I don't know, I should admit that I have yet to see a single olympic event. My black crazy he's, not that crazy. If you're, an American he knew welcome to the five thirty eight politics podcast, I'm dealing route, it looks like California, governor gave a nuisance might have some reason to worry about losing his job the governor, Giorgio Recall election effort began in California and, up until just recently, Newsome looked like he could pretty easily beat it back, but two calls for the new sums. Lead is now within the margin of error. So today we're gonna take a look at why The court is declining and how the recall election could shake out. Also, this Tuesday is election day in Ohio and, most notably, the primaries. two congressional special elections will give us a good into where the power lies within the two parties in Ohio was

congressional district, the more progressive and establishment parts of the Democratic Party are going head to head and in Ohio, fifteenth, the power of trumps endorsement is again being tested. We ve also got a good use or bad use of pulling for you all today, but we're gonna do that later on in the show so cured me to discuss at all our politics. Auditors, our promises and Hey Sarah hey Galen, happy first Monday of August House Summer Treaty were like is the kind of final point, the summer there were entering now it's the final. where did the somewhere, but you know not that slow of a new spearheads there you go yeah. Well, I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but We have something to talk about Algeria, those as elections, analysts, Nathaniel, Ragged, Shameth annual How'Re- you enjoying this part of the summer,

I'm enjoying it? I'm watching a lot of olympic baseball softball, which has been fun avow. It requires me to get up and stay up at ungodly hours, which has been less fun. I don't know. I should admit that I have yet to see a single olympic, a rat mobs like crazy not that crazy, if you're on American, but I haven't rising up, Love Island and I will still promote five. Thirty. Eight olympic coverage had over two five: thirty dot com. We have the metal, tracker and all kinds of other great stuff for people who are more american than I I'm kidding. I love America. I just don't sports, given does Latin America can attest to us anyway, let's get to those two primaries in Ohio, starting with the fifteenth districts, are Representative Steve's divers resign from his seat in May to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce to replace him former President Trump has endorsed coal lobbyists

Carry in primary, including ten other Republicans. Your eyes are on this raised, particularly after the candidate that Trump endorsed lost in last week's runoff, featuring to Republicans in taxes. Sixth congressional district, Sir, I mentioned that Trump endorsed carry Nathaniel. What are the dynamics of the rest the field. Is it an array of different levels of trump alignment? What's gonna yeah I mean, Everybody in the field is pro tromp, but of course, only one candidate has trumps endorsement. But, as you mentioned kind of after the Texas Sex, I think there's gonna be a lot of perhaps under survey attention on whether trumps and Dorsey wins there. Time around, and it's not at all clear that he will. There has definite, not been the kind of coalescing or coronation around trumps pick the way they you ve, seen in past republican primaries. So, in addition to carry, you have forced a representative Robin Hood, who has kind of emerged as they

of the ran Paul, libertarian side of the party. There is a super pack. They protect freedom pack that is, spending big money. I believe over six hundred now dollars, helping him when the race. You also have Ruth Edmunds is a minister who is endorsed by Debbie Meadows, whose a conservative activist, who is also the wife of a Trump chief of staff mark meadows you have, florae who was endorsed by survivors. The retiring and commenter resigning ring comment in an unusual move. Actually, survivors has banned three hundred thousand dollars of his own campaign. Cash left over on ring ads for lorries. So he is putting his money where its mouth is as well. Then you have several other candidates, Tom Weighing, maybe might be the most notable of those. He is a local businessmen. He loan owns a golf course and he has just pumped a bunch of money into his campaign. His funded to the tune of half a million dollars, and so you have a lot of spending coming from lots of different directions on this race. Its

not at all the case that everybody is is ok with trumps pack, so that's led to a very unsettled race. we have one pull the race, it was an internal Paul. It was from two months ago, so I really don't think people should be reading too much into that, and I think we have a lot of data at all to go off of, except for maybe these kind of fund raising and spending numbers. But really, I think there is a wide range of possibilities here as to who could win. Carry not carry. I think this race in particular, what's been so unusual, is once divers resigned. He kind of had his pack lorries, but blurry did They catch on Cyprus has put his money and that Trump endorses a candidate, but that didn't really clear the field there. there is nothing was said to be clear. Like all of these candidates running or pro trump there's, not a lot. daylight between them? The one interest, in contrast, is we

You have a recent see by us right now, the Texas six elections being held last week, and so you know from the backed candidate there did not win to those kind of that what will happen now? I mean the one poor we have from June. Was an internal pole did show a sizeable led for carry care running as an outsider when you look at the fund. Raising number There's a really haven't been a lot of candidates catapulted into the top. I mean yes, some one leg awaiting has self funded his campaign, but you know so. Funders are often irregular. Type of candidates swell, and you know one thing that I was really picking up on in the Texas six race was people like former Governor Rick Perry were saying in a what trump was sold like fake bill of goods about Susan right. You have seen that same kind of outspokenness here around carry you have sinking

like Senator, ran Paul backing his own candidate mark meadows, wife back in her own candidate to theirs. Disagree and but there is less like, oh Ben, maybe trumps pick isn't that good? Maybe he should be going with another candidate It gives me reason as Nathaniel SAD, really and open raised. There are eleven candidates, it's hard to know who will pull ahead here, but it does seem to be like a different tenor than what we had in leading up to the Texas six race Nathaniel Use at the top. The this race was maybe getting some undeserved attention regarding trumps endorsement and whether or not carry will win. Why do you say under

urban. I just think that if there are two consecutive losses and a role for the Trump Endorse candidate, that's gonna set off a minor firestorm people being like oh trump, is losing his influence within the Republican Party, and I think that that's just a little bit hasty. We have this long track record of Trump endorsed candidates, winning their races. There have been a couple of exceptions over the past several of years. But I think that two races should in our way the long track record that we have. In addition, I think that, even if it's true that may be Trump is not as powerful as he was, while he was president, I think there's room to misinterpret that as well I think a lot of people will want to say that, like republican voters are turning on tramper they're ready to move on from him, and it could be more

or that other republican elites are expressing their independence, which would still be significant. But we ve talked a lot on this package, of course, Galen about how republican elites probably have more power than they think they do in terms of influencing how republican voters feel and perhaps getting them to break with trumpet Think that you see this clearly there a lot of people, other politicians, donors who are comfortable giving too and endorsing the non Trump endorsed Canada. And maybe word is finding that when presented, a menu of options where a publican voter might be like ouch Nor is this guy, but this other Republican, who I It endorses guy, so maybe they're multiple Good Conniston s rays, and maybe those but their votes because of that and or maybe we're just seeing that when republican donors have two candidates who aren't from candidates they are able to that money to then convince voters to vote for them, and so

it doesn't necessarily mean that Trump is still a popular figure within the Republican Party. Obviously yeah over the weekend. Fundraising reports showed that, from a political operation raised more money than any other Republican in the first half of the year, which is notable for a former president and that you now has a hundred million dollars on hand to spend in political sites like this when thinking about money spent in primaries. That might have relatively low turn out or might not get that much attention. How are you thinking about three hundred million dollars? Does that mean that going forward in these fights he's gonna have a good shot at picking the winner? I mean I continue to think that trumps endorsement is powerful within the republican party

Action is whether it is invincible and that's me saturation, because some of his endorses have lost before and again two out of hundreds isn't necessarily notable. So you re, I think, the hundred million it's a testament to the way in which the organs nation around tromp. That apparatus, especially his former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, is going try in these races to have trumps endorsement mean something- and he had this great quote in a political article that was talking about this race in Ohio. and he was saying organizations that endorse candidates against the president's endorsement do so at their own peril, meaning, like we're going to remember this and the sense you can see how that plays out if carry here wines that why did meadows wife endorse? Does Canada or re Paul. Do this candidate and remember, you know, ran Paul and tramped did eventually come till. I play golf together essentially, but

it has often been on the opposite end of trump here, and so I think Trump is mounting a very serious ground level gain here in the primaries to test the water where are the twenty two midterms, but then twenty twenty four and we're gonna kind of see how this works in real time but is Nathaniel caution, This is now the second primary here that were kind of paying special attention to in terms of loyalty to trump and see how that involves. We ve got a lot of time. they're gonna be a lot of races Chump is already endorsed twenty point, two primary races and I just don't think we should jumped any conclusions until we see the overall when rate for this

if it is significantly lower than it was in the past, and that would be notable but be just don't know that yet and of course, Bobby tracking that you're at five thirty eight one question every wrap up on a highly fifteenth one. Other important piece of conduct here is what kind of district is. Thus people see the result coming in its a district that we were typically think of as closely Trump aligned more Chamber of Commerce E. Where does not fall within the Republican Party in and just how red meaning is it? Yes, this is a pretty republican seat. It has a five hundred and thirty eight partisan lean of r nineteen, which means in a neutral political environment. Theoretically, we would expect a Republican to win it by nineteen points. So it's not like deep, deep red, but it is probably out of the reach of Democrats in the general election. In terms of the primary electorate. It's a fairly wide, ranging see its central high. Oh, it goes from the suburbs of Columbus to Appalachia, so it would seem to bring in lots of different types of voters, the outgoing representative

Steve Divers, is literally resigning in order to become president of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce. But of course, the Republican Party has been moving in a trumpet. action generally over the last several years, and perhaps the seat will be the next domino to fall in that regard and, of course, will be able to see as the results come in, where the preferences live from those Columbus suburbs out to abolition. But anyway, let's turn to the primary. In a highly eleventh congressional district work. Former representative Marcia Fudge resigned from her seat to become secretary of Housing and urban development so vying to take her place. Our former state Senator Nita Turner, and Cairo Council, woman, Chantelle Brown among others, but really the focus is on those. Two and Turner is aligned with the further left parts of the party and was presidential campaign Co Chair for Bernie Sanders.

Brown is more aligned with the established in parts of the party and has been endorsed by house Majority with James Kleiber, or so we didn't know. So we have a great sense of how competitive the fifteenth district was. Do we have a good sense of how competitive this raises? here in the house eleventh, we have kind of a distorted view of it. I haven't been any independent pulse here, but there have been a fair number of internal poles and enough that I think we can chart the trajectory so basically, Everyone agreed that early in the race, Nina Turner was doing well. She jumped into the race as the candidate with the most money, the most based national profile. She had a bunch of endorsement from basically entire progressive apparatus, so think Bernie Sanders Congresswoman out cause. You cortez our Revolution, the group that Turner herself used to lead and groups like that, but I think, as the democratic establishment in particular way. Some people whom Turner had not played mice within the past become aware

that oh geez Nina Turner could become a commerce person and become a real foreign and our side. They have come off the bench and sided with Brown, who is a up and coming figure within the local party establishment there. So she kind of has the implicit support of Marcia Fudge whose resignation to be Secretary of Housing and urban development is what triggered the special action fudge herself has said. I cannot endorse I'm in the by an administration which isn't really technically true, but her mom is literally at an ad, says we are voting like Marcia can't endorsing this rates, but I can and were voting first I'll tell round. we have also seen Hillary Clinton Boom Turner famously defected from in twenty. Sixteen, she's endorse Chantelle Brown, Jim Clayburn, the congressional black Caucus has lined up behind brown and there's also been a good number of outside spending. On behalf of All this is kind of added up to an effect. So now you see some again internal pause and sir actually, the ones from Browns campaign

her allies have been showing this. As like the closer, although Turner still leading by, I think, like six or seven points. So looking at the distortions there I would say that when you're releasing a poll shows your down by six or seven points. You are almost certainly down, probably by closer to ten points, but it does seem like Brown has been building momentum in the race, course he always able man momentum at doesn't necessarily last it could stop here and then Turner wins by ten points, or so I do think it's notable though Turner herself hasn't released any internal pulse. She relation internal pole, a few more back that showed her leading and if she had better point numbers now, you would think that she would come out with them, but she hasn't. So I do think that the can

a race. If I had to pick some one to win, I would pick Turner, but either outcome when surprise me, so we re out the macro dynamics here, the national politicians who have endorsed in this race, Sir, what are some of the debates playing out within the actual campaign like what kinds of issues are they talking about? One question in this phrase is kind of Ben. How far to the left to go, you know at one point familiar fault line from the twenty twenty democratic primary around healthcare. Someone like Chantelle Brown, saying I support adding the public option to the affordable care act. Someone like Turner, saying I want Medicare for all. However, really interesting, like the group that Turner at one point once led here in twenty. Seventeen are revolution is kind of rebranded in recent days as pragmatic progressives. What that will actually mean, particularly at this point of the race, is kind of an open question mark, because someone like Turner, ISM

well established progressive in the field she famously compared the twenty twenty election to you now able If the candidate choices between Trump and buy it in their does, as we have seen in other races, the sheer in terms of progressive having to talk about what it means, then around policing and communities. How important is that so those issues are cropping up, but this does seem at this point. Largely drawn in terms of establishment credentials versus progressive, not a lot of new ones in between there, but more so just kind of which side of the party do you really want representing you in Congress? Yeah that's interesting here is that this race is really being fought on. The establishments turf be eleventh. District is a majority black district and, as we know, from the TWAIN, twenty presidential primary and from other races, black voters tend to be pretty moderate and pretty establishment so than you would think that they would naturally go towards someone like brown

and indeed Brown and her allies have been trying to make this race a referendum on party loyalty. So a lot of her ads and their ads have focused on a attacking turner for her disparaging comments against Spiten and not backing Hillary Clinton and twenty six in, and they also emphasised how Brown will really work very well with bite in and kind of bee. In this tradition of past Democrats from the district to have been very establishment and work towards compromise, and salt and things like that. You also see, interestingly, on Turner's part, she has this national reputation of being a progressive and kind of a bomb tower, but for that when she was in the state Senate, she was actually known as someone who worked well with others, and she was arising star within the party and you ve seen her kind of return to those routes in her campaign then. She has really reached out to a lot of old allies and gotten some key local endorsements she's. Also

of her ads are not really focusing on the red meets issues and progressive ideals, but rather on more meat and potatoes stuff. That really portrays her as someone who is also a kind of looking to just get results and make people's lives better. So you, in that sense, both campaigns are catering toward the more consensus establishment, focused median voter in this district. I think Nathaniel an interesting point about how this district is set up. Well, foreign establishment style candidate, which is one reason why I think you're seeing establishment wings of the party investors so heavily. It also, though, I think kind of reflects to something we ve noticed in tracking primaries endorsements in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty, which is that in an open seat, he's like this one that tends to be a better fighting ground for progressive and as an offence.

was getting at too. You know something like Turner makes her a great candidate, because she already has such strong legislative routes in the state and so you are seeing establishment candidates like the congressional blackest kleiber in taking this, really seriously in terms of the level of investment that their offering someone like Brown, but on the flip side of that progressive, have really invested heavily in this race to, and I think, because it's an open seat, there really is a lot of opportunity for then hear one thing we found in twenty twenty was that of the progressive winds in which it was an open sea. They had about a win rate of sixty nine percent, which was much higher than understandably, when they take on an incumbent already in office. So I think with turn. His credentials in the state as Nathaniel was getting at and the fact that the polls that have

released so far, which had been internal from Browns campaign kind of suggestion, oh she's, built. Perhaps a winning coalition here for progressive challenge, is to look at in future elections. There, of course, will have to wait to see the result. We said that you know it's kind of too soon to jump to any conclusions about the worth of a trump endorsement, regardless of basically what happens and highest fifteenth congressional district when it comes to these raises that have pitted the further left parts of the party and establish a part of the party on the democratic side against each other. Do we have enough data here to really say that progressive are struggling in the post, Trump now Biden era into Adsum grist to this question, the havoc imposed published a peace at the end of waste.

We looking at this conflict, essentially Inter party conflict in a higher, and they wrote that since bind took office quote the left's preferred. Candidates fell short in the special action in the media and a second congressional district in April Virginia's democratic Toil primary, early June and the New York City may all primary in late June, and then Now we have the founder of the progressive good data for progress was quoted, saying quotes. Each rates has its own unique circumstances, but the broader narrative is that under the belgian presidency, progressive need, an election message that resonates where their base, voters and approach may be suggesting that they haven't found that yet? So is this enough information here to say that the tides have turned, or you know he also says, does each has its own particular reason that it can be explained to I know, there's

enough information here, yet either a lot of those cases like in Louisiana and New York were also kind of on establishment, friendly turf, I would say- and so it's on a surprising- that progressive weren't able to win those races to Sean's point, but also, of course, the boy. A sample size thing you actually, the establishment does tend to win when it goes up against. Progressive like the progressive campaign apparatus is definitely getting stronger and rationalizing, but I still think they have a good amount of work to do to get to the power of a lot of these party committees and things like that. As also like, not necessarily that's pricing, that in a small sample of elections they establishment has tended to win, although you also have had some like lower salience elections were progressive, have one to be clear,

but again, they're gonna be dozens, if not more, of progressive verses, establishment primaries in twenty twenty two. We should wait until we can have the full body of data in order to draw any conclusions about whether things have changed. The other thing to having to keep in mind here is that the elections that have been cited and its article, those all had it You, like different progressive field for the race in Turner, has been in the lead here since the beginning She also has strong ties to the area, and so I do think, while under standard way. The main divide in the race has been progress versus establishment sure how much voters are actually using that kind of make up their minds in this, and it could be no

General says a lot of local endorsements. There is a different dynamic to this race. I think the flip side of that, though, as if she were to lose. If brown word aware, that probably will then kind of be seen as the biggest setback for the progressive movement. The sheer and I think that narrative will kind of take hold or a row of course, and we will keep an eye on those results as they come in. But let's move on and talk about the California Gubernatorial Recall election, but first today's podcast is brought. You buy better help life. full of stressors it doesn't matter who you are your wife is probably stressful. You may not be feeling down and now or depressed, but if your stresses high your temper shorter than usual revenue. Starting to feel strain in any of your relationships. You'd probably use the chance to unload better help is customize online therapy that offers videophone and even live chat sessions with therapist pest. So to see anyone on camera. If you dont want to its much more affordable than in person therapy,

and you can start communicating with your therapist in under forty eight hours, unless the stressors and get some unbiased feedback. You'd be pretty surprised at what you might gain from it see if it's four year commercial support for the five thirty politics podcast is by better help and our listeners get ten percent of their first month at better help. Dot com, slash five, three eight: the number is not the letters. That's better help b e t, T, R, HD, lp dot com. Wash five. Three eight California is holding an election to recall a governor gave a new some on September, fourteenth if Newsome were to lose, you would be replaced by whichever candidate gets the most votes on that same ballot. Now the election was Europe. Has a republican activists collected about a million and a half signatures between last fall in the spring? The Riis did not originally appear competitive, but two recent polls show that's changed to some degree. So a university of California Berkeley Pull found that fifty percent of life

recall? Voters want to keep Newsome and forty seven percent want. We call him and Emerson college pulse and forty eight percent of registered voters want to keep Newsome and forty three percent wanted we caught. So those margins are between three and five points are bringing on especial guest to help us make sense of what's happening in California, our very own, in turn, em a really is based in the Bay area and is joining us now to discuss the recall election in her state. Welcome to the show Emma thank IRAN's excited. I'm excited to have you here so Emma to kick things off. Why is Gavin Newsome being recalled on a political level? We know the nuts and bolts they got enough signatures whatever, like what problem do? Californians have we're Gavin Usin, Sir. I think a lot of born attribute covered to this. But actually this is the sixth attempt to recall governess and since he came into office and note this most recent attempt was introduced in February one twentieth of before covered- was even a thing and it was introduced

group of champion Conservatives, California, Patriot Collision, introduce this most recent recall attempt at Christmas Did you do with nuisance, opposition and resistance to trunks, handling of undocumented immigrants, and just a lot of other traditional ideological positions that don't have anything to do with covered nuisance although champion of a lot of democratic and progressive initiative since being Mare of San Francisco and converse, stands for almost everything republicans are against, but we ve come a long way since then, Sir, as you mentioned, there were five failed. Attempts to this may have well become another failed. The tab, if it weren't for certain things lining up in his opponents favours, are where did it go from that original effort in February till now? So I think that the reason why this recall attempt actually stuck this time has a lot to do with covered first on the procedural level. Just like you sand petitioners, to get a certain number of signatures and twelve percent of the turn out from the last governor election. So about one half men signatures,

to do it in a certain amount of time which they weren't able to do. But then a judge gave him an extra for months because of covert to get those signatures and the reason they were able to get their signatures also has to do with covered it because of the french Laundry incident and haven't in November, when photos leaked of gave a new some others can fancy dinner unmasked indoors against all of his covered guidance as which really upset a lot of Californians show. How do we get from environment estate, where someone like Joe Biden, is winning the presidential election. By about thirty points to apply is where Newsome is only leading in this effort to not be recalled by three to five points at the moment right. So you have to think that there are people who support Democrats who now don't necessarily support Newsome. What's the story of how we get to that place, we're like Democrats, seemingly or at least less meaning and depend

or whatever are also not pleased, with definition yeah losing its. I followed him I should say in the Bay area, where support for governess and pulls the highest in this area and also some What county is the most democratic County in California? I think research, Democrats, Burbage stood Republicans nine to one here. This is a very specific californian Democrat. I ve been talking to you and I The interesting thing is a lot of the reasons. Maybe that republicans aren't supportive of Gavin Newsom or it? Why he's not so popular on both sides on the far left and the far right are kind of similar in some ways like there's just a general like just trusting put it it's an feeling like their tied up in these kind of corporate interests. Of course they can. regions from from those are poor, opposite from the violet dome right, but the reasons for why he's not so popular among both cancer strangely,

similar? I would also say that, actually, I think it's more about disproportionate republican interest and depressed democratic interest. In the recall than necessarily that Newsome is suddenly less popular among Democrats, So you see that this in the polling number, so the Berkeley Pole, which was the tightest Paul it showed it being a three point race where the recall effort was trailing. My only three points that was among like the voters and in the past, but Lee, and actually this time also Berkeley had pulled registered voters, and the poll was a lot less close, so ass in this specific law. If you look at just registered voters, fifty one percent work, posed to the recall and thirty six percent or in favour, whereas when you had a filter down to just, likely voters. It was a lot closer and that's because that the poor also found that eighty percent of, Hoboken said they are absolutely certain. They were gonna vote, but only fifty five percent of Democrats dead. So I think

challenge for new. Some isn't necessarily you that he's lost these democratic voters, but use needs to kind of convince them to vote, and I think that there are for reasons why he might be successful unless I think one big one is that he has a ton of money he has risen. over twelve million dollars in tv ads for the final month of the race. I think that's probably gonna do a lot to just informed. What kind of voters that there is a recall action- and I think that the vast majority of them, because of some partisanship, will vote for Gavin Newsome to stay in office. And then the second is that this is actually going to be an all male election, the covert era, election law changes that happened in twenty? Twenty have been extended through the end of twenty twenty one in California, and that means that everybody in California can we mailed a ballot, and, or an election like two thousand and twenty that might not matter, because everybody was going to go to the Kohl's anyway, because it was such a high profile election for an Please schedule an election like this one, just getting that ballad in the mail is going to be, I think an important reminder to people to hey. There is an election, I should vote in it and

increases turn out. It's not necessarily that mill elections benefit Democrats as we know, but it can go against a scenario where its election day and the poles are empty, except for the really rabid, Newsome Haters. So if there's any kind of representative voting across Democrats, independence and Republicans in California in this election, there should be enough of those Democrats and independence to save Newsome. Although we should save, there's been a clear shift in this election in the sense that, even just a month ago, we saw a closer rakes. Is it that just like, for the past month. Republicans, I've just got him that much more enthusiastic or are there other issues playing out in California that have changed so that an amicable settlement think it might be what Emma was getting at? The polls show strong enthusiasm among Republicans, but that's kind of always been true. They were the ones mounting the recall effort. There have been die hard fans to get new some out of office for a while

but if new, some you know his approval rating in the state and both the Emerson, Paw and then the Berkeley Paul kind. I have him at fifty percent approval, which is in terrible but is not really great, either So it's more so I think this atrophy among democratic voters are not necessarily against new some, but are they really bad? energize to go out and support him. So before, Most recent polls we saw pulling from May and those showed a wave larger gap between people who, for the recall, people against the recall and I mean that was right when Newsome was talking about this giant, seventy six billion dollar surplus that he manage coming out of fifty four billion dollars. Deficit heading into the pandemic and met with the federal funds in this kind of tax scheme, use able to come out this huge, safer surplus and he was talking about how he is going to spend this money in a six billion for renewable energy and climate projects and for housing initiatives and in education and public health and soap

that time and may I think he was pulling a lot higher and now This is done more heated as these other republican recall candidates and but also the situation has changed, I think, with delta making cases surge again, the situation has become a kind of fraud and is getting more criticism now than I think back then, when things are kind of looking like they're going on up, the curious are based on the data work. On reporting. What seems to be the most salient issues in this recall campaign? Is it covered because, obviously, California has been the topic of a lot of conversation about different challenges from wildfires to droughts, to housing. California is losing population. In fact, we learn from the most recent census. What's being debated, this recall action without a doubt across the Democrats and Republicans, housing is a huge issue. There are a hundred, sixty thousand think on house all in California, it's a huge problem, and since we,

Worse. Climate is another huge issue that PVC poll showed that the drought is like that one, environmental issue that It gave a new samples actually quite high in terms of his environmental, renewable energy issues kind of similar to Biden, but he has faced criticism in from underground talking to people, know and necessarily false Gavin news her though wildfires and getting a lot. We won't be able to say who would do a better job with wild eyes, but there wasn't investigation recently about how he can slash the budget for a while fireproof, gin and promise to treat like ninety thousand acres of fires and would only ended up being like twelve thousand a fraction of that ends and means responding to that yeah. If you look at the Berkeley Paw, they actually asked likely voters what the in that new some should be recalled was so forty, eight percent of likely voters said that the governor should be recalled quote because he has failed to adequately address many of the state's long standing problems and

legally smaller percentage. Forty four percent said that he should be recalled quote because he greatly overstepped his authority as governor when responding to the cove and nineteen pandemic. So and on this point from several years ago, whilst that one, it does not seem like this as a covert focused thing, it seems like there is broader discontent, at least among a highly energized republican electorate, with nuisance policies in general. So we job partners on whether it might not be so happy with him. What are the alternatives sheer and how heavily well that way on whether or not Newsome is recalled because again on the ballot. These are two separate questions right. It's true crashing on one ballot. First, question Do you want to recall governors, I'm yes or no, and then second question is: who would you want to replace him? You could get a majority saying they want to recall, gave a new some, but whoever they want to read.

Place. I may not be the majority consensus candidate, it could just be a plurality winner. So how are the alternatives? Look? size. In that, frankly, I guess all adjourned Think Larry Elder pulled the highest like eighteen percent and he have jumped into the race last minute and has some of the greatest name recognition and he's very republican. Conservative talk, radio show host candidate sue rate. As Emma said, Larry Elder has the most important the pool, but even still that's not a fifth of the response in the pool you have San Diego mayor, Kevin Falconer, running perennial candidate, John Coxe, who often camps alongside a bare and then I feel kind of note Lee Reality, tv star, Caitlin Jenner, a getting a lot of media coverage when she first jumped Dan. I think it's noteworthy that either poles she hasn't registered a lot of support and that may be has something to do with generous former opposition to Trump. But at this point there is a lot of,

those who are still undecided. That's where the plurality The voters are here That was a huge part of governance campaigners to put saying millions of dollars makes her there's no high profile. Democratic candidates was successfully able to do others, the one other Democrat, but I know, is a youtube- were The upshot of that right is that if enough people vote yes on the recall first question: one of these republican candidates would replace it are given every thing we ve said here that the poles have tightened. There are some reasons are that have to do with perhaps enthusiasm more than just raw preference. At this point, how worried should govern nuisance I would say he should take the re seriously, but as long as he does that he will probably be fine. If I were kind of assigning this political report asked grace rating, I would call it a likely de re psych. I then clearly it is not outside their own possibility of that new some could loosen the Republican.

Therefore become governor, but I mean the oral advantages- the money I already mentioned- California, being such a blue state that he really just needs to get so number of democratic voters out to the poles or the ballot mailboxes. I guess, and then people talk about the two thousand and three recall where Democratic Gray Davis was ousted from office and, of course, famously on our Schwarzenegger became governor, but there's some Differences there for Shall California wasn't as blue back then it was kind of morbid democratic, leaning, state them solidly democratic one. But then I think the big one is that, Davis was so so so unpopular. His poor reading was in a twenty is like new. Some is not in the universe. Ass I mentioned earlier he's got kind of this lukewarm approval rating and the poles of the recall showed the same thing they showed. There is very little doubt by the end of that campaign. That Davis skimming Recalled- and this is showing even though the race has heightened and those ports are within the margin of error. And yet we would encourage any candidate who is low

within the margin of error not to take the race for granted, it's not like the recall is winning by a slight amount amidst races either. So don't you would still kind of err on the side of it losing. So, in the end, I would be surprised, but I think it's gonna be erased, though attached to the island agree, I think it's definitely come down to turn out. I think, are clean and special elections in these kind of weird off here. Elections. Turnout is lower, electorate is white, older, more conservative. So there is reason to maybe not worry, but to take it seriously, especially with the polling and enthusiasm and like talk about earlier. You don't avenues and sign. The spell will guarantee every registered voters will get a mountain ballot, but we saw on national actions earlier this year and open in San Diego that there are still really low turn out even with this melon ballot system. So that doesn't say that guarantee everyone is going to go out and vote and just asking people here and like the most democratic area talking to inviting you got kind of

dear responses that one it's like out, one is election again and like what's going on that are too just like yeah. This is, they might not be strongly in support of a listen, but they think tat. This is just not the right time. It's a mass of the expensive, like upwards of two hundred fifteen million dollars being spent on this recollection, distraction at a time when California's facing kind of compounding crazy is of rising cover cases because delta sort drought and were entering upon another likely a terrible on wildfire season. So getting up the enthuse I think will see that in the next couple weeks, because melon bout actually will be coming August. Sixteen in two weeks, and I do think these annual start ramping up. I think a strategy of time an nationalizing. The recall election is probably a good strategy. in a state that Biden one by almost thirty points and

I haven't seen it yet, but I do expect to see a lot more Newsome adds falling into social media pages in the next week or so, although I haven't seen that kind of buzz yet again. You know I think it's important to say let you know six million people voted for Trump and California. This would not be the first time California gets a republican governor and the last time it happened, like you said, Nathaniel was in two thousand theory on a recall and in general you know, Californians have voted on more conservative policies, even in twenty twenty, a lot of the propositions, I think progressive earthquake disappointed like published on twenty two and precision sixteen, where voters rejected restoring affirmative action, so I thought Democrats feel quite safe here all the time and even in twenty twenty, when there is record turn out in the presidential election there is this feeling of complacency like like my vote. doesn't even matter as a Democrat in this deeply state which, where do you see,

discussions in the two thousand budget. Republicans were very passionate about this. We come and Democrats you dont have as big as an interest in it from the pulling our raw. Let's leave things there. Of course we will watch what happens next, but thank you so much for joining us to Emma before you wrap up. We do have a good or bad use appalling, but first Today's package is brought, you buy rumble on dot com, do have a motorcycle atv or even a truck that sitting in your garage that you ve been waiting to sell, the rumble on dot com, you can easily turn your unused vehicle into cash in minutes. Rumble on dot com will give you a cash offer for your vehicle and pick it up for free anytime anywhere. hardly Polaris can am Yamaha, and even if you're, just looking to trading rumble on, will pay cash, no matter what the make or model visit rum

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It's behind the issue. They end each week show by diving into a rabbit hole of data from the strangest fifty point games in the NBA to the ever larger gullies of the end of our don't mess hot takedown available every Tuesday. Wherever you find, your pot casts last week, the Euro cents a spur announced that it would not be releasing the results of the twenty twenty american community survey. That's because, according to the bureau, response rates were historically low due to covet and did not exist a representative sample of the american public. So a little background on the american community survey before we get to judging whether or not this is a good or bad use of pulling so the senses tries to reach every single person in the country, but that only happens once every ten years now while the american Community survey or Asia, S for short, is an actual pull that just takes a sample, although it's a rather large sample. Three point: five million Americans, but they do it every single

here, as opposed to just every ten years and the census, also asked very basic information about age sex and raise. While the american community survey is far more detailed, it asks about jobs, income, in past disabilities, marital status, citizenship status, internet access, health insurance, even the number of vehicles owned by a family where the types of appliances that they have, and so this data is used by all kinds of companies, its use by journalists achieved by us here at five thirty, eight frequently and senses publications have cited that this data is used to influence more than six hundred billion dollars and federal spending every year. So those are the stakes here. The american community, Serbia, is not just some abstract, boring poor. Whatever here is the question only seventy one percent of participants responded to the survey in twenty twenty that was the lowest ever response rate in the past. In twenty nineteen, it was eighty six percent

before that it was ninety two percent, the sense of fear decided not to release the survey this year as a result. Is that a good or bad use of Poland since good in the sense that they are not going to release a pull, that they are not tough in it and that they have a high enough response rate? One thing, though, I think that you know is in interesting challenge here, and this is the pandemic, and so in their a memo, the senses, Spiro said that they were able to. You know, have a period which they could try to solve. Some of the issues with the non response rate. They were, though, with sensors, and so I think, some ways I kind of wished They had said you know what we're gonna delay this even further to try to get the data in a way that it could be usable for twenty twenty. They see, no to have instead, move towards, like we're, gonna release an experimental data, sad that with proper waiting, can kind of be used as a replacement, and I assume that had to have been done for like time and resources,

say that this is a good non use of pulling the census. Bureau was transparent about the problem. They are not releasing data that could have been skewed, but they are released. experimental version in kind of like a hidden place on their website. As far as I understand it, so that researchers who are interested in seeing madam I playing around with that an and maybe trying to figure out what went wrong or how does vary from reality can still play with it. So I think that is a good use of transparency and gaiety thing. I think, notably something that we sat on the package in the past, as we have criticised pollster like political pollsters, who conducted Poland than think it's wrong. and then don't release it, because they don't wanna be partially judged, are being an outlier something. But I think this is very different because it is a poor, methodological ie, but its role in this

I ve in an analysis is very different from a political point, because this is, as Galen mentioned, kind of a foundational data set for researchers and for policymakers and so releasing something that in all likelihood is wrong, would really, I think, be damaging to a whole host of professions and policies man you're standing to, is that like when they release the experimental data there doing a right up to about the issues they experienced? What went wrong as well? I think that's a really good show of transparency. The first question I had when I saw this was a response rates were so poor for the twenty twenty american communities array. How can we trust the result?

of the broader twenty twenty decennial sense, ass, an eye assets in the context of people have been questioning the results of the twenty twenty cents as because of most maybe high profile, at least in our world, is the way that congressional deserts have been apportioned because of the census data. So like should we have questions about the census data after hearing this about the american dream there were no, namely because the census had a lot more resources at its disposal, so to be clear what we, what that? Yes, yes, what we ve seen with other polls is a real phenomenon of non response, however, the census, particularly because its conducted at a particular time they deploy thoust and thousands of people into the field going. In assessing addresses in collecting data that way the ACS. It was possible to do it

that manner, and so that's why I think we're kind of in this experimental field now for how they're gonna released the twenty twenty data. Yet it was interesting, the explanation, the verse of despair gave about the non response by us in the american communities whereby they said that the population that responded had quote significantly different social, economic and housing characteristics from those who did not so is the american juniors or re essentially running into the same challenges that other even like election pollsters are, and if that's the case, do we know for sure that this is a code related issue and not a broader issue of non response by us. I do not think that these are related issues, so my understanding, having read what the census put out there, is that it

is pandemic related, they seem very convinced of that and they laid out all these reasons for why the pandemic really hamper their results. So they conduct the american community service by mail and then take in their results and process them and then send out people in person to follow up a people who didn't respond and a thorough different from how political poles are conductor, which has deployed by phone or online and the census. Also, this very kind of one key reason why, like physically, like they print there things and stop the envelopes and then process the results in like this big warehouse in Indiana and they physically couldn't do that task. It's not a task that can be done virtually the physically could not do this task for months in twenty twenty, and so when you talk about the issues of political pause, I haven't heard as an explanation the fact that the pollsters operations themselves were impacted. I dont see how that would be the case. There has obviously been several explanations proposed for what happened with the twenty twenty

Political poles, including the mistrust of institutions, explanation at the one pandemic, related thing that I have heard is that Democrats worsen, home, more and listening to covered restrictions, whereas republicans were flouting the more and going outside, and therefore Democrats were ones at home. Picking up the phone- and I dont think that is the issue here, because the EAST, isn't measuring Democrats sources, Republicans and, in fact, The appeal are reports that we talked about on the Pike ass, the other day which try to diagnose the problem specifically said that the Poles warrant, having trouble coming up with a representative sample of Americans based on demographics, race, sex on the things that the ac s measures. It was specifically that they couldn't wait their way to a representative sample of trump versus by voters. There was something about Trump voter, specifically, there was being missed and again because the Esias isn't asking about this. That's the key here. In fact, I'm just gonna refer to something from the airport

report, which I thought was very interesting, so they actually tried to adjust the results of some of the surveys that were wrong to wait them retrospectively to the results of the election and- Jennifer Adjuster CNN, wrote this exercise. Did not significantly move the numbers for demographics like age, race, education or gender, but it did move the numbers for partisanship and for self reported two thousand and sixteen vote. So that's why I kind of just don't think that the ACS is running into the same issue, because not trying to measure the same thing. so actually disagree with Nathaniel, but all I mean obviously fight nerd fight so mean obviously, but the census collecting is very different from a horse Reese poor. I completely understand that that said, though, this, concept of non response rate and the idea that is concentrated among people with lower income and lower educational attainment? That's all the true and what we ve seen in the post mortem here for the political horse. Races poles. So I do think we have seen and erosion

trust in our institutions, whether that is a political pole asking who you will support for president or what it's your census. Bureau. Trying to understand who you are is an American and yes, there have been specific pandemic, related issues, partition for the census itself, but remember like that, in this sense census is collecting, is a lot less granular than what the ACS collects. The ACS wants to know a lot more about the highest level of education. You receive median household income lives in the house. What your role is in the house and that kind of data, Trust in institutions is already low. Why is someone going to respond to that verses, appall, asking that they support for president? I dont know if people would draw a distinction of like trusting one and not the other, and the fact that in both instances, that kind of non response rate has been found, and as Galen cited at the top, we ve seen response rate to the easy as dip in the last three cycles. It's been ass, I neither

it does suggest that there is a larger problem here in terms of getting people to respond. That is representative of the whole. U S. see I thought the guidelines numbers were pretty suggested that it was the pandemic, because the numbers were ninety two percent in eighteen, eighty, six percent and nineteen and then away down to seventy one percent in twenty twenty, and so I do feel like if it had been about just mistrust of institution. That would have shown up earlier. I know that that is a kind of a spite decrease, but, like I am clearly that drop off from nineteen to twenty was very steep and, logically speaking, it seems like the pandemic is to blame and again just because, like we do know, I mean maybe it answers both, but we do know like literally the Census bureau, was unable to male physically male these things for three months, and so there is this a huge gap in the data. What I would like to now. He actually, I'm glad that we have this back and forth. Is that I wonder what the response rate in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen were

that first wave so I put this issue- was that they eventually were able to male things, but they weren't able to do in person follow up So I wonder what the response rates in twenty eighteen and two thousand and nineteen were to just the mailing and then how much extra they got from the in person follow ups and maybe want to take out the in person, follow ups and do an apples to apples comparison with eighteen and nineteen Seymour similar rates I'd be curious. This is ending dodo, but during the pandemic yard, from political pollsters at their response rates were actually increasing and the response rates for political poles are so much though, like you know, these members are we talking about of ninety eighty? Even seventy percent. These are very, very high versus political pulling where there's wants returned the single digit. So there is a lot to me. That is an apple stop us with us,

sure. I think we're I would leave. It, though, is in terms of we seem to be dancing around this problem, both in political poles, census balls Poles from Pew about getting the right people to respond. There are people not responding to poles, it seems to trend lower income, lower educational attainment, and so I think, you're right in the sense that there are number of motivating factors for why that might be. Some of it is just pandemic related camp contact them both and some of it could speak to. Why aren't they responding to the pole? Do they feel alienated? Do they not trust democracy? Are there other factors here then, at play for why people dont want to engage in this?

not civic duty, but you know a way in which we understand the data and are in our country you're. Well, fortunately, we conduct the american curious or re every year or so ago, all be paying close attention to what kind of data and what kind of response raids very able to collect this year and twenty twenty one, which again, is maybe not quite a normal year, but will see an going forward with twenty twenty two's. Or we will keep eyes on bus as well, but let's leave it there for today, I think, all round we decided that this was a good use of pulling. If you don't think you have good data say so thanks Census, bureau, but also you know, important questions underline that as well. But, thank you. Sarah atmosphere excuse Galen. My name is Galen droop Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing and is also in the control room today, alongside a really are in turn things again, Emma for being so great on the planet has today you get it. How white uniting us at pie cast at five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments

Your fan of the show leave us a rating or review in the apple pie. Tat store foretell someone about us thanks for listening, and we will see her.