« Freakonomics Radio

224. How To Win A Nobel Prize

2015-10-15 | 🔗
The process is famously secretive (and conducted in Swedish!) but we pry the lid off at least a little bit.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This podcast dynamically inserts audio advertisements of varying lengths for each download. As a result, the transcription time indexes may be inaccurate.
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in New York. We do so well. It'll hold you over to when your own Nobel Prize, the sixth and final Nobel Prize of this year, was just awarded, they save the best for last, of course, economics, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the various that expunge prize in economic side in memory of Alfred Nobel to Angus, deepen for his analysis of consumption, poverty and welfare, let's put aside, for But the Nobel Economics is not a real original Nobel I will get into that later, but start by congratulating Angus deem Scottish born scholars been Princeton for many years, he's best
own for bringing an empirical zeal to the study of how individual people spend save, invest and so on, and how those choices are connected to poverty and wealth by Link detailed individual choices and aggregate outcomes. The Nobel Committee declared his research has helped transform the fields of microeconomics Macro Economics and development economics within the economics profession. Dayton is widely revered. The award surprised few and delighted men, so that's great news, her Angus deepen, but what about the rest of us who have an yet one hour Nobel? How are we supposed to hold the one, I'm glad yes at question, because today's episode is called how to win a Nobel Prize
from the w and my see this is freaking out, mix, radio, the pot calves that explores the hidden side of everything. Here's your house given that no Alfred Nobel born in Stockholm in eighteen, thirty three was a chemist, an engineer, an inventor and an entrepreneur. He held more than three hundred fifty patents, many of them concerning weaponry and x losses which, in a world often at war, were always in demand. That's how Nobel made much of his fortune one popular storing, perhaps apocryphal says that in eighteen, eighty eight, when his brother living died in France, the newspapers they are mistaken. They reported that Alfred Nobel had died as
story goes, one obituary was headlined, Lemme Sean did are more and more. The merchant of death is dead. Having been able to read his own a bit. You worry, some historians have speculated Nobel, was inspired to establish an award that might lead to his being remember differently, whatever his motivation when Alfred Nobel died in eighteen. Ninety six childless. He left a will demanding that his esteem be used to fund annual prizes to people who have quote conferred the greatest benefit on mankind. There would be prizes in five categories: literature, peace, physics, chemistry and in medicine or physiology. The Nobel Prize has of course, becoming the most famous and well regarded prizes in the world, with winners to match among the peace prize winners, Theodore, Roosevelt Martin Luther King, Jr and Mother Teresa in literature
way Shaw can move in the sciences. Albert Einstein, Sir Alexander Fleming, Pierre and Marie Curie and in economics wait a minute whose facing about a note prize in economics, vague economics price in the Member of Alfred Nobel, is not one of the original noble prices that in all four Nobel put in his will. We have a very special guest today. Program. His name is pair Stromberg, I'm a professor of finance at the Stockholm economics. Animals are one of the members in the prize Committee for the year prison again. X and the memory of Alfred Nobel, which means that he can tell us everything there is to know about how to win a Nobel Prize in economics rate. Has We do not allow due to talk so much about what happens now, we'll see about that pair. Let's start with the basics, the Economics Prize was established by the Swedish Central Bank in nineteen sixty eight, nearly seven decades after the original prizes
They create that they wanted to be a prize in the Nobel family if you will and should basically follow the same principles the same procedures, the same amount of rigour asked the other Nobel prizes, in chemistry in physics and so forth, because it is now. One of the original. No, oh prizes and was create many years later. There are always those people who can They are therefore not equal official Nobel Prize it. It's technically called the Bank of Sweden Prize in economic sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel. So whenever anybody rights so and so won the Nobel Prize in Economics. There's always one or two people out. There is a well it's not really a Nobel prize. Can you just addressed that head on for a moment? Should we care that it's not one of the official original prizes? You know, I think much. Everyone would agree that this is the most prestigious prize. There is, worldwide and Economics
probably the most prestigious price we have and social sciences more broadly in the world, and you know, part down the respect that that this price carries with it has to do with the fact that we are part of the Nobel Prize Believe you know residing that. The reason why the Nobel, if but the Nobel in Economics is the most prestigious price is not because we pay the most money, because there are other prices around the world that are rich hearing in dollar terms, but I think it's because the rigour in the selection process that we apply, Alfred, no bells will designated which institutions would be responsible for conferring which prizes, the prize in medicine or physiology, would be chosen by the Karolinska Institute, prestigious Medical University near Stockholm. The literature prize would come from the swedish academy. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded by five percent maybe that is elected by the norwegian parliament, only Nobel Prize,
not a in Sweden. Why is that? Even the Nobel Peace, this committee does know for certain. Why Alfred Nobel wanted it that way. One reason may have been that Sweden had a deeper milk mystic tradition and Norway, which maiden we're way the more natural place to deploy a peace prize. The Nobel prizes in chemistry in physics, were to be conferred by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which would also become the decider of the economics. We are closest to the prices that are in physics and chemistry, which are the two other prices that are given out by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Was modeled on those prices and we follow the same type of procedures. Then talk for just a minute, a little bit more about, creation of the prize in economics who is behind it? What was the impetus for the origin of that prize in eighteen. Sixty nine. Basically, wasn joint initiative by by the central bank at the time and the governor of the central bank, but there were always
A group of economists at the time that they felt that economics was coming and important than and rigorous topic and sort of worthy of of this type of price. Now it doesn't surprise me that economy, send the economic some enough fraternity would want to have a prize that was part of the Nobel family, an institution with their reluctance by the Nobel family or institution, to accept economics, and perhaps it was proposed years before one thousand nine hundred and sixty nine was there resistance. It took a while to overcome. So I don't know whether there was it was proposed earlier and there was resistance, but I think it's fair to say that you know there are still some scientists and researchers and other professions that may be kind of, look down on on the economics in general and may be social Sciences even not feeling that that's a real science? But you know,
at this time. I think the vast majority of people involved in the Royal Academy of Sciences are proud and and in favour of this price. I could imagine that define a serious academic psychology, researcher or sociology researcher anthropologist or what not, even though you do Kay, usually cross over borders. I could imagine feeling very low do you know? Physics? I understand Chemistry I understand were dealing hard signs is, but once we get into the Social Sciences either why don't we have? Why don't you have more like four psychology or why don't you have a prize for social side? This is instead of just economics. I think, is a good point. You're making I mean One may clear, though, that the prices and what we call economic sciences, so I'm playing with words here, but the economic Sciences formally, you know them The way we at least in our interpretation in compresses, basically all social Sciences, to the extent that they are dealing with economic issues. So in principle, that means that we
give em prices in and have given prices more in political science sociology psychology, three and so on. You know, as far as the subject matters or pertains to to economics, but that TED. I guess economics is sort of in somewhat imperialistic discipline and we have we have become the strongest of the Social Sciences. I guess it was natural that that the price started there it be true as Scrambridge says that the prize started in economics because it has become the strongest of the social science is, but it's worth asking. How much did the Nobel Prize Help economics become this our strongest social sciences just imagine if so Ology or political, and had been granted a Nobel Prize way back in eighteen, sixty eight, maybe they'd, be the strongest as restrain point about how imperialistic economics has become that's her
arguments on this programme alone. We ve heard about economics being used to movies more suspense phone, we view the construction of suspense and surprise as basically to Molly economizing on a scarce resource to change our eating habits. If, if says says, he's gonna go on a diet next week, it goes on a diet next week, even how to modernize organ transplantation. Grandpa tell me again: you used to cut the organ out of her dead person, and so it into a sick person and met with modern medicine. Those voices belong to Jeff early on Suspense Richard sailor on Diet and Al Roth on organ transplantation. Our off in fact one another prize for his work. Richard sailor may get one some day for his help, creating behavioral economics. But of course no one can say for sure that will be decided by people like perestroika
he is one of six primary members of the Economics Prize Committee. There also for associate members were consulted for their expertise, committee. Members are elected for a three year term and conserve up to three terms. Now the committee turns out to be only swedish speaking. People which made maybe a little bit bizarre from a prize, and this is important, but but you know that sort of their weight spin establishes way. The prices works in olden minutes and in discussions, since I want are in Swedish, argues that sort of tough luck. But aren't. We have one Norwegian who works in Sweden. The speak swedish in the committee tore Ellingson, who happens to be the chair. Actually committee how'd you get on the committee pair. I was asked their say? What do you call it? The nominating committee, that is supported by the Royal Academy of Sciences and they come up with proposals and if the economy this is a good idea. They ask that person
I don't know how they how he did. The debate was before I was asked, but noble Our committee members, dont, do a lot of media interviews and the particulars of the selection process are intended to be kept secret. All sealed for fifty years stronger made it clear repeatedly that our conversation? Certain lines could not be cross. Yes, I'm getting now close to things that are bordering the confidentiality I am under. Unfortunately, I dont want to delve into bordering dangerous territory. Maybe I'm gonna disappointing here, but all the deliberations that take place in the oh dear, and the discussions and so on are also covered, she has her not allow due to talk so much about what happens, because the economics prizes,
relatively young we haven't pass the fifty year. Secrecy limit uneven its earliest winners, but we can share some details about other prizes a few years to go. It was revealed that J R token was nominated for the literature prize by his friends Cs Louis, but one, no, A jury, member thought, tokens writing had not quote measured up two story telling of the highest quality we ve learned that John Steinbeck, who did when the literature prize in nineteen sixty two was nominated eleven times. Games before winning going all the way back to nineteen. Forty three. When it comes to the Nobel Peace Prize, things tend to get really polluted. Mahatma Gandhi never won the prize, but as we learned after the fifty year limit past, he was nominated twelve times some respect. It is that the norwegian juries of that Europe were loyal to Great Britain and apparently ruled against Gandhi, because he implicitly represented a critique of british colonialism. Others have said the Nobel Committee: didn't we
increase Hindu Muslim friction. Just this year. The former secretary. Of the norwegian Nobel Committee Guerre Luanda stud published a book called the peace secretary. The current committee says that Linda Stud has broken Nobel confidentiality rules on several recent prizes in the book. Linda, stand accused of former Peace Prize Committee, member who also happen to be the former norwegian Prime Minister of being quote disorganize. As having quote surprising holes in his knowledge and for letting journalists no ahead of time who would win. Linda stud also gave some insight into selection politics. One committee member, he said, was dead, set against Al Gore receiving the prize for his environmental campaigning, one potential winner, the weapons
spectre. Hans Blinks was passed over on the grounds that it might upset the american government according to Linda stud. As for the Nobel Prize in Economics, well, despite the obvious limitations, we will give it our best shot to learn how the selection process works. The job of Paris Strasbourg Committee is to propose winners to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which has the ultimate, though the academy has six hundred and fifteen members. A majority vote is needed to declare a winner for the prize that is awarded each October. The process begins the previous September. Nomination forms are sent out around three thousand people, including academy members, as well as eminent university professors and former Nobel laureates. So there's a list of secret list of Bee
but you know prominent researchers and in economics and other social sciences around the world are asked to nominate candidates, and those combinations are due sometime in January. Some of these nominated is all send Struldbugs Committee brief reports in support of certain candidates. The committee also solicit its own reports. Strasbourg says this is when the most important parts of their our goal, is to keep on scanning. The field of economic science is, broadly speaking, so we we have our our secret book, basically where we can look at this stage. This is what people currently, in our view, industrial organization- and this is the current state of labour economics and so on, and to keep this up today. And we continuously send out these report basically scanning the field. So these are super helpful and and their sent to your really top people in these fields put a lot of work into these reports of this is probably our motion.
Orton ICE impact and those reports remain confidential for fifty years as well, correct exactly exactly so one ask about one particular so Sir Richard sailor tells me that he was ass many years ago to write a rope or use commission to write a report on on the work of Daniel Common and AMOS Durski, who not sure he was allowed to say that, but fine Cadwell problem not remove eyelids. Ok, I'm so! Ok, let's, let's pretended was okay for him to have told you now, The interesting thing is that failure at the time was was much younger than those guys. So the committee was going to people who have been influenced by the people, not people worthy the mentors. But what was in thing to me is this was a report that was commissioned in, I believe the midnight teen nineties and there. As it turns out AMOS Turkey tragically, died very young, but Danny Common.
Did go on to win the Nobel, even though he's a psychologist by training and a groundbreaking. What so I'm curious? How typical would that recommending report be a written by someone who is influenced by the people as opposed to a mentor of and b that far in advance What turned out to be a winning prize so, So the first question most of our reports- I would say we ask for a view on the field, Someone is an expert in the field, but occasionally, and especially when you're you know, a name is converging in a particular field like Daniel Common came up must have come. Army was before my time, but denied I presume, not the lot as as proposed Prize winner lobbies reports. Then we can solicit in a person reports on individuals, as we see from home in on the names now too on this, we would typically tried to get both.
You know cheerleaders, as well as critics, to get the balance picture. So it doesn't surprise me that if erode the reward, but, but you know probably was not the only one, and I guess that kind of report might in a little unusual in that this was a field or a sub field. That was new right. Behavioral economics see a young, I'm an exile. It's not like you guys, don't you know what finances or econometrics Right- and it's so interesting to me that would commission these reports kind of prospectively to learn to educate yourselves about what are the fields that are developing. Can you give the hint about what sort of fields or sub fields within economics or maybe they're within psychology and socio. And so on, that your committee is perfect the interested. In these days, I wouldn't
I can tell you that I basically is viewed the is it's not so much what we are interested in ass? What the profession, tells us they're interested in. So in terms that the reports in these fields, we basically try to just have a throw agree. Wide net ok occur. We make sciences and and and neighbouring feels, but the you ve come back to the nominations. Nominations are indeed very informative about. You know what the profession thinks and nominations are important because we cannot give a prize to someone who has I've been nominated, you actually but way. I view our job is: basically s aggregating. The the voice of the profession you know not really our views on what we think is hot them. What's not, but we really tried to catch,
get a sense, I'm ok, this is you know the top researchers in these fields. This is what they believe. So the committee can give the prize to someone You haven't been nominated. They also can't give the price is someone who's dead? The Nobel Prize is not awarded posthumously. That's why Amos first key homo certainly would have shared the prize with his long time, collaborator, Danny Common, didn't when the prize and maybe Gandhi who was assassinated, One thousand nine hundred and forty eight would have won a Nobel if you'd outlive the various friction surrounding his nomination. It was June when pair stromberg- and I spoke with the awarding of the Nobel Prize to Angus. Deaton was still four months away. The preceding six months, Strasbourg and the rest of the committee had been calling the nominations and research reports they receive from around the world early in this process created a long list of potential prize ideas and that lists typically mould let's say a dozen or so potential prices.
And then we divide these twelve price. Yes, let's call column that among ourselves in the committee and start writing. Basically, this terrific materials under the proposal to see whether its or holds up, keep in mind that, although the prize is awarded vigils, often more than one individual per year. It's usually the work itself, the breakthrough idea, that's actually being rewarded. That's what Stromberg means a prize ideas, and then we have meat, probably every four weeks throughout the M, and then we vote on which of these twelve proposed,
should remain in the game until the next meeting, in which ones are out the little a little bit like a reality shout and there you know now that you mention it pair. This would make such a good reality tv show, but I'm guessing you're not willing to share to let the cameras in Europe in these rooms area. Well, maybe we can take it and then release, as I thought only shows no kidding aside, so that sort of how it works and By now we have what we think is the best price for this year, but we obviously since we ve been working on twelve prices, straw d, the spring, we obviously have you no plan b, This is not popular. The committee's idea needs to be popular with the academy which, if you examine previous Nobel prizes in economics, seems to mean being at least a bit in sync, with a scandinavian view of the world measured a bit technocratic, maybe also somewhat humanistic. Last year, the french economist John to roll
one for his quote: analysis of market power and regulation in two thousand nine, the american political scientist, Elinor Ostrom, the first and thus far only female economics laureate share the prize with Oliver Williamson Ostrom was cited for her quote: analysis of economic governance, especially the commons, and while the committee insists that the prize is given for a body of work and not necessarily for work that intersects with world events, several of the recent prizes, in addition to two roles and Austrians, seem to speak to the causes and consequences of the great recession, the two thousand thirteen prized Eugene Farmer, Laura's Peter Hansen and Robert Schiller for their quote empirical analysis of asset prices. The two thousand then prize to Thomas Sergeant and Christopher Sims, for their quote empirical research on cause and effect in the matter.
Economy. As Paris, Strasbourg noted, while his committee steers the choice, its royal Swedish Academy of Sciences that ultimately has or to give the price the day we announce the they all make a prize and the memory of Nobel that is the day when the academy votes. So it's basically, we present the proposal and they votes and in a with, if they vote for our proposal, that's gonna be the thing that's announced that day now, obviously we don't take them by surprise at that point. So there's there's a whole process before that and actually one of the important steps is that there is it chapter of the Royal Academy of Sciences, which is the chapter four social Sciences, so we first present a proposal to the chapter four social Sciences they vote on, whether they want to support this proposal or not that happens in September. I sand things go badly enough if there is resistance to apprise or something like that, we we should know that some have some leeway for some time before
the October vote, has there been such is in recent memory, even long memory, where the nominating committee put forward a proposal and the Academy of Sciences Committee said no, we don't really like the options you have given us go back to the drawing board, yes getting now close to things that are bordering the confidentiality. I wonder, unfortunately, that's the border we wish to cross so go ahead in exactly well. If you do another show in fifty years, you can you we can make it. But you know, let me let me put it this way that there is usually you know, interesting and constructive discussion when, when You propose these price coming up on economic radio an interesting and constructive discussion with Steve Levitt. Who knows more than a few? Nobel laureates, we said if one evening about prize keeps me: playing golf in the morning. I consider the worst that ever happened to me and if you want to hear
some past, and perhaps future winners check out the full archives of economics. Radio you can hear the afore mentioned the economy and in the episodes called a hundred ways to fight obesity and how biased, as your media in here I'll wrath and make me a match, everyone of episode is available for free in the Itunes Podcast store, where you can also subscribe, or on for economics, come the Nobel Prize in economics, technically, the Bank of Sweden Prize and Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel was just awarded to Angus. Not everyone loves this prize. It wasn't one of the original prizes designated and Alfred Nobles will, just, today? One member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which votes for the winner argued
to be done away with, as the study of economics leads to corruption, but least among economists, the prizes pretty popular and comes with a cash ward of roughly one million dollars? So how do you get one of those babies for yourself? The first step is to become an economist, although occasionally political, scientist, war psychology- will win the prize. You then have to compile a body of research that a handful of swedish gatekeepers consider world class. You also better be patient. This is not a prize for young people. We by necessity, will have to see more Evelyn some of the long lasting impact before we can give the price at pair
Stromberg a member the committee that awards the prize. He makes the point that, although the prize is often given for research done, while a winner was young, the prize comes only after the research has stood the test of time. Accordingly, the average age of and Economics Nobel Laureate is sixty seven, but, as noted earlier, we can't be so old as to be dead since the prizes not worded posthumously, Steve Levitt, my Freakonomics friend and co author is an economist at the University of Chicago he seemed quite a few of his colleagues win. A Nobel Rodger Myerson and Jim Hackmen am Lars Hansen would be couple of the people who won the Nobel Prize since I've known them and what kind of ideas do, you believe, are considered most valuable within me economics, for when you. How important a virtuous. Let's say: do they need to be so Generally, I tat most people who won the Nobel Prize have
had ideas that have radically changed the way future economists we're going to think about problems. What's often funding, though, when they have to characterize what the ideas for its trick for the news media to try to make sense of an often the one line. Blurb of why someone win. The Nobel Prize will be something completely absurd, like he made it clear. Two other economies that, when you don't have please information. You sometimes make bad judgment and it deserves interest to me, ideas are hard to come by and in ideas are often too obvious ex post dead to summarize them in one sentence for the public. You wonder how in the world could this guy I've gotten a Nobel prize for it, but the details, often the hard part and substantially- or let me just ask how have use observed that winning the Nobel will change the economists life and maybe the light of those around him. I really
We haven't seen the Nobel Prize Change people's lives much, and I think the best example would be my my good friend Jean Pharma Hand Jean. I play golf most every weekend in the morning and when Jeanne won the Nobel Prize, he was there first Ma Am golf tea time, the next Saturday, I said Jane. I didn't expect to see you and me said. If one is about prize, keeps me playing golf in the morning. I consider the worst thing that ever happened to me and so for gene his goal was to change as little as possible. I think for most of the people who were the Nobel Prize by the time they win the Nobel Prize. They are so prominent and so well equipped to do what they want to do. If they more or less just keep on doing exactly that, they just do it with little swagger in their step and a little more excitement and a lot more Boeing by the people who who they're talking to
And what do you know about the selection process? Do you, as an economist, choose to try to find out how it works? still remain wildly oblivious to. I think almost no one on the planet, no less about the selection process for the Nobel Prize than I do the only way that I have any idea that its Nobel season is that there is a whole set of people. Professional economics of really our set of people who think thought about winning the Nobel Prize and who plan their calendars around, which the Nobel Prize and the windows Belle season is at around Chicago Alot of people tend to get hair cuts in the future a leading up to the announcement of the prize until it. If I see all my colleagues with a short while contain here? I know that the press, let's be somewhere right around the corner, so does the average would be restored. Have a sense that he or she will win the prize hard to answer that humbly at Stanford.
I'll Roth, who, along with Lloyd sharply one a Nobel in two thousand twelve, For the quote, theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design. So knew that I was on the big list of people who, if I want a Nobel prize it wouldn't the Nobel Committee to be embarrassed newspapers, the next day, would not say craziness instant, but but there are many many people in that category, so indeed we had. We were sleep, we were not waiting for a call and it's an interesting call because one of the things they are concerned about. They have a lot of experience with this. Convincing you that it's not a prank, so the person who first spoke to me said: congratulations, you Bondman about Nobel. Many said, can I'm here with six of my colleagues and two of them know you and they're gonna talk to you now to persuade you
This is for me I'll, write you a letter of very elaborate prank, exactly Angus deepen this year's winter had similar experience curious at a press conference on the day he one so am my colleague and wife here up a phone, and I think I picked it up almost the same time. There were some very swedish voice, which is almost enough I would like to speak to professor anger, stating who there is a very important telephone call from him forums for him from Stockholm, so that I have. Good idea what and then they said some very nice things about me, which is very nice and then they were very keen to make sure that I did not think it was a prank. And I dont know whether this is common.
I've never had a prank phone call telling me and of course, as soon as they said that I thought, oh, my god, maybe there's Paris, Strasbourg was one the people on the other side of the line this year with Deaton, and also a few years ago, with Al Roth astronomer, recalled what the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences voted to give wrought the prize, the commit Members got into a room and had so much and we sit down the whole committee plus the Secretary the Royal Academy around too big? whether you know speaker, foam and start calling. So there's. Stop a process in trying to find you know once we decide on these prices are the proposals at least to dig up phone. Which might not always be so easy, and you know your if you're on the West Coast, its nine time difference if we do this at noon sometime and that could be in the middle of the night and California. Obviously, now AL told us that to convince him that it wasn't a prank that yeah,
You told him right off the bat. The committee told him that there some people he knew in the room whose voice oh yeah, exactly exactly so to be gay. The committee is reasonably well connected, so someone in the committee will have met the lorry at them, though the lorry little bit beforehand, but if we don't, then we actually usually it's another economies that knows the laureates to be in their nation, you know, tat the bit and to make sure it's not the prank call not when he told me that I had to think that would be one of the cruellest pranks you could ever play. I had one of the exactly heavier than you think it's ever happened. I heard about it, but now you're giving people idea and describe what it's like. It must be a wonderful thing to be able to make. That call is one of the most
gratifying moments. Of this whole process is too to really make this call, and here the reaction of the laureates and so on it. It is quite amazing actually and what feel like to have so much, and I want to say power over someone's life but winning a Nobel it real, It changes the trajectory of your life. So can you just talk for moan about what it feels like have that kind of ability. It carries a huge amount of responsibility. Obviously, after having been in the committee for a few years, the thing that this impact need the most is actually the process. You know that I keep on repeating hit that, but with the nominations with the reports with a If we do, it really mean, the process very solid, which also at the end the day? I think everyone feels gonna comfortable with these prices that we propose that doesn't feel like
this makes it says you, but it doesn't feel like you have so much power at the end of the day, because the progress the process is really the assets is really the power exactly so. I've talked to some economists to detect, or at least believed that they detect a sort of pay, You know there's a near a finance prize every decade or so the same for econometrics you throw into a game theory eyes once in a while. Even behavioral economics now entered the mix. So how much emphasis does the committee put not only rewarding fields our newer or have coalition? by now Russia in also rotating it, to keep things interesting, and maybe you noticed for something as simple as making a splash in the wider world. I think, at least in part, this happens kind of automatically. Due to the process, we ve well, because you know when we we started with a prize is typically yet we have a topic. Let's take the final prices, an example okay, so we had been investigating a surprise
missing an empirical work and asset surprising for quite some time, because had emerged. As you know, one people doing reports and financed at did come up. As you know, the most price worthy thing, so that, it, means that once we ve given the price in two former Schiller Handsome they're, not lot of candidates, you know natural prizes waiting. Right behind them right, because we ve kind of a case of this was the important year. What people believed was the most important contribution in this field. Right so then, very natural. Let you move on for the next year to a different fields. I think it's part of it is that, but then you know it that probably I dont know how kind of deliberate to this, but I think also the way things just turn out. Is that If you been working very hard on the particular area for a year, you feel little bit exhausted had predicted area, which means that that that's also Canada, I think, gives rise to a natural cycle.
But does not that we follow an explicit rules when a sub field or an area of economics gets more popular, so behavioral economics which I've been fascinate by four for a lotta years and therefore is thrilled to see Danny Common win the Nobel Economics for it It's really gained momentum in the public sphere in ending in the governmental sphere, and there are books Sailor has published a book misbehaving on it. Condiments book thinking fast and slow really opened a lot of eyes around the world, and I'm curious is popular. Position tend to work in favour of field that the Nobel Committee may be considering or against it. I think it's irrelevant think about popularization you outside of academic circles quizzes, it is very much about academic contributions and the view of the academic. Unity? So, in some sense, if it really is not a decision variable between we'd take much much notice. The John Bates Clark Metal
which is the very prestigious american Academic Economics Award, used to be every two years awarded now it's every one year, but still it's considered a sort of a junior nobel I've ever looked at the car, Action between Clark, metal winners and future Nobel winners as it is strong as we think well. Actually, I don't have to ask me: can you calculate the correlation right and you will find that it says ignore Ghent and well. The only thing I don't know is whether recent winners, especially as its expanded to annually, stand as good a chance of winning Nobel winners who won the clerk. Graham, let me answer it slightly different question which, as you know, that I think he can makes and social Sciences and in general or may be that their little bit more complex than than say some of the natural Sciences, because it take some time before you know how fundamental contribution limits. There's like a longer lag between then predicted
research. Studies done We actually know whether this wasn't it. Orton finding with long lasting impact and give Lee. I think the John Bates Clark, metal will naturally have a shorter lag, because you give it to The new programme economists below the age of forty right. In two thousand three Steve Levin was awarded John Bates Clark, Metal, which is conferred by the American Economics Association, was cited for his quote. Pioneering empirical research and for confronting important questions in the economics of crime and political, I love it now. If I were to ask the average high quality economists, someone perhaps has already won the John Beats clerk metal. Someone like you, perhaps what he thinks of his prospects are her prospects to win about present economics. What does that person? You, for instance, say so almost EMU
time to talk to. You will say they think their own likelihood of winning the Nobel Prize is really love, but I think that's not what most people, really think about their chances, and I remember one person who won the Nobel Prize and he, like all the other winners, acted so surprised and and couldn't believe he had won the Nobel Prize and at the press conference his daughter was invited up onto the stage after he had just said. We know what an amazing honour this wasn't. He couldn't believe it happened to him. He had never expected it and they asked the daughter well, what do you think of of your father winning the Nobel Prize, and she said well, thank God. He found when the Nobel Prize, he complained bitterly every single year that you nothing when it and finally won't have to have a conversation that they didn't Tipp. The Nobel is among the highest profile prizes in the world. The academy awards the Oscars are also pretty
deal in that case movie studios and producers, often lobby openly for the price. I was curious if the same thing happens with the Nobel Paris Strasbourg So I must say I am, and maybe this is was maybe a little bit pricing to mean, but surprisingly, little explicit lobbying to us in there in the committee. Maybe it's because we're gonna know bodies and no one knows us very that they apply so last question for you, parent. Let's say that I want to win your prize. Ok, so I'm not personally imam economists, but I do I q collaborate with one Steve level. Then the clerk metal Chicago and we are bunch of books about economics and we making a look we're making this weekly we're bringing exe next to the whole world via this podcast. So what do I have to do to get your prize? Can you help me I'll keep on
we're good work and her good work and then we'll see if you have enough long, lasting impact on the field and the outside world to merit the price. Ok, better. Back to my work, on next week's for economics. Radio, let's say a pharmacist has a what do you think she or he? will choose the name brand. Bear aspirin or the much cheaper store brand, thereby enlarge. Take the storeroom in the context of headache, remedies about nine Two per cent of that they remedies, farmers aspire, store brand. The rest of us spend up to billion dollars extra each year, just on brand name, headache medicine. Is this a triumph of marketing or something more when, the time to go generic college education- maybe that's next time on for economics, radio,
freedom of radio is produced by W and my c and W productions. Today's episode was produced by Gregg results, be our staff also includes ervic under Christopher Worth Jake, how it merit Jacob cash on the highway Caroline English and Allison Hockenberry, and soon you can hear economics radio on public radio stations across the country make sure your station would be carrying it and if you want more for economics, the books, the blog side projects and so on, you can visit us at for economics, dot com. You can also find this on Twitter, Facebook and don't forget, subscribed to the spot guest on Itunes or wherever else you get your free weekly. I guess
He then Stephen doubly again one more thing. If you like the episode, you just heard, we think you'll like something else. Fr Economics, radio network, look for this interview on the new podcast people. I mostly admire with host Steve Level, but my guest today Sue bird. She collects championships she's, or W Nba championships. Five Euro league, asked about championships too, see a championships for international best A federation world cups in four limping gold medal I would think that, in order to be the player you are, you would have to be a person who acted gets better, under pressure rather than worth. Well. Obviously, there are people
who are known for hitting big shots or her known for playing, while in big games that exists for sure, but I think we kind of frame it there why it's not that you're gonna make nine out of ten. It's that you might make three added, but somebody else is making zero. And whose most successful it's like who's the most. Successful of the least successful. That is people. Mostly admire. You can find it on your favorite podcast app subscribe now, so that you don't miss Single Epps hey there, Stephen dubbing again, one more thing if you like for economics, radio, I think you'll also like the latest episode of people. I mostly I'm the podcast hosted by my free economic, spreading co, author, Steve Levin. Here's what it sounds like Oh my guest today Sue bird. She collection championships, she's, fine,
W Nba championships, five euro, the best about championships too, and see a championships for, International Basketball, federation, world cups and four olympic gold medals I'd love to talk about the economics of professional basketball. So the average air in the NBA made eight point. Three million dollars into the nineteen in the W Nba, the average with eighty thousand is frustrating just now. I think. Actually, If you look at twenty twenty, our minimum is now higher, but we, I'll put in the same amount of work. So is it Our goal swallow knowing that somebody else's work being rewarded at times by I live in reality, I understand business and economics. Some people look at us like charity, like all, will help them out like an it in a terrible away, sense, not unlike this business investment way and if they do look at us
as an investment immediately its talked about how we don't make money and it's like fifty years the NBA did either, but people are willing, make that investment get behind in growing people. I mostly admire you can find it on your favorite podcast, app
Transcript generated on 2021-01-30.