If I had a choice, I would like to be not alive when we make contact with extra terrestrial intelligent life. Why yeah again on Syria and like you, I thought you liked meeting people you're, not super like hers, scared of the aliens s kind, Alain Arthur, some risks that you see that you're, like I'd, run, engage with that at all like the day after tomorrow, like do what's the day after tomorrow, you like that would be interesting to see. I was in a shark infested beach this weekend. What hello, and welcome to the five thirty eight politics, plied parents, I'm doing droop. I hope everyone had a nice labour day since do have a shorter weakness. We were going to have one podcast episode this week, so here at it, the period after the September. Eleventh attacks in two thousand one was a unique time for tracking public opinion and the United States

Americans rally behind President Bush in a way that has an uncommon in our history? Almost ninety percent of Americans, including seventy eight percent of Democrats, approved of how was handling his job in the immediate aftermath, try in government spite to its highest point of the past fifty years in eighty percent of adults, they displayed an american flag as we approach the twentieth anniversary of September. Eleventh we're gonna look back at how those attacks shaped public pupils. Why did that hence as free on what came of it it is a road and would it be possible. Today, you're also now exactly one week away from the gubernatorial Recall election in California. The fourth ever recall section of governor in american history Californians, currently favour keeping

Governor Gavin Newsome, by about ten points according to our pulling averages, but just a couple weeks ago the rates appear to be a dead heat, so will look at how that race has evolved and how competitive really is at this point here. Meet to discuss is editor in chief in itself, hey? Hey everybody? We are also going to be joined by several guess throughout the show so cure this now to talk about public opinion in the wake of nine eleven is public opinion researcher at the Pew Research Centre, Hannah Heartache and political science faster at the University of California, Riverside Jennifer, Marilla Jennifer's research has focused on terrorist attacks and public opinion welcomes you both. Thank you so much to me here. Thanks for having ass, our pleasure show but stay right in I characterized some of the ways that Americans reacted to nine eleven, but based on your research? How would you. describe the public's reaction to this September. Eleventh attacks, anodyne kick off, so we recently sort of

visited the memory of nine eleven in the immediate aftermath, through the prism of two decades of public opinion research really, we were in a sealed just a couple days after the attack on the Pentagon and the World Trade Center, ASEAN and the crash of flight ninety three and what we saw was this and ten smell, and of national anguish and sadness. Majorities of the public's said that they felt and thence sadness and depression. Many had difficulty concentrating difficulties sleeping after these events took place and this sadness really persisted ass was the era of tv, and so those images were sort of on aloof from most Americans for the weeks that persist said- and there is also just a deep sense of fear, honestly that I think took hold so throughout. the fall of that year and early in two thousand to retract opinion about fears around another terrorist attack, and majorities continue to say that they were at least some one worried that this can happen again in the country

we looked at a number of different I'm reactions among the public, and so this is some work with my long time, collaborator, Lizzie Meister, Vanderbilt University. We looked at three different domains in which people may have been affected by the events of nine eleven first was with due respect to trust but not necessarily in government, which is you noted, increased, but we found that interpersonal trust straight and others in society declined a bit after nine, Eleven people became a bit more authoritarian in their attitudes, and so they move towards support for more punitive. Policies and not just with the respect of terrorism, but also things like immigration, We also have done a lot of work over the years and especially after nine eleven looking at how it affected a valley, dozens of leaders as you know, did approval of George W Bush really sky. Rocketed after the attacks. That will we, Are you in a lot of our work? Is that in a time of threat like terrorism, people really look for,

a strong leader to kind of rescue them from the crisis situation. and they not only look for that leader, but they project additional leadership, qualities in charisma onto those individuals when we argue that especially the case for Male republic in incumbents right, George, W Bush had that try factor, and they even wait leadership qualities more strongly in voting decision, so we saw that a lot. For example, in the two thousand and four presidential election and then. Finally, the other important domain is that it affects policy preferences. So people really become much more concerned with protection when their worried about national security threats like terrorism. So we found that there were more supportive of a number of policies that would protect the homeland, but also to ten of more aggressive foreign policies abroad to kind of go after terrorists, but we found that this was a very broad consensus across Democrats and Republicans in our research

Baghdad tales really well with our. We do this annual survey of the public's priorities. What Congress in the present it should focus on and end after map of nine eleven defending the country against future terrorist attacks remains high on the list of the public's priorities throughout today. Even so, through the recession, jobs and the economy, sorted took the place of terrorism as the top policy priority, but pretty consistent. Its remained at the top of the list and Republicans are more likely than Democrats. They ve consists simply been more likely than Democrats to say it should be a top policy priority, but still large shares of both Democrats and Republicans have said this is a top priority. I mean we probably have a fair number of younger Don't you don't necessarily even have clear memories and nine eleven, I'm forty three, since twenty three at the time, and we have to remember, like

it has not been attacked on its soil very much, it's kind of like one of the nice catches of having a continent where we're friends, if possible hemisphere and is going too far away from other continents. So it did theocracies like good earth shattering event between kind of like a precedent and the fact that just the visual images and spectacular illness of these towers collapsing right. My reply cast today, every people have been- about remotely on some reality show on nine eleven and the captain described we the images what had happened Nick I went back in given over the Weber. Team was in reality shows any kind of landed at poor seven days later, and I saw the image did they kind of think that among us, so incredibly horrible in China happens early during their work day. I knows better.

what kind of crisp for morning a lot of places right? And so I think people were kind of shaken out of complacency and we cannot Are you in his reaction or an overreaction? But if you are a younger listener and didn't experienced it might seem like a way out of portion- and I think you can argue that maybe parts of them yet were irrational and some ways, but After a time when America had won the cold war we thought it was the end of history in and now things are shaken in a very dramatic way. You can kind of say that, like the time since nine eleven has been tumultuous, I dont think of terrorism, primarily by you know. in retrospect marks and type of a turning point and people intuited that yeah, nay I'll, say I was ten on September eleven two thousand one and we watched the attacks.

play out in the towers falling in school, so I even had some sense of how big of a deal this was. But over the past weekend I watched the National geographic documentary on nine Slash eleven Oh, my god, it is so hard to watch the footage that Americans watch play out on our tv screens was unbelievable, and so that kind of leads me to this next question, which is when we look back at public opinion in the immediate aftermath of nine eleven. We see this like union period of consensus and I'm curious. Does that say something about the politics of the time does it say something about the enormity and the shock of this kind of attack. I feel very large site the enormity of that moment, Mandela. You were just talking about the images that we're on screen and you know American sort of conceded like I can't stop watching this unfold.

When, as its depressingly and making me terribly sad, it really inspired this unique moment of intense patriotism flying the american flag, Americans, that they were praying more, that religions influence on american life was increasing in the aftermath of these events, and so you think there is a certain scarring of the american public in some way. Is that this external force just kind of stopped everyone in their tracks on that day, and so people gave high marks, should away Bush handholds blue aftermath The events how he spoke to the public during that time, Rudy Giuliani, that higher prove all ratings for how he spoke to the public about the events in September, eleventh so yeah. I think there is a shared trauma there that really inspired a deep sense of now, oh unity. I think it's also important to remember it's not only that event. So certainly politics has changed a bit certain Over the last twenty years we become more polarize, but one feature

at like terrorism is that, even though we start see some differences over time and how partisans react right and how much of a priority it is, as Anna mentioned earlier, in out of the research that we continue to do we kind of started doing a number of experiments in two thousand and four and have continued those over time. We still find and whenever we have people read about the threat of terrorism, they still have. A pretty strong emotional reaction now it today that reaction tends to be won a little bit more of anger say rather than anxiety and fear, but people, overall still react quite strongly to the threats and come to have more aggressive, militant preferences over a counter terrorism policies, yeah Jennifer. We also saw that anger or two in the immediate aftermath as well. Nearly ninety percent of American said that they were very angry about the events that have happened in and that doesn't

I think, answer why. Initially, there is broad support for war in Afghanistan and, to a lesser degree, warrant Iraq. That was a bit of a more polarized conflict, but even so the fear was that we would not act quickly enough to either retaliate or to prevent future terrorist attacks. Dear, we see today large majority of Americans fuel. We didn't achieve our goals. Afghanistan. The pulling is pretty clear on that now, but at the time it was also very clear that Americans did support going in a bid to high seventy percent of the american public supporting intervention. In Afghanistan, you mentioned Jennifer that, yes, I politics have changed. So what The ways in which politics have changed between then and now, and if such an attack were to happen like that, what happened today or another big event. Obviously we have been going through a big event with the corona virus

damn it over the past year and a half now, but has not been changed in the country where that kind of consensus is really no longer possible or it is it's just that nine eleven with such a big deal now, that's it question I mean obviously, is much more challenging to have consensus in today's politics, but if there is any threat, that's more likely to lead to consensus. It would be something like a national security threat on U S, soil so well there. There is broad consensus among members of the mass public. I think depends in large part on how political elite to respond to the threat, so there has been some really important research. I shall go Darien and Bethany Albert's in on this question, where they argue that if a threat is not framed by, Politicians as being partisan the public, will generally rally, including in issues such as terrorism, can rally round them. policies that elites are advocating, but once elites two polarized, that's when you start to see public's polarized, because partisanship is subjects

identity has become much more team based, especially over the last few decades, and so you know, I think, if elite did send one message and unified. We would see similar consensus among the public, but if they start to polarize and that type of contacts, I think it would be hard to get the same type of consensus that we found after the events of nine eleven return to look good It is a point of comparison, we're in the. U S, things were polarize right from the word go partly because President Trump and argue not entirely because apart drunk and that polarization has carried all the way through to the facts, now that whenever, like point nine coral, should between. What's your trunk got, an inverse correlation and how many people are vaccinated in that state. By contrast, you look at countries that are thus polarize had of writing different colored responses that were treated with approval by the public there's a controversial for example, response in Sweden, which is more

laissez faire, most people's we'd national. Like that response, there had first response in Australia now where there are a very hard locked for some more months until the people are vaccinated, drawing critique from american commentator, it must have been Australia like a kind of very opposite responds. That's why took so you have a deep all government then the governments can take advantage of it by saying we have to play. And no one is really important to push back on that plane and they will have on the approval whether or not the plan is a good idea. Probably I do think the swedish approach or the australian approach is bad, if not both but about popular. Luckily, because you have less polarized environments and wheat

have that in the U s- and I think a nine eleven today would not trigger so much trust him whenever the government one to do yeah. I think sometimes it's hard to remember what the world was like, or at least for me and closer and a gale, and I was I was in school and those events happened does not elementary school are. Of course. I remember that day, but it's hard to remember how polarize worry wasn't really this bad twenty years ago, and we have some measures of that and it was still to be sure, pull eyes in the early two thousands, but I just think today- worrying trend shot a level, unlike anything that we ve seen. So we routinely track presidential approval and the average our party approval, so Democrats, game, George, W Bush or very unpopular president, an average approval rating of twenty three percent and four tromp about six percent. so we're still approaching a floor here, we're even a lot more polarized than we were twenty years ago. I would say no, I,

fully agree, be hard to get the same type of consensus. I think there are really important differences depending on what type of outcome we're thinking about. So certainly political leaders, we wouldn't see the same type of rally behind but say Republic, getting comments among Democrats for Trump, for example, as we did for George W Bush among Democrats. That certainly would not see, however, with the region two policies and in the research I've been doing in there few years with the experimental research we are still seeing movement among Democrats in a direction of for example, being more supportive of drones strikes when their prime to think about terrorism. There also more creative of other types of policies oriented towards protecting the homely, and so we are still seeing those types of movement on policy attitudes in. I think your point Nate also speak to that question How elites are responding with respect to the krona virus? You know it's a very different type of threat than terrorism,

kind of harder to know where to place blame because it's kind of a pathogen, it's not terrorists from abroad. king the! U? So it's a little bit different in that respect, but it as one where, if a leads had had it can hence, as early on, we may have seen a very different response, but there has been some research, that as early as March, who are starting to see variation in position taking among elites. then that's where we would expect the public to kind of divergence, and it also be now about like cancel culture right There is a fairly censorious attitude toward responses. That regime is insufficiently hawkish see you had elite afraid to offer dissenting view the concern again about a kind of liberal cancer culture. Then this is kind of conservatives. Cancelling liberal doves. Further views

this differently might have now or not, but like that's another part of this environment, even in two thousand one, two dozen one. Yes, yes, I mean very few democratically spoke up to challenge things like the Patriot ACT, so we have this moment of historic consensus. How long did at last, and why did it a road? The way that it did some of our data looking at trusting government is a fairly brief period. I mean I would starting in two thousand to controversy. Surrounding Iraq war was sort of ramping up a bit. Like I mentioned earlier. There is a little less consensus around that conflict in the Middle EAST, so that certainly didn't help things. There is also a tendency somewhat for trust in government to move in parallel with you the economy. So there was a bit of an economic downturn following events of September eleven, which also didn't help things at all and really. I was looking back at public

opinion data around Hurricane Katrina and there was a lot less rallying round the nation at this time of a natural disaster, and so even by then you know, four years after two thousand and one the September eleven terrorist attacks. The reaction was pretty different, remarkably different than than what it was and those are fairly different events to be sure, but still a natural disaster. But a lot more blame going around I'd say a lot more of a partisan reaction. yeah. One answer is that look at elections right in two thousand to yet a fairly anomalous result in their republicans should gain seats in both the house in the Senate, despite having a presidency our committee doesn't, for he had a relatively normal election. It was very close between John Kerry and George Bush Bush wine backup points, which is very typical for, like an elected incumbent president, and so by two dozen, for whenever HALO he has is reduced

more than thirty thousand sixty thousand eight than people are starting to rebel against the wars in Iraq, in particular, Brac Obama wins impact domination in part because he had not been as prom war, as his opponents had, but so deteriorates relatively but was long enough to affect permit terms for too much later I mean especially, you know in two thousand eight, when the economic collapse becomes the much more dominant story. You start to see terrorism kind of waves background it did again resurface a bit during the invisible primaries in two thousand sixteen with attacks abroad. So some of our research did find that Trump did actually benefit from that, of terrorism and playing that up during the lead up to the primaries, but it became much less central to people's thinking about politics, rack two thousand six:

beyond, but because it is relevant every once in a while. It will be concealing again and lead to some of these similar patterns that we have, or even talking about what was drawn with vis unique consensus. What happened not just in terms of the elections but in of policy in the direction of the country policy wise. We saw huge changes in our domestic politics. We have now a department of Homeland Security, which we didn't have we Now all used to the changes in just airport security that never existed. Certainly, when I was growing up, we kind of take that is just a given, but that was a really big shift. We began involved in many different international conflicts that had long lasting consequences. So was a huge shift in power. see both at home and abroad and in those policies have persisted for quite some time and we're just play out of Afghanistan, but now we're seeing some of the aftermath of that yeah certainly

the short term. There was a much larger share of American said that the average person we need to give up some of their civil liberties in order to prevent future terrorist attacks and that sort of persisted throughout the early two thousands mid two thousand where people continue to say. The government actually hasn't done enough to protect us from terrorism, rather than say they ve gone too far and restricting civil liberties. So you know that evolved over time. Of course, when controversy run an essay and just how much surveillance was happening also change public opinion, but certainly in the short term, a much higher share said yeah. We have to give up some of our civil liberties. that were used to some of our privacy, certainly the ease of transportation to some extent in order to protect us here at home, it's always worth keeping the mantra. Never let a crisis go to waste in mind. Right and you have immediate responses, but you also have some semi permanent increase in, male and state that email, entirely pull back later on or that you may only

back with a lot of effort and since we're thinking about again ever facing like covered Are there changed it might make that could have permanent effects in those really responses covered. Or are they responses to other things? People looking for an excuse to implement? yeah. I was doing a little bit about when I was looking back and some of our early surveys. I just kept finding me of saying what this fly in this current environment. Or would we do this again and the days that immediately followed support for national idea cards was super high and most people were opposed to things like internment camps people in times of crisis, but still a non negligible share of adults. Three in ten said they'd favor such a policy if it meant toward of clamping down on threats of terrorism, so yeah, it's always interests sort of think where, where our minds? media moment and how does that evolve from there? You know, wrapping up this conversation were about to mark the twentieth anniversary of these attacks this coming Saturday. What role do they get plays in

can politics today is some of the polarization that we have seen since two thousand one result of how we all responded to these attacks, both in terms of public opinion and elite direction, and things like that. We talk a little bit about the role of terrorism in the american conscious in general. How are we different as a nation politically today because of these attacks? Certainly, and looking at our response in the legacy of our response, especially the conflict in the Middle EAST, it is hard to imagine what our country would be like and we have embarked on those military operations, and I do think especially you know I am on the left me all. I think that there are generational in acts. How Americans view the? U S place in the world. What are places in the world? What should our foreign policy goals be? What level of engagement is open? Britain and at what times, and so that I think, is still an open question. As we close this chapter on the war in Afghanistan, it is marred by tumultuous access by many accounts, so

I think you were still trying to figure that out, but I think, certainly its impact on foreign policy. And, U S involvement in the world. It was huge, think a changed a lot. I don't think it's really contributed to the current polarization that we see today. I think the current polarization we see today is much more linked to issues. Raise social and cultural issues, Anything whenever terrorism is salient in the political environment. It moves us little bit away from that polarization in part, because people become so concerned about national security and there still is a fair amount of consensus, overprotection oriented policies, at least some kind of work on external threat. brings a nation together There's been recent on this, yet as international war has declined, internal strife in around the world has increased that kind of dynamic, exact they people Allie behind the nation states. Those

considered part of the group, in the sense of who the group is even shifts people kind of think more as a whole group of Africans rather than making distinctions across racial and ethnic boundaries. When terrorism is alien to anything. I think it helps sometimes just kind of move us a little bit away from polarization, whether it has lost lasting impact. We can think of it more as ebbing in flowing depending on what, whenever there is a salient attack that occurs not just in the U S but also abroad. We saw this with the attacks, for example in Paris, in two thousand fifteen, a merry and still react to those tapes of attacks, especially those who were not. I'm just think of my. it is I'm having right, who also don't necessarily remember nine eleven very well, but for those who lives through those memories will come to the forefront of their mind and they'll be impacted. Even if it's an event abroad, I mean you couldn't argue that maybe Bush took him

search of nine hundred and eleven to pursue a more partisan agenda there? Another round of tax cuts pass in two thousand and three and then two thousand and four. The campaign is partly along culture, war lines, marriage and self worth I mean it seems like a pretty steady trajectory from defining. How are you Go back. You know how, in the seventies, or at least the mid nineties, the present day we're partisanship increases and in some sense we period red, X, What was I going like? The last hurrah of relative nine partisanship in the country were allowed to think about in all of that, but we think there are four today. So thank you so much for joining us Jennifer and Hannah Indecent, let his great to talk at the thank you. Thank you. Both Jennifer Marilla is a political science. Professor at the University of California. Riverside and Hannah heartache is a public opinion researcher at the Pew Research centre. Next we're gonna take a look at the state of the group and a total recall election in college.

One? Yet, but first today's podcast is brought you buy rumble on. Do you have a motorcycle atv or even a truck that sitting in your garage that you ve been waiting to sell with rumble on dot com? You can easily turn your unused vehicle into cash in minutes. Rumble on dot com will give you a cash offer for your vehicle and pick it up for free anytime anywhere. Hardly Polaris can am Yamaha in even if you're, just looking to trade in rumble on will pay cash, no matter what the make or model visit rumble on dot com today and enter promo code podcast to get a three hundred dollar increase on your cash offer. That's rumble on dot com. Are you and be out e o and dot com soundbites faster

Today's podcast is brought you by another five. Thirty, eight podcast hot takedown, each Tuesday check out five. Thirty, eight sports podcast hot, take down where the hot takes up. The sports world meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. The crew digs into fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the animal behind the issue. They end each week show by diving into a rabbit whole data from the strangest fifty point games in the NBA to the ever larger gullies of the end H out, don't mess hot takedown available every Tuesday, wherever you find, your pot casts. California Gubernatorial, recall election will wrap up. One week from today, milk Californians have already voted in an election where all voters received a male ballot and right now are pulling average, as I mentioned at the top shows.

port forgiven Newsome keeping his job at around fifty three percent and support for the recall at around forty three percent a few weeks ago. It was a one point raised, or even less so, what happened and how competitive is the race now here during neat nigh to discuss this. All is politics reporter at cow matters Rosen Hall and vice president of political data Paul Mitchell. Political data is a firm that tracks political data in California. Welcomes you both thank you. Things are having us and I should say Paul. Welcome back to the show you were on the package before for the gerrymandering project good to have you, let's I've right. So, according to our pulling average, as I mentioned, Newsome leads by ten points, given how close the poles word just days or weeks ago. How would you describe the competitiveness?

of this recall action will I dont think it as competitive as a couple pulls did show five six weeks ago, in fact, when you use the wider screen of all Californians, it's been pretty stable e opposed to the recall. The California Lecter it at large that full twenty two million voters, if all of them cast ballots than this, thing really wouldn't have a chance. What I think we saw four weeks ago was a few poles. First, with the earthly idea, pull the old field pulling California the same people it came out and showed that it was basically a four point race and that really shocked everybody but what it was showing was that, among a likely electorate which really self defined people who had some vote history, they vote in the past also we're very enthusiastic that with that kind of electorate that this thing gets close, but with that kind of an electorate you would be supposing, like a thirty five, forty percent turnout in total

Republicans being about thirty five percent of the electorate, where their only really twenty four percent registered voters, and so in a row low turnout electorate, it's like having a fight where you meet the guy out the back door, the bar and jump him and kind of a surprise attack election. I think Republicans could have recalled the governor. I wait for you. This is a done deal. The governor is not gonna, be recall. I they had. The governor right now is probably feeling pretty good we're looking at a high turnout election based on what has come and already and this doesn't look like the kind of election where Republicans are really gonna. Surprise the governor and have over coming enthusiasm, create a real skewed electorate that would be really challenging for the governor to withstand I think, there's a lot of promising signs for new some but the. There are many many factors that make this a really really unusual election, and for that reason I just wouldn't declare any thing to be resolved its September of an odd year alone.

People only became aware that this is happening. Snare even aware at all. There is been for governing recalls in the entire history of the United States of America. One of them was a hundred years ago. So three in basically the last twenty years. There's really not playbook for this kind of thing, or barely much of a playbook. then you have the by male factor. That people are talking about here is that all voters were male developed so that is also unusual. You know, California did that in twenty twenty because of the pandemic. We saw strong turn out. That could be very matter counterbalancing factor to the all of the oddities of the timing of this special election, but also there are just adds up its is extremely unusual election, and There are many factors pointing in the governor S, favorite indicating that voters will reject the recall it's just a really weird race in a pandemic. Not let's leave out the bigger.

Most obvious issue like it's also a pandemic recall and that's a huge factor, and that's a constantly shifting reality that this race is taking place in we love on this package when someone reminds us of all of the uncertainty at play, so they given that night. What are you thinking on whether to keep in mind is like this is not a prisoner? race, where we have seven Paul's. Come out every day you ve had a decent pulling volume, but like it's not that immature poles can swing both our average and public perceptions. Quite a bit Kennedy survey. Usa, pole, an early August. It should move ahead by eleven There are highly rated poster Well, you're, not a good poster in California, though yeah people, telephone you're, more sceptical of them with it, but like that kind of swung the numbers alive. If that Paul. For somebody who was like a dyed, then that might have affected there

Quite a bit differently, and also like is always getting at you suppose. very very big gap between registered voters. is unlikely voters to an extent that generally my deep implausible generally speaking in like mid term elections for the big enthusiasm gap, there might be a four five or six point gap, and it's kind of really quite big between all registered voters and what the actual Electra would look like Yeah some whole should it be forgotten that, budget, which I think was probably always a little bit implausible. Do you think it would be plausible if California weren't sending a ballot every registered voter No? To be frank, I think if you get that resolve- and you probably got an electric motors scream- I just think it's not a plausible result in state. One election will one other thing: said: posters habit challenges. If you look at special action in California, we have plenty of special actions we had when just last week or something where you have

elections that are eighteen, twenty thirty percent turnout in a special elections. Oh all round the stake have really anemic turn when you have that anemic turn out. You have this thing where the young people of minorities. The largely more progressive party electorate they kind of fall through the floor and you still have high turn out from the eighty year old, suburban republican woman, so you can have skewed, but as skewed as would be necessary for this to really flip, probably not in one of the things Laurel said. Is there still a long way to go in there still kind of unknown to the biggest unknown right now? Is that seniors are eight forty five percent turnout to day like of the six million boats that are already- and that means the seniors or forty, five percent turnout does not even counting the votes that were cast over the weekend that we haven't received that data. Yet young people are at fourteen percent, turn out well Latinos are twenty seven percent of the electorate, their seventeen percent of the balance between castle far so the remaining

playing field is still out there on the progressive side where Democrats need and gave a nuisance campaign needs to get our young people, minorities renters. The votes have come Our from the more regular voters more affluent wider. What's really, this surprising thing is that even with an electorate, that's more white, affluent, suburban, it still oh heavily, democratic, way There's really incredible thing that we talked about before the year show is talked about before, where traditional in California Republic, turned in boats early and we had a blue shifted, the end, they twenty cycles. The first time we saw in California, Republicans really kind of voting at the polls and having a red shift at the end, and I think that's what Republicans are hoping for in this is that now that in person voting options of opened up starting this weekend, that we're going to start see the republican numbers improve. You know the survey USA Paul was a massive outlier in months and months of pulling. That was like the only one that showed the recall winning

and all the other pulls had showed that it was close or that the recall was losing and then that, when came an and so that did change that It is an issue your average and a lot of people look at the average you guys do, and so that contributes to the public understanding of it. But then survey they came out recently. I think, was just last week with a huge memo explaining basically a wife, real major problem. Comes with that. Pull that may have led to that result. So in some they reveal that they ask the fundamental question in a weird way that may have led some people to think they were Asking like are you gonna vote to recall the governor, when they really meant to ask, are you can vote anyway, so there was just some major issues. I encourage anyone who really wants to draw down on pulling in this race to look at the memo they put out, because It really did explain why their result was just such a massive outlier yeah,

In general, we talk about pulse outliers which mean that their like, statistically a couple of days deviations away from whatever the average of other polls? Is that can happen and often does happen because of randomness. You happen to get six new people who don't work. like the electorate that well it can happen because there is a real shifting, the race it usually does mean that there is something actual like wrong with the ball, but sometimes it does, and so when it also puts out a memo pointing out here's what these can be misinterpreted, then that's worth paying attention to empirically. I think people probably Don't necessarily have a good sense of Interpol. Is it true, the sense of like being a mistake, I mean people, I think too often Maybe some shift in the race thereupon buying would win huge and and trunk catches up right, maybe like apples and outlier mean nothing Most complaints like that are not well suited, but Serbia or Saint Paul is so not repeated by any Paul before or after work

because it was like a show remove winning by one. It should remove ahead by eleven, and the fact that it couldn't be replicated is not great. I think one of the other elements to look for in the survey. Usa, Poland, we bring it up. A lot is that they often times wait there poles to the Asia S Data, the adult population them out for each of the ethnicities and I'll have a pole come out that says it's gonna be thoroughly latino vote and then Latinos never in any election, been thirty percent of a stay white electorate, but it still works its way into their appalling right now be presumed that there- share the electorate, might be twenty percent and in some races, a huge difference in terms of their kind about come. You can get so looking. The survey USA crossed have this kind of a recreational sport hearing. California, one last thing to keep in mind is that, unlike in of the country, poles and sometimes underestimated. Harold impress would do in California in recent years. So therefore, the assumption that a clear line of hidden rollicking

orders might be true in some states. Where does not seem to be true out there? I do want to try to get an understanding of the current state of politics in California, because even if this may not be a one point race as it looked a month ago, it's a ten point raised in a deep blue state in a state where Joe Biden, one by thirty points, has been a certain shift away from Newsome or democratic politics in the state over the past year and a half or so? What should we make of this looking to be a ten point race which might not put communism in any danger, but he's not maybe what you would expect from one of the blue estates in the country what I would say in her a lot of media. in your face, problems in California that ordinary people are confronting every day and obviously the pandemic has been, and additionally chaotic layer on top of that. But

Homelessness has really increase a lot in California, and voters are constantly saying and pulls wedding. Huge issue that is, people are seeing homeless, encampments, where they never saw them before so homelessness is in your face and people are unhappy about it, the climate, situation in California is really got no what more, in your face than the last three years than I ever saw it, and I'm a lifelong California and wildfires, used to be kind of like this big thing that you knew happened far away, but never really impacted your life, and now it does feel like every summer these wildfires are causing people to change their life change their vacation plans, evacuated check on their family in different parts of the sea, not allow their children to play outside. So I do think that There is a lot of problems and, as far as given new some people have talked about it, like ability factor with him.

he is not the most reliable person in the world. He has very wonky deliveries. You have no idea what that's like here at five thirty but from where's that I've talked to. You are voting against the recall. They don't love Gavin you, some they're, not against the recall, because they love Gavin Newsome there against the recall, because they don't want a republican governor and that's kind of you know it's just like. I dont want them thirteen to run my seat. So there are a lot of problems and obviously the pandemic has caused problems for governors and all kinds of seeds, and I've talked to voters both, who are about that new, some sort of like reopen too fast in is under political pressure

sure, do more. On the reopening frank, as well as voters heard furious, that schools stayed closed last year as long as they did in schools were closed in California longer than almost any other state a mean. Kids didn't see the inside of a classroom for thirteen months. It was really drastic I think there is also a simple explanation to this, or that is a different kind of elections, not a it's, not an their or you know it's. Asking you and do you. Wanna go have typhoid after this and you might say not. I don't want thai food. Ok. What do you want? Applebee's? Well, ok. I want typhoid now so when it's a vital versus tromp, that's a different decision process. Then simply saying hey you wanna, like not abiding by president, you might say: oh, I dont want to be present, but it's the polarizing nature of that person, race like in a gubernatorial general election or abiden versus Trump, where you can see California, we obviously get into its camps, but there's a lot of independent and maybe some Democrats who, if they were ass, like hey, would you like to go the governor, there hasn't

Ben much for them to come. Lash out, we ve got covered, we ve got school, Here we got the environmental and other issues and homelessness that laurels talking about any of you said: hey do you have if you had a chance to give her the governor and like make your voice heard and lash out a little bit. Would you do it then answer I'd be yeah, but in twenty twenty two, when its Gavin Newsome heads up against one republican nominee, especially its Larry elder, that's gonna be back to the third democratic win numbers, and we should just reiterate here: we ve set us on the package before, but the structure of the recall ballot is there is one question asks: would you like to recall the governor yes or no, and then the second question ass? If the governor is recall, who would you like to be the governor, and so that's not we're dynamic that you're talking about where it's not a single question that pits one candidate against another Yeah parameters like I've been, it seems like we know, which way the elections going now, but not for sure. I'm here Ass was someone who believed a few weeks ago is plausible.

But Newsome would lose its conference and the regions that have been mentioned right. It's possible have several different types of objections. new some? His team has told people like literally dont, vote on we have replaced Newsome. I think that is a pie risky strategy that will probably he window looking out to me someone like don't even bother to vote so kind of guarantee slurry other is kind of like burning your bridges behind you it's kind of a very high risk strategy in some ways, but it may work, point of Mary Elder is not some. Arnold Schwartz Nigger independent minded, moderate, celebrity republican right he's. Pretty conservative to clarify keys the Republican leading in the polls right now, as the alternative to governing yes, if you would have liked we polarization is higher. Now right, so might be impossible if you had some independent centre, wrist businesswoman or business man running

that was a little bit more hawkish on homelessness and a little bit more pro school reopening, but was kind of serve on the things that most California Progressive about you never know might have been different. It's like you're, going all in on your third pear. When you an apparent lines on the border? You do go all energy loose to amend rays is the all in move and I think it makes sense both given the current situation and also what we saw in two thousand three, where having a Democrat out there with strategy was crews, Mr Monti, and it was a strategy of vote. No recall. Yes, I'm booster money. It gives a permission structure. Some of those warblers to be able to vote yes on the recall because they know there's a back up and that's a challenge for just beating Rico, the other thing. That's really nice about it. Further Newsome campaign, as it creates their election is just a no message they have a one front war, its vote, no one recall period done. On the other side, the letter, elders the cabin falconers these other actually previous.

Legitimate republican standard bearers, your basically in single digits. their job is this multi front. They need to fight, Reality they need to fight each other. They need to fight Kevin Paragraph, the Democrat, whose kind of the top democratic right now and they want to at the same time try to get people to vote. Yes on the recall to mess. Outside from a strategy standpoint from our democratic standpoint, to distil it down and just vote no and mail it in its lot cleaner, and it is, I think, gonna be successful and it avoids creating that permission. structure for Democrats to say? Well, I guess I can vote yes, because there's this other backup, I think it's good for Newsome, I'm not sure it's good for Democrats aggregate probability of key see if your term style looking at the polls. If you ago. You have you wondering, could I have become governor of California Put some money into the race and like throw tomatoes he's in from the outside and the like,

Larry others that high in the polls rages that, like he's at twenty four, and anywhere else that like to, unlike you, probably wing if it gets that fire. But I'm surprised that, like some enterprising democratic, didn't take an opportunity, I agree with you that Newsome strategy as high risk, its also high reward, because this exact issue I was talking about- voters feeling like, even if there are voting against the recall, they're, not similarly enthusiastic about new son mean If there was a viable democrat on that ballot, there's a chunk of voters who would vote for the recall, so they could get a different democratic play. So it is, high risk strategy, a comes with the high reward that he probably will beat the recall and that he'll keep the governorship. But the messaging is its very odd to hear a public officials say, don't vote on. Fifty percent of your ballot

that's what we're having in this situation its strategy, that's good for new some! I dont know if it's good for California, if this recall goes the other way and vote I have listened to that advice. Then the next governor will be selected by a very small segment of the electorate and that's not good for democracy. I will tell you another big potential benefit of this. Is that for those You been falling, California politics, you got Kevin Faulkner on the ballot he's republican from San Diego from that moderate wing of you. No other Republicans come at a San Diego. You ve got John It was the nominee last time for governor. You, ve got clearly, it is an up and coming younger republican supplement the the candidates are going to end up potentially in single digits. In a recall, in beaten by Larry Elder with very, very low numbers, basically a wrecking ball to the republican candidates for governor and twenty two-

essentially like news comes out of this with a double whammy he can meet the recall leave. The Republicans Than shambles- and I also think, there's a potentially such nationally around this, because nationally, I think that take could be California Governor one postcode by embracing the cupboard restrictions by bracing masking and vaccines- and truly running into the storm rather than run away from it is done. A really interesting messaging shareholder Holocaust from what I understand. What the California politics is that this recall action has scared, Gavin Newsome into tamping down on some of the restrictions that had previously been really enthusiastic about. Oh no he's been campaigning on that Larry who's gonna make it unsafe to go to schools because he's gonna, get rid of the vaccine, mandates he's gonna, get rid of masking he's gonna like they ve been actually embracing the covered restrictions, at least they have in the last six weeks, or so

not a change, because it seems to me that, previous too, that there had been a lot of hesitation to re, implement restrictions. The California had previously used during surges and the virus, governor knew some has done additional restrictions. In recent weeks they haven't been exactly the same that he did and earlier phases of the pandemic, but even with the recall and meaningful tell key did announce a few weeks ago. That vaccines would be required for all Seton, please and school teachers. There is not a mask mandate statewide, but there is a mass recommendation and some county is our requiring masks and indoor locations. So this kind of feel like the pandemic has allowed the search, I should say the recent surge with the delta veering and How- created an opportunity for a new some to really differentiate himself from his approach. And so we are seeing a sort of his closing argument in this campaign is definitely about that

and I'm making about public health and public safety related to his managing versus, is republican opponents, who have all said that they oppose vaccine mandates opposed mask mandates and news, is really contrasting, what's happening in Texas in Florida and other southern states with what's happening here, so he does seem to be cut from all leaning into that, and I think that partly comes back to this is a turn out election for the governor. He just needs to get Democrats to vote. That's all he needs to do if democratic vote and independence usually vote. Democratic vote he's fine, he does not need to. her sweet anyone. He does not need to get any warblers on his side or convince Republicans to stick with him all. He needs to do is get democratic voters to turn in their balance and with the common policy to review its worth having a somewhat more nuanced view right, like vaccine requirements, are often pretty popular. If you ask people mass requirements

Some are popular, especially California. Things like like might be less popular, but those really on the table in California and two point about contrasting four situation with other parts of the country I mean California, is a little below average for infections, currently its members are also flattered. Turning down slightly there's some Labour day aberrations. Potentially, what can I do named in the winter when California had a pretty bad outbreak and music had the worst, both worlds right. You had a lot of restrictions and a lot of covert people to be upset him prolific, directions naive, the story now? California, hospitals are overwhelmed in Delta, has been for the time being, perhaps somewhat tamed. California, S was a bit argument to make now than it might have at earlier points. The pandemic

yeah. I think his campaign team really is making a point of going on the offensive on cove, and I think they do want a kind of sent a message to Democrats nationally that there is potential for switching up from hiding from the cupboard messaging really embracing. That Democrats could do it better. I think it's interesting the other parts of the California story that we were expecting. I'm sure laurel this expecting this Alot California's wildfires the wildfires and write. The middle recall was always something I think people were scared about. Calphurnia smiling up checks to count many residents right now, which we always thought that was going to have a big impact. You know your look for the favourable for I incumbent giving up money isn't a novel. I yeah. I guess for winning some friends by overall did Larry Elder campaign and the messaging that he's putting out there. It's really been a gift to the new some campaign, and it really is probably the defining thing and that's an interesting arc for, recall this recall was started by anti immigration folks collecting signatures. It got a second life because of

the restrictions and they extended the period for the signature gathering and the same gathering was fuelled by people who were upset about covert, and these last few days these last couple weeks, we have the decision of Texas. We have. The democratic electorate is like on fire right now over choice, and we could have that be the thing that Larry Elder wants to appoint judges. and wants to get rid of access in California and Gavin Newsome they're going to fight for it. That could be the interesting final message here: and it's an interesting arc for a recall action and the state. Partisan

politics getting back to normal after being frustrated by a massive national event? Who would have thought anyway? We're gonna covered some more next Monday the day before the election will talk about what to watch as the returns come in, but let's leave it there for now. So thank you Laurel and thank you very much remnants preceding here. Thank you. Borell is a positive report or a cow matters and Paul Mitchell as the vice president of political data. Mining is gaming. Droop tony child is in the virtual control room. Clare bidding very Curtis is on audio editing. An MRI leaders are in turn in get in touch my emailing us pod cancer, five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, treated us with questions or comments. If you're, a friend of the show, leave us waiting or review in the apple pie can store or tells him about us. Thanks for listening- and we will see-