's what's interesting to watching the coverage of all of this, is you certainly have a lot of players, alot of fans who dont like it when people Neil during the national anthem, but you might you'll, cease recognition of people saying whenever they were right to do it. It is because, by the way, these guys do have of of a right to protest peacefully, and it is pretty wild that the present usually president would say you know,

be nice, they would say something more n. A diner would be nice if these people stand and on our people. But you have a right to you. Your protest, that's fine, but I do think a lot of people have been making the point that there is a disconnect between some of the fans and the players, and that's really it hasn't until the past couple of years really come out as hard. So the idea that there are there are a lot of white fans right. There is enough, White Fan Base and the idea of it being upsetting to their status quo is a really interesting thing to talk about, and I think a lot people been making the point of listen. It's not like. I think I saw someone on Twitter say if you're saying that this is all about the flag. You know protesting the flag. That's like saying, Rosa Parks is protesting. Transportation is obviously a pretty powerful metaphor for people and if you dont, like the status quo of America for black people, minorities, this is obviously something it's pretty stirring and if your white male

and thought about it. Before I mean this goes deeper than just you know, the NFL audience obviously so go back a couple weeks. There was a democracy fund pole, and yet we doesn't sixteen voters to trumpeters Hilary voters and they asked people to kind of evaluate like what they thought of different groups. So they asked about Black, some Hispanics Asians, going on down the line, and there was a split like some slight one of like out Hilary voters tended to like minorities a little bit more, but I'm still trumpeters we're overall positive on me: no black people in general night. That's a big ask great then move on to black lives matter and uniformly it just like almost entirely negative and like there's the split of being

it was like diversity and minorities as an idea, but then like when it comes to actually a rubber hits road interests of like what is actually at stake. There's our there's always been a split on that and like you're, seeing that the unifil- and one thing I point out with the NFL as you know, you, mass law on the Washington Post, teamed up on Nepal the summer and they asked you know fans. Are you fond of export? Why sport, professional football, professional, baseball, comparable, complex and obviously, perhaps or to me,

ITALY, not so surprisingly, the NBA the fan base is overwhelmingly democratic. That is self identified. Democrats are overwhelmingly more likely to be pro basketball fans than self identified Republicans. So you know if the idea of perhaps taking a meal is not as controversial among the the fan base as it would be among the NFL fan base, where self identify Republicans are more likely to identifies professional football fans than ourselves identified. Democrats were seeing this real convergence here, that's going on whereby, as we ve been talking about the fan base, perhaps things one way and the players perhaps think another, and that's been messed up to this point, but I got news for you: it's

masked any more with the actions that have occurred this past weekend, but am in speaking about a broader audience in general. How do Americans feel about players taking a need during the anthem, not just nfl fans? I mean, if you kind of us to approve or disapproval cap, Munich is doing most people say they disapprove on an hen. Most people kind to reckon eyes the right to protest, and so it's a little bit more equivocal goal. Then then, you would think right. With what he sang. But you agree with his right to say it this occurred to me were kind of in this middles own. Could I mean I think you can make an argument that pay, by his we bring this in the workplace. We can, however, views he wants cyber he's on the field in all, but it is happening during this anthem ceremony which and always kind of inherently a political act evening. It's a good political act and think it's worth but it is too. We touch on the points are making earlier right as an Are you kind of goody

whose game array, Metz Game or whatever else writer giants, gamer jets game and, like you know, it's kind of one of these only times than you already kind of get involved, wrapped up, can a very rare raw patriotism. Right is this moment when you have a national anthem song it off. Tied in to something that people for the military or toward S. Another Rangers have relationship with police officers and often uttering saying officers, and it's like it's totally find me by areas like kind of an unusual moment to begin a big city where you encounter this kind of more conservative contradiction, identical streets, a white midwestern middle income, expression of patriotism, which might be a controversial thing for me to say, but I think is generally true like who serves the military now, because there is no longer a draft, generally, its people who are poor or from Rural America, was like people colored bottle, but

well, a lot of poor people are often people of color, so I think the milk but the but the sort of sports games- God bless America thing I do think started under George Bush as a pretty explicit, like put the God, bless America bumper sticker on your car. After nine eleven those things became really political, and this is like I remember talking like having those discussions in high school right after the couple years after nine eleven

the Rock war started where patriotism kind of became weapon, Ized Rightward, where people were saying, if you don't vote for this rock war thing than you're, not a patriot you're, not supporting our troops and all that, obviously harking back to the Vietnam WAR like this is all very frayed. It look. We have these public displays of military sort of allegiance almost because people feel a sense of guilt about the way the nome that's retreated when they came back home and I think that something you can't you sort of can ignore their alot of, and there are the norm, that's who are probably- and I fell the oars if it's an older, wider audience, which I think we talked about earlier Galen, maybe off. Why Jerry? right. That NASCAR is actually the wider the audience and also has the highest women Europe amongst the sports. But neat, were you saying that the way that some Americans view this is making political statements in the workplace, which would be bad in other workplaces? Yeah me look. I am not sure if he can say it's a fuel:

free speech issue, because maps out, I believe, can a deeply in free speech, including not just kind of constitutional, connected speech, right, which I guess it's not that popular of your point- but I am talking about like you, can see hey you know their job is to compete. The field and an inner we all give? certain de facto privileges at work. Right, but again it's not like these are happening during a ceremony. That is not a neutral inevitable. You know, I don't know the history of this as well as some other people, but I dont think you ve always had the national them sung Games are not the kind of big ceremony with a giant flag because, with a particular the NFL in aiding, used to have guided us a mere ass, a song, it baseball games, additional national anthem on Sundays and women's very long formula. You're beautiful. Renditions during Yankees games by it is being inserted into the sporting event.

Already a political environment reassign at least that at least two or three minutes right, because there are lots of other countries where there is like a national anthem, song or anything right. There's not like this a deliberate choice that people who run colleagues have made. You can agree that choice or not, but but you know yet, I can't I can't go back and refine comments. I said earlier when I said like a lot of times. The sporting games are like a white middle class. Middle America. Suppression of patriotism, kind of what I would I mostly mean by that could in my mind I was harking back to the Bush era. What I mean is sporting games have almost like the republican sense of patriotism. That's what I mean sort of this, not this birth and the George Bush nine eleven era, expression of patriotism, which democratic always heard of resented because it sort of been it's been played against. Similar Obama wrote you know. Sometimes I think when he was a senator in saying. I wish that when people on the left protested, they did it more with a flag over them, so the people couldn't hold it against them, and I think it is

is because America is changing demographically and the patriotism or the views on America that minority groups have minority groups are bigger and therefore I think there. This is inevitably going to happen. The different expressions- patriotism right because, like I say, amid Westerner from Cleveland for like an amish person, verses like a historic June York, whatever like people are gonna, have different senses. Different sense of identity tie to what America is just based on like when they came here or how steep they are and what we said. The pledges agents every morning at my school, but not every school in America. Does that, like that? Very I think we ve. I think the thing that's happened is this goes back a long time to at least in recent history to nine eleven and how and how we deal with, the participation of the flag. I would say it goes a little before that So I mean you had to fly over his during the first Iraq war, and you know what they're there's a history of this stuff

but like also Harry mentioned earlier, that, like the ambition that has a very democratic- and you know, diverse fan group will ninety. Six, not that long ago, moved up. No roof was sitting down doing now, Let them know noticed for months and then in March, near the end of the season. Some sportswriter noticed ask him about it and it became a whole big turned out. He was a Muslim in you just said that like will the flag represent depression to me and racism and I'm not going to stand for it, and he was this. The guy who averaged thirty points a game as Chris Jackson in at Lsu played with Shaq. He was averaging about one thousand, nine hundred and twenty points a game at the time and the next season he was traded lost his starting. Thus sponsorships was added league in a few years. Is house was burned down like like, as he says like there were your racial epithets written on it

This is a thing that, like even in the NBA, which has better history with its vans, you know being open. Then baseball are certainly football like there. There's a history of this like like going back of away like even before Bush speaking about how the broader public and fans view these acts of protest ere. You look back into some public opinion data about how protests during the civil rights movement were perceived by the public. What did you say? Well, essentially, what the peace? That's on the website. Right now shows- is that a lot of times protest, whether they be for civil rights, whether they be against wars, may not be popular in their own error, but the viewpoints that articulated by the people who are marching eventually become the dominant opinion in the american discourse. So you know the Washington Post at a great article last year and which they pointed out that most Americans didn't approve of the freedom riders protest in the early sixties, the March on Washington and sixty three or other similar

does indeed Martin Luther King, who now is held up as almost godlike figure in the american psyche in nineteen sixty six. Sixty three percent of Americans gave king a negative score on a scale from minus five, two positive, five and now think about where we, I think, those all of those things lined up together, were really striking to me how unpopular these movements that we now teaches, like them, the moral right in America how unpopular were and its because their upsetting to the status quo. I think that's the thing with with these

the test is that people do recognize it we're an incredibly polarized country, and so when you come to a game, it's almost like this thing about war alors here to watch this game, and why are you guys ruining this one like nice, little show of togetherness that we have in a very polarized country right and so an end for the players, its that's the whole point, it's that we wanted to stop this because we are not we're not equal, but it is. It is the sense of command like let's have a nice show of unity. I mean to me like Harry's Postboy, put the wide to people come announcing, our like we wish. There is another way to do this, like that. You know, wasn't so disruptive like all these things that, like had been effective in the past

I'm are things that make people uncomfortable in the present. You know it's not just fifty years ago where we were seeing that type of thing I mean it was twenty five years ago, when people marching for gay right. You know there was a tremendous. A huge gay rights protest are marching. Ninety ninety three on Washington and an Newsweek survey that was conducted at the time only twenty three percent of America. Thought that the demonstration did more good than harm in the fight for gay rights, and many and now we looked back and especially gay rights organisations. Look back, and I say it. That March was the start of something comment, and now it's sort of not necessarily culminated but much of the platform that was being argued for at those marches in fact become mainstream. But when we talk about policy on this package, we often look at things in terms of how popular as it and that's how we judge, how likely it is to become law, or

ruin a politicians, chances of being reelected. So, while these were unpopular, why did they still manage to change policy, Well, so one way to think about it is that you can shape public opinion a lot in the long run, if you're willing to do things that are unpopular in the short run, and this applies to a lot of things Think some of the awareness of the ninety nine percent right, I'm not sure if those protests rather popular at first, but they do shape things in the world you know, on the right kind of concern over abortion is something. That became more of a movement overtime and it can be divisive in the short term, but it can influence countries politics enough alone. I think game. The one game ever for me. I remember going in to my freshman year of college and people, but you know like

our chances in America tend to be pretty liberal and people still kind of like having debates about it. You know I wasn't it wasn't a foregone conclusion for a lot of people. There were real debates going on and in the dump you know, especially in the Democratic Party, and I think, by the time I graduated from college. It was like You know every onboard right. All the Democrats are all the all liberals were kind of like yeah. This is going to happen. This is this is the track. This is the right way to do it. You know there wasn't. It was no longer talking about simply unions, so that was a big change and that was you know. That's and now we conduct forget all about that civil unions risen gay marriage debate. It was no more than ten years ago in which a majority of the country was again same sex marriage, seven unions was seen in less than ten years ago we five living A three democratic presidential can actually is and a right now at you know when you could go. You know your name mentioned occupy Wall Street. You know it's kind of changing the discussion I remember covering back, and pointing out at the time, and the appalling suggests. The same thing is that more people had a negative

then positive view of that, according to an embassy Wall Street Journal upon July, two thousand, while so some things that may be unpopular in their time may in fact shape the discussion later on, and I think it often the protesters themselves that are unpopular. Yes right, like people made relentless fun of the ninety nine percent protesters because they had the human microphone and things like that. Capron ex career is being ruined right now because of his protests. So I think people hate the actual people who are doing it, but event

The ideas can can often echo out of this room. I call working talk a little bit about the repercussions and motivations fur. Donald Trump do have some parting words for us. I would say that a lot of people have like kind of been no shown concern or like concern trolling about the nature of the protests turning to Trump and instead of the kind of losing sight of the police brutality, annual kind of over racism in law enforcement that they originally we're about, and I think that is that's fair, but at the same time, Trump represents like those deeper social issues like he ran on the lawnmower platform, and he enables like, with his department, adjusted Everything else caught thinks, and while we have you here, you are actually involved in an NBA podcast that five, their data is launching joint help, people how they can listen to her

so the episode is first episode of next week, we're running in the hot take down feed. So if you already subscribe to that, just stay tuned and you'll be getting episodes of the lab, which is the name of the new podcast, That's with me Chris Herring in your pain and will be talking in Ba every week. I think soccer thinks we're gonna talk. Little bit about what's going on for from here, why he said the things he sang and how the public is viewing them more broadly, but first a word from this weak spots this week Pakistan's brought you Bible bombers. How often do you think about your socks? If the answer is not much? Well, that's probably healthy, but also bombers is here to change the way that you think about your socks. Forever. Bombers are the most comfortable socks in the history of feet, which I think you'll know is all

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show during in on what trump sad he swore he criticised the NFL. The players told the owners how they should kind of run their teams. What were his motivations for saying what he said Culture war, Tactical he's he editions Warner held beliefs. Listen president is like it. The guy who watches lotta tv yeah. Necessarily want to like ascribe, I mean I think he deals with my kind of Africa. Reaffirmation right. You know he clearly loves doing these big rallies rights would have a rally for Luther strange which itself low, but strange has other strange, so with a strange, is not a very promptly and politician really but at around rallying Huntsville. I think Alabama and talks about did not use cabinet hey my doubts about the ineffectual and expel. These guys aren't tough enough and other games being ruined and then talks about

these guys should be fired if their protesting the anthem and gets, a fairly raucous response from being a very red, Eat crowd in Alabama would be the crowd that would respond positively to that end. Many things. He doesn't like kind of let go of Issue and before long he see some, headline on on Fox and friends. I think about Steph, curry and the golden state warriors at exactly like. I said I don't think I want to go from friend, as he's has tanning. Therefore, he's disinvited right, but he just as someone who does not like go of things. Many authors love grid. With the NFL he's a guy who would have loved to and then I fell franchise, these rayless, if a french eyes and ran it poorly. So this guy, you know he feels like he's left out of this club of NFL owners right. So he's angry about that Obviously, there are some patterns where it seems like when he sees stock lack people who are outspoken and or successful. He doesn't like that. So

you know a kind of hits like three or four of his triggers in sight? So there is a deep strategy there. I think he knows that it's it's a good dog whistle. I think this goes back to campaign stuff. You know it. It's it's pretty, that's what he's doing. I mean it, not the first of which to restate these base, which is older and wider, and things pre obvious. I mean you know this is he's been go he's gone after. The profile and make us a debate as like is this is trumpet just like in a clever wait, a bit people or these feelings that he has himself both well. By You know whenever you have multiple objectives, that a couple same thing. Then he knows this. Is it cut like sports and the flag.

This is gonna, get arise out of every one. It's gonna be a good and by the way, it's distracting from some pretty bad stuff going on a porter Rico, which it's pretty interesting, he hasn't been talking about that island Federico area in order to North Korea. This health care there's a lot of news this week. You know, I think Annabelle debate among people on five thirty about how biggest He is a relative to everything else but they had lost that debate, because where you know talking about it I fell in a lot of NFL related, so he's coming all week, I will talk about we're, gonna run your natural, get a game theory expert on, but you're, not part of it is like. You know, I'm saying well, the presence opinions are. The NFL are less important than then printing barbs with North Korea. With escalating very seriously because like well, you know it's about a lot more than that fell like that's true but like camp is all low skilled at touching on cultural, too.

Tones and bringing in he's a good like that safer moment? This is partly for him to troll people, he's a good parole because he knows what she's, will push people's buttons Therefore, if you believe, the media, including five thirty eight- is doing a poor job. By not focusing more on North Korea and Puerto Rico, then you know then effective at like kind of ringing. The bell that we and the media will will follow right and so this is one example of sports and the intersection patriotism, race, sports and culture and a colleague in particular. You know it is fascinating, so we must limit the less time president called for a boycott of an american industry based on American, a large american business for a pro business president. That's an astounding move, I think it is something you could argue. It still less important than the

even if their war, I'm not I'm, not arguing that more pragmatic. Being I'm not arguments more important, I'm just saying like it is whatever it's like. We just. We always fall into the stuff of like heat. Its we follow our noses, but it is touching on a thing. Race in America, which is very important, and you know cabinet was already doing this. It's a thing it's been going on for a while, and I think it comes on the heels of him taking to task other black public figures. I would just again point out, but I dont know if Donald Trump woke up on Friday morning and said I am going to do x y and see if this Alabama rally think Donald Trump has these viewpoint This was one of Donald from longest speeches. He was going in Alabama to campaign for a candidate and strange was trailing in the polls, some Are you who I have our ten points?

have argued, is not the candidate that Donald Trump should have endorsed, based upon the ideological bent on the issues of the two candidates involved, not race, looters strange being the incumbent, appoint the United States Senator Roy more the Ex Alabama Supreme Court Justice, who is considerably more of an outsider, matches trump better and he probably was looking for a way to connect with the crowd and what better way to do that then, to bring up a cultural touch point and it seems to have worked because the people were rowdy when he was talking about Trump seem to be into it and he did touch off a discussion, although weirdly more seems, if any to have expanded his lead again, a little bit had gotten tighter and as back up to ten or twelve plan somebody's recently I mean he did say out the rally that it was ok. If some people wanted to vote for more get, even though I think I might have made a huge mistake, it somewhere connection because, like you're getting trip to think people, think cultural more and more, is the culture workaday and so

near a question of whether trimmed will get his candidate to an alibi, Tomorrow, you know, might not have been helpful. Niven harmful locus will see, but in terms of how Donald Trump comments are received, we talked about how owners the Players Union, which is not a reliably liberal bunch, have spoken out against trumps com, But in the past me, you said that when we talk about Charlottesville, the downturn didn't see his approval rating actually fall, because divided Americans along lines that were already majority and that he, you know, was already in that some forty percent approval rating area anyway? Do you see this as similar or has kind of tat? during the NFL and even getting owners and the union to respond. If you'd, targeting national anthem protests where we should say, protests about police by that are carried out during the anthem. If you wanna be correct here right that issue, deaf

It has had a very traditional blue red divide and where people fall on calling happening, for instance, if you about the NFL as an institution. That's weird has definite like the internet, felt kind of like the meeting gravity, was kind of centre right. It's like a centre right institution that people associate with It is a kind of big business. It's caution, corporate and can cut you know and, as you know, I mean for the NFL jeez you're, getting a little bit from from. Besides now are you have liberals who are concerned about concussions or the racial politics of the On the one hand, you know it's not unusual reference amounts or sports fans. Liberal say you know, I love hockey basketball base. All Billina fella. You know on either hand now His hike base, They telling his voters don't watch the NFL, don't go

aims, as is not a great Wash NASCAR, much NASCAR, how the public views this I mean. Do you think that I will cite the NFL criticism crosses that threshold into something that can upset more people if he is let's, where there's framing of its important right? It is criticising column, copper. Nick then you can have a traditional blue red divide. If he's criticized the NFL as an inch, you, you know, I mean the NFL says no secret right, but, like it's dead, popular in in the MID west and big stretches of the country where trumpeted really well, and so. Let's do from the NBA, where its concentrated in urban the diverse metro areas and so but also running a little bit of an upswing popularity rating or is up to thirty nine and forty percent approval. He had been at thirty seven percent a month or so ago. That's a meaningful enough change. We can say in between his response to the Harvey and

between I guessed or not being that many bombshells from like Bob Mahler and between him being like a little bit. Com but now beginning in this type of new cycle, where you have cultural controversy on top of belligerence with North Korea on top of another healthcare debate. You know these are more like the cycles in which any also have cancel mishandling of the crisis in Puerto Rico and make it can become a bigger story. Maybe so they seem more life, a new cycles where, where Trump drift downward a bit- and I oh it's, really dangerous- to predict disapproval, ridding, I suppose, via to predict and are going through. I don't have now. I think it would take the under on what that is done in a look. That's what I think, people just democratic Republican like let's say, sent centre right, republican or something I think people just annoyed. This is this is invaded Sunday. You know people come on. Just one

Watch football, I think that this is a question. I will say that some of the preliminary ratings are our interesting in terms of whether it does seem that on a number of networks, the ratings word down on Fox and for the embassy game. The weak, though that last year they had the cowboys, but it wasn't down and CBS and more than that, what was injured Me was that the pre game ratings are where they were. Having all these discussions, the ranger actually weigh up. So I think that we might be getting people to talk about football who don't normally talk about about which I think has come. I'm talking of throwing out I've taken a living in a long since childhood stance against going to football games are I think we're gonna wrap this conversation up here and move on to the Senate just briefly, so the conventional wisdom is that Democrats could have a hard time cling onto their currencies in the Senate, let alone winning a majority in two thousand a team, but because we

love conventional wisdom here at five thirty eight. We have decided to unpack some of the ways that that wisdom could fall up Basically, the question is: do Democrats really have no chance of winning the Senate and clear? This is something that you looked into some of the wild cards that could shift that dynamic. But before we get to that me, and I know we don't like giving casual predictions that are not rooted in models anymore, but for a baseline. How reasonable is to think that the Senate will remain in republican control after two thousand eighteen, very reasonable yeah look come in this kind of harden called math, where, where you have to republican senators up in preparation its Arizona ended, ETA and then That's it. The rest of the problems that are up are in really read. States Democrats need to flip three seats, receipts and not lose any of their own, which is a huge huge costs,

to even though incumbents from the out party as you'd call. It now Democrats have a pretty good track record if they do that, somehow, which is really running a needle, they just Dont have more than two conventionally good opportunities again doesn't mean crazy. Things can happen in a really big. Really big Wave Texas would be the one riper. Basically you have to Creative shall we say defined, scenario. Again, that's what I did and if we don't really creative ways for so long shot to occur, yeah. So, basically my editor said Democrats are trying to raise money off of telling their donors that there is a chance that they could win back the Senate, and we decided to take that proposition and run with it, including ways that they could win. The Democrats could win the Senate, but also ways at it could get a whole lot worse for them. So we took a look at six races and the two that could make things worse.

For Democrats would be if they lose New Jersey and California Girly New Jersey sitting Senator is on trial for bribery and corruption, which is no boy no faith at all about it and, as has got to learn, does have some problems, so even if he doesn't get convicted, his approval ratings are not looking very good. If I think fifty percent of people in a pool said that they thought it was time for some new southern it couldn't, it could be disturbed destabilizing political environment in New Jersey and then, if you look a California Diane finds teens lot for constituents. I haven't been very happy with her lately. She's, not as progressive as may be a lot of California is based is in she supported Trump, more often than any other Democrat, although not a lot, but we kind of theorized wildly there's little risk that she's gonna get beaten in a primary, but

She if there were a sort of a very fractured primary field, even though I think they do a jungle. Primary means. How do you know who knows in very if you had to look ends and fourteen Democrats pulling about it, you can have the topic publicans finish with the highest who plurality, he's an then, and it happened. You have it, and like every now, and then that's happened in house races in California, it's private like a one in fifteen or twenty shot, or something goes there. Just are not that many Republicans in California, maybe see Diane Fine signed getting that many primary challengers, Europe's. Maybe I mean, as there are a lot of Democrats in California and Senate. See from California is a powerful thing that can be a platform for all types of things, and so and so yeah I mean you can imagine her getting a challenge, but I think the more interesting stuff actually flip this dynamic either Republicans right. So then we took a look at four races. Where things

good turn, blue red seats, that could turn blue, so one of them is John Mccain's. Arizona Senate see he's obviously ill and if you were to resign or to pass away Doug do see the governor of Arizona would name a replacement and that person would run in a special action and twenty eighteen think a lot of maybe listeners to this podcast will know that Arizona is currently having some some attention paid to it because of Jeff Flake and his sort of viewed with Trump, and he is up for reelection and twenty eighteen and he's primary challenged by a very far right kind of trompe in candidate and Kelly Ward. I worry about that race. Last weekend, we kind of theorize that if there are another election in Arizona, twenty eighteen Mccain seat that could face similar dynamics,

ere, you know, say the sitting senator gets primary challenge that primary challenger wins, but then there are bad general election candidate and lead Democrat wins the general election Jeff Flakes likely democratic challenger Pearson Cinema is a pretty moderate Democrat who's gonna be a pretty tough general action challenger like we look this up her but the substance of the other week she's the most moderate Democrat it allows a mortar shady w not illegal was, I think, she'd await our meeting with tromp a couple weeks ago with another group of the law makers. If she certainly variant you very interesting, ampler yeah, I mean if this happened, Then you do have an interesting dilemma, aware Where did the strongest democratic and looking candidates concentrate? Would you rather have an open seat? it's easier or harder than Jeff like see, isn't incumbent, but strongly embattled incumbent who re easily could lose a GEO primary to write. And so who knows? Maybe it's actually easier to take.

Flickr word then, and open seat at this is actually I was watching election. I coverage from nineteen. Seventy eight, the other we unreasoning as one does, and that was actually something that faced people there was view, go for the open sea or do you go for the the open special sitting? You go for the other seed and when access essentially happened was how will have fallen, whose was locked wanna be a long time since How about actually ended up basically running on a post one, something like ninety four percent of a year and areas on his interesting, because you know a lot was made of Nevada Clinton, one. It's they elected democratic, Senator to Nevada, Nevadas, had a lot of political pull because of Harry read. A lot of attention has paid, has been paid to it and also demographically. It's true

being in favour of Democrats. Arizona has similar demographics, but it's a heavily red stay and has a sort of tradition of republican politics bury Goldwater, John Mccain. It's got this right of centre of gravity, so I think also just the idea that Arizona is up for play is really interesting to a lot of people now the talks republican establishment people in that state no way we're no way we're not we're not Nevada, like it's different, we're gonna, Republicans, gonna fight hard to keep their seat so there is in general, I think, is a really really interesting state to be watching Ex fourteen months for sure. I think what the gold star standard for classically republican states that Democrats aspire to Sunday. Flip was taxes. Writing you advocate taxes, yes

created TED grids. So this is one that I think might be treated this. It will raise the ire of Texans on staff because they get so irritated by people. Writing the tripe political headline. Could taxes turn blew the enters? Probably not, but also of people don't like TED Crew who is up for real action, and so you know we kind of theorize that may be there are some moderate Republicans who aren't happy with Trump happy with crews who are looking to fact beta or Rourke, whose representative from Texas is running against crews. You know I, the very early pull that shows them tight with two with thirty percent of the vote, each obviously there's a lot of undecided at super super early, but hey TED crews, most hated man and republican politics could Lucy. I mean Texas is one of those places that actually shifted became more blower

is very bad for Democrats, but like or else there is, the country a mean. Texas was basically as purple as Ohio, and I were last year which Swain big time. The direction and the fact of the matter is that, particularly in the Senate, where it's two votes for every seat, although obviously the more broadly an electoral college that no longer like Odylic dream scenario. One day we can but Texas and play its like one day. We might have to put Texas in play to avoid being really challenge. As far as the math for Congress on the electoral college take crews, is a little bit like Jeff Flacon that he's gonna be squeezed from both sides. I know I mean to me: if like a race where you can have an US off like thing where the Democrat and not Texas, actually there live districts interests that look a lot like that Nicaragua district. And arms, especially so, could be the kind of thing we're like there's a lot of

I've been about it and Democrats windup losing by five points, but it's not like. It's not crazy, too that if you have an environment, that ten points democratic, which is what some of the generic ballot polls show, that's a wave type environment. And you have me vulnerable republican caddy, it's not crazy to think that that could be a flip earliest employ sunbelt interesting. Yet I think it is, and I think that that the thing that makes the race potentially interesting, really as that TED crews being on the ballot law, he certainly not the most unpopular United States. Senator some of the positive been done in that state do indicate that is at least a little bit. Honourable, and just the other two just very quickly. Tennessee sitting, Senator Bob Corker has been you know, attacked by tramp tramp, says, is kind of threatened to primary him. That scenario is

wait, you know he's primary and then that primary challengers weaken the general election. The Democrats can win Tennessee and then Alabama era. And because tomorrow night, you know we theorize, if more Roy, more, who has a long history of saying, controversial things, including a very recent racist remark. If there were some sort of game changer in the general election, where he something you know, he said something or something came out from his past, where it was, you know to beyond the pale for voters, and you know that could take his candidacy, but that's a pretty unlikely right on what I would say at least regard to that race, which, for I could just take a quick second. We have obviously that run off occurring tomorrow, night Roy, more challenging, looked a strange who was appointed the steep by Robert Bet laid the disgraced former governor from the state of Alabama. Most poles, as we visited scandal, was a good scanner most the Poles,

you have to give their Nathaniel nigh were discussing earlier, have more up by about ten percentage points on average, and then you go in the general election in that state. Alabama is a state that has an elected a democratic, United States Senate since ninety two, but this is also a state in which Donald Donald approval rating is significantly lower than his his share was sixty two percent percent prop, perhaps as much as ten points below that right now, which could give a potential you can you know you can draw the figures that you want Doug Jones is the democratic candidate who is run. That raises an next: U S attorney prosecuted many civil rights are bombing cases and the one general election pull that was out. Didn't fact show that more was up, but only by four and keep a mine and a tooth traveller. Wasn't a federal race when he was running for chief of the Alabama Supreme Court, He only one that race by less than five point

male of Emma, though alibi, if it or even like Mississippi or allow me a lab ammo suffered in Alabama right and that's why? I think that on this, while cardiac it's about it, let me have allowed cards hurries, infirmity of homer workers, government the possibility of a party switch because, as happened with Jim Jefferson, after the two thousand election to give democratic control. The Senate is that right, Mary after the two thousand election, I believe it was in May of two thousand one. There were discussions about whether it be Mccain or Jefferson ended up being Jim Jeffrey. The long time republican senator from me Vermont, and you have Ireland Spectre, who switch to get impressive, filibustered proof, supposedly majority into doesn't nine. So there's quite a lot of precedent for this people speculate o could Collins, Irma, Caskey switch parties now, and I think

not too likely have a ton of leverage right now right, but suppose it is fifty fifty and you're Susan Collins, though she might write for governor, which is another complicated, wild wildcard but say she stays in the Senate and fifty fifty, let's say Democrats when the house right, you have but a power right there. If your Susan Collins, she kind of really as bisect where are the median democratic, meaning Republican is right now, so, if Republicans get while apt, She could say I am now Susan Collins, India, have made who caucus is like my colleague and it came with the Democrats, so that is not totally off the table so just to wrap this up. Historically, what kind of environment or event on the campaign happen to turn a deep red or deep blue state the other way?

talk about legitimate rape. If you will recall that was win Clare Mechanical one Missouri, because her upon it tat again said that what did he say? A woman's body had ways of shutting that thing down so for anyway, it was ridiculous comment. The Republicans had a huge huge problem that year with just people, stepping up their candidate stepping in bad territory and clear mechanical on that state by the way she's a pre election and misery is gonna. Look pretty. I mean that if the math of it isn't that hard to do necessarily right, we're like you, start out and look at the generic bowels as they were in a democratic ten environment, which is a little bit Barrack Democrats, the current policy of an eye, much better. It's like a plus eight or something right now, right, we'll take it up. Two plus ten you look at the Parson Lena, the state or districts of Texas is like the way we calculate what like a minus, eighteen or whatever, then you look at the Harry is even now likeness. Math is grimacing now

but the boy it's more formulaic. Then then you would think we kind of add up. The state versus the lean of the country. Yours, election, verses, weather isn't incumbent and incumbent usually has an advantage, although occasionally a really poor incumbent, embattled incumbent, like flake, maybe take risen that category can be at a disadvantage and in a way of election. That incumbent advantage is often not very much for the President's party and say you do the math, then it would come out taxes, as leaning too, We republican, but a long way from Shore Republican right yeah that that that that's right, especially you know, based off of the two thousand and sixteen vote, and this is the one thing that sometimes we don't realize. Senate seats is almost leading signals. You know go back to two thousand six. A George alum was the incumbent republican senator from the State of Virginia. That was at that point at least a light red state on the presidential level, and then all of a sudden

makes his Morocco com and Jim Web was in a position to take advantage of let's Vicki Bator before coffee there was man was MECCA An Jim web ends up winning by less than a point and then Virginia shifted into the purple column, and I think that there is some argument now that it's purplish light blue so time. Senate races can be weird in that way, and you shouldn't be surprised if there's something you didn't necessarily anticipate and a poor candidate could help accelerate that trend. Ok, let's leave her with Morocco. That's a rap Nate thanks a lot. Thank you, thus Clare. Thank you scaling and herring thanks a bunch my Colombia lions to and our baby, let's go next week, Princeton you're, going down before we good by a heads up that we are actually releasing a special surprise. Podcast later this wing I've been working

an audio documentary serious about gerrymandering, which is part of a larger five. Thirty eight project. That series is going to publish in this field at the end of November, but one of the stories we cat- is about the partisan gerrymandering case being heard at the Supreme Court next week we wanted to. Let you hear that podcast, while, while the cases being considered so look for them your feed later this week, so that its very good the element very hard on it. I believe I actually have some cameos. Maybe you haven't. We have only promoting, otherwise we will have to listen to see whether you got caught Dame My name is Galen Druke. Our politics, editor is Michael Cohen. Showers in the control room and are in turn is Kate Box Europa. You can get in touch I e mailing us at podcast set five thirty dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with questions or comments if your family,

Leave us a rating or review in the Apple pie cast store when you leave a rating. Folks are rankings which helps others discover the show as well, or you can just tell someone thanks for listening and we will see soon.