From an New York Times, unlike above all this today as President Trump. We're just states to begin. We opening their economies. A debate begins over when and how to end the locked out science reporter Donald Cheat Macneil Junior on what that might look. Like its Monday April, twenty. So don't we have come to you, I just about every turn in this band. I make to understand. What's next and the portraits of the future that you have paid for us each time we talk have been strikingly accurate. You told us all the way back in February to prepare for lockdown see those happened. You told us to prepare for hiding,

fritz? You said a people we know would die and that, sadly, has happened. You warned us of shortages of medical supplies. That too has happened. Despite everything you said what happened has more or less happen, so I want to turn to the next instalment of this kind of rolling conversation we been have with you and start with a question that I think is on everyone's mind right now, which is when and how we start to reopen our society and what that would look like. Ok, well, look! I'm not some dark angel who simply looking into the future understood I'm talking to experts,

It's I'm looking at the other pandemics. I've covered, I'm talking about of historians and making predictions based on data, and so I think a lot of people think that my May or June or August we're going to return to something like normalcy, but all the experts. I talk to say: no, that's a fantasy. Why is it a fancy? Well, because if we all tried to out at once. Everything would look cool for about three weeks and that we could do after that. The emergency rooms and start to fill again and people would start to die. Again. I mean flapping. The curve is emotion that people love, but We say we're flattened the curve, not we're plateau going at a very high level of the curve. That means a steady rate of DES, so

we want, is to see the lockdown last until we get back down to close to what the normal baseline rate of death is, and it's going to be piece by piece. You know we might be able to lead a certain number of people ride the subway each day, show people still staying apart from each other. You don't you're not going to be able to let people sit next to each other in football stadiums. Maybe the team will play on the field and there will be some cameraman in the stands, but it's not going to be the way it was before if there is not going to be any kind of single moment for the current goes up and life resumes What does a lifting of these lockdown start to look like well, the best description I heard of it was in an article was on March nineteenth by Thomas P.

A writer and San Francisco and was called the hammer and the dance and the hammer is the lock down you. There was no question of social distancing. Light was more like Bab, everybody has to go into the house, but then, once you get the deaths down to a minimum then you begin the dance and the dances dancing a little bit out and opening up the restrictions and, seeing you know, how far can you, let me go? And then you see what that does the death rates at once? A death rates go up. You have to go back and leave. It asks for going to walk down again so at it repeats again and again in this dance in dance out, dancing, dance out and basically that's what the ugly logical models, show we have to do so. Innocent Oreo, tiptoeing back to normal happens, and if there is resurgence and affections and a hammer comes back down exactly so. Let's talk about what the opening starts to look like described the debts

Ok. So the dance is you have this whole list of things? You can ask people to do one of them being wear masks. Another one is sit six feet. Apart from your dining companions and arrested, so a restaurant that had a hundred customers before now has about ten customers in it. You have to cut down travel between cities, because people from a hot zone like New York recently could go to a cool zone and start infections, international travellers will have to be Corinth for fourteen days, so they were sure they're not infected when they come in. So we will have to find restrictions on people's movements that keeps them from getting too close and letting the virus spread again, because when the virus spreads thus follow. Ok, let's get a little more specific here. What is that?

and I mean, for let's say schools will. Schools is a big mystery because we don't know much about the virus and children. Very. Very few children get hospitalized and thy. It happens, but is very unclear. But the question is how much of the kids get the virus and transmit the virus, because if you open schools, the children may be fine, but teachers want necessarily be, and the children's parents and grandparents spoke so mayors and governors are gonna have to decide. You know maybe we're gonna open school for two weeks and see what happens or maybe we're gonna gonna. Let half the kids go to school this week, but have him sitting six feet apart and then next week the other half of the kids get to come to school and all but the typical workplace from the way you're describing schools. It sounds like at the very least people at an office or a factory would need to be six feet apart. What else? Well, it depends on what you mean by the average workplace

Are you a construction crew? Are you an office like the New York Times? Are you a factory? Are you a food processing plant if everyone is different and for those of us who work most of the day on computers it's not a whole lot, a reason to go back to the workplace It may be more of a source of danger, then any advantage you get from being their, whereas if you work in a chicken processing plant, you gotta be near, Tickets, so somehow they're gonna have the stretch out those chicken disassembly lines so that people can do it safely without it. At and they'll have to wear masks and there maybe they'll, be pugsy between the workers lives, lots of measures You can take em they're gonna be different for every single workplace. I want to talk for just a moan about geography, because I wonder if the scenarios you're describing what

why as rigorously in one part of, for example, the United States as another based on issues like density or the cycle of this virus. There are many places in the United States that have been largely untouched by this virus, or there are places like Washington State where it seems the virus has turned a corner. So would this hammer dance scenario apply in the same way to every corner of the country, or could it be applied more lightly or more severely, based on density based on number of infections? Yes, I mean it's a fantasy you to believe that there are any parts of the country that are untouched by this virus. I mean it is much more intense in some places like New York and New Orleans and Detroit, but it's everywhere I mean. If you look at any map of cases, it's certainly in every state. Its in multiple Canada mistake. So it's gonna have to be different techniques. Developed for

not just for every state in every country, but for every work situation so that you are not transmitting virus to each other. Dull is the point of the hammering the dance to avoid having the rest of the country get infected or does it simply slow, oh, a kind of inevitable version of mass infection, but not prevented it slows down I mean a certain amount of infection is inevitable, because emergency workers are gonna have to be other jobs, medical workers. In fact in there's gonna, be a certain level of infection at all times, but you want a damp it down to the minimum, but all the model say that maybe three percent, America is infected by now the other epidemiologists. Maybe it's ten percent at ten percent is pretty. I guess so. Still leaves three hundred million Americans uninfected, so we're a cut

that somewhere north of ninety percent susceptible and each time we do the dance out and dance in we chop a few more people off that susceptible list. A few the more dead. A bunch of them become immune, but it only proceeds in fits and starts. Maybe we go three million at a time, three million at a time, three million at a time. You know it's not a fast process and how long do the effort you talk? You say that this dance who did York her at some point, do we stop dancing? We just get to go back to normal video I will end when We have a vaccine that we can all take or if we have a prophylactic pill that will protect us all like prep, protects from HIV, or when so many of us would become infected, yellow seventy plus percent have become it. Did at the virus, dies out or slows down because it can't find any new victims to infect but

king of vaccine within eighteen months is extremely optimistic. The record with ever had for producing, I've seen as four years. That was a month's vaccine produce backward fifties. You know we ve got new techniques speeded up, but something's can't be sped up and then, after we design the vaccine, we have to think about producing them seen if we need three hundred million doses of vaccine or if we need to shots. If we need six hundred million doses of axing, that's a gigantic undertaking. I talk to some vaccine production experts and they said the average vaccine plant than America makes five ten million doses, so we ve got to find some way to make three honey. Six million doses of excellent and we have to start planning now, even before the vaccine exists. Don't you just said that the record for making of Axion is

for years. Are you saying that there is a version of this where this dance and a hammer and danced metaphor goes on not for one year, but something like for you You know that's a kind of worst case scenario. As far as the timing is concerned, everything may get lowered in this way, test vaccines in a way that we would think of as ethically unthinkable in normal we may go with somewhat lower. These standards for vaccines, because we're facing a situation where life is dangerous but yeah the fastest human vaccine ever it was maps four years from start to finish such one be clear: is there a world according to the experts, you're talking to whose a the world of tiptoeing out and coming back, well that there's a resurgence and then tiptoeing back out again that dad could last year's yes and during that the virus lasts,

It doesn't die off in the hot summers it doesn't. There is zero evidence that this virus dies often The virus is circulating now in India, in Brazil, in Austria, Abby, unitary, very hot environments, exactly does no weapons and it's gonna die outlets, or don't I'm willing to speak for many listeners when I say that the idea of living in masks. With everyone sitting succeed apart and the expectation that a viral resurgence might mean that even that becomes too risky, and so everyone goes back under lockdown. That that could go on for years is really pretty depressing and kind of hard to wrap one's head around. I know, but if we don't go into a dance means, is gonna, be more infections and and more deaths.

Yeah, all the way back. This podcast is supported by a trade trading, isn't for everyone but he trade is whether at saving for a rainy day or you retirement, each trade has you covered. They can help. You check financial off your list and with a team of professionals, giving you support. When you need it, you can be confident that your money is working hard for you get more than just trading with e trade to get started visit each dot com such pot cast for me formation, each trade, Securities, LLC member fin Raw. As Ipc I'm Wendy Door and I'm an editor on the daily for most my adult life, I thought of the New York Times as edge.

I ain't news machine that spit out news stories all day, long kind of like a vending machine and I'm embarrassed to say that it wasn't really until I came to work here at the times that I started to think about the reporters behind those news stories and what it takes to get the story in the first place. Sometimes these reporters risked their lives. Sometimes they talk to us two in the morning. Sometimes they call us from a war zone and nodded Do they tell us what's happening on the ground wherever they are, but they also give us the context that we need to understand it. If you like hearing These reporters every day, which I know I do the one thing you can do to support them and the daily is to subscribe to the New York Times if you'd like to do that, go to and why times dot com. Slash subscribe, dont during this period It feels like? Not. Everyone is gonna, be on equal footing

Some of us will have been infected, I will possess some kind of immunity to Covid nineteen right and many of us a horse will not have been infected and will not possess that, I'm going to be so. How does that factor? To this, given take this dance, you're describing well we're already seen this happen are a very small number of people now who are immune very much in demand therein demand for their blood because, good harvest, anybody from their blood there in demand for doing medic, jobs that are dangerous like intimating patients cause they can do it without fear of infection they'll be demand for all sorts of other jobs, because they can will anywhere. They can do face to face interactions with customers without any fear, and they're gonna, be sort of a special class in society, now be a sort of different standards, different ways of living for two different classes in society: say you're an immune, and I'm not I this? They have to stay

inside here and hiding and I'm depressed as hell about it- right, I have a granddaughter who's going to be born in June. I sit here in my apartment thinking, I may not see her until she's two years old man that's horrible to contemplate, but it may be a fact. Meanwhile you as an immune could go visit, my granddaughter or go out and take my job or no one can take your job digested. But not a hook. A lot of people want my job that now be a sort of different stand different ways of living for two different classes in society for a while, I'm it's quite science fiction- is kind of the stop it right. I mean that kind of a societal scarce right between the amount and the still susceptible it would seem to require a few pieces of firm knowledge. One is that there is

a widespread ability to tell who is a meal and versus was not, and the other piece of knowledge is that we know for sure that being infected confers immunity. So how do you resolve either of us? We don't know those things, yet we don't know them, for sure. But as Tony found she says you know usually when you recover from disease, your immune for a while, but you don't know how long the immunity less, because this disease has only been around since November at the earliest. Are there and do you envision a universe in which people. Literally, where some sort of sign that they are immune and that they can be rigorously proven. Yes, I mean that that is already beginning to take place. Germany is talking about issuing certificates, but you don't want some. You can pass from person to person, so China takes people's self,

and has a cure code that you read as you come into the subway. You come at a restaurant, you coming to any place where somebody can check your phone and that readout tells the present would meet your phone that European. So I am already thinking about this in the scenario that your laying out, immunity and devoted to show immunity would seem to be incredibly desirable and might create some very complicated incentives. Yes, people are going to be tempted to become a means and to do it, the Chicken Pox Party way, when you mean to deliberately infect themselves hoping for the best, but that they emerge at the. As an immune. I mean that patients, gonna be enormous,

describing deliberate and perhaps large scale acts of self infection. Yes, I am. There is a lot of historical precedent for that stuff. In the years before smallpox vaccine people used to take pass from the blisters of smallpox victims or dried up scams. Smallpox victims and put the pus into a in a stab a little hole in their child's arm and put some of the bus in there or below the scabs into your nose, and that would go you are usually mild case of smallpox I talked to him two dollars, you said: look, the child had about a one percent chance of dying. The parents recognise that, and that was better. Because if you had a small box, it didn't come through usually about a third of the susceptible died. So if you had six kids, my dad,

they heard about them, give them all a little bit of smallpox nearer dont. What you're describing is under a calculated risk that some people may take to self. Fact, and I wonder just how dangerous it may be if people miscalculate with the virus acting the way it is acting now, it's very dangerous We know that there are people who are more at risk, but we also know that is unpredictable, that young athletic healthy people totally unpredictably and upon a vet later and a few of them die right, so its people making life or death decisions for freedom and a paycheck, and a paycheck. Yes, everything that you are talking about here seems to assume the absence of a successful treatment and a world where were pre much waiting for a vaccine. Could that change

When we ask you this question and asked you have said that there wasn't a viable treatment Do you have any sense that may be changing and that of treatment? My come before of action. I dont have any sensitive changing in an important way. There is something the doctors place, some hope in and that is taking the blood from people who ve recovered from the disease and moving the red blood cells in the white blood cells and everything else, leaving just the antibodies, those anybody's glove onto the virus and neutralize, and so you can inject him into somebody who's sick, but it's a technology that has not fast moving. So it's not in the immediate future, but scientists are hopeful than its in the mid term future. So, in other words, for the time

we are left pretty much with a hammer and the dance, as are most practical solution. Exactly so don't with everything that you just said in mind. I want to return to that. First time we ever spoke, because when we have conversation. You were well ahead of anybody else in preparing us for what the pandemic would mean. There are rosy. That's me going to you do and you told us that we should be prepared not to see our friends in our family for awhile and all of that proved pressure. But there is one area where I recall, you perhaps underestimated something you said be prepared for a couple of months of something that, might look like a lock down, and now it's feelingly, let's go last a lot longer. So with that in mind, what paper

patients are you making now that the rest of us may end up making for ourselves in the coming days weeks months to prepare for that new reality? I mean I'm busy, I'm working harder than ever were quarter before and that's given me a sense of purpose. That gives me some psychological stability. The lot of other people dont have the luck to have I'm thinking about you know. What am I gonna do to entertain myself, I'm thinking about, fishing rod becoming one of those old guys on the peers is fishing for bluefin tuna. There I admit I like trafficking, but it seems unlikely. I'm gonna get away do that for a while. So it's just you have the sort of mentally prepare yourself. So these things in the end be it said I have visions for the future that are rosy than that. Keeps me going to you. Do you If you look at the periods after world war, one and after world war, two I mean-

Not only did the economy come back after both those periods. At me remember after the one to punch well one plus the spanish influenza. We had the roaring twenties after Rome or two we had a period in which in Europe, the war, widows and pensions fun became the European Welfare State WAR profit? suddenly faced higher taxes and a lot of scrutiny. People it pretty much had it with the rich by that time and they wanted more. They wanted the g. I bill they Wanted Federalist sponsored mortgages for housing. They wanted better Healthcare and, to some extent they got it. I mean I was born in writing. Fifty four and my parents were of the generation that had made it through the great debate in an through the Second World WAR and they had a different attitude of life. They had a sense of.

We did this incredible thing. We did it all together, we got through it. I hope that sort of era comes again that people will take more pleasure in small things in life and that we will do more to Webb. Make sure that we take care of each other at a battle, go through all levels of society and, like I said, I try not to predict the future, but maybe something like that will emerge from this. Well of all the visions that you have given us, I like how, in the best way to tackle. Thank you very much. Thank you on Friday. Vice president, my pants declared

that states have sufficient amount of testing to begin the process of reopening their economies, a clean that governors in multiple states immediately rejected as untrue, if not accurate, to say, there's plenty of testing out there and the governor should just get it done. That's just not being a straightforward in interviews on CNN on Sunday, the governor of Maryland Leary Hope And the governor of Virginia Ralph Northanger said they would need significantly higher levels of testing before they would consider lifting their that's just delusional to be making statements like that. The national level to say that we have what we need and really too, have no guidance to the state levels. Is this irresponsible because we're not area will be right back.

This episode of the railway is supported by the new Showtime original series: penny dreadful city of angels when a gruesome are shocks. Nineteen thirty, eight LOS Angeles detected Tioga Vega, his partner Louis mentioned, or find themselves grappling with nazi spies, crooked politicians and powerful supernatural forces. Natalie D Daniel of Otto Nathan Lane STAR in penny, dreadful city of angels, preparing April twenty six. Only on Showtime, the daily listeners contrive Showtime free for thirty days go to show timed out come now and intricate daily offer expires, may twenty fourth, twenty twenty here's what else you need Turner demonstrators took to the streets in several states across the country over the weekend to protest, stay at home waters that these

who destroyed the economy, I hope Whittemore understands that she's not just going to be able to rule Michigan. Unlike other politicians rule you know China, or something like that. You know where we're going to take our liberties and we're gonna, keep em and we're gonna fight for him. The protests which drew hundreds of people in Michigan Texas in North Carolina among other states or largely organised by anti government activists and libertarian brutality and were encouraged by President Trot, who took to Twitter. To urge residents to liberate their states? But pulling shows that most Americans support the locked out of reach survey by Pew Research found that sixty six percent of respondents feared that states would lift restrictions to quickly

That's it I'm not come see them off.