The Trump-McConnell Supreme Court gets involved in the election, and the results of the final Crooked Media/Change Research Pollercoaster series show Biden in the lead and Trump voters in a Fox News bubble. Then TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier talks to Jon about the most promising trends in the early vote data.
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Hey you yeah, I'm talking to you collection day is November. Third, which is the last possible data.
your boat in the most important election of our lifetime. Do you have a plan to vote? If not go to vote, save America dot com, slash the state you live in. So if you live in Massachusetts, its votes have America Doc
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November. Third, let's do it
let's win, get your ass to the polls.
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What's this closing argument that people are too focused on companies,
this one of Israelis, Colbert, probably covered he's complaining, he's jealous of carbon.
Maybe a cup welcome. The pod save I'm John forever, I'm dyin Pfeiffer onto his body
talk with Tom Bonnier, whose political
a firm has been analyzing. The early vote numbers not for predictions
for some interesting insights about who is voted before that wall
break down the results of our final
coastal survey with change research talk about what the Trump Mcconnell take over of the Supreme Court. Could me
for the election and answer a few of your questions about the final few days of the twenty twenty campaign. This is it. Then this is,
I feel- and I was up at three o clock this morning- made them feel I won't. I was allowed to reflect as well
I've been trying to go to bed earlier, knowing that I wake up in the middle of the night and that didn't really work as I was up late prepping for the pod. So there you go couple days out. A few quick notes check out the final.
Save the world before the election were Tommy and Ben tucked away
Joe Biden senior campaign advisors are friend, Tony blinkin.
about what abiden foreign policy would look like and what's at stake in this election at the global level, great interview with Tony check it out.
I also want to give a shut out to the in credit
team, at what a day who work celebrating?
one year of their fantastic.
Daily news Pike Ass, a cannibal
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Travis hell of crooked media fame was just tweeting. Yesterday he was very nervous about the poles like we all. Are he signed up for a text bank in Florida tax at a bunch of people got ten.
It Travis true, as gets ten voters, it's better.
He's done on twitter in years. You know
You too, you too can get voters,
me for Travis ten voters. He gets ten voters in a phone back, but he probably loses nine voters per tweet. So
more from a banking illustrating yeah. That's that's right
We will not a news to get too. I do want to start Dan with them. You know the president is continuing. His super spread. Rallies all over the country, just
giving people covered wherever he goes now he's
by giving them hypothermia here,
in Omaha for a rally last night, and
after the rally was over. In thirty degree whether he took his
doktor, he took marine one out of the rally. He
left all of his supporters there who were stranded because a bus took the mare, but the bus wouldn't pick them up to go back to the parking lot were there.
these were, and so there was no Trump campaign bus, and so they all wandered around in freezing, whether for a couple hours and in seven of them
to go to the hospital because they had hypothermia
Well, that's not a fuckin metaphor. I do not know what is trump we
supporters in the call luck. If a cosy doesn't get you, the cold will think about the fact that
in twenty six deem. It was an entire scandal that Hillary Clinton called some of his supporters deplorable. He has given them
covert and hypothermia. That's how much would Donald Trump thinks of his supporters.
There has been sort of a banner day for the Trump campaign like killing your supporters. Never good right.
Trying to kill them. Two different ways and the same event really bad will end,
Kate one of his spokespeople
How can someone went on CNN this morning and they asked,
about whether it made them
for the vice president. You gotTa Wisconsin, because Wisconsin's experience experience serious spike in covered.
Hospitals are nearing capacity, they are so did it makes sense to have a large crowd event. There
His answer was, of course, it made sense the
President has access to the best doctors, just like Doll
from saying like I got covered no big deal, I had access to a lifesaving treatment that none of you can have this. That's that's Donald Trump! Sorry,
think of it. I got better. I got better, I told everyone I thought I was going to die and I was scared shitless. But then I got a man.
treatment that none of you can get you'll be getting it soon enough. Next couple weeks, everything from a couple weeks, but for now just you know, hang out amongst yourselves with israeli no big deal
so that's it the president's doing he's closing strong. He did get some
news earlier in the week Monday night was not great Dan
bad enough that the Senate confirmed eighty Coney bear to the Supreme Court by a vote of fifty two to forty eight, the first time in modern history, a justice was confirmed without a single vote from the majority Party, but then later that day,
the court's right wing majority rule, but all Wisconsin mail in ballots will be thrown out if they arrive
after election day, even if their postmarked before election day. Even worse, was afoot
in breadth, Cavanaugh concurrent opinion, where he argued that states that require mail in balance to be returned by election day quote want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of improper
Eighty that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in
after election day and potentially flip the results of an election, essentially echoing one of Donald Trump, many voter fried conspiracies. That's what bat, bread cabinet,
dead so lot to unpack here. None of it even remotely
right. Let's start with Justice Barrett who was sworn in by Clarence Thomas it. Yet another White House Super Spreader event with Donald Trump, so here
could get a campaign photo up, no masks, of course,
like. The entire stunt was a perfect encapsulation of how trumpet the Republican Party, which includes Amy County, bear. It just have zero fucks left to give. They had
super spreader event.
When they nominated Amy Code, Barrett Bear Trump got covert, bunch of White House staffers got covered
This Christie ended up in the hospital. Donald Trump ended up in the hospital they spread covered throughout DC. She gets confirmed back to the way
for another party? I hate it.
It's not surprising that Donald Trump through that, because he is
bed and his default is always whatever the most dangerous pro
covered thing is he's going to choose and every victims out the obvious.
because in his weird demand,
little brain to not do another. She whispered event would be to admit they covered is contagious.
To admit his faults, we obviously he would rather do people cope with that committee is wrong
the thing it is notable that Amy Coney bear it went to the event participated, not
just in the swearing in, but also in a photo wop hanging off the balcony. Would she very well knew would be parted.
A last minute, trumped campaign, commercial, centrally taxpayer, funded camping, commercial,
and went along with that. She did not have to do the right. It is pretty rare in a preacher.
era for justice is to be is explicitly involved Abbas, particularly one who's going to she left
about to go to work at the court. The next day do therefore rule on cases that have employment.
Since for the Donald Trump reaction and
the fact that she put herself
opposition. Allow that to happen. Did it gleefully? Is a giant warning sign about the kind of justice she will be? It is yet,
Another is that this is not a concern of justice is not
You know in a list. This is another republican political hack put on the court to do
Nothing more than reward republican donors and may show
Party states empowered, that's what it is. It is not the
can sort of this is not
you know some sort of historic discussion about a dispute about legal principles. It's about republican political power and she play that role willingly.
John Roberts is a conservative justice. Anthony Kennedy was a conservative justice. You know once in awhile had I had a good decision.
Any country Barrett bread, Cavanaugh, are partisan, hacks around the corner. That's what they're
I think the generous as a person hack. Can he tell us it. I do not want to say that I want to make this clear I or does it like. John Robertson's decisions are horrific, but they come from
a conservative ideology that we deeply disagree with. It is bad, it is a
bad ideology that is very harmful to people, but it
mostly cohesive its minors. I know you like your where this is not our chamber, but here
John Roberts, it's just a smarter political, hackneyed. Brett covenant right
in two thousand and eight Democrats, washed away Republicans by building a massive internet, grassroots fundraising, machine.
About a year later, the for one of the first decisions that is made by the Roberts court
Is citizens united?
only way to allow the public to compete is to change campaign for animals, overturning a recent precedent and Mcconnell verse, Effie see from a few years ago, then
Democrats win and twenty twelve with a massive turn out of black and
but he no voters. They got John Robber
gets the Voting rights ACT under the false premise that
Racism in elections is over
so like Robert suggest club more clever than the rest of these people. He would not have shown up at that event by. We should be
You're watched on our words very carefully for ruling
that will respond to it by victory in a way to help republican Party power.
I do not like some years just as enough. I know I don't either. I'm just saying I, like I layer, John Roberts Fan admit like is working
It is believed that, like fuckin corporations are people injured like be able to say whatever they want. They believe that there should be voting right protections like that. That is their fucking awful belief. You know
but it is their belief like, like
Haven't is we're about to talk about is on a fuckin revenge trip. That's it break out. As on any fuckin dumb,
Tony Blair. It again doesn't give a shit chilled she's, she's she's a campaign prop, and she is proud to be a campaign prop. That's that's what you
anyway. There all bad
so shortly. After being sworn injustice, bat received a request from the loser in County Board of elections in Pennsylvania. To accuse
from a Supreme Court case where Republicans in Pennsylvania also want
ro male imbalance that arrive after election day. The court order.
rejected the republican request to throw a ballots in a four four tie ruling last Friday, because Roberts World, with the liberal,
but now they hope it if they bring the case again, bear or rule with the conservative majority learn county asked
bear to accuse herself, because Trump publicly said that he needed her on the court to help him when the election is there any justification for bear it not to refuse, or so
in this case no it, but there is no one to make her huge yourself, because Supreme Court justices do not
by any sort of code of ethics, no rules about refusal can do whatever
whatever they want, which is something we should change, but of course she
he's going to sit on hearing of course of this case com, she's, gonNA, Roth, Republicans thing it's like its aid.
this is this? Is why she's there? This is why they rush this because they easily could have done this next week.
where they could have confirmed her afterwards, even when they
still in power with
rushing this in the very deeply dangerous ways they did it because
need they want her. Therefore, those wrongs
and she will gleefully doing gleefully so between these was continent Pennsylvania about cases? There are two big concerns. Most immediate concern is that a bunch of voters won't know about these rulings and therefore mail in their ballots too late, because they thought they had thought of was postmarked by a certain day and it arrived after election day. It would still be ok,
in Wisconsin? Now that is not the case. So what do we do about that? To avoid that the campaigns and state democratic parties are doing everything they can to vote,
I know that if they haven't absentee ballot, they need to personally hand deliver their ballot to either a dropbox or come
Elections office, if you're in Wisconsin or County Elections office, if you're in Pennsylvania super super important
Do not mail in your ballots. At this point, do not tell the people in your life
who have male imbalance, have not sent him? And yet do not
them envy a mail at this point, drop them off. Personally, you can look at votes if America come to find out either. If there's, if you're state has dropped boxes, you can do drop boxes. If there's a colony elections office, you can do that depends on the state, so drop off your balance in person. That's that's number one that but there's a broader concern has to do with his cabinet footnote that I mentioned,
where he endorsed a Bush VIII Gore argument that the Supreme Court can essentially overrule the way state Supreme Court's interpret a states.
Election law, which basically gives the United States Supreme Court Veto power over what
Four states Supreme Court's decide is the right interpretation of election laws. That's what that that's? What break haven't, I think, should happen and, of course, there
also cabinets insane comment that quote:
If the apparent winner the morning after the election ends up losing too late arriving ballots, charges of a rigged elections could explode. So, first of all, what's wrong with what Cavanaugh said and how potentially dangerous is it
I think, it's important to approach this careful
because there are, as there are, the short term implications. A longterm repetitions
We focused too much on the short term applications. We end up doing trumps, dirty work to dissuade people from body to make him think their vote does not
right of course cabinet. Has this view? He
was one of the litigants in Bush, the Gore
although is run claimed the Biden adviser informative
and our friend pointed out in Florida in two thousand
Bright cabin, all among the Bush lawyers argued vociferously for male ballots that were sent by military members serving overseas, be count if they arrive F Election day to count like where he took it here.
A different position, units meeting it is weird. This is like a like. The coincidences here are to fathom by
it is our job. This is what I mean by pure party hack, yes, you're party. How do you mean because
Calvin all believed when he wore for can star there president's could be sued in investigated.
Then, when Bush was presently, he had a different view and
When Obama came, he switch back and then I'm gonna Rob hack a robe. That's what he is. This
is the distillation of republican strategy right
reason that Mcconnell, in particular, with the help of trial,
and millions of dollars in dark money from corporate in republican interests have gone into packing, though sprinkle with republican hacks is.
The Supreme Court has Republican Break glass plan for minority, will read vacant
put inverse freshening but ensuring manner. But if we win elections we can undo those thinks the core,
is the one that is insulated as it currently stands from.
Our agency to change things through, but through normal electoral politics. Of course they
that because Democrat
are have potential. Do we can we?
We can win governor ships in Port State Supreme Court Justices or in states where there are elections liking. North Carolina elect them
because there are more of us than there are them, but the waiter
meant that a way to always happy to put your thumb on this scale. For Republicans, despite the fact robins represent fewer voters, is due Supreme Court can so they're gonna adjust.
their views to make that more likely and easier to do.
Important, I mean Break Haven in this- concur in opinion reveals once again that he is a right wing, partisan hack. He also reveals that he's not super bright, nor are his clerks, like they're all pretty stupid.
because there's a bunch of mistakes in the ruling just factual inaccuracies that any reporter would have to correct any
politician will be held to account for or at least called out about if they made them. He said that a lot of states want to
All the election that night, which is not how it works at all, the media, calls the election or the media makes a projection states, don't actually certify results for days or weeks later, because states always wait for absentee belts to come in overseas. Ballots provision
no ballots. So just you, just the basic knowledge of an election would lead you to not say,
that states want to call the election on election night. That's not what happens. He said that Vermont, never
change their rules to allow voters to mail in ballots when they did. That's not true at all. From
actually sent every one about the chief cause of covert just skipped over that could have. Could a Google that one put it in a fuckin Supreme Court opinion? I mean there's a lot of alarm over this opinion because from a lot of like legal observers, liberal legal observers on twitter and another play
is that you know this is Brett Cavanaugh and soon Amy Coney bear it, setting things up for Donald Trump to steal the selection, because, basically, what they'll say
you know, there's a lot of theories about how they might do this, but it don't trumps has an election eight that he doesn't want balanced account that are
that come in after election day or even balance. The Duke comment on election day, but our counted till the day after election day that suddenly the Supreme Court's going to step in and agree with them like. What do you think about all this concern? The whole supreme court?
factory of the last few days has a specific purpose, which is to convince people that their vote does not count.
Right, that that is what they want. They want you to think they can still be election. Donald
I cannot see how this election we decide
what happens here. Rye bread, Cavenaugh, doesn't decide on trumped assignments, recognizance I'd. There are more p.
in the country and of the battle runs its, you want Joe Biden to be present at the Donald Trump.
And if they turn out and if they are
Their male ballots in in person
drop them off. They do what they are supposed to do here, then the supreme.
We'll play no role here. The only way the Supreme Court
gets to steal. The election is, if we let them down,
We have agency here we have power here. Donald Trump does not, and I think
We know you mentioned that Whistler as well, that we will be talking about this, but like what trump and break.
Haven't I want to do. Is they want to intimidate strike?
should use this to motivate us
You know when the resolve of the furore around the ringing of the of the postal service,
what that actually went to was a huge number of Americans requesting their male ballot early and we use
it was the leverage by Democrats, this podcast other.
to raise awareness about voting
should do the same thing here: right wasted
use this to fire people up to you.
The news coverage of this to inform them about more explicit. Do we can't worry?
about where the Supreme Court's conceal the election, because they won't matter if we vote, we dont folk things can be different, but that
up to us as algebra capital. It's also what we said many times control what you can control and I dont
be pollyanna here or naive, like I don't put literally anything past Donald Trump, the Supreme Court, but when we're
alarmist about it when we're telling it. When we're saying, were things like the Supreme Court's going to steal the election, we have to ask ourselves. What is the goal of saying that? Are we going to change? Are we going to shame Brett Cavanaugh into doing the right thing? No or not we're going to Shame Donald Trump into doing the right thing? No, we're not gonna do that. What can we actually accomplish by that now? Should we make people aware of what's happening? Absolutely sure we let people know what Brett Cabinet is trying to say in this footnote. Yes, for sure, but, like you said, there is a danger in telling people that this thing could just get stolen, like my my little cousin texted me that night on Monday night- and he goes- you know what this this is horrible. The Supreme Court's gonna steal this wire even bother and like that is the kind of that message cannot get out to voters from us that the Supreme Court could do this, because there are a lot of people who pay a lot less attention to the news, and we do and if they casually here, that the Supreme Court, my still the election, they might just stay home
and, like I'm, is worried about the election as anyone, but I do think in this final week. Like you note stays, Abrams says: I'm not pessimistic or optimistic. I determined like we have to show a little determination and not be so cowed all the time. Even if we're like
personally nervous like we have to show some determination, and I also think like I'm, not optimistic or pessimistic, because optimism is guessing what might happen right? I am hopeful because hope is about believing that you can make something happen, and I do think that, like we need to be hopeful in these last five or six days, an end like because that getting people to believe that we can do this, like you said, if we turn out, if enough people turn out, the Supreme Court will not have a say in this. Donald Trump will not have a say in this if we be,
by five or six points in Pennsylvania. It won't matter if you know that we won't get to the point where there is sort of late arriving ballots in litigation all this kind of stuff. You know they'll Donald Trump, threatened litigation, elder bullshit, of course I'll, say crazy things on twitter, but if the margin is big enough will win, and I think we have to go into you see Donald Trump tweeting in these last couple days like a tool,
again up forty five and was counts in the red wave is building right leg. He knows all that's bullshit melick! We shouldn't be lying about how good we feel, but we should be confident and hopeful, and these final days that doesn't mean cocky. That doesn't mean
knowing that we're gonna win, but we should feel hopeful about the amount of people voting and what that can do to the final results. I may wheat. The reason like we do
Why you said we'd like we're not saying that job, I'm gonna win, but it is.
Joe Biden, is winning. He is what
right now and we have to just keep doing what we are doing: keep working our asses off for the next
six days and he will be presented. States, commerce. We vice president, the Democrats
Take the Senate
and then we can certainly in the very hard work
fixing our democracy and undoing all of this shit, the trumpet somebody
right. There in the thing is like we tree so
like trumpets just magical straw man, he is a fucking Yahoo.
right? Yes, he wanted you thousand and sixteen we haven't you.
them from getting rid of the sba into. Doesn't seventeen we being thousand eighteen? We wonder why should those in writing and we are winning right now? We just have to finish doing that
we take nothing for granted, but we can do it.
It doesn't mean you can't win, but it does mean that we should be confident. We should be hopeful heading in these last couple days. That's
should be and determines positive.
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crooked. The final instalment speaking APOLLO, the final instalment of the crooked media
change. Research. Polar goes to series is here in national pole of one thousand one hundred twenty five voters taken on a tumor twenty third and twenty fourth. So Friday and Saturday of last week, because you're all just as obsessed with the horse races,
as we are. Joe Biden leads Donald from fifty one to forty three and eight point my
That's right in line with the current national polling averages. A few highlights from the horse race, fifty seven percent and our pulsar. They already voted at two percent plan to support third party candidates in
Two percent are still undecided very low undecided numbered this point by gets five percent of twenty sixteen trump voters. He is a
thirteen point margin among twenty sixteen third party voters and a whopping twenty five point margin among people who did not vote in twenty. Sixteen anything else, interesting to you
the horse re section. I don't care about the rigorous great
then that's it we're moving. Not so
the main reason. The main reason we conducted this Paul was to find out what, in the news, is actually breaking through two different kinds of voters and what effect this might have on the re. So what do we mean by that
we all spend a lot of time, analyzing the messages that politicians in campaigns and adds delivered a voters. We don't spend nearly,
enough time analyzing what actually gets through the media filter to the eyes and ears of voters? So we asked
What stories have you heard about over the last week where you hearing them from and how does it make you feel about each of the candidates
any other reasons I missed about why we thought this was a good idea who,
out the entire pull across? We have tried to make these poles, as in our partnership, a change research.
Look a little bit more like campaign poles than media right, like yeah,
we are curious, even though I presented, I, I didn't care
I ain't. We are curious, whether Donald Trump Card, Joe Biden, is winning right now, like that. That's interesting information
were more focus on the instructive information?
it's what we ve tested, somebody messages to give advice to are listeners about like what what works, when there too
Came to the underside of voters in their lives or the people are deciding she Donald Trump and your binder twin voting enough
This poor we wanted, but in a very specific question that we were always fascinated about in pulling the Obama
We always asked what have you heard about?
lama. Recently it was a positive or negative in big,
as that was actually more interesting, mostly time than than Obama's upriver rating for the force race, because
the quivering horse. Races, like a snapshot of time right now, the what if you
My question is a
leading indicator of where things are going in that
our question is never more important than it.
final structure for campaign, because it tells you whether you are closing with momentum or on the defensive, unlike whenever I think about you. Doesn't sixteen and all these things we missed, like
how absurd it doesnt. Twelve. We are obsessed with that positive negative question for Obama in Romney at the end.
Obviously, in hindsight
commies idiocy, run emails ensure that voters were hearing
firstly, negative information. What Hillary Clinton are making
and when you look at the exit polls, internet
voters and was causa, who decided in the last week Donald Trump.
those voters by twenty nine points he want
I think seventeen boards in Pennsylvania, right so
from this pole, there is good news for buying.
That from but that's what we wanted to see it, because I think it tells us about where the races going, not where it is right at this moment, which will not be relevant one moment from now.
so what so? What do we find? That was most interesting to you. I know you read about this Paul in this morning's message box. I do
I read about it the message box this morning, you six since its message box that subject come
very close to our donation,
its goal for drivers, not if we are so close to six days ago and abortion updates inscriptions are going to that very important organisation.
But the most interesting things to me are bind is winning the message: war, people,
overwhelmingly hearing more powers
information about Biden than Tromp tribute, hearing, overwhelmingly negative information, not only twenty four.
people said they were hearing mostly positive, rational. Let me
did the majority of supporters are hearing negative information
other thing, is that it so we asked people got a whole bunch of stories, political stories, international stories for the world, those out. They are pop culture event sports to see what people think initiative and people are dialed into the news like never before.
On nine and ten are following very closely or some are closely to
following very closely more by
supporters of Oliver closely? But what is interesting is the first stories that more than eight and ten respondents are paying a lotta decent intention to include Supreme Court. The debate
The record early turn out and the news by can cover cases
every single one of those it made
people feel more negative about trump than by an
Supreme Court, is an interesting one too, because the Republicans clearly thought that was going to help them.
that is correct. Forty percent of voters who said
the stories of us all about the spring for coverage. Forbearance made them feel more negative, our trunks, and only twenty five percent for benzene as a huge one,
obvious way, and unsurprisingly
bacon, covert cases where fifty percent of all voters go more negative, our trump, including forty, four percent of that small sliver of undecided and third party voters, its
like the short version. This is, as voters are, paying a ton of attention.
and the issues they are paying the most attention to make them feel worse about, so that is not good news for doing so,
talk a little bit about you know? One of the big findings from this pole is that Trump voters, and particularly trump voters, who get most of their news from Fox NEWS, which is, I think, over. Sixty percent of his voters basically live in their own information universe, which we basically already knew, but I,
Think these findings really put a fine point on. So your correct, sixty two percent trump photo say they get most of their news for facts. We give people a model
choice, menu of a whole different options to list where they got most of it
from a sixty two percent of trumpeters chose Fox
and so what we did in this pause, we compared the report.
What gives you are fox watchers with Republicans or not fox watchers and
in this. This makes some measure of intuitive sandspit.
The Fox waters are much more engaged in the news, the Non Fox, what your seven
Ex presented them report found in whose very closely only forty three percent of not fox hunting, Republicans report. The same way.
So if you watch cable, you are in
Currently a news junkie, right, liking,
have. You would have to be to suffer through their rights
and, throughout the vast majority, the issues more
the fox washers reported hearing a lot or a decent amount about this.
in cork information via fourteen points, the
debate by ten points, etc. This other more doubted the news.
on every story or the Fox watchers, more dialogue and except
The stories are about about tromp the Non Fox watchers. You do not pay close attention. The news
new more of them knew about trumps. Chinese bank account him Jenny, walk them up about Governor Whittemore and about from calling fancy a disaster than the Fox Watch so that take away from this, as we knew Fox, was bad, but this is the,
We clearly shows
how bad foxes, how much of a propaganda network it is because they are very clearly hiding
bad information about trumped from their viewers and can
Firstly, the Fox Waters, the who are trump voter
Were the ones who heard the most about Hunter binding in the laptop story
that's right, more aid per cent of them. Ninety one percent of the verses like I think it was like. Seventy something per cent of the on Fox Republicans, had heard about the hunter story. Now, of course, a lot of Democrats had heard about the Hunter story
two, but not nearly as many as had heard about where, following
the real news stories shaping the election of, but it is interesting as we asked you know, we sort of like what are the biggest issues in the election and, of course, covert, wins trumps handling of covert fifty one percent shows as the biggest story of this election- and you know that's true across like most voters. Would you get a trump voters, so it's not like their voting for trump because they think he handled co
perfectly because even among Trump voters, like he's, only got like a seventy percent approval rating on covert, even though, like a hundred percent of them are voting for Donald Trump right. It's that
those voters think that the main issue in the election is either Hunter Biden
riding and looting in this in cities or the supposed radicalization of the Democratic Party right Joe Biden in an anti for warrior. That's what they think they're in a universe where they see the biggest problem facing America as those issues Hunter binds laptop over cove it. That is what that is what Fox NEWS does to pay
balls brains mean it is a like. The pull really just reveal the.
Massive right wing media.
Radice and what it really means advantages. Imagine if you had a completely partisan outward there was committed.
From top to bottom to re, electing the president of the United States and that outlet
Is that a major source of news for six and ten of their voters right where you can,
give them good news. You can hide bad news. You can push out this information about the opponent. Get is a massive,
massive apparatus, inability to set the four corners of the compositions country. The problem is
for them, this time is
cove. It is such an overwhelmingly
all consuming issue that they can choose.
the subject in a way they couldn't normal action in so it
very possible and maybe even probable, the job. I win this election, despite that rightly
media apparatus by
like in the long run. This is a thing that we have progressive have to figure out, because in a in aid
different worlds. If Joe Biden becomes president can get covered under control,
the ability of Republicans to set the
the issue which ended american politics, is going to give them an advantage.
Every single fight to come for as far as the agency, and they were in one of the reasons it gives them an advantage is because, despite some in the media and some pundit saying oh Democrats and Republicans each live in their own media bubbles. It's not really true, and this polish shows that it's not true, Republicans Trump supporting Republicans are living in their own media bubble. They're getting a vast majority of them are getting their news from Fox, and that's it. Democrats, independence third party. Voters
on affiliated. Voters are getting their news from a whole bunch of different sources, and we know about the Hunter Bide laptop story right. It has reached us, we run
a partisan podcast we are trying to get Democrats elected. We have talked about that story, Mosebach gas. We do not hide
We do not hide bad stories from our listeners, and neither does the media- and I think, like look
you ve been a new this in twenty, sixteen that when he wanted to drop hills,
email stories, Hilary corruption stories, whatever it was, he didn't want to just do it on bright bark. He wanted to do it. You wanted to place a story in the New York Times, because he knew that the New York Times still had widespread credibility and that what the right knows is if the bacon seed, some of their conspiracy theories with mainstream media organisations, that it can actually set the agenda and affect voters and this time Trump and his goons couldn't do
It is well like you said, because of covert, but in the future, when there is not a pandemic, they may be able to do that unless there is a countervailing force. On the other side, that's you
and the like Ben Smith and irritation,
com. This had a
very smart com about this. Over the weekend working,
The differences between how the mainstream media has responded to republican disinformation and twenty twenty five escapade between sixteen
but what that column, which is very smart, does not take into account, and so they did needs.
much more exploration in investment on the progressive side is the role that Facebook place
I find Biden Trump voters by basically equal numbers,
say they get? Most of us were Facebook. Facebook is,
overwhelmingly pushing right wing content. If you get Thee
email. The cabin was in your time sends out every day with the earth are. If you get the Kevin reason they are times tat. Columnists has put together a twitter account that every day it's about account that puts out the ten link posts,
Facebook with the most engagement- and it is a fucking disturbing of stupidity. I think today, as were frozen Dan Bungee, no was like eight of the ten top posts. Inspection
but you know it's a bunch of shit and that's a huge problem which,
is that's where, like the mainstream media can
rob levies, but Facebook has the floor.
goes over them, can knock them right down. It just happens within this election, the
The number one issue is of such great consequences. So many people that a bunch of that
of misinformation marginal. Your bullshit does not matter in the way way way
in two thousand sixteen and the way could very well matter, and it didn't write. You midterms that you're just twenty four election like there is
huge giant raging siren in India.
these numbers for what progress have to do to fix this?
asymmetry in our ability to get our message out on hardships, yeah, and I would encourage everyone to read your message box today where you talk
the more about that, and maybe because it because I think I could, because I compliment you Tommy and love it by name for your, your creativity and courageous.
concerning Turkey media I did. I did appreciate that, of course, for train our best. Like I always say, more cricket media's, you give us some competition.
whole progressive ecosystem, a sake. I say one more thing about this. That is so important,
before the both sides
will come after us,
No, we do not want a Fox news on our side. That is not what we want. I think
I can't, I think it is. I don't think it is politically useful,
anyway to have a five or even possible, be like Fox NEWS rest, but like what we want.
progressive media ecosystem that isn't that does not deal legitimize or tries to replace the traditional media we wanted to come.
The men? If we wanted to push back when we think the mainstream media is regurgitate Rebecca, talking points or do some elsewhere, but the devil,
Our voters have always had a very wide ranging media diet, and we just want to increase. One
it is a different approach than what the Republicans are doing so take your boss, it's bullshit and take it somewhere else. Also they use you know, look vague
traffic in fear and anger and misinformation on their site, that's how they handle their voters and their audiences right as have engage them with fear and anger and misinformation. What we try to do is doing.
People with you. No real information, not misinformation. We try to have a little fun. We try to inspire people to go, do something to acts to be involved to decent, then about the world around you so like we just we taken entirely different approach and I do think writ large. That's what progressive need to do. We should not copy Fox NEWS, but we need sort of a kind.
prevailing force. Ok, we have some time for audience, questions questions
Kate Johannsen asks. Is there a point at which
texting and phone banking becomes ineffective. I've been volunteering every weakens in September, and this last weekend with brutal way, more opt outs and hostile voters way fewer constructive conversations
therefore becomes less productive on Wednesday in just so. You know, Kate, because
if so few undecided. Voters right now, because so many p
we have already voted right now, the universe of people that work.
acting informed banking, just your
Gonna get a lot more people who are either going to be.
hostile or going to be, like I already voted or stop talking to me like we're getting down to a smaller pool here. But
time, volunteers this! When I've been talking to phone banks, you call a hundred people, architects, a hundred people, you get like
two or three voters. Out of that, that's huge that is huge for campaign, because if we have thousands of volunteers and
One gets just a couple people in a shift
really adds up. That's like the margin in the state, so I got there
One thing you should know, as I do not get discouraged in these final days,
if you're getting a lot of opt outs, hostile, there's other kind of stuff, it is because we are getting down to the
undecided. Don't usually pay attention to politics, don't usually vote pool of voters, attitude,
and asks what should folks do an election day night watch coverage volunteer more doom scroll. We kind of talked about this on Mondays POD, but in what do you think? What's here? What's your advice
I'll be there. If we were living in a non covert worlds, people would be there be massive amounts of people out doing
your tv driving people to the poles, making us phone calls docking doors and early. You can pull out that last remember. So there is gonna, be volunteer, work to do
until the moment. The poles clothes on the West Coast, nonsense and so election day is miserable
they're, like do anything you can to feel productive.
like its work is. Twitter can be filled with a bunch of unsurpassed out of context anecdotes about why,
This places are, I saw
three trump flags on the waiting a coffee this morning, all my get like it's, it's, not productive
followed either. If you can volunteer, that's all you can do on election day, because you voted weeks ago
because you early voted are transported by me a long time ago, then
here. I think it make you feel better. There is no upside in being on Twitter
We will get no valuable information really ever frankly, but particularly on election day.
And it's gonna be important to get our voters out on election day because you know the waves. Looking now is that we ve banks most of our votes. Early and republicans- will have this big election day turn out
We still have you no twenty
thirty to forty percent of our voters are saying they want to vote on election day and if you,
all the data analysts on campaigns, look and see that, where down
here. We need more turn out here. More turner among this group like we're, going to need to really move on election day and trying to get people out of their houses and lines and go up, and so we need a lot of people to help with that. So it's really important that election day, Emily
asks in Jacksonville we flipped blue
in twenty eighteen, I keep hearing. If we flip again, Biden will win Florida. Is that true, if by gets Florida, is it over if by
gets Florida is basically over. I feel pretty confident saying
well. John, the, although younger many sub
you probably words sitting in cork
headquarters when than ours called it fur
Korea elements celebrating gigantic. I'm talking about a real when I've got going called we're. Not a Florida. Two thousand will tell you about. The electoral votes are in his column, enforced
include family, have just ass. You that question directly related to those we eventually be a twitter, so maybe it will lose. My vote. No!
I think that I think made silver is
five thirty eight they have like. If Biden wins Florida, it's ninety nine percent chance he wins and
If he doesn't want Florida he's
and when he still has paths but a winning Florida would be much better now
Single specifically, I'm not sure about what would you think of it? Yeah Emmi, devolve county is addicts when kind, Steve Shale, our friend two's ran far differ a bomb a couple times and is the,
the export in foreign politics points that out a lot, so very it
That is why there is a big chunk of democratic votes that you can go get in the city Jacksonville, which is indeed our county. I hope I got that right by
Florida is the state to watch, because it's the one we are giving it the most information about the electorate. First,
They count their mail about in advance. They dump them in when the Poles close in many cases, we'll get a chance to see what is happening there and whether it means when fought or not, but as a chance to see whether some of the assumptions we may about the election hold true right Florida man always
Pat deeds asks how in
in a provisional ballots, counted and generally
it's very are some tossed in texts have been told
if you get a male and ballot but decide to vote in person your ballot
provisional unless you bring the original male ballots, appalling location. This is just one example from our friends experience. I'm worried
provisional difference by state in the Bay
thing. Think here is good about the american com and find out the rules for your state, like
We talk to ETA governed John Fellowmen Pennsylvania. A few weeks ago. I
The question is this: latter concerns about mailbox.
Pennsylvania and he said trust. The postal service
Put your ballot in, send it in early or drop. It often person
but in Pennsylvania. If you requested availability,
Having two point: six million jobs have been requested, but then you go
person. You have to bring your mail.
With you, including every piece of including all the various envelopes, and if you don't you end of filling a provisional ballot which, if it gets counted, we'll get counted much later in the process, so
The rules are different everywhere check. The rules followed,
girls, gotta, furtive American, Emily claw
asks. Can we were votes? Have America March to the Poles fuck you,
You can, please do, I hope, that's true.
Madam, I hope I didn't just tell people to break the law. I think you can wear motive american fitzooth. If there are rules and wonder, there's electioneering laws, so you can't you can't be telling people to vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump too close to the poles, but
Save America. There that's himself a measure, voting rights when I have the wrong what's wrong. With that
you- and I are liars, but we
do follow out of lawyers on twitter, and so I feel confident italian me another the legal minds that ice quickly scroll through they say fine. They say tat figure from
when we come back my interview with targets,
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Party America is Roger by Amazon. What the constitution means to me are United Constitution just had a bridge,
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I am now joined by Tom Bonnier. A democratic political strategies in ceo of the analytics firm targets Mart thanks for coming on the bottom extremism. So
on Monday is POD save America. We told people not to read too much,
into the early vote data, especially when it comes to predict the outcome,
you guys have been analyzing early vote data for a few cycles. Now, can you talk about what
Early vote can tell us
How your analysis goes beyond just the raw vote totals that are just broken down by party registration that we see out there
yeah absolutely like him in a way it, it's almost easier to say what it can't tell Us- and this is the lesson learned from twenty sixteen, that alone, a hundred per cent
if you tell us who's, gonna, win.
You know we got pretty excited and twenty sixteen about the relevant overall shine. What looked like good numbers should gonna rats and then obviously and live now.
lesson learned. Was there a lot of regular voters who were feeling that democratic advantage
early in the end, the real
one thing was these infrequent voters? First, I bought a sporadic voters and sell your lesson learned we applied that
but where the here and now we got twenty eighteen to, and it actually works pretty well in predicting
blue, where society, so that's really
We are focusing on it s not forget you,
almost seventy five million people voted already rise, crazy.
and if you can't learn something from seventy five million people living there
you know, you probably got an event right. Things would again
You know I didn't actually sixteenth all right. Well, can you just talk about for people who, like don't know what targets more
does like when you analyze the data you you do so
then called modeling right, and so it's not just you're. Not just looking at, like you know, forty percent
Democrats voted and thirty percent Republicans in a bunch of independence in battle. We know so far
you're, doing something a little bit more than that. Can you serve explain what you do for people? Yes,
we build a nest.
a wonderful so file.
evolved to Andrew ten million or so registered. Voters in that country- and
we may do a lot of information on how to get creepy about
but we have like some basic information on on there
voting behaviour among the most important which elections do they show up for an impasse which are they not fall in our recently? Did they registered about? Are the registered as a democratic Europe? Are the order of the younger? We look at race, ethnicity, things like tat, so it's that she attached Jewel data. It gives us a lot
of of doubt information about who is voting and why is it meaning for it? Is this like someone, who's going
impact the electorate and away that's gonna make it look different than it didn't twenty sixty
or is there someone? We expect it to turn out any. So
You talk a little bit about what
twenty six and twenty eighteen like what? What sort of change?
twenty sixteen and twenty eighteen and how you analyze the early vote. Data and
and how did that actually match up with what happened? I guess in twenty eighteen so that the big
change was focusing on how the electorate will change from the base expectation right. So there, sir!
voters who you know reliably are going to come out in a certain way
We have models, but mostly you just look at the elections. They boy. If you ve, got one presidential election target
the vote on the next winter certainly likely to vote in the mid term elections by twenty eighteen.
go to hear a new registrant and you will or you're someone who's been registered about. Maybe you came out in twenty twelve and you came out two thousand and eighteen the Obama elections, but then you stayed home since then, then you come out in twenty eighteen
Elsa, something about the tracks in and we can
get down at a macro level and say what are younger voters performing at a higher level, which was something you did seem twenty eighty retorted.
in the early vote data younger
he's working on a larger share of the earlier vote and they had in prior elections as well as our first cloaking. Younger brothers are pretty engaged here. We
They're gonna, be a larger share of the electorate and from appalling. We have a pretty good sense that those are motors. We're gonna go to the one plus democratic, so that
the first sign that, while look there's something happening here that could be this blue wave
and so what are some of the most important trends you're seeing in the data right now.
The number one that I'm looking at is just how many people have voted already, who didn't vote in twenty sixty because
if we assume looked the twenty, sixteen electorate is the one that now jumped to the White House electrons.
I'm not popular! Nobody saw
it s house out, electric gonna change are their different. People are gonna, show up who stayed home. You know. A lot of american state only note was a relatively high turnout election tens of millions american imports of the question is: are
participate right now in the early. When I talk about over, don't just
Seventy five million Americans, having only it already.
More than one in four of those early voters didn't vote. Two sixty.
It is certain that the latin you're getting longer were approaching. Twenty million new voters have already.
About now, the Trump campaign
has said from the very beginning that their hope is to turn out a bunch of people who didn't vote and twenty sixteen
particularly non college white voters that maybe trump
type voters live in the same areas as some other trump voters, and they hope that some
These new voters are their voters. What do we know about sort of way
there's a bunch of new voters. But what do we know about the breakdown between Democratic republic? So the thing
ass for now
across the board right. It's not that republic understand home at this point. There are some very because the present in all their eyes, they should have fallen by now and voting really so severely. That Republicans would just be staying home
and that is the other coming out there, just not coming anywhere near to the intensity levels. At democrats have so far
and so what we're seeing when we break them down. Obviously we're looking that you don't have an american turn out, seeing that that is surging. You look at some cheese steaks like Georgia and Texas.
Especially african american seniors? This was a group actually staying home in twenty sixteen to Europe,
most than voted that there's a larger than the timber and taxes and Georgia, more african american seniors have already casting doubt in voted entirely in those states and twenty sixty useless
if they so wish.
see things and in the data to that extent, their point of others are engaged in is reasonable. Does in the more of them, are gonna come on election day right now they just
naturally, that level of engagement that receive a Democrat,
so new voters and then sporadic voters which, as you mentioned, are voters who are registered but have set out a few elections. Do you think the Democrats have an advantage with both sets of voters in battle
on states right now from everything were seen Democrats at a pretty significant advantage to the point where, if these,
France continue over the next six days.
The Republicans are looking at a deficit in these battleground states
literally millions of votes that they'll have to turn out on election day in order to climb out of it. And of course, we
Let people know just so. You get too excited
it's possible that, on election day, Republicans could turn out not only their regular voters but a bunch of new voters and sporadic voters that they had been hoping to turn out that just didn't vote earlier by male right? Absolutely.
Our problems are told me that they said that election
he's gonna look like a Magyar. I
They believe that they're coming out in such huge numbers are legit, there's no reasonably that they walk about. Huge numbers need know their engaged. I think the biggest challenge they asked is
we know that making voting more accessible and more available increases turn you ve seen the states that have gone to go by me on past elections. Cholera, Utah, California, and about the matters Democrats have built up as the image and turn out over
so for five weeks. So when you shocked about,
and you see a line that eight hours long, you can come back the next day or even
the problem with your job, your child care, even back the next to her the next day, revolt
you're, putting all their eggs in the basque enough. That's all
on this one day and if something goes wrong, there's not at that
I think that's the biggest challenge for them.
What are you? What are you saying from young voters, this camera
so young borders are turning out, obviously in larger numbers overall, but you know again, we pass thoroughly vote number from twenty sixteen about a week ago and we're not thirty million votes past it so Enron, numbers, obviously to turn our numbers, but even in the share of the electorate. I think that's the most interesting thing is day or account.
for a larger share of the early about now than they did it the same point in time in twenty sixteen,
XO. Certainly, at first in Cardiff and younger voters do tend to go a little bit later in all their voters, basically the way their early but usually goes. It starts older and wider and then a gradual.
Gets younger and more diverse, and we definitely seen that we're just in the last four or five days they you thought is really beginning to pick up and
two groups of voters the Democrats have had some concerns about just from the polling, are sort of young black voter
young latino voters, and specifically young black and latino men.
seeing any trends with those groups of voters,
early vote data, so
as you know, especially away with her black men had twenty, sixteen are a number of them just involve that. I think a group that chopped off more than any groups my sittings by one of the biggest deficiencies with that we began this
the encouraging signs among the younger black and latino voters. I think there's still a ways to go, see those numbers get to exactly where they need to be
over the last several days. Those numbers have become so you
in that will have a rough sense by next Tuesday, of just how deep of a whole Trumbull have to dig.
Self out of an election day will be able to place that, in the context of the remaining non voting electorate, what data
gonna be looking out as results come in to see if Trump has been able to dig himself out of that whole, I didn't
the big sort of,
to state the obvious, like the coalition, for him is Non College, educated, wife, voters, pneumonia,
Look at these numbers nationally gamble. Look look at state by state. Israel encapsulates it to me.
you can bear the number of college educated white voters are group that are doing much better for Vice President Biden, and you can
and out of the total number of the voluntary, sixteen were right now about. Fifteen million votes behind, which sounds like a lot of really isn't when you think of the trajectory of thoroughly about an election gave up
not cause, why voters are about forty five million votes behind so
thirty Nellie about gap which is significant. So that's a number
it will be looking out, it's just that turn out in those areas and some of those counties we think about the Florida Panhandle. Some of them
the world wide or areas of Georgia, some of these states that could be decisive and also count really. Those are the ones that wording be watch. Our action.
The other thing that I've been trying to figure out. Looking at all this data is so you see in the early vote numbers. You know. Democrats have a red party registration advantage in a lot of these states over Republicans, but then, when you look at poles
of people who say they ve already voted, binds advantage over Trump is much larger than the party registration advantage, that you're seeing commodities states and to me
that says that you know it from its. What we see in the polling, all along, which is binds doing better
independence, that Hillary Clinton and not affiliated voters and he's all
pulling more republicans from Tromp than Hilary Day
Are you saying that, in the data that your modelling and early, but so that's the real,
we're gonna get. What we see is whether or not people voted on how we evaluate sounds like an obvious. Gotta bet you'd be surprised. We talk about these things that people will die of. You know how we vote. We don't know that.
we can look at the general partisanship. What's your point,
Dont see this means, we don't know enough is: is binding, whinnying sixty percent
independent, sorely splitting is losing them
shut up and listen to me, I mean garrisons among the ended up who their independence, our who were voting, and do they look more like our voters. We Diana sense. Oh yeah, that's that's the Big
question four legs united. How are these groups when I will say the reason I feel more comfortable with the analysis of what looking at now, I feel more optimistic about next Tuesday. He is
ass, he sat upon, has shown that the vice president is doing better than we have in the past with the lobby groups on ITALY, those independent boaters. Why college etiquette
There is now even white. Non college educated voter seniors
I mean you search. I talked about with a decent these new one for voters dimpled. Sixteen a lot of them are over the age of sixty five
You don't think about turn out targets, but there's almost five million voters old age, sixty five and eleven. Sixteen who voted
already in this election, and so you know there's reasonably
don't let him those waters to write.
Any other outstanding questions that you're really eager to understand, as the as the vote continues to come in
You know that the big question is republic have been talking about. We ve been registering more voters and there's no some evidence during the pin during the least early days, the pandemic. We know that communities of color locker
and other areas, and we saw that the registration data, so I'm interested to see how these
republican registrants. What right they're coming out- and we know that traditionally registering you up at a higher rate and religious. Looking at that Republican turn out a raw and you'll have a better picture of that
probably as we get like Tuesday morning, you'll, probably know more about what's left in the electorate for than we do right now, right,
that's right, we'll start over the weekend and then will dig into that coming into two stages to look up what's left and just how play
Above all, we want the other projector raised, even in the middle of day to day whereby- and I'm not gonna make that mistake again any out. I decided I less prognostication. None of us are no analysis right, yeah
What will get a sense of how the hell is that that rebellions laughed, the kind that is clear, it is gonna, be all that they're gonna, be fine, and on watching that everything is put out an historical context inside
you know how many nonviolence new voters new registrants will they need to get out in order to get there and will see out, however,
It is the only at the only good news we can save confidences people. Are
and a lot of Democrats about in La Democrats are excited right. Most, you think you can say I write
Tom! You! Thank you! So much for joining pod, save America and good luck to you in the last couple. This very
Thanks a time for joining us today will be recording one more episode, all four of us on Friday at our last preelection episode and we'll talk to them by everyone,
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Transcript generated on 2020-10-29.