« Freakonomics Radio

219. Preventing Crime for Pennies on the Dollar

2015-09-10 | 🔗
Conventional programs tend to be expensive, onerous, and ineffective. Could something as simple (and cheap) as cognitive behavioral therapy do the trick?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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south side of Chicago been Dawes Park. It summertime venture, teenagers playing basketball. I gotta get younger kids are hanging around nearby they're, just goofing, often when they microphone. They do what kids often do they go into. It it's a kind of neighbourhood were growing up, can be very hard just ass, the guys on the court, live in his car. Those boys light yeah you black, gotta watch a beggar our terms, where does you know you got always they shouted be. Awesome Are you kidding me some negative other, though I about time and come to the current some positive signs catch, your name Emma the anti the great Britain, the
anti degrade? The e g are eighty Griffin known as we are aware, the anti the great Griffin is eighteen years old. He recently graduated from high school, but not in Chicago drew up here, but a few years ago he left for Lana, when one of his friends was shot. The friend was thirteen. Let my daddy want me to go to high school now discuss it is ok, that's the thing about Chicago, it's pretty dangerous! How interest. Is it compared to say New York? relative to New York. It is amazingly dangerous, the homicide, in Chicago are roughly three times higher per capita than the homicide grating Your believer, not at Steve Levitt, my free economic friend and co author he's taught economic. for years at the University of Chicago, with a particular focus on crime. According to FBI, the homicide rate in Chicago, is eighteen point. Five
Four hundred thousand people in New York is just five point, one, the big difference when you look whose murdering and being murdered is that Chicago as a very active gangs. Very violent gangs and provisions I understand very well. The New York has never really had gangs awaited Chicago has gangs. Indeed, why gets famously hard to get good data on gang members. Law enforcement groups estimate that Chicago has more than a hundred thousand gang one New York much larger city has only around twenty thousand. So it's easy to believe that has something to do with Chicago's high crime rate, although we should say that Chicago isn't, even in the top ten when it comes to the most violent big american Citys Stairs Detroit Oakland Memphis Saint Louis. In any case, Chicago plenty, dangerous, so much so that the Chicago public Schools, the cps, asked lever in some colleagues for help
They were extremely concerned about the pattern of violence against Chicago public school students. No actual students were being shy. Not necessarily in school and was never in school, but when they would it's gone, it actually remarkable how many of these students we're being shot. There was something like two hundred fifty Chicago public school students were being shot each year of which about twenty or thirty were or dying. The cps had launched a programme in two thousand nine designed to prevent violence and keep kids in school. It was considered particularly innovative. It offered full time mentoring. It gave students part time jobs. It was, however, inexpensive programme about fifteen thousand dollars per student per year, so the Cps wanted Levin and his colleagues to help figure out how to allocate this precious resource. The plan was to pay special attention to roughly two hundred kids, who are considered most at risk.
and so what they asked us to do is to try to come up with a model statistical model that would help them figure out who they should target this programme for, and so they gave us a really unique dataset we had done the identities of every student in Chicago public schools and we know a lot about them about grades and whether they came to school or not, and and even about The criminal background, whether they had been sent to you now detention, so lever got to work long with a couple of colleagues, Dana Chandler and John List. They analyze the identifying characteristics of students who had been shot in the past. In order to help predict which kids might be targets in the future, some of the characteristics jumped right out of them. The single vest predictor of being shot overall, as is so often the case with crime turns out to be
in mail. It was almost exclusively boys who got shot. Ok, no big, surprise! There! There are some other unsurprising traits having been to juvenile detention Having dropped out of school having low GPA. All of those things predicted who shot race was a very prominent factor. or so it seemed an african American by was twenty times more likely to be shot than than a white boy who is going to the Chicago public schools and yet once you control for information about the neighborhoods and grades in the past history and things like that. The role of race really disappeared. So it was. It was a case where the racism it was more a symptom of some other behaviors. Tat might be involved, rather than actually the race itself was determining the being shot. Ok, how
Well did you are predictive model seem to work. It worked, ok, but not not fantastically. Well, we could isolate a group of kids out of sample who were about twenty times is likely to be shot as the average kids that sounds impressive when you think about it, but the likelihood of being shot his so low in the sample, we were only able to predict one two shootings over the scent of kids. So it's an interesting case about with statistics. How, if you presented one way while that's really But what? If you really dig down into it, you realize, while its assistance such Unlikely and random acts semi random act that we really didn't have much predictive power at all or eight, so Levitt and his colleagues warrant much help on that damage, but they also tried to figure out the efficacy of the programmes It was already running the programme that try to keep kids in school and away from violence one component of this programme.
run by a national nonprofit called Youth Advocate programmes or yap. There is one of these urban I am sure they had meant oars and they came in and they they tried to coach the kids and teach him to do the right thing that sort of stuff sounds so enthusiastic about it. Yeah. Well, you want. Another results are to be enthusiastic about about. The programme are giving their results and, while the result where we really didn't see any affected are now it was perfect study, because we as much as we pushed in prodded on the Chicago public schools to run it as a randomize experiment. you and I and a lot of people have been advocating when it comes to doing social science. They were going to do that. That said, the study was good enough to learn what effect. If any the programme had, the programme didn't seem to have really in any dimension, seem to have changed lives of these kids. So what is a better model? Knowing what you know
these interventions and how they didn't work. That would work with the conventional wisdom. Is that there's almost nothing that you can do these kids? That will help that there has been a long history of our various interventions and by and large what we found is that once you get to be a teenager, there's not much! You can do. That will be very helpful for this population. The idea that a lot of our bad habits are pretty fixed by adolescents and it's really hard to rewire teenager whose already in trouble are heading for trouble. But is that really true? Or is it just a way to explain why society hasn't done a better job of helping at risk, kids and preventing crime? Today? On for economics, radio will hear from a criminologist who did get to run a randomized expert the results of which just might rewire you're thinking about crime and a lot of other things to the first time. We saw these facts, we thought wow. Can this be
ice from the W. And my see this is free economics, radio, the pot calves that explores the hidden side of everything. Here's your host. Governor now we're in downtown Chicago nine. Thirty, on a Friday morning, Tony De Vittorio is running a meeting with about a half dozen men sitting unfolding chairs. So allow housekeeping surfers are welcome, couple couple things going on number one were scheduled to be here too: four diva Vittorio works for Chicago Organization, called youth guidance not to be confused with YAP or the Youth Advocate Programme, different people,
but youth guidance is also in the business of trying to keep Chicago public school students at a trouble. Today, diva story who is training a group of councillors, so what's with the goal for today today is to introduce the value of accountability, are our fourth Go De Vittorio background is in psychology. He'll drop phrases like hostile attribution theory and positive thought he spent this. But he also knows what it's like to grow up in a rough neighbourhood, like the students he's trying to help our born and raised in South West side of Chicago, so I had at their expense, Serbian and at risk use myself de Vittorio also calls himself a rights of passage. Elder he's thought. what about what it means to be a man to become a man He and his father had a difficult distant relationship. De Vittorio has worked through
a lot of old emotions, poked alot of old wounds and over time he incorporated this thinking into his work with teenagers, and he built a programme. He calls becoming a man or ban he'd, get young men to sit down in a circle and talk about the authority figures in their lives. But why they shouldn't drop out of school. I was working with You two were referred to me for anger issues. Cotton class shown at their teachers. What have you I was operating within these different modes. I was a clinician on a psychologist to and counselling. I have these boys, explore the men they want to be coming and passing on his knowledge and getting them to do what we called deep dive. I realized that what whatever I was doing was effective because the teachers kept referring the boys. caps ii in some emotional regulation with the boys, the boys kept coming back opening up in these circles- and I sat there,
Two thousand was a. What is it that I'm doing what what's happening here? It was only when he set his method down on paper Jupiter, who says that he realized what he was doing. Oh, I see, I'm doing cognitive behavioral therapy cognitive behavioral therapy receive BT, is Form of psychotherapy, that's pretty common in mental health treatment, although not in the kind of social work that D Vittorio. This is meant to be short term pragmatic approach to helping people solve problems. As the name implies, it's meant to change behaviour without necessarily dwelling on the underlying psychological sources of those behaviors. As talk therapy does see me DE tries to get people to think differently about behaviors that have become practically automatic to respond more thoughtfully to stress, and not just in a purely there.
Peter Ground CD has actually interesting, Laban, prove ineffective in lots of other domains, but Sarah Heller, depression and anxiety for medication, adherents for smoking cessation. We know that ceiling. He is a strategy that works in a short amount of time to change behaviour, You didn't know what sort of that it could apply to these other types of policy. Relevant behaviour is like drop out and crime drop out in crime. That's exactly what Heller wanted to learn about. She's, a professor of criminology at the University of Pennsylvania she also participates in the University of Chicago's crime, lad witches network of researchers who try to fight the empirical solutions to crime and violence that crime develops because the University of Chicago was desperate to try to help the city come up with ways to solve the gun, violence problem in Chicago and elsewhere, and so on
first things they cried. My dad was to run a design competition into sort of announced to the city. Give us all your best ideas for reducing gun violence, we're gonna, pick them idea raise the money for it and make it happen, and that's how Heller and her colleagues got acquainted with Tony Vittorio in his bed. Project in two thousand nine, the youth guidance organs one the design, competition, this was a major victory. The crime lap helped youth guidance. raise nearly a million dollars in funding, but was also a challenge. Deep. Coral in Bam had been operating in just a single public school in Chicago now they'd be in over a dozen schools working with a lot more kids in two thousand and nine, I was the only band staff from for ten years. It was just me and now We have sixty Damn councillors or something like that. Here's how it would work de vittoria, oh and the other Bam councillors would meet with students inside there
goes during regular class periods. That way, the kids will have to get themselves somewhere else after school for the therapy, It was a one hour session once a week, each student had the chance to take up to twenty seven sessions during the school year. The crime labs Ferris funding came with just one catch Bam had delete Sarah Heller and the other researchers evaluate the programme to see whether it actually worked. The key was this: the project as a randomized controlled trial, the population of eligible students would be divided into a treatment group who get the c B. T intervention and control who wouldn't the random division, was accomplished by lottery. So every one sort of appreciates the idea, there's no nepotism involved. You don't have to pick and choose which kids deserve to be in the programme or not or on the more challenge. Again, they use don't feel like they ve been singled out because there in trouble right
just sort of the lock of the draw the kids who did get drawn were now placed in the Bam programme. The idea was to teach him to slow down there. Thinking when they ran into challenging situations to control their immediate impulses, the basic theory rests on something that were calling autumn activity are automatically is there. An automatic behaviour is something we all engage in all the time right. It's just even without consciously thinking of and probably dont? Well, you just said it without consciously think about they're, probably all kinds of behaviors- that we all do whether bad five years or otherwise- that we will probably think were deciding to but we really just doing purely out of- habit or auto materia exactly the good thing we do, because it actually very cognitive, less costly to think about every action right. It would take forever we'd, never get past breakfast. If we had to make
decision from scratch re write anything about even opening a door right. If you have to consciously think ok, there's the door now have now I'm going to reach out and I'm gonna clench my fingers around right. I mean that's a very simplistic example, but there's all sorts of things that really require a lot of autumn atrocity in everyday life, often times Nomadic behaviour is very adaptive, but in some circumstances it can be mallet, active, especially when you're automatic response is ill suited to the situation that you're in pillar worked with several colleagues on the study from a variety of disciplines hens. It will send all malign, often Harold, Pollack and other academic heavyweights. The notion of autumn activity was drawn in large part from the world view of the psychologist, Daniel Common, whose work we often discuss on the show In fact, the research paper that Heller and the others would write is called thinking fast and so
oh, which is the same name as condiments two thousand eleven book. It describes the two avenues of thought. We all engage system. One in system to system too, is a more deliberative style system. One is so fast and emotional ass to be automatic, but people from different back We have different automatic responses, think about a is walking down the street in an upper middle class. Neighbourhood comes up and demands his cell phone problem is automatic. Response is going to be handed over and then go run until an adult, and he has built up that automatically. Bonds over many years of being in situations where that has become very adaptive, right where adults are reliable, where compliance constructive behaviour, and so When that kid then shift over there, the classroom- and teacher says- are everyone sit down? Is time to start class comply
maybe the automatic behaviour and it's very adaptive. Ok, that's that kid, but not all kids, so now think about a youth whose growing up in a much poorer neighborhood, where there's a lot more chaotic environments where compliance is probably the adaptive thing right. So there's a lot of evidence about street life and for neighbourhoods and how important it is to stand up you self to show that you're not a victim right, because if you just comply with every request that comes your way. You're gonna get beaten up quite a lot, and so there you might develop an automatic response that the little bit, maybe more aggressive, more assuming that other people are hostile trying to avoid conflict until it comes and then really strongly standing up for yourself, and so If someone in that environment, says on the street, says hey Gimme, your cell phone are yours is probably going to be at least a little bit less polite then hear yoga hooray, and so, if you think about right, what that person might do there might be shoving or fighting there might be some profanity. If you there,
and think about that youth and a classroom where the teacher says everyone sit down, so we can start class that might feel like admittedly the same situation right, someone is challenging year. You might feel like something is at stake for you, but if you that same aggressive reaction in front of it teacher, you're, gonna get kicked out of class, and so can see their that it's not that using in a poor area, is any more automatic or that the the rich, are sort of behaving less automatically everyone's applying this automatic behavior. But you in four neighborhoods face so many different kinds of situations. There situations are more variable and when the context, various that's particularly hard for automatics responses, you're gonna be more likely to have a maladaptive response. So how did you learn to interrupt the automatic response? That's what Tony Vittorio and the Bam Programme for all about the students in the programme would participate
in a variety of c B. T routines, one of them known as the fist exercise. So the first is very interesting. It's one of the first things that use do when they're starting the Bam programme. It works like this De Vittorio or another bam, counselor would bring roughly doesn't teenage boys and classroom and invite them not tell them invite them to sit in a circle more often than not the boys do and before I say anything I say, find a partner stand up, and a partner go anywhere in a room you'd like just not standing tables dunkel by two teachers, deaths and so hair off and I say, listen pay attention to what I am about to say. the person be letter a and the other person be letter b in their partnership go ahead and decide the kids decide who's. Who then I say, letter a go ahead and make a fist. Now all the EU make a fifth letter b partner, we have thirty seconds to open up letter, ace fist, but hang on
let me give you the rules. There's only one rule there are no rules. Go over. You can imagine what happens in a room full of adolescent boys who have just been told there are no rules. All hell breaks They start beaten the crap out of each other's right, everyone sort of chasing after each other trying to get the fist open tunnel. Sometimes physical, Fort Sumter did you head locks teachers by thinking that we're out of control, because on about thirty seconds time old time out they switch. there is no other person closes this fists. Other sort of equal opportunity, bashing going on you do the same thing happens its utter chaos. Eventually, although their wisdom, bring everyone Bactra debrief your hearts evaded smile her face. They had some fun and health. Ok, how many? succeeded in opening your partners test your hand, you know- maybe three people Antonia will say well that
interesting. It doesn't seem like a very difficult task to tell me the kinds of things that you tried? How did you get this? open or how did you try and you go around the circle? I now say: well, you know first, I grabbed his wrist and twisted, but he got away so then I tried a kidney pungent, Tony saying it seeing interesting- and I say you know it's interesting- not one of you asked your partner if he could open open, right. No one ever asked the Barnard, openness, fist, Antonia will say well. Why not, and they say like, while he would have thought I was apparently never would have done it or you would work Antonio say well, how do you know you know what There's starts a conversation about how you know what other people are. Thinking how you know how, though reactor things, unless you sort of try and ask now I'm going to remote it there You're there scene I talk about. Did you know that a powerful man an exceptional man- is a man who was willing to ask for he wants? there's times I gotta take things, and I know, but
the street. Sometimes I have to be in that kind of thinking, but there's other times with deadened, gonna work, and I have know how to ask for what I want the required. Their eyes are real big. Their hearing. A soft skill- it's a very engaging way to get used to start to think about their own thought processes to think about other peoples. That process without having to sit down and give them instruction about what meadow, cognition and thinking about their own thinking means
we wondered? How the fist exercise would work with the kids we heard from earlier play. Basketball indoors park tried his game. We sent producer, build Healy, their Healy modified the fist exercise. Instead he used a water bottle. He gave the bottle to Don T Griffin untold another kid he had to get it out of Gryffens Hand, helping a basically got thirty seconds and you gotta get this bottle away from her again only one room. That's them. There are no rules, so you gotta get the bottom. My again only rule is that there are no rules. They waited for the sirens to pass.
I hear this almost every moment I woke up. Hers are and then came. The countless women cannot actually that lets you twenty. Second, when I got something I gotta you gotta, get it from him. No account there to do so. The other question they want to be asked. That is why don't you just ask, does a good closing? Oh no! I guess I guess I just no there's a gay, this town- we know why is critical thing about him like mentally therein
I couldn't you therefore, but I guess this is something that is I also causes data take it Y know you don't write. Neighbours is asking for. It will be some simple you how to raise. No energy is like gotta take it. I guess I'll know is, is ironic because it almost later Chicago because like instead to do some simple, keep us those simple they try to just take everyday life. Even even people can get jars. do they tat robs deal just take a stand in order. I name is how to work for what they want and is maybe act as well. We need, as Germany is a guy, but because this allowed in a mere hoo hoo grow up, not around real man, but they don't really know how to carry themselves as real men. So when they grow up, they grow up trying to be. You know, I'm saying need a people who they see in those are their tea. The p
as you Know- and I do not have much to do things and maybe peers view accepted not a lot a cue down the old girl Father figures about, we teach them how to be a man. That's why, go out any streets, they try to They lie shoe somebody to make me feel like I'm a man That's not what it is anyway, kill somebody real Mahmoud. Oh Mamma. Do does we really do Dante Griffin hasn't ever been to ban is never met. Tony De Vittorio The lesson of the fist exercise, or in this case the bottle exercise- seems to hold real promise so coming up and economic radio will the programme really work? Will it actually help prevent these kids from getting violent from dropping out of school. The fact that we see this over
over indifferent settings? I think starts to build the case that there might be really something going on here from W and Y see. This is for economics, radio, here's your host, Stephen Governor You have likely gleaned by now the Chicago youth come Lord Tony De Vittorio as a pretty damn Eric personality? Guy words? again, he sincere he's funny telly loves working with young people and teaching others how to work with young people during training session for Bam councillors. He connects easily with the other men we're going to have some fun now, in addition to the fist exercise and drills, like that d, Vittorio
x to use roleplaying. He wants to get kids to think critically about their own way My favorite one I'll share with you. My fair ones. Call high school day, high school day is about learning, to take an emotion like anger and channels, something more positive, even shorter talks to the kids about the difference between a savage energy and a warrior. Energy savage entered he says, is a completely normal emotion and warrior energy is taking normal savage energy and make it a choice to express a positively. He has them act out. situations there likely to encounter in their own lives. One kid will play the role of a high school security officer, was filled with warrior energy and another. Kid plays himself a student on his way to class you're the student and you're on yourself on walking through the hall in your filled with savage energy. Today, no one tell you what to do You come from the streets, man you're bad ass. You know that kind of thing and then you have him act out these scenarios. They have a lot of fun with it
a new process. It was like to be in savage. Energy was like to be a warrior energy. Did you feel like a punk and you get them refer upon them. And then you go to act to where maybe now security officers having a bad day. Here she is filled with savage energy, but the student man he's, when the ban and he's trying to do is warrior energy thing and he's fuller respect in this in that and now The security guard officers, like you, gotta suspension, you got this, you got that and the student asked in a row play stay and swore your energy. Always learn what it feels like to not lash out do not act on impulse. Andy Vittorio, sits him in a circle and they dig deep. They talk about their strong points. They talk about what trips them and this is when the boys really open up man everytime. I think my father, we know something and we said, to see why it's too, call for this used to come into the school and go to algebra class and sit there learn algebra, because all this
truth comes out in a circle, and why what's really now get to some real content, solutions to how to handle this would De Vittorio in Bam. Don't do said, SARA Heller is Tell kid, how they should in shouldn't behave so they're, not teaching youth, never fight would be a stupid thing to teach youth in these neighborhoods. It's just trying to teach you to slow down a little bit, be a little bit more reflect Dave rather than reflexive in their thinking, and just think for those oh five seconds what kind of stuff? patient am I an do. I need to I'm down this automatic response or not. So this all sounds good right c b. T with at risk Chicago teenagers, getting them in touch with their emotions and their automatic responses. But did it work all well and good to run crime prevention programmes and stay in school programmes, but if they dont prevent crime and keep kids in school. or in the kind of a waste of time and money. Fortunately, Sarah Heller
and her colleagues now had the data to answer this question, the becoming a man study covered more two thousand seven hundred boys in eighteen public schools in Chicago from seventh grade through tenth grade a lot of these kids were already in trouble. Roughly a third of them have been arrested, at least once before the study began. Now. Remember the researchers randomized study so that half these kids entered the Bam Programme and the other half didn't, This allowed Heller and her colleagues to look at arrest and school dropout data in the twelve plus months after the Bam programme began and compare the boys who, guy The treatment to those who didn't so the first year of Bam. We saw forty four percent decline in violent crime, arrests and thirty six, percent decline and other non violent, non property. Non drug arrests We see an increase in school engagement that we think might.
Eventually wants the kids are old enough, improving graduation rates by maybe seventy twenty two percent right, so that the improvement wildly large and these two my eyes. It's almost you know, and I want to say too good to be true. I don't mean to imply that I dont believe it but LAO it seems as though it really works yeah I mean I agree with you The first time that we saw these facts, we thought wow Can this be rice so just to be sure pillar and her colleagues did a second randomize study of another season of bam, counselling, fairly similar in scope to the first. The effects weren't as large as the first study but still large same programme differ. That of kids are also finding about a thirty percent decline in overall arrests, even so pillar, the other researchers one to make sure they were measuring the efficacy of c b t generally and not just the Bam programme. After all, twenty two the Tories is a really likeable guy plus he's built like a boxer,
looks like someone you want on your side, one of the things you might worry about what the ban programme is it is it just, Tony who developed the programme is Charismatic and so good that he's having these facts can possibly work other settings with different types of youth even do Toto says it's hard to know what the magic ingredient is. Yes, amuses alot of c b t, but also some mentoring and rights of passage work better. Since it such a mix of these different theories. It's trying to figure out what are we really measuring here, so the University of Chicago Crime, lab researchers ran a third experiment. This one having nothing to do with ban this one was a rather accidental experiment and at the cook county, juvenile temporary detention centre. That J T Dc, which is youth. Attentions on our where youth go between the time they get arrested and when the court decides what they want to do with them. So average youth are therefore only three weeks, although there is a lot of very ability,
how long you stay and historically, the duty to see has been a very challenging place. There was a ACL use, lawsuit that ended up with the federal government. pointing administrator there who started a series of reforms and some of these reforms involve cognitive, behavioral therapy or c b to you, so that you engage and see beauty every day and forever yes reasons those reforms got frozen halfway through such that have of the residential units within the centre were operating under this new cb tv system and half they were operating under the status quo. Perfect, for you, then, right exactly of your research area. Spidey sense should be doing right now, so we talk to the administrator and we said well. How do you decide which to place in which generous you know. Do you try to keep youth separate by gay affiliation these as non on? I like to really mix them up waste
well do try to place youth who, you think are going to benefit most from the sea BT programme mainly says now, you know basically it's practically random. and we said really random. You say how it just the hidden, and so we and about the benefits are making it actually random, so that we can, and from what was going on there and in fact the whole nation could learn from what's happening in Chicago Detention Centre and he was excited and agreed, and so we worked out. System with a staff to randomly assigned whether youth went to the sea between centres are than on C B. T centres which us for an evaluation and they again we're seeing declines in return rates to the detention centre, twelve to eighteen months later, that are about eighty percent lower than in the control group, and so the act that we see this over and over indifferent settings. I think starts to build the case that there might be really something going on here. Sarah pillar and her colleagues rode up the two Bam studies in the treaty Dc Study in a research paper, given the
prince of sizeable behavior change across all three interventions. They pointed out it's worth noting what these interventions are, not they do not involve academic remediation or vocational education or job training or paid temporary jobs or internships, or early childhood education or cash or incline transferred to reduce poverty, in other words, these interim. Genes don't involve any of the conventional and often expensive treatments. Their typically used cognitive behavioral therapy is relatively dirt. Cheap, that's right: it's very low cost, especially in the detention centre, where the staff are already there, the buildings already there. All you gotta do is sort of right change. What you're doing for half hour a day that is incredibly low, cost to the and programme happened in schools. So when you retraining, mentors and bringing them into schools, and you have some administrative costs, there's still a cost to the programme and that first year
was about eleven hundred dollars per participants, but relative The other types of interventions we think about their incredibly inexpensive, and so the sort of the benefit cross ratio is really high, which is news right, because, if you're thinking about trying to eradicate poverty or solve the failing school, the problem in urban areas, those types of task not that they aren't worth doing, but their incredibly expensive. They take a lot of time, and so we here we have interventions where, with an average of thirteen sessions, you can change future behaviour by quite a lot. This is the sort of cost benefit analysis that economists and other academics are fond of, but which isn't always welcome among the people who were actually responsible for trying to of problems. There are politics to be considered their vested interests. Sarah Heller says that the city of Chicago and its mayor, Rama Manual, were supportive of this research, and they ought to be commended for not every power
maker wants to know. If the the way he's spending money is there That way, you know people have programmes that they like that. They want to support its scary thing too, I'm up to evaluation. You know we I'd have evaluated. programmes and found out that they didn't work at all or even that they had harmful effects. and so the fact that Mayor Manual and all the people who run the programmes were so open and supportive, not just of their programme but also their data right. So we had access to public school records. to administrative arrest? Record's? That's really market thing and I think the studies wouldn't have been possible without the kind of support now I'm in here Althea Now- and I think the city here is very interested in this evaluation, so I think it's a good lesson for US cities who are thinking I'd, how to improve outcomes for their cities. Youth that It doesn't have to be scary to work with researchers. Some of Us
they and the challenges and the limitations that they face, and so you know, I hope that this doesn't just sort of talk about these programmes and these ideas, but also helps people think about the benefits incorporating rigorous evaluation into what they're already doing so you're evidence is compelling the forms of c b T worked. These interventions work. What do you know about the law, lasting effect, in other words, is a kind of do teach people how to to make a different automatic decision that will help them in a number of ways, but that if they don't keep getting c b t than no kind of forget a river or is or evidence that at last have some short term evidence on that it now so for the first Bam study the violent crime decree and happened just in the first year the year that the programme is going on and faded out in the second year, but the willing engagement, increase, lasted through that you're following the programme so
Similarly for the detergents on our, we see reduce return rates, twenty Two months later, we don't have a follow up data to sort of see what happens after that. So I think, the really important question to think about how lasting these effects are. Gonna be, would a sort of boosters I'd of C b t let down the line, help make the effects last longer, and in fact the follow up study is trying to test some of those she's right. Does it make a difference if, as one or two years of the programme, but something I'd emphasizes that we have this? India in our head that the only way programme is good and works is if it has effects that last forever and actually when you're thinking about something like violence. I think that's really the wrong way to think about it. Violence is incredibly socially costly. Those there's a way to reduce violent crime even for just a year at a pretty low cost. but we should do it right, you're having a cost effective change, your getting more back in a sort of social benefits, then you're spending and in fact,
cause criminal behaviour declines very quickly with age, so violence, peaks and early teens phase out very quickly in the early twentieth, if you're making- so just a year in some, late teams Then you really might be making a difference in the lifetime number of violent incidents. That's going to occur in that use, life and so I think it's important to sort of pushed back a little there. Against this idea that things only matter if they last forever? Although I've sleep. We would love that affects the last forever and so we're short of working to figure out combination of interventions and for how long can help the effects? Last. I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to not be entreat and impressed with the results of this intervention, stocks, considering how relatively simple and cheap it is so next week on for economics, radio, we wonder what happens you do choose to spend a bit more money if you keep up the cognitive behavioral therapy, but also throwing
some cash incentives to, is literally ten and reductions in Birmingham. This wasn't it. the cargo reason the U S but in Liberia. If you think it's tough getting a teenager, in Chicago to stay in school. Think about what it takes to turn around a former liberian child soldier jostled are we using the Panama instances to torture, even if there was that is: where is such a pressing need to be executed, always want to use jostled just to do that sea BT and cash payments in Liberia. That's next time on economics, radio, Fr Economics Radio is produced by W and Y see and governor productions. Today's episode was produced by Christopher Work. Our staff includes ervic Ganja Jake, how it merit Jacob bread was all ski, Caroline, English and caution Mihail of edge. We had help this
from that fiddler. If you are more frequent, onyx radio, you can subscribe to our pod cast on Itunes or go to freak out mix dot com, we'll find lots of radio, a blog, the books and worn hither, Stephen Double again one more thing: if you liked the episode you just heard, we think you like something else in the freedoms, radio network. Look for this interview on the new pod cast people. I mostly admire with host Steve Living, but my guest today Subaru she collects championships she's for W Nba championships. Five Euro League best Battalion ships to ensure a champion
tips for international basketball, federation, world cups and four olympic Gold medal. I would think that, in order to be the player you are, you would have to be a person who acted gets better under pressure rather than worth. Well, obviously, there are people who are known for heading big shots at her, no one for playing, while in big gangs that exists for sure, but I think we kind of frame it the wrong way. It's not that you're gonna make nine at it. It's that you might make three at a ten but somebody else's making zero it's on whose most successful. It's like who's the most successful. the least successful, that is, people mostly admire you can find it on your favorite podcast app subscribe now, so that you don't miss single episode,
Hey there, Stephen dubbing again, one more thing. If you like for economics, radio, I think you'll also like the latest episode of people, I mostly admire the podcast hosted by my free economic, spreading co, author, Steve Levin. Here's what it sounds like a guest today Sue bird. She collects championships she's for W Nba championships, five euro, the best, while championships too, and see a championships for International Basketball Federation, world cups, and four limpid gold medals. I'd love to talk about the economics of professional basketball, so the average player in the NBA made eight point three million dollars into that nineteen, and in the W Nba the average with eighty thousand is frustrating just now. I think. Actually, if you look at
twenty twenty our minimum, is now higher, but we all put in the same amount of work. So is it hard to swallow, knowing that somebody else's work is being rewarded at times by I live in reality. I understand business and economics. Some people look at us as like charity. They go will will help them out like an it in a terrible. What sense? Not unlike this business, vestment way and we think do look at us as an investment immediately. Its talked about how we don't make money- and it's like fifty years ago in the nba- did either, but people are willing to make that investment get behind it and growing people. I mostly admire you can find on your favorite podcast app.
Transcript generated on 2021-01-25.