I like the Indians ourselves. We have decided that this package will now be part therapy and part english seminar. He's gonna be really exciting hello, nuth by three politics: pockets. I'm Chadwick, Matlin Deputy under at five thirty eight Galen is off this week and to show week so will have only one episode, the one you listening to right now and you're stuck with me for it. Last four years have been rather terrible. Don't you think, two years of an undulating pandemic over a year of snarling about who really one the presidential election that was actually straightforward and months Consumer prices took up as wages, don't keep up with those texts being happy in america- can seem downright radical at times and yet, as many Americans today say their says, with their lives as basically any time over the last few decades.

If everything is going wrong, why do some pulls find us to be so content? We will discuss, We look at another surprise, states are rolling in cash despite forecasts of butter shortfalls during the pandemic, think of have billions and billions to spend on their politicians top priorities and they're, not all spending it. The same way we discuss what states decisions tell us about Parson device. and whether there are any ideological similarities between the parties as long as there's money to help make things go and then finally, discuss the Big NEWS story of the month ahead. The conflict in Ukraine has this recording russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian for is into eastern Ukraine, essentially claiming to states as part of Russia's sphere of influence. by in, has been warning. This possibility for weeks and much of what comes next will depend on how bite in the EU, and Ukraine choose to push back were discussed. our citizens want and just how much of an effect that has on what politicians actually do.

Here. We ve been doing that and talk about, surely more than just at our peril of my very astute colleagues. First there's an amending letter, Mcloughlin Mica, hello, Charlie, proper to working the word undulating into the leave very nice. You know tat the lawyer, personal personal, such renewed, ss and then there's our senior reporter Amelia Thompson to go. He can Then a new voice, Robbie listeners are newest senior political writer. Monica parts is with us today, Monica joined few weeks ago and we ve been eager to have her on the pot cast Monica welcome to the shop. Thank you so much for having me unhappy here again via? Maybe you could tell us all we really work ever evaporate. Yes, I'm gonna be working on a lot of pieces sort of at the intersection of politics and culture which is gonna get. demographics and send a rule Orban divide

also just how people are really doing and how they are really feeling and how they make decisions and what they need when they say certain things to foster a sort of getting into the. What that means on the ground and a real ever talk about the books that you ve, Britain and winning the publishes is that allowed or their topsecret. We should talk about cast S, not ass. He grabbed by its forthcoming farm. Penguin ran random house. It is called the forgotten girls I think there's going to be a sub title that I do not know yet. I thought about it. A memoir of me and my tells her best friend, I grew up in rule Arkansas, which is where I live now, and I left college and she did not, and so it's me coming back to find her interests in the ways. Are lives turned out differently and also kind of the same in some ways: free right there.

talk over many months to come on the show about politics, you book, etc. Let's get into the show proper guys so last week fighter its efforts, could not stop talking about a series of tweets from the Atlantic Stair Thompson and yes, that is the kind of thing that really gets our engines revving at five hundred and thirty eight in shared a recent poll from gallop that found. Eighty five percent of Americans are satisfied with their own lives, which is more or less in line with where that number has been at any point in the last few decades, but only seventeen percent are satisfied with the way that things are going in the. U S and so what I want to talk. That was how much we can really learn from a pole like this and in a number of interpretations that we can run through, but first I thought we could maybe reveal our own biases on this question Might I will start with you? Are you, more satisfied with your personal life than with the direction of the country. Yeah that's right. I mean,

you know there are some things in my personal life that that could be improved. Now I thought I thought he'd be funny I tried to derail the entire podcast with the discussion of my personal life, We always make this a self help. I cast my God, you noticed like share all your problem will give Mr Varela yeah yeah exactly, I think, we're just as good. This can be a therapy podcast. Now we transition into that. I think it would be helpful. Note yeah. Absolutely my per sunlight is going better than the countries personal life for the country's output. she's outlook, as is show that are really low bar. I think that part of, what's going on here, the million I assume you feel the same, that another of your feeling really more optimistic about country than you are about your own life. Sort of the oblique wait, a live right. Having serious psychologically, if you think the country is doing better than you are poorest

we haven't. I guess you know there could be a lake The situation where you feel like everyone else is doing better and you're not an innovative, and then I feel it that's connected high filling the countries. Doing too was, though, it does feel hard to have a situation where you and say that your personal life is doing worse. I don't know, of course, I'm sure some people did say, but it seems like probably not the predominant view yet. I don't think it would be possible to live that way. Something would break first. Anyone be tough, two pollsters on the phone. If our true this question of like what you would tell us, where things at the heart of this, which which will get you in a second, but this is good news and bad news, one seven essentially, and so I'm wondering what we can rely on when people are talking about the happy, to a stranger, and then this gives it the heart of conversations we ve had across shy.

Our voters and then other things buzzer. How much trust you are willing to put impostors in general and- and I'm wondering, let's just take the personal satisfaction right now- We read headlines all the time about how difficult life is for Americans. Is there actually disconnect between being personally satisfied about one's life and things being done in Amerika for Americans, or are we translating by combining the Sudanese? Neither I think there is it disconnects Think kind of as Amelia and monitor we're sang people, resilient and and just like what it takes? Two to cope? You have to pay. Positive spin on things in and have hope for the future, and it requires kind of separate yourself out from the large our forces at work, even if those forces are largely negative. You know it's like that. Everybody's protagonist in their own movie right there

movie. You know you, you want to have a happy ending, but they're, not totally seven, right, like even these two questions, personal satisfaction and satisfaction with the direction, the country, the personal satisfaction line barely moves, but it move and iraqi moves in correlation with the satisfaction with the direction of the kind line, and even more than that. If you look below that top line for personal satisfaction, and get into the very satisfied. Somewhat it is fine if you break those out into two lines, Then you really see. There's actually, a contradiction, and in these two things I think you're just seeing people think the can, tree is a really bad spot people themselves are pretty resilient by they're not totally unrelated and and people's personal lives are affected by the bigger trends.

About this. A lot because when we first started having conversation about this pole and especially the way that the contrast that make a you were talking about was framed I'll be right. I was a little steam. I saw this at the personal satisfaction line, either. Really wasn't that much movement in it as Micah was saying it like goes up and down a little bit depending on how the country is doing that you looked like recession. Still, people are saying overwhelmingly status, satisfied in your personal life, so I can relate to that question. I was like okay. What is this actually telling us? Is this really telling us much of anything I do think There is media a better way to think about the way these two questions work together, which is that I think the political question can be a place where people projects some of that external dissatisfaction that they have their lives. So they might be thinking you now, things are no good. In my relationships like I still love my kids, I'm happy in my community.

the things around me and my everyday life as much It can be in a pandemic. You know, like things are difficult, but we're still certain move forward and coping in getting by finding joy and in the little things that make all our lives meaningful by things around you that are going wrong, you consider jack that answer, the larger countries and going the way I want So inflation is happening. Das. The country going about direct, my wages are matching inflation? That's the country going about direction and having we'll buying a house that something that's happening more broadly in the country So I think almost the way that the questions are worded. It kind of invites people to separate them it. About the more macro level problem,

that we're all experiencing as being something that has more to do with the direction of the country, then the things that are really personal to you and are sort of unique to your life. And there are probably more stable and more constant and also serve more fulfilling and nourishing Kaplan. I just said the word nourishing well how this should be. This is now a therapy park as efficiently I've decided. Galen comes back, it's just therapy but I think that distinction united to people who are like thinking about that when their entering the question, but the wording of the question can implicitly invite people to answer it that way, people also tend to when they look at outside forces. That may be bad. They also tend to underestimate the extent to which that will affect them in their futures and overestimate the likelihood of a positive outcome in there life, so they may be like well, its around, but I'm not gonna die of covered or I lost my job

I'm gonna find another job is called the optimism bias and actually leg. I think they're usually around eighty percent people at any given time have a kind of like unrealistically optimistic about their own lives, which may be a part of what that's picking her. You know it's just that, I'm gonna be ok. Maybe things are not exactly the where one right now about my life is fine and I'm gonna be ok and satisfied is also a pretty low bar. So you know there might be things in your lives tat. You think we'll get better down the road but you're, so pretty satisfied that there there now also, I think about that- is socially covered. It can be a healthy he psychological setting to be alive, optimistic about your future, but it also can become a dangerous if you underestimate risk. What's a famous tat that, like ninety five percent of Americans, think there have above average iq, it's like some

to your point here, that's interesting Monica because we ve done some work on the site about the eviction crisis. There was forecasts and never really came to be, at least according to the data, and why that might be in one of the finding that the searchers they were having efforts made was that people tend to be protected. Really nervous about financial outcomes sort of dread, tat they might not be able to afford for example, that maybe that's something more concrete as purchased happiness, or am I gonna, get sick and die right that Maybe there's something more than you do know your bank account and you do know what would it mean if, if you lost your job or something like that, I wanted asked you guys about what you take from this poll. When you combined with a conversation again had last week, I think was last week to week for the past about Maybe the real person, the real divide in America being between voters really give it

happen. Voters who don't care about the broader Americans, don't care about the broader things happening in size of super politically engaged voters people who are our more assertive just, might go about their lives and appreciate what they have the friends in the family- and I keep thinking about that conversation. When I see things like this, because I dont know what these these posts are meant to make politicians think watch it politicians be focusing on. If a vast majority of Americans really are says they with their life, but are worried about the direction country does it mean that the most successful policies might be things that make people even more appreciable, even more satisfied with their life as a Was to some of that part. in sniping about. You know the direction of the country in a super macro away. I think that split, Tween the super engaged and then not super engaged doesn't perfectly apply.

here, because I think of meal is reading of these two questions. Personal satisfaction and satisfaction with the direction of the country Amelia suggested reading, which is like the personal political and the political is personal, I think is right, which is like there's a biased for people to express optimism about their personal circumstances, but they're, probably sort of projecting sum of maybe pessimism about their personal situation into their national question. So, like I think, when we talk about to bring not to burn gauge politically Chad, we're talking about like people who are a lot of education. People follow that political news really closely, but in this case we ve seen this big dive in the share of people who are satisfied with the direction tree coinciding really with global pandemic, Global pandemic, I dont think, is something where what an

It may be. That would push but back on this, but I dont think that something that fits that super engaged not engaged split. I think that something that's touched. Everybody's lives in different ways right and there's a lot of people who have been like oak am. I do want to think about this anymore, but it still crosses that boundaries in in a broad sense. like none of these numbers should be really that surprising. I think the personal satisfaction question there are a couple buys he's at play there Monica mentioned about the optimism bias, just a bias of like not wanting to dump all your troubles on some stranger honour on the phone and then satisfaction with the direction the country there's been a goal, we'll pandemic like. Why would people be set aside rate so goes about other pulsar asked whether countries heading in the right direction, which have higher numbers in this, the scalpel and so south pole. From this

I found that thirty percent of Americans said that the country is headed in the right direction, which is significantly higher than the seventeen percent. Who said they were satisfied with the country in the Gallup Poll, and what do you guys think is the right way to ask this question? Is it to talk about satisfaction? Is it I doubt whether we're heading in the right direction, which is something that's future, looking an inherently what's the right way for pulsars to Sir look at the mood ring of Americans, basically, my right. Now is that I pollsters were, asking more about emotions and trying to get at these questions in different ways, because they think we have, with their sort of these, like stock trend, pull questions that we ve been talking about.

That places. A gallop had been tracking forever and there's a lot of value in that makes you can see how it changes over time, but I think in this moment, when it so hard to tease apart especially what people are upset about it's time to get a little bit more creative in the kinds of questions that people are asking to sort of put a finger on. Ok, people are pretty gloomy right now. Is that because we are in a global pandemic, is it because Congress and and the government seems to not really be working in the ways that people want? Is it because politics is really acrimonious? Is it because people's wages aren't rising? Something's, going on with the economy: are there other things that are going on in people's lives that are fuelling this? So I guess my answer to your question. How does like, I think, just more questions is good one of the things that

I found most frustrating about the gallop right up- was that it took two questions that really could be capturing a lot of different things and walked away with the conclusion that people are happier in their personal lives. are with the direction of the country, and that is actually, as you were saying, what I take away. Their politicians, for example, could make anything of and If you're a person who is actually trying to make Americans lives better, I dont know what you do with those questions. those questions or a starting point to ask more questions, not a solid I also always really curious about what people feel that they need about what's happening in the country right now, like what is actually being on their radars. What news are they picking up? What kind of actions from Washington They actually sort have no about and have opinions about before there asked about that. I also

all that, especially in this age of this kind of biometric data and news environment that some of the perceived you know what, happening in a country. Right now are just completely different for some people, verses, others. You know if you are getting about, whether by the administrations doing or what Washington is doing, can look very different and so on is too about sort of what that procedure reality. As for even ask how people feel about it, I grew at both a million Monica here and I think both her enters point to something important, which is like part of what is not great use, appalling about the gallop right up. Is they offer these two questions and they sort of assume or presuppose hey, there's some conflict here. What do each of these questions tell us and I think that the wrong approach. So I love emilius idea of asking people more about emotion,

but whatever you ask people and I were to ask him about their emotions- asked them, as Monica said about their understood ending of current events and and things that are affecting their lives? but whatever you ask them, and that includes the current slate of default. Poland questions. I think you have to take a holistic approach to then interpreting that data. I dont think you can look at one question and then the other and be like room. There's some discrepancy here. How can we explain that discrepancy? I think each question sort of like it's really giving you a very imperfect, very narrow view of the american psyche? And you have to use all the questions to peace, here and picture together, I mean there is no american psyche right, as Monica was saying, people have very different

experiences, have very different, just circumstances, and so the idea that have he'd have these two simple questions and and expect agreement there. I think it's just a wrong approached. Its incredibly located to try to painter. I was reading something over that we can actually that was Ike. There had the phrase, let's narrative eyes this, and it's really hard to narrative eyes public opinions just to its to come. It is up to all over the place, although again even gallop numbers in that personal life. Satisfaction gallop, crushing the share of people who very satisfied went from sixty five and twenty twenty to fifty one in twenty one and twenty twenty two so again its eye Even that simple question. I think we have seen a clear trend that matches the trend in the: U Dot S direction, but you need to ask all the questions and then throw them in them in a salad, bowl and mix them together.

Make a u tightened up to neatly at the end, I was gonna say like death to this now, take away that's our motto of five thirty, eight in a new, and then you brought in that stuff about the very satisfied trend, very disciplined while, like that, is a snap you take away here, at least in my view, this not be takeaway is YAP people dont, like pandemics. That's it does not protect once you get beyond the prize, nobody asked my boys. I once you get beyond them. Then death to the snappy take away, but you happy people online pandemics. I think we can show that with Poland, terrible word, narrative, ices horrible word Monica, but but to me as it does, I speak to an important dynamic in the media, which is like what story tat? Are we telling ourselves that reach that narrative level? That's a whole side conversation,

but I think that's another reason that what Monica was saying about getting the pulse of what people are actually perceiving around them is really important, because what you think is actually happening in your reality. Has a tonne to do with the narrative that you tell yourself about like why the country is going downhill or why your personal life is ok and we are living in a political moment where what people think the government is doing what's happening with the pandemic was held. with the economy. People actually have quite different perceptions of that, both based on their experiences and also what their hearing from politicians and with their hearing from the media. So I'm very for just asking more questions and poles that are like what do you actually think is happening around you and then adding that as a piece The analysis, because I think that could help us tease out a little bit more weight.

We are actually meaning when they say I'm happy with their country going in this direction or I'm not or I'm satisfied with my life because it's like what are you actually think is happening in the country. One is when you see happening in your own lesson: working night answer so totally agree and full disclosure. We may do some polling along these lines, but I do think we should include a particularly no one else. Do it's like yeah don't sit down at all, and I don't do that, but we should include a question that just like, What do you think is happening around you and acid and acid to ask it ghettos, urgency? tell them what you see. in some ways what I'm here you guys is described as a sort of it in version of what happens when we get cross taps the demographic like info of Paul, where we start with the one unit, I question and then we try and interpret well, if black Americans this or younger generation. Americans thought that and that the different reality that their living, but were you

But here he proposes sort of making that explicit on the front end, and even that makes the cross over the all. The different answers on mass rikers you'll have all these sort of fractured pathways that that go. There will still get closer to the truth, because understand the baseline of what people think that work. Now, urging the different realities before even the Bane question gets aspen quote were creating new demographics. If you will instead of saying this summer, because a rule voter we're saying this demographic are our voters who think that the election was stolen and that that creates the domino effect that creates more insight from whatever the actual policies, so maybe what we really need do as vibrate is create. New demographic standard bearers. That could help as understand how to talk about the different

only that Americans are living so of course, lock. Americans are living, differ reality than why Americans, in other ways that we discuss it on this punk ass, an and beyond. But what is it they actual concrete world view is that that could maybe help teeth, the that super interests, I'm just trying to think like what. Let's call it perception: demographics, perceptual, it's like reality, demographic time, that's what we're doing reality will be lost. Reality: demographics, but I'm just trying to allow these stories which our dilemma as explanatory groupings would be more powerful than demographic demographics, then, education and race. Then urban rural. I guess what I wouldn't with more people were doing, mica is kind of, like stress, testing, that assumption and looking you're asking some of these questions about perceptions and quality and worldview, and seeing do they line up with

demographic categories that were using, because it might be that there is actually a lot of overlap in these questions and to be clear, I sort of heat polls that try to space and dies the electorate different ways in their wake. These are a muddle. Moderate. Send you to come up with a cash phrases that are actually now that helpful because link you know, if you do a pull like this, you can find did I people into any group that you want basically just like, depending on how the questions are asked self. I don't always think it's more helpful to find new categories, and sometimes I think, that's more revealing of the kind of biases if the people who are in lies in the data but I think it is helpful to do some of these kind of reality, checks and especially at a moment when it does seem like different parts of the country, actually do have very different perceptions of reality that other parts of the country, like my colleague, Cayley Rogers, has done so much for you.

Learning about the big lie just seeing how those line up at the categories were using is important. You know what a great example of this is that already exist and that I think we're actually have we bring about before we have an upcoming article about. Is this Poland question of light. people perceive there is racial discrimination against white people, which is incredibly powerful indicator of sort of wearing you stand whether you perceive there is, for example, more racial discrimination against white people than other racial groups. Explains all your other political views but which I think is an example of kind of these. I don't have that lived reality, but per se reality. Ok, we're move on, but listeners. If you have ideas for a large ease that we should now get the world email. Podcast factory tat come tweet a gallon flood MIKE it's mentions. Let's make it happened right, so, let's

Leave it there for now and move on to talk that state budgets, but first this week's politics pockets is brought. You buy room with real you can buy a car in Tireli online and have it delivered straight to you, so you never have to go to dealership again. You know what it's like you going to buy a car you, therefore hours on end of life vehicles going over particularly the sales rep and ultimately you walk away because it just doesn't feel right. So, instead of going to dealership just by car from home when you're out for a walk in the park or even ass, she listened this podcast literally anywhere with room. You can browse thousands of cars in one place. You don't have to spend your weekend driving out to a million different dealerships when you on broom dot com, you never have to haggle or negotiate the price of a car, and when you sell your car on broom, either price instantly, so don't not to waste time at a dealership or deal with leaky buyers.

Room is entirely online. So next time you need to buy a car just grab your phone good of room, dot com and check out thousands of great cars room as dependent rage in the spring of twenty. Twenty politicians warned that states, red real risk of going broke, businesses shutting down the likely loss of tax revenue and states were spent. A significant amount of money on public health and economic measures in response to partition passed several keep plans, and now two years on states are flooded with cash and that cash just as likely change. Americans lies anything that the federal government might by directly The cash has been approved by the Governor Courson and then added down the state governments, and we won't talk about what states are spending on, and whether the right shaping our politics or just for during the same old status quo. America in You ve done a lot of reporting on this for the site in the last few weeks, and I was wondering, you found when you're going at it. Yes, the money

the american Rescue plan sent out to states was pretty. There were some rules around it, but it was still pretty broad states could use it for revenue replacement, they could use, it touched we're up their unemployment, insurance trust funds and they could use it for infrastructure projects, and then they also produce a to address some of the things that happened during the pandemic and they could use it to solve the problem. Caused by covered, and so it was pretty just broadly laid out. in a lot of instances, states could decide what that met for them. You know what the people in their states needed after coverage so most states used some of the money for revenue replacement. If they could, there is a formulated that determined if they get most of them had some into their unemployment, insurance, trust funds and most of them used it for some time infrastructure project, whether that was broadband watering sewer, which is one of the big,

categories laid out by the act or they used it for other infrastructure projects, so, like Florida had a highway project that was ongoing and used some of the money to help build those highways and a lot of the ways that states spent money didn't really breakdown along expected, partisan lions, almost all the states use the money, even states who, in previous bills, had rejected federal money like for the extension of medicate when the affordable care out past a most. It took the money, and found ways to spend it so far. Also the ways that states decided to spend money varied, so some saves decided there governor could laid out in their budget proposals. Some states decided that the legislature should decide. Some states decided that the legislature, should create a steering committee and let nonprofits apply for money through grants. So oh, those needs of their population is determined even very state, by state I wanna get out, reddish are far because a million you e report,

the warnings about that in TWAIN, twenty, but Roca Quantico. You mentioned that most took the money and I'm wondering from all of you. Why do you think the politics of taking money in this moment, state level against it, different than it was with the medical expansion during Obamacare. The mechanics of it don't seem, d different. To me, I mean that person by just a sharp, if not more so now than it was in two thousand, but ten or eleven when, when affordable care, ACT passed? And so what is it about the pen? I guess the pandemic that gave republican governors cover take the money. First of all, they had a lot of flexibility as to how to spend the money, but also they had to shut down their states so They sort of like that, wasn't your fault. The federal government wanted to control the pandemic, and so they had to put a halt to a lot of economic actors. De, and so it was sort of a forced recession, and so I think that did cannot change the politics a little bit about how to recover from that in a way that

Sort of a different kind of recession might not have had the same response MIKE You have a sense of how aware people are that this money was even given to the states, because my sense was kind of people, I think, are broadly aware what are definitely broadly, where things like the stimulus payments, because those went into their bank accounts. but there was so much tension to what was happening with the affordable care act and the affordable correct with such a lightning rod that I think medicate expansion with something that like whether people were talking about it. In those terms that was- very partisan, in a way that I think this money hasn't been in part because people just kind of our fanning the flames of taking this man am I wrong about that? so I think people are really aware that people knew that they got a third stimulus when this bill pass, like he said, but I'm not sure that people knew all that was in that american Rescue plan out, which was huge, and

I brought a lot of money, went to school districts directly, a lot of money when tooth these and local governments directly and That is those county governments and those school districts had a lot of extra costs and a lot of reduced revenue in different situations, and so I really think people felt like it serve made up for a whole. it was caused by the pandemic, and so I dont see situations where people are rolling around the money one way or another. We say that, but the american Rescue plan was passed on very partisan. I think only two Republicans now spoke for it. No rebellion centres voted for it, so the act of approving the money was very partisan and so I hear you really about that- there were baby- was less attention brought the money, but isn't that a little bit the choice that politicians get to make right up? what to bring attention to, and so why is it that, despite opposition on the front end

it has not been ongoing pressure once the money was actually approved. Alive. Those Republicans, despite voting against the individual stimulus payments, were then out there pretty immediately taken credit for so, I think there is a sense- and this is something that I It's so fascinating kind of underlies Monica article, even though the act of taking government money is very political. When you talk about it that way when there is external circumstance that sort of justifies it like a global pandemic, We want this kind of happy to take the money. The stimulus was popular: the states are taking the money in spending it wonder if another thing that differentiates this from medicate expansion is medical expansion benefited a specific group of people who work getting medicated and then would be covered under it.

Infrastructure, individual stimulus payments, the sort of the big ticket stuff? Like my for school districts? Those are things that you Just kind of cell as like? This is a benefit to the community and we had a great piece on the site last, week. I think by our Samuels and Neil Louis exploring how Americans Both sides of the I'll just have a lot of trouble kind of just giving benefits to specific groups of poorer and marginalized people specific we and it's just much easier to solar, say like ok, we're gonna. Do this thing that benefit benefits everyone or benefit schoolchildren are benefits, is gonna big groups of people wearing More targeted aid tends to be more honey, virtual and obviously the words very targeted aid in this funding, but it was

her down through so many different groups of people that, like by the time it gets to a food bank. I think it's just like you know: that's not politically meaningful when you get to the point that things are filter down to local communities. Also, there is a disconnect about where that money came from and who determine towel. Gonna be spent late during the pandemic. You know the area I in is extremely rule, they USDA which monitors the school lunch programme waved rule about allowing kids to take food off school campuses, and so a lot of local schools instituted programmes where they could pass out package lunches. Two kids on their bus routes, and so that's what they did and everybody was like. Look at how great the schools are. Look it look at our local schools care so much about the community- and that is true- they do said all of that- is kind of a federal initiative. But it's not like people say,

the federal government at this? They say. Oh look at our local bus drivers. We love them so much, which is totally fine. It's just the way they people process information. It's like the opposite of shooting the messenger. Specific messenger and you ignore the actual source. So, first of all, I think the politics of The mere less money have changed a bit over the past. Ten years or so. Where feels like, for example, once covert head, the Tropic Menstruation and Republicans in Congress signed up first stimulus money much more quickly than they did during the great recession. So I think things shifted a little bit there. Now they ve then stopped doing that a special months Biden got into Office republicans have mostly voted against us. That's emulous money, but the part of merely mentioned about. How is the money messaged? How much is it targets?

said. I think it is really important and and kind of speaks that piece Alex in Europe, where maybe it leads to better outcomes. If you're trying to help marginalized groups, you sort of have to just Like Hey States, here's a shitload of money do with it what you will as Monica was saying earlier. The states have spent a good deal of it on unemployment, for example, unemployment, insurance and similar social safety net programmes. Now they have also spent some of it on like Alabama built a couple prisons right. Monica Like others, I too, yeah there's a bunch of there's stuff in there. But if you're trying to get money to pee, who need a given that current politics of our country, maybe that's the way you have to do it so that that money can't be essentially demagogue and racial lies in that way where it's like this money is going to those people and then support for it,

lapses may be true, and some in some spending categories like to the extent with water and sewage infrastructure. To the extent that some communities did more infrastructure improvement than others. Daniel see some sort of you'll see in a more benefits from community for communities that needed it more than others. But I will also say that some of the decisions made by states were sort of against the federal government's priorities, and so, like a lot of states led by republican governors, they ended the enhanced unemployment programmes. Early Arkansas did The home did and Oklahoma is one of the states that also had a back to work bonus in the summer and some of those states did not have vaccine mandates for employers, and so you did have a situation in the summer during the delta surge, where a lot of people simultaneous he lost their enhanced unemployment or their unemployment altogether, because they ve timed out had to go back to work.

where incentivize to go back to work and were not send device to get vaccinated. So if the goal of the federal government was to sort of control depend, make and recover from an there. Weren't really in essence to make sure that that's exactly how states used all of the money, so Amelia twenty? You wrote about the coming rather, Apocalypse that governor's feared where the shutdowns would really limit the tax revenue available to them. and now here we are going to a mid term year. Where there a lot more money, and around and as a result, maybe we might see campaign promises that are more ambitious, or at least or evil in their ambition than the maybe otherwise, and I'm wondering eyes, you look back on the work that you did two years prior and, as you thought about things like expiring, child tax credits and expiring benefit programmes that there were passing a pandemic. What can we learn now, given the way this money is affecting state government and stay politics that maybe we could it no two years prior when we didn't know how this would turn out.

it's so interesting to go back and look at that peace that I wrote two years ago, because, basically, when I was trying to experts in state politics and then also people who to study the very exciting realm of state news and budgets. There was a real fear that we were going to be heading for essentially a repeat of the great recession where there was a lot of aid to the states. Tax revenues fell all states raise taxes. They cut back a tonne on things like higher education and when that happens it kind of prolonged economic downturn meagre in because you know kind of makes sense. Intuitively estates are raising taxes than people have less money to spend on things and if they are

cutting down on education than teachers are getting fired, and it was something that contributed to what we saw in the last recession, which has just as very slow grinding recovery and states had really only just gotten back to their pre recession normal by the time the pandemic here, and so there was a real fear that you know this was gonna hit at a point where seats already hadn't been investing in things like infrastructure at the level that they would have been for the past ten, errors and education had already really been cut back. So you know you're going to look at the budget anymore, like Jesus. We have to cut more weird, we cut and a lot of that ends up not have having happened for a couple of reasons I mean, One of them is that the lesson learned from that recession seems to have translated to policy

and they didn't give a lot more money to states, and so that's interesting to see the way that people looked back at what happened in two thousand and adjust Another thing is just that this was an incredibly weird recession, because it wasn't one that was caused by economic conditions, obviously was caused by the pandemic, and it was incredibly uneven and sustain. Tax revenues didn't fall. The way that a lot of people thought they would at least income tax revenues. Because the people who were losing their jobs were low wage workers. So the higher income workers were still paying income tax and state tax revenues didn't take the hit that they thought they would, and you know, we've had all these supply chain issues. The people have still been out spending money for the past year, so sales taxes aren't taken to hit that. I think a lot of people expected when we saw the whole economy

down, so you can find those two things and were in a situation where states really are in dire condition that they were into now than it or that a lot of people were fearing two years ago, and I do think it raises interesting questions about what happens when you have more benefits. Basically, something like the child tax credit is a good example. I think I'm people were getting three hundred dollars. Martin's for a period of time. They had cancer preach kid, and then you take them away, and so I think, with state spending more money on infrastructure. You know people not getting that money in there account. It'll it'll just be

there's nothing to see what happens when we actually do flood all this money into the economy and the government also start spending more money on social services and then that money dries up the money the states have is an infinite. Will people will be mad about it? I don't know, I think something with the child task credit, that's love or direct. You sit down in your bank account than something like you know. Maybe local food banks don't have as much money unlike Monaco sailor Latrice that back up to the federal government, I don't think so so real quick before we move on to the next. Second, you think this will have any impact on the midterms. If the states were less flush with cash, would the political outlook be four incumbent governors, for example, or is this sort of so diffuse that it doesn't quite matter in the same way yeah, don't over matters. In the same way, I don't know people will connect like their governors, actions to the recovery or clean other local politicians, actions to the recovery in the way that you might expect. I do think inflation is the thing, that's wing

people the most right now it's what they feel in a very visible away when they get gas or go to the store, and so even if your state has a balanced budget and its funding all these programmes that help you might not necessarily think the economy is doing great, because you're paying more in a way that you can visually c on your receipts read it so diffuse ended so disconnected from people's everyday lives, these kinds of decisions, and always there- and in that respect I guess the money being put into the become you might affect things, but mainly perhaps through infant inflation, the pudding connection there is there? Ok, so let's leave it there and move on to our final segment of the day, but first over the weekend. Europe's slipped ever closer towards war. As russian President Vladimir Putin sent russian troops into two ukrainian territories, outside observers, see this as a pretext for a further military incursion on ukrainian sovereign.

He and western sanctions against Russia have already begun as a record on Tuesday is unclear what happens next, but part of what may determined leaders actions. It is what their constituents thinks. Let's discuss where things stand now, so CBS News and you got Paul asking when it comes negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The? U S should that that either stay out support Ukraine or support Russia. This is done by women about We can have a go on unfair, eleventh earnest, Mackay, and so did the three percent of American said the Euro should stay out. Forty three percent said that America should support Ukraine and four percent said support Russia, anything surprising. For you guys, there is answer to worry, expected the breakdown to come I think, generally speaking, opinion on until the U S,

Bob met an Ukraine has broken down. Basically like we would expect. The currently right, like public opinion about me, who S. Intervention overseas has just begun Far more aunt, I interventionist over the past team twenty years than it used to be to the point where you see in most of these pulling Shensi options are like most poles are, not really asking about: U S: military involvement, proper they're, asking about sending weapons to Ukraine they're asking about sanctions right. I just think the last two decades, the? U S public, the UN, has shifted way to the left on foreign intervention, and it's it's not hard to find reasons. Why, right you look at Iraqi. Forget you look at it. Amistad so wariness spot. Now, where I think the bite in administration and look, I'm not a foreign policy experts have please please, please keep that cover in mind, but

The Bush administration, the american people, Ukraine, NATO, all ethically know, there's a hard line around what the? U S is likely to do here. And that hard line well sure of boots on the ground in any large numbers, etc, etc. So I think public opinion. Has you know, that's exactly what I thought it would be. Of course, I struggled a little bit with public opinion on the ukrainian crisis in a lot of the way that I struggle with public opinion polls on foreign policy generally, because people to stone pay as much attention to it, and so I think it can be

harder to know what people think? The question actually is- and I think that ties into to what you were saying my gown, which is that there does seem to have been much more of an anti interventionist shift among the american people over all when it comes to foreign com, flights, but I'm not sure I can necessarily tell from these questions that I understand what the american people want the bite demonstration to do, and I think in fact, a lot of people would not really an opinion about knowing whether weapons get sent to a particular place, what sort of stand by the administration to taken negotiations doesn't Tricky things about these questions is that with diplomacy, it so technical, it's hard to ask people to come down, one side or the other. And so when I see something like the magician Americans say that the euro should stay out

negotiations between Russia and Ukraine at DAWN, really know what to make of that, because I'm not sure this fifty three percent are actually saying stay out of deplore. See or are they sang stay out of getting U S more tangibly involved most. too complicated of a subject to expect everyday Americans to have like sophisticated The other thing, though, is to your point. Amelia. If you look at the pole, It's not really consistent. I think the body duration know that it's an end no win situation, but I think it's a very tough situation for the bad administration politically. Obviously, there are far more important concerns and like the political ramifications in the

as of this, but I think people probably generally are supportive of standing up to Russia, whatever. That means- and it's important that that's vague and people support the vague concept there, but I dont think the american people will support, or at least say they support steps that would actually constrain Russia. I dont think really they support much beyond sanctions, and so then, if and AIDS, Ukraine, and I think the binding administration will suffer politically for that, even though the american people likely a majority didn't want bite in to really do anything to private yeah, scarcely people dont know what to do and also its needs. No surprise. I think that people very war, weary and into about sign. These poles now are probably picking up people who, through their hold her entire lives, while America's been at war for the most part they in Afghanistan and Iraq. I

little bit about the situation as I did about Syria, which was that at the time, which is that something that very bad is happening, and I have no idea what role America should play in this, and there are all these very smart people, all saying opposite things and I'm sure people who pay less attention to international news for worse about it are less certain about it at tat point I thought that same feeling, so I think this is often a framed in cold war terms that it's the west off against Russia and obviously there big problems with that framing, because this is really about the sovereignty of a country, Ukraine, but I would imagine that people who did not live through the cold war are going. see this very differently than people did live through the Cold war and that some of the language and views toward and leading fears of russian aggression. It's just gonna get a press different buttons for people depending on the historical experience they haven't

historical memory and I'm sure that that is tied up in some of these questions in a way that again is very hard to tease out from sort about a surface level assessment One sure enough familiar an economist. You got half of Americans forty five or older, viewed Russia. As an enemy of the: U S so essentially some remnant of the cold war in their lifespan, maybe when their kids, while only a quarter, so about half that of those under Forty five said that Russia, with an enemy U s a? U seize him! The generational breakdown, potentially there as well. What I'm here, you guys age, which I think is interesting as their sort of a paradox of how much public opinion african tell us about this, might get you point out that the drift away from interventionism is really significant politicians, they are willing to cross the line any longer in part because of the reaction of the american people are. Obviously events have conspired to do that. However, with the granularity of what to do about

sir situation once you take that as a picture either as a border, but you can do, then you have something where maybe the publican doesn't tell us as much beyond those broad outlines that's really interesting, I don't think the bite. Menstruation as they're, trying to figure out what to do is like looking at public opinion polls. Really, I very much doubt that I mean their political people are I'm sure right, but in terms of like the people actually figuring out, what are we gonna do here? I don't think there. There are looking a pause and I think, like foreign policy generally speaking short of war doesn't have it of sale, ants in terms of american vote choice, and so it just it's less of a factor here and in an administration decisionmaking. But your point chat about or you're, referring to my point about the shift in the over TIM Window of like what possible here does not come strictly.

public opinion it took at present, because the public opinion shifted because a real world event, so it's possible. Maybe the political actors have just learned our lesson. I should this morning I was trying to good? Like? U S, foreign interventions, that in retrospect, you would just declare successful and that's pretty challenging? Actually so maybe it's just like we ve reached a point where we have a better grasp of how useful those type of military interventions are, or maybe public. the union has shifted and by demonstration you now is constrained by that or probably above three. This goes beyond the amount, I may have some more expertise, but it is also the case your war has changed over the last several decades and the operation Osama Bin Laden happened within Pakistan's borders and violated threat. They back than sovereignty, but we don't think of it. That way is a much more targeted. Strikin was within abroad,

war, effort right, and so I think there are certain military operations that people would say were successful in retrospect, but maybe not fill out invasions or wars that have maybe that's the that, as those have more significant sale. Since a varied from arbitrary May, do that one of the interesting things about the political response to the Ukraine crisis any in the? U? S has been that there's been a sort of weird by frustration between Republicans where in previous not too far away times, you would have expected Republicans to sailing. Yes, this is a russian incursion on another country sovereignty and we need to do something about it, but we ve seen some Republicans him. If some people it took her Karlsson on the re saying you know no, let me Russia not so bad, and you know how easily that comes after years of Trump saying all kinds of agile authority. Is that a word like Trump praising Putin? So I do think that the polish

ex specifically around Russia have also changed in interesting ways, and I think, if we're talking about how public opinion affects the way politicians respond, those people are not me, in decision making role, so I think it's a little bit easier for them to say like oh, you know, people perceiving this differently or their shaping the way people are receiving at minutes all kind of a loop by. I think, among Republicans, it's been easier to frame this a little more in terms of public opinion does because there get onto the bite administration as the ones that will dealing with us at this point, and Republicans can just kind of react and they're, not but on the hook for figuring out what actually deal Angela Tory feels like more work than their devising forthwith. I think it breaks at every shape attitude, fits the narrative rising is annoying word because that what it means as an annoying process too, is absolutely, and yet, if the thing that the media dies every day:

no exact our jobs and annoying listening. Is there a word for like Ottoman appear, but from meaning or is it just onomatopoeia, I think you're, describing what unimpeded slowed in my brain a little bit and then I was like why, because that's what the hits using that near dividing is annoying. Therefore, the definition that is to be annoying, because revising sounds annoying. Yet I, if a word folks, the same feeling that the definition of that word evokes is our word for that, so like splash is Anima away. Yes, now? revising, is not an amount of work in that way. You're talking about what it means Fires, the mooded inspire ejaculated, the sound exactly I'm not to let this out feel like there's a word for the opposite when a word,

A word sounds: doesn't match up with its meaning like bucolic, which, unlike a disease that means like pass, I will have to decide by a cost fill it there's a word to describe that disconnect when work sound, not like what they mean. so we need that number just put an anti in front of it. Had the opposite. I like that in gallons absence we have decided that this package will now be part therapy and part listener. He's gonna, be I love these conversations. Listen it's just fun narrative. I journalist, beggar yeah, should work with words. Our devising is a annoying pretentious word for an annoying, pretentious process its way, you have brought to us like us, so we you have brought us this ninety tonnes and brought it up repeatedly over and over again now, which has also perfect. I left for you.

There are now that we're not after a time of how and that's the show, thanks guys Bert for Chat and my good for bringing so many new. Terms and and words to us this afternoon, great job hosting tat. Thank you so much put in my performance review, Amelia. Thank you for chat and say Jan and Monica. We have you on again so soon and think so much for by thinking my name is Chebec Matlin Ciao it's in the virtual control room Clare, but again, for this is on a new heading and Emily Vanessa III is our enter get in touch by e mailing us at pot cast at either the eight hour calm. We want here those our these send a man. You can also, of course, tweet at Galen with questions or comments. Leave me out of it, though, and if your found a show leaves a rating or view in deep a cast out of your choice spot. If I has refused now they have stars, but no actual reviews to just give us the star,

or tell someone about a set of even more to help. People discover the show thanks for listening. And we will see you soon came back. That's weak Her