Donald Trump becomes the first president in history to be impeached twice, ten Republicans break from the party over the vote, and Mitch McConnell weighs a conviction in the Senate. Then Stanford researcher Renée DiResta talks to Dan about online right-wing organizing and the spread of misinformation.
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome. Replied, save America. I'm John cover andean driver on the pod, one last impeachment for the road power
went down what will happen in the Senate and what it all means for the post, tromp Republican Party vandam, we'll talk to Stanford researcher Renee, director about online rightwing, organizing the attack on the capital and the spread of misinformation, but for
first, don't miss our other crooked pods this week, Representatives Karen Bass and Primula Jaya Paul or on hysteria to discuss, insurrection and impeachment and are good
friends him at the power who buy
just named as his next? U S idea administrator is on pod.
Save the world
Sam were very happy for you to check out that interview.
Also on announcements next Friday.
Crooked media's, editor in chief Brien Boiler, is launching the second season of Rubicon upon
ass they will walk you through the bite administrations. First hundred days,
trailer is out now new episode will drop every Friday starting January. Twenty second, so subscribe.
The Rubicon today on Apple podcast Spotify, if sticker or ever you listen to your podcast exciting stuff. Finally,
Andy is Martin Luther King Jr Day. So join us for the presidential inaugural Committees national day of service. We used to
these on em, ok day back in the Obama administration. For some reason, Trump ah didn't see fit to have these days of service of the last four years. Another back in the Bite administration
you can find covered, say, volunteer opportunities and ways to get involved at vote, save America, dotcom slush, volunteer
We will be off on Monday, but we'll be back with more pod. Save America on Tuesday I
get to the news on Wednesday has
representatives impeach Donald Trump for inciting violence, insurrection against the United States government by a vote of two hundred and thirty two to one hundred and ninety seven dropping
history as the only president to ever be impeach twice. In fact, half of all the impeachment we ve ever had have been Donald Trump
He also receive the most votes from his own party of any
each man and history with ten report
cons voting, yes, including list Cheney. The third ranking Republican in the house who said quote
There has never been a greater betrayal by a president of the United States of his office and his oath to the constitution. That is less
chinese quote. So you know
prompt leaves the White House with quite a
you bragging rights
Then it's now a virtual certainty that Trumbull not be removed from office before his term ends on Wednesday, the twentieth. We will talk about why, in a bit
but with that in mind, why was it so important to impeach him anyway? I'm not
Gonna do this often in the history of this part cast, but I'm gonna,
proving Lee Quote a Jamie.
This is the highest crime ever done by president,
even knowing that
we're gonna get a small fraction of the public support, even knowing that the eye
therefore move all before he made
office are virtually nil.
The odds that he is actually going to be convicted in the Senate are long. We think
we sit here right now. It is still
right thing to do, because you said it in your interests.
This is a man who incited an arm
to an assault on the cap at all the deaths of
number of Americans in the potential deaths of an honor
The number of people public servants, members of Congress, staff, AIDS, police officers- and this is
this president refused to acknowledge reality, refuse to abide by the traditions of a peaceful transfer of power, and he too people died because of it and
If we are fortunate enough, as a country as a planet as a democracy, to survive to the point where people can look back on this moment in history, there needs to be some marker. Did this it
presents a low point, an American
medical moral, social fabric and that this had to be done, there was no other option for Democrats to walk away from this. Even if, as
people's. It is as
if it gives terribly bad faith. People are cudgel about how Europe
indivisible and set a unifying there's had
began because what the present it was so far out of the bounds of what its what is acceptable and, frankly, legal in american politics that it had to be addressed. So there's two goals for impeachment: better work.
one is to ensure the doll trump is not allowed to run for office again. That can only happen if the Senate convicts him, which, as you said, those alone,
will talk about that. It may be able to happen if, under the fourteenth amendment, if you pass legislation brain boiler, also a great up in the New York Times this week about that should check it out
But so that that's one goal to prevent him from running for office again. The other goal is to ensure
but he does not incite further violence in the coming days and I
Think that whether or not he is convicted in the Senate
teaching him and holding over his head, the possibility that he may be convicted or removed from office in the next week actually may prevent him from
citing more violence and the evidence for that is what I like about this and the second to the fact that he has you know succumb to pressure,
you record videos where he is telling his supporters to not commit violence, do not break laws. Not gauge and vandalism like this
is some evidence already that Donald Trump is a little spooked by what the Congress is doing and even if he doesn't get convicted.
that means that impeachment will have been a good thing, because possibly it could at least reduce the chance that he will incite more violence possible,
I think. That's right. I will say that the normal cycle of when Trump does something that is absolutely horrible, is massive flow back.
followed by contrite. Tell us
After reading on video, somewhere
followed by a series of insane tweets that reopen the word to make things worse. He shut
be very out. He should be very thankful to Jack Dorsey
for banning him at least for this period of time is he has prevented his generosity,
taken the matches away from the baby, because who know-
you just imagine what we're metropolis watching hate watch.
CNN or even Fox or watching some of the insane. If it still happening on away n and NEWS Max in live tweeting it out.
the ever so it's hard you know like is actually could turn. I also think the address
inside of these contracts as its, I think it's what we re afraid of more consequences. I think it's free us what we train in real time, because the day
for the impeachment he go
to taxes and he gets
There is get on the plane and reporters are ass from seven. He does his usual bullshit
which is why everything I said was perfect,
I didn't say anything wrong ray. I added to Aithra any sort, fine people up again in everyone's. Like you know,
made a lot of. It was ok. Well now they ve got a peach because he's clearly doing is typical should again
a man, he pulls back again and does that video right. So he is at least in this pushing pole right now, because
is he has some fear? What might happen to know? I think it's not just impeachment. It is
Finance is like his his future. The fact that here
use twitter now like he is
Fraid of a number of different consequences that go beyond impeachment at this.
There. I didn't mean,
If you were to ask tribe to pick between getting impeached
or losing the Pga championship at a trump resort. He would
I definitely pick the former
My gosh, of course, I think,
One reason is important is because- and we should not lose sight of this- brought this conversation,
like the danger and the possibility of violence are not over, and you know
we ve got. Twenty thousand armed troops expected in Washington for the Bide inauguration. We get national guard member sleeping on the floor, the capital to defend them,
The joint chiefs are writing a letter so that the man,
Terry knows its job to defend the peaceful transfer of power and not Trump, which is crazy, that
have to do that. The FBI,
is telling police chiefs all across the country to be on high alert like those new threats and plots being discovered, and you know what she was like every few hours
We are by no means out of the woods just yet and everything that members of Congress people and
man, everyone can do to sort of reduce the possibility of violence. I think is important to do at this point and I think impeachment has to be one of those things. Yet.
That's really important because some of the
We are very focused on Trump and the political consequences it what it means.
Republicans and what it means for for twenty four is postponed central life by the way
all of the authorities are now acting about. Third danger at the inaugural is very alarming.
closing them all the there
a very, very real threat, some of them at one of the members of public most Congress who voted for impeachment bought body armor cause he's very worried for his life.
There there is a there has been a
I long history of right wing,
anti government white supremacists violent activity in this country
much of that has been ignored for the last four years.
Has Trump found it insulting to himself to or his
is to worry about violent, rightly militias, then
You have a president and an entire republican party to be clear. Who is egg them on,
for much of the last four years
but also very particularly in this post election period, and just me
tromp has lost its twitter account. Does it mean that threat of violence does not exist? Yeah? That is very important to understand, especially in the weeks ahead,
So what's it about trumps reaction, which, thankfully none of us
to read on Twitter. He did
does we mention film another hostage, video from the oval, where pants in his lawyer,
forced him to ask his supporters to refrain from committing any further violence as usual, the real trump shut up and twin stories from the one
imposed in the New York Times that say,
he's isolated and angry lashing out at AIDS for not defending him screaming about Mitch, Mcconnell and Kevin Mccarthy, betraying him pissed at Rudy Giuliani for charging expensive legal fees. That Trump reportedly is refusing to pay lived.
Twitter, the Pga Deutsche Bank, others for cancelling him and.
is still was still on air force. One fine detail:
as the other day telling anyone who will listen that he won the election so
Where is the most of this by talking about what all this means Republicans, but I do want to start with what this all means for how quickly and and hopefully permanently we can get Donald Trump out of our lives.
They apparently try to convince him to resign a few
is early, so he could possibly avoid conviction in the Senate and may be run again and twenty twenty four he refused, he said resigned.
didn't get mixed in anything
His lawyers are telling him to be careful what he says and does because they say he faces all kinds of legal exposure for possibly in,
fighting violence and also civil suits for possible. I possibly inciting violence as well, not just criminal exposure,
he still talking about trying to pardon himself so
there are some of the possible ways this ends for trump there,
so good for the rest of us at this point, other than convict
right, open conviction,
a relatively quiet!
seven days or whenever this is left, for he just gets on an airplane Ngos and no one pays attention to a maid, doesn't say anything and he has a lot of thoughts and he would tweet out but can't
You mean that right without a self part that, like that, that is the
the worrying issue where this is one potential benefit of the sword of Damocles
he's conviction hanging over him is
He said he did not want a resigned because he did not leave. My kids would pardon implication being he. Plants are pardoning himself.
that it would be a massively controversial act that would, at least on paper.
Potentially increase the chances that he would be convicted, and so the
The best case scenario is he does.
A thing says: nothing stays quiet and just leaves
and we don't pay attention to and that there is not
the coverage of him leaving he just gets on an airplane goes by
tomorrow, I go in lives out his days out of our sight.
Without creating any additional constitutional credit crisis is so
the best cases, his conviction and he can't run again, and then we really don't have to worry about not much, but if he's not convicted right here
sounds like you said, visit all kinds of legal exposure, some that he can
I depart himself out of though its unclear that that will work on the federal level. Other legal
closure on the state level, as particularly in the state of New York, that he can't pardon himself out of that he will still face when he leaves office. He is in a ton of debt.
He is losing money left and right because he's losing all kinds of business deals over his conduct. He he's got banks,
putting him down saying, there's a lindorm anymore.
And like you said, he's cut off from communicating
his favorite via his favorite channels, right
twitter and also Facebook and Instagram and like how many
how many mainstream media organizations are just going to sit down for interviews with Trump now, all the time right? I'm sure you still going to be able to call in to Fox friends when everyone is going to be
news max away any who know these try do the media company, but I think you
having a good case the best case here, barring conviction is that he is isolated, broke and alone for the next couple years in, like you, so we don't hear my from, which is a possibility, I sort of
you're not going ass. Now that are presented thank but have you ever seen the Simpsons episode where Mr Burns becomes a coward years? That's
How that sort of how I imagine tromp, is basically by himself unshaven wearing kleenex boxes for slivers adds worthy and paranoia to Germany.
But isolation till the end of his days, with just dance give you know their to clean. The latrine yea me like that.
the thing that should make us all feel good, as he does seem miserable
it seems very, very miserable and angry, which is always you know I I I wish him nothing but suffering for the rest of his I mean my senses he's basement.
every day of his life and that sort of how we got in this situation. That is true, too
Picture you paint
mildly. Encouraging, I would say, is that all those things email he has gigantic financial problems. He has gigantic legal problems here.
Being banned from twitter is a gigantic deal for him
but you can already see the difference in his his in his.
He is afraid to engage with mic mainstream.
outlets or even met anybody out right now and his ability to adjust shaped
conversation or insert himself.
Into the political dialogue has been eliminated. Indeed, he is,
which, by the way, is why we ve been complain about the media for the last four years in like not challenging him enough, because
when he is challenged by a reporter. He doesn't like it, which is why he uses twitter because he can get his message out their unchallenged. That's the
point: that's why he uses the fuckin media. I mean I don't feel like you would be. It's my place
defend the media on this, and I think it like this
the probably always have is the media right. We say the media like what does that mean? Why, as you say, look by the end, you had a Jake Tapir Interview with Savannah Guthrie Interview, a Chris wallet and of your Jonathan Swan Interview, again
those are the interviews where reporters actually challenged Donald Trump and they were disasters for
and even in the press,
Tradition all mainstream reporters would ask him hard questions, but he does have a home field advantage that he could pivot to the away and plants. The
faithful writers, like John Roberts out from Fox City, there is always of our home basic and go to bed. Twitter was where he got to set the two
of the conversation, and that is out of him any more. You can already feel the difference after just a few days.
I Elizabeth Republican Party,
The relationship with Trump, but before that, their capability for the attack on the capital
most of them repeated the lie that the election was stolen from Donald Trump hundred forty seven members of Congress,
to overturn the results. The election just hours after right wing extremists try to overturn the results through violence dont want to let them go
never letting that go one of the extremists,
Alexander has claimed that he directly conspired to derail the certification of the election with three
Republican members of Congress
bigs of Arizona Mo Brooks of Alabama, impose our Arizona and untrue
the evening democratic represent.
Mikey Cheryl of New Jersey made a startling revelation during alive strewn with reporters? Let's play a clip,
We can't have democracy, it members
Congress are actively helping the president
in this house.
and so not only driving tends to see that the president has removed and never runs for office again and doesn't have access to classified material
I also intend to see that those members of Congress and embedded him
Conversely, have groups coming through the capital that I sign generate. Fed
since the next day is members of Congress cited, the silent crown,
members of Congress
attempted to our president, Angela
see that their houses,
ensure that they answered and harmless, but that is in a sort of explosive charge.
She followed up with a number of other members of Congress for calling for a full investigation into that possibility, which is put mean. That was not just an off the cuff statement. You made a very seriously former military official, and so that's not something that he says lightly. What can be done about any of this? I guess, ranging from the Republicans who lied about the election being still
From Donald Trump, all the way to Republicans who were potentially collaborating and helping the people who attacked the capital.
many people going to these people are set their set to be around for years after trumpet.
And at least two years some of these congressmen
most of them, because a gerrymandering and polarisation and accept our hour in incredibly safe, sits there.
More likely to lose you someone crazier than them, then too,
when more say either in a primary
the Orange revolution, and that is deeply saddened. Scary, Stephen about our politics.
there needs to be a fall in
navigation into who played what role in this and
if they actually did do what is suggested here and were involved?
lived in helping people gain
access to the capital, helping people
understand where people were in the capital, like Lauren bearer, that that name or member-
Yeah Bogart actually know what she's not worthy of a correct pollination, the God wielding conspiracy theorists
New Congress alternate alright I'll ride out with Twitter
Nancy plus he's location during.
events according to reports which she was every twenty in a corner of what she was doing so in contravention of security officials telling everyone
not to use social media
All those who want to be investigated, and if it if there is evidence that suggest they played a role in this of the conspiracy to overturn an election and take a capital and potentially do harm to
of Congress and the vice President states. They should be expelled from Congress and brought up on judges that we do
now that absolutely has to be done, and that is
partisan issue. That is that as a legal issue masculine,
More broadly- and this is always the danger, whenever trumpets- invite
then something is. He has such
Shiny object that he distracts from the culpability of everyone else,
Public and party, as a policy position, decided
to fuel a series of wise who overturn election
we have to hold. We can never let that we have to hold him accountable for it. We have to ensure that that it we'll talk about it,
maybe the corporations that have set organist not given to the public do that they don't take the data as soon as the spotlight goes off. They don't go back to it. It
ass to be that telling,
eyes about an election for the purpose of undoing the bull. The voters is outside acceptable politics and that you will pay a price for doing that.
Cannot be just yet another tool in the toolbox to gaining political power it in there
down from the ship to the Overton Window in so many dangerous ways, but this
the kind of thing when it becomes acceptable practice, that's it for democracy, that's where it falls apart. I mean
you know, Gregg Sergeant the Washington Post today has a memo from trumps him.
intelligence agencies saying that it
is the lie about the election
but somehow it was stolen from Donald Trump that there was fraud that gave you actions you Joe Biden that
is inciting domestic extremists, violent domestic extremists in this country and until republican politicians
step up and refuse eight that lie explicitly get up and say
Joe Biden, one this election, fair and square. Every republican politician is to say that and if you dont say that you should not be taken
seriously and you should be driven from office immediately, and you should be. I mean this that it's not that
the lie a lot of these Republicans, and then we can talk about why they did or did vote for impeachment yeah. I got it
tromp actually inside the, but no what
The root of all of this, the root of all of this is the lie that a free and
election was neither free nor fair and it was
and it is a lie based on a whole bunch of different conspiracy theories and that have been fed to a large part of our population
and over the last several months? And if you hear
every single day that you went out to vote in someone
stole the election from you that your vote was your ballot,
was thrown out or that there were. You know, machines that did this or that if you hear that you're gonna be angry and some people are gonna be angry enough that they're gonna do with
did last week. That is the line
for everything else and republic. We cannot move past any of this until Republicans repudiate that lie. That's it this
like what happened. The capitals incredibly shocking
It is also so utterly fucking, predictable
when you re, when you re not just a campaign, you spend a decade saying the Democrats
a radical anti american socialists who are good
stronger your way of life
at the same time the
you're telling you to buy, as many guns is humanly possible, to protect yourself from a govern.
It staff by a deep state who are in league with so
the west or a ring of
files or global leader, Sir, in play out of you.
If you have that end of times message and then you tell people that the election was an illegitimate and stolen you're gonna
up in this situation.
It is course people have been warning about this in warning about it more menu like oh, crazy,
panicky liberals back off. No, this is what happened. This is the exact and resolve of decisions, not just Donald Trump made Rupert Murdoch May
Fox NEWS made Mitch Mcconnell made portray. Image of this is the end result of more than a decade of right wing republican messaging.
yeah. It's lie built on my bill time I, and at first they seem like small eyes, and then they seem like bigger lies, and the
action was stolen, we don't actually live in a democracy is the biggest
I was the biggest live all that was the one that finally did it when you tell people that they have
An election was stolen from it's. Not
It's, not a small fucking, typical political. I that's a very big lie that has huge consequences and we saw those consequences last week. So
Let's talk about the politics of this inside the republican Party. There were
ten how's Republicans who support impeachment again most
actions from the same party in any impeachment ever, but also less
five percent of the entire caucus at the same time, will you
surprised by the number and reuse
eyes by any of the ten Republicans
busy. Much has changed since last impeachment. Twenty nineteen, when zero Republicans voted in favour of impeachment. Now we have ten. So what what what changed and where you surprised,
again. This is. It is very hard to even talk about this because.
when you say, is the most Republicans. Ever most people from the other party support impeachment talk about a small sample size
in part that citizens completely skewed because
Richard Nixon would have had to face an overwhelming impeachment. Were he to have actually faced that he just left before that happened,
and then you say
Ten is a lie,
but it's such a small percentage republicans doing the right thing in the faith in
but not to the
covering of some corruption,
in the face of an assault on their place of work with their wives, were at risk. Their staffs were at risk and still
the small number of voting for it is
alarming on so many levels about where we are as a country and where the Republicans our meat,
is one that surprising. Its was Cheney for sure like this,
say someone who is a plus forty Trump district, somewhat
the issue- has designs Iron
even more prominent role within the Republican Party there and set out a running for something in the middle.
For present one day, but this is she's a chain
she is a member of the republican royalty and for her to be
not just what tromp, but with
Other members of leadership is a big deal,
gives Cutty gave cover to a lot of these other Republicans. There were also in it districts that most of them are in debt.
So Trump wine somewhere in,
you no more narrow wins by Trump by it- gave some other people cover, and I think if this change
the number was ten, which is a small number, but if
this Cheney had not said she was going support this. That number might have been closer to three or four. I I was pleasantly surprised by ten
because of the way this Republican Party is and because of the political incentives they have and they operate within because, like
No most of these people up
every every one of them, every one of the ten has to
about a primary challenger from the right. At best,
worst, as you said,
have to worry about harm,
coming to them and their families right they got
the guy from Michigan just visit, is wearing body armor. Now Peter Mahar right,
in addition to that, Jason Crowd, Democratic Colorado said that he talked to a number Republicans who wanted to vote from peach meant but said they couldn't because they're afraid for their families. So is. It is
of course, like the least they can do. The right thing to do is to vote from Peter, and I get that
I wouldn't underestimate the risk to these members of voting for impeachment
and the fact that that
did that I was actually. I was a bit surprised that we with it. We got all the way up to ten.
even though they were afraid
even though their lives or threatened as happened at the capitol. I just thought I don't. I don't have much faith in this version of the Republican Party
not just because they are cowards, but also because, like I like he said, I think they're probably worried about their safety, which
If you are worried about
your own supporters kill every year in the wrong place at various times. Looked down at the tiger you chose to ride, he couldn't take it totally totally agree with that totally agree. Now
post minority later Kevin Mccarthy didn't with this vote
meaning that he did,
lean on Republicans devote against impeachment. He told everyone to their conscience. He also was critical of tromp and tried to weasel out of this with the censure resolution.
Why do you think, even from a party that is sort of a big deal, because he has been one of trumps, most loyal foot soldiers, henchmen? You wrote in the message box today he was one
on a time curative star bursts for its policy.
from carrying starboard to censure resolutions on the floor, the cabin Mccarthy stories and what happened? What happened with Catherine Mccarthy? I
I think the primary driver with Kevin Mccarthy here is money, since this
capital, a number of major? U S. Corporations has said there are no longer going to make donations to the members of Congress who voted to overturn the election
that is almost all of Kevin, Mccarthy's, cautious and
He and will not wait, I'm on the column and separately, but both of them are trying to. I think, show the other part of the party, not not the rat,
right wing base for the party, but the corporate wing
funds the rabbit right wing base that they cannot go, get it
and they're going to offer them an on ran to reopen donations. I can only imagine chemical,
So here we have a great chance. Take the house were good. Democrats are really go to grassroots fund raising,
where it we're really gonna raising large donations from rich people corporation for us,
relax. I imagine
calls from the super backs, the National hold congressional committee to there
local to their donor base of guide, not well since then, and so this is
The a way to give
the company is a or these donors. A path back to supporting Republicans is my guess:
I think its money think that's right, I also think it's the politics of the house raises in twenty twenty two, like Republicans heavy
A two good have a chance to take back the house and twenty twenty two, partly because of redistricting bill control, lottery, deserting they'll redraw, the maps are that is unfavourable to Democrats, and yet you know, Mccarthy has a bunch of Republicans in districts.
are pretty evenly divide it that we had one in twenty eighteen in and then they took back and twenty twenty. So like say your David validate right in in California, who tobaccos eaten in in twenty that Republicans lasted twenty eight
in or say that your might Garcia right who beat Christie Smith in the California twenty Fifth another very closely divided district. The Democrats can easily wind or should be able to win
so like either. You have.
two of those incumbents who you know that
They voted for impeachment MIKE.
see I voted to overturn the election. They two different votes, be either you
yet those you get those members primary
from the right, which makes the general election republican candidate weaker.
their farther to the right in a pretty even district, or you get a
republican member, who is
You get him incumbent who doesn't get a primary challenge, but is now unpack.
Go to a broader electorate because they either voted against our comes up.
or voted to overturn the election. Like I'd, I think he has some political issues ahead of twenty twenty two. That does not make this very easy for him to just go on one side or the other, but try,
step is trying he's busy trying to straddle this. By saying, like I criticized Trump, but I didn't totally abandoned trump, which
I dont know if that is a move. That gets you anything by the way, but
It seems like that's what he's trying to do.
yeah. I think your critical analysis is exactly right about these districts and skills
Are these also? It should be noted. A fucking idiot he's one of the dollar
Congress who sort of stumbled upwards in the leadership.
By just being simply too dumb to offend. Most people were muscle
because a lazy, if I find critically offensive by
we're how this vote or not.
vote or censure press release, guess what it ass. He knew Democrats repeated him, so he could for the central idea Endeavour actually have to act on it
in a gives, is the number of
public events are uncomfortable with Trump generally in their particular. What happened is larger than ten and
this gave? Some of them are placed to say I would it
not for impeachment, for its divisive, its unnecessary, like whatever reasons, but I would have censured him a place to go,
That's dead been that's for some of them. Whether
be anyone's. Remember that care about that in November. Twenty twenty two, maybe I'll, just be added and make its November twenty twenty two just generally so
I was ass. They like, if drivers, know a factor then like Donald Trump,
and his minions are gonna, go through the list and everything
doesn't matter. If you didn't
four impeachment, but you did say something critical anyway.
Public in this at anything critical about Donald Trump. During this whole episode will be on his shirt
lest it will be eligible for a primary, excessive you're, not running away from that you're not trying to pull some move. Now. Are you yes to censure? No to impeach man you're going to slip through the cracks here, like you're fucked.
I like it so that that's why I think either you
go all in and SAM breaking from Donald Trump and I'm gonna impeach him, and I think this is
and you know damn the political consequences but we'll see- or you know you decide to be. Why does
was just like now he's wonderful on supporting Donald Trump to the very end, I feel
being in the middle, doesn't really get you much politically dead. I mean that is a lesson in politics. Outside of this pick aside, right right,
the people who vote present rarely get reelected re rigs
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sitting athletic greens dot com such cricket? Again, that's athletic greens, dotcom, slash cricket, so those are the republican politics in the house. Let's run of the politics in the Senate, which is where this going next
Mcconnell is majority leader until the twentieth, which means that he controls the calendar until then
he said he's not holding a trial until Biden is inaugurated, but on,
Your times are poorer than Mcconnell Quote told associates that he believes President Trump committed in peaceable offences and that he is pleased.
the Democrats are moving to impeach him, believing that will make it easier to purge him from the part Mcconnell
these two statement yesterday after the story that said quote, while the press has been
speculation. I have not made a final decision on how it will vote and I intend to listen to the legal arguments when they are presented to the Senate. So now
not nagging story that, first of all, what are you
thoughts on the timing of the trial and what it means for both trumps chances of conviction and the first few weeks of buttons presidency
every day passed, the assault on the capital reduces the chances,
conviction and every day passed Trump getting on an airplane,
heading to Florida, reduces the chances Commission
It becomes easier and easier. The further fades into memory, the easier it becomes for Republicans to do. The wrong thing
We know that the calculus simply changes in it,
and I can see, I don't agree with her-
Imagine you can see this world where it's like he's gone now. Why would I put the
the danger, if you're, in a situation where this man is,
An existential threat in my vote could make America.
safer, even if it's for two days three days for days than that
you can see someone may be potentially taking up a politically risky vote, but if it's just
They, if the only thing it dies, is.
Keep him from running for in office that he may or may not run for then I think the chest of conviction go down.
I think they got out, but I think that's why I've
been saying that Denmark, that should be the primary message from people who want him impeached is that we should prevent this dangerous man from ever running for president again, because I do think it's hard to have a message after he's out of office. That says we want to come.
liked him just her just to punish him right just to have him mark on history right like that? That's it is the right.
To do. I want him to have that bad mark in history as well. I want, I believe, in a kind of billowy, but I think you want a frame it as this vote to convict will have an important consequences which is preventing this danger from happening again in the form of Donald Trump running for president, and so I would,
start making that the main message in the next week or so because you're right, like everyone, has short memories. No one
I can remember anything ever in this country anymore,
so every single day. We got you can totally Joe Biden
in a given inaugural address, he's going to talk about the country
coming together, work Donald Trump,
can it be gone and there were ever trial in the Senate, never going to say its super important to convict him. Yet it's gonna be tougher, and so the only
the only argument you have is which I think is an important argument- that we can't let this guy running. That is the best
substantive arguments and it's the
as political argument for that country, the
Much is trumps. Approve already has dropped in over the past ten days. His,
a programme, Republicans is still north of eighty percent, and so
Your step, you are still trying to convince Republicans.
Who almost entirely represent republic in states too
voted overwhelmingly for Trump to stop the most popular Republican
money again like that, like from a political point airway, while this I mean you know, and we ve been, we ve been doing this over the last couple days like
look, look at the list of republican centres need seventeen to convict began.
Collins Mc Caskey, Romney SAS to me, I was too
five because they ve all said he should resign. He should be removed wherever they haven't said. Definitely, yes on a conviction, none of them
but you would imagine those of the first five. So that's five.
Being from that five to seventeen is pretty fuckin her
when you start looking at that list and that it will
iris. Basically, you know twelve,
People who were in very rare
look can read: states who say fuck, I'm gonna do this. So
Which brings us back to Mitch Mcconnell how
important as Ms Mcdonald vote to the final outcome here.
I think, if Mcconnell votes for it, you will almost certainly get to seventy. You get those out. You
that extra twelve. Then that is a decision that is
party wise decision to throw trot
overboard because they think that is what is best for the party in the locker. That's without would be.
What's so what I mean
He just talked about how, like you could imagine.
I had been imagining mitya calculations to play out. Like we just said, look we just
get to the inauguration here. Once more.
And his inaugurated people will start forgetting about this. There won't be as much urgency they'll be other business to do in the Senate. Binds can have his car
nations that we can yell about, we can try to obstruct his economic agenda. Do we really need to be do people really care at that point? Four convict and Donald Trump after he's gone, I'm just gonna wait. This
Why did Mitch Mcconnell decide to let it be known in the New York Times that he was happy about impeachment, which
was not just. Some leak was clearly here
was happy that it was in the New York Times. He did not refute it. He sort of
that statement yesterday worries at all, I have made a final decision yet, but we
Mcconnell and Mcconnell world if they didn't
that story? They thought it was wrong. They were knocked down immediately. So clearly he was happy that was there, why
I think it's connected to the point I made
the republic and the rolling donor class is a huge part of it. Second,
the trial boy. I think he wants to see what the reaction is due
Did he get beat up from the right
Dialogue is the. Does the parlor crew come after him dead? Do here,
member? What are we members say to him? You know it's it's a tradition.
trial balloon because
it's done hands off enough adhesion not taken,
He is plausible deniability to this point and then can decide in the end to do something different
If you were to do his political calculation and
Only makes political decisions this is not
it is. He has not been shot,
into understanding the rognes of his ways, he is not
come to some sort of conclusion about them round. It is not doing its them. I think he's too for political reasons.
Mr Cot all wants to take the Senate back and twenty twenty two. He has a very good opportunity to do that because of the historical advantage that the
Eddie out of power has in the first matter
the challenge she has is
He is going to have to hold a bunch of seats in Pennsylvania, which Joe Biden one narrowly, but one was content with
Joe Biden, one even more narrowly, but one
he's. Gonna have to defeat a democratic Georgia. He asked
hold the seat, Arizona, Arizona, North Carolina, a state.
Another narrow see, and we know
Two thousand and eighteen that thee
Republicans can win these states with
tromp levels of turn out what does
That work is a fired up. Group of Democrats
plus a bunch of former Republicans independent, suburban voters who have sour on the Republican Party and
Minister turnout among robots, and so with
he thinks he's not gonna get because tribe is that
did not have an even in twenty a team in these purple states, with Trump off the bat
but trot in some sort of diminished capacity in legal proceedings in debt in hiding
he has to solve the suburban problem to take these seats or hold this is. I would not underestimate the role that the Georgia run. Ops played in Mcconnell and Mccarthy and other republican politicians calculations this week
because, in those run, offs Republican saw their future
no trump on the ballot, and yet
I'm still around trying to make trouble for them. Democratic coalition
energized and turns out, particularly because now the demo,
had a coalition has college educated, the college, kids
Paul, who turn out more than any other group. In addition to
in Georgia, black voters who turned out
may ever had in history, and if you combined
well educated voters with black voters. You have a formidable coalition and can win in many of these states in many of these,
states and you had Republicans divided in turn out depressed because they were divided and because there is this fight between Trump and Republicans.
And that's why they want to run off that Republican should run, and I think Mitch, look
that Georgia and Kevin Mccarthy looks it districts that look like Georgia and thanks to himself, I
have to somehow fucking win these in twenty twenty, two and you're right, like the this states. That report
Kids are defending also that you named are also may all be open seats to me, retiring Pennsylvania, RON Johnson may retire in Wisconsin, burs, gonna retired North Carolina in
grassy may retire in Iowa. You may have
open seat? The Democrats could pick up and then the Democrats have to defend
Arizona, Georgia, and maybe Nevada, are the three. The dark eyes have defence would say,
not an easy map from its Mcdonald's relative. It is very hard.
even though, as you said, he has the big advantage he has is that it's. You know that the party in power and turned out your election and so
the party not power, tends to do well in mid term elections. That's the advantage he has, but other
The map itself is not very favourable to Mcconnell. So I think that
really think that Georgia is one of the big calculations that he's making right now, which is how do we win
somebody's suburban voters, that's right, given
Georgia is the
we're Democrats get the benefit of the type of turn out that
we have seen since tromp was elected and republican C b downsides of not having trouble about, and if that dynamic is in place in twenty one,
to Moroccan certainly are taking the Senate and are patch of the house, which
easier than add to the Senate, for map raises a gerrymander reasons. Is that gives very narrow, very quickly.
so the the other big republican leader who had it with Trump is my pants may have had something to do with our trump tried to bully
into illegally overturning the election results. By saying in a meeting according to the New York Times quote, you can
either go down in history as a patriot or you
go down in history as a pussy, the washing
most goes on. To quote former robbed me: strategist, Stuart, Stevens, assaying of pants quote. He has now
future in the Republican Party, when the base
the party is not booing you but chanting. Hang you that's about
That is a bad sign. I do agree with that sentiment from Stewart
didn't. I can't say that I'm too broken up about, might pencils political challenges. Can you
Now now I've been as
for now that argument disturbing as good as he did B b
you're a fucking minimum.
He decided not to be legally not to engage
impotent likely to fail attempt to overturn an election, and here
Response to the poor
it is going to rally
attacking him firing up his supporters who then storm the building which might pensive Israel
with chance of hang my pants MIKE fences, bold crater
responses to do nothing, nothing right, not to
speak out publicly, not to interrupt the twentieth amendment not to
stop coming to work in looking trumps boots it
to do nothing to be
quietly pissed is basically and just have quotes from his staff in him to be no background, reporters that he's really angry doesn't like Donald Trump anymore, I'm into the
putting trump aside, which is hard to do that
population of Trump, which you know. Obviously, the Republican Party system still
son is also a repudiation of Trump ISM. Now, of course, it's not
easy to define exactly what Trump ISM is, but a bunch of assholes
publicans losing their shit over the fact that they have to wear masks but can't bring guns on the floor of Congress is a pretty of
pretty good indication of what we are dealing with here. So what
they like is does any of this is any of the actions any Republicans have taken or anything they ve said over the last week indicate any kind of
repudiation of Trump ISM itself. Now there is no
suggestion for that and the the
and this is, if, like
that's your time story. The quote about Mcconnell is about purging trump from the party
If you really want to do that, that is a big project
that involves you're gonna, have you have dead involves d,
attic lies your base. It involves star.
to enable all these right wing media personalities. It is a conversation with Rupert Murdoch to stop the shit. It is about getting handed
It took her Karlsson
if the air or doing or some other sort of performative bullshit than what they are doing, it is stopping going
parallel with stopping. Why like old,
Firstly, why the the scary thing here is
it may be is republics, are simply looking for a more capable white supremacist demagogue to run their party because
wit Trump ISM can only exist in a world where our
Democracy is so reg that a minority of the population has a disproportionate share of political party. Lay there is a path
that says we could maybe, when it twenty twenty two parts,
we are lucky when it twenty twenty four, but over the long run, because
changes in this country demographically. We are fought
so what we have to do is we have to change? What we stand for, we have to change who we are. We have to change, which voices we all of it. We need an agenda that appeals to the budget.
Already of Americans, we
you hold ourselves accountable to that by stopping
efforts to stop other people from voting. It requires actually embracing the future of this country.
There is nothing that suggests that any republican of any consequence is open to that level of change and what the
the parties that that was basically the autopsy after twenty twelve that they were right, which is like whether there was a
future for the Republican Party, where you could still be. You know
cutting taxes and getting rid of regulations is screwing all the poor people who love to screw.
you're going to embrace immigration form? You were over to embrace the changing diversifying America and you actually to try to go after latina vote
as black voters, not just with some like crappy red,
but to actually have policies that would attract those voters to your party and those are problem.
hence our mostly never trump Republicans or we ve become Democrats. Now they have been put forth from the party, and I do think that
even some of the Republicans, you know,
we ve said only last week
Nancy MACE, who beat Joe Cunningham right
and she talked about how this
crazy- and you know that
He went on members of the carcass her crazy and she was talking to have new
paper about how the voters
brainwash by road and she voted against impeachment at the end of the day because she goes
where the future of the party is right and such like. We have to have this one
watching her say in this story: we have to have this long coming.
Vision, but how to not brainwash these voters Balboa, but, like you didn't vote for impeachment. Why? Because you're scared, because you think that's where the parties- and so I don't think, you're right, I don't think it's a repudiation of Trump ISM, at least not for
ninety per cent of that party, an that's that's! The real party use
I think it is do something it creates,
it's a divide or a split with
and the Republican Party that is problematic to their political fortunes
potentially, but what I think you and I were having this conversation via text about
conall and it mechanics greatest fear is always a divided republican party.
I think Mcconnell is betting, that opposition to a democratic agenda will unify various parts of the parties. Have people put aside?
Are there differences, at least until the twenty twenty four republican primary, as it did for the Democrats,
in a rapidly to dissolve is done is done throughout history. That's that's! How politics works. The Republican
party is a coalition visited in a state of chaos,
the tension between
a nationalist base rebel,
on racial, divisive rhetoric and aid
our class that finds that base in exchange for tax cuts, less regulation, etc. At this hour
kids are the concern of policies that benefit them economically and
what has happened since election brought. You don't sort of
two fray that that Fustian bar
and I think
Mcconnell, trying to fix that the short term on the back that his
They will re United Opposition to Joe Biden
Campbell Harris all the others.
see all the other Democrats he's just trying to tread water until then, until I reckon they can focus on on Joe Biden and common heritage
So, let's at about where the voters are because that's that's one thing that we haven't really focused on yet
On one end,
the proliferating, is nearing record lows between thirty and forty percent, depending on the pole,
clear majority of voters blame him for the attacks.
It was smaller majority want him removed from office.
On the other hand,
approval among republican voters has taken a hit, but not that much of a hit he still getting,
in seventeen eighty percent approval in Franklin's conducted a pole of
trump voters over the weekend with some fairly disturbing results. Ninety one percent said they'd vote for tromp again in if the TWAIN when election was do over
nearly eighty percent than the election, was stolen. Forty
nine percent, a combined forty,
nine percent, believe
either Antigua Democrats or the media were responsible for the attack on the capital, while only eleven percent blame Trump and Sixty
four percent. This is the most disturbing one. Sixty four percent agree with the statement quote,
The traditional american way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it. So I don't know your Mitch Mcconnell
Kevin Mccarthy, any Republican who wants to run in twenty four or even in twenty two for Congress, and you look at those numbers. What's your response to that.
Well, you can their leader you can follow in here,
The reasoning of the public a party is too, is the base. Is the tail
wags the dog
There is an alternative you can take. It differ
wrote. You can try to leave them to a more, not just pull
fifthly, palatable position but patriotic position. You can look at this and see the danger of where we are
try to change it or you can try to weapon eyes it?
every juncture there
The parties try to weapon eyes that
Is there any hope they will do anything different.
I'd like to think so. There's no evidence of that to be the case, but that is the
That is not just like. My final is critically unpaid
person, even with his own party, he is at
absolutely horrendous speaker he. Basically, if you watch on television, is basic just like the embodiment of the congressional almanac.
Marbles and his mouth, like he's, not someone who is going to read the parties in the promised land from public public? This is
A larger projects, it involves people, we found the parties involved, the Murdoch's or the absolute episode of everything that happened here.
What I was going to say like
when we talk about like the bit. You know
public and politicians are afraid of the base rate, or they do whatever the base wants the what the base wants
more than anything else, not by
republican politicians are saying, with the exception of Donald Trump, but by
right, wing, media extremists and, in fact done
crop is probably the one, the most prominent figure that fuses a right wing media figure with the republican politician because he comes from the media world. But like
who is right. Who was rubbing up this base? Who radicalizing this base its up Mitch? Mcconnell Kevin Mccarthy, that's none of these people are listening to.
I can show unity in Tucker Carlsson and Lord Ingram and rush limbo in all this,
crazy lunatics on Youtube and Facebook and all the rest on like that's who
is revving up this base and into you solve that problem you solve nothing, that's accurate does is accurate.
What is it? What is that? What is this scenario in which Donald Trump comes back for twenty twenty four right,
so they so in that in that one's Paul they also did. He also did a trial heat for twenty twenty four trumpet get sixty
five percent. In that trial, eight pence,
four percent crews. Fourteen Don Junior seven Nicky Hayley, seven Mitt Romney, five Rubio vodka for percentage.
That's your fuckin nightmare already, just give it to you here in January, twenty twenty one, that's the first trial, so like
It does seem like right now, even with all that happened, Trump is still.
far and away the front runner for twenty twenty four, which again is the good arguments for fuckin convicting. The guy
It is always true
the person who just lost a presidential election is the front runner the next time around. In the immediate aftermath correct it was general area, it was Al Gore, it was Mitt Romney like.
It was Hillary Clinton like that's that's what poles do. He has the highest name, recognition, Thorpe
when people are helped up on a bunch, a wise about it, which Bruce those numbers
we're not making productions. That's not a thing that has changed now that tramples on his way out
but there are lots of scenarios that show trumped just sort of fading into the background he lost his ability to communicate. He asked
ass, a business and legal trouble that prevent him from ever running, rethink in front of a present again here he doesn't like work running for president would be a lot of work critically in this situation,
but if you were to say, what's the alternative, we're tromp returns to the good graces of Republicans, it is
a bunch of twenty twenty two primaries between man,
The candidates, in other Republicans, a world in which brain kept the guardroom Georgia faces a primary from Doug Collins, a Trump supporter
storms, the country forum, beats a bunch of people, raises a ton of money and shows that he still has hold the republican base. An republic
What happens then? Is republic?
come back to him. They are now afraid to oppose him and he.
President he's, either a major voice in the party helping shape
The agenda the message through his post on parlor: whenever you can, we call
a parlay and on what you got those by the fact that forty runs for president again right. It is, I think, the Richard Nixon prior to what are you,
after losing both united
sixty percent rice and then a subsequent run for governor Return,
to power by getting people
evolved, intimate terms, raising a bunch of money and having a bunch of his candidates win which,
I'm a clean bill of advocating the key
that they have to not just when the primary, but they have to when the general. If Trump goes out and backs a bunch of primaries that take down Incumbent republic
and then the cattle,
he backed, are so far to the right that they then lose the General Election Benes fact. But if Doug
and winds in Georgia. If you know he that
whoever he backs against Liz Cheney beats less Jamie and Wyoming. If this starts happening across the country, then you're right.
And then there is a clear path. Factor
I'm not sure Lucy in the general election. It would be as devastating. Is that, because
what, if you want to run for president
because it is a republic
in primary and, if he's demonstrates its strength with Republican, primarily voters and remember what
begins care most about individually, is a potential primary challenge. So, if
a way to avoid a primary challenge is
be supporting Donald Trump, welcoming Donald Trump, pretending that he did
almost all of them killed, then that is more. That is likely now
and he did and if he hears
someone who is traditionally recent his first present,
you raised a bunch of money from traditional, big
If you were someone who needed money from big donors, you can have a giant west. Yes,
very problematic if you seem unelectable, but he could
his money with all
the various lists that he has.
Whence came from people etc, so there I don't think the path back to power
four trump is likely necessarily, but that's just what I think you would look like them.
we're likely scenario is he is bogged down in a bunch of legal shit in most people don't go anywhere.
Him. He just becomes a sad public figure.
You don't hear from a much because he's not on twitter and you're, not watching foxen friends. Every morning
and he may not even be on Fox in France. He may just beyond newsman news away and which most people want see.
So one last very important figure in all of this Joe Biden expressly United States
who release a statement last night where he urged the Senate not to let impeachment prevent them from also confirming his nominees in passing, is economic agenda and, of course, by
We need at least some republican corporation to get none budgetary legislation passed does
happened in these last few weeks change anything about binds ability to work with Republicans already. We ve seen you in that new. Your time story about Mcconnell, it said Mcconnell talked Abiden said he likes the idea of Merrick. Ireland is attorney general support of that
Martha Rubio came out fucking, calling on Joe Biden to support two thousand dollar checks, even though Joe Biden supported as knowledge acts long before,
Margaret Bio ever did. But it shows you
Marco Rubio is at least thinking here that somehow cooperation and and proposing to introduce dollar checks with Ian is a good thing for him. So
Does this change anything about guidance relationship with Republicans.
on the margins, maybe
even more interesting, perhaps than bacchanals comments about purging tromp is the reports about garland.
If what kind of calculation is he has two may improve the parties brain.
to have success in twenty two that could now,
acetate some cooperation, I think we should have
very low expectations for this we should just be very. We should be knife right, like ultimately, Republicans republican support of incentives that push them towards obstruction are going to continue
I had a thought: if we always kept us out, there would be harder for Mcconnell to do his step back and let the world berwin stretching two thousand nine, because he would have
agency in it ass control the Senate
now that is not necessarily the case.
I think the key for Biden is this
tree is divided and deeply and dangerous ways.
He ran on a mantle of trying to heal those divisions. It is absolutely critical that he makes two points
In his inaugural on his journey and a sort of his general print poachers, wine healing the
did you hear. The divisions in the country is not less,
to healing the divisions within Washington right like that,
the end. I think he can achieve that simply not by being a divisive asshole on a daily basis.
Just by being waking up in being Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, he is going to help he'll someday
genes country because he will not be exacerbating the much trumpeted this
in part, is he has to make it clear that his pipe
just to attempt bi partisanship.
but he cannot control whether Republicans agree to that.
so he has to get caught trying and if we always agree the things great, but if they
refuse. That is not a failure on violence. Part.
That is our future republicans to two eggs to reach.
To an outstretched hand and make it clear that the priorities that he is trying to pass legislatively that the action he's trying to take on behalf of the country is action and is supported by Americans of both parties and, if republicans want to work with him, that's great. His door is always open. If they don't he's, not gonna, let their obstructions
him from working his ass off to deliver for the american people, because that's most important and deliver for every American of every party right like there is there is
You like, if there is a tone and a way to talk about this, that shows that you don't want to further divide the
country, but that also you're, not gonna. Let the division stop you from acting, and that is the sweet spot where he
to be, I think, that's where we already, I was gonna say, were basically pulling a Rubio right now, which is suggesting by do some he's already thought he doing here.
No, but I think there's a water misunderstand me because they think sometimes by left here,
devices will get into you know fantasy.
Is about like working with Mitch, Mcconnell and sitting down with them. People think, oh he's. So now you think he's going to work with Mitch Mcconnell, and I think we both think that the likelihood of Republicans cooperating with Biden is low
Part of this is how you press
yourself in your agenda to the country to most photos worth paying attention to politics as much as all the rest of us are,
and making sure that everyone knows you're trying to act on behalf of the whole country and not just a party is an important message to deliver. Even if,
You use your majority in the Senate and the house. Just fuckin steam
Republicans if they stand in the way, which he also needs to do
and so it is. It's like a nuance thing, but I think I think I got it things like already is already there, but a lot of people think he is in a more naive place. Then I think he really is.
What is interesting about his comments is his
post election comments have been.
much more real
stick about Republicans and in line with sort of the message you laid out than some of us before the election comments about
There's an having, obviously having the
our party, including Mitch, Mcconnell, deny that legitimacy for election result refused even refer to you as President elect for more than a month from
we could have, you had any
notions. You could be disabuse of them that I also
I believe, like are
view that we're talking about here about how to talk about bi partisanship is based on
lessons we learned in two thousand and nine and two thousand and ten.
And Biden was therefore all those
because here's where the rubber,
the road on this Obama
how bout rhetoric down where he talked about sort of bringing the country together more so than fixing year that the divisions in Washington, though he did talk about the division,
Washington, quite a ban, but an bi partisanship. We were wrong, we like, but his
actions. Also, you know a lot of the
negotiations. We had were slow down because we were waiting for some by partisan support that never came back.
Bokkis. How long did make the Democrat MAC sooner from Montana, MAX Bacchus weight on the affordable
correct legislation for some Republican on the Senate Finance Committee to join and support the legislation when they were never going to support it?
How long do we delay the affordable care, because we re for Fuckin MAX boxes to wafer Republican, like Joe Biden
Shouldn't do that again, didn't you shouldn't be waiting for Republicans to come round right. He's gonna proposed a package. This is going to happen. You know in the coming weeks he's going.
propose a covert relief package. He.
And to hopefully get bipartisan support. Fine,
he can say you know I want this to be by Parson great. If he doesn't get, it doesn't seem like he's gonna get it soon, don't wait around fuck,
past the bill with democratic votes at.
I have a high degree of confidence that that is the approach
It's gonna take this and what he said based on the people meter towards Working Fernando reading the rooms with us and
the less in about a sad most of the right things and backs Balkis.
It is wait longer than we would have waited on our own for sure Brighton.
sort of how to swerve. Out of your way to make it clear that bi partisanship is a two way street
and you can only walk half way and then
up the Republicans to calm the rest of the way and if they don't,
that is on them and then is coming upon us to hold them accountable for that and not let the media just say
Obama, leadership thing or without giving a cannibal island fell by couldn't bring this addition is over to assign you get a push that I get like the key. Is this we're all of us? Everyone listening on this by cast to push back on that notion because they want to voice by on his return.
Ok, when we come back, we'll have Dan's conversation with Stanford researcher Renee Directive,
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To get it right. Renee Direct is the technical research manager at Stanford Internet Observatory in an expert on the spread of misinformation or mind Renee Walkin Apposite America. Thanks for having me
very interesting to talk to you about for a while now, particularly after what happened last week, you're someone who has studied
the spread of this information, but who is very familiar with this happening in the dark quarters the internet in this post,
much appeared in the run up to the insurrection, the capital. What did you see on wine that you think was related to what happened last Wednesday
yeah. So, first just a start. It's not it wasn't in the dark. Corners of the internet. Re was actually right out there in the open. So we should talk about that. I think
for that. The question of when did it start it's hard to pick a point, but I would say that, throughout the campaign there was a coordinated effort to deal a gentleman is the result of the election preemptively, so the president and his supporters.
Began laying the groundwork to claim that the elections had been stolen before election day happened. So far,
months you had influencers, you had the president's preferred sort of media sycophants you had. The
they're, saying in appointing to any random incident of a ballot being found somewhere, saying, look, there's massive voter fraud happening a tie
isolated, disparate incidents into a narrative of overarching fraud, and then you had certain communities turn those
it is an conspiracies by
not only was there fraud, but it was deeply coordinated fraud coming from the deep state coming from the Democrats, and so this progression of
student to narrative to conspiracy was what people who occupy particular
highly homogenous echo chambers, that's all that they were seeing right so
when you are a member of one of these echo chambers, the media, that you trust is saying something Lee into the institutional authorities that you trust her saying something that president that you trust is saying something. There's a
petition to it and so over this
it? A month's people came to believe in this idea that the elections had been stolen, where things began to go.
really haywire, though, with regard to the events of January. Six specifically was that for some of these groups
there was then a call to respond to that perceived fast,
not only in the form of a margin of protest, but in the form of retribution right. If you sincerely deeply believe that the election has been stolen from you that your vote has been invalidated, there is a lot of attempts to kind of gin up responses
from people who were inclined to respond in the in the manner that we saw so there's the mainstream trump supporters, but then there are also these highly conspiratorial and kind of avowed.
And white supremacist groups that were also at the vanguard of of literally breaching the building at that point
lot of questions about that? When you say it's coordinated use, do you think that there are
There was actual coronation, or was people following the lead of the president, like how does that had it at all? If you will get on this sea off the same song sheet
so consistently. Well, that's just that's a functional,
What is the media that your consuming right, so the media and then we'll Greenaway Willoughby
time we're for some reason there still this idea that there is media and broadcast media and that there is what's on
sorry, that their social media and broadcast media and then that there is an online and offline reality, and that's not true, so
Media social media is a channel within media and it's not only
people are not only getting their cue from social media there seeing broadcasters that they appreciate Tucker Karlsson had on a guess talking about how there is a collar revolution happening a month before the election right. So they
see this on their nightly news, then they talk about it in their social
It is a lot of reinforcement that happens there. News,
and away on are actively promoted by the president there just repeating what Trump supporters want to hear that point, and so
entire media and social environment that their participating in is safe,
the same thing. So it's not a you know back smokey
smokey room backroom coordinated and had a thing assisted, you're occupy,
space per year in the same community, and so
There are different, we call them. Factions may be different types of trump supporters are different types of at it actually is not unique to transport issues
different types of communities that our existing online and their networks between them member
who are interested both in acumen,
and in Malta, for example, those are actually two distinct
it is, but there's some overlap between them, because there are some people who are members of both, and so information is being carried by people.
between those different communities. So this is
a you know. Their head of the proud boys is in Facebook group with Grandma kind of dynamic. That's that's not what I'm saying it's at the end.
Mason that their receiving is is is very much the same kind of information
in America, in his
we ve, had people believe conspiracy theories lobby for the internet. Right wing militias were a part of the political extreme in this country before the internet, almost eighty bobbing before the internet. Why
has the other social media, Facebook, Twitter, etc. The internet more broadly
change those dynamics, I'm presuming it is made it worse by maybe correct me. If I'm wrong,
What are some Anderson?
sitting dynamics. You were focusing on the negatives, but one of one this this is the challenge of em
when somebody's hands as a weapon in another person's Hants right there. There so when you talk about Social and
here the idea that we would bring people together it either we would help people find,
ball with common interests, independent of geography, for example. Right so you have, then you ve created an infrastructure for connection where,
somebody who has particular opinion can find other people who have that particular opinion. Whether that's about knitting or conspiracy theories, that infrastructure is the same, and so the gas there have been conspiracies misinformation, disinformation, propaganda in all these things are in a sense.
His old phenomenon, what is different today, I would say, is be
ability to make those connections right and then the second thing that I think is really fundamentally different is the affords is that social media has given anybody, and so it used to be that if you wanted to get a message out created slogan reach massive numbers of people. You had to do very painstaking work of kind of bread,
mass movement. Over a of years, sometimes, whereas what happens on social media is, there is a variety of Fordyce right. By clicking the share button, you yourself can personally participate an amplifying and spreading a message. There is a ability to coordinate so groups of people
all in these online environment- can facilitate that veracity by saying, ok, everybody on this day at this time, we're all going to treat the same thing right to try to dominate sure voice in a particular conversation. So ordinary people have the impact to shape
conversation today in a way that was not true. Previously, I may have the ability to find others who are like them to participate in this kind of factional activism process,
Rene. We read a lot of reports about how the algorithms strictly Youtube and Facebook push me.
we'll towards more extreme content. The there is a report that aid
that facebooks own research showed that a high percentage of its users. That joint
extremist groups did servitors Facebook recommended those groups of them homeowners and how that process work and what role it may have played in the events of generous six of the capital Jaso the again. This goes back to the to the building and bridging of those communities. So I'll use a specific example from my own work. I got into this field of research actually by studying the anti Maxine Movement in how they were coordinating with other groups in using online infrastructure. To do it, and again, that's just you know your ear entitled to be an anti vaccine, activism of freedom of expression question you know, but what the platforms were doing. That was interesting as as these groups were starting and can a capital g group sense of the word. Let's use Facebook as a particular example, the recommendation engine when faced with began to prioritize groups and wanting more people on the platform to engage with groups, as was a coordinated decision. This is if they are a business decision,
aid by Facebook to try to encourage people to join groups when it began to do was had this recommendation engine that suggested that people join specific groups, and that was a very personalized set of suggestions based on the things
that not only you had engaged with previously by people who were like you, you had engaged with previously, so that's called collaborative filtering and what it says is if
I have an interest and someone who is statistically very similar to me has my
interest. I might be interested in other things that they're interested in so using the example of the Anti boxers what the recommendation engine was showing them was pizza, gate groups and then
non groups and that's because if you have a particular conspiratorial line, man are you believe the government is covering up one fact you actually,
be receptive to this other community, and so what we started to see was q and on in particular,
becoming a kind of Omni conspiracy, because it was being recommended to so many other different types of people that had so many different types of conspiratorial sub beliefs. If you well so this is
you start to see if you're interested in flatterers
content. You might lay acumen on if you're interested in anti vaccine contact you might like you and on if you're interested in it,
government content you might like he went on, and so this is the way in which just those correlations that p recommendation engine is king off of their not wrong, and so these groups began to grow in response to these proactive suggestions. So Facebook began to recognise that this was a problem and used
to see what Facebook recognised apparently internally per that document, or talking about in sixty four percent of the p
who were joining extreme groups were finding them by way of the recommendation engines, so they knew that in twenty sixteen and twenty nineteen they began to take a kind of distinctive public policy
Steps to say we're gonna remove certain kinds of content. Certain kinds of groups from their recommendation engine to try to
reduce the extent of that problem happening. The problem is that by this,
while in others those connections have been formed and just because the platform is is now trying to reduce the supply of the content. I doesn't reducing the demand for the content from the people who are already members of those commute.
These, and instead they see that reduction in supply as an act of censorship.
So I'm glad you rather have you rode a article two
in the Atlantic rational action. I would recommend everyone also found it fascinating, but quite disturbing
did you talk, as you mentioned here,
the two sided problem too.
disinformation, conspiracy theories etc? Is supply and demand.
I want to ask you in a minute about policy
responses to supply problem? But what do we do about the dead man problem? This
like you say there, may
People are joining as groups because there'll be recommended to them, but the recommendation is correct.
Like this, and they actually want to do. And so it like why
could possibly be done to deal with people's desire for these things, or is the answer actually reducing supply
right people have desire for certain things that we do not allow say their weekly prohibited to reduce demand, at least on ad on mass scale. There's some question
about in over what time HORIZON Minos certain platform interventions are effective. You know this was is also not the first time we have this conversation in twenty fifteen. There were some questions about what you do about ISIS presence on social media right. The Obama administration dealt with that just you know. How do we think about what to take down what to leave up or where certain types of vine of, if you ve already created the demand for the content through the repetition and the building of these communities, and then all of a sudden, you remove that access for EU dismantle the community's by a kind of either kicking the users offer disbanding the group that that doesn't just saw?
the problem. What I think is important to keep in mind here, though, is that that's because the demand is not a function of social media. Social media is maybe there. You know that in this case we can call it maybe like a pusher almost, but there are kind of deep, seated, very real,
concerns that people have is a loss of trust in media, there's a loss of trust in institutions. There's a other kind of educational
apps related to science and media literacy. At this point in the car the world that we live in today, there is just
so much underlying distrust and anger and distrust between I've, been people on their fellow citizens. At this,
when also- and these are not things that you fix through social media moderation, you know paradigm. These are things that require deep interventions, and I think it's also important to note that, while the content is carry
on social media, and this is where the media,
media if you well broadcast media mass media have a role to play the articles that they right the way that they frame things. The transparency with which they issue corrections is important and then there's also institutional communications. Don't forget that some of the people who have been pushing this idea that the election was stolen or you no kind of trying to think of a way to put it the TED Cruises and Josh Holly's with that. While we really do need to ask this question, this idea that the kind of disingenuous, while I'm just asking questions model of of giving credence to conspiracy, rather than telling the truth to these people and then saying no, there is no vast evidence of election fraud and you may be concerned about it, but it has not
happened. It did not happen. Instead, you have the work and you know I serve my constituents and so I'm going to air their grievances on the floor of the Senate problem. Is it, but that's a kind of tacit acknowledgement or endorsement or in framing of those concerns, are somehow legitimate and that's just not what the evidence and the facts have borne out. So you do have so many different.
Said to the problem of the house who people get their information from how reliable it is, the extent to which they trusted and then be the willingness to believe that all be is evil things have happened is not a function of something someone saw once it's,
gradual built up over time as associated companies make
decisions about what kind
do not. Allow will consent to penalize were contented to de emphasise within the algorithm
Some people are leaving the platform and
We only behind this arch conversation about since Twitter and Facebook ban tromp everyone's gonna parlour, and
now that's a much smaller media think us all reporters nine million people who have downloaded parlor compared to the billions who are on Facebook. What is that
impact of people moving
off of the larger at scale platforms to the smaller, more socially, ideologically homogenous platforms like parlor. Yes, it is.
He's, been message boards and can
Haiti is that are ideologically homogenous sprite any any given interest group pick one Google, it you'll find a message board for it,
so that's not a design, inherently disturbing or bad or bad phenomenon. What's interesting about first, while this again
This is indicative of demand right people who believe that the mainstream platforms are censoring them, even if there's no evidence to back that claim as a lot of the early in flux to parlour
in twenty nineteen happened when Twitter began to label the president's tweets not to take him down, not prevent them from being amplified, even just put just depending of fact, check label was interpreted by prominent conservative leaders again. What's, let's just pointed tat crews here as censorship. Follow me on parlor, where I can speak freely. So there was this this kind of equivocation as the saying that a contextual asean
label, all of a sudden was being interpreted as evidence of censorship, so be demand. You know was was was perpetuated in some part by this. This grievance others claim that even a label was was
affront to free speech, and- and so that was where the out some of the early demand for parlor kind of came out of that, then
was increased by in the days following the election. There came to be afraid, stop the steel and you may have heard people's chanting it. On January, six
and so this phrase stop. The steel referred to the idea that the election had been stolen and there were some groups that popped up on Facebook and one of them was started by women for tromp, which is not an extremist organization, but women for Trump and it a mass
Several hundred thousand people in a span of about thirty six hours make some somewhere upwards of three hundred and some one thousand people join this Facebook group because they were convinced that the election had been stolen. They were looking took to form a community around. This
but some percentage of the people who were in that group were using inflammable
and violent rhetoric already, even though just the morning after the election and so Facebook made the decision to take down the group, so that
turn became a again. This little folks had been hearing from
a very long time at social media platforms are biased against them into. This was seen as yet one more piece in that evidentiary chain that the problem is not the violent speech of that sub community, but that, rather it was Facebook trying to silence the voices alleging that that the election had been stolen, and so those people move to parlor where they could continue to talk about the election being stolen over on parlor. But this is what I was referring to climb the beginning of our conversation. The problem is not that homogenous groups of people form communities online. The challenge is that parlor does not provide any of the contextual innovation for any of the claims or fact checks or anything like that, and instead believes that
people can go and I and inform themselves, and now is the belief on social platforms for years and years and years that, yes, somebody might see some fake news, but they could then go and google it in fact jacket for themselves and that just was not what was actually happening and so belief in conspiracy theories and sharing of
spiritual content absent any of those facts
Balls or you know, attempts to address what people were seeing. People were not yet.
Thoughtfully, looking at a headline reading the article going to Google evaluating the source looking for, I know for counterfactual evidence to dispute wild claim to decide whether or not to believe it. Instead it
as I am seeing this thing that someone I like has shared and therefore I am inclined to believe it, I'm already primed to but
That is where you get to the idea of echo chambers where there is no opposing voice. There is no market place of ideas,
guessing the wild claims in an article in saying hey? Maybe this isn't true? It's just a very
Unity where no.
outside of counter evidence is going to make its way into the conversation,
for at least the last six or seven years of my wife, every almost universal. Every time I have watched a focus group of undecided voters,
you hear, someone repeat some completely obvious false thing: the
the election, was stolen. Barack Obama was born in Kenya.
you know? Joe Biden has dementia things they just a bit
It's just a brief visit to
a newspaper or CNN, or whatever would tell you, is not true
you ask people where they have they that information in it
the answer is almost always facebook right. I recognise the Facebook is in some ways it just a proxy for the internet.
Large for a lot of people. It is, but
and then people like me, YO.
Mark Zuckerberg. Shell Sandberg do better right. Any
do. You have a view of white these social.
the platforms could do to corner called you better too.
Damn the spread of misinformation and disinformation online. Yes, at two things- one, I think curator really mean
it's right. That is, I think, the that is where this conversation is going to go. Look at the scene and when- and there is, I think, a misguided belief among people who believe that the algorithms are viewpoint based that have you point best buy
when they say like. While I didn't see everything that my friend shared or my friends, don't see all my posts, Ergo, the algorithms biased against me
No, I think people have to understand how algorithmic eurasian works and then the platforms responsible for it have to be both more transparent. How it's happening
But also there has to be a lot more attention paid to what is proactively pushed to people, because that is where it's not. You know, with the bee formation of things I q and on the cross, pollination and other communities, people weren't looking for that continent
being sent to them in a very different thing, so I think sorting out our understanding of how to carry ethically and responsibly so that good information rises to the top is is important and then what
the definition of good is even his eyes is debatable. At this point I think the other
and, though is the platform moderation is, is also quite opaque and
it has. Many people feel that it's quite subjectively applied, and I dont think that that's wrong, and so Facebook has the ability to
you. Do things like temporarily throttling content that is going viral to give a fact, Checker Contextualisation one time to have
what we ve seen instead as oftentimes evoldo viral, and then it will come down and that perpetuates
idea of censorship
other than allowing it to stay with inappropriate conceptualisation and a kind of a framework around it that that puts you know that helps people
make that decision about whether or not to trust us is a reliable information right there on the platform,
where they are seeing it at the same time that they are seeing it. That's where I think we need to be
going with moderation not take down after
million people have seen something because there's a public outcry against it. That looks very active, and I think that that Sir turns whatever the cost
wasn't as some kind of forbidden knowledge and in some ways makes it more appealing.
and this may well ask us and I'll. Let you get back to your day.
Given what you just said there do. You think it was then put an error by the,
the social media companies to ban Trump
in the sense that it was full the aid more of the idea of censorship and less trust in
the platforms or was it a necessary step, given that some of the dangerous, I think there is a very significant.
trade off in that moment, based on the events of the six, so I watched the live stream as I was happening, and one of the things that I recall happening was that when the president made his speech,
There are people in the crowd. Clearly, at the doors I was watching, a live stream that someone was was sending from the doors, keep some,
came over where the video at Trump wants us to go home trump wants us to go home, you know, and there is this. Some percentage of the people were like
Kay another. The commander in chief has given us our order. It's time for us to disperse, and then there are
smaller much smaller community? That said well, I'm not here for trompe. No I'm here for and then whatever the dead. Sir, more extreme elements who decided they are going to continue to staying and keep China in obeying on the doors and get the building. But there was. This agency should have watched it play out this people were they felt that they were taking marching order.
Yours and so the potential for additional incitement in that moment at that time was what ultimately made that determination and
so D. You know the exact wording put out a thread about the permanent ban.
Last night. Where are they?
How did how they felt that it? It was a very unprecedented thing to do. At the same time, I feel like the decision in that moment at that time, and it remains to be seen a facebook lino allows the president back on after after President Biden inaugurated Present alike, but that's what I
either the question becomes. Should the ban be permanent, any immediate term? I think it was absolutely right call largely because of the incitement and ongoing violence.
Rene. Thank you so much. We can talk about this with you for literally days.
the super, fascinating, quite alarming in a lot of ways, and thank you for being with us about to America,
based on aid for joining us today, and everyone have a good weekend and again, we will have the deposit on Tuesday will be doing
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Transcript generated on 2021-01-15.