Who hello and welcome to the five hundred and thirty eight politics podcast, I'm Dealin Route Democrats might not have gotten the landslide they wanted this November, but they did expand the political map and some pretty meaningful ways. Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona on the presidential level, since one thousand nine hundred and ninety six and the first to win Georgia since one thousand nine hundred and ninety two, if two thousand and sixteen show that the upper Midwest wasn't play for Republicans on the presidential level, twelve,

when he has shown that the sunbelt is in place for Democrats and both of those developments could mean a wider and more uncertain political map going forward. So in order to better understand how these ships happened and how durable they are today we're gonna zoom in on Georgia in particular, it was probably the biggest upset wind for Democrats and how democratic the state is is gonna, be tested again in less than seven weeks as listeners probably know, there are two Senate runoff elections that are that are going to decide which party controls the? U S Senate. So here in me to dive deep into Georgia. Politics is senior politics, writer, Perry, big and junior, hey Parry,

He'll likewise, and also joining us from the road in George. I think driving from land to make in right now is at last a journal constitution, political reporter Gregg, boosting Hague right things. Rather me thanks so much for taking the time. I know that Georgia, political coverages, hectic these days for those of you watching this unusual that Gregg is in his car, pulled over not actually driving paying attention to the past Leia thanks so much for taking the time Gregg. Let's start with you and in order to put twenty twenty in two context, I think we should back up a little bit and talk about what politics have looked like in Georgia over the past couple decades. So how red has the state been historically cigarette question? It has been a very solid republican state, the last immigrants to win Georgia in a White House raised, was Bill Clinton back in nineteen, eighty two Republicans, starting in two thousand, to started winning ticking off state wide seats

steadily consolidated power in Georgia. The last Democrat to win a state it office in Georgia was back in two thousand and six so he's been steady republican role here in Georgia that has been kind of steadily, also rolling back. If you look at the margins, they're getting tighter and tighter and tighter republicans haven't had any easy coast victories really since twenty sixteen, when Johnny Isaacson easily one of his opponents, but twenty eighteen states Abrams showed that Democrats have a path back to flipping Georgia, and, as we saw in twenty twenty, that's what happened Perry you recently wrote on Article four. The website called how Georgia turned blue, and so we have this trend as Gregg described, where it's getting redder, essentially ever since Bill Clinton wanting in ninety ninety two: where is the turning point? When did things start to change in Georgia? As you see it,

all in all four John Kerry. Yet forty one percent of the vote and then o seven Obama get forty seven percent. There was a jump there. nobody will get us state where the Democrats, when the low forties too, in this order, the mid fortys and await and twelve in the vote in the Atlantic area, both the cid, even Lana, but also, more importantly, suburban Atlanta shifted left a little bit during the ongoing Obama to elections so that the shift their and basically with her and these two things: the Atlantic area is growing in size and so an open areas, kinda vote for Democrats in any land areas getting more democratic in part because People are moving their from other places for their jobs for businesses in part. This is getting much more racially diverse and then this is gonna, be black in Lhasa beans asian and latino publishers are growing there as well. So right now you have we're dead.

in a measure area somewhere between forty five, more than half of the people, George. You live in that Atlanta Metro area, so it really. Happen in twenty eighteen and twenty twenty with the latter, it's really a ten about voted the rest of the state and is still pretty conserving the very worst things your article pointed out. First Smart was People can see the suburbs, and maybe some other cities is a stand in for white voters, but not in Metro Atlanta when it county, one of our biggest suburbs, is a majority Minority County Cobb County, which has been republican stronghold for decades, is about to become a majority minority by voters make up like fifty one percent. So in a few years that will be the case and where I live, in the cab county is a majority black county that is one of the biggest strongholds for Democrats in the state, so I think people when they look at the suburban shift they tend to look at. Only white voters, who were maybe college educated women who are turning and strengthen. That is partly the case, but it's also because

the latter is so sprawling. There's no net all barriers to development in our city? There two rivers are mountains, no major rivers or mountains or oceans, or anything like that, and so the very very diverse population has has spread out and is starting to change those but in counties like Cobb and one that it have been run by public forever or now, having majority democratic county, why the offices I want to dig a little deeper into that question of which parts of the electorate exactly have shifted in the past four or so years before we get into that nitty gritty. Can you put into some perspective how much Georgia politics revolve around Atlanta? Why? If you win the Atlanta area and the suburbs around Atlanta, you win, the state is that dominant for Democrats it his eyes. Terry mentioned the half. The population of the state is focused on it,

we we have other commit sized cities were Kennedy campaign, Savannah Columbus, making Augusta, but most of the attention is focused for Democrats on Metro, Atlanta and Firstly, for Republicans, we really saw this and twenty eighteen Republicans kind of seated Metro Atlanta to Democrats. They didn't campaign much much Linda. They, of course, they still air millions of dollars worth of ads in Atlanta TV markets, but they really focused on small town in oh and exert urban areas of Georgia, rather than naturally suburbs, because that's where they, they racked up huge margins and counties that used to maybe go sixty or seventy percent to Mitt Romney. When eighty and ninety percent to buying camp in Donald Trump over the last four years. In so that's where Republicans are really trying to undercut Democrats gains in those Mitchell in several areas

just to clarify that bind and one around sixty five percent of the vote in the measure area than Lana. But an outsider, you one about thirty, seven percent of about four very lopsided electorates for both Republicans and Democrats geographically, but that also is a significant change from what we ve seen historically right, I mean, I think, when people think of the Atlanta suburbs, they think of national political characters, like New Gingrich, for example, shows like what exactly has changed in those suburban areas and also I'm curious where's. The dividing line between suburban, an Ex urban because it sounds like republicans- are still winning ex urban areas. So what exactly is happening in the suburbs and

has not changed or want to stay the same in X. Urban areas, the are wholly crap moment, was twenty. Sixteen, when we all kind of figured Trumpeton Wood wind Georgia easily need any day one by five point, so a smaller margin than Mitt Romney, ear or John Mccain carry the state, but still one without really exerting much effort in the state he never visited. He didn't have much of a campaign operation here, but our holy crop moment was win win that both flipped Cobb, narrowly brunette by a little bit more without any of that institutional effort, and that was a start and then John us off a few months later runs for Tom Prices, old congressional seat which had been repealed. for more than two decades, which Tom Price and easily one by more than twenty points against cover stand in democratic figure who didn't really campaign ray?

thirty million dollars and comes within a whisker of winning that seat. That was a huge wake up call to the nation not just about Georgia's political changes, but also the suburban political changes that were happening everywhere. Something part of it is the suburbs have become increasingly diverse, as we mentioned before, they're, not just this homogenous white area that has been traditionally conservative. Another part is the drain. Of especially white College educated women, who used to vote Republican for maybe fiscal reasons, who were upset by trumpet also goes beyond that also upset it. What was happening in the state, the antiabortion heartbeat the past in Georgia. Last year I really have a nice a lot of women who are pro abortion rights and who were upset about those changes in flocked to the poles. So I think those are two of the changes and then, as you mentioned, the eggs herbs, which are basically see those as there's five or six core mutual inequalities that ring the city and then there's eight or nine

in countries that ring those those have been republican strongholds for a long time, we're talking like Cherokee County for safeguarding and very densely populated, not as densely populated those inner suburbs. But that's where Republicans get some big margins and Terry highlighted one of them for safe county. That's where David Purdue and Kelly Leffler held their first joint event just a few days ago. That's how important it is to Republicans Donald Trump One that county by about seventy one percent. If my math is right back in twenty, sixteen he's lost, five points there in twenty twenty. In those five points matter, when the margins in Georgia, like thirteen thousand votes, yeah parents, how are you conceptualizing some of those changes in your reporting, the keys media, ok, so Biden one it is indeed a land area was so being and with more left then before in there a gradual trend. In really the Abrams campaign really grew Hillary

forty percent even get about forty eight, forty, nine and inviting get forty nine entities with a little rational grow in isolation, looking at the end of the story is a land of what happened in Atlanta in I had four theories about it. First and Gregory first was just anti trump sentiment so because two thousand and sixteen two thousand and eighteen, two thousand and twenty the Atlanta suburbs all get a little more progressive EAST assessor cycles. that does tell you there, probably worse some voters who move from from- and I think that's probably both people who may be more public as before, who shifted, but I think it so might be people who didn't vote before. I assume there he's somewhere like adding Abrams, get around one point: nine million votes into dozen eighteen, the personal rights for governor regime of Anti doesnt fourteen Jason Corner get around one point: one million voters so there's a bit

Turning first to also obtain agrees on the GEO peace. I do so. The Democrats do have a train. Greece is republican, terrain agrees, but I think there is any evidence, Oh rather is a mobilization effect going on the second. I talked about has eaten from sixteen two dozen twenty. I think George, you the area is growing so much. I think there is a real transplant affect their where people are moving there, who went there before so things are bigger. Relevant is, like Abrams has been talking for ten years ahead of us on one person than ravens isn't saying for ten years. The Democrats should focus less on moving white swing, voters and more on people of color. The Atlantic area and younger people and people of color again, not just black people, but also the growing asian and latino population in some some ways, like the Ebro strategy of doing that, she spent thousands of euros eighties of executing it into as a nineteen. She

whose memo to democratic saying we can really win, Georgia laid out steps really push for their peoples. the candidate in some ways, she's more the candidate and worn out and also our lives He has been in doing this and it looks like it worked and then anything thing using looks like by did a little bit better than us off or war not did in their racism. They might go. Packing people, new land area, don't like trunk by wonder of maybe by the desert. The elder few voters that Abrams in us off couldn't win yeah, that's a good point bearing a large extent and two of them. What is that Biden over perform? John us off one of the two democratic send it considers, but her thousand votes. So there's like some evidence that there may be some swing or crossover republican votes, but secondly, what you talked about Stacy Abrams strategy

and I know this is happening nationally, but both parties and twenty a team made the clear decision that it wasn't worth it to go purely after Swain voters, like Democrats had been doing for years in Georgia in twenty fourteen. That was conscious and Carter strategy when human for governor he ran it as an inner re democrat because you didn't think he could women in this If you win as liberal or states, Abrams proved that, by embracing liberal ideals and by talking about things, the Democrats in Georgia didn't talk about like gun control, you could make giant gains were worth the bang for your dollars to energize core supporters, who might not vote knees mid term alone since then trying to go after swing. Voters in the suburbs, somebody that, because you wanna get those anyway, and so he knew so that the same thing with blanket he didn't focus on time and to appeal to those wing voters either. He said his campaign was basically a red wall campaign where they quietly went after Trump. Porters and sixteen who didn't views about midterms either

and then we really saw that in twenty twenty in you're about to see them. Twenty twenty one, but these run off because again neither these for candidates are spending much time persuading they're all motives. Their basis to come back out because they think rightly believe they get. Ninety fibres, their bases back out. They ve won this thing by a landslide. This kind of debate between persuasion and turn out, which is always somewhat of a dumb debate that we have in the

political analysis, community around elections, because, of course, generally winning elections will acquire something of both and sometimes whatever can help persuade voters can also help turn out voters and so they're not completely disconnected from each other, but I do want to linger on this for a second, because it's been somewhat of a debate in the post election analysis of Georgia. How much of the change from two thousand sixteen to twenty twenty is based on turn out or even demographic changes, so the Atlantic area becoming more diverse, for example, verses, actual vote. Switching, I know Nate Cone friend of the podcast over at the New York Times. Upshot didn't analysis. That said, essentially, fifteen percent of the change from two thousand sixteen to two thousand twenty is based on

demographic changes, but that the majority of the change just from two thousand to two thousand twenty is actually votes, which means that the thing that got Biden over the line are people in the Atlantic area who were actually maybe supporting Republicans in two thousand. Sixteen and now supporting Joe Biden over all. Of course, Abiden lost white voters by forty points in Georgia. So it's not like the white electorate is now supporting Democrats overwhelmingly. But how do you to think about this argument between the turn out or demographic changes and the votes which others who is responsible for a turn Georgia bewail, as one might put it. This is the kind of a cop I think it's both. I think there is a blend of both. You certainly had Some Republicans who switched over because they couldn't stomach another term of Trump, but they still voted and down ticketing, just like you saw many parts of the nation. Republicans did pretty well

here down about. We lost another congressional see in next org when I counted, but that was also the home of the tightest congressional race in the nation just two years ago. So I don't think many Republicans thought they hold onto that This is an open seed that income at Rob. What are decided not to run and down ticket Democrats we're looking at other ten eleven net gain in the state legislature and they ain't it. with about two or three net gain and lost the housemaid order leader or the last white rural Democrats. So you saw both. Those trends happen down the ballot. I think Georgia's gonna be more of a Florida that Virginia going forward. I think that we're getting used to it, very, very thin margins in these races? But I think too, that Stacy from showed the model and Brian tempted as well Can it be about voter mobilization? I don't know it's a scam, debate we always have, but they're not going for the broad base messages right now. They are appealing directly to their core audiences,

and it's like different universes, going on we're seeing other leaks of Reverend Warnock sermons that the Republicans hope will come back to haunt Warnock he's, not he's barely addressing them here. Focusing on his own base and really like these things were energized both sides, we also need to think about this might be. I dont totally always understand exactly what the goal of these mobilization verses. Persuasion pieces: are they both but is very likely that the majority in, if not the majority, the plurality of people who voted for Joe Biden in Georgia are black. So I think this horse talking, I really years, did black but waited for him ordered. Why.

when it for him in my senses, did the black port was essential to get closed. Initially white part was probably MR over the lines in some ways. Both groups mattered. You need a big black group to win in Georgia. I don't want to dismiss those people by saying they were already there. The fact they were there is essential to keep close in the first place, be important not to focus more on the Swiss between sixteen and twenty, as opposed to the overall pie of the voters, which, in the first was needed, is big black group. Did you close yeah there's another part of that too, which is yes, white voters have then dominant the republican set of elections in Georgia, but their surprise, but for Democrats here, the magic marker has always been thirty percent. They wanted to get thirty percent of white vote and they felt like a they can get around there. They ve got a really good shot flipping the state and they got close to thirty percent stolen marking is because there is a significant amount of voters who don't state their race when they, register Devout, sir. We're not exist

please shore, but the numbers I've seen gets them in the neighbourhood of thirty percent, which, if you compare it to twenty. Sixteen exit polls, showed Hillary Clinton at twenty one percent. The whitefoot severe at an eight or nine percent gain from it that help. Show you why? Yes, black voters are literally the backbone of the Democratic coalition in Georgia, but if you get it nearly double digit increase from sixteen of white voters. That will get you over the finish line. I want to talk about how durable some of these ships are an maybe what the run off elections can tell us, but first

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We never run off where Sinnott Control hangs in the balance, I think, just as importantly, we were just talking about the basis of democratic, Voters in Georgia, being african Americans, we never had run off with a black candidate at the top of the ticket, like we do right now with reverent raphia Wardour, who is the pastor of Martin Luther King Ginger's church in the heart of Atlanta, whose back by Stacy Rooms. So Democrats hope that with him on the ticket with John Joseph, who also has a fervent following an end, is going to be the first jewish senator in Georgia. History so he'll bring a different appeals. Well, they hope that with those two at the top of the ticket, they can bring out a core of voters who just don't vote in a lot of these run off races and in short, history parent. How are you thinking about the ways that the electorate in the run off

action might change between November third and January faith. I dont know, I'm sort of weary of the conditional view was seized him sort of hint that the black boat won't turn out further Democrat. I have to get this a lot of what s inside my I don't know, I think they do. No runoffs historically have had lower turnout overall, and so that probably means a lot of people are not participating. But I think this is going to be a different environment, and so I Really. I think we should watch and see. I don't have one strong predictions, both campaigns there has a lot of any very involved in it. I did the court thing that I think is less the M turn out like we had a big turnout election. It looks like there's a sliver of people who will vote for a Purdue, but one vote for trot restarted. Headlights area sauna think that produce closer to fifty Then I saw and I'll be surprised. I don't think question I think it's like

Georgia may have more Republicans than Democrats unless its trump is running yeah. I guess there's also. This kind of new piece of the equation in which has trumps republican coalition has started to rely so much on rural white voters and Non college educated white voters who may also be low, propensity voters and who may not show up in a run off at the same rate that the Republicans old coalition in likely early ought in Georgia might have so. I guess that's an open question, yeah just sing! That's why you're seeing Republicans tiptoeing around trump- even I think more so, then? There are naturally here in Georgia, because they are desperately worried. The ticking him off the conceding that he lost the election will burn him. They will jeopardize any sort of of his support worth. His loyal base He came to Georgia the Sunday before the election to Northwest Georgia in the area of Rome. Georgia were is heavily republic area and tens of thousands of people showed up. There's little airport in our is happening around the country

But it was a reminder to me of how fervent that bases in a lot of voters who don't usually vote in these lower turn out elections, so David producing Kelly, Leffler Reliant on him, and they can't make it an argument, they wish they could make. I think right now to those carnival more middle of the road Republika voters and then are you. we'll be hey democratic about have complete control of Washington. If we don't stand up right now, we're not the firewall and they can make their argument because they haven't conceded the Trump Lhasa shoot being on the ground. Does it seem like Leffler and produce are taking the more trumpets approach to winning an election in Georgia, because you would think if, as Perry mentioned, there seem to be Republicans who don't like tromp but are Kay with Purdue that part of putting together a winning coalition is appealing to those suburban aids in the

wanna area, who don't really like the trump style of politics, but are they playing the trump style of politics, or are they also trying to play the Chamber of commerce style politics that were Georgia, republican politics for decades so far, Trump gender politics? So far, it's been Democrats will amount to the road to socialism. Its China and is echoing trumps rhetoric about the false narrative that the election was stolen came out really early just a few days ago and basically appeased present trump. I calling for the Secretary of State of Georgia who's the top elections official, whose also republican to resign because of what saw as faulty oversight of the system. didn't bring any evidence of widespread fraud and only on background did one of the campaigns bring us reasons why he should resign and basis DE it was exactly the same reasons. The Stacey Abrams had criticised Republicans for clean Brian camp when he was this

Thursday for like long lines, technical glitches at the polls. All these issues, leaving here Republicans, complain about not only two years ago, but also after our really bad knelt down in the June I'm here where we had people waiting, aligns four eight nine hours at the polls because of poorly trained poor workers and in all sorts of glitches at the system. So I just found it very. She ought to know what the best word is hypocritical, whatever might be the Republicans were just choosing right now to bear the same issues, the Democrats had the raising four years. So that's what kind of campaign that left, Lauren Perdue running Perry? What kind of campaign are often Warner? so also has been doing a little bit of that sort of I'm not for the green new deal, I'm not for medical care for all, I'm. Never even the police were not doing some of that so in the running in Georgia they ve never, so I did they are going to tiptoe into the sea, zone a little bit and try to figure that out, while also mobilizing the base to you know. There's talking Biden MIKE

down there I'll be curious. Debt happens, also Obama. I see the republic just running more, what sort of a base campaign and even Abrams I've like- ran a little bit more of a swing, it was not Jason harder, but I do the GMO roads restrain see them. the reality is that they need to do more persuasion and new problems. Yeah they ve got a robot a lot of these allegations to. I mean really interesting, because three of these four candidates have been defined publicly us off started running twenty seventeen, a ton of attention everyone, a measure Atlanta, seems to have seen one of his commercialism shore way back women, sixty milk I've just been raised already just for this run off Thirty million dollars plus has been spent. Didn't tv airtime. So it's ridiculous. A torn of money, David produce better offers for six years. Kelly left

or has had a year or so of campaigning and dug Collins. So there are pretty well the fine gruffly Warnock had the field to himself. There is very few attacks on him from either the Republicans running. As there are more focused, Doug Collins and Kelly Leffler we're just battering each other, and so you can have had their fields himself and right now. He is just getting hard and bruised every day by different leaks of his past sermons, or is past stances or or two thousand to arrest, and he has a lot less time to answer those charges. Then if they had come out in August or April, whenever something that's one of the more interesting dynamics of this race and as we have mentioned, there are running as a package deal I mean, of winning and we're not losing wouldn't help. Democrats at all. Let me stay republican still so control the Senate, so lovelorn You were running at join events. They barely talk to each other in public, at least during the first phase is amazed because it was so contentious on the republican side. Now they're, showing up at events that I'm driving down to shortly will be a

given their having an warlock and also for running jointly as well. So that means any attack on WAR Knox past men's whatever they may be. They could also hurt us off just like any attack on lets. A David produce stock transactions could drag down leffler wrapping up here and going back to our thirty thousand foot view. How durable are the political changes that we ve seen in Georgia, and how much will these Senate run tell us about their durability. So basically what happened in the strong euro with Abrams and then with the and also was the Democrats have been kept for like around forty five forty six in most Georgia raises. They live a while with Abrams forty nine, also forty nine Warnock any other tomorrow.

Forty nine Biden. Basically, almost fifty so look uniform. I believe you have also only gets forty seven. Then I might hey? Maybe this was all a bit of Antioch, something as opposed to a bigger share, because I think part of what she wasn't borders: raises in Georgia were all really close and Democrats, one one when they can run on the anti trump disrupt I mean we don't know if I can see, but these runoffs, what happened environment most voters, I assume we'll be thinking trump- is no longer president. My vote is not picking at the front anymore. It's like a different process. So if I and we're not still get in the forty eight forty nine his own. That tell me that Georgia is a very closely the company would leave. Probably a little bit. If, during the forty five forty six now mental tell me this was like anti trumpeting and the democratic and still have trouble in arrangements in a really hard in this thing, otherwise, without trial, our great area hard to read too much into these returns it. But I expect

higher turnover we ve ever had run off in Georgia, history and which is not a huge predictions and make us. If you look at the last, amazing eighteen- and this is an imperfect example, but still eighteen- we had A razor than margin between Stacy, Abrams and Brian Camp, In a few weeks later we had one offs. First secretary of state in a public service commission, see we're Republicans cut it easily. I mean they won by four five points that wasn't wasn't a blow out but you saw some of the same dynamics that Republicans and always used to win in Georgia. Kind of sudden Democrats too, the suburbs, but by a lesser margin, intended to be an older and wider electorate which help publicans. I can tell you, Republicans here every event I've been to our energized. You know, This is really interesting thing at these rallies. Mark Marco Rubio had a valiant Cobb County, which Democrats have flipped but is still a super important county for Republicans in Georgia, because it such a populous count and he didn't mention Donald Trump name once the entire event, but what he did

was this is the showdown of all show? Downs is as important as ever from Republicans to show up, and there is three hundred mostly I master Will this room who are rallied in ready to go and fired up, and I expect the same thing when I go down the Middle Georgia Perry Georgia, this event. In a few hours, there's gonna be just on a lot of energy on the ground and Democrats have the same thing. Democrats have a lot of energy to so think this will be looked at as a lot of ways right. A litmus test on present like binds administration, whether not theirs Democrats can show up to the poles of prison on the ballot mother, Republicans consort with holes and troubles. Another balance another I and I think, looked be looked at there. That narrative, but remember it's not your typical Georgia election arendt wrought. Thank you. So to both you

for clarifying the trends in Georgia and what to expect from this runoff election. So things very- and thank you great thank you guys things rather methinks scale he's doing Gregg losing is a political one. Quarter at the Atlanta Journal constitution. My name is gale. Andrew Tony chow is in the virtual control room Clare. Budgetary Curtis is on audio editing. You can get in touch my emailing us at podcast that five thirty eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments. If your friend of the show MRS Reding or review, and the Apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and will cease