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America’s Miscalculations, Afghanistan’s Collapse

2021-08-17 | 🔗

The last few days in Afghanistan have been chaotic as the Taliban retake control of the country.

The debacle can be traced to a number of assumptions that guided the execution of the U.S. withdrawal from the country after two decades of war.

How could those assumptions have proved so wrong, so quickly?

Guest: David E. Sanger, a White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times.

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For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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with my colleague, David say. It's Tuesday August seventeen. David, I want to start with the latest developments inside cobble now that it has fallen into the hands of the tab, and can you describe what that's has been like over the past twenty four hours or so we'll Michael Was a weekend in which events unfolded and if much faster than anybody at the White House, journalists, even people in Kabul thought they were You're just joining us we're getting new developments from Afghanistan, where the situation is changing their minute by minute, and by Sunday the Taliban. Were at the gates of the city american tunic helicopters have been spent, taking off and landing near the. U S, embassy, as the Pentagon speeds troops into Kabul to get our people
We were seeing helicopters lifting off adjacent, the american embassy. Clearly beginning the shuttle people out to the airport, Richardson something at the top of his reporting, and I want to make sure that everybody hard it because it is significant that president President Gaudy about Stan has left the country by midday. President Ghani had fled the palace was out of the country, it look like he had not even told his cabin or his top AIDS you are looking at Taliban faces in cites the play. essential powers by Sunday night There were pictures of the Taliban showing up at the palace stunning, turn arise of events. Why
and then, on Monday, we saw these heartbreaking scenes from around the hundred cars I airport. There were thousands of Afghans trying to get through the gates over the gates. anything they could do to get their families sighed the airport compound in hopes of somehow floor flying away from the Talibans clutches There was one moment where American Marines had to go open fire. Some armed attackers who were coming in at the airfield There was another moment: perhaps the man, devastating of all where you saw people clinging landing the of a plane as it was taking off and some of them falling to their death.
I would even I'm struck by just how many american officials, Even the Secretary of State, for instance, who expressing surprise at these developments in some cases shock- and I wanna talk to you why this has all been surprise and what misjudgments and the she's- got us to this point where the town Ben could so quickly sees control of the entire country before the? U S, even finished its military withdrawal, so where should we start? Why think the way you start Michael, is to think about this decision in two different parts. The first part was by this decision to get out He made a decision in April that he would have all american troops out of the country by September eleventh, and we could have a separate debate about whether that was a good decision or a bed.
Susan, but you ve heard is fundamental argument, which was if we didn't managed to change your country and twenty. Staying another year or two years or five years was not going to make a material difference right. So at that moment he basically started a clock once the clock started, it raised a whole second set of issues which is How do you execute on this decision in a smooth way that hands over the power to the afghan government and doesn't give a huge opening to the Taliban right, and I think it's fair to say, Michael, that there are sort of four major assumptions some might say miscalculations there. Go in to the execution of the american Withdraw and that some would argue contributed to the chaos that we ve Jesse and even what is the first,
of those assumptions, slash miscalculations or the first in the biggest assumption, was that they had the luxury of time. He and the intelligence assessments that were on President Biden desk suggested that they would probably have at least eighteen months before cobble could be seriously threatened by the Taliban and that, over that time, the afghan security forces would learn how to operate on their own so that they might actually be able to hold on to strategically vital parts of the country, especially the capital cobble, and that twenty years of training and equipping the afghan security forces at a cost of at least- the three billion dollars and some would say much higher.
had created an efficient force that had the capability to go deal with the Taliban and some big advantages. What do you mean? The afghan security forces had all of the hard air that we have been giving them and training them how to use and maintain they had helicopters they had aircraft. This was a huge advantage, obviously in most battle situations, and there were three hundred thousand afghan security forces, there were only seventy five, I wasn t all abide by the best estimates, so a major underpinning of the eighteen month. Time horizon that turned out to be very flawed. Was this numerical disjunction between the Taliban, seventy five thousand and the afghan security forces? Three hundred thousand yes on paper, the capabilities of the Afghans.
was tremendous. A one point Biden said it was one of the best equipped. Modern fighting forces in the world some exaggeration, but on paper it looked like the afghan government had all the advantages and that led to the second big assumption, which was that the afghan forces heads same drive the same determination to win that the Taliban to it. And why did the? U S, get that so wrong? How did we miscalculate The willingness, the eagerness, the determination, the afghan military to defend their country against the Taliban. We know that's going to be when the histories of this written, I think the biggest and tough his question, because if you asked
almost anybody who had fought alongside the afghan units, they would tell you that at best it was a mixed bag. There were extremely talented, extremely patriotic, extremely hard working Afghan special forces and that there were moments in time, particularly around two thousand nine, two thousand ten. Where those unit, fought right alongside the United States, learned a lot of lessons and seemed to be a very effective fighting force I think the overwhelming sense that you get from people who spent a lot of time with that Understand in some way as soldiers were contractors or whatever They Worley were ready for it. And so I think the big question is did Joe Biden, a man who prides himself as the foreign policy president, who will
As chairman of the Senate Farm Relations Committee during much of the afghan war, how did he make them this judgment, that the Afghans were ready and that's have really pretty big mystery that were all trying to grapple with them? we'll be right back.
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twenty thousand twenty five thousand. Maybe more Afghans their families who had worked for the Americans or worked for Ngos work for news organisations and needed to get out of the country. If the Taliban we're going to take over right. There seems like a basic obligation of a country that occupies enough country for twenty years that's right. and I mean we knew from what the military did- that you can get a lot of people out of Afghanistan and a big hurry, because after all, the military was way ahead of schedule and got most of their combat troops out before the July. Fourth out of it. But it was a more complicated issue with these two different groups of civilians, the State Department was hesitant to reduce the size of the embassy to quickly because they had a lot of people
Eric nations they needed to deal with the afghan government, and then there were those interpreters and the helpers and those people who work for news organisations like the times, and that was difficult as well, because the president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Johnny, best President Biden during his meeting at the White House in June to keep a lot of these people in the country was he didn't want? The image of the United States believed that the afghan government would fall, and the question was, as it became clear that the country was collapsing and the Taliban were taking more territory. Could you get these people out of the country on aircraft and that process? The paper work meeting all the statutory requirements for these special immigration status. That was all agonizingly slow understood, but
the number of lives hanging in the balance lives of Seville and would risk their lives for the united, it's an hour military Afghanistan. Why, in the. U S: take steps to expedite the process to cut through all this agonizingly slow bureaucracy and just make this happen? It's a great question, Michael, and I think it's gonna be the subject of a lot of investigations and incoming once the administration says that the wall so complex for these kinds of special immigrants that they had to go through a lengthy process and the? U S did not have light set up for them, so it was only a few weeks ago that they got the first to that some of them out to some? U S basis where their application be evaluating process. It may take a year, a and that left thousands is more stranded when the curtain came down what David, I think,
there's not going to be a lot of sympathy for the binding nutrition when it comes to this group of people, because these are the folks who risk their lives to help the United States, United States military conduct, its mission and I understand, and so the idea that there was a lot of paperwork or they didn't plan for an hour flights going to be very, very hard for people to swallow it we even harder since we are showing this weekend and this week that, if you will, please a huge amount of organizational effort to it. A lot of flights can move a lot of people really quickly. If you could do this in a giant rush as the Taliban were coming through, the outer gates of Kabul, why couldn't you have been moving? Five hundred there are a thousand of these interpreters and their families. Starting in April or may so even what is the fourth and final misjudgment here
when it comes to the execution of the? U S, withdrawal or if it were a fourth one Michael, is one that actually broken Joe Biden favour. It was an assumption that if the yen did come to cobble, if the afghan forces did fall apart, there would be an awful and bloody block by block civil war is being fought in the streets of cop that didn't when the Taliban showed up at the gates of Coppell, they said we're coming in and we are going to take over the reins of the government and the security forces, but we're going to go, do it peacefully and they made it clear that they would not attack embassies or diplomats. They made no such guarantees for Afghans who made works, buzz and the seats, but basically the bloodbath that we had all feared.
What happened in the last stages of Afghans of war between the Taliban and the afghan government didn't materialise right, and it feels like one explanation for that is that the afghan security for as we have discussed, lay down their arms. But I'm curious why that How a ban has been so seemingly were strand as they enter these cities especially cobble whether a couple possible answers. is one possibility. Is that the Taliban have twenty twenty one are not the same as the Taliban of two thousand and one it, two wearily to come to that conclusion. This I can be is that the American were mounting a big operation to get out and not just to get Americans out, but to get the rest of the western governments out, and so why get in their way when the adversary was leaving right? So wait for
all those Marines who are supposed to guide the Americans out of the country to depart and then they would own the city and the government and the rain power, and they could go do whatever they were going to do so, is it. The Taliban may understand that violence against afghan civilians might just right, the? U S to stay or slaughter, withdraw or get some help. We involved in this conflict so don't bother, but that may of course be a temporary show of restraint rather than a permanent one could be, but it also could be that they see an opportunity, to avoid being dealt with as a pariah and avoid the kind of crippling economic sanctions that would leave them in a lot of trouble running the country you know, is very positive, the China and Russia will end up. Recognising this new government- and you know it's conceivable- dealers
aids in the future- might do the same in a one one sector state Tony Blinkin was asked this question over the weekend. He said they would judge. The Taliban By their behaviour, by their respect for human rights so forth, he did not say that we would not recognise any government that wasn't democratically elected. He said we will judge them by how they wore David. I wonder How much of all of these ultimately incorrect assumptions that the binding nutrition made tie back to the original. U S announcement that our military was leaving Afghanistan and to the assumption that Afghanistan, American Back government and its american Back military could ever really function without american soldiers on the ground. was that assumption itself inherently flawed, in other words, is theirs
two thing as leaving a country like Afghanistan after twenty years, cleanly Michael, I don't think there was any a chance that when the Eu S left it could leave cleanly and in part, that's because the mission had expanded so dramatically beyond kicking Al Qaeda hunting down Osama Bin Laden. You know it became building a democracy, it became protecting girls so that they could go to school. Came building a real economy. It became building western style american style military, whether those fit within an afghan context were not, and if you trace a problem back that far, that expansion happened in the Bush administration right right. When your mission gets that big, when it becomes not only about hunting down terrorists, but about
Changing the nature of the country actually matter is is no way to work. Down an operation that big that quickly and expect that the afghan military? We just pick up where you left off right. I think us the question a lotta people's minds. Dance given that chain of decision making. You just described that dates back twenty years, how much possibility. Does President Biden Shoulder here will clearly he shall do some for the decisions made since he came in about how you will execute the withdraw? You can believe that Biden made exactly the right decision to get it. That we wouldn't do any better stay. for one year or five. Still believe that it could have executed it far more skilfully
Will the world remember that binding got out of Afghanistan that he ended this nightmare that have expanded? emission well beyond what the original intention was or Remember how we got out and whether we left a good number of people who had showed what data with the United States will help the United States in this war, whether we have left them behind. I think that's the enduring question The answer may be that they remember above But the fact of the matter is when we get to that commemoration. That twentieth anniversary the September eleven attacks in just a few weeks. The Taliban are gonna, be back
control of Kabul, just as they were twenty years ago, a David has always I give her time. Thank you Good afternoon, I speak today the unfortunate situation in Afghanistan, on Monday afternoon in a televised ass, to the nation president, an egg that the Taliban take over of Afghanistan had occurred far faster than his administration had expected and that his exit use of the? U S. Military withdrawal has been flawed I made a commitment to american people when I ran for present bring em because military involvement of to an end, while
hard and messy, and yes, far from perfect I've honour that commitment vine put. much of the blame on the afghan government, which he said, had failed to mount a real defence against the Taliban that lack of follow through violence That is precisely why the United States must leave Afghanistan. Rev gives them is unable to mount any real resistance of the Taliban. Now there is no chance that one year. One more year, five more years or twenty more years, we're smell reboot and growled have made any difference. Here's. What I believe to my core is wrong to order american troops to step up and Afghanistan zone armed forces would not
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Transcript generated on 2021-08-17.