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A Last Chance to Avert Climate Disaster?

2021-11-03 | 🔗

In a giant conference hall in Glasgow, leaders from around the world have gathered for the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Climate Change Convention, or COP26. This is the 26th such session.

Many say this may be the last chance to avoid climate disaster. Will anything change this time?

Guest: Somini Sengupta, the international climate reporter for The New York Times. 

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For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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climate talks like these ever really accomplish anything. It's Wednesday November third place many. I was worse from one end of this joint conference centre to this quiet corner, I mad am. I got stuck in a screamed with, I think, John carrying coming on, I got stuck in another slum with. I think it was Prince Charles, but I'm not really sure That's a heck of a set of drums and me trying to squeeze in between south
the adventures of climate reporting. so I wonder if you could describe exactly where you are and what you're seeing all around you. So I want a giant conference centre in Glasgow officially called the conference of parties to the United Nations Climate change convention, so it's called cop twenty six. For short, this is the Twenty six such session there are plenary halls where the leaders are giving their speeches. There is a pavilion where every country can set up its own pavilion and the one from two below which has a Pacific island nation. I just walk past it
afternoon and they have these life sized polar bears in life jackets, it's become quite a spot for four selfies. I think we have a common on the metaphorical intent of that. I believe the metaphorical intent is that the ice is melting. The pole, bears, need to be rescued. Brain there's also a little penguin hanging from a noose above the polar Bears, a darker metaphor, yeah, pretty grim numerous has spread that Australia, the australian pavilion, is serving free coffee. So there's a long line. There is a dna, so that's gonna want it looks like I think those dark scenes you just described him tat we are at a moment when the climate is in crisis and display years and years and years of global talks, despite treaties like Paris agreement on climate change that come from those talks
carbon emissions have gotten worse, not better and extreme climate events are becoming even more destructive, not less, and so I think that for many people is what exactly is the point of a conference? like as haven't we learned that these global climate talks are not really an effective way to solve the climate problem. or if you can engage in that scepticism for a moment that conferences can seem like a lot of pomp and come stance and empty promises. There are some who would look at these climate summits and say look. You come together every year and you all make speeches and Thomas various things. They are all voluntary. They are not binding and, in the end,
you are not doing what the science demands, which is too pivot, really quickly away from burning coal oil and gas to limit the rise in global average temperatures, and so you you'd. The frustration that you here is this all a bunch of talk, and there is not enough action. Look at in. What's the optimist, Casey argument for seeing a conference like this as important as meaningful and ultimately impact full right. So another way of of asking is you know why bother when things are still mad? Well, the argument you will often here is precisely because things,
bad and they could be much worse is why you need a summit like this. The future is not pre written it up to the big path or countries that are gathered here to determine what kind of future is gonna be most likely. The point of this summit is full the leaders of this big polluter countries and for everyone else who is affected by climate change, to gather in one place to nudge each other to do better and to hold each other to account. The whole thing is built on this Diplomatic pressure, so with that in mind, these two arguments about this guy, What has actually happened at this conference? so far. I know we're just a few days into it, but they ve been meaningful days, so the conference began Sunday. away. The conference really began with this other
eating which happened in Rome and that's where the world's twenty biggest economies, the G20, which are also the twenty biggest voters, were meeting, and they were trying to come to an agreement on what they are willing to do to address climate change and actually took some incremental steps. Probably key among them was that they agreed to quota called pursue efforts to keep a very keen temperature threshold within reach, and that threshold is to limit the average global temperature rise to within one point: five degrees celsius. between pre industrial times and the end of this century, and what is our pledge matter so much for the physical familiar pledge? Well, that is one of the goals of the Paris agreement. It is increasingly important Northstar because after you get past one
point five degrees, the likelihood of the really really bad stuff comes up significantly. That's the scientific consensus and right now, by the way we are on track to rise by about three degrees celsius. So, after this meeting in Rome where they commit themselves to one point: five They all fly from ITALY to Glasgow Sylvia May I see your eyes by the time they re? there are protestors reading them, essentially saying that they are are doing a lot of talking and not a lot of doing and Gratitude Burg, among others, are leading chance saying enough of this blah blah blah
making these sceptics case for this conference right so that the summit begins with speeches start to say enough, enough of brutalizing biodiversity, of killing ourselves with carbon enough of teaching nature like a toilet, the secretary general of the United Nations. Antonio Gutierrez makes a powerful case ass of burning and drilling and mining go away deeper. We dig Our own graves says we are digging our grave by continuing to drill for oil and gas I urge you choose ambition to. Surely that is the truth, safeguard our future and save many too, and I thank you.
Good afternoon everybody welcome to cop Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of Britain, which is the host country. Welcome to girls. and to Scotland, whose most globally famous fictional son. is almost certainly a man who James Bond. Generally comes through the climax of these highly lucrative film strapped to a dubious day. Device does begins his speech with an analogy bag. James bond clicking time bomb we're after the same position, my fellow global leaders as James Bond today, except The tragedy is: this is not a movie Doomsday device is real. ladies and gentlemen, Joe Biden appears on the podium by Bill back better frame
or will make historic investments in clean energy. Mostly yet again, investment to deal with the climate crisis advanced nation is made ever harmlessness. Of course they re, three of the United States into the Paris agreement after President Trump pulled the country out of the Paris agreement, We have to help much more than we have thus far as you all, my God, save the planet. Like you, we also hear from small and very very vulnerable countries, your royal highness excellence. Is distinguished guests. Ladies and gentlemen, the Prime Minister of Barbados me a motley says the pandemic has taught us that national solutions to global problems, do not work. This is the moment for leaders of big countries to lead
do some leaders in this world believe that they can survive, thrive on their own? have they not learnt from the pandemic? Can there be peace and prosperity, one third of the world's literally prosperous and the other two thirds of the world live under siege and face calamitous threats. As I speak, guy urgencies We can always headed for storms, that sink us, while she would propose aboard through message gets gap. She knew also hear farm or of Fiji, Frank buying them are Roma. He said the existence of countries like is low. Lying Pacific Island nations are not negotiable. Dolly desire. The message of the Pacific is simple.
Canoe is sinking back up your buckets and start building now before it's too late. Thank you These are really reminders to everyone else in the hall about what's at stake, honourable gifts, this brings us to the end of the of our national statements. in this, and what are you thinking as her watching these it is especially from the smaller island countries. I've covered several international summits being by the United Nations like this one and it strikes me every time that this is where countries big and small, rich and poor, powerful and almost never heard If you are in the: U S, they all get the same air time. They all stand at the scene, podium they negotiate with each other. It is the ultimate platform for global
collective action and, in this case on a really really big and high stakes, global problem to this. Another argument for the optimists version of why these conferences matter as a realist, I can tell you that a summit like this, where the David's and the Goliath in the World you know, among nations, they sit at the same table the egg each other on the pressure each other. It's not a one way street. It's not the powerful pressing, only small honourable countries? It also the other way around and its, where the, or of really powerful big rich countries like Germany or the United States after here,
the leader of Fiji or the leader of Barbados tell them. This is your moment to lead a blame for things that have gone terribly wrong. That too, But of course the big question is: are those large wealthy nations going to actually act? Are they gonna make commitments and keep them in ways that benefit those small vulnerable countries? Precisely all the back This podcast is supported by Amazon music in a political climate. where polarization is off the charts finding. and ground often feels impossible in the new weekly podcast on common ground with Van Jones, news comes
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We pledge to cut methane emissions by thirty percent by twenty thirty, and why does that matter? How big a deal said it matters because methane warms the atmosphere super fast it, used in oil and gas operations and trash landfills and all kinds of things now we'll have to see how countries fulfil that pledge there and have to go back change, their rules and regulations, or maybe there are laws to actually reduce their method emissions. And notably their allotted to countries that are not on board with this, so called global methane pledge like so Russia is not on board A major oil and gas producer, nor is China.
Nor India nor Australia. Those are some pretty big gaps in that agreement. Yes, sir, some pretty big gap there look at what else. The other big global accord that we heard about today was a commitment to end deforestation by twenty thirty, so about a hundred countries signed onto this includes Brazil, which of course contains a big chunk of the Amazon, the lungs of the planet. It includes Russia, which has you know some really important. Big memorial
forests. It includes trader, but this is all a bit of a deja vu because in twenty fourteen world leaders promised to reduce deforestation by half by now, and they promised to eliminate deforestation entirely by twenty thirty, which is exactly what the accord announced today says. In fact, since that pledge, deforestation actually accelerated. So you know, let's see if second time around, and while leaders will actually keep their promise. So in theory, we should be quite sceptical of this pledge, because this pledge was in the past are not kept in theory, we should be skeptical of all pledges, because all pledges are vital. Terry and what matters is how they achieve those pledges gotta simply taken together. If kept, how would these to pledge
on methane and on deforestation. How much progress would that represent when it comes to one five degrees and keeping warming beneath that threshold, both from operating pledge and the deforestation pledge our significant but taken together. They are not going to be sufficient to reach the one point: five threshold: ok, so those are multi country agreements. What about individual countries? What kind of pledges promises? Did they make relating to one point, five degrees? There were two significant individual country pledges the first, came from the indian Prime Minister. Neurons are mouldy. He said India would significantly ramp up.
Renewable energy production and that by twenty thirty? Fifty percent of its energy max would come from renewable energy. This was rather vague with very few specifics and there is a lotta had scratching, but still a significant commitment by a big emerging economy to ramp up renewable energy sources? He did not, however, say anything about the main source of electricity in India, which is burning coal and he didn't say anything about India's coal use. However, on Tuesday from South Africa came a very important announcement about that, South Africa said he would begin to plot its exit from coal and announced a sort of transition plan. The reason why this is important Is that South Africa is the first big emerging.
May I say up we're gonna exit call, and this is how we're going to do it, and this commitment could send a very important signal to other emerging economies about how an exit from coal can actually happen. I'll get well what about China, the United States and Russia, three of the world's largest and biggest polluters. Did they make any meaningful pledges here? The United States had already sand early on the sheer soon after President Biden took office, it announced its national climate plan or its climate goal, and in it the United States said it would reduce by about fifty percent its emissions by twenty thirty compared to the emission levels in two thousand and five, that's pretty ambitious. The big question, of course, is: how is this administration going to deliver that target gearin
that it faces. Some pretty significant opposition still in Congress on it's kind of main climate legislation right we'll get. When I try to Russia, China too has already said that it would stop funding coal fired power plants overseas, which is a big deal, because China is the biggest funder of coal fired power plants overseas. However, China has said nothing so far about when it plans to get out of coal at home it consumes by far the largest share of coal anywhere in the world and China's updated climate plan. You man that different from its original climate plan, which is that China will continue to grow its greenhouse gas emissions until twenty thirty that's China. Russia has announced a rather vague nets
euro target by twenty sixty, but of course Russia has no plans at all too rain in the extraction of oil and gas from its territory. So when we think of the biggest pulled. It is the countries that so many of these smaller countries, like Barbados in Fiji, are looking to forbear to pleading to her leadership. At this conference, How should we be thinking about the president is our ambition of these commitments. They don't seem tat, impressive or em. fishes in their details, while in reality they are nowhere close to the one point five degree target right, so does that mean that this peer pressure model The purpose of these conferences is failing This, the sceptics version you know of the kind.
Since coming to pass well, what's best for a minute right, please, let's thought experiment and say well what? If there was no this agreement and there was no diplomatic forum like that, more countries, not each other to set, but our climate targets and report back in submit all this data that journalists like us, can study and hold their feet to the fire? Let's say there wasn't any of that show a year before the Paris agreement was agreed to in twenty fourteen, the global Average temperature was on track to heat up by nearly four degrees celsius by the end of this century
can where we now, while we are on track to heat up, I about three degrees celsius. If all countries meet the targets that we have set for themselves, that could go down to about two point: four to five degrees of warming rights, still bad you're, saying not as bad as it could be. As my colleagues wrote last week, where we're out is a better result, it still devastating
so what's the lesson about thought experiment so two lessons. First, that emissions can be reduced, that temperature rise can be limited, and to that perhaps this whole system, the way the peace accord is built around the system of diplomatic, peer pressure around which the Paris agreement is built can deliver some results, and that is the whole point of why an international climate summit like this is taking place. So to return to me too, the question we started with What is the value of a conference like this at this extreme we dire stage and our climate history, its what you are saying is that this self evidently imperfect system is system? That does accomplish something? Clearly not working as well
everyone would like, but better than the old turn it is, which is leaving every country to their own devices and hoping that they do I think for the climate on their own. Is that the thinking well? Look. What I can tell you is that this is a fundamental me. Global problem that no leader on its own is in a position to address, so it needs at its core global collective action. A conference like this, a summit like this is the first step in nudging countries, particularly big polluting countries, to do better. The second most important step is to see if they will to hold them accountable right
which no doubt we need another conference. That's right, there will be another climate conference and I will be covering at so many good luck. Thanks for having me. Thank you very much repression, All the way back, who doesn't love to live well in perfect comfort in style, Hundred Douglas can help you do just that with their innovative window, Shea designs and control system so advanced, they can be set to automatically adjusted their optimal position throughout the day lived beautifully with Hunter Douglas? visit hundred Douglas dot com slash the daily today to take advantage of the season of style, rebate, savings of ants, that's Hunter Douglas dot COM,
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he's episode was produced by mood safety, clear, tend to scatter Michael Simon, Johnson and Rob Zip code was edited by Visa Chow, trivial wins and envy Davis lip in engineered by Chris WAR, oh regional, music by Marian Lozano or things is by Jim, Brandenburg and Ben lands of water that for today, Nikobob I've seen him. Growth is believes. There is a better way to make shoes. Did you know that every minute, one million plastic water bottles are sold around the world and most of them don't get recycled? That's why refuse use
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Transcript generated on 2021-11-03.