Friggin, I'm afraid you sponsored by stables, staples, helps small businesses print big the printed advisers at staples swept the details and quality of every project. That's what they call the prince Big promised. They are committed to getting your print job right every time to treating for small business like a big deal and making it come to light and to giving you expert guidance from start to finish and now get twenty percent off signs. Banners and posters. When you spend seventy five dollars or more at stake offer ends January First Economics, radio, sponsored by state form as a small business owner. You worked hard to build your business, and our friends at state farm can help protect what you ve built sees every site. Farm agent is a small business owner, just like you, so they understand the value of your hard work and how to keep your business protected, because at state farm being good neighbour

more than a slogan, it's a way of doing learn more at state farm dot, com, slash, small business like a good neighbour state farm. Is there Hey there, Stephen Dublin earlier this year we added a new show for the friggin, I'm afraid your family called for Economics, MD hosted by Bob Eugenic. He is a medical doctor and MR does lot of fascinating research, so you can see why that's a good fit for us. You can get free, can Madame DE where'd you get for economics, radio and I'd suggest you go. Do that right now, just hey. You need a little convincing today like to play. You an episode of for economics empty this one is covered nineteen and what you might call the birthday effect. It is based on a paper that bottom CO author it and was published by

Emma internal medicine. But before we get to the episode I wanted to check in with boo on a related matter How are you today? I'm do aware yourself good thanks, I'm calling, because I wanted to pick your doktor brain for me. I'm sure you ve got friends and family always asking you medical questions, but if you don't mind, I have one more: can a billion church for this are no? No ok, go it s fun, so here my question for economics, radio, traditionally as a holiday party. Last year, first year of the great cupboard can we didn't have one this year we are. A decision was made to have a party up at it. That way, because I was not the decided later and I'll be honest with you. I am not.

feeling great about it. Ferko. Why wasn't I invited his party? Were you really not a mandatory holiday party? Not I was invited. I can't make it I was invited now you can't make it because you live in Boston. Presumably that's right. You know I've got to young kids, who would be hard, and I wish I could be there, but it's not covered that keeping me from their it's really the distance. So is a thing. I wonder if we're being idiots for having this party, because when you about risk and reward. Obviously there are vaccines and every one at this party will be vaccinated, but then I am concerned that those people Many of them were younger people will go home to parents and grandparents, and I feel deeply conflicted about this wonder if you have any advice for me here. I am artie we're facing the same dilemma ourselves. Our daughter just turn. Seven this month and we were deciding whether or not to have a tea party and how because you just got vaccinated and wanted decide it was decided, I think the languages is it was decided so

You and I are basically in the similar situation- we're getting pure pressured into hosting an attack a party that we might not be so enthusiastic about yeah. You know what we're gonna do is organised make the tea and prepare some stuff inside and then try to do. The eating outside with mass down our goal. So my concern about our party is its being held in a restaurant or bar wurtz. Inevitably inside and we are always make decisions in life there is risk, there's reward not worried about me getting sick and dying of covert alone. You know I could, but I am here. About community spread. I do also wonder if I am falling prey to what people like you called the recent see bias. I learned that a couple of family friends recently died from covered both fair the elderly, but be no, not that old. So do you think the recently of those deaths is maybe skewing my decision making on this party

and I add one more integrated and I've heard of holiday parties work related, not my own, but others where everybody is required to be vaccinated and in there are still cases that emerged. Subsequent to that, so I mean there is a risk. I think it would be incorrect to say that there is no risk. I guess for me personally. I dont like parties that much and so the reward of up already doesnt quite rise to the admittedly small risk. Every nook agreed everybody from outdoors. Oh just you could be the bouncer. Basically, it's really good idea say more about that were also for small you'd have to put on about sixty pounds. You stand outside and just you know airship everybody's hand as they walk in and you ll be good nice. I like that idea. You know I talked to another colleague, very smart woman. I said to her. You know my concern is not for my crew per se. or for myself, but that if someone goes home to their family, for

holidays away. We saw the big spike last year with covered nineteen and gives it to some parent or grandparents, who is maybe on vaccinated and they die. I would feel bad about that and this person said to me skews my friend. She said you know what, if they're, not vaccinated, a bit taken aback by that position. But how about you you feel about the school of public health policy. I think that in this way I dont want people to make bad decisions, unhealthy decisions, if they're not informed about them or if they dont understand the issues and that probably is partly the issue early on the pandemic. Where you know, there's questions about vaccine. How how safe was gonna, be? How effective would it be? Oh

the time we get to a world where information or lack of information really isn't the problem. But it is the belief system. People have different believes that maybe other people would disagree, but I am certainly willing to say that people should have autonomy over the decisions as long as we have done our job of making sure that their infer sounds like you are suggesting that we have the party and I attend the party is that all Lee your friend, Slash doktor, suggestion Babo yeah, that be my suggestion. I would absolutely go in person if I knew that everybody had been vaccinated. I feel even more comfortable if people were testing before so we should or the possibility of administering a rapid test before he s yeah and there really available right. I mean people probably have been home. You could just ask them to do it. Are you happy Happy nowadays I wish you were coming the party I know I wish I wish us all right, hopefully next year and now, Baku

We are going to hear an episode of your show for economics emptied. This is an update of one of the very first episodes originally called covered and the birthday effect from the freak radio network, welcome to freak in empty I'm Bob Eugenic, I'm a medical doctor, but am also an economist and in each episode they set an interesting question at the sweet spot between health in economics. Today, what birthdays can teach us about how safe it was at the start of a pandemic together with the people we know and trust. so like I was Stephen, my daughter turned seven this month,

this is our second birthday during the pandemic that clip of our celebration. That's from last year when things were still pretty locked down, and it felt really important to try to make our daughters birthday special, but it just feel safe to have friends and family over so we did. The next best thing check examines what I go. I saw that the name I'll stick with, but your majesty incised warriors are. We gonna magician named tricky TIM to perform a virtual party yeah on soon, this guy was a lifesaver for us, but he was hard. A book he'd been busy. I'm telling you I have never seen my daughter laughed at heart. Ever I mean like a fool on barely laugh at the kind of laughter where you're laughing so hard, I'm not even sure that oxygen transfer was happening at that point

So shear. I learn something new. It's actually possible for a party to be fun. The party that we have got me wondering, though, about the party that we didn't have one with all our friend celebrating at our house, and I couldn't help but think that other people out there may have made different choices, celebrated their birthdays in person with their friends and families, even as the word was basically shut down. New Yorkers here waking up to new rules, you'll find few people walking down SALT Lake City streets. I have ordered the closure of Chicago's lakefront. A law that was going on? We know that people were still gathering with others in their homes. Not everyone followed social, distancing and shelter and place orders the same way and as much as life slow down at it obviously didn't come to a screeching halt, even people who were being pretty careful. Like me, sir,

we had some interactions with others. Now it is true that big events like Weddings and graduation parties were postponed a lot in part because people were worried about large super spectre events, but lot of epidemiologists were also worried that a key driver of covert spread wasn't these huge gatherings, but small get togethers for these kinds of getting theres many of us probably found ourselves. Bending the rule is just a little bit, maybe for a special occasion with a few friends or family members. Maybe for a birthday I set out to work on a research project along with Chris Whaley Jonathan Canter. In May Para to see if we could find a measurable link between birthday parties and covered here is the idea if we find an increase in covert cases following birthdays. That might help us understand the effect of smaller group gatherings of any kind on the spread of the virus. The kinds of gather

the people that we know and trust, unlike go into a bar or restaurant, for example, and birthdays were actually ideal for a natural experiment. That's something I'm always on the lookout for as an economist. By the way, a natural experiment is winsome, thing in the world provides us with the kind of random innovation that we usually only see and randomize trials, no sign it was going to randomize people too small get togethers to measure the impact of those get togethers on Covid, spread that that wasn't going to happen. But here's my birthday is actually serve that role. First, literally everyone, a birthday as far as variables go that's about as universal as it gets, second birthdays- are random, you're not more.

Likely to be born at a certain time of year, if you're, rich or poor, democrat or republican from- let's say California or Kentucky. Third, unlike a wedding or graduation, your birthday in the birthplace of your family members are act we listed in some of your health data in that birthday data meant we had the chance to quit some numbers, some really big numbers we looked at a sample of nearly three million: U S, households with private health insurance, because these are insurance ADA we could see if and when someone received a medical diagnosis of covert nineteen

we could see that covered diagnosis came within a couple of weeks of when some one in the family had a birthday for each week. Between January and November of twenty twenty, we compared covert nineteen diagnosis rates between households with and without a birthday in the two weeks prior. So what do we find in counties with low covert rates? We didn't find any increased rate of infection in the weeks following birthdays that made sense, because overall transmission rates in those colonies were low, but then we let their colonies that were covered hotspots there. The likelihood of infection and a family actually increased by about thirty percent in the two weeks, following a birthday compared with those households in the same county, they didn't have a birthday during the same two week window in their birth

The effect was nearly three times larger for households in which a child had a birthday. It jumped from five point. Eight cases per ten thousand people to fifteen point, eight cases as a researcher with the data that we had available. I can't tell you happy why the effect was so much larger for kids birthdays, but as a parent, I can make some pretty good guesses. First, it's hard for parents to cancel a kid's birthday party right, it's a nice, thing to cancel for an adult and another reason: kid birthday. Parties might be more of a code risk. If you do have an in person birthday party for a child, it's going to be tricky to get the kids socially distance and where their mass and when it comes to order, Relatives who were at higher risk, especially grandparents. It may be hard to keep them away from a kids big day. now it's important to note that we did have information on actual birthday celebrations. Remember, there's no NASH! no database of who physically had a party in and who did.

we only knew what a family member in a household had a birthday but because Bert, is a random. The only thing that should we We explain why household with a birthday at higher rates of covert nineteen in the weeks following that birthday is that some fraction of those households celebrated with other people, and so how do we make sure that our finding, which was caught interesting, wasn't just random statistical chance and that the birthdays were actually the cause, We tested our findings by taking the same set of people and assigning each of them a randomly generated data birth. Basically, we picked a date out of a hat for each person and compare that fake birthday to the dates of any covert diagnosis.

your family, a when we repeated our analysis, we no longer found a birthday effect. There was no increase transmission of covered in the weeks following the fake birthdays, which made is confident that the birth, a fact that we had found was real economists call this a falsification test. It sort of an important way to kick the tires when you're watching data, we took a closer look at the data and a few other ways too, and this one might surprise you, the political leanings, of the county where someone lived, didn't, make a difference. The link between birthdays and covert nineteen was the same whether the majority of the people in the county voted for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen. It also then seem to matter if there was a shelter in place policy in effect, which makes sense, since these policies would have been kind of toothless to police smaller private social gatherings for good measure. We looked at the weather to. We thought that rainy days might drive people indoors more

It turns out that there is no relationship between rainfall during the week of her birthday and covert diagnoses afterwards, just ahead. Birthdays weren't the only way to save the effective social gatherings uncovered spread. What, if you're a college student during covered, living in a town where your school was part of one of the biggest competitions in college sports. actually sixty four colleges across the country. We're having giant celebrations and we hear from public health expert doktor benign beside you have to count on the full Then I'd everyone's gonna do everything you say: friggin strenuous sponsored by staples staples, helps small businesses print big. The printed advisers at staples swept the details, and quality of every project

that's what they call the prince big promises. They are committed to getting your print job right, every time to treating for small business like a big deal and making it come to light and to giving you expert guidance from start to finish and now get twenty percent off signs. Banners and posters when you spend seventy five dollars or more at stake, offer ends January. First, freedoms, radio, sponsored by Crowd Street Crowd Street the nations, largest online real estate. Investing platform gives investors like you, access to institution equality opportunities across asset class risk profile, geography and sponsor experience, create your account free of charge. And start building your personal, real estate portfolio online from Malta, family to self storage and senior living choose the deal's at me. Your own investment criteria, with more than five hundred

Ready closed deals and over two point, four billion dollars invested thousands of investors, have discovered how easy it can be to invest in real estate, with crowds learn more at crowd that dot com. That's crowd street that come if you for, self bewildered by this moment, where there's so much reason for despair and so much reason to hope all. At the same time, let me say a here: you I'm, as recline from here opinion host of the other kind show and for me, the best way to beat back that bewildered feeling is to talk it out with the people who have ideas and frameworks can sense of it from a decent Washington post. My time is editor in chief at box and now, as an opinion columnist at the New York Times, I've tried to ask the questions that matter to the people at the heart of those matters

like how do we adjust climate change? If the political system fails to act, has the logic of markets infiltrated to many aspects of our lives? What he's psychedelic teach us consciousness and in what is safe. I understand about our present that we miss this is the Ezra Poncho and there is going to be plenty to talk about you can find new episodes every Thursday and Friday wherever you get your pipe costs. before the vote. We learn that families and twenty twenty this was before the vaccine was introduced were more likely to experience a covert kay. In the weeks following a birthday in the household. If it was a kids birthday, the effect was even bigger. Why? Well? Islam? we family still had some sort of gatherings for their kids,

On the time we were working on our paper, another researcher was actually working on a similar idea, which was recently published in JAMA network, open, Madam's, Ashine downhill, Ashley as an economist at the center for healthcare delivery science at Beth, Israel, Deepness Medical Center in Boston she's, also research at Harvard Medical School, and she also happens that, like a particular college sports tournament March Madness, it's when sixty eight cows, basketball teams compete to be crowned the best in the country, though, for teams don't make it into the main racket and fans love trying to figure out who is going to make it through the rounds, including Ashley. A bracket area with my friends- I'm not very good at it, so just as you did every other year in March, twenty twenty one actually made a bracket and well it didn't turn out the way she had predicted. I had consortia eating Illinois and the final, and that is not what happened at all Illinois.

Ended up losing and I think the second round, so my bracket was completely busted. It turned out that Gun Zaga made it to the final but lost tubular. Eighty six to seventy What happened to Ashley is an uncommon at all. In fact, it's a pretty big draw the tournament its characterized by a lot of upsets, making the outcome feel pretty random, and I realize this way actually the perfect situation to measure gatherings the twenty twenty one tournament was held in Indiana because a covert nineteen, the hope was that a central location for the tournament would make certain logistics Like mass testing easier. There is still a lot of parties happening on college campuses, in other words, ass. He had a natural experiment. Essentially sixty four colleges across the country randomly we're having these giant celebrations so Ashley compared changes in Coburg cases, overtime and counties with the sixty.

Colleges that participated in the main march, badness bracket against those that didn't what did you find the main finding was that counties that had colleges that participated in March madness started to see significant increases in their Kovac three. Eight days after the final game by after the I know Game Ashley means after a team was eliminated from the torment with cases peeking around twenty four days after overall Ashley recorded as much as a twenty two percent uptake and covert cases in counties that had colleges participating in the tournament? What I lacked about Ashley Steady, was that it was clever and important. It reminds us of the power of needing to feel connected to others. Remember by March of twenty twenty one, the lies. A college student had been dramatic the altered for more than a year in that way for People

living in towns with colleges competing in the tournament march. Madness was kind of like your kids birthday. This is probably their first stop. Kennedy to really celebrate and be with their front so birthdays in March madness. What do we make of all this I asked active in our precise away in Minnesota, professor and epidemiologists by statistics at the University of California, San Francisco and I mean stood in oncology, medicine, health policy and pretty much everything in between researching other health research is actually one of his areas of expertise. Some people call that matter. Research matter searches really concerned about the scope, the quality and how research

is done and the incentives around research, full disclosure, Vienna, is an old medical school class bit of mine. He has been steeped in conversations about public health during the pandemic and one of the things that he's emphasised or the trade offs that every public health decision leaves whether it be closing schools, shutting down businesses or mandating master vaccines and so I ask, and I would he thought about my finding- that covert cases increased after people got together to celebrate of all things there. Birthdays it's one of those studies that makes you smile, because it's a clever approach to a problem. It is quite a convincing paper to me. There's a whole host of different take away. You could have one could be. You know, people are cheating, people are doing the right thing, the other could be as maybe we missed an opportunity for harm reduction philosophy. I ask and what our study tells us about human behaviour, if your goal is to have sort of a sustained and reasonable pandemic response to some degree,

have to count on the fact that not every going to do everything you say not ever is going to everything you wish they did. People are people, and I says remembering this simple fact may have improved our response to the pandemic. I think appreciating that people are primates and primates have needs, has to be part of any sort of public health response. when it comes to important life. Events like Charles Birthday people want to celebrate those events, and so the strict thing is to say you can't Do that another strategy might have been to say maybe they're ways you can do that more safely, so maybe a blanket order to stay at home or not gather matter. The occasion just wasn't realistic maybe now that we have the data on how risky even smaller group gatherings can be that'll help us make better decisions too, because I think our stay about birthday, gatherings and ass goddamn you study about March Band is both teaches

that we may not be as good at assessing the risks round us as we might think or hope? Most people would probably think that indirect, thing with others that they don't know like in a bar or restaurant woodpile. a greater risk, but small gatherings appeal. For that you know and trust could pose a different problem. We let our guards and a little bit more, I know I certainly have I mean I would wear a mask about went to the store, but you know I had a friend come over what it all have a mask on inside. I try to I don't know that I always did our but he also doesn't speak at all as to what good or bad right or wrong, but it does help us quantify the trade offs that exist. And is up to all of us to figure out what we do with a better understanding of risk. Speaking of risk a check back into Stephen Debenham. I was curious. How did the freak economics

Radio Holiday Party turn out Stephen us. God you're pretty good Papua. How are you good? So? How is a party I'm sorry I had to miss? It was turns out everybody missed it. We had no party this sounds like classic covered by. It appears that you would happen. Well, I guess you, I assume that we chickened out, even though your advice was, you know, take precautions have everybody tested, wasn't chickening out. We did follow your advice. I was ready to bundle up outside, like bouncer greeting well on the way and on the way out, I told you that Look for you would have been perfectly that role. I agree, but me back up a little bit, so the party was timed to coincide with the first day that all the crew on economics, radio, we're working in person together for the first time

in nearly two years, while in fact we brought in most of the people who work out of town, because during covert we did a lot of hiring in many people didn't work in New York, so we actually had what we're. going a summit which, in retrospect, of idiotic. Is the right word silly optimistic some. how many of those but we had us a summit. Lake Van I preside said we are primates, primates have needs, but then we did some sting a few hours before the party and lo and behold, I believe it was one of the first people who is tested. Bingo covered its ethical peak covert seminar is not the kind of some of the goat you want and

So, thanks to you, because we did tests before we shut things down, this poor person felt terrible. This person is still asymptomatic as far as I know, so that's the Good NEWS. We did have a second person test positive couple days later and that person is also ok, but you potentially saved us from having our own little for economics Super Spreader event, so I guess that outcome is better than it could have been. Well, that's crazy of surprise for Thanksgiving We had. My parents come in their order, my in laws, family friend, and we had a right s twice. They tested before they left their town and in a test them at the airport as us, picking them up you and everybody tested negative, but in a we took the precautions that I think the world is different now than it used to be, and we have the ability to test now some grateful that you did it. I'm really grateful to pay switch. As I told you, I don't like parties that much so you know I hate that it took covered to get out of the party, but I got to the party

It was also interesting to know that, because people were not so ask to being back in a place like the office. There was no set norm some people were masked in the beginning and some are not, and then some a judge to the others in one direction and then some to the others in the other direction, and I'd found that were still. in this kind of Tori, where no one Quaite knows what to do fully. No one knows quite how to behave or what to suspect or who to suspect- play, and so, at the end of the day, an actual test from a drugstore turned out to be a really nice yardstick that everybody believed the power of facts so Bob who, because of my potential exposure to this person, I'm once again quarantining sitting on isolated, I am taking rapidly

sudden. So far I am negative, but I've got plenty of time on my hands and you are continuing to put out these great episodes of for Economics MD. Can you give me a little sneak preview of your favorite upcoming upsets the other? two episodes that are coming up pretty soon. One is looking at the impact of retirement on your brain and the basic ideas. If you stop working, you see doing what you ve been doing for many many years using your brain in the way that you have at work. What happens when that switch turns off one day? What happens to your brain? I won't spill the beans here, but it'll be fun. so I'm guessing it's not good news. I'm guessing you're saying I should not quit my job anytime soon. You know you should ever quit, but it's mostly for the greater societal good that you create, as opposed to four years

and then the other one which is going to be really interesting, is looking at the politics of medicine, really in two ways. One is to figure out how politics affects the decisions that doctors make when they care for patients in a we take an oath to make decisions that are in the best interests of patients, but sometimes it's hard for us to not have our own belief, structures, preferences, ideologies, impact that care and then the reverse question is whether not medicine affects our politics and I'm gonna talk to former? U S Senator bill frist about that so he's the quintessential example of HU as a doctor first in and went into politics now, both those some really good. look forward to hearing those. I have to pass on some really positive feedback from a friend I have been listening to show who said that there's so much precision going round and so much a pining about things that we used to talk about in more factual terms, and now we talk about

a little bit more. You know this is what I believe to be true, and he said that it's hard to just ascertained basic facts. Sometime, of course with for economics, radio. It is sort of an exercise, in fact finding in putting those facts in context, but he said that he thought for economics. Md did extraordinary job of that, and it's not just saying this. True. This is not true. It's the way that you show your homework, its away, that you explain, Why? One might think a certain thing is true, but when you surrounded with evidence and analysis, you can get a little closer to the truth. In that The big advantage is letting the listener in on the process of learning. What is most likely to be true, and he just found that incredibly useful and inspiring- and so I just want to pass it along and say- thanks keep up the good work. And I'm really glad and proud that you're part of this a little for economics, radio, network banks, even a glad to be here,

Once again, that was a special episode of free, comics, empty posted by bottom Jenna. There's a new episode every week. You can listen and follow it on any podcast up and if you like it please leave her view or awaiting rating. It really helps new listeners find the ship coming next time on four economics, radio, especial episode one of the other new shows in the economic radio network, its people- I most We admire hosted by my for economics friend and CO author Steve Level, on this episode. Levitt talks to the deep really fascinating, Dj Miller about how should rethink death and dying. As I was preparing for this interview struck me that maybe dying should be a topic from the agenda in high school. What you think about that? Oh yes, rather free high school, we have sex. Death it seems to make sense. Death is even probably more final knows, what's more perfect of sex or death,

next time on the show, especial episode of people I mostly admire until then take care of you health, and, if you can, someone else too, FR. Economics, radio is produced by stature and ran, but radio. This episode was produced by Tricia, Bonita and married, Duke, whose mixed by Adam Yuppie, Elinor Osborne, Tracy Samuelson was the supervising producer. Our staff also includes Allison Craig Low Gregg Ribbons act. Levinsky Ryan Kelly, Rebecca we Douglas Morgan Levy, a material jasmine, Clear Europe, bout it and Jacob Clemente, the music for friggin unex empty and for economic radio is composed by Rui scare. You can get all the four connivance radio network shows on any pop cast up. If you want a transcript were show notes, go to freak anomalies that come as always, thanks for listening

Why don't I go to your kids birthday party and you come to our party I'll drive to Boston? Pick you up a play. Whatever music, you like to hear a pickup, whatever junk food you like for road trip, Would you be willing to do there? Absolutely what you don't understand, this ploy of mine was a way to get you to baby sit, and now I've succeeded. The radio network they head inside of every thing. Stretcher. If you find yourself bewildered this moment, where there's so much reason for despair and so much reason to hope all. At the same time, let me save I hear you I measure climb from here

arms opinion host of the other kind show, and for me, the best way to be back. That bewildered feeling is to talk it out with the people who have ideas and frameworks can sense of it from a decent Washington post. My time is editor in chief at box and now, as an opinion columnist at the New York Times, I've tried to ask the questions that matter to the people at the heart of those matters. Like how do we adjust climate change? The political system fails to act. Has the logic of markets infiltrated to many aspects of our lives? What he's psychedelic teach us? bout consciousness and in what is safe, I understand about our present that we miss this is the answer poncho and there is going to be plenty to talk about You can find new episodes every Thursday and Friday wherever you get your pipe costs. We did, it again

horizon, was just named America's most reliable network by metrics for the sixteenth time in a row, proving once again that nobody builds networks like horizon those numbers. That's why we're building fighting right? That's why there's only one that's network horizon best and most reliable based on route. Metrics. Second, have twenty thirteen point when you wanna pre operators and network types combined, nonspecific divide, Gina books.