I got something for my wife very special Valentine's day, which is a big big, happy Valentine's day to my beautiful, lovely wife, on nationally. Listen to the water asked Could I suffer more make clearly gale. I could look like Serbs. we have not put that as the cold open. I wouldn't really have a choice anymore, happy Valentine's day. Likewise, to make us wife, Sarah Cayley, the whole package, We should have specific either my compatriots. Why? No one to three perfect guys perfect hello and welcome to the five three politics pie past I'm doing can we're prices have risen, seven and a half percent. Since last year, according to new data out last week, it's the highest rate of inflation

forty years and perhaps related? We performance on the economy is about twenty points. Underwater amongst Americans, Americans also report. The cost of living as their biggest Can I make concern. Republicans and Democrats are pointing at different culprits for hyperinflation, and today we're gonna try to tease out food is right. We also have to discuss why public are describing the January sixth attack on the capital as legitimate political discourse. Last week, a conflict, God, within the Republican Party over the Republican National Committee's decision to censure representatives, this Cheney and Adam cringing, or for their participation in the house. Generally sixth committee while describing the events as legitimate political discourse, the events of January six. That is a number of we can send. It has rejected the Aren t move while others said it reflects the will of the voters. So here of meat to discuss at all our politics andreasen for and whole Sarah Hagen, we shall also with US managing Editor Mexico in Jamaica.

Hello, everybody and politics and tech reportedly Rogers he gave me a happy valentines happy Valentine's day. As you can tell, we have a somewhat serious show today, but I did not forget that it is Valentine's day, so happy Valentine day to all of you and of listeners we are going to take. Things are This relatively Syria shout with a bit of a game to start off on a lighter note, because it is Valentine's day we're gonna play, guess what Americans think and the topic is. so I'm gonna name a love or relationship related issue that Americans were asked about in a pool and you are going to have to guess how they responded just to get a sense to pull the crowd. Do we feel like there any experts on love amongst us this morning, whose foolish enough to answer that question in the affirmative? I don't think, I'm an expert. I think I'm an optimist which may not serve me while I do not will see an interest anyway. To answer the question,

I mean, I think, I'm an optimist to Kelly. That's her sweet! I love okay. Well, let's see how optimistic EU remain after we talk about some of the polling responses. Denmark so first off. We have a bit of a m a politics related one. So, according to a twenty Twenty Europe survey, what percentage of Americans said that if they were single and dating, they would be willing to date, someone who has the opposite political views from that start things off with the optimist cayley. What do you think? I mean I'm not optimistic about the political divide in America, thirty two or carry?

I was going to say like ten percent, because there are so many different studies that show that people do not want to be with some one of the other political parties, but this just as different views. So twenty percent going of twenty micro lot come back to my answer in a second but twenty six percent fires so pessimistic its forty four percent of Americans who made their willing to date, someone who has opposite political views as that still a minor and to break it out? Forty eight percent of Republicans said they would, and forty percent of Democrats said they would, I think, about half of those people are full of it. To be honest with you, did you listen to last week's Thursday pie cast about how the media over hypes the pot listen divide and that most people don't actually turn that much. They don't even care above all, tax at all

there's a difference between caring about politics and public events and caring about your partner, this, I would submit, is caring about your partner. and how they see the world. This is different than the lake. Would you live next door? There's somebody with different exactly like this is what you sleep in the same, but also most people don't rink their political party or partisanship very highly as like part of very density in terms of how they see themselves. That is the cakes, whatever fair enough it still forty four percent of Americans. According to this, This is less than half, although the people who said no we're thirty nine percent, so there was majority there were a bunch of people who said they want sure so was yes, the plurality? Yes, yes was the plurality go, but really, though, our gases on this and the fact that we view a minority but plurality. Being willing to say yes to this question is a pretty pessimistic commentary,

on the state of our country. Right, fair. I forgot who got that one, because I don't remember what your responses were somewhat at thirty, something procure a raid. Nice and thirty. Two zero killing such clauses. Ok, this one is kind of fun, maybe pessimistic. What percentage of Americans say they have been ghosting, which is to say when someone and a casual dating situation by suddenly not responding to calls or messages with no explanation might, let's start with you How is the answer here? Not a hundred per cent. I feel like might be something that is happening in in the pulling where how many people know that term go stood, did they define the term they defined it, as I do find it in the crowd Ok, I'm gonna say fifty three percent interested Sarah seventy seven

carry. I was thinking in the seventies too. I think it's gotta be quite the only reason I'm not pushing. are you a hundred is unthinking, like maybe older generations, where this baby was as much. Inga people have more etiquette back then I don't know some easy to get someone through taxes dating apps. First, though, someone back in the day, you had just move out of town Again, seven thousand four hundred and twenty nine. Then you are not optimists at all. Oh that's shocking. his generational did they give age cross taps, I'm sure they did. This is pure This wasn't some just kind of like casual pulling situation. I'm sure that there are differences across age groups, but for all adults it is twenty nine percent. So my god, you got that wait. Maybe this issue personal, but have any of you open, goes to or the go stir

hundred percent I have been girl stood almost certainly also goes. Did someone guy? It's pretty the game. I think that ghosting polite. Sometimes it's like an irish goodbye would rather not receive a message being like. I really don't like you. These are the reasons why and just pay something something something you never get a response back, it's for like a second They were thirty anyway and you're, like a guy, we're just gonna move on with things like we're going to explain. Neither of us are just into each other. That seems there. Those are not the only two options like a long list of everything the person doesn't like about you or guns you can just say a polite hey. I don't think so. work out best of luck, things even that if it can be a kind of Everyone understands what it means to not respond to follow up on a second or third day, a great link, if you like, hey, are you free for drinks? This week after you ve got on the first day

and the person doesn't respond. There's no message is that we all know what we all understand, what happened, and it might be even nice. than ever having to hear like hailing thing. We kicked off global. Why, whatever see heartily, as a great cause. Sure everybody knows what that means, but dont means that before you, get that message. You have first couple hours while they might just not have seen it next few hours, he start to get a little anxious. What does this mean? and then eventually you get the message. But when is that, eventually it's it's different for different people, so I think it's undue stress unnecessary, stressed be polite, send the message just saying: hey, I'm going elsewhere, you're my car, I think ultimately you're right, I don't want to be the one to send in ghosting on this podcast. For the sake of my inbox, this might be selected memory, but I don't think I've ever ghosted anybody.

a, maybe I've never had the opportunity of ghost. I don't think I've ever goes. Did anybody? It's not polite its mean I dont know. I think it's a little more complicated than I don't think it's a straight up mean the I might I would rather be posted and maybe that's crazy in some situations, it's cool. Or not by someone who I've gone on a handful of dates where it's like that is psychotic, five years? Is that I would say if you ve gone on like two and a half days or more, it requires an explanation. What does a half day? it just like an average of someone? If someone goes you and of dinner gaily, that's half a day only can I haven't been single a very long time, so I sometimes feel like an old person in this conversation

I started dating my husband before dating elsewhere things so woefully unprepared for that question. Carry I'm happy for you. Ve never had to experience the wide world of doing, especially on your next question, sir we're starting with you. What percentage of Americans have experienced heartbreak, at least both say to a poster they ve experienced heartbreak. Eighty percent carry sixty eight sixty eight Mighta. Eighty one percent. Sarah, you got it. Ok, it is seventy nine percent of American allow. Ok, they have been heartbroken, so just people were pretty honest in this one. This is a! U go. Poor may also pulled Brits about whether they have ever

their heartbroken. Do you think that more or fewer Brits sailor they ve had our heartbroken than americans fewer? I want to say fewer more. It's your violet get significant club, it's twenty points, lower sixty one percent British people also have our heartbroken. British people are notorious for being like animals, in our hands that steward look at a stiff upper lip yeah, yeah, ok, so that means that each one of you have a point. Aren't you a typewriter and I'm going to move on to our serious topics for the day, so we should do a story about the twenty one percent of Americans who have never had the heart broken. That's interesting, who are those I feeling mainly those who just people has never been in love or met the love of their life. It could be young people out of the gate. Yeah, that's the optimistic. I don't want to hear.

Clearly, I think you were gonna want these people now I didn't mean that doesn't show for our final question. I wonder Empress Joanna you think about, like the percentage of Americans, were interested in or open to an open relationship presented of Americans who say they ve been a part of a love triangle. The presented over merganser told opposed to that but through their partners phone who that's did Alan there's a pupil again. These are rigorous service as the Americans about real life issues. So a pupil from October, two thousand eighteen found it A majority of Americans think that it is rarely or never acceptable for someone to look through a partners found, but what percentage of Americans do you think have actually looked through their partners? Found, or at least will tell upholstered unable offender partners,

hearing, King Arthur, like definitions and all around what looking through your partners seeking, says someone who are humble, argued or partners phone operated under precise versus who would admit it. I'm gonna go like forty eight percent, forty other Sarah yeah. It's definitely over sixty, but I dont people are facing up so thirty six honesty does I agree. I agree with Kelly. Sarah lots of people turn this I'll, say forty nine percent and Sarah wins this game of guess what Americans think it is thirty four percent of partners at odds say they have done it's much higher, liar who said that Europe, so here is a question,

Do you think a more men or women who say that they have lost in a partner when I feel like? I don't want to answer this question I feel like women. I dont know why. Ok, it is women by a lot so makes percent of women say that they have done so only twenty five percent of men say they have done so. This is like a good use of pulling our values of. Why do you think that's a real deferential? Do you think, there's a differential and honesty, cobalt I don't know, I don't know how to evaluate this. This is so tricky because my

intuition was that of the number. It's can be higher among women, but then I thought bulky how much of that is just popular culture and that image in so it's out it's all tied together. I don't know if that's a real number, not I think over the long run all genders. I just as likely to do this is my guess. That seems right. I wonder if they just more like openness among women. That means Mica that you don't trust the pulse. I've never done this before it's worth. I've never done this either for what it's worth it I'm pretty sure, I'm not just like line to the poster or why into the pot cost audience. I'm almost positive. I've never done this, don't worry certain cayley. We will already have analysed the linear, conspicuous as it is a real number there. I didn't want to point it out, but did not to make this a serious thing, but when you're poem people you generally

going to ask him about behaviors, more than beliefs, cuz behaviors or something it's like. We were talking about this in the poll we've discussed, conducting but they're closed, but the may be the exception to that is personal relationships that I just feel like is more susceptible to self delusion or answers and just misleading answers from the public. Then you know like what do you think about climate change welfare of it? This turned into a courteous, appalling values, appoint segment as while audience you will have to side for yourself what you believe, congratulations, Sarah on winning this round of guess what Americans think if you liked this segment, we have a whole video where we asked people out on the street in New York to guess what Americans think about love as part of a United States of America Series was fun and Q. We found some very romantic couples in Washington Square Park. Listeners can check out that video on five thirty eight Youtube channel. So

sure you subscribe to that channel. If you haven't already now that we have gotten love out of the way, let's talk about everything else, that's going on, but first today's podcast is brought you by price line right now. It feels like we're all getting less less social interaction, but suddenly last steps less time with the in laws, and while that last might not be so bad aren't. You for more with price line, you can save up to sixty percent on your favorite hotels, and you can also get exclusive deals on rental cars and flights and when you more. You can do more more walks on the beach more talking to strangers more fun in the sun and demanding for you I will with still less time with the images at Bryce line. Every trip is a big deal so when you're ready to book your next one visit price line, dot com for the best deals that will help you get more out of it again. That's price mine, DOT, TK,

A Republican National Committee resolution censuring Representatives List Cheney and Adam Kindling or for participating in the house. Generally, six investigation accuse those representatives of quote the persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse. Various we're Hoboken senators have criticized the hour and see illusion and send it minority leader Mcconnell reiterated that January sex was a violent insurrection. In response. Aren't spokeswoman Daniel Varas said outside the DC bubble. Our grass roots are very supportive of the decision to hold Cheney and kindling are accountable and Senator John Holly told reporters, listen whatever you think about the aren't you vote. It reflects the view of most republican voters, what's actually talk about? What's going on beneath the surface of this conflict and whether or not the orange and Jolly are right about republican voters, in fact, let's start their Sarah. Take us up our Holly and the hour right that this resolution

cry being the events of January sex as legitimate political discourse and the House investigation of persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political. Does. Is that how about converters feel yes and no it's? Yes in the sense that grass root groups have moved to penalize Republicans like Cheney and kissing her at the local level. This was something that Perry Bacon. Now the Washington Post had written for five, thirty, eight in like February or March of twenty twenty one. You saw that Republicans who had voted to Peach Trump were being censured by both like local and state committees, reporting about the back channels that were happening in light of drafting this resolution shows to that Daniels had to do a lot in terms of kind of tampering down with the resolution first said, which was that Mccarthy should evict both kinsman current Cheney from the party, and they got to this legitimate course is kind of a compromise, so I do think that there

the current within the Republican Party that is upset by this is in line with this view, but the no component of this is I'm not sure how important this is to voters and how representative this is of Republicans writ large there's a sizeable portion of the party. I think that does could be with censures of this nature and with the idea that January six was legitimate political discourse

this resolution was for those Republicans. So a cover things. One is scarce right. It's only true, there's a portion of the Republican Party that doesn't want off by January Sex and supports efforts to combat republican politicians who do want to investigate and talk about general sex. That said, there are big portions of the party who have more reality based views on this. You know Washington, Post pole frog. I think it was. This sum Twenty twenty one asked people whether the protesters who entered the? U S, capital were mostly peaceful, mostly violent or equally peaceful and violent, and, among Republicans, twenty six percent said mostly violent. Thirty seven percent said equally, both so peaceful and violent and thirty six percent

said, most of peaceful. So that's a majority who are saying there was at least some violence There is another earlier and twenty twenty one. I see an ample asked whether the Republican Party should or should not penalize elected officials who have expressed opposition to Donald Trump and only twenty percent said, should seventy six percent said, should not so even today I feel like there are members of the republican Party. Voters were large, who are not on board with this kind of

Her. Honestly, though, I think all that sort of misses the point. I think that this legitimate political discourse- language, I'm not even sure Republicans- were referring to the violent storms. He was referring to the violence when they wrote it. I think that language in that statement is part of a bigger effort by Republicans, including Mcconnell, by the way to basically just like whitewash the insurrection out of our collective memories and out of the EU s political history the ideas to just like pretend that day was just a peaceful protest, and so in that sense, when someone like Holly says well, whatever you think this

You is representative of the views of the Republican Party. It's like well yeah, because you have now spent, however much time trying to convince people and pretending that their what there wasn't really violence. Another where're. You said that Mitch Mcconnell is included in the group of people who are trying to whitewash it. He said last week he called it a violent insurrection. Last weekend he's been supporting, was Cheney you'd around for that matter, commissioner, as well, basically in participating in this investigation sure, but the truth is Mcconnell with love to never talk about you anywhere six degrees. I think that's the tension foundered. We absolutely was not supportive of the committee being formed to begin he stood by Cheney and tried to supporter participation on it, but was not in favour of the committee even being form, and I think what's being captured here is a couple different groups. There are groups that are genuinely believe.

that sixth was six was not as bad as media portrays media portrays it or who think there's a lot of conspiracy theories. Orangery six as well may think someone that polling picking up like Was it violent or not? It reminds me when we pull Americans on their views about how democracy is in this country, and both Democrats and Republicans are concerned, but for different reasons, and so there is a lot and Republicans who believed that there were some kind of conspiracy around Jerry Six, that there were instigators either from Anti far from the FBI. Those were the real violent actors and there was actual. You know, patriots who were produced what kind of egg dawn, but wouldn't have done that? Otherwise, I'm we're trying to engage in quoth, legitimate political discourse of theirs that aspect of it there's also people who, regardless of how they feel about you. Re six just really feel sorted betrayed by Cheney for participating, in the commission and for voting to impeach Trump they feel like. Regardless of what happened like, we should be

sticking together as a party a moving away from this kind of not talking Anderson. the right, rather than continuing to join in with the Democrats in investigating it and looking at it further so there I think it capturing a lot of legitimate sentiment within the Republican Party. I think and knows exactly what they're doing and those who didn't really like it might be willing to kind of live with that for the good. party. Have they know that they need that trumpeting base in order to succeed. So they're never gonna completely part of that. It's interesting that, given the large majority of Republicans who do just want to move, on four January six than they say, hey we're talking about it too much. I dont think that the committee's outcome here is going to be fair. Why either see decided to double down on, can singer and Chinese, for this does kind of strike. is an odd move, particularly given, like the mid terms, are coming up how much voters actually really care about this

I think what kind of felt mismatched about this is and know what Senate Republicans for the most part have been the one speed out against. You haven't seen house Republicans condemning this, which is telling, in the sense that you know, Senate Republicans, are the ones who have to put together, statewide coalition House district doesn't so they can afford to be a bit more extreme and some of their views. Basically, one of the main criticisms here is that this is bad. Politics, like the orange, see its bringing this up as a topic themselves. I think that that is my object I think that its bad politics and is missing a lot of sentences from republican voters to clearly point bad politics, for whom it might be by politics for a lot of GEO. P comments running for the Senate, who s areas that have to put together a coalition that can when state wide, is it bad politics for the head of the hour and see who basically just ass tat trump support

Probably not. I think it's good politics for her and it speaks to this broader split within the party, basically between Trump and the die hards and Mcconnell, and the still die hards, but a little more assertive like electoral, a focused wing of the Republican Party, where Trump constantly brings up two thousand and twenty and fraud and January sixth and he's going to pardon people and and all that kind of stuff, and I think for a Mcconnell Mcconnell's perfectly willing not to support a January sixth bipartisan Select committee or whatever he's perfectly willing to you know what, since you try to brush that day under the rug, but he doesn't want to talk about it. He wants the rug and he wants to talk about Biden and inflation and and whatever else. So I think that is a broader split within the duty. That is the thinking that there's a coalition republican voters who would punish theirs

senator senators for our and see during this century- I just don't. I feel it is maybe some people for whom it left a poor taste in the mouth of there's not going to be any real consequences and had they skipped this, there could potentially be consequences from the other wing of the party who feel very strongly about this. I think that very clearly- and I think this is maybe Sancho, but the orange juice political calculus on this might be right and Mcconnell might be wrong. I mean, I think, the hour men from the other side against the aren't resolution is that any moment any day, you're talking about January sixth year sort of fighting the political argument on weak territory for Republicans laudable laws, including many we just mention, show people aren't

favour a violent insurrections, including lots Republicans as opposed to you, should be spending every day. You know attacking Biden, talking about inflation, just talking about other staff. That argument that makes sense. As far as it goes, where it might fall. Apart, though, is we actually haven't seen all that much evidence that voters are willing to punish Republicans, which is to say the vote against them for anti small de democratic behaviour, including the violent interaction it just doesn't seem to be at the top of their priority list. Voters party list, so in that sense, maybe the maybe there Aren T political calculus- is right because its it definitely is at the top of the rope. book and bases priority list in some sense, is it honestly? That's what I struggle with in this is, if a majority of Republicans want to move on from January Sex,

This are in sea statement, then puts the news cycle back on that it shows Inter party fighting, and I just don't know that is what animates voters in terms of why they want to turn out for the mid term elections. I mean January six play a huge role in the Virginia gubernatorial. an ordinary jerseys and Republicans had really strong turnouts in both of those elections. One virginia I don't know yet. I have to think It's a minute part of the Republican Party. That's thinking about with China and Adam can on a regular basis to even want to say something about them, and in that case like how much power do they actually have liked, it's always frame does like oh, the base, the base of the grass roots like what, if they come for you, what are you gonna give? You know your hands are tied like in fact in the Washington Post a lot of the reporting about our Anti chair runner, Mcdaniel role in this is that basically of her hands were tied and she didn't really want the rest.

Lucian, but like how much power does this extremely small segment of people actually have? Well, that's more segmented people includes the former president of the United States, Donald Trump, so I think that actually have. Your power and I dont know if it's that small, like the people who don't wanna talk about dangerous things, might also. in favour of censure because by having a committee at all, that's continuing to talk about January sex and shine a light on it, and so it sort of paradoxically, I mean I get the argument. That by then sunshine. Your also shining light on it, but it that seems like a weaker argument to me, but look at junk in young again is held up as they like, middle road between. You know a trumpet

Canada and a Mitt Romney style, Canada, his eye trump ISM without Trump Bene, little more polished and centrist or whatever, but yanking. If I remember correctly, played footsie with the twenty when he election fraud. Conspiracy, stuff me went out of his way to walk at all, backs are eighteen, but someone on his team, or he must have thought that it wasn't politically advantageous, but maybe giving a talent and then walking back is just enough to keep the base happy. I have no idea, and then he got the Trump endorsement so bright. I think that's the may be the right way to look at it is, I think, a lot of Republicans Howard, big, that part of the party is that actively thinks you know the twenty twenty election was oh land, and we note majority Republican say they think that right but actively that's a motivating factor for them. I think a lot of republican candidates, however big they think that group is

They see that group as necessary for a winning coalition. So it's like you need them to win if you're a Republican. Basically, this return to radio broader crusher here, which is this kind of conflict between super engaged and perhaps angry grass roots and elites within the party who may sometimes have a moderating force haven't overtime right, there's a conflict in the Democratic Party right now about eliminating student that obviously the subject matter is very very different on the democratic side, but there are often these conflict between activists and lawmakers. The establishment, whatever my perception here, is that all the time of the grass roots wins on the republic inside and oftentimes they lose on the democratic side. Is that an accurate portrayal of the relationship of reviewing the grass roots and the parties? And if that is, why is that

case. That's a high pressure enter without like doing six months of researchers. What I will say is historically, the Republican Party has been organised more. More by ideology than the democratic Party. The democratic party has been much more coalition. All you have these different groups the party is united by some shared set of policies, but its very cold, not all about managing the different interests of these groups, where the Republican Party is much more homogenous demographically and in terms of reality right soap. In that way, I think it's easier to point to the Republican Party and say hey the x. Dream and of this ideology- is what's driving this pause because it has been much driving the bus as opposed to Democrats where there is not just one bus, there's like fifteen bus,

is an you no one's driving than the other than the other. I should say this is changing a little bed where the Democratic Party has become more ideological. So maybe we'll see that change, but I think that kind of what Europe describing them in a weird way, though, the grass roots is now working towards something: that's not traditional republican ideology like historically the kind of act more grass roots Christian conservative Party. The party often have failed and getting our candidate that presidential nomination, like John became, wasn't at Mitt Romney. Wasn't it George W Bush, like wasn't really even at those were relatively moderate forces within the party who went on board with the more high for christian conservative ideology, kind of like in some ways the Republican Party has become less ideological, unjust, supportive of Trump Writ large at this So I don't know, maybe the ideology explains it, but story about ideology is more complicated,

complicated and we're dealing with the two parties with different kinds of of dogma and like what is allowed a and what is not and with the state of the Republican Party right now completely at odds with Trump in a lot of scenarios not always been penalised, scenarios is like the line you can't cross and you will be punished for that. There's, a million other ideologies that voters are more willing to accept, I mean there is, borders are willing to accept him. Promoting vaccine at his rallies, even though many of them are anti backs because it still trumped so there's like room for many ideas. But there's a emphasis on kind of loyalty around around Trump. That's said, though, poles have shown that you know I was the CNN fall over the summer, but seventy six percent of Republicans dont think that those in the party of criticized trumped should be penalised and yeah you coming back to this question of just how much do republican voters really care about this, and I also know we,

it says this divide between the elite and the base the hour and sees elites they're, just different kinds, Great length are not the ones necessarily in Washington all the time, maybe they're more involved at state level still stoic elites pushing their own messaging. It could be that the elites kind of disagree to some extent on how much fiefdom is required for Trump. yeah monument sure there. She is a divide between elites in the base in terms of January sex. I jesting elites have like a different political calculus in terms of what to do about it. I've been speaking clear that there is a divide, at least among some republican senators on January sex. I dont think you ve seen bubble up in the same way in the house. I don't you see that bubble up in the same way on a lot of different state level: politics, Think you have some governors, whether that Psycho Linen Maryland or to see in Arizona even care. honestly in Georgia. It doesn't mean, though, to your point:

that Republicans, Heath Ingenuous six were wrong or out their vocally. Decrying at each day, I think again. They would rather never talk about it. I think there is more of a divide and we give credit for just to be clear. I think that rights are the divide is not between republican base that, like supports January sixth and republican elites, who are opposed to January sex. think that divide is more complicated where even a majority, the Republican bays don't really approve of January six per se, or at least the violence, but both the base republican voters and elites. Century just want to move on from January sex rather than taking it seriously, has like violent attack on our democracy. How can we prevent that from happening again? So in that sense, I just what I mean by weight is not really a divide. Honestly, even trumps messaging around, it has been more as suddenly

he's like Jane Research was a great day. Everybody had a wonderful His message has been: why are they wasting time and money investigating this when they should investigate the twenty Twond election and his incorrect claims of fraud and that elections? That's where we're? Even what he's been it s not even like Trump thinks January six was great they're, all kind of on the same page with that it's just sort of different perspectives of why to avoid talking about it how to go about doing your? They want tell a story. That's Ike.

General Sixed was a bunch of people marching peacefully and then just a couple. People did some bad stuff. That's a story. They wanna tell that's not true, but everybody on the republican side kind of agrees they either wanna tell that story are just not tell any storing them, so the story is maybe front of complicated in terms of where the fault lines are and in this conflict over the hour and see resolution before you wrap up here, I just want to sort of Gacek. Was I'm right to describe the relationship between demo Eric elites or democratic establishment, and the democratic grass roots, as should have different from the Republican Party and one in which the establishment and elites oftentimes are kind of win. When there are those Inter Party debates, a matter that is ready to your point, gale in if you look at presidential primaries, there were a lot of primaries where the code on quote more moderate Republican One, and there were

a democratic primaries where the same thing happen, but I can two thousand aid. A bomb was kind of the more progressive challenger, the Clinton bright, gentler, grassroots choice. Right, that's just I'm areas. Of course there's just one. You know. If you look at Paul see, I don't know it's very hard to compare the party. has in recent years the Republican Party has basically just been fur shrinking government and cutting acts is and their pretty aligned with the base on policy. I think, and in maybe ways that are a true on the on the democratic side. That's what I meant by like the Republican Party at these historically was moored kind of ideologically consistent anti government. Anti immigrant dislike euphemism, racially conservative right. It's like that was pretty true throughout the party and also just the american political spectrum, doesn't have it around a perfect political center. You know it pivots around eight slightly right of Center Fulcrum

So if you consider that sort of makes sense that maybe the fringe on the right would have a little more sway than the French on the left, we also talked about, though that saw the the Trump Yester most extreme components of the republic. Party are at the local level, and we know you know just in terms of state legislatures republican control more of those who, to some extent gale, and it makes sense that the republican base, but I hate that turns play such a monolithic force, and I think it really is that, but has, more power than the democratic, more progressive element, winged of that party? Surely, by like numbers like this trompe in part of the Republican Party, is present in more state legislatures? Then you would argue that, like a more precise of wing of the Democratic Party, is and so outsize influence in that sense? This is why I think the coalition

nature of the Democratic Party is really important because what's the base of the Democratic Party, People who turn out in every election, not necessarily people with the left, most views so based, on the one hand it like progressives who who turn out reliably. On the other hand, it black voters, black women in particular, who reliably turn out about democratic, so the democratic base, I think, is more fractured in terms of their interests. Then the republican base other two serious point, even arrival The base is not at all Mona what they can and is pretty buried. They re about the ideological point in any poor weather its gallop pew asking you know, Republicans Democrats. She now are you conservative, moderate, liberal Republicans, roaming. Lay conservative and mothers been growth among Democrats in terms of identifying its liberal there's still a healthy

like moderate voters. So I think that point. My guy you're making about the ideology of this too, is really important to keep in mind when you think about how these different groups, The parties really exact force like their publicans it just a little bit more in step in and sink and Democrats on that are well some contacts to think about in processing this. This conflict within the Republican Party, as we ve, seen it over the past week. Let's leave things there. Our colleague San tool is gonna, be joining us chalk about inflation, I'm going to say goodbye. You guys my guts, Terry. Thank you so much for drawing me to buy things. Everybody thinks guys and again a happy Valentine's day to my beautiful life, our eye and with that, let's talk about inflation, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy room with room. You can buy a car entirely online and have delivered straight to you. you never have to go to a dealership again, you know what it's like. You go to buy a car and you're there

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five. Three eight. On Thursday, the latest consumer price index data show that prices on all goods and services across the board have risen an average of seven and a half percent over the past year, as I mentioned at the top, that is the highest rate of inflation in forty years. Democrats and the White House have blamed Pandemic related supply chain issues and corporate greed, while Republicans point to the two trillion dollar american rescue plan. That Democrats past unilaterally asked the culprit. Needless to say, it is both a real life challenge for people were buying things and a political one. So we're gonna try to get to the bottom of this and to talk about what we know about the causes of inflation and what might happen next is

thirty. Eight editor central neck are welcome to the shop hailing thanks for having me ok, so you have done reporting on this. You ve written about it. Republicans and Democrats are telling pretty different stories about the causes of inflation are either of them right. I think you can find truth in both. What Republicans and Democrats are saying, but of course within that you can find some for some false it so democratic point in the supply chain. Issues as causing inflation are right. That supply chain is causing inflation. To some extent, however, is clearly not the only issue. as we can look at other countries and say Europe that had been also impact about supply chain, but we're not seeing as high inflation. In fact, those countries are more dependent on foreign oil oftentimes than you

status, but, on the other hand, Republicans you blame stimulus. Tax with inflation are right that the level of steamers that we ve seen in the United States is at a level that's unparalleled with other countries. So there is evidence that that may explain some point. Five percent inflation survivors integration, but it is clearly not the only thing but as you do have Cyprus and six percent inflation in other countries, or maybe it's a matter of emphasis, because one side feels that they have a better argument to make based on that, their part of the data that are focusing on to the extent that this is connected to the supply chain. Is it clear how much of it is? Can we point to particular goods that are a lot more expensive, because there is such a difficult time for curing parts, the biggest things that were affected by the supply chain, where what we call consumer durables or things that you don't have to restock way off

so think of things I cars office, equipment, home, Jim Equipment and signs of worth now. Those things are all what we call things at. The Americans have been buying less and less of time, and so you had this gigantic ship and spending patterns around the star, the pandemic, where people start buying a lot more those things and stop going out to restaurants, to bars to move a concept and to that point report last month, maybe I found that durables a cavern, twelve percent spending, but twenty six percent inflation, so that doubly accounts for a lot of it. But I thought I, of course, in one of the biggest ways in which Americans perceive of enforced is through the cost of gas, and so you can see that and in the date of that about a quarter of the inflation that we're seeing was caused by oil greases, another twenty percent, or so it was in motor vehicle. So clearly, it's not just consumer durables, it's also things that relate to driving or seeing some spikes and services recently not to alter. That's. Perhaps

were caused by labour supply issues. Another thing that democratic twenty two is basically corporate greed say that companies are raising prices because they feel they have cover too because of this narrative about inflation when they don't actually need to and are taking advantage of. The american consumer is early For that, isn't it and claim on its face. It seem sort of spurious that corporation suddenly got more created during the pandemic than before They are raising their prices above their costs, one economies that talked who said that is very difficult to do that, because for a lot of firms, no, you can't really price above your costs, but that gets to the heart of whether this is really a competitive market for some for himself. Some Democrats, like bite in Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders have said that this is all about. It is about corporate greed and it's not because of the stimulus is serious because firms are Jack after prices and their transferring the painted the Americans consumer. However, it there is a chance right that the prices spent Americans were seen to begin

with our already really high, and so, when you add, on top of that, seventy five percent inflation you see like in consumer salmon surveys and things like that. You see Americans responding even more negatively to these price increase So perhaps it's not true that corporate greed is what's causing seventy five percent inflation, but it could be the reason why we're seeing really high price to begin with, because of monopolization that's grown over the last thirty years, which is a period of historically low inflation might do. But it is also true that that could be a reason why prices were so high to begin with, and why kids, responding so poorly to really high inflation. So basically the idea that the company is right now, in this moment are raising prices needlessly and causing inflation. That way is wrong. Is I would I'm picking up on you mean you'll find some pushed back from some experts and there are particular industries in which you might see some sort of fishing behaviour by firms, but on the whole,

It does not seem, as if firms have suddenly start increasing their prices. That would explain seven percent inflation. Alright, let's talk about the big elephant in the room which is government spending, so Republicans, maybe pointing specifically the american rescue plan, because it was past unilaterally by Democrats but Democrats and Republicans jointly past about three trillion dollars in stimulus before that, and then, of course, the american Rescue plan added another two trillion too, that these stimulus programmes included cash payments to Americans, the Paycheck Protection programme, large increases in unemployment benefits the child tat credit billions in grants, states so tell me central to what extent have these plans contributor to inflation? While it's really it's complicated, you know, you probably still see like inflation in the range of four five percent. If we didn't have a stimulus that was passed as part of american rescue plan, but it is on I have all that they have contributed. Some information on some level

it's also important to note. That January was a fruitless, JANET trying to do was a first month without the expenditure tax, credit and yet in force and continued increase year every year and the same thing goes further back of other measures like expand employment and yours? similarly, high inflation now of course, they're lying effects to that, but it seems likely that, as Republicans have said, that these this text? The reason you're seeing seventy percent inflation certainly is not a good luck. Forbidden, and one thing, that's important to note is that the american consumers pay maybe not gonna see the nuances of his supply chain issue. This is that binds fault no they're gonna hold by an accountable for inflation, and the point also bears But if you take more of a historical ones of things, there is not much evidence that suggest that government spending creates inflation. One analysis from building or, and wrongly, in TWAIN. Fifteen found that in the post war,

two error: there is basically no effective government spending on inflation and that's a period that coincided with the onset of a lot of big spending programme, so It seems unlikely that the EAST Timor's had no effect on inflation, but it seems equally unlikely that you can point to say: hey, that's the reason we're seeing sovereign Hopperson inflation without anything else. When it comes to the relationship between spending and inflation, there were a lot of different types of spending over the past two years. Is it clear what types of government spending are more liable to contribute. inflation than others. It's a comical question, but to boil it down, some kinds will tell you that the spending that adds to what's called the productive capacity. They call me that's like creating new jobs renewable energies. Things like that they will not increase inflation, they actually might

down in the wandering, because research building up what the economy can be doing, but spending that goes out merely quickly without adding to the so called productive economy, sell it say, transfers like the biggest mistakes he saw last year. Those are things that are more likely to lead to inflation. Now, that's more like a question of this is what happens rather than weighing the trademarks, and so several times stressed me that The question is not as if you're saying, hey family, for that got thousands of dollars on this really important. Some would say programme for the country during a really difficult time. It's nice if they would give back that money in exchange for low inflation and that that seems to be a separate question. I think a lot of people are perhaps not really asking witches. Would you exchange this higher inflation for no stimulus? I think that's a much tougher question to answer, but

It is also true that there are different types of spending answer. The spending that came out would say, with the infrastructure plan, that's very likely to increase inflation, or perhaps the bill back better plan, as opposed to transfer payments from the american rescue plan, which would be like stimulus, child tax credit increase unemployment benefits beyond whatever people were making in the past things like that, exactly am I. like you have to weigh the benefits and the costs of of any policy like that, but there is clearly a distinction between a plan to spending fans. Over many years. In this respect. that is indeed to serve jumpstart the economy, the White House.

Initially sad that this hyperinflation was transitory. Essentially, in has to do with supply chain issues once those are resolved, it will go away. Fear not. It now seems like people are saying that any more at the FED isn't really taking out a proper necessarily in the sense that they have indicated. They feel the need to raise interest rates in order to tear down on inflation. So what We expect to happen next. Will inflation decrease somewhat on its own? Is the FED Gonna have to keep you know, hiking interest rates and bring it down that way what our economies Basically, nobody is calling inflation transitory. Now than factor on Power chair, the Federal Reserve said a couple months ago that we should retire. That word basically because its interpretation has been taken to be as well. What's that, ok, sensations, not gonna! Last very long can be a couple months so the meaning of transitory might still be there in terms of its not going to lie too long lasting impacts on the economy, but in terms of, if you interpret transitory, is being hey. It's going to be gone by December, two thousand and twenty two

that seems very, very unlikely, so nobody is saying that inflation is gonna go away now. I think a law that has to do with how people, including the binding menstruation, interpret the pandemic to go on. They Braxton foresee two separate waves with at the very end, the contrary, causing decline. We to go into that a period of uncertainty and I think that's also was driving Americans uncertainty and their relative pessimism about the economy as well, so the fetters, fat raising interest rates, most economists, I've I've spoken to have said that they seem to be following the right plan of action when it comes to taking a measured approach to going down the economy, but also not acting so hastily that it causes a period of the law on patents, often for people, because if you go back to nineteen age or member that the FED took a very, very hawkish opposed to inflation and it caused a recession. What what's callers?

in recession and caused a lot of pain and suffering and lead to people being very, very upset with the Federal Reserve and the administration. So most people seem to have learned the what from then and aren't going to go into a period of prolonged economic recession for that. But there there seem to be a middle ground that the Bush administration seems to be fair. It now or while we will see what happens next, but faint your search for chairing thou unless central. Thank you well, that's it. Today my name is Galen droop Tony Chow, as in the virtual control room Clare, mitigate Curtis as on audio editing and Emily even asking is, are in turn you get in touch my emailing us at podcast that five thirty eight dot com. You can also courts tweeted us with any questions or comments. If you're, a friend of the show, leaves a rating or review in the apple pie costs. or or tell someone about us thanks for listening and will cease.