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#ICYMI - Moneyball 2.0 – Soccer Edition

2018-12-06 | 🔗

In case you missed this episode on the Playing with Science channel… Hosts Gary O’Reilly and Chuck Nice enter the world of big-data analytics and its rising influence on the game of soccer on the world stage alongside Dan Altman from North Yard Analytics and Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics.

Image Credit: Soccermetrics, with data by DataFactory LA.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Skip. The commercials support star talk on patriarch to listen to every episode, Commercial free. I am the other aspects of your personal astrophysicist. The startup network is pleased to present to you, a U show where the universe in sports and now Europe's am supplies I like, and We are the play. With science.
I'm very right- and this is playing with science today- is a show about Football Osaka if you prefer a look, not through the eyes of a player or fan, but through the escaping waterfall of Zeros ones. That data analyse love to hide behind Yeahs soccer or for,
while in four as Ahmed considered money bald to point o a sport at the elite level. That's right for data dumb and seismic shift in the thinking on how all sport is viewed, conceived and enjoy yes and joining us to pull back the curtain and reveal all is one off. If not one of the world's leading s, both analytics Dan, the founder of North Yard, analytics a man whose opinion and thoughts are sort farm. Why, as and later, were so here from Doktor Howard Hamilton, the founder and c o of sucker metrics research, yes, begetter Stan Oatman Dan welcome to playing with science. I very much regret beer. Thank you, work less! So, as people listening know exactly why you're here sports analysed and professor of economics it, and why you stern school of business, the list goes on author of outrageous fortune.
The twelve surprising trains that will reshape the global economy. Fascinating, I think I might need that boy. We all need a factor of north got analytics, leading sports data consultancy so have I done you. Justice even mentioned things from my former life as an economist, Sir Northern Justice, and all right. So here we got this, take a little trip back down memory. Lane way, indeed, data analytics- and I use this pine intentionally kick in for football and who drove it. Do what you did. They think they're money well, some people would argue that it was Charles Rape actors World WAR who was standing the sidelines out in the cold, taking things down on an ad hoc really got things going, but I dont think that it had the same sort of traction than it did. Let's say in baseball two decades ago, with the emergence of Bill James and his acolytes It's really just been in the past decade. I would say that sports analytic,
as we know it in other sports, especially the United States has started to percolate into football in the great reaches of Europe and possibly even South America bodies, the typical kind of data I mean. We know we can all look at sea who won the game because of a number of go scored, but what is the typical type of data that is being used and who actually is capturing this So there are two major types of data. One is matched data that comes, the events that happen on the ball and you can get several companies that will provide you with a feed live or after the match. Up to I say, two thousand events that occurred, we pass every tackle every shock and I'll tell you a little bit about where it happened as well as when it. Happened in some specific of how it happened, but really just on the ball data show with that kind of data.
No, the narrative of the back, but you don't know what all twenty two players and referees and the ball we're doing at every moment. For that you need tracking data, which is writer by another set of companies quite often, and they will be tracking every moving object on the pitch. For let's say thirty frames per second generates a huge amount of data just for one man more perhaps for one man than you would give her whole season of the event data and the key is to try and build those things together. So You know what everybody is doing and you know the context as well wow. That sounds insane I mean. Do you know when you talk about that much data which, by the way, could only exist in this day and age? If you think about it, you need a huge amount of computing power to make that happen. But let me ask you this: how is it used? I mean, how can you, how can you even make heads
sales of that much data, and does it do anything for a player evaluation game strategy? What how is it use most commonly there? tunnel, things that you can do with this kind of data, and I would say that, even as the things we can do and implement within a soccer club are growing because there's grey understanding of these things among the cautious doubt the scouts etc. The amount of things we can do is growing even faster, so the gap between what, can implement and what we can do is actually widening, even as we get better at using the data, which is a weird thing, but we use most commonly the match data for something like scouting, because we can get that same type of man, Data from dozens of leaks around the world, the tracking data are much more difficult come by and their author according to different formats, indifferent, leagues, chauffeur sky,
If you want to look at everybody using the same benchmarks, all around the world player from Brazil or player from Croatia, you're really confined to using the match data Mr Tracking data you're. Much more often trying to examine your own players are your own teams performance, because you are collecting that data inside your own stadium, sometimes I appeal to get up other clubs in your league, but its tougher to get it further afield. So if, as we ve said, go scored the ultimate step in any data collection fur for a football game? What are the main areas? You find coaches players rather than the fans outside, and they want to exclude funds, because we there's no profession who foot or without fail. What are you find are the most important metrics that people are always focusing on. What is interesting because there's just a huge amount of diversity and what the coaches wanna hear with one club I was working with. I went from assisting coach is typically I'll, be working with this
encroach on a day to day basis, water manager, the head coach, is dealing with the players and assisting cold. She just wanted to see a plot of all the goals score. Let's say from corners from the whole league, and I didn't know really what that was meant to describe life is vital. We were going to do, but I mean you know: we're not playing the whole league every weekend, replaying specific club, but that's what you want to see and then the next guy who Kay because, as you know, in european football, the managers and coaches can change quite frequently. Have the next guy who came in and said. I want to see the expected goal: networks for every club that we're gonna play based on there, as ever more similar to us in playing style. Measured by these technical attributes, gotta be kidding me. That was a request, on a window is requisite only only on a wildly about. What's interesting meet the existing coach. You wanted all of the goals school directly from a corner. Kick here, my imagination, concise,
we defend the I'm nothing king. How do I set up to the gate, vulnerability from the broad spectrum of what I'd be looking to face? I would then be looking on a game by game. Ices at the opponent and how they set themselves up for set, plays and corner cakes, but just as an overarching, should I be going man to man. Should I be buying Zono, or should I hybrid to best solve the most things that I would be facing that just when you said that my little cobwebs eyed, the brain that there's a totally valid point, four to situate one is when you're trying to set up for the whole season your? How should you be training on a day to day basis, yeah? The second is for scouting. If I'm looking for a centre back, I want the kind of guy who's. Gonna be well placed well positioned to deal with those threats, but this particular coach wanted
that chart every week and you know you're only adding a couple goals to every week, so it would be pretty much the same. Every year, in which case I've got no thought to a for every waking day. How productive is this data? Evelyn? such when it comes to analyzing, individual players, and then you say right: this is our play. All this group of players are intended targets. How successful are they with identification and then be bringing them to say, I'm guessing a European League and then being success within the clubs that you ve worked with Well, I'll give you a prime example. I worked until recently with a disunited which is part of an ownership group that I was serving his head. A strategy for and we had a signing that made some news over the summer
you're gonna, wait running England's all time leading score came over after spending she's, not his original junk Lester. I saw everything I say another blue team everything before that. It was with Manchester United for many years, and you know it we were gonna spend huge amount of money for animal s team to bring him to the United States, and we were gonna just get one player. Rather than signing, let's say, a few young prospects for Latin America or something show it was. It was a risky proposition in some senses. And, of course we want to be able to predict how he was gonna perform in his newly well. One of the I worked on for many years is creating league adjustments so that we can look at a place performance in one week and trying predict how well heeled play an anomaly, and we look
he met a couple, different positions and as far as his attacking output, he was exactly where we thought he would be coming to MLS and that prediction was based on thousands of matches. Dozens of players who moved not just between mls and the Premier League, but also at one remove. You know a player who might have moved from. Let's say France, to the Premier league to him a less well then now you have a link from France all the way to Emma less right here so tat. We can make lots of connections to try and see how play my perform a big o from one day to another, and in this case it was spot arm and, as you saw, there was good reason to sign up
Well, if you're not familiar with the the Wayne Rooney story Chuck an hour, I won't give the whole born to now, just if you look at his time at Dc United and Emily S, a big fanfare, a major code for the club. So congratulations to diesel United for that they go into a brain. Stadium, Howdy Stadium in D C, and the question mark remains against Wayne. Rooney. Have you bore into him after the end? After all, the good stuff has gone, What I'm interested in is what metrics you used. If you can give any if your ip away all give us an understanding of what you would focus on that made. You believe this guy's still had enough left in the tank to get people off the seats and into the stadium So there are a lot of different statistics. They get bandied around these days in soccer, but I prefer them
I started out this way, probably because of my background is an economist. I preferred to create a holistic model of the game, so have one model of winning The two models that I use side by side and every action gets a value within that model and so weak to see if we combine all the actions that are players can contribute. How are they gonna stack up? What's their overall contribution to winning going to be an ant does x x? prices itself in a numeric value. Is that what happened? Yes, ok, go ahead, and then we are just that Merrick value based on league, where we think they're gonna play so Rooney in the primarily one of the toughest his in the world. If not, the toughest was gonna come to Emma
us which, as shown Harvey, who is the chief executive of the English Football League, said at a conference I attended two days ago is probably somewhere between the second and third tears in England. So he's not. Going from the first hearing onto the second based, maybe going from the bottom up to the bottom of the second or maybe the top of the third tier. It's quite a big job. Did you feel assessment was slowly harsh. Actually, mice statistics agree with it. I didn't think so, and I actually brings up an interesting pointed out. We could see that Rooney was gonna, be making this big job, and so even as a guy who looked passed, his prime, perhaps in the Premier League, he was going to kill him enamel less, but that that adjustment used to be smaller It used to be that Emma was closer to mid table championship, which is the second tier in England. You gotta ask yourself what Emma less has been getting better. Why is the gap queen Emma lessen the english leagues growing as because the English LISA
getting better faster yeah? I mean there's so much the temperature right now through the parachute payments from the Premier League and all these owners pouring money into their clubs to try and get to the primarily that the quality is just going to really down. I'm just gonna explain something for chalk so's. This gets quantified with sign in front of it. If you are relegated of so finishing the bottom. Three and then those this in the Premier league right and you get relegated into what is now the championship. Second, tier of english soccer formal you will, you will earn more money than the team that wins the wife of Champions League, while fact so you're in the bottom of your relic but you will about more television mummy than the winner of the Champions League. That's why this acceleration with english saga is so
quick LAO, I'm I'm, I'm I'm in the right place without giving too many numbers it. That is the principle behind this. Is that right, then yeah. You know the thing is that the permanent kids growing, mostly because foreign business, that they're doing that the price of the tv rights for the UK has sort of topped out, but the price of the foreign broadcast rates. Yeah they're they're here they're they're on Saturday morning. Here. That's for sure you say it. I mean it is a very valuable sporting property on the planet while without a doubt what I'm, what I'm interested and focus on wine Rooney, not because its Wayne Rooney, but how you quantify, because wine has something you can't to my mind and I'm up for being taken to school, for this one and learning? How do you quantify he's mental attitude towards the game of football? Great question
so the two models that I told you about already or what I call mechanistic models as they set their sign of value to every action that we can observe each action. We italian I do it? I have another model which I would call an agnostic model which is sort of like a plus minus in hockey or we have it. Plus minors in the NBA, where you're looking the overall contribution but you're not say how the athlete does. It know that their patron say of this in the NBA was a guy named shame barrier and there was a big by Michael Louis them in your time, areas. Why do I d baddies teams were even though it doesnt scoreboard appoint as yes. So why is that? I read an article but go ahead. I want you to say it's. Ok, you makes these intangible contravene he does things that we don't necessarily track in this mechanistic data right, and so I have a very complicated
nor based on something called a sharply value with comes from a Nobel laureate, Lloyd sharply in the sixties, and try to figure out this overall contribution, and we don't know how we do it. If you take that overall contribution as subtract mechanistic contribution, what's left are the intangibles and that's how we measure the images. Waiting, so you're able to assign a value to something that is intangible itself. You look at the hall and you take away the stuff. You can and what's left that fuckin fascinating did I care, but that is amazing. So what back in the day and its its way back right and we're gonna go to break up just before we do I'll throw this in. We did all of that by standing or sitting in a sea watching we didn't have numbers, we didn't have any laptops. We know that as a fact right, we're leaving.
Yeah because we are going to take a break and you're gonna have to hold out go out all right. Well, it's killing me. May not know the right. We're gonna take a break more from down open. Who are the honest with you? This is closely linked to noting out fabulous. I love it and would be back. Very, very short. Hey? I've got no secret for you, I'm gonna consider singing all of the ads on this shell there's just one and where to get out of hearing there go to patriarch arms last star talk and sub Where does at the five dollar level or higher, to listen? The star talk ad free, you can download all current episodes into your favorite podcast player and never
we're here another commercial on star talk ever again. You will definitely not have to hear me saying if you support us at Patria, dark coms. Last our talk, radio, I mean I'm just thinking I mean just saying welcome back to play with science. While we were away shocks had expired, we managed to bring back together again bits and pieces missing, look under the table, right. We are in the company of an old man who is just outrageously thoughtful on the game of football, hey I soccer and how you analyze it not as a coach but as
data. How you see things numerically, how you can quantify what is sometimes to people and quantify oh yes, and bring it to the table charter. I've we go again. I was losing my mind and I was like you have. What Dan has done is just brilliant. As you know, in what I call it is filling the negative space right, dad you're filling the method of space, and you know so what you said Jerry was we used to stand on the sidelines and basically you are making judgments so now. Here's what I want is so what You ve done is essentially is and here's what I'm gonna ask death as this is your models even have to be really honest here with judgments. There are always biases. Europe must be overcome when you damn build a model and not just you and talk in the collective you all of you analyse when you build a model. How do you not build in the biases too? That model?
so that the model itself is kind of mimicking the judgments that may be erroneous like what Gary was talking about yeah yeah. So there are Devices for a programmer whoever's designing a mathematician with me these Ignacio miles. We try to cut out this basis. Goosey, we don't actually say what's important. What's not we let the model tell us, ok, but an end. Machine learning is really involved in that all seem as well. But what I do is really complimentary to the guy standing on. The sidelines is not a substitute right and you are much more powerful when you, both of those working together now both of those are gonna, be wrong. Sometimes I mean couches, coaches and gas to like to admit that they are run sometimes too not just the statistical models which are always gonna be wrong. Sometimes the key is to be wrong in a different way. It's because, if you're wrong in different ways, when you put those two things together, you can come up with a really good decision. Algorithm I was working with it
open the Premier League and that's exactly what we did. We had a filter based on all of these tricks that we heard coming out of models and then When we got a list of players from that filter, we would have a video analyse, look at them. The video is thought the player with promising that we have a human scout, go to a game and wants the players and our head rate going down from that original filter was about seventy percent, which is great, and it gives us plenty of options as well. It voters, but once when I was working with a team anomalous, we took it even a step further, and we said you know we want to make sure that we're gonna bringing players from this film that the coach is gonna like right away, so we gave the coach a questionnaire, and we said here all the attributes that were measuring tell us how important they are either very important, someone important or no long port and, if you said very important, we gave a hundred percent way to that. You be said somewhat important. We gave it It is a more important we give zero, and then we had a new formula to look for the players legs around the world, then the hurried started having the route because
We would show him guys that responded by this. I spoke rhetoric and he loved them. I love that was easy. Metrics. Our main you tell us which the Premier League enabling Club is always that get you a rap across the knuckles have some non disclosure agree. I thought I might, I might have guess they would ever I don't mind me asking the thing: is I spent four days in Turin talking with the good people of events? This is backing Ninety eight- and I remember sitting in There- and you don't know this is- is Roberto Betika, the Silver Fox, legendary italian striker members sitting in his office with the translator, I'm going through other. How do you approach your transfers, your signings, and he said we do not take the coach knocking on the doors I need strike. I wanna go keeper. I need a winner. I need a mid feel player holding attacking whichever it is. What we do is we
sit down as a group, and then we decide the thoughts of the group and the underlying messages. Vis signing has to be of benefit to events as football club. What we bring in has to have a value while it's here but then be of value to us with a plus plus once it leaves, and there will always be something that comes in the brakes that up, but invariably that was their model interest. It was a very interesting thought process is. Is that thought process in play with more clubs now or, as you said, does the way land in different areas because of the different thinking that's in place, if you had a process like that event, as process, maybe didn't have any daddy analysts, you would still the head of a lot of clubs that do have doubted air was and no process and allow. Why? Because there are some clubs that
don't have regular, recruiting meetings, not weekly, not monthly. They dont. A recruiting committee? They dont have this filtration, we're in a video scouts. A coach can come in here. A couple of weeks before the transfer window opens put down a list. Maybe up to now or three names and say I want these instead of an alternatives of ten at each position, and this happens even clubs at the highest level, and if you do that, you're just taken a huge amount of risk. I need just broke my heart. We were talking about progress and a wonderful en bloc seeing your thinking and build your like in an inn in that part of the game to my passion, football and then, when you tell me, there are still clubs anchored into way back into the twentieth century is heartbreaking to hear that book.
Then parliament not surprise. L change when they lose that's out were how a laser, let's mean part from the recruitment side of it, because it does have such a presence. Is we ve, as we ve highlighted in the most most obviously would with some of my wing Rooney, which our american listeners will quite too because of his stand out performances this season? What other areas can you take? The area of analytics to fall, for instance, Artem you're on our time and we have a group of, but we we think we can get more of them out of them, but how What areas do you feel data analytics can move into? That would allow us to achieve even more. We'll tactics has a big area and every club I worked with, we ve done Pre match opposition,
Since then, we do posed matched analysis as well to see what's gone right and what's gone wrong. The pre match packages can be very comprehensive. They can be tailored to each opponent as well. We could look at how they're back for distribute the ball. We can look at me. The most important nodes in their passing networks are gonna, get how they set up four corners. Where the conditions are, we can map all of their set pieces, and we can. We can do a bunch of stuff like that, but we can do for individual players as well, for example at the club which was recently swans city, set Jordan, I you demand striker on loan to Crystal Palace, younger former clubs, very this season factual and it was, obviously of benefit to both clubs. To have him succeed right because They wanted to see his value. Increasing ALS obviously wanted him to do well. Site gave their ownership,
an owners manual for Jordan. I you to show which situations he'd been most successful and where he created the highest quality chances where he had the best quality touches. There was a really coherent narrative about how we moved across the pitcher what his options were at each. Along the pitch and what other players needed to be indifferent positions for him to have the maximum effectiveness. But I think that can be a very powerful to infatuated, because the Crystal Palace have American Colonnas who own sports franchises the USA, so them more than aware of this type of thinking makes em it's interesting just gave them the road map to get more out of one.
And that is my doll granular, that I'm wondering is it? Will we see at some point right now? You have teams, as your client welder, come appointing where your clients are actually agents who are able to take your information on that granular level and increase the value of the players when they go into legal, patients are we going to see that happening, interesting died? I think we certainly will it's now the case that there are no doubt providers that agents can get access to the same quality of that as the clubs do. He saw some like this happening hockey. I remember a couple There was a big contract negotiations for a player. I believe it was with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and you know that the club knew that this was their guy. This was the they wanted. They want done all the analytics and then the age. Comes in with a huge binder with others
just how good his boy or was- I wasn't- gonna take a dollar. That's the guy one is my exactly ok with we talk about them and they're, not in the room. So let's invite the main players Some do some doubt. Am I right engage in the analytical process. Some I'll tell you. They watched it because the analysts will provide a video package for so full back were, who has rightly we're gonna play. Parasangs remains high It is a one on one with, namely junior, so they produce a cage on name are tracking a mapping another. If you gonna pagans name out, you are fully focus because, if you're, not Ok, I guess you're getting better tat he added to all by the way, but you take that sort of one on one confrontation in a game, how many players engage and how many players just don't care
I mean there's, there's a huge variety. We saw it in the end. If all recently there was a player to whom the team started, sending blank tape to see if he was really watch the video armies area. I want those Blitzer advertiser that are pretty quick, but yeah there's a variety. I think that it depends culture and it depends on the players that you're gonna bring in it starts with the head coach and an filters on down from their at Bolton from but when SAM advice was the coach beer, they had an incredibly intends data culture. They made the players by into it. They they measure players they brought in. Would they got down to in terms of granularity chuck- and they got down to where the players
sitting in the video rum during the sessions in the upper edge, unbelievable unbelievable man. That's not it's there. It's so crazy, went when someone me big. Sam has a reputation and that's the reputation. Some people love him some people down, but what he did was in rice, this thinking and in an and the more outlier type of thoughts back in the mid nineties. That no one else wanted to know about, you know what, if what you say about on our man, that's voodoo near when that what Sugar Ray Leonard says you re letters that very badly and always valued compute. All this sort of thing that we are discussing- wool voodoo stuff man- he wasn't having it it's interesting
kind of echo's vibrates today and I'd be surprised or it is a question: do you think, there's room for a data pool player in ITALY? Football data poor player is incorrect. Yes, one who doesn't attention, I mean if, if Europe players talented any work very high you shouldn't need to pay attention because the cultures are gonna, take the insights on board and then convey them to you right now that you know there's players, we're gonna, be all that consume that stuff directly and there's some players who may need an interpreter just like there's some cultures who made an needed interpreted at an end, that's fine, because if they still have ability, you need to be able to incorporate that now how about betting? I'm just don't you can't help, but monitoring these. Can you yeah it's gotta as God, it's like what do you do and can predictive analytics? Actually how the better,
and there are you. Gonna have guys that are just getting it this so that they can lay money on the line and perhaps link some dough already have really there There are plenty of guys who have year and what s interesting is some of those guys have gone on to by clubs as well get out. You bet I met Branford and vigilant and twenty bloom and brightened or another one of your form, a clear and item. I noted these. These are guys who made their money in bearing on football and sometimes other sports and how they're running their clubs with an analytics bent wasted. No, you haven't I have an that's all, that's what I've actually looking to do. Do I have a group of investors I'm pulling together and we want to buy a club because we think one of the best ways to monetize my analytics platform is to take a club from it.
Or division in Europe and get a promoted to hire division words. Gonna have a lot more about was something tells me you're going to be damned successful. Sir I'll tell you about my family than we we must have Now the conversation man that one be recorded I'd love to have that conversation. It has been a pleasure damn area is so much what a fascinating conversations and thank you for bringing your mind to my game, I don't know any pleasure enabling a prior game you have on the shoulders of giants as we all stand. Thank you then open the gentleman who knew you'd like China because you'd better written Galaxy, I am right. Buddy tell you something strange about whole career. Is it at all of Gore rightness sports betting and I'm using ETA limits at five, a soccer team, or should I say, of football club, we gotta play your pink Floyd tracked good money that might just dampen you're. So for a while right, we will take that break fabulous, stand oatman
in August on. Let me come back, we'll have the fabulous doktor, Howard Hamilton, another data analysed, football conquer, not coming What about running around my own backyard, noting out, we spoke to them,
from North Analytic, and I can say now: we have the privilege of pressure to speak to another sports and livestock to Howard Hamilton found a and c o of soccer metrics from Greece research, what an internationally recognised thought leader in the current and future use of analytics in soccer a k, a football doktor. How it happened to welcome the prime time. Sir, thank you very much for inviting you well easily here. Oh all, right, let's get straight into his tell us about soccer metrics, so The matrix is a their legs firm that performs quantitative analysis on data that the food industry generates and uses every day from team performance play. Performance team in play revaluation of operational statistics relating to the performance.
The performance of leagues before and set of teams at the front office if it involves data of any sort. I'm interested in allies in it and sharing actionable information. So it's not! It's not just focusing on the game, the players, the outcome and why it might be things into the front office so well for things that ticket sales. Other areas like that. If I got that Rome ticket sales as part of it, there is one project I did very early on where I was looking at the sensitivity of ticket sales to the current record of sports team, and there are some interest in that. I presented a project
presented at work at a pen Wharton about five six years ago, and there are many of us from stuck up on that. I was acting as using Start ups data. The foreign office work more relates toward a benchmarking analysis. There is. There is professor out the UK named Bill Gerard. He was a he's worth with Billy being on a number of projects on open days to us, Ed awkward, and he created benchmarking analysis of the performance that team scar relative. The gap of valuable resource their play, then ok I'll mistakes without points at her to win thereof, the amount of table it took the when a match or leak point, and I tried out to eventually soccer. Ok, let's take a step back, no, not a big one dimension to be
Would the Billy Billy Bain, I said: Almah chalk is a professional team in the Dutch Lake Right at a division and I'm not mistaken. Billy has joined the group votes board. A football club in England Boundlessly in Yorkshire is football money to point out, as we ve been thinking it is. Is it ripe for the kind of money ball scenario that we saw? The open eyes and what is now prevalent through major league baseball. I think you ve seen a number of places Matthew per Annum and his clubs from Nord Shell, two Brentford
Yeah how's have employed. I guess I'm eyeball type approach. They had a of football strategy taken its in hue, who start stats bomb has done a lot of work of madness, you better boards were not really were whereof. We don't have to focus on that lead. Let's go. Let's commander, has an area at the outset to to answer your question. I I would say that it's it's right for it, but it's a very it's it's a very gradual process. Right now. I think there is still a lot of cultural resistance to it, but not totally unfounded
in my view, but I think that there will be some cultural resistance to. Let me let's switch gear, second cause. I want to ask you about some of the stuff that you ve dine. I was looking at your website and some of the things were you you did and an analysis of effective playing time in them woke up for different referees and players, I mean I'm sorry and teams with those particular officials. What what do you do with that? As a coach like? Do you actually prepare in your game plan for the officials that'll be officiating, and does that That is the EU plan, or your teams being more arrested or more tat store would like. You know why. Why do you do something like that as a team? They are not I'm interested in your answer that, because, as a as a former player who is the referee on the game can not always make a big difference. Centres. Ain't. You talk about that analysis
and I've? I've apply the analysis, the various competitions farm measure, exactly to the English merely to Japan's J way against the World CUP. Am I found out was that the item the idea is a referee really does it makes that much of a difference as to the as to the amount of effective, plain time gay? It's the two teams that make more of a difference. For example, you're going back a few years and Premier league any MASH involving stoke, involve involving stokes city with almost always aeroplane a effective plain time of of less than fifty five minutes, which are how well below the peril big average, and now I am sharing that was.
People, the Premier League and without my communicating, which team was solely with the least amount of the plane time they all said. Unsure succeed at the bottom and they were I think we're, I think, with a referee is important. It is in.
The amount of say time between stoppages, I'm because that's what Tom issuing stoppages time between fowls, because valves are those events that the referee is actively involved in stopping play and there's alive matches. Where again, that's that's a function to the teams are involved, but the referee has some important as well. Yes, it's so I think the referee matters more as to the amount flow in the match, as opposed to the amount of fat. This time that is actually being some of the words you deeds and thank you for explaining that some of the world's indeed regarding the World CUP, with just seen in the summer in Russia and in this this caught my eye. So please explain what they re as regards the passing networks that are produced and provided by a number of science,
Yours included. Please explain to chalk myself and probably are listening to what is an icon vector, send transitory because beyond us with you how it it sounds. If you stop wet from an episode of STAR Trek who I like it now, and we have just had a dream rivalries textbook? Yes, I'm sure so please explain, never hold gotten so never hold. That is the worst scottish. That's not has got us accept. That's actually Scotty from STAR Trek another of the sovereign power to please the eye, the eigenvectors and try to see that the shock honouring goes out of your own eyes. Yes, she plays with interrupted he's got it all network fairy where you have now you have,
Nodes and ll just make it really specific to passing that works. Okay, so networks consist of nodes and address your edges. Are the paths that your notes are the players and your edges are the passes between a between each player? You can represent this and various ways you can represent. Those nodes and edges in terms of a matrix, I'm just some numerical representation of of this network that the The argument that there is this is real. Scientific F mapped out I'll journalism These deep, as you wish seriously be as deep as you wish. It's it's a representation of of that matter. Of that nature and sensuality is the the relative importance of each node to add to the network
and I didn't vouchers and tragedy is one specific type of measure of importance of a doubt. In our case, a player to the passing at work The reason why I used- and I centrality was that- was that it represented the player who is most important to the structure of that network. If wasn't, there wasn't present passing that working up in the passing network. That passing network would with looked signal we differ. And yes, there is a national variation from ass the match, but even the World CUP were you have a member
three matches something's play for up to seven. You could still identified as players to have you have. It consisted in Pat on the success of their passing network, a salary as one example through some. Ah yes, on gas, almost so is by far the most important passing network, which is extremely unusual because of your plan that the sons of warbler interesting. So what I mean it's funny, I would watch indignation and then, but what someone like how it would do was quantify numerically wonder fire in. If you ve ever seen a passing network, it's a diagram here and an you, can then visualize, but what looks like thirty NFL plays layer on top of what another yeah so immense. What happens is from the enemy
its point of view, if you realize South Korea are using some as one of these points, these notes in an advanced area, you then struck to your team to disable that happened while they are trying to construct every way to innate. The sun to do he thinks it's quite interesting. The way I would look at that, but but how it does and he's he's the like, that's out there, they show you in a visual for that usually condensed people interested. Let me ask you this yeah, ok, so France, when the World CUP right right. Right, and so everybody was just like, while France, when the World CUP wow, ok cause. You know that there are no congratulations. Yes, congratulations and, by the way, Johnny Johnny Bunch Home is in our control room. He's our producers
show- and he is his friends. So you know, I'm sure he's very happy is like I'm thumbs up right now, but here's. What I want to know was France from an analytic standpoint, the best team to when the World CUP, because everybody was oh wow, France, when the World CUP wow, but from an analytic stamp. Why should they have won the World cup? I think France or the most consistent team at the World CUP. I think this world CUP was was very inconsistent. Levels which may irritating for us as fans, I think that this was one of those on parental woke up. So I Germany not making out agreed stage for the first time in eighty years, Spain, yes painful stage. They did England going all the way to the semi. Fine, all a team
the other very Argentina urgency imploding, Brazil that make her seals that I read produce, stance that you produced and Brazil stance, whereas spectacular as their failure gap that only if the, if you look at the expense of gold figures, batches on the not just on expensive goals scoreboard, but also expected goals, allowed was ill was way out and fry in both. Just go categories name. Are, I think his name or had bad? It's too if they were in Brazil advanced to the files, I think he would almost certainly have been seen as the best plan indeterminate, but there, the their conversion rate, was abysmal. Witches
the reason why it investigated for it. As if you look at that match against Belgium, you could see that I think France, it with friends we're getting there there really sardine they had the best I'm sorry about Orient the latter Doktor Hamilton. They were kind of take issue with that. You say there are good team, they would say where the best effing team, because we wonder World CUP, so the thing is sitting. I say it's into Chuck. Sixteen point three percent doesn't sound a lot does it well, we will talk about a hundred percent that was France's conversion rate from up trot challenges, created two chances converted into goals and the team this one, the World CUP, has less than twenty percent conversion rate Is that because everyone is useless or doktor is the game of football that we know and love proving to be a lot harder than people give credit for, and that's why this
or is it a hundred and ten verses? A hundred and three it's. Certainly one meal or to one. It's always been like that. I, if you look at if you look at competitions and saw her from the Knesset competitions to colonise competitions, national team competitions at best a conversion rate from shots. Two goals is around. Ten percent may be eleven twelve percent if it's a higher scoring wig or beer defences are our garbage, so G haven't conversion rate of fifteen percent or ten percent or more is, is really fantastic. Fourteen, especially in their national level, where you don't get along chances score. Yet, if you're converting queerer than a twelve percent clap your play. Your software really good positioning, I'm really far determined and ultimately win it.
What are you gonna? Do you have it? I would have literally here's the Johnny Johnny our producers, looking through the glass here, Johnny everybody in there seems to be saying, as France got lucky so enjoy it, it's not gonna happen again: ok, goddammit and sang like it s, my he just my you never know I'd, say what a pleasure thank you. So much for sharing and the new word of the day is eigenvectors. I get back I again vat right! Ok. Why, given that this is Some he's done it. This is gonna get out. I see our idea. Thank you. So much to do to Howard Hamilton from soccer metrics been a pleasure to talk to him so chuck. We have learnt a love. Yes, we have
A lonely scratch does is, and we have learnt that are some silly names attached to football that have nothing to do with the game itself, but make it all the more interesting I convex high, given that there are, I signed live it s right. Well, I recover from chucks outburst I'd like to save been Gary? I really am I been shut. And this has been playing with science and my little based on football, which
thoroughly enjoyed a hug you have to, and we look forward to your company very, like Galileo job the organs which you could listen discard. Talk commercial free, joint star talk on paper. We're on for as little as five dollars per month and the ads will disappear. Learn more at patriarch dot com. Last star talk, radio!
Transcript generated on 2020-01-19.