« Stuff You Should Know

How Zero Population Growth Works

2015-04-16 | 🔗

In 1968, Paul Erlich published The Population Bomb, predicting coming famine and mass death. Erlich's predictions didn't pan out but his ideas launched a debate still raging today.

Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This podcast dynamically inserts audio advertisements of varying lengths for each download. As a result, the transcription time indexes may be inaccurate.
Hey, you're, all remaining and me are excited to announce that we are releasing our own podcast series. One fanned interview the band in partnership with, I hardly make sure to follow on each week as we choose one family come hang back stage and ask us quests check out one fan to interview the ban on the our heart, radio, an apple pie CAS or wherever you get. Your party is welcome to you stop, you should know. Greenhouse gas networks got what little broadcaster Josh clerk who strove to reach a bride. Instead, we should know focus very lively. It's pretty much. The nor yet
yeah you do, then. I feel it is a little rough sir. You make it through. Yesterday we celebrated the air, the beginnings of Jenin Tonic season deadlines. I can whether for short term then sit on the deck and citrus delightful drink nice going so slow sleepy, but I'm feeling good, I feel like this topic is all about being sorted down in the dumps a little veil depends. It depends on where you land in his place yourself pretty squarely in the gloom doom can't my friend now and I'm actually not in the doom and gloom can. I was about to say which, if I remember correctly in our efforts, Oda was Malthus right about carrying capacity ere. You overtly said that you are a an optimist. That's right, not malthusian, nay, Sayer
yeah yeah. I forgot about that. When we touched on this a few times we talked about, we did a whole profile. Norman Borlaug alone are very short lived in reasonably so live webcast a hooker tomorrow they basically book reporter Norman Borlaug yeah. He was them well, I think, he's even controversial. He is very much
So you know you wanna know about prize, but for saving a billion lived here, but still people are gonna put www near you get reproved, interesting stuff, so arm you know every time you might usefully press pause Gillis and do the mouthpiece episode good stuff. You should know that come slash, pod cas, I think it plural. Flash archive make your homepage and all seven hundred and change up so do there and then do controller observer doing so far. Here then type in the mouth is any l th? U s! It's gonna highlight that link click that and press play and then come back to us. The track, we'll wait them so so we're back
then an hour or takeovers carrying capacity. In part, the carrying capacity truckers is just kind of way it's a reflection of a larger issue and that larger issues, population specifically over population, and is that a thing or not? this question because I mean at any given point in time. You know they have like the the CIA World Fact Book has in a pretty good assessment of how many people are alive. Yeah, it's a total gas is a total estimate. Could be a ten billion right. Now we can be it a hundred million and everybody. This is really terrible. Accounting was appointed. We don't specifically now it probably pretty accurate sure, but it's still a guess. The the point is to shew holes in the air estimates of how many people are alive on the planet right to point out that, like there's so many people, we don't know- and we can't possibly know at any given point in time
has led a lot of people to say well, wait a minute. There's this thing called carrying capacity, which is the earth's ability to support and sustain us humans and really any any creatures, but really were just kind of concern with us. You humans, at this moment yeah and with a quality of life right and sustainably. Yes, those two factors have to be met, or else you're, putting a tremendous amount of stress on and you're eventually bringing about your own demise, so that people are saying like or probably pass carrying capacity. We just don't know it yet right or other people are saying there is really no such thing, as can capacity thanks to human engine Mary Rooney time we come up against. It figured out a way around it, Boylike was a way to go, but
Boil I really became famous. There is a lot of people who are legitimately concerned that we were all going to die. Yeah Borlaug. If you haven't listen to that one. If you didn't follow Josh's instructions like a good luck, I guess listener. He was the one of the leaders of the Green Revolution in the Sixtys and Seventys and wait we made great advances in agriculture. All then agriculture in an yields yet new new types of wheat and Mexico, new types of rice in India that yielded much much more than ever had and implicitly or drought Cynthia resistant. They could stand up in here, more green, they could stand up and say hello, they. Basically they could pick the date daily, double Hyalaea, so bored It was, you know, by our standards, a very smart guy. You uncared very much about
people. I wasn't doing for fame riches or anything like that like this day fell again working against the clock and if he didn't, He wasn't the only one doing this year is the most famous, but if he didn't do it, then yeah a lot of people are gonna starve, yeah, and I think I propose to you before this- that we do just one on the Green Revolution there and I think that will be the one to three podcast sweet I can't wait as when I love the stuff you through quality population thousand other home. We did too was how population works here, and it sounds like I bleeding Lee Boring, but it turned out to be really interesting stats ago, recovery that you won't wake a handbook and we're back and its nineteen sixty eight you're in everybody's a little nervous. Everyone is now send Stanford Biology, Professor Paul Eric there's, another famous boil it pisses Paul are air, like I believe, oh, if they differ, went well. There's two do I did not realise that
What do you mean? I mean I'm familiar with the other air like then I guess, while he was yet one again, he rode on some other famous book sees a biologist. I think it is same guy you're, the other guy was a german physician who worked in chemotherapy immunology area that I know they cannot get different guy. So this guy, he rode other things besides the population. Yeah, so nineteen, sixteen eighty rights, the population bomb goes on. Night show it explodes is huge. Yet, apparently, you are more than once the and everyone got super nervous because his book started with these words the battle the feed All of humanity is over how good in the night
Seven these the world were under will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death, in spite of any crash programmes embarked upon now. Let's not forget that's how he starts his book. He basically says: there's gonna be a malthusian collapse year at one point in the book. He said if I was the better man I would wager by the year. Two thousand England won't be here a round boom. He drops the MIKE yeah and we wish you Polly mentioned who mouthpieces Thomas Malthus was a very forward thinking. Smart mathematically, inclined, minister, I believe in the early nineteenth century lay eighteenth century, an economist he was the one who said we have a problem here: everyone I've just done the math and population grows exponentially, but our food supply grows linearly.
And so we are destined the Algarve food supply and that's where the idea of carrying capacity came from some malthus. A malthusian are the people who think like we're going to exceed the food supply eventually and die from famines, and like was one of the most vocal and alarmist neo Malthusian around yes, absolutely and he's scared the pants off people back then in eighteen, sixty eight there are about three and a half billion people and the birth rate. We're gonna talk a lot about birth rates. In such there is a lot to do that. Go up to the american women had three and a half babies on average and the global birth rate was five. Babies for woman seems like a lot to me,
it was a lot of kids. Supposedly in the fifties, we were six the global average fertility. I was six babies per woman and that's not just per woman, that you want to talk about fertility rates, so fertility rate basically is the number of live births that of population has assigned to the population of women thought to reasonably be a reproductive age of fifteen afford. Fort right times a thousand. So you take all those figure out the the how many women there are and then you multiply it by a thousand. So you have something like fifty births per
one thousand women aged fifteen forty four and that your fertility rate. Yet ok, that's you can figure out how many actual births are taking place yet with reasonable detail. Yet so, like Malthus elected the mass in the sixties and said, you know what our food production isn't keeping up. Just like Martha said where big big trouble wrote the population bomb in cofounded zero population growth, which is an organisation that has now called Will they got their population connection, population, connection, Bavaria and we'll sunny are central company does and you should check other website. It's got their lot to get information on yeah, just to help you in a figure out what you might want to believe
So people are scared that the the zero population growth group, their aim is to their big thing is: is contraception and giving women control of their reproduction? Basically, in their fertility right that, like that, you decide how many kids you want exactly em, they have that many. They ve done a fine thing that there is an issue that could easily addressed overpopulation and that is cutting out unwanted pregnancies or pregnancy. Having unwanted kids. They ve identified that you know plenty of people. There are two different fertility. Its theirs. They wanted fertility rate and then there's the unwanted fertility rate very much across the board.
In any country in the world the unwanted fertility rate is higher. Whether slightly are largely the note wanted fertility rate, so they're saying like if the unwanted fertility raise a three point. Eight year, babies per woman in a given country and the want of fertility rate is two point five well. If we can disregard away to only have the wanted pregnancy is right, then you
You know lots of control over population and the way that they figured out how to address. This is to just basically spread awareness and access to contraception, yeah right that the two pronged approach. What their goal is that they aren't saying that people should not have babies. Like you said there thing people showing have the baby's that they want to have exactly and their their ultimate goal is to arm to have a sustainable global birth rate below the replacement level remains, there's lots of different factors, but it basically means that the world is not growing when it's like. I work in a club that is, that a door doorman one person goes out. One person comes India, yellow, Clicker,
That's basically what that means is, you know, someone dies. Someone can be born. Right, of course, is not that one, the one, but you know my fear, that picture way if you're about sir and your tasked with keeping it and even ratio, he's have to remember that you can't keep people inside until a new person comes long, because that's called kidnapping you still. They still, I believe in you have to deal with an imbalance for a little while that's true right now that replacement level fertility rate in the. U S is two point: one babies for women and three point: zero and other developing countries, because they have higher death rates and shorter lifespans, which makes sense we we were under their replacement right basically right, yet the replacement rate is the number of kids. A woman of reproductive age would have to have to replace herself and she's, not just replacing herself she's replacing herself and her male mate who she's report
Let us give her baby, yes game, it's kind of gross to think that a woman is giving birth to a boy and a girl who can make every producer. That's not the point. You want them to go mingle with other peoples, babies, but the replacement. You think, then, is to write for every woman. Two point: zero kids is what you need to have to have it in every place: merit that means as people die. New people are born and the population of regret. Or declines. It stays the same. The replacement rate is never actually to point. No. There was two point one right now. The reason? Why is because we humans tender, more male offspring, thin female, apparently, for it One hundred girls that are born one hundred and seven boys are born, so the actual replacement rate is two point: zero, seven and they round at the two point one yet posters, I mean there's a lot of other factors to for sure yeah, so does it
actors include things like you said, like em infant mortality rates, yet lifespan immigration and to a certain area- and the thing is this: of birth rates are fertility rates and replace my rights. The replaced Marie tends to be a little more stable, yeah. The the birth rate, the fertility rate has a lot more to do with social attitudes, access to health care, education, and it can change dramatically from place to place, whereas say anywhere in the western world, the developed world. They replace merits about two point one yet exactly that in the year the three point over the developing countries of the Maghreb. First stood up so clearly Erlich was not correct and his dire prediction Gisela here. We are,
twenty fifteen and there are problems, but England still around there wasn't bad, but addicts in four billion people haven't starved to death near, but does that mean that he was wrong altogether no, not necessarily because right now- and this is a pretty startling staff to me. Over the past hundred ten years, we have grown from one point: six billion people to seven point two billion people in a hundred ten years were expected to get up to nine point two in another thirty five years, thereby twenty fifty one of the reasons we have this many people. Most of the reasons are positive because of white advances in health care the lifespan in nineteen hundred was thirty one years old, and now it seventy or maybe a little bit higher costs out two thousand twelve year, so measures over higher and the infant.
Mortality rate globally in nineteen hundred was a hundred and sixty five deaths per one thousand. My birth in in twenty thirteen was down to thirty four. So that's why there's more people ask as we're doing better taken care of herself yet and that desert to huge factors when it comes to? graphics and population, because, though, the longer you live, the more all people you have so. Therefore, the lesson because you need to replace those people and the fewer babies that dire that survive, infancy, we'll be adults Wendy exactly here, but the thirdly, to really a few demographer. The sweet spot is their working age. Someone. Demographer especially wanted Economics Minded Chuck. Yes, that's sweet spot, the reproductive working age, people, that's good, sizeable population. Have. If you have a lot of babies. Well, then you have a lot of people who are raising those babies
these are dependent on, say you have fewer women in the workforce, say your work forces depleted. You have a lot like an aging population. You have a lot of older people already aged out of the workforce in and dependent on the taxes paid by the workforce. Yes, so a large population of either babies are all people in government. Both at the same time it puts a lot of strain on the middle. Here. You know them censure, so when you have a longer life expectancy and a
lower infant mortality rate like we have now in the developed world. You wanna have something closer to the replacement right right. You know which makes sense, but I get some more stats to that would seem to backup airlines. Predictions are not predictions, but at least his gloomy outlook gloomy do currently you not confined much of what he felt today. I am curious is still around I'm curious about there's some good interviews and check that up. You know it will posted on the website is now we're posting links yeah to like research that we do not have you should know that can't you great length on that and the pack has paid for this episode gas. So currently, as last year, an estimated eight hundred and five million people go to bed hungry every night, I'm more than half of which an Asia one in four people in some in Africa was chronically malnourished.
Seven hundred and fifty million people worldwide lack access to clean water, contributing to about eight hundred fifty thousand deaths per year. And dumb here's the thing those who were living in cities now more than ever right people are moving it cities, which is a good thing and one way, because it provides a lot of opportunity, economic, economic opportunity for people, especially in developing countries. But when you look at these cities, a lot of them are full of slums and sweatshops gardens in these developing nations. Thing, like gum, half of the population in a lot of cities live in slum conditions. Yes, weather after that, the one percent right, so you think Sub Saharan Africa. I think whirl lot of way right. So, yes, I'm aware that they they lack access to clean drinking water and that's an issue that Sub Saharan Africa faces. Yes, you dont think about there being few in a city, but the problem with slow
There is a very rarely have access to clean drinking water in the exact same way that places like Whirl Africa have the same problem in we're. Not even I mean that's, clean drinking water and like sanitation and shelter we're not even talking about education and health care. I, unlike all the things that people need to live a fruitful life. Yet so cities are a problem. Even if Eric was wrong. There are clearly issues. Some people argue and we'll get to the critics and stuff later, but a lot of people argue that its distribution of food and stuff, like that, when we have the resources, where does not dividing it out properly gray and apparently, if I read if everyone live like an american and consume like an American does near the carrying capacity will be something like to build,
so we would have already far exceeded it sure, but if everybody live with just the minimal amount that they need to live, the carrying capacity would be something like forty billion we ve been able to sustain the and capacity as it is right now, because not everybody like an American here, but if you're an american that means that the other world spice the developing world. Thanks, I you're over consuming the ILO and that's really evident in them there, a God, They wonder I recently that shows water used in agriculture by type of product, so everything from like sway to beef it showed how much water area did you see that I didn't see that, but I've seen stuff like that? Beef is like a huge consumer waterway. A hundred and thirty three point, two eight gallons of water used to produce one ounce of beef yeah, that's lot that's a lot of water and so that this part of the point here if everybody's in apparently in China and India in these ascending countries, with a sudden
economies, one of the one of the great benefits of being part of the developed world, you can get stake anytime. You want baby. I want a big one right now. Put it in front of me I'll give you some might hear here just take this in and put in your pocket money for during my stick and you don't care how much water to appear ended there. These People who are saying they are, they necessarily agree with air like but they're saying he wasn't, totally off right here, alarmist elderly, their problem. There saying this is one of the probable right. You know this is one of the problems with too many people. Yes, getting back to to contraception and zero population. Growth are now the population connection. There big goal They say there are two hundred twenty two million women in the developing world you have an unmet need for family planning. So they're not saying you know, wanna put our ideals on you and you should be having kids they're saying there.
Many women that are like I dont want these five kids. I would have wanted to an I'd either. Dont know about contraception. Don't have contraception, or I have literally no idea how conception works right, sadly, for a lot of them, I should say a lot. The first idea that women need access to contraception, yet they were here they're here in their they're working on that writer, but they found in study something like ten percent or less of the women who are defined as having I met contraceptive needs site, a lack of access, as to why there having unwanted kids. Here instead, there saying it's things like family pressure, societal pressure to have a bunch of kids. You're saying like not understanding, contraception or how conception works year. They say they dont believe that they need contraception. If you have sex infrequently or after birth. After I've had one kid, we don't need to use contraception anymore. Cat like
early, not knowing how conception works right. So that's a big educational hurdle that the population connection is trying to overcome greater they're, saying it's not just getting contraception. Women is educating them on how to use it s changing their social outlook, yeah change in culture, largely men. You now saying a word more babies, but like revolutionary road or something So we're gonna talk a little bit after the break about what the critics of zero pocket growth, have to say here's the thing. Giving money with Geico was almost better than playing pick up basketball, because there's always that guy who joined your game, He never passes the rock he constantly bricks theories and who completely
you and then put his hands up and say no foul, no foul with Geico. It's easy to switch. Save on car insurance? No, the vacant fake, an ankle sprain because you're absolutely exhausted, so which in save with Geiger it's almost better than sports. So we're back yet we're talking about solutions to overpopulation were not everybody thinks it's a problem. Yet some people say overpopulation is a myth. Yeah. They say that error, like any of its himself, damaged his own argument. Yet he got a lot of personal heat. Yeah still does because the language you used. It was so alarmist. Starting is book off with you now that we ve already lost in an area where we do, billions of people are getting
I hear and then not paying out saying that England can be around. In thirty years I mean yeah those putting a lot on the line. Sure, and so a lot of people said year. Your specific landmarks or are milestones were unmet. Therefore, your heart all arguments out the window yeah and some people believe that other people are like That's not necessarily true. That is alarmist, is well your heart, possibly a reactionary at least, but some people say I still learn agree with early because humans, what we can figure out a way out of any problem. That's right. Critics will say that humans are not parasite to the earth. We are the saviours of we are the ones that are coming up with these solutions. Like the Green Revolution, The longer lifespans in progressing medically to help people live longer at another saviours of earth
Having read stretching it a little bit, I think we're young attract a little too much to be called saviours of earth. Wild eyed guarantee there's a lot of people that think humans are saviours of her, sir, I would see us more is like homer with. To the lobster again in the salt, water freshwater, going to strike a balance, I would call my saviour of either the goldfish pinching at that moment used is keeping on both in stasis. How many times at the reference can she, the latest Polly, seven, seven, not bad one for every one hundred chose roughly other critics will say that low birth rates are no good for the economy, like you're too about earlier older people and babies. August low birth rates would, in effect that but older people are more of attacks on society than they are spending. Site and investors right, but in the same, in the same way, if you have too many babies, that's right tax, eventually that those babies will be a workforce. Yet I'll spend money, be ignored.
Play, so the baby boom the postwar boom economic boom in the United States, It's not coincidental that they went hand in hand the bunch of people having babies and ITALY. They grew into the workforce and they bunch of money in the eighties for the United States. Yet there It's also supported in developing countries more than seventy countries or categorize now is low fertility with the two babies or less per woman, and those areas are expected to make a big economic gains in the coming decades right because they are going to be people to spend money, Ryan being the workforce and theirs.
A few ways that the workforce and wealth in the economy in birth rates are all kind of tied together to get it turns out there. If you give a woman rights it to her own contraceptives decisions, the azure, the birth rate tends to. Inevitably Russia result in, and when that happens, it happens because Some women have babies and they want to when they dont have right to their own contraceptive decision there. Another reason is when they have those kind of its. They usually also have the right to education. When they enter I'm school they will tend to put off having kids, because once a graduate from though usually enter the workforce, and so just by nature of guinea, to the whole thing later on in life there having fewer kids as well.
And when you have more educated women in the workforce, your economy, a stronger too so directly and by proxy lower birth rates, are associated with a stronger economy. But again you don't want to get hello, because if you get to lower than all of a sudden, the generation before it started to taper off is gonna be bigger than the generation that working here if it costs fifty thousand dollars in tax money to keep them. Average retiree afloat say in the United States. Well that divided by a thousand. For as a lot easier to bear, then divided by a hundred people. The hundred working people- you don't owe me yet we have to keep up the old folks and keep him in state an oval team right. So If you're, if Europe, an economist, demographer, whatever everybody's The saying like you, you wanna get a country develops and you're gonna get him at the two point. One report ray and everything will be hunky dory from there. Yet
The other thing critic might say to Us- and this is what we are talking about earlier about the environment. The impact on the environment like we're, just gonna destroy our world with so many people. It turns out that impact carbon emissions are really tides of population growth rates in tied to per capita income levels by evidence that China, U S have some the lowest fertility rate right now and we are the worst polluters. So it's not because we have all these people right. It's because we're consuming too much as Americans exactly in a guest in China as well, which actually makes it seem. And nerve racking that sure, India and China, with these enormous populations, are starting to become wealthier and wealthier, because that's just going to make it even worse. As far as the environment goes, did you check out the population connection site?
No, I didn't. They were pretty interesting ethic you that if you dont. You stand. I mean it's helpful to read like they say things like. Instead of we want to focus on quality of life, not quantity, and instead of saying how many people can the earth support? Maybe how many people can the earth support, because, right now, all these people are dying from lack of you? No clean water and sanitation in food. Then there's the counter argument that you hear from critics a lot. I've seen this cat throwing around it the entire. Population can live in Texas. I didn't have black its mind boggling. I have trouble like believing it. Well, we think somebody forget you carry a one or something now. It's true population connection, says sure they can, you could fit everyone in Texas ethos of it. Forty people in a phone booth near by
taxes they said in no way as the carrying capacity to take care of those people. So it's a little bit of a hollow. You know fact that you throw out when you That's right. I treat and GM everyone in their taxes. If you like What are you guys doing exactly, but is pretty interesting stuff? I recommend people read their ethic. You seems like they definitely have. The right mindset is that what they want to do is you know me People have a good quality of life all over the world. While I will go either. I think you because I certainly feel under prepared, but I will tell you that impression that I have from researching them without going on their website. Was I didn't? anything like beware, population connection or the population connection myth or anything like that. There's deftly debate.
Other sign saying overpopulation is a myth, but no one seems to be attacking population connection is like a nefarious organization. Yet has earned a thing. We have babies, write a letter really sticky situation area because a lot of people like well God wants us to have as many better as we possibly can. Who were to be meddling in that kind of thing. It's it's a fine line that a group like that has the walk and they seem to be one Fine yeah, let's say like here's, some contraception, baby. Let's not have unwanted babies, let those little angel say in Heaven and all just go from there. I think, that's there on their homepage. Support for this podcast comes from pico pico is helping homes and businesses save money with energy efficient. Our deeds last up to fifteen times longer than traditional bulbs. Andrews up to eighty five percent, less energy, so they're good for your pocketbook, Andy Environment, LAPD's, coming all shapes and sizes.
And are available in a variety of light temperatures, It's warm lighting for living rooms, dining room in bedrooms or bright cool waiting for catches and bathrooms. There's an we d for every socket and for businesses Ellie can. You manage energy costs and your bottom line and reduce maintenance swap out your old. Both for Energy saving Ladys and get Stan savings as a pico customer stock up, while discounts and incentives last for info you can start saving today is a pico dotcom. Slash OECD are right, the behavioral think what? Where did you find this I don't remember where I ran across it, but I've read it a while back, but I have to give a shudder to Josh from Jersey, the original Jersey, not New Jersey. Who recently wrote in the suggest. We were doing episode on that in a perfect timing because he wrote in after you you'd selected this one area, and I was like these to a great again a hand in the Alps. Are things just for reminding us will? Thank you Josh for thanking Josh, which John
but thinking all the Josh's okay. So in eighteen, seventy two, this dude named John, be Calhoun. This is one of his experiments, this guy. What he liked to do was billed rat and mouse utopias he'd been doing since the forward here and basically with the aim to see what would happen to a population, in this case mice, rats, if you gave them fix mouse world right, any called these world universes yet, and the one in nineteen. Seventy two, the one that really like made. The headlines, I guess it was called universe. Twenty five, four under his bell already and it was pretty good sides. There was good over a hundred inches square. The walls were fifty four inches high, her head space. For, let's see, what's two hundred,
The six ten fifteen chuck I'm gonna go with about in my head. I say like that because the thirty thousand it is exactly thirty. Eight hundred gather cinemas, I'm in three thousand thirty eight hundred feet ok. So there was enough room comfortably for thirty, eight hundred and forty mice, yes, and long before there he introduced for breeding pair, so eight mice he first introduced the universe, twenty five yet, and it was well stocked by the way they had everything they would water that was cleaned out there. All disease free, no predators, Vienna. I fear he threw a cat in a distant even want to tell you something you having owes it was Heaven is what they called the s. Any actually didn't papers about these university. He would refer to them. Is Heaven her utopia and he would use words like that, yet so introduces these reading pairs of mice to arm the universe. Twenty five,
and dumb after a hundred four days. It took them to finally settled down and we like ok, this place is actually pretty great, yeah too good to be true bright, despite the fact that it seems to be built by whom, and which is weird and the temperature in everything and those by we're just gonna say it's probably find right and start breeding and they started breeding pretty quickly. Yes, they serve doubling and population every Five days after that, right yeah, like you said, because it was so great there they were dislike, hey, let's eat in, do it and make little baby mice like there is no end in sight, so you're doubling every fifty five days, This is all a big study to study what overpopulation I what would happen what he found time after time was that things went bad yeah, which is real,
Something because remember, Paul, early release. The population bomb in sixty eight, but for decades before that John Calhoun saw TAN the real problem was a the real problem. Wasn't overpopulation leading to city of food and conflicts, conflict source wars and famine, starvation. What he found was it the real problem was overpopulation itself yet, but just to a few many mice and not enough valuable roles for mice to play exactly so. There comes a point in any mouse population as far as Calhoun was concerned and again
the universe, twenty five and it wasn't making like one a weaker somebody's were detailed, you're, smart studies. He was hired by the National Institute of Healthy spent twenty or thirty years working there there's a bona fide legitimate researcher, and he would find that at some point the abundance would lead to overpopulation rather than scarcely like he, even though he never ran on food. They always had enough food and modern everything. What came to be an issue of space and social interaction? There are just too many people. There are too many mice. I should say ICE. There, people sure amateur, rubbing shoulders up against one another, constantly moving past one another, there's not enough room and, like you said, there wasn't enough. There were too many mice to fulfil the number of social roles, yeah needed right, yeah, says by day three fifteen to this is close to a year
a lot of mice are living in there and they said there were more appears to defend against. So males were stretched out and stop defending their territory. Yea abandon it said normal social discourse broke down completely social bonds broke down. There was like randomize violence for no reason it seem like the female mice. The mothers saw this and would attack their own babies right and It was procreation, slumped infant abandonment increase mortality sword. Then he talked about the beautiful ones which I thought was hysterical near. There are these male mice that just they never fought, they never sought to reproduce her have sex. All they did was eat sleep and groom and just sort of loafer round. Yet, so all these social barriers are completely being destroyed by the social norms. I should say yet in these the the female
it could reproduce, went off by themselves, sequester themselves away from society and the males they were capable of reproducing became those beautiful one year and didn't seek sex either so over time they lost our ability to carry out these complex social interactions that lead to reproduction and they just stopped reproducing in general year by day five sixty- and this is why I guess it's that caused the to your mark. Well, I guess he might they had twenty two hundred mice, and then growth ceased yet, which is even close to the thirty eight hundred and four, and that this place could conceivably hang onto yes allows. But how many was it? Thirty, eight hundred thirty eight forty, yes, twenty two hundred, they stopped reproducing very few miser bypass weaning at that point. The beautiful ones were still secluded the females they they basically call this the first death, but to death
did specifically by social death, essentially exactly like the death of the Spirit, the death of the society here and then eventually the physical death, the sex, death. He had the one leads to the second like. There is a point that you pass and he came up with a great name for it called the behavioral sank near where the heating, I think they refer to it as the event horizon once you pass that it's all over right, there's no coming back from that, and once there's no coming back from that. Not only has your society collapse there. Does your society collapse, you you're population becomes extinct, cause reproduction becomes impossible here, even he found with pretty startling. He found that even after enough for the population dies off that a return to those ideal numbers of the early days in universe, twenty five or any other universes they still, though, that repression isn't start up again because remember social,
in bonds of broken down their semester to they can't even figure out how to reproduce once there is room for people enough again, it's crazy. It is so interesting. He said Adam. He wrote. He wrote this really kind of blockbuster paper called population density and social pathology and it was published in scientific American in nineteen sixty two and he said that the individuals born under. These circumstances will be so out of touch with reality as to be incapable even of alienation, while so that they can even feel like there. Connected to society. More because there's no society for than ever yeah connect or disconnect from its frightening really is in a lot of people jumped down. Listen said the whoa. What what's goin on because if you look at his data every time he ran this experiment. The results became the Saint Pierre. There was an abundance of resources it there is never scarcity population because
overpopulation once they reach the point of the behavioral. Think the population slid into extinction and on the way there was violence. Can tourism, like sexual ism yeah yeah, infanticide, just like all the horrible things you can possibly anchor, Oh right, you know on the way toward extinction, and so a lot of people said you know these mice kind of reflective of our society to think and Dumb Calhoun was. Can I go? I would say that probably correct. Yet there was a big boom at the time because this experiment in literature and movies, with a lot of doomsday scenarios, Tom off the great writer, wrote in the Pump House gang in nineteen sixty eight
he actually reference to the behavioral sank in in reference to New York City, and he said I got the it was easy to look at New Yorkers as animals, specially looking down from some place like about it, grand central. At the rush hour Friday afternoon, the forest filled with poor white humans running around. Dodging blinking, their eyes, making a sound like a painful starlings rats or something in there all these movies. Out there was one called jpg. With Oliver Red and Geraldine Chapman Chaplain. Those held Europe population growth yet like for you. Integration. The government said no one's life have baby a here's. Your robot baby heightened right now we're gonna have a real baby and they like it or not. I think it that in the end, but I'm sure, ended very poorly, I didn't see it either. I saw it on. I am the beta and, of course, of course, toilet green great great movie from the novel make room make room again. Here is in there
deals go badly new there's another novel called stand on Zanzibar and dumb there were people called Muckers who ran a mock in just suddenly went crazy and started killing. A bunch of people are now happens from time to time in the news tat a lot of people which were saying yet this stuff that Calhoun finding is clearly extrapolate a ball shrine to human society here and at that time too, there is a lot of discussion about what to do about inner city over population crime. Here, housing projects This is really great document, recalled the proof I go myth and it's about there is the approved. I go on projects in Saint Louis effort. It became a think we talked about it before, but it became like the arm. Fit the poster child for how no matter what you do for a poor inner city, people they're gonna, screw it up in its candidate
crime written in its them. It's not it's not, though there quality of life or education or anything like that. It's them- and this is this document which is totally Our wish is that idea, but it still want I deal here and there a group of policy vault policymakers who looked at Calhoun Research and said clearly we need we need to do something. There's there's too many people and there's a lot of people who don't have valley bull social roles in their turn into crime and everything that it was very much open to interpretation because Calhoun, even though he was putting these things in TAT like Heaven in Utopia and hell and behavioral sink in that kind of here? He was still this kind of pudding data out there, and it was up to the larger interpreted in a really said, a lot about your attitudes towards your fellow human. How you interpreted it by Calhoun self actually took something of an optimistic view of all this data, which is kind of mind. Boggling yeah, I was surprised
this? Actually, he makes sense if you think about it, yet he found it. Were outliers and that not all the mice descended into hellish violence in and loot, right and misleading. He found that some could actually handle this and what he called. The good had a high social velocity mice that well, with a lot of high number of social interaction is not me, and he said, I'm a type of aid, blood type blood personality tat. He said the basically these This will thrive, many sit and even the ones who don't what he turned. The losers found ways to be more creative here. Here is sufficient. Yegg, IRAN son your outlook, basically saying that man is essentially a positive animal and we will create and designer own solutions right in his solution was since it makes sense because he found that it's not scarcely
Your famines are anything that leads to trouble here. It's overpopulation itself in his eye, it was well. Let's go find more space and so he was a member of this group called the space cadets, which is a group of thinkers that we're trying to figure out how to establish colonies. Unlike me, cars are the moon or wherever right, which is exactly what Calhoun Point was that we just need more space right as long we can sustain ourselves, that's fine, but even if we don't stress agriculture, the planet or whatever we're still gonna run into problems, close go off to other worlds and terror form. Oh Anne. Did you see the thing about the wrath of name o was that taken? There is less inspired by the Suez based directly on his research. Are really in that clerical, MRS Brisbane, the wrath of name
years ago. I see them again and also go read the behavioral sink super interesting rather than article on cabinet by Will wiles yet informed a lotta. This episode. Yet this stuff is fascinating to me a agree because I seek Anna both sides. Clearly, there are some issues going right now enough, but I also think that there are solutions. The corner, I ultimately dont have a strong opinion either way, and I think, if I think about it, it's because I think humans will become in ingenuity. If he could have taken eight times media grasp, it only has evaded labelling. I mean that's why beef is.
Oh it uses so much because it eat so much food. That also requires water yeah right. It requires water like two times over at least dumb chaos. If you feel bad about estate consumption chuck, I don't much take good for you by discuss. Emily doesn't need beef, so it area you know, usually Alice Walker Chicken, because it's not like. I have a stake in Accra, chicken every now and then, but usually just easier yeah. This chicken comes in like a two or three back on track. Pause. You cook it until it's dry as a bone, so you can feel better about the water consumption right. If you want to know more about population growth and specifically, zero population growth, type, those words into the search bar howstuffworks dot com and no forget to go to stuff, you should know calm and listen to this episode and check out the extra great links on there too are in there somewhere it's time for listener mail this link with sticks up for us. Our I write you guys. I studied
with Dixon College Sort, always tickles me when you guys contains about words and language Recent mining is because I want to offer you a counterpoint to the language police. It had been harsh in your vibe grammar knight, sir. What we call in that is prescriptive lists who like to dictate how people should speak, Language, on the other hand, are descriptive. Is you make their careers out of how people actually speak in real world? situations I didn't realize. I thought linguists could be one or the other. I didn't realize that linguists tend to be descriptive, is what she says. What is some infinite? Just even faster Wallace yeah. He was a big time prescriptive. This really is a dragon crazed. Michael people should speak yeah yeah. I like that. There is a specific way that humans are supposed to speak and write right and communicate, and if you do get from that year,
Is that a human brilliant? You can believe that would be like the downfall of society are pretty much how come on. We dont use the terms good or bad grammar. Instead, we prefer standard and non standard we recognized the social functions of non standard grammars and observe their uses and functions rather than to try micromanage them. A final point. I'm certain. Your listeners still know what you mean when you say things like there's a lot of something, even if it isn't standard grammar and the laws of linguistics. As long as you're interlocutor, which is a listener, interlocutor interlocutor The ones understand what you mean you successfully communicated, and that's why humans have been in language. Isn't it so go?
the free and know that I will always love. You show, no matter how you speak in, that is from Kristen thanks Kristen the supportive linguists appreciate that that's funny that Chris Dimensions, that is easier interlocutor understands what you're saying you can creating correct leisure someone else at our member who was they wrote in suggested we doing episode in shorthand. Oh, it yourselves just talking about that within the last nine pm. It's all over the place. I succeed writing in high school and she was still very surprised that so in writing with hand, speed riding as I like stars. Stylographic knows. Right with your hand, it's basically a version of shorthand, but not exact shorthand got its kind,
shorthand. It sounds like shorthand but like more aggressive, yet MAX powers, and he had the joke. Was my french shanna onto your last name but ass? She would cheat and class because she didn't learn the shore and so the test where they would just read long passage quickly and you have to do. It in transcribed that into longhand. She was just super good at writing really fast, though she would this right down everything along hand, super fast and then figure added transcribe it back to shorthand and then back along here, and she got got doing that teaches stating it sounds like it seems like we can note
such speed writing this is writing fast. Yet, if you wanna get in touch with those either to show support criticizes, even something neutrals, fine, you can treat to us it s. Why escape? I guess you can join us on Facebook that complex that we should now begin Sanderson email to stuff package that has that works. I can't and is always trying to say, luxurious home on the web stuff. You should know dot com for more on this and thousands of other topics that are suffering Stockholm
How do I do all the different things I love, even though they might not make sense together. If this question sounds familiar, the limit does not exist from Iheart Radio. If a podcast, it's just real, I'm Cates got Campbell and I'm Christina Wallace. We want to help you follow your curiosity, celebrate your individuality and embrace the and not the or join us for concrete tools, real talk in conversations with inspiring guests who ve crafted their own interdisciplinary careers, whether its astrophysics and valet or theater, and technology. We believe the limit does not exist. Listen to the limit does not exist on the Iheart radio, app apple podcast or wherever you get your favorite podcast.
Transcript generated on 2020-01-14.