From the New York Times, unlike overall. This is a day like today the results of the election taught us about the american electorate and about the appalling that, once again failed to correctly understand it conversation with my colleague need com, it's Tuesday November tenth. So me we're gonna have to conversations with. The first is about what we learned from the vote:

the results of this election. Now that the race has been caught- and second is what we learned about- why the pools were so off once again, including our own pulling here at the times- and China have a reckoning on that front from good brain, I'm sure it's gonna be a total pleasure for her well wait. Let's start with the voters is and how this historic turn out for both candidates broke down and perhaps those intriguing group. In this campaign, and so far in the results are latino vote or so tell us what the final final issue data is telling you about letting over I suspect that many listening right now have probably heard that down from fared quite well,

among latino villars. You learn that pretty quickly on election night, when the results from Miami Date County and floor came in and now that we have seen more detailed results from elsewhere in the country. I think we can safely say that latino voters really went to Donald Trump stood out everywhere? We have a full and clear account of the results. True in the agricultural regions of California, like the Imperial Valley, it's true in the border towns along the Rio Grande. It seems like it's even through in the northern cities like Philadelphia or Milwaukee. Where harbour Tina, These are usually the very most reliable for Democrats and the magnitude of the improvement for the present is really significant. Their counties along the Rio Grande, where Trump picked up fifty

it's fifty points among just latina. Voters I mean essentially emanate, can know for sure that there is some contribution of white voters in these counties, of course, but these are places where what he never make up the overwhelming majority. Of the electorate, as how do you start to explain What is now a much broader phenomenon, then? Perhaps many of us thought it would be on election

Is this the story of Democrats failing to capture this vote, or, as is the story of Donald Trump succeeding in capturing it? Is it both? How are you thinking about so? The first thing I would I would just say is: I think this is a place where reporting on the ground will be really helpful. The pull struggle with Latino Barcelona National survey. You only get a hundred latino voters. It's difficult to a man saw a lot of latina responds to do the kind of deep dives that we can do on larger suburbs, like white voters, for instance, to infer will get too. As a general framing point, I would say that this election was about Donald Trump. It was a reference I'm on the president, Joe Biden did everything they could to make sure it was about. The presidency stated his basement as the trunk campaign often noted, and so I am inclined to assume that when we see big shifts that it reflects attitudes about them resident, not Joe Biden, so we should read into set the president successfully appealed over the last.

So to this group of workers. That's right. One thing I would point out is that there was always strong evidence that the economy was the President strong suit in this election, and when you look at the results, not just for Lahti, no voters, but also for other non hispanic voters. It does seem to me that the president made his largest gains in less affluent areas. It would not surprise me if that reflects that greater silence of the economy for economically vulnerable people compared to people whom I had the privilege to vote on. Other issues like cultural issues, are the president's conduct an office and so on. A second observation I would make is that to me this was not an election about immigration in the same way that the twenty sixteen election was sort of about immigrants, trumps pledge to build the wall. His comments- you no one- is very full.

today. He's not the presidency when he said that Mexicans were rapists and criminals, and so on. Hillary Clinton, two thousand and sixteen really focused on immigration. As one of her major critiques of the president- and I wouldn't say that was nearly so true in twenty twenty- I don't think immigration even came up in the first presidential debate. So I think you can imagine let immigration became less sailing to not just a spanish voters, but all voters, but that was particularly consequential along hispanic voters, because I think we can at least I papa size that many latino voters and twenty sixteen were sceptical, in part because of the way you talk about this issue. So the issue that might have hurt present trumpet the Tina voters, Immigration was far less prominent. This time than four years ago, and the thing that would potentially help him the most with our voters. The economy,

did seem to work in his favor in so far as latina, voters identified him with economic prosperity, especially pre pandemic economic prosperity. Yeah, that's right and one final point I would make, Is that the president has always done really well among white voters without aid agree? His stick has had appeal for that demographic group, and I don't think that's just about policy are also think it's about his conduct. I think that the Trump ACT has appeal to a lot of people who have previously been terribly were set two republican politicians in the past, and I think that if we are honest that its always obvious why the president's appeal to white working class

leaders on the economy or in terms of his conduct and temperament would also have appeal to working class voters who are non white, whether their black or latino. So I could cobbled together a theory that sort of says that many of the things that appeal to a working class voters about Donald Trump may appeal to hispanic voters as well, but in twenty. Sixteen that was obscured by his position on immigration and one's immigration was sort of taken out of the picture. Maybe that gave the president a belated opportunity to making the same sort of gains among working class latino voters in twenty twenty, that he was able to make among white working class traditionally democratic voters in twenty. Sixteen, it's interesting need that you may that parallel, because, as you are describing what's happening here, it occurred to me that if you are the Democratic Party The last major group of voters that were perhaps taken for granted

in the past decade or so wore white working class voters, especially in the MID West democratic leaders, have thought those voters were unquestionably theirs. I wonder if that's the right way of thinking about how the Democratic Party saw latino voters in twenty Twond That there was an assumption that they would be with Joe Biden and and it just war not to the same I think that's right. I think there are a lot of people in this country who became Democrats during an era when the Democratic Party was the party of working people and the Republicans with a party of the rich and business interests who, over the last four years, have come to see the president as a different kind of republican and the present

has denied the Democrats some of their traditional advantage among working class voters of all races. As a result, this was not a campaign in private hands or security. It wasn't a campaign about the minimum wage and so on. Instead, the Democrats have advanced a sort of ideal is stick a liberal message with obvious residents least and unpolished educated voters, and it didn't have the same residents among working class. Voters and Democrats in the past have gotten away with it by falling back on their trade. signal strength among these groups, long standing allegiance that has maybe been eroded. Now the Republicans have put forward a more populous candid. Ok need one black voters. What did we learn about this population from the results of by securing? I think that there were a feat. I would make a few points about what happens. Letters one is that it seems to me that, although black turnout increase, it did not increase the same extent as it increased among non black voters, and so, as a result, the black sheep,

of the electric seem to decline in the number of black Americans who voted did increase, but the number of everybody else increase just a little bit more. That's right, so you may recall him twenty. Sixteen. The turnout in places like Milwaukee and Philadelphia in Detroit was down. It was down by so much that Hillary Clinton narrowly lost in twenty twenty. The turn out was up significantly enough that if you could go back in time with this black turn out Hillary Clinton would have been the President Klaus, but yet we wait turn out elsewhere in these states increased by even more. For said, if you could go in time and increase white turn out in twenty. Sixteen to the same extent, Donald Trump would then come back and be present and again. Well, that is actually fascinating. You're saying to you slide, the increase in both the black and white vote,

that occurred this year back, then you get the same result. That's right! In the end, the black verses white turnout, Dynamic not change in a way that would have allowed the Democrats to prevail four years ago and among the black put us who turned out what percentage Biden, vs President Trump- could I have the sense of the president did so much better with my foot hurts than was expected. I think that's that's right to an extent. I think that this is a gamma case. We will need to see the final data before we nail this down, but let's just say that I had one roughly ninety percent of the black vote and that Donald Trump won around ten percent of the black soap give or take. You know we'll see what the final numbers are. That will be better for Donald Trump, then in twenty sixteen, and if I were forced to explain, chalk up a similar explanation to what I told you of what he no voters were some combination of the president's economic appeal, and so I was able to help them feel off just a little bit

I don't want to over think it too much. This is a pretty small shift. All things considered and the Democrats continue to command the overwhelming support of lack voters need, if you was theory, is accurate and what connects the improvement by Donald Trump among latino and black voters. Is his economic message, which interesting about that, of course, is that the economy is doing terribly right now because of the pandemic, and so it means that. This kind of a schedule affection for the president Success in our right, the way the upmarket market did before the pandemic the way job growth was going before the pandemic, but it's remarkable that he's still getting credit for that, given Things are right now, you're, here the points, I would make

one you're totally right, I think that the present does still get credit for the way he handled the economy during ordinary circumstances, and people can rationally believe that the president was a good steward of the economy when Kroner virus wasn't in the picture and therefore he'll be a sort of you. I once chroniclers picture. The second thing I would say is that I think that he also has gotten some credit from people for the way he handled the economy during the cry of ours. The stimulus package was really popular. Democrats have not for decides the way he's handled the economy during the krona virus. They have only criticized his handle

of the crime of ours and even on his handling of the court of Irish. The main criticism of him is that he's too eager to reopen the economy. So it's a little bit complicated to make people go through the logic of here. Someone who wants to reopen the economy and therefore is on the side of getting people back to work and so on right, but is actually bad for the economy, because that step that spatially good for the economy will contribute to the spread of the crown of Irish for forest shot down to chart the economy that's break in. I do think that we take them, logic for granted in a way that I'm not sure we should expect of ordinary people fair point, because we now want to turn to my group that we have been talking about a lot throughout this campaign, a group that was predicted to potential Ye decisive in this election in that was suburban, pools predicted that Many of the suburban voters who had voted for Trump for years.

would swing to bide. Did that end up happening? That's the thing that ended up happening, and it was just enough for him to get over the top in the northern bout around states, as well as in Arizona and in Georgia across the country, Joe Biden, did or in suburban areas. Then Hillary Clinton did four years ago is and were largest in traditionally republican suburban areas like Atlanta, like Dallas, like Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Kansas City, grey Rapids Michigan places that are not full of liberal, suburban aids that I've been voting democratic for a really long time like Westchester counter. Firms DC in Philadelphia and don't get me wrong? Buying did make gains in a lot of those traditionally democratic, suburban areas, but the biggest gains were in the areas where ten or fifteen years ago, the Republicans dominated among the suburban vote and now a lot of traditionally republican affluent white voters in those areas are saying: wait a second. This isn't the Republican Party I signed up

four and now he swung pretty decisively to the Democrats, and we know why there was this shifted physic that word you tissues affluence may be an element of it that these are voters who can financially afford to cast a vote based on whether they like Trump or by I definitely think there's something to that you. I think that there are a lot of rich white people and the sums of Dallas I was of a land I hope in voting for their tax cuts for a very long time, but dialogue from cross the line with them in terms of his personal conduct

and they are willing to vote on what they feel and think about him as a person in a way that maybe other people are not necessarily so inclined to do by also do think there is a policy element of it as well. I think that immigration has always been popular and free trade has always been popular among a big chunk of conservative voters in suburbs across the south, and the president has departed from traditional republican views on some of those issues in a way that may at least somewhat complicate the idea that this is strictly a vote against their policy views. But I do think it's true that it's a lot easier for someone making two hundred thousand dollars a year to vote against. Received economic interests than it would be. If you make twenty thousand dollars, you ok. So. Finally, what about White Non College educated voters, many of whom are in Rural America, not suburban. So we may be talking about extra urban or whirl voters.

This is traditionally seen as it presents base. This is the group that Biden had hoped he would start to poach? How successfully did he do that? How well did President Trump defend this space for himself, according to the data that you have seen, Donald Trump defended his base here and to a far greater extent than any of the pre election. Poles anticipated. As far as I can tell no bite him didn't make any gains in rural America among white voters, since twenty sixteen, and as you alluded to the whole sort of premise of choosing Scranton Joe, was that if the Democrats nominated a white moderate with some populist appeal that you could win back some of the voters who back

like a bomb in twenty twelve supported, Donald Trump and twenty succeed, and I just didn't happen and in many cases, Donald Trump extended his games. There are places in Rural Ireland, whirl o higher, where Donald Trump did even better than he did four years ago, and that this is the exact opposite of what the pre election pulse said. So something when very wrong. In the public opinion, so while we will get to that, but they at the end of the day, if I'm putting all these pieces together. The way I think you have intended for me too, feels like suburban voters and being the most important group to shift and shift in the direction of Joe Biden is that the correct does actually right We have known for a very long time that voters had deep reservations about Donald Trump. We know that he only receive forty six percent of the national, though in twenty sixteen we know that he was

least popular candidate in terms of ever ratings when he was elected and the present had for years to try and address the shortcomings It seems that his handling of the economy and has performance on the job was enough to persuade some number of more economical. honourable voters, or maybe just voters in general, even higher on the economic spectrum, to support his re election to the personal reservations that they probably had about him for years. But it also seems that in nominating Joe Biden, someone who is fair, we broadly appealing who promised unify the country and to act in a way, the setting of the office that Joe Biden was able to consolidate a significant number of voters. We have long standing reservations about the president, especially college educated voters, especially traditionally republican tilting, independent voters in the suburbs of around many of our largest cities.

That, to me, tells you a very odd and interesting story. It says that the economy can We hope it presents, we ve already known, but there are limits to it. I'll be right back. Three M is using science and innovation to help the world respond, to covered nineteen and taking action to support communities in the fight. Since the outbreak, threeam has responded with cash and product donations, including surgical masks, Hansen is Heizer and respirators through local and global partners

mission, three m is on track to produce two billion respirators globally by the end of twenty twenty learn. How else three m is helping the world respond to covered? Nineteen goes to three m dot com: slash covered three m science applied to life take a look at our new Paul. The headline number is this: this is a while the largest leave the race for Joe Biden, Joe Biden with a fourteen point led nationally over President Trop ten points, while point we'd over from the largest leave the race for Joe Biden by sixteen point spread. Joe Biden leads in Michigan here.

Its North Carolina. He leads in Pennsylvania. He leads in Wisconsin. Joe Biden is leading president from by eleven points in this concept. In the latest New York Times, Sienna College Pole, Joe Biden is in the hunt in these races that have been going read of late in these states or imagine Germans election, I could also include North Carolina, could possibly include Florida. This is not an out of the question map here for Joe Biden, given this need. Sonny now for the route canal, section conversation you cover point. For the times, and you are involved in how pulling itself is conducted for and by the times along with our partners

and we all know at this point that there was significant pulling error this here. How would you describe the level of pulling era enjoy twenty? I would consider this to be far worse than twenty sixteen hours in terms of the difference. Queen the final poll results and the actual results. The difference is not that much worse than two thousand and sixteen is pretty comfortable, but posters this year do not have the same excuses that they had for years ago, and I think that the air is much more systematic and betrays must word fundamental problems with the effort to represent the electorate, then the polling that four years ago, and I wanted to give us some examples just so we are on the same age when you say the poles are worse. This, I'm than four years ago. When you mean by that thee,.

Maybe it's easier to start with twenty. Sixteen for us in the polls did a good job of representing white voters without a degree in that they Showed white voters without a degree being great for Trump against salary, but they did not have enough of those voters. And although that is a serious problem in pulling to not have enough of a certain demographic group, it is a key one problem and pulling, and it is a fixable problem because you can give more weight to voters from their demographic, written and in the post electoral analysis for years ago, pulsars found that when they gave more weight to that group, but the pulls the pretty well in twenty twenty, Pollsters did that they gave more weight to wait working class but but they were no closer to the result. Even though we know that the same technique for years ago would have brought the poles closer the result. So I just want be clear on this. What makes the error in twenty twenty

greater and more grievous than twenty. Sixteen is that we entered twenty twenty. Having made meaningful adjustments to our pulling methodology, Opel was I come to the presidential election, and yet we still had super off poles despite those reforms and adjustments. Not only were they super off, though they were just as battle, and what means is that, while, four years ago, the poll showed Donald Trump doing really well, I'm unlike voter started, agree and had too few of them this year. The poles. Had. The right number of white voters doubted agree, but they showed Joe Biden doing, a better among this group than he actually did so for all this election women sang way, voters that it agreed voted for Donald Trump and twenty sixteen appeared have come back for Joe Biden and it didn't happen. Ok. So how do you explain the level of error that you just tick through after all,

corrections made four years ago, to try to ensure that this would never happen. I am going to try and answer your question for? I know that I do want to say that it is too soon to have a definitive autopsy on this and you to take that knowledge. A little further than the body is still debt of the scene of the crime. It doesn't made it more difficult for us to go into the details and dig in to see exactly What went on here and of what we know. We know the poles when really wrong, but it's gonna be a bit until we ve kneeled down exactly So I'm input as I'm habit is assuming you're a crime scene investigator, and here they are you trying to figure it out. What do you know so far? Yeah I can to toss out some mighty is that's all they are at the stage. We seen over the last four years, a huge increase in political participation on the left. We also know that political participation correlated participating in balls, which makes sense you get call them. You either choose to take the survey or not, and if that interests you because you're interested in politics, euro, likelier too

couple this could mean that Democrats became more likely to take apple. Does one possibility? possibilities. Look it on the other side that added tromp. Voters are less likely to respond to surveys than they were four years ago. Perhaps the president's attacks on the media, an institution have gradually eroded their trust in servants, maybe even the twenty. Sixteen result itself had a role. in diminishing their willingness to participate in surveys, because the polls were off by so much and now they don't trust them and don't want to play. We make sure in the state of Pennsylvania. Forty one percent of our interviews are with Republicans or whatever. The number was in. That area which Republicans pick up the phone where they are the ones that will really enthusiastic about the president

in rural areas, or were they the people who are also registrars republican but are no longer fans of the prince? I think that we have to conclude that we got the ones who are more likely not to be fans the present. That's not to say we didn't get plenty of people who support the president, but enough of a difference compared to reality that you know job. In one direction, will need we had for years. Are the president speaking about the organisations that can ducked pulling in a very specific way, and that would be the New York Times? conducts poor. That would be ABC News. That would be CNN. That would be CBS and he has described them is the enemy of the people he has described them is fake media.

I don't have a hugely hard time understanding why his supporters would be skeptical of answering our calls, and I think that for years of the president, advancing that message could have had negative effects on the bulls. I think it's totally possible. I don't have any proof of that, but what's important about that theory is that it could potentially explain why the poles have gotten worse since two thousand and seventeen that to me is the key of any theory. If you really want to try and dig into what's happening, certainly are we left. with the kind of inevitable conclusion he her after True presidential elections that pretty much did the same sin, perhaps for different reasons that election pooling pre election pulling is broke ass, great question and I think it depends on the level of precision that you expect out of it and there's a spectrum of the ways that you can interpret point one possibilities at the poles are imprecise.

but there are still useful they'll never be able to kneel down whether Joe Biden is gonna. In Georgia or lose it by four when it by four like they're. Just not that good, but they're good enough to flag that something happened in Georgia and that's useful to us. Another possibility is that they are so imprecise that there are no longer useful. It's all right. We got these pull showing Biden up eight points, but in our political era. The range of possible outcomes in national elections is pretty state in my lifetime. The whole range of results goes from what Bush, plus two and two thousand forbidden, calydon, plus eight and ninety. Ninety six, and so is the amount of air in a pool, is basically equal to the range of possible results. They may tell us something but they're just now that useful in any given election either side can win, and you can't rule out anything and you didn't get that much out of it. Third possibilities at the poles are so wrong that there

are productive there, not just use less, but no human, actively misleading picture of the country that we live. That would be really bad of trip. So now I need to know: where do you fall on this spectrum imprecise but directional, useful, useless, but we can live with them, really bad and misleading and counterproductive, because it feels like for a lot of people number three is kind of where we may be living. Now: where do you wear where's your head? I think there are definitely many of the polling air this year and in twenty sixteen that fall in to the counter productive cat you're, no Ohio and Iowa Joe Biden decided to spend your late parts of his campaign. Final stop in Cleveland on the day before the election. That's alright counter productive,

It's also counter productive for readers and the electorate. Here there are cases where political activists make decisions to spend money on long shock, Senate races like South Carolina, Senator the Kansas Senate, Racer Alaska Centres were people just put their energies into the wrong spot. There's also a toll on people's trust in institutions. Pulling is inherently uncertain thing, and so we do expect to some extent that readers appreciate that you know pulls can be off and it shouldn't undermine the credibility of other things that we have to say or do, which could be more based on the firmest facts, but I think that it does not undermine the credibility of our ability to communicate. To readers that we understand the difference between something that we know to be true in something that is the best estimate. But you didn't answer my question: where do you fall? I'm really did I think that your torn- I really am torn I

The alternatives to public Poland are pretty bad. I mean we're just start to talk to our neighbours and are like minded friends, we wouldn't really have any idea of what is happening There- s the country potentially. So that's that's tough, to accept. Let's revisit this after the autopsy. If we go through the data- and we find that there are things that we can fix, then will make those changes and evaluate whether we think were still in the imperfect but useful category, and then we may contain do some amount of public point in the future but if we conclude that we don't think we can fix these things, then we have a really hard choice, which is whether to and in the enterprise altogether, which has an important cause, because if you dont have a red on the attitudes of the electorate in, oh, I think were left with alternatives that are not

the good, and I think it does matter to understand where the american people are. I think it's important away. This democracy works, but if we can't get there, then we can get. There and we will have to re evaluate, will do going forward Well, maybe I look forward to hearing what you learn. Thank you very much for your time round me

all the way back. Are you tired of overpaying for razors, our friends at Harry's? Have you covered crafted in their century? Old german factory carries make sharp precision. Engineered blades were as little as two dollars each backed by a one hundred percent money back guarantee at Harry's dot com. It's no wonder. Millions have already made this which to Harry's join them. With this special offer, new customers can redeem a hairy starter set that comes with a handle: five blade, razor shaved, yell and a travel cover at Harry's Dotcom, slash the daily, that's Harry's, dot com, slash the daily,

Here's what else you need to know how to spend a few minutes. It's boring talking about what we saw last week, where we are now and where a great country or go from air in a speech from the capital on Monday Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell through his support behind President trumps refusal to concede the election and declined to recognise President, unlike Joe Biden, victory bread, a tribe, is one hundred percent within his right to look into allegations of irregularities and waded legal options. Mcconnell marked Democrats for calling on trumped to except the results of the election sing.

That many of them had never recognised trumps victory for years ago. That message prompted a scolding from Senate Minority leader, Chuck sure Joe Biden one this election, fair and square republican leaders must unequivocally condemn the president's rhetoric and work to ensure the peaceful transfer of power on January twenty, but too many, including the republican leader, have been silent or sympathetic to the president's fantasies, Yet the drug maker Pfizer announced that an early analysis of large scale human testing has found that its corona, Virus vaccine is than ninety percent effective in preventing infection. A highly promising result that could make it a leading candidate for federal, approve. The clinical trial is not complete and the result could change

but so far the company said no serious safety concerns have been observed. Pfizer said that it would ask the FDA, for more urgency. Authorization for the vaccine later this month that's it for the deal. I might come up I'll see you tomorrow before the email modifications begin to pour in let's give ourselves a good morning, a good morning, is a moment to pause and ease into the day. It's him, to run and chased the sunrise or to Jemmy settle into your routine a good morning. Is the moment to be present, to find clarity and to be grounded for the day ahead. Good days start with good morning

and good morning start with Yogi T Yogi T tease made to do more than just tastes, good,