Is it line Boeing Day in D C is, and I think, most the jack hammering has stopped. I have something action going on about me too much. He might hear beautiful welcome to work from home. Nineteen months said: who, and welcome to the five thirty politics podcast, I'm Galen back in August. President binds approval rating appear to be falling in tandem with a rising covert nineteen cases and reports about the United States, chaotic withdrawal in Afghanistan. Since then, Afghanistan has faded from headlines and covert. Nineteen cases have fallen significantly, but Americans view of binding job performance has not improved he's now under water, with the american public, with more people disapproving of his performance than approving of it today. We're gonna talk Why that is the key

The questions are for Democrats and what they can do about. It grows Take a look at a new report published by five thirty eight today how Congress may have inadvertently legalised th, see the main psychoactive compound in marijuana american history, riddled with laws, they didn't always work out, quite as intended be two thousand eighteen farm bill is one of them and, of course, we're gonna have a good use or bad you. of pulling example that will bring us to Virginia where two weeks before election day, the governors race is looking very competitive here, is meet to discuss our politics. Start process and hopes are hidden or zero, thus is managing Mexico and he might hello Galen. Well, everyone thank you for having made glad you're here need. Is still on a gambling trip I mean I mean book researched in LAS Vegas? We referred to talk with you know when you make it back and good luck with all of your book research,

let's begin with our favorite question, which has good use of pulling or bad use of pulling, and here at last the Washington examiner published a right up of a pool of the Virginia governors. Ray is done by the report. in Governors Association, the headline red, private Republican, Rolling in Virginia suggest, GEO, peep, poised to sweep and it goes on to say, quote: Republican Glenn Young can lead democratic. Terry Mccall us in an internal Republican Governors Association, pull conducted earlier this month, put the GEO pee on the precipice of winning a major state right waste in Virginia for the first time a dozen years younger led me was by a narrow three percentage points with a month ago, in this key off your campaign, but young can was losing to Mcculloch by eleven points in Argius pulling from May and the trend line.

Just two republican operatives working the race that the GNP is on track to win the contest for Lieutenant governor and attorney general and possibly to recapture Virginia General Assembly. That's the end of the opening to paragraphs. read up? She's gonna get to it? Is this a good or bad use of pulling that bad? that was easier than usual. It straight for in the sense that it's bad you dont, want to rely on internal campaign poles to understand a race. In fact, we were looking back at: U S House pools from eighteen. Ninety, eight, twenty fourteen. We found that on average over estimated the candidates performance by forty five points. So that's why this pole is bad. It's just you dont want to rely on an internal pull, particularly a race like this, where you actually have a lot of high quality public facing poles, yeah and just out about the sort of like a double sent here, which is

the problem with relying on an internal campaign Paul, isn't so much the pull itself, although there can be some problems there. it's that usually you're only seeing one paw among men. So in this case you have that European Virginia doing a lot of line and, for whatever reason, we're getting reports about this one Paul and comparisons to previous Paul conducted. So it's like to go back to our professor poles metaphor, This policy, like blindly pulling green Eminem out of a job Emma lands and then concluding that the whole jar is green. We know that this Paul is green. This but it's not a reliable way to make any gases. Our assumptions about what the rest of the jar looks like the thing that there really makes us a double sin in my eyes is the whole thing rests on the comparison to the earlier internal Paul, and it seems to be that the suggest

this basically lights Mcculloch was up now. Yanking is up said the treadmill, is moving towards young can and will continue to do so. That's like the implicit suggestion right one that suggestion is a perfectly sound in when you're looking at pulls up arrays, because a trend has been moving in in one direction does not guarantee that it will continue to move in that direction. but the other thing is because these are internal Paul's you're, drawing a trend line between two points, but we no idea, what all the other points in the sample are, because they do not oppose that, have not been made so far. We know there's this one Paul Sheldon Mcculloch ahead. This other pole now shown Young can ahead

three points, but in the middle maybe there were fifteen pull showing a collar up by fifteen or fifteen poles showing young cannot by fifteen. It's just a value of Poland on many fronts, so I want to get too maybe what the better use of pulling is, which of course, is averaging all of the public poles to give us a picture of what the rays actually looks like, but before we get to that good use of Poland, but stick on those bodies applying for second, why even release this I give you are looking at the public point. You see that it's a competitive raise. Why would you want to come out of the gate saying over so confident, not only as young can gonna win the lieutenant Governor Kennedy? we're gonna win. We may well take the I was simply don't you want to create a sense of urgency when internal poles get released. We usually assume that there is some kind of motive behind it. What's the motive here, we said that this is a bad who supplying, but the race

has tightened. We launched are pulling average musing pull starting in August, and at that point it showed Mccall of leading by nearly seven points right now. He has a two point led to be clear. doesn't mean that young can is in the lead, as this pole suggested, but the race has tightened and all What we have found in some polls as when you ask voters how enthusiastic are they about casting their bout? This November report, can? Voters do have an edge there to be clear. You know you don't have to be enthusiastic to counterbalance. That doesn't mean Democrats won't turn out to vote, but it does so, just that. I think the reason why Republicans wanted to release this pole is to suggest to voters like lip. The race has tightened. We are not only going to maybe have the potential to win the governorship, but this counts for down ballot races, there's always a motive behind why internal polls are released, and I think this one is then playing on the racist, getting tighter look, how much we could win be excited to turn out to vote. That's at least how I read

sport. The other thing down- maybe the irony here as if you just ignore the use of polling- and you read according to these jerky operatives at the Washington examiner talking the rate of the race the rays etc. That actually is and all that different. Then the public Paul suggested it's a close raise. The article quotes Republicans reviewing the the blame Biden and his sinking job approval ratings, especially with independence and suburban man. Although young can by their say the quality of the GNP nominee combined with Mcculloch. Miss Tebbs, deserve equal credit for the potential democratic collapse, so ignore the democratic collapse. Part of that certainly there's a potential forward, but there's no reason to interpret that over other outcomes. The rest of that, I think, is right. I think bindings declining approval rating is a problem from a collar. I think Mccullough has made a couple of these mistakes. The idea that binding and therefore the color

have leaked support among independence, suburban men in particular, although it seems right to me, we are not presenting a forecast of this election. We just show the pulling average and currently, according to our pulling average Mccall of, is up by two point, nine points, and, of course, that that has friend it down for him over the past couple months, or so. We ve gotten questions about this over the past couple weeks. At this point, maybe without having an actual forecast, How likely doesn't seem that young convince us totally plausible. I need to be clear: not an attack by Mccullough Fleet has at about three points now, since the beginning of September, so, basically last month and a half hour or so So at least since then we have really seemed a raised time. So that actually is one way in which the public Poland differs from. At least the implicit suggestion in this Washington examine article Bullock. If Mccullough, this

Three, I think you'd call him at a very, very modest favour. This is always something I think the media and the public struggle with is how to how do you communicate a sixty percent favorite or sixty five percent or seventy percent paper. That is someone who has an advantage, but he's gonna lose pretty asked it. That's where this raises Hillary Clinton and twenty. Sixteen was up by about this much right and pre election poem national when it's a tight ways like this is when people start looking at Poland history, you start looking for examples of why the Poles might be off a little bit in this direction or that direction I mean. Do we have any broader, pawing history context for her accurate? The poles are in Virginia if they have over underestimated at particular care.

Did it in the past or even if, whoever the incumbent president, since this is one of the first big blockbuster races after a newly elected president takes office, do we have data on this looking back through history? One thing we do know is that junior is in a particularly great barometer for where the mid term environment will be next year and the call of this actually in the situation before and twenty thirteen, you know he was running for governor then under democratic president point Obama also headed approval rating in the MID forty, so very similar to it. Biden was but Mccall if one, and it was actually the first time that that happened, where they seem party in the White House, won the governorship in Virginia since one thousand nine hundred and seventy three, so it has been an underdog before and you have to keep in mind Emu is a lot more read as estate, then than it is now right. So that is a vote in Macao. Olives favour that said,

right now we have a president in the White House who is unpopular and we have seen that play out in Virginia as well. You know right in our pulling average, as you said at the outset, there Galen widens about five points under water on net. Shelley and that's true in Virginia as well to recent polls. Their showed him about four points under water and then three points under waters, maybe a little bit better than the NASH reports suggest that roughly in line incident you know could present a situation for young can hear too over perform Virginia is increasingly blue, partisan, lean and perhaps

in China squeaker. I think it's difficult, though, and I think the approximation that make a gave around like sixty forty split is probably a great way to think about this race in the sense that the Caliph Givens Virginias, history probably has the advantages hearing when, but it's not by any means, you know a done deal for him, like the political environment is one that is favourable to Republicans in the state and could add Zhao Nicole off its number good idea to try their our guest appalling. We can sit here unless a bunch of reasons why Mccullough will over perform his pole, staves recent history, for example, Democrats over performing their paws and blue States Virginia has become a relatively,

Instead, there is certainly a lifeless there's. Even some recent have staring Virginia the democratic candidate over performing their poles and justice kind of situation. At the same time, we can muster bunch reasons I Duncan might over before. We also have a recent history of posters having trouble capturing a certain segment of the republic and laughter. So it's just never good idea that try to our guests the poles a reason to think it took a lighter were wrapping up here. You mention MIKE some of the quotes in that Washington Examiner peace that we're trying to explain why Duncan is in a better position than you might have otherwise expected, and one of them was Canada quality work. This is interesting because the Republican Party decided not to hold state white, primarily

in Virginia this year. Instead party insiders essentially cast ballots at estate convention, and they did that in part, because they didn't want a overly trump aligned candidate to win and run in a statewide raise in a state like Virginia that has been trending blue. and their bet was if people more involved in the State Party can get this died. Young and who may appeal to dependence. Maybe some people who voted for Biden in twenty twenty, that young may have a better. chance of getting a like did as this moderate cross pressure appeal type of cancer So that's one reason that maybe this raises a little bit closer than it might otherwise have been. Are there other issues on the ground that have shaped this race? Yes, one thing Jeffrey Scully looked at last week in his right up of the four gender race were some of the different issues, and I think what stood out to me is on the question of who would handle covered. Nineteen better

Mccall had the voters approval there and the majority of voters in Virginia support by companies implementing a vaccine mandate further workers, but other than that issue when it comes to creating jobs, voters were more likely to think Duncan would do better on this than the caliph when it came to reducing violent crime. There is a ten point gap in voters. Thinking young man would do better on this and then on the question of a critical race theory and what is being taught in schools. most Virginians again thought parents should have more of a say in school boards and it's kind of become a rallying point in that race, because in one of the debates there's a clip of Mccall of saying you know, I dont think parent should be telling schools what they should teach that's been taken out of context by the young came

but it is potentially an issue here in the race that works in young kids favor. I think the biggest question for me, particularly following the California, because we saw the importance that covered nineteen played and voters decision on who devote for re. It was their number one issue: will that be true? In Britain, if it is, I think, that's a argument in favour of Mccullough. If there are other issues say, the economy is a greater concern in Virginia. Perhaps that plays to get young kids advantage but I thought that was telling that of the kind of major issues that people are looking at Virginia as a microcosm for twenty twenty two and on crime on jobs and critical race theory. I thought interesting that at least on those Duncan seems to have the advantage among the voters, whereas when it comes to cover nineteen, that is by far the college strongest issue, those other issues are are relatively close. Go right. The current one was a ten point. Difference and again, I think to what extent there

and our voters actually thinking that crimes high in their area. Is that the number one issue for them? Like that's, not clear to me, but I thought the gap between the caliph in Young can there was pretty large, they fear and the way I've been taken. That sort of his eyes their numbers in Vienna, poles asking, I could you trust more their numbers actually pretty even on education, pretty than on the economy But Sir says Young commands a big advantage on crime, and Macao has a bigger advantage uncovered and so it it will be interesting to see like if Mccall US, beaches, poles but say winds by six or seven array. There's a Fox news, pull for example that showed him like a plus twelve advantage uncovered serve. Mccall peaches, poles and his margin more closer to wear his numbers are uncovered, then maybe we can interpret and say: ok, Cove. It is still a huge huge issue for voters and whatever other misgivings voters in Virginia,

have a down the color of their worried about someone coming in and being like covered. No big deal, which is sort of ever Papa can possess, if, on the other hand, young computers, poles and lets say winds by two three four then maybe we can say: ok, maybe Crime was a bigger issue for our voters than we thought all of that, was reading. Tea leaves its tough to do accurately and with any degree of and we're also going to get to see as well. If the dynamics Please change at all. As the two parties have you had, it was, to some extent kind of go in and campaign on the candidates behalf I know, there's been some controversy. Slashed conflict over Trump not going to Virginia to campaign for young in the Dnc was adds in monologue over the weekend asking Trump why he wasn't going to Virginia to campaign on Europe's behalf. Think, given our conversation here, the obvious why young didn't might not necessarily want to be that closely aligned trump, but we are

to see Obama, for example, go and campaign and Virginian will see if, as this becomes more of a national as race. Potentially it's better for Democrats, but we'll see who knows of trouble of going just add ons that further quickly gale and there was a great article in the New York Times. The headline was Glenn Young can talks about the junior his face, talk about Donald Trump and the dynamic it was getting, has basically what you are getting outrages. Yankees the candidate and he sort of has often some of the GEO Peace sharper edge is as far as moderate voters guys far suburban voters got so, for example, on on the critical raised very stuff Duncan, doesn't talk about Ray Really he just talks about parents should have a say in what schools are teaching is a much more power. The whole way, it's sort of say the same thing. But what are your plans because getting at is like it's not only up to young kids so long.

The chatter received from his days is like this raises about trump cards, about continuing trumps. Whatever tromp is doing so that's another sort of dynamic to watch is how much does young can get tests would have set. There said the terms of the debate, and how much is this? Just like replaying, twenty twenty replaying, twenty sixteen replaying twenty eighteen Democrats want replay of twenty eight and twenty twenty pay. There are eight while we will watch over the next two weeks and of course we are going to have so much and I just to be now in a really year has flown by ETA. Has a time has become ambush over the past year and a half it has thus flown by gale? What are you talking about I don't know. Maybe last year is, unlike just made such an impression on me that

remember it like it was yesterday, even though it doesn't truly feel as though it was only yesterday during a lot has happened since last November, but let's move on and Hydra related issue, which is bite and standing with the public, but first today's podcast is sponsored by better help online therapy. The best way to think about therapy is through a bunch of analyses. We get cars tuned up to prevent bigger issues down the road we get annual check ups and go to the gym to maintain local wellness and prevent injury and disease? We do chores regular to avoid a giant massive. A house going to therapy is like all of the above its routine. maintenance for your mental health and Emotional wellness to prevent bigger issues down the road. Better help is customized online therapy that off video phone and even live chat sessions with your therapist. So you don't see anyone on camera. If you dont want to its much more affordable than in person there,

and you can start communicating with your therapist in under forty eight hours. Why invest in everything else and not your mind? This package is sponsored by better health and find thirty. Eight politics. Podcast listeners get ten percent of their first month that better help dot com, slash five, three: eight, that's better help b e t, T, R, HP, LP, dot com, slash five three eight the numbers, not the letters, as we mentioned in the first segment, President Biden standing with the public has deteriorated in the nine months since you took office. So, according to five thirty eight pulling average his net approval rating was plus seventeen points when he was sworn in and its now net negative five points. So as of today about fifty percent of Americans disapprove of the job he's doing, and forty five percent approve there's a lot to cover here, but I just want to ask the most blood,

obvious question first, which is: why has buttons of rural dropped so significantly? That is a tough question to answer, but I think it speaks to the fact that violence dip in approval was always more than just Afghanistan or covert. Ninety, both in terms of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. We saw a dead end ah, the delta bearing at surge. We saw dip in his approval, but now Afghanistan has faded from the headlines. Disapproval rating has not bounced back up and achievements At the outset, Galen the number of new covert cases is falling in the U S, but we haven't seen violence, approval, number tick, backup. It makes me think back to pulling that morning console published earlier this summer, suggesting that among independent voters, Biden and support had dropped starting in April and that its continued and it hasn't ticked, backup nor is his handling of the pandemic ticked back up among the voters right now.

And are tracker. We show that only fifty percent approve a pal he's handling covert. Remember at one point that was his best issue over sixty percent of Americans approved at the job he was doing and it was never a one to one relationship, not everyone who approved of how Biden was handling the pandemic, thought that he was doing a good job as president overall, but was clearly some overlap there, and now that overlap is gone and his overall approval numbers are kind of stab eating. As a result of that, yeah. The way I sort of think about it is that the mishandling of Afghanistan and the rise of the delta variant sort of spent the demise of vitamins honeymoon period. I would put it that way because I think had it not been for Afghanistan and had it not been for the delta, very it probably would have been set.

Thing else. If you look at trends and presidential prevail in recent administrations, the trend is almost always down. There are exceptions to them but the idling state of american politics tends to be sort of, marginally, in opposition to the party in power. That's why we always talk about the midterm, Carson and all that cost so Biden entered office. I think he benefiting alive from what all new presents benefit from reduced like a diminishing number, but still some boaters give given present the benefit of the doubt bite specifically specific areas also benefited from things feeling much more scene without Trump in there he benefited from declining covered cases

any benefited from the economy was doing pretty well, Afghanistan. I think just interrupted all that Good NEWS, so that was one big thing and then obviously the death of variant so knows whether proximate causes. But it's more about just the country. Returning tat. Bird normally is, I think, that's ray and like the other thing I would add to, that is something that we ve looked at in recent administrations is how much does the approval rating actually move, and so even Violence right now is at a low point. It so actually moved that much overall, similar what we saw under Trump and a bomb. I so any that's an important piece of context here too, were not talking about like a really drastic drop. That is unusual in relation to other presidencies, the other this is important as it helps to explain why, as Afghanistan has faded from the news and as covered cases have dropped haven't seen a rebound right, because when you look at binds

what do you look at his high profile ratings? To start as like the default position, all asking equal. Or do you look at his current approval ratings? As the default position, I asking and I think the reality is it's not one or the other, but its closer to his current numbers, or so what you would expect in modern politics. Do you expect that binds approval will ultimately mimic, Obama and trumps in the sense that does a relatively narrow margin within which prove a rating moves even on his best or worse day, or do you think that Biden is maybe more open to like swings cause, I guess in some ways he relied on swinging your voters to get elected working hypothesis

has been more so that it will also move within a narrow range? And I think, that's also reflected by the question Miko is posing link. Is it the current reading? We she kind of be looking at bite and now to see it, that's indicative of what to expect or where he was at the beginning. One thing I would call the out about the beginning of the term is even a real, action to other presidents. His over our honeymoon was like pretty short lived and not that high to begin with, which speaks to just like how increasingly polarized. We are, you know, like one thing we found there. early on in spreading out strong, approve all strong disapproval. Was that Republicans just work willing to give bite in the benefit of the doubt where as previously in this kind of started, to take her off after George W Bush. But the other parties of Democrats in that instance gave him a higher benefit of the doubt than the Out party currently give someone like truck Democrats did not give him the benefit of the doubt, and you didn't see Republicans

provided that either yes, I would just like to extend it to move within a pretty narrow range Emmy bite in by dint of being a white man. maybe you can win over some voters like we seen as numbers deteriorate, for example, among why suburban man Maybe he can win some of those voters back depending on how things go? Did you would expect the difference to be pretty much about them? Maybe they'll be some difference. You know Biden is certainly not as strongly polarizing as tromp, but if you look at a strong approval and strongly support, oh, it's, not all that different. Yet we're gonna be my other question, which is obviously Trump played a lot of base politics which rose energizing that people who already supported him in such a way that maybe even on his worst day or when things are going well, they would still strongly approve of him if by

doesn't play base politics and quite the same way with that suggest that he has a lower floor in the sense that there's not as much red meat for people to constantly support him or bloom in this case, I think there's this idea on the left that left, leaning, undemocratic voters, like less loyal to the team, then right, leaning, republican voters or put another way like that. The way they would put, it is to say they would judge bite in more on the merits them republic. Is judged Trump under merit. I actually asked one of, I said I was just going to look into this. Remember the Sarah appear and basically was like there's not really evidence for that. So I dont think Biden has a low were lower than that's right. I do think one interesting thing and again I think it's kind of a question right now of how long lasting it will be, and we are working on a peace currently around this, but

at least a mom black voters, particularly a black man, the Washington Post, how to peace on this last week. The cook political report is also written on this, but in has seen a loss of support among those voters, and I think we'll talk here a little bit about the tensions the Democratic Party faces in terms of how it message itself and what type of policies it tries to move forward, and so I do think there are risks, to buy it, and maybe it's not the same way in which tramp dealt with his face, but if he's not delivering on things that he campaigned on and promised on, he could see a loss duty as a morsel among younger voters or voters of color who don't think that democratic delivering on promises they have made around racial discrimination in this country. Voting rights here so obviously

we can watch the numbers took up and take down, but in reality only matters to the extent that their consequences either legislatively or electoral early. So what are the consequences of a declining by an approval rating doesn't make it harder to get legislation passed. Does it make it harder for Democrats to win elections? I think the thing we have the clearest answer on is the elections part. If we look at recent mid term saffron, two thousand six twenty eighteen, the president's disapproval rating was higher than his approval and in all four cases the president's party lost a sizeable walk of house. It's the mid term. Curse is Michael, was saying earlier, and you know that send the President's party gained Hell seats in the mid term. Election was in two thousand to, and that was when George W Bush had a really high approval rating because of what had happened on September eleventh, and so I think that is the factor that is at the back of everyone's mind, particularly now that binds under fifty percent is what will that mean for the mid term.

Next year, but he's a thing we ve been talking about. A lot internally is just trying to understand. Who is a mid term. Electorate is the fact that Democrats have more college educated voters who tend to turn out in a mid term elections. Will that make it France, here in twenty twenty two and then also you know what will turn out look like twenty tea was a huge turnout year. Twenty twenty was a huge turn out here. Will twenty twenty to be the same without have advantages for the party out of the White House, Republicans herbal that actually have advantages for Democrats in terms of Congress? I think it's hard to answer that question. There is research showing that the more popular president is the more that president can set the agenda for Congress. It less clear if Biden were ten percentage points more popular right now, with the bill back better bill and by partisan infrastructure plan. Would they all sat impasse? I think that's hard to set. Let's take

specific case? Actually, you could actually argue that fight in seeking approval ratings could frighten alot of Democrats into trying to pass those bills more quickly. They know given their national allocation of politics now how closely their fates are tied to bide ends. So maybe maybe a thinking approval helps them passes those rather than hurts, but it just hired to say the relationship is much more complicated and much messier here to make us point like this. Just not clear cut evidence that if Democrats, to work quickly here to pass those bills that that lack twirly at least will benefit them. You know I always go back to thinking about the affordable care act. That's actually very popular now

right. It certainly the who was not great for Democrats and twenty ten after they passed. They suffered huge, mid term losses as a result. Yeah. This is a difficult question at one that we ask during trumps presidency plenty, but what would binding have to do to improve his popularity if it's not clear that passing democratically supported by legislation would do it? I think, That's the wrong question! Now I'm right the right question. May I think it's like? Under what conditions would we see by means of providing potentially improve, because you don't think he has control over it I think he certainly does have some control over it and maybe has very little control over

when there's lots of research, for example, showing that the media plays a huge role in shaping how events are viewed by the public right. So with Afghanistan, for example, I can protest, but One theory is that one of the reasons Afghanistan was so harmful to buy them to approval rating at Samson. On some it was a tragedy right, but actually a lot of others. Don't pay all that much attention to four policy, however tragic, but you could argue that one of the reasons it ended up being pretty harmful to approve a worrying is that it was coupled with the rise of adult variant and those two, things together gave gave the media a sort of narrative, and all of a sudden. The bided administration was in trouble. then add ons, that these really bells didn't fly through Congress and you have a track. You have beside fighting administration each other and with the research shows that the meat?

there can be really powerful in interpreting events for the public. That's hard, because what you're describing the reality of what was happening in Washington and abroad. United Trump would have said Constance Why is my approval that going well? Go it's the media's fault? What is the media coverage reality well but I don't think I would compare fired into trot so, for example, Mummy re tell the story of the last few months a little differently after Stand was a mass and a tragedy. I think the media largely covered that accurately. These two big policies working their way through Congress to build that better bill and the boy Carson AIM for such a plan. I could tell a story there, just about Hague easier to really ambitious pieces of legislation. Democrats are working on how to pass them. That is not inherently any sign of trouble for abide in or the Democratic Party. It's just how legislation

at the same time in the delta variant. I don't think anybody can legitimately blame bite in through the delta variant emerging. and if anything we ve seen what our best tool against the current of ours is a vaccine and we ve seen republic ends and bread states in particular lag in picking up the vaccine lag and enforcing vaccine method. So you could tell an alternate story of all this where it's like. Afghanistan was a huge tragedy. screw up, but you don't stick together the narrative away the media dead and connect Afghanistan without a barrier to the debates in Congress. I'm nothing! That's a hugely more. Accurate telling of events, but you know what I mean it's on a simple thing. Like the media covers reality. The media tells the worry about quality and makes a lot of choices and how it tells a story for someone. I agree that this is a hard question to answer, and maybe

the right one. I think, though, what we have seen at least some democratic strategists lean into as like, not that it's the economy stupid, but its covert, stupid, and that as such, I think I am rustling with understanding here is We saw the stool tick, driving violence approval rating driven by Afghanistan driven by the delta variant. But as we are talking about you number of new cases hospitalizations they are down yet violence. Handling of the pandemic hasn't really bounced back and Americans eyes, and I think that just speaks to how complicated the pandemic is intersects with the economy it in her sex with house if people feel and do you know, when will things go quantum put back to normal? You know it seemed as if we were talking. poles earlier on this park ass before the delta variant about how gallop poles or showing Americans were optimistic about the future. Now I think Alex Diana pull, the chose actually no wait a minute we're not, and so I do think for by

and it's less about like what he can do. I think he is rolled out a successful vaccine policy. He is pushed for vaccination in this country, but the overall to directly from covert may be feels like it's, is it aware it was in the spring before people were vaccinated than where it should be now that at least some percentage of the country is that's been difficult for his it station to navigate. So conditions would, we think, would need to be in place for bite into preferring to rebound. I would think US errors is getting at things continue to improve in terms of the pandemic people so to feel like their life. We're getting back to normal, that one to the economy is humming along. There have been a couple speed bumps of late again. This is always matters and how he told the story by this I'm sorry about inflation. The last jobs report didn't meet expectations or that have so covert the economy. You know, if you were just like trying to put circumstances in place,

to give bite in the best chance of rebounding. I think you would say Democrats pass. The infrastructure plan pass the build back better plan rancorous. Why do you say that because as rightly or wrongly. I think the media look sad is the party and control of Washington passing bills as a marker of success, but didn't we see trumps approval go down significantly when Republicans and passed, and he signed the time cousin two thousand seventeen, but the thought just warrant popular the infrastructure plan and that an adult back better planet are positive? So I want to be very clear that what this is getting too, like this hope, miss all big debate. That's happening online. Is passing primary legislation and the key to being popular, and what I'm saying specifically, is, if you were just

trying to arrange the world. If your and thereby demonstrating you're, trying to arrange the world can give yourself the best chance of rebounding, then you would pass does bells, which is different than sang passing those bills, guarantees that your proposal, when rebound. It probably won't hurt you and there's a chance, coupled with some other things that it helps. You honestly, that I think is the best way of looking at american politics is the choices voters make it's not a logical decision like the way I choose. What am I gonna have fur for breakfast is like what am I a mood for? Is it healthy economic factor in all these things in it?

falling in love. You know it's more like that, which is to say, like you, can't really kind of ten point. One thing: it's lots of things, so I should say here that I remember this does get into a much broader conversation, a debate that is playing out within the Democratic Party in the pages of the New York Times on Twitter, which is essentially them about popular on the idea that has been proposed in somebody by David Shore, but also by other people who is democratic Party data, analysed basically saying that the way that you in elections is by proposing and passing popular legislation talking a lot about it and basically not talking about the unpopular parts of your platform really at all, and I know that we have a thirty eight are doing some reporting and analysis and data collection on these questions of why the voters behave the way that they behave and is popular ism, how politics works, and you talk about popular decision. You pass it. Voters will reward you

about unpopular policy and legislation, voters will penalized you, or is there other stuff in the water in the atmosphere? Is it branding That identity is an individual politicians all of these things, and so The conversation we're gonna come back to when we do more about reporting I'm wondering from the starting point, Michael you described, it does love, I think that's actually maybe a good comparison, Duenna tee a little bit more inside. You have thoughts on this like what makes a politician war party, popular and rewarded by american voters in less convinced by the popular some argument. You know it sounds good on paper right past popular things and voters will reward you something you ve seen throughout history, that sometimes, when a party passes really ambitious legislation. That later is popular. It is not immediately perceived by voters as a good thing. I also think, ultimately, what were kind, dancing around two we're talking

voters that on always vote that turn out me every two elections or something, and what is it that picks up on? air radar is it that bite and passed a historic infrastructure plan I am less sure on that front and I think we have seen is that this idea that this segment of voters that we're talking about kind of being moderate in their stances is a net Athena. That's not true. These vote, sure undecided often hold extreme Idiosyncratic issues on policies through disengaged inside two, as we ve seen this increase polarization in our country and so much of our politics defined by race and how we think about race. I think we're gonna sing in the limitations of the popular ISM argument is Democrats. To concede. Even critics of shore seemed to concede that the way in which Democrats talk about race alienates sums agreements of the population, but they still need to

find a way to talk about risk. Republicans are gonna talk about it, no matter what, and so what way can they do it so is something that the core elements of the democratic basis you're talking about earlier, like there has been a drop off among black voters in terms of supporting bite, and what is it that Democrats could actually pass in terms of policy that would ensure that those voters feel that they are a respected and important part of the base versus given lip service, and that's where I ve struggle with the popular. As am I d like if the binding Ministration passes these infrastructure bells, but doesn't pass voting rights. Does that really matter to those voters? Is that enough to ensure their loyalty to the party and for them to turn out? That's where I think we don't have like a clear cut answer it sounds good in terms of a strategy like just to popular things, certainly sounds better than doing unpopular things, but trumpeted a whole. Slew of unpopular things while in office, and yet Republicans

on valid, at least and twenty twenty didn't do that bad yeah. This debate, is really complicated, because when the matter where your entry point is you have the right kind of alive assumptions like ok, is talking about popular things, good politics. Well, how do you define popular? Is it just the most popular for things, I'm on your agenda, popular with whom a lot of these policies play differently with different groups and their laughter? The other thing, though, is like doesn't matter in terms of what the country thinks the Democratic Party and what the country thinks abide in. Another country thinks the Republican Party. How much of a role in that does what Biden says or about close he says, play

There's just so many assumptions baked into this idea, all those being equal, it's probably better to do popular things, then unpopular things, and they say popular things, then to say unpopular things, but that's just not that simple. It's not how politics works. You know go back to their examples are brought up at the for Bulgaria that was not unpopular when it passed, but Obama bomb went onto win reelection. They certainly suffered losses. Democrats suffered losses in in twenty tightened, but then he went on when what a bomb I have one reelection had the affordable care act not passed with. Democrats have lost so many seats in the Senate and house if it hadn't pass. I just think the answer to the both those questions, as it probably didn't, have all that much to do with the affordable care act at sight again let's go back to the falling in love idea when you fall in love with someone when you fall

love is someone minded guy is to tell no one. You on love with someone. You know it has to do with them, but it has just as much to do with you and I have just as much to do with the circle. Stance is under what you met and our meeting and are talking so like fire going out on a first day, and you know I had a kind of data go till they were like hey just say: pocket. are things- say things that that we know this person you're going on a day where is likely to like well that make a good impression on me day. But what if those things are not affected? Who, I am then is probably gonna boy down the road rights or what it's like you smell, bad, but you're, saying popularly fangs know exactly that's exactly right. What if you ve created a lot of people- and this

since not so bad, and so it's kind of like I'm trying to make a comparison to negative partisanship hearings. I think that striving aloft Zia. What if it's like less about the popular thing you're, saying and not just in relation to the other options: the other fish in the sea, you're, not Bad and that's that's a cynical view of love and it's a cynical view of politics. But I of wonder on this question of like popularity versus how much is it actually animosity at the other side, so heartbreak, sorry to muddle the metaphor there, but I do wonder that dynamic and how it plays an heartbreaking now city and like the grass has always greener so yeah, that's how politics works. We solve this resolve it. This was a beautiful metaphor. I think, we're gonna go into production on dating advice would make a Cohen very soon looking forward to the colonies shall, but, as I

Mention there's a lot going on here, and this is something that we have five thirty eight want to dig into more to see if there's things that we can measure empirically some of the things that were involved in that metaphor, that we didn't name specifically is past voting behaviour. Even who did your family vote for your personal identity? A parties branding and messages and ability to create viral ism in the in the media ecosphere, regardless of some of these other things, individual politicians, people who isn't it pack has may have a difficult time, imagining how little many voters are engaged in the process and, as you mentioned Sarah, when we talk about, the middle of the moderate. The people who decide elections, items as people who are not very engaged its people who both may hold idiosyncratic views and also people who don't pay a lot of attention to what the politicians and party were saying regardless and so that the complicated conversation that work on it?

moreover, in the future with more data, but although maybe we may never get to a better place than make us less metaphor, we probably long there's not a single answer: It's like a constellation of forces and dynamics in an counterfactual was also it should matter. Do you believe in the policies? Are the policies good for the country and morally right at your manner, and there is also the question of where it is public opinion come from. Do things become popular because you talked about them in a way that made people agree with you or is public opinion, a kind of set Ben Scape that you have to maneuver around. I think the Ebner, as it can be both of those things, but it depends on the issue and it depends on what year you're talking about anyway, we will be with more on this. You have questions comments, thoughts on this debate. Please get in touch. ass, but send your dating questions on twitter, lions,

Yes, we'll save them all for our holiday special and wool pre record our progress, it's just dating advice with five thirty eight and you can until that at your peril. Hashtag five thirty dates, hashtag right. Thirty, two, that's five three day, that's gonna be we're really branching out or whether we based our values our and make things gale, and thank you adopt next we're gonna bring on our five. Thirty eight teach see correspondent, but first. Today's podcast is brought you by another five. Thirty, eight podcast hot take down each Tuesday check out five. Thirty, eight sports podcast hot takedown, where the hot takes up the sports world meet the numbers that prove them right or terrorism, the crew digs into fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the analytics behind the issue. They end each week show by

having into a rabbit whole data from the strangest fifty point games in the NBA to the ever larger gullies of the end H out, don't mess hot takedown available every Tuesday, wherever you find your pot casts. As anyone watching the current debates in Washington knows, the lawmaking process can be very messy, and history is full of examples of politicians. Writing was that may not be fully grasped at the time and end up having unintended consequences we ve got something that may be an example of just that for a final segment tonight, so Marijuana is currently illegal under federal law, even though it is legal in some states. However, according to reporting published by five thirty today, Congress may have really inadvertently legalised teach sea or the compound in marijuana. That gets you hi backing two thousand eighteen thanks to the twenty eighteen farm bill, you can now fairly easily by synthetic teach see online or in some convenience stores large

unregulated and here with me, to explain how this happened is five thirty contributor. It must have black bugger into the pot cast thank somewhat round again, it's great to have you so explain this to me. How did Congress inadvertently? wise teach C in the twenty eight in farm bill. There was a provision that legalised at work. A lot of you will call industrial ham and hemp was legalised because Mitch Mcconnell wanted it to be legal. Farmers in Mcconnell Home State of Kentucky. I've been calling for hemp legalization for over a decade and since twenty thirteen Mcconnell has been promising to do that, you really made into a campaign issue and there. Is this a real misconception in America about what hemp is that when we say the word, hemp we're talking about exactly the same species of plants? That way about when we say the word marijuana, we just have different words for different uses of this plan.

help is commonly made into fabrics, food and a lot of effort uses, but their use that's most interesting. Tik Tok he's farmers and, of course, to Mcconnell is a compound called c b d and the dial this is unknown. Intoxicating compound has real potential in the wellness supplement market in Mcconnell really wanted see body to be legal for his farmers to grow so in that only a teen farm bill. He included in that provision that really broadly defined hand. This definition with so broad that it appears to have legalised hundreds of different compound they can be made from the Canada's plant? One is c that most people are probably most familiar with, but it also appeared to legalise lots of strange and really mysterious forms of th, see that we really don't know much about, but the hemp industry, since planting has run with sleep all in. That's how we now have synthetic th, see being sold in places like gas stations and in

AIDS, where marijuana remains fully illegal. There remains no access to conventional th see, but now we have gummy bears full of synthetic gipsy. Marijuana drill down on us for it as the second? What exactly are you talking about? What is this synthetic tiered see that people can buy and how specifically did this law make that legal, so this law that waiting Farmville defined as any candidates plant with less than two point three percent delta? Ninety age- see that's gets a little complicated but dealt a ninety at sea. Is the technical term for the tipsy that gets you high in May. Wanna. So the farm bill said you can't grow plants that have a lot of that conventional th see. But the farm included language that appears to have legalised all these other compounds, including types of teach, see their incredibly closely related to that delta. Ninety Hc, so things

Delta eighty see are now simply legal. This is a compound is almost identical to the Delta nine that most people know about, and most people can see you can see marijuana, but it appears to be legal and their health History is really selling these products by first growing cd that wellness compound and then they take it to a lab and they convert that sea beady entity Hc it's a fairly simple conversion to do, but to do it safely and correctly takes some actual professional chemistry, but what we have an American out is hundreds of thousands of acres. see believing ground and and a lot of that is being converted into these other types of drugs.

importantly cd is not intoxicating. It's not addictive. There is in high that you get from it, but you can convert see beady into these types of th, see that can get you high and when you say apparently legal. Why is there some hesitation? If is it out and out legal or not, it's not really that clear. What we know is that these products are being openly sold without any federal agencies, shutting them down, but the farm bill in when eighteen removed. This broad definition of hemp, I remember, hemp is the same species as marijuana is broad Devon. Hemp is no longer in the controlled substances act that mean the d can't enforce rules against this type of plant, farm bill instead said it's not in the controlled substances act. It's not. Indeed, the purview its instead in after years, Purview, the Food and Drug Administration

The FDA has really done almost nothing with any type of hemp product, so the FDA is this is not really saying much The aim is saying actually that these drugs are illegal. It's the D. His opinion. They are illegal, but the the aid has not noticed. We done anything in now These sales are happening broadly in openly across the country, without any federal enforcement having against them at all. I'm curious. How different is this from other synthetic drugs that we ve seen pop? online that have been sold across the country to sometimes dangerous effect for a decade plus or even more, and they have kind of outpaced regulation in terms of slightly modified these synthetic drugs so that they don't fall under whatever the new category of regulation is like is as part of that same story, or is this truly Congress aft up on this one and made a whole bunch of drugs legal that it never intended to each really both? So

Daphne part of this world were chemists, can do really interesting things. These molecules that will create seemingly new types of drugs that can still get you neighbour, it or high, but in this case Congress just made this Also broad that these Camus and many of them are really what you'd call underground chemist. These are not licence laboratories, their able to get away with making these rugs and then said- them. When we say synthetic amyloid people who have followed this up for the last decade are probably most familiar. Things called k to or spies. and these are entirely lab- designed compounds that into for the same receptors. That conventional marijuana reacts with to make you high, but their lab design. When we talk about Delta eighty age, see as the most common of these hemp derived drugs on the Marquis right now, it's actually a nap, really found compound. The canvas plant produces very small amounts of delta, eighty Hc, but the delta, eighteen see you buy gummy, bearer bait and right now

made in a lab by converting, see beady into delta. Eighteen see the Delta eighteen sees trot We pretty safe, there's been a tunnel research, but it all points to it being very safe. The problem is New convert c b, the infidels eighteen see, if you don't, do it safely, you're going to create lots of by products and that's what in our story for five thirty eight we found we tested some of these products and we found compounds that Phd Camus, who are experts in this, had no idea what they are, because this could synthesis is we're having chemical reactions that are creating new drugs, so the Delta etude C is likely safe. But we don't know about these other mystery compounds and the hemp market is really quickly getting into new types

drugs? So it's no longer just dealt eighteen sea, which is naturally found Canada would its now also things like Delta, eighty age c, o acetate, which is entirely lab design? We have no idea if it safe and happiness tree is rolling out dozens of these new compounds and it does look a lot like the analogue drug work. That's been done by the black market for the last ten years, the differences, the d, a can't seemingly anything about this. So we have these drugs proliferating across the country because of that farm. Ok, so now, what's happening, have lawmakers realise what's going on and on, of amending the two thousand eighteen farm bill? What comes next Yeah readers of this road will see that very little is going on at the federal level. None of the Congress, people who passed- or proposes Laud, wanted to talk to us about this on the federal, well There is one proposed law from a few senators, including ran pollen Jeff murkily

and Enron widen. That would force after yea to regulate this, but this is a who is lie? It hasn't become law yet inconceivably. If it became law it would take years and possibly quite a few years, the FDA to actually get involved in this. So nothing quickly is having the federal level at state level. We have some states that are outright banning these drugs, like New York State, has outright bandit in other states like California, or again are working to bring these emptor I've drugs into their rights creational, marijuana markets, where there is more regulation, but so far we just have this patchwork of state laws where there's many states where these drugs are being openly. So what does this whole experience? Tell us about the patchwork of state level, legal marijuana that we have in this case, while still having a federal ban, I think what it really shows is that the canvas plant is extremely complicated and that any time we say if I do things down to one molecule, making laws based on one of these molecules or making laws based on me

understanding this plant you get into real trouble, and especially when the federal government acts of the federal government is a huge force. We see that with how CD has become so common. That's because the federal government and whenever the federal government gets involved of cannabis, it's gonna make big waves and when they do it in is that are not fully in. Formed, not really understanding the complexities its plant you're going to create waves that might end up with dangerous drugs being sold in gas stations in Florida If marijuana were legal everywhere on a federal level, would exacerbate this problem or what ameliorate this problem, There is actually signs that, if marijuana, are at legal in every state, has prompted me to go away. If you look where these these are. The interest is, is strongest in these drugs it's entirely in states where marijuana remains illegal. It's in states like West, Virginia or Tennessee or George are Mississippi.

places where someone can't go to license dispensary and via conventional marijuana drug, so that data show that if we were to use our right legalise it, this might become a lot less interesting people to buy these synthetic drugs, although of course we're talking about the unintended consequences of the fund government, creating new laws. Do you see any unintended consequences down the pike if the federal government words just out legalise marijuana absolutely. I mean, like I said when the federal government actors huge waves and we already have a multi billion our marijuana industry in this country, with a patchwork of state laws, it the federal government got involved in said we're legalise the whole thing. You would have massive change and who is really Making marijuana selling marijuana there's lots of cancer

within the marijuana industry about what would happen if or when that happens, federal I legalization so that might take care of Delta eighteen see problems, but it certainly would lead to huge other consequences. I win places like Wall Street Venture capital firms. now spend five million dollars on I'm on a marijuana company right now. They can't really do that. When that happens, there's clearly can be big changes in this industry into this plan. This control. Ok! Well, if we get closer to that moment in time, we will certainly have you back on to talk about what some of those unintended consequences might be, but for now thank you so much for joining us tonight now think so much Dylan and everyone can go check out and read the full report on five thirty eight dot com, the article is titled homage, Mcconnell accidentally created an regulated teenage see market. That's it for today. My name is Galen droop Clare, budgetary criticism, the virtual control room and is also on audio editing. Now, content is on video an MRI wages, arrogant, didn't get it.

Rightly emailing us pod at five point- eight dot com. You can also course treated us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show as a rating or review in the Apple podcast store portals. What about us thanks for listening and will cease, Her