Who hello and welcome to the five thirty politics pie, classed I'm Galen drink when done, tromp came under the sea and in two thousand fifty he was too. Talking about how Mexico was in his estimation sending drug dealers and rape us across the border? Some aunt assume. His rhetoric would be poison for latino voters, but in two thousand sixteen trumpeted, no worse than Mitt Romney with that group and possibly better depending on the data you woke up and in twenty twenty Trump moved on his twenty sixteen margin, with virtually no voters by size percentage points according to the obstacles, now Joe Biden, one much you know, voters on the whole and easily sixty five percent to thirty two percent, but as people who watch elections. No, trends and margins matter well trump. Why

the twenty six sixteen election, his erosion of support amongst college educated white voters, was a harbinger of what was to come for Republicans in two thousand eighteen and twenty twenty also examples of these kinds of ships be one off. That's like when George double gosh made big gains, would Latinos in two thousand, for only to have very much reversed by Obama. In two thousand, the weather Publican gains. A month's latino voters become a trend or a singular event will depend. The underlying reasons for these shifts and what the parties do about them. And that's what we're gonna talk about today. The political research for an egg is research which focuses on Letty. No political engagement recently published a post mortem looking at how the Le Tino vote changed in twenty twenty and some of the possible reasons why the co founders of ECHO's research are here with me to discuss it. Seventy Valencia is the press of egg, is welcome to the show. Thank you so much for having us and careless, oh dear, is the senior vice president. Welcome back heartless, download things round suit.

Begin. I mentioned that the exit polls show trumps margin amongst latino voters improved by five points, but exit polls have shortcomings and limitations, especially during the pandemic. There are even more complex, so it's important to look at other sources of data to fully understand the picture of twenty twenty, which is exactly what you did. So what did you find and how accurate word, those exit polls yet. Let me just start by saying that you're right, you know a lot of initial reactions coming out of election day election night. For us, it was an election site of weeks, really are formed by the exit polls, which are Thirdly, not very accurate, especially as you try to pull sub groups of latino. Voters are really try to understand movement of the sub segments of Let me know Lecter or even harder to understand and to utilise and so part of the

tat we ve done your Carlos in our research team, have really been in a research caves and the election of judging by his here, you can see in this post. Mortem is really the first in and what what least be a trilogy of DE briefs that we will do on the left. You no vote and what were you can put it out? We just really scratch the surface. First as to what we thought might be some of the reasons why we really tackle in the post mortem. As is what happened. What was this movement trump? Where did it happen? What some group did. It was more or less pronounced, and why and turning to get into those hypotheses you're. On each side, examples as Stephanie Hoses is deeply triggering to me, especially in the twenty context. For the reason you say Ireland, like biologists, we do not use the exits for latino estimates. A people cast was better but like no trump did not win. Latinos North Carolina for ample. So they want things. We were careful not say this. The precise level of support in a given state we're looking at shifts,

example, if you like the american election, you Paul, I think some of their estimates were little high, but because they pull every election you can the shifts between that between some other good analysis. I've seen that's a combination of precinct data with pulling you have an estimate that around and eight to nine point dip in democratic two way support from twenty six to twenty twenty. If you wanna talk in terms of regions. That means you're. Looking at about one eighteen point: more shift nationally. Obviously that differs by state, so the lowest shift as in Maricopa County Arizona. You see now. Existent shift in a place like Georgia and the highest which we ve all talked about. A lot now is a flawed and sell taxes, but also maybe parts of New Jersey. It just different in a place like New Jersey, because you're talking about going from, Clinton at ninety percent to bite Eighty percent of these are still astronauts.

Quickly, one would almost say unsustainably high levels of democratic support show. It seems, like the exit polls underestimated, how much latina voters shifted towards Trump. In that way, Twenty a watch, and it depends on what you are looking at and it differs by state. I mean just so unreliable that, especially if you then try to extend two saying it was caused by this sub group movement or that supper movement is word, gets very see what we have tried to do in our postmortem say: let's go back and look at what we can try to kneel down now, which is who did shift and how big a shift was that from what we can tell from insightful polling and Happy Say the limitations of that at all, imperfect because it then speaks to What what were we missing in the polling was the pulling accurately capturing these trends, but

least it starts to give us a better sense, a more data based sent empirical sense of who actually was holding back from Trump and then ended up closer to tromp by the end of this election year and one of the things you include in your post mortem, which we ve talked about on this package before is probably the best way of going about figuring out where voting ships happen, is looking at precinct level data. Basically looking at these things, where a lot of latina voters live and seeing how those chow judges evolved from two thousand. Sixteen twenty twenty listeners are also do starts talking about how latino voters are not a monolith, they have never voted as a block is a variety of factors that shape how they vote. Were these trends isolated to one particular segment of latino voters, or was it just kind of across the board? It was definitely across the board, and I think there were places where we had been tracking deep and tight,

sentiment, for example, among women throughout the cycle, and women shifted on election day for Trump in and then over the course of the cycle? Again we saw this the college and divide that existed, among the have general Lecter it hadn't been, is pronounced that he knows until some of the post election work. That was done mission. The precinct level analysis that cars in the team had really been done to dig in to see whether these movement, ships around some groups have happened. I think it also be really interesting, for us as we go into the next phase of our research, which is really going in state by state specifically into Florida and Texas, which have been much talked about to do additional, pulling quantitative point and qualitative work there, really understand one? What happened but then though the, why and really began to play, Sykes out taxes to understand what words reasons homage to immigration play into that movement. How much of it was driven by the economy? How much of it was driven by social,

media how much of it was driven by engagement or lack of engagement from different campaign in and then some early suffered as a whole other beasts, and I think that what we can see in the big take away. If there is one top line take away- and I know that listeners too- by thirty, eight podcast are more sophisticated and understand that there is a lot in new wants to this electorate. But there is one toppling take away from this election. Is that Latinos proved what we have been saying for a very long time, which, as they are a monolith and not just state to state but there's a ideological diversity that really showed up in the selection that we have to really better understand, for which I thank both. Denmark The Republicans have the opportunity to make inroads with this community if they make a concerted effort at you're. Not a monolith, I think, is that when a mantra, I think we ve added a corollary here post election, which is not a monolith, but still a group which is to say its own identity. There is still a group latino idea

and actually what twenty twenty showed was that, in fact, there was Yes, they seem to be unique. To people's identify, it is latino that cuts across geography and place of origin geography and place of origin being what people usually to when they say Latinos ornamental. They won't talk about Cubans as being different, not our border regions being different. You talk about floor being different, then the southwest and here. You saw a baseline shift that seems to cut across those categories and speaks to the way in which its heels aren't a monolith, not necessarily just by by those variables, but in terms of ideological diversity. I mean this is not rocket science in many ways like any group within the electorate, does not have monolithic views, interesting to understand the ways in which? Yes, these are human beings with a wide set views and attitudes, and yes, are very conservative Latinos the more enter in question you start getting into then is: why did some can

Nevertheless, he knows not previously support, Donald Trump or other Republicans. Yeah, I mean do you have an idea as to why that's the case when I log into the good stuff and It is clear that in when we talk about the wise of this shift, what we have tried to contribute is how to think the reasons why, to some extent, because part of what twenty two challenge was on these old facile assumptions. We shouldn't, in our haste, to get answers jump to creating new facile assumptions, but wary star is this question on conservative because I think we're hearing a lot of discourse run well. What made latino conservative Latinos shift or Tom Trump when the real question is what had held them back before, why weren't concerted Latinos, in others great research, as concerns the black vote on this great book, steadfast Democrats that talks about the ways in which a ray Whole identity outweigh These other ideological concerns I think there a similar thing, I play the Tino that there was a sense

of latino identity that was holding people back. I think we can start to hypothesized we have data that speaks to. This is the extent to which, when Donald Trump was down the escalator at twenty. Sixteen from the moment, he start. Making the remarks you mentioned. There was a idea established immediately, disguising anti latino he's anti immigrant and his annual Tino and the although more complicated we get into it, but the ways in which immigrants, it interacts with identity. I think people are quick to look at. It is just set of policies and well Latinos summertime agree with building the wall and some Latinos, don't like sanctuary saves whenever it is in our midst The larger point that immigration is an easy. Rush old way to differentiate between two parties and understand this. Guy is with me, and this guy is not, twenty? Sixteen? That was frightened centre in a way that we would argue it was not front and centre in twenty. Twenty

Christian is like a gateway drug for latino voters. It's like it's really trying to understand whether they're with us or what whether they're against Us- and I just I think, that's because two thousand and sixteen was so and two thousand and eighteen was so focused just central part of the campaign when all of a sudden it wasn't. You saw something different happen in twenty twenty and when you try to understand the ways that covered in the economy and the economic shut down impacted, which he knows and latino voters and let you know Lecter, perhaps more, uniquely Gmos are tackling some of the largest entrepreneurship and small business growth in this country, so they were uniquely had a small business owners, essential work, and being frontline workers, you know and being exposed to the health impacts and covered in the pandemic in a unique way. Saving. There is also an interesting way to think about the way that the combination of where, at this moment in time,

that we were in right now that very uniquely in acutely affected. This community could have also shown up in a more pronounced way as well. I want to develop it further into the question of immigration. How much do you know? Voters care about immigration in comparison, with non latino voters, because I think it seems to be the assumption amongst Democrats that this is perhaps the highest priority issue exactly sure why you know: there's lots of non latino voter in America, who are the descendants of immigrants who would support restrictive immigration policy by what's that interplay there, like is not about assumption on the part of democratic. Serbian Dixon, who was a great his bank, Pulsar used to say people must understand, is established. When an immigration does not come up number one? When you ask what's your top priority or top issue right now, but that it is a threshold question in the way that, if you think of a cuban voter they're, not

answer the Cuba policy as their number one issue. But if you proceeded be wrong on Cuba, then you're disqualified from the go if Europe certain seconds of jewish voter in Florida answer. Israel is our top priority, but if you perceive that someone is anti Israel, you're not gonna vote for them. And so it understands the threshold matter in that way. Its identity question that immigration, even for a vote looks like a puerto rican voter, for whom it is not immediately applicable because poor regions don't have immigration issues in the same way one there communities where it is an issue and to that they perceive that when certain kinds of candidates are talking about immigration there now narrowly just talking about a category of undocumented immigrants based on paper work. There more broadly about Hispanics and about it. If you can real change in this country and that something that looking voters have been very keen on.

Now were the first to say. You should not only talk to latino voters, but immigration over learning that lesson and saying what then, let's not talk about it at all, is also a mistake. Immigration can be a differentiating issue between Democratic Republic, and I think the wrong less than a shrink away from all this is only toxicity knows about the economy or don't talk about immigration at all when Cross is right, immigration is always in the back of many latino voters minds and is seen as this gateway threshold issue to try to him stand whether or not a particular candidate sees Latinos. As I'm not positive, that negative to society, and so I think there are water lessons to take away from this elector. But I think one of the things you want to impress is that not talking about immigration isn't necessarily the answer either, and they were about to go into the field on an immigration pole here and the next week, or so. Among

Tina? Voters I mean. Obviously a lot has shifted and changed in the landscape that we want a better understand around where the tune of utter sentiment is today. I want to go back to your previous. Went about how well it means are not a model. Is there a group that you saw these trends across the board across different geographic areas across generation or country of origin? etc, etc, but when we try to kneel down on what will key indicators of the voters who work either shift their preference or turn out when they had previously who were the voters that seem most attractive to Trump. Who had previously been great question. I think we said at the beginning, our major takeaway- being that a segment of latino vote is swinging than commonly assumed. There's a stereotype of the classic suing voter that pictures white. So urban, so Trump loses Latino, go badly by two to one margin, but

makes gains by appealing to latino. Voters were usually on the sidelines of politics, they are swing. Voters, they looked like true swing. Voters, you say folks Ripley, My goodness, this really is a swing voter, I've, actually side of observers and thought screen poorly for this group, because these sound like Democrats, but then, when you are, thousands of Europe when they vote for Trump and what are the characteristics we saw The men still are more pro trump than the women for sure, but that these high levels of Anti Trump sentiment that we had seen among Latinos in twenty nineteen kind of key back down to earth. Little bit as were mentioned, ideology is a big indicator here, the biggest if I were among conservative Latinos people here concerned These days and think it just means republican among Letty in particular, as it is among novelty. No black voters, that's not the case. Actually, biggest shift was among conservative independence. And you saw ships shifted motivation among conservative Democrats, so consorted independence. Seemed held back and then move toward it,

towards the end we found to be one of the most interesting is not so. Identity. But in category which is a lower propensity voter. If you look at people who are lower frequency, Who per modeling or less lively, devote there's a couple something that those voters are going to be as democratic or likely more democratic than those more regular voters and what we saw in cycle is those lower pensively. Voters start to shift toward Trump. And so this was a rare situation where increase turn out accrue to the benefit of the republic. I think a lot of assumptions have been made about the tuna voters. If you turn out and let you know, voter who's been on the sidelines and non voter that you're gonna turn out a Democrat for somebody will vote. Democrats may think what we saw the cycle and comparing modeling town,

Voters were modeled by democratic and progressive modelling and how it ultimately pan out there was a big gap in a big ship between those two, those who we assumed. Who Democrats, you might think that, like, ultimately, we will turn up

democratic by reaching this voter and ultimately, they were more of a Swinger persuasion, voter and needed to be communicated to well before two weeks before the election and were being potentially reach out to buy Republicans and conservative campaigns. I've got a really interesting point that you bring up in your postmortem because, especially after two thousand sixteen, the thinking was, while high turnout in the upper Midwest might be bad for Democrats, because a lot of low propensity or non voters, there are non my college educated people who would be more drawn to Trump, but that when you look at states like Arizona Metaxas more Florida, that high turnout would actually help Democrats because there are large numbers of Latinos through our love, propensity voters or just haven't voted previously. This flies in the face of that, and so does this change. How democratic should be. King about slipping a state like taxes or gaining ground in a state like Florida and that just increasing turn out is not the answer like they actually have to persuade voters on the issues,

by five, thirty, eight and other verging on a cone in your terms, as others have done. Gray analysis of like this non voter question and the conclusion Let me now turn out would automatically be better for Democrats, What happens? Is you have latino voters who are treated as a target for registration and then mobilization, but there they say and between that education and information, a k, persuasion that seems to be missing this is to say there are still incredible potential and for Democrats really sky, potential among Latinos who are still on the sidelines of this process it is still more efficient to try to get these voters. Than to try to swing a certain kind of suburban way. But it's more. Fordable, really gonna. Think in these terms, wise at affordable of what sufficient right, like the cost per vote, trying to flip a suburban. Why voter is much higher than that of

to get a latino non voter into the process, but you can't be too cheap and just assume that it's all registration game, whether does to be some sort of follow up and engagement. I think that's the lesson you can't treat Latinos like these democratic robots are you, gotta do is plug the batteries ended and they're gonna in lockstep turnout for the democratic vote. There is engagement necessary two weeks before the election. Anything. What I hope to see is that over the course the next year. Two years, ten years you mean this really is a challenge and an opportunity for both democratic Democrats over the course of the next decade. Latinos are driving, population growth, their driving, a good part of their share of the electorate, and Denmark If there are serious about it, should really be approaching an understanding of the electorate. In essence, Our way with curiosity and investment, as they have white swing voters

has ultimately, I think, there's not much to learn and understand about this part of the electorate and want to dig into a little more of the wye behind these shifts, but first today's cast is brought you by another five. Thirty, eight podcast hot, take down each Tuesday check out five. Thirty, eight sports podcast hot, take down where the hot takes up the sports world meet the numbers that proved them right or terrorism. The crew digs into fiery opinions from the week in sports and measures them according to the analytics behind the issue. They end each week show by having into a rabbit hole of data. From the strangest fifty point games in the NBA to the ever larger gullies of the end, a l don't mess hot takedown available every Tuesday, wherever you find your pot casts. Today's plot cast is brought to you by the pie cast series in planes Lady Bird Johnson, the sixties war, tumultuous time in the United States.

And I'm war, the fight for civil rights, the ascent the nation of three prominent leaders through it all one woman who had a front row, seat history and left us her experience in a collection of audio diary, that woman is Ladybird Johnson, the former. Firstly, and wise of President Lyndon be Johnson. Leaderboard Johnson were quartered her thoughts, from November nineteen sixty three to the beginning of nineteen sixty nine, it started with J F K, assassination, spanned the Vietnam WAR and the fight civil rights and ended with the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr and Robert Kennedy find out herself. The story on in plain sight, Ladybird, John, available now on Apple podcast Spotify and your favorite podcast app, as you mentioned at the start, this

the beginning of a lot of research that you plan on doing in terms of the tea no voters in twenty twenty in going forward and Sir, you offer hypotheses as to why we saw these shifts but not definitive answers, and we talk a little bit about covered. We talk a little bit about immigration and deep. Missing in salience in twenty twenty potentially, but you you offer many hypotheses. You mentioned like half dozen or a dozen waters of the other ideas that you have four why these ships could have happened? Yes, report we did after the election was talk to focus on the ground. In these key stage we talked academics. We looked at all the great reporting, those out there and we ll that the data as well and what we're looking at seeing our polling and thenardier was a set of credible hypothesis understanding that no one theory was gonna, have full explanatory power is probably multiple working together, but the same time- and this is my favorite post election active- which is people get on, the phone say well definitely this list of twenty five pet obsessed

that I have the movie looking about right. It's like it's, not twenty. Five things You are going to hypothesized that it is something like say so was checks you had to than also explain why that's unique to latina voters, because what everybody got a stimulus check. So what is it the theory of why, then it would have moved a little voter in a way that of other people, so honor, as you can imagine this shifting a salient immigration and latino identity stuff. You talked about the covert era economy. People scared of abiding shut down. Now there are other theories along lines of the Trump campaign itself. The Trump camping ran a very aggressive, Outreach to your voters summit was the most aggressive outreach latina vote that was seen in the modern era Bush gets reputation for hours Latinos, but you can have social media soda trouble really able to exploit the Hispanics for Tromp and Latinos for Trump work that he was doing online. That

really. A message of invitation right, like first kind of latino voter who wasn't used to getting an appeal from Republicans care was like an out now appeal talking all the times. I hispanic voters and a more vocal trump latino voter that there was a permission structure that was created having a very vocal latino for tromp in a way that you didn't happen in TWAIN. Sixteen, but remember, don't jump we try to get the looking over twenty. Sixteen have ass, doesn't even cut it. It was zero ass and this time around You actually get to see the kind of dividends to get paid off when actually to competitive rates. I think Republic is in full I have for a while demonstrated how that is possible and when the trunk campaign and other targets for Latinos were Trump war, reaching until eighteen o voters. What was the message that they would delivering to them? what of it was on the economy and a lot of it was focused on I mean I think, one of the things that people fail to recognise or don't want to.

Recognize our meeting flies in the face of trying to understand again why this is shift or trump is your Trump outside of George W Bush, who probably made the last real attempt at reaching the latino vote in a more store a way. Donald Trump had social media at his disposal. He had a campaign who understood how to reach Latinos using digital and handed digital army and lots of resources to reach that he knows. You know, I think one of the things you point out in our side. Deck is how Donald Trump was one using you too, to reach setting of others on election day had bought the mast head of you too, with what he must be thou. Who was it you see fighter or Mme Fighter Hispanic and now for a general audience in. That was a messenger that trigger you had been using in that other folks had been using to reach the Tina voters. So, economy. You know in particular was something that they knew they could go and talk to. Let you know, voters about you saw in places like South Florida.

Listen to the messaging on the economy and socialism that you saw this conservative media ecosystem. That agent stops since the twenty. Sixteen in reaching latino voters with a drip, drip drip of inspiration- and that was all part of this while connected set of influencers and radio and television along with the steady drip of information and disinformation and misinformation around socialism, is Joe Biden. So you have places like him in South Florida, where that kind of approach really at probably help to accelerate or could have help to accelerate. What and among the team of others, and specifically among cuban Americans and non cuban non puerto rican voters- and that was in addition to just kind of a steady trip of messaging on the economy that they were doing everywhere yards

the immediate aftermath? Analysis of twenty twenty was very much like ok. Well, it was the socialism appeal to Cubans are Venezuelans. That was really the deciding factor. What you do in this post mortem. Is you make it very clear that these ships were not specific to Cubans or Venezuelans in particular, and you kind of break out some of the different groups of Cubans Potter, weekends people that American to say? whether divisions along those lines- and you mentioned socialism- and I will say socialism was a factor in the way I think we have to back to what Republicans really mean when they do socialism attack, which is not just an economic world view it something much broader that really tries to position itself is counter to the american dream and it brings in other cultural and racial dimensions to so what to say. Socialism is undoubtedly a factor I think teasing out requires further research, but your question Cubans obviously shifted back to tromp right. They returned the kind.

Levels that we had seen pre Obama, but I was even more under performance in South Florida among what we call the lambs, which is non cuban non puerto rican hispanic and what we mean spanish melons, actually the biggest there are Colombians mixing America's in Nicaragua, Then you have a swell engineer, Peruvians and others, and if only been Venezuelans. You would. I have seen the kind of margin difference in Miami date because likely he broke in with Colombia, Nicaraguans that he was able to see that and of wild swing unwisely swing. I mean Clinton, getting about seventy percent in, he's let em precincts to Joe Biden getting around fifty percent in the same precincts, that's a wild swing, but there are other factors there that were built on top of this baseline shifty sees nationally that speak specifically to the ecosystem Miami the amount of attention that Trump was spending in Miami and

is accelerated, concerns about things like the left because of Sperience in Latin America, the Donald Trump was explicitly tying to this car moment. You said: there's more to unpack the socialism appeal and that it gets out perceptions of the american dream. Can you talk a little bit more about that? How was the fear of It was on playing into this election, the other socialism peace. I think the one the people focus on first is thinking in latin american policy, like the concern that venezuelan style policies. We brought United States, that's like one set of fear and likely moved Venezuelans heavily influenced in the mindset of Cubans, but there's a piece socialism that was pushed more broadly. That goes sailing. Hence the idea of poor suffered by the bootstraps. There is a strand among Latinos. It really is really body into the american dream. I mean some voters are, like Lastra, believers in the protestant work Ethic general

speaking: seventy often about like the Trump intrigue of him as a business man that appeals to certain kind, younger latino man, as it does two other young men, the Elon Musk vision, and you can make it country self, made business man and talking about social issues as being the counter that socialism, being things are done, be given away for free Socialism is some cultural economic elites, telling you how you spend your money telling you what books you can read! You watch tv shows you should watch where you can say on social media That's how socialism becomes broader than just nationalization of private property then gets tight in two arguments around cancel culture or political correctness or even black lives matter. Pros talked about. It is more as antithesis of socialism, which is like this role of capitalism in and making it in this country and opportunity to be a self made person and again because

as Latinos really represent the psych small business entrepreneurial eat, those so many Sheila Tienanmen, twenty five to fifty five relieved. Donald Trump, as this self made up by your bootstraps, successful business man that they aspire to be not to mention the fact that some people think relieves the entreaty trump to machismo in it? I think it is actually less driven by gender. Were, but is more like is called a personality, and this is actually something we ve seen and have come started. A province and focus groups given young Trump has signalled he might run in trade. Four! Is there any other republican candidate who represents the same set of ideals there? Or is this really something that's unique to Trump and will we These found in some of the initial we focus group proving that we ve done, is that same pen of appeal does just naturally transfer to somebody like same worker Rubio, says really is

something that you was related to Trump in arab ility, to kind of see him as like a somebody who challenges. We like the anti politician who challenges conventional wisdom and challenges. The way things have been done. Pre see and has been successful in a way that many little nose, especially the genome, men who are small business owners, aspire to be as buyer to be successful. There was a story right before them action about a latino, small business owner and Scranton Pennsylvania. You said the art The deal was his Bible and in all of the work that trunk did to build. His businesses was like what he wanted to follow because he wanted to become and leave behind for his family. It was successful business empire, and this was a small business, restaurant business owner and Scranton Pennsylvania, chicken

see how there is this kind of relation were as aspiration to what Trump represents. That, I think is very unique to him will contain an approach and to look into that and see how this both of the personality, narrative, an attraction, differentiates from say, policy, unlike the economy, is something that will have to keep again to over the course of the next year to show, I think boy, you're saying is very: you need to download trunk this idea that he's a successful business man. You know, I just trust him because he's hats, as for businesses, of course, you can and many people have debated the veracity of those ideas, but there is something that is also more fundamental to the two parties at this point, which is the use of culture and gender and race, and things like that there are not necessarily Unita Donald Trump. Maybe he made them more pronounced in the way that he campaign blight play into a decades long trend of college, educated voters, for example, trending towards Democrats, Non College, educated voters trending towards Europe.

Weekends that underlying dynamic. Do you see that as Greece, to believe that there may be even more shift towards Republicans amongst latino voters, because of course, this point Republicans are not even winning the majority of Non college educated? Let you know what was in the way that they're winning Non College educated white voters I'm going to get it. It's. An entire section of conversation with this were entering into the qualitative slash wild speculation. Part of things There's a reason: a lot of this is not in the final postmortem Dac, because we're still gathering additional data behind there's an and we try to have a high set, a high burden of young- and I should say both of you are more than welcome to come back on the show. Once you ve conducted more research, I would love to hear what else you find. Yes, who knows we will find that is it They call it the fun of doing Research in this moment. So to your question, I do want to say some as we can. We're complicate this matter. I think with tromp. There was an appeal that, if you see, LE fire was outsider and business man. He was appealed

what kind of voter who does not have a fully formed partisan identity who is not paying attention to all policy debates? There is an appeal. Daddy, is mirrored in Bernie Sanders appeal during the primary is on the same voter, but its can kind of voter. There was a very simple pure Bernie Sanders outsider shaking things up? Who is to fight on your side for free healthcare, free college, whatever is in there similar appeal either Trump has your point of whether that's revocable? Is this a trend is a one time occurrence we dont yet no. I think there is enough evidence that Republicans can explore Some of these same dynamics- Amene again Florida Republicans, have been doing it for awhile Rick's got is in so many ways a Donald Trump Prototype down to the fact that they have the same pollster coincidence and Rick Scott as zero, charisma and ex zero political confidence, though, had this image among

the voters as being an outsider in a business man, and he was signalling that he cared through things like, for example, gonna put regal seven times during his last campaign. I do when I say like we get caught up sometimes in these policy debates- and I think the broader question of does this care about someone like me and then how is that candidate? Defining who? The me is like what identity or there a tap into is the broader question at the moment and one that is revocable for Republicans, not all Republicans like mentioned. Margo reveals trying very hard, but that trying pro We actually blows up in his face because yours will tell you in groups, he sounds like another politician I wanted to get to this point. A new approach to set about the similarities, indifference, between Trump and Bernie Sanders, because I do think that something that, as we can have an early kind of thinking about moving into the next cycle, makes may had hurt but, like

I think there were things that Bernie really tapped into ability nor Lecter in the primary that I think are worth again to more witches this notion around three community college and like education, health care and when you look like, shoes that really matter till it he knows what's affecting their day to day lives as the general Lecter, but in particular again that are acutely impacting. Let you know, voters one is education. A disproportionate number of wealthy knows do not go to for her institutions, they're getting associates degrees, another certifications from community colleges and completing necessarily Highschool too, as you also have one of the highest uninsured populations? Pre Asia was Latinos and so access to free quality, healthcare is something that is always going to be driving their thinking and that their top needs and off that's one thing, and when we look, What are some of lake burmese top policy priority Is that really reached in touch latino voters and really kind of engage them? It was free community college, healthcare and immigration and, as we can move forward,

think keeping that in mind, as it relates to your dad just talk about the economy- broadly till eighteen of others, but also talking very specifically about small businesses and the opportunity of small business and entrepreneurship, and then again, these other pieces around education and health care. So it does take a more holistic approach to thinking about what does matter to. Let you know voter how there are living their everyday lives and surviving. Then it is just simply about the candidate. Their personality and whether there are seen as a typical politician or somebody who's challenging the status quo. I think it's a both and yet and to that end of course, Democrats did very well with latino voters in Maricopa County, but innovators are a significant part of why Democrats were able to flip Arizona. You also mentioned that we didn't see some of these shift towards Trump in Georgia, amongst latino voters in the places where we didn't see these shifts. What's the word

there is something that Democrats did right. Why didn't they see these losses in America, county or parts of Georgia yet looks like Amerika, because if you go down to present level and use our comparing vote totals coming Dosage Donald Trump get in TWAIN twenty compared to twenty? Sixteen you do, bang for Joe Biden compared to Clinton, it gives you a sense of the increased turn out everywhere and the extent to which this increased are not helped tromp, because you have a surgeon, trump votes everywhere anywhere. You look, there's a huge certain troubled but what happens? America is you have this urgent from and then you have a surge in democratic votes, the kind of rises up to meet it, and so you had clearly effective mobilization effort and I think you can credit the organizing infrastructure- that's been built up there, you can credit the camping spending in the amount of attention that was pay there

you can look at the use of the electorate. I think there's a variety of factors, but there is an example where Democrats were able to combat this trumps. Aren't you can always control the porter from Does, but what you can't allow as Democrats is an asymmetrical advantage. We take disinformation what's really happening is one sided propaganda through hello circuits that democratic accessing and are not competing in, It's a one, sided peace, that's really dangerous. I think you have Arizona. Was you had an all out war and grew like Lou China, Arizona like Arizona winds were showing up and turning out there are people and worry thus to see a minimal trump gain, their relative to use on other places, yeah just wrapping.

Here. You know you ve talked a lot about how the two parties are engaging, Letty, no voters. If you had to give Democrats and Republicans both a message about how to engage on China, voters going into the future, what would it be aiming for me and my home with Democrats at this point in time is that they approach understanding the latino. Voter and let you know, voters with the same level of curiosity investment that they have white stream voters. It's worth investment as cross pointed out the costs promoting the efficiency and longer term is a good pay off if they spend the time to do it. But if they continue to do things as usual all week, risk you know, and I think this is the big question of the post mortem is. Is this a moment in time and a unique set of circumstances that created this anomaly, or is this a longer term training that something only time will tell and don't think Democrats can risk taking that chance on them

look inside? They think you're, even starting to see some of this play into the current border? Dynamic is not overplaying their hand on immigration. I think if there is one lesson to learn when take away from YO again twenty sixteen to twenty twenty is that one thing that really affected latino voters and twenty six ten holding back from tromp was likely immigration, as we point out of his effected abroad, heard of the electorate and white swing voters as well, and that is it tight line in a tight wrote, but like be cautious that over your hand on immigration, there's a lot of operate The data continue to reach and engage latina voters on the economy, but ass to be done in a real and authentic way. And again, this notion of jumping the entire partition, Canada. You can't just come to latina voters with any candidate and expect to continue to make the gains that you made among the tuna voters and twenty twenty.

Just any Republican Canada and when I'd say too, especially democratic dont, be fighting the last war. Here we are talking about the last election, but This is a highly dynamic electorate, a majority of eligible Aquino's didn't choose Biden or Trump. They chose not to do so the big lesson. Here's to mind the margins right you look at Paul and you see looking up to sixty percent. The real movements on the margins is not being picked up in a sample of a hundred Latinos, and so I think one troubling Then you pick up a lot when you do this focus groups when you look at all of the pass literature on latino vote is the sense of a guest mentality. A lot Hispanics will say no matter how I've been this country if you like a guest here, I've got going somebody else's home, you're in somebody else's home. You don't sit down without permission, much less start to move around the furniture and so that a big chance and for our democracy to overcome that disconnect between voters who feel like that,

government and their parties in these campaigns, and so big part of this is. Fighting Latinos to the table- and that involves It is incredibly powerful, as we saw in TWAIN, twenty and theirs. Send that there are gains there to be had for both parties if they continue to help looking those feel nudges included, but courted empowered within their coalitions are well. Let's leave it there. Thank you, Stephanie, Carlos, Thank you. Thank you. Seventy Valencia and Carlos idea are the co founders of the political research firm, eddies research. My name is Galen droop Tony Chow, as in the virtual control room, clear, better, Gary Curtis is on audio editing, you'd get in touch by giving us at podcast at five thirty eight dot com you can also, of course, we did us with any questions or comments. If Europe out of the show, leave us a rating or review in the apple pie, historic or tells him about us thanks for listening and will cease