The Fate of the World in 2020 (with Ian Bremmer) | Stay Tuned with Preet Transcripts

Hi. This is Amanda Klute editor in chief of ether and I'm here to tell you about Eater Wine Club, our new monthly wines, description box, every boxes created by some of our favorite Somalia's and wine press from across the country and filled with exciting, delicious and highly drinkable restaurant quality. Wine you'll get the wine which is obviously the best part, but also an exclusive newsletter, and an invite to a virtual wine. Pretty busy eater wine club dot com to learn more and use the co chairs to get ten percent off your first month, hasty to listeners on Wednesday February fifth I'll be live in New York City with geopolitical, consulting Rick Wilson. To talk about my book doing justice, which just came out and paper back. Of course, we'll be plenty of other things to discuss to get your tickets before it's too late at symphony space dot, Org, that's symphony, space dot, Org from CAFE, welcome to stay tuned. I'm prepared. I think that there is a pretty high likelihood that will go through elections enough.

And there will be a winner and we will not know if that person is going to be president in twenty one relatively high likelihood that that's Ian Bremmer he's the founder and president of Eurasia Group. A leading global political risk and research. Firm Bremer is also Jeez Euro media, which features videos short explains in part, casts that help breakdown, complex geopolitical events in two thousand one. Burma launch the war first global political risk index, Alyssa debility ratings for emerging market countries and each year Eurasia Group which is their list of the top risks threatening our world firmer, join me last. To talk about the top rests in twenty nineteen and now he's back to talk this year, twenty twenty, which places the upcoming presidential election as the most pressing global threat. You'll tell us why we also talk about the technology. Decoupling of the. U S and China the atmosphere at the recent.

We'll take it, I'm a forum in Davos and Bremmer Twitter spat with president from, but first let's get to your questions, stay tuned, hydrate monies Adam from Chicago love. The show my question for you is about fanatics in Africa has been impeached on articles of attracting congress and abuse of power. But still I hear political commentators and Republicans days that or they debate that those are not

in Portugal, but the present has been impeached on those counts. So my question is: what is this a mandate here, because I can easily see out of shifting something like well he's been in peace for those, so they are obviously in people, but I take it to mean that those political commentators and Republicans are saying that he shouldn't be convicted on those. So what is the proper wording for something that is in principle and has yet to be determined for whether or not its victims? Help me out with your wording here. Thank you very much. Bye, bye, hey Adam thanks for your question and I think you get right to the heart of it. In terms of semantics, I think a lot of people conflate the two things confuse the two things impeachment and conviction: of the parallel that the people make to ordinary criminal practices, that Just the first phase, in the same with an indictment, were the bringing of an academic

through a grand jury, is the first phase in a traditional criminal case. The most important part, then, is the judgment that's rendered or not, rendered in the trial phase in fairness to the people who call certain kinds of conduct unimpeachable, not with saying the fact that President Trump has been impeached, by very lopsided vote on partisan lines in the house. In fairness to those people, I guess they could say We understand that as a fact he was impeached, but it's not conduct for which he should have been impeached so that they so maintain their opposition to it. In fact, a huge number of house Republicans by their vote said it was unimpeachable conduct. But, yes, I think correct that when people are making these arguments now that we're in the Senate phase the trial phase with their meaning to say, is that this conduct does not rise to the level of fiction and removal, and is to go back to a point that I think bears repeating as many times as one is able to repeat it, because it's a fundamental d Of dull trump put forward by a lot of his supporters, his lawyers and, in particular Alan dershowitz- that one reason there

conduct is not immutable or not, conduct for which he should be convicted. Then removed is articles of impeachment have to set forth and explicit crime like something from the criminal code. For a lot of reasons that we've discussed on stay tuned and on the insider podcast. That is not so and my other things by the The people who are saying well, you can actually have impeachment or even conviction on the idea abuse of power. They may be forgetting that there were articles of impeachment both against Nixon and against Clinton. There were style, is abuse of power and in set forth in action. Criminal violation. Suspension comes in an email from Dave, who's asking about. In your times, peace, written by Anil, Kant, Joshua, Geltzer and Mickey Edwards call. John Roberts can call witnesses to trumps trial. Will he and Dave caution is. I would like to hear your thoughts on the articles premise of John Roberts having much more powers to direct the trial. Then the pub has been made aware of and that the Senate needs thirdly, not a majority to overrule him it. This is all true,

to be a game changer and put John in the driver's seat. Was he likes it or not? Thank you. So I think it's an interesting article and Three gentlemen, who pended are very very smart people very experienced people and have a lot of experience with constitutional law and with John Roberts, made seen that our very own Ellie honing, former colleague of mine, from asking. Why wrote a piece on the powers it John Roberts can assert in the cafe brief last week, every you can find it at cafe dot com brief, so the way think about this is not through a legal lens and there arguments to be made, as these folks have made the genre words can assert varies powers if he wants and their varying arguments about what it would take to overrule John Roberts, but the fact of the matter is that it's up to John Robert, side to assert various authorities that he arguably has and is not clear slammed on that he has his powers and I don't think it's a clear slammed Unc that the Senate needs two thirds to over him remember by the way that the Olympics, in the last century and a half for a trial. This nature, the president, I'd stay

was twenty one years ago, when the presiding Supreme Court Chief Justice was William Renquist who, by the way, incidentally, John Roberts Court for after law school and she Justice, Renquist presiding over the Clinton impeachment trial. Aside from the flourish of wearing certain stripes on his black robe, did not take an active role It does not seem to be in the temperament of John Roberts. To assert himself in a major way and weighing on a dramatic conflict about who should be called witnesses. When the rules of the Senate provide for that being done by votes in the Senate, it doesn't seem like and a person is going to take that kind of activists position, especially when the relevant precedent from twenty one years ago of his mentor and former boss is one of being relatively rich and by the way you ve, seen in the last week that there have been opportunities for John Roberts too. Himself, it be derail a line of argument and he has not done so. As far as I could tell aside from one post, one a am admonition to the parties to be civil. On the first day, he's been pretty much quiet, they'll be another opportunity in

couple of days during the question period to see if John Robert, is the kind of cheap justice presiding at the center the ones who assured himself a little bit more well short of making it about relevance about relevance of future witnesses, but what's happen over the next couple of days, is it's gonna, be cheap justice, Roberts reciting, quite and written by senators and putting them to the Trump lawyers and to the house managers. In an ordinary courtroom. You would expect a judge who was in command, proceedings. After asking a question penned by senator and receiving response, there was less than adequate or off point or full of distraction. My ask a follow up worded in his own language, have seen judges do their trial all the time. Will he do that? I doubt it. I dont think renquist it, and so, if you're not see John Roberts taking an active role in policing the questioning and doing followed questioning, then, with all due respect to these folks who have written about the power that John Roberts can assert, even if he is able, I dont think is willing to asserted. I remember also, you know John Robert may take seriously the Then it has the sole power of impeachment. It's really not a judicial process.

And there is also the embarrassment to himself and the institution of the court. Arguably it as a sort himself more and make some controversial decision and then does overruled again and again and again and is not the kind of thing. I think John Robert once a stick his neck out for but I could be wrong I want to address one more issue with respect to the impeachment trial and it's something that broke last night. Media outlets. And reporting that Mitch Mcconnell the Senate Majority leader announced to the Caucasus that he did not have the votes. Yet to forestall the calling of witnesses and, as you may remember, there need to be. If all Democrats vote through witnesses are particular witnesses, they still need for republican senators to there's a possibility to Mitt Romney will, especially with especially with respect to John Bolton, is possible Susan Collins, well, maybe from Markowski. If, if all those three vote for For example, they still need one more, and so there was a lot of celebrating

on the part of folks who think that a fair trial requires witnesses and the pulse that seventy or seventy five percent of Americans think the trial should have witnesses and common sense tells you that every should have witnesses. History tells you that of all fifty, impeachment trials are held in the Senate every one of them had witnesses remember impeachment trials, don't only only occur with respect to the present can occur with with respect to lower officers, including judges to they don't get as much attention, but there's always been witnesses. I would caution people on how savvy and smart Mitch Mcconnell is in it. In fact, true that at the time he made those statements, he couldn't be quite a short that he had enough Republicans aligned to avoid witnesses being called, but also could be a ploy that I've seen Miss MC caully used before both from a distance and close to put the fear of God in senators in his caucus, who are thinking of straying from the pack voting in favor of witnesses, so that knowing a vote on those things is not going to happen for one two or three days. It gives the opportunity for people who are

of the President United States to put pressure on those senators to get in line, and it's where the Mitch Mcconnell is not able to keep his folks online. So Notwithstanding that admission by Ms Mckenna yesterday, notwithstanding common sense and that was notwithstanding principles of fairness, I think it's not got conclusion whatsoever that we're gonna get a witness, not even John Bolton there articles, as I walked into the studio today that I looked at that suggested. The white is making a very, very strong argument, the senators not on principles of fairness, but in the interests of time and politics that they should vote against witnesses, making the organ I understand it that once they opened the door to a witness or two witnesses that the peace, meeting in the Senate will drag on for weeks or months approaching the time of the election, because there will be protracted court fights about executive privilege and other things. Betting on the idea that senators who is to those who are up for reelection in November of this year. Dont want that they want this done. They want this finished and maybe its electorate evils for them. Even look torally to take a bad vote, get it behind us, and

will have moved on to other things by the time you get to November. Those are the arguments that are being made. I don't know if they have force or wait with respect to enough senators remains be seen, and maybe this will be answered before this past even airs. But I think it's a very, very fluid situation with respect to witnesses look in the same way. By the way, it calls to mind a little bit the the final of the hearing for the confirmation of justice for a cabinet. There was a question about what They should hear from someone else or not and at the very last minute Jeff Lake. If memory serves decide that they should extend the confirmation hearing. At the end of the day, the vote was still the same as what people predicted for cabinet was and that may also happen here- that a vote for a quite still seems all but assured, even if there's a brief hiccup here in the plan Mitch Mcconnell. Basically, the White House's argument to senators is something like this is a pandora's box or opening, and it may seem well

wooden nice and logical, to say as a matter of principle that should be witnesses and maybe John Bolton to testify. But then we can have a fight about Joe Biden and then we can have a fight about Hunter Biden and then the Democrats and the house managers are going to fight and some other people from the Office of Management and budget the OMB, and it's just going to be a mess. One, you should avoid the mess and shut this thing down. Uniform parliament is a question of a witness trade which I have never heard of before. Obviously, in it, normal proceeding. Proceeding both sides have the ability to call witnesses and should call witnesses, but they need to be relevant rehash you're. All the reasons why, Joan hundred by not relevant, to the question of the guilt of Donald Trump, with respect to the articles of impeachment and his, eight of mine, because you're not at all, but since back to an earlier question, keep justice. John Roberts is not a self in any way shape or form on what is relevant what is not at a trial? It doesn't matter, I heard your mansion, whose from West Virginia, where their allotted trump supporters openly consider the possibility.

Of Hunter Biden being relevant witness. So these you're being decided not just on the merits, not just on the rules of evidence there being decided based on political considerations and efficacy considerations. And so we'll see the driving narrative of having a trial to decide the guilt or innocence of Donald Trump. On these articles of impeachment No witnesses being called, looks absolutely terrible for the president and his supporters, and I think that's the reason why you're getting some republicans wavering, maybe not enough not any, but at least contemplating some middle road. So they can make the argument to constituents that it was somewhat of a fair process and they could get on with it, because it will look ridiculous if this trial comes to a close without hearing from John Bolton and then John Bolton goes on his book tour, in six weeks and says all these things that might have born on the guilt or innocence of Donald Trump. I think it just looks terrible and they know it.

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And it office visits to learn more visit? Mainline health org, slash, integrative primary care, that's mainline health dot, Org, slash, integrative primary care, my guest. This week is in Bremmer, he's the present and founder of Eurasia Group a risk research firm at the forefront of predicting global threats, he's a busy guy along with assessing risk, is also the host of the podcast g zero world with Ian Bremmer, an author, and an editor at large and foreign affairs columnist at Time magazine firmer joy we talk about Eurasia groups, top risks for twenty twenty. What's number one United States politics, and it's the first time that a domestic- U S, issue, has ever occupied the top spot. We also talk him.

Long term risks of China's economic ascendancy. Why war with IRAN is probably not on the immediate horizon in his view and why trumped might actually be a globalist, that's coming up stating in Bremmer, thanks for being back on the show for Europe? That's what they all say. No, they don't. That's, let's see how you view goes if I so I'm back, You are back you're back back mean it took a year for me to get up the courage to have you back so it's so. You have your new top risks report out we're gonna get to that in a minute, but first I want to ask you about where you been recently. I understand that you have recently returned from Davos, its companies where they have once called the World Economic Forum took you describe. Davos is like because those of us who have never been never been invited, no wonder other fountains of champagne. Other too

loads of caviar. Everywhere you go. It's three thousand people delegates who are all principles of their various organization their decision makers or in Davos, parlance, stakeholders. And they're going there primarily because they can get their time is their most valuable resource they dont, and given that the don't care, how much they pay to improve the efficiency of it, and they get more done with that concentration of other stakeholders in five and they can probably do in a month anywhere else. Having said that, and that is all a constellation of hangers on who have an economy of being close to people who, decisions are in power and that's an interesting thing, the people that are outside the Congress Center, but nonetheless fine, that's very important. That's a gray zone, great economy, but perhaps the most trusting the Davos is that has been going on for fifty years now and for

to the history of Davos, the explicit ideology of the place, which is promoting globalization and globalism. So the idea that you know it's good for everyone to take advantage of more and more open borders, free trade in a sort of free migration and freedom, for fifty years. Mostly that has been a resurgent and increasingly dominant ideology that is clearly not true any more, and it's not true in part, because the elites in the western is increasingly nefarious by their own populations and its also, not true, because a lot of other countries at their specially China or building an alternative architecture to what the wealth is all about, and so that made this forum much more. Let's, challenged in its self satisfaction there, Is that with a smile? So why do you go well? I go because, if you're in the kind of business that I'm in, which is trying,

understand how the world works for content perspective, you're talking to a whole bunch of people, there you have to travel an immense amount to get to see all of them and the biggest, so many of the people that are relevant to my bed so there from a client perspective as well. So I mean five days of Davos is really it's up. There's no other place like it in a good way, in a bad way. In a strange way in stimulating way. How much diversity of opinion is there? Does this less diversity of opinion then you'd. Like I mean these are people from Singapore New York, London, Moscow heck. I was with the minister of Finance from Zimbabwe, but who had a foreign western events decree who have vastly more in common with each other than the usually people that live five miles down the road in their own countries, and that is a big part of the problem that we have in the world today. So

fascinated is that a criticism of the World Economic Forum, the world economic form, is a platform. Their ability to move. The discourse is dramatically less. They tried to this year. They invited Greta Thunberg, she was there and she got a lot of attention. They put climate as the dominant issue on the public agenda. How as Greta Thunberg saved well as a spectacle. Mostly, everyone was interested in swarming her and getting their photo of her and all of that kind of thing. But if you ask you know, in terms of climate agenda the average with death it is much more aligned with Donald Trump than they are. We gotta find work, and that is an enforced reality, but one that needs to be remarked upon, and that is less the fault of the wealth there.

The reality of what global elites and decision makers are all about an why we're in this pickle with climate to begin with so dont rob went he I wasn't. I mean how was he received and how is his speech in particular, received by the only applause line he got was when he promised that he was going to be a part of this trillion tree in a thing where I think you Did it because it's a really big number in our trump, he doesn't say trillion very often technologies as gazillion. He could. Gazillion, but that's not a real number but trillion. Unless you want to talk about the. U S, debt, it's very hard to bring that trillions right. So this was exciting for him. He didn't get applause line otherwise, but when you left the speech and Then you have. The speech was kind of unremarkable. I mean there was an enormous amount of exaggeration, but it was also basically conscript. He didn't ad Lib didn't do honest affront impeachment. All that no and no one talks about impeachment all week asked that was not a big topic. It wasn't running at all at all at all. You also wrote that the attendees at the world, economic form this year were less hostile,

two or less perplexed by or some other verb trump trump than they were two years ago. True, how? How is that well, one because a lot of the statements he made about free trade, which really concerned them years ago- they now see as either not having much of a fist inside the glove or having been resolved in their favour. The? U S: Mexico, Canada? U S! China phase, one, Japan so Korea, even the EU, which is the proximate danger? Both sides took a pretty significant step away over the course of the last few weeks for eminent tariffs and that something that's part of the simple issue that most attendees would have a significant problem, a problem they obviously like as tax policies. The office like his regulatory role. Back I mean he's been business friendly. You know you have more significant. If you go back to three years ago, when he first became president, there were very few Democrats the believed that the US economy would be doing as well today as it is after

here's a trap. The beneficiaries of those sets of policies are largely the people, the ten, the World economic forum. So I suppose it should not be surprising, even if it might be a little disturbing that most of them are much more comfortable with Trump winning a second term and belief will, then they would be certainly would Bernie Sanders Elizabeth worn, but frankly, many of them even some of those sent but further left candidates that are plausible from the democratic side That's what you're saying earlier about the lack of diversity there and how maybe the world economic forum is less relevant and less influential than it was because the domestic populations of some of the folks who go there have a different point of view, then they might have a few years ago. Only do we need to Davos. Do we whose we the world? I don't I'm it's hard to say it's hard to say, has it lasted its influence. It certainly outlasted its money. Happily global influence. Read him in that

true. It was in some ways the oars position that put out some of the ideas that weren't dominant among global thinkers for a long time that were received wisdom and I don't think that's true anymore and I think aware of that, but in a let's also recognize that no matter what the agenda of Davos may be, whether its climate or inequality, A I and the fourth industrial revolution, which was coined by clear Schwab that term, which is also afraid with ideology people that are going. There are actually most interested in making sure that their businesses are successful and, frankly, an organisation that helps to ensure that the profitability and productivity of the private sector's high on balance is something that is good for the world. If you also have global,

Britain structures that are regulating those companies. Those private sector is effectively. If you have social contracts that actually works, so I'm an unbalanced. I want companies to do better, as opposed to worse because companies that are doing worse are not thinking about how they can share wealth, how they can spend on things that will help the rest of the world. There's going to be a lot less focus on. When we're a down cycle economically than when we're an upcycle economically, we need to understand that, but what I think is broken is much deeper than just talking about the World economic forum. It's much more failure of governance. That's what I would say last question on Davos. Is it odd that Donald Trump seeks to go there with great fanfare, given that he is, I believe in his own words by his speeches, anti globalist whatever? That means, and Whatever that means- and here you have a collection of arguably elitist globalists. Well, he says: he's anti mainstream media too level either, but so he needs to be on. He needs done every day. So, first of all, the fact that this is where the attention of

western media is going to be concentrated. The most for those five days means that, if he's not, there he's not going as much attention. So it's not in any way a surprise that it is important for him either. He may not like that. Leads, but he desperately craves their attention, their adulation and, frankly, to be one of them right. So I'm not it S. Really I mean that's the weird thing like he desperately wants to be a part of these cultures and circles that sometimes rejected, including the mainstream media right and again he's fundamentally much more of a globalist in both his history, his business activities, his media activities and now his policies, Then people like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren- I mean if it may be that in terms of his personal character, his upbringing, his vulgarity, not Davos, man he's not doesn't behave in the way. One should act, he's not good with tee sandwiches right, but Bolivia, point in his favour.

Well, he's more big mac than teeth temperatures. An Davos is more t sandwiches than big MAC. I don't think there isn't a DNS and Davos well, I grew up in the projects and I'm I'm not there any more, so I mean you told them into sandwiches herb between. I mean such Asia. No, no I mean like I actually want to eat. Healthy frankly, does effigy sandwiches, but probably more like you know, sushi chicken Superman. Just I want to know where my food came from process is not good for my position in the chicken that could work of those are two different. Those could be the same thing. I mean there's rice, uniting for sufficient that I am not in any way surprised that Trump is aligned with us. Anyway. Surprise, the Davos folks a more comfortable with trumped than they want to admit and that Gretta was you know a nice shiny object, but the end of the day is kind of gonna be a sad bump in the road for where the private sector and the public sector speeding

had been decided, we're not having. Finally, we will present very seriously very seriously think we need to be talk. I'm gonna find a well off. I'm gonna have a diverse suited her you things to mark you about really well relations, who s a mocking me, I'm gonna have them suffer So you have a lot of buttons and assured undone, for example, to right now that seems to be twice as many illnesses that's what you do it's, DR time, bremmer collars without so top risks. Twenty twenty! This kid you remind me because maybe not everyone's, isn't to the last episode from year ago. Given that ology deportees out of your butt, Jeff spies do have metrics, I mean you, you do a good job of setting for some prose. Beneath each of these risks and they sound plausible to me. But how do you think about doing this very quickly that will get to what you think the top risk Our methodology is impact of risk imminence of risk likelihood of risk. The three those things put together

for the year and wrist to whom to what risks to the global macro environment of global macro economy and the global MAC or political stability. Those two things: together. We have a tuna people, infirm they spend months all putting together their ideas of corruption. Is chairman of her myself led the process That goes to a lot of iterations cutter in floor. Most importantly, is when it comes out. We keep it on our home page the whole damn year, end of the year. We go back and we see how we ve done. I think it's really important decent you have to have today voted for the last year we were a little my recollection is. You were a little bit of the view that lots of folks were overly scared and being cry babies. The country was great and the world was great and stop your whining. He'll be fine, and I feel- and I was all but more apprehensive the world and seem to be a little bit more apprehensive this. I am more apprehensive looking forward to twenty twenty, but I think for twenty nineteen I think we were on the money, we were much less concerned that things like North Korea,

The blow up. Wasn't everyone risk Lasher number one risky. Let what the funny thing numberless issues, something we call bad seeds and we said there are lots of these big structural geo. Political problems that are sound for longer term harvest, but actually there aren't a lot of risks that are gonna come out this year, so it was first time that the top briskly I was kind of a misdirection was telling people that all the headlines out there really aren't. The sheer and the fact that the markets work in a record highs at the end and the fact that you went through the Mulder report. Not a helluva lot happened. The fact you go to Davos and urban still comfortable. I am deeply concerned about the long term. Political trajectories of many things are happening just in the U S, but in the world as a whole, we had more the world as a whole, but not for twenty nineteen I actually think we came up with what is going on and quickly. That's not in here issue that I've been started to worry about cause. I were about. These people worries about dread disease it by this pandemics yeah. So

on a virus- that's very troubling to me and my family into a lot of folks here. Can you say something about that? He had ever yeah. So I want to say something very brought about that, which is that, even if the? U S, China relationship was good and it's not. The fact that China is on track to being the world's largest economy, is assertively. It's a good thing for China. It's a really bad thing for the world in ways that should be obvious to people like number one. It is a middle income economy which means, for example, they need a lot more coal. For energy, that's bad, climate right. I mean these people that all they don't have carjack, they want cars, they don't eat meat, yet they want to have improved western type diet, so their carbon footprint is concrete massively. We don't trust it at their governance is bad. You know their show. Many things they dont have rule of law when the United States was at that level income? Our governance was not very good

you just don't focused more on higher in o hierarchies of mass triangle, when you're trying to get you people just basic food on the table and part of the global middle class, and The corona virus is the big piece of this he's in that its exploding in China is because they have a bigger economy with people travel all over the country and all over the world, but a lot of their people still in age and practices, lack of health, quality, lack of hospitals, lack of data, lack of political responsibility that befits a country that is not in the first world, and so that's a serious problem with the same corona virus was happening in Japan or the United States, without probably would have happened because they would have had much better ways to have stopped that disease from transmitting. Self from animals to human beings. But secondly, if it happened, we'd have much better capacity to I d, If I recognize it and stop it and we don't with China, so

never mind the fact that their communists in their state capitalists- and there you know, authoritarian the simple fact that China is going The largest economy in the world means that are, we're standing of global governance is going to become worse, more risky, more problematic more volatile, more uncertain and the corona virus is a part of it. Part of the reason why our number two and number three risks in the world, Twenty twenty two shillings, China. China, is precisely the reason why we have what you have to because one of them has to do with the decoupling of the: U S and China Technological systems from other than really those are global ramifications. That's the rise of a virtual Berlin Wall determining like the UK still use Weiwei, five g and, as a consequence, while the so called special relationship break down with the? U S and very much more limited possibilities of you You can trade, you and other countries to do so. There is what then, that the risk of what one it's gone.

Polarization follows a very different trajectory, which means constraints on the possibility of global market exposure, global growth, all of that and and the growth of a global tech war where we each one a kind of undermine the other side where the third risk, which is about? U S! China relations has more to do with the constellation of other things that the? U S and China Fine problematic about each other human rights with the weaker. As Hong Kong, Taiwan is trying to see that. And so we could have squish them together and made him one massive risk about. You are China consolation? We state that we thought that would be too complicated frankly, and he made a ten weeks have another one I mean it believe me. There were other rested his career, but also with respect to the south. Africa's not in here could very easily. They were kind of eleven. We respect these two different risk categories relating to China had explained that matters to the average american dwell. Let me, as you saw MIKE Palm pale the other day the average American doesn't care about. Ukraine can't find a map. He doesn't think that NPR confinement,

It was a lie, and I know that woman with a view to carry around on Mark maps like who, who does the hood, that does not mean down like Bumpo. I've met him, I don't know, did he did he give you a geographic was he did not know. I've been in the way ass before they showed me. Maps and up steady devil. He definitely button follow up to the top beef. See, I would say, of the people that would definitely but nowhere top. I would put my pencil the top right. I think everything is buttoned when it comes to make that I think the bonds are things don't even usually are buttons when it comes to make them. Yes, he's got ceremonial bodies, you're more of my conversation in just a moment, a folks prettier, as many of you know, CAFE, is now part of the box. Media pack has never hear it stay tuned. We engage in discussions each week about the most critical issues of our time.

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Unexplainable, it's a new signs show from vocs about all the things we don't know it might some kind of intuitive, but think back to May when Doktor felt. She said this. I am very careful, hopefully humble and knowing that I dont know everything about this disease. This goes way beyond covert, because there's a ton of scientists still don't fully understand like how the nose works. It contains peace, peace, all the mysteries pork, exactly what's going on deep inside the earth where they didn't know, that was the whole problem, but why a ball of lightning might just appear in your kitchen. It crackles upwards crackles, downwards. It's its blazing blue white, like a diamond on a revenge, kick seriously what is going on with ball. Lightning Dern, if I know

I'm your host? No one has been felled, and this is unexplainable subscribe wherever you listen to get new episodes every Wednesday starting marched him from the Vocs media pack, gas network. Should you have had a reference to the corona virus and, and this being another consequence of the state of affairs infrastructure, wise and governance wise in China, because that's the carving biggest people's attention? Will long term sort of global skirmishes about technology is hard for people to get the date. They stand when people go the hospital and die here. I think the issue is that China creates whether its and cyber governance. Around pandemic modeling or its around, even sudden series of bankruptcies that they weren't aware of couldn't handle, have been secret about simply put China's

to be outside on these lists. For these systemic reasons, like we weren't aware, the coronavirus a few weeks ago was about was about to show up on the field. One thing one thing that should be surprising right right before this report came out was assassinated and yet IRAN is not a top risk care. Well, I can because you call Irona red hearing it. You see it's right up here at the top of my notes. Yeah see this I have corona virus is balsy, call right and then a ballsy call yeah. It could be a shitty cal. I don't think so. I think it's right on the money we're going to go through that, but we're going out of order here. Okay, I don't know you had an organ. Tell me a story with two and certainly does not mention China basically skipped the first risk risk number one which is the one that is most alone Well, my inner my interests and always aligned with me, but it's the first time you ve picked a wrestling. The other things on the list are things like. As we talk about to China Risks, India, very clever, India gets modified, modified, that's Ray is required to come up with. No, I didn't. Actually, I didn't think you did

that you're a smart guy altogether ponds, and you have climate change on here. You have crescendo, discontent in Latin America, Turkey. I also care about turkey, but number one is domestic american politics. It is what's going on. Well, you know what's going on, but I want you. They tell us what you think is going on, Folks know what I think they tell them everywhere. Tell everyone every week, but you you refer to it, looks like a page one you say John really about all things. Twenty twenty is a tipping point and then, in that context, in that frame, further to the greatest risk number one risk its entitled rigged with an exclamation mark, followed by a common, which is an odd Anna started, could look look. It's my or to punctuation, Morgiana guy, just an annual later rigged, exclamation, more Colin, who governs the? U S, question mark is a lotta. I almost through an ox rates, vary promiscuous with their lives

The EU has entered his pissed off every losers, but you don't need a serious to put in Africa as a beautiful. That's very locks up is very promiscuous usage of punctuation gear in a short title unit on there I want to get out of here number one. I when I think about you it I dont think about promiscuous use of punctuation. I don't it's the one button things but to burn thing as if we were more careful so did tromp right this headline really you without the idea, the idea was forced to look a little bit like a trump tweet rigged hoax. So wrong society You saw what he said. You do a trumpet previously when he sent me that the recession, to come to the ASEAN, stating that up you're you're you're hugest, most massive screw up of the year. We are going to talk about it. I welcome MR framework. I got your dear your twitter fiasco in your twitter around us, we can talk about now is a gallery. I was there, I don't want it. There's no energy were foreshadowing. Yes, we will talk about the time that

Emma was treated at by the present I'd states. Could you screwed up you screwed up in bigger Matthew? Apologise for that come back to that. I myself, because we regard that as a good. What is the risk was respected domestic politics here and why is it such a big deal you're my cause, you don't think so last right last year, I did not think the mother investigation was gonna eat anything. I thought the way it was structured. You're not gonna, be able to show that Trump personally was involved in the russian effort to engage in influence undermine twenty six election pay about people around him. That certainly did like ban afford who is now in prison, but I wasn't really worried about that. This impeachment process, I think a significant. I think it's me if, in fact, I'm on the record a saying my personal view is the present should indeed be impeached for abuse labels.

Reached and should be conducted and removed and removed. I believe that yes, but the fact that are unlikely to happen now. It's unlikely happened, it's not going to snark. Ok, it's not gonna happen. Yes, it is maybe not breathing formulae. This question. If it were likely to happen there, how would that affect your perception of the risk in item one? It will go down and good because you would have what you have Michael Pence, as buttoned up Michael pants years, whereas the United States, but for whom rule of law is not going to be an issue. I mean Debbie, any policies he might put in place that you might not like that? I might not like, but but This is the way it aren't you indirectly saying or directly saying that the existence of done tromp in the office of the presidency presence, perhaps the most massive global risk and twenty twenty because of this upcoming election. Yes, in a way that I have not believe that it has put forth such an annual risk, the last three years- yes, I remember what I mean is that impeachment is about to be broken as a constraint on the. U S executive, especially this executive in the run up to the twin

we watch it. I mean he will be acquitted despite having clearly abused power in an effort to tilt the election in his favor. He is then running for election. He will continue as ever happen before that's never happened before and so, and I also believe that the election is likely to be close. If I thought I was gonna, be a landslide in either direction, I would be less concerned about the USSR risk your concern is that large swathes of the public Miss forty to forty percent, no matter what happened away will not find the election to have been legitimate, correct, and that is the destabilizing thing. The threat that combined with just how dysfunctional Congress will be in reaction to that, I think that there is a pretty high likelihood that we'll go through elections in November and there will be a winner and we will not know if that person is going to be president in twenty twenty one, because a relatively high likelihood of that and that's clearly never been the case luxury Gore. Why

don't push! You got bigger, worse things, Bush be Gore, I mean, even though it went to the Supreme Court. I was about if you know a couple hundred votes in Florida. The process the concerns were fairly tightly defined, both Bush in court. On the sidelines, waiting for the outcome for the Supreme Court and even though the vote was a partisan vote by the Supreme Court, Gore was prepared and Bush would have been prepared to accept the outcome The way so he conceded Bush became President Gore never got over personally, but the country moved on the Billy to happen. This time around, I think, is much lower. So, let's play it out in both directions. Trump loses we'll talk about to whom he loses that matters in your analysis or not Trump loses. He doesn't go quiet, into the night, but do you think, there's a chance like Michael Cone, as former lawyer said, when he testified and for the Congress that he'll try not to leave it all? I certainly think he will you. Every mechanism available to him to remove in office. You were if he loses

my old house electoral by title action, title action. I think that, yes, he would actually try to use he. He will certainly say that its rigged, he will say it's a legitimate here. We will talk about votes being casts being stolen. Northern dead people voting. He he's already. That's the last election will say it again. He said he's really one. The popular vote last time round will say it again. I expect he would talk about external intervene. From Ukrainians conspiracy theories that he and others around him have already been promoting all of those things. If it's close, you could easily bet that he's going to do that. It's not just him saying in those things you're starting to get whispers of people in the electorate who, if they believe that to be true, have

in saying some kind of scary thinks, but, like we're glad we have the guns, but given the possibility of significant violence in the country- unlike I don't I'm in the United States- is, I think, much more resilient the mad and I think the number of people that are politically really engaged in the. U S, irrespective which wackos is lower than in a lot of places. Complacency can have Hi are voting. Turnout is comparatively low log people talk big, but there's not that much terrorism, the? U S, not them in and Anti Semitism is up Is it a really worrying, but total levels of Martyrdom United States gunboats actually downright so now, I'm not seriously worried about that, but sir one off issues of political violence that respond to you. I would expect you'd see some of that some more hate crimes with the yeah. I would expect so suppose he leaves separate from casting versions and legitimacy of the election. I think he's got about seventy seven days between election I mean all your average acknowledgement, something like something like that right. Are you

about other things that he may do during the time that will add to global risk. I'm worried more about all of the efforts he will take to delegated myself. It's more about that, especially because I'd think he's very unlikely to quoting what wag the dog. This is not a guy who was inclined in any way to use or abuse military power to get the American involved in wars to help him right, because you know that the abuse of military power by ordering the strike and so on in nowhere do. I think that- and you have coined this new phrase- pet- the dog wag, the dog yeah. It sounds dramatic yeah. What is pet, the dog pet, the dog, is that Trump's orientation to the extent that he's likely to abuse executive power for his personal interest against that of the national interest. The US is not getting into wars. It is about building hotels, formulating deals whatever those deals might happen to be, even if he's giving away the store against the interests of the United States to show that he's the best deal maker ever

and the potential of him too? You know work North Korea in ways that actually undermine? U S, interest long term, but show that he's got it deserves the Nobel he tried that with how a ban in the invitation of them, on the nine eleven anniversary to Camp David, I could see him with Europeans, even early warnings on prepared for negotiations right now. Certainly he would like to have such negotiations to the extent that Trump is gonna. Do something really extraordinarily unusual in the foreign policy side, a lot of, one MSNBC have said he gonna bring us into war. I think the likely that is action extremely well, but it's quite possible that he would try to create deals that really long term aren't good for the Americans in that zone based on sort of his track record. So far, our statements he made or an assessment of his psychology. I think it's a little both but I think, the one that I count on the most his track record. That's what he's actually done and what he has tried to do and not been able to do when constrained by adults in his.

Illustration, so I mean you know: it's intra he's tried to pull troops out of them. At least he historically he's had a hard time with that, because a lot of people like former secretary defence matters, former national security adviser mcmasters others really stopped him from doing that, you member, when the drone was taken out, that global hawk, drawn hundred thirty million dollar drove us like a big bomber by the iranian Madame, was serving sector at the time and was trying to convince Trump personally- and I spoke to matters but this to send s What fighter jets with those drones going forward to Seville, IRAN so the Iranians wooden hit the? U S anymore and Trump refused to do it. Why? Because I didn't want to get sucked dragged into a war and an obscene this consistently

from Trump over Syria. Over Libya, like in just a bunch of Venezuela, pushing back from Bolton they've, been every place that you actually get a download from trumps. Personal intervention when there are debates among his people It's been. I dont want more wars. I want to pull our troops up, let's go back to the election and we ve already hypothesize this conversation that Trump loses does it matter to whom he loses, because our difference between Bernie Sanders becoming the next President Verses Amy Closure, someone like well one that it is obviously a policy set up. Implications for your purposes in talking about global risk instability and everything else, lesson legitimate. Only like so I'm, first of all, I dont see the Democrats having sixty seats in the Senate. I think that institutions massively constrain what individual executives can actually get done. So I worry less about the impact of a Sandridge or worn administration on the trajectory of the country. Then perhaps a lot of people, the business community do

and the one we will go nuts we have around my god. If one becomes president like Facebook faced with livestock, a book said that one was an existential threat to Facebook. I mean I think, he's lying. Think he's actually lying intentionally. But if he's not, I mean the the is extraordinary right, I mean it just shows a complete misunderstanding of how America work will the world be in any way worse. If Facebook went away sure like it would lose jobs right and I mean it's. A billion people are present well yeah a billion people plus that are connected to a western multinational corporation, suddenly went away. Gives the Chinese so much greater opportunity to fill that space and to have not the companies that monetize, just as effectively or even more but will also have that data, go up towards an authoritarian state, capitalist country and create Morbus surveillance culture from the government. And weaken the ability of western liberal democracies to flourish over time. So yeah I mean you, don't that's the info,

in thing right isn't. On the one hand, Facebook is really bad for democracies. On the other hand, our tech companies are both works against the Chinese from National security perspective. So how do you do it both ways? hundred guineas it it's a really problem. Paradox here really problematic, because you don't. You love the state of affairs right now with these cute social media companies, the power they have. The ability they have to choose not to least things that are on the right platform that affect elections. I worry very deeply that all of the people that focus on how problematic the social media companies and companies are for? U S? Democracy aren't talking at all about what the Chinese globally, but they have to be those there's a then diagram with people word about China and people worried about social media, and and U S, democracy or western democracy. There is virtually no overlap between the two circles there than diagram. That's a really bad place to be said means you can get harbour pulse in what should be the oval up to the extent that extensive, maybe not complete, but should be more than that percent, absolutely so now suppose conference it out now that was there was an offer amp than we are

stay on four, while because the one that you liked you If you dont like them, you kind of on real right. I know you like giving your charming I too cold for me, but you like that. You like something about a clean. You have to tell me you're mixing metaphors now. Is it a pond? You dip your toe in the off ramp? That's what you idle talking. All I'm saying is that you need to get it. Give me better guidance for one off ramp is really meant to be an extensive aversion. It's organic. It is becoming it is sometimes you take off ramps, and you end up seeing that the largest chair in America, because a push it otherwise, ever go right as a comical there's a large share to default London or part that bank remain yes for even it that's yes, you have. That's it so you should open another buttoning. Your shirt old and richer see. Did you see how organic that was? There was very well.

Going to like Europe to your name only the last year was it babe the job, but it could be the blue. They re trying to do try test. Yes, my american, this law I dont have a map deserve better, have a bad that doesn't have names on it. So I thought I would try something else. It's how we spend more time on that map. We should because I would point out Ukraine must be clear. I might be close. Let me now come back and checked and I've studied mass resorting to somebody who I can mention but a significant figure and cable news, yes with whom we worked for chatting here before going on air like we ve all like, maybe do some practice with the maps. In case a secular state, no put imports from arbitrary, but I definitely not a pic Bangladesh. You can't mention that because his simplifying and that's not a privilege really. Why was he didn't like? It went right line for I see because I think. Easy waiter, member Ukraine just look the black sea and is a bit the jets into it. That's Crimea, that's where the basis, whatever the attached to that.

That's actually Ukraine, and it's not that it's not that hard rhythm and plus its big geography. Today, rumour has right. So don't you think that it means that my palm pale, has at the ready these maps- and this is a things he doesn't regular basis. He's probably humiliate he's. Gonna, humiliate people he's gonna wanna watch here, but you think that it is just a surprising works when NPR is not the first place, you go to wipe out a map into where the hell's Ukrainian in that's. How come not gonna get high return on that, so you could try that would CNN the mainstream media, but you wouldn't do that with NPR. Those people actually are kind of bookish right built. The generalised lack of knowledge in Amerika about the world, bread you only small subset of human beings. America who know a lot about the world, your business travel the world, but there was, I saw, you saw this right. They did a survey of Americans acids on IRAN and a map, and some people picked areas in the Midwest. Give it some. Also of generic. Some people picked areas that were literally in the middle of oceans, red

imply that about it implies that people are trolling. The response, HU the survey and should take them less serious than I don't buy that people are actually picking Ohio foreign agents. Surveys like this, not that would have notably stupid answers like that. We are right and we help or does it for us to know about what's going on the world its important, but I also think that fake information put forward. In the end, the persistence of a large number of large minority of people that actually want to undermine the entire process really makes these conversations more challenging. Have so now assume Trump winds, there's still gonna be in its close lotion, tens of millions of people who will think based on lots of things, including their experience with interference by Russia. In that way, sixty election is not legitimate. Is that universe? more problematic than one in which there is a feeling of illegitimacy with democratic present, I'm not sure,

I'm honestly not sure, because, on the one hand, in a trump is more of a wild card in what he can do to round up his face, and his unwilling, to play by the rules and rule of law on the- hand, you know the Democrats will probably have a whole bunch of legitimate reasons to feel like this election has been stolen from them and the polarisation in the? U S is really exciting. Of on both sides. So I think both a problem. Magic. I don't know that I wanted necessarily call one out is more. I think the issue is that when you get to an environment where half of the population actually thinks of elections rigged and something needs to be done about it, the potential for blacks, one events to occur from either side is greater. The risk with a response and resilience to a crisis is lower. The willingness of other countries try to take advantage of that uncertainty is higher, so I'm I'm more can

and about how the country responds to an unfortunate sudden escalation that no one anticipated in the middle of this unprecedented crisis, and we have not had an election that will have gone. This babby, though, have failed as Babby some sort of eighteen. Seventy six new suit in the report that was relation between Rutherford behaves in Democrats, Samuel Tilden, correct, as you say, was one of the most hostile controversial campaigns in american history and you think this will be worse. I think it's going to be that move. I said since it'll be the worst since one thousand eight hundred and seventy six and then we were coming off civil war, that was reconstruction. The election failed and There were twenty delegates that both Democrat and Republican Party were convinced that they actually deserved in one, and the only way you could get an election outcome was for acceptance by the Democrats of Retford Haste to win and in return troops had to be taken on the south ended the reconstruction, so It was a an extra legal deal that needed to be caught

altogether right before inauguration- to get to America being able to govern itself again, another rule of law. And broke down in that process. We, see anything remotely like that in this country, but Since, in reading your assessment of the number one risk, I'm feeling a sense not hope and the reason is with effective some risks. Presumably there are things to this end, the longer term. There things, if you can, you can hope that there will be solutions or that there will be and any kind of leadership to deal with these issues with China or some of the other things you mentioned. But I don't see anything done between you, tell me between now and the January and November, sort of minimizes risk. Your talking about the threat of half the country thinking the election is illiterate. Unless it's a landslide victory when, where s the one that they want out, that's what you want is lands, and it is unlikely that looks unlikely. But I will tell you that if this topic were not looking

this year, but we're looking at one hundred and twenty five so the five year with rising this, U Dot S risk would not have been number one another words. I do think that, whether it's a period of weeks or months, we will find our way through this institution will work again. We will get back to not governance as usual, but governance. So I think the likelihood of this actually breaking american institution is actually fairly low. It leading to widespread violence beyond what we saw in nineteen sixty eight kind of stuff that you see historically in Paris, for example. I think it's relatively low, I'm not that worried about that long term, but I do think can't because the beginning with the methodology part of his eminence likelihood and impact the United States Store, economists, the only consolidate superpower, the world, so anything that affects it in for shorter time, has outsize importance on this list for uniform. Yes, there's a short or long off, I don't know what's Yoda, so I saw you

over the summer- and this is not long after your big twitter fiasco, and I gave you some great, but I think you deserved it so you in in May of twenty nineteen? And you have an active twitter account? I do you're far fewer followers and I have, but you know is active, but you have ninety million to think. Oh, you know exactly, let us not exactly a million until one point to one point: do that's even more than two million to one point, two pretty good. I've got you hello, I have punctuation issues, but you can't describe numbers. It's ok, I mean that might affect your followers punctuate. It looks like if you a population looks like you're trying to curse. Yeah, like an eel comic sets for Amazon. Yes, so you tweeted This is therefore a caution. Retail and I've seen other people do this. It is this a memorial day, cynical as its error friend of mine and where in the studio and give you some grief about more than happy thought. So you tweeted quote that you attributed to present from and ultra, went to North Korea and barbaric. He wasn't it signed by the legislator, Viagra about it. We re

I'm drunk yeah. He was in Tokyo, did a thing that also in a different context, in a whole other dimension. Adam shift has in trouble for and that is sort of comically trying, to paraphrase the president dip in a way that, in the modern world, people sometimes think more The verbatim quote You said you tweeted without saying just kidding Kim Jong own is smarter and would make a better present than sleepy Joe Biden and people love that tweet. As a quote trump as well as well as if he had actually said that, yet you that this is a unified field. Theory of Europe was also punctuation problem right yes, yes, clearly right go yet, of course, I'll give you. I think I ll answer priority number one global risk for employment. This is crappy punctuation, no matter what about other things from us. I wasn't actually on twitter after I posted it was you couldn't you can do

what control you pay, no idea that was a browser, then you want to us. I shouldn't I wasn't Nantucket for the weekend of Memorial Day week, an outer screwing around. You know that was a mistake. So when I came back on like eight hours later, although so tweet went viral yeah and because all these people thought. Oh, my god. I thought it was Idiot president. What has he said now? A and part of the reason for that is, comment to you, you're, you are a significant voice, your hundreds of thousands of followers and people's hot, not one point yellow, not well, something goes by and have you done that years we made my own showing maybe entitling cause. I don't make errors kinds of errors. Gonna make that kind of a fool. I learn our ethical mother. I would say that when I was in office all yeah I like learn from other people's mistakes get so I thought deeply about this error of yours, yes, but I thought that you must be telling the truth and it must be a direct actual people. Do it and then so but didn't have a book you were selling at that moment with you. I did not not that because otherwise it would have been a bonanza. What are going well, yeah court. So you meant it ingest Trump tweeted that you

bremmer now admits that he made up a completely ludicrous quote: guess attributing it to me This is what is going on in the age of fake news. Will look, people think can say anything and get away with it and have a rich? He had added. That is really the libel laws should be changed to hold fake news media Campbell. First of all, are you in the news business? No, are you the fake news business now, I'm in the analysis, business, Ok, but it's fair and also had so just tell me just tell me as a person here and you ve told me privately, but now I say to the millions of people who we listen to this by catch. Her was a light to be treated by the present in that way, I was surprised obviously, but he between all sorts of people, all the time. I'll tell you that before he treated at me, I had said like you know, as soon as I realize I got back on line and saw, the people were actually writing about it, people who importantly TED Lou as a million followers stuff like that on their work, and yet they were act and who I know tat. We re acting as if it were true,

lot of people by the small offer him from the offer heavier. You do ten dimension that you know these famous people is at this Davos. They know kind of like relevant to the story, I'm- and I don't like not someone who brings up oh when I was talking to x the other day in just drop the name, but I'm here you're asking me specifically how this process went in. The reason that I took it down so came on. I eat. I was ten hours later and so There were notable people out there that had written about my tweet ass. It were fact after amplify, so I took it down immediately. I wrote this war. Was meant as a joke. My apologies, it was it was. It was completely ludicrous and part of the problem. Of course it's hard to tell which we would if it was president Actually the next day said something it was pretty similar to what I had actually made worse things. He said well beforehand, but still I'm not trump and There have his followers ship, nor am I a political figure, so the rules apply

for me right I mean he can go out in a subdue all sorts of things that aren't applicable other people, and so the right thing to do is own it apologize and move on and to be fair like when. He then tweeted at me. You got of attention, but its very at its very clear that that new cycle those over a matter of hours. So I'm in, if you asked me to have an impact on like why do or who now that all the funny thing I thought you know I'd forgotten about this, I swear to God. I thought you were gonna. Ask me about when Trump sent me a copy of one of my articles a couple months ago? Oh no, but why don't you talk about that too? But you remember that right, yeah, you saw it so I mean Reed's time magazine and

I wrote a piece he was robbed as man of the year. Oh yeah he's. I know what it happens, but he had covers before. As you know, and he's also made up, one, that's just kind of funny is no one does, and so anyway, have you been on the cover of the bag? I have, but not as the subject, I've just written a bunch of covers, so it's a little different news media them every week. Here. It's it's a big! Well now I write for them in part because internationally as huge fellowship- and I really want my stuff to have yet mortal horizon so he read something till he read some. Apparently he does retie most weeks in recent times. All time to stuff like that and he saw the peace. It was about. The are cept trade deal and I was arguing in the peace- is, I believe, the trump leaving the transpacific partnership, which Obama didn't get done, but Trump, then left was one of the biggest strategic mistakes missed return these that we had last four years. And I wrote that our cept getting larger was China, taking advantage of that, so he ripped out that page, he writes on,

in so wrong many more opportunities to work with somebody that Donald Trump in sharply any in sharp, you can still smell the sharply on paying me that I think are close snl wish our pages we took a he had occurred, over to my office, and, as you know, he apparently he was kind of bemused by it it's funny, but you do get the sense like. I did not feel when he wrote that tweet at me before or when he sent me that peace, it wasn't out of me. It was gamesmanship and amuse amusement. This is what he does. It's an act by shift shift yeah Hillary has an act and the funny thing I take my work really seriously. I don't take myself that seriously, and so I mean I'm not the kind of person who a few troll at me. It's can devastate my day my week! If the president does that and he's the President of the United States- and I would rather him read my stuff than not read my stuff: do you have other twitter the work we talked about what a last year- and I think that was for the discussion.

You know is twitter responsible for whose Moors Muslims Tramping President James call me yeah or twitter attitude. You sit whatever's Edward because I mean not only does he have more followers and other people their running, but also among in the amplification of those followers from trawls and from Botz, and also from really effective folks that are politically lined with him in social media. I mean just vastly greater than anybody else has. I think that really matters plus it's not just the? U s- Army Bolton, RO in Brazil. That's how we one you know is. Certainly I think that to solve any in ITALY, I think we want me these. There are these figures that are tapping in two tribal identities, and so media is great at giving people what they want and tribal identities are the most visceral types of identities. People have so people too, Well really succeed on twitter. My pin tweet is you know if you're not following people

don't agree with you dont, like I'm happy to help I'm kind of the anti tribal guy on Twitter I'll try to create my own sort of non tribal drop. The other phrase you used to describe what may be, happening after the election. The sheer is an american breaks. It would you mean by that I meant that after breaks, it happened. One of the big problems that led the UK to just eat itself for three plus years was that so many people believed the outcome was a legitimate. It wasn't just. They couldn't figure out what bricks it was. It was in this vote. Dont have happened. We need to do over. We don't know what we just actually voted for. It was the fundamental question of legitimacy of the outcome right. That is precisely what I think could happen in the United States. Is that people aren't going to agree on what happened during the election speaking of UK element to call you out and I apologize for salmon you with this- but this has been enormous emission here, where, if you can explain it to me, went to the public as can be funny. I can tolerate

No, it's gonna be fine, because the way you the wind up with two big yeah yeah you did that you tell that it so maybe Margo and withdrawing from the monarchy. Could you please defy why that is not among the top risks, bs and unfair. I'm really glad that the Brits are finally focused on deep arguments that don't matter because that's where they should be People as a nation is a great nation, their very good at getting worked over and worked up on things. It don't matter. Why much heard about that? You spend a long time in London right. I do and we have big officer, I'm gonna. If a week's here there is one thing in all seriousness, I'm not saying it should be on the list and maybe can explain your views.

What the future holds for Israel, which time immemorial, has always been a hotbed of controversy and risk of conflict. Here, let him have. I think it's important to recognise that Israel. Palestine, is much less of an issue today for most of the players in the Middle EAST. There has been ten years ago, but whatever the palestinian limit, the Middle EAST is much less minister for the. U S: men, ten years ago. We don't need the energy, for example, and if you ask people in the region what the priorities are its RON, its young men as ISIS and Syria Ciroc. It is repatha which means that the Palestinians not only are getting more and more screwed, but their options are getting more constrained, and I think that it is certainly true. The trump is nothing close to an honest broker between Israel, Palestine. In fact, no more presents happened since Carter really, but he is an honest broker.

Between the Israelis and the Gulf Arabs, which is geopolitically more important. So I think one, a most interesting things that will come out of the peace plan is the possibility that the Gulf Arabs will respond constructively than by the governor of Europe to the south. East Timor out is the bahraini is o mine. Even cutter had not as a fight internally, their plus, of course, he's like Egypt and Jordan, Morocco countries that matter in the region, and so I think it's interesting that the route, the GEO political realities in the Middle EAST have shifted, irrespective of whether its president Trump or somebody else, and they shifted against the Palestinians. They shifted geopolitically, again the Iranians, and that creates an opportunity, and I think that this this effort to put the peace plan forward right now is also linking the fact that everyone's worried about IRAN and the Palestinians again, the short into the stick and so differently not can accept this outcome, but

be movement, geopolitical region on the back of all this. So what I think will be in five years on that. I think that there will be more normalization of relations between Israel and a bunch of arab states, dna states, will have less of a role in the Middle EAST and is an open question as to whether any palestinian government will be able to unlock the aid that is potentially on offer to them, as well as a road towards. A two state solution going through a couple of others were running at the time you mentioned Griffin. Burg was Davos number seven on your list of global risks. Is you call it politics versus economics of climate change, which assessment there, the economics of becoming more The world is actually snapping back with the resource limitations that exist, as well as the extreme climate conditions that are causing real issues, not just and people living in equatorial Africa, South Asia, but even Australia in California, Indonesia, but the politics from governments are still very incremental. Still nowhere close to being able to effectively respond to this

and that is creating geopolitical friction leading some private sector actors to start taking matters into their own hands, particularly because their own, their public's their consumers, are prepared to hurt them on brand if they dont, Microsoft was in big it out from, for example, they're going to go not only carbon neutral for each year, but by twenty thirty, but carbon negative, but twenty fifty for an entire history, their firm, which is really important to the interesting that that's doing that, because the people when I was at Davos last week, the people that were most excited about the Microsoft announcement, but the Indians and the Chinese, because their interest in climate is not how much they emit. Today. It's not how much they met for cap it's how much they have omitted historically to the planet compared to that of the United States and Europeans, and if this, if Microsoft is saying, that's the right way, look at me, other private sector does it that gives them a lot better capacity to really truck press. What equity knee to be in handling climate outta here. The problem, the people in Europe for the Green Party

and a yo see and Bernie Sanders were really promoting. Green new deal have absolutely no interest in responding that, whether only focused on domestic responses They need is a green Marshall plan that would be equitable, but that's not where the dark Green left is in the: U S in Europe so we're heading four very dark green left here, as opposed to just like it. Like green or moderate green, the people that are really committed to spending a lot of money to responding but do not committed spending any money too. Turning to the problems that are much more legitimize long term to the Chinese, the Indians and others in emerging markets, developing markets, and I think that from a global perspective right that should be really addressed by these people so interesting that the far left in the United States is really only far left on equity when it comes to Americans and their real interest. In the rest, the world is pretty limited and I have a problem with the complicated question of where people's concerns should be domestically or otherwise. The little bit ly come. You know I'm on the plains when these people smoking

When's care and others are smoking section not voting session Ugolino Non smoking, section culture as an dealing with, I guess it, our air and air ass. If you had the first row behind a non smoking section that seventy nine smoking section there you know there is a lot of second hand smoke, and so it seems like we're a little bit in a world in which people are assuming. You can't smoking seconds in us. Another reason you should do another button bright open sections on planes, warming, nobody! Nobody in that position was only on binding one button and thus preclude. I know there are a lot of their allotted buns. What about? U? Yours, when we put my shirt collar over my place,

no, no, no no earlier, and he could do that, but you need a different objective shared for that year and a different personality. No, no! I think there is now a reward for that. I'm telling you think we could have. It happened in new non Euro plasticity right yeah, so that the brain will adapt to you actually changing your fashion say something hopeful about the future. You're still be here, the development really this principle also stop here. Ok on that note, in Remo, thanks for being in the showed great always apply them again, the conversation continues for members of the cafe insider community too. The stay tuned bonus with Ian Bremmer and get the exclusive weekly CAFE insider podcast and other exclusive content had to cafe calm com. Insider right You can try a Cathy insider membership free for two weeks of Kapital com. Slash inside it

I want to the show this week by talking about something that everyone experienced on Sunday. Like all of you, I was heartbroken, shocked and aid to learn about the untimely death, a basketball, legend, Kobe Bryant, and not just him. So is thirteen year old, daughter, Gina in seven other people in a helicopter crash, it was a terrible thing in the loss was felt deeply by so many people, not in this country, but all over the world because of the kind of Player Kobe Bryant was and because of the kind of person he was, and because of the magnitude of the loss, as I think Obama wrote copy was just under in the second phase of his life, which promised to be a significant as the first phase so whenever greatness is lost exceptionally early, it causes a lot of sadness. And so that afternoon, notes of morning came in on social media

on television in newspaper articles and lots and lots of people express themselves, but I have to tell you that when I try to relax and not do any work and maybe escape a little bit from news in politics, and all the other stuff that we talk about the past every week. I turned on the Grammy awards and bear in mind that the Grammy words are supposed to be about fun enlarged. Escape. But of course, There was no avoiding recognition of the philosophy Brian and for, among other reasons, Actual Grammy award ceremony was occur, in quote. The house did Kobe Bryant built and when the host of the grand rewards came out, Alisha keys she addressed. Would everyone thinking and feeling and morning about right away and I'll. Tell you when that happen, you wanna, hear good words spoken in this clear what you need to hear in the best and most genuine people know how to speak from the heart.

Know how to say what people need to hear and it been a crazy afternoon at the Grammys, with all the scripts and the jokes and the intros and the songs and the piece is all planned and pre planned and rehearsed for days and weeks probably all that was upended by the untimely death of Kobe Bryant. Alicia Keys said better than anyone else that day, but we all needed to hear- and I know that we're going to do what we're here to do. I know that we're going to all join together and do what we do and happy times and challenging times we're going to sing together we're going to laugh together, we're going to dance together, we're going to cry together bring it all together. We're going to love together and I'll, say also for all the talk about how artists and athletes and, should stand there lane and they don't have important to say on Sunday night when it came to grace in unity and empathy

and yes, a certain kind of leadership. It came from a recording artist. It came from Alicia Keys and then she ended her remarks about Kobe Bryant. By saying, I went in and make sure that we are celebrating the most powerful energy, the most beautiful thing in the world. The one thing that has the power to bring all of us together and as music Well, that's for this episode of stay tuned thanks again to my guest in Bremmer, if you like, do rate and review the show an apple pie casts or wherever you listen, every positive review, new listeners find the shop. Send me your questions about news politics, injustice, tweet them to me. It prepared with the hashtag aspirin

or you can call and leave me a message at six hundred and sixty nine, two hundred and forty seven, seven thousand three hundred and thirty, eight that's six thousand six hundred and ninety two for pretreat or you can send an email to stay tuned at cafe. Dot com, stay tuned is presented by cafe executive Mr Mayer, supper to senior audio producer is David TAT ashore and the cafe team Www Doyle, Matthew, Billy, David curl Andor, Calvin Lord SAM, Your statement and Jeff eyes of our music is by Andrew Dust. I'm prepare our stay too.