Who oh and welcome to the five thirty politics pie cast I'm Galen Group on Wednesday, Alabama Governor K, Ivy signed into law a bill banning nearly all abortions in the state. It's the most restrictive abortion Passed in the: U S in recent history and its part of a broader trend of state level, changes to abortion law that are likely headed to the Supreme Court. So today we're gonna, look at the trends in how abortion laws, changing and what the legal and political strategies appear to be behind those changes- and here we made it our senior writer and legal, reporter Amelia Thomson devout hammy area again and also is senior writer. Perry, Bacon, Junior Highbury and both of you have been working on worries about the legal and political thinking behind these recent abortion laws or encourage listeners to go check out those stories on the website? But let's begin with giving listeners a sense of the landscape Amelia? How?

which have state level. Abortion laws changed in the past year or so so. It turned to note is that we ve seen and uptake in laws that directly challenge row versus Wade, so Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Ohio all passed laws that ban abortion when a fetal heart beat is detected which can happen as early as six weeks into pregnant. And then we have this new Alabama bill that just makes abortion illegal altogether by banning and at every stage in pregnancy, which is, as you mentioned, really really unusual. Over the past decade, though, we ve seen changes and abortion law on the state level. What is distinct about the past year, or so this Do we really seen since twenty ten has been making it more difficult to get abortions in various ways so really affecting abortion,

access rather than the legality of the procedures. So you would see laws that make it harder for abortion clinics to stay open, waiting periods, that you know, women have to wait a couple days, but for their first appointment and actually getting an abortion. You know, and a lot of these were kind of framed in terms- Oh you know these are restrictions on medical facilities. These are about women's health in various ways. You know you can obviously debate the extent to which that's true, but the framing has now really changed. I mean these laws are very clearly about just making abortion illegal in these states, and so it's a really huge shift Turbary. Why is this happening how is it all based on Cavanaugh appointment to the Supreme Court? That's a big

harder than you seen. Law makers in Alabama Ohio specifically say that even then he nodded Justice Kennedy who's been who who has voted for, and you know, who's voted down. Some abortion limits, who's up, others he was a swing vote before, and the assumption alot of state at the same level as the cabin, to the right of Kennedy, and you might may now have five judges who, if not, which you ve mentally strike down Roby Wade where they are? Do instead of just allow states to limit abortion in other ways, they might accept stronger limits, they might uphold those. So what did I do? The cabinet thing is the big factor. Here I was There are two other changes that are going on to them. The first is that the Republican Party the people who want in twenty eighteen in some places are more conservative on abortion and those who were there before I mean Civilian Ohio, for example, John K,

it was the governor he had vetoed two of these heart be bills, the new governor might do wine was fine with enjoy the governor Nathan. Deal was kind of, moreover, Motto Republican, he very weary of any kind of bike backlash from corporate Amerika, and so he was nervous. But these kinds of laws, the new governor in Georgia, Brian Camp, campaigned on that he would sign a heart, be law. He's done so think. There's a big back to two and the third thing. Your gradually seeing. This is that they used to be pro choice, pro abortion, right wing of the Republican Party and then get smaller each day has been declining gradually, but in Alabama there was a push by some state legislature to say I'm for this. But I want to have some kind of rape and insects. Incest, exemption that used to be easy to get past and republican states. This time, no, his colleagues said that

There is no exemptions here, except the life of the mothers. I think what you're seeing is in their concerns. Politics. There is very little room for peace choice, views or approach ways- people even more so than in the past, and so it's not purely a judicial strategy. The party has truly moved to the right on abortion, this, my senses that the party has moved- I mean I'm not your job, you bush- was a pretty pro life present in the variety of ways, but I do think Trump. Even if you look at his wreck abortion is? Maybe parliament, the right of Bush on Debbie? I do think there is evidence that the parties has fewer people.

Pushing in the other direction and abortion. We must all the movement is opposing and in passing stricter laws and very little movement in the approach I say so media. What is the legal strategy here? As Perry said, people were passing. These laws have been open about their goal of getting it to the Supreme Court. What is the path that the Alabama bill or any of these heartbeat laws that would essentially make abortion illegal after six weeks? What would the path b? this spring, they are all being challenged. So that is the first step and that check that is happening Then they're gonna have to make their way through the lower courts. I do not see a universe in which these are upheld by district. Let's just because they are so clearly contradictory to that the precedent under rovers his weight- I mean you know it's, it's always possible, but it seems unlikely and then, though, of course,

peeled it's interesting, because the appeals courts and actually, in particular, the court that the album a case is going to be going to have a sort of been a little bit more willing to kind of pushed the on follow up on abortion. I dont know that that means with these laws that so clearly go against rovers. This way that there cannot uphold them, but then it would be appealed to the supreme so we're talking about a process that you know usually a year would be quick, it could get accelerated. I think it's also worth noting that there are other abortion related cases that are in the Supreme Courts, applying, and these are a little bit more of the strategy that I think Perry was sort of alluding to which is. If you want to restrict abortion rights there are we to do that that don't involve just striking down, grew versus weighed and are frankly, probably more palatable,

to John Roberts and possibly also even Cavanaugh, more assertive concerned about the court. Maybe not aiming to political, maybe not taking an incredibly high profile political case during an election year and so you know the strategy there would be. You bring some of these restrictions that don't directly challenge row and you kind of chip away at Rome. That way until There is a point. You know years from now when the core says you know actually, ok, we're actually gonna overturned This is order in a situation where functionally we are in a post row versus Wade. America, The people obviously were passing. These laws are hoping that they have and the jury,

the conservative majority on the Supreme Court- that's willing to contemplate just striking down row, that's a gamble, though, frankly with John Roberts on as chief justice on the court. I think so you know will see how it plays out, but the first thing would be for it to working it's where it through the lower accords. The supreme Court is going to be looking at further restrictions on abortion, a Harvey bill and an outright ban from Alabama. Do they have to take up all of those cases? What is the court going to be weighing in terms of what actually considers? Ultimately mining? They don't need not have to take any cases they don't want to take one thing that we usually prompt the court to take. These cases is if there are disagreements in the lower courts. So I think one thing that would make it less likely that you know they would feel real obligation to take these cases. If there was a kind of consensus, at least among you, know about how they might move forward with

do you know if all the courts are ruling the same way, it's easier for them to Just say you know we're going to uphold what the appeals court said. If the appeals court said that you know this, this laws on constitution, and then that's a way of kind? Do you know they have to they'll have to respond, but they don't have to take action. They don't have to explain why you know it takes four votes to grant a K. Is to be heard at the Supreme Court, so its past Ivy League. If the afore conservatives wanted to take this case, they don't need John Roberts. It just seems. It would seem a little bit curious to me that they would take this case. Not having a pretty solid sense that John Roberts would vote with seven, going about the Alabama case there, the alligator, but I mean this also goes for the universe. Six week, bands to I mean it might be possible that, from a legal perspective, you know the Alabama

Has all of these implications that have to do with person hide, it might be too complicated. Legally, it might be simpler to just take one of the six week. Cases and say you know no rovers. This way no longer applies. The states can do what they want and just leave it at that. So basically of the Supreme Court has a whole bunch of options in deal. With the issue of abortion going forward, but it seems likely- and maybe it will make to the Supreme Court, but it seems likely that in any case, abortion is going to be an issue in the federal courts during an election year. Twenty twenty Perry I mean what are the politics of that- is that something that the right wants is something that the left wants. How does that player in the twenty twenty environment, so most poles suggests the majority of American somewhere around. Sixty percent believe that Abortion should be legal in most cases, particularly you're. Talking with the first.

Master when most abortions take place, so I think that the rights are on sort of safe ground there, and you seem this today politically already, where I think every candidate. Joe Biden De Kamel era to John Laney on you know to Greece and Yellow ran to Bernie Sanders, have all condemn this Alabama law. So that tells me they think about is a very safe here for them to oppose and be the near the democratic approach or sporty. They seem fairly counter with it, but I would say I think the Republicans are very comfortable with their position as well. They may be the data may be show that the majority, the public as against the Republicans on abortion, but that's been true for a long time and the Republican Party is the pro Life party and they believe in their firmly, and you ve seen President Trump believes that in order to keep the evangelical christian part of about party behind him he's lean into the abortion as you and he has from up from his appoint he's, been very

about wanting to see rose struck down, so I do think bid. Did this issue. They come out, but I'm not sure like helps either side in part, because I think most people know which parties my party, which one isn't already think that something is different here just because a sort of the past strategy on abortion re resort of restricting clinics and making it harder to get abortion in various ways that was quite effective in reducing the number of clinics. In certain if the country I do think what's happening now is just nearer to people, because when that was happening, you know. What's it like people, don't necessarily know? Okay, there's only one abortion clinic left in Missouri, but it just, I think, was harder for people to wrap their heads around the totality. Of the restrictions that were and are passing starting in twenty ten.

So I do wonder if this darkness of the issue now makes a difference politically and helps galvanise Democrats a little more. On this I mean as prevention, obviously that the Democratic Party is very much the pro choice party, so maybe there's not room for a lot more he hasn't there, but that's something I'm thinking about. On the other hand, I actually the feudal heartbeat bills. I think our kind of interesting, because people don't necessarily know that a fatal heartbeat can come so early in a pregnancy, and I thought Keyser pull. That was showing majority support for feudal heartbeat bills, but then they subsequently told the respondents that you know this actually could mean a ban at six. We support fell pretty dramatically, so I thought that was interesting to just in thinking about how these bans are framed and

Another reason why I think you know- maybe the Alabama Ban presents this in certain starker and clearer terms for people and that that feels a canoe thing to me: I do think I would say that it goes to the way the Republican Party, I think, is changing. I mean, if you look it like the governor of Georgia. Brian Cowen his predecessor, Nathan Deal really campaign Is this sort of business, friendly Chamber of Commerce Republicans and there was carrying his coalition versus brow, Camp ran, is kind of a trump guy. Canada he's the the man for the rural for the even I do think that by pushing abortion so hard. The Republicans are kind of thinking about their cool, and, if are looking for my guess, is this of course, the idea that looking for fewer white people, degrees and and more people likeable without degrees, for example. I think it let it plays into the way their coalition is changing and it goes to a more it goes. The way Europe is running. I think it makes a

the wind can of worms suburban women the suburbs, but I also think it easier for them to it. Also like reinforces day that they are the kind of culture The conservative party, which is the way tromp is campaigning for present anyway and Perry. Is that the died amongst white voters. The education divide also applies to abortion, data suggests that men and women is actually does not preclude a gender divide on abortion, but there is a divide based on age, which is the younger people, tend to be more supportive abortion rights and is by basic education. People with college degrees and masters degrees tend to be. More supportive abortion rights is a little. Chicken question there, which is like? Are you a Democrat because the port of worship. Rights orders becoming a I mean you're more likely to support abortion rice because your Democratic Party, a Democrat, I don't know the answer that question, but I do think it does play I was divides a bit. Yes,

yeah I just see the other thing is- I think you are alluding to this a little bit parried by you know if, if this does get that the question of rovers swayed potentially being overturned to the Supreme Court, that would be the ultimate gift to christian conservatives, and so that that's worth noting two of your thinking about our Democrats, can it be more energized? Will this this can also be incredibly enter? I say to this really important part of companies, so we touch us on this a little bit, but we read various pieces over the past Supreme Court term, saying, You know, Cavanaugh is a bit more moderate. He is the most likely to side with the majority of the court. So far in this term has Cavanaugh, given us reason to believe that he would overturn Roby wait. Amelia Oh, I think we have no idea. I mean I would say anything like

any early analyses of the court have today taken mine that we're not done with term yet we still have some extremely politically hot cases that need to be decided. We don't know how cabinet will rule on those. They won't necessarily tell us anything about how he would rule on abortion by you know they they could something about how he deals with these more politically sensitive issues, and then it does seem Lake Roberts and maybe also cabin. I have been trying to keep this a quiet term after the fireworks over cabin oz confirmation, but you know I mean I just think I don't I just appointment. We still figuring out his place on the court, but I don't, I just think, have and we frankly won't know until the court starts actually ruling on cases that have to do with abortion. I think we sort of, you know. I mean I

think we sort of do no in the sense that I hate the phrase of the overturn window, but I do think visit. Acting here, which is too like come out with, like very sort of, three abortion proposals here. And then like. Maybe Cavanaugh and robbers don't want to endorse those, but if this The idea is generally to throw a lot of limits on abortion at the court basically hope this, some of that, judges at the lower court levels defend? Some of those rulings uphold the abortion limits, some of them, maybe not the Alabama one, but some of the others and in if Robertson Cavanaugh, are constantly forced to basically defend the right to an abortion daily, be eager to do that I mean they are. They are clear confirmation, operative movement that considers Roby way to be a terrible decision Think John Robinson cabin. I want to defend abortion rights very much so I don't know I think in the long run. I do think that

going to sign on things that ship RO in general, this prediction, but I think one ideal fairly, confident But I've been like within that? There is a huge range of possibilities, ammunition, say. Actually there there has been a little bit of a signal from Cavanaugh about where he is on some of these issues, because there was the Supreme Court blocked a Louisiana access law from going into effect earlier in the term, and the vote was five four with Roberts and the liberals voting to block the law.

Cavanaugh Road, a descent until it does seem lake. I think we can say he's he's probably open to some of these kind of initial for ease into you know, maybe chipping away a row parries totally right that I don't need a Robertson. Cavanaugh are not going to be excited about defending abortion, rights and they're, not gonna, be where Kennedy was even serve. You no kind of in the middle and we're not sure which re they're gonna go, but the thing about what's happening now. I think that is is really hard to predict is just how far and how fast there willing to go and that I think we have less of a sense of just in terms of these very extreme oz. I think it's a much safer bad that, as abortion cases start coming to the court, they will take operating

these two chip away at row. I think it's just whether they want to go for the Jackal are basically and Amelia on the topic of state level. Changes to abortion law Republicans are not the only ones who are passing who was in legislatures that they fully control right, we're seeing changes and democratically controlled states as well. So what kind of changes. Are we seeing there yeah. So we ve seen some states that are sort of trying to prepare for a post row at future by, for example, passing laws that they had on the books from pre row that word sort of trigger abortion restrictions going in you a fact, and then their resort of earlier this year, Virginia in New York kind of went into this territory of oh we're, gonna expand abortion. Even further and that didn't, go so well for them, and I kind of tend to think that for the Democrats, it's it's a sea.

For a place to stay and if we want to try to help preserve the status quo because Perry correct me if I'm wrong, but I think support for legal abortion in the third trimester is a much dicey or proposition then support or legal abortion in the first trimester. So you know, Democrats are that's more politically shaky territory for them. Yes? That is, I believe, a word for an abortion is majority and the first trimester their majority in a clear majority in the third trimester, and only think there's attention there because of your talking about the democratic base, there are probably people who do want to see abortion rights expanded by it also clearly gave trump and others something to seize on. Our wrapping up here, maybe there's a little naive, but why does abortion loom so large? In our politics I mean: does it fit just like neatly into right in law,

and so, which is something that people would like to talk about as much as possible because they feel that it up their base. What is the reason for this playing such a thing control because also it's worth saying that their it doesn't actually fit neatly Nelson Are we into right and left right? There's like a third or significant trunk of Democrats who are pro life and there's a third or significant chunk of Republicans who are protein So my since this is you know, we hear Kentucky. We had actually one of his heart be bills pass and the state, let us citizen the Republic inside CAP, referring to Washington and comparing it, and you know saying it the kind of moral failing of the kind slavery was and then a few black Democrats and those that are here Kentucky said no, please stop. Comparing aboard to slavery, but what I would say is

This is an issue that I think looms large, because there's a huge part of the Republican Party, a significant part of the christian conservative part who feel aboard. Is martyr who feel abortion is a violation of person and and is innocent as an open abominate and they must be eliminated from the country, so they feel very strongly about. This was driving this in its and seriously held view, and I think this was important is did because you know we have like other. We have twenty two states were Republicans control of state legislator and the governor. So in those places of abortion, gifts of but the agenda because you have very strong, passionate part of party. An argument that this should be our number one is just not acknowledge as an economic issue. This is a moral cars that are Aren't you should be involved in, and so no one can really argue against Sudan on the report. Besides, I think that it was driving. I think this issue. This is one where the Republicans are driving the debate, but I think it

from a place where they feel this is an issue where it is not just a sort of a issue of like politics. This is an issue of Morals Olympic who feel this way and they have a very our voice anaerobic embody. Well, it's been heart of this christian concern. If a gender also really since the beginning and arguably abortion, the legalization of abortion was one of the core issues that spurred waving dolicho Protestants to start really engaging with politics in the late seventies early eighties. So I think that's one of the reasons also that you know the idea have a supreme court that finally might be able to reconsider row feels like it's worth. Taking this gamble for is as Perry mentioned. These are. These are deeply held moral beliefs in this is also a battle that you know has has been being fought for decades,

and I would say I think it's just been. It's been harder for Democrats to risk. And also I mean there's theirs Certainly, a segment of the party, I think for whom it's a sort of self determination issue for women, and it's all you know tied up in this idea that women, you know women, obviously getting to make their own reproductive choices, but you know, I think, one reason that it also remained around. State, so powerful is, did it's hard to really be pro abortion. You can be proud choice by the the sense. I think you know it from a lot of people on the left. Even as you know, we should be in a world where you know of maybe abortion should should always be an option, but you know you don't mess. It's not necessarily a good thing that people are in that position of having to decide whether to have an abortion, and you know me

You would want to have better access to contraception or something like that, and so I think the other reason it's just. It's been such a power, full galvanizing issue for this really important segment of the Republican Party and then its So just it's kind of hard to come up with an argument on the other side, there really matches that, and so I think that also kind of explains how we we ve arrived at. This but I was struck today by how much not just the female It is not just the sort of liberal Canada's like Bernie Sanders sooner Warren, but vice Biden. Tim Ryan, be male. More moderate candidates were very emphatic today and wait to speak on this Alabama issue, and what that tells me is the day Credit party itself is more,

warm abortion rights one, but also, I think women do have a more powerful voice in the Democratic party. You remember. Ninety two Clinton was famous book. I must say MR saying, abortion to be safe, legal and also rare, and I dont think Joe Biden will sound. That way. Maybe you will, but I dont think, a lot of male democrats with sound the way. It goes to the point that the issues around women and women's autonomy and women to control their bodies is part of the Democratic Party to the point where male Democrats feel they have to respect that. Maybe do believe that themselves do, but I do think issues of women's empowerment enough for me to and so on are like a very big part. The democratic party in this driving and that's, why you see New York in Virginia wanting to affirm abortion rights do is, I think, that's part of where the parties coalition is as well right I mean I do, I do think that's been a big and important transition. That's that's happened and again

that's. Another reason why maybe the starkness of what's happening now too, is going to make it easier for Democrats to just framed this more clearly as a kind of empowerment and self determination issue for women, in a way that this sort of patchwork of abortion restrictions that we were seeing before couldn't be as easily or rope. Other. Imagine this large and politics and will continue to come up over the coming year and a half, but. Leave. It therefore now think your million base and that you bury please give him. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow, as in the control room, you can get in touch by e mailing us at podcast at five thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, cast store or tell about us thanks for listening and we will cease.