No you're, not in a torrent of it, but you are in Vegas and your therefore work. So what are you doing? I must beg you know. It's all think. ambiguity this city, you feel like you're, a Vegas aficionado now by having moved outside of the strip at all Is it just now for sure I know you. I know a fair bit about big assets he's only a regular and the kind of you know after Strip Cedar Cedar here hi, oh, and welcome to the five thirty in politics pie cast Iron Galen group. President violence, two trillion dollars. Social spending and climate change agenda is at its most tenuous position. Yet for a year of stops and starts on Sunday, Virginia Senator Joe Mansion announced in a tv interview that he will not support the girl back better plan. Of course,

cried, slim majority in the Senate means nothing passes without the support of every single democratic sending it was apparently a surprise. As to the White House and other leaders in the party tonight, working Take a look at mentions rationale and why Democrats might go from here. Roles are going to take a look back at the year. That was we'll try to pinpoint the most consequential political events of twenty twenty one. and discuss how our understanding of american politics was challenge and, of course, walls or ask our favorite question good use of polling or bad use appalling. Today's example suggests that it is young Americans, not older Americans, who are least supportive of President Joe Biden Currently- and here I mean to do that- is editor in chief mate, Silver Cainy, every also with us is managing editor make a colony, mica, hello, Galen, hello, everyone and politics, editor sacrifices and hey Sarah Hail,

so we have a show full of high level five, thirty eight Anders today. I assume that means that our analysis is going to be absolutely top notch. We'll stated will consider up up up up up. I mean wouldn't expect anything less easy. I was gonna disagree that what we want. We want disagreement. True, a better editor than I am a writer of his editors, like you get a good analysis to work with than you just make it better, I'm not as good as you know, coming up with actual smart things to say mega. That is far too humble. Luckily, it's like the big picture stuff for today. I feel it placed editor stream from MECCA. Does John, you don't actually have to say anything in size. You just gonna like make broad statements, replaced in imports,

still stood with us and how I won't do it, but you know the holidays of kind of begun calendars. Little weird, this year's are it's really spread out over almost two weeks, I gas everyone in the house We made not yet made me think that'll change. I just mentally transition to holiday mode. Yet I will soon I have something to do with the weather and being in LAS Vegas. it's called actually most Vegas about like one. Sure thing idiot and more than one month seizure, but like one sweatshirt knots, plenty wintery here. Actually well, then, maybe you'll be I'm a holiday spend the night command spicy to start the podcast

mean what else we expect does her. So, let's drive end with our favorite question. Last week the economist published a titled young Americans are turning on Joe Biden, and it feature to chart showing that from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, people under the age of three we went from being biting most supportive group to his lease supportive group in January Bite and had a plus thirty net approval amongst people under threat and it is now net negative, twenty one according to pulling from the economist, and you got so that's a whopping more than fifty point reversal. Adults aged thirty to forty four also sound on the president's significantly, but there was much less change amongst those forty, five and older his appeal with that group began a little bit better than break even and is now a net negative six. The article frames, the loss of support amongst young people

an exit, central risk for Democrats. They re quote America's left- depends on the support of young people. That quote Mr Barton's failure to impress the young now threatens his presidency and quote if this trend persists. The Democrats will face severe challenges in next year's mid term elections. So, What do we think of how the economist has broken down presidential approval among the electric by age and set the stakes for Democrats? In other words, is this a good use of polling or bad use? Of pulling Sarah kick off? Ok, I think I might have a controversial Take on this I thought it was pretty bad and I was surprised by this finding because, in the lead up to the twenty election, a story we had worked on was what does bite in support. Look like with young is, and what we found is it wasn't that different than Clinton's he was not doing poorly, but it was also kind of met. It was just fine right

Moreover, I think the way that they attributed bite in and other Democrats victories. Two younger voters just felt ah fino per pupil twenty validated builder survey. They found that voters under the age of thirty, made up fifteen percent of the electorate. So without that contacts it felt like we- resuming in on one section saying this was super potent all Democrats, stakes are held to it and I just felt after me- so I say bad guy I'll be honest. I've heard about people than await this is appalling. Does anyone have a different opinion among the mostly bedside too I mean there are a couple of issues. One is dead we'd like to see some attempt to verify this through other poles. In general like age, is not a huge determinant of support on its own. It might be a proxy for something else or might reflect some

potential flawed? Has one particular surveys reaching respondents or it might reflect to some degree sample size issues of economists does like problem. Very often, there should be a lot of sample size issues, but you never know right but like if you run trends on twenty different demographic groups. You can kind of fish around in and find a story in one or two of them is like not really a clear thesis that those that are a bunch of issues right number two is the framing? I mean young people don't vote as much as all people. So young people right- that's officially Bob I lose. I premises are positive for by young people, Burnett Garter anyway right. So I wish you all these on. Among other people who are going about the mid term maybe he's under aided by approving poles internet. and there's like he said, I ll come back my twenty for anyone to say like if you're again, looking at all these different demographic groups between race and gender and age and when or else you can always find some friend like I'd, be much organs,

Democrats for Silajdzic on sport among hispanic voters, because young people are less politically engaged? They probably. around a lot more but of those people, are politically engaged. I want to see that break out. For example, I just talking there's much like a real explanation. I bought this here. It's kind of fishing around for random explanations for perhaps somewhat random swings in the polls in one pull at all levels, but light in their pole. I should say I was surprised by this pulling so I went and looked up another reason. Presidential approval pull this one from merest to see if it mimic their findings at all and in the most recent Maris pull from December of twenty twenty one under forty five for bite. In thirty, eight percent approval fifty three percent disapproval. Forty five,

older forty six percent approval forty nine percent disapproval, they break it down even further unified Genji millennial and so on any pretty much tracks with actually what the economist and you got found. What is that Genji and millennials are the least supportive of the president and as you get older, the silent generation and the greatest generation over seventy four actually are the most supportive of the president. So fifty percent approve and forty one percent disapprove first I do think you begin like big old thesis around this, that you should go ahead and take the half a day. We take to look at all the poles. Not just a marriage there you go appalling, confirm that I don't think they did that they like skipping step like let citizens. a somewhat robust trying to have a little bit exaggerated by their paw right, they're kind of going like, while young people Biden? That's bad for them rats. I can't, I don't think it's actually necessarily as boughs of older people are suffering on my butt, you what's the matter,

Maybe the. Why is that young people have been really over by inflation However, by like colored restrictions or whatever else, but like that's, where the actual like journalism part comes it they're kind of skipping straight to like the horse race part with conclusions, I think actually dont really follow from the actual electoral standpoint, don't necessarily follow through anyway. So I didn't. I I want to make the why If you have a why, then I buy the what more you know, an explanation for why is occurring make up? How do you down on us. It really comes out like what do you want out of this economist peace, because on one end, I thought it was a fine use appalling in the sense of like these ah the Singapore and they're putting it on their website and saying: hey here's the thing we found in our pull. That seems fine, too good Paul. It's well conducted blah blah blah blah blah. I did look at like some other pulling its us for exam,

also shows it says, breaks it out by eighteen, thirty, nine year olds, and then forty in older and it's a shows biting the perverse sinking to forty six percent disapprove of forty nine percent among eighteen, thirty, nine year old, forty in older, its forty eight percent approve, deeper saps alike, not quite as exaggerated as the economist Yoke of data, but like whatever a similar, more muted trendline. I do agree with me. peridot, where I think this piece gets into trouble is and what it does with that trendline. Where that says, all the sudden psyche Democrats are in big trouble well, as Nate says, we're like skipping a few steps there

The peace does like makes some attempt that, ascribing though I mean it's a very short bees, but you know in the dac it says, without the threat of Donald Trump, the present policies are coming under increasing scrutiny. Okay, but to make a point by the time we reach twenty twenty two and then twenty twenty four, your back in that choice, mindset voters are right, rather than just a simple referendum on the president. The peace also makes mention of like younger voters, accordant appalling, really care about climate, really care about health care, and the present has really done much there, so they serve imply, that's the cause right. This say, like violence, numbers had dropped among young people, pulling also shows young people care about Ex Wind Z and our kind of connecting those two and I dont think they ve done the work, tat

those tat, so I don't know I just like I hate this was interesting. What's up with theirs, I think it's a perfectly good use appalling, as I hear them, theory that explains it really. Concerning trans, I think it's a bad use of pulling suit. All of you have mentioned that there is a little bit of a problem with the wise here and, as you said, Michael they mention climate they mention healthcare. They also going to say quote younger hurricanes care more about civil rights and abortion and maybe energized by recent Supreme Court rulings on the ladder. Others are angry about student loans and Mr Barton's unfulfilled promise to cancel at least ten thousand owed by every bar, of course, about a third of people in the United States Audrey from for your college is anyway there's a lot going on here in terms of the wide how'd you test. All of this do we have any sense of what the why may be near. You mentioned that it could be frustration with covered restrictions

or inflation, or what have you or inflation nor the job market just general vague notions, Joe Biden, we kind of naturally returnest normalcy, which has an app right, like I'm, very suspicious that young people have kind of I mean they're running, like the young people of ignorant people in their social networks, really very progressive people who feel that Ireland is not aggressive enough, right. I'm I'm highly suspicious about conclusion and highly speech that, like many young people care about bill back better not having pass yet as opposed people who were having a difficult year, maybe people who think that Biden is kind. out of touch and because young people are less publicly engaged and older people. I mean journalists in general also overrate how attuned most, Older voters are two most political happenings but like.

Probably even more so for young people and because the people running our young people, they probably don't realize and unrepresentative their networks are. Actually. This is like one of the first things I learned working with, nay that that Nay said to me, as I Bite in numbers over all have dropped. So when you see an overall trend line, you're gonna You show up in almost every group and so you're starting assumption for why bindings numbers have deteriorated among young people, people should be well for the same reasons I ve gone down for everyone else. It's been a really tough year, re still going inflation. All things need as mentioned. Are their unique reasons why bite in numbers gone down more among young people, but first of all we're not really ready to say they have gone more among young people and even if they have

they were better among young people to start so they had more room to dropped. So maybe it's just like reversion to mean the book. He says information. I think that's kind of missing from this article and where they would have behooved themselves to it push more to include it. As I was looking. I was thinking about this pull in the context of a midterm election, and so in twenty eighteen, which was already like historically high turnout for a midterm. There was a huge increase in the percentage of younger people who turned out to vote. It was twenty percent in twenty fourteen. Thirty six percent and twenty eighteen. You know, that's a seventy. Nine percent point Jump and so you know, I do think the economist is right to kind of question well, could it be that maybe there's an enthusiasm problem among Democrats, but it wasn't package? Does that it didn't look at how other Group set up on the question of enthusiasm and whether that was you know to be expected. In a mid term year,

swell- and I would have liked to see that be pushed more honestly. more than any one issue, because I do think that's hard to distil like ok, it's just climate change. That's why younger voters are turning on by it and I think it would have been better to kind of This overall enthusiasm show we haven't really mentioned the age of the president. Of course, Joe Biden is the oldest personality inaugurated too offers term. We see that in other political questions and in the ways that people vote people sometimes share an affinity for the candidates that are most like that you know. For example, we see that when somebody has hispanic name on a ballot. They are more likely to get support from hispanic voters. We see people play into identity, politics, all kinds of ways trumpeted, etc in go on and on these each one of those No, like are older. People have more of an affinity for Joe Biden, because he's closer I'm in age and younger people feel more we needed by him because he is far away from them in each Bernie

understood well among the youth, such not about age. Perceval into binding, is kind of like an old timey politician is traditional, and how you about things you know he's not Kip he's Kind of Wheeler dealer type has been around for a long time and maybe people are less sympathetic and old people too, like age related foibles, whether exaggerated by the media or not is aviators, didn't do it for you named I'm gonna write a middle age and forty three IRAN, demographic, my upon a balanced here curious that this is not rooted in data as much as ten of a conventional wisdom point of view, age. She, Canada, are shocked by less care about less. So I do wonder to what extent overseen with older voters, not much of a drop is like, of course, Democrats didn't get X. Y see die This may be younger. Voters are more disillusioned by that might be or, as night said. Maybe it's about sort of

tuned in you are so older voters are more condemned, and so to your point, Sarah not only have seen more but recall more. I well know, just as aside note, to Galen your point about bindings edge, the economist headline their chart on this, not aging. Well, I thought was maybe over to one than us. One question I have here as we wrap up is we haven't seen similarly that a bunch of young people are now identifying as Republicans or something like that, so the fact that they may still lean towards a democratic party but not approve of bided would fly in the face of this trend that we see of high levels of participation. And polarization and that you know like if you identify more with the last you're gonna approve of the president from the Democratic Party and vice versa,

so our young people just less partisan, because on the flip side, old people may be pretty said into their partisan ways and therefore just have more loyalty to president from their party they are less parties in the sense of being less likely to identify with one political party emitted. A contract is missing from this is: do young people swing, and more in general than older people. If self is a fairly substantial drop it bites providing you would expect that to have occurred among swing you're demographics like young people, it would also be they have as a rebound. They would rebound more. My young people, it's a peculiarity. Article is If I say here is funny thing, we in an appalling ripe, the promise I putting this big headline on entering like it's a big deal without doing his extra homework. Architectural ASEAN,

that's a thing just before we rap I do want to say I am actually a big fan of the hey, here's a chart and fifty words articles. I love those articles and I love those charts, but you just have to be really careful with how you sell that man advertised them cause. You can get yourself in a lot of trouble, there's a reason, most article our longer than fifty words and his, because most news stories take more than fifty words to give enough context, and caviar and and research and reporting are well sounds like doesn't the trend we can continue to watch and see if we see further affirmation of it or if things you don't turn around bounce back for the president. But let's move on and talk about Joe Mansion and build that better plan. But first today's podcast is broadly by quit, books live being a small business owner requires you to wear a lot of hats, and sometimes those hands are always the best fit for,

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And and the problems I've had it, and you know the thing that we should all be directing our attention towards the variant. A covert we have coming back at us in so many different aspects in different ways. Its effect our lives. Again we have inflation that basically could harm really harm a lot of Americans. especially those who are most in need, having a hard time struggling right now. There is plenty of reporting and speculation on what mansions goal is with this interview. What do you understand it to be mica? I think. Action is practising politics which Everyone in Congress and the White House has been doing this whole time. I just think that's the right place to start here and Whatever reasons he's giving on policy, I think our

I can vary too where he thinks the politics of this are over himself, and his hum stated in his goal is to distance himself from the bill and from by them. yeah no friend some pieces. I really could this be mansion trying to one up his positioning. It's like his. Positioning was already really good. You know the spill does not pass without mansion behind it, and so it's for me to see that kind of political manoeuvre. From him being baked into this by, because maker is getting at, you know, just he's, looking at the political realities of his home State West Virginia that voted for travel by more than forty points and he's not going to back a bill of this scale

and the way in which she did. It also kind of suggests to me that it's hard to see how this hopes his standing in trying to continue to have productive conversations on this moving forward. The fact that did it on Fox NEWS, I think, is a tip off. This is mostly about politics and not about leverage in the negotiations. As Sir said, he already had plenty of leverage. But since he did on Fox NEWS, you saw a pretty blistering statement from that's such a political report, or indeed in every man, humblest working blistering, you suck even clearly I've been reading a lotta article, simple tab, blistering statement from White House per second now, but this statement more aggressively went after mansion than the White House has today they ve been very kind of kids. Glove with manually basically suddenly went back on his work in July Yet they called him a liar without saying that yeah

and then, in immediate wake of all this, the have imposed came out with an article just read the headline. The headline is Joe Mansion pray, they taught colleagues, parents use child tax credit money on drugs, so the source, our sources any seem today, anonymously or fellow senators are people in Congress. So now Democrats are gone after mansion. So it sort of, like I think, ion and we through a lot of cold water on the like gems in death ray narrative that has popped up over the last few months. And I'm not even willing to use that hashtag now in disarray, If you want to see something a little bit closer to dams in disarray, that's where are now where there is light anonymously sourced attacks on the senator and the White House is issuing a statement. You know and mansions going on Fox whose dams are angry exactly okay, so if dams

not in disarray. Are you saying that you think this is not the end of the build back better plan and instead is just another? up along the way to democratic, eventually passing some kind of social spending and climate bill now to be clear. This is definitely like this. It's definitely possible that they come back and pass something that is somehow related to the ball back better plan. There's a lot of talk now, for example, on like what mentioned says he wants, is fewer programmes that dont sunset, pure programs out last longer. Maybe that's what or pass so don't think it's like the ending of all these negotiations. This isn't really too much of a surprise. Nature has been saying for a long time. The hay thinks that the bill is too much. He doesn't like the fact. You have a bunch of short term programmes that phase out

he would like to parent downright and Democrats have really made too much progress in front of the scenes on those complaints. Maybe they have behind the scenes of me out of here. Natural someone who is pretty indifferent towards this when you're indifferent, if you're have a lot to leverage, you can walk away from the table, and so I think, that's like why you frustrates progresses he's kind of you can walk away from it. Right a very little power somebody who has that indifference and they probably find it really frustrating given how important, because this thing some of these priorities are but like it's not really a clean break. from what was happening previously. You know he was already cartoon at arm's length from the current version of the bill, and I guess the Biden White House felt very betrayed by this I mean I don't have it your way through. The reaction was by these also up

totally shutting the door to like a dude. I ask premise thing down fewer mix and how its paid for a ripe, and then we can talk. President of a different name is point. You know bill back video you're so figure about share, but it's not really that significant a change necessarily if you're acting like reading that the tea leaves. I thought the most interesting thing was how bridge burning issue. This binding statement was now. I thought mansion gave them big a few. By going on for years also his AIDS called the White House, thirty minutes ahead of time, and then they like scrambled to try to call mansion, and he refused the call I mean I hear your point made that lake me stance on this is not surprising, but I think the way he handled it is not saying that the White House than should have like poured more. care a seat on the fire, which is what they did, but it just like. He has an equal partners,

I think it's like. Not only are you saying like he essentially can walk away from this as he did, but I think there is a deep resentment that it's like the White House is spent months courting then they went on his house, but they ve taken about the Delaware and then he does this, and so I think it's like that dual track of people being like why You know I mean this is what Charlemagne? The God was talking gamala hairs on their most recent interview like who's, the president, Joe Mansion or Joe Biden, and you know she got flustered by lack of Joseph Joe Biden, but is it can make a chicken is no kind of single handedly determining wickets their Congress and what doesn't permits for its hard to charm somebody in Delaware, Have serious regional recovering it. We can invite only when it is not that not a single fair further. You all suggested to some extent that this is not. Groovy and of at least some of these policy proposals from Democrats? Where do they go from here?

If you isn't imagines actual words, it sounds like he's suggesting that they instead focus on covered such alma cried and inflation Are they now, instead of going to start crafting a bill that addresses other covered or inflation? related issues, or is that more? Just like? Ok, that's my reason. four point eight water on this now, but we can come back to the table and talk about just appear down version in the future. I just shimmer kind of said what they're gonna do with Force Mansion and cinema to vote on. All of these things come January. That accidents can happen. They'll say will make your vote on her say where these things are so popular that Of course you do like me. I think part of the issue is that of the average person history as no

the bill back. Better is right to feel your internet search traffic for bill back better, it's very low as compared to with lasting regret at present, trying to pass a bomb care. That's actually something that nor people talked about one another on the street. I think that people cared about deeply, and here I mean here I would just kind of indifferent, except for like progressive activists and Joe mentioned, isn't really care what progressive activists think it doesn't have liked her. Set of two either me his incentives if they are to buck. By so does this give democratic the opportunity to just break out one to popular policies and say: okay, this is our climate change or desire environment bill, or this is are child tax credit bill. If I had a bet on what would happen- and I don't know that I would as a model that confidence- I know what will happen mostly because, as we ve been talking about, it does seem like both sides started.

Running the bridge here, I'm not sure the bridges burnt, but both sides were lighting their side of it on fire. I do think this idea, like fewer provisions longer term funding for a longer time is maybe they're like last remaining path for the build back, throw in the towel bill, you know whatever we end up calling this thing there was talk, remember like a week ago. Maybe that Democrats would shift to voting rights, but I know I think, that kind of like oh, we should actually be focused on this. I think that stuff is the US. Congress can do a lot of things at the same time these theoretically, but if there is a path forward for what was wants to build back better bill, I think they'll pick a few provisions

pass them again. It's like a colleague asked a very reasonable question, which is why didn't bite in have more sway over mansion and mansions of Congress, and it's exactly what it says like any support. A democratic president gets out of a senator from West Virginia is basically a win because the replacement level senator from West Virginia Republican and you're getting no support there. So I think, if build bit better is gonna move forward its basically just gonna move forward as whatever mansion wants and needs as mansion, unlike Cinema Times, has been pretty clear. What we want, which is just a few programmes that last ten years or whatever the budgeting parent, is here the math at their feet. Programmes is really complicated. Then that's it mentions been arguing rate is like Democrats

trying to do too much. The true cost of verse is closer to what the Congressional Budget office it estimated, which was far over the one point, seven trillion price tag, and then it becomes a question for Democrats will what are we cut from it? And if we do that, is it really still a plan, then that's tackling the environment, that's helping families in the answer to that Probably not. The second point, though, is that they're a real deadlines here, and that is like the child tax credit is expiring. It expires in eleven days, and so it really limits what Democrats can do to make sure that doesn't expire. They can't vote it through Congress because Republicans don't support it, so they I think you're starting to see this pivot now too well, undercurrents baking, our first its stimulus relief package was pretty popular, you know, think it's too early to say: do they like completely cut ties with baby but considering the aunties we saw up to both from mansion and the White House over this? I wouldn't be surprised if that was the direction

crafts decided to move. It certainly makes a lot more sense than humor. Just insisting may vote on this. I mean the whole way that these bills were bill, is kind of incoherent. On behalf of the White House. Even if structure be all you have climate change provisions, a lot of which are actually kind of green taken infrastructure and they haven't, you can like family related new entitlement programmes, it kind of seems like maybe breaking apart. The climate from the family, staffing, giving them names that are more descriptive. Another's hodgepodge would have been more coherent Oregon, taking the parts of the climate provisions at our infrastructure, green tax, putting them in the infrastructure bill might have been more coherent, potentially and instead of going to say it was like. Well, you might have extra marrow democrats, you the family, seven other climate stuff and wine ever who want the reverse, so kind to put out the hodgepodge, and then we can all kind of here I agree, but when you have no marchioness spare you exactly fifty votes than a dozen doesn't really work.

That, I think is remarkable is like why is there so little discussion having any republican support, because the infrastructure bill in the Senate got sixty nine votes to pass by big margin, maybe there's a way for Susie Collins early summer cows to you to fund. I list to support the climate change, green tech spending and then maybe matches affords the family stuff a little bit pared down, and you have different bills that competitive groups. Potentially such optimism need on later. Does sound unlikely but Nate right that infrastructure past it does on Today, though, I mean even the covered stimulus past must say long party lines. It's been embarrassing too late. The Republicans who voted in favour of the infrastructure, particularly in the house like Trump sent out. You know a message to his supporters along the lines of like what's primary them and get them out of office, and Mcconnell has been widely criticised for backing the by part

and so that I think it's just like the dynamics of such an because Democrats have such a thin margin, that they have this one shot at reconciliation right like that's the package, and I think that's why it's such a hotchpotch, but that's what, packed it altogether and exactly kind of what they were saying to that like. If you just try to do a climate bill merchants, not supporting and then it doesn't pass the it now. Maybe you can get Susan Collins Early Summer Caskey on board, but if you're in the White House and you're plotting out the strategy, one there's like how many reconciliation chances do you have to it's like okay, do I want to bet my ability to pass legislation on winning over a Democrat, be a very conservative, democrat or Republican, be at a more centrist republican? I'm not sure this was the wrong path. I just think maybe this was never going to work, they might still work.

maybe it was never gonna work. The other context here is that democratic pastor, two trillion dollar bill at the very beginning of the year, a one party lines, and maybe that was their shot at doing what they wanted to do, and it was largely you're giving a lot of money to states and municipalities. Giving stimulus checks to Americans in and more unemployment benefits through the year, and it was none of it- was pay for the three were higher taxes or anything like that, and so I'm curious of kind of that was their opportunity to spend and that's how they chose to do it and the infrastructure bill. Let me live pass a huge amount of new spending and they have the less democratic ministration, past Obama gear, which remain somewhat intact, but you could also do things to shore up Obamacare like a public option, for example its kind alike they just really well, it's think of some other social welfare programmes that, like noble

he's really asking for you fill it just kind of weird, and you know, maybe the infrastructure stuff should have been vital your priority when she d paths, which is a big accomplishment which now your mind. I guess for the other kind of amorphous thing that, like it just, doesn't make a lot of sense with their really going for exactly right dancing disarray back on back idea that no one's no one's asking for some of these programmes. I think a lot of people are asking for a lot of these programmes along the programmes in the build back better bill would like really help West junior residents but as night said earlier, keep are merely paying attention to the bill or, what's in the bell, that's generally true in politics

even in a bomb care. You had this thing, which has now said more people are paying attention to it, but they were like a bomb attack. Our overall was unpopular, but the specific things in it were popular, so evil and people pay attention throughout paying all that much attention, and here there not really paying attention. So I don't think that actual programmes are let's moving things here. Right, I think maybe the more accurate statement is that when you ask Americans what their concerned about right now, things like inflation are pretty high up there and this was never crafted as a bill to address that specific concern angel. Maybe people feel like when you ask them we're what's wrong. What do you want us to fix? Whatever these aren't the things that are at the top of their waste? There are other things that are at the top of their less. The Democrats are talking about that. Much Democrats could pass build backpacker and then talk a lot about it. I and do things on inflation when a bill fails it very easy to like right down. The strategic areas people made that lead it to fail

Some of those will be correct. That did he. They did make mistakes like I shall be said about the way infrastructure has sorted been subsumed by the coverage of belt back better. I think it's totally right, like I think the White House kind of screwed itself. No, don't that's have now asked a huge stimulus in response to covered and a huge infrastructure package. and we're like eat less than a year enter Biden term. That's not bad closing of the year with the headline Damson Desert, yeah, exactly it, but it s name was going out, it's kind of all in how you position at your ass, a burden and yeah, alright, we'll. Let's look back at this year. That was but first, today's podcast is brought. You buy podium,

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millions more if you've never donated to give world recommended charities before you can have your donation matched up to two hundred and fifty dollars before the end of the year or as long as matching funds last to claim your match go to give well dot, org and pick podcast and enter five hundred and thirty. Eight politics at checkout make sure they know you heard about get well from five hundred and thirty eight politics to get your donation matched and again that's give well dot. Org. A lot has happened in twenty twenty one and it can be difficult to remember everything and make sense of what will have long, lasting consequences and what might have been fleeting so going to take some time for the rest of the show to look back at what we learned about american politics in twenty, one. So, from the beginning of the year, with a violent attack on the capital by trumps borders, some options about american politics were shaken up other events,

never again may have been predictable or fallen in line with historical trends like Bygones approval leading falling throughout the year. So, let's begin with this in what ways but all were your assumptions. Are understandings of american politics challenged this year in twenty twenty one? Nate take us off I dont know kind of. Are we doing this for my January? First January seventh, or what? Breyer January. Fifth, when you had the Georgia run all night When did twenty twenty one begets? That's where we have an answer to govern January. First I'll ask you non anywhere eternal January itself was like we could spend a whole. Three pike has just talking about the month of January, so I didn't think it was obvious that Republicans after trumped loss, we remain so in Thrall to him and

First, the month of January, the George you run us we're Trump kind of was very half assed in endorsing the GNP. centres and in January, sex then said the duke. You might have an appraisal, we're going to wring our hands of trump, so people who thought no there, totally tied to travel for better or worse than this is the worst both elect orally and in terms of being other violent attack, ripe, there's still with them so I thought there was an uncertainty that resolved in a way that it s really not expect, but there was a very important development. The other big thing on the democratic status. I definitely think up. The public health responds to Kobe has remained pre disastrous under the Biden Whitehouse, ranging from dragging feed on boosters dragging feet on new therapies, have yet to be improved to extremely kind of mixed messaging, camel hair, a saying. Well, we didn't expect new areas No from the very start of this any epidemiologists, we tell you like this virus.

mutate were not quite sure which weighs it'll mutate, so You know I wasn't surprise this kind of baked and last year, but like the evidence now about the cats for Mental Health and educational development for younger people from closing schools. You what's up. whose fault per se, but to me spent a year and be very disappointed in american elites and american institution and I guess I just say that I have grown much more pessimistic about the future of America and the competency of its political elites. And the ability, the Republican Party to be a functional, lower, Casey Democratic Party. I've just been kind of a depressing here. In that sense, Latin America for you need this. Is the If the languishing article, you know so, I agree on all night points, actually like more generally. I think all my answers to these questions are somewhat unsatisfying in that, like I dont think, twenty twenty one muscle,

rising in any way where, like I thought Ex, would happen, and instead, why happened It was more like I thought, we'd get a medium out of acts- and we got a lot of acts- I thought we'd get Do you know what I mean like a somewhat exe? cream version of. Why and we got a really extreme version of why so those are the kind of ways in which the years surprised me like was, I surprised by the republican parties, continued anti small. The democratic moves. No was I surprised by like half forcefully that pursued that path? Yeah little bed was surprised. They sought to undermine the twenty twenty election again in twenty twenty one. No was a surprise day, like quite literally tried to overturn it yeah little bit that

surprising a little bit we, I was lifelong on surprised January. I was shocked by January Sex, not that guy's Dawit Isaak there was there was this. Our society has immediately before the high point we were shocked. One thing is like the themes, like of January sex, in particular the themes, we're not surprising the too, tough but shocking and the swiftness which which the Republican Party move to realign itself with tromp after, like two days of wobbling. That was surprising. The doorbell that just rang in the background I was surprised and then I'm covert. I agree with me that, like yours, new variant, where a possibility, I think, like early on in this pandemic, given we published an article, I think was by maggie- maybe there was a sort of about how they covered could just become Canada the flu where it sort of endlessly battling it, but just a

ocean away. I guess I didn't expect to still be grappling with it. So much I echo what both need make and said Bingley. I have this specific memory of reading this article from Emily Badger at the upshot, the New York Times and be, clear. I really admire work, but it was a piece done in November of twenty twenty towards the end, and it was saying how you know upwards of seventy percent. Eighty percent Republicans were saying in surveys. They they didn't think Biden had won but which He was arguing that was taken as at face value is complicated, because research has shown that answers at partisans gave on the left and the right, don't always match what they reflect too nervous fat, but rather what they wish were true or what they think they should say. I remember reading that and B. I wish we had done that you're, so smart, you know it's this concept of partisan cheerleading that in January six happened Ray and that was not partisan. Surely that was an attack on our democracy, and it is

time and time again real evidence that at least some Republicans, don't think Biden One and that something, I think is new in our politics that I had not fully understood the ramifications of that and what that means, as apologetic saint covering democracy, the parties now in doing it in a way that is still fair and objective. To the extent that objective is something you strive for, but when a party is being full fledged anti democratic, How do you cover that and do that in a way that helps people understand the issue and isn't sanctimonious, which I think is hard for a lot of that coverage, because the stakes are so big here and I don't think I fully appreciate that moving into the sheer theirs holding their point about how people who excoriated media for the coverage of geopolitics into Maxie kind of

to be frank, demoniac, is unlike media sector moaning. Essence of that's, like the exact least desirable attribute. If you wanna, persuade people that you're right, I've been actually surprise to some degree. By would, I think I was like the lack of urgency among Democrats to actually take substantive steps, to reduce threats to democracy. I was there a lot of democratic lawyers fighting court battles but, like you know, the focus on this very half ass focus on voting rights, which is probably not as being an immediate threat, is like the fact that an election results be certified if it comes down to is godson or Georgia or something, for example, have actually kind of trotted out. Hr, one a bill that was designed before the TWAIN. Twenty election didn't really make any concrete effort to pass it

You know I mean if you can read the room and the fact that, frankly democratic elite, activists are very concerned about democracy but, like there are also concerned about fifty five other things about the Kyle Britain has trial and about Joe engine and build a better and whatever else right like there's, not a lot like actual focus on it think I'm kind of like a mad English use article recently by the excellent local people are behaving they're, not behaving as though the french democracy is that urgent, they aren't sapping everything in their tracks. In saying this is the one thing we have to focus on: we pacifist Not you know pressure Joe mention other filibuster on voting rights or something Louis built whatever else. It's it's just kind of been again just to the point that I kind of thing America's best dazed are now calling for the public. Here at least really. It's kind of been that surprising, so much like, like Michael, was saying earlier kind of

within the range of resource vacations, but towards the more disappointing, and so I would ask a different question, which is not so much what might have surprised you, but what you think was actually mean. Our meeting was one thing or a couple the most significant political events of the year in the sense that they will have vacations beyond twenty twenty one, we we talking about them in the fall of twenty twenty two or their knock on effects, because it especially you follow the news media pretty diligently. Just things happen at a pace that you lose control over reviewing all the different things that happened this year. You are preparing for a segment there's like I don't remember this out. I remember that that's happened of your no recollection that June seventeen visible four upheld the affordable, correct. Yet again after you know, all the arguments stirring, Amy Coney berets confirmation hearings that she might

down all that you know that was just at this point. Didn't remember it. So what do you think, maybe I know january- is a path month of January beyond? What do you think will have implications going forward? I doesn't think you have to start Well, maybe let's couple them together like January Sex and then failure of the second Trump impeachment, because that was- moment where all our cynicism about the republican party. Notwithstanding, there really was a moment where it seemed possible. There could be a break or you know, a correction of some sort, and there wasn't a now. Followed by lots of laws limiting access to the vow lots of laws, sort of meddling with county election words and local election officials and who has power there and

lots of polling showing that the vast majority of Republicans now think that binding didn't win, free and fairly, which which he did so. I think you have to start there, the other one that I would put first is the Texas Abortion bill, not only because there is a good chance. That's gonna lead tat, brow being overturned, looking, not just be the Mississippi case, but the reason I would single out the Texas one in particular, is model of trying to get around the Supreme Court. The Texas law followed, which is like, and I'm not like a legal expert. So am I put this, but it basically like making everyone in the country a cop. Basically, and everybody can sue everybody else that model if it works with, the Supreme Court could have far reaching consequences in terms of it being mirrored and we're already seeing like the scientists in Florida. Essentially using that model like see our tee

in schools. Why new sovereign California saying they want to use it on guns right, like you, would just turned red and blue states into absolute, like all our tackling all of our dream, most parties and most controversial legislation we can pursue it yeah. I think San need your jobs. I would ever harder now. So I'm going to ask you to not name the things that make a has already name, but in terms of most important events in twenty twenty one politics, what do you think I won't be labor at them, but when Michael was starting with the impeachment trial, I think that just echoes what neat had been saying about the lack of urgency just very quickly became obvious that this was going to be politics as usual in the face of something that hardly anything but unusual, but setting aside, you know, I think something else that was historic for this year. Does have lasting repercussions is right before January,

are actually. I guess we found out that also one on January sex, but the fact that to date, product senators. One the brunt offs in georgia- that was a state that, for the first time in decades, had voted blue in the presidential election and then here A cool quote off here and I think it underscored the abnormality of which Trump was refusing to concede. That was when you know that Washington, Post article come out about him, trying to pressure the sector, Harry of State in Georgia to overturn the election results. What we saw this is actually Dan Hopkins and one of his colleagues road of peace recently for Fivethirtyeight and when they were unpacking, why things happened the way they did in Georgia. It was depressed republican turnout, which is kind of the opposite of what you expect in a traditional kind of midterm environment, and I realize two thousand and twenty one is not two thousand and twenty two but I think this kind of this question granted, we ve been debating it since twenty sixteen. But to what extent the? U s undergoing a realignment recalibration whatever term you one

Colleagues, I think we're seeing shifts in the electorate where states like Georgia may increasingly move towards Democrats were maybe parts of the MID West, a republican strongholds now will continue to see with elections, but that was a big one that I think kind of speaks to changing dynamics and our electoral politics and massively change everything, a habit and Washington. This year example rains and next year too, we will be talking about Joe Mansion, Jeffrey Jeffrey. Exactly that's a good one. Nate people of mention must the obvious one saw endorse those. I do think the continued evidence of the migration of hispanic voters away from Joe Biden Democrats is very significant as far as the political coalition to democratic thought they were building and the kind of overall like, philosophy of government. Barcelona had to add. If you like, a very neat aside, twenty twenty one

is the year where Crypto currency became a kind of mixed up covers AIDS tonight, but no is like this. Is this true anxiety when you planted stereotypes, none can go ahead, but like this is something that I think started potentially have political implications of forty three percent of men aged eighteen to twenty nine created pew, have investor trading cripple currency. As of September this year its becoming like someone, I could start to have some of our relations on politics. I don't in which it would affect politics. But you talk about things fly under the radar that in the future, you might look back say this was important at some point if it could easily more investment, Crypto becomes a major asset class, the very least that begins at economic and political implications. This is kind of like eight a year for that that you know probably and twenty twenty two. If there were others above which abruptly will there be some

Crypto some coins will be like the time person of the year or something like that right really. kind of this year, where the infection point I think, actually occurred. but that's like six best answer because, like it's tearing, took all the five best answers now I think you're right and I've heard lawmakers, particularly younger one acres start talking more and more in a way. That's not just like. Oh that's a thing, but talking how to regulate it in gear mayors around the country. Talking about like how we're gonna be the next and he's gonna be unencrypted capital. The atoms one of us wants to receive his salary, or at least the first three months in crypto. Unlike wants to make New York the creditor cap blot on this, as we Europeans can start taking it seriously, I think your fashion, memory the game stop stuff. That was this year, re like early air

This was the year was. I was like, oh, I have to like kind of look into this now and and understand it, which I've been resisting doing for a long time. Let me throw another one out there and see what you guys think what about just like inflation? Yes, I have that on the list. So what is it November annual inflation? six point, eight percent, the highest rate and nearly forty years. I think I think there is some arguments right now that inflation is mostly being caused by pandemic staffed and so as that eases so well nation. So maybe will look back and be I go. That was not a long term problem, but I I don't I feel like. Maybe we have overlooked the other thing that really is impact on people's daily lives, which is is covered a hundred and people, a hundred thousand people we set covered. Ok, but like also that Africa has of peoples And sets a mentality easily affected has appeals career planning, whether its between white collar professionals

so working remotely our time where people but like I think people have reiterated their attitude toward work and work life balance. I think it's a terrible term that Vienna people are we considering how they want to like a gauge with their professions, and I think, that's pretty significant to the yacht in all but kind of like levels of the economy. Not just you know the White Collar factional class, but of course some of the most jobs over is at the lower wage end of the spectrum. Yeah, that's significant, I think it may have lunch reverberations, I will say gone back to like where we start this, which was like what was surprising. The comparison I would make what is like in the run up to the twenty sixteen election, where we were sort of writing. These articles saying Trump- has a path here. This is a real possibility, and our forecasts- opposition it as a real possibility in literally I've is editing articles that we're like tears. I can win. Yes, Trump has a path. And then I was still completely shocked when you one

In the same way, I'm maybe not shocked us too strong word, but I have been surprised by just how much cove it has continued to tat effect. Everything I mean, I think it's like in so many ways, really politically health, wise twenty twenty one just feels like a cat. Innovation of twenty twenty and that one of the big ones you I'm interested to see how covered continues to sheep politics. I built twenty twenty one was a year during which the politics of cholera became a lot more complicated in twenty twenty. It was much Democrats are significantly more covered, cautious and or the argument against Trump their campaign, and twenty twenty was a large part that you wasn't being responsive to the pandemic. But when you wonder just arguing against things. Trump is doing and you have to create your own path forward and which you balanced, normalcy, with caution. Things got messy and like across the political spectrum, have seen people be driven by them

opinions about covert and how we should respond in ways that dont really mad with their politics, and that seem very interesting to me and I think it will- and I thought it might have subsided by the end of twenty twenty one by it very clear that one of the biggest political issues at the beginning of twenty twenty two is gonna, be how we respond to this new wave of the COMECON variant, unlike whose had a who still wants to be cautious, who, you know is still resisting vaccination. All kinds of things are still going to be tents, any part of it is people withdrawing and isolating more into their own spaces. May MRS Tight and, like the disapproval, abide among younger voters potentially, like the people check it, I can agree, I very much and they have wasted disengaging disconnect, sometimes by themselves, sometimes with other groups of people who are like minded that a kind of orthogonal too, like the political system, people they just started to politics out

which means people who are engaged in politics, artless representative, and that has a lot of negative consequence. I think- We ve got all these elections with record high turnout, that's fair! That's where the one When I just wanna like emphasise again and was making does, I think this is one of the big question marks going into twenty twenty two is what effect as politics have uncovered and what effect does covert have on politics rikers like so far, politics have had a huge effect on the way this pandemic has played out right. It's affected whether people have gone back scenes or not. It affected, like all the mandate stuff, it's affected masking or other kinds of bathing as gale and sang in twenty twenty one. It became

where the political line is uncertain. Behavior has became less clear like two thousand and twenty. If I were to say hey it's April, two thousand and twenty I'm going to have a huge party with five hundred people in an indoor gymnasium, you would say that's a bad eye. That's really stupid, but the longer this goes on the harder it is to keep pushing off major life things. How long do not visit your parents are in laws for how long you delay a wedding like, I know a lot of people who delay a wedding and then eventually got married. So it's like it just becomes less clear kind of where the politics our uncovered and therefore, where covert is on politics. I think I'm extent it has become front.

Then across political lines to because people wanna go out and do things and not be cautious anymore may not necessarily be all Republicans and people who want to be more cautious and Dr runs vaccinated around them right now sir, we d all Democrats leap customer of the average Atlantic article about like? Should I cast my birthday party is not like a normal person

and even most people who are liberals kind of got back to normal at some point in twenty twenty one, with its good or bad. I don't know, but like don't take neurotic college, you two people in big cities who write relating to be indicative of kind of heavy average Americans living its heart. That I mean we should be able to have a world where, like that kind of article can exist and another one where somebody is more flexible on how they move and navigate in the world can coexist and not gaslight the other. I dont think that's possible and our current environment, but I do think we have to be careful with some of the anxieties we see Manifest Sid and people cause. Eight hundred thousand people have died, who didn't need to die, and I think that has manifested in different ways for people and how they react to the krona virus, and some of it doesn't seem rational to you or I, but I think it just complicates how people are kind of navigating all this

I wish we could have more productive conversations around it. That weren't meant to like alienates certain swaths. That's a thing and by was pushed back made a low, but, unlike the use of the word, an erotic like I don't It is an erotic like. I think there are million reasons why people are are not anxious about aspects of the corona virus and its Ike My very point sometimes, like I said earlier, it was fairly simple to know what to do or not to do in some cases, but you know what time ANA gets more and more complicated. Knowing like is this a good eye? yes, it's a bad idea. It gets more and more personal right. It's what makes sense for you in, and your life circumstances, and so too serious. Point like in some way I wish we could have more of those. I don't know exactly what article referring to, but like more of those discussions of hay

is this a good idea. Is this a bad idea, but obviously in M, in a more rational understanding way than we have them now

quickly to invent a like urinary, your cow labile, one. One right, I mean look. I think that most people have realised at some point that light must go on because even though eight hundred thousand people have died, you can't just put your life on hold and definitely some people were like that. From the start, some people, like that, once they have actually to different time, is ripe and the number of work have not realised that is relatively small and are over represented in. I think the target audience for the Atlantic, or five thirty, eight or whatever. Maybe it's good, maybe maybe it's bad at like most people are not willing to, like micromanage risk. So much necessarily the pulling says that seventy five percent of Americans out these top holsters their living lives back to normal. I've been part of that now and not trying to downplay any of their narrow Caesar anxieties. People have been a the ways in which society has

that's normal, whether that's going to a sporting, a bad eating out at a restaurant schools or now mostly reopened. I think there might be something we're like people don't want to go back to the office and that's playing out in some of this too, in very clearly going to go back to the office. I know I know I know I like. I think you know a lot of young people you now to return back to the economist for also really wanna go back to the office rakes like your first job remote. It's it's not the same right. You don't get to overhear conversations. Ask colleagues question: have them walk you who had set her up, but it is, I think, and of struck by that- disconnect where it's like some people have moved fully back to normal, except when it comes to this idea of going back to the house, and I think that just playing out now and really complicated ways where it's like, oh mccrone, spreading, but lake restaurants are shutting down offices are now look. Ok, you don't have to come back again and I think there's kind of decisive relief from at least a good section of the population do not deal and not even

typically I. What do you guys? I want to see every day. I think we have made it clear from the direction this proposition is gone and that the parties are covered are not going away at they're going to endure into. when you twenty, two like odyssey, hopefully not beyond right at this point knows we ve also mentioned lots of other things that happened in twenty twenty one. There will continue to shape our lives way forward. I will say we're going to have another kind of your end rat. That's gonna, be a little more lively, more of a game or maybe a little more light. Hearted then discovered station was next week. So stick with us, it's not all doom and gloom from here, but I think we're gonna leave it there for tonight, so think you'd need Sarah and MIKE. I think it thinks game. Think so, thank you and have a happy holiday. I would see

back here next Monday, although that'll be free recorded. So I actually already know that next week's by thousands more fun cause it's already been recorded anyway. Mighty is given droop tony child is in the virtual control room politically Curtis is on video editing. An MRI league is our enter. You d get in touch by emailing us at pipe concept: five thirty dot com You can also persuaded us with any questions or comments, if you're afraid of the show leave us a reading or review, and the Apple pie cast Store Board someone about us thanks for listening and will cease her.