From the New York Times are Michael wherever this is today, a new dad is challenging the popular portrait of the Trump vote.

And revealing. Why it's the trump voter we don't talk, who may determine the outcome of the mid? It's Friday August, half naked, tell us about this poor and why you're interested in it? It's a pretty novel survey. So most poles, it call thousand people you're done with them in view instead has recruited several thousand people to take their pulls every month and so what they did was day ass people on November. Twenty. Sixteen did you over the present Howdy Philip, and they want a step further. They went match their paneless two official voter records that indicate whether someone voted or not now flash for twenty eighteen. They went back those same people and asked how do you feel about the present today? So you have a great picture. You both have a really good account of how people felt in twenty sixteen, and we can ask the same people how they feel my presence.

So most poles just go pick up. A group of people like a thousand people, ask him a question and calm discard them, and then the next poor, ass, a different group of people and so on and so on. This poor has been cut of more faithful to the same group of you and that's nice, because you know that changes you see in the poor, as of people, changing their minds, not changes, and who your ask. I think it's the best account we have of who voted for the president and how I feel about the present today of all of us out of all the pulls out there. The best way, and it may be the best we ever get so before you tell him with the term voter actually is? According to this, Pew report gives us a bit of who we tend to think that the rapporteur is right for the White House of White Male traditionally, those in rural areas, the base of the Democratic Party are implying. Hillary Clinton has not yet been able to get them, but is that changing Merkin White Working class makes up the cordial from support, but what's driving

their decision to support him over Hillary Clinton. I think the stereo type is of a white male doubt, a college degree who So, while the president that he would back him, no matter what he said or did, let me turn it around. Ask you what the recently is Microsoft, yet so what proportion of trumps voters do you think our white men without a college degree? I would add, estimate fifty percent. The few data says it is thirty three percent. Savings that two thirds of from supporters defy that stir type in at least one respect: the right of women, their college degree or their non white. So just thirty, three percent of the people voted for trumpet into does his extend our white men without a cautionary, that's right some wrong. I mean I'm pretty generous, greater by think fit these far enough that your ok. So how do you think that compares to past presidents then or pass republican nominees? Be more civic, so could be Mitt Romney could be George W Bush

became recent republican nominees, so how many white male non haulage. Educated voters backed all of those Now, what share of their voters were white men without a degree. Okay, I'm going to guess and I'll give you the explanation for each one. George W Bush had a pretty significant appeal to a spanish voters, so I'm going to guess he has slightly lower presentiment of so many guess. Twenty six, four George W Bush and I'm gonna guess thirty. Four million were Mitt Romney Romney undergo twenty five, the all around thirty to thirty five percent, and the reason is that the country is getting better and better educated overtime and more diverse. So, even though busted better among his aunt voters, there were fewer his bankers backing.

As for so there's. This weird cross cutting pattern where the country is getting better educated, but the Republicans are losing ground among them. So the Trans border is within just a few percentage points. Much the same as your standard republican border is really where thing right So where did we get this idea that

smokers are mostly non college, educated, white men or largely non college, a kid white men who will stick with the president, no matter what it must have derived from somewhere. I think it comes from a very understandable focus on how Trump won the election, and the few data shows what we recognise for a long time that Trump went over the top because he excelled among my voters, doubted agree, particularly in these midwestern battleground states where the electoral college was one and lost, and so when you try to figure out from one, it makes sense to go and visit a steel town and go to the bar and talk to white working class voters there. The Pew data, for instance, says that Trump one white working class men by fifty point margins. We need a twenty three in huge improvement for the Republicans over Mitt Romney performance and twenty twelve. But those voters are necessarily representative ultra voters. They may have been the voters. I got him over the top, but try and understand the trumpet.

None more broadly, more sociologically, or at least nationally. You wouldn't have focused so overwhelmingly on that one group. So it's absolutely correct The president from did unusually well with white men without college decrees. It's just that. That's not the whole story, not of how he did not so it seems like we ve conflated this voter, who put trump over the edge in these battleground states in twenty. Sixteen, the Non College educated white man with just the truck voter, more broadly right and that's important because, as I mentioned and important faster, this pupils are also tracking loyalty and how people support for the presidency over time and the pupil finds that yet these white working class men actually are pretty likely to remain loyal to the president to ask people to measure their support from the present on a scale from you're, the one hundred and four hundred means you're the guy in zero means you hate him and eighty nine percent of white men without a degree still rated him as a seventy, five or higher,

here is one of the present be ninety percent of their basically guaranteed supporter. I think that's fair to say, but there are other elements of the trunk coalition that are not as oil. The weakest link seems to be women with a college degree. So in this pole, fourteen percent of the White called educated women, who said they voted for the present November twenty sixteen say they have a very cold impression of him today, less than twenty five in November twenty. Sixteen, when you first ass, the pull only one percent of college. Kid women said that so we have a group of people who we know vote for the present who clearly have soured on him since then. So that's fastening. This group of voters that you're describing white educated women. We tend not to even think of them. Ass dreamt borders,

and what you are saying is, after they were, but they're starting to turn on the president. Yes, a fourteen percent of the present supporters were women with a college degree. According the few data sent a huge number, but for comparison you, ten percent of voters nationally or hispanic and plenty of time is very understandably spent. Try and understand that voting block supporting per se out of a whole national coalitions, a big number. Since we started off his conversation when you telling us that we don't really understand the trumpeters, whilst we think we do that are sensitive, just wait, Nan without calls. Degrees is not quite right at all and in fact, Our coalition, that includes groups like White College, educated women and now you're, saying that it was that group that we tend to over think about on call duty to demand that remain the most loyal and it's the group of voters Don't think about it, all who are the most vulnerable and are turning on right, and that could be a big problem for them.

Working in the mid term will be right back. Our work is giving one million dollars and talent grants to business is working to counter the ongoing impacts of cuban nineteen as the world's largest network of remote professionals, their connecting existing teams with remote experts and tech, creative and operations in an effort to help them. Lives and rebuild the economy to learn more gotta upward dot com, slash work together. We won with everything we want with women, and I love the women one with women. We won with man. I'd rather waited with women. To be honest with you know where those numbers came, how's it possible cause. I've ever heard. I was gonna win the women. I said

the women. Like me, my wife, the first lady Bulgaria said the women really like you. I like me, and I like them. How did we weren't the women? We want, the worm They wouldn't need to know about this group of voters. We tended nodded not at all when we thought about how Trump one in twenty sixteen white women with college degrees as we had into the matters in general. The Pew Data suggests that this group of White College Women voted for Trump, with more reservations than any of the other groups that supported so only eighty three percent gave him a very warm or worm rating in November, two thousand and sixteen assume that there was a race, not the president. Have largely been confirmed- and maybe these republican voters who knew they weren't gonna vote for Hillary Clinton because of all of us flaws and they gave the present a chance, but instead to say that what

we are concerned. There are made them less likely to support. The president two years ago has only been reinforced in the intervening two years you identifies. A family you're feminist. No, I wouldn't say I'm a feminist. I mean I think that would be, may be going too far. I'm I'm for women and for men and for everyone. I think. Maybe I think people have to go out. They have to go out and really do it and they have to win and that's what I and women are doing great and I'm happy now for the first time since wrong. We weigh a MAC. Has a pro life president, a prob ly. Vice President House represent twenty five from Life Republic in state capitals. That is pretty good. Health is also facing critical remark. He made the USA today about the sexual harassment claims against Roger Ale step down last month.

Had a fox news in that interview with columnist Kirsten Powers, Trump reiterated his criticism of the women who came forward to complain about ale he'd earlier said, it was very sad that women were accusing ales, but powers than asked trot what he would do of his daughter of was treated the same way. Ills alleged victims were treated Trump replied. I would like to think she would find another career or find another company if that was the case, so something as hell.

And through his presidency. How is governed that has turned reservations into dislike and they are a group that just may vote against him or the party entered a couple months right and how could that make a difference in the mid term elections and then can make a big difference. The mid term elections not like a presidential election presidential election comes down to the closest states and four bunch of reasons. It turns out that the close estates were disproportionately white and working class and twenty sixteen that's the presence biggest strength. So the president's big strength could really pay off

dates were counted like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio. You know high concentrations of white men in all those answers, white without a degree where a majority of the electorate, twenty eighty gonna come down to close districts. The closest districts in our country are mainly in the suburbs and they're pretty well educated, and many of them did vote for the president. Those are gonna be districts where the president's weaknesses are much more important and the president's strengths don't go as far so. The voters that this pool shows were most loyal to the president and twenty sixteen and made the difference frame and election are not all that important and present in these mid term districts right there less numerous in the battle round districts and they were in the battle round states. And then there is also a little additional twist, which is that historically white working class voters are less likely to vote in mid term. Elections mean why in general, just less educate, voters are less likely to turn out in lower informational actions, which is to say the ashes

The voters that, with the least loyal to present from college educated women, for example, are very important in his mid term. Districts right may also appear particularly energized in politics. They called as tight as a tick. Take a look at these results. Last night, no hires, twelve, this this is a special election. It's also heavily suburban, very highly educated, highly educated district in the entire state of Ohio in the special action we, no high earlier this week. You know, I know the democratic a little short, but the turn out in the well educated suburbs of Columbus was huge and dwarf the turn out in rural white working class from various. That's why the race in the districts of conservatives close. So that's interesting, this race that we focused on so much the Ohio special election is kind of a test case for what happens when the Trump, where we think about the most is now

at present, doesn't show up and the trumpeted. We don't think about how much is very pleasant and does show ya now, suddenly you have a district that Republicans have always one comfortably still too close to call two or three days after the election I wonder if this kind of perception issue we ve been talking about the disproportionate focus on a non college, educated male voter. If that's also mistake, that the present and the Republican Party has made and if they have governed and politics in a way that centres on this same perception that you have kind of just burst and if, in doing so, the

have alienated the voter that you are now saying is gonna, be so essential in the mid terms, I think, that's quite possible. I think that you can easily imagine a slightly different version of this presidency that isn't a hundred percent focused on reinforcing the base that tries to assuage some of the concerns of the voters, the periphery of coalition. That would be much better possessions heading into the maternal action from India COM Irena. Not that bad president should have higher brutal ratings right and so to me that India, AIDS, that the strategy that the president and other Republicans have pursued over the last two years has in Venice about one by the way. This is like the pre common problem recently, I think an american part we mean take Obama, twenty twelve, when he one there was so much focus on the Obama coalition. Young vote.

Is non white voters, hispanic voters. What did Obama do on that basis? The first big push they did was immigration reform you might remember, but I can guarantee, is that we will have in the first year and immigration build that I strongly support from then on promoting and then I want to move that forward as quickly as possible. Many remember that Sean Hannity briefly set he supported immigration or form, because the Republicans did so poorly among the spanish voters and both republican establishments decision to focus on those voters and the democratic parties decision to focus on those voters. It opened up the door to the trunk campaign in a lot of ways, because a big chunk of villars supported President Obama, twenty twelve white working class voters who want part of that narrative with republican salvation, wasn't trying to win, who the democratic and think they needed to win and now suddenly there's a big opening for someone to move and an appeal them. In other words, the trump phenomenon is built around both parties,

in too much on the group of voters who pushed someone over the edge, and then they tend to keep focusing on them in a way that leaves a whole other group of voters feeling left out. Who can then turn on Canada? I think a lot of people took for granted the idea that Democrats we're just gonna, win white working class voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio and Ireland, wherever because they had for a long time, had four in some cases the whole last century and it Lesson is that by and large the trump voter is the same as the Bush. And the same as the Romney voter and the Mccain voter and historical Republican Party weakness has been college, educated women. It actually seems kind of obvious in retrospect that to alienate that group, even further as it seems, President Trump has done, would be a meaningful problem for the party minister, diverse country

white voters. That agree today are forty six percent of eligible voters. So if you want to build a winning coalition on that group, you're going to follow a short and by the way, the present one hundred and forty six and the popular vote passed since not like, as we've established, all these voters rights without a degree. But it is to say that you know if you want to have a sample coalition american politics, it has to be brought can only be focused on policing. One group need. Thank you very much thanks Robin we won with highly educated

we won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated here's. What else you need to know today. On Thursday, the government of Puerto Rico quietly acknowledged for the first time that more than one thousand four hundred people died in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, a figure twenty times higher than its official death toll from the store for month. Puerto Rico insisted that just sixty four people died from the hurricane. With straw,

island on September twenty, but in a report posted online Thursday, the government wrote quote: although the official deaf count from the porter we go, Department of Public safety was initially sixty. Four, the toll appears to be much higher and in a ceremony in lower Manhattan on Thursday, the parents of First Lady Maloney Tromp became U S. Citizens completing a year's long journey that began when the first lady sponsored for Emily based migration from Slovenia, and is this what are known as Jane Migration,

In an interview with Times reporter, Annie Correal, a lawyer for the first, ladies parents acknowledge that the couple had relied on a system sometimes called chain migration that their son in law. President Trump says he wants to eliminate. You have somebody once said. The boy was also the deal is pretty By few about Lindsey Garrison Rachel question, any Brown Andy I x Rays, Colorado, Clare, tennis, scattered cage, cower, Michael Simon, Johnson and Jessica, with editing help from the recent

LISA Tobin is our executive produce. Samantha Hennig is our editorial director. Our technical manager is Fischer. Our engineer is crystal and our theme, music is, by Jim run Burg and Ben lands of Wonderingly special thanks to sandal, Mikhail Bouchard, Lehman guest to Stella Town and ingenious once That's it, I'm like a bull semen, Monday, zircons spent more than a decade, building con Academy, the free remote learning platform. Now,

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