I asked on Twitter the other day what the most versatile salad increasing that was good Nate responded by saying, let us Welcome to the five thirty politics. Yes, my name is Jody African. Perhaps you've noticed that there's a lot of news out there, a lot of news directs. Going to narrow it way down today and spend basically the whole show on one story and one question: the state of the Russia Investigation and a big question. It seems to be kind of the question of the moment. What would happen if Donald Trump fired Robert Muller here today, sure that question not right now. This is just the intro, so here technically to say hello, energy it's over one hello and he did it. He really brought it Clare Malone. Can you

to that billing, because there's already exasperated that's politics, particle Malone and politics. Editor MIKE A is here, hello, everybody see, we got two great natural hollows, One other note at the end of the show, we're going to do a quick primer on the Illinois Third District primary which is taking place tomorrow because well, we think it's interesting an because we can go from big, think stuff about Robert Mueller now the stuff about the Illinois. Third district primary- that's that's our show, but this question trump smaller. It's very much on the mind, probably for good reason. So, let's just lay out what happened over the last few days. That has was thinking about this. You guys I've been help me if, if I missed anything starting on, attorney General Jeff sessions fired former FBI, deputy director Andrew Mccabe, based on a recommendation from the FBI disciplinary office. They found misconduct by Mccabe related to a conversation with a reporter. We can get into that if we'd like

but people also see Mccabe as an ally, James Comey and he's been under attack by the president for a long time, so that set off a lot of mother Russia ALARM bells. Then we, early Saturday morning, Donald Trump's lawyer, John Dowd told reporters that Malish probe should probably end, and he pointed to the Mccabe firing as evidence that the whole thing is tainted and then the tweeting started, I'm not read all the tweets, but on Sunday, Trump tweeted about Mccabe and mother, which I think was the first time he's actually mentioned Muller by name in a tweet. Is that right? I mean not counting retweets, oh, is that right. Love said: that's become a thing by the way where everyone is like it's. The first documented instance of him. Knowing who is right is fairly, although he knew who is, but nevertheless those particular letters appeared in a trump. What do you call a natural tweet versus sweet and natural and original tweet, a tweet, a tweet manual retweet anyway.

Read one of these original tweets penned by one at Realdonaldtrump. There were others, but this one seems to really be the one that's kind of land where we are right now quote the mother probe, I've never been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. It was based on fraudulent activities and a fake dassier capital, F capital D paid for by Crooked hill, capital, C, capital h and the Dnc, and properly used in FISA Court for surveillance of Campaign which exclamation point So there is a lot going on there. The other sentence is a bit more complicated than the sentences and Trump's tweets usually are the The probe should have never been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. Yes and pretty straight. So you think you think one of the attorneys poses. Writing these tweets. Oh in that there was, he did go to Penn. He did not true. He does have a great brain

and she said that was this. One thing is a very stable genius, God wow I had not. I kind of glazed over or glanced over, in that there was that's a very freaking funny. Struction. That sounds very lawyerly. That's what that's but I said I I'm agreeing with you: ok we're starting on the right foot this time yeah. This is great, enjoy this in that there was wow. So let me, ask Claire, you can jump in on this with them and I think it's worth asking. Why is there this flurry two vt and wind up right now. Well, who knows? But I think this idea that Trump wants to get the Muller investigation over and done with. He wants to. He wants to be finished with that ever things like that's what Trump really wants and that he has had a lot of people around him. That have said. Listen like let's, let's

and back here, let's not maybe say things in the public eye that suggests that we want to get rid of the mind investigation. Perhaps the fact that he's had a lot of people leaving the White House maybe has something to do with Trump feels sort of. I don't know psychologically freed to do what he wants to you know, to put it all out there, and perhaps that is why he has kind of directed his legal team to be a bit more offensive. Say: listen, the smaller probe needs to stop in terms of those things I just listed firing Mccabe. Find out saying this thing needs to wrap and then Trump going on this sort of tweet storm which of those feel like biggest setting some alarm bells to you. Might. Oh, that's interesting,

preferred the bluesy mix que? I think the Mccabe thing is more. It shows like a certain premeditation of them. Thinking like okay, you know. Yes, Mccabe is going to be a primary witness in the mall or investigation. Then it would be good for us to Sally Mccabe's reputation. That sort of thing- I don't know, I obviously like the lawyer- thinks- is striking, but I think the Mccabe thing has been it's sort of months, laying the groundwork for something to finally haven't known that that campaign is definitely happening. The campaign to like to sell a Mccabe's ma'am, I guess my question- is: I still think, there's a chance that the Mccabe firing is MIKE is weird and might be a result of a campaign to is either a direct or indirect result of the campaign to discredit him and that matter, so direct means they just were trying to get him out. As

they got him out on funds a flimsy pretext. It could also be indirect, though, in the sense that maybe Mccain A was less than forthcoming yeah and maybe the Mccabe thing isn't that big of a deal I'm, I don't know it's weird stuff just to clarify for listeners- is that the report by the disciplinary committee at the F b I recommending that the k be fired. It's not public, so we don't know the details. The details at the, although Mccabe has said it's based on a misunderstanding. He went. He went back and corrected the record on something after I'd session of questioning, and that is where the failure to be forthcoming, sort of a slap on the wrist and recommend the fire is coming from, so it's a little bit, it's still murky yeah, but it's being spun politically, which is our total yeah. So, in terms of you know where we stand right now, Nate today versus say a week ago. Do you think that it's more likely

Trump will fire Robert Muller. Now does everyone. You know yes, yeah, I'm kind of agree and mean how much and so whatever neat scale you want to measure. How much has your kind of like our sensors gone up in terms of this being a possibility. We'll talk about the effect afterwards. I was joking that we should use like a. The the bear like fire danger sign. If you like, a Bob Miller's fire danger sign I think we go to like we're at severe danger stage on the smoke scale there's like severe- actually like only like the fourth highest stages like extreme and likes. Extreme, and like oh, my gosh you're on fire right now, turn up is a pretty transparent thinker. Ok, so his head spaces, like I really don't like what this guy is doing. I feel like this is unfair, like there's no deeper, strategy or trick there. I don't think right, however, a little bit of a southern drawl in your trump impersonation there. I wasn't

Oh I see ok. Southern Donald Trump is a weird, but Trump I think, does recognize on some level like when something has like serious serious consequences versus somewhat serious consequences that doesn't mean necessarily has a lot of restraint on occasionally doing like the super serious thing, but I feel like it's just It's obvious he's using my Lord by name. His lawyer is building a case right Miller should be fired, he's some of the moderating influences in the White House have been lost, so the people who who might be moderating he can't really trust anymore, doesn't trust anymore. I mean I just don't see that many constraints on him, apart from him having some deeper sense, get me in a lot of trouble but like, but I don't know, I don't think he's kinda wants to do it like You do it once already know what I'm saying is like in one it's just like we just kind of like. I don't know what would happen if I press that button, like maybe something

it's like. I don't like that's what's what's that social psychology experiment where they put the kid in front of the cupcake and there like you, can either eat a cupcake now or you can wait five minutes, I'm going to second cupcake. So right now, one of the big constraints on like, firing Muller is that it takes a lot of steps to do it right. It's not clear the order of operations for how you actually do it, you probably have to fire rose sign first or you know, and then go down the food chain as Nixon kind of did. If you fire Jeff Sessions, though appoint someone who is a not that Jeff Sessions is exactly free of Trump's influence right, but he recused himself that have a lot easier than just call the attorney general and although you know I'm not enough of a legal scholar to know if there are no implications at all. But if you fire Jeff Sessions, that's when you go from smokey the bear severe to extreme, danger, maybe should be talking about that. Do you about fine Jeff sessions? Yeah. Do you guys think if Trump,

smaller. Will it be out of a fit of Pique or will it be strategic? I think out of a fit of Pique, but the thing about Trump is that, like those two things are not mutually exclusive, exactly it's kind of like, like, I don't think he's the sharpest like long term strategic thinker necessarily, but he could decide that low. I'm in trouble. So let's build a case for higher retrofit. Can I track again? There were stories there were stories last week that Trump was talking about moving Prue it from EPA to replace sessions at Doj, so it. So it would do it, of course, produced by the conduit through through I mean, prove it is one of the most effective cabinet members for sort of dismantling. Or what do you call it sort of castrating agency, but nothing worked

I want to go for something stronger want to put you on edge, but I think I think that's. I think, that's interesting that an actual factual person has been floated to replace sessions. The same thing happened with Tillerson, so just something food, so, there is a name out there, yeah I'm. So let's move a little bit into imagining. You know what would happen if Trump five Muller and we can start to paint a picture, maybe go group by group and think about how he may react to these- the will talk about the public, then we'll talk about the GOP and then we'll talk about Democrats. So it could you wanna just laid out, like kind of what is the state of how the public feels about the Russia Investigation right now and Robert Muller and and so forth, people Are you know it's as you would expect? Overall polarizing people are polarized by part on whether the Russia investigation matters, most people haven't

and then on Miller, but a sizeable men minority about forty percent court in most polls have never heard of him. So it's still pretty unformed and then once you get beyond the kind of general partisan split on Russia, you find that healthy majorities have faith that mothers running a fair investigation among those who have an opinion right, and I think you should be able, to finish it so overall, I think the point is sort of that Russia, as an issue, is still polarizing and as partisan the more you get into the details, at least at this point, public opinion is on Muller side right, it's get. The difference is a lot of. I think it kind of comes down to the difference between. Do you think Trump colluded with Russia?

verses mode. You might have done something wrong when he fired com. This is a life. Exactly right is more sophisticated version of what voters are, I think parsing through, which is what most people I think are kind of like I don't know if Donald Trump colluded with Russia, maybe they're trying to like you influence him but whatever, but then people are also like. I don't know he for the FBI director. That seems bad. Therefore, Muller should be able to pursue his investigation and go through with it, and people would be alarmed if he wasn't allowed to continue. I wonder how many of the forty percent, who don't know who Miller is know who Mueller is instead like just a bit taken. The poster has just mispronouncing it all along. I wonder how many people would confuse Robert Muller with the lawyer from law and order. Special victims unit is at the same name now, but they

They look like most people, the vast majority of people. Seventy percent, according to Maris, Think Moeller should be allowed to finish his investigation. Just fourteen percent said he should be fired. So if you look at it it's sort of like if Trump goes in extreme route, the more extreme than less likely, I think public opinion will be on the side. The other thing I would just point out, though, is again going to the back to that. Forty percent of people haven't heard of mother, there's a big group of Americans who haven't made up their mind on this stuff, because there is a lot of that's right, there's! No, there's no yeah! There's no real! You know we we all know that the investigation is unfolding? You get like drips and drabs of of their speeding, the Trump company things like that, but yeah. We have no conclusions and I think you're right that the american public is being smart about this, like it's kind of like we don't have to so so- would firing Muller than be a big clarify a moment that would, I guess but now I have to beat me, but if

So what is the worst? Let let's wake up. I mean I think, there's too much like, but it doesn't have a public reacts. Do you think you would then push a lot of these people, who kind of don't have an opinion off the fence? speak. I mean: how would that play out from the we're not talking about a huge fraction of people? But look people don't know that much you want to be like the counter puncher right, where, if it looks like the situation is continuing on for a long time and there is some threads, but there we've together and Trump, and I start to complain about. Hey has lived up to the billing, like that, might sway a few people but if you fire the guy conducting the investigation, I mean look one of the few things are two things that had a big negative effect on Trump's approval rating, one of which was when it gets back to health care bill and the other which was firing coming that hey three or four points downward swing, which, in this era is, is a lot. I guess we're live things with swinging by one point or something right. People who are on the fence about it. My sympathetic to Trump or not will come off the fence of Miller

is fired, NBA, catalyzing event, for there would be a public outcry, yeah you've got polls showing, I think, sixty five. Seventy percent of people oppose the move. I think I think support would probably increase from where it is now so right now, fourteen percent say it's okay to fire Muller. You know once Trump doesn't baby that increases to twenty five percent up like that, but the vast you know I think polls which are the vast majority of people. Almost all Democrats, Austin, the pendant and maybe like you know, Republicans, are split. I think yeah I was gonna say I wish we had pulled so in our most recent iteration of the real didn't trump pulling that we did. We didn't specifically ask about Muller

fire you should of us. We should have access to the great, but we did I mean one thing that sort of I think gets to how these reluctant trump voters feel as we ask people how seriously they would consider it if Muller determines the president obstructed. Justice Bein interfere with the investigation to his campaigns, contacts with the russian government officials, and so seventy three percent of Americans had very serious. Sixty four percent of religion. Jumper said yes, it would be serious and only forty four percent of other Trump voters felt the same way. So I think reluctant Trump voters are more on the side of the majority of the american public, where they're saying like yeah. This is a thing that we is

Sirius and we're talking about rule of law, and that needs to kind of continue, and I would bet that those people would have a very negative. The dealer, a multi remotely, especially since Miller, is a republican, and you know, like I think, there's there's been a lot of stuff out there to say you know. Muller sort of like Caesar's wife is with our approach. A key is doing all they can to run a very clean investigation. That sort of thing so I mean, I think it also have like civil unrest- is on the right you have,

but there be protected yeah. I just think there's one of my critiques. I wrote this morning about how like actually have my critiques of White House coverage, dissipated people gotten smarter. I do think there's so much news generated by the White House there's this like flattening where sometimes, if you read the daily news cycle, it's hard to differentiate the very important stories from the medium important stories to the not so important but sensational stories that have a good headline. I do think again. I don't necessarily predict how things would evolve there after. I do think this would break that paradigm that this would be a gigantic again story am would occupy a huge amount of the new cycle from now through the midterms and the Midterms would kind of be used would become an referendum on this firing, so that at this up nicely to talk about what we're going to do next, which is discuss how the GOP and other elected officials might respond

First, let me tell you that this week's podcast is brought to you by Seatgeek. Buying tickets can be complicated and confusing, but there is a better way to buy with geek seek. Is the smartest easiest way to get tickets for every type of live event? With your for a last minute deal planning a night out with friends or you need to find the perfect gift seek, helps you find the best seats at the best prices, fully guaranteed there's, nothing quite like being there in person and an sql get you closer to the action for a great value seek. By far the easiest way to shop for tickets? You could be anywhere with just a few taps: your phone app. You will instantly I'm seats, it's designed you could take it by an experience easier than ever. It saves you time and money by searching multiple ticket sites to compare prices. An find amazing deals. Plus every purchase, is fully guaranteed. So you can shop for tickets on seek with confidence right now. Can get twenty dollars off. Your first seek purchas just download the c gap and enter the promo code. Five hundred and thirty eight today, that's the promo code. Five hundred and thirty eight, the numbers- don't spell it

number is five hundred and thirty eight for twenty dollars off your first seatgeek Purchas this weeks, podcast is also brought to you by blue bottle. Coffee. Nothing gets your morning going like that. First cup of coffee, but not just It has to be delicious flavorful copy. That'll will the way that you look at your morning, cup of Brute blue, bottle, coffee most delicious coffee in the world right to your door. It is roasted and shipped to your home within forty eight hours of placing your order, so the beans arrive at peak freshness, one sip of blue bottle. It will make you realize that you've been drinking subpar coffee, your entire life, don't feel too bad about that 'cause. Now, you're moving forward and you've got it all figured out. There's coffee and this blue bottle coffee. What's the difference for starters, blue bottle coffee has an insane dedication to what they do. They search the planet far and wide to secure exclusive relationships with independent growers, over the world. They get you the most just and sustainable coffee. There is, if you don't know,

What kind of flavor you want? What kind of coffee you want you can take the blue bottle coffee match quiz to find the perfect coffee. Just for you hurry the coffee dot com politics for ten dollars off? Your first subscription order right now? That's bluebottle, coffee, dot, com, slash politics so we talked a little bit about how the public might respond to this. Now, let's talk about the people. The public elected, particularly the GOP so before we. Speculate on how they might respond to have over again. Has the GOP respond in any particular way? Have we seen people start to just sort of say? slow, your roll here, yeah Paul Ryan issue, something you saw kind of the usual suspects in flake and Mccain. Saying like this needs to the It needs to continue Trey Gowdy E James Lankford. You know like there, a bunch of people who are sort of who are congressional Republicans were saying, like whoa takes serious Ripa's quote on surprising. Inclusions are emissions in that list. That people who spoke out

not overall. Really. I think I think it was the usual suspects. I I was a little bit surprised. I could be wrong, but that Ryan said something not forcefully but like medium forcefully, medium rare, but Mcconnell did at Claire's. Give me a look. That impression is wrong. It could be yeah just like Movie Mitch is just like. Well, I don't know my well people really like mates Mitch Mcconnell. I can't do it. I can do it again and I'm not listening. I mean a Kentucky accidents harder because it's a little more marbling Carl, you're all up in around alright, let's get to this and I I know you have some thoughts on this, but we talked on this podcast. Out, and we just data we've done it before about how Firing a would be a bit of a red line for the GOP. What vacation. Do we have about aware. That line is and then what indication do we have about? How the GOP might react: Nixon

that's your president, hair it's a more relevant precedent, then, like paid only stuff that Trump done, I mean Nixon. It took a long time for the GOP, both GOP voters and for GOP elected's to turn on Nixon and remember. First of all, there is say in the herd. So if the herd is mostly protecting Trump in a few deviance are going out, you know Mccain Trey Gowdy and Jeff Flake, or whatever right well they're kind of losers anyway, who in most cases are not running for reelection, but there's herd like behavior number one and two they're, just like nonlinear effects right if you have something like catalyzes public opinion like something is beer is firing Muller, just like Mueller severe than like, frankly like Charlottesville or something you know, I mean it really creates, although I think our colleague or friend Julia would maybe disagree. It creates a constitutional crisis. It's not just like a important news,

it really calls into question kind of the role of Congress in investigating improprieties by the executive branch and extremely serious and acted as having a mid term year. And then we have That complicates things I mean it's almost like. If Trump Going fire Muller. He should almost like do it now, because the closer it gets to the mid term, the more painful it gets for the free advice, the closer it is to mid term. Does it make the GOP less likely to stand by him or more likely? I think at some point it's a non issue, because there's not enough time to like to do anything. You know now it's like it's not like Trump is not going to be impeached. You less like he. There is a p tape or something right, but he's not gonna be impeached before November. It just takes a long time to do these things right means something incredibly Damn it would have to come like direct like hey VLAD. What's going on, Bro kind of stuff would have to happen, but anyway, My analogy that made on Twitter was that, like

firing, Muller would be a magnitude, eight earthquake and trying to analogize or infer what happens in twenty eight event from magnitude five magnitude, six really work very well and by the way there are not zero cracks in this foundations, so the most severe of it so far, as I mentioned, was Trump firing Comey, and that result in a big drip drop in his approval rating and it resulted in mother being appointed an that was a major event, and this would be much more severe than that. Well, here's the thing, though, and here's where I think the next send an analogy is helpful. I think a lot of Democrats have it in their mind that at some point, Trump will cross the line, and you will see a wholesale abandonment of Trump by elected Republicans.

I don't think we're going to see that and frankly, I don't think you would need that to see significant change in terms of repercussions for Trump. I think the real question is like ok, let's say ten percent of elected Republicans have taken an anti trump position today. The real question is like what would it take to get that to twenty five or thirty percent right 'cause during Watergate, even even at the low points for next thing, during Watergate I think a majority of elected Republicans are, or clothes still supported him. So the question isn't: when does one hundred percent of Republican elected Republicans turn on Trump? It's like when? When does thirty percent

an important right from white. When do the people who are already at the margins of Trump and likely going to reporters behind the scene, yeah this guy's, a mass yeah, this guy screwed up our and our anything before he corrected it again. You know like people who are just totally frustrated with what they perceive as incompetence to like traditional republican values and policy issues for their family like okay. Well, this, an easy way. This gives me a permission structure to say: peace like I'm, not a murder or two for that third person. Actually, it is a relevant number because if all Democrats want Trump to be removed from office and a third Republicans do that's two thirds of the Senate roughly and just to put the ball on that. It's not like you need. You don't need Devon, Nunez her to turn on truck right. You can't do it with just flake, though right. You need like what However, the I mean I don't know what you guys think, whatever that to me: it's like the Pat Toomey inside the world on Johnson Rd Cory, Gardner people who are now

particularly moderate Republicans, but who are in somewhat swing? States right, and you probably also need, like the corkers and the Lindsey, Graham, the people kind of stand up for process those two groups combined. We should do that math, probably, but I think that adds up to like close to one slash three but close to it. Yeah, so we probably should have done this right at the beginning. But when we say we've, we've all used the phrase turn on trump when we say that exactly do we mean really turn their back, because I thought you were going to say literally turn up Trump, That might be next Monday's conversation. After that, sixty minutes interview public statements in the pain of what we saw from who we've called the traditional group of who speaks out against Trump. So people saying on the record like this is undermining to democratic processes. That kind of thing public statements where they say,

to the to their constituents or we know whatever they take to twitter. This will not specifically still firing. Muller orders that Mueller extend to them. Sort of some larger anti trump stance. Is that what we say when we say turn on Trump like I will no longer work with our president. I no longer support his agenda or whatever you want to say. I think it was that connecting with the range of turning, I think it's. I think it will have to be directly tide to Muller. I've seen some Republicans kind of call, on other Republicans, to hold everything hostage to getting Trump to behave on kind of Norman ethical and this type of Russia stuff and say: I'm not going to work with you on taxes, unless you X Y z. I think that's unlikely to happen, but if Trump fire mode that's a sure way to your constituents right. But if, like Trump fired Muller, I think class right. It would be like how many Republicans denounced the move, but also call on Congress to

form a joint committee to investigate yeah. There are ways to reappoint Miller passed legislation that unfirable or appoint someone new. So there are tangible steps as far as whether impeachment proceedings begin and how, which of oyster given down there. They would, I think that Republicans would dally. I don't think it would happen. I think they would valley because they think they can buy enough time until the midterms assume I mean I haven't right now. That might almost be enough time. It happened in like may it's not going to happen before the midterm. I don't know, I just have real faith in partisanship yeah. I think I do think people were like. Oh trump won't be a smart, savvy pundit and I think Trump won't be impeached. You know the odds of Trump being impeached are some large fraction of the odds that Democrats The house is a piece. We just means the house guys, but yet, but but not a I'm well actually, but not before the mid term. No, look I think, to a to a first approximation. I think the like well actually is Nate Silver's rom com,

about always being right now actually come to first approximation. I think people overrate how much action can be taken against Trump for the midterms, but maybe like a little bit under rate, what again changer. It is. If I mean first of all, Democrats control the house, then it's gonna be investigation city right. Maybe the point where it isn't necessarily helpful. In twenty twenty Democrats, but leave that alone for now right, there's going to be widespread, GOP panic going to be investigation after investigation- and there are- and be from like day one impeachment proceedings against the president. If molars is And frankly, maybe even if he's not at this point but like that's the elections going, tested on in the event of the Miller, firing and perhaps correctly will be it will be in as a mandate. You know I mean there. Are the markets the GOP holds the house. Whoops that's interesting right.

I would, I think, make it very hard for Trump to get impeached, obviously, for the for the scottish teens on the betting markets what would you say is it? What did you say is this? Is a time range for like if Molly is going to get fired when you think you're fired given like the events of this weekend, that's hard to predict 'cause. I think I think I'm answering for Nate, I think to our earlier conversation. I think it's more likely to be about peak than fit of Pique than about like a strategy. The like jodie- and I were talking earlier- and it's right that it's like it's somewhat hard to fire Muller. He can't just pick up the phone and have it done in three seconds, but it's not so hard that like if at any time, Trump has an hour and a half. Ninety minutes. The two hours where he's like really wants to fire Muller. He can get Miller fire in the sense that if he just really tries for ninety minutes

It's not clear, though mothers not like anyone else. That's why I say like if Jeff sessions is fired. By the way, you could also have a preemptive fight over the confirmation of Pruitt or what I mean my understanding is that late, but why couldn't trump? Just Rosenstein fire, Muller Rosenstein says no Trump fires rosenstein next person, next person, next person till he does it right again, I'm not a legal scholar, but it's messy at the very least, it's not that that is what the Saturday night massacre was yeah, but you don't just do it takes more than a tweet sure, but it is. It takes about two thousand six hundred and ninety minutes. Ninety minutes, exactly, I will say something in this mornings times there was you know who comes after Mccabe, Rosenstein woman who left and then today there was fine with like fourth in line who could fire. Muller is this random guy who have never heard of, and now I know everyone will be googling. So let me ask one last question about that. So the GOP Oculus and then we'll move on to the Democrats. We've talked to Fairmount

like about how there's a political county. It goes into breaking with Trump. In addition to a sort of stand about who he is, and you know, you're sort of morals in your ideals or whatever. What are you talking about? What part you think I'll text. What factors are not so if now smaller than the GOP breaks with Trump. Does it say, maybe more about Trump's political standing, then it does. Out some empirical stance about his his act meeting You know we're in a hear: Trump's brand is down, so that might be the actual thing the motivate someone to break with

Well, it would, I wouldn't say, would motivate them. It would clear the path for it, though right uhm, maybe that's a distinction without a difference, but let's say we think about one slash. Three of congressional Republicans would denounce fire and Muller. If Trump's approval rating were sixty percent, then I wouldn't, I would say, would maybe only one slash five of congressional Republicans would denounce firing Muller. So it's sort of a necessary precondition to Republicans denouncing move, I think yeah I mean I feel like there are sometimes like the like the old bite pundits on twitter who are like this is outrageous. You know, where is Republicans backbone and it's kind of like well, politics is politics guys and for a republican to turn on a republican president is a big deal. Politics involves both real, an acted out moral outrage.

But it's a political decision. What I was trying to really like the earthquake was like. I think the equilibrium could shift relatively quickly right, She begin to lose like the RON Johnson's in the Pat Toomey's and by the way the GOP says. Hey look. Wouldn't we rather have MIKE Pence so we think that's the way we think, rather than we think we think he would lose them if he fired Muller I mean I think he I think he I think Lucy said that to me, the model scenario is that you have kind of chaos in the kind of try to patch things together, but then the mid term decides everything right, and the mid term decides whether this might cost from his job. You could also see pants being a lot more aggressive behind the scenes. He's already set up pack, for the mid terms like me, are distance himself from Trump a little bit right. I mean that's how that's kind of how Nixon was eventually done and is that for

kinda, had a like a coalition of people who are like we're with Ford. Like we can't your short of an untenable, I mean I I person right now right, like you needed to have someone you like. Okay, do you want this job Gerald, Are you going to do a good job generally, you want this job Jerry. Let me let me revise slightly. Can you know I do think you would see more likely than not some effort restore the molar investment question right yeah. I think you'd see that an then questions about like impeachment would be punted right to the mid term. That would be my guess too, but let me flip this before we get to Democrats, though so we don't know what Trump knows. Obviously, but again, this is something Jody or talk about earlier, but if you were Trump, would you rather have a fight about firing Muller? What would you rather have a fight about Muller's findings? Venture? In other words, could it be smart to fire Muller politically, because that's not a good fight, but it's a better fight than fighting over,

whatever you think using that's what Trump is doing. No, no, but perhaps someone around I'd say that you guys have to be pretty bad for the worse than fire mother firing. Someone because he's connecting investigation about you, that looks really bad looks really bad. I mean if there is that pee tape, with Vladimir Putin in the room or something My argument, maybe we can get back. This is the end. Are you know down the line, the my arguments? Basically that if Trump is more about protecting his business interests, to put it very crudely, as more of a his business interest in being president, then maybe I see the presidency by doing something over the top getting in peace and then we just move on yeah. It wasn't and I added death that it needed to die cares about. Being president sure I mean if the business is the same as being present, he cares about his image right and the business was in pursuit of that being president, is in pursuit of that yeah. Maybe

ends up being the okay. Let's move to Democrats and may you kinda hinted at a little earlier, but there is some talk and I'm curious if you think that there it's it's real talk about Democrats. You know, passing a doing something to prevent Trump from firing. Muller. Or setting up a sort of system for them. To then re reinstate the that reinstate the Commission of Mullah does get fired. Think we're going to see activity like that. We've seen activity like that, but it hasn't gone anywhere because they are in the minority Ann, Get Republicans enough Republicans to support that preemptively. You know, but I think mother would have to be fired in order for yeah some sort of legislation. Let Sirius Legislative ACT, action that would have a chance of getting past. To actually see that get started or Trump takes some really extreme action short of firing Muller. I don't know what I mean it's all the things I listed the show. It's obviously you know it's something that the day

that's already on the RD people who have research whatever you know, but you know, they've gone back in the archives said like this is how you keep a special counsel in place of it, something that they could call up, but it's not gonna happen, but if, if Trump's, like I'm, going to fire Muller. If he not, nothing to do it in one week and now there is. There is not me. Well, there is something if he fires. Questions or anything else in the cabinet and then has to replace that person. The confirmation vote could become a big conflict it could be linked to a bill. You know, could be a deal has to get a new attorney general appointed. That's a big freaking deal, was that guy is a boy scout and I there's a proxy? Basically, for you want to get is boy scout. Tillerson was a boy scout solutions but you're, saying eight- that that fight would become basically a proxy fight for protecting Miller if he nominated Pruitt or someone who is seen as a half

the nominated anyone. I think I think it would. It would become a proxy fight. Eric holder, you don't think If, if Trump fired, Muller would Democrats go further than that, would they just jump to him? I think, I'm sure someone would put up articles of impeachment. Yet. There delete they already have yet Democrats would, as United Lunch with leadership back in no, I think I think pillow so in some sense would have some incentive to play go along right, Republicans, hang themselves and then kind of assume that you will get impeachment ready. For you know I would say this Outrage in the first thing we have to do is make sure that the investigation can continue. You know- canvassing our members about whether this is an impeachable offense and the voters will have a say in this I mean that's, I think, what a weird democratic base because be storming the gates for impeachment. Yes, right

Yes, I guess it is an issue there eventually they're, eventually going to seed to the base. I don't actually buy into this bullet like ok, maybe well they're, going to look over there going to hold on to it. They're not going to impeach him they're, going to wait for him to run in two. Twenty will really hard yeah exactly what would it be like describe everyone? The first hours after you get that you get that alright, so it's Friday application today at six hundred pm, it's either Friday, six hundred pm or like Tuesday. Busy for us like either Tuesday at ten or Friday at six hundred. So I'm on my way to a dentist appointment trump There's smaller, I think within twelve hours. There are protests. And the White House TOP Republicans, have called for a special select committee to pick up the investigation and introduced laws to you know: there's a bunch of laws introduced not passed yet but introduced to try to protect mother or

smaller, what's trump tweeting Mega Trump has a witch hunt at sixteen part tweetstorm explaining the move, Republicans, sizable minority, maybe a plurality of Republicans, both elected officials and voters, rally to Trump's defense and that that's the beginning. First, twenty four hours, the first one. Ok, we gotta start wrapping up here, but um just get really really quick response to this we've sort of touched it, but In your estimation, thinking about always discuss the. How would play out if Trump fuller fires, Muller, there's a basically guaranteed that the Dems will take back the house. Hell no increases, the likelihood they will an it really increases the likelihood of the megas, Nami, where it overpowers the barriers from Pandering and the GOP loses sixty a six more seed.

But basically you know yeah but there's uncertainty. You could argue that maybe apart from the coma Irene? If you'll have me that strongly and Parsons I'm bored I mean there are counterarguments here, but like that's, not what you want to be. You know we talked before about Trump's best moment frankly, when there's not a lot of news and people focus on the fact that, like they actually feel okay about the economy, this would be news. This would enough NEWS to last through now how how much would Trump's approval rating thirty, that's what I was doing thirty, five thousand thirty, four guys. That is like not something to be excited. Mind Melba unclear. What about the Senate? Do you think that this would somehow change the character of someone that I think it's probably a cat's could take the Senate? I think it's probably better news for people like Claire Mccaskill and Joe Donnelly against Democrats who are trying to hold on to states that if that are red because they can sort of maybe get those reluctant trapped trump types by,

hang like listen, I'm a legislative check on this guy, like you need people like me, an office who are you know, centrist, quote unquote and who are but the legislative track thing on on on a president you're worried about. As a voter. I think it's a powerful and probably good for Democrats in red States now, and it goes back to kind of Trump's approval rating, so Claires piece on the reluctant trump voters. You know those voters are about one slash, five of Trump's supporters right so If you take a fifth of his approval rating right now, which is forty percent forty one percent net worth for one slash five of forty. One percent said that thirty two percent, if all of them so three thousand four hundred and thirty five percent, and then if we translate that into red States like Missouri or Indiana, that's a big boost. For those red state. Democrats! Ok, let's leave it there and we're going to tack on a quick conversation here. So we're going to go from these sort of slightly speculative big, think kind of stuff

something very granular that is happening tomorrow. The Illinois primaries are this Tuesday and we kind of want to zoom right in to one really interesting race, which is the Illinois Third District, which is a safe, democratic seat. But there is a very and in primary race there so incumbent Democrat Daniel with Penske, is being challenged from the left by political newcomer movie, new men, so clear you wanted to a little bit about who they are? The contours of the race, Lipinski versus Newman yeah Lipinski It is more conservative Democrats, so he votes against abortion rights typically and voted against Obamacare in twenty ten. His father used to hold the c t sort of you know I guess sensitive Classic Chicago stereotyping of of the Democratic Party he's it's a little bit of it has a little bit of an old school machine feel and he he's actually League gotten the support of the Susan B Anthony List, which is this? This group that usually supports conservative candidates, but it's an it's an abortion

abortion group anyway. So there are some interesting forces coalescing around it. The triple c is sort of nominally support. Penske newman. Who is running as a progressive who sang the Pinsky is a Trumpy Democrats. You know he gets invited to the White House. He doesn't have the kind of politics that this district is sort of morphing into, which is more liberal. I'm so that's kind of the contours of it and she's in she's gotten. You know she's gotten the Bernie Sanders. I sing, which is pretty important, she's gotten a few members of thought that the House is progressive caucus to to come on board with her. So this kind of a classic with there goes the democratic. Race so so so make you wanna talk a little bit about that with there's like with with with, but but that District Claire mentioned a little bit that it's shifting in a way that maybe others are so like what it, what it, what are the demographics of the district, and how does that affect this? This particular match up. I feel like nature answers, because many from Chicago

It's a suburban! It's like from Chicago lived well yeah. He lived there for awhile oh ok, maybe the two of you can do it together. Alright I'll give the uh give the type line making give us. This sort of you know Sweet Little Chicago. I know this is not Chicago suburbs suburban Chicago, I don't know suburban Chicago Emma kind of lean. I know I know some cities, the burbs and if they get merged together Chicago Chicago, the birds are not Chicago you that suburban Chicago I stand by my nice. We have wonderful schools in beautiful homes. Here I stand my I stand by my original stance of having mica answer this question. Suburban, democratic but not overwhelmingly so, but not super marginally so either which is sort of what makes this primary interesting? So the cook political report has what's called Pvi partisan voter index, which measures the lean of these districts. They have a d plus six for this district, which is

that democratically and five hundred and thirty eight VI, where we double the number, it's twelve, because it makes it understandable in terms of like a mark, twelve means that, like in a trail year. You'd expect a Democrat to win by twelve points and Clinton won the district by fifteen points Obama, one by I think fourteen points. So it's not. It's not like super blue. But it's it's blue, but is it put? Is it blue in a way that kind of indicates that it would be right for this kind of primary? Is it moving in the Philippines, keep fit? Let's use your action, get. Let's use a five, thirty eight dot com tool, the Trump score. Yes, lipids he's from scores. Thirty, five percent, many his way with from thirty five percent of the time. You would predict someone for a district that Blue would but with Trump thirty four percent of the time. So therefore he's kind of like about replacement level for a Democrat or about average, I guess right, he's not like super progressive, but like also like

It's a little bit wrong to stereotype. Him is like a centrist he's not I mean he's like kind of typical for like a a purplish blue district Democrat. I think it speaks more to the environment of the Party were PSA. Listen. This is gonna, be won by Democrats. Let's experiment here and see you know: can we get a you know a progressive grounds, weld the takes me a minute to office, or is this going to be like? Okay? It's not yeah. I think that's. The important point of like people bring up the tea party all the time, but the thing about the tea party, one of our contributors, Nathaniel right catches writing about this, but the thing about the tea party is those challenges were all over the place. They were in moderate districts. They were in super conservative districts. They were suburban rural city like they were just all over the place. This district is democratic, leaning enough that, even though the he is fairly in line with the district. If you're a national Democrat you The reasonably argue: hey. We can get more out of this district. You know the

he's pretty in line with it, but this district is blue enough, where it will support a more liberal kind of women. It's yeah exactly right and out. That's arguable. Maybe maybe Newman would be but is So we are seeing more of a row. Actually this is this. You know there's a lot of interest in this race. I mean it's being talked about on the five hundred and thirty eight podcasts, break time, but is it? Is it representative of some larger trend that we're going to see these kinds of things popping up? And then I guess to your point Micah going to see it mostly popping up in districts that are already safe, or is there a chance like the tea party of the Democrats? I'm you know, like a diamond hindered themselves yeah. I think it's a little early to answer that I think you're seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Democrats in primaries. I brought up dying fines because she's getting challenged by this guy

daily. On who's up, you know progressive and he's kind of trying to make a splash like he sort of trying to get his name out there. I think most people agree the finds he will win, but it's sort of just like this. Voicing of we are California where progressives- and you know like what, if he's I'm sure, he's thinking like. Why not? Why? Wouldn't I challenge I could I have a chance where I think the recent in getting the most attention, the democratic primaries, are the ones that are too crowded bias. Strategists look, you would say the races in Like Orange County of to many Democrats in them and us cannibalizing, and you know, they're trying they've had people kind of step out of some of the race is your kind of like what you're like you're generally just like worried about people getting too enthusiastic in the primaries and being like. I want to run. I want to run, but I don't know I can't speak off the top of my head of other. It's early other races. That service develops. There's Cynthia Nixon yeah, that's true! everyone just got that email as well. So did you just get that

what I am name Elsa, fit that she official from I guess from her campaign, officially announcing that she is running for governor of New York, unfastened running, Mt A which is like a very New York City kind of issue, why are we talking about the I don't know, but I, but it's a progressive challenge. I mean it's six yeah, it's it's a classic. The Blasio Cuomo feud to Blasio, was elected as a select super progressive mayor and like we're going to change everything and Cuomo's like now this more moderate Democrat who's, like I get things done and like I do things and I make things happen in Albany and Blah blah blah blah blah, and they have this terrible with each other, and I kind of feel like you, you, you know, you're saying that it replicated again of the city said the next thing, whatever that's New York but all over the country. I think you're, gonna, you're gonna, see people doing like the Blasio comma, which is just getting in like the sort of internet scene fights with each other saying, like listen, you're gets.

Wrong? Your your moderation is not I mean it's, you know, think Uomo is more proper than you would think. I listen to like New York City rest of Democrats right popular my Democrats Statewide New York, so it is like a little bit of a caution that, like there is energy- and raising on the left to the party? Increasingly, I think the media, it kind of is sympathetic toward left, leaning candidates but like, but there are in these blue states. There are a lot of centrist Democrats buttons, but even the tea party didn't cost republicans that many seats like what What do you say in so like the this somewhat? This worry that this enthusiasm could go too far on the last and therefore and the primary bunch, a centrist Democrat to lose a bunch of districts, they should have one. I think it is, I think, is a well liked in in a deep plus twelve.

Five, thirty, eight Pvi district in a blue linen year. That's Democrats are not likely to lose that site either way. If they were talking about primary. Joe Manchin, but then they're being self destructive, but we kind of have to go race by race, the same with fine, stealing talent and yeah there's a ninety nine percent chance of Democrats are going to win a California seat so just to I mean I think we are going to do some more conversations with of us in races, but also this general notion of the primaries but make and it's a little too early to know. You know how not how big of a trend this is one when and we right now. When do the sort of I mean we just got an alert from Cynthia Nixon. Is that going to start fast and fury Springer when we're gonna sort of have a search really this month, like a you're you're saying that we're talking about it the first primaries this month- and I think you know by this summer- I think we'll be able to say we'll- be able to characterize democratic primaries writ large section

wither, wither, thou democratic primary, so everyone use wither once more on this podcast writ Large just felt it was something that would say, or you could use Trump way. He said well there was there that that in then that would that have been with a case against. No clue what I, what I imagine we're allowed to have these patterns more you guys. I was impressed that the use of with, if you start using the subjunctive tense- and you know it's fake one- subjunctive I'd- take let my spanish, but I'm an editor yeah. We would lose a naturally my connect mates over. Thank you very I'm trying to use the subjunctive. I forget how it is. I would think you if I were able to is that the passive aggressive, hello, hello. Thanks to you thanks, Michael Cohen. Thank you, my pleasure and a quick bug. I haven't

I'm doing much plug in lately, so for Natick, but a very quick plug. I was recently on this podcast called the fifth column, which is a great show, has a bit of a libertarian bent, but it's very fun and sharpened. Camille Foster and Michael Moynihan are on it. It was great, so I wanted to a quick shot and they drink on that show just throwing that they drink they drink. Believe me: if the Muller firing happens, it's gonna jam, it's gonna, be a little podcast don't listen to fifth column, and on that that you're opening I wish I were able to. Thank you Jody. That's the subjunctive. I appreciate that we are able to able to as Well- I guess My name is Jody Avirgan Galen turkeys are producer and tony Chow, as in the control room, you can get in touch by emailing us podcast at fivethirtyeight dot com. You can also, of course, tweet us with any questions or comments about the show. Your fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the apple podcast or or just tell someone. The show and how much you love it thanks again for listening and will see you soon