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it's just the two of us again for work, I'm getting used to have a drink. I am, I am sweating in our studio by myself, like you'd nervous now, I'm hot, didn't kids, studios, eyed and you know I never even buzz marking enough, but I'm the internet is only working in our studio. For some reason, my and I ate some of that spicy beef Rahman in this hot room, Yeah. That is a dangerous cargo didn't open. Orson dislike sitting here, pouring sweat out everywhere. Well, here's the thing you could go totally dong out spartacus. If you wanted to really only one people have been talking about Dong out lately, Tis a movie grudge page yet well, it's pretty hilarious term, but just please put down like some newspaper something on the chair before you sit on it there bottomed

oh and by the way, speaking of movie, crush you. I think this is gonna, come out the door. After your movie, crush many crush appearance oak on next week, Yom excited about a man I'm a little nervous so no one can be great people going to love it. So if you don't listen to the show, maybe listen to this one episode and then forget about it- so again. If you want or stick around, maybe boost to the numbers- a TED but it was a lot of fun and I think I think people would not want to hear your appearance is why I really appreciate it. You have me on it. Was it was a lot of fun you're. It was hot summit professional at getting paid with turns out. We know what we're doing here, Donnie dodging access, it speaking of which I think we should fret load this episode with a little bit of a seal.

If you are a pretty hard line, anti vex her or if you believe in things, I could plan dynamic that Bill Gates created the corona virus for population. Controlled sure he may know what Listen to this because we're gonna bring you hard and leaned facts lean and mean the penny s point of view. I think that you have good it's a good The way, I think that maybe you got rid of two percent of the hate mail we're gonna get. So thank you for that year will see. I mean, I think it is better. Saying just why? What why rail yourself, all up just listen to your echo chamber, pod gas validate you think, maybe or or or or I worry

calm down and here is out and see what you think. Well, as always, it is always an option. You you so we're not even talking necessarily just about vaccines are anti vaccines. It's almost like her aside thing to this whole thing, but it's definitely still very much intertwined with it we're getting about further Mandy. Are you can't not talk about vaccines, gonna talk about heard immunity right now because with with the herd immunity, especially in the twenty first century, this basically to ways of getting there and what is a robust vaccination programme at right and if you dont know it heard immunity is then then you're probably fine, you been living under a rock and you're, not near any other humans or the internet. You still protected the that's

I heard immunity, those the principal sort of in its simplest form of safety in numbers, and if you have a lot of people or enough people, because there's actual math involved to figure that out is not just a guess of you have enough. People that are immune to a virus, and it can be lucky said through vaccination or through having lived through the disease and then having antibodies. Then population is protected from that disease. Even if they are enemy. That's the idea that so many a certain threshold, Bull Army, in that even people that choose not to vaccinate can hop on that wagon rights and its even like you hop on the wagon, like you're on the wagon, just by virtue of being alive in the society or right. That's a good point The really easy way of understanding that Molly Edmunds used in the house of Works episode, unheard immunity that, if

who pretend you had a bowling alley and each person as their own lane, and this is basically bowling alley. Lane is like they're they're bubble that they live in their work, their home. We think they don't encounter anybody else, just that's kind of like Wally, but with bowling right the first person on online one comes down with, say the flu he can vary. Really pass it on to the woman in lane to she's, not immune to the flu. She will contract it and pass it on to the person and laying three and so on and so forth. An ill just keep going, and eventually people will divide apparently bodies, some of those people die, most will survive and the flu will have a hard time getting that population a second time around, but the woman in lane to is already immunized too, that flew strain savory like a vaccine or something. Then it's not going to transmit

from the first guy in Lane wine to her or it certainly not going to transmit beyond her so she's protected everybody in lanes three through ten. Just by virtue of having been immune to that flu virus, it stopped with her and that's the point of heard immunity. That's the hope that the basis of the whole thing yeah, and if we want to stick with bowling parlance, then that means that that lady is bowling strikes. She's, throwing strikes, strikes not even seven ten split switch. She could have she wanted to that's how I mean she is the perfect game I remember that dumb joke. When I was little about you know, you learn the stupidest jokes. When your kid could ever be so dummy kid can understand him. I think I think so, maybe, but the guy who build a three hundred and one- and you like you- can dollar three hundred and one where you can't,

the three hundred and lose man carefully at how bad it was an that's how much it stuck with me. Did you get that from highlights? The way I got there is pretty bad sounds like a playground joke, I think so, but I think you beat up in the plague even with that one year. So let's talk about heard immunity, some more. We talk about the two ways, natural exposure and vaccinations yeah, and we're going back. Pre vaccination in talking about human history, the herd there heard immunity in it was, I guess the way to describe it is her community the hard way people being exposed to the virus or the bacteria we are developing that immune response and enough. You know they reach that tipping point. We're enough people have it to where, when the moon, but they lost a lot of people along the way. Yet it's part of the problems is if you look at it on an individual level, if you are exposed to a virus or a bacterium and IRAN.

Ramp, it infects you and you come down with the in illness from it. You there's basically to outcomes. You can put it up. Been immune response and win or can lose and die. But if survive and wind. You ve become immunized and that's just the natural course of virus. Is your bacteria. When they encounter humans is at least contagious ones, infectious ones right and in we didn't have any recourse other than that, so it actually kind of good that we do have this natural. In response to catch her. I mean we just wouldn't be around anymore. If we didn't have its part and parcel with human survival or any biological survival is to be able to- a mere response, build Anna bodies so that, if you do encounter this thing again, you'd have to go through the illness all over again for the most part. But though we didn't have any other tools, besides that until the nineteen forties, when we were able to mass manufacture, vaccines

and now all of a sudden, we could say create, heard immunity without buddy ever having to get sick or almost anybody, I'm just through vaccination. Vaccination programmes yeah and here's the deal to men in private the nation they could build up in immunity lose a lot of people on the way and it wasn't like right now we're fully set forever right. Sometimes there would be like Another swell of exposure, whether or not it's like a bunch of people into the country or a bunch of people being born, but basically non immune people, kind of flooding the system and then that percentage point that we're gonna talk about dips below that number. And then you cannot you dont to restart the whole process, but it can it that hamster wheel gets going again. Until that heard, immunity is then reached again yeah. That's, I think. That's what it's called an endemic disease, where it's still there just hanging in the background, but for the most,

our people are immune to it and then, when you have like an influx of births or an influx of immigrants, Akim Flare up again. But then those people get kind of taken into the immunized heard become part of the immunized heard, as well. And in the deal is, is that natural heard immunity is? Are we had until we developed kind of the ability to make massive quantities of vaccines right, I think event, starting in the night he forties, yeah me there were few researchers along the way he really brought this along. There was a couple of people name. A couple of deeds W w C topically and g Wilson who actually coin the germ heard immunity, but in nineteen thirty three thousand epidemiologists name, a W hydraulic who studied measles between nineteen hundred nineteen, thirty one and he's the one that actually kind of quantified this and said I've done the math. If sixty eight percent of kids

fifteen or younger, were immune to measles. Then we're not gonna have a big. Breakin he wrote a very famous paper about it and that's where the term really took off yet and so I heard immunity is basically an epidemiological concept. It gets sometimes, I think, in the in the popular press Firstly, it gets kind of leaned on as if it's like a natural universal law. Something like that. It's raises an observation, but one that had seems to be consistently held up by the success of vaccination programmes that we created to generate artificial, Herbert heard immunity. And that's the point. That's the point of vaccine programmes is to a ok for fur, basically, all of human history. All we had was that natural. Her to me, Nicky, whether we like it or not, but now that we have accedes, we can create vaccine programmes where, if we vaccinate enough people we can force this heard. Immunity

Without almost anybody getting sick like you might have a slight reaction to the vaccine. First small number. People usually somewhere around like say three to ten percent: the vaccines not going to protect you, but if enough people out there get this vaccine they're going to be vaccinated, immunized against the disease without ever having gotten it, and if enough people are accelerated. We will have this heard immunity without having they undergo some disastrous epidemic that kills off some ungodly number of people in May an even larger number of people, sick, that's the basis of vaccines and the vaccination programme and being counted Tens of millions of lives have been saved just from the fact that they have existed since nineteen for yeah I mean that's when they came into mass reduction in seventeen. Ninety six, as when we first started as humans to kind of understand this concept,

There was a man named Edward Jenner who inoculated at a little kid little boy against smallpox, and this is kind of girl sounding, but he infected him with the pass from a blister of cap cow pox, which, steadily and he was like hey. I think I'm onto something here and in two hundred in Argus a hundred forty something years we're, really gonna, be on the ball with stuff right, and there are others like vaccines along the way, But- and I think they were all this kind of small batch- you know like artisan vaccine. They were created but Thea that it was like the forties where this on this mass industrial scale that that they were produced in in only under those circumstances. Can you actually get to immunity for, like a large population like a state or a nation or a world basically

and you know I think we said This- Will- cannot keep beating this stroman repeating this, but the whole concept is to protect people who have even been vaccinated right, sometimes you're too young to get vaccinated Sometimes you have a condition as a child, you literally can't be vaccinated, or maybe your elderly and you had been vaccinated, but you know what they always talk about, especially with Kova nineteen and and flew the elderly population is at risk because they are way more like need to develop. Complications like Pneumonia Isabel and for what's going around now, but as far as even something, chicken pox encephalitis for hepatitis and We don't really know the deal with children and in their immune systems and exactly how, work and what the differences are. But it looks like kids either more robust and against something like chicken pox like when you have it, as it gives usually not such a big deal

when you have it as an adult. It is a big deal because it may be your adult system just going into overdrive, saying you should have had this when you were six for what is with you didn't you have any friends did ear chicken. Pox, probably didn't you did- I did in here we're my sister always have she had a Pox are like on her temple. That always admired. So I made sure like pick one. Might I dont think Emily got it for some reason, and that is brain, oh, my as she does. She have the vaccine against it. I think so. Ok cause since the mid nineties, they came out with a vaccine against various Zella, which is the virus that causes chicken pox. And now it's like you dont have to get it as a kid any anymore. I'm pretty sure somebody I know, didn't get it and did get the vaccine and I'm pretty sure it's my wife right pretty well. So I did so with chicken. Pox sets a good example I, like you know, if you haven't, when your kids, I mean it still wifi,

you can get all those same things like encephalitis, her pneumonia, but you just way likelier to get it as an adult same thing with the flew like the flu can be a deadly depending on how old you are. I think something like this is ninety percent of flu related deaths in fifty to seventy percent of hospitalizations for the flu are for people over aged sixty five, I mean suffered the same exact strain of a bug that lets. You know, has a kid at home, watching prices right, for one day, maybe two. It landed in older person over aged sixty five in the hospital on the brink of death. You know it's just difference of, because that there is that difference, It makes sense to immunize the young inoculate, the young, to protect that the elderly and, let's not forget, even if you couldn't care less about the elderly. You hate me. Elderly, because some obeying the hell didn't you once when you through a football

in his yard, move hated all old people ever since then, do you hate babies, because there people do there are babies- you are too young to be inoculated and then there's also those people like you said who don't have healthy enough immune systems to get vaccine, and so they rely on the everybody else the herd to be vaccinated to provide this immunity for them. So there are really good reasons to be vaccinated. In addition to you yourself, being immunized against these things, yeah and you know, these things work better and homogenous population, and every time I see that word I wanna say homogeneous. There's unreason puts the british way of saying: do they say that way they probably do probably just to be contrary. Contrary anyone they work better and homogenous populations which there are not a lot of those still these days. Thanks to me, no people

integrating with one another. So when they do these catches, nations that we're about to talk about. They take all of that into account. Races, ethnicities, mixed races, stuff like that, and so you know, we ve been talking about the modelling and the math involved, it can get complicated but is really kind of simple at its base form. Don't you think? Yes, especially if you're a mathematical genius in a statistical with which I am not okay, but didn't abroad, Shropshire you, you can make a pretty good case that its understandable for sure the Ets is all based on the reproduction number. In relation to the size of the population basically year and that reproduction number they in the in the bears its pronounced are not its door with a. I guess: that's a zero ha yeah I'd, rather they are zero any day. The horse here are not, though,

for an infection is a number of people expected a contract that illness after come into contact with an infected person under the right conditions that they can contract itself less confusing way of saying that is the are not numbers the expected number of people that a contagious person is gonna. In fact right. So if you understand about a disease. If you know, for example, with the mumps that's extremely contagious, which means that it has a high are not because the average person walking around infected with the momssen contagious with the mobs is going to get something between ten and twelve other people infected with the mobs and then they themselves will be contagious, so them If the months has a relatively high are not reproduction number. So if you and

in that about the moms. You can calculate how many people in a population have to be immunized against the months too, to prevent it from transmitting with. That population and like Risa, there's a lot more math to it than that, but ultimately, for the months in today's modern heterogeneous populations that the railway saying when her nobody says heterogenous soothing. That sounds way too close to erotic. It sounds like something I would say so today's modern society was put it like that? Yes, you need to have about ninety five percent of any given population immunized against months to reach. What's called the herd, immunity threat hold that heard immunity threshold is basically what I just said. It's the percentage of the population that has to be immunized for heard immunity to kick in to cover everybody else

and I know that everyone's going, what about covered? What about covered? What about co businessmen Oh you wanna, not even say you went away. Ok, I was fine, that's fine, but what about this was take a break. Oh my god! This is just a cannon after the break Willa will dive into the stuff later, but right, if the break will give you sort of what their thinking as of today, when we record better, Yes,

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By today to take advantage of this exclusive offer sinned in when you are ready, gotta legacy box, dot, com, slash stuff and say forty percent, while supplies first. all right, I that was an unfair cliffhanger. And keep in mind, like we kind of learned, then we need is going to happen with our covered nineteen podcast. It was out of date like days later, and this will be out of date because her sister much we don't know yet and were learning so much every day and every week, but I've seen the range from sixty to eighty percent as what they think the immunity threshold needs to be for us to have a pretty successful heard. Immunity right. That's the current thinking

I saw as well that they think the reproduction number is somewhere between two and three. I think, as a two point, eight is like the most widely touted for covered nineteen for Korea, then thankfully I mean. Can you imagine if it was like a mumps level right? You know. That's, especially with the fact that there is such a thing is asymptomatic carriers who can walk round of their people. If that was that much more contagious, it would be yet it be pretty rotten like eight as bad as it is. It could you'll be worse, epidemiologically, speaking yeah, and here's where we should also point out that just like we're talking about heard immunity. But if we reach heard immunity that doesn't mean like everything is solved. If we come up with a vaccine which we will vaccines art a hundred percent effective against every single human, so things can still happen, then sometimes you get it and immunization that's effective for a short time. For a few years, maybe yeah, there's a

an outbreak of diphtheria in Russia. Ninety ninety four Emmy, like tens of thousands of people, fell ill with diphtheria and they were all stall adults and they went back and the reason why this happened was because those adult hadn't been given booster shot for their diphtheria inoculation and searched it. So there ain't there une response there, Anna Bodies, that they built up when they were children having been given this diphtheria vaccine head waned and if they waned enough, that dip area was able to kind of take over and and causes outbreak, and so, when you look at it like that, that's almost a really good analogy to herd immunity. It's like over time, the the the that threshold can be can be can declines. That the virus, the bacteria, can get in same thing on the individual level. If you dont get a boost, her shot, if you need it for some facts

you dont need, I think, measles Momssen rubella are all considered too, for a lifetime immunity. If it doesn't work on you- and I think those are ninety seven percent effective. So very nice seven out of a hundred people, when you get an M M, are vaccines kid, you don't need any kind of booster and you're gonna be immune to it for life right, which has great. It is that's. The point of view, yeah, and this is where we need a dip Arturo into something. That's called vaccine hesitancy, that's that's what the official name for it is and this is a situation we have I'm not sure about other countries, because they didn't do a lot of research. That, but here in the United States, especially certain parts of the United States, there are Maxine Maxine exemptions in place granted for philosophical purposes, religious purposes, personal reasons. It is important to point out here that personal reasons get

the press like when you see articles about anti vaccines is people that choose not to their child vaccinated for certain reasons, but that the largest percentage of people who don't get vaccinated very sadly, it has to do with finances in and poverty right I mean like gets its. If you want to vaccinate your kid you can't, because you don't have the money or they're not available to you. I think in rural areas have a much lower vaccine rates. Think kids in urban areas. That is really sad, and I think that something that because it such a public health success, It should be something that much more widely available. Anybody who wants it yeah. Here's some numbers on that. There was a study by the CDC and when he, seventeen that noted the percentage of children without any vaccines had risen to about one point three per

and these are kids that were born in the year two thousand fifteen and then they compared them with the two thousand one survey they found. It was just point three percent of children between the ages of nineteen to thirty five months. So basically, they looked at the numbers and they found that the children who are uninsured or live in rural areas, like you said, or maybe had Medicaid insurance. A seventeen point. Two percent of the Unbox native kids were uninsured compared to two point: eight percent of overall kids right. There's a big death This is a huge difference sure and then there are like you said: there's parents who forego vaccinations four person, reasons or religious reasons or philosophical reasons, but I dont understand what the differences between philosophical impersonal near Magri. I wanna be interested to find that out, but the young

people who don't vaccinate their kids for whatever reason I, who make a conscious decision not to our tend to be viewed as freeloaders, and I suggest us like throwing shade. That's, like the term that that is used is freeloaders, their freeloading on the larger heard to prevent from being exposed to this disease or these diseases, or viruses or bacteria, because their depending on other people, too immunized their kids through vaccination instead that right and there's another weird phenomenon- that's happened here in the: U s that, where a vaccine programme is so successful, yeah that generations will go by without any of this disease, so not even familiar with it. So it's sort of absurd in this way that it's been flipped but

one of the reasons. Sometimes you will hear certain to not vaccinate as like what that old disease. I have that we haven't seen that in two hundred years right and I'm gonna- put vaccine in my kid and cycle here, because the vaccine worked right, it's a victim of its own. Says the value, Phoenician programmers, and I think that from what I can tell that's, how public health officials typically explain: anti vaccine herb declines in vaccine rates among people who consciously choose not to that? Basically, they just haven't seen bad disease is like you haven't seen what polio can do to somebody, because you, born into a world war. For all intents and purposes, Polio just didn't exist, right and so

you lose their incentive that somebody who is aware of what polio can do the incentive that that person has to vaccinate their kid and then, when you couple that with questions about a vaccine or fears that there are some negative side effects from a vaccine bright, that disincentive or that lack of incentive becomes a disincentive to get there. And so there's is ironic circle that develops where those vaccination rates go down. We dipped below the herd, immunity level. There is an outbreak of the disease and in the very people who led to that decline in vaccination levels, point to that outbreak, evidence that vaccine that were working for heard, immunity, doesnt work and India, it some

is our direct your head around? It is very hard drive you had rung, especially if you are fully on board the vaccine in dumb heard immunity through vaccine trains. It can be fairly galling. I believe. Yeah and there's a couple of things. A couple of big challenges to hurt immunity in whether or not it can work today and one of them is that we can get on an airplane with our family and we can fly great great distances: get places really fast and then come home again really fast, and this happened in two thousand eight. With the outbreak, in San Diego, there was a family that went to Switzerland. The this little boy picked up the virus of the measles. While he is in Switzerland such a bad little boy, he was, he puts it here so naughty he he was on vaccinated. He got sick when he got home. He infected eleven. Other people,

including one who was an infant that was too young to be vaccinated year. They got just a few- were like ambivalent about this right through that that little do here and at four They were like what is going on here, this weird outbreak, because we have ninety five percent the threshold here in Santiago. Ninety five percent against them. Those four heard immunity and it will end. Thousand, it was declared eliminated, basically all over the country, and so they started to kind of poke around this case. Said our aid San Diego doing great, but this kid actually goes to a school in his localize. Social group is about seventeen percent of them at the school. Don't vat Tonight so, while the city was doing fine, his little local community had a pretty high percentage of non vaccinated, kids, and so that allowed it to spread right. It allowed it to spread. Those kids became

you know they became ill, but then they became immunized to the measles, naturally from being exposed to an having fallen ill. But the big problem is in addition to the fact that it is kind of ravaged this hyper local social group. There are other parts within the heard that probably bear a striking resumed, the resemblance to that social group and those social groups come in contact with the other social group. That's been infected, you can of an epidemic within the larger immunized heard, which you dont want. You want bright people to be protected, but these the decline in vaccine rates and the fact that we can travel

you're saying so easily. Not only does it mean that, like a virus or bacteria can travel just as fast on on board a human whose on a plane, it also means that there is constant fluctuations to the percentage that heard immunity threshold because of the influx and out flux of people who were vaccinated or not vaccinated, bright- and this is why those vaccinate vaccination rates being high is really important because it spreads protecting everybody. Yes, you want a large public by into the concept of vaccinations and when there is not a large public by and then you're

heard, immunity is under threat and everybody who is bought in is is at risk because, again, you might say, will who cares if you, if you ve, inoculate your kids if their immunized against measles? What do you care if somebody else's kid, isn't because they have personal reasons against it? Your kids find their inoculated. Don't forget that with the measles vaccine. I think it's like ninety seven percent effective in that. That means that if there's a hundred hundred kids in a room and one of them has fallen contagious measles, which again is very contagious, like the mumps in its contagious three of those kids who have been accelerated are possibly going to get the measles from that kid, even though they were vaccinated because their body just didn't form the the right immune response or not

van immune response that they be protected if they were exposed to that kid. So it is a problem for even people who have been vaccinated against diseases to have a decline and heard immunity, and then also don't forget the people who don't have an immune system that can allow for them to be inoculated or vaccinate right, and the elderly, who are just by virtue of being older, more susceptible to a really hard bout with whatever disease it is their being exposed to yeah. I've been running up against that that frustrating sort of circular now logic about carbon night I am a member of a facebook page of a boy era. In more rural Georgia. That's all I say you could just stopped at a facebook page. And there has been a lot of that same sort of circular logic of woe.

These models are turning out to be wrong. They weigh overstated. Everything could look at the numbers falling and psych. That's because we social distance in because we did all this stuff right away make it work. That's how modeling works. Like the initial numbers were. Really high, because that was just sort of the starting point. That was the input data it was here we are at the beginning in this can happen this way and Americans got together by and large at first at least, did the right thing, and so those numbers went way down in it. Worked and then they are using. That is proof of like will see the modeling stress off their just guessing yeah. I saw them coming Bulgaria, a mile away. Of course, I just some yeah, it's everything's political huh, yeah and I'm just gonna have traded I've tried to avoid it, but I have also commented at times like modeling is not guessing it is there is. There is real research in math. It goes into

and in that math changes based on the input data like in a month. There will probably be different numbers and is not go there, guessing in their wrong right, there it's that distrust and expertise that has really can erect things quite a bit yeah. Alright, let's talk about what's going on right now and how this applies to our situation, the day, with the twenty twenty novel corona virus covered nineteen color, whatever you want or wait a minute, I think we should institute a tradition in this episode where every time we're about to talk about covered, we'll make it a cliffhanger and take a break: ok,

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Josh and chuck our age thanks fruit playing along with me. We're gonna have, like fifty add breaks in here, because we're gonna stop every time before we talk about covered, yeah. So what we're dealing with now in the most recent days in a couple of weeks is a new sort of divide has emerged. Every one got together at first, it seemed like, and there was a lot of unity for five minutes, and then dividing line has now formed in them and the United States and kind of in the world, depending on what your view is on how to best handle this in the two sort of routes are and we'll talk about specific example, examples of different countries and what their

but there's elimination and then there's heard immunity and vaccinations and not by not pooping. You know I mean pooping by elimination and getting rid of it of the of the virus, but not like grouping not by pooping, but we're talking about a few countries in particular area, one song about Sweden right now, because Sweden compared to the rest of the nordic countries, the rest of Europe and most of the rest of the world, I was country that was like. You know what we are going to say. If you feel sick stay at home, if you're at risk may be, at home, try and keep a safe distance from people but bars or open restaurants or open no big concerts, or anything like that.

Let's try and get that heard immunity going instead of shutting everything down right, so they're they're pursuing a mixture of like social distancing guidelines, but nothing, that's being super enforced aside from in others. Gatherings, like you said, but ultimately Pursuing basically is a strategy of heard immunity, while trying their best to keep the curve flattened right, and I think we're pushing this one out sooner. So this will just be out like this, five days from now, and all these numbers are gonna be changing, but the jury's MR still out whether or not that working in Sweden as of a couple of days ago. They have a far higher infection rate than their nordic neighbours? de I mean it's a little lower than some other countries to the south, so

we just, don't really know yet, because the jury is still out. We dont know what are our percentage needs to be right. Now, like I said it could be his eyes, eighty percent, so we Don't know as these numbers command over the next month or two can be really telling this kind of either way slice it. It's not right to say I will look at Sweden and if it is, if it works there, there this is gonna work everywhere cause that's just not the case. No big in Sweden has led consistently beat. This trend like look we're not even sure, there's gonna work for us, but were willing to try it, but were far likely to be successfully something like this, because are population may be is a little more collectivist than some other populations are healthier, In America they are healthier. They has a big deal, a much stronger. I am more responsive healthcare system. They have

or homogenous population dont forget, which may mean that they could reach her immunity more quickly than some other countries that have less homogenous populations. Sweden is more, in this very also get as they also they don't have like huge mega grocery stores. Where there's a thousand or fifteen hundred people milling around all. At the same time they have like smaller shops and markets that serve like a the killers like corner in the neighborhood and they have a moray every few corners. So there's not tons of people The market at every given at any given moment, there's a lot of differences between swedish culture and say american culture. That's that is giving the swedes the confidence to try this, but even Stiller people in Sweden- there are like this is indefensible. Reckless. We can do this. We can't try. This is stupid and, like you said, There are some early signs that it is not going so well because compared to

Norway, Denmark and Finland. Their death rate adjusted for population size, is between three and six times the death rate of, though nations and those nations tried elimination, yeah, and I that the I don't? I don't think it was like the. I think you had been the head of whatever their cdc is said that there were surprised by the death toll. Yeah yeah and not in a way like they seem like really good people. So it's not like We never thought of this, but I think they were surprised if it is as high as it's been right and sows It is not the only one trying as India's trying it as well and they're doing something very similar

Sweden, they have a lot of social distancing guidelines but are also kind of hoping for natural heard immunity to kick in and they don't have much of a choice. There gray, they have like point five five hospital beds, so a little over half of a hospital bed per one thousand people in the country and forty four thousand ventilators, but that both Sweden and India are taking a strategy of saying if you're older, if you trying it as well and they're doing something very similar Sweden. They have a lot of social distancing guidelines, but are also kind of two and will let the younger population go out and get sick because they contain what better and may be less of a strain on the health care system and they'll be the immunized heard for the rest of the population. I don't of the strategies are going to work or not, but that's kind of like the mentality behind them.

Yeah- and there are other countries- I think in england- they gently, we're gonna to follow that model. And then everyone said no way balikh to that, and so they have got some stricter measures going Bela reduces the one place. It's really that the president there has been in office having since nineteen. Eighty four has called the stricter responses around the world mass psychosis. And he's basically like I mean they're having a full on military parade this weekend. Oh my and say in screw all this in Belarus as one of Europe's highest per capita infection rates, yeas leg have any of you even seen the corona virus and yourself I have it here: cheese. There was a guy on one of those that same facebook page. That said,.

I don't even know a single person whose had it Ella well, I was like well you're, you're, lucky sir, you should be thankful for that. These, like it's, not luck, could be something else: dot, dot, dot, psych stepping out of the only man. I don't know if I say hats off to you for being on Facebook grew purchase. Deeply pity you for being on Facebook group. Well, I saw too have to be because it had to keep up for some things? This is another part of Georgia, where a little little tract of land gotcha sea needs, Eliza, Nevada, squatting on yonder. Squatter, so so this whole

Immunity thing, there's heard immunity itself, as it has been controversial since, before they covered nineteen pandemic. Great the same people who question vaccines also question the concept of reaching heard immunity through vaccinations, there's like suspicion that year, officially suppressing the vaccine and your actually weakening the immune system, in that it's gonna set us up for this horrible problem down the road none of that bears scrutiny under logic, but today heard immunity as kind of reach. This controversial inflection point for a totally different reason and that the the people who are saying what we're going to opt for to try for Hugh, community now, rather than later so there and get our economy going again. What they're talking about is heard immunity without a vaccine right, big, big, big, different, huge difference, because

whether talking about is basically reverting back to the pre vaccine thing. Where was dislike I hope we get the herd immunity sooner than later in a lot of people are gonna die along the way and that's one of the big flaws of this argument. Going for heard, immunity right now, which is the going to be a lot of people who die as a result before we get to her immunity, because we don't have a vaccine, their good we're going after reach heard community through just exposure to this virus, just like in the old time he d YE, I was about to say, is as if we were living in ancient times and just sort of crossing our fingers right, so that good lots of death is as a big flaw against it. If, if the reproduction number four Sars Cove too is three has but if it has, if, if covered nineteen as reproduction number of three, let's say- and that means the hurt me

The threshold is about seventy percent, that's about the high and that anybody saying is. Seventy percent should stop that iris from spreading any more right? So, if that's the case, then I mean seventy percent of the population would be sick and I think a half to one percent of a fatality rate would mean that of the larger population point three five, two point: seven percent of the population will die, If you know that you can take just the populations of some of these countries that are dying this and say well, but you return immunity from Sweden out of your population of ten point, two: five million people about thirty six thousand to seventy. Two three and are going to die along the way, statistically speaking, that's the number that you can bet on yeah between one point, two five and about two and a half million in the: U S, and if you're gonna look at the world

population. We're talking numbers higher than the spanish flu, twenty seven to about thirty four million people dead. And that's, if you know we're not say like that's gonna happen were saying that if the whole world took the approach of just our atlas, to see how we do you know right an enemy like this. That's we're a virgin population- humanity, not just the? U S such Canada, not just the UK unto Sweden. The world is a virgin population to this virus, because its novel corona virus we have no one on earth has ever been exposed to this particular virus before so. There isn't any. Rebuilt in immunity like there would be if it makes another round a year from now right, so it just ferns viruses. Activity burn your way through populations like that. So you can imagine, it would spread pretty effectively and

if the fatality great really is a half to one percent, those numbers could be pretty real depending on what what measures we take to mitigate those like you were saying so: death, that's a big problem and also along the way we would be doing the opposite of flattening the curve by just letting people go out and getting sick to get things over with Yemen, we worked so hard to flattened the curve, and it worked in most of the Most of the United States, except you know these weird outbreak, since in smaller towns that didn't have enough beds and then later- and that's all been really really sad to see happen, but by and large we did thing for awhile and it flattened curve pretty well, but this would fat net curve right back up, and we'd be in that same like in a worse situation, then we were going in right. So another big one and then also to agree infection is another huge fly.

We don't even know if Sars Cove to which causes covered nineteen, how fast its mutating If it's like other corona viruses or other flew viruses. It probably has a lot of words called Anti genetic drift, where it mutates really rapidly and creates new strains that the anti bodies that have built up this immune defence against one variety are useless to fight this new variety right, yeah! Some diseases! Don't do that like polio. The reason our polio vaccine has been so successful is because it doesn't mutate. Very much doesn't caught, it doesn't create. New strains were corona viruses. They tend to do that alone. Is a real chance for infection. So this heard immunity will just be like this on

wing thing until we can come up with a viable vaccine that can they can protect us from basically any mutated variety of this corona virus that right and antigen adrift drift. Do. I need to say it now. You dumb greater greater latter, oh yeah, Chuck, I think he has enabled rip up and for sure that that muted trumpet thing that they got on with the thing called on a trumpet that They make that sound with oh yeah, the pleasures. There, the muffler the the thing yeah you're on the trolley- So the other thing that we needed centre, and that is the other sort of way that can go about this- is elimination elimination that we are talking about not plan, not pooping, and that is the opposite sex.

They can that's what most of the world has done, including the? U S, which is self quarantining, isolating too They contain the virus. Closing borders. Mass gloves all that stuff we have flattened occur for the most part. Other countries. Have come close to elimination of New Zealand is getting a lot oppress because they, and you know they go out again. You can't say like well the same thing it had been here in the: U S, because newsy and is very isolated place in its smaller population, and they have super smart elected officials and smart people who listened to those elected officials. Our rivers is good, guess, swords over there and no man someone come at me. New Zealand Prime Minister is amazing. She's she's like one of the best yeah I remember, when we were there, we get a cab ride. You mean I did to the airport and this this guy. I think it is an immigrant from Sri Lanka in he just could not stop boasting about

how great the New Zealand government was now, how taken care of their population was how like hell Much of a sense of community the whole country had, and it was a really refreshing to experience. Yet it is maybe we shouldn't there anyway. So the thing about New Zealand yeah sure there's some people as you like yeah. What are to move their feel of it so much out. There's there's also Ways that are gone come on over we'd love to have you and others also, probably somewhere like please don't we ve had enough of it too. So what? Why worked? There, though? It was because, like I said they have, you have Have everyone on board and it sea like everyone on board on board in New Zealand- and that's just not happened here so yeah, I mean it really has worked for New Zealand, but they ve taken serious restrictions like you, you can't fly if you want to domestically, they shut down their ports. If you want to fly to,

Zealand ts for you, you're not gonna, get anywhere near the country. But in addition that, if you are a New Zealand citizen, you can't fly from one point to another. If you want to just for the heck of a right there's, so they really institute instituted some draconian measures, but it seems to have worked like that the report that came out two days ago on May forth. That says that the mob, was originally used to project. How many cases New Zealand was gonna have said that they're gonna get something like a thousand cases a day if they did nothing like no lockdown measures. All leave head since March is fourteen huh, Eighty seven cases not a thousand a day, fourteen hundred eighty seven cases total and they only had twenty deaths. So, it seems like an elimination, can work and for the reason a lot of people are a lot of countries has said this is what we're going to try and elimination just amounts to hiding out

from the virus until a vaccine can be developed. The problem is, there are serious flaws to that too, depending on what kind of what kind of government and culture that you have, but even without that, depending on that, it requires that everybody act basically perfectly and avoid everybody else and give up your job. Give up your economy in wait until somebody comes up with a vaccine, and that can be a really pricey costly measures, here, which is why a lot of people are like this. This we gotta find some other way here and there, put it down. There are like ways you can look at the countries and decide whether or not people are gonna comply or not. There was some cultural data. There was a company called Hoff, steady insights,

and they look at things like individualism of a population, basically like whether or not people getting all go along of people like hell? No man, I want my freedoms, I'm an individual, I'm an american and you can't tell me what to do and you might not be surprised to learn that in Sweden have a rank of seventy one out of one hundred as individualism, the! U s where's. Ninety one out of a hundred, so basically ninety. One out of a hundred would be difficult to maintain in these kind of restrictions. For too long I mean, if you look at it like that, it's remarkable how its remarkable heartening how much people have given up individually it is for the greater good in this guy endemic in the United States. Then, like I hadn't, looked at it. That way. I just kind of sir like ninety wine and thought. Ok, you know: that's, that's that's as a high

score. There's a lot of individualism in the United States. We gotta individual streak like nobody's business right. Yes, it is Look at it almost like it's a it's a percentage of the population that will listen in in situations like this, then it really does Kenny to show you how how much of a sacrifice people have made, not just America's on a one to say it like that, like if you're in a collective society, you're still sacrificing for the greater good is possibly a little more culturally ingrained in you that this is the thing to do. Do you either way the idea of people, people sacrificing for others, as is its heartening? The problem is, as people can only sacrifice for so long, and yet all you have just massive economic drawbacks, and in that's the thing. So if you follow the forced heard, immunity, natural heard, immunity strategy toward covered nineteen, you will results in a lot of deaths. If you follow

the elimination strategy, it results in a tremor This amount of economic hardship and it's easy to say, chalk like well lives lost, tops economic hardship any day, the weak and ultimately, yes, it does. It's you really should not under state that the toll in human misery of economic hardships and how bad this has gotten for some people are how quickly yeah, and the other thing I'll say too is one of the arguments have heard. Is that you know there to be so many deaths from people who were who are depressed because they can't go out and people dying by suicide, stuff like that, which you know they want to minimize at Cosette. That for sure, has an impact on people, but I saw a tweet from a guide. Talking about. Can we just stop pretending our former world, of like working fifty hours a week

in commuting and stressful environment and hectic crowds en masse. Concern tourism in pollution, and everything else was like a mental health utopia right yeah. So it's you know You got a kind of look at the big picture and not just pick and choose what you're gonna highlights cause. It fits your narrative. You know ye. I think one of the like the few good outcome, so far of this has been like a huge down shift in that manic, productivity, that drives most american GINO yeah and you know here's the thing is we don't know every is so new. We're not gonna sit here, pretend like there is only one right way like we. Don't know so there's so much that we don't know about this, as we don't know the exact right path forward yet, and I a population the medical community doesn't know the exact right path forward, where all trying to fit this out in real time and build

road is were driving on it or whatever. That expression is close, and you know, I have my money on staying at home slowing. Sit down and elimination. Other people might feel a different way, but it seems like that way is working better yeah. It is but again, if you still early and the data is still coming in. There was a report this week of a hundred New York hospitals. They found a sixty six per of new cases were among people who had stayed at home and mostly followed the elimination strategy so that this one this doctor, who wrote an article that I read: doctors, Stephen Philips, he said look man like in addition, they all the stuff that we need to be doing to handle this pandemic? Let's also create like a really robust data sharing yeah arrangement, so that weakens will look back a year or a few years from now and study this

say: oh actually, these countries followed elimination mixed with these social distancing guidelines or they followed the herd. Immunity pursuit and they actually came out. On top so that we will know the next time which one actually does work, taking everything into account. The costume lives, the economic cost, the cost in personal liberty and find the best way forward there are probably won't be a panacea where everything works, like one thing, works for every kind. Three year will have a pretty good model. Hopefully that can be adjusted to suit the individual country. That's adopting it. Hopefully that's! If we can get stop the arguing over whether this is even real or not. Here- and I know it's hard right now, but I think that the most dangerous thing right now is to have the mindset of well, you know what I'm pretty cagey in the weather's nice and I dont know anyone per who's got net, so undistorted, gonna eat

back into normality. Here I think that's that's when the second wave comes in things, get worse fully? That's if we can get past all the arguing over whether this is even real or not. You know. I find myself wanting to do things and it's tough on on kids, especially but I think it is more important now than ever to to keep up what's but we're doing yeah. We- and his magically wished the pandemic away. Then work now and lovely, whether you know take your walks get outside, do it safely, but that it is not a reason to be like well. That's old news now weakens like the way I saw a poster to fund it up. I'm sorry. We keep going back back and forth on this, but I saw a posted said. Easing of lockdown doesn't mean that the pandemics gone away. It means that they have a hospital bed for you now right exactly

You anything else, we got nothing else when our I well, that's it for her immunity, hopefully guys, learn something. I definitely did from researching all this and we hope everyone out their staying safe insane- hang in there: that's right, Since I said hanging in their time shock for listener. Male, I'm gonna call this thanks from England in a little shut out, hey guys want to say thank you. Thank you for your ongoing efforts with stuff you should now. It's been a welcome distraction at work. I along with so many feel like we know you guys so well with stuff. You should know and checks regression Josh's into the world. Podcast hope your family's remain safe and from My son dexter- and I we wish you all the best for yourselves and the future of the pod guess sorry ramble on which, by the way, but that was not really now, a concise beautiful but you're from when so you're very kind

sorry ramble on, but I was wondering if you would be kind enough to shout out all the UK in Asia staff that are helping us over here. In family that work for the nature, services the only way, I know how to say. Thank you so far sure been thank you deny them, but to medical writers all over the world who are working here risking their own lives, often with equipment. That's being reuse when it shouldn't be. And not gonna wait into those waters, but you don't while that you need to do your job right now in and that's terrible, and we should not be in this position, but we are so thank you. He also says p s torque way we're robot on this. You mention the other week and I think the Agatha Christie segment. We would pronounce it tour as Inter bus in key turkey.

It's always find a hero. Everyone pronounces these bloody silly towns. Overhear kind regards that is from been Cleaver and that Harrogate England heredity been there was such a good email that we are now friends. That's right! Thank you for that. There was much needed, man a lot for that, and we will very happily shout out the entire and ages and especially of the people who out there on the front lines working to save people's lives against covered nineteen or anything that happens to have befallen them. That's right, thanks again Ben, and if you want to be like banning, get in touch with us, whether you want to tell us to stop being so political or you want to tell us that you think we're great the matter, we want to hear from you either way you can email us by sending one to stuff, pug Did I heard radio dot com

Stuff, you should know, is production of Iheart Radios House of works for more podcast, my heart, yeah. I heard radio apple podcast over every listen to your favorite, show that word is taken on a whole new meaning the products we use every day, soup so disinfectants, things we take for granted are essential now millions of people dont have the essentials they mean. So Unilever is donating essential products they make like dove and Helmand to feeding America and direct relief, its of Unilever's national Day of service on May twenty first and they invite you to join them, get involved at. We are united for America, dot com,

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