Shoot. Tony. I just touched the the angle dryness everything up: continuity error. I know the read it begun crazy era I now hello, nothing to the fact that in politics pack ass, I chant Matlin Debbie under at five thirty eight Galen is out sick, so improvising here, antidote show will be discussing God covered in the mid term, so the usual stuff is passed. Will dive into new pull that Americans blame from his fortune? Is it a higher power or just the unending uncontrollable unyielding chaos of the universe as we live in it then will put it to what causes so much by misfortune. These days, cuban nineteen, I nearly will discuss the only criterion the novel corona virus. How concerned Americans are and should be and what it might mean for politics in the coming months

Finally, is time for the birthrate stuff staff running in TWAIN Way to whose not and what that tells us about how politicians are signing up? chances in the mid terms and beyond, and I'm feeling this Abrams better work and Doktor OZ will all be mentioned. So a lot on our plates Zaleski on the extension of the terrestrial and to help us make sense of it all are three of my colleagues part its editor. Sarah processing hi, Chad glad you could be with us, and we got senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson, Turbot, hello, Amelia in Chad and elections, endless Jeffrey Skelly, high Jeff, page, add archives. Let's begin with good use appalling, which this week is prompted by a new pole, frumpy Razor Jenner about faith and finding explanations for ineffable tragic. Essentially,

She asked if the five hundred people about the philosophical questions that we walk around with every day, the kind of thing that you may be spent hours discussing on an old life on the labour roof. With that person that you are trying to impress during freshmen orientation weak Maybe did the postal fastening nuggets the vast majority of Americans over eighty five percent at least somewhat ascribe misfortune and suffering to the vagaries of the universe rather than a higher power. For example, sixty eight percent of Catholics think people who don't believe in God can make to Heaven, but only twenty one percent. Jellicles, think the think the same and the majority of American say they thought about big questions like the meaning of life in the past year, so before getting the good is appalling and methodology and researchers I'm curious ability to allow thinking about religion and politics, resale price

by the numbers, rooms, pupil wasn't on the hall and that's because I think from the illogical perspective, which is very rarely get to talk about this pipe casts. I'm I'm excited yeah. This is kind like the way that religion and in particular Christianity, is structured right. It's to help us make sense of suffering and to help people understands what role does God? lay in a world where bad things happen, at the time I mean we're, obviously living through a global pandemic right now, but people in their everyday lives are always dealing with issues like illness loss and a lot of the christian theology in particular house people sort of work through that without coming to the conclusion that there is a man up in the sky, who is saying Amelia it's time for a bad thing to happen to you.

Right now. So I thought it was a really interesting call at length pulls like this allied not to take my hand, for they could use appalling bags appalling part of this, but I didn't think it was surprising. I'm curious another folks think, though, so that that was really interesting in the pool. Was this disconnect like America's puritanical calvinist routes on display with seventy one percent, saying that suffering is mostly a consequence of people's own actions, get. A similar share, sixty nine percent? said suffering is mostly result of the way society is structured, and I just thought that two contradictory looks at that question in both almost equally represented in the pool reflect some of our larger politics to not just kind of how people think about theology, and God do. I liked him of his poor is that it in two. I think the world view that we all walk around with that, maybe, as in the political life, yeah I'll- do that we walk around with but surely informs what we think is the right

thing to do in fact family and also for the country potentially, and I think we don't reporting- and you read some stories about the role that this kind of relationship with a higher power and with destiny in fate has played in the pandemic responses now that we ve had a lot of conversations about what one can do to protect yourself and others from the pandemic and some passing, hesitant, Americans or Hooligans Batman. They at least cited this idea that whenever God will as is got well in and out of it I time and my time and when you actually look at this point. You see that there is percent of Americans who believe actually in that idea, when removed it from covert or from the politics of covered by the vast majority Americans to think that its people who are causing payments

ring to one another and I'll just jump in and say that I mean this isn't just in the context of the pandemic. Pew did a pole about what people think gods role is in politics back in twenty twenty and they asked about whether God shows Trump and Obama to be president and very small. Shares of Americans also think that God is sort of a bear, picking, winners and losers, because God agrees with policies it with five percent, say God shows trunk to become president, because Gudge approves of terms policies. That was it Sixteen again, this policy for the twenty twenty election and three percent said that about Obama and then a bigger share, though said that the election must be part of God's overall plan, but it wasn't necessarily God saying I like what Trump says you know. I want a wall between the: U S, a Mexico's

tromp is going to be present, and I ain't that a kind of interesting distinction to whether people believe in divine master plan that we're all part of- and we too can understand the pieces, but its leading somewhere versus directly intervening in specific advance and directing the course of what happens in people's lives. I think something like a global pandemic or an election. It's maybe a little easier for people who do believe that God has a hand in what happens in their life Some see it as part of a broader trajectory that we ve been set on rather than the hand of God again coming down and steering things in one direction or the other. I'd really couldn't shake. The context of the panel

They can reading this poor. That obviously wasn't just about the pandemic, that it makes me think of a story that Natalie Jackson who's. The research director at the Public Research Institute for religion had, earlier this year. That was looking at. Why so many evangelicals won't get vaccinate and it's what we all are touching on about this idea of you know. Everything in life happens for a reason which sixty percent said in that Paul was how they felt, and so, their own polling. They had found that eighty eight percent of White Evangel calls believe the God controls everything and that's why some don't wanna get vaccinated, because its God's will there's also a lot of end times. Thinking that's present and even Jellicoe fates. Anti pandemic can be a manifestation of that and prior research also shows that some evangelical Christians will rationalize illnesses like cancer is God's well, which I think you're also seen play out in the pandemic.

So is the right one. Most Americans kind of saved me. No bad things happened a good people a lot of this outside of our control. I just thought. It was interesting how a lot of american still, though also fall into this category of weight, while either things happened for reason, God has a hand in it or, like people are somehow still accountable to this I think plays out in the pandemic but elsewhere as well. I want to ask you been doing a lot of work on a portion, and I've see therefore on the religious right and have a religious right has made arguments to try and make a more argument about. restricting abortion rights, and I'm wondering how all that intersects here with what we're talking about now is that abortion. It has long been discussed as a moral issue and yet its people who have to do the work too change the laws writer or to challenge the law that I'm wondering how all that,

squares with potentially people who think that it's got will to change laws in a specific way. It's really interesting, and I think of a phrase that you're here alive, if you go to a conservative Christian, con Friendster confound of some kind which is and here for a time such as this is from the story of a stir in the Bible and basically Esther easier addition, where she can intervene and save the jewish people from an almost genocide at the hands of a genocide of maniac? Who is the right hand, man to the king if he happens to be married to and she is jewish? So she is in this unique position where she can stand up an interview for her.

and her uncle says to her. You were here for a time such as this, and this is a phrase that folks will say why, when they're talking about policy issues and sort of intervening in the political space that you are here to sort of move things on the trajectory toward the rain and the good- and I think that's very much. The way Folks, you view abortion, as this kind of moral catastrophe see themselves within the legal and political space. We heard a lot of comparisons between rovers swayed and policy versus Ferguson during the arguments on abortion at the Supreme Court last week. Lesabres version, of course, is the decision in the late nineteenth century that instituted separate but equal, and when you talk to folks,

in the pro life movement. Those who are saying you know where we're at with abortion is removing toward abortions. Brown versus board of Education were moving towards this moment when things will be righted. So it is this interesting access between feeling bigger part of God's plan, feeling that things are not right in the world that we live in a fall in world where things are in just bad. Things happen to good people. The world is not imbalance and you, as a person, have free, will and have the age

see to move things in that direction, but also that you are part of a bigger divine plan that is moving the world in that direction as well, and you don't think that's really contradictory for people I mean you know like the idea of having free will within gods. Denied plan can sound a little like well. How can you have both of those things, but I think it's, the idea that you are in a place in this plan where you can step in and intervene and help God's will happen, and that is how many people see their role in Basel political fights and bringing the country back to the place where it's supposed to be birds or with a lot of discussion about the rooms of the palace, but with a treatment for the question, is this God? Use of Poland is appalling, so

something over this pool which, as we all know the answers to these questions, they are inherently unanswerable. Depending on your your worldview, I suppose, and few has it interesting that the roll out of a note in the pool that says that they were we wrestles research into really wrestled with how you measure these kind of big philosophical things when peoples Nations for the unknowable things in life might be. There and might not be something that upholsterer could think about before they actually asked the question And so what they are doing, this giving a variety of ways to make sense of the causes and consequences of suffering, and then they gave the red response the opportunity to fill in the blank essentially to provide their own reasons. Why terrible things happen to good people sometimes and Jeffrey? I was thinking it's been a long time and balls. I was learning what you thought about this

hybrid of giving people pre existing language to say they supported unsupportable are given the opportunity to film the blank I mean. I think it's kind of a fascinating way of trying to get. was opinions in him to take an example and the exit polls in a we talked about those lot after the the Virginia election November. Looking at export data, but the thing with the x because they might ask what was the most important issue, but they only give the correspondence for choices so sure maybe a lot of them said schools really important or the economy by them. Neither soldiers picking from a list of for this your attitude of a much wider range of responses by getting peoples and words, and then you can try to group them in some way. For example, gallop does something like this when they ask about the most important problem that the gun faces when they talk to a response, and then they try to group them together as best they can after hen responses? So I think it's cool,

I am doing in terms of maybe your opening the scope of potential answers you're not forehand narrowing the range of answers for people, because here today, especially with a subject like this, where she touched on people's on explanations for things could be very of it is in Craddock very, very specific to them. I think it gives you, as our change, really broaden the range of potential answers. Of course, I don't think this is really feasible for a lot of poles, and this is a very large Paul. Clearly, the subject matter is really really big thing about like an election, Paul or even like issue poles in a lot of pulsars might not have the resources to go in and actually do this sort of thing, but I think it's a cool example of what you can do, the survey in terms of game that very specific response by individual, so I'm hearing goodies pulling from Jeffrey Scary, is correct. I would outs, is pretty good use. Appalling for sharing Amelia already took her hand. She the poor SARA. I now feel it now. I need to be controlled

Now I think it's a good use of pulling, particularly as I think again, I couldn't separate my thoughts of the pandemic and what we know in particular about white and vengeful Christians, and how this kind of hopes understand how they think about covered, but also just like more broadly world views and religion. So I, like his whole. I really like closing this. Please do more holes like this pew. Another pulsars, when the anguish this had included, is more contacts about how people are actually experiencing the pandemic, because I looked at this, and one of the things I was thinking about is the fact that just being religious is increasingly correlated with political identity and actually some evidence that people's political identities are at a point where their share, being people's religiosity, whether their determining whether that person identifies as more and less religious. So looking at this, I think, is a little bit tricky to separate. What's liquor

Leave religious world view of Kuwait and, what's being influenced by politics at one the reasons that I would have been really interested to see. These results based on people's experiences is I'm just curious. Are people thinking about this differently if they have a loved one die of covert? Are they thinking about this differently if they live in a canoe? That's been really hard hit by a bed or if they don't know anyone at all who has gotten really sick from covered in old people who lost their jobs, people who didn't lose their jobs. People have been struggling with child Karen and housing and security issues for the past year and a half I mean this is affected. People in so many different ways, and some people have been hidden really really hard at other people are in a position where there are much less likely to have been heard economically, less likely to have gotten covered themselves or two.

Seen about one get really sick from covered. So I was left with this wondering. Do those experiences shaped the way people are thinking about these big questions and do they have the potential to kind of break through these views they can think of is being pretty sat lake peoples, We just views in over something that they then presumably given a lot of thought to and they're pretty certain about the same with people's political views and her hand living through a pandemic can be you think, a pretty world view altering experience, so I would have loved to see a little more of that and the pole just how people living through the pandemic is her, isn't changing the weather. Thinking about these questions are good the point that could be better, always striving for more perfection and realizing us we're talking that if you want to write a column about religion, politics, but really good name would be fully puppet and all the different meaning. The guys

I'm saving that one for later Joe, you have you can't round our good ideas on fire gassed gotta, but more of this kind of coverage. Amelia the only thing stopping it is a clever name. That's why we're allowed its aren't during religion politics. So we have to stress the wealth. Let's leave it there. On this issue and next epigram talk about coming. Nineteen, but first as we have all learned by now. It is very difficult for the world to put cuban nineteen behind it and, during the Thanksgiving break, scientists identified a new variant of a novel current virus named on the Koran. Some people, nothing on the progress on this podcast, I'm saying on the ground. That Roma, soon Eclipse delta as the dominant variant worldwide or at least that severe from scientists, but we should emphasise the might in that sentence- scientists do not yet know me. so what we will soon know that on the ground I seen essence of about two weeks before we know answered is an important question is like whether it really spreads more easily than delta. Does a breakthrough that scenes protections more easily than

delta does is a cause of your illness. When someone does get sick, we scenes the annual reports a bit, maybe causing actually less severe illness, and then that has all sorts of knock on questions as well, which is the dominant strain, isn't getting people as it is actually a good thing. We we want, random to eclipse doubt that, but for now we know that on Friday is real and is already in the U S at in, I think last I saw it was over doesnt states. and that it might alter the fragile norms that we established over the past two years, We also know that Americans are thinking about recent pulling suggested somewhere around fifty to sixty percent of Americans are somewhat were very concerned about crime satellites. That start with you. I think you, edit the peace it created the pulling on that issue when he saw those numbers. Did they surprising that over half of Americans are onward? To be honest, they dared. I mean we're not talking about that. Big of a difference, six points, but looking at pulling from Harris that

had looked at concern around the delta variant earlier this summer. Seventy two percent had said they were concerned, whereas now seventy eight percent so again not a huge difference here. I think you could maybe say that people are equally as concerned as they were with Delta, but it certainly seems to be something despite some reports, as you were saying at the outset, there that may be. This isn't as contagious or isn't necessarily as deadly as Delta has proven to be. Americans do seem to be really concerned about the spread of it, and at the same time Jeff. They aren't yet willing to make significant, Haber alterations to the way that life is working right now, at least there is ample from we're in council at the end of November, so right after I was found that showed forty four percent of people polled supported, closures of businesses and gum facilities in order to help protect from a crime which is much lower than

things like mass mandates or something like that, and I'm wondering just what you see in that number, which forty four percent is high and a sense of its almost half of the country, but At the same time, it shows a majority that country wants to keep life as it is right I'm having it reveals. Perhaps a fatigue with the idea of shutdowns and various other more large scale restrictions. I mean, I think the, suggests. People are generally supportive doing covered testing icing large percentage support, getting vaccinated, doing things like social distancing. Other such behaviour, I think the idea of walk down again and really closing things down there is such a large difference and support for that from many of the other things that were asked about it. Estimated that sort of step the people just don't want to take again because we ve been through that once this has been going on for cavalry I'd like a year and a half now of dealing with covered nineteen of United States

or more and so fatigue is the word that comes to mind for me when I say that May I remember when the dynamic first arrived you and I were- can sorceries together around how their decision making at the pandemic was ultimately at decision making about our comfort in people dying. I'm going to the hospital and unions reporting around the financial values, entry of a life in and how the government measures that- and I'm wondering now, almost two years later, how you're thinking about that initial work. You did in twenty twenty and where it society has essentially found its equilibrium on the question of what were willing to do to stop suffering like we're talking about an than the first. Said and what feels like a step too far. It is interesting to think about the contrast between right at the beginning of the pandemic and now in terms of how I think, we're coming to terms with the idea of

You know this is a disease where were willing to take on some out of risk in order to keep the rest of society function, but the beginning of the piano it was so incredibly unknown and it was so devastating and we really years or things really out of control and a really did feel like if you were asking people to go to work. At that moment, you were asking them to put their lives on the line. Obviously, people are still dying of covert nineteen and there still getting very sick, but I think there is because we have better treatments, because there is more of a sense that this is a disease that even if there are new variance that we kind of how to handle on it a little more

scientifically? We have back scenes that there is more of like a kind of calculus that we take with all kinds of things. Rarely cars are really dangerous, and yet we get in cars and we drive in them every day and the same thing with lots of other stuff that that happens.

So I think what we are seeing more and more is people and companies and governments, kind of working hours, widen levels of risk are comfortable with you know, of a company wants to send a significant share of its workers back into an open office space. Do you have to be short of thinking in the back of your head? Ok, there's going to be some level of covert spread that happens in this space that was built pre pandemic and are becoming eatable with that, and I think people are not is super comfortable with the type of calculation that the government tens or has done in this the value of human life calculus. But I think that is part of what were all weighing now and especially what institutions are weighing, as there are thinking about

whether people come back to work and government is also weighing, and thinking about whether businesses should be open are closed to sir. What would have to change for Americans to start welcoming some time? more severe locked down again would be that the vat scenes are effective against on the ground, like that's, actually the only thing that would bring us back to that first frenzy of of March and April of twenty twenty. Where is that? I do not think that this point in the other differences between what I personally do and what I want the government to do and are we passed because of fatigue that I think Jeffrey mention? Are we passed the point where there is anything where Americans will want the government to limit their I believe it live aquatic life. I think the buyers certainly high, as you suggested, that question I think,

We saw in the early spring of twenty. Twenty was unprecedented in terms of concern, the rate at which people were dying, but his Amelia was saying now with the vaccine, even as the virus, continues to spread and mutate. There seems to generally be like some greater form of protection or resilience in terms of contracting the disease, and so right, I think you look at poles and Americans. Optimism has ever been prior to Delta. People were really like. Ok, things are back to normal repose. Even now, kind of Just this was conducted in November, a Yahoo NEWS, yoga pole, but seventy four percent of American said things were returned to normal. I think that kind of begs the question like or what is normal now and I think all of us are kind of collectively undergoing redefining what that is, because we haven't returned back to this point where we were prior to March of twenty twenty men even

for that current viruses in the country or layer, and so I think people then are taking those calculus, as a million was saying about the type of risk they want to incorporate in their own lives. But I thought that morning consult pull that you and Geoffrey you're talking about earlier, which Israel standing in the sense of large majorities of Americans, their good with social distancing, their good with booster shots, their good waiting, a wearing a mask inside but they do not want businesses. They do not want the government, they dont want schools to shut back down, and I think it would really have to be something striking for us to be back in that position. I was really interested to see that seventy four percent of Americans think that life is back to normal because everyone I have a baby. So I think my wife is very different than other peoples, because its China, small and vaccinated person who can't we're mask at my house, but even so, there are so many things that you can't catholic goodwill cancer really in the way you did before

We're relate to their just like so many things that are different, and I wonder if that's part of the balancing that is happening right now, that we ve kind of decided that normal is a certain level of acceptable living like schools are obeyed, you can eat out in a restaurant. You can write on public transportation, but a lot of people are still working from home You know there are restrictions in a lot of different areas. You do have to wear a man and so I wonder, if that's part of why we see this really big reluctance to go back, because there is a sense that we are already making all these compromises in what we consider normal to be, and we ve got wrap their heads around okay. This is like what the world is like now, but we really really don't want to roll back further

I'm really out o charge. You are now number because, yes, there are vaccination requirements in many places, especially in more democratically controlled places, but I went to a bus, Imbrians game openings, giving twenty something people were the stadium it. My first large indoor than I had masks on the vast ass vast majority. People did not the stadium put up a p on the jumbotron. It said when United in drinking City of Boston mandate that you need to be wary mask and then the next thing on, the jumbotron was equal. Another kiss camp that just passed over the crowd that didn't have Basta ray, and so I think there is a big gap between what rules may be and what enforcement of those rules are and in New York city we should go to concert. You'll be screen for vaccination at the front end, but then no one's making do anything which are inside the building. I think that

Yes, we have actually reached a new normal in how many checkpoints and gay with are in some places, but I would think that most Americans at this point are able to behave the way they want to behave within the pandemic without the threat of enforcement or or something like that, getting in their way and New York City. I think its eight percent of people are vaccinated and so we most people are able to go to the restaurant and not be turned away from the restaurant in plenty about dates you ve seen. Obviously, the removal of mass mandate and the removal of destination and so life is whatever you want it to be there and talk to me. I can totally by b I g three hundred and forty two, the country think that they are back to what normal is because normal could just be. I get to

then why do you think so many people are supportive of something leg. Mandatory mask usage. Is that because people recognise that results in search of a state of flux- and there are these new variants coming up in, there may be need to roll back, because I read that and I was kind of like well, that's actually not such a huge ask for a lot of people. I mean at least master mandatory in the county where I live so like I go to the gym pretty much everyone. Wearing a mask so part of the challenges that this is super logo and what I was reading now in Montgomery Kind Maryland is very different than what I was experiencing when I lived southern end here and so uniting what normal means in different parts of the country varies a lot but people are not having to wear masks to their Bruins game. Why are these happy new to jump back to that reality. Do think we're not happy too, but willing to

Yeah, sorry, just to clarify to get into the Bruins game you needed to be vaccinated. and he d be wearing a mask as you went through security and then the moment that those two checks were over. No one gave a hoot, I mean if there is now no one was enforcing anything putting the validity of that aside. I think that there is an acknowledgement and understand, among many American, that we need certain checks and balances, but perhaps confidence in their own ability to know what's best for them or with desperate the family would arouse that don't navigated as they see fit and if you look at them wearing console pull that we were there in, discussing seventy percent agree in some type of social distancing cause like why wouldn't find so be

right and no one's coming to your house to stop it from happening. The way that they were at your neighbor to call the cops on you or something that way wasn't in April, two thousand and twenty. But this idea of going to that. Next, step of closing businesses gum Phillies, that's where your ability to live the life that you want to live is infringed upon. It goes back to. I think what Amelia was saying like are people considering that normal now and it seems to suggest yes and I you know, I would argue that hasn't gone to a few concerts now, where you wear the mask inside, like it's not the same, but you know it could be that people are kind of stick to that and rebalancing expectations around what normal means causes you're, saying Chad, you know, maybe the larger concerns around

in closing mandates being enforced. People are leary of that and so kind of embracing this new weird hybrid period that we all live in. Ok, let's leave it there and network and talk about twenty midterms who's running who's. Not I ought some people running my are some people running, but first. as twenty two approaches were beginning to have a better sense of whose seeking office in the mid terms, plenty of income and Democrats are bearing out, perhaps sensing republican Wave but then twentieth. Beginning Democrats are also leaning in perhaps sensing. Well, that's what I want to discuss. What makes a person want to run the terms at first sight it out. So, let's start with Democrats and then looking Republicans later Jefferson Review, work and Stacy Abrams have both declared runs for governor in southern states that are drifting tore democrats. But given on Virginia and New Jersey would probably be a reach for Democrats in and twenty two. So when you heard that work and even to running

that surprise you Abrams candidacy did not surprise me. I think she's been hinting and more than hinting for a long time that she was gonna, take another shot. Twenty twenty two after narrowly losing twenty eighteen guarantor election against Republican, cab, who now has its own primary challenge to deal with from now former David Perdue David produce just announced, so I think Abrams figured love, George's, been trending to the left to some extent and I might be able to overcome. the mid term headwinds of having my party in the White House also, I think when she started, even perhaps we can't know for sure, but we ve known that she's hinted at the idea, should run for governor, basically since she lost last time, so maybe she's just so decided and laid out all the the groundwork for this, irrespective of which party was gonna, be in the White House on even if she might have had a bit

chance based on what we know traditionally about mid term elections. If republican run the White House than a Democrat, you know it better Rourke in I'm not surprised because we saw some heads in the mother so leading up to his announcement that he was really might indeed actually run, so I guess. In that sense it is hard to be surprised when you're, given the months heads up that this was a real possibility. I think if you told me in April, thing. I might have been more surprised at this time There are maybe reasons why our work would run, and I ain't even if he's got an uphill battle against Texas, Governor Gregg, Abbot, Their work is private, best known potential statewide democratic to run in Texas, obviously came very close to twenty eighteen to winning against Vulcan Search had crew, didn't have a great two thousand and twenty presidential campaign, but I think in it in the sense of if you're Democrats and you want a high profile candidate who's going to turn people out, he's going to engage the party

yes, and so you don't end up with a situation where the party based just doesn't show up as much Orourke moving them position to energized the basics party of any democratic name in the state of Texas and so on, maybe that was an argument that was made to him. You know, maybe you can turn around and run again for Senate twenty twenty four coming off of the twenty twenty two gubernatorial action. If you dont when and again At least put any decent, showing it'll set you up for another Rhine. I do think we know that losing twice in row. I get twenty eighteen and potentially twenty twenty two. Work doesn't say, look great and maybe the end you you lose if you try to run again in the future. At the same time, though, I do think that that might have been the pitch behind closed doors that made a year ago. You know this is worth it to me. It's worth me taken the shot, even if I know I'm gonna have a tough times we really hard actually, when for putting it The good showing it doesn't look is bad because people know it's an uphill fight, so maybe

Maybe that was a factor in his decisionmaking. Have that how many times is it going to run in referencing? You know five hundred and thirty eight we had looked at this question, Alex Samuels and Mary Radcliffe on perennial its candidates, who don't win and run again like what are their odds, and so in our analysis of U S, Senate, governor and presidential, racists and sanctioning eight out of a hundred twenty one candidates, only thirty three managed to win after having lost once already and is Jeffrey mentioned. You know, or work definitely falls into that category and if you count his unit failed presidential bid as well. You know it's even worse news in the sense of only one candidate current Senator John Kennedy in Louisiana has one office

having lost twice, I think Abrams, that's kind of a bit more complicated as Jeffrey was getting at and that her playbook, arguably, is what helped Warner and also win in Georgia earlier this year for much of the last few decades. Here the Democrats playbook in the south has put candidates, for that kind of, tend to take more conservative stance and perhaps the National Party and all sooner embrace white candidates. White candidates who attended to be men Abrams clearly showed that that do not necessarily need to be the only playbook that worked in the south and then Warnock and us off were able to China. Take that to fruition. It's going to be, interesting test case of you know. Maybe it's not even a re against camp, given the primary challenge now that produce trying to mount. I think, is also worth noting that some politicians have extremely large egos and confidence that they can be the exception to the rule,

Oh, we shouldn T rule that out as also a factor in all this just to be brutally honest. You know what else is there to do if you're still here their work when there is a cycle that you could be participating in that maybe sit out is part of this that this is what politicians do they want. For office, and so I think it is rooms. I was a very good job, furnishing reputation and and image in the intervening four years since your last run, but at some point of your politician he got to the point, Yeah me le politicians, often times not always, but oftentimes act strategically. So I think a bronze has pretty clearly been doing out of me he's been slowly gearing up to take another shot at the governorship. If you really and have a discussion about potential. Other statewide offices should be interested in running for Georgia. That's at least off the table. short term now, because Democrats, one the two Senate seats, so if that was something that ever crossed her mind, is a potential think she'd wanna go for that sort of off the table

moment, so it's like if she wants to hold top. level stay one office in Georgia, its governor, that's the option. You know with better work, I don't see quarters much charging, given the presidential bid if his long the plan was to want to stay one office in Texas, on which was never gonna, be easy for a Democrat. Even if the state has been trending to a more competitive place, stay wide right for president and taking some positions that while pay- into the base could turn off somebody the centre right types that you always have to win over Texas written I've heard Democrat to have a shot at when you state wide. That, I think, is interesting, especially on certain things like on uncertain gun rights, positions, immigration issues Ray for president nationalized or work in a way that may not have helped him in a state wide contests. Now, at the same time, they politics is so nationalize. Now that maybe it's worth no,

they who knows how much that actually matters. I did day it's harder and harder to separate yourself from sort of a national party brand now, because a Democrat in State acts is very similar to a democratic state. Why now there's not much regional variation? That's true for Republicans too, though we do have some exceptions. I guess the northeast the GNP, some governors who ve been successful there being very moderate, but I do think generally things are so nationalized now that I don't wanna like over state that works case. Talking with Alex Samuels are resident taxes expert about this, and I was just messing with what is the upside for better here, and we were talking about this issue of you know. What else is he gonna do with his time? It also does look grave for him to lose yet again. It also doesnt with great for him to just sit there and total his thumbs and wait for the next election and Alex pointed out

various rightly, I thought that he could do exactly what Stacy Abrams did and he could say you know, I'm gonna do organizing in Texas, I'm gonna do behind the scenes on the ground work to try to tee everything up. And he could work for a down now, Democrats like he could set things in motion and then maybe he runs again in some future elections cycle that's more favourable and that was compelling to me. I did wonder why he would not do Something like that, and I do feel that there may be a gender component to this where men, We know this from the literature are more likely to just say you know what I'll just run and will to see what happens and women are The strategic and are more likely to say is this: a race can actually win anything. Some remember the Stacey Abrams could have run for president in twenty twenty. Some people were saying they wanted her to

she died out, went out. She's clearly been thinking. These are goals, this is how I'm going to achieve them, and that's very consistent what we know about how women think about running for office and again the sort of lake well people, asking me to run seems like it. the time. Maybe I can do This time is something we see more often for male politicians, not all male politicians, but in general, these patterns, yet to their point, listeners, roofs and more. Conversation, factory aid in the area of twenty twenty did a project in which we talked with ninety seven women who had run for office about what it was like to run for office as part of that product. We did a one one interview, The Earl colleague them alone that an interview with Stacy Abrams in which they talked about now. What was it like to run, but also Abrams Career PATH, essentially Anne, and will try and link to that on the website on five hundred and thirty eight dot com. So I want

shift from it runs in our work to hyper volcanoes who are running to them. Eighteen House Democrats who have decided not to run. The latest being represented peer, devise new of Oregon, who had thirty six years in Congress and said enough is enough. Democrats are I strongly slim majority in the house in what cycle be bad mid term for them, especially in the house where already they were showing signs of weakness, even in a year when they won the presidency and in twenty when he saw how you square the circle you got to profile. People coming in you got almost twenty Democrats coming out, who were incumbents and likely would have had some better. The damage

They see what happens or work aren't. Or is this also a case of too superficial decisionmaking? Oh, I think, is pretty clear that their look in it a tough bitter environment for Democrats and are saying well, if I'm Peter, to forego and I'm chair of ethical House transportation and republic is probably the majority. I've been here a long time. I think he's been in there for about thirty years, maybe it's time to retire, because I dont want to stick around for other republican majority, where I have very little say since the house is such a such a majority Marian institution in the Senate. Italy's theoretically still has some element of compromise and consensus, whereas the houses very much whichever party controls majority runs the show, so I think you have to look at that in the context of Fazio. You can see of the nineteen Democrats, who have retired alive,

one of them would be best categorized as pure retirements, which is to say they are not seeking another office and there just retiring they're, not thinking. Oh, I have like another opportunity, whereas for public, they ve got eleven people who are leaving office from the house and of those seven are running for another office. So I think that those Republicans an opportunity to move up when a Senate seat or something whereas on the net, Craddock Side, especially at a fair number of competitive seats. They're saying I don't want to fight for reelection again and I'm not even looking at running for another office, necessarily inciting deaf fits into story with data we seen in the past is like. Generally speaking, the president's party sees more of those types of retired then the all party, more often than not, so it sort of lines of what you would expect given what we know about the matter environment right now, we don't know how it actually play our, but what we know right now, so that this is not a redistribution thing. This is not because the districts are shifting uncertain

they're, saying I'd rather thou Daddy's, a wrinkle that we had to consider. That's ITALY's part of some lawmakers decisions. You know what the Fazio, though his seat actually was made more democratic, leaning than it had been previously. It was actually very fifty fifty seep before and now it's notably more democratically in the night, because Democrats in Oregon controlled registering and they managed to get a map that made us better for them by he decided not worth sticking around, even with that guy for another hour, other individuals. I think, where reassuring I would plead at least some role in there and their calculations. You know I truly Christy's running for governor floored again, partly as he must be governor again. He shown that this is a third run for governor has been governor for term. Came back loss as a Democrat, now's running away, as a Democrat. At the same time, though, we know that Republicans control reassuring in Florida, so there is a chance that his districts will end up being more

Publican, leaning, that it is right now and maybe be hard from November election, that's just as an exam. The TIM Ryan is right for Senate Ohio, provided that, partly because his district is gone basically, though, the one that he was in previously has been torn up in redistricting, so he knew he didn't write. I get far back option there, so he's taken a shouted at a state whitebait, even if it's an uphill one, so reassuring as part of the conversation there's no doubt I just think. On the whole, you can look at these individual decisions and see a greater amount of democratic worry than republican worry. On that note, I generic ballot tracker, which essentially asks Americans if the elections were held today, when you vote for Democratic Republican for office, Democrats had led in that average, when we first launch.

And had poles going back to April, but here, in MID November, Republicans have taken the lead in granite. It's a less than a percentage point leave, but already you know a little bit less than a year out Republicans kind of in the national environment as Jeffrey suggesting, as foreseen in retire Hence our advantaged right in actually to that point, syrian and defend a ragged sure colleague, he put together some data on their church, tree of the generic ballot from well before the action toward ends up and it tends to try and against the President's party. So, if republicans have taken a very narrow lead in our average there's a decent chance based on history that that leave will grow not shrink as we go into two thousand and twenty two and get closer. Election out. There are exceptions where that is not played out, and so maybe two thousand and twenty two will prove to be an exception, but at least more often than not, that's what's happened. So if you're

a law maker. Considering your options right now that history, your democratic, doesn't make it terribly confident that your positions going to improve markedly. So I'm talking about the applicants who are an aren't, run profits, there's high profile rebellion in New Hampshire governor Chris Vanunu decided not to run for Senate He basically said the senator crappy place to work and I'd rather not, and I think that, regardless of your political beliefs, you could see how someone would arrive at that conclusion At the same time, you have some high profile, Republicans getting it, the primary like doktor eyes in Pennsylvania, who doesn't have a deep connection with Pennsylvania, but has chosen to try become tender depends. and so I'm curious, as you guys see, the republican field shaping up in an election that is likely to lean Republican, You see the candle pool that can help

deliver on the potential political, had an article outlining what was going on in the house, and that seem to be a pretty coherent strategy in the sense that party recruiters were telling them that in some of these targets swing districts their aiming for people who have either, like a military background, background and defence, something to do with national security. because, as we saw with Democrats in the twenty team, it terms some of the more moderate districts that profile played well into. There seems to be a strategy and emphasis on that and not going well. But, as you were saying, Chad for at least some of the Senate races and I'm curious to hear what a million Jeffrey think I've been scratching my head more there because The candidates like sinew, knew who have the credentials, who you think would one IRAN would be a good picture. The GNP aren't interested and so Sean per now who was in mired in this nasty custody fight with his wife, for he was alleged to have choked her to hit one of his children. He withdrew

Pennsylvania Senate Rays and now Doktor OZ is entered because he lost the custody battle, and that was like the Trump endorsed candidate that the GEO p was right behind. Similarly, in Georgia, you now have Herschel Walker, who will take on Warnock in the Senate there, and he has lived in the state for years and also has a troubling background of abuse. Them that will come out in the primary and so rightly said- OZ in Missouri, Eric Gratings, who resigned from office and scandal, and twenty eighteen is now kind of the front runner there. I can't really make heads or tails of the Senate match up at this point: the Jew peacefully, I'm curious for your slots theory, which is just that in the era of the pandemic, I think we have been seeing a lot more of white governors can actually do and seeing this is a powerful position ended.

has a lot of control over how people live their lives and Congress is I'm saying I don't you how it is work environment I dont work there. I think if you are interested in getting specific things done, it is not probably the most fulfilling environment to be in and I would guess all the more so after twenty twenty two when it seems like we are heading for divided government. So I wonder if part of it is just that the people who have the profile to run for Senate who really have the name, recognition and think about statewide office, which is rather not do Senate, and you know it's a new already governor, maybe just genuinely prefers that job feels like that's a job where you can actually get things done. You can have an impact on the people who are serving and going to the Senate feels like well its prestige,

is, but if I'm someone who has specific political goals, this is not actually a place where we will be able to get me in done calibrate his doctor eyes is a little less clear to me because I dont know these goals are politically so, presumably he will elaborate more on man. I think he said that he was inspired to run because of the covert nineteen pandemic. Emma government taking away people's liberties, but I dont know that he's been more specific than that so tv on here but I guess that's my theory that its frustrating to be in Congress right now and if your governor of a state, you can actually have a tangible impact on people's lives in a way that you may find much more satisfying as a politician. But can you get on? Cable news is often that's the real

No, that's not your bones to Chad. I don't know I mean I think to Emilius point. I was going to mention that, in order to get a coincidence that governors in these states where there are high profile, democratic seats that are up that could in a swing the balance of power and what looks to be potentially republican way, the term year haven't taken the plunge. No, dubbed you see term limited out he's not doing anything in Arizona after the toy to election opted not to run for Senate. And in this case is not cuz he's going to stick around as governor, but maybe he's like I'll go back to the private sector, and I think he want I'm at least wounded ice cream chain. Maybe I'll get back into that or some. rather than go to the Senate and talk a lot in our globe. Eight, been power in the Senate. That's what I don't get like we're talking about Republicans who lake in theory would be the majority in Congress.

I mean I realize, would still be divided government. But let's at least better than the minority, but its majority was not sixty votes right, like I wonder if this is really what these to send a reform. Is that no one what's to run presented one you and you have a democratic way ass. I think another factor in here that's inescapable is the role of Donald Trump and the Republican Party You know in the case of someone like do see. Maybe Miss Connell could have convinced and IRAN, but there's trump attacking do C4, basically not trying to halt the certification of democratic. Lectures in Arizona signing off on it and basic coming out persona non grata to tromp intra making that clear. You know in the case of a state like Georgia, Ursule Walker, came from Skype pretty early on their other things. Our brain Europe is now in trouble and his governors race, because he try to interfere with the election. Basically, undue trumps bidding in Georgia

mark for Intervention Arizona is the state attorney general. There is running for Senate, but he's gotten to push back from tromp because he didn't, go out of his way to try to say that the election was rigged and so he's not maybe not trust, preferred candidate there and that could end up being a hindrance for him in the republican primary. So I think trouble you're inescapably part of this as well, and I think in the Senate is much more high profile stay wide race, individual tricks matter to some extent, but I think in terms of just the amount of attention that that these races will have, as is much larger, than individual house race. So I think we can see a more clearly in the Senate that tromp is playing a major role in Canada decision making we almost the whole seven without signing Trump, but Jeffrey. I am glad that you did bring. Might because, of course he is such a significant forces

hangs over everything in the mid terms and potentially be hot and which then show guys? Thank you, Sir I've. Fortunately thank you. Thank you. Jeffrey pleasure, thanks Chad, and we are glad that could put your comparative religion grabbed degree in such yesterday. I now is really making me feel like those two years were supersecret other soon dealt with every afterward. You had to say about about religion. Politics gathered suddenly our example fixture minors shouted Matlin, Tony Childs in the virtual control room Clare, Bitter Curtis, is on audio editing and Emma really is our in turn. That will do it for today show you can get in touch, emailing us podcast at five. Thirty, eight dot com, Galen read that embarks when he's feeling healthy for it, even of course tweeted us with questions or comments. Tweak Ellen leave me out of it. I can check twitter just talking.

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