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“Bolton’s bombshell.”

2020-01-27

John Bolton’s explosive new book upends Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, Adam Schiff joins to talk about what happens next, and Bernie Sanders extends his lead in Iowa as other candidates raise electability questions. Then Ezra Klein talks to Dan about his new book, “Why We’re Polarized.”

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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For sending you once again that zip recruiter dotcom such cricket. Wolden Applauds in America. I'm John Favour on drama that Tommy retort. We have an insane amount of news to cover today. Adam shift is going to join at a few to talk about John Boltons Impeachment bombshell and where the trial goes from here, one week away from the caucasus- and there are more pole showing the islands are feeling the burn. And later you'll, hear an interview Dan with VOX Ezra as recline about his new book. Why wear polarized
before we get into all that the latest episode of the wilderness is out. This is one of my favorites. I sit down with Obama Trump voters outside of walkie, who backed democratic candidates in twenty eighteen and we talk to people like shared Brown, Tammy Baldwin Ill on Omar and other strategies and organisers about her Democrats can win back the MID West and twenty twenty. Their advice is varies art and worth listening to that you really gotta who's who of people. I actually want to listen to on this yet your people who know how to win in the MID West also have just theoretical the woman in Pennsylvania who started the group on our own. Almost made me cry my car. I love into all that I can. I just think I don't either fifty minutes as soon as he chose by little. Much but look at length on earth now. You know who did it literally and who to take seriously subscribe at the wilderness. Podcast dot com go subscribe, love it. I was We can show great love it or leave it check it out, people I was city are pumped that you're coming to their town. I was city big
we're leaving come out? We had was very fun of this week. I'm very sad to your Iowa obvious makes any gas coming out for that show here you're in Iowa, check it out. You could be a guest, you can t get effective plucked from the crowd start with the biggest development, since the impeachment trial began here, the lead in the New York Times that broke Sunday night. President I told his national security adviser in August, but he wanted to continue freezing three hundred and ninety one million dollars in security assistance to Ukraine until officials. They are help with investigations into Democrats, including the bidens, according to an unpublished manuscript by the former advisor John. Are Bolton according to the times in boltons lawyers, a draft of the book was sent to the White House and December thirtieth, which means that some collect tromp administration officials have known what's in there for almost a month and now for a quick reaction to this news, we're gonna go to represent,
Adam ship blood. Today we have the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee in the lead house, impeachment manager himself. Adam shift. Welcome back to the pod congressmen. Thank you re to be with. You so you know I'm just looking at all this news coming in John soon just said on the Bolton revelations, I dont think it changes the facts. I dont personally see it as a game changer. What's yours, To do that. My reaction is the President says the John Bolton is lying. John boldness says they had direct conversation. Evidently, with the president, in which the present said withholding all this military aid that Ukraine to coerce. Sir, these events negations, are or something along those lines. Let's put John jawbone under oath and find out the truth now, what Bolton said evidently is corroborated every single other witness we have already heard from so I would hope that
General Food and all the other senators would want to hear these witnesses unless they prepared to say We think the present is lying and we think there's no need for decided. The senators should want to hear this evidence, so it's clear that Bolton refused to testify to the house based on a lie, since he had already plan to reveal everything in his book. Does that constitute in terms of Congress in your mind, or is there anything else you can do as Intel chairman to pressure him to testify. If the Senate refuses to vote for witnesses? Well, look I had two senators should wanna hear about testimony, they should want to have him under oath and be able to evaluate its credibility. I should have appointed bringing him before the house when the tires of fact should from him directly, so I would urge the Senate
to move straight alive testimony, I dont think that if necessary, to do a deposition. I think America people want to hear from Mr Barton as well, so I would urge that this. Potent witness and others, but the particular John boldness. I'll come forward and testify before the Senate. Can you supply? a galley of the book. You know, I do want to get it to specific documents. But frankly, I do not think that the most important records are probably John bones notes of those notes. I would imagine taking contemporaneously and so what John Bolton said after had discussions with the president, I think the centre should demand to see as so. Yes, those could be subpoenaed. Obviously any document could be subpoena, but the most important, maybe the notes that he took at the time of these events. One particular detail. They caught my eye and the time story buttons book or What do we say the trump didn't want?
with the aid until Ukraine quote turned over all materials they had about the investigation that related to stir Biden and supporters of MRS Clinton in Ukraine. That's him slightly different than the quid pro quo that other witnesses testified about, which was a many of the Biden Bereavement investigation. What did you make that? Well, yet This is a good reason why we should bring John both man and find out exactly, but that conversation at the end of the day, though the presence object is the same and that is to use this- taxpayers, money, useless leverage, show the United States I had the or he had his commander in chief over Ukraine by withholding money, then to fight a war with Russia to get something that would help essentially cheat the next election get foreign help in the next election, and that could obviously, in the form of what is purported than this manuscripts?
information about the vitamins or Hillary Clinton. That would discredit the the mother conclusion. It could be specific information about binds firing of the former corrupt prosecutor general or isn't involvement in that, and so I think it is of a like character to what we ve already a testimony about. But if you can add additional incites. Why would the Senate not want to hear from him it? It seems like. He may in this book, also implicate attorney General Bill BAR and secretaries, eight MIKE Palm PEO? Do you believe, need to hear from bar and bumpo as well. Well, look! I think that Certainly all of these witnesses have insights. To the full scope of the present misconduct and people around the president, so they would all provide useful testimony, but look here
focusing, I think, on the most important that go to the president's misconduct, the case where the president needs to be wrong, from office, but I do think the american people are entitled to the truth, the full truth and nothing but the truth about the length and breadth of this perhaps game who was involved? Who was in the no you know in turn, it attorney general Ernie general. The Justice Department had a role in trying to prevent the whistle blower complaint from getting to Congress, and we now know that The bill bar was made aware by John Bolton. If this report is accurate that was mentioned on that call. That is the subject of this whistle blower complaint. So by holding their complaint from Congress I was also in effect protecting himself and you could see when that call record became public. That bar felt it necessary to immediately issue a statement saying they never discussed it with me. I took no step
I want nothing to do with this, and that only underscores, I think, a just why billboards just apartment and why there whistleblower complaint never to be seen we'll Feldman, but one of the Democrats. Witnesses of the judiciary hearing recently said that their if there are no witnesses and documents he believed this impeachment trial would be illegitimate. Do you agree with that? I agree. It won't be a fair trial. And you know you can't have a fair trial where you deprive the house or the present from calling relevant witnesses won't be for a trial, and you know if there are no witnesses and no documents there's no. Fair trial, there's no vindication of the president, and there's no exoneration of the president, and I think that the american people deserve a fair trial,
So I think that if you want to give content to that also being an impartial jure, you should want to hear the photo What are you hoping to be asked during the sixteen our question period? That will happen this week? Well, you know, I think, I certainly like her a chance to read, but some of the represent. Patients and representations and the president's argument- that of his lawyers on the second floor above but I think one of them has already been powerfully rebut, and that is one of these. Lawyers was on the floor, saying, there's no direct evidence. The present told em I to withhold the aid for these investigations, personal that wasn't true to begin with, because Mc Mulvaney said that he discusses
the president and the admitted there was a quid pro quo over the aid and the investigations. Gordon silence said he spoke to the president and the President while saying there was no quid pro quo, then went on to describe a quid pro quo in which the President of Ukraine had to go to microphone and announce its investigations bought. It would be the third direct witness He would also corroborate all the circumstantial evidence the two plus two equals for, so many other witnesses testified in the absence of any other credible explanation for the withholding of the aid and not that present was already tying the White House meeting to getting these investigations. You could which no other sensible conclusion Bolton to say further incremental. But it's an already overwhelming case, but we should be brought forward and if the president and his lawyers are trying to contested then we should not turn away. A witness has already said the willing to cooperate, but
are questions about what the presence lawyers are arguing. Those arguments carry water. I would certainly like a chance to respond to that. So substance of the case aside, you know. As a former speechwriter, I have been in awe of the closing statements. You d last week, all of which have have gone viral. What what was your process? There were those off the cuff. Did you write them ahead of time? It had a whole bunch of people. Ask me this. Well, I You know I've been doing really what I did the testimony of the witnesses in the house, which is, I would listener testimony during the court the day and I were chopped down notes about things that were particularly striking to me, and so I had notes, but there was certainly an impromptu quality to them. For example, when we play that clip of colonel than men talk about Father, which it I watched.
The centre is watching that clip and I saw them with tears in her eyes as he was describing, how he told his father don't worry dad. I hear right matters and I thought to myself that's a point worth returning who, in my closing and so that's been my process, its a bit risky in a trial, instead. I think people appreciate it when you speak from the heart and and so I'd I'd try to look for it. During the day that are worth being emphasised at the end of the day. I say you know, I've watched you a lot over the course of this impeachment and in your final statement, I dont know that I've ever seen you so passionate and an emotional. Was that anger? Was it frustration? What what were you thinking there? Oh you know, I don't know that
so much a conscious decision. I also feel very strongly about what happened in the country really anguished about what restrictions do into the country. And I am deeply worried about our future- and I think that comes out, and We are when you're at this, for hours and hours and You know the stakes, then things tend to regulate. With a new more deeply, and I think that's what you're saying congressmen Schiff. Thank you. So much everything- a good luck with the trial this week and that will talk to against him. Thank you very much. thanks to Adam Chauffeur for joining so guy you heard. You heard the congressmen they're gonna better go get this. I get this guy testifying so
for we talk about this New York Times during Bolton affects the trial. Let's talk about the story itself for second, because there are quite a few gems in here related not only to trumpet the rest of his goons. What what did you guys? goddamn it was your first reaction when you read the story of my first reaction, was what an asshole you know that, though the revolution will be monetize, like John Bolton thinks we deserve the truth if and only if he gets paid for it in the form of a book or a corporate speech in its just outrageous. But I need has been your time described it as dozens of pages describing the Ukraine extra. And plot every one that we thought would be in on the fix. My palm pale MIC Mulvaney Their shady idiots they're, all in on the thing how many smoking guns do we need before we and peaches. As Gordon someone said, everyone was in the loop, I do think it was funny that, like twenty paragraphs down in the story, the near them
as important, told people he wants to testify now, so he's not accused of holding back to boost his books, a fearful leverage think well, you know, he's refuse congressional subpoenas, it's pretty bad. Following its it, as this is not defensible to say that I can't say these things to Congress, but I can say these things in a book because it raises a sort of philosophical question: is what will happen if you, at the book out loud in Congress or not in Congress radio anywhere. So here you know he's version. You know like, I feel, like I've said, there's a million times, but I think jumbled and cares about two things: preemptive orange rumbled, and so he doesn't is not trying to protect tromp he's trying to hurt Trump he's too. Do what's best for himself, and it seems like he hears about another kind of regime change right now, Yeah I mean it's just his route,
He is nothing if not consistent yeah now he definitely loves of good pre emptive strike at Russia is like. We have an hour and a half long tape of of Trump saying take out the ambassador. We, the National Security Visor detailing the entire extortion racket over dozens of paid. What else too, we need to maintain this is this? Is Nixon tapes ask its ass? It's it's! It's also. Just you know we'll get to the politics, but what is show us well it's yet another in this, which is that as well. It's yet more confirmation of what we already know. It's another camera angle. You know we already have it's it's as if we're watching this car crash, and we have, we have a fuckin recording from inside the car. We footage from this direction. We have footage from that direction, and now we have, yet another angle on this fucking through on this on this wreck and the the reason I think it's made such a big deal. It's not that it's really
hold us something we didn't already know. It's that its harder and harder for five Senate Republicans to say, with a straight face that we don't to hear from John Bolton and a few other nuggets from the story. Bolton says that he is pale and defence Secretary Mark Esper basically asked the president to release the aid a dozen times a dozen times. They asked him to release the aid. From said he Wouldn't do it until Ukraine turned over all materials they had about Russia, investigation that related to Joe Biden in Hillary Clinton, which is your me, ask shovel this is just sort of one. The way was phrase in the times it is very odd like why The Russia investigation have to do with Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton like it could very well be possible to Donald Trump has all of his fuckin conspiracy theories mix
Yeah, I'm gonna go auctions, razor and just say the doll Trump is very stupid and probably garbled his words, but yes, he could also have in his head a whole bunch of other conspiracy theories that have been tabled yet naval, the unruly new package- yeah, oh, you, think, look I look. I'm happy for dont want to be stupid only that you need to be done in this case. He just needs to be imprecise and not really care what he's getting? He just really wants whether in some cases he was- I wanted to announce investigation with another case cases saying just give me anything. That's documented that I in use against Joe Biden? You knew what I was thinking about when I saw that right, it's you know come here was a liar and a fraud in an hour You know, as as Tommy likes to two point out has been referred to as a heat seeking missile for transaction, but what you see in this. We are eligible em right now, but the, but you see this sort of like all these people.
Whatever they're saying publicly, however they're covering for Trump clearly behind the scenes. They understand that this is wrong and you're going to try to get him to do it over at the police. Stop. If we stop this and then- and then you know Trump seem sober seems like maybe they've gotten their fucking hands around and then he just go, takes a fucking, a whip, it off a regionally Ani and our back to where they started like reducing Ani Huffing Rudy was half a year explanation. For this whole, it is ready, Giuliani, regionally, Ani was a drug for tromp because it was, it was a FED. His narcissistic obsession with something that could help him, so they could vindicate his conspiracy theories about twenty. Sixteen and Tipp the scales in twenty two So there is nothing. It is something that should set in his closing. Why wouldn't why on earth would you listened to Giuliani over Christopher RE. Why would wasn't a router Giuliani. After all, over all these career National Security Council people telling you You're doing is wrong, unhelpful, dangerous setter, etc, etc. Illegal we'll just because he liked the fucking
he got off originally Audio America's merits holding hero. Well, so it seems like Bolton. Will also implicate a few other members of the trumpet Ministration Pomp Hale told Bolton that Marie of Honor, which did nothing wrong in that Rudy, was trying to get rid of her, probably to help his own clients seems no that's great, and says that he told Attorney General Bill BAR. That Giuliani was running a shadow foreign policy and there was a problem and now, of course, the Justice Department through a spokesperson is No, I don't know what I do know its argument, inevitable bar anything when you talk about their denials are always so specific in so thinly sliced. I just don't believe already says the upper it's just I mean I think, and you know it s shiftless like get forget about. Bolton and Watt Mulvaney. Let's get pump, Hale in there. Let's kit, let's get bar to testify, ass. For all Donnie Junior was at the left partners, dinner colleague. Everything that ever did you Hunter button
Let's talk about what happens next. The timing of this was exquisite because the The core argument that the President's defence team had been making to the Senate over them weekend is that the president didn't withhold the aid because he wanted investigation. And that no one who spoke directly the Trump has testified. Otherwise the Bolton story has completely destroyed that defence, so what happens now. How does this effect? The trial was very glad you just want to you know? Look we don't know where the as it is, recording I've seen that we know who leaves the information from the manual, whether it was from someone in the White House, someone from Bolton's camp, but they denied it. Someone from the publisher- if, if you are the person who put this out today, I want to applaud you for your political fucking acumen, just really crushed it on the timing, mail that my guess is
so they will happen. Is the buttons layer sent a manuscript to the annex c for Pre Clarence and they have their say they did not send it to any one else. Do you think Tommy Here's what you think about this matter! be there's someone still at the embassy, whose loyal to Bolton who decided that they were want to get it out to help on. That was my guess. I mean I don't know I don't know I mean you know that that sort of pre clearance process, our you were view a book for classification issues, arise at your privilege or what not disposed to be handled by technocrats, who we know those people no longer exist anymore, so probably just forded around to the entire executive. And whoever lately did not also live partners with a highlight. Are you I mean It's also like I don't know. I don't know who to trust in the situation of trust anybody, and it was pretty notable that the book cover popped up on Amazon. We got forty minutes later, reddened thing so the out of them, I mean you know, I have just said: we gotta get the resale right. They could be taken advantage of the opportunity there
Make money either way that don't enough to think they're here is here: oh John we know as I do. You think I don't I want to hear it is one measure that out their arrows, whose lives are native started the podcast Where a developmental, I don't want to see this word jot jumbled in american hero. It is just waiting welcome with resistance. I mean this does raise questions that this manuscript got to the White House under number thirtieth, so at least some combination of Trump Administration officials knew that this was coming out. New it when they forbid John Boltons Testify- and you know we don't know for sure There's a question whether the trumps defence team knew it when they just told the Senate. There has been no evidence that anyone talk directly to Donald Trump about a quid pro quo, their liars.
Would love to know if Mitch Mcconnell knew about the ass existence and be content of said book, because I, like MRS Entire game plan here is beat, has been to prevent this testimony from happening, and it wouldn't shock me for one second, if he was in on the fix as Old Fox NEWS, he was coordinating every day all the time with thirteen- and this isn't like this like a memoir about, like you, know what it's like to be on air force? One leadership that yeah right like that, the apple slices from the mass like this is the fuckin like this is a bombshell book like its goes up. The chain of command is literally rare of. Is this. If I did it raises, if that's the, if, if I did it and the room where it happened. Boltons name of his book have a very similar energy and I will just say tat. We can when my mama, I know, tough within an elevated allegation, is Albania, those good and sound and right so little?
the republican reaction to this development so far and where acquiring this as its still unfolding his there still trying to get on the same talking points so wrong Me has basically said I've said before I want witnesses. Now I really want witnesses I want. I want to hear from John Bolton Susan com not a statement saying, I think the strengthens the case for witnesses also notable that both of them have not just said to spoken for themselves, but they said we have now been talking to some other people rightly said. I think it's likely now we'll get some witnesses, but then SAM's dine at the daily bees, pitiless together of other republican response. So far from centres which has been he's not telling the truth he's not saying anything new. He may not be a first hand witnessed, which was jolly judge. What is it I dont know, is he a first hand: witness bono Josh, Can you read? Can you fuckin reed anyone? Is he the National Security Visor be that pressure? He talked to the pressing I'd states, which is what this report says. So I don't know obsolete in
won't change the outcome that from a couple rubicund centres, one change the outcome which is really telling on yourself, but he's aggrieved that the Republican National Committee is attacking him on that and of course, some of them are falling back to the house should have called him. The whole should have called them, which is too how Rachel I don't, but I will say that, because they have an all coalesced on a single excuse for this and their cancelling press, conferences left and right and Romney saying and consequently NPR they get on MP? Are ideas? Is Adam driver Shit, It shows that this is, you know, eyes How do people, yes women's broke like nothing matters nothing's going to change. I know I'm absolutely those people, maybe you're right. What would you think that we don't think you're right? You think we're off and I even hopeful and optimistic were fucking. Not I don't think there I mean. Look I built the polling is already been like. Seventy percent in favour of calling you witnesses inherent you. I do think this book makes it untenable for these Republicans and not here from John Bonham for firmer cows
he for Collins for Romney for Lamar Alexander, though he's retiring for Corey Gardener, who is still in the witness Protection program. I mean this. You have to think the pressure is building on them to have witnesses. What what possible excuse? Could you offer to voters in your state or in your district for not calling these people you, of course that is gonna come on a book of course, the biggest trumped offenders are go out and say what they ve been saying this morning and say fuck, it have already made up their minds, but like and look do I think that Mitt Romney ensues in college agenda in a show some great courage and vote to convict Donald Trump. I still think that highly unlikely, but political pressure were and also, if your Mitt, Romney and you're gonna vote no on John Bolton as a witness. Why put yourself out there and say, want witnesses have been saying in a long and now I think it's more likely we're gonna get it. What is it? Why do that? Why not just say to walk by reporters and say I'll talk to you later, which also you know: ok, you're, very sophisticated,
You are saying right out in a very sophisticated to predict that a very likely outcome is a certainty. Is now that's interesting or smart to die. I made you savvy, we all get it. They all know what the steel and it is. You know it is odd, Lastly, very likely that Donald Trump will not be convicted by the Senate, saying that thing that is very, very likely is a certainty, is just play in the fucking arts, but you know on the witnesses, were so we're so like the case for witnesses at a trial, is that it's a fucking trial no we're so beyond we're in outer space. Now the case for witnesses was, I clad the day he was impeached it it's the case were witnesses is trials were its in? fuckin bill of rights? You know it's like this is this is what we do. You have a trial, you call innocent, otherwise, just opening statements in there never was a trial. There they are Maggie Hebrew treated that up to your point about.
Not really being on the same page that many, the senators felt that they work blindsided by the existence of this Annual growth, I find delightful ass, some Blindsided, it's very much just. I am horrified to discover that there may be evidence that there was gambling in this casino. You can tell their already starting to try to move on to other excuses right. So there now they're, saying or even if there was a quid pro quo, even if he did condition. Assistance on investigations it also not true, because witnesses testified that someone delivered the extortion scheme to the Ukraine's told them about it, told him. There's gonna happen. So there is a Ukraine and, of course, when he got caught, he eventually really say that's what they're down to that now they're going back to course when he got caught. He eventually really fit. That's what they're down to that now they're going back to the MIC, mulvaney response at he just debuted a few months to early, which is this happens, all the time deal with it. I don't care
right? There is another thing they are really stuck because you know I've seen her on, like you know, national a few other places like what's the real story here was, you think they're telling themselves, and- and one of the arguments went something like obviously what trumpeted was terribly inappropriate. However, there is an election at the end of this year. The aid was released. This was discovered he has paid a political price. It is not worth were moving him over this yet, but but the reason they can't fucking go out there. Say this is because their terrified of by the women of his in eighteen, eighty eight is saying: Monica Lewinsky has never met Bill Clinton. All of this is made up it's a right wing,
it was built. When did nothing wrong, I ve been trying to get it from day one we know others like if Mitt Romney and Susan Colonialism, Rakowski Lamar Alexander, maybe others go ahead and vote for witness vote here from John Bolton. The tweets from Donald Trump envy cry from the conservative media echo chamber is going to be deaf. I mean it is the he's gonna beat fucking DEFCON wine are scared, saying or threatening all them. It's creates can be amazing to watch he threatened Adam Schiff yesterday, I feel threatened Matt Gates who, been their number one water carrier Cassim dared to vote against war with? run right only the most vindictive president in history and, like I love the projection from these guys, like Pat, simply only is calling the damn case. A plot to subvert the election is just always projecting always always rate applied to make MIKE Pence President's Republicans, maintain control of the way
like at least the whole overturning election thing is justified and it's just another story is not an argument is that it is not. Actually it's just stir. It just talking point to give them comfortable. The one other thing here is this. It now seems like you know, I think John Dune was saying: there's can be very witnesses Friday or Saturday of this week. Maybe I never and usually goes longer if they do say yes to witnesses that this point doesn't look like terms given the state of the union after after an acquittal usher doesn't so that's that's fun they want, I would say, like the one little. The one fear is that you know we Romney Collins, others that have gotten them so that they get themselves pretty far out there. They? Can these what three they can lose three yet and Lamar, and they just hold court got they get court gory gardener just sort of
he thinks he's gay, probably know this guy was a effect him they get. Lamar has just sort of african final like do it, you know, do it for us, a video and further team, like don't they could not get a look at what we shouldn't be mean we get This is Collins and Romney in all those people feel good about themselves that they voted for witnesses, and then they vote took the president and then they go back and say well, I was very young. And reasonable because I voted for an them that still were landing. But again are our task here is to give voters this information detractors hoddan a little bit longer to let him make sure doesn't get a full acquittal and full exoneration scream about it and you know really damning. The money from John Bolton on the way out the door into the trial That's not a really does our full exoneration for damage I'd like to see that sign that ETA, even some centre republicans are starting to come to grips with the fact there witnesses is John Corn in his back to floating. You get your witnesses were combine calling hunter. Recalling recalling Adam Schiff again
I've been calling out of ship is go. How real yeah please catch that car so believe it or not. The Bolton story is not the only piece of new evidence. It emerged over the weekend on Friday, ABC News released excerpts, a recording of Donald Trump talking to indicted Giuliani, Associates Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman at a twenty eighteen fundraiser, which proves that when Trump said he doesn't know them, he was lying let's play clip of that tape, which was apparently made by eager for women. The biggest problem there. I think what we need to start as we got to get rid of the ambassador. Is she still left over from the the administration where they arrested over you great yeah, she's, basically walk around telling everybody wake he's gonna get impeached. Just wait. I mean I don't remember. His name will be
get wherever harangue interrupt Ankara to take her out, said resonated states to a random goon. They just meant that he just met this is how hiring and firing happens at the listen to these clowns. Like laugh excessively hard to every one of his jokes is so painful aside, point no it's a good one. I just sailing trumps comments about and ass her or maybe not the worst part about that tape. It's like an hour and a half of him. She moving with these rich donors, including foreign nationals who are just presenting Trump with their policy wishlist that they are buying access. Two, and so that one guy was a canadian steel magnet. He wants a limit. Steel imports, the U S and he was to get rid of safety rules for truckers, because that's a safe job. Apparently he gave one point: seven: five million dollars to approach from superpower called America first action now that is illegal because he's a foreign national
but he routed the money through one of its subsidiary companies. In the U S, it was just like this is the most brazen corruption you can and there's one guy who's trying to get trump to hold the Singapore summit with Kim Jong on at a property he owns in Korea. I'm nothing is sacred in this meeting in by access it trump you can buy your way onto the policy agenda is disgusting and I will say in overtook him of this before the Pike ass, but like that that sir, worried, can Vogel wrote in the New York Times about all this paid a place, tough going on at this meeting and the Trump Hotel in general I mean this is stuff that voters will really care about. If Democrats tell this story right, the idea that tromp promised to drain the swamp and has failed to drain the swamp not only fail to be during this final, like built, an entire new swamp really does people off and it pisses the Obama Trump voters auspices. Our base is business people we ve seen this in our polling. We ve seen another point, so I do think you know. We ve talked about
peach, is not really breaking through to average from her kids in any way, but this kind of shit we're This up repulsive America is brought to by parachute whether you new year's resolution is rising with the sun every morning. Her learning to cardio parachutes, quality homosexuals make pushing your comfort zone much more comfortable, gentlemen, what about your new year's resolutions fast? your classic bathrobe, finding good uses. You sit on the floor, enchanted daily meditation. What it's weird to ask a question of myself in in this in the outcome, but also is that what you're resolution was that nobody was yoga. I believe it was to read Harry Potter. I would also say it is. It is the twenty third. Oh wait on the new year's resolution, or maybe maybe it's good? Maybe we should always talk about them anyway. The answer is yes: John. I, where I have my bath river M, wearing it right now, yet it some not appropriate John D
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visit, parachute, home, dotcom flush, crooked for free shipping, returns on parachutes, premium, quality, very comfortable homosexuals, that's parachute home dotcom, such crook, unbelievable, alright, so let's talk about twenty twenty, the Iowa caucus is a week from today and we have four new poles, three of which have Bernie Sanders in the lead in one. Without that has Biden in the lead, One was the New York Times in college. Paul were burning at twenty five percent cent at eighteen percent Biden that seventeen percent. Is it fifteen percent and no one else is in double digits, enclosures at eight percent. That Paul does any service If we take away from any of the numbers in this pole or any of the polling you ve seen over the weekend, things ass, you know, Bernie Bernie momentum is doesn't feel like noise anymore. It seems like now really evident across a wide number of poles.
The fact that there are still other outliers just tells you that nobody knows anything but Bernie goes into the Caucasus in a very strong position, having kind of weathered a heart attack come back stronger, having been through a number of just really strong debates, having actually not really drawn that much heat from his fellow candidates over the course, the last six months as one by one, whether it was PETE for awhile Biden for awhile Warren for awhile became the potential front, runner faced a bunch of heat and scrutiny and attacks and then kind of lower in the polls and Bernie. What sort of rocks through that hope here. So I got back from Iowa on Saturday. Was there to tape, define them, sort of my eye were many series on the eye Cox's that comes out Tuesday morning. So keep an eye on that. A few things wine. We did in exclusive pull for that episode, but change research and the result of that poor, we'll be in that
tomorrow said. That's my way of beating you into listening. You don't get any hands, you gotta, listen to pod, save America on the ground and I were to Morrow. You know, hence the biggest take away. I had one. How weird it was to be there with impeachment We were there Wednesday, Thursday Friday. There were almost no candidates on the ground summer stuck in DC, but also Peat and Biden were really there. When we were, there Inter Yang was really working hard. The guys doing a seventeen day, buster forecast oxidation Yang, keep an eye on you too, and something interesting. The thing is notable, though, is like no one knows what can happen, but people feel like the Bernie campaign is a mystery, and then I wouldn't spent some time with Bernie staffers and went to the air the event that they didn't. I was city and they feel like they have the biggest volunteer base. They feel like they're, doing really well in terms of their field numbers its notable day like the biggest targets in the state they had Posner. They had ever see that Michael more doing these big trips didn't see. Other candidates feeling the Void
were having their bosses at a town for impeachment the way they were like enclosures daughter was there. She did really great events, but we're talking about thirty people, not a hundred yahoo. Us Their include. I had a professional curling coach will who was due in events: people are trying. I was with warnings and then ass, but this thing who knows where this thing will go? It does feel like there is some pretty undeniable Bernie Sanders momentum right now, what people say about some of the other campaigns out there and like who's got out after Bernie. Is there any campaign where people are saying like yeah they could they can make a run for this. While I mean, I think the problem is that you set up. Is this big prisoners? Dilemma I mean if you look at the New York Times poor. Fifty five percent of respondents said they want a choice. It is more moderate than most Democrats, so that would make you think. Ok that well set up for Biden or Club HR or Mayor PETE, but all of them are splitting that, like so called moderate vote, and when you look at Bernice support over time,
it has gained in his lost nothing because people are rock solid I'd or die. Bernie limit the relative second choices and letting their Bernier Busters anything to various here, but no war and has risen and fallen. Peat has resumed, fallen, Biden, sort of been all over the place club charge. Surged bunch will see that goes, but Bernie just has this basis, not going that the other interesting thing was. Play a scooby doo. You want a candidate who's, more moderate or more liberal than most Democrats and the moderate can it went by like it's like fifty five 236a really a lot of margin, but then they also asked do you want? I can he was going to bring big change to Washington and shake things up or something like that or one who will return to before Donald Trump and the gun that won the big change one out not buy a lot, but by like points so I do think you know ideology as we set for a long time is sometimes you know, disgusted among pundits and in DC, in the way that voters think about things is not enough.
Thoroughly in neat ideological aims? They think about candidates who are going to bring bring change, are gonna, take things back to normal, like they might be thinking about this race in different ways, and there is a conflict inside of people's intention when they're going to vote here, because they feel that country is broken and some fundamental way. The election of Donald Trump I was that, and they are receptive to the arguments that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren make about about the need for big in dramatic changes to get out of this mass that were in and yet at the same time after three years of a disastrous, mean spirited vicious hateful, chaotic administration and time in which the economy does seem to be doing better. There is also a fear of just chaos and uncertainty as well, unlike I think that that are completely reasonable place for a lot of people to me. I just wanna things like it. Just it seems like no.
Figured out how to take on Bernie or even try has got yeah when they were all piling on Elizabeth Warren over Medicare for all they did it in a way that was complimentary to Bernie. Saying he's going to raise taxes at least he's honest about it like no one is evil trying to lay a glove on him- and I don't know- I'm not sure who the right and messenger for that attack should be but They should hurry up. No, I suppose, over the weekend there is a story about how burns opponents are starting to confront him directly. But all it hasn't. That story is mere pizza out a phone. Using appeal that said quote we SK nominating a candidate who cannot be Donald Trump and November closures. His Medicare for opposition? Wouldn't be viable, A general election should have that, but, like Joe Biden has just not really been attacking. I think that changing today so waigel is Dave Waigel is at the by event right now by does not refer
the Bernie my name, but he is saying things like as one of the leaders of the Medicare for all effort said. I don't know how much going to cost, but we have to do it. That's not how a bill gets passed to a man never a fan name, I'm not gonna name they land of a cause. It's then at age that is, as I say, I shall home in a paper really my campaign other say they're going to spend sixty trillion. I dont think you win with that. I think it scares the living daylight set of people. Seeing the name, but that you it's a piece. You far left Critique Plaza. He can't win pretty in there If I were them, I would try to figure out how to make an ability. Could cheek in look I'm not saying that that's the right? to do morally, are objectively accurate, I'm just saying it's the Tec, I would go. The other chat. Though, is that, like Bernie, has this online cash register that he just rings every time someone attacks him and up in a couple million bucks roles in and that's gotta, be terrifying. To these candid he's also done a pretty good job of creating his own media infrastructure. There streaming more events are doing. Things are, differ.
An interesting not going through the media filter and like look Joe Biden Schedule is very light. He's like doing a couple of them today may be three MAX just now. Always like peach now in town in Iowa, not leaving. I see Biden will be the same, but they have so catching up to do they do- and you know the New York Times had story this morning about their Paul, where they said that there is a certain segment of ILO voters who voted in the democratic primary and twenty eighteen in it was a. I'm area, not a Caracas and then now are saying they're they're, probably not gonna caucus caucus takes a lot more to Comcast than it does to vote, and we talked about and by misleading those voters by eleven points and so and their older, and so one of we were just time. One of binds challenges this week. Is to mobilise older voters, which is a tough challenge to do, and people who are comfortable voting in a primary. But
essentially going to cut costs, as in the sound a little familiar from two thousand and set out me. I never married Clinton Obama at the end, how bout just a surprising uptake from the from from the insurgent who is going to, had if, if, if, if Bernie were to win Iowa, he leaves Iowa with just money kind of fallen on the back of his pig truck. We! U talk studies it he one last time in twenty. Sixteen next up on the calendar, New Hampshire, which is doing very well and now Joe Biden is not doing very well- and you know you got you and dad hot about this, but it remains true. You know, we don't know how much money Biden has to leave. You with yeah I remember in two thousand and seven it wasn't just that he'll reclined was surprised in Iowa. It was at her strategy left with very few resource is after Iowa and New Hampshire, and it seems like bind, might find himself in this impetus if you're potential Biden, supporter and you're like. What's your seven, five years old and you are deciding whether to step outside on freezing cold night words icy out and potentially fallen break your hip or not like that's a tough.
Ah they're not gonna, do is literally the kinds of considerations people are making and the child for binding. Is it no one seems to think he has a good organisation? No one seems to think he has a feel team that its doing get out. The Kok has calls and setting up rights for people and making sure these get to the poor burn he's got a massive volunteer base, unlike their whole strategy, is to bring in brand new people to the Caucasus for the first time potentially latino voters, young voters, and, if their able to do that, they are going to just swamp these precincts Anne and we're gonna. Have they turn out number for the ILO Core, This is in aggregate the tyre that anyone expected, which will benefit him. Just a return to the New York Times on this. I think it does tell a pretty simple story here and it's not just those ports most of the poles, and that is that Joe Biden has basically maintained his level of support since the beginning of this race. He hasn't move per down, but that's part of the issue, he hasn't gained almost any new supporters overtime right he's just kept his base. Bernie say as in all these poles. All of his moment
from all of the vote is gained, or at least most of it has come at Elizabeth Horns, expense to pretty simple story. It was before and found the poles. Her support, went to Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden say the same and that's why Bernie Sanders is either a head or with by now I will say on the Elect ability argument that you were talking about. Timing in the same way. Your times for fifty six percent of carcass goes, as are the polar Bernice leading by eight point. Fifty six percent of carcass goers said that they thought a democratic socialist would have a harder rather than your time defeating Trump, which is a higher number than those who said the same, but woman, a gay candidate or one over seventy five. Then they did general election is fully deserve like debility. What's your poison indirect they did general election match ups against Trump, and I was so that the pole didn't just pull cock a score. Is it also puts him Republicans and independence to to do a general action Paul, the state trump beads?
and by one point- and I owe a forty five to forty four, but he beats Bernie by six points. Forty eight to forty two, which was the second worst match up of any democratic candidate, just ahead of MIKE Bloomberg, who did the worst now you know you can look this a couple ways: a Donald Trump one Iowa by about ten points, twenty sixteen against Hillary Clinton, so that all of those are much closer than that. But you know Bernice. Camp and will put out a bunch opposing Bernie beats Trump and if you look at all the averages, Bernie is currently ahead of Trump nationally by a couple of points, and but when you get to the battleground states where he needs to win, I think Bernie is ahead of trumpets, Michigan Close in Pennsylvania. Close in Wisconsin, not even close in Arizona Florida Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in Arizona Florida so could Bernie when yes, absolutely but are there real, elect challenges that so far his opponents have
been mentioning. Oryx will keep it all. It seems like it with all the data with the Kaweah that, of course, poles or a snapshot in time campaign, hasn't been run. Yet we don't know, what's gonna happen, Joe Biden could fair worse against him. If he's the nominee and are in a campaign, goes on Bernie Sanders could fare better against Trump as the campaign goes on, but that is where things are in essence. It is worth you know, tat. You know there has. There hasn't been that much of an elected Billy argument made against Bernie NUTS and that certainly true, but are the issue. Here. Is we're not dealing with a decision between two people right that for all we know there is a lot of people out there who are looking at Bernie, like I really like where he sat by, I just feel for for election. Billy. I want to be with one of the moderates, but you have Joe Biden. In a car in the moderate lane, with a bunch of moderate stuck behind him, trying to pass him and the Cancun around him, and you know just passing them on the left and it may be a bunch of people over there in that moderate lane that that that wish they could get behind one person and speed ahead, but I just haven't,
opportunity and I think this really just one of two possibilities here either job and will be the nominee of the Democratic Party, in which case all of this past year, has been the story of a slow and steady MA do an inexorable nomination in which their strategy was correct and there are enough people out there who just ready to just go for the safest pick or Joe Biden was the JEB Bush of his race and he held the moderate, but wasn't able to make the moderate the nominee and it left it open for someone else so Onenote for for Warren is that I do think she has probably the best organization in the snow, and maybe that can help her solve, keep the supporter or build it or grow it in places that people don't expect. What's really, I think surprising. First, it was surprising for her was how much Medicare for all and that
I heard her among young voters. According to your timetable in two that she, which is fighting an uphill climb from the very beginning over these elect ability can turn concerns which are entirely sexist. Yes, and that just really sucks I mean her team is doing a great job there. Fighting it out is by no means over, but I was trying to imagine how I would have felt in two thousand eight. If Brok Obama lost the, I will Cox's because a bunch of voter said an african American could when now be fucking, outraged yeah I mean she did so she got the biggest endorsement in Iowa Damone Register at Register Editorial Board over the weekend. Hurrah warns competence, respect for others and status as the nations first female president would be a fitting response to the ignorant, sexism and xenophobia, the Trump Oval office. At this moment, when the very
fabric of american life is at stake. Elizabeth oranges. The present this nation needs is a great at oral, as you said, is also maybe get the best organization the state, but she's probably fall in the most of the top or candidates in these poles. How much do you think the register endorsement and the organization sort of could matter in this last week here think the organization could matter Senor really, I think that in one register endorsement like Hilary got into designate Obama still one, I think it's only lobby will pick up the paper and they say. Oh the register endorsed this person. Therefore, I will I do think It is a good news story in a good argument for the candidate who gets it at a key moment when people really paying attention, so obviously a net benefit, but it's probably not move a lot of voters. I mean the good thing she can do. Is you re caught your tv ads you put in endorsed by the domain registrar you throw up some really great quotes, and it feels like a local validation.
Who you are finally Lesotho PETE, whose closing focusing I was seems to be voters who supported Obama, twelve and shifted a trump four years later campaign officials, told scene, and that he's bill, and Elect ability argument and is looking to seize on the fact that Iowa has more so called pivot counties. Those places that went Obama Trump than any other state. The country he'll be campaigning in those countries are weak and he also headlined a Fox news, town, HOLLAND, Moyne on Sunday night. What does what is PETE need to do here? Where it would you hear about peed on the ground and when you are now, I think the strategy's interesting. I mean, I think what will happen on Congress night. Is there will be a bunch, a different way. To spend a results, you could say. Oh, I got the most in the raw vote, total the traditional winners, a person that gets those delegates who, obviously that will be seen as important. But if you can make an argument that says I candidate extra he just PETE, did really well in these counties that flip from Obama to Trump. That is an interesting spin on Elect ability. Now a lot of these counties that we're talking about that flipped are like way gone. There is one that football
a forty point, forty one point zero and that there were winning them back, but you know it it's a narrative coming out of Iowa. That is certainly interesting and one of its a story is getting ready to tell preparing for the fact that he may be in second or third or even forth, and and and that there is still a good story from it go on to New Hampshire PETE decided long ago- that he would try to be the better button as opposed to attacks. Just show everyone that he is the moderate who can now kickin when this race- and I will say that where he does have an advantage. Although it's also a challenge is
you know, he's the Canada New York Times, but where people said I want a moderate, not a liberal right and so PETE fits the moderate category, but also PETE supporters. People were supporting supporting believe that that he's a candidate who can deliver big change in Washington and not go back to the way things were so he's the only the binding closer to our supporters. Both think they're, just Canada, can be Trump and take us back. The worn in Sandra supporters think they're the candidates of big change. The peat supporters are mixed. The feeds aborted actually think he could represent big change because he's young and outside Washington, but also that he's not quite as liberal but again as I'm making that argument, that's like a very on paper of argument and an know. Voters sometimes just boat with, like yeah, that's trio, but it still works. If you get to the simpler argument underneath- and I go back to what he said in an interview months ago, at this point- where he basically said, if you believe Joe Biden going to be the nominee you're not in this race, if you're in this race, you believe he's not and if you believe he's not this is what you do and Joe you know
knows how we leave Iowa awoke, but he clearly the very smart guy, curious thinking, Well, I'm not going to Bernie, Bernie or knocking out Liz. Warren was Warren, but if I out by and by Dan in Iowa and vine, has a abysmal before I would just no not predicting interest if that were to happen, he would leave in a strong yeah. I think people who need to beat biden- and I were I mean- some one I will talk to you now after was described him as America's favorite grants, on which I thought was like a pretty good description. It's no. Wilt thou, they mean he's by far the youngest Canada in the race and his terrible numbers with young voters and look. This is in predictive the results, but it was notable to me how universal the dislike is for PETE among the other campaign,
a bad taste in the mouth for him. So why didn't that? As I dont know exactly, I look at me. I think it's probably case by case like if you were on the quarry Booker campaign, and everyone was talking about a young mare who is a road scholar. You could get why thou O Connor trigger you and piss you off, but I also just feel like they. Don't they don't trust him and in up again, like I irrationally hated other candidates that we ran against point campaign in particular, I was totally wrong about her I irrationally hated other candidates that we ran against couldn't campaign in particular. I was totally wrong about her. She was one of a purse work with great secretary state. Everybody here and yet you know it's and of course, on Twitter Peters. You know it's scary. No, I smell twitter, but is notable in all these polls that he is extremely well liked in Iowa, among Coxcombs are even IRAN among people weren't support.
Is notable in all these polls that he is extremely well liked in Iowa among cock, a score that even a run among people weren't support. I dont think this feeling extends to voters per se yeah right you're sure got quality times in even though she's you see tee, she still have a chance friends from the union leader in New Hampshire, quality times, and I owe you too, you see tee. She still have a chance here when we went what is clover char, trying to do here in this house, because she's not hidden viability and almost any these poles. Even if she surging yeah, look at many surging, I don't know, I mean she certainly seems to have some momentum and got abounds out of this thing, but I think the bar for success for her is alot lower. I mean, I think, if she can get a surprise, third or even a really close forth. That would make an argument for her to go on and really keep competing in you sure and the later states. The Jones, though again, is it hard for me not to look at
the way. This support is split between Biden and PETE Enclosure and think of all of them as a spoiler for the others, and so I dont know how they sort this out, because each of them, like we ve, been running a campaign for a year or longer, there's no way in hell you're giving up, because your word that you're the spoiler you think you deserve to win. That's why you're in this race, but there's a chance where those three and at making a path for Bernie Lot easier and look. We should just say we know we ve been looking had a little bit, but when you look ahead a long way, you know Bernie Ones, Iowa, let's say when it Hampshire even wins, Nevada, bird, the very good chance Burnet when the first three states, Joe Biden when South Carolina, we got a super Tuesday, Bernie ones. The biggest prizes is Super Tuesday, California or is currently leading. Even if that happens is a lot of states. Go and they'll be a lot of candidates who probably dropped out by then and a lot of vote consolidated behind someone, so we could be in it for men
This could be a very long drawn out primer, yeah, good times, as I am aware, ok when we come We will have Dan's interview with as reclining Party Amerika brought by cash cash talks a lot about being the fastest way to send money, invest in stocks and Bitcoin and get instant discounts places you love what we haven't met, are these five extremely real features coming your way in twenty twenty exciting one, a button that plays the last page of the great Gatsby remind you that nothing is more dangerous than love has not the meaning of the last page of the great Gaspe correct at all to one free, our of gruelling investment advice with John of it by low sigh is brutal, done, three carrier pigeon integration from moving money and low signal environments for dark chocolate mood, that's one five, finally after
hence product testing, the ability to successfully pay the dead apologies to our beta users. We require, but what you said of brokers This is a provided by catch up, investing a subsidiary of square and member S. Ipc, Download, from the app store Google placed or today use the referral code. Crooked, seven letters, one word receive ten dollars in cash apple or send ten dollars to our good friends. Donors the host of the S recline podcast any co host of the weeds broadcast and now the author of the new book. Why were polarized Azra walking about their work, a pleasure to be arrogant, it's bad gas and now the author of the new book. Why were polarized as welcome They work a pleasure to be arrogant. As I told you before, we got on MIKE. I, look over the weekend. It really cause me to think, deeply about a lot of things, First in my biases made me question a lot about things I thought about politics, but start by asking you of
we know, based on my enter your very busy guy. Why is the topic? polarization than when you wanted to explore. So we ve been talking for years back when you at the White House, I've covered my background is covering policy and, as I covered health care politics, if we will correct fight as a cover. The dogs, and fight the stimulus, fights unemployment, insurance fights on the effort to reappraise motel up behind everything. I've ever covered it always the same pattern, which is you begin and you're in these rooms, with members of the Senate, from both parties or think tankers from all sides, and theirs big zone of potential compromise policy, as you know, is its positive, something you shall you can come up with a policy. Puzzle they would make things better for a lot of different people simultaneously doesn't mean urban gets everything, but you can really and struck things to be better and then by the end, they'd be these wars right and it all which clubs. Down to the party line vote, I mean your member during the affordable care act at the beginning chuck round.
Say one of the central senators. In that same, oh, we agree on eighty to ninety percent of health insurance. We all agree on having an individual mandate and then later on, he's voting for point border in the ascent calling an individual, Mandy Unconstitutional and one of things that found again and again in politics. Is that a lot of the stories we told about at this? you told about individuals and the ways we seem to think it work just one true they did. Scribe outcomes, you weren't a framework that was usable, and so I came to realize it. You had to stand things through the lens of party polarization, because in the end to his party polarisation that was driving, how come of every vote driving the outcome overall of elections is why Donald Trump ends up putting together coalition. That doesn't look like some fully new in politics it looks like Mitt Romney coalition, with some changes on the edges and are trying come build a ground up. There three of how polarization works, how it works on a psychologically how it supports the part into coalitions how the media's involved in it seems to me important too
have a way of understanding politics, the described. What was really how meaning as opposed to what we wished was happening and when you, talk about polarization in the book. You make it pretty clear this is a trend we ve been on for a long time but it's not necessarily a bad trend. In fact, at there's a time political scientists thought we needed more polarization. Can you explain that yeah so? And I think it is useful here to say we don't even define it while supposition just means things, are clustering onto pulse right. Think about it in terms of magnets, if you have a bunch of metal filings on on the table and to migrants on the sides, if polarization if the magnets are weak, a lot of filings I'll between than turn up the power on them, the magnets go to both sides, Neva polarized, think, and we do not always have the parties function. That way during the mid twentieth century, which is where a lot of people in american politics baseline their understand what american politics should look like it's a period of time or American Baltics is thought of
story ends and political pundits to have work best with parties run up Forest- and this is genuinely weird tumors herself in this history, because he recalled republican democratic parties. There is professional similarity, but you ve liberal Republicans in the North you have conservative democratically in the south. You functionally have a four party system of Democrats. We think about them today: Dixie cracks in the south, liberal Republicans in the northeastern and Republicans and die Matt. You also have a lot of demographic mixing in the party, so the pernicious look a similar. You have world Democrats and you have real Republicans urban Democrats and urban Republicans. You have a lot of black Republicans, Jackie Robinson, famously is republican, and what happens in this period is that the Democratic Party comes. A party of civil rights and race was fundamentally the thing de forming the party system. You had
conservative wing of the Democratic Party in the south. That was democratic, not because etiologically they were liberals, but because Republican Party had invaded the south and occupied it, and so they had pin. They were democratic and This was not actually as good a period as our political history like to pretend it is amazing port and point as we use polarization so often in epithet. It's bad things are polarized ensure it can be an and often is, but oftentimes, the alternative polarization is suppression and one of the things that kept the american political system D, polarized twentyth century was lot of suppression of portable racial joy. This issues? Southern democrats use user power in the Democratic Party to block by linking laws of rights, blossom and and so on. So several change. This is Barry Goldwater than converts republican Party, which had voted in pretty high numbers for the Civil Rights ACT in Congress. He converted into a home for white backlash politics, the Democratic Party becomes more Party, racial justice, this creates the conditions for Democratic Party
come. The liberal party and the Republican Party become the conservative party allotted southern democratic conservative senators, Ekstrom Thurman turn over. They become republic. And when they become Republicans, notably, they become v conservative Republicans right. They had always been very conservative and once had happened, a crew the space for this huge demographic sorting and when we go into the numbers on this, but you end up Having now these parties assorted very heavily by race by Geography by religiosity, by psychology, by culture and by ideology and, as you stack these pretty powerful identities on top of each other, you get a huge out of collision and conflict between the party coalitions which fine, up, as you say, on political scientist thought. I think, understandably, that we needed have two very different looking parties in this country, so voters can make informed choices and then those choices honour. The problem is you who tell from the White House is why
We have a political system where you can govern effectively. If you can't get high levels of compromise and what polarization fundamentally means you cannot get that kind of compromise. So the problem on levels. Not actually polarization is that we will put a whole system. We cannot govern amidst conditions of polarisation and, like you right in the book of very precisely about how I density dries. Polarization and political identity is essentially become or partisan identity has become almost a mega identity which supersedes everything else about you right, we're what here we talk about your own identity as someone who was from California and owns a dog and as a father that ultimately, the identity that drive so much else as your partisan identity. What that has not always been the case. What made that and it seems to be like in your own, the book on how this has been happening on sort of an inexorable trend for a long time right. The bush was
most polarizing, president ever Obama was next most polarizing president, and then he was Superman. Goodbye trap I would like the last her presence of each been the most polarizing in history. That is right. Different than Bill Clinton, who, at the end of the nineties, why despite being impeached, had incredibly high approval, writing so you have a sense of. Why is it that something happened around the turn of the century that sped this process up? To make it so much? more extreme than it felt bank. Is I've been politic politics since the last year of Bill presidency? My First campaign ever was out was Al Gore's presidential election And I can see the difference dramatically over that time, and so I'm curious what think are the factors that are making it happen faster. If that's again so I should say that Bill Clinton was in his time the most pausing precedent in in pulling
so it has been rising in its way for a long time you a bunch of interesting stuff in their. So so let me take a couple pieces of it. One thing you mentioned and super import into the analysis of the book is we make a terrible mistake and talking about identity politics as a single identity as if we have one, but we all have many hundreds, thousands right, I mean, as you, SAM Jewish, California and I'm a father? I'm a dog owner, I'm a vague and I'm a liberal and so and so forth. What has been happening in power? tax is a fusing of identities so that when We are challenged politically or inspired politically or simply asked to think politically its queuing up a lot more parts of our and it would have been at other points in the way put aside this talk about this- is cross. Cutting verses, unified identities, cross cutting entities is think about a voter who is a Democrat, but there you know why
evangelical Jellicoe mail in the south, that's a voter who might vote for Democrats most of the time, but is probably not going to be too threatened by Republicans. He will see a lot connected with them there. On the other hand, if you imagine a voter who is ultimately, woman, african, American in an urban area and atheist feast, etc. Thereupon, parties can be much more threatening to her because the Republican Party, both in terms of its policy proposals, but also in terms of who it honours, who respects who it includes. I has lot less respect for her way of life and we have allotted dot on this in countries where there are more cross, cutting identity, civil Horace, twelve times less likely than in countries where the become very unified, so that I think, is one important level of it. The way I understand polarization of this kind is a kind of flywheel you're asking: why does it seem to be speeding up? And my answer be that its building on itself, so the first half of the book is about building this sort of history and psychology. How do
think about identity. How do we understand information when we're looking at it through the lens of identity and import at any being something we all have not as we sometimes sane and politics, something only more marginalized groups have, but the second of the book is. All about the ways it is created, these feedback loops with institutions, and this is where I think we really get it to the story of acceleration since a turn of the millennium. So a couple samples one is a media which I'm in which your and when you go back, when there were local monopolies, you had three networks at had airwave monopolies. You had a local newspaper. You had some radio stations. The business model was built on. Try to not offend anybody cause you needed everybody who might watch advertising to justify your monopoly. That was how the whole system functions as he moved into space media. You have cable news. You have digital news, you have podcast, you have everything, this entire smorgasbord of information that we benefit from and sometimes overwhelmed by it become sick.
Should we are competing for an audience that one has a lot of other choices but too because a lot of other choices, people who opt into political news are very poor as if chosen aside, they have something or fighting for right. They they did their here because they care, but that over time does change the way you operate. It changes the kinds of headlines get clicked on, even if your turn of dupe the non polarizing work. If what is lying by IRAN. Social media is your most polarizing work, because that is what connects into people's identities. That's also gonna change people's perceptions of you, but what Happens, then, is if the media polarizes treats more poorest audience that then polarization more which employers as media, more and so on elections. Our great example there is both on the record Russians from the Bush team mom like Mark Beginnin, but also political science, suggesting that for most, say the twentieth century. The way that political consultants and campaigns thought about the electorate was yet these big groups a swing voters,
you're trying to get that persuadable Middle Bill Clinton was a candidate who is designed to hit a persuadable middle. He was a Democrat, but was a southern white man. He made a big show moderation. He challenged democratic party on key issues. He was a deal seer, and so what they were trying to do is create a Democrat who could get the base because he was a Democrat, but having lost two presidential elections before that could in over these sort of wavering voters in the middle. What begins happening? at the number. Those waters begins shrinking and it's the Bush administration critically. The Bush team in two thousand and four that looks at the two thousand results and realizes just that many persuadable voters anymore. What we should be doing is running base, mobilization campaigns and so Bush into Thou runs as this almost clause. I democratic makes a big deal of his relationship with his democratic lieutenant governor in Texas. He, runs on closing the racial education gap in and you runs basically, republican Democrats can feel ok about not going not gonna love,
ok about that's, we get Ralph Nadir in this treaty and Tweedle done stuff bio for he's. Republican Republicans can feel great about a much more divisive campaign and this kind of thing stacks as you at campaigns that are much more about drawing sharp line inspire your base. That makes it so there are fewer undecided voters, because the choices clear that then further in devices. You to run that kind of campaign which makes fewer persuadable voters and so on and so forth it all has as flywheel quality building on itself in the book in the interim you talk about how we look at a broken political system. It seems like just a giant church, but it basically else down to rational people, acting rationally within their own interests. What do you mean by that? I think that we have a tendency to look at when things are broken and either somebody's screwing us over or their bad people, if we could get a different person in there The thing to understand about american politics is: it is a system and the system shapes incentives. Are the people who work in it and I think one
a truly radicalizing and frustrating things of american politics is theirs is endless. Fight too. We see things ok into which had replaced the people, but we don't make the system works, I think you see some displaying playing in a democratic party right now. Look one one theme of the primary has been a building critique of the Obama administration. Why didn't it get more? Why wasn't able to pass a public ups into Obama CARE and a stimulus? It was twice as large and- and I think that, because There is a tendency to look at that in terms of this individualised narrative, you know, Larry Summers, didn't you know, on the thing and unit unite. I've been through a lot. I think there's a real under emphasis on structural and institutional barriers at or why people make the decisions they make wine anti pussy says we can pass a stimulus of over trillion dollars. Why the abomination and ends up having to spend a bunch much time worrying about Ben Nelson's, vote on the affordable CARE Act and he's the hinge about? It's? Not you know of summit, whose much more liberal- and
If you want very different outcomes, you need a different system that incentive ices people to make different decisions and its one reason in in my work- and I know you can do a lot of this too. I focus Lama, things like that, a buster and the structure of Congress and what is happening in the campaign finance system, because ultimately, people going to make the decisions that makes sense for them to make and the reason things worked away. They do is not because american politics is somehow failing. The like very scary, thing is its working as we have designed to work in some ways Mitch Mcconnell best example this he has been too from doing a string of things. The drive liberals actually crazy. I think correctly so our garland being only one of many many examples here, but he has been rewarded. Or it again and again he is one more power. He has won a lot of his policy objectives, I think the thing to do to read from his success to recognise that he understands how to operate in a or I system and is willing to do that, and if you dont want that to work,
need to understand why it is working in the first place. It can just be Mitch, becomes a bad guy Mitch, Mcdonald's response, to a world around him, and if you dont want that kind of strategy to be the one people choose. You need to change the actual rules of the game. When I read the part about Sammy Lighting rationally, I agree with that in terms of their short term incentives. As you talk about the two thousand and twelve, our currency autopsy, whether after Obama wins the republic. I'll look at this all their public. Get together from the far right. To the middle, every established republicanism least looks at and as we have to change, we are if we want to win again it's not just they went in Try succeed strategy as I walked from tragedy that the damage for transit working against us, and if we don't become a party, that appeals to a broader group. Then we cannot win elections, Texas, we venture go blue, such elect college lock up, like is short termism here that is pushing
these Republican Party in this direction is always a short termism. Let's liked better public forty four minute, though, because I want to know that their incentives are strange and worked and something I want to be very careful not to seem to fall into the trap of his some kind of false equivalence. Polarization is a structure that we are all operating in the systems that we are all in are affected by it, but their public parties responded very differently and I think for two reasons are really relate to what you're saying here. One is there can party feels itself to be, and in some ways is the preventative of a war. Traditionally been aid demographic majority with a hammer lock on american political power that feels its losing it, and there is very little that becomes as desperate as the majority group. It feels itself declining in numbers, and I have a lot of evidence and above the chose the when you confront people the feeling of demographic, age and a lot of things that are happening in our society right now, outdo confront people with a feeling and reality of demographic
change Obama being just one of them, they become much more conservative. They become more concerted on issues in terms of what party they support and we are living through is very intense arab change. Current democracy will become a majority or country racially in the twenty forties, on the same things religion by then it is expected that p claim no religion, Wolf, past Protestants which are the most numerous group It's true on Gratian, were we ve gone from, but four percent of the country being foreign boy on in the seventies too, about fifteen fourteen fifteen percent now, and we are moving towards a record number in the next couple of decades. The country really is changing, and that is, I think, one of the important context it see in our politics and demographic, I'm sorry, the Republican Party. It represents the part of the country that is feeling those changes very acutely and feeling very threatened by them. Perfectly Christians, and so what happens run at autopsy? Is it a part of the party that does not feel personally threatened by this, just Still hold when power says: well, let's change, let's become
more accepting of immigrants, let's become a more open and inclusive Party and Donald Trump, is one of the people who recognises that. That is not what the Republican based ones, but the republican base wants to hold power in the form that they are currently in, not to be told they have to change their form. The other thing that I think is really important about this is yet another way in which their public parties been able to act, and I think very strange ways that they dont have. They do not have to run by the normal rules of democracy. So you think about the major power centres in american politics, a half Senate White House in Supreme Court, three afford them. Are held by the party that one fewer votes in the relevant elections for the host offices, Donald Trump, of course, one few votes in Clinton Democrats, one about in the centre with past recycles than Republicans dead, but because our Hopkins labelled a sort of leverage, their geographic at Bay into majorities there. They were also enable took to hold the Supreme Court, and so the republican part has been able to On a strategy that actually would not work for Democrats, which is to cling on
Hu, a shrinking power base that is very well geographically distributed, but that is, I think, put them in the country and a pretty dangerous place, because, instead of being able or being forced to reform and to open themselves up they are like tightening down and in part in order to hold on to power becoming much more skeptical of small democracy itself. I'm trying to restrict who can utilise the franchise trend, restrict how money flows such it. There quite advantage by it and want to things really scares me is dawning legitimacy crisis. Where you have a point That does not, when majorities using geography to keep power and use, a power at the Supreme Court level at the Senate level, etc, to make it harder for the other side to everyone, powered got public sector unions, etc. That's a kind of cod
flecked, where you're fighting over not who best represents a country but who will be able to be politically participating in the country that is both very unfair but becomes very dangerous for political systems in the long run, and if you re very persuasively about the challenge of Democrats have as they were before, of geography, electoral college, gerrymandering. All the structures in our democracy Democrats have to appeal to voters are much more conservative. Then, as you said, the median democratic voter. Which is limits. The ability to succeed, pushing obviously more ideologically theatre, left, word ideas potentially right by it is it like? Theirs is nine policy ideology, part of the Republican Party strategy, which is about power accumulation right, that is, voter suppression. That's that's because all night in America Garland seat. Gerrymandering.
When I read your book and I look at all the forces that are moving America into a more polarized way. It does raises very uncomfortable question for Democrats is what is the argument other than just doing the right thing against Democrats? Doing the inverse what Republicans are doing so examples. That would mean I think that they are not morally equivalent, but they are the it's the info. Idea, so it's They soon as Democrats have power in a state. Why not you like the sort of democratic forms that we look at our pretty their very important but they're, pretty common sense, automatic voter registration, more early voting vote. Now that sort stuff. You could go much more aggressively iron. Ex fell on voting rights. You could do things like keep eat like in the Senate.
Why not add to Supreme Court justices and get some rulings for few years? Right like what is arrogant, I pray California, to six states right by an upper California, six states. Why do we need to decode us all kinds of questions on a do we need to day. This is a fundamental question of this. Only lived and sell the good of in my life. It's a question. I asked a lot I My question is why shouldn't Democrats follow the short term. I understand the long term implications of Democrats sort of Adam. They Mcconnell ask nihilism like prevent. If we take the Senate lose the White House in twenty twenty, Not just say there will be no Supreme Court justice full stop until the next twenty twenty five I expected He Democrats will say that if they take this Senate and not nothing That's that that, aside anger to answer your question, that, for me point in a little bit differently One thing I want to say is actually worry more about the reverse. I think that one of the very dangerous things is the idea of democracy becoming a partisan issue. I'm sorry made. This point me recently, but can you imagine now a con
Additional amendment that would bring voting down from twenty one to eighteen because of it. Voters would be democratic, so it never pass right because it be. Understood as way to create more democratic voters, as opposed to something just fair to do, given that we are sending a ten year olds out to die in wars, and I've heard this from a lot of different dumb. That's talking to them. You know I and in the house that they have in some ways bought into something that, I think, is a dangerous idea, which is it even, if These grounded on correct values they should advocate for things that might have the side impact of giving them more power. So things like DC in Puerto a request. Had we should do because it is the right thing to do. The film Lester. We should do because it is a better way to govern, to allow majority parties to govern and then the publican in judge them on what actually happened a lot of these efforts. Crustacean. I think they are the right thing to do and that they should be
We argued for that reason. I am, but because its becoming a partisan idea decided bringing more people into the political process its becoming something that people little bit. Dirty arguing for is actually a book by a political scientist. New David Ferris called it's time for Democrats to fight dirty, which was making. The argument for a lot of these plans, which, in my view, artist? There is good governance plans and he would say the same, but the very frame that to me was a problem that he'd be eighty. They be fighting. Dirtied have automatic voter registration. Now you get into this harder thing, though, which is what about the things were? You are just really trying to fight over power, so you hear Democrats talking about core packing. Should the answer to what Mitchell There was no garland, be, as you say, if they had the power to do it to add seats to the Supreme Court. Theirs was more recently proposal to item like a hundred twenty states and that could balance to send it back outside and have this very strange, not that any major democrats behind that? But but visa is legal,
I'm am, I seen a bunch of different things like us and to me the thing you get into the air is: there's a version of politics which is- a finite game, as they call it near your you're trying to win right now and aversion of american politics. We also to keep in mind, which is an infinite game you're trying to maintain the system's legitimacy so that we continue having a system that and be governed. That we all agree is relatively legitimate. Are. We don't have a recent history of constitutional collapse, but other countries really do, and the idea that America will survive forever is full. And so we should have. In this way a somewhat philosophically conservative view that protecting jealousy of the system we have been gifted is an important banks. If you do things that are considered to illegitimate, that are just too much of a clear power grab thou be the norm and when you escalate against norm you buy me, we citizens three over and over again, you eventually destroy the system, herein centimetres a real difference
between saying the Democratic Party should be the party of democracy, because democracy is a good value that is worth fighting for and always has been verses They should do whatever they can do or want to do to to amass power, no matter whether or not is connected any deeper valleys hers justifiable behind any kind of veil of ignorance. This is why I really struggle with items one who agree or disagree on filibuster. I am actually for court expansion. I think it is the right thing for Democrats to do, because in my view. The alternative of like this is the staff that keeps me up. Night. All the time is when bread cap all is Ruth Bader Ginsburg age? My daughter will thirty two she turns to in May There was a very like that is a very scary thing and there is his or for democracy, when every year you have with greater strength. A conservative white minority govern.
Hang a progressive, diverse majority, that is a very dangerous infant system but putting that aside for a second, there you'll challenge here. I think the thing you so you talk about Democrats healing dirty about power. It's actually not even a new thing, because I have rustled a lot with why Democrats not make DC estate in two thousand and nine everyone supported it Obama sworn the campaign trail going ahead, taxation without representation, license plates on ends I mean I've come out for publicly in years last month, I might well, why don't you do it, and I can't even think of a single conversation that did not involve a phone call with Eleanor HOMES Norton about the topic. Never even considered in its speaks, this democratic party reticence about political power. Where d MC rats, sort of view, political powers, this into a means of policy and Republican, think of it as an end in itself and do Think Democrats, both
two thousand and nine in now, I fully understand the consequences of polarization. Are we as a party now they also another Democrats at all understand I had to be free. I don't think most of us have a good theory. Polarization witches should by my book, my removal or as by summoning she spoke of it? No, I look like part of this book is a effort on my part to wrestle with a bombers legacy, here somebody who his own life had been a rejection of course logic right here here, somebody who, in some way, if you looked at them system to simplistically he's, never gonna be precedent. This Africa guy, with a funny name in the big ears, India from Chicago. You remember the conversation Democratic Party after Afore aid. That was like. I don't work for everyone. For ever there you go there, s hair, you gotta says it all, and yet he does, and the,
Great irony of Obama, is it in certain ways his life is a rejection of polarization logic and his presidency is a confirmation of it and How does somebody like him who wanted much as he did, and it really was often taken- and you know better than I do, but but but I covered in quite a bit. He really did want to turn down the temperature on this country's political and thought about a lot and structured rhetoric in that way. I mean my God, get some things that people tried to blow up into scandals for him. From this vantage point, in the Trump era, it's just maddening, and yet that presidency for all of his good will and good intentions. It ends in Donald Trump Braided. It creates symbiotic Lee backlash leads to two Donald Trump and so I really do not think Democrats have a clear through polarization I think, an ex somewhat sick way they become accustomed. They prefer the dangers of inaction and paralysis to the possibilities of and dangers of power and an action which, if you believe
the progressive governing agenda. I think that you should believe that, if report, He's got enough power to actually repealed, affordable care, acting kick twenty million people of health insurance. That boy would notice and be upset? I think that is true, but Dumbass ACT, often as if it is it does it is so much more dangerous or Republicans would be able to govern the neighbors that they can't. But at some point the american people needed the difference and be able to make decisions based off of it. Are we just end up in this endless symbolic war and did I loved your example, that decision and and per week, oh, but I would say that my gothic think about what Our ultimately means in democratic party is more comfortable with disenfranchises ing the early black and brown residents of DC importer Rico than with the perception that giving these american citizens representation in Congress because they would freely choose potentially, democratic in the Senate and House, it would look. Tat. Death You say that allowed its deeply offensive, but
but it is in its where we ve gone and I get the wanting to be careful. System. I think a lot of Democrats, and- and this is the maybe broader point into the box, but I think the other problem is that a very naive polarization is to say: we have polarize more. System has become less functional as we polarized. So, of course, a thing we need to do is turn back the clock on polarization for reasons I led in the book you're not going to do that, but I think because so many Democrats operating space, they remember the eighties they're afraid of things would make the situation worse. When at this point, we're just in a new situation and we need to retain our governing struck. Sure so that it can work in that context, I think something it makes polarization worse is garbage coming less and less effective and say you would actually in some ways I think, take some of the press, out of the system, even if the fights would be better and real and divisive the fact that once again, other could ultimately govern if we had a more sensible system, but I think allow things to be.
Better result than would allow people to see the consequences of their various political decisions and all them to make better decisions in the future. I have enough baseline faith in the American bull taken care of her own interests that if we do system it allowed them to transit those interests into policy. I think that they would make, vision- maybe not always the ones I would make, but better than Mess were now one of the things that fascinated me in the book wise. It has been an article of faith among Democrats, including the Obama administration. It is there was, if we, if we could just give people more information, rational arguments, facts science, we can persuade them of what in the best interests of the countries themselves and other what sort of half an hour you look at it I mean there are linked. There's like a longer debate we can have about that. But in the book you talk about political science, experiment was actually show the opposite. Now, what's me about that was other than just being deeply depressing wise. You started vocs an explanatory journalism platform in
we're talking to you about it when you are launching it, which was the goal of people better opportunity to understand policy, how do you should have reconcile those things in some ways? I don't break Tell them. I say in the book that this research for me is a bit like staring into the abyss, and it really is. I think that the two kind of ideas here, motivated reasoning which, as we often reason, not find the truth, but turn to attain different goals and then identity, productive, cognition witches were. Information forces. Us to question our group's question: the people we trust the people we love. We tend to reject that information or or very sceptical of it so one. It is not the case that information is never under any context or circumstances useful. It is very hard to convince, buddy. You like all the way into something they don't want to believe, but perfectly. If people already have some baseline faith in you, which you nobly people who listen to my ipod, castor reeboks, do
people are movable right. I mean you and I have talked a lot and I think over years like I remember you telling me, things are really changed a story. I was writing because I found what you're saying convincing so it isn't it So when Your interests are sort of aligned to finding the right answer that you can't ever find the right answer, but it is to be very careful with the idea that we have, debates we hear political information as we are not often as they are and try to be very mindful of that end and thus a bit skeptical of May then I e view of political debate, which is that what I say happening on the floor of the house. When a hundred members of the house of two minute speeches on impeachment, is it anybody to actually trying to our will persuade anybody? I mean to believe that is tat point defy all evidence before us. At the very least, we should move towards having a reasonable view of this in some ways: the information people. Just don't want to believe is information. By their own processing? The information about information. We continued.
Braids on this much more fantastical an optimistic view, despite all evidence to the contrary. So that's one thing, the other two to the point very specifically about boxes, look, there's a lot of media criticism in media rustling in this book, because obviously that's part of her I'm rooted, and I think that We in the media need to think very hard about the role we play given how the ecosystem rain actually works and, to give an example, is even a little bit different from the question of giving people good policy information, we think, about the role we play as fundamentally, we cover what is newsworthy and the power the kind of disappointing. Are we have to accept. We have any is to recover positively or negatively, but what happen is that is allowed people to hack our definition newsworthy ness. We cover what is outrageous, but his conflict oriented what is offensive and so Donald Trump.
Suck up all the oxygen and twenty sixteen republican primary and some are even from the twenty sixty democratic primary by just being unbelievably outrageous pensive of all the time and even if and what he understood, ways that negative publicity didn't matter for him. What mattered was it controlling the conversation, and so, among other things, from the meeting needs to think a lot more about its rules and amplifier right. There's always talk normalizing or abnormal icing Donald Trump instinct shocked and I've made many lives, Minced myself and I rest with em all all the time. But sometimes I wonder about what, if, instead of acting like a lunatic, was a short cut into dominating the political conversation, Donald Trump was ignored more or less and accept the times when he acted like up President that he lied. He didn't get fact checked all the time and since the lies and got signal boosted, but oftentimes people too, until like turn it off his rallies issues
perverse incentive system and I don't have a great answer on this, which is why I take as the economic option. There are direct right. I mean it is such a perverse incentive system. You know how hard it was to get the media to cover a carefully constructed. Beach on manufacturing policy set at a higher steel mill that was actually died with administration is gonna, do verses. If Donald Trump does a rally: were we the media, knows in advance about the rally Donald Trump is super pissed off today, because of impeachment or whatever it might be, and he's gonna go out there and be nuts Rarely has a great chance of getting covered, live on cable, say: would you that's, not a good incentive system, fur leaders right and it I've spent probably more time, and I should thinking about what advice. I would give the next democratic president on how to conduct themselves, based on everything that I learned in my six years, working President Obama as all of these
France for tackling the media are catalyzing on themselves and having wash would happen and trump like what would the human other than just transparency, be for returning the White House Briefing Budgeting is a good thing and actually think it helps you governed better would be the argument because, as in organizing principle, but other than that, it's like what was the point right, like it did just a chance to give it up every day or like. Should ever give a policy oriented speech. What's the answer, the banana got a really hard thing, I did want to ask you about one, because we brought up the Obama administration and your efforts persuading one of the things that we hold ourselves at the end. Go to think about the erase and we get in financial crisis, but also huge democratic majorities. Historic amount of legislation passed, culminating Emma S and Wall Street reformed and then
we can take over that. It is essentially no legislative progress, executive actions. As we were thinking about the second remember sitting now a prison Obama right after he one in twelve with with in all this Elvis advisers and talk about like what should we try to do knowing We are probably overly optimistic about legislative potential, but even that was very constrained to a small handful of issues. Would be success. One success would be moving the ball in terms of public opinion forward on things this, so we can handle off to the economic represent, who we are ass. He thought was But becoming and right after us and in some sense there was a success and that right leg on immigration reform, more popular The climate change. Stay as more of aid as a threat. Right like a lot of the things that we care about the sort of
in public opinion, but so is there a distinction between how polarized the american people are around issues and the ability translate their policy positions into political. Actually, I think that's a key distinction. I'd say couple things here: and those by glib. Earlier we have worked out for you in terms of actually trying to sway people. I think it would be going way too far to say that the lessons of these areas is a bit an admin? action should not try to run a real The policy making process should not do the work of giving speeches on policy. The pursuit, if for no other reason than that creates good send it inside the administration actually work out your ideas to come up with arguments for things to consider counter arguments. I think the problem, the Obama administration was not actually persuasion doesn't work. Obama was actually in some cases, recently, persuasive and on certain issues like immigration, things got more popular over time. The problem of immigration was that John Bellinger, never about the build up the floor
and this is why again, I I do try to move things to this more systemic analysis, because I think that if you had a Guinness system, is parliamentary we're winning the election. More less means you have the capacity to govern, having a good internal policy process, where you have good reasons for the things you're doing, and you can did it on farm empirical foundations that helps you governor. On governing well, I still believe helps you when elections very good evidence at the state economy in the direction of of the country, really do matter for whether not people vote to relax a politician. The problem is that there is huge disconnect between that policy making process inside the administration and in what happened outside of its walls There was never way to answer that Obama would give speeches and then it is ok. But why isn't my job back? Why do still feel this way. Why are these problems getting vexed and so That's again. One reason I try to raise the alarm much more on how the political system operates its and translates all this end. Because look
one of the arguments I make it imagine eleven o a workplace you're in the workplace, and I, your boss, needs our help to finish a project and if you help your boss, he'll finished project and finishes project, he will get a promotion and You might get it emotion and maybe I'll even get fired from your job on. But if you don't help your boss, he won't finish the project and he might get fired and you might become the boss, and in addition to that, you know like your boss, a u like his project, and help, and that's functionally how Congress works like what I have just described: easy, actual centre structure of Congress that the minority part which you just how like what the Majority Party is doing, has power to make them succeed or fail, and if they help them succeed by working with them. The Majority Party will use out to win seats in the next election. Make minority party even weaker, whereas if they make majority party fail, the minority Party has a chance make the majority party in the next election and in its content, like that, when those are your incentives,
arguments about why health care bill is great. Are gonna work right that, like the amount of raw sitting coming from that, and you can take us fully on the level right if you're a publican, your presumably republican. As you believe it is better for the country for applicants to govern it like, even if this, it would be better overall, you think it's better if you're in power. This is crazy. Way to run a railroad like. Would you just say it frankly, of course, things work. Way they do, but we have someone, mythology built in american politics about how it looked at another time when things work differently in the parties for an ideologically polarized, and they didn't cooperate internally well and so on that we sometimes and see it, and we expect just a good speech to change the way. Doesn't the West Wing sometimes but hell even in the West wing? If you look at it cheaper than you think, much done, because I'm pretty weak presidency ha ha ha.
Having to give up office because his daughter was kidnapped was probably a challenge, but yes, I'm not seeing they'd invasive headwinds do at leg. You say that, and that is how Republicans operate But that is not how Democrats operate, because if that was all Democrats operated, they would I have done the potentially substantive. We are appropriate, but politically insane thing of approving trumps trade agreement right during a beach. I think this is trickier and inheres wine. This is a place where I think the geography issue matters. A lot Democrats are constantly trying to hold sent right districts bit identify little bit republican in way, Republicans just don't have to do to win majority power Democrats of two in summer between, or in a point, majorities in the house to empower the house on the average state according to tonight silver six points to the right of the average voter, so a lot of dumb demo
Ex strategy is actually appealing to slightly republican voters, and eight makes him make other kinds of decisions. I d love strategically insane to do the? U S embassy ideal or not, but I think it comes from that comes from this thing. Were Denmark, like Republicans, are competing to win a minority Democrats or concert competing twin more than a majority and not just Russia's your incentives very strangely. That said I I do agree that Democrats operate in a much more conciliatory fashion. I think they're buncher reasons for that, but I think that younger view one is a big one. Democrats can't win if they don't operate in a more. Silly Tory fashionably stunt believe they can when they operate and more conciliatory fashion was republicans have proven to themselves in the world that they really can win. The the other question is obvious, is definitely why they do it. But much of my pre Obama, career working for Red State Democrats and
There is a question now that I wrestle with a lot about whether geography is as important or whether all actions or national elections and weather. Wyatt. So this it like. The question is if you do something that help strictly to present recently, it helps trop that probably hurts red state Democrat acts more, and be able to run. It adds ain't. You voted with Trump helps them. That's the questioning. That's right like twenty fourteen, was sort of a test case in this, where you and all these Democrat in red states run against Obama, and do you is poorly relative to the partisanship other state, as Democrats employer states. I think I e the idiocy of quoting what modern Democrats, partly in the Obama years but in general, is not recognising that the best thing for them is that people believe the countries being governed really well
the idea that Red stay Democrats were trying to chop down the size of the stimulus or make me affordable, correct worse with higher premiums and higher deductibles and no public option, and this was gonna help them was very, very range, maybe body against something. There is some evidence it like showing real independent party helps but shaving it On the sides definitely doesn't a lot of evidence in the book about the way all politics is local is dead letter. I mean all politics functionally national now and there's a bunch of reasons. Took to look at that and by the way, a bunch of challenges that really poses for the political system. A restraint on polarization traditionally is you're able to appeal to people's local geographic interests and use the confusing the portable characters. Example that happens at the end. There were banned. Nelson is from a red state Nebraska, so he cuts of steel tat get Nebraska medicate expansion and then it becomes called the corn Oscar kick back and his republican government in Nebraska says he won't accept it like in the past I used to work, It allowed things tat. It alot unusual coalitions to form because
You know maybe that love the Bilby didn't bridge, and now we don't have that in a way that the real problem, but I dont think That means. I guess where I put, that is that what that seems to mean to me is it for the most part in overtime, political power into alignment with the g with a partisan lean of states and and house districts, not so much that individual candidates can do much strategically to navigate these water is right, just voting against Trump, sometimes voting for him. It doesn't do all that much there. A couple counter examples: a guy like Joe Mansion in West Virginia but they're, much more examples that prove that rule Then they are. Models at most politician seem able to follow. As I could talk about this with you all day I would encourage everyone to run out by. Why were polarized. It is an incredibly smart book. They will help. You understand,
What has happened in politics? I think really hope you understand what is at stake in this upcoming election and twenty. So as were, thank you. So much in please go check out the book. Everyone Well appreciated, thank you already, one thanks to Ezra Klein and to Adam shift for joining us today, and we will talk to on Thursday by pod, save America's a product of cricket media, the senior producers, Michael Martinez, arson and producer, is Jordan Waller its mixed in by Andrew Chad with Kyle certain as our sounded junior thanks to Caroline Rest, Tom, you so mediator and came off production support into our digital team, Eliza Cone, Normal Coney and Yell freed in my will camp who film and upload these episodes as a video every week.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-09.