Does anybody work on the staff not have a partner whose aware, I guess maybe night, I'm not sure I could get along with a lawyer? What are we waiting on against lawyers argument of enough me if you like to argue it's like an alibi, I like to argue, find myself arguing it's different liking to are not met map, hello and welcome to the five thirty politics by gassed. I'm dealing droop, we are six weeks, from election day and the stakes for both parties have only increased since justice, Ruth Bitter Ginsburg, passed away on Friday. President said Monday that he would announce his choice for replacement this Friday or Saturday and Senate Republicans have largely indicated that they plan to move ahead with the confirmation Senator Susan Collins and leaves them are Caskey are the only Republican so far to say this

it should not approve a new justice before the election. Although it's not entirely clear how they would vote in an actual confirmation, so will discuss the process ahead and any failing that we ve seen. We also talk about how Democrats are reacting to all of this. And we're going to zoom in on the race for control of the Senate. We launched our Senate for Cast model last Friday and the races have certain heated up since then with care. That's raising millions of dollars after Ginsburg passing here, we need to discuss at all are editor in chief need: silver, Hany, hello, Galen. Hella group also is seen, or politics rider, clam alone, heckler hanging on and senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson Devout having area a gallon. Our colleague Perry will also be joining us later in the show. But let's begin with the republican whip count for approving a new super. Court. Just as I mentioned Collins and Mc Caskey have said, the Senate should not approve someone before the election. Republicans can

these three votes, but not for and still confirm and do justice. So Clare, who are we waiting to you're from, and is there any indication that they won't have the fifty votes that they need so recording Monday morning, and it's a little bit of like I guess, suing vote watch. So people like Mitt Romney, I think, are being why to see whether or not hill come out and say that you want someone approved before the election Chuck rashly. Also, you know it sort of an interesting person to watch he's sort of previously on the record saying that he would also want to wait till after the election and then you ve got people like Doug Jones, whose a Democrat in a very republic and leaning state of Alabama in a very republican, leaning Senate race. People are watching him, but you ve also got people who senators you know, sort of the obvious. So

that's, who immediately after news of Ginsburg passing in some unlike Kelly, lawful, are of Georgia, came out and said my thoughts and prayers with the family, but president trumps should be able to put his LISA, so there is certainly different approaches here. Mitch Mcconnell told his Senate caucus able eve on Friday evening that if they feel uncomfortable answering questions, they should just be quiet right. He said, keep your powder dry and I think that sort of what you're seeing here, because there are certainly a couple of republican senators and tight contest, where I think they want to be kind of. Full about how they perceive. This is a tricky issue for them and drive. It may be very, are also talking about coy gardener living. We ve heard absolutely nothing from you. I guess correct yes, so there's a lot of moving pieces on this. To be perfectly honest in its in some ways the fact that our Senate forecast just launched is it feels odd, to say this, but oddly Sarah

It is for the particularly nuance situation that we now find ourselves in Amelia Do we know so far about Republicans timetable for confirming someone? Is it clear that this will happen before the election as opposed to during a lame duck session. Potentially, what do we know about? It yeah. Well, I mean, if history as a guide, be very, very difficult to We can pass timetables to confirm someone before the election just because soup, for nominations you know usually take about seventy days, and we are obviously much closer to the election, the mat that doesn't mean that that's how things have to go and it seems like rats, now. You know Republican seem to want to try to do this really quickly. So you know, I think it is very possible that we can be heading for one of the quickest Supreme Court confirmations, possibly ever. I know it takes some time to get a handle on where public opinion

and is but need we have seen some polling so far. What does can public think about how things should proceed from here. So so far, it seems as though I mean dependent on a question morning, but most likely that trying to confirm someone before the election and proudly before the next president takes this would be an unpopular move. There was a! U gotta, pull that said, how do you feel about Trump naming some for the election than that. I'd like negative ten on now opposition. There was a poor from Scotland. Listen dot com, which is sadly no different than Rasmussen reports that are different phrasing. Kind of similar numbers. And there was a writers pole again, liquidity phrasing that showed support for nominee someone before the election way underwater and allocate forty point margin. Americans preferred to wait until after the election and let the next President Jews somebody. So obviously, if it's a negative ten, that's kind of eggs did going in that's pretty different than like a negative forty

aren't. We know we believe in averaging poles, maybe it somewhere between its also did new situation, but even if you take a negative ten with- kind of does mean. Is that the sense of technical and dry when such an important issue? But ok? So we know that when you ask people who do you prefer. Control Congress Republicans are ahead or behind, rather by six or seven points and then try similarly is behind by around seven points and national poles. For the presidency. So the numbers unit negative tenor a bit worse than that which I would interpret as like most people and their partisan camps member. There are but who are more democratic and promote weapons are not very popular right now, but there are, few swing voters who say you know what this is. Issue area closely torn, but this is an issue where I just don't really the idea of confirming summer before the election about devote there's a little accuracy here rather twin sixteen, so let me vote and then we'll decide so the marginal voter. I think this is probably a negative for Republicans. Now is

a negative for the marginal voter in Georgia, which is boyish, but also kind of red state. Still I mean that depends more. We're talking about like negative, ten or negative forty nationally It's almost like. Theirs is there's a cushion of people who are so four whelmed, I think, by everything that would have to happen and everything that is happening, that the idea of a soup We import, nominee being approved, the election is almost unfathomable and I You think there's almost the sort of like practical over load calculus of a certain type of voter a person who is not super partisan person, who's not super tuned into politics, and they might just say this is a, out of stuff to happen in the next under two months and frankly, they have an excellent point. Is overwhelming. I mean it's, you know, look when push comes to shove In theory, we come down to like what all the Republicans who are vulnerable fur losing reelection, would do and you think they would be careful. Hang it up

the opinion in their states. However, a lot of people for whom, I think that would be true. These people who were in races that are competitive both at the presidential level and at the same level. Several them have come out in favour of it. We should go ahead and vote that really having seen or other public opinions, so neat use over the weekend that, even if this is a potentially popular move, that it could be worth it just because Supreme Court seats so valuable in the want and maybe that is part of why we're seeing a lot of people come out before they ve seen the public opinion pulling. But the next step in what is likely to affect public opinion pulling is who president Trump actual picks and then how the debate around their confirmation unfolds what topics it focuses on, etc. So Amelia Could you give us a sense of who is on the short West and what the implications of some of those picks would be? Are some more or less conservative, more or less conventional from the west

course no longer lest we ve seen all the names by is there a shorter was now too yeah. So again, this is like a little bit of a moving target and I've seen some people kind of moving on and off the list, but been pretty short there's one name that you know its familiar from the last time we were talking about Supreme Court Justice, replacements, Amy, Coney Barrett, who is a judge on the seven Circuit Court of Appeals, so she's someone who trump trumpet actually said in the past that he was saving to fill this specific Supreme court, see which you now who knows what he's actually going to do, but she's someone who's, who's been in the max for a while another person who has I've come in recently, but I've seen at the top of a lot of lists as Barbara go up. Who was the first hispanic woman on the Florida Supreme Court she's you been. You know it's a little hard to tell what actually happening, because a lot of what seems to be happening as like people in Florida or like blue. She would be really good. Maybe you should pick her

and so it's a little it's a little hard to know- it's like that- just wishful thinking or if you know how seriously she's being considered but like nominating a span of women at this moment, adding more diversity to the court could be something that Trump wants to. So another prison that I've seen on some lists is Allison Jones rushing? Who is a judge on the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals right now? I would be really surprised if she's the pic, if only because she's thirty and that made her an extremely controversial appeals court nominee, because that's very, very young- she just like, doesn't have a lot of experience. You know what you anything that you usually do before you become a judge hummed, and so you know that strikes me as like. Almost like, unforced error, disastrous obvious thing. Like thing, thirty, eight religious super super young to appoint the Supreme Court cheese. Extremely conservative

then I've seen a couple more people who we ve assertive, seen like floating around on past lists, Joan Larsson, whose Michigan State Court judge a move, that par who is a judge on the six circuit, but I think like let go, I end bear it. Are the two main ones and you know they're both extremely conservative bear it had an especially controversial confirmation hearing back in twenty sixteen, because her Catholicism, came a really big issue, and you know I think Diane Fine Saint said that the dogma lives loudly within her. I don't have. That was the exact quote. What sort of said something that was really like a lot of people consider to be over the wind and potentially anti catholic and suggesting that you know she'd be guided by her religious faith in a way that eating by not talk about other people of their religious backgrounds. So I would expect that

come up again. I mean she has a history sheet. She is a law professor has written about issues that are very important, like abortion, like Obama, care that have made her views fairly explicit, and so I would definitely expect those past writings to get sort of dredged up and played out if she's, the nominee to to I've right into this question, I guess Senator George Holly from Missouri said that he expects The unanimity will publicly opposed the decision in Roby Wade. Of course, previously. Nominees have answered questions about row by focusing largely on precedent. If the nominee is publicly against the constitutional right to abortion How could this shape the nominating process and even the election Clare? I think the country already saw what a highly

partisan, highly contentious confirmation process looks like in the form of bread, cabinets hearings. I would expect that they would almost be a similar level of attention, although perhaps not the same drama, because obviously the cabinet has the situation was streamlining unique well, actually, not that unique in the sense of he was not. The first Supreme Court now need to be accused of some sort of sexual misconduct, but it was certainly where the heightened atmosphere I mean, I think, you'll, see a lot of people questioning the fundamental structure of the Supreme Court. As we know it now, which is to say nine justice is over the past couple of years we have seen a lot of people pointing out that year than injustice structure. I think only did back to like someone amid in hundreds, and there has been talk about, should we have more

judges should we have ten year for judges should they have to retired a certain age, and I think the idea that the court is going to shift so far right if trumps nominee through, particularly if trumps nominee is so vocally opposed to row that I think you will start to see the changing the structure of the court movie of more the main stream, but it's also mean it's how it might affect the election. I would say like with the different president. Perhaps the nominee would be council to modulate the expression of their opinion more prior to their nomination, but that's not particularly this White House style, and so you know I'm a little bit grasping at straws, because it's it's a bit hard for me to imagine the situation and how it would play out. But what I think I know for sure is that it would push a conversation on the left even further to, as what is now see is more extreme. Yet, look I'm assuming a talk about the polling here right, the polling.

Shows that Americans are very opposed to the notion of overturning Roby Wade by like a tutor when margin has been a consistent finding for a long time That differs from the finding about. When you ask people, are you pro choice or pro life and putting those terms of scare quotes? You know I was thinking journal to think. Both those terms are, framing things in a certain way and unworkable completely straightforward terms, but like Unruly Wade, because people tinted not prefer change republican nominee coming out and saying yes I'm going to overturn Robbie Wade. That is a potentially very problematic position for Republicans elect orally all right. If you ask him out- and they say I'm not going to say what I would do- I mean that could create different issues see my getting sneaking duplicitous but like if you already have a public interest hey hold on hold your horses, we naturally election. Then you actually started we're just gonna feel very rushed and then

just think about really way. There's thing about the Asia to what we say about the easier it is also popular Roberts is actually so interesting and all this because he is a Catholic But he is also the chief justice and an institutionalized and who has said that he believes in precedent, and then you have and you can t bear it. Who is also catholic but also saying, is also sort of taking the activists is almost lost, its meaning in the sense of innocent people. Talk about active judges, but she is saying the Supreme Court is wrong on this. It needs in a full blown we had to overturn it, and that idea of disrupting precedent is really radical yeah, I mean just in the history of Supreme Court confirmation hearings, it's just not a thing that potential justice is do when there in their confirmation hearings to save these are the precedents that I would overturned and there is a reason for that

which is they are getting nominated to a lifetime on the Supreme Court and part of the appeal of precedent? Is the idea that these unelected people serving life? I'm terms have lake some kind of institutional boundary on what they can and cannot do like they have to respect what the court has done before and Robert showed us this summer when he voted with the liberals to not to remove the court in a more antiabortion direction that he does really care about precedent. We Amelia do think Amy Tony Blair would openly say that she would overturned precedent as regards Roby. Wait. She didn't during her circuit court costs

nation hearings I mean, I think it would be. It would be a really radical step. Even for someone like her who was come very close, UNICEF has it has kind of criticized the Supreme Court on precedent on abortion and on the easier, but to say that out loud and confirmation hearing uniting anything is possible, but I just want underscore like how much of a departure that would be from the way potential justices have approached these questions, which they ve gotten. You know like every justice he's on the court right now. He's gotten asked about that and they ve all just dodged it. So always on the litmus test question you know it's like yeah such an cavanaugh dodged. This question, I think we ve gotten pretty clear signals from them that, given an opportunity to roll back abortion right significantly,

they would do it. So you know I don't even know how much you like matters to the people who really really care about this issue, to hear those words come out of her mouth. During my confirmation hearing I mean maybe we're at a point. Where really does, but it's not lake, we really don't have a good sense of where four of the justices on this Supreme Court land. On the issue of abortion yeah, I want to talk a little bit more about the affordable, correct which you mentioned and which we have heard a decent amount for. Democrats, but first today's podcast is brought you buy, zip recruiter, hiring can be challenging, but zip recruiter makes it fast in see one c o Ali needed to higher for a multi faceted role at his wallpaper company walls need love. He was like for somebody who was the right fit for his team, but his search was slow going, so he turned to zip recruiter, zip critters powerful. Aging technology identifies the right people for your job and actively invites them to apply, and that's how We found Savannah right away.

That's Savannah skills and experience were great match for the role plus she applied within a few days after he posted the job through zip, recruiter away, hired everyone from his head of marketing to sales director to his lead, graphic designer four out of five employers. Post on recruiter, get a quality candidate within the first day. Seafarers of how Zip makes hiring faster and easier. Try it now for free at zipper, critter, dot com, slash five: three: eight, that's zip recruiter, dot com, slash five, three, eight, the numbers, not the letters, zip recruiter, dotcom slashed five, three, eight. As we have been discussing here, we expect Roby way to be a significant focal point of any potential confirmation hearings. The binding campaign has also indicated that it plans to focus on health care and the affordable care out, in particular in its messaging, regarding the vague see so how'd. You Americans view the.

See I and its protections for pre existing conditions, which are a kind of what is up for debate in the upcoming Supreme Court session and likewise Similarly, as we discussed about rarely way like how does this play into the election overall name, So Americans ever since Trump took office, went from kind of disliking. Eighty eight liking, it which kind of by the way to like the Robbie way, question kind of says. Even when people are still an issue, they don't want to change the status quo that they perceive as radical. So you know that was a big issue for Democrats and twenty eighteen, I think an issue that Joe Biden would lie to resurrect a little bit for twenty twenty eight. You know you're buying and say: hey. They really take healthcare. We ve been. American and they're threatening to overturn Roby Wade. I mean operating at issues for Joe Biden, if it the claim- and I mean they're not like pretty girl, property issues right. These are issues you might debate. If you had a more conventional Republican running too,

Yes, he is popular. You also seen Democrats, try to say, hey look coverage. Is that all of us are vulnerable. Cobra throbbing in it be treated as a pre. Just in condition and or give people other long term. Preexisting conditions of varying severity saw me. That's why I we really careful here right. I think the thing about cabin we met in cabinet earlier, was kind of just polarizing size, but as about him as a person, and these accusations of assault and kind of where we all kind of align culturally on those right trump, probably love. If Democrats, attacking Amy going too. On her personal life for personal characteristics. Right may, with the problem, love like there's a snark surname I've portrayal of over the nominated. Is you make it a personality contest if critical framers is number one there through this and number one b there breaking regniero president and number two.

And overturn Roby weight and a birth rate can overturn. Ach I mean that gets to be pretty darn difficult electronically for republic, right. So they would love to do make anything back one of those framing, and we have to make it a personal question about the nominee So as we now on this page, has this election is waged state by state? Not so as a national election, the states that we currently think of as the battleground states or more fringe cases. Potentially like Georgia taxes are North Carolina. Maybe even do seeds see this kind of. Potential confirmation playing differently in different parts of the country with different sets of voters. I mean, let's take Arizona as it's on my mind, I'm writing about it. Martha Mc Sally has come out and said: the trunk should be able to confirm his nominee before the election Elect orally. That doesn't necessarily make sense for Martha Mix

Allie, who is losing voters who are white, suburban, I'd, sure who might identifies independent and whom we used to lean right, but are now being left the words people who would not necessarily love a pro trump or a precedent shaking Supreme Court nominee. I dont think its necessarily an issue that gun motivate voters positively for Republicans outside their traditional base. In other words, the people who pay attention to Supreme Court's nominations and who have strong thought about Roby Wage or even angelic goals. Those people will be really jazzed about this. This idea, but a lot of other. You know traditional republican voters might now be in fact again to bring up John Roberts, I almost think of John Robber as your white, so urban, voter and John Roberts is conservative.

Culturally. And what have you got a poet fiscally legally, but he as we ve been talking about doesn't want to rock the boat. Now that has a lot to do with, like it being the Roberts court and, like Roberts, wants to see have a good the legacy for the Roberts court, but John Robber. I think embodies that white, suburban voter who says Yanks should we be shifting all the stuff in this single, and only in this way, a year in the single election, but in a matter of weeks- and I think that carries out for like lots of other states where the Senate seat is currently held by a Republican but on a very thin line on an ice edge yeah I mean, I think, like that sort of radical disruption to the status quo is like what is suddenly being offered and,

I don't know we mention this so far. You now I soon like MR that have heard about this, but like the ach there there's a case involving the eighty eight that is literally being argued the week after the election. So you know this question about Obama. Care is like it's not just that, like a case will eventually make its way to the Supreme Court, and you know sort of this will kind of work its way out in the next few years. As things happen with this. The court, wake the cases literate like. If this person gets seated before the election, they will be deciding the fate of the affordable, correct, and that timing is just you know I just presented in such sites terms terms what's at stake. You re in this case in particular, involves preexisting conditions, which Nate mentioned the pulling on the Asia Overall, when you look at just pre existing conditions. Sixty eight percent of Americans we're going to the Kaiser Family foundation. Paul said they don't want protections for pre existing conditions overturned by the Supreme Court, specifically

you know which brings us all to Howard Democrats responding to all of this, democratic leadership, Democrats running for office boy. What, if any, bridge. Do they have what kind of political tools and persuasive arguments are they trying to make. Here I mean An aggressive responded with threats, sometimes implicit, sometimes explicit- that if someone's confer defend some people say period, but some people say out of everything the lame duck right say we respond by doing are things that include. Some combination of voting to expand the court would put remit as pack the court. But Congress has the power to determine how many justices there are admit, states like DC imported. We go to the union, and ending the filibuster again.

Some people say I wished to have tools and our arsenal use if needed, right kind of this future ambiguities duties, what put kind of saying these things outright, if you just trying to play the politics of it in always it's kind of an I'd response electorate, because like- there's one here that year being the reasonable party, you know what I mean and they I hear republics, are the ones that are kind of crazy in violating president, you know, and then, if they do to these things and later on, actually election and say whatever you want, especially when, like a Senate majority, we sent majority. Can't you any other things by the way. In fact, you probably need more than if a majority, probably need you now. Fifty two, fifty three, so I don't know I mean whether the question here is like is there at all as for Democrats, actually defeat this which is not the same thing as acting. Is there a chance that this thing? what I mean, of course, there's a chance it'll blow up, but is there much Democrats can do about it, you know

I find raising a mean they raise a ton of money by the way, like ACT Blue raise like literally a hundred million dollars, I think over the weekend and counting, but you know, cause They kind of twists. The arms of like Tom, tell us. You already come out in favour at writer, Korea, gardener Right or are they kind of animal a better off, but, like I totally maybe you're better off saying. Ok, little is Republicans, go down with a ship and we very helpful with them right we're, gonna, win six or seven. The Senate Seeds fright button. Do these very unpopular thing and then yeah then will turn the screws, then we'll kind of sea. If we have the wherewithal to add two or four justices and add two states in a emulous back up a little bit here right, a Supreme Court seat, especially one that changes, the ideological centre of the court is an extremely valuable thing. It's a that you would be willing to give up quite a bit for so outcomes razors that Republicans have it within their power to get that thing and they will do it and they'll pay a price for it.

Amelia and Clare, I'm curious about what you make of those threats. Essentially structurally change american government. If Republicans move forward them should they be taken seriously client or you covering the left for a while, and these are things that they were more or less suggesting they wanted to do. The last part of the Democratic Party, even before this came up. Does it seem something like something that could actually happen under abiding presidency of Democrats were to win the Senate short answer is yes, but you know with with some caveats rate, which is like. I think that if the democratic win the White House and the Senate, they haven't been an incredible amount of power and I would guess that they could be. They could be extremely aggressive about that right because as we know now, like things, fluctuate back and forth,

were in a more aggressive muscular version of partisanship, and therefore you know you dance with the one you were right, you just do it. The other hand that I can see is that Biden is a person who has promised that he will be. A bit of a soothing presence that he will restore things right so temper mentally Biden might not like that idea of radical change, on the other hand, by by necessity, has stopped quite a liberal platform and positioning. I know in some cases I think you can make the argument that more liberal than Hillary Clinton, twenty sixteen twenty. Sixteen we settled. Hillary Clinton has the most liberal platform of of any Democrat who's ever run for president or So I would be a fool if I said this could never happen, because I think it spent

two years that this concept of changing the court structure has spent two years percolating on the left now the thing that I think you also to take into account is that the Supreme Court, though the legal parts, the court's part of the? U S, government, I think culturally democratic Publicans is kind of small sees conservative like there is this sense of we are the you now. I think, of the Supreme Court is like our vessel virgin right like we are the last and an intellectual and mysterious shrouded. You know pragmatic point: that's protecting this the country. So there is almost like this, this cultural reticent I think I'm the on the court and like you'll, ask any of the you know. If you get any of the Supreme Court Justices, no matter how liberal they might be they'll say no, we should keep the structure of the court as it is

One way of saying I don't know but like there will certainly be if the Democrats holds the White House and both chambers of Congress yeah there. For me I'll ask do me a lot of pressure for people to do stuff quickly. Well, and also I mean there's gonna- be the reality that even if Democrats end up in that position of tremendous power where they have both houses of Congress and the White House, the Supreme Court has power over there. You know like if they want to pass a new voting rights ACT. Six conservative justice is on the Supreme Court, can say that's unconstitutional, and so I Biden. I totally agree with you clear. I think sort of like us is temperamental. We less excited about these like kinds of big changes than a lot of the other people who were running for the democratic nomination in a lot of other people on the left, and I think there are good reasons for that. Just because, once you have set the precedent of, we are going to mess with the structure

of this branch of government. Then, once you lose power, you know the other side can do that to, unlike its dangerous thing to do in some ways. On the other hand, I think Democrats may feel like they don't have a choice, because a six member conservative majority on the Supreme Court can basically stop a democratic agenda like in any direction you can think of, and so they may be driven to this point of of having to consider really really seriously, even if it's something that like Biden as a person, it is really unenthusiastic about doing just because otherwise he's not but they're not gonna, get anything done, yellow coming from a basic level of here, you know obviously of democratic span with so they go for for liberal justices ripe. So then, I'm turning them can I make it seven second set of six three other. We should really say it

be five and a half in three and a half, because Roberts so interesting now cause like Roberts is really conservative any. I think people like have this idea of Roberts now, as like, sir, not wanting the court to move too fast at an that's right, but right, I wonderfully Roberts did not have to feel personally responsible For the court overturning row like how mad he would actually be about that, so I do good sort of like Supreme Court Politics is little bit of a black box, and just because this is how Roberts has behaved in the past. I genuinely dont know how having another conservative member who could sort of outvote him and he would no longer have to take responsibility for being that fit vote how he would react to them. So I've also pressure in various die in various different ways over the years on this podcast- and I know that your very sceptical of any suggestion that we have moved to a new or different place in a

in politics because, yes, history. As long as a straw, man, we ve had all kinds of different experiences in american politics, but does this question this conflict that currently, before Republicans and Democrats put american politics, different place were generally, we think of like developed democracies as requiring a reliance on norms and restart and you don't always do what you the power to do because of threats of retribution. And that you kind of keep each other in check and show restraint in order to like uphold the democratic norms and idea. It sets out the window now or are we quickly approaching the place where that is out the window? Well, look I mean, I think, right now, Democrats don't have power in the country, however, they won the popular both the presidency last time they do have a house. We actually have centres that represent more people, have a public centres. Another. There are fewer democrats in power and that's it

Arguably it's part of the design of the system, arguably not right, but, like I think, democratically ok the status quo is profoundly flawed and profoundly kind of I wanted to like what the farmers would have wanted, but you know we take for granted, but the kind of defaulted but there's some sense and which is totally crazy- that Hillary Clinton Guy- three million more votes and didn't become president most countries, some other countries. You have systems like that most countries, don't write in some set. Its totally crazy that this region, the country called Wyoming, has what representations are region called California, where like my only by the way, devil sorrows, cool original California, where there are like literally what does it eighty times where people are something and so yeah, I'm gonna think we kind of take for granted. We are part of our system and for a long time kind of norms abided. But you know- and I think in private- lame. Publicans, more democratic, reviling those norms, but yeah. Look if it becomes a thing that, like.

We're gonna wrestle some power back from the courts to legislate just what you doing right, you're, saying, ok well sure, what's up escalation of more more justice has every time right. Every time a party controls both back. The Congress of just add enough justices, maybe father of the present can veto it anyway, relatively trifecta, which Democrats is in play for Democrats. They, just add more justices until they have one more than they need to confirm their agenda right. Would you like some fibonacci secrets you go from like nine justice? Thirteen it did Nineteen thousand twenty one- I have to say The way that you're, describing both the political system, in its reality and the political system in its hypothetical future. Sounds like some explaining the rules of settlers of ten, which I think is like an apt metaphor. For what american democracy like as it actually holds now has become it's like this series of like complicated. We have

way our strategy three steps ahead in part, because hyper partisanship means that there is No longer, I would argue a cohesive set of these are the unbending norms that will stay that these are the fundamental things. Now that everything is up for play. There is this kind of like. I almost think that we should be more. People should be more honest in the political sphere of, like the extreme pragmatism and games been ship with which they act like people on the Republicans. I should just be honest about it and say like yeah we're like throwing Mcconnell statement from twenty sixteen out the window and like because that's how politics is right, like I think our new american democratic set of rules is like just like. Pure Machiavelli, when you have power, use it yeah, it's pure, machiavellian gamesmanship and there's lots of steps ahead and just to say that

not traditionally how developed democracies function right, like all, would have only been around for a couple hundred years. Several bear the brunt of let me say I mean I do want to like point out that, like leasing we are talking about, are not truly impressive right in earlier years of the country, there are different leverage that parties pulled, including changing the size. The court you no kind of Fdi ART to do it to write, but, like you actually was done, sometimes that other parts of the republic, and certainly certainly certainly like adding state There has been a major major major issue that, until recently was very common right was a very way that parties here can, with a price, tried to wield and influence power. So the fact that its that impression is just kind of No American is old enough to remember these things right but Jessica. Ok. Well, you can give way Wyoming, as many centres is California. Maybe we need more. California's you're furnace the Supreme Court, though yes

The idea of changing the structure of the Supreme Court is not unprecedented, but the Supreme Court is so much more powerful than it was in the nineteenth century or even in the nineteen. Thirty is when, after I was talking about doing, I mean like really, you know we're timely. The modern Supreme Court has just like assumed a different role than it did at. You know really any other point in american history and as part of that you know, as the Supreme Court has accumulated more power, I think the idea of the Supreme Court as sort of being above the partisan fray. Even if you know you can stay, that's a miss like whatever that idea has remained very important because their power has expanded so much, and so I do think we're at this moment we're we're. Contemplating you know

these potential big changes to the structure of the Supreme Court like even if it's not totally unprecedented. It's a really big deal and the Supreme Court leg. It doesn't have any enforcement how're you how, and so we could really change the role of the courts in american life in ways that, like yeah, I certainly can predict. So, even though it is unprecedented lake, these changes would be a huge deal and I genuinely dont know what the effect would be I'll. Let you in the same meant Galen but like. I will say that if this were a dinner party, this would be the point in time when you would but another bottle of wine and you'd say so country actually to physically big for us too, to govern and they you would like you now. Just a viral down from there. Okay, well

The things that we ve been discussing here, would only be a possibility of Democrats were to win the Senate anyway. So let's dig a little bit further into the race over the Senate, especially now that we have our forecasts, but first today's podcast is brought to you by upstart during is economically turbulent times. Everyone is looking for a way to feel more financially secure, so if you're still spending, lot of money on high interest credit card, that it's time you checked out, upstart the revolutionary Online Lending platform that knows you're more than just your credit score. Like other lenders: upstart can reward you based on your education and job history in the form of a smarter rate. Although you don't need a degree or diploma to apply upstart lets you skip coming to the bank because its completely online, they offer loans from a thousand dollars to fifty thousand dollars. So you can consolidate your debt into one easy, fixed payment scheme, Upstart has a four point: nine out of five rating Untruss pilot and hurry to upstart dot com, slash politics to find out how low your upstart rate can be. Checking you only

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of how Zip recruiter makes hiring faster and easier try. It now for free at zipper, critter dot com, slash five, three: eight, that's zip recruiter, dot com, slash five, three, eight, the numbers, not the letters, zip recruiter, dotcom slashed five, three eight, as we discussed Democrats, have talked about trying to change the structure of the Supreme Court and other parts of american governments. If Republicans and up confirming a new justice to the Supreme Court, of course, they could only actually make those changes if they were to win the Senate and that requires them gaining a net three seats, as of today Democrats have between a sixty and seventy percent chance of taking control of the Senate. According to our forecasts, depending on which version of the forecast you look at but to get a better sense of the race for control of the Santa, I have asked Perry Need and Clare to Pegre ways that they think is particularly indicative.

Important in the context and to dive a little deeper into it. Now that we have the overarching forecast to give us a sense of where the re stands and so Amelia has departed. Perry you have joined us. Perry has account thanks for being with us, to rethink, trim so Perry. You pick main Clare. You picked Iowa any you picked Arizona, so Perry. Let's have you kid things off with me what are the contours of that race? What make it particularly interesting are indicative of the twenty twenty cent a contest we'll Galen. When I picked this on Friday, the main Senate race was the closest one, according to our forecast I think we now this is a big boy came out in Iowa. With will address, I assume later the segments Ohio is now the closest check. If we now, according to the forecast that said we ever Sarah Gideon, the challenger to Susan COM

in Maine as Gideon the Democrat as a sort of an very, very narrow favorites in this race and the key dynamics is pretty much every pole in September, conducted in August to last month of poles at all, pretty much head Gideon a head and brutal. Smaller ass? You know so damn the single it it is sometimes not double judges or even in the high seas it has been getting, is definitely the favourite might think, the big factor, their courses that made a democratic leaning state. I think, according to our people, levers- and we get here- we have Biden about fifty four to forty ahead of Trump in means of misery of main is fourteen points, leaning toward by over all hard for Collins, a Republican to win, was she has wanted times against in presidential elections, The democratic party was winning. The tablet is not that hard for how to overcome that so

The key factors here are: you know: Collins has a reputation as a kind of a central Republican she still is she had. This will be the big promoted by was, as we voted against the Oak Obamacare repeals CAP Obama care in place in twenty seventy. But Democrats who, some of whom have been voting for collins before it appears by the Poli. Her disapproval rating among democratically, would weigh up after she, voted for Judge Cavanaugh gave a pretty strong speech in a sort of dim in attacking the resistance. People would really urge you to vote against given also the cabinet vote seems to have been a very big factor and probably me going making Collins go somebody who probably think would have been the favorite to win to Hutus now and a slight underdog to win that race. So that's it so the Kavanaugh vote is a big factor, there's not a ton of demographic. To talk about beyond what is one big one main is very wise: that working class,

There is in Maine or white voters that cows reason main tend to be more republican. There's a big big college gap where Biden leads in college graduates by something like thirty points in Maine and Gideon also a big led among colleges or the College Non College gap in Maine there is. This is a place right. Think this next Supreme Court opening will be big and he saw on Saturday. The seller Collins has taken us into the democratic position. She said, unlike pretty much Every other republic into the Senate did we. The elections should pick. Gins rose replacement, so words, Biden or tromp, or always lectures if it gives her displacement forces most probably just saying Trump's, saying trumps picture get about no matter what Collins leaning more credit view and is probably because mean a state at least democratic. She needs to win a fair amount of democratic voters, Biden voters to win

race, suppose the general dynamics of the pair. You picked this race to kind of dig deeper here before we actually knew about Ginsburg death. When we were planning the podcast last Friday, So we now know what position she's taken on filling that Supreme Court see. Do you think this makes it harder for Collins, to win or does taking that position even make her more mavriky like how does the six weeks ahead of us but are gonna play out in an extremely grace and partisan way, sheep, the main Senate race. So I don't know, but here's my two conjectures another take both sides of the same. We want it so the one in the most obvious. What will be like this is a partisan defining of it. So it is like in it the next six weeks, the supreme operational beyond we talked about a lot and that gonna put people in their party camps and Republicans are getting pushing for trumps pick and

demographic me talking early opposing trumps, big integrity, she's like abortion and Obamacare, and saying that this is a sign of why why they're going to take it? Take the country much further to the right and we should help Gideon but ones jumped out on Saturday and said: hey, I'm aligning the Democrats here on this position, and so in that, since you may be the case, This makes her little more memorably if you like Susan Collins, because she's a Republican who occasionally join the Democrats she's doing there again. Here I mean if she kind of forcefully came out. I was like no. What of doing is wrong. We must wait. Maybe that would have an effect, She didn't by huge March last time. You would not seem like an easy come into defeat. Democratic, timid, undercutting there for years and have not really come close by if she hems, and I people kind of its own, muster a meme or a joke that she kind of

is a very decisive and I'm not sure that would help. Necessarily if she kind of forces like knows is wrong in companies to know it right. I don't know, but the fact that, like it seems like if there this group of voters, whom Biden is doing better with its like older working class, whites bowling very well in Maine Polling, very well in Minnesota and the state's a lot of older working class? Whites- and I don't know- I think that makes it if I'm going to win that say five hundred and twelve like a lot, but maybe then does the old version of using Allen had a certain magic. Could she getting it? splinters. Maybe I'm not sure if it that the new one can some kind of her magic, maybe has borne out a little bit here, but again are fundamentals, part of our model still says they should be it. You know she should be tough to defeat she's very moderate right actual looks at voting records, but if people kind of give up on her after Cavanaugh

then reminding them of that with this may not be as helpful. Are well, let's move on to the next day that we are focusing on what Perry you said is actually now the closest race according to are forecast and that as Iowa Circular one of the dynamics at play in the ILO Centre is right. Now got basically a toss up. I guess so First thing to know about the Iowa Senate race is that it is between two women, which I think we should always notes in american politics, because there are so few of them, particularly The Senate anyway, Johnny Ernst, is the republican and combat and currently are forecast, says that she has a fifty six in one hundred chance of winning the election. She's Rennie against him said Greenfield who's. The business woman, who's never held elected office, which I think is an interesting component of the right,

and I believe someone alluded earlier to this whole- that came out- I think, on Friday, from it's the domain register, cells or pole, and that puts Teresa Greenfield the Democrat up on Joanie Ernst by three points, and that is a pull that gets an eight plus reading from us. So I think that that is something that has been seized upon with great interest, Johnny. Ernst is a Republican who has like a couple of other Republicans in close races decided to hew pretty closely to President Trump. She spoke at the virtual. Convention. While she has not come out herself to say what her position is on

scottish nomination a couple of months ago, she's, a member, the Judiciary Committee and a couple of months ago. She said basically that Trump should be able to pursue a nomination. Her campaign actually sent us a bit of a add, taste, fundraising, email right when Ginsburg death was announced on Friday, and so she kind of had to make this public announcement that that was in bad taste and heard her thoughts and prayers Worth Ginsburg family. But I think Ernst, based on previous comments and based on just turn, general vibe of sticking close with the president. That's your strategy that she's decided to root out green fields is I think helped by the fact that she is a person who has held elected office she's, doing pretty well with independence,

on the other hand, is a pretty well known figure in Iowa, and I know that her approval ratings have sort of gone down over the past couple of months, particularly, I think, because its tied to covet response, and probably the president's response to covered, I think Trump in Iowa- has like a slight led right now so so were basically seeing you know- and I owe it is a pretty white state. This shift, I think, among white voters, white independent voter thing, these animals Whitehall dedicated people, saying I don't know like they did it. I dont know if the if the Republican Party and twenty twenty is the right party for me. So that is

end of general stakes in Iowa. But what we see a lot is like sundry, research or candidates in these close races who have made the decision to stick closely to trump. You kind of have to stick with it to some respected in the last couple of months, but, like I think, errants could potentially benefit from saying. No. We should we should wait on a Supreme Court nominee. I dont know if that makes coherent sense with her strategy but like if the idea is to win back people in the middle. There is some idea that, like while you couldn't tat more moderately, but that's not a surly, how politics works right now, so that's kind of the state of play in Iowa. So I think would mean that if one of those races where, if Republicans

old main they, it seems like almost certainly holding the Senate. No, I think that's wrong. You think that's wrong, because I think the main races cork here right, I think, Collins work here. Ok, Senate yeah, yet we care for those claims relative to claims about, like the presidential ray right like give Democrats lose main divine, loses main and binds toes right, but little guy, it's a little bit more. It's a bit less correlated. What about Iowa by thinking was that Democrats had to win but they don't necessarily have to when I want, because they could win Say North Carolina, but do you think that's Ronnie So I would say I was a more typical race. Joanie Ernst was concerned A rising star, she'd, have any like scandals to speak of course, he's running as an opponent has never held elected office before it was kind of an unknown. So fact that that racist, that's a really really really bad sign for Republicans in a state, you gonna bit redder. Follow me

Love is the mean this year and what seems just like There are just voters who just do not want you to be tie that much trump. We have art. Score, which their measure of how often you vote with Trump, pretty simple. It's ninety one percent for Joanie Ernst lifetime. We would only predict they centre from Ireland to be sixty eight percent, baseness states, partisan lean and so she, kind, have been very reliable vote for trump and photo seemed to be actually punishing that we're talkin Arizona in a moment Martha Mixed Sally. Ninety five percent lifetime Trump score. What's collins, and that is carefully Susan Collins, sixty seven per so she has differentiate herself right. That's what I'm saying and she differently herself on the Supreme Court. Pick now maybe the highest aliens vote. She didn't do as good a job of that right, but you can actually say: hey, look at call him as I see them, but it's only hurts can't say that and she come out in support of movie have with this go to speak. So someone

list earths as supporting moving forward based on previous statements, their campaign that sentence fundraising, email out shortly after our big e died or the news that was out so she's, not really trying to like act like a purple state senator and we can take my Arizona now, the one who is really not trying to act like pupils at centre is Martha. Mixed Sally, which is so strange just one word note Here- Clinton lost ILO by nine percent. Points and arm pulling areas has by and down by two points, so it looks I was one of those days it may have moved. Some is generally having read in a sort of twenty year gap, but maybe in this race will get more pro democratic, maybe clean, let us have a low point. Four Iowa is my guess into does sixty year and that doesn't it observation, particularly because I don't think we ever would have imagined several years ago that Iowa. And taxes would be in approximately the same partisan position and in twenty twenty, but on

let me remind the Arizona, give us the run down. What's going on there Is it safe for me to say that if democratic dont want Arizona, they aren't winning the Senate? That's probably safer yeah, because this is one of the safest pick. Ups for Democrats there about eighty percent to win. You know they have a personally popular candidate and Mark Kelly. You have a kind of proof. I say it, but a proven loser and Martha Maxell. She lost the race. Last time was appointed to the seat as an interim replacement and now is pretty fun. And poles right now and she could become. This is confirmed by some twitter so that Europe's reliable know, however, she become. Potentially, we believe it is true. We probably some correction research service report to cover it right. The only person to lose, to send races in two years which both swiftly party, so she may personally responsible for flipping the democratic delegate in Arizona from red to blue

I think she has lost her old House eat too, but she resign to represent. The first place is therefore also give Democrats it anyway, but but she siding with public asset like ninety five percent of the time in a state that is increasingly purple, she lost the race. Last time I mean it just kind of like a little bit of our EAST Germany suicide here but like it, is like a little bit not optimal to actually make sure my chances of winning the election does mean twenty percent is not zero right. We look at trumps because between two percent and our forecasts ago, my guy, that's when percents pretty high rate, even twenty four Let us not zero, and maybe she can come back in the pulling, would be wrong, but she hasn't led a pole in ages- and I think a springboard thing is mac- can help her at all. Now, The way you framed it is puts a lot of the response. Reality for doing poorly and that stay on Mars and Sally, and she may well be just not a good candidate but water, the broader,

factors going on in Arizona that are making the state look as if it more likely than not to go blue, presidential level in twenty twenty and making. Also, of course, the Senate race, a tough one from Sally I mean in Arizona this always estate. Reload people have moved to Arizona. You had kind of an older more conservative Canterbury, Goldwater population there. They know, maybe ever younger population people moving for quality of life right. You have spent a copy of it in his younger there right it's a fairly and stay people, think of Arizona results very hot outdoors right. They open spaces but action. Very eyes. If you look at our living in a place where you're surrounded by the people, then most people lived there in Phoenix or Tucson or theirs, herbs and there's not a lot of population elsewhere in the state. Are increasingly dense. Not despite by EAST Coast, entertainment, Chrisley, dense and diverse metropolises so you know I mean errors, and am I really be the state that kind of I went to predict this

like did the suburbs state and if this, if the swings are happening in the suburbs, that's a big. There is also, I also think like if you look at some of like the issue importance in in states like it I know in Arizona particular cause, I'm I'm looking at it right now, like the immigration issue. I think, hurts Trump and hurts Republicans, because it's really fallen down from like a top issue in the state too. Now you know health care. And jobs and education being the president. So Trump is like a little bit in this weird space with Arizona, because I think you do you think of it is like oh, it's Joe, a Pio state right. Get news for this message should work, but in fact it's you know it's a state where a lot there, a lot of retirees its needs, have also perhaps changed and think most s are probably happening among the white population, although obviously like the every single election, the has spent population of eligible voters grows but like,

Those white voters might see themselves as more independent, then report, again and they might say why Joe Biden like you know Maybe things would be different if the nominee were like Warren, but Joe Biden, Joe Biden, and therefore I feel ok about slide into the left. This time around. He had a lot things like an older, I mean in others. In some polling day in the deep south that Joe Biden is doing I'm gonna win any of the multiplicity of the deep sea, he's going to win in Alabama something, but he may lose by a less catastrophic margin that democratic over the past couple of go around right. Sir member. Ok, let's get into it right. I've had a woman nominated. You ve had a black eye, you had John Kerry this kind of northeastern represented that way very much Al Gore was Mister Climate change, although he was a little bit, did little bit bit better ready its along comes to have the kind of like a safe, older white guy. He presented himself is at least some disposition only moderate and some the kind of combination of like that, I'm refugee.

By the way. There also a fair number of Mormons in Arizona, and Mormons are a group that, although still very republican, has become not as much republican as they used to be just kind of a good combination of circumstances for Biden in Arizona at the same time, you know you never know you think people always predict Hey Florida, was gonna become more blue right. Carolina. They kind of remain stubbornly for Democrats, redder, red purple by Arizona with immigration patterns. Does kind of have it like a similar kind of Serbia, been feeling that might make him like Colorado, Virginia, which kind of we're propeller time, but Billy are kind of more blue states. Now are what we have been running long so far on this pod cast as we wrap up here and closing thoughts on you know kind of control of the Senate. Obviously there has been a significant shake up in our national while eggs and issues that were focusing on since just last week when we launched the forecast by closing thought here. So just stick

Briefly to rent the we didn't win. A lot raises an asthma touch on them, beef. Briefly. Colorado's erase recovery gardeners. The underdog ease the Republican incumbent Tom also the underdog republican income as though the terrorism of the Democrats, if they win the Senate, those are two very important building block of aid that immigration. When the Senate, Steve Danes, the republican incumbent in Montana, is the favourite, but you get Steve Bullet the current governor whose whose at the kind of person you can imagine me winning acidity because he has a brand, can it independent of his party Doug Jones is the Democratic Alabama, of course, he's a particular underdog vision she's the one seat, the Republicans while they will flip back and then David Byrne in Georgia is it is the first read, but is not what is a racist worth watching as well? John also I in him and then find

Lindsey. Graham the will be running the committee's hearings if, as a nominee is the favourite pretty clearly guess Jamie Harrison, there are the Democrat, but there has been a couple Paul's that show the South Carolina race to be in the margin of error. Obviously I think Linsey Graham is going to win he's the person I'll, be watching through to see if he uses these hearings as a way to boost himself because it was like he's running a few points behind Trump in that stay so alarming. Of a trauma actually really helping softer line are well, I, the forecast right now shows democrats with a sixty to seventy percent chance of war. But chamber need just before we go look at the dialogues classic- were light version of the Senate forecast when you're trying to get a sense of the odds, I think like a combination of classic end deluxe deluxe engines, the expert ratings-

you and I you, but it's a little complicated like there, either more subjective element to it. I think sometimes extremely little conservative about saying are toss it when the maybe art, but there is the one that performs best. At least Ensample tests are well, let's leave things there, so thinking eight. Thank you. Thanks, Clare, these down and You bury thank you. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow is in the virtual control room, Clare Bidding curse is helping us, but audio editing. You can get in touch right, emailing us at podcast that five thirty eight dot com. You can also course tweeted us with questions or comments, if your friend fan of the show leave us a reading or review in the Apple podcast store. Tell someone about us thanks for listening and we'll see you soon

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