Wasn't making sense by cast this is San Harris. Ok, we are willing December, hear the end of is upon us. I'm sure this is put you all and reflective mood has. It has made. Where did twenty twenty one go at really Like it was six months, long had best is amazing and has also been ten years since Christopher hit

and died. That anniversary has arrived. The fifteenth this month. Which, depending on when I release this, is either tomorrow or today. And that remains a loss. The truth is hit was really just hitting a straw And when I came to know him believe his book God is not great, was his first best seller. He was famous in journalistic circles but was really just connected with a wider audience. And then his memoirs was the last book there. He actually wrote his amazing short book mortality was a collection of his vanity, fair essays that came out after he died.

Well worth reading anyway. He is sorely missed in this post institutional time. Where I journalism and media and the ivory tower were really the whole class of professional commentariat has heaped shame upon itself with of hands, and that in part will yet again be the topic of today's podcast. It is maize to think of how good it would have been. In his intelligence at the twin horrors of trumpets, em and woke ism man. The pyrotechnics we would have seen on both sides of the political speck would have their amazing, hopefully some universe. That is happening. Anyway, I will endeavour to do my best with the tools at hand.

However, as you know, one of the things that lures my attention away from matters journalistic and political, Is what I'm doing over waking up where either it's been a development that has made me very happy of late. On January. First, twenty twenty two Amira two weeks away. We will be releasing the collected talks of Alan Watts. Watts was an extraordinarily lucid thinker and writer, and one of the most gifted speakers we ve ever had? I could be describing hitch. There has well platter, as many of you know, what's did as much as anyone. And probably more than anyone to bring Easter and wisdom to the west and the key the culture of the nineteen fifty nine nineteen sixty would be hard to imagine without him I never met. What's he do in nineteen seventy three at the age of fifty eight

leaving his library and the slopes of Mount Tam, O pious in Marine County, but in my twenties. Had nearly a hundred Cosette tapes of his recorded talks of which got lost in transit. When I moved back to count Warn you, but now all these hours of good company have been restored to me. Digital archive tat has been curated by Alan son Mark Watts- and it makes me very happy to present these collective talks on waking up. So look for that on January first there will be a great way to start a new year, and that is that by way of housekeeping today, I am speaking with Nicholas Christophe, as Nicholas has been on the palm cast a few times before. He probably needs no introduction. He is a physician and sociologist an expert on

network theory, a professor at Yale and a wonderful guide to the covert pandemic, about which he has written a book just out in paper, back titled Apollos Arrow the profound and enduring impact of corona virus on the way we live in set aside. We discuss the lessons we have learned, or so go to learn or should have learned from the pandemic. This point we discuss our failures to coordinate an effective response in almost every day, the politics around in the roll out of the vaccines vaccine, efficacy, vaccine safety. How to think about scientific controversies, the epidemiology of excess deaths Transmission among the vaccinated I immunity selection process and new variants, the failure of institutions, the lamplight hypothesis.

The efficacy of large towns seen: mandates, boosters what would happen in a worse pandemic and other topics anyway, the purpose of the conversation is trying to say somethin reasonable to those who are as yet on vaccinated as your head here. I am quite consciously providing a counter message too much It is heard out here in Pakistan and over there, and substantial Stan. I mean increasingly worried about term the appetite I have detected outside the gates of the mainstream media for contrary and takes on more or less everything. Generic word of caution to everyone with an earshot of this broadcast non standard, explanation, it is not always the correct one, even one

institutions have repeatedly disappointed us. In fact, the nonstandard explanation is still, I would say, generically rarely the correct one. So keep that in mind, as you listen to my fellow pie, castors discuss what they think is true or likely to be true in this universe of oars, and as this is at another p a say on this topic, there will be no pay wall, but if you value the work were doing here, you can support the podcast. By going to say Harris DOT, Org and subscribing ok without further delay, I bring you necklace Christophersen I am here, would Nicholas restock as Nicholas thanks for joint again, so thanks. So much for having me back so

you might be there the record holder this point on the on the pond Kazakh I've lost count. I've had maybe Paul balloon might be ahead of you, but TAT is you and bloom fur? Most frequent guests are third conversation on that's being recorded at least right right well in good company, so there's a lot talk about here. First, your book, Apollos arrow the profound and enduring impact of corona virus on the way we live just came out in paper back about six weeks ago, or so we're going to cover some of the themes in that book, because it among other things, I want to talk to you about the state of our Understanding and the state of our public conversation around all things covered vaccines, vaccine hesitancy, locked school closures, everything that that has happened

any missteps that review that we may think we have made in the last eighteen months coming upon two years, and I want to get some of the public service aspects of this conversation. Ass were loaded to the front for us here but before we jump in NAM, briefly remind people who you are, how how it you know anything about what we're back and talk about ok, so yeah, my for self extras getting really nice to talk you again. I am a physician and association just and I've spent at twenty years studying social networks. I study spreading processes and networks. You know I d is spread, how emotion, spread and, of course, how germ spread, which is its any. You know very profound metaphor for how thing spread. But it's not just a metaphor. It germ spread and some understanding how germ spread is very important, and I am so I ll have some training and public health in a pity me algae as well in and actually when the pen

make was coming on about a year and a half ago now, in January of twenty twenty, I became very alarmed about what was coming down the pike and decided to redirect a lot my efforts to study it yeah yeah, you ve, been you're, really have been on the short list of people who have been worth listening to low these these many months- We have been in this pandemic experience and I must They ever. I remain fairly mystified about the these sociological problem we face here to see me. Figuring out how to communicate about these shoes in a way that doesn't term obviously fail to solve some basic problems: of coordination and cooperation and pursue asian and they were just apart from the speed with which we developed vaccines,

have failed on so many other fronts that it's really a its. It is fairly the wilderness and depressing out of you shared out work. At this point, it's almost quintessentially our success on the technological front. You know that we did the vaccines and- and we'll talk about that. I'm sure, but it's also depressingly american in some ways, are our failures. I mean where things I think it's interesting to sit back for a moment and understand is that we are a rich and poor society in the twenty first century and we are a capitalist economy and we exchange goods and services

all kinds and in our society you can find any expertise that is humanly available. So when you need a cabinet made or your car repaired or you need surgery or are you need, you know a good detectives or military activities are basically any kind of domain of musicians. Artist, you name it. We have people who devote their lives to those different sorts of activities and we we pay for them. Right. We, when you have a plumbing problem, you you do not fix the problem or yellow or amateur understanding, so you hire an expert plumber and there's a famous saying. Sociology that one man's occupation is. Posed of another man's emergencies. So far for you, the plumbing thing, happens rarely in is a disaster. The United Europe, your placement is flooding, but for the plumber this is his or her You know usual course biscuits, and then you gladly give money to that person in a classic. You know, you know.

Smith kind of you know. Everyone has their own expertise and we exchange our expertise and we're all better off as a result, but my point in our society and after hundreds of years since the enlightenment, with you, know, advances in science. We have experts on every scientific topic, including respiratory pandemics, and what is happening to is not novel that there is an enormous wealth of knowledge about what is happening to us and about how optimally to respond and about the the epidemiology of respiratory pathogens and the biology of corona virus, and development of vaccines and an understanding of of the human body, the physiology unto the treatment of people with these conditions the organization of our hospitals and our public health systems, and we have thousands of people who have devoted their lives recordings expertise, and so it's a mystery to me. That we don't have belief deployed

like we would with any other activity and are in our capitalist society, in which especially odd to me is a different societies, have different strengths so, for example, the Chinese in aura authoritarian country with a collectivist culture and when, when Corona virus the pandemic began, they they deployed those attributes and did thing. That would have been impossible in our society and, frankly, things I wouldn't have wanted either effect, which included wealthy people into their apartments at once. Ass, I dont know us I mean I've, heard the same stories I don't know for sure their tool, but but functionally yes, what they did. They say they ordered nine hundred and thirty million people to stay at home for months and they enforced this and they tightly controlled messaging and so on. Now we thankfully, are not like that. We have more freedom. We have a free and open society

we have free press at, but we didn't bring our best game bring our strength to the battle we we have world leading scientists were leading epidemiologists, we have a media environment, which would have allowed for the you know, rapid diffusion of information and end, we kind of bungled it from the beginning, heart. A lot of that, in my view, is the fault of the previous administration, but it's not just the fault of previous mister we the citizen, we also have some responsibility for this fiasco so and I think it's pausing for your listeners to understand just a frame. What has happened to us cuz? I don't think people really get it yet honestly, is over seven hundred fifty thousand Americans. Nearly one million will probably die from this in the end when this, when the dust settles the excess deaths will be. A million of our fellow citizens will have died. Probably five times as many we should talk about. This won't die but will be disabled by me. Infection. Other

still. You saw long or short covered. They'll have survived the acute infection, but their bodies will be marked, they'll have pulmonary fibrosis, arenas, insufficiency or or neurologic or psychiatric problems, or so on these individuals. Our fellow citizens will need. Our care, so so million will have died. Five million will probably be disabled. We Larry Summers? A former treasury secretary and David Cutler up health economist at Harvard have called this. The sixty in trillion dollar virus. They they estimate that the law- to our society. Is sixteen trillion dollars, eight trillion due to economic damage and

trillion due to a loss of life and death and disability and and illness, death, disability and illness. This is a catastrophe that far exceeds the the great depression in its economic impact and and then we have millions of children that miss school. Ah, who will have been harmed by by does this and end and millions of of a people who are entering the job market during the pandemic and faced extra difficulties. Millions of firms that dub went by right, so I dont think people get it yet like this is a once in a century event and part of the reason I think they don't get it First of all economic, we are borrowing trillions of dollars from the future to soften. Blow right now, and because this Iris. While it's bad, it's not it's not smallpox. It's not Bubonic played open, even though a million Americans will die, probably the ten million will have known those people intimately

Maybe a hundred million will have known of someone who died, which still me the majority of Americans will get through this pandemic. Neither died nor having a loved one die, nor having known someone personally who died. So that's. Why part? I think we are having taken this is seriously as we as we should any other kind of calamity like this. I can't imagine we you know if we, if, if it the Russians have invaded killed, a million Americans decimated our economy. This way, I think we we standing up and paying attention so yeah yeah. Well, maybe if you had told me that we would more or less bitter ITALY sanguine about a million people dying from a disease, a disease that we had very quickly developed vaccines for an In that context, nearly half the country would decline to get these vaccines and

more or less ignore the fact that nearly a million people have died and even dispute, whether any like that, number had actually died and then fall into various conspiracy theories about the number of dead. Spain exaggerated, I dont, think I would have believed that would have arrived here, but it seems to me that's where we are and there's! No, we haven't just a correct one statistic. I don't think we have fifty percent refusing vaccines. I think it's closer to twenty percent or something like that, while twenty three percent of health care workers still refuse to convey said at last. I leave that truth still like that. I'm surprised by that, but I believe you I'm unite their lot, it's approximately The numbers are high and the general public higher than we would want, but there you know we should look it up if that, if the precise numbers important should look it up, so sixty percent of been fully vaccinate. Forty percent have not in that. Forty percent probably also includes chill

and who, for whom the directive has not yet been fully indicated. But anyway, regardless of the precise percentages and you'll get large fraction of our population still has not been vaccinate wishes to someone like me very surprising, so there's an opinion in that has solidified on the right politically anatomists. It appears at other points on the political spectrum. But as mostly on the right, I would say in it. It's also taken hold out any alter of media wilderness among pod, castors and substantial newsletter writers that Much of what has been communicated about covered by government and by the the mainstream media has amounted to really are oaks right in and then much of what we ve done and demanded that others do in response to a covert has been therefore unnecessary and and even on

ethical and so that everything from locked down to school closures, to mask mandates to the vaccination campaign itself to downplay the ethics c of ivory. Actin right, all of this has and done for sinister political motives and based on corporate greed, right What we have now is something that tens of millions of people at least believe that our entire response to basically everything we ve done for the last eighteen months or so has had the ulterior purpose of increasing social Control right any that, basically we get people. This is the express said, claim one hears from from all these quarters now that the whole purpose of this has been to soften us up some kind of orwellian acquiescence to state power

with respect to the vaccines, in particular its also being driven by interested the sheer profiteering motive of pharmaceutical companies. Now there many specific Well it not because of course, the vaccines are free to the citizenry, but anyway right, right or yourself, which you just unpick all of this, but minute that there are specific policies there. One could debate. Obviously- and I guess I'm at the moment. I think I'm currently uncertain about why kids in schools, where all the kids vaccinated are still wearing masks and you could wonder about the wisdom or necessity of vat and I'd like to talk about that kind of stuff. But it seems to me that this basic idea, which has again is infected These are not just uneducated robes who are who believe this and in this I am not talking about me- that the Cuban on called- although obviously this includes the Cuban on called panting about me people who are quite smart, you'd many

several friends and colleagues who have prominent podcast right have fallen. Into this paranoid picture of what's going on and you know they their extreme and points of this paranoia. Others. The idea that bill Gates is putting tracking devices into us with the vaccine premise of it. There is there. The crazy end of crazy, but it seems to me that this basic picture, even without the craziest flourishes that is more or less insane idea that we are dealing with something akin to the Chinese Communist Party here, and all covered. Related policies have been implemented. Merely a bridge, our freedom politically. That does like me, is patently insane he and some twenty. I will I, what do you think accounts for this kind of em? If it's nice is still affair, view, but it's a fringe view that I think something like a call.

The country has been taken in by what do you think accounts for its popularity? Well, I think part of the answer has to do with see what happens during times of plague and an atypical human response. I mean one of the things again, that's helpful as if it is to look at how humans responded to plagues for thousands of years and denial. And lies have been a constant companion to plagues. If you look at of accounts going back a very long time, you find them one of my favorite stories. I forgot which ancient plague it was. I want to see the plague of Justinian, which was about fifteen, years ago. There was an account by an observer that said that you, the plague, was death in the city, and you could. There was fear in the streets, of course, and that He. He observes that a rumour went out amongst housewives that, if they threw clay pots from the second stories of their houses onto the streets below that this would ward,

the playing, and so this observer says mocking the super, And he says it became or dangerous to walk down the street from fear of being hit by plots and then for a big infected, you'll, be getting the plague and I mean- exactly what we have now with people with crazy ideas about de jure or frankly, I reckon which, in my view, there's not anywhere near enough evidence to support its user hydrochloric when which also has the previous Iver backed. And let's not forget that, so we did lots of randomize trials to show it was not useful. So so so people don't want to be I believe that this eighth, a calamity of this kind, has happened that there, ordinary lives have been disrupted. Nobody wants to believe this. It's a little bit like it's like that. The Jews at the beginning, when Hitler was rising to power

many did not want. There were more and more and more Anti Semitism was rising and more acts of violence in these people. They lived in these communities, they had businesses, they had families, aid connections. If they'd languages and religious connections it spend their whole lives it. They didn't want to believe it right, and so it is, is difficult to accept that your your life is changing and and that this this is there and there has been a change. You know it in our environment. This this New Delhi Germ, is introduced into our midst. Circulating it's doing it's what it, what germs? Do it? No and dumb So so part of me understands the american response from the great sweep of history, but part of these also, like you baffled and if not enraged by it, because it is so immature, and it is, on scientific and it is, no unnecessary weak could have had a much better response

save lives- and I think I have said at our economy. Even more so for you, you know you mentioned it up the top, the role that you believe that the previous administration played here and I must say, Even the politics of that seem fairly can. Found into make us there was this moment where Trump seemed desperate to take credit for operation war, speed right into had to have us all think of the vaccines as the essentially the Trump vaccine. I dont know why, He didn't do not have a theory why? Why did he walk away from them? I think he didn't. Even acknowledge getting the vaccine himself in the enemy certainly didn't turn into a photo open and recommend that others do well. I think you

wasn't sure the backseat would arrive in time to make a difference in the election. So I think from Trump's point of view, the emergence of the pandemic. He correctly deduced that it would be a threat to his re election and I think his strategy in this man that Trump is not a very honest individual and I also don't think he took his duties to the american people sufficiently seriously. I think he was more selfish and more interested in his own. I think you know, I think, he's very narcissistic, so it was a threat. He took it as a personal threat and was interested in what was good for him. Now it was good for the country and what was good for him. He thought to pretend like it wasn't there and the UN and in theirs detailed account of this are actually given the books. I wonder surly rehearse it here, but but his tromp was ignoring and saying it'll go away, it will go away, will go away. He said when they were fifty cases in the USA that it will go away when there were five hundred cases. It will go away when there were five thousand cases, it will go away when there were fifty thousand cases.

Go away. He kept saying go way. There was no evidence, it was gonna go away. We now know that he was briefed answer rising, we, where the United States for the love of God we we have elite. Intelligence agencies and scientists working for the government briefing the president. He was briefed on what was going to happen and he chose to ignore it and This is one of the things I got me and non interest. I was interested in this topic when things are motivated me to direct the attention of my lab to this pandemic and also to up by public profile a little bit and write the book, and so on. Was that that someone interactions with covid. It actually began in January of twenty twenty. So I had this longstanding collaboration with some chinese scientists and we were studying using phone data. Looking at the mobility, the networks of people in China ascertain because of their phone calls

and studying things like will, what happens when you build a high speed rail line you're? How does it reshape if at all social interactions or economic interactions or what happens when there's an earthquake, for example in China, and so I had done, had been produced collaboration and we data on people moving through Han in January. When you, twenty in my a collaborators, and I thought well. We could use these days to understand this nascent pandemic, and so, as a result of I was born day and night beginning middle of January, to study what might be happening in China and therefore I aware on January, the twenty fourth of twenty twenty, that the chinese government has basically shut the country down and and I was also aware of some of the papers that chinese scientists were putting on line describing the basic properties of this pathogen in January and by February. Let's not forget, we had italian scientists doing the same thing when lombardy collapses and I did some base

calculations, that every competent epidemiologists could do and weakened customs, if you want, it was clear as day was gonna, be a serious respiratory pandemic like a once in a century event, and you- and I spoke- I think our second ever conversation, but our first about the pandemic, a camera exactly MA maybe something of an early the up. Something like that. A camera exactly- and I think I said you know from my desk- this looks bad and what surprised me was that that Pronouncements from the White House were soul, anodyne, and these they state, anodyne and I was getting really really concerned- and I thought to myself: how is it possible that I nicholas Christophe kiss you know Yale professor sitting at my desk appear to know more about. This situation than the present, the United States. This is alarming like and of course, we now know that that that was not true. In fact, the president was briefed and chose to it.

I think this is a grave dereliction of duty, because I think that the central function of the government is to keep the citizenry safe and and the fact that there was super spreading event in the White House itself, which is a national security threat, must not forget that give the whole apparatus had been decimated. That would have been a grave problem. Shows the kind of lackadaisical attitude that they had not only to the safety of the kind, but to their own safety. So you know, I know that other govern It's also did poorly, and this is an argument that often used an end to be clear. This is not just ass, they were, there were done credit governors who are also incompetent, for example Governor Cuomo. In me Large was so absurd things about the pandemic, and I was me and other epidemiologists were writing letter, to try to stop the Saint Patrick Stay parade and so on, which would have been nuts mare debate. He owes a democratic and saw in this, but we're talking here about the White House, we're talking here about the presence of the United States and

Oh yes, maybe other countries did poorly as maybe governors. Various states republican, undemocratic, poorly okay, but that doesn't excuse the utter collapse. Insane public policy in the White House in are sophisticated, I hope, rich nation. So, yes, I think a lot of blame can be laid now just to be clear and I think Trump perceived this. He must have been told look. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are going die, and that was clear and you- and I talked about that from the beginning and end that nobody it's, not that it's not a winning electoral opposition. Begin, and he probably thought will. Maybe I can just you smoke and mirrors. Until the election and so the vaccine. He probably at that and remember the vaccines arrived much faster than anyone, including me, expected. They arrive by

November we of twenty twenty, which has just miraculous wheat, we had clues at the vaccines, would work and they people start getting back say by December. So it was after the election year and you too late for him to frame the politics that way, but I Think if he had. I think you might have won the election honestly, What will the politics raffle here, because there was a, I think I ve our concern that, given trumps political selfishness, given that everything was being motivated based on what was politically expedient for him, oil? One didn't really understand how much he could then. Apparatus of the vaccine approval process too, his will. There was this period where it seemed like the vaccines were coming soon, perhaps in time for the election, and he was gonna, try to rush them out in time for the Elect, and now we have your video of all of these prominent democratic say,

The idea that they would be reluctant to take the vaccine- and this includes Joe Biden- Common Harrison Davy you get them on a microphone in twenty Twond before the election. You have them saying you I wouldn't take- I'm not sure I would trust a vaccine that came out that fast right, whereas Well, no, what my memory and you might be right. Yet this is not the sob and spread. Social media of late. As of now, it's basically campaign add for more trump ism. I remember thinking about an ethic I maybe even talked about on the pod causes, just if you thought that Trump could possibly get vaccines out sooner surface political ends, and thereby we would be cutting corners with respect to safety. Above all, that was something but were openly worrying about at that point yes and then went in and then when the vaccines came out after the election, there the whole thing flipped and you have democrat By and large saying, oh, these have been totally

van and you got from not taking credit for the thing he was desperately credit for a few months before you have it. I think that's a bit of a coincide in a misreading of the sequence of events, so nobody, he was saying we shouldn't rushed to get back scenes into the arms of people. At least I wasn't, that, but I and others were saying we don't want to cut corners, and I still agree that now it turns out these vaccines have been miraculously effective and miraculously safe. But there is a history of a bad things happening when you cut corners with drug approval and we have a conservative drug approval process in this country. Now we can debate and there is a rational. Document to be had how? Where do you want to set a cow conservative? You want to be when you approved drugs for public circulation and there's a scientific debate about this in an political debate. You know you have libertarians will say

what business is it of the government to decide what I can't I can't put in my body and you love others that say no, that's not true, especially with communicable diseases but anyway, and is also a way to go faster. May we could have had challenge trials right. The ESA and they were in paper worsen, correct, and I discuss that in the book and people people talk but that in that would have been, I think, a legitimate in the international security, kind of strategy, although it was not the pace, was so fast that those were not deployed, although they could have been deployed. But anyway My point is to my memory and I won't speak for the politicians, the scientists that I know, we're not saying we shouldn't rushed to get a vaccine. They were saying we shouldn't implement depressed, as for speedy development of vaccine that unsafe. Now here is an and if we can Do it fast and remain safe? Then, of course, we should do that now, as it turned out. We did do that and it happened that the prove what happened right after the election. I dont think there was a conspiracy. They are just that you know it it actually

it was even sooner than we expected you order that the trial results. The trials were shut down early because of extremists, obviously effective in November, whenever the precise timing was so that's just the way it happened to two to come out, but true could have. The face to trials were already out we'd a lotta clues that the vaccines would be work would be good. Even before the election, and there was a scenario in which it could have been handled that way, but maybe trumped decided that that would have been enough to modify the american people like the promise of events at some point and remember the time we didn't know that it would be quite so good and quite so fast right, it's just now. In retrospect. We know that and this is an astonishing accomplishment to have these types of vaccines. This name this fact was: let's talk about seven is a few questions I just wanted dispatch of Frontier, certainly, but repay wall comes crashing down, so we can get the piazza come on out into them into the world

So what do we know about the vaccines at this point of ahead that basic question? How much does vaccination reduce a person's risk of hospitalization and death? Maybe maybe we can break this down by age cohort or maybe we just did it? We can take the general case, and obviously this more important, the older you are and less important, the younger you are. But what do we know at the efficacy of the vaccines leaf safety aside, I suppose my next question: what does it huge, we know a huge amount, and I think it's important to distinguish the Pfizer Madonna, so called am RNA vaccines from some of the other, so that the ass rosetta J J vaccines are based on so called I dunno virus effect fears, and we have a number of acts, a protein based vaccine, which is also very good. We have up, and these don't even include the foreign. You know the Chinese and the russian vaccines and other vaccines developed around the world, so we have many vaccines right now, but the but the main ones we have in this country. The Pfizer in them

Donna vaccines are so called a marker vaccines there there based on thirty years of science, and what you have to understand, is that if the virus, in fact you it it it's the whole virus with some proteins, the surface in thirty kilo bases of RNA the RNA has quite a few genes in it, and one of those genes is further spike protein that the virus has on its surface and then the virus inserts. All of this rna into yourselves of your body and takes over your cellular machinery, and then you start producing all the constituent elements of another virus. That's other buyers reproduced which are then assembled in your body in your body, tries to fight them off and so on, What the vaccine does is it takes just a small part of that process. It in other words, instead of being exposed to the whole virus. You're just exposed

the the RNA. What the RNA vaccines do response to the rna of just despite protein, which can't harm you despite protein itself alone, cannot harm you, and so you fool the body into thinking. It's been infected with a whole virus. When you haven't been, you ve only been affected by small part of it. But then you mountain immune response. Your body says warning morning, there's an invader and you develop antibodies. And memory immunity against the despite protein, which is a part of the virus, so that, if you then our ever exposed to the real virus, you eradicate the real virus, because Europe prepared now, these vaccines that we have the amount vaccines are about. Ninety five percent effective. What does that mean? It's kind of like a Airbus in your car having inner by. Your car doesn't mean that if you can into a head on collision. You won't die, but if you are

and who had on collision the airbag greatly reduces your chance of death. How much less aid ninety five percent reduction in your chance of death? That's how you can think about the vaccine is like an airbag. If your exposed to the virus appear infected with a virus, it will reduce the chance of serious illness by ninety five percent, not honour percent. You still could die even if your vaccinated but it is a really strong line of defence- it's like a seat belt or an airbag and and- and we now know this not only from the original trials which involve tens of thousands of people- some got the vaccine, some did not, and then we waited to see how many people in the placebo arm, I got infected or seriously ill and we waited to see how many people in the treatment arm got the vaccine got infected or got seriously only compare those

first and a vaccinated group at it much smaller number by an amount that yields and efficacy of ninety five percent, but now that hundreds of millions of people have been vaccinated, we also have other kinds of quantitative data that confirms those findings that confirms that the vat seen advocacy about ninety five percent for the amount of vaccines, which is amazing, that is higher efficacy Many many other vaccines that have been developed, that people have been routinely taking for decades for diphtheria, for tetanus for months for measles, for all of these other scourges, which for which were blast that modern science has given us these vaccines and prevent hundreds of millions of deaths two or three hundred years ago, ten, of millions of people die every year from these contagious diseases and they d anymore. Listen the rich countries in the world because we have accedes so We have this amazingly effective vaccine, corona, bars story

comparison is kind of interesting to the polio vaccine because I had forgotten this if I ever knew it recently encounter this fact. Online that I did. You spend a lot of time unless honey. I thought about it, but I'm not alone. There are other, but they like. Ninety five percent of polio cases, were quite mild, relegate The polio is just as this year spectacularly awful areas which it is, but something like ninety five percent of cases are or virtually asymptomatic and the soft vaccine, in was around eighty to ninety percent. Effective many people have alleged that you know I'm of polio in the soft vaccine came out, it would have been on

national to meet this kind of politicized vaccine resistance. What explains address the fact that, when Polio link is bad, it's so graphically bad. That, I think us that I think that we have to remember your exactly right. The polio is looms large in all of our memories as being a complete scourge in it was a nasty piece of work, but it only killed a few thousand people every year, paralysed some some more some greater number, but nothing like the toll of at the corona viruses, taking any the entire nation mobilized and the people who invented this. An insult invented. The two vaccines were widely hailed as heroes, who were on the cover of magazines. They work This was seen as a triumph of american science and engineering and technology friend the public lined up to get vaccinated. They were afraid of polio, of course, but they also saw it as a normal civic to do and are the entire nation was vaccinated. Dont member the precise amount of time someone listening

we know, but within weeks or months or something, and he was very rapid, there was there was also some some good glitches. It was a so called famous the cutter incident where there was a defective batch of vaccine that was released. Do bad factory procedures in in not in one manufacture that resulted in the vaccine not being sufficiently inactivated such that it actually gave a few people polio. This cannot happen if just biologically impossible with the imo knave accedes to be completely clear because you're not giving you not being given the virus, but the way the polio vaccine worked as it was inactivated virus. So what we did is we made the virus weakened it so that you would mounted immune response and that wave your encountered the lie version of the virus. You would be prepared

But you didn't run any risk from the weakened version anyway and that, of course, that happened to unfairness during the polio, but the country tolerated that mean, I think about ten or a few kids died, and they also spread it to a few other people who got sick, but it was in the low tens of people that had this adverse event from that and the country moved on in all of US cutbacks aid for polio, and we had to be the rules. You can't go to school not vaccinate proposal as well as well. You shouldn't be able to you know you need to be vaccinated as part of being M twenty first. Trees, citizen of a country like ours, Picasso back to the this first question by the efficacy of the vaccine, so ably in Russia. Reading about this egg I encounter a range of of numbers around this sum mitigation of of risk of of hops. Was asian and death and again at its inner. This is undoubtedly different, as you were asked a question about each age cohort, but generally speaking

It's something like a ten fold reduction in risk of death for those who get vaccinated verses, those who don't go, vaccinated. So was that your understanding in terms of your what d, what the ethics, c, is yeah that'll nation yes and you had asked her little bit earlier and when we didn't quite nail it as in the follow up conversation we just had now about the by age and an end to studies that I've seen show that the vaccine equally effective at young ages in old age. Has there been a couple of papers at the CDC has released, are looking at the court studies or studies of courts of people that are you not twelfth eighteen versus greater than sixty five and so on, and the way to think about it is that go back to the airbag example. So we have a sixty five year olds in an accident and they can either have an airbag or not have an airbag

they are. The airbag is gonna reduce the risk of death, and if you can have a twenty year old, that's in an accident and they can have any bag or not, have an airbag? The airbag will reduce the risk of death. Now it's also the case that a young body of a twenty year old, maybe less likely to die if in a collision than in an elderly person, it is true. Young people are the better bodies than old people, but both bodies, benefit from the airbag roughly equally. In other words, there is it a reduction in the risk of death by the airbag it it it. For both the young and the old if you're in a head on collision, and it's the same with the vaccines. It is the case that the that the intrinsic probability of death is lower if your young, if you get covered but reduced by a proportionate amount, if you get the vaccine one of the things, that's a big misconception about this in unwanted figures that I use and not in a palace. Arrow is the following. So illness and death are problems of the aged, right young people face a low risk of death in the next year. You- and I

have a risk of death in the coming year of fat. I don't have one out of a hundred one out of two hundred a twenty year old might have a risk of death in the following year of one in five thousand or one in ten thousand, so most twenty year old, they're alive. Today, the great majority will be alive a year from now, but the thing I'm tempted to use a few twenty earls as human shields. Now. Well, because where were the one year olds in my life, yes, or I I could use a twenty year old body. But but the point is that, but the corona virus will increase the risk of death at any age by about thirty percent, so in other words you, unlikely to die. If your young person, you get corona virus, it's true, but your probability will be stopped by about thirty percent. Should you get infected with corona virus, and that is a nasty to happen, it's not necessary for you to needlessly faces increased risk of death in the EU in the new year

it is absolutely law your risk of death in absolute terms, but whether you would get corona virus or not but if you get four on of ours is relatively higher. So another way to think about this is that if you would be concerned about having a heart attack, if you're, twenty or forty or sixty or eighty and being hostile eyes with a heart attack, if your housewives with corona virus, if you when you're forty or six year. Eighty, your risk of death is higher than if you had a heart attack. In other words, whatever age you are being hostile eyes for corona virus is significantly more deadly than being Hostler for heart attack. So, so yes, twenty four year olds are not commonly afflicted with heart attacks. But if it crosses your mind you say GINO cut, it would be better to have a heart attack. It's worse to get around of ours. So that and they haven't now come bad enough to hospital as you. Yes, yes, I'm not talking that's correct, but this is conditional on being hospitalized. That's right, so let us be clear about what comparisons were making here, but it just a way of benchmarking people's exe.

Patients of risk raw. In a way, the help, some sort of see it an end. These stratification by age sets up some equivalent. Here I would have to research the details, but if something like, if you are, a seventy five year old who gets vaccinated. That gives you equivalent risk of hospitalization or death. A non vaccinated, forty five year old Son, this under some equivalence there ray? I haven't seen not calculated, but it could be calculated pretty trivially. That is correct in something like that. That's right since the sun question of efficacy. Now, let's talk about vaccine safe, Is this really is the sticking point Amelia we're living in a world where millions and millions of people whatever they think but the danger of the Verona, virus and whatever they think about it. The risk of getting cove id

not having been vaccinated ate some people think that's trivial. Some people think that is perhaps his dangerous is. We think it is but on the other side of the balance, they think the vaccines themselves in regular, that the amount of vaccines are terrifying right, and therefore the the option to get vaccinated is more or less unthinkable is this route. Whenever you, whatever story, you paint about the risks of getting covert non vaccinated, it's not scary enough to motivate them to get vaccinated. Give how they feel about these vaccines, and I must say I personally know people who have been spread in this sphere too. No exaggeration, ten, if millions, if not hundreds of millions of people and at some you know it. Has they predictable result of convincing millions of people that they shouldn't get vaccinated?

So what are you? What do we know about vaccine safety at this point? Well foresaw. There's luck going on there is there some people who people who are saying vaccines are dangerous. Don't get back here, also preaching a little bit too a willing audience. In other words, people want to think through set their set. Is it the desire that humans have to be the person that, since, on the one hand, we follow the crowd, we copy our neighbours. We would all wish to stick out me in a way. This is how fashion works, as is how all of our norms and work in our society have been people. You know copy their neighbours, and this is something actually which I spent a lot of time studying and its actual little bit odd in a way the that that we are that like when were free to do anything we want. What do we do? We do with our friends are doing, but there's Also stream of people that wanted to seem like smart likely about smart at the crowd like everyone else why do on, but I knew I pulled my money from the stock market just before it crash. Look at me. You know or

you know every one else was doing going left and I decided to go right and look. I was right about that. So I think there is a strain of that which telling people people with Bilbil be people who want to have gone against a crowd and been proven right and that's a kind of an appealing fantasy from many people, no doubt so, some of the people that are pitching that r r r capture a little bit of that that that psychology, but an then, of course, our people, like me, said earlier, who want to deny the seriousness of of of what's happening, but I think that, if the claim that the vexed, it is an. There are some people and I think that these people need to be met had on hurrah ITALY say, wait a minute. This fact it, was developed very fast, I'm a little worried about that or distant allergies, very new. We haven't used them RNA vaccines. We haven't used that before, although they say that you could see what, You take the chinese sino back vaccine, which uses which uses all technology

inactivates the corona virus and inert injected with inactivated corona virus, or live attenuated corona virus, which is another technique. No, what you take the liberty of the virus and you, basically, you mutated, till it it still elicit an antibody response from you, but it's not sufficiently severe so as to, in fact you. This is actually analogous to what happened with the invention of vaccines, with a cow pox be used by Jenner instead of smallpox. You know too, four years ago, even more so, if you don't want, if you're really worried about the novel technology, ok get the chinese vaccine, which is based on older technologies. A long long time, that's better than nothing together. Chinese vaccines that several ass she chinese vaccines anyway one is that people who say I'm a little worried about the speed or a little worried about the nominated. Nor do I understand that on an intellectual level and that's a topic you can then engage, you can say to such people bullets. Let's talk about what happened, why this Betsy was developed so swiftly, you're the billions of dollars at were spent it

mobilization of the nation's doctors and and pharmaceutical companies that tens of thousands of people that rapidly signed to be in the trial so that we were able to disrupt the good luck that the vaccine candidates actually happened to work. While the biology that informed our design of these vaccines and can I reassure you thereby ahead and also at this late date, the fact that we have a cohort s literally hundreds of millions of people around a globally billions of people who have correct, receive these vaccines correct? So now you can even at that to it to the argument in answering such a person. And then such PETE, some subset of them in turn, will say well We don't have enough follow up. You know what I've been ten years. It proves that this vaccine and then the honest answer less we can't know for sure without the passage of time, but there is no reason to believe no rational reason that anyone can discern you that that would be the case and

conversely, we know for a fact that if you get corona virus, you know you face a one percent risk of death not depends by on eight by age, but on average getting infected with a groan virus. You you give a one percent chance of dying approximately. So then, then there are other people who say well, it's not. The speed is the novelty of the technology those you could say. While we have other vaccines that use older technology, would you like those instead and so on? So what we have heard that one foot not ever got here, because there is a brilliant piece of firm incoherence here, because these same people who home. The you know, the emergency use authorization was a m more or less aid a declaration of the the unfitness for human consumption of these vaccines. These are precisely the people who have no problem with monoclonal antibodies or any other treatments, then one day one gets after

and covered Andean in in, I think in every case, these treatments have been ass, validated and less safety tested? Then the vaccines themselves at this point, while I'm not sure I would be bird seed, their less founded in less safety tested. But I am prepared to say that they are less safe because because you know most of these eight with a few exceptions, so so there is a yacht the other day. Samantha Zone, which is a very safe steer. Roy than early on, we knew was the randomized, we'll trouser, shows effect of a lot of these anti viral drugs. You know have, don't and of course, coarser still work that because you're alternative is to run the risk of death from the virus, but they're not benign these trees. Whereas the vaccines are in a truly benign and you asked me about like the safety profile. There was up a paper that was published in September of this year in the journal called vaccines enough.

Then, issue nine, the first, the latter, the first authors last name is fan. If a n, it's a met analysis of a safety trials and out just that was using beyond the safety of the trials themselves and, for example, if you look at a hundred thousand people wherein the Am Rna trials across all the vaccines and and trials bought up. Fifty two one thousand were in vaccine group in fifty one thousand were in the control group, and there was no statistical difference in in adverse events occurring in those two groups. Other words if you want to claim that the vaccines are causing strokes or or hard tax or whatever you want to claim. Those rates were play the same in both the people got the vaccine. The people didn't get it and then, if you look across body but body stand by body system in this site in Smet, analysis, the rates of the adverse events are

almost without exception, exceedingly low in a less than point one, in other words less than one out of a thousand people, and now we have follow up studies that show that, for example, the salami bring about this risk of my poor diet, as in paragraph eight, as these are inflammation of the EU that the heart muscle itself, Mile Cardenas or those were the casing of the heart muscle Pair Cardenas, just to be clear. The virus, can also cause those conditions. The question is how we see some of those in vaccines but Those are also exceedingly reality on the order of one in a million people who get vaccinated and also relatively self limited. Microsoft is imperative our serious conditions, but to date most people who got that as well. Also, the vaccine I've been fine. So the point is that the rate of a death,

due to the vaccine or serious events through the vaccine is exceedingly low less than a one in a million, and one of the things that we need to understand is that, when we're dealing with public health threats, we have to engage in a kind of cold utilitarian calculus just like when we send men and women to the battlefield to the battle front. We we decide that the second ice of those lives. It is for the greater good that it saves more lives, then than are lost, and the same thing happens here. If you, if you do it the way, I would think about it. This way allow sure, given the new mutations, did the delta variant and perhaps the only criterion variant as well, unless you're a hermit that list in a mountain top or unless your exceedingly lucky, Everybody on the planet will either be infected by the virus or will be vaccinated. Those are your choices If your infected with a virus, you face a one out of a hundred risk of death from the virus. If you are given

a vaccine. You face a one in a million are less chance of death from the vaccine it, is a no brainer as far as I'm concerned, which of those do choices to make, and and and the vaccines we're lucky are exceedingly safe and far safer than any. You know the usual standard as used for vaccines is that are serious. Adverse events or death are less than one in a hundred thousand two hundred thousand other words are vaccines out there, which we administer, which we say. Ok, one in two hundred thousand people leave this vaccine to we'll die because we give them the vaccine, but we'll save thousands of lives, and so that's what we're gonna do this These M Rna vaccines are even safer than that which is a prior standard. We had again this is this point it is so important that I think I want to just cycle on it again, so that they can no question about it. I don't want it did so with respect to the inevitability of some adverse event.

And even fatalities for any intervention I'd a minute. This is how I made this point previously. If peanut butter were the perfect prevention of covered and we gave peanut butter, to hundreds of millions of people, we would have some number of people die outright from peanut butter ray. We know this at right angles, given the nature of allergies to peanut butter. We were, It would kill many more people peanut butter than we ve killed with these vaccines. Correct That's about right, and yet it would be a miracle. But what if we could solve the cold the problem with the butter to the two. Of ninety five percent with peanut butter, yes count ourselves very lucky in that case. So, and none of this would minimize the tragedy of being the you know the parents whose kids, kill my peanut butter right. Yes, you know so that's the world were living in we're talking about an intervention that roles out too

hundreds of millions and globally billions of people, and then you do these statistics on that. Whose population level outcomes made it. This is such a simple case to me: let me you you you we have. We have this head to head comparison. You can everyone's gonna be eventually going to be exposed to covered personally, have a choice, but whether you should be exposed having been vaccinated or not vaccinated, and we know that you're you're running eight ten acts, or more greater risk of death or or serious complication, if you're on vaccinated and yet many people are made? this choice and everything everything their worried about with respect to vaccines be a mile Cardenas or any other very low on mobility. Side effect is much worse with Ovid. When you're on vaccinated right S, so I mean

I assume that lies in India and in addition, in addition, not getting, you can also make the argument, quite apart from the fact that it's in your self interested get vaccinated. It's also civic duty, you know you I want to get to that. What was was tabled as a further question. I have the Monti, the choice point here. That is a two branch tree of yes, where are utility function should be pretty Damn easy to calculate write down, one branch you've got. You know what a one percent probability of death or going to worse if you're, older and and yes last, if you're younger, but if you're fifty and above This is really a no brainer, you know it's probably and no brainer? If you're, twenty and above I guess I made us, we should talk about kids yeah in particular harder, and so it is true rules are the here. Some at I think, is to say that when you're talking about mortality the flu poses,

a risk of death, hospitalization and death to a three year old, then covert. Does that? Do it I don't know, that's if we still believe that I don't know. If that's true, I would have to double check that to report that I know that flew flues bat bird flu is also nontrivial for three years. Right amidst its yes, that's correct. So I'm sorry, which way did you say was that flu is intrinsically deadlier. Two three earls and corrective arms out of jail was my belief, but at that Circa well months ago, I don't know for tee. I mean flu has a so called you shape. Mortality function kills the very old and the very young and spares middle aged, whereas corona viruses, called backward l shape mortality function. So it riddles the elderly, but spares a middle way. And the young. Now there I dont know the scale of the Wye access on those curves off hand, I'd have to double check, but, but yes, fluids is. Is worrisome took two young kids We, that is the case we have people who are saying to themselves. You know I have now taken these crazy precautions

A mass gain and testing backs vaccination and boosting and watching the news in fear, etcetera for flu for my car, is right now we're looking at the complete arrangement of our education system. And society in order to protect kids from covered yeah. Here I I see this argument a bit more honestly near so just very narrowly. Quickly on the issue of vaccination. I would still, despite anything, might discuss. I still believe it appropriate and smart to vaccinate your children, certainly those for whom the result. Show already is older than five there's a benefit and my brother, whose up well known pediatrician. You know as publicly argued for this position, and I have a ten year old at home and her love your old and we vaccinated him nor her very relieved and habit of acts in him. The lotteries tobacco, your kid clean fact that reduce the probability of spreading the virus to others, including you, by the way your death as apparent, would be really a bad thing for your child soldier child.

Vaccine your child reduces your own risk of dying, it's good for the child that that happen. Their lots of reasons, and also the more we vaccinate children, the less we run, the of outbreaks of schools, at my requires to close schools which is harmful so that the money mine for me is that I still believe the benefits of vaccination outweigh any putative risks down to the age of five for which we have good data. So far, The masking is harder for me and in here and I also think here when we talk about schools and masking, is very important to draw a distinction between element, school and middle school in high school, as the kids get older and more adult like, and they face more adult like risks in easier for them to wear masks and less harm comes to them from wearing masks. I think we can expect high school kids to wear masks, but we're talking about four and five and six year olds, especially the way the masking is implemented in our country, which is so hard to get these kids to obediently wear masks there. On

rarely on their faces. It think these kids need to see that the faces of their teachers and of each other to read their emotions, to learn language, to learn to read and so on are the benefits of the mask. While there may not outweigh the educational costs an eye for me here. I have no political agenda. I would just like to see some fairly good cost effectiveness. Analyses that, on the benefit side, say ok, if we, if we have kids, were masks, we reduce a certain number of infections. We we reduce the likely the kid have to stay home because you're sick and that you're missing schools, good for the kid we we reduce the transmission and community when we mask are children and save some adult lives and those are all the benefits. The downside. We have some occasional loss. We have some financial cost. We have some income the union's. We have all of these things. Let's just do it calculations and then decide like we said earlier, public health is a cold utilitarian, calculus and

me, I'm happy to be led wherever they such an analysis would lead and at the end of it we might conclude now it's in convened into where mass? But it's worth it or we may conclude its beneficial to wear masks. But it's not worth it and either outcome would be fine with me just a method. Scientific questions. Far as I'm concerned yeah? I think once you're talking about a school population, universe for kids above five, where everyone has been vaccinated, then the logic of wearing masks. For me truly evaporates, then it just seems like a silly imposition Well, I'm a bit I'd been. I think we can. We can either like you, I mean I I I I think that's quite possible that you're exactly right about But I guess all I'm saying is that I would like us to just duties in a very sober minded way to do those populations in and see what Is he hears it in good thing? I wanted to communicate at some point his earlier when your time

but paranoia and people who hold crazy beliefs, and it makes little sense to us. I think another approach to such individuals is to ask them what kind of evidence could I bring to the table, would make you change your mind and invite them to say. Ok, if you did this study, will you showed me this thing I would change my mind then at least we're dealing in the realm of science, but if No, the classic kind of preparing falsify ability issue. In other words, if you cannot think of an experiment that would disprove your heart, author CS, then that's theology is not sign a part of it is. I can tell you in a vaccine, arm they're saying that either we can possibly know what the long term consequences of these, not as axioms are an end You say that you need a another branch in this decision tree in the other branches. You can't possibly know what the long term consequences are of catching cove it on vaccinated artists and theirs, reason it believes there worse in this case that's correct, but it but many

people won't even give you that response, they'll they'll say well. I don't think we should mask for this or that reason, or I don't think we should engage in lockdown for this. For that reason. Our backs For this reason, I think the point I'm trying to me. Just. A very narrow point is that if the person, if the person says you there's nothing, you could tell me that would change my mind. Then you're dealing with someone who has an ideological or religious conviction, we're dealing the realm of science. So I would ask everyone who has only held beliefs about what is or is not the right thing to do in this case, for example, masking children to say, what evidence would make you change your mind and if your personal thinks the kids should be masked, what evidence can I bring to the table that would persuade you know I should they shouldn't and, conversely, if the person who thinks that kids should not be mass. What evidence curbing the table that would persuade you otherwise then were in the room science, and we just do the science. We just conduct the experiments or do the studies, and then maybe we can then you at least thinking rashly from my point of view. Not. I also need to say something else.

Which is often misunderstood? It is normal for scientists to disagree. It is nor for scientists to revise their opinions, as especially as new data and studies come in, normal for study to be confusing and conflicting, and this is why you know if you, if you want to hold a belief and then you go to cherry pick the data to go and find will which one study, for example, of me asking show that masking didn't work, you'll find a study or more were masking, did not. Work and, conversely, if you are pro masking you, you know you could reject the studies that show that massing, didn't work but What you really want to do is to look at the totality of the evidence and judge and way the evidence as aside it is worth trying to discern does masking help or not. What is a scientific evidence in support of this claim, just like when you're trying to figure out nor does the earth rotates around the sun or not, which is it is The Hugo, centering or geocentric fear

of our solar system or what is the evidence on either side of this debate is NEO Gala, LEO's discourse, you know famously get aged, and so so I think that's the way. I would approach this and I would not. I would not be afraid of the fact that some scientists disagree in us just one more thing. Just a hammer. This home people have said. Well, the scientists used to tell us is now they're telling us that. Well, that's that's! Not a bug, that's a feature. That's how science progresses as we get more knowledge We change our minds, as the famous British forgot. Who was you may not? Who said this year when the facts change, I changed my mind. What do you do, sir? You know, what I stick to my guns. You ignore the fact that the new facts know so I think we as a society, one of the things that have happened and the viruses relentlessly exploited this It struck us at a particular moment of vulnerability in our civic discourse. We,

century high levels of economic inequality and therefore, Sir Spit and polarisation on that grounds. We have decades high level of political power relation and we have lost the D. Capacity for nuance in art in our civic discourse people think you're with me, or your against me you're, a writer, wrong, not like that. Their shades of gray, we have this kind of anti elite ism where people very suspicious of larger forces, governing their lives, because I think we are at a particular historical I'm looking across the sweep of centuries. Where there is a lot of confusion about what forms of governance are. The mole and so on and We believe our leaders are not and are they trustworthy and so on, all of which preceded the pandemic and this anti elite ism has his blood into a kind of anti science as well, who were scientists are seen as just another elite. That's telling you how to live my life and what are they know anyway, which is again kind of stupid,

you think about it, because you know surgeons and expert car mechanics are also and lead an expert expertise in that regard, and yet we don T just be suspicious of them necessarily is trying to exploit us. So all of these predated the virus and the virus you see has relentlessly exploited this and we have a kind of a thinned out intellectual life as a nation right now, where we are not engaging in public policy debates in the most rational and self protective way, and were dying as a result of it. I think many hundreds of thousands of Americans will have died, needlessly because we politicized it because we were unable to just approach this in a quintessentially american technocratic way. Just like we approach the vaccine was in. Using. We invented these vaccines. Here I wouldn't we have done that with other aspects on this point out, add a few more nefarious pieces that have been in play me one The fragmentation of arm our information ecosystem,

soldier, social media being the private offender here, but also Gibraltar and of media. Upon casts like this one, news letters and an eighth failing this model of mainstream journalism leading to The kind of wild West effect around providing information, and this interacts unhelpfully Political polarisation and silent and people can curate their own echo chamber such that they really never have to deal with it. Nation they don't like or they get they deal with these for the strongman version of it, but there's also just this fact which true forever. But its nefarious effects or amplified here say can always find a phd or an m d or half a dozen phds or empties to take any craze position about any topic,

good within or outside of their we'll house uniform site dynamic reasons that they are as yet not falling her stood and you can find Phds who or what going to testify that either the cigarette smoking as non harmful and not addictive, and climate change, just not a thing and in this case we have there been several Mds in particular, some of whom have just five minutes of digging, expose their long standing and I've acts routes. But in other cases it's it's a little more mysterious who have jumped on the use of the most popular upon cats in existence and in other forums, said absolutely crazy things about the Van scenes and about we're of ivory act in unabated, you're just might the waters powerfully for millions people here and now you know without dealing with it, with the specifics of any that is just

It will always be the case that, if you want to, you can find someone who apparently has the right credentials to have strong opinion give you a very crazy opinion about more or less thank me. There's always that, contrary and yes to found to be amplified a mushroom We do with that its very high leverage environment. Now, where you can, you can get the weapon zation of that yeah I mean it again. This is up. This is a bug, not a feature of so I'm. So this effect not a bug of science. We actually want scientists to be sceptical. We want there to be, bull horsing wait a minute. I don't believe you there's a force, a very famous story but also, as you know, when I was in medical school, we were taught that ulcers were due to dress. I was taught this. I went to Harvard Medical School, a nineteen eighties and people were we about alternative theories, but we were still kind of talk. This was a possibility, of course. Now there was a sick crank guy and night in Australia. That sudden wait a minute. I think it's caused by. He lit a bacterium, helical backdrop I Laurie

and he was riding won the Nobel Prize and so on, and scientists tell this to these two types of stories to each other all the time in its away, Checking our ego go Packing are believes. This is what want scientists to do. We want them to be sceptical. We want them to consider alternative. We want them to consider easy, far fetched ideas that were previously rejected by everyone and so on now where the less nevertheless, I dont think that when we are going to address a question. I say as a consumer of information, we should go about. Seeking the person who has pinion we want we should instead try to say. Ok, what is the opinion of scientists on this topic in general? You normally, I don't think you should sort of say well, I I don't want to go. About climate change automatic think humans do it. Can I find a scientist that holds up gleeful hearers one? Therefore, I'm right, that's not us retreat with this. That's a search for confirmation but it is a very interesting point of scientific testimony because he s in science, the status of scientific authority must

remain forever precarious, because we want We just know that significant problem as in science, entails a guy and again the usurpation of science, authority and scientific consensus right everyone. Every one was wrong yesterday about topic acts and you know the New Einstein has shown, why so there's that process. That is, as you say, it's a feature, not a bug, and yet scientific consensus on any given topic, if you're, just gonna reason probabilistic. We are right now is: is climate change a thing or two? because the earth rotate around the sun or not you know you're you're, virtually all ways wise to be guided by do thus were in some zone of of truly perverse incentives and confirmation bias, you're always wise to be guided by scientific consensus as a consumer of information

especially when lives or hanging in the balance and a may work. When I talk about some the ways in which we have just obviously fur failed in. I are main institutions have obviously failed to provide a Accurate picture of good informed. Asian during this pandemic, but still there is this apparent paradox: to reconcile as we dont rely on authority in science we really are is: are you really only have as much authority as your last sentence? science, where you can be a Nobel laureate who is completely unhorsed by a freshman in a who ass, you appointed question at the end of a lecture ass- the website that acre seeds by us, because I think that what we should be coming Two is not scientists, but the scientific process right. So this. So, if you're, if you're, if her too,

I understand you know or do vaccines help control epidemics? Well, let's engage in a process to see if what the answer that question is and that's what we should be doing not trying to pick which scientists yo we want to hear on whatever particular topic, and that means looking at the detail. Any of the other so that means forming our own opinions now. The other thing that's important here is that, if your outside your expertise- it's probably not wise to do this yourself, so free sample. If I'm, you know, if it's, if it's a question well outside my scientific expertise, a topic in geophysics or or quantum mechanics or something like that, I know I'm not the right person to decide what is or is not the truth same by the way with more humdrum topics. You know, if I have that five different opinion I had my car is broken and I take it to three different mechanics, give me a different opinion. Well then, do I conclude that the car mechanics are all idiots, then none of them know what's going on or more likely. I find a friend of mine who I trust, who is Amor

red car mechanic- and I have him- take my car and to these three guys and then decide who do so. We have to at some point you know, repose our confidence in someone else in so here where I think something like you're the man in the street and you dont know, there's you believe that are sometimes lifting ideas about something you could or should have some content in some authorities who those be the CDC Tony found. She I dont know, but you know you must should be humble and recognise that you are actually not a fit judge of the scientific consensus on this topic. You might be a fit judge of other topics that you have expertise in not in this regard exactly that in this case to me in this case that the CDC the FDA, the doubly lay Joe Sir my time, is evident from time to time has slipped up in truly impressive, I'm calling ways they have slipped up because they because their human so in because science is not infallible, that's true

but that doesn't mean that if someone slips up, you can move to astrology. You known and say: well one of the sides, now, what are the astronomers? No, let's just go with the astrologers, not a rational response. There was a very famous experiment about dub background radiation and the or in the Big Bang theory called the bicep to experiment that was published that no five or ten years ago, when the most allegiance of science, because in the journal, science actually- and I turns out that the scientists screwed up they they they thought a detective, and they had to withdraw their results. They made a mistake. Yes, they made a mistake, but that doesn't mean that, because these elite strong tumors screwed up on occasion that now, alternative assisting with the astrologers, no right or or just the backyard astronomers wrongly ISIS is like. Even the back yard astronomer occasionally does point out A fly out in a professional astronomers paper, there's two things there what that is,

Science actually working the cure for bad science is more science and better size, but it also doesn't know it shouldn't completely reset our bias. For professional astronomers over backyard astronomers. He eyes they presented Sadly right here and we can listen We should also not close off the backyard astronomers from the discourse. No one is proposing that they be silenced or unable to speak, but you know we're also not proposing that they somehow be seen as having special virtue or special with in was this famous case recently a couple years ago about this, a housewife that there's this said Jim Geometric Palm called tessellation, whether you can create, overlapped without with a with a set of Bob geometric shapes, can you tiled floor with Can you arrange them in a fashion where there no gaps between them? And there is like this repeated pattern like complex timing, like hex guns, on your bathroom floor, you can

ass, a later Exxon, but their other non Exxon shapes. You can test late as well. There's a lot age. They mathematics about this Roger I rose who in this? Yes, yes and it was theorized. Remember the precise details rose. Your eyes that they were like only for ways to tesselated a floor? with a quadrilateral or something and some housewife who had some mathematical training, but it ever been a professional edition was saying, but wait a minute you I I think I should be able to figure this out. And she started newly around and developed around notation in and she found expert ITALY to other ways that no one had known before disproving that claim that there were only for whenever it is I'm garlic. Story a limited but point as she was right and here's the proof we know she's right because we can evaluate her claims using the scientific method. We the test and see you she writer. Is she not, and so here's the thing we're when some when some backyard of straw. Members says I respect and works were like. Ok, let's evaluate is clean

Let's do randomize control trial of Ivory ACT in and see if it works or my goodness, we ve done the trial, it doesnt work. It doesn't work, so this is in fact we done so many trials of ivory Magda now, yes or some that hint that it may have some effect that set renders some biological suppose, but not at the doses we would give people and on though body of the evidence shows that I've ever met is not useful. I'd be delighted if it work I've, no political agenda here, but it it's like hydroxide clerk. When you know we but that went to bed and now we have ever met in rearing so the infinitely. I don't understand why people are so obsessed with believing that I respect in his useful like what's what to do with, like you know, you don't have to take a poetic stand on this like either the drug works or doesn't maybe some other drug that works, maybe they're no drugs at work and you should get vaccinated. I think this may be what people are afraid of whether there is this diabolical notion that damn the prophet motives are completely skewed here

where is that? No one stands to make any money off of ivory actin, but people stand to make billions of dollars, offer the vaccines and therefore a lead of mustache twirling pharmaceutical executives have rigged the whole conversation to foreclose compassionate, you survey abbot, essentially free generic drugs. It in No one was us at our expense, but our lives for, Maxine. Well, no, I mean you're more, you take more risk, taking I've respected, and you do by getting the vaccine. No, I mean, yourself. Why would someone like me, whose I'm not profiting I don't own stock in Pfizer, Madeira? I? Why would I recommend the use of this or your doctor who says you should get vaccinated their not being paid for offering this advice over one thing or another thing I mean I I I I understand people suspicion of the profit motive, just like if my mechanic

the man said, I you know, there's a little knocking sound that pigs actually, if they can currently see you, but you don't have Pfizer and modern emerge all over. Europe offers a coffee cups and we are now I do not and at the same and the, and the same goes for all. You know that yeah, that's right in, and that is the person you other. Yes, your car mechanic may be lying to you and tell you that if fifty dollar thing is thousand law, repair and so on, and so you know rapidly such a car mechanic loses credibility or loses businesses or what get sued or whatever. So I just don't think it's credible theory to imagine that there's some vast conspiracy among your doktor and the experts, on tv or someone like me in a like: what's in it, some people I guess I was accused on Twitter somewhere being I forgot what the accusation was that I was like. I had a covert whore. Exactly, but that I was there somehow the some word like war. I can remember what it was were where I was like somehow Jonesy. Was the word somewhat said I was Jonesy uncovered or something, and I was like

really you think that exists in the way I would to be honest years, but I'll tell you. For years and years, I've been teaching puddle Health and I yeah there's a very famous graph input the because we're on the x axis is years since, like nineteen hundred non, though, why accesses mortality, Anderson decline and mortality over the last hundred years, which is just a miraculous achievement of a modern society, primarily and the story goes that this is for three reasons. First of all, we got richer and, as we got richer, we died less Second, we had public health interventions, I clean water and and hygiene and cotton, underwear and so on, and that's why they died lesson and that's about a third of it. A third of it. We got richer third of the decline in mortality. Is we got public health interventions and only about a third is because of medicine. Your model medicine, and you have been teaching this topic for years and in this However, there is huge spike like that. Just dominates the graph in nineteen eighteen, and for

thirty years, I've been teaching public health, and I I teach this this graph and I put it up on the table up and I shoulda student. I ass a student knows what the spike is. Invariably, someone knows it's. The nineteen eighteen spanish influenza pandemic and I say, is an amazing accepts that pandemic. You have a steady decline in mortality decade after decade because of what we, as a society are doing, you know is not, as a triumph, human ingenuity and honestly say I've been teaching us wazirs. It never occurred to me that this is like This is like as a historical oddity. Why didn't occurred that. It could happen again. While I was alive, I dont know you know I just never curtain, I would be a life while there was a major respiratory pandemic, and so when it said, did bearing down on us the competent into in not twenty twenty engender twenties we're talking about earlier. On the one hand, I was prepared- because I know about these things- and I have been talking about this thing. On the other hand, it took me a while to sort of register- oh my goodness

Why was I not even more prepared like? Why was I so surprised that this thing was happening it by you been teaching about this for DEC? AIDS, Nicholas Zeiner. Why went off on this tangent? Without honestly? Might my expectations have been re said here now? I'm surprised that has not always happening ass, proud Respiratory pandemics come every ten or twenty years and serious ones every fifty your hundred years- and there is some evidence that serious ones are coming more frequently. We can talk about that if your interested, but I swear, I put a few numbers to do what you just described here, because some the amateur there's what we know about covered DES directly but in theirs is so this other analysis of of excess death. Yeah artistic that that people have done it? Actually, the economist just did an analysis. It was published a few days. And am color. Believe they estimate that is more like

seventeen million people who have died so far and is not just from covered. But it is because of covert am efficiency, neither their people who didn't get treatment, cancer because they couldn't get into the hospital, because the hospital was full of covert patients right to their knock on effects of the pandemic, and I think we do with for the economy as there was that there was a ninety five percent confidence interval between. Eleven million and twenty million for access deaths both now and in North America. They put it actually were around eight hundred thousand deaths. This analysis would adjust sat upward by about twenty percent. There's something close to a million at this point. It will it by the ways the range that I had forecast the last time I shall call I had thought several hundred thousand, but in in the book that I released in August between twenty, I put the range of destiny. I say for half a million and a million you're not saying this to pat myself on the back and I'm so smart or something I'm just saying this is Standard Aberdeen. What she, if you, can just do that

populations and look at exponential growth in the transit progress, a pathogen and forecasts the impact on our society, so at all surprised and I've been long saying, in fact, at the beginning of this conversation I say: that, probably in the end, when the dust settles, a million Americans will have died from this condition. That's exactly right. Maybe more But, let's talk about access? Does the technique was indeed did actually buy demographer called in the founder of epidemiological, I am far in England. In the nineteenth century, in the middle, the nineteenth century, he did a lot of very cool things and the reason they invented this technique was that the state of knowledge about mythology, about a diseases and what causes illnesses and deaths was so weak too two years ago that it was not often possible to know what someone died of so what fire said is we don't actually need to know what every year for something died without having a doktor. There were no desert if it gets, they were buried, but we don't know what they died of were. We said they died of aid, but in fact they died of b, and so we were ignorant and farce

you know we can dispense with all of that list. Count how many people died, and that was a number that was known and we're gonna compare. That too the number that we expected to die and we're gonna compute that expected number by looking at the last five years and see ok in England, you don't we two hundred thousand people die every year and during the plague year two hundred thousand people I'd and so we're going to say that the play caused a hundred thousand does this? Is the method of excess debts now turns out that that method is also useful even to scientists. Today, for a number of reasons. One is its useful when you're looking at very ancient plagues- and there are no. Uh certificates are records, so you- you don't know, but you can calculate like you know how many bodies, how many people died in a bit regular year, looking at graveyard or other evidence. Compare that two other years and conclude that, oh, my goodness display killed. So many people now can also be used even not looking. Historically,

at the present day in part, for the reasons that you mentioned during times of plague, some people are killed directly by the germ infecting them. Others are killed, indirect. We, for example, like you said in this situation, which a person with cancer dies because they were unable to get hospital care or their killed indirectly in other ways, for example, the plague forces, be to stay at home- and you have domestic violence- goes up somewhat. More people are killed by their spouses, for example during the plague, let's say but also there are people whose lives are saved by the play. For example, car accidents might decline, whereas we're not out on the road. So Thousand Americans, who would have died from car accidents didn't die because We were less a locked down at home or something not that. That's why we, I would, us down, but but in fairness, you have to put all of those together all of the direct and indirect ass caused by the plague and all of life saved because of the plague. For what? the reason for this people in India because of the law downs, the air quality

he got so much better a year and a half ago, people for the first I could see the Himalayas at some distance and up. Does. The air pollution is so bad in India, Ditto in China, by the way million of Indians in Chinese die every year because of bad air quality and when all the actually stopped, and all the people stop driving their cars. Air quality improved, so fewer kids died of asthma, fury else died over emphysema and so on. Or pneumonia, because exacerbated by the air pollution I put all of that together in that's how you, ultimately, we will ultimately calculate the impact of covert nineteen, and when that calculus is done in two or three years we will see that the impact of this epidemic has been enormous on our society as you say probably an excess of a million people. At least a million. I think will will have been judged, have died and, let me just say now, shut up in a second that we're not through this. Yet ok, we should not be spiking the football only that because of the immigrant variant which we haven't talked about yet, but also because rest

Detroit Pandemics, it's in their nature, to come in waves, especially in the winter so we're having a winter wave right now, a thousand Americans are still dying every day. This condition right now, and we will have another winter wave a year from now by the way when you- and I spoke over europe- I'm pretty sure I said I don't know for sure, but I would have said SAM, be aware of the fact that next winter will have another wave, and here we are having that wave a year from now we will have another way it. The amplitude of the way will be lower. That's what happens the ways tat down as time goes by, but these respiratory pandemics typically take for five years before. The mortality that the plague is causing falls into the kind of background welter of general causes of death. So so some of the people think, while This'Ll be just like influenza, are right. It will eventually be like influenza, but that doesn't mean like lemmings. We have to run for the cliff and dining, Lastly, there are things we can do to reduce the toll of death. Ok, so am I can see this.

Tar conversation is turning into a p s. Egg is we're still working through my my question and I imagine I would answer efforts, ten minutes or gas, so I'm so what we ve with hit heed of accessing efficacy and safety, although I got one other, point to make about efficacy, Khazars, there's a kind of confused notion travelling around now that the vaccines actually don't work very well, because there still is some transmission with respect to you in vaccinated populations by some of people are imagining that that the goal of the vaccine was to stop transfer entirely and if Europe, if you can still get burned, through cases- and you can still past of the virus to others in a vaccine population will, then these vaccines? Don't work is a related issue here, where people well, if you, if you need to get boosted, how may just just happened boosters what we're gonna have to get we're gonna get one booster a year for the rest of our lives. Are these vaccines tone work? So there's

the in the in the Anti backs world there's just an endless: end of chapter about how these vaccines really haven't. Pan Doubt we wish, you really are spending too much time on like shit, but we should address. We should address these concerns. Ok, well, and also you did put on the table this ridiculous statement that national immunity I mean, there's like one and not ridiculous statement that their centre, some interesting science about natural immunity versus artificial immunity to vaccination which is better- and we can talk about that too. So, on the issue of the vaccine, so went when we say a vaccine is effective. We have to specify what is the effective against. What does it prevent you from becoming infected? Does it prevent you from being able to infect others does it prevent you from becoming seriously ill or does it prevent you from dying? Those are four different outcomes and believe it or not. I've seen, doesn't have to be equally effective against all of those outcomes, for

apple. Only some vaccines provide was known as sterilizing immunity. In other words, it prevents you from even being able to be infected. That's not what the corona virus vaccine does. Yes, it does reduce your probability being infected exposed, but what it really does is it reduces your probability of getting seriously ill if infected and Fractious is another topic because, even if the vaccine prevent you from coming seriously ill. If I'm in vaccinated I'm exposed to the virus as the virus multiplies in my body and my body starts ramping up because he's been vaccinate to fight off, iris. There is a window of time when I could potentially spread it to others, but that wins, is greatly narrowed, if I have been vaccinated, in fact, the vaccine does benefit, does reduce my infectiousness and does benefit others. We we had deferred still the topic of whether it is a civic duty to be vaccinated. I think it is you should be vaccinated. Not just to protect yourself.

But also to protect others. And there are many many examples in our society where we we have state power that prevent you from being arrested there's a reason we regulate speeding on the highway is not so much because of our solicitous interests in your well being, but because you don't have the right to crash in and kill, someone else here I would also add here that, even if we knew the effect was only borne by you directly, you still you getting second dying, has a very likely tat. Pull effect on other people. Anything there there. These cases, where there are literally been cases where two anti backs parents get killed by covered and their kids are they got. You know how I do in four year old orphans now the item is unbelievable. What what what is out there? If you, when you go looking for details and The idea that that it was just that you have a bit of a an expression of the personal attack me of these two parents not to get lacks needed because

I was put in a needle in their bodies, though there were no implications for anyone else. In now, they ve got these two orphan kids. That society has to figure out somehow how to the rays and an end- that's her really sad, and I also think it sad for those people who know that they became that they politicize, something which could have been seen. Look. I I like the fact that we live in a plural democracy. We dont Livin in North Korea, you know or some kind of a talker sea. We have people with across the political spectrum with different political beliefs. We, I like this fact: we live in a plural democracy and we resolve how do we resolve disputes? We do not resolve them by force of arms, we vote and we get to vote repeatedly. So we, if we like the people we vote for, we get another bite at the apple in two years, are four years or in six years. This is fantastic about our society, so, when p

or wanting to communicate their divergent political beliefs. I think the right way for them to do that is to have a bumper sticker or alongside it is not by whether they get vaccinated no, what you do not need to link your political beliefs or your political identity to wear you get a vaccine or not. You can signal where you are in the political spectrum all kinds of other ways, and so this the hypothetical case you described the two Anti backs parent who did not high pathetically. I mean I can do no real case. I know, but the exactly them to the sacred american version of the young other are real cases. I actually send out a twitter thread that assembled some of these cases months and months ago, and that some of them were hitting the news nor art breaking, but the plainest, just as your suggesting that those individual ass, they could have had their political beliefs, the political ideology about the government or whatever it is they want, but they dont needed to sing well that by whether they get back or not, that they. They have other reasons not to get vaccinated. They may not want to, but it's a kind of

the kind of wrong headed admixture of belief systems. So often just this fact, which I know we will almost certainly metal last time. There are some people who can't get back. Stated Raymie all true. We have a duty to to do what have we done as well as their risk here, that's grain for so so the fact that there are some breakthrough infections, the fact that there are still some transmissions. This is normal. There's nothing surprising! This does not mean the vaccines on it did work, insist again going back to the air bag example. The fact that someone was in a collision and died despite an airbag doesn't mean that airbags, don't work means they worked pretty but not a hundred percent. That's exactly this thing with it with vaccines and natural immunity thing was a very complicated and interesting topic. So it is, it is usually the case not always, but usually the case, that people who survive at an end infection with a natural pathogen have better immunity than those who are vaccinated and the reason

The intuitive reason for this is that when you are infected with a natural pathogen, your exposed to all the so called epitaphs are exposed to all the antigens, all the all of the proteins in the pathogens, body amounts of very broad attack on the pathogen with antibodies in in memory t cells that attack many parts of the package where's. If your vaccinated, you typically get a reduced set of those principle in him nay vaccines you're just exposed to despite protein, not the other proteins and run of ours. Just got to say as a as an aside here that the name spike protein has done some terrible pr for these scenes, people find the name so scary, the ideas just a marker, vaccines are proliferating, spike protein throughout your lies. It seven that despite proteins sounds like it's gonna harm you and all kinds of ways and their battles warp, alleging that it that it certainly will it's just it really I'm in addition to people's Europe ambient fear of needles. Yes

a fear of the spy protein. Is I'm convinced doing some? Some I readily subliminal worker. I had thought of that I think you're right if, but, if scientist by chance had been calling it the Rainbow protein and we're gonna injected with Rainbow Bridge if it were called the Rainbow protein and we can deliver these vaccines with a nasal inhaler or better get a pill. We would be living in a different world. I'm like a sugar cube like an polio vaccine. Yes, so I take this. Have some rainbow protein on a sugar q and you'll be better preserved? Your idea, railways, you're talking about natural immunity me ass, Nelson S, only so so it is generally the case that it. But but having said that, let me say a couple of other things. This is not always the case. There are previously Apples where the vaccines provide superhuman immunity, for example, with human papilloma or tetanus the it is known that those vaccines provided, End of immunity that superior today immunity acquired for national reasons, and we can discuss a little bit about why. That is the case.

But in addition to vat in order to acquire them natural immunity. Let's not forget you have to survive. You have to run, risk of death- and this is, in my opinion, just stupid- in other words, it does not like put this. It is not a rational strategy to say, even if you believe that naturally immunity acquired. He acquired natural, nearly superior to the vaccine. Immunity, not wise to seek to acquire it by natural infection. Because you have to survive you, you run the risk of death in order to be in that state, incidentally friend listeners will had covered the there, but and studies right now that show that you, still be vaccinated, and actually the people who have both been vaccinated and have had covered in either order and those are the ones that are actually the best position to endure or even mutants, like all mccrone and other mutants that are on the horizon. So the barriers that are on the horizon because they have a mixed intense immunity, let's say from the vaccine and broad immunity from the natural infection, so it is it is. It is not

it is not a rational approach to say we're going to reach herd immunity as a society or we are going to as an individual. That's going to be my strategy, it is far period from an individual and collective point of view to get vaccinated May I ask you here on this point: a many people have expressed the grievance their dinner in all this push to get people vaccinated natural immunity of those. You know many millions of people at this point who have caught covered end and recovered. The natural immunity is not being dignified as sir akin to or even better than nor vaccination and they should be given credit for in the athletes has actually they are vaccinated in only as I and I were badly needed by the virus yes think there's some validity to that point of view here from Geneva, even though, as you did, you just recommended pay, they they also get a dose of the vaccine,

does seem crazy, that if it when this comes down to just the colossal failure of our testing regime but it does seem crazy that we have not figured out a way to credit people for having recur, heard from covered so that they then candid you know that in a world where you need get into a restaurant. Unless you prove that you ve been vaccinated, you should be Will you get into a restaurant, proving that you you had covered survived infection? Yes, I think that would be from an individual's point of you. That's not crazy, although, as I just said, if I were such an individual, I would still be vaccinated because you're, actually not as protected, and it's it's a very wise course of action do have we are not as protected as you might be, but you are correct, but I still think it myself but think it's true or whether we currently believe that natural immunity is superior to a day to those anymore, and I know I don't think that's true. That's not true. That's no! No! No! No! No! No! That's not true this once

the fact is that what you're saying that the call that the embargo vaccines are analogous to a tetanus vaccine? Yes, yes, yes, they provide superhuman immunity, that's exactly right and not all that I'm sure a coincidence that a lot of eye so at an away where we can find the ground truth for that information that I've heard I've heard it both ways, but more reason we have heard it it's the way. I'm saying it. Natural immunity is actually better, then facts now community, although other the combination of a vaccine, unnatural immunity is the best. That's the last It is true, but it is not true that that natural immunity is superior. That's what I was saying before that there are cases in Rome and the amount of vaccines are in that category. I am quite confident about this that the immunity conferred by who doses of em rna vaccine is superior to the immunity conferred by having so I have two natural affection. That's what I was saying that there are two reasons to be vaccinated both of ITALY. The audience can factor here

But when it whatever is the case there, there seems to be a current consensus that and if you recover from covered you're better off get any a boost of the vaccine and then you, then you are the the superhero you want to be so like we're. Talking about the question is which immunity is superior. Is it is it tell me if you survive, assuming you survive and again constantly remind ourselves of this important feature. We have here is a survivor bias in this absolutely so to acquire nationally we have to run the risk of death, but let's say you acquire it is

better than having been backs idiot or not. So there was actually study that was released by the CDC November. The fifth about a month ago, I've looked at this question and concluded, as have several other studies, by the way that it no in fact is superior to be that immunity conferred by vaccination is superior, and here I'm looking at the adjusted oz ratio. It's about its about five times. Your odds of being hospitalized with serious illness are five times worse. If you natural immunity compared to immunity from vaccination. In this the last author of his papers, both Ethiopia, Cosy IO and it was published up in M M W are an avenger, the fifth twenty twenty one. So that's one many studies that have come to this conclusion so now I reject the claim that immunity as Now I mean I'm eight revived serve the right to change my mind. If the facts change, we see more studies, but as of now mice, Many of the literature is that in most people on average, a vaccination

two doses of the amount vaccine provide superior immunity then than having acquired it naturally he was a kid. I think I will. I want to spend more time on the m. They socio logical problem here just today to account for how the Scots so politicized and so crazy, but does have one more question here: around daddy vaccine and their efficacy widely claimed now among people not disposed to get the the vaccines that vaccines are creating a big because we do not have a deal sterilizing vaccine here. The two hundred percent effective vaccine, therefore creating a selection pressure that in new variants. Yet will, but you know, perforce evade the vaccines and so we are basically our own worst enemy here, and we urge you to vat vaccinating imperfectly what these people's tend not to notice. Is there

also natural immunity, would be doing. The same thing would be exerting a selection pressure that would then cause variants to emerge. Escape natural immunity, but among the the fans of explanation, there's this right claim, which is that it's better to have a vaccinated population than an unbalanced added one for all. The reasons with we have mentioned, but for the addition, no reason that in and acts native population. We have a reservoir of tens of milk and hundreds of millions globally billion to pee well, who have not been vaccinated? You have the condition of greatest spread and greatest virulence and greatest opportunity for to manufacture fresh variance that to keep this game of chicken, with with evolution running in the worst possible way, and so I guess my question is to what did readers does vaccinate

can mitigate the problem of variants compared to lack of vaccination how d you think about. You asked the selection pressure at the vaccinated, the Unbox needed together r M are creating for yeah the rising of new variant. I think people are right to be concerned about that. An endless try to see, if I can provide an analogy, is most people will have an understanding. You know the there's a herd of antelope and theirs lion, that's gonna pretty dumb, and everyone knows from having watch nature. Videos that the lion kills. The slowest antelope the weak. One, the old one, whatever it is, but if you can run fast you,

outrun the lion and you don't get it as a lion? Kills a few antelope each generation antelopes evolved to run faster and faster and escape the lion. Now, of course, the lion also involves to run faster and faster than you have predator pray call evolution and their experts in our society who have studied this in many predator pray relationships and and many relationships between pathogens and the animals. They in fact, which is a similar cunning or parasite ossed interactions, for example. This is a well understood topic, but you should also have the intuition that if there is no rely on what happens to the speed of the antelope as a change, no there's no selection sure on speed, and so the average speed the antelope remains the same. And, conversely, if the lion is indifferent to speed, if the lion kills, all the antelope, also the antelope directive evolve by they're all dead. So

don't get faster and faster antelope, maybe you'll get out. You get a really good, Netflix Video, a narrator David Attenborough. Yes, you let this business like a box of the chicken coop you're, just kill them all. Ok, but the point is that, from this little toy exam all that we realise that partial selection pressure is the thing that will most likely to induce evolution of speed in the antelope It's a little! That's the argument that people are making in terms of partial vaccination in the crucial thing here is partial. So if you partially vat the population, for example in South Africa, where they have twenty four percent or something vaccination rate. And, I have a lot of the Munich compromise individuals, which than other interesting important detail in the emergence of the only criterion. Is that, What happens if you create almost a perfect circumstances for seem evading strains right what we're talking about here is not new strains of causes, trouble we more specifically focused on causing us trouble in it,

particular way, which is that they can evade the vaccines if we vaccine some of the population, but not the rest, Those strange that are circulating that can move despite the parcel vaccination come to predominate in. So it's just like the the partial, mediation by the Lion example insult partial vaccine? nation, will enhance or pick up the speed of virus, or make give endow the virus with more of the property. That allows it to avoid the predation, or in this case the elimination, because a vaccination so but the crucial thing there is partial, so. Basically, what we want is a world in which either no one is vaccinated or everyone is vaccinated. If no one is backed it just escaped confusion. Here there are two forms of power. Reality here, there's partial vaccination near not everyone is- has received a vaccine in any given population, but then there's the partial efficacy, the incomplete efficacy of the vaccine itself right.

As its yes, yes, I'm fine on allies and gas is correct and I'm north are contributing to this problem, while the latter the fact that Turkey is not a hundred per cent perfect I'll have to think of for another moment or two before I can put that into the store. But the part of the stock that I'm emphasising right now, is the fact that not everyone is vaccinate this by the way. The reason that I and many others have been arguing that the United States, vaccinate the whole world. It would cost us fifty billion dollars to vaccinate the world and we should do it. We should do it first of all, because we profess it's a moral obligation. We profess to have the right morals and be a leading nation, and I think, is something we should do for moral reasons. We do it for economic reasons were rich country. We, everyone is experiencing supply chain problems. Now they have trouble buying Christmas presents, our products are sing at the grocery store- and you know the big orders and for furniture We are told they won't arrive for months, and this is not a typical experience of late american capitalism, but everyone's having this experience now, because a supply chain problems- and we need-

waiting partner. So we have economic reasons to accede, but, most importantly, I would argue that the demon logical reasons, because, to the extent that parts of the world that are not vaccinated or partially vaccinated, those are Petrie dishes for the emergence of new worrisome stir. Of the virus and those strange will inevitably come to our shores. Just like we ve seen with only run, they will come to shortly will cause as well. So we need to vaccinate the whole world, not just our country. Now you made a second point which is really important, and I just alluded to it a moment ago, which is to the extent that there are partially vaccinate or on vaccinated. The reason wholly on vaccinated parts of the world are also a problem. Is a numbers game, because if you have a hundred people who are infected with the virus or ten million people who are infected. You should have the intuition that, with many more people afflicted with a virus, you have many more. Opportunities for the virus to have a mutation that makes it worse This is why,

Roaring infection is also not good, in other words, why the so called You know that the point you made earlier, which is that large numbers of people who are infected with the virus don't necessarily benefit us, because it provides more terrain, more opportunity for the virus to explore what is known as the darwinian fitness landscape, where the by chance, because there's so many millions of people are infected by chance, it'll stumble on a variant. That's really bad! For us. It's like it's a little bit like you know, if you want a role, I heads are you or likely to roll ahead. If you get ten ten point flips or a thousand coin flips will everyone has the understanding that you know how our however unlikely it is, however, likely just role a heads when you flip a coin ten times it a certainty: you're gonna get ahead if you flip a coin a thousand times and it's a little like that with this, with a groan of ours, if your millions of people who are infected the virus has more opportunities to have a worrisome. Strains. Mutated emerge do for both of these reasons, the wise,

strategy is, if you have three option no immunization, partial, immunization or complete immunization, from the point of view of combating the virus, the strategy is complete immunization near you, one mentioned in passing the implications of having a large population of immunity, compromise people in Africa boy what you? What is that? What was why I assume you talk at the spread of HIV or the early there? Yes. Well, there's a lot of theories. For example, let's take the army grown variant. The onlooker invariant its most recent relative in the iris family tree is about a year ago, so it it's not a descendant of delta, for example the emigrant variant. It seems to be a descendant from, some other ancestral strain about a year ago. This is worth the Trevor, Bedford and others have done, and so the question is: will wool what happened While one possibility is that the immigrant variant spreading in parts of the

world where we had low genetic surveillance and therefore we just didn't detected earlier finally stumbled on it when it got to South Africa, let's was in Botswana somewhere else near by- and there wasn't a lot of genetic surveillance in South Africa have decent genetic surveillance. Then it comes South Africa up we detect it, and so it seems like it. Hadn't been around for a year, but ass she had been that's one possibility. For the emergence of such a string, a sudden emergence of a new strength, another possibility is that it wasn't sir leading in a population, rather it was enduring in a specific individual. So, for example, imagine your name on immunity compromise individual, your infected with a virus. You can't fight it off and that virus lives in your body and keeps mutating mutating mutating viruses. Chance mutations occur. I forgot the rate of mutation in this virus. I think it's once a week or two weeks or so And out, and so over a year in your body, the virus

accumulates a lot of mutation. So one theory is that the Amoco Invariant variant kind of was intubated in Munich compromise individual. Where Finally, enough mutations occurred in the virus and then leaped from this person to hours and then began spreading. That's a second theory of an therefore place where there a lot of the middle compromise people and I think in South Africa. Something like twenty percent of the population is HIV positive. I don't know the precise number, but I think that's about right You have a lot of people there that we really should be vaccinating because they can those poor individuals serve as incubators for new worrisome strains of the virus. A third possibility and this is one of the reasons we will never eradicate. Corona virus is that, unlike smallpox, which can only in fact humans, corona virus can in fact

animals and in and everyone has been reading about this other than Marilla no effort in this area. The tigers in the zoo and dear, like something like some studies, show that a significant fraction of north american dearer infected. They got it from humans. Barely feeding, dears thing and then the dear spread it among themselves and a mink. There was an outbreak, and I think in Denmark with the slaughter of thousands of mink and outbreaks in China and India, for farms and and- and We know our pets are dogs and cats can get it set up. The point is that the corona virus can, even if we facts everybody- will never eradicate this virus because it can live in animals who we live with, so it their animal reservoirs possible. So a third possibility is at comical was incubator in some kind of animal reservoir and then return to humans? It wasn't humans, went to animals. It started first and backs it came to humans.

From humans, it went to smother animals, and I was coming back to us. The corona virus is a feature of the natural world. Are world has changed? There's a new pathogen in our midst that was not there before, and so we have to accept this reality. That's the third possibility and then of course, or some since you're in the dark reaches of the internet SAM there. People who speculate, that this is the chinese plot like, firstly, softened us up with the original stream and now they're. Releasing you know it better straight in suddenly, which I think we can exclude that possibility. I think the most likely thing of the three I've just mentioned is the issue, second possibility that it was in a immune compromise human and that's where only Kronos, intubated and now has has left us interesting, Henderson, ok, Willis Pivot, to the topic of why this all became so confusing and so difficult to talk about a week. We ve touched on it some here, but I would like acknowledge just try to put yourself in the position

of someone who has listened to us some now for two hours and still unconvinced, because they they still can't shake the feeling that the incentives are such the corruption of our institutions, is such that we just can't talk, asked the information we ve gotten. We ve got a whole segment of our society that is declaring a pistol, illogical bankruptcy on some level and then Turning to night standard sources of income nation for their facts. As I said, I think the the altar of media wilderness is especially culpable or giving energy to this. But the truth is our institutions have failed. Remarkable degree, emanate they have, they have proven. Hip critical or an capture able bye, bye

crazy ideology to a degree that I would not have thought possible. I'll. Give you a couple of examples here to react to not imagine that these are in your memory, but most of all- in point during the the pandemic, where we had something like a thousand public health professionals who saw and an open letter attesting to the necessity of demonstrating for on board lives matter protest? and and how that was epidemiologically. A fine thing to do, because racism is such a problem, in our society. But of course it was a terrible thing to demonstrate against locked islands or any other sort of man. Gathering on the right side of the political spectrum that was totally sponsible and dangerous and get a guarantee to get people killed, but LO and behold it it says safe to get out thereafter the killing of George Floyd and, demonstrate on mass for the right political cause. I mean it was such a distortion of public health messaging

that I think anyone right of centre politically took one look at that and said alright we're done here. I don't need to hear from the Daphne founders of the world. This is how they banned there scientific advice in response to woke Kennedy politics, while I dont know of Anthony felt he himself was young. It was mine. I don't think you I don't. I don't know. I don't know I'm that letter and I have no family like people were well yeah, but I wish I was publicly opposed to be very We are so I in real time. I was saying this is insanity. The virus does not care about the justice sort non justness of your cause you didn't care. Where are you whether you have pinker? Yes, it doesn't care and therefore I did. I could not see how we had denied people. The right to visit, loved ones were dying in a hospital or funerals, but suffering at funerals were ready to risky at that time and dead, but somehow turn on a dime and say well, you were gonna circular pass to

at that time in New York. I think the governor of New York City was cracking down on jewish way, things amongst the orthodox Jusan but turned around in the very same week or something I may bungled these facts a little bit but was saying, oh up, be alarmed. Protests are okay. This is not. Rational, and I was strongly opposed- Maui talk about whether what is the actual risk from outdoor interaction. And now we have a lot more evidence now, a year later, about the extent which it is or is not risky to be outside, and we now know a lot more but the aerosol dynamics of this pathogen, but at the time it was income. Distant and, I think deeply injurious to credibility, but this is why would tell listeners who are sceptical, try to fight voice? You trust, try to find someone who you don't you trust about these matters and and try also to ask yourself

Again, I repeat what I said earlier: what evidence would disproved by beliefs unify believe that I've respected works or that masks are useless? What evidence could I find from perhaps ideally someone you trust that would make a change your mind again: I think that's a crucial your risk, but on your point on the crisis in institutions, I mean you- and I have talked about in some of our past conversations, for example the collapse of higher institutions of higher learning in our society in Europe. I think we're at an interesting moment in the hills three of our nation, where the pendulum swings back and forth, and I think you're right to talk about a crisis of our institutions. I think the media people are worried about. You know the legacy publishers. You know there was a time when you could have confidence in the New York Times and the CBS. The evening news with Dan rather or or Walter Cronkite or whatever, and you you had a kind of ocean about the Supreme Court? Yes, maybe that rule your way, but you didn't think of them, is venal or is somehow being driven by their politics. Perhaps

and our universities, you thought of them, as perhaps, is as institutions that were devoted to free expression, Scientific inquiry and no idea was and you're not. Nothing was unsaleable. No idea was unthinkable and so on and an end to our public both institutions and so on, and I think there is a moment right now again. The virus scan That's when we're vulnerable in this regard, because I think there is a crisis. For other reasons. There is a crisis of institutions and our society him just to give you another example. Here I gotta I think as more recent, but the american medical association has changed his guidance for doctors, about how to talk to patients and had and one point they they recommend instead of referring to low income people, they recommend that you say- and this is a quote- people underpaid and force

and poverty as a result of banking policies, real estate developers, gentrifying neighbourhoods and corporations, weakening the power of labour movements, among others, have the highest level of heart disease right yet so say, Four people have high levels of heart disease- Federalist, sell that. Well I mean it. That's you could even do a little like yours at an onion headline or not because a lot of things and ethanol sketch exactly maybe and I will do it. Who knows? Yes, that's ridiculous. I mean shooting that either there are other examples I understood by the way. Just because I have studied the influence of those forces for decades, like Howard, is that poverty kills you the mechanisms by which being poor is harmful to your health and many of those things that were identified? I have looked at, for example, how for profit, hospices. I did a lot of work in the ninety. Nine is on how for profit, hospices had different incentives to care for the dying, the not for profit hospices. So I'm completely empathy to the workings of such forces and their relevance, but two

nip violate our language and that fashion is and to politicize. It took two Ex Ante politicized like prejudge the outcome through the manipulation of language. I think this is nuts and then there example of This included algae in the beginning when, when so many people in them, establishment told was really, I think, consider day a noble lie, but was sir, was it. You know that was a fiasco. Images egos, it was so transparent, was so illogical and they they they basically claim that masks don't work. Because they were worried about all the people, the run on p p and there would be no no and ninety five masks left for doctors and healthcare workers, but you know it: mass, don't work. Why do you care hit yet there's gonna be a run on the economy on the masks it made us and at its magician, That alone was so damaging that, yes, it was some

miss. Some people just never recovered their. Yes, caring about tat. We are what was it what's: a valid source of information coming from the government or from CDC that was absolutely awful end in earth April and I was again not in that category. I was talking about the utility of masks and among making homemade masks and and using a ninety five mass. I released a paper with some colleagues at Yale in April of twenty twenty. So again I was, thankfully, not in that category either, and I think that was a slip up by by faulty and and and and I dont know the reasons they did- that it may have been, as you suggest, this sort of noble idea, but for those individuals who are pissed about that, I would encourage those individuals, especially if they have a polluter, no reason for being pressed to ask themselves. Why are wealthy great nation didn't have PPP? Why did the present the United States? When warned you know actually back in November of twenty nine?

he certainly by January, certainly by February, when ITALY was collapsing. Why were we not manufacturing ppp? Why were we? Why did hundreds of doctors and nurses and am tease and others die from infection that they acquired in hospitals, caring for the rest of us, because they did not have adequate p b? This boy my blood. When I was a early, I was I'm a hospice doctor. I was, I dont, see patients anymore, but in the ninety nine, as I used to take her people, click HIV and about a third of our patients and hospices, HIV and, of course, in the hospitals. Many HIV? These are typically young gay men who are dying awful deaths until the invention of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In the late nineties, we had to take risks to care for these people. We were worried that if we were drawing blood from them, we would have a needlestick injuries saw my colleagues.

Of needlestick injuries, and we would worry that you'd get HIV if they vomited on you. These patients are oars. Your inner spit body fluids got on you, you would you would get a deadly disease and- and you would be infected with HIV, but we, it was our duty to care for patients and we did, and we took some risk in so doing, as was expected of us just like a soldier going into battle, but we had equipment, we had mass, we had gluts, we had gowns we had a special rooms we had special ways of disposing for the needles committed, minimize, needlestick risk and so on. So we were expected by the society to take a risk, but we were equipped by the society to me mice at risk. This was not what happened as corona virus crashed into our society. In March of twenty nine, the twenty twenty, we expected our doctors and nurses to take risks, but did not provide them with equipment, and this was an enormous dereliction of duty by the Faro federal government.

What they should an insult people who are saying why was found lying? They should then ass. The next question: why was Trump lie? Why did tromp not order were the wise engineer, this wealthy nation to produce ppp that we need. It back I'll. Tell you an anecdote, because I said earlier, I was worried about this pandemic back in February of mock January February. Twenty twenty I camera precisely when, but roughly in February, I decided that I should buy some equipment and I went I I live in Vermont, and I went to the home depot I am less Lebanon New Hampshire across the border, to buy some in ninety five masks and which you are. Often available in such places stood to minimize it when your dusting or sanding stuff? You know you need this type amassed and I went there to buy it and the guy While these guys want these orange aprons- and I asked him- you know where the master- and he looked at me said you know you don't have any more, and I said what do you mean? You don't have any more and he said

in this West Lebanon com Depot that there the many chinese people that live in this area at purchased the masks and sent them back to China, so why? why? Why was heart country not able what why were their people aware the need for this equipment. End up being acquiring it, and yet our country was not your on the ball and manufacturing adequate about it, but we have seen It's not too demonize those particular individuals or the demonized Chinese. That's not my point of my story. The point of my story is that Other people in other countries were aware of the utility of this equipment, but we seemingly were not, and so this was a major collapse of the federal government, in my opinion, that we expected healthcare workers to run these enormous risks and did not pay. Will equip them. Incidentally, one more point: many loved ones is a hospice doctor. We,

would struggle mightily so that people would not die alone. Having a patient dialogue was considered a really bad outcome near and I have held the hand of countless p who are otherwise. We have died alone when they died that you're, just as it does, like sitting in the room watching and helping this person transition to death, and we had tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of Americans during this pandemic, just like in times of bourbon, plague, mean literally a thousand years ago we seemingly had not progressed in a thousand years, people dying alone, because the hospitals could not spare the ppp for their family near. So it's not just that the healthier we should like the deceived did die alone. What an awful thing to happen the loved ones were present. These are all dereliction of duty that can be traced back, in my view, to the lack of our preparedness, which again can be traced back to our policy.

Missions and others. The others is actually reminds me of another item strike against found. She that is so also not said to them, disparage the giant just to be clear. On one thing, faulty was real, will it all for the lack of people you know now. I just I was coming back to that, and I am just I'm turning into the heads of the people who haven't been a word of what we just said right for two hours from those people of their still listening they have a long way. Everything concerned: why are we? don't start with those people figure family. How many people have bigger podcast than I do I mean it. Mister Sinclair. While I do know that ok, it's incredible: what's happened in podcasting, podcast landscape. I mean it's ok and some, play people have smaller podcast. I do, but still a large podcasts that millions of people and they have a list of things we have neglected. They have these. You know articles from the pre prints from some journal that day we haven't heard of that, has something that we have scandals.

Neglected. Nine, this conversation or on men of their spheres. How many details that either lookin affair I am sorry it within their purview. Are nefarious but for that don't actually have the implications that people wanted off from them immediately and what was going on a few weeks ago when he was disclosed that I think it was Iser wanted there data on the kids trials kept out of public view for the next fifty years. As I mean what guys out. Do you tell me if you know anything about that, but I can tell you is that in the minds of tens of millions of Americans that factoid designates like it twenty mega time bomb right here,

that is just as all you need to hear to know which ended up. Yes, I understand that in a match. Sympathetic to that- and I am I am very you- and I talk about some of these topics before I'm very high- on the open expression in full transparency like I think I really believe that the cure for ignorance is light here and if you need to throw bright light into dark recesses, and that includes releasing pertinent data, this kind. What I read was that a conglomerate or not a conglomerate, a large group of interested parties at filed freedom of Information ACT request with the FDA. For some of these data and the FDA said: look we only have ten employees to provide all the data has been requested and clear it in the way.

That has been asked- would take us fifty year. So we can't do it. I haven't heard that Pfizer itself had said no to meet. That strikes me, as is bad business. In addition to being made, I think maybe I haven't maybe have that wrong. Maybe was the FDA base within, at this rate, we're not gonna, be destined for fifty year, yes and but but then I think than Pfizer could step up and say no will release ourselves. Why we're day you know, I think, to their interests for people to be vaccinated tonight, and I can see why people would say we want now I also think that this can be a kind of turtles, all the way down an infinite regress. You know like as soon as this data release than the conspiracy theories, you're, there's no satisfying conspiracy theory So let's say there really Pfizer released the data they requested duty will actually now we want to see the original Xerox copies of the original clinical charts of the twenty thousand people. Yet we want their names and addresses if only the names addresses. We think you made them up like the guy that talking the sandy hook, conspiracy, that there are no grounds here. What are awful human being, what it disgusting, a disgusting, human being profiting

the murder of other people's children. I mean you know that this is ridiculous, but you know like, even if he showed this guide video when you showed him death certificates. You said now. I still don't believe it I mean it's point you say: well used my language, a fuck off there's this: don't you know there's no way to you know to satisfy such individuals but I do agree that some accommodation for people's curiosity, inquisitiveness and suspicion needs to be made in a society such as ours, yes, here so absorbed in then again back to found some besmirched reputation. Violet, I hold about you in high regard. I upstanding Tony, I dont know personally, I've never met him. I've read a lot of papers ass. She had read his papers before coded, he was found. She was about respiratory pandemics. When I was in not in high school and I and I followed some of his work-

HIV is a popular legitimacy. As a politician as a leader of as the leader of the National Institute of Allergy and infectious diseases, I was aware of some of his work with HIV. You know in the ninety nine ease and there's a lot of history. That's been written about his response to the HIV, the AIDS activists in how they came to be friends and so on, and I I think he was a little slow in responding to them, but ultimately did the right thing and you I generally agenda think highly of homer, but one that I recognise some of that. I recognise some of the slip ups nontrivial slip. Ups at your discussing the year to table This is where the other, I think, the biggest mark against at the moment is the the lab leak hypothesis and what and the stonewalling he'd yellow your senators are no. I don't agree with that. That I think, is unfair. I think that from what I see these far right senators that are trying to suggest that fast.

She wanted to give american dollars to chinese scientists to deliberately weapon eyes corona virus. That's ridiculous square yeah- why much her that's the shape of the claim. But there are two issues: the claim that we have given money to know we're going down lab that that was used for gain a function, research and then he was in that in that exchange with ran Paul. He lawyering, the language me we had a very clear Tony and you know it depends what the meaning of is is approved Well know, I do round gain a function which drove allowed people crazy mean that all the whole whole left of centre Commentariat ruled ran Paul to be adjusted an embarrassing ignoramus there, but in in most of America. Errors are certainly much of America. It seemed obvious that that FAO she was just

not acknowledging the plane, meaning of gain a function. Well, ok! So, first of all I have followed this a little, but I mean I'd. I have not seen every video clip had not seen every statement. I've not. I have seen some of RON Johnson and I have seen some of ran Paul. I've seen some clips and I honestly don't think those guys are, I think, are being completely disingenuous and its also implausible on its face that the that an American in his eightys, the the leader of the national surveillance infectious diseases, is Happily providing money to the Chinese to do gain a function. Research, that's the wrong framing of what you'd know that I think the the re gave him real allegation would be that he's dead, done. However, adverted layer inadvertently and he's just covering we had put you will at partnerships this inhabitant. Nor should we had partnerships with chinese laboratories which by the way if we hadn't blown those up we'd, be in a better position right now to know where the virus came from

I'm not. I don't know all these facts exactly right, but my understanding is that the federal government gave some grants to the Eco health Alliances entity in New York with had been partnering with chinese scientists to collect corona viruses in caves in China. I think roughly that's what was happening, but to our advantage. Imagine if we had had a big archive of Bat Corona virus somewhere in the United States right now and to end in the way Trump DE funded that on it it looking for like some kind of a whipping boy is she was injurious. As I understand the fact, pattern was injurious to our country because we pull the rug out from a partnership with chinese scientists at precise moment when that partnership would have been most useful to us actually lay our hands on virus that would have allowed. To figure out where this covert nineteen were Sars copy to came from. So it is to our nations credit that we have a commitment to science and scientific inquiry and that we will,

We think that science can be a political and that we have partnerships with scientists around the world who are Are you know, even during that, do even during our competition with Russia during the nuclear arms race, the american girl, and the russian government encourage physicist to talk to each other so that there would be these back. Channel communications and were apolitical between scientists sought to suddenly take this in and make it into something nefarious: is I think you know I didn't first among them. So I think that, with respect to the lab, wake up offices me my my view of it has always been it. As always plausible, just because of the nature of the case, and we ve got you had grown a viral la Hague. You ve got the Akerana virus lab right next to the the adoption of this outbreak, but it was, it never seemed important to figure out at the beginning, because we have it, the genome sequencer the virus. We know what we have to vaccinate against and but we

obviously we need to figure this out eventually, because we don't want any more lab lakes. So the thing that seem truly crate, making and obnoxious. At a minimum. Was the the political pressure come from the other side to say that rule out. They lab leak hypothesis on as a racist, yeah thought crime Hence the Chinese yeah. That's also be asked, and I think I think, if I had to guess I'd of that of the other two possibilities were discussing here. The so called zoonotic leap that it was a natural move from my from animals to humans, ordeal, accident lab leak fury. I still think that zoonotic leap is more likely not. I am clearly do not exclude the loudly theory and the Chinese have done themselves, no credit by their secrecy and their lack of transparency. Now again, however, in fairness, the Chinese, if the chinese government was demanding that they come to four Dietrich to inspect our labs, we also would be quite unhappy without possibility near

I think if it was a lovely, the Chinese have a lot to answer for not only for the incompetence of that resulted in the lead, but also the cover up near which you know is not ideally the way our nation would function. There was another famous example, I think, in the seventies of anthrax, leak in Russia, actually was a lab leak and on it was covered up. Actually, I think by american scientists as well, and then I don't know the story. Exactly is a couple of books written about this, but I am used to straight stolen member right now, at the level of accuracy. I want to be heard by. However, many hundreds of thousands of people are hearing us right now for this far into our come. Station, but about what they are all very angry and there ones are exactly, but I, when I but I, but on the on the lab, like I do want to say couple things my lab has done. My own lab is then a little work on this topic earlier. I talk to you, about how we had this phone data about movement of people. Eleven million people train

getting through high in January, and we published a paper in the journal nature in April of twenty twenty very quickly the pandemic that show that we could forecasts the timing, intensity and location of the epidemic in China simply based on high, when mobility patterns alone in a few months ago. Occurred to me, and actually I have this in the up in the paper bag version of my book. I put in this analysis in the afterward the card to me that we could use these data to reason backwards, not just forwards and trace back. When would be the likeliest time that the first patient, with that was infected with corona virus could have left will Han, and I date we Hollis. I call this patient a zero prime, so this is not the first person to be infected. This the first person who left wing high and that date is November. First, so already by November first, the virus was had soon with circulating and then, if you may,

Some further assumptions based on what's known about the epidemiology of the virus. It suggests that patient zero, the first personally infected, probably occurred closer to October first, so this You know. I am interested in the origins of the virus and my own laboratory has done some work on this. I think, if I had to get eventually we will. We would. We may know the others increasing evidence very good scientists on both sides of this, I do want to say both sides, because that makes it like a political debate is not a debate. There is evidence accruing in support of both hypotheses the lab. We keep offices and so not agree and eventually I think we will have a corpus of evidence that allows us to you'll, make an educated guess as to the most likely thing. I should say one thing: we left hanging from part of our conversation. Maybe now go now is this issue of the interpreting make interval earlier we talk about how serious pandemics may becoming more frequently. What's the evidence for that? Well Most listeners will be aware of the fact that, even in our own lifetimes, there have been

He saw a nordic diseases. Zoonotic means a disease circulating in animals that comes to humans. Hiv is up but the Simeon Immunodeficiency virus wasn't monkeys came to us Ebola. We hear body ball outbreaks, zika virus, Hunter virus, Sars one in two thousand and three these happen, and there is evidence that those nice paper published a nature about ten years ago now, approximately or approximately that that show that, if you look at the zone, diseases by decade, we're getting more and more and more of them as each decade goes by and part of that and for that actually believe it or not- connects this global threat of pandemics to the other great global threat of our time, which is climate change that with climate change were seeing increasing, motion of people encroaching on the territory of animals and also animals their territories being destroyed by climate change. They come in contact

us, so we have more and more contact between humans and wild animals and therefore, more and more of these or nordic leaves that are happening. First point second point: If you look at the Inter pandemic interval that time interval- and in this is stochastic- I mean there's. No, it's not like these new respiratory pandemics occur like clockwork. They just occur roughly every ten or twenty years, but it could be year could be every thirty years. Is some variation? The serious once used occur, we fifty two hundred years, but there is some evidence that that's narrowing, so it's possible. We could have another pandemic. Not fifty your hundred years but and lets say five or ten or twenty years and here's the thing that I think people need to understand. Battery corona virus, is it's actually pandemic light only our heels about one percent of the people. It infects just imagine to imagine if via an end in the authority of the virus, is in

transit property of the virus. It kills one per cent of people infected, but imagine if this virus had killed or thirty percent there are other corona viruses like murders, middle eastern respiratory syndrome, that kills thirty percent of the people infected. If that had happened, we would have been facing a bubonic plague like black death type situation in the twenty first century and the richest nation the world has ever known, and it would be like in the movie. Contagion, for example, which is a fantastic movie, a one out of three people dying and so and- and I dont think people fully understand how we ve kind of almost bad as it has been with kind of dodged a bullet, and this is why republican and democratic administrations for decades have right, They seem respiratory pain, It makes a national security threat and why we need it. Conspiracy? Why we should have taken this one even more seriously than we did, and why we need to continue to take this seriously and prepare for it for the future so as not to have to suffer like this again highlights. That brings up a point. I won't talk about them,

but we are in this wormhole of time dilation, where what I thought was gonna. Take. Fifteen minutes has taken two and a half hours our under the tree but I wanted to address with you admit it. Sixteen, which is to the point you just raised. Where a war is the dress rehearsal for a worse pandemic, which is it or less inevitable at some point, very worried that we have learned some of the wrong lessons here and then- and I think one lesson we learned at least in the United States, about which there seems to be almost a consensus- is that law, downs, dont work? Now I don't agree without having any say it like that, be amazed again. If you have you, if you ever turn on your computer and get on the internet, and why do I just don't appear to spend I don't appear to be at the dark reaches, is right, I mean sometimes a dark. We just find me SAM, as I know they find you, but but

don't go looking for. I am surrounded by people. I think lockdown don't work and made so that there are two ways to make that lay on true there's huge amount of scientific evidence of his load, so yeah yeah, that's what I'm gonna get you, but there are two things that could be claimed here be claiming that for some time a mysterious and magical reason. Lockdown, don't work like you successfully lockdown and still the virus spreads. Will it spread through the water. It's give remain down from the heavens. That could be the case or was spread by an insect vector, for example, Ongoloo from arousal dazzled, but in this, and were respiratory virus. We know that's not the case that if people actually or not commingling. If you actually manage to lock down for a month or six weeks, the outside for a virus like this. Yes, your ear, you can quash it, but so these second claim, which is apparently true- and I don't think that's I don't think that's true. You're, saying that there are

people who argue that if we had just all gone home for six weeks at the beginning, we that we would have killed this thing- I don't think that's true, I think it would have the virus would have escaped our dragnet. We'd still be look what's happening in China or even in New Zealand was we also saw the hit enters. The second claim, which I think is the more accurate one which is given just nature of people in the end, the the imperfect, nature of any lockdown, no matter how draconian you can't fully locked down and people are not going to comply, and only in the United States. We we seem to have three million people who really were not going to comply and therefore, what you're calling lockdown is never really lockdown, but well The point is that as well, you look at Australia and when you look at New Zealand, their level of access

we're talent eater uncovered is is nothing like our own trivially. They simply didn't have access more correctly stirring, cold ass right. That is right and what date, if, if they now vaccine their entire population. Fifty years from now those countries will be seen as models now in fairness, New Zealand is a rich island and Iceland, and do you know, the kingdom, you know they warn is able to implement the strategy. But, yes, you know, I that's really would be seen as an incredible victory. They they kept her population, secure, They waited till. The vaccine was available to vaccinate every one and they had a minimal loss of life and they are having minimal loss of life, and that is admirable, but another point confusion on this lockdown out things, people there that the word is Ray sloppily. For me, locked down his stay at home orders or business closure orders there are many other steps short of that that are effective for examples, closing schools are banning gatherings or or minimise, seeing the size of gatherings or or court

or curfews where we see ok, you can only be out from your nine to empty, and p M or whatever their through all kinds of procedure, there's. A government can implement to reduce social mixing by the way. Sometimes those procedures have paradoxical effects which make things worse like like curfews, for example- and I just mentioned- can actually some make things worse by making by increasing the density in stores so these are all complicated things that need to be thought through and worked out and bottled and experimented with and so on. But and also you don't do idiotic things. I closed the beaches when it when homer, when you are talking about a tall I regularly nowhere where outdoor transmission is, is greatly reduced force. People in

their boxes, and you tell them that I gotta beaches are part. Yes, yes, that was done. In fact, we had a paper on honour on that island. We published, I forgot where I think, on the Atlantic. We just had a little tiny cute little study we get about. Why every time it would they were talking about about locked down their road mass gatherings? They showed photographs of beaches, which was just stupid, that's the least risky place, but anyway. So the thing is when people talk about lockdown, what they dont understand. As they say, locked some people say lockdown are ineffective, but what they mean by that is that the studies show that, after you have, those two schools and caused the stores, then ordering will you stay? Home is no longer additionally effective, but but basically you functionally implemented a lockdown anyway, you you know you thinned out the movement of people dramatically short of ordering he went home and also the same people who decry lockdown for all the people who say well, they dont want to wear masks, and this is not sensible like if you will we want to avoid lockdown Saki than do your part,

you don't wear your mascot, thousands of these people don't want vaccination either. So well, they dont want anything, but that in a mature, maybe that is that like saying- and I wish it is I wish you all its that seen in Lord of the rings, when I went, when canned off is talking to. I forgot him Frodo or somebody he says you know we all wish that did. We did live in such awful times, but welcome oh, yes, I wish I wasn't having to cope with the respiratory pandemic, us a once in a centre bent, and I imagine the young man that fought on the beaches of Normandy, wish that the World WAR hadn't in place when they were young many either, but that's when they, and to be alive, and so it's just immature to pretend. Like nothing is happening now the work this change. There's a new pathogen in our midst. It's like radioactive fallout, it's just there, and so we have to take some action to respond to it. You we can debate not to take the least the least injurious action we can debate, which actions do or do not. Work which are effective are the

worth the across all those are legitimate questions, but to somehow want to pretend like we don't have to do anything. You know we can have our cake and eat. It too is not, in my view, befitting a great nation. It's not befitting an located citizenry or the kind of civilization that I think we have her eyes out. So on that point, What we should be doing in or not doing at the moment where do you come out on vaccine mandates? Various flavors, I think I mean I think it's totally fine taxi mandates. In fact, I think I would say I'm in either of them now. I also recognise that we live in a plural democracy and their people who disagree with me, and you know, for example, I I don't think there should I I, if I could, I would ban the private ownership of weapons but I realized that I'm in a minority here and that many Americans want to bear arms and they use those arms responsibly and that we have it

he's some kind of constitutional right to bear arms, and you know that I, in a plural democracy, and I live with others, fellow citizens who have different beliefs about different things, and so we kind of have to compromise and tolerate each So, on the one hand, I would be in favour of mandates. On the other hand, I realise that there are people who will refuse to get vaccinated. I do not think such people should be put in prison gay. I dont think that too, that we should send the army to their door and say There is a law that you have to be vaccinated and now we're gonna arrest. You ok, that's not what I am saying, but I do think we can say you know your non vaccination is in fact posing arrest. The rest of us just like we can conscript you in time of war, which we, the state reserves the right to do, that the state reserves the right to come and your factories to manufacture stuff. In time of war, we reserve a lot of rights as a collective. We going to mandate vaccination and if you refuse well it'll, be harder for you? You know you, maybe you can't fly, or maybe you can't go to arrest. For whatever you know, it's more difficult for you

began to be so. I would say that I think that requiring p to be vaccinate as we have by the way for for decades for all time, of childhood immunizations. We provide for some exceptions for people, of course, of medical exceptions we provide for, and we should would or on a virus. We have some religious exceptions. If there was, I haven't seen legitimate religious objection to corona virus vaccination, but maybe there is one Maybe we should not tolerate such individuals, but they'll be very few in number. I would not get personal belief, exemptions for vaccine mandates. I don't think that's. Credible way to run a society that something which would only heard Hamilton what are you relief exemption to pay? My taxes, I mean that's, not so how we run a society You gave us an exemption for natural immunity if someone can prove a day. Yes, I work over there. I think I would now we touched on earlier. I think I need some from an individual perspective. Yes, but from a public of public health perspective. We might not wish to do that for at least two reasons

First of all, we have already established that being vaccinated, in addition to being naturally exposed a superior and of fur transmission and for the person being infected, and second, the difficulty in ascertaining whether someone truly had had the infection may mean that it's easier for us to the oats mandate, vaccination for everyone, we have other public policies that were we. We say you know we can sort out who is or is not supposed to do such a thing Some teenagers may be able to drink responsibly and some not, but we don't implement a palace. You're saying: ok, if your straight, I stood You can buy alcohol and, if you're, not you can't buy alcohol. No, we just save your teenager. You can't buy alcohol, so so you know we we may not want to have complex public policies. So while I would certainly talk about it. It's not unreasonable to imagine the people who survived the infection should not have to get back sedated. I think that would not be a crazy thing to discuss or even to implement. Generally speaking, I would be in favour of of of mandated vaccination and

again with the idea, not being we will arrest people or something but resemble. I dont think healthcare workers should be able to perform their duties without being vaccinated. When you got the doktor, you don't expect the doktor to infected with his disease. That was that's. That's the opposite of what you expect. When you go to a doctor, I think that hospital systems that mandate that their employees be vaccine are well within their rights and and they should do that Here I have not understood well how we can't have hospitals and other places where healthcare is dispensed, just met a method, the idea that we have twenty three percent of healthcare workers. Currently, I found out that I've seen a lot of cases recently where there was some resistance in various hostile systems, but in the end only a hundred or two hundred people simply refuse to vaccinate it, and- and you know we're- let go most of the time. What I've seen is that when that, when those things have been impulse

today they have been effective the same with a military. By the way, I never understood the argument in the military, because you know if you can order people to battle and they run run the risk of being shot and dying, why you can't ordered them to be vaccinated and What will the subjective, if, then, and that in fact, the military aid now now that the vaccines been approved army to said you're in the army now you're getting vaccinating? You know it's not it's not battle ready. You can have our breaks on ships or airfields or in the front lines of disease when you're trying to fight a war, so no we'd accident, you gotta, we do but the text to all of the controversy here. The fact that people think is an extreme imposition and to mandate. A vaccine in this case is the belief that there's something exist, ordinarily, concerning about these vaccines likely, you really are and solely the objection. Is that really what people say there saying you are trying to give me something d?

Terrorists are the real thing. You are trying to give me something against my will. Others Adam there's this bodily Tommy argument, but it does so anchored to believe here's what you get in this again this this wild West space. Crazy and dangerous Bobby Asian. There you'll get people say, listen, I'm not anti backs. I have had all of my standard vaccines and my kids, God vaccinated. I'm not one of these. We had over her yoga wearing wackos her, who is it and vaccines by outcomes. Was anti factors used to be primarily on the left right here right wing at evacuees, kind of a new phenomenon begone here, but from the he's vaccines in partake the immoral, nay back scenes. That's where I draw the line. I will then get the get. The Chinese get the sign of accuracy of warm vaccine which are inactivated virus vaccines of old technology like many

The vaccines you got get very or even Johnson, and Johnson Right is Sir Well Johnson, just as it is a new agenda virus factor, what they do is have took the debt. The astronomic, I think, took a chimpanzee cold via ass, which sounds really weird but doesn't staggered it doesn't sound but it's actually smart because we're not really affected by chimpanzee viruses like your dog can be sick in your house. Read you don't get the you, don't get the sickness that your dog has, because that viruses optimized to infect dogs, not human, so giving you a chimpanzee virus is just a way of trends. Transmitting has been genetically modified to express despite protein on its surface, you mountain immune response against spike protein, and you just use the so called a den of virus vector. Where the Johnson and Johnson uses a human it a mild human cold virus, that's been weakened even more, and then they add the spike protein to it. And then you that's how they deliver it.

Those are relatively new technologies. The the Johnson Johnson and Astrid Zena got a den of arson, although we have more of more precedent for those and we did for the amount of accidents but, like I said this, Nick Vaccine, the russian vaccine, the chinese axioms, those are based on older technology. If you want those get those right, what's yours What's your answer to that? If you are opposed to, I imagine will be hard to do if one were willing, but I'm sure in this case there not not willing yes, so to bring this sir. Because now we were hit in the three our Mark and you know you were now into one five people who already witnessed, and it's always with her eyes in three hours, of which, at least for me, I won't ever. You are the listeners manoeuvres, it's been great. What so, given we said, and given it you see the experience we have had over the last now coming up for up to two years. Almost. What would you expect in the case of a much more dangerous,

and lethal virus and will say we had the the tennis or worse verse. And hit us too. From now on. We have demonstrated that we can produce vaccines very quickly away. I've come to think that were sort of in the uncanny valley Here- would respect a pandemic where it's just not, as you said, is not dangerous enough to really and If I all political controversy, I gotta think that if ten per cent of people- or twenty percent of people were dying from covered. We wouldn't, having this conversation, I think that's right. People we gotta get in vaccination. Yes, I think that's exactly right and I think, like I said this virus was deadly enough to causes harm, but not at least offered uttered for us to take it sufficiently seriously, I think that if the next respiratory pandemic happens within our lifetimes or within thirty or forty or fifty years, we will do better. But if it has and more than that it'll be like people will forget

and this is why, by the way, plagues, have been a part of the human experience and our ancestors tried to warn state plagues or are in the Bible. Therein in Shakespeare there, either in the earlier today at the beginning of the begin of the Iliad, the oldest work of western literature, begins with a plague its APOLLO policy brings down the plague upon that the Greeks laid siege to Troy, so our ancestors Try to warn us about this. Human experience is awful thing known as a plague put it in our religious traditions it put in our literary traditions, and yet we didn't he. The warning of our ancestors and partly this is the in contrast, is one example with hurricanes so that residents of of districts are party, I say, Sir afflicted by hurricanes. When the meteorologist forecasts a hurricane that people get watch tv, they see the radar images, they know what to do when they take it seriously, because hurricanes come every year, two or three years, bad ones. Every and our twenty years. People remember and they take it seriously, but something that happens

at a time, interval of every fifty two hundred years out of human memory tends to be forgotten in this is, part of the whole denial problem we discussed earlier. So if the next pandemic occurs within the next ten or twenty or thirty years. I think we will do better, we'll take it more soon. It'll, be a lot of people that remember this cuban nineteen and pay attention and Furthermore, as you mentioned the word has changed in another way. I rarely I'm triumphal list about medicine, there count on one or two or two hands. The number of medical advances I think of radically improved human well being in a penny. Sellen is in that category insulin is in that category cats- cancer in that category, aspirin is in that category, but also in this category are am RNA vaccines. I think this is our radical new technology that our descendants, when faced with plagues, will have at their disposal a tool such that they can effectively and in real time build a defence. So I think a future present United States might say we have to take

a new pathogen, its serious we're gonna lockdown for four months. While our pharmaceutical companies make a vaccine and admit and make. Our demands are doses and then we're gonna efficiently distributed to you all and minimal loss of life. That is a realistic potential future and I think people might Be more willing to tolerate such a response in such a civic, a common civic purpose. Given this new technology, that's a bit And finally what what are you expecting over the next year or two or three anyone. When do we get out of hand ethnic mode with respect to covered and get into the the new normal of endemic illness. I got to assume the possibility of getting rid of cod. That isn't isn't exactly no one's mind had now we're not going

Riddick covered. For the reasons we discussed earlier, I- and I discussed this a little in the book like the phases of arrest ripened, I make the immediate phase the intermediate phase in the post bend them face. We're gonna enter the intermediate phase, as I had forecasts in twenty twenty two When we're going to reach recharge immunity, pretty much everyone in our country will either be vaccinated or infected and will have acquired immunity. That way and then then the Koran of ours will become endemic. It will circulate won't be eradicated, are still kill people, but the numbers will drop and it'll sort of become like another. Flew that'll be bad. But be kind of in the background. This is what happens with restaurant pandemics and then we're gonna have appeared if time in which were coping with the aftershocks, where all the kids that school are the workers lost their jobs. That kind of the great resignation of the rejection of our economy that the debts that we're gonna have to start to figure out how to repay our desks, there may be inflation because of the money the government borrowed, and so on those aftershocks and then I think that alas

a couple of years until twenty, twenty, four or so, and then I think, will enter a kind of postponed. The period a kind of roaring twenties of twenty percent, three somewhere, the roaring twenties of the twentieth century, where, finally, we will put the play behind us, where we will. You know people will feel we survived. You know we let's party, so I think I think that sort of gonna happen, we're gonna have, as I said earlier, another wave next winter, and eventually this will camp down. They did. The clinical impact will camped out soon within a year and epidemiological impact, will temp down, but then we're gonna have to deal with a psychological and social and economic aftershocks. In the nozzle events, we received and we'll see the other side of this, as our ancestors did, who also confronted Syria plagues expecting to need a booster every year indefinitely, or do you think I had whole class of corona virus Nell allow vaccine

yeah. So I think I think that I think that that the forecasts I just made depends sensitively on whether we see the emergence of new vaccine of aiding strains of the virus, the worst thing that could happened to us now would be that the virus we would have mutants are the virus which were much more deadly, but they kill. Ten percent of the people said of one percent. Or fully evaded the vaccine, if that were to happen. We would be back at square one neuron. I think the probability that have a kind of tail risk event is between one in ten percent. I think it's unlikely to happen, but it's possible, and that would be awful, really calamitous. If that were to happen where it We are fully vaccine evading strain, which only crime does not appear to be or if we had a much more lethal strain of the virus which only corners not so now Yes will rise from Ami Grown, not because each person, if infected with only one, is more likely to die than if infected with delta. No deaths will rise because a number of people infected.

It's gonna be much larger, because I'm going to so much more spread and has some possibly for immune escape. So we are going to see a bump, the United States. Is gonna lag Europe by about three or four or five weeks, so we should watch what's happening in Europe. In terms of deaths and their response, because that's gonna come to this country, so so, the general overarching forecast I gave. I think this is gonna, be one. Happens unless we have the emergence of something: that's not only grow, something that's Fully vaccine evading, which I dont think on me- Yes, but we don't know for sure yet at all. Deadlier, which I dont think I ll make renewed, but we don't know for sure. Yet if that happens, then we're back it's at Square one and so on on the boosters. I think if you ve had two shots You should get a booster. I got my booster, I think that's quite sensible. There is evidence that it will be helpful, including against romanian, and I think that there's a good possibility that we will have to go at corona virus shots in time interval between every year, like we do for flew in every ten.

Here is that we do for tetanus, so I can imagine a future in which every three to five years, you get your doctor that occur. Virus shot that you know is dated four at the latest strains of the virus. Well, I can't help but notice that, with a last name like restock as your well position to pronounce the name new Army, IRAN, I jumped when they first when they first they were using the greek alphabet, which only hasn't twenty four letters I was like. This is not enough. Yeah we're gonna. We should have used the Cambodian Alfred the Khmer Alpha, but I think that seventy four letters We're gonna run out of letters, and then there was also the political thing where they skipped from. They skip that the great, let's see here, right, yeah she alkali, which, like the giant later this year, what thing you know like offend the chinese leader, because we happened

as a greek ladder, you d be just an hour, they also skip new and you because be the new strain it was like people, would confuse it with any w. I think they should adjust stuck with. Then it would be called on going gonna because of the US anyway, thank you. Sam has been reopened you likewise, some thanks again for all your time and again, your book is Apollos Arrow, which is down paper back and audio, etc. Always greater talking Nicholas Until now ties Emmett reacts factually thanks. Man I'll talk to you later