Hey there, Westerners Galen here. So here's a funny story, and I were at the airport, leaving Houston after the debate last week when we ran Into democratic presidential, candidate Andrew Yang were actually- on the same flight and so instead of wasting time waiting at the gate, we asked him to record a podcast with us now As you know, we don't usually talk to candidates while they're running for president, but on a whim. We just decided to see if he'd oblige and he did so to all the uh- and it's out there. If we see you at the airport watch out anyway, we you have to want to talk to him and we recorded the podcast on our cell phones, but we hope you enjoy. Hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. This is a very special edition, Nate and I are in the Houston airport waiting,

our flight to New York and we actually just ran into none other than Andrew Yang, who is also on the same flight. So, while we're waiting to board, we are going to record a spell addition, podcast for all of you will keep it brief kind of somewhat off script, but let's have fun with this. So so you're welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast. Thanks for having me big fan, I read your stuff all the time. It makes us all smarter and more data driven, unpaid and also, of course, here with us, is Mister Nate Silver. How are you doing I have gotten drafted in like doing a lot of stuff. Today I mean I have a tv politics is covered happens when you have a diligent staff. I know yeah same thing happens to me. I know I was coming out of the bathroom and I saw you and I was like hey: do you want to record a podcast? And now here we are so here is, of course, the major question coming from five hundred and thirty, eight, you done better in the polling so far, but of course, you're still in the single digits, the races

basically being seen as there's three front runners Biden. Warren Sanders, I think, probably yourself, a dark horse type candidate? How do you make it from the single digits to a front runner and having uh shot at winning the nomination majority of Americans no offense to anyone, but don't hang out on five hundred and thirty eight and are not paying much attention to what's going on in two thousand and twenty. So if you look at the camp, means? We are one of perhaps two campaigns that the ruse in steadily just gained strength and momentum? You'll see it in our fundraising numbers we're going to grow and grow and grow and peak at the right time, which is February year, and so everything that happens between now and then is just, but I want to get. I want to get specific right, because your coalition is very strong on the internet, but it's a very specific niche group of supporters. How do you break

that? What are your specific plans to get beyond your current support? Well, what we found that the message works with all sorts of demographics and constituencies, it's just that some people have found out about us first. So, thanks to the Yanggang, we now have seven figure budget that we can then use to introduce me and the campaign too voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. That are not. Familiar with us, and we found that the message works as soon as people get a chance to hear it right I mean we had a debate on this week's show about if we were campaign. Would we have a focus more and trying to turn out more? voters, more kind of doubling down on the yen gang stuff or trying to mainstream yourself little. More, you guys come up with. I heard this yeah Nate was arguing for double down on your maybe low propensity voters, whatever yeah

gang is happening on the internet and then Clare Malone? Our colleague was arguing that your key demographic to pivot, to is mothers who work at home and aren't necessarily paid for the labor that they're doing there I can't wait to hear this conversation because it mirrors the conversations we have in the office. That's why people come to the five hundred and thirty politics podcast. This strategy conversations are out in the open that you all are having behind closed doors. Ok, what conclusion did you come to right now. The great thing about where the campaign is is that it's not an either or you know we can do both of those things. We are doing both of those things. I think your campaign has. Raise concerns that Yang voters may not be represented in likely voter polls. Is there some like testable hypothesis for that and all kind of you get to Iowa basically, or what would you do with voters who are not traditional high propensity How do you model for them? How do you

for them to have a sense for which polls Miami not include them No, you can tell that you're, a very data driven guy need, because that's really again, so the state of the same stuff we're talking about in the office where clearly the strength of the Yang Yang, is not getting measured in conventional polling because a lot of these people are not comes third registered likely voters? in uh democratic primary that are incredibly passionate and passionate enthusiastic about the campaign So this again there's a two fold: a pro One is that we need to appeal to people who are conventional. Voters are likely to be pulled and are watching cable news. And then the other is to get more. Data on who are people are so we understand the true picture, yeah. How do you do that? What is your internal polling? Outfit look like, I know, you're, conventional candidate and some We sometimes try to distance themselves from polling, because it's not seen as

war. But what does your internal polling outfit look like? we are a very data driven outfit. We love information and I'm happy say that we have a lot of tech talent that has come to the campaign that they crave. Data too detect patterns in and so to us posters are an investment in getting more and better data. So what kind of information are you on covering like get specific? Give us some. Have some hot juicy details on the five fact that eight politics podcast the data we're getting, is that the message works on we're getting a sense of our own demographic, which we have obviously, and this is publicly available, you could look at our supportive roles. We have some more data from our subscriber list. Another thing but the other data were getting and when you run polls, you know this. It's like you find out how the message lands with people that might not know about you, and so the

The early returns are that this message will carry beyond our core. Demos is plant. I know the campaign is talk a little about um. They were in fifth or sixth place. Allow these polls sometimes even in fourth place. We don't get the media coverage of other candidates. Is there a and apart from doing, lots of friendly interviews to directive, bad while waiting for flights, while waiting for so my do. Is we stake out airport lounges in the hopes that major media figures like yourselves by and sort of pretend that we're on the same flight, you'll notice, when you get on the plane, will actually make excuses and then sneak now? Ok, but once the actual answer? What's the media strategy, I like that. That's good The actual media strategy is to continue kick but and making it so that the media finds our campaign. Newsworthy interesting fun because,

in our opinion, the two thousand and twenty campaign is a bit of us log and allow that the journalists who are covering it are looking for something in two in live in their own days. And do we think that we can provide that all right? I know that we are boarding soon, so we will let you go, but first I gotta get like a policy question and right. We've got to be something to have not just talk about the horse race on the rise we'll get criticized, but when it comes to your policy of giving people cash and then not defining these broader governmental programs that a lot of the other candidates are prescribing that break significantly with the democratic party. Why do you believe it's better to just give cash instead of using the tools of government to design programs that enhance people's lives through education, or you know, food stamps or things like that,

Again, I don't think this is an either or I think the government has an incredibly important role to play in many of its programs. Change peoples lives every day, but I also think that the Democratic Party is doing itself a disservice if it confines itself to traditional programs that have certain structures and require and if you've dug into my ideas, I believe the transformation of our economy is historic and unprecedented. Already kicking millions of Americans to the curb, as thirty percent of our stores and malls close, and I don't believe traditional program designed to handle the magnitude of the changes we're experiencing I think they're not making claims that are matched empirically because it sometime press those arguments, especially like in in a debate setting what what I'm learning needs is that politicians are politicians

and it's one reason why many Americans, frankly, are tuned out from the debate last night. Politics in general. I think the last ad I saw was something like twenty five percent of Americans are politically disengaged, so one My goals is to grow the audience for five hundred and thirty eight and make it so that politics is relevant to the man or woman on the street. Who is like none of these care going to do anything for me or my family Washington is bought and sold. It doesn't matter to me I'd rather watch reality, tv or the football game, I'm going to try and kids so that they see that we can change our own lives that we can improve american society in a way that touches us, and then

people will go to five hundred and thirty eight 'cause. They want to make sure that I get reelected last question here and then we will let you go and I'm curious, because I'm actually currently working on a project that looks back at elections throughout history. George Mcgovern was one of the last major Democrats in the Democratic Party to run on a universal basic income. The only states he won where Massachusetts DC, which is in a state, got creamed. People generally saw him as too liberal and the new Democrat error kind of forgot. Those liberals. Why do you think that things have changed think America is a different place and ready for the policies of Mcgovern. Now most of the people listen this right now do not even know who Mcgovern is in cannot remember, and fact, is the one state that has a dividend. Right now is Alaska. It's a deep red state. It's conservative! It was passed by republican governor. As you know, I have many fans who conservatives and libertarians n voters, because a dividend is at this

in a bipartisan idea. It's an overdue idea whose time has come and I'm going to pass. It in twenty one and improve all of our lives all right about to miss our flight, so we're going to let you all go. Thank you so much, Mr Yang we're not actually on getting okay, Nate, thank God! Well, there you have it folks. That was our brief, report interview with Andrew Yang, and they really were doing last calls for boarding by the time we wrapped up, but thank you to his campaign team for going along with it and obliging to do the interview and actually need is, now here with me in the studio to talk a little bit about our running with Andrew Yang, as some supporters have pointed out to us on the internet. We haven't talked all that much about him on this podcast so now is our opportunity. Thank you for joining me. Isn't there running like a confrontation, I think was confrontational. Oh, it was you doesn't conversation. I guess it was a. What was it

in not Arosa in run an Enron. Okay, sorry. So we talked a little during our conversation about Andrew Yang being popular with people on the internet. We talk but more about who Jiang's voters are other than the fact that they're on the internet, so One thing we know is that they mostly come from Bernie's two thousand and sixteen camp rather than from Hillarys Pile from people who are new to the electorate this year. I think he's not appealing to traditional establishment. Kratz. You know, I know he does relatively well with students, for example, some pulling out after the debate among college students, say you think one, and it was like a three way tie. I think, between Warren Sand and Yang so yeah, but This in some ways like an orthodox policy proposals, visions right in some way. Is a little reminiscent of Bernie two thousand and sixteen I do not mean

imply that he's going to win twenty four states or whatever, but that's kind of poor, I guess you know one thousand dollars month man's version of Bernie Sanders you, In our conversation with him, he is very outsider E. When you asked him about politicians being empirical and whether or not he gets frustrated, he said politicians politicians and that's why everybody's is tuned out etc. Is that kind of- of an outsider message, broadly appealing to democratic voters in the Trump era where we have like the ultimate outsider in a it's already in the White House. I mean in general outsider. Can I to win win the democratic nomination right kind of period. The history is, and you know history is always kind of short right, so we're not talking about like noodles in doodles worth of examples. Oodles and oodles, I just ran fit in real time, is it noodles and noodles noodles, and I think it's oodles and noodles? Actually all right, but just like Claire

use Lance Ability day right, which I'm not sure. Frankly, dear listener is a word. I decided just run with it, you know confidence, so we don't have Buddha, noodles or whatever doodles of history. But what were you going to say about outsiders, winning the democratic nomination, the traditionally it's like the Bill Clinton writer, it tends to be the Barack Obama's who win the democratic nomination in EAST Republicans would pick the insider candidate. You have a classic outsider versus insider confrontation, ah, like Clinton and this Bush in ninety two, for example, but like I think there is a little bit like okay, there outsiders, then there's like the like. You could be like your next door, bieber right or you know- I mean so there's like a little bit, maybe too far for some Democrats toward the spectrum of like you're an outsider. But do you have relevant political experience? I mean to be frank:

there are upsides and downsides to not getting out much media coverage right. When is you don't get much? Media coverage does bad. The other is that you don't get as much scrutiny, and so you know I'm not sure that let's have kind of gotten to the point they're like ok. Do we really want this guy to be? President? Is no political experience, you know, I'm not sure people started to think about that yeah yeah, and you mentioned Clinton and Obama. Of course, Clinton was the governor of Arkansas Obama was a senator from Illinois, so kind of had an outsider message, but were definitionally still part of the political establishment of the country for sure yeah I mean a governor, is, you know, used to be a very, very good credential. Apparently now people, don't like governors anymore Galen. I know so sad for governor shut it here for a governor anyway, so we asked gang what his plans were to make it from where he is to the nomination. Apart from this outsider history is there any history of somebody with his kind of pulling record going on to win the nomination.

In sort of Give me Jimmy Carter, maybe Jimmy Carter right definitely has like pretty low name recognition. So, for example, in the morning consult poll, fifty percent of voters have an impression of Yang, which means forty six percent. Don't they neither don't know who he is at all or they heard him, but don't know enough to form an opinion about him. That's pretty low right only on the democratic side, that's not Americans, broadly yeah and in fact, like you know- problem of these polls is an online poll thing, probably some of the internet polls. Actually, if anything, might great? How many people know you might be some small sample bias kind of who gets surveyed most polls, but he obviously is a lot of room to grow and Canada were at three or five percent presold generous. But, like you know, you aren't well known at least seven excuse or some hope to hold out that, like a Come better known than you'll increase that number. What would you put his odds win the democratic nomination, I don't care to speculate on that.

That if you pretty care to speculate on, I assume that it is not high. It is not high and this is not something that we broached with him, and I was kind of cake- self after we got on the plane for not kind of asking him more bluntly like what is the point of all this, your date, a guy, we talked about being in peer call and looking at the odds, and he said he likes data he likes five to yeah, is there a goal here, apart from winning the nomination, I'm first of all to qualify, not high a bit. I'm not sure I would say club Klobuchar, is a anything other than a not high chance of winning the nomination be even better over Castro were Cory, Booker so I kind of put all those candidates who were not the top five together in a lump that we call three. You know. I mean it is hard to know because he's, unlike I think we've seen before and like there's this question of kind of like existential humility. How much do we know or do we not know right? You know people would have thought

Donald Trump, was a very unlikely nominee. People would have thought that Bernie Sanders an unlikely second place place finisher for years ago. I'll say this on the air on the air. I think Yang, is more likely to win the nomination than Michael Bennett. Okay, because Michael Bennett is like for all the people listening who don't know who Michael Bennett, if he's a senator from Colorado, who is I leave, with double check on this still running for president. He is still running for president. But he's an example of like you know this whole out paradigm right, we're. Okay, it's hard to estimate the chance for some with the height tilletti your high variance right? I would not apply to Michael Bennett right, I might apply to someone who really is cut from a different cloth as far as president cannons go okay, so we want you to dig in a little bit into what his odds, maybe, but to that second question of: is there a goal apart from winning the nomination

he an issue candidate. Is he really trying to bring attention to automation and the concept of a universal basic income. You know what this is, you're right. We can't see inside of Andrians head and unfortunately I forgot to ask him. You know if there's a goal here apart from winning the nomination, but what would you say about that? I think originally right universal basic income. This is cause, and you know, certainly get the sense from seeing him away? Looking to him that he's having fun, I mean in a pejorative way. I mean like, like that are doing something and every now and then it goes better than you expected often goes worse than expected, but sometimes it better than expected, but then you're like in a situation where, like I'm, asking myself, questions that are probably hadn't had to ask myself before right and you could see, I think, a little bit in the first debate. He seemed to me anyway, like a bit deer in the headlights. You know trying to grasp like what the moment

and how we supposed to react to it and like you're on national television, which is a strange thing to do against all these really famous Democrats are running against you right and they seem to be more Conf in a subsequent debates, and I don't know you know I mean like is Quillian Castro having a heart to heart with his staff- and they say: okay well you're at one percent now, no one percent all year, if you we're actually putting money on it. You can go to like markets that you have a one, two hundred chance for market say now what I say I wanted, mission or something right like I mean a lot of candidates, kind of have to suspend their just fine, or they run for reasons. Apart from you know, I know once it in position or an ambassadorship. Those are plausible goals. I think the reason it's worth asking this question right is because it helps in standing what he does next right, whether or not he pains through Iowa or campaigns through July. If the goal is to focus on

as attention on an issue or a policy, then he said he's raised a bunch of money and presumably therefore can continue running for awhile yeah. No, I agree back to his strategy. For the time being, we presented him with debate that we had on the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast about doubling down on the internet audience or trying to pivot to a broader audience. What did you think of his response? I thought I mean I thought the whole interview is pretty honest right. It's one or maybe it's like good sign for his chances chances. Quite candid and honest with with reporters at I mean Trump has been pretty candid with reporters and he took it all the way go. Andrew Yang is the new trump that's going to get taken out of context. You heard it here. First Nate Silver yeah. My view is that, like you're running such Duncan campaign that your best bet is to turn out people who are not in electorate usual.

One problem with that is that they might actually show up in polls. Polls might screen them out as not being likely voters. So I wouldn't Whole ass, sucking that, but maybe that was all one issue that you brought up in the conversation, but his campaign saying hey the people who support us. Show up in these likely voter models. Is that believable? Do you think that's a fair critique of how his support is or isn't showing up in pulling plausible right. I mean it's so These polls are actually not using terribly tight, likely vote screens right there fairly permissive for the time being and in general, if you remember our interview, just with an seltzer on this podcast Channel pollster in Iowa Cluster extraordinary in Iowa. Indeed, she would tell you that, like Klay voter models are up for the voter, decide not up for us to decide right, I'm paraphrasing probably slightly correctly but, like you know so, that are very traditional. Like okay, have you been to the caucus before? Do you know where your polling places, how much attention are you paying to the campaign

read political news like those might not be as good for for Yang. I don't think right in the weeds enough, yet we're seeing these different likely voter models and poles and what effects they might have, so they might not be good for gang, but do you think they give us a good view of the primary turn out will look like? Is there a reason to expect that at this point, the democratic primary in two thousand and twenty will draw out a bunch of people who haven't voted? four or low propensity voters. I think that turn out in general has been high in recent elections, and I think it's likely continue in two thousand and twenty so I think it was a point. Look I think can a should generally almost always assume that, like what you get, the public polls is what you get plus or mine. Some margin of error right. I'm just saying like look first of all, if he's at three percent, then this is kind of an economic discussion right, which is where he's out about right yeah. If you set

Twelve percent and some polls show Matt Six and some settlement fifteen, then that becomes relevant or something right. So it's a little bit premature for now, because then that means that he's in a position where he could do they sell against this website is like ok, so cuts both ways right. You know the way it can cut favored it's turning out unlikely voters is that they're not making it through, likely voter streams or maybe not being pulled at all the down right is that they are going through the screen is the pulse of a looser like and seltzer type likely voter model, and they don't actually turn out to vote, so it can cut both ways far enough all right. Well, I think that about wraps, stop our analysis and again I want to say thank you to Mister, Mr Yang and his staff for obliging are airport interview. Request. Who knows maybe we'll and into some other candidates waiting for a flight. One of these days so, like I said before, watch out,

but I think we would be most likely to run into in the airport. I mean to Bosio yeah. That's that wasn't fun, okay, that a partner hey guys gang to Blasi out yeah, because what happened which can't we we do this came, which can't, we think would agree to a spontaneous airport interview with five thirty eight Marianne Williamson Amy Club, which are maybe better work, maybe, he likes to do pushups in airports. Reality yeah, who do you who else booty church would do it, but it doesn't do it. I think who wouldn't do it? Maybe that's a better question, I don't think Biden would do it. It's too big right and doesn't show up, even in the spin room after the debates, I think Warren would give us your card. Yeah Harris know Harris now may probably not if you're on his own. He might do it if he had staff within him, probably like. No. What are we basing this off of like how well they're doing in the polls a combination of I mean? Obviously, some candidate, I think, are better about accessibility. I mean whenever you wanna, make

the and there's a fair critique that, like the is not provide as much access to type environments as other candidates have right. Big critic of Hillary Clinton in two thousand and sixteen as well, but like Warren, has this kind of policy where, like if reporters are following her watching her catch, a train or something right, she'll play along a little bit. He does he's like selfie things after it. So it's like part of the and nothing is alright as spontaneous as as it seems right. I know, but if you are candidate- and you see us at the airport, then give us an area yeah, I think that's a wrap. Thank you Nate. Thank you. Gail and my name is Galen drew car in turn. Is Jay Carlo. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at five hundred and thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show. Rating or review in the Apple podcast store or awesome. Someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see you soon,