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taylor listeners, just a reminder before we begin today, we have alive, show coming up in new york city on April nineteenth, it's gonna be at seven thirty. The bell house in brooklyn and the place to get your tickets is five. Thirty, eight dot com slash live show. We ve got a little less than a month until the show and were already two thirds sold out. So if you ve been waiting to get your tickets, now is the time to go, get them because I don't know, I think we probably will sell out and we don't want you to miss out. So that's fine thirty eight dot com, slash live, show where you can get your tickets now hello and welcome to the five thirty politics claude cast am Galen drink all, have been on the manhattan district attorney's office this week to see if Donald trump will become the first former american president to be indicted, as we record on thursday morning,

Pierre is unlikely that any indictment will come this week and the reality is that, even if the grand jury were to indict the charges wouldn't be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. So We have to take this opportunity to talk about what we do and dont know about trumps legal jeopardy and the possible political impact. The instigation of an alleged hush money. Payment to stormy Daniels is one of at least for ongoing investigations that touch the former president. There are all so ongoing investigations in fulton county georgia over attempts to meddle with the results of the twenty twenty election and the department of justice is investigating both the treatment of classic, documents and the january sex attack on the capital, in fact the case in new york. That has the focus of so much attention. This week may well the least serious and even the weakest case against trump. So he would meet to talk about the details and applications. All of this, our senior politics reporter Amelia Thompson, devout welcomed and podcast thank each airline

and also with us, is senior elections. Analysts, Nathaniel, breakage, welcome to the pod peggy on area. I I'm doing pretty well. We fought at some point this week that this would be an emergency podcast reacting to an actual indictment. But it seems, like things have gotten tied up with regards to the grand jury in the manhattan. Deal office and so we're gonna, maybe take a broader look today at some of trumps legal jeopardy talk about where this all is in the process, but also some of the cases because I think the general consensus is that this may not even be the potentially damaging case for trump. But let's begin where the stormy Daniels Amelia. What do we know about where the case stands right now and why we ve sort have been in limbo this week, so manhattan prosecutors have been presenting the case to a grand jury since january and Dave's heard from a number of witnesses they ve heard from Michael Cohen several times. Of course he is one of the linchpin.

of what happened with stormy Daniels, which, for anyone who has not had a one if a trip down memory lay into the twenty six intellection in the past few days. A reminder that stormy Daniels had had an affair with trump Michael Cohen paid a guard traveller alleged. simply thank you get one we don't want to get sued here. I know we all want to get sued here, and that would be terrible. Anyway, Michael Cohen, paid off stormy daniels to keep her from talking about this alleged affair in the home stretch of the election and then trump reimbursed him and called it a legal expense and when, in fact that was a false recording of the expense- and this is a case that multiple prosecutors have looked into. Federal prosecutors have looked into it as well as well as the previous manhattan prosecutors. So this is something that is like pretty

well known pretty well trodden ground with the case has been presented to the grand jury and the signal that we had that things were probably wrapping up in the grand jury was probably getting close to voting on. The charges was. The trump himself was invited to testify earlier this month. He declined to testify, so he didn't appear but the grand jury, but that's usually a sign that things are wrapping up, inviting the target to common testify and then, of course, there is the fact that trump himself, last weekend said that he was about to be arrested on tuesday, which didn't happen, but that I think, is the reason that people really started freaking out about this and why folks, so sure that you know an indictment would actually result from prosecutors. Presenting the case to the grandeur well I mean, I think it's just because the prosecutors have clearly been spending a lot of time on this tape been putting a lot of focus and energy

into the case survive feels like. Why would the DA's office be putting so many of their resources into something where they didn't actually want to get an indictment and grandeur is usually vote to indict, in others, the old saying that a grand jury would indeed a ham sandwich which, like I don't know how I ham sandwich, would do in this particular case if it had been the one too, stormy daniels, but it is not a stretch to think that, if the and is office suspending this much time, putting forward a case to the grand jury that it would result in an indictment. and it is the case that a grand only needs a majority vote, not a unanimous vote. So it's easier to get guess it's easier to get to yes, and it's just about like this is just about the weather to charge someone. So it's not saying he's guilty. It's just saying: ok, let's move forward to the next step. If you can file charges against this person, so it's a pretty low bar. And when it comes to those potential charges. What is the legal theory that they have likely been presenting to the grand jury? This is interesting.

because we just are not going to know until the charges get unsealed. There has been some speculation. The deal office seems to be focusing on a new york law that prohibits the falsification of business. Records, which seems pretty straightforward. There was a record of this pay off and it was falsely recorded as illegal expense. The problem is that is a misdemeanor, and it can only become a felony if the records are falsified in service of another. So the question is: if they want to charge trump with affair me and not a misdemeanor. What is that other crime and It's possible. It was a new york state election law. It is not clear what that law would be, and its also possible that they might be saying that they were falsified in service of a federal campaign violation, but there

And there's a whole question about whether new york prosecutors can even to that, so it's kind of potentially novel and a few different directions? Assuming this is the direction the prosecutors are actually going to go in, and we don't know for sure at this point that they will. Yeah, so just for a little bit of context, the district attorney is bringing this case is alvin bragg, who is the manhattan district attorney, and so he obviously only has jurisdiction for state law he's a state prosecutor is not a federal process, it has other. Is this kind of interesting cross over We knew what is it Try to use a new york state election law campaign. In its law as the kind of underlying crime like does it apply because trumpets running for federal off, not for state office and so there's kind there is jumping over. You have to do at some point that seems like it could be a new. I could weaken the theory, but also maybe there's a lot, we don't know right. Amelia could be that there is hope.

a crime that that haven't bragged the day has uncovered that and we're all just speculating right read it makes is there some other thing where there was. This is like related to some other kind of fraud, and that's where he's going with it, but the elect My peace does seem like. If that's the avenue they're going down, I think it is safe to say at least that this is uncharted territory and when you combine that with the fact that we are also talking about uncharted territory with the first indictment of a former president, I think that does fairly raise the question of. Is this the case you really want to go after trump, for given the scope of his legal liability yeah I mean those agenda, we don't know what the potential charges but there are, as you mentioned, several weaknesses in this case that also in potential we potentially business, and we don't know yet. We really am, I really like firstly on the speculation we all real. Want to know what's going to happen, but we genuinely dont know we genuinely durno.

So far you know. Trump's legal team has made at least the argument in public that this was not in fact, a campaign, expense that this was just trying to to make sure that trump wasn't embarrassed in front of his family. That didn't actually have to do with the two thousand and sixteen campaign, which would then mean that this, even if they could prove that this is falsifying a business expense. It would still just be misdemeanor and that's a giant. You don't need a grand jury forward, and also I mean the other thing to remember here. That makes this case a little bit. Weird is at the start. witnesses. Michael Cohen, and my we'll Cohen, as someone who has perjured himself so he's? Really not gonna, be your ideal. Witness to hang a case on because he is someone where would you not, the defence can come in and say like this, guy is a liar, don't believe him. So then, it will be up to the prosecutors to make the argument that, while Michael Cohen has wide under both in the past he is not in this case, why

it's not. I mean that that's not an insurmountable hurdle, but it does add another layer of potential difficulty write you a couple of things will happen here. If the sort of speculated charges do come down, which is one that terms legal team will just try to get this thrown out and say the actual felony part of this would refer to a federal crime, and you don't have jurisdiction over federal crimes, so throw the case out. They were to actually get the case to go to trial. You know they were. They could make the argument that the second piece of Instead, it was you know in service of an elections. Crime is false because it wasn't actually didn't have to actually do with the campaign. You know there are also going to have to find an impartial jury, I don't know how it happened. Where do you find those people? new york who does yeah,

No, you know in the polls there's always though one percent who, as they don't have a theory of love and drive, I always wonder if, like English is those peoples, first language or if they're, just messing with the pulse stare at lake, yet it's. I think there is. There is definitely a lake EL strain of like one to two percent of people who just like kind of mindlessly click through my employer or something like that? Are there? Like? Purposely messing with things, so that is true from an perspective. I will say, though, I've I feel like they're, probably I mean it. incredibly hard to find them, but I think there are probably don't you think who are so glad apathetic egg that they gathered. They don't care- or maybe they have conflicting feelings about tromp, so they re array- and you know that I stand here the other, but it is maybe be, is an asset, have no opinion about trump. You know it only a question about whether you can render a fairer, judging

which I don't know it's just it's an interesting question with someone who, as the stature and political reputation of trump but were nowhere near air, what here's really getting into the politics. Now, if this there's an issue here because of course, the response from Republicans trump himself has been that this is politically motivated when you look at this case, and you see ok, if the expected legal theory is actually what they try to pursue, it's never been done before so a brazen has never been indicted. It's gonna be here some of the other cases seem like it would be easier to make the case that it's not politically motivated this case. It might seem difficult because past prosecutors have there's decided not to bring it up. The line theories seems complicated and like questionable so lake we're folks who say this seems politically motivated like what's the answer. Well, I mean I

This is always a challenge when you're talking about elected prosecutors, because they are political actors in a way that say, federal prosecutors are not, and so this is a choice that we made in our legal system to have someone like the manhattan d have a political affiliation, and you know choices about the cases to pursue. Based on affiliation. I mean we had this whole movement of progressive prosecutors who have run on the platform of. I am not going to charge certain crimes the way my predecessors did, or I will go after certain crimes in a way that might assessors didn't. So I think there is always an element of politics in what someone like the new york city d or the manhattan dossier is going to do, and people probably just don't usually think about that because were used to thinking about prosecutors as being a kind of neutral figure.

If you just go for the cases where they are right, you know it's also the case that prosecutors make decisions based on the cases they think they can win, and so you know if you went out and asked people on the street whether they thought the prosecutors should pursue charges in a particular case, the way that they think about it is going to be different than the strategic thinking of a prosecutor who wants to be really sure that when they get to trial, they are going to come out with the verdict that they want that being said, I do think this is one it's going to be a little bit easier for trump and republicans to make the argument that there are political motivations here. I mean I think people are already a lot of people are already there. I found a writers, ipsos pull. It was conducted earlier this week that found that most americans have heard

about the investigation. At eighty eight percent and fifty four percent say, the indictment of donald trump on criminal charges is politically motivated Oh you know at slightly more than half a lot of people are already there. It's just a bow. You know if they're going to pursue this case, they're gonna have to make a really robot case to the american people that this is a situation where it was justified to try to put a farmer present on trial, yeah nathaniel You have been looking at the pulling on how americans are thinking about the different investigations that touch former president trump do. We have any information about how this has like evolved in the time that this has become more prominent in the news because I seem conflicted pulling like a majority and that people say that its motivated but have also seen other polls that show, like you know, plurality saying that here I'd be charged if he did actually pay hush money. So

don't I it's hard for me to know what to think. I mean in this Paul. It's like eighty five percent Well, americans say that if Donald trump broke the law, he should stand trial. So clearly, the way this question is worded matters a lot, but be you should you should elaborate nathaniel yeah, our question crushing wording matters of israeli serious, with all the exact lucy. The support on on all sorts of subjects but I mean I don't think these ideas are necessarily contradictory right. You can think that is politically motivated, but so think that he can be charged or or convicted, but a year ago- and I think the poet you are referring to is from you govern the economist arm and that found that americans think trump should face. Criminal charges further hush money payments of forty six percent to thirty four percent. So So I think I think a lot of this is gonna come down along kind of More trump approval disapproval lie Ah, you have, in terms of an evolution, you have seen that at least recently

You seem more republicans kind of responding to like that. I think there are, I forget who who conducted his paw. I'm sorry too, to the poster for nuts. in you, but there was a place there, that a majority of Republicans thought that doing what trump did without naming tromp was illegal the idea of using the money to cover this up? I was, well, but but back in twenty thousand eighteen, that number was low kind of seems to reflect the fact that I can twenty eighteen when like this was like being talked about a lot people retreat into their partisan corners republicans knew this was a question about tromp, even if it weren't civically asking about trump, and so they said no, that's perfectly fine, but now in a kind of oda, this just kind of export or onto the scene right think of saturday that the trump claimed that he was going to be arrested, and so the polling that we have the most appalling that we have is from before that, or maybe the judges, penetrate, although I guess the writers upsets poor people have been hearing about it, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see the number of republicans who think that this is

a witch hunt, sir, think that the specific crime is not like actionable drop, down to where it was in two thousand and eighteen, when this was more in the in the kind of atmosphere yeah, then I think you're talking about actually also you gov economist poll that showed last week. Seventy three percent of Republican said the exchanging money for silence on an issue that could affect the election. Is a crime back, in august, two thousand and eighteen that number thirty seven percent, so it's like doubled. Basically since August two thousand eighteen, however, this week of the pole, went back out in the field and that number fell from the seventy three percent of republicans, who said that it's a crime last week to now sixty percent who say it's a crime this week. So that's Putting some specific numbers to what used suggested is seems to be the case and just to give the overall picture

seventy percent of americans. When you do, you know, put away the cross tabs for partisan shut. Seventy percent of americans say that paying hush money on an issue that could affect an election is crime. I wanted to but back for a second, we have suggested that it is significant that a former president could be charged for a crime can be indicted. How significant like? Why? What does that mean? Because it never happened before but like ok, were seven years into this. Permit trump new site and a lot of things have happened that didn't happen in american history during that time. So, ok, yes, its historic, but also what are the actual implications amy I am in elections analysed, so obviously I think you would affect the EU twenty four election trump is an active candidate for president. After all, end It seems this gonna be a thing

regardless of whether it actually hurts are helps him obviously like. I think this is a different story than if you had had brok obama. Who obviously is is analogy of all the running for president if he had been indicted. That would be obviously like well momentous, and there will be a lot of attention paid to it, but it would be kind of silent off from the current electoral path, such future that we're on right- and that's not the case here, which makes it particularly experts have potentially just to ask a specific question about elections. Some of the potential charges facing trump there's been a suggestion that, if actually convicted the person convicted of those crimes were not actually be able to hold public office federal office at least. Is that door. Understanding as well. Are those provisions debate a ball and also, I think we should ask just because I think the public is curious,

How does being under investigation or actually even being indicted, affecting your ability to run for office simon? I can take a piece about being barred from holding office in the future. So what we're talking about? There are different investigations into trump that are happening at the federal level under the auspices of the special council investigation and his kicked off last november. Continuing save investigations that had been happening under d o J and then a special count was appointed once trump announced that he was running for re election to handle those and so a couple of the. who is it? There is either within the law or with the constitution. Provision that suggests that it would bar, if convicted it would bar the person from holding office again in one of those cases it is not clear that part of the statute is constitutional and, in the other,

in the case of a two thirds vote of congress could overrule it and seems pretty unlikely in the current congress. But you know, and- and that case is that would have to do with if trump were charged and convicted of insurrection, which would have to do with his canon. with regard to the genuine sixth riot, and that would be a pretty difficult case to get him convicted on. So I think, while there is the possibility that he could be barred from holding federal office in the future, I wouldn't I say that is likely yeah and then just to address another question that I get a lot of the people often ask like: can trump still run for president from jail, assuming it gets to jail, which also seems pretty unlikely to me

but the answer is yes: we have had presidential candidates run from jail before eugene view. Debs the socialist kinda further maintained twenty. Shall we gotta go running right now? Tat I was gonna say that that is very minute. They can never get the tiger annual has to eugene v debs and the tiger king name a more iconic duo, but but now, but obviously the logistics of it would be challenging right, trump wouldn't be able to hold rallies. You know, and, and so it'd be a different type of campaign from what we have seen previously to, to put it mildly. But but legally, there is no no restriction on it, but Gail and I'm gonna go to the the broader question of how this will matter politically. I think that's, obviously a big question that a lot of people, including me, have I start out from a grip of great uncertainty. I think you know that own children buddy, who is a listener. Five, thirty, eight politics podcast because

We have never had a an ex president, a new and active presidential candidate indicted before we just don't have a good precedent for four. What's gonna happen, you can make the argument that it would hurt him. You can make the argument that would help him. You can make the argument that it would not matter, well, I guess those are all the arguments that So let me just save us then Nathaniel, which is that I think the most common take that I've heard is that it helps him in the primary and hurts him in the general. The idea being that viewing trump as a victim and the target of a politically motivated, judicial system like I'm, not saying it that's the case, but that that would be the view of republican pray, Voters would create some sort of rally effect for tromp, but then an actual general when you have independence of voting and people who are just less motivated by partisan instincts and loyalties to trump

that actually having somebody who is potentially under investigation for in four different cases is not actually attractive. We even if you might be inclined to be supported, trust policies so have I made you choose a take like? Would you accept that, convention wisdom, origin, more trying to propose- and I mean I think, I'd- expects scott sceptic. some of it. I think that the arguments for that are makes sense. I think we like primary, I that. It will hurt him and in the general I doubt that it will help him so in the sense that the opposite listener You'll find out is the opposite of that. It makes sense, but I would personally ten more toward the it won't matter. I think in both lake. Ok argument that it would help trump champion the primary right is that, like it's not dissimilar to rally round the flag effect where I think it that like people would like be like you know trump. Neither

portray now, but I think it would be more than his opponents would be put in a difficult position and if, if they felt that they did to defend him, or at least not attack him and kind of those silent on it. That kind of helps him in simply because it during a rally, rather fact flag fact, a lot of what happens is that political opposition go silent because it's kind of uncouth to attack the the president during a war or something like that, and I think that you could see that kind of thing happening here. also have the fact that, like republicans, like already overwhelmingly believe that that this is a politically motivated that this is a witch hunt, I think in the reuters ipsos pull that Amelia cited earlier at something like eighty per eighty per cent of republicans, think that the charges are politically motivated. Like me, I I could see it not really like moving the dial more generally, like I think people have made up their minds trump. You also have other poles, like from you, gov that found that most americans already think the donald trump committed a crime, and so I think people,

have baked in this idea that trump has committed a crime. If you are inclined you if you are a democratic, independent, that this is politically motivated witch hunt if you're a republican, and so it probably doesn't change your mind one way or the other for the general action. Though you had you do of the argument that, like we have studied empirically, that scandals hurt candidates there, he was a trump has already kind of deal. If, if you had been running an ark and for senate or something like that, he would get the stamp scandal tag in our data. He would have done that even twenty. Sixteen, like, if not clear, like what additional impact and indictment has also again. kind of the same way. Like you know, does this hurt like if he int into. I guess at this point, if he's not indicted after all, is reporting that would almost really like him exoneration but like This hadn't happens. You know, then sure would be any different from him. Getting indicted here. I think another wildcard though in this is something that was racing in the sack tat. We

on the site, the other day is that, like the there's just one case and its by this democratic prosecutor is easy, as Amelia said, took two painted as politically motivated. If trump gets indicted me out three four times like that star, it's to weigh on you and like. I think that is like it's already unprecedented for an ex president to be indicted. It'd be super duper unprecedented for an expert to be indicted four times and like that, nothing that, like I can't even for a lot all but a lot of current trumped supporters. Looking at that. Seeing how weighed down he would be by those new those trials and and allegations are you could see some people being like this isn't worth the drama, and we should move on and what you see, you also seen a lot of polls that trumped supporters dont and ron sanchez like trump, has been attacking santos, but, like general, speaking their both popular with with most republicans, and so

wouldn't be a huge stretch for them to be like trump. I love you, you how you know you're a great president, but at this point we need to go with the next guy in in the line yeah. I I agree with Nathaniel that I think a lot depends on happens next, including how strong this case turns out to be which you know again link we don't know what he would be charged for. Thinking about the impact it is kind of a stress test for our justice system as well. I mean we are not a country that has seen a lot of high profile trials of politicians period. When you know we ve been talking about comparisons for this, obviously not even former presidents, but governors members of congress there just Aren't that many cases to point to, and even think about this a couple of different ways. You know you can think about it as we are, we do live in a country

we, where we believe that no one is above the law and that if a former president breaks the law, that person should be held accountable, the same as everyone else, but also in other countries and in other contexts there have been parents about the legal system being used to go after people politically at an unfair prosecutions. For political reasons are a thing that have happened in other places at other times and Oh, but you know, I think that concern, while obviously your own political ben at this point is probably going to determine a lot about how you see this particular case. more broadly, we are seeing a test of our justice system to fairly try some one who most people do think has

probably committed illegal acts, but is also one of the most prominent well known. Controversial people in the country and an incredibly powerful political symbol, and so if that person goes on trial, I think it will have pretty serious ramifications potentially for the way that americans see the justice system as a whole and that's a big deal. There are at war, we've talked mostly about this manhattan da's case so far. So let's move on and talk about some of the other circumstances in which trump faces legal jeopardy. Today's podcast is brought to you by better help it so easy to get caught up in what everyone else needs from you and never take a moment to think about what you need from yourself? But when we say all of our time giving it can leave feeling stretched then and burned out therapies. have you the tools to find more balance in your life, so you can keep supporting. Others that leaving yourself behind its hopeful for learning positive

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be facing, so we still don't now why charges, if any, will come out of this case. The last big update happened in february when foreign county superior judge, robber, MC burn He ordered the parcel release of especial grand jury report in the case, and the grand jury had been convened basically to assist will ass, though they were not there to make charge him decisions that will be willis and her team at make the charging decisions with a different grand jury. But this grand jury was sort of their to kind of put together a report based on the testimony they heard about what they would recommend. The report revealed that they had recommended some indictments but not who they recommended be indicted indicted or for what and the four person of the jury went out and and made some kind. you mustn't media famously that's very famously when

and said things like you're not going to be shocked. It's not rocket science, which is deeply unhelpful to me, because I don't think I could be shocked by anything since in this case I don't know I'm curious what people would be shocked by. I dont know what she was thinking there, but now there's been some additional reporting that willis and her team are considering racketeering and conspiracy charges for people who were involved in this investigation. The grand jury report also said that they think at least one person light under oath soap.

Actually charges for that. Willis is well known in legal circles for aggressively pursuing racketeering cases, so it's very possible that that is an avenue she could go down. But the big unanswered question there is, even if we do see charges along those lines will trump be one of the people who is charged or will we be talking about lower level trump allies like rudy, giuliani and john eastman, and because, basically, it's sort of like you know how much of a king pin do the prosecutors think trump was how central was he to this effort to meddle with Biden's victory in georgia and- and we just don't know at this point- what they think they have the evidence to pursue charges for a show. I want to talk about. Maybe how the public is viewing these types of cases differently, but first, let's

talk a little bit about january six, because maybe the public will sort of lump in some ways. These two things together because they're both efforts to change the result of the two thousand and twenty election so on they are connected. Also in that trump was trying to. I mean part of the applications here is that they were trying to convene an alternate sat of electors from georgia. So it is, I mean it is all kind of connected, although obviously we're talking about violations of state law versus better. Wha right. So as far as the department of justice is concerned, in terms of pursuing an investigation of january sixth, a lot of people have been involved. A lot of people have been charged. A lot of people have been convicted. People who ended up in jail had to you know, pay fine. etc, etc. But where

it does. This all stand when it comes to trump himself. The big question is what kinds of ramifications, if any, will trump face: legal ramifications and people probably remember that the there was a house committee investigating all of this for eighteen months, that concluded it's investigation late last year and they had. Issued a report that had for criminal referrals for trump, which is basically them saying to the justice department, we think you should charge trump on these four counts. The justice department does not have to listen to congress. Congress does not have the power, to pursue criminal charges. So this is more the committee having done this,

work saying this is our spin on it and also we're going to give you all this evidence that we think supports these charges. Department of justice had separately been investigating, obviously the whole scope of the january sixth insurrection, as you mentioned Galen, but also trump's role in it, and that was happening before jack smith. The special counsel was appointed, but he was brought on board because basically, they wanted an additional layer of insulation once trump became an official presidential nominee, and so now this probe is in his hands along with another one that we can talk about It appears that moving quickly, he is she's been issuing. he knows to mike pants jared cushion or a trump by. You know folks who remember gallons and my friend chats about the last special council investigation will remember for for good or bad that

What if this is just a saying, we have no idea what they're doing over there. It's all secret you earlier that you expect it's unlikely that trembled be charged for insurrection Why is it unlikely and what our potential likelier charges there are a few potential charge is the congressional committee pointed to and that sort of legal experts have also waiting on whether trumped could be charged for is obstruction of an official preceding. This is something that has been used to charge. of the january sixth defendants and its currently that question about whether the charge was applied correctly is pending at the appellate level, but there is also a potential charge of conspiracy to defraud the united states, conspiracy to make a false statement and then insurrection,

at the insurrection peace, is that no one else has been charged with insurrection. So. That's a sign that prosecutors generally think this is a difficult case. To make. and generally I mean the committee thinks that trumps actions this standard, but I, think in general, the department of justice is gonna, be pretty careful about what they charge trump with. If anything and there Going to you know, really want to be able to to stick the landing, and I think insurrection, because it carries the potential of not being able to hold federal office in the future, is one that is it's a charge that particularly risky, and obviously you know, the deployment of justice is not limited by what congress suggested that at the congressional house committee. I should be clear. This is all democrats.

Public and watch out and this trading right. Yes, most republicans, not import yeah but like the department of justice, can can do what they want based on the evidence. So just because this house committee is saying this is what we do and some of us are vires, or this is what we think you should do, and some of us are wires go for it. That's not necessarily what we're gonna see are moving your visit a whole different can of worms to alleged hush money payments to a porn star. Do americans view it as such like do they do that? view the implications, the severity of trumps involvement, Obviously we don't know there will be any charges, but americans already know a lot about what trump did on january sixth, and have you know plenty of ever probably heard the phone call that he made to brad wrath and smarter, So what do americans think yeah, I'm in electoral or politically may not be that different. So

I mean well, it's all it all comes down to how you feel about trump right. So we've got a maris college, pbs paul within pr last summer. That said, this is like kind of the height of the january. Six investigation and americans said fifty percent to forty five percent. The trump should be charged with crimes. In relation to that, and then you have a quinnipiac poll poor from august shortly after the Mara lago raid by the fbi, and They asked whether they ve people, americans thought the trumps should be prosecuted on the handling of classified documents and American said fifty percent to forty one percent that yet you should. So you know you're, seeing a lot of these same numbers that we saw for four years when he was in office about like his approval rating as like around forty in his disapproval is like around like fifty fifty five when you parallel to the the

in that we cited earlier the you gov economist poll about this, the hush money payments. There were it's kind of a similar proportion was forty six percent to thirty four percent, but there were more undecideds. It is hard to know whether that is just kind of the methodology of the poll right. Some pollsters will push undecideds more than others, or whether that's because not as sure about this. The stormy in your case, but I think you know it's me the americans. Are gonna come down, as you know, if they are pre any predispose alike Donald. They are gonna, say no, don't don't charge him rather do, and if they are produced to dislike him, then they'll say yeah go for it. Yeah I mean I I sort of understand and a way how people's minds could be overloaded by all of this, and it could just become a dry like trumped during not like trump equation. You know, I think I haven't been following the details of a lot of the stuff. Until I was forced to the

week because we were going to talk about it. Is that sort of risk, because it feels like each one of these If I learned about it in my high school history class would be significant and would be, there would be like a chapter on it or whatever and be twenty years from now. That will be the case, but who knows right exactly it king you're, taking yourself out of the context of the current political environment. I think changes everything right like I think you, maybe you would see you know differences there when people you know if if people were looking back on this and they knew what happened- and you know, like I'm sure trump- will still be a polarizing figure in in twenty years. But do you know hindsight? You know I mean look george w bush opinions of him have have changed significantly in that was about twenty years ago, and he was very polarizing at the time back when we thought that's what polarization was but yeah, I think that that that is the fact that he is an active presidential. Car

and again like there are people who, like are currently like, have like trump twenty twenty four signs on their lawn like that is so important and, like you, you cannot divorce this from the politics and from your kind of partisan affiliation. Again. I think, I think, the federal and negotiations really matter, because, even though, if trump is charged with a federal crime, he will argue it is politically motivated. There has been a special council appointed. These are not prosecutors, who are elected by voters and I think in general federal crimes are considered to be more serious by some people. You know like that, Wednesday crimes are serious, don't violate either of them but being put on trial.

At federal level for some of the things that trump could be charged with I think there is a genuinely open question about how people would respond if trump were in a court room and there was a criminal preceding happening. I think that would be really different for people to absorb. Then something like the genuine six hearings which at this point, we're all really used to congressional hearings about tramp, I mean we went through two impeach ments. and there was the whole january six committee- and it's just you know, I think, like there is very much a sense of those being a political performance and they are a political performance and, and we never got to

wayne with the mahler investigation, while tromp was president where this got tested out. So I think it's very much an open question, but again you know it's a big police call risk for the department of justice to take because going after when you are like, ultimately, the person who is responsible for that charging decision is the person merrick ireland, who was appointed by president Joe Biden. and president Joe Biden has probably gonna be running for president again, so it it's all wrapped up in politics, and I think it was

oh it is it is. I genuinely do not know how much prosecutors would be able to make that proceedings seem non political to the point where it might change people's minds. I think it's possible in a way that something like the impeachment didn't but we just don't now, dear dear point, Amelia the one pool that I've seen that kind of goes against. What I said about things. Kind of breaking down along trump proved disapprove lines. Is that there's so paul about whether things are politically motivated. You would maybe expect that you know people would say roughly fifty forty that it is not, but in fact a majority of americans think is- and I would be curious, Those numbers for like a potential january, sixth or classified documents. You know indictment, I would expect

that they would probably be lower because of that making the fact that its like this, this your council but button, probably not a ton right and alike that I think that really what it comes down to is that we're talking about things at the margin right like. I do think that a majority of people will well there. this. All these cases will be formed by their partisan affiliation. There are probably There are definitely some people who are kind of willing to look at it on a case by case basis, and you know- and maybe that's like percent of people in the middle or something like that. But it's like wants it like poles and stuff, like it's hard to gain that level of precision. So let's me say for the sake of argument that there are four percent of people out there. Who, like genuinely would support. You know trump's in it, you know like being convicted on you know, for resets them think that that was completely the correct use of the law, whereas the manhattan nothing was is overreaching by Democrats or whatever, like you, can't uphold

it won't be able to tell us that that four percent exists, because that is going to be within like a margin of error, but a four per cent swing. And I don't think flock. A four percent swing in in a general election would obviously be huge, because actions are extremely tight. These days. I don't think there's much of anything that can swing into election by four percent. Once I myself, a single factor given up well arise. Things are, but let's say one percent in a in an electoral context. That's as it's. It can be significant, but it is really hard to measure. So we've mentioned it a couple of times, but before we begin to wrap up here. Amelia. Where do things stand, and the department of justice as investigation of trumps handling of classified documents.

yeah. So this is obviously what we've been talking about with the f b I raid on mara largo last summer, and they raided from his home in florida recovered a number of classified documents and prosecutors then argued in court filings that trump's lawyers had tried to conceal documents from investigators in a lead up. This part of the investigation is still very much ongoing. Special council jack Smith's subpoenaed, a bunch of morocco staff to testify in front of the grand jury. So you now the system thing we're an end they just this is actually big news. I'm a trump lawyer is going to be compelled to testify over claims of attorney client privilege. This just was announced by an appeals court, so

and that's a fairly big deal- and this is one of the ones where a charge trump could face- is concealment or destruction of official documents, and that does include a ban on holding federal office as part of the Statute but legal experts are not sure if that constitutional. So it's a pretty high stakes charge, but it's not sure it like you. Even if chart the trump were charged and convicted. It's I'm not sure if that part of it would end up. Sticking at the airport, terms, boy you're being compelled to testify right, is that, if trump tone, his lawyer to conceal those documents or to light of the department of justice or whatever, so I would either have to plead the fifth or be apparent about exactly what deliberations took place over how to handle those documents that the fbi,

eventually seized yeah. I mean what will have to see how it plays out, but by Mr Smith's team seems to think that tromp was very active in all of this and they want to talk to his lawyers about it. I didn't this. One is interesting politically. because Nathaniel noted this in our chat earlier this week, you know they're, a raid actually happened in thus like, I think we ve got, the closest to something like a criminal proceedings Last summer, when the f b, I went into marilla, go and came out with a bunch of classified documents, trumps, they were ability ratings We budged, and then there is the fact that there is another special council investigation into widens handling of classified documents from when he was vice president. We ve talked about this on the site, probably on the pike has to that like there are some pretty soon

the current differences, at least that we know of right now between these two cases, including how cooperative trump and biting were in identifying and returning the classified He mentioned that is legally really important, so it is totally plausible that, these investigations will end up having pretty different conclusions, but in terms of poles, Equivalent see trump can point and say: hey look. The other guy's been accused in this to lake, not such a big deal. So I think you know this is. This is an area where the department of justice seems to be going pretty hard against trump I'm not sure how much of an impact this a charge in This side of the federal investigation would make versus the january six side. While we ve covered a lot of ground, we ve come

to some probably familiar conclusions that americans are split we're how they think about trump. There is a majority, or at least a plurality that is sceptical or dissatisfied more immediately and a republican primary from still have a lot of support, but also, most importantly, things are uncertain. We don't know what will happen next, we don't know charges will actually come down, don't know how they will affect public opinion, so listeners- I that means you just have to keep listening. I know you're stuck with us, sorry guys, guys a regular arena get a successor to smaller top is like my hair, like several hairs, went gray you so that local we're trying to come up with a name before repress record on the podcast this morning, and we weren't really able to so listeners. If you have any thoughts, please when, as we follow these, you think

was theirs indictment, our so I know you guys can do better than that, but you sent us better ideas charges. Chatter, Leave us savers and myself. Business interests, work with that figure, Amelia Nathaniel, thanks Galen things go in, my name is Galen. Droop tony channel is under control and on video editing you get in touch by emailing us a podcast at five, thirty, eight dot com. You can also, of course, tweeted us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show. We was a rating or review in the apple podcast store or wherever you listen to your podcast, or you can tell someone about the show thanks for listening and we will. excuse