Thick markets, thin markets, and the triumph of attributes over compatibility.This episode is included in the Freakonomics #smartbinge podcast playlist at wnyc.org/smartbinge
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An original. Can you look back to when he met the one you loved him, remember exactly how it was peering through me. So brothers joined the army, Tom HOLLAND. I have this joys of some sometimes have already seen. Everything else can have I bear Sherry radar Just remember an apple tv plus for economics, radio sponsored by discover earning cash back on you, purchases is great but discover will do you one better at the end of your first you're discover will actually match all the cash back. You earned on your credit card birthrate, discover this- is all the cash vacuum in on your credit card. At the end of your first year, this this especially amazing because Discover is accepted at night. Nine percent of places in the? U s that take credit cards, learn more at discover
calm slash, yes, me. Twenty one Nilsen report limitations applying I had been only on ok, Cupid on an offer. A few years. That's alley read, and I just move to allay in august- and you know, got back on his way to meet people and get to know the city a little bit red is a comedy writer. She spent a lot of time, honour, ok, Cupid profile. Okcupid in case you dont know, is a dating website the profile, but she wrote wasn't really work got a lot of messages of hey. You seem nice, like
haven't. You know just nothing, nothing to do with my profile, and so I wondered if it does anyone care at all like. Are they just looking at a better picture? So I wanted to see if there was a lower limit to how awful a person could be before men with thought messaging, her on an online dating site. So this is when she got cresty. She wrote a fake vocation profile very, very so you set up a profile, and your name is what airing Carter fans and are you in fact, in our current events, I know, but I figured the woman as trying to create, probably constitutes Erin Carter's basic fan base. Why
Erin Carter, is the younger brother of a back three boy who had a brief and ill advised raft, career and there's just no substance there and music at all, and that was what I was trying to reflect in bearing her to talk about some of your favorite highlighted low lights of your pro For one thing I wanted to make clear is that she is not just a bad person. She wants to ruin your life, though, under the section I'm really good at the only thing she left is convincing. People in credited Ella will get the hell out, yet she really enjoy that great. Come on a typical Friday night. She is knocking the cup that of homeless people hands because she thinks it so funny to watch them. Try to pick it all up. Talks movement is about the six things you could never do without money. My car, my phone keeping America American, my family,
and my friends and Erin Carter. Take us a seven things: that's ok! What's what's keeping America American meant to signal to me? The worst person in the world is definitely racist, and so I needed that should be a part of her I didn't want it to be so obviously I wanted her to be plumb either we terrible, I didn't want it to be an obvious joke profile, and keeping America American to me is sort of code, for I dont like people who don't look like me: So you created a profile for a girl named Erin Carter's fan who likes to party and knock over homeless people, at least their cups and she's, a racist gold digging fake pregnant, getting twenty five year old wait girl. Had you do Hush Marin Card offended very well.
For twenty four hours. She got a hundred and fifty messages. I had the profile up for two or three weeks since you got close to a thousand men method, her she guy probably ten times the number of messages that my real profile got. So what you tribute that success too while airing Carter, friends, one redeeming quality, she is very good. Looking. I asked my friend Re Johnson, who is an Australian based model, an actress if I could read her face, but photos and she's very kindly said yes
and so Erin Carter fan is stunningly good, looking and so tell me about following up with some of these replies. Will, after so many messages started growing in the optimist than me, decided that these men had just in the pretty photo and had not read her profile. So my goal at that point became to convince them that she is just awful that she is the worst form and on earth. They asked what I was doing. I thought I was pretending to be a fourteen year old on Facebook. Like a bully, might the three friends I would threaten pull out there s a lot of guys. I could just I wrote gibberish just pounded on the keyboard for a minute and sunset, and the vast majority of them responded with that. Great. What are you doing on Friday and how many days did you have them out of their own Carter fan fishing? I actually believe it or not. Did not want to meet any leave. Many relate
yeah, so surprised alley. Actually I found that a deal breaker for me was messaging Aaron Carter. From w and my see this is free economics, radio, the pot cast that explores the hidden side of everything. Here's your host Stephen Governor, we're talking today about online dating alley. Reed wrote the fake Okcupid profile for a really good. Looking twenty five year old woman, who also happens to be a racist gold, digging fake pregnant, getting nightmare and
She got almost a thousand replies when men are deciding how to contact on dating sites, looks matter a great deal at Paul Boyer. He is a labour economists at Stanford. Just to give you one statistic that comes from the ok, Cupid Blog, and I am quoting here. A hot woman receives roughly four times the messages, an average looking woman gets and twenty five times as many as an ugly one, and then there's is interesting. Superstar fact, where the very hottest five per cent of men get twice as many a mail as men who are just below that who are mortal the tenth percentage among the ten percent time most attractive, but not among the very top five percent. Women are in general a little bit more attractive to lawyers, doctors, men and,
military and firefighters, which I always heard was the stereotype, but apparently it turns out to be at least a little bit true Paul lawyer. Usually rights pay, whereas with sexy titles, Lake fiscal year ends and non linear incentive contracts, the effect on business seasonality and are their sectoral anomalies to an illustration of the pitfalls, multiple hypothesis testing recently published a book for the different angle, is called everything I ever needed to know about economics. I learned online dating now. Why did Boyer suddenly turned his attention to online dating? Well, he
recently re entered the dating world himself after twenty years absence in when he signed up for Mamma Dating sites. He found that the dating market very much resembled the labour markets is used to study and more important. He realized dating could be much improved if only everybody approached it like an economist would now, of course he would say that is an economist, but whoever you are when comes to online dating it helps to start with some friends. So, for example, one study found that a man who makes two hundred fifty thousand dollars per year holding everything else equal gets contacted two and a half times as much as a man who makes we're like fifty thousand dollars or less and looks the same. Ok, what else now more education, it turns out, doesn't have much of a direct effect. So of more education on a dating sites. You won't get more attention. On average,
However, you will indirectly- and the reason for that is, if you have more education, are likely to make more money. A typical study. We'll find that a person with one more year of education holding everything else equal, makes eight to ten percent more than someone with one fewer year of education, and so that's gonna later more money at which would then make it more attractive on a website here thing is looks matter a lot, but it turns wait, doesn't matter that much independent of works, so an overweight person. Who is otherwise, medium attractive, we'll do almost as well as a medium attractive person who is not overweight or eight, and what about men's preferences, women's preferences men, on the other hand, care a lot less about income women. Who may More don't get a lot of extra attention and, by the way, the very interesting recent study by to oversee Chicago economists and another economist from another school, and they find
once you get out of this world into real relationships, relationships tend to be less stable and happy the woman makes more money than the man, so it makes sense that women should be more attractive to money than men to begin with. Ok, so Paul lawyer knows a good bit about the rules of attraction in online dating which, if you think about it, it's just dating with a much bigger pool in a much better filter. So here's the question does all of lawyers knowledge translate into actual wisdom another it? Is he any good at giving actual online dating advice? For instance, how do you build the best profile ever? Is it better
to choose a big site like match: dot com or a niche site like gluten free singles, dot com, which is real. Should you lie and if so about one point, it be nice. If Paul lawyer could not only answer these questions, but answer them for a real person who wants to improve with actual online dating situation. Paypal. I harry'll goodness of meat you nice to meet you to its pj's. Both lives in New York. Producer on the public radio show on the media? Co host support cast called Tell D are in Fiji to breathe brave soul, because he let us open up his Okcupid profile, pic it apart on the radio. Even though we ve been told before the you look like Ryan from the office, I know I've
although, like Andy from the office, which I took as a dagger vote, inquire sat down with Susie left in Burg producer and our shared Peter. Do you feel, like you, want to read a few oh boy, so we're looking at my Okcupid profile, which I dont know why this is as embarrassing as it is. But it's got a few pictures of me which I've tried to make like pictures that are flattering but not like two flattering and then just like It's like a series of problems and basically, where moralising allocated is in every case, I've tried to brag and then quickly tell a joke said: has a book like him dragging them so give as an example Ok, so says like what are you doing with your life and I say I'm a public radio producer, which means I edit and report stories brag and drink too much caffeine, mild self, deprecate joke recently I been learning to not jam all my words together in a much said old people can hear me better on the radio
observed, try and get away with that. I see a very transparent give us another example: okay, so lake. It says the six things I could never do without, and this is true, but it all and upsetting like weird bragging, coffee, whisky, running shoes, paperbacks torrents and my geriatric vesper, like you, feel your bragging about being a vesper guy. Whenever that leave us good thing. Can I just ask the old guy question: what are torrent o torrents are their ways that people download media legally online usual. I was gonna think I was pretending to know, but I had better be those like really into torrential rain long walks in the rain. My wife's name and on what we spend a lot of I'm thinking about the weather promises. I spend a lot of time. Thinking about- and I said I spend a lot of time
worrying about people. I know seeing me on here, which is ironic, has run radio right now and are you yeah I feel like I'm? I'm not a person fills a ton of shame and I feel just rivers of shame right now. What's here on your name on her out, this is the worst part, so its part Samson both special like Roland BAR like moved the earth it like the work ethic, really, the worse. The worst thing spots bubble, name out for us boy, Ba Aren, T age, he s ass, I M p, I so I'm so mortifying. Now, as Paul lawyers is the most important first step in our mind, dating to know exactly what you are trying to get out of it as an economist, I can't help but think we start with your objective function.
For we looking for here, marriage someone to hang out with option value, so somebody hang out with that of a turns into more that's good yeah option value sounds like a good way to put em. Ok. So, as I look away you ve got it What before we even look at it, we have to stop and think about. The first thing an economist is gonna. Do us think about supply and demand? So I don't know if you realize this but you're in a great position. New York City is demographic, more female than male. I'm not entirely sure why that's true it out here in San Francisco. It's the opposite. We over supply of men relative to women at least compared to other cities. New York City in Washington DC tend to swing much more towards more available women, so you're in a good position. From a competitive point of view, Europe providing a good single straight mail which is in relatively high demand. Now the other things
keep in mind here is time is very much on your side, so you're in a good position for two other reasons- and that is the male female deferential I just mentioned- is gonna swing much more in your favour over. Ten years, hearts are you're under no pressure to hook up for relationship right now. So that's one thing, that's good. The other thing is just more generally aside from your gender. Fact that you're twenty eight years old from an economy. Point of view means you should be very picky, so you should be. Picky should be looking for a really match, and the reason for that is suppose you do fine, just the right, person and get married and live happily ever after. Well, you're, no rush to do that, because you have, Let's just say fifty more years in which to enjoy the relationship you find if it's a successful one. So when I was on the online dating market. Recently, you know I'm much older than you are and from
I shall economic perspective. I should be less picky than you hot too. I should be searching a little less carefully. I should be so filling out settling is an important idea. It's very important economists, because of what we call search theory suggest that at some point you should realize that having what you have is better than expending more resources to try to do better and that's more true. When you are my age, I'm fifty now than when your your age, which is twenty eight, so what's the year, were that what do you mean was bodies as Hungary. Here it's a slow studied your patients bullshit, slowly and steadily erode. Ok, that's happening right now. You should be very nation
so Paul lawyer is telling Pga vote. That Pga is in pretty good shape dating wise. One thing he's got going form. It is using a big dating website Okcupid in a big city, New York, I don't want to advertise for any given website, but especially in your demographic, a younger demographic okcupid is what we call a thick market is a very big website. There are lots of men and women on it. So by putting yourself on this website, you're going to have lots of choice and a lot of people are gonna. Have the opportunity to see you and consider you as an option. That's a very good thing. Casio quality or I could say that if it's like a derailing question Naga. Ok! So, my friends- I talk about this all the time like my my female friends and my mail friends, all feel that this is true like that that
and in New York and in cities where my friends live. Everyone actually feel these market forces and we talk about them and I hate them, and I often a man I wish that our from I was thinking the suburb that I'm from where most people aren't are not like me like in a sort of cultural attitude or whatever, I think I'd be so much happier being there where I had almost no choice and were I would meet one person who seemed like I could be happy with them and then I wouldn't have to. I feel the hardest part is the feeling of, like others, all these people who seem pretty good like if our shopping for a tv it be fun, if everybody's clamouring for my dollar, but like that, since terrible but like wings, when it's like your hearts involved, feel so bad. It's the ideas. Do you wanna be a big fish in a small ponder? Do you I mean vision, a big bunch, just like the idea of that, the search sacks, even if the searches like waited in your favour,
yes, okay, so a couple of things can help me out here. One is if the technology is good enough on the dating site. You want a huge dating site that gives you just a very, very small fraction of the available people on the site ha so think about this Think about if we tried to put everybody on one dimension, which is of course, the kind of over simplification that economist get made fun of all the time. For him. That's fair, but just think about a boardwalk and at one end of the boardwalk is p or who are completely incompatible for you. For one reason, at the other end of the boardwalk is people who are completely incompatible for you for another and you are right in the middle of this boardwalk and then think of all the women, who might be in your potential in your market as being evenly distributed along this boardwalk were the ones who happen to be right. Next, you are perfect fit for you or very good fit for you in the ones. At the extremes are not well We see the more women on that boardwalk, the better you are, but if you don't know
actually where they are on the boardwalk then, the more women there are, the more problematic it s. So if the technology is good enough to show you hear the ten Women who are really close to what you're looking for that way, better then going to a city where the whole boardwalk has only ten people right. It's easy to play the whole field of that boardwalk, but the chances that Those women would be a good fit for you are not nearly as good. So this is what we call a thick market effect and it does have the opposite problem that thicker markets lead to more costs of screening, the all the potential candidates, and if the software can do that, for you, you would you'd be better off. I mean: do you feel, like the software does a good job that so that's how I feel
So whether you are a street man in your twenties, like Peter Vote for a street woman like Alley Red who is pretending to be a very different kind of ST woman or if you're, gay or if you're, in your fifties, like Paul lawyer, your hopes of meeting the right person are very much dependent upon a series of algorithm now does that make you nervous? If so, we can help coming up on for economic radio, how to build the best online dating profile ever there's an economist. I look at that and I want to suggest the following that you fill in detail. Bearing in mind two ideas that are very port in an economic and why?
online dating is a bigger deal in using the internet, has turned matching upside down. It used to be that you would find compatibility first and then learn more about someone else's attributes. And now you see all the attributes and then you want about compatibility later. Economics, radio sponsored by wonder is business movers podcast when cocoa Allah changed their recipe to what they called new Coke in nineteen. The five. The backlash was swift and severe, and yet the man who drove the change Chairman Robert, always wetter, pulled new coke from the shelves.
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Dating site, Ok Cupid has section called my details where you can fill in all kinds of fact about yourself, or, I should say facts in quotation marks, since you can really great when everyone you fill in your f. Mrs De body tape, diet, religion, income, astrological, sign the pets, you love hate, the economist, Paul Boyer, the author of everything I ever needed to know about economics. I learn from our mind dating told Piedra vote ensues, elect him very that there's a science filling in these details and that sometimes Sometimes you might want to lie as I discuss in the book. People lie all the time online and I never would advocate lying, but these were to where I thought. If you want to signal to somebody and I'm nothing, should the were serious and ready for a relationship longer term. You might either not answer them more shade.
Saturate a little or whatever term you I'm so worried about where this is going to bed they're not big deal, but you said you space out quote all the time. Oh yeah, that's true so you might not want if you're looking for someone is thinking about who's, gonna be the father of their children. Oh yeah, that's a good point. That's is that why you and my father- I mean kind of honestly like I would here's here's the thing I would want to date to an even if it were a cash
Oh where re hour they were like. I would never want to make a human with this. Perhaps the other you said you were quote attracted to dangerous situations, yeah. That may be true, but you don't I'm not suggesting you better, go back and give a false answer. I'm just saying you don't have to answer ever I there were a few questions when I filled out the ok, Cupid questions. There were few. I just didn't fill out and I'll be honest. There were a few. Were I checked a box that I don't think it was entirely truthful. What I checked, such as in some of the questions asked you how into deep conversations with your me an cuddle laying in things like that you are,
I may have made myself seem a bit more accessible and all the men from an honest first said would say so. Paul Euler admits he fibbed a little bit, but that's because some of the signals in a dating profile can come across a really strong. If they send the wrong message, it might be better to turn them down a bit. So What kind of signals was PJ's vote sending out? You want to read what you have in your mind. He tells you have that in front of you. My details, I is fight. Had your dear body type is jack. I think that that is supposed to scan ass, a joke. I say: don't smoke, I say during socially, which is stretching Lobo protracted more than socially, and it says that I speak English. Ok,
I look at this and I think this guy's just looking for a good time like he's not taking it seriously revise everything's a joke. Yeah thirty ago, exactly as an economist. I look at that and I want to suggest the following: ok, you fill in or detail, keeping in mind two ideas: that very important in economics and the related. They are statistical discrimination and adverse selection. So when people look at things in your site, they're going to make assumptions about you based on statistical, functions. Ok, a simple example. Looking at your thing is you have many sort of jokes flash statements about whiskey and other alcohol consumption, and maybe it's fine, if you're, just looking for the hang out market,
Any is this guy marriage, material market, the drinking and then the fact that all your pictures or an extremely casual attire waits either. I shall dressed up pictures. Hell. No, I think if you want to show that you're, serious and you're ready to settle down should consider having one or two pictures that show that now the other to keep in mind here is. There are certain things. Women want, especially when it comes to set settling down when they're starting to look for spouse material. There are certain things: women, deaf only want a man, and you can't fix some of these in that's, ok, so one of them is they they like rich man, yeah, and you know I don't know your family background, but you're the public really think she's, probably not what what they're looking for as far as rich goes. But that's ok, so you just have to accept that yeah I mean, I think I don't know
alcohol thing, gives me pause bracing for the most part. I think I know and its actual I hereby dating is, I think I know what I'm selling like. I think I have a firm idea of lake, the kind of person who is probably going to like me. I know what a superficial level what details are gonna like about me. You have to keep in mind the distant and between somebody who's gonna, like you once they get to know you, which is the most important thing you're looking for, and somebody going to be initially attracted to your profile, I'm gonna, throw all economics jargon. Guys please do what you on every member in your profile, is that you want to be very up front and forthcoming in anything. That is what an economist will call a coordination game. It's where our interests are aligned and as long as we have the right information were going to make the right decision. So, in my case, I was very up front, improve and forthcoming on my profile about the fact that I had a
large and badly behaved golden retriever, and the fact that I had to teenage children, because if somebody was against those things, then that was those words deal breakers and in your case you want to be honest about the fact that your public radio producer, because, on the one hand, that the very attractive to some people, but it also indicates you're not going to be rich in, at least in the short term, You don't want anybody who wants you just for your money either because you dont, like those type of people or because even if you do you're, not gonna get them once they have the information anyway. But beauty that is, you still have plenty of time to learn that you have time to experiment, makes mistakes, and then you have a time for the reasons we talked about and be you of this very thick market of available women where you live so if you make them mistakes early on sure your heart or get broken you'll be cut.
Black, but then you can go or learn from your mistakes than it allow work out. Happily,. So in case you're wondering as I was wondering whether all of Paul lawyers dating advice is worth listening to. One thing I want to ask is: did it help him get well it did he found his significant other unjust date. So naturally we want to know if lawyers advice worked for Pga vote to a few weeks after they talked, I asked Pga how he changed his ok, profile so generally. The sense I got from talking to him was that I came out offers like a flip. An alcoholic traded diminish
that, so I cut, I think, one reference to drinking k which one I think now I didn't let us forever, but I what I did was I answered. He said that I should fill out sort of more of the questions. The basic questions about me. Did you change your photos? Yes, he's told me to put in a picture myself like more preventive, also took a picture from a wedding. Can I say: yeah yeah, that's really good, but also its really cool about this pictures. It's you in a suit looking grey surrounded by four women raids that their sort of like an implicit legless? It lay all stand next, what's wrong with you and ok, what was your it was a solar shot before another kind, a little less lack, garee, yeah,
I also out of this is this was a better picture of my dog, which felt like to the spirit of his advice and a bunch of old Ladys. Has that a case here? We ve, oh, my god, you're canny, So this is actually a perfect mere in a way of the other picture of you at the wedding, with four young good. Looking girls Here you are on a park bench and what looks like Brooklyn her, yet Brooklyn, you're gonna park bench holding a dog not just in your lap but Your arms, like you say I have so much love to give. I have to give it to the dog cause you're, not here, and then there are four older women surrounding you, looking as thou. Ah, if only I were forty years younger, this would be the man of my dreams or, if
for forty years older, yet exactly Pga. Also tweet is profile a bit as polo you're suggested. He tried to highlight some of his best attributes. Public radio like relatively Fine, not defer ass, not give good teeth. Thank you. I should actually be yeah. Well, no, no, I think that's a three let the picture do talk and right, but the weird thing is your sort of delay echoes what I mean. Look it's hard for me to say, but I would think that if I were women in any guy who talked about like, if he's listing his teeth as an attribute to convey, it feels vain and be it's like
If that's what you must review, we read the list is going to be very long, but I'm just saying, as an aside, you do have good. Thank you. If you like, an apartment being like we have a saying, we have legal working, saying I thought You have a thing. So how did it work out for Pga? He did get a bunch more replies, but he thinks that's, because a new photo on your profile can trigger more traffic. So no, no good news report. Yet now it's easy to get lost in the details of online dating and fail to appreciate what it Rep Ray.
That's which is a new and theoretically improved way for one person to take a look around the seven billion other people on the planet and try to pick the right. One comes with its own problems, that's for sure, but the strengths of our minds. Are very real, especially if you aren't a single straight man living in a big big city, a thick market with an over abundance of single street women for certain thin, daddy monetizing, its revolutionise things just involve offers is an economist at the University of Michigan. So I do think it's a really big deal full young, gay and lesbian men and women in otherwise homophobic areas. I this also very big deal in the jewish community J date here on my jewish friends, talk about being under pressure from two made. A good jewish boil go, but they don't have an be everywhere.
But there are eleven J died and I imagine this is true and other ethnic communities and certainly its enormous easy to match on very, very specific sexual preferences. So, whoever you are an whoever you're looking for welfare says the internet has turned dating upside down. It used to be you would find compatibility first and then learn more about someone else's attributes, and now you see only attribute
and then you learn about compatibility later for an economist. It's very seductive, too believes that more information makes these things work better, and I guess you know I haven't seen careful studies initiate of as to whether these high information marriages or would not be more stable
well, this leads us very nicely to next week's episode. It's called why Mary you're here just a mole furs and many others talk there all the myths of modern marriage and whether any of them are actually true. So that's next week today will leave you with an email from a listening, Katy holes or she writes, pay double Levitt. My name is Katy and I'm a fourteen year old listener from Rochester Minnesota one day, I'd love to start my own podcast. So I have some questions for you. What are your job responsibilities? What do you think is the best contribution your job makes to society all, my birthday is this Thursday and I would love it if you would shout me out on the show, thanks, ok, Katy job responsibilities on this podcast, basically Levitt does the numbers I do the world's best
contributes in we make to society. Are you getting gave you ever listened to this by gas? We definitely don't contribute anything to society and about your birthday at the birthday, Katy Hills and thank you for listening for economics radio is produced by W and Y see and debonair productions. Our staff includes David Herman, Gregg, resolves ski gretta, cone Bahrain, Susie Lichtenberg and Chris Van in, if you are more frequent, comics radio, you can subscribe to our podcast on Itunes or go to for economics, dot com. We'll find lots of radio, a blog, the books and more.
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Transcript generated on 2021-03-13.